The biggest question hanging over the November election: Will Democrats be able to ride a blue wave of anti-Trump enthusiasm back into national political relevance?
We surveyed political insiders in California, and most of them are putting on life jackets. All 45 respondents in the Insider Track Survey—including campaign consultants, party players, lobbyists, and labor and business group reps who are California Target Book subscribers—predict that Democrats here will gain at least one congressional seat. More than a quarter of respondents say they’ll gain five seats or more.
Nationwide, Democrats need to flip 23 seats to reclaim a majority in the House of Representatives. Some of the most competitive seats are in California.
California Republicans have been hoping that Proposition 6—a ballot measure to roll back a gas tax increase passed last year by the Democratic-controlled Legislature—would insulate them from an otherwise unfavorable election environment. But a majority of the survey respondents threw cold water on that idea, too, with 53 percent forecasting that the repeal attempt will fail.