"The third thing we look at is live instant data," she says, such as the magnitude of the quake, the traffic in the area of the quake and the weather at the time of the quake.
The computer uses the information to make predictions about what would happen if an earthquake occurred in a particular area. It then uses data from past earthquakes to see whether its predictions are any good, and revises its predictive models accordingly.
In other words, it learns as it goes, which is basically how machine learning works.
Stanford University earthquake engineer Gregory Deierlein consulted for One Concern. He says one of the most remarkable things about the company's software is its ability to incorporate data from an earthquake as it's happening, and to adjust its predictions in real time.
"Those sort of things used to be research projects,"says Deierlein. "After an event, we would collect data and a few years later we'd produce new models."
Now the new models appear in a matter of minutes.
He notes the company's exact methods are opaque. "Like many startup companies they're not fully transparent in everything they're doing," he says. "I mean, that's their proprietary knowledge that they're bringing to it."
Nonetheless, some first responders are already convinced the software will be useful.
Fire chief Dan Ghiorso leads the Woodside Fire Protection District near San Francisco, which covers about 32 square miles. The San Andreas fault is only a couple hundred feet behind the firehouse.
Ghiorso says in the past, when an earthquake hit, he'd have to make educated guesses about what parts of his district might have suffered the most damage, and then drive to each place to make a visual inspection. He hopes One Concern's software will change that, although he has yet to put it to the test during an actual quake.
"Instead of driving thirty-two square miles, in fifteen minutes on a computer I can get a good idea of the concerns," he says. "Instead of me, taking my educated guess, they're putting science behind it, so I'm very confident."
Unfortunately, it's going to take a natural disaster to see if his confidence is justified.
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