Senate Weighs Repeal of California Clean Air Rules, Raising Stakes for EV Market and Public Health

The U.S. Senate is weighing whether to roll back California’s long-standing authority to set its own air quality standards. The congressional move wades into murky legal waters, with potential impacts in the Bay Area ranging from increased air pollution to fewer choices when buying a new car.

The three rules in question regulate cars, trucks and buses, pushing them to pollute less. The most buzzworthy is a ban on the sale of new gas-powered cars in the state by 2035, which President Donald Trump vehemently opposes. The other two aim to reduce pollution from heavy duty trucks and buses, and require truck makers to start selling more electric vehicles.

Earlier this month, the House of Representatives voted to rescind the Environmental Protection Agency’s approvals of the rules.

In a surprise to many environmentalists, the vote did not fall strictly along party lines: 35 House Democrats joined Republicans in supporting the repeal of California’s rules. Democrats who opposed the state’s policies cited concerns about the affordability and practicality of electric vehicles, while environmentalists questioned the potential influence of oil and gas lobbying on the vote.

As the Senate takes up California’s clean air rules, it remains unclear whether Congress has the authority to intervene — or whether California would comply with any decision lawmakers make.

The majority of California’s planet-warming emissions come from transportation — the same is true nationwide.

California has been regulating its own vehicle pollution since the 1960s, before the Clean Air Act was signed into law in 1970. Due to the state’s historically horrendous air pollution, California was granted authority to set its own emissions standards, as long as they were stricter than federal rules. The state rules would then require approval from the EPA through “waivers”  for the final stamp.

Other states can voluntarily adopt California’s rules, which a handful have done.

Congress invoked the Congressional Review Act, which allows lawmakers to undo recent regulations with a simple majority vote.

But the Senate Parliamentarian, who serves as Congress’s referee, and the Government Accountability Office, an independent agency overseeing the government, say California’s clean air waivers are outside their jurisdiction.

California’s Air Resources Board, which wrote the rules, insists Congress doesn’t have the power to take away their oversight.

“The vote does not change CARB’s authority,” CARB spokesperson David Clegern wrote in a statement. “CARB will continue its mission to protect the public health of Californians impacted by harmful air pollution,” he wrote in response to a question about whether the agency will continue to enforce its rules.

Regardless of how the Senate votes, will the state’s rules be enforced? And what will this mean for the Bay Area in the years ahead? We put the question to experts.

Uncertainty for vehicle manufacturers

The opposing positions of the national and state government create unpredictability for the companies that make vehicles.

“That creates uncertainty for industry and could help ensure that we’re burning more fossil fuel and more gas guzzlers can be produced in the meantime,” said Ethan Elkind, director of the climate program at the UC Berkeley School of Law.

Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, is not taking a stance on Congress’s actions, but he has been advocating for a pause on California’s clean vehicle regulations.

“Ninety-five percent of the manufacturers aren’t going to be able to comply when the mandate kicks in for the 2026 model year, which is happening this summer,” Maas said.

He said that as the rules get enforced, some of which require a certain percentage of vehicle sales to be zero-emission, dealers will limit the amount of gas cars and trucks they sell so they comply with regulations, making fewer gas vehicles available.

The fallout would likely impact the range of cars available for purchase at car dealerships: both gas and electric.

If California’s rules are repealed, Elkind said automakers that are not committed to electric vehicles may abandon those models. “So that means that we’ll have less choice, fewer options for electric models,” he said. And potentially higher costs.

On the other hand, if the rules are enforced, there will be “disruptions in the number and type of internal combustion engine vehicles that will be available for purchase,” Maas said.

The problem, according to Maas, is that while Californians purchase far more electric vehicles than residents of other states, demand isn’t growing at the same pace as what is required of sales of electric-vehicles written into California’s regulations, which slowly ratchets up the percentage of zero-emission vehicles that must be sold annually, starting with 35% in 2026.

Unhealthy air for overburdened communities

The longer it takes for rules reducing air pollution to go into effect, the longer communities will be breathing polluted air. East and West Oakland and Richmond are exposed to air pollution due to highways, ports and manufacturing.

“The impact is going to be felt by the low-income disadvantaged communities and communities of color,” said Roman Partida-Lopez, senior legal counsel at equity organization The Greenlining Institute. “We have an opportunity to continue to push on ensuring that we’re creating a healthier, more equitable future for our communities and by denying these waivers, we’re doing the opposite.”

One of the state’s rules addresses reducing pollution from diesel engines, which “produce a public health impact that’s 10 times greater than what gasoline engines produce,” said Ray Minjares, program director for heavy-duty vehicles at the International Council on Clean Transportation, an independent research organization.

He continued: “Diesel engines emit far higher levels of dangerous particulate matter, and other nitrogen oxide pollutants that are what contributes to heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, childhood asthma.”

Higher public transit costs

California has a rule requiring all public transit agencies to transition to zero-emission buses, with all new bus purchases mandated to be zero-emission by 2029; that rule is not one being considered for repeal. One of California’s clean air act rules that Congress is discussing impacts production of large electric vehicles, including buses.

The rule “actually increases the choices these transit bus fleets have, and it puts downward pressure on the prices that they would pay,” Minjares said. Without it, public transit agencies would have fewer and more expensive electric bus options, which could translate to higher public transit fees, he said.

Delayed deployment of electric trucks

Minjares and Elkind expressed concern that rolling back California’s rules would significantly slow the development of electric trucks, especially heavy-duty, long-haul models. While some electric passenger vehicles are nearly the same upfront price as gas cars — and likely will reach that point in the coming years — large trucks still need investment to become viable, they said.

“That market is very much in its infancy, whereas the light-duty market is much farther ahead, so we’d really be throttling the progress on clean trucks, and almost half of our smog is from trucks, from a diesel engine,” said Elkind.

Given the size of California’s market, delays in developing affordable, clean trucks would affect the entire U.S. and slow the nationwide transition to zero-emission trucks.