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distorted 2012 map with states resized based on their electoral vote tally.","description":null,"title":"bbelectoral_custom-d606bb11d654271171c21c20deddf6e9ae145098-s800-c85","credit":"\u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/01/163632378/a-campaign-map-morphed-by-money\">Adam 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traditional swing states (in tan). Source: 270towin.org","description":null,"title":"Screen shot 2012-09-20 at 10.01.06 PM","credit":null,"status":"inherit","fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false}},"audioPlayerReducer":{"postId":"stream_live"},"authorsReducer":{"matthewgreen":{"type":"authors","id":"1263","meta":{"index":"authors_1716337520","id":"1263","found":true},"name":"Matthew Green","firstName":"Matthew","lastName":"Green","slug":"matthewgreen","email":"mgreen@kqed.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":["news"],"title":"KQED Contributor","bio":"Matthew Green is a digital media producer for KQED News. He previously produced \u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/lowdown\">The Lowdown\u003c/a>, KQED’s multimedia news education blog. Matthew's written for numerous Bay Area publications, including the Oakland Tribune and San Francisco Chronicle. He also taught journalism classes at Fremont High School in East Oakland.\r\n\r\nEmail: mgreen@kqed.org; Twitter: @MGreenKQED","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3bf498d1267ca02c8494f33d8cfc575e?s=600&d=mm&r=g","twitter":"MGreenKQED","facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"news","roles":["administrator"]},{"site":"lowdown","roles":["administrator"]},{"site":"stateofhealth","roles":["author"]},{"site":"science","roles":["administrator"]},{"site":"education","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"forum","roles":["administrator"]},{"site":"elections","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"liveblog","roles":["editor"]}],"headData":{"title":"Matthew Green | KQED","description":"KQED Contributor","ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3bf498d1267ca02c8494f33d8cfc575e?s=600&d=mm&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3bf498d1267ca02c8494f33d8cfc575e?s=600&d=mm&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/matthewgreen"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"lowdown_24439":{"type":"posts","id":"lowdown_24439","meta":{"index":"posts_1716263798","site":"lowdown","id":"24439","score":null,"sort":[1482026457000]},"parent":0,"labelTerm":{"site":"lowdown"},"blocks":[],"publishDate":1482026457,"format":"standard","disqusTitle":"How the Electoral College Could -- But Won't -- Stop Trump from Becoming President (with Lesson Plan)","title":"How the Electoral College Could -- But Won't -- Stop Trump from Becoming President (with Lesson Plan)","headTitle":"The Lowdown | KQED News","content":"\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003cdiv>\u003cspan style=\"font-size: x-large;\">\u003cspan style=\"color: #993300;\">Teach with the Lowdown\u003c/span>\u003c/span>\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignnone wp-image-22868\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680-400x143.jpg\" width=\"340\" height=\"122\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680-400x143.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680-800x286.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680-768x274.jpg 768w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680.jpg 957w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 340px) 100vw, 340px\">Suggestions for nonfiction analysis, writing/discussion prompts and multimedia projects. Browse our lesson plan collection \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/category/lesson-plans-and-guides/\" target=\"_blank\">here\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2016/11/Electoral-college-lesson-plan.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Lesson Plan: Debating the Electoral College (PDF)\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp style=\"text-align: left;\">The real presidential election happens on Monday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"text-align: left;\">No foolin'!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That's when 538 members of the Electoral College meet in their respective state capitols to cast votes for the next president. It's these folks, not the presidential candidates, who we actually voted for on Election Day; they're the ones charged with representing the lot of us in picking the next president. The winner is then officially declared during a joint session of Congress on January 6.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During most election years, this process is little more than a blip on the radar, a largely symbolic event that receives little public attention. Typically, the electors merely reaffirm the will of the voters and make the results official.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the 2016 Election has been anything but typical.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To start, President-elect Donald Trump didn't win the popular vote; nearly 3 million more people voted for his opponent Hillary Clinton. Trump was also an unusually controversial and divisive candidate, whose fiery, racially-infused campaign rhetoric emboldened white nationalists and other hate groups. Critics label him a dangerous trickster with no government experience and deep financial conflicts of interest who poses a serious threat to America's democratic institutions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add to this, the flurry of recent headlines pointing to further evidence that Russia did indeed \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-blames-putins-personal-grudge-against-her-for-election-interference/2016/12/16/12f36250-c3be-11e6-8422-eac61c0ef74d_story.html?utm_term=.d290f248b12b\" target=\"_blank\">interfere in the election\u003c/a>, in part to help Donald Trump win the White House, a longstanding allegation now supported by both the CIA and FBI.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As such, opponents are waging a last-ditch effort to block Trump's election, imploring electors to vote their conscience and choose someone -- anyone -- other than him. For weeks, electors have been besieged by emails, phone calls and even a \u003ca href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/12/14/celebrities_led_by_martin_sheen_beg_republican_electors_not_to_vote_for_trump.html\" target=\"_blank\">celebrity video plea\u003c/a>. But for that to happen, at least 37 electors in states that Trump won would have to abandon their party's nominee, denying him the requisite 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One Republican elector in Texas has already publicly announced \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/07/politics/texas-elector-says-he-still-wont-vote-trump/\" target=\"_blank\">his decision \u003c/a>to not support Trump. And electors in three states have gone to court for the authority to vote as they please.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, the prospect of that many electors turning their backs on Trump is highly unlikely. But constitutionally, it remains possible. And that's giving Trump's opponents enough hope to keep fighting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some background ...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That was a \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266038556504494082\" target=\"_blank\">tweet\u003c/a> from Donald Trump on the eve of the 2012 election after it was predicted that President Obama would win the electoral vote despite possibly losing the popular vote to Mitt Romney (which he didn't).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He also tweeted: \"We can't let this happen. We should march on Washington and stop this travesty. Our nation is totally divided!\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266038556504494082\">November 7, 2012\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>\u003cscript src=\"//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\">\u003c/script>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But what a difference four years can make. Trump has since had a dramatic change of heart.\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\u003cp>The Electoral College is actually genius in that it brings all states, including the smaller ones, into play. Campaigning is much different!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/798521053551140864\">November 15, 2016\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>After all, he has the Electoral College to thank for his unexpected victory, one of the biggest political upsets in U.S. history.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trump won the race despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by what will likely be more than 2 million votes, after all the returns are counted, according to a \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/opinion/clintons-substantial-popular-vote-win.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">New York Times estimate\u003c/a>. As of Tuesday, Clinton was ahead by \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/2016/11/22/503052632/two-weeks-after-election-day-california-continues-counting-ballots\" target=\"_blank\">almost 1.75 million votes\u003c/a>, with at least 2 million ballots still to be counted in Democrat-heavy California. That makes Trump the unlikely beneficiary of a confounding election process that, as a candidate, he consistently claimed was \"rigged\" against him.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://youtu.be/UvzARzuxvbM\u003c/p>\n\u003ch4>Electoral math\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>So how, in the most famous democracy in the world, where everyone's vote is considered equal and the majority supposedly rules, is the loser of the national popular vote able to win the presidency?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bottom line, Trump might not have gotten the most votes, but he won them in the places that counted most -- albeit, by razor-thin margins. At the end of the day, Trump prevailed in most of the large, crucial battleground states, including Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, all of which went for Obama in the last two presidential elections. It’s no coincidence that the candidates spent an inordinate amount of time on the campaign trail in this handful of “swing states,” which ultimately decided the election. So, at the end of the day, regardless of how many more popular votes Clinton received, she won only 232 electoral votes to Trump’s 306 (assuming Michigan, which still hasn’t finalized its vote count, goes his way).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is only the fifth time that the winner of the presidential election has lost the popular vote, but it’s also the second in less than 20 years: The last time, of course, was the hotly contested 2000 election, which Al Gore narrowly lost to George W. Bush despite winning more popular votes. And as happened then, the outcome of the 2016 contest has again renewed a chorus of demands to reform or flat-out eliminate a system that critics consider outdated and squarely undemocratic.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch4>Some democracy, but not too much\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>The electoral process is all based on a set of rules drawn up more than 200 years ago by the founding fathers, a group of brilliant, wealthy white men who sought to create a system of government that reflected the will of the people ... but only up to a point. Give the voters (who at that point were limited to other wealthy white men) decision-making power, but keep that power in check in case they don't choose wisely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://youtu.be/Z9v9PEng7Xo\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the framers were pretty apprehensive about the idea of a direct democracy; the people should have power but not too much power. In the Constitution, they laid out a system of representative democracy, in which the people don’t make the big decisions themselves, but rather vote for qualified representatives to decide for them. As it is with Congress and the Senate, it's also the rationale behind the Electoral College, the system we still use to elect the president.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the breakout Broadway star and Founding Father Alexander Hamilton wrote in \"\u003ca href=\"http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed68.asp\">The Federalist Papers: No. 68\u003c/a>,\" the purpose of the Electoral College is to preserve “the sense of the people,” while also ensuring that a president is chosen “by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He continues: “The process of election affords a moral certainty, that the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications. Talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity, may alone suffice to elevate a man to the first honors in a single State; but it will require other talents, and a different kind of merit, to establish him in the esteem and confidence of the whole Union, or of so considerable a portion of it as would be necessary to make him a successful candidate for the distinguished office of President of the United States.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch4>Vestige of slavery\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>Some constitutional scholars note that slavery was also a major impetus for the creation of the Electoral College and the method of legislative apportionment. When the Constitution was drafted in 1787, a large majority of the nation’s fledgling citizenry lived in northern cities like Philadelphia and Boston, dwarfing the white population of the agrarian South. To give the South more influence, James Madison and other influential slave-holding members of the Constitutional Convention advocated for counting slaves, who made up an \u003ca href=\"https://books.google.com/books?id=6gbQHxb_P0QC&lpg=RA3-PA358&dq=three-fifths%20compromise%20%2240%20percent%22&pg=RA3-PA358#v=onepage&q=three-fifths%20compromise%20%2240%20percent%22&f=falsehttp://www.crf-usa.org/black-history-month/the-constitution-and-slavery\" target=\"_blank\">estimated 40 percent\u003c/a> of the South’s population.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Michael Klarman, a Harvard Law School professor, explains in \"\u003ca href=\"https://www.amazon.com/Framers-Coup-Making-United-Constitution/dp/019994203X\" target=\"_blank\">The Framer’s Coup\u003c/a>,\" the framers “rejected direct election of the president mostly because they distrusted the people and because Southern slaves would not count in a direct vote.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the famously reached compromise, the framers determined that each slave would be counted as \u003ca href=\"http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/electoral-college-has-been-divisive-day-one-180961171/\" target=\"_blank\">three-fifths\u003c/a> of a person, a major power grab for Southern states, which were guaranteed much stronger national influence.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Klarman concludes: “The malapportionment in the Electoral College, which never had a very good justification, continues to exert influence today.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch4>A brief electoral refresher\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>OK, so if you happened to snooze through high school government class, here’s a quick and dirty Electoral College refresher (for a more detailed explainer on the process, check out \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/2016/10/13/what-is-the-electoral-college-and-is-it-time-to-get-rid-of-it/\" target=\"_blank\">this earlier piece\u003c/a>):\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Americans go to the polls to “elect” a president, they’re not actually voting for the president, but rather a particular \u003ca href=\"http://www.politico.com/magazine/thepeoplewhopickthepresident/2016\" target=\"_blank\">slate of electors\u003c/a>, a somewhat random assortment of state party insiders, donors, and in some cases, fringe activists who have pledged to support the candidate from their party who wins the most votes in that state. The magic number is 270: Get that many electoral votes and you’re in the White House.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The number of electors in each state is based on the size of its congressional delegation (U.S. senators and representatives), which in turn is based on the state’s population. However, this has become a point of contention. Because every state, no matter how small, is guaranteed at least three electors (based on a minimum of two senators and one representative), a vote in sparsely populated states like Wyoming or North Dakota is technically worth more than a vote in crowded states like California or New York. (\u003ca href=\"https://thenib.com/the-electoral-college-isn-t-working-here-s-how-it-might-die\" target=\"_blank\">This cartoon\u003c/a> by Andy Warner nicely illustrates the concept).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The electors then meet in their respective states 41 days after the general election (this year, it will be on Dec. 19), where they cast a ballot for the president and a second for vice president. As expressed by Hamilton, the founders envisioned the Electoral College consisting of statewide groups of deliberative bodies who would carefully consider the wisdom of the people’s choice, but be willing and empowered to change course if they deemed that choice foolhardy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In modern-day elections, however, this process has largely become a formality. Unlike Hamilton's vision, the electors who represent us today are all but anonymous; even the most informed voters would likely be hard-pressed to know who their state electors are. (If you are curious about this, check out Politico's interesting guide to \"\u003ca href=\"http://www.politico.com/magazine/thepeoplewhopickthepresident/2016\" target=\"_blank\">The People Who Pick the President\u003c/a>\".) In fact, it can be argued that much of today's system bears little resemblance to the way the founders envisioned it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In every state except for Maine and Nebraska, the candidate who wins the most votes (that is, a plurality) is supposed to receive all of that state’s electoral votes, regardless of how narrow the victory. It’s a winner-take-all system, which means that candidates may win some states by wide margins (as did Donald Trump in most Southern states like Tennessee and Alabama) and others by very slim ones (as he did in Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). And that’s what made it possible for Trump to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Defenders of the Electoral College argue that it forces candidates to pay attention to a wider swath of the country rather than focusing exclusively on densely populated urban centers. Advocates also say that the electoral system keeps presidential elections efficient, preventing the massive task of having to conduct a national recount in a close race.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\u003ciframe src=\"https://www.wnyc.org/widgets/ondemand_player/takeaway/#file=/audio/json/680147/&share=1\" width=\"100%\" height=\"130\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/aside>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003ch4>Calls for reform\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>But in the wake of this election, a growing chorus of discontented citizens are pushing against the status quo.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One \u003ca href=\"https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19\" target=\"_blank\">online petition\u003c/a> has already gathered more than 4.5 million signatures since the election. It urges electors from some of the states Trump won to cast their electoral votes for Hillary Clinton.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Mr. Trump is unfit to serve,” the petition states. “Secretary Clinton WON THE POPULAR VOTE and should be President.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although electors in some states are required to take a pledge to support their party’s presidential and vice presidential nominees – and some states can even replace or fine so-called faithless electors up to $1,000 for not voting for in line, there is no actual “Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their states,” according to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/electors.html\" target=\"_blank\">National Archives and Records Administration\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There have been a total of 157 faithless electors in U.S. history, according to the group \u003ca href=\"http://www.fairvote.org/faithless_electors\">FairVote\u003c/a> (which notes that 71 of those votes were changed because the original candidate died before the votes were cast). None has ever been prosecuted for failing to vote as pledged. And \u003ca href=\"http://www.factcheck.org/2016/11/could-electoral-college-elect-clinton/\">more than 20 states\u003c/a> have no state law or required pledge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So technically, this could happen. But don’t hold your breath. At least 38 Republican electors would need to switch party allegiances to give Clinton the necessary 270 votes. You probably have a better chance of winning the Powerball lottery than seeing that happen. And even if there were enough Republican defectors to deny Trump the necessary 270 votes, they almost certainly would vote for another Republican candidate over Clinton. On the incredibly slight off-chance that neither candidate won 270 votes, the election would be decided by the Republican-controlled Congress.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among the growing cadre of Electoral College critics (who are mostly Democrats), many are calling for changes to future elections. They include outgoing Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-California) who last week introduced \"Hail Mary\" legislation to eliminate the Electoral College altogether in favor of the popular vote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is the only office in the land where you can get more votes and still lose the presidency,\" she said in \u003ca href=\"https://www.boxer.senate.gov/?p=release&id=3355http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/opinion/clintons-substantial-popular-vote-win.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">a press release\u003c/a>. \"The Electoral College is an outdated, undemocratic system that does not reflect our modern society, and it needs to change immediately. Every American should be guaranteed that their vote counts.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The legislation calls for amending the Constitution, which would require a two-thirds majority vote in both the House and Senate, and ratification by three-fourths of the states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Not likely to happen anytime soon.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such discontent with the system is nothing new. There have been more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/faq.html\" target=\"_blank\">700 proposed constitutional amendments\u003c/a> to either “reform or eliminate” the Electoral College in the last 200 years. Obviously, none have been successful. But some have come close: In 1969, an \u003ca href=\"https://library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/document.php?id=cqal70-1291702\" target=\"_blank\">amendment \u003c/a>to abolish was endorsed by President Richard Nixon, and passed overwhelmingly in the House (338 to 70), but was ultimately filibustered and killed in the Senate.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch4>State's take action\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the most realistic hopes for reformers is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/\">National Popular Vote Interstate Compact\u003c/a>, an agreement among states to give all their respective electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the national popular vote. Since 2006, when the agreement was drafted, 10 mostly Democratic states and the District of Columbia have joined, amounting to 165 electoral votes. Legislation is also pending in Michigan and Pennsylvania (which would add another 36 votes). The agreement, though, would only take effect when enough states sign on to amount to 270 electoral votes, guaranteeing that the winner of the popular vote would also win the election.\u003c/p>\n\n","disqusIdentifier":"24439 http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/?p=24439","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/2016/12/17/is-it-time-for-the-u-s-to-graduate-from-the-electoral-college-with-lesson-plan/","stats":{"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"hasAudio":false,"hasPolis":false,"wordCount":2667,"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"iframeSrcs":["https://www.wnyc.org/widgets/ondemand_player/takeaway/#file=/audio/json/680147/&share=1"],"paragraphCount":53},"modified":1482303846,"excerpt":null,"headData":{"twImgId":"","twTitle":"","ogTitle":"","ogImgId":"","twDescription":"","description":"","title":"How the Electoral College Could -- But Won't -- Stop Trump from Becoming President (with Lesson Plan) | KQED","ogDescription":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"How the Electoral College Could -- But Won't -- Stop Trump from Becoming President (with Lesson Plan)","datePublished":"2016-12-17T18:00:57-08:00","dateModified":"2016-12-20T23:04:06-08:00","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"is-it-time-for-the-u-s-to-graduate-from-the-electoral-college-with-lesson-plan","status":"publish","path":"/lowdown/24439/is-it-time-for-the-u-s-to-graduate-from-the-electoral-college-with-lesson-plan","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003cdiv>\u003cspan style=\"font-size: x-large;\">\u003cspan style=\"color: #993300;\">Teach with the Lowdown\u003c/span>\u003c/span>\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignnone wp-image-22868\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680-400x143.jpg\" width=\"340\" height=\"122\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680-400x143.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680-800x286.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680-768x274.jpg 768w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/26/2016/07/hands-e1469568663680.jpg 957w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 340px) 100vw, 340px\">Suggestions for nonfiction analysis, writing/discussion prompts and multimedia projects. Browse our lesson plan collection \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/category/lesson-plans-and-guides/\" target=\"_blank\">here\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2016/11/Electoral-college-lesson-plan.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Lesson Plan: Debating the Electoral College (PDF)\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp style=\"text-align: left;\">The real presidential election happens on Monday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"text-align: left;\">No foolin'!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That's when 538 members of the Electoral College meet in their respective state capitols to cast votes for the next president. It's these folks, not the presidential candidates, who we actually voted for on Election Day; they're the ones charged with representing the lot of us in picking the next president. The winner is then officially declared during a joint session of Congress on January 6.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During most election years, this process is little more than a blip on the radar, a largely symbolic event that receives little public attention. Typically, the electors merely reaffirm the will of the voters and make the results official.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the 2016 Election has been anything but typical.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To start, President-elect Donald Trump didn't win the popular vote; nearly 3 million more people voted for his opponent Hillary Clinton. Trump was also an unusually controversial and divisive candidate, whose fiery, racially-infused campaign rhetoric emboldened white nationalists and other hate groups. Critics label him a dangerous trickster with no government experience and deep financial conflicts of interest who poses a serious threat to America's democratic institutions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add to this, the flurry of recent headlines pointing to further evidence that Russia did indeed \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-blames-putins-personal-grudge-against-her-for-election-interference/2016/12/16/12f36250-c3be-11e6-8422-eac61c0ef74d_story.html?utm_term=.d290f248b12b\" target=\"_blank\">interfere in the election\u003c/a>, in part to help Donald Trump win the White House, a longstanding allegation now supported by both the CIA and FBI.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As such, opponents are waging a last-ditch effort to block Trump's election, imploring electors to vote their conscience and choose someone -- anyone -- other than him. For weeks, electors have been besieged by emails, phone calls and even a \u003ca href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/12/14/celebrities_led_by_martin_sheen_beg_republican_electors_not_to_vote_for_trump.html\" target=\"_blank\">celebrity video plea\u003c/a>. But for that to happen, at least 37 electors in states that Trump won would have to abandon their party's nominee, denying him the requisite 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One Republican elector in Texas has already publicly announced \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/07/politics/texas-elector-says-he-still-wont-vote-trump/\" target=\"_blank\">his decision \u003c/a>to not support Trump. And electors in three states have gone to court for the authority to vote as they please.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, the prospect of that many electors turning their backs on Trump is highly unlikely. But constitutionally, it remains possible. And that's giving Trump's opponents enough hope to keep fighting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some background ...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That was a \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266038556504494082\" target=\"_blank\">tweet\u003c/a> from Donald Trump on the eve of the 2012 election after it was predicted that President Obama would win the electoral vote despite possibly losing the popular vote to Mitt Romney (which he didn't).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He also tweeted: \"We can't let this happen. We should march on Washington and stop this travesty. Our nation is totally divided!\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266038556504494082\">November 7, 2012\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>\u003cscript src=\"//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\">\u003c/script>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But what a difference four years can make. Trump has since had a dramatic change of heart.\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\u003cp>The Electoral College is actually genius in that it brings all states, including the smaller ones, into play. Campaigning is much different!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/798521053551140864\">November 15, 2016\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>After all, he has the Electoral College to thank for his unexpected victory, one of the biggest political upsets in U.S. history.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trump won the race despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by what will likely be more than 2 million votes, after all the returns are counted, according to a \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/opinion/clintons-substantial-popular-vote-win.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">New York Times estimate\u003c/a>. As of Tuesday, Clinton was ahead by \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/2016/11/22/503052632/two-weeks-after-election-day-california-continues-counting-ballots\" target=\"_blank\">almost 1.75 million votes\u003c/a>, with at least 2 million ballots still to be counted in Democrat-heavy California. That makes Trump the unlikely beneficiary of a confounding election process that, as a candidate, he consistently claimed was \"rigged\" against him.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/UvzARzuxvbM'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/UvzARzuxvbM'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003ch4>Electoral math\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>So how, in the most famous democracy in the world, where everyone's vote is considered equal and the majority supposedly rules, is the loser of the national popular vote able to win the presidency?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bottom line, Trump might not have gotten the most votes, but he won them in the places that counted most -- albeit, by razor-thin margins. At the end of the day, Trump prevailed in most of the large, crucial battleground states, including Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, all of which went for Obama in the last two presidential elections. It’s no coincidence that the candidates spent an inordinate amount of time on the campaign trail in this handful of “swing states,” which ultimately decided the election. So, at the end of the day, regardless of how many more popular votes Clinton received, she won only 232 electoral votes to Trump’s 306 (assuming Michigan, which still hasn’t finalized its vote count, goes his way).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is only the fifth time that the winner of the presidential election has lost the popular vote, but it’s also the second in less than 20 years: The last time, of course, was the hotly contested 2000 election, which Al Gore narrowly lost to George W. Bush despite winning more popular votes. And as happened then, the outcome of the 2016 contest has again renewed a chorus of demands to reform or flat-out eliminate a system that critics consider outdated and squarely undemocratic.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch4>Some democracy, but not too much\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>The electoral process is all based on a set of rules drawn up more than 200 years ago by the founding fathers, a group of brilliant, wealthy white men who sought to create a system of government that reflected the will of the people ... but only up to a point. Give the voters (who at that point were limited to other wealthy white men) decision-making power, but keep that power in check in case they don't choose wisely.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/Z9v9PEng7Xo'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/Z9v9PEng7Xo'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cp>In other words, the framers were pretty apprehensive about the idea of a direct democracy; the people should have power but not too much power. In the Constitution, they laid out a system of representative democracy, in which the people don’t make the big decisions themselves, but rather vote for qualified representatives to decide for them. As it is with Congress and the Senate, it's also the rationale behind the Electoral College, the system we still use to elect the president.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the breakout Broadway star and Founding Father Alexander Hamilton wrote in \"\u003ca href=\"http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed68.asp\">The Federalist Papers: No. 68\u003c/a>,\" the purpose of the Electoral College is to preserve “the sense of the people,” while also ensuring that a president is chosen “by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He continues: “The process of election affords a moral certainty, that the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications. Talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity, may alone suffice to elevate a man to the first honors in a single State; but it will require other talents, and a different kind of merit, to establish him in the esteem and confidence of the whole Union, or of so considerable a portion of it as would be necessary to make him a successful candidate for the distinguished office of President of the United States.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch4>Vestige of slavery\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>Some constitutional scholars note that slavery was also a major impetus for the creation of the Electoral College and the method of legislative apportionment. When the Constitution was drafted in 1787, a large majority of the nation’s fledgling citizenry lived in northern cities like Philadelphia and Boston, dwarfing the white population of the agrarian South. To give the South more influence, James Madison and other influential slave-holding members of the Constitutional Convention advocated for counting slaves, who made up an \u003ca href=\"https://books.google.com/books?id=6gbQHxb_P0QC&lpg=RA3-PA358&dq=three-fifths%20compromise%20%2240%20percent%22&pg=RA3-PA358#v=onepage&q=three-fifths%20compromise%20%2240%20percent%22&f=falsehttp://www.crf-usa.org/black-history-month/the-constitution-and-slavery\" target=\"_blank\">estimated 40 percent\u003c/a> of the South’s population.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Michael Klarman, a Harvard Law School professor, explains in \"\u003ca href=\"https://www.amazon.com/Framers-Coup-Making-United-Constitution/dp/019994203X\" target=\"_blank\">The Framer’s Coup\u003c/a>,\" the framers “rejected direct election of the president mostly because they distrusted the people and because Southern slaves would not count in a direct vote.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the famously reached compromise, the framers determined that each slave would be counted as \u003ca href=\"http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/electoral-college-has-been-divisive-day-one-180961171/\" target=\"_blank\">three-fifths\u003c/a> of a person, a major power grab for Southern states, which were guaranteed much stronger national influence.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Klarman concludes: “The malapportionment in the Electoral College, which never had a very good justification, continues to exert influence today.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch4>A brief electoral refresher\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>OK, so if you happened to snooze through high school government class, here’s a quick and dirty Electoral College refresher (for a more detailed explainer on the process, check out \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/2016/10/13/what-is-the-electoral-college-and-is-it-time-to-get-rid-of-it/\" target=\"_blank\">this earlier piece\u003c/a>):\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Americans go to the polls to “elect” a president, they’re not actually voting for the president, but rather a particular \u003ca href=\"http://www.politico.com/magazine/thepeoplewhopickthepresident/2016\" target=\"_blank\">slate of electors\u003c/a>, a somewhat random assortment of state party insiders, donors, and in some cases, fringe activists who have pledged to support the candidate from their party who wins the most votes in that state. The magic number is 270: Get that many electoral votes and you’re in the White House.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The number of electors in each state is based on the size of its congressional delegation (U.S. senators and representatives), which in turn is based on the state’s population. However, this has become a point of contention. Because every state, no matter how small, is guaranteed at least three electors (based on a minimum of two senators and one representative), a vote in sparsely populated states like Wyoming or North Dakota is technically worth more than a vote in crowded states like California or New York. (\u003ca href=\"https://thenib.com/the-electoral-college-isn-t-working-here-s-how-it-might-die\" target=\"_blank\">This cartoon\u003c/a> by Andy Warner nicely illustrates the concept).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The electors then meet in their respective states 41 days after the general election (this year, it will be on Dec. 19), where they cast a ballot for the president and a second for vice president. As expressed by Hamilton, the founders envisioned the Electoral College consisting of statewide groups of deliberative bodies who would carefully consider the wisdom of the people’s choice, but be willing and empowered to change course if they deemed that choice foolhardy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In modern-day elections, however, this process has largely become a formality. Unlike Hamilton's vision, the electors who represent us today are all but anonymous; even the most informed voters would likely be hard-pressed to know who their state electors are. (If you are curious about this, check out Politico's interesting guide to \"\u003ca href=\"http://www.politico.com/magazine/thepeoplewhopickthepresident/2016\" target=\"_blank\">The People Who Pick the President\u003c/a>\".) In fact, it can be argued that much of today's system bears little resemblance to the way the founders envisioned it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In every state except for Maine and Nebraska, the candidate who wins the most votes (that is, a plurality) is supposed to receive all of that state’s electoral votes, regardless of how narrow the victory. It’s a winner-take-all system, which means that candidates may win some states by wide margins (as did Donald Trump in most Southern states like Tennessee and Alabama) and others by very slim ones (as he did in Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). And that’s what made it possible for Trump to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Defenders of the Electoral College argue that it forces candidates to pay attention to a wider swath of the country rather than focusing exclusively on densely populated urban centers. Advocates also say that the electoral system keeps presidential elections efficient, preventing the massive task of having to conduct a national recount in a close race.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\u003ciframe src=\"https://www.wnyc.org/widgets/ondemand_player/takeaway/#file=/audio/json/680147/&share=1\" width=\"100%\" height=\"130\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/aside>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003ch4>Calls for reform\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>But in the wake of this election, a growing chorus of discontented citizens are pushing against the status quo.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One \u003ca href=\"https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19\" target=\"_blank\">online petition\u003c/a> has already gathered more than 4.5 million signatures since the election. It urges electors from some of the states Trump won to cast their electoral votes for Hillary Clinton.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Mr. Trump is unfit to serve,” the petition states. “Secretary Clinton WON THE POPULAR VOTE and should be President.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although electors in some states are required to take a pledge to support their party’s presidential and vice presidential nominees – and some states can even replace or fine so-called faithless electors up to $1,000 for not voting for in line, there is no actual “Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their states,” according to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/electors.html\" target=\"_blank\">National Archives and Records Administration\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There have been a total of 157 faithless electors in U.S. history, according to the group \u003ca href=\"http://www.fairvote.org/faithless_electors\">FairVote\u003c/a> (which notes that 71 of those votes were changed because the original candidate died before the votes were cast). None has ever been prosecuted for failing to vote as pledged. And \u003ca href=\"http://www.factcheck.org/2016/11/could-electoral-college-elect-clinton/\">more than 20 states\u003c/a> have no state law or required pledge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So technically, this could happen. But don’t hold your breath. At least 38 Republican electors would need to switch party allegiances to give Clinton the necessary 270 votes. You probably have a better chance of winning the Powerball lottery than seeing that happen. And even if there were enough Republican defectors to deny Trump the necessary 270 votes, they almost certainly would vote for another Republican candidate over Clinton. On the incredibly slight off-chance that neither candidate won 270 votes, the election would be decided by the Republican-controlled Congress.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among the growing cadre of Electoral College critics (who are mostly Democrats), many are calling for changes to future elections. They include outgoing Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-California) who last week introduced \"Hail Mary\" legislation to eliminate the Electoral College altogether in favor of the popular vote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is the only office in the land where you can get more votes and still lose the presidency,\" she said in \u003ca href=\"https://www.boxer.senate.gov/?p=release&id=3355http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/opinion/clintons-substantial-popular-vote-win.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">a press release\u003c/a>. \"The Electoral College is an outdated, undemocratic system that does not reflect our modern society, and it needs to change immediately. Every American should be guaranteed that their vote counts.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The legislation calls for amending the Constitution, which would require a two-thirds majority vote in both the House and Senate, and ratification by three-fourths of the states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Not likely to happen anytime soon.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such discontent with the system is nothing new. There have been more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/faq.html\" target=\"_blank\">700 proposed constitutional amendments\u003c/a> to either “reform or eliminate” the Electoral College in the last 200 years. Obviously, none have been successful. But some have come close: In 1969, an \u003ca href=\"https://library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/document.php?id=cqal70-1291702\" target=\"_blank\">amendment \u003c/a>to abolish was endorsed by President Richard Nixon, and passed overwhelmingly in the House (338 to 70), but was ultimately filibustered and killed in the Senate.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch4>State's take action\u003c/h4>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the most realistic hopes for reformers is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/\">National Popular Vote Interstate Compact\u003c/a>, an agreement among states to give all their respective electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the national popular vote. Since 2006, when the agreement was drafted, 10 mostly Democratic states and the District of Columbia have joined, amounting to 165 electoral votes. Legislation is also pending in Michigan and Pennsylvania (which would add another 36 votes). The agreement, though, would only take effect when enough states sign on to amount to 270 electoral votes, guaranteeing that the winner of the popular vote would also win the election.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/lowdown/24439/is-it-time-for-the-u-s-to-graduate-from-the-electoral-college-with-lesson-plan","authors":["1263"],"categories":["lowdown_2498","lowdown_2398","lowdown_2399","lowdown_2391"],"tags":["lowdown_173","lowdown_2337","lowdown_2575"],"featImg":"lowdown_24893","label":"lowdown"},"lowdown_3825":{"type":"posts","id":"lowdown_3825","meta":{"index":"posts_1716263798","site":"lowdown","id":"3825","score":null,"sort":[1476414103000]},"parent":0,"labelTerm":{"site":"lowdown"},"blocks":[],"publishDate":1476414103,"format":"aside","disqusTitle":"EXPLAINER: What's the Deal With the Electoral College?","title":"EXPLAINER: What's the Deal With the Electoral College?","headTitle":"The Lowdown | KQED News","content":"\u003cp>https://youtu.be/O1DeSLZkPrg\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated Oct. 28, 2020\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here's a little factual nugget that never fails to baffle:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>American voters DO NOT directly elect the president.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yes, you read that correctly: the U.S. president is not chosen through a one-person, one-vote system of direct democracy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When voters head to the polls on Election Day to select the next president, they're not actually voting for any one person. Instead, they're throwing their support behind a group of \"electors\" who belong to a strange institution called the \u003ca href=\"http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Electoral College\u003c/a>. And it's this mysterious group of 538 members that directly casts the actual votes to determine who the next president will be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Don't believe me? Check out \u003ca href=\"http://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/articles/article-ii\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Article II, Section I \u003c/a>of the U.S. Constitution. Says it right there. Honest.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>What is the Electoral College?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>During presidential elections, state political parties select a group of \"electors.\" These are usually committed party activists who have pledged to support their party's presidential candidate should he or she win the state's popular vote.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>How many electors does each state get?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>It's based on a simple equation: each state's total number of congressional representatives plus its two senators. Every state (and Washington, D.C.) is guaranteed at least three electoral votes. A sparsely populated state like North Dakota - which has two senators but only one congressional representative - gets just three electoral votes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the other end of the spectrum is crowded California, which gets 55 electoral votes (equal to its 53 congressional representatives and two senators).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Interestingly -- and controversially -- the more than four million people living in U.S. territories like Puerto Rico and Guam get no electors. And although most residents of these territories are citizens and can participate in their party's presidential primaries, they have no influence in the general election.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>How does a presidential candidate win electors?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>The presidential election is a grueling state-by-state battle, and in almost every one of those states, it's a winner-take-all scenario. That means the candidate who receives the most popular votes -- the plurality -- in each state, gets all that state's Republican or Democratic electors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That's bad news for the other candidates in the race: even if they lose the popular vote by a single votes, they walk away from that state empty-handed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And that's why California and other very populous states like New York, Texas, and Florida are political jackpots: they have so many delicious electors for the taking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As if this wasn't complicated enough, there are actually two states that follow different rules. Maine and Nebraska use a proportional system, in which two electors are chosen by statewide popular vote and the remaining electors are decided by popular vote within each congressional district.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Why is 270 the magic number to win the race?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>There are 538 electors nationwide, and to win the presidency, a candidate needs just over half - or 270 of them. So, if you win a state like California (even if you win it by a single measly vote), you've just secured about 20 percent of the votes you need to be sitting pretty in the White House come January.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Conversely, presidential candidates on the campaign trail generally don't spend too much time in relatively underpopulated states like the Dakotas, where electors are scarce. You also probably won't find them campaigning too much in big but generally politically predictable states like Democratic-leaning California or Republican-leaning Texas. It's the big swing states (a.k.a. the battleground states) - like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Virginia - where they'll likely be spending most of their time as the election nears. These are the states that are still up for grabs and chock full of electors; the one's that usually decide the election.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.270towin.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">270 To Win\u003c/a> provides good interactive maps allowing users to simulate different outcomes. It also shows state-by-state breakdowns and results from previous presidential elections.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://youtu.be/hlQE4IGFc5A\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>And what if neither candidate gets to 270 electoral votes?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>The chances of this happening are incredibly slim, but if it did, the House of Representatives would elect the next president from a pool of the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation has one vote. The Senate would then elect the vice president, with each Senator casting a vote. This has only happened once: in the \u003ca href=\"http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/congress-decides-outcome-of-presidential-election\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">1824 presidential election\u003c/a>, Andrew Jackson won the most popular votes and led the pack in electoral votes. But because it was a competitive race among four candidates, Jackson fell short of winning the requisite electoral majority. Congress decided the outcome, and ultimately elected Jackson's rival John Quincy Adams.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>When do electors cast their official votes?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Oddly, it's not until about a month after Election Day. On the Monday following the second Wednesday of December (stay with me here), each state's electors meet in their respective state capitals and cast their votes -- one for president and one for vice president. This event never really gets a whole lot of attention because everyone already knows that those electors are almost certainly going to vote for the candidate in their own party. The results are announced the first week in January and the president is sworn in two weeks later.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Technically, electors \u003cem>can\u003c/em> change their minds, but it's only happened a \u003ca href=\"http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,55439,00.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">handful of times\u003c/a> (these electors are labeled \"faithless\").\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>This is really confusing! How about a real example?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Sure. Let's look back at the historic 2008 election when Democrat Barack Obama handily defeated Republican John McCain. First off, in terms of electoral votes, Obama pretty much killed it - he ended up with more twice what John McCain had: 365 compared to 173.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Obama won the election by less than 10 million popular votes. Why? Because he was able to squeak out wins in the big critical swing states (namely Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida), amassing all of those electoral votes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What happened in Florida is actually a great example of just how peculiar our electoral system can be:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Sunshine State is the quintessential mother-lode swing state; always unpredictable and worth a big chunk of electoral votes. In 2008, Obama won it by a margin of less than three percent (he got about 51 percent to McCain's 48 percent). We're talking about a victory of less than 300,000 votes. But because of Florida's winner-take-all rule, Obama's slim victory secured him all 27 of the state's electoral votes (leaving McCain with squat). So, depending on how you look at it, you could technically argue that the votes cast by the more than 4 million Floridians who voted for McCain didn't really end up counting for much at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Can a candidate win the presidency without winning the popular vote?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Indeed! This has actually occurred five different times: in 1876 and 1888, Rutherford B. Hayes and Benjamin Harrison, respectively, won the White House even though they lost the popular vote (but won the electoral vote). And then there was that strange 1824 election, decided by the U.S. House of Representatives, which handed the presidency to John Quincy Adams over Andrew Jackson.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And then there was the infamous 2000 election, ultimately decided by the Supreme Court, in which Al Gore won more popular votes than George W. Bush, but came up short on electoral votes (following a controversial Florida recount). Guess who then became a staunch advocate for getting rid of the Electoral College?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Finally (but probably not the last) was the 2016 election, in which Hillary Clinton famously received nearly 3 million more votes than Donald Trump. But guess who won the presidency?\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Why did the Founding Fathers come up with such a zany system? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Two main reasons:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>a) They wanted to steer clear of the British parliamentary model, in which the chief executive (prime minister) is chosen by elected representatives of the majority party. The founders thought that it was more democratic to appoint electors from each state than to have a system in which the president was elected by Congress.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>b) It came down to an issue of old-school logistics: Back in the day, long distance communication and travel was, to put it mildly, a challenge. Voting for delegates at a local level was easier and less susceptible to tampering and corruption than was counting every last person's vote across the whole country.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>What are arguments for keeping the Electoral College?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>It's intended to make candidates pay at least some attention to less-populated states and rural regions (whose electors can add up) rather than focusing entirely on voter-rich urban centers.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It avoids the need for a nationwide recount in the event of a very close race.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It's consistent with America's representative system of government and it's in our Constitution, so just leave it be!\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch3>And how about against?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Under our current electoral system, not all votes are equal; voters in swing states and less populous states have disproportionate power. And that means that not every vote has equal impact. In a direct democracy, everyone's vote would have the same weight regardless of geography.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It encourages candidates to focus their campaigns largely in swing states while often ignoring the millions of voters in more populous states that tend to predictably favor one party.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It's a super outdated system that makes it possible for a candidate to win more votes but still lose the election.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n","disqusIdentifier":"3825 http://blogs.kqed.org/lowdown/?p=3825","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/2016/10/13/what-is-the-electoral-college-and-is-it-time-to-get-rid-of-it/","stats":{"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"hasAudio":false,"hasPolis":false,"wordCount":1610,"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"paragraphCount":32},"modified":1604457965,"excerpt":"It's a somewhat mysterious group of 538 Electoral College 'electors' that directly cast the actual votes to determine who the next president will be.\r\n\r\n","headData":{"twImgId":"","twTitle":"","ogTitle":"","ogImgId":"","twDescription":"","description":"It's a somewhat mysterious group of 538 Electoral College 'electors' that directly cast the actual votes to determine who the next president will be.\r\n\r\n","title":"EXPLAINER: What’s the Deal With the Electoral College? - The Lowdown","ogDescription":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"EXPLAINER: What's the Deal With the Electoral College?","datePublished":"2016-10-13T20:01:43-07:00","dateModified":"2020-11-03T18:46:05-08:00","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"what-is-the-electoral-college-and-is-it-time-to-get-rid-of-it","status":"publish","path":"/lowdown/3825/what-is-the-electoral-college-and-is-it-time-to-get-rid-of-it","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/O1DeSLZkPrg'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/O1DeSLZkPrg'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated Oct. 28, 2020\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here's a little factual nugget that never fails to baffle:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>American voters DO NOT directly elect the president.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yes, you read that correctly: the U.S. president is not chosen through a one-person, one-vote system of direct democracy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When voters head to the polls on Election Day to select the next president, they're not actually voting for any one person. Instead, they're throwing their support behind a group of \"electors\" who belong to a strange institution called the \u003ca href=\"http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Electoral College\u003c/a>. And it's this mysterious group of 538 members that directly casts the actual votes to determine who the next president will be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Don't believe me? Check out \u003ca href=\"http://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/articles/article-ii\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Article II, Section I \u003c/a>of the U.S. Constitution. Says it right there. Honest.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>What is the Electoral College?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>During presidential elections, state political parties select a group of \"electors.\" These are usually committed party activists who have pledged to support their party's presidential candidate should he or she win the state's popular vote.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>How many electors does each state get?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>It's based on a simple equation: each state's total number of congressional representatives plus its two senators. Every state (and Washington, D.C.) is guaranteed at least three electoral votes. A sparsely populated state like North Dakota - which has two senators but only one congressional representative - gets just three electoral votes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the other end of the spectrum is crowded California, which gets 55 electoral votes (equal to its 53 congressional representatives and two senators).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Interestingly -- and controversially -- the more than four million people living in U.S. territories like Puerto Rico and Guam get no electors. And although most residents of these territories are citizens and can participate in their party's presidential primaries, they have no influence in the general election.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>How does a presidential candidate win electors?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>The presidential election is a grueling state-by-state battle, and in almost every one of those states, it's a winner-take-all scenario. That means the candidate who receives the most popular votes -- the plurality -- in each state, gets all that state's Republican or Democratic electors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That's bad news for the other candidates in the race: even if they lose the popular vote by a single votes, they walk away from that state empty-handed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And that's why California and other very populous states like New York, Texas, and Florida are political jackpots: they have so many delicious electors for the taking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As if this wasn't complicated enough, there are actually two states that follow different rules. Maine and Nebraska use a proportional system, in which two electors are chosen by statewide popular vote and the remaining electors are decided by popular vote within each congressional district.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Why is 270 the magic number to win the race?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>There are 538 electors nationwide, and to win the presidency, a candidate needs just over half - or 270 of them. So, if you win a state like California (even if you win it by a single measly vote), you've just secured about 20 percent of the votes you need to be sitting pretty in the White House come January.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Conversely, presidential candidates on the campaign trail generally don't spend too much time in relatively underpopulated states like the Dakotas, where electors are scarce. You also probably won't find them campaigning too much in big but generally politically predictable states like Democratic-leaning California or Republican-leaning Texas. It's the big swing states (a.k.a. the battleground states) - like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Virginia - where they'll likely be spending most of their time as the election nears. These are the states that are still up for grabs and chock full of electors; the one's that usually decide the election.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.270towin.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">270 To Win\u003c/a> provides good interactive maps allowing users to simulate different outcomes. It also shows state-by-state breakdowns and results from previous presidential elections.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/hlQE4IGFc5A'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/hlQE4IGFc5A'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003ch3>And what if neither candidate gets to 270 electoral votes?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>The chances of this happening are incredibly slim, but if it did, the House of Representatives would elect the next president from a pool of the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation has one vote. The Senate would then elect the vice president, with each Senator casting a vote. This has only happened once: in the \u003ca href=\"http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/congress-decides-outcome-of-presidential-election\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">1824 presidential election\u003c/a>, Andrew Jackson won the most popular votes and led the pack in electoral votes. But because it was a competitive race among four candidates, Jackson fell short of winning the requisite electoral majority. Congress decided the outcome, and ultimately elected Jackson's rival John Quincy Adams.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>When do electors cast their official votes?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Oddly, it's not until about a month after Election Day. On the Monday following the second Wednesday of December (stay with me here), each state's electors meet in their respective state capitals and cast their votes -- one for president and one for vice president. This event never really gets a whole lot of attention because everyone already knows that those electors are almost certainly going to vote for the candidate in their own party. The results are announced the first week in January and the president is sworn in two weeks later.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Technically, electors \u003cem>can\u003c/em> change their minds, but it's only happened a \u003ca href=\"http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,55439,00.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">handful of times\u003c/a> (these electors are labeled \"faithless\").\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>This is really confusing! How about a real example?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Sure. Let's look back at the historic 2008 election when Democrat Barack Obama handily defeated Republican John McCain. First off, in terms of electoral votes, Obama pretty much killed it - he ended up with more twice what John McCain had: 365 compared to 173.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Obama won the election by less than 10 million popular votes. Why? Because he was able to squeak out wins in the big critical swing states (namely Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida), amassing all of those electoral votes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What happened in Florida is actually a great example of just how peculiar our electoral system can be:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Sunshine State is the quintessential mother-lode swing state; always unpredictable and worth a big chunk of electoral votes. In 2008, Obama won it by a margin of less than three percent (he got about 51 percent to McCain's 48 percent). We're talking about a victory of less than 300,000 votes. But because of Florida's winner-take-all rule, Obama's slim victory secured him all 27 of the state's electoral votes (leaving McCain with squat). So, depending on how you look at it, you could technically argue that the votes cast by the more than 4 million Floridians who voted for McCain didn't really end up counting for much at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Can a candidate win the presidency without winning the popular vote?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Indeed! This has actually occurred five different times: in 1876 and 1888, Rutherford B. Hayes and Benjamin Harrison, respectively, won the White House even though they lost the popular vote (but won the electoral vote). And then there was that strange 1824 election, decided by the U.S. House of Representatives, which handed the presidency to John Quincy Adams over Andrew Jackson.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And then there was the infamous 2000 election, ultimately decided by the Supreme Court, in which Al Gore won more popular votes than George W. Bush, but came up short on electoral votes (following a controversial Florida recount). Guess who then became a staunch advocate for getting rid of the Electoral College?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Finally (but probably not the last) was the 2016 election, in which Hillary Clinton famously received nearly 3 million more votes than Donald Trump. But guess who won the presidency?\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Why did the Founding Fathers come up with such a zany system? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Two main reasons:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>a) They wanted to steer clear of the British parliamentary model, in which the chief executive (prime minister) is chosen by elected representatives of the majority party. The founders thought that it was more democratic to appoint electors from each state than to have a system in which the president was elected by Congress.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>b) It came down to an issue of old-school logistics: Back in the day, long distance communication and travel was, to put it mildly, a challenge. Voting for delegates at a local level was easier and less susceptible to tampering and corruption than was counting every last person's vote across the whole country.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>What are arguments for keeping the Electoral College?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>It's intended to make candidates pay at least some attention to less-populated states and rural regions (whose electors can add up) rather than focusing entirely on voter-rich urban centers.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It avoids the need for a nationwide recount in the event of a very close race.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It's consistent with America's representative system of government and it's in our Constitution, so just leave it be!\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch3>And how about against?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Under our current electoral system, not all votes are equal; voters in swing states and less populous states have disproportionate power. And that means that not every vote has equal impact. In a direct democracy, everyone's vote would have the same weight regardless of geography.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It encourages candidates to focus their campaigns largely in swing states while often ignoring the millions of voters in more populous states that tend to predictably favor one party.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It's a super outdated system that makes it possible for a candidate to win more votes but still lose the election.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/lowdown/3825/what-is-the-electoral-college-and-is-it-time-to-get-rid-of-it","authors":["1263"],"categories":["lowdown_2498","lowdown_245","lowdown_2398","lowdown_243"],"tags":["lowdown_173","lowdown_2337","lowdown_285","lowdown_265","lowdown_29"],"featImg":"lowdown_24177","label":"lowdown"},"lowdown_3898":{"type":"posts","id":"lowdown_3898","meta":{"index":"posts_1716263798","site":"lowdown","id":"3898","score":null,"sort":[1349145069000]},"parent":0,"labelTerm":{"site":"lowdown"},"blocks":[],"publishDate":1349145069,"format":"standard","disqusTitle":"The Battleground States: Where It All Goes Down","title":"The Battleground States: Where It All Goes Down","headTitle":"The Lowdown | KQED News","content":"\u003cp>Because nearly every state in the nation has a winner-take-all presidential electoral system (except Nebraska and Maine), the outcome on election day in most states is fairly predictable. No Republican presidential candidate, for instance, has won California since 1988, and there's no sign of that trend changing anytime soon. So it wouldn't be the smartest move to put your money on Mitt Romney here.\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Likewise, Texas hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. So Barack Obama's chances of winning over the Longhorn State this election? Pretty slim.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, on the rare occasion there have been some monumental upsets. Take Indiana, which hadn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, but in 2008 picked Obama (albeit narrowly and ephemerally: the state is back to it's solid red roots this year).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The majority of the presidential race is downright predictable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So where's the suspense? Where's the action?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the election, so in most elections, the race comes down to the battleground states: those toss-ups that are divided pretty evenly between Republicans and Democrats and have lots of unpredictable independent voters. It's these states that typically have been the wildcards in recent elections, the one's with the power to literally \"swing\" the outcome of a presidential race, and the places you'll very likely find the candidates in the weeks and months leading up to the election.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As in 2008, the biggest swing states this year (the one's with the most electoral votes, that is, and a history of vacillating) are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina. All of them chose Obama in 2008, and current polls show him retaining a slim lead in most. The individual outcomes, though, still remain very much up in the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are a ton of good interactive electoral maps out there (so I'll restrain myself from creating another one). I particularly like the\u003ca href=\"http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-electoral-map/\"> Los Angeles Times interactive\u003c/a>, which provides an electoral calculator, a clear breakdown of past election results, and an interface users to play with different swing state scenarios.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.270towin.com/states/\">270ToWin\u003c/a>, which I've referenced in past posts, also has a great set of maps and resources, including state-by-state historical voting patterns. The site includes an interesting electoral college prediction calculator based on current polling numbers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Additionally, the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17306282\" target=\"_blank\">BBC\u003c/a> has a great interactive to learn more about battleground states, their populations, and the most compelling issues that might sway voters there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, then, what are the main factors that determine how a swing state might lean in a given election? There are many, of course, but among the most influential is the economy equation, A lot of voters evaluate the sitting president's performance on current economic conditions (even if those trends had already taken shape prior to a president assuming power). Because the U.S. economy continues to be sluggish, and unemployment rates are particularly high in key swing states like Ohio, many of the on-the-fence voters who chose Obama in 2008 will likely be quite a bit harder to win over this time around.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>http://www.youtube.com/embed/IkGgUVlXNIk\u003c/p>\n\n","disqusIdentifier":"3898 http://blogs.kqed.org/lowdown/?p=3898","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/2012/10/01/the-battleground-states-where-it-all-goes-down/","stats":{"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":false,"hasAudio":false,"hasPolis":false,"wordCount":541,"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"paragraphCount":13},"modified":1432168788,"excerpt":null,"headData":{"twImgId":"","twTitle":"","ogTitle":"","ogImgId":"","twDescription":"","description":"Because nearly every state in the nation has a winner-take-all presidential electoral system (except Nebraska and Maine), the outcome on election day in most states is fairly predictable. No Republican presidential candidate, for instance, has won California since 1988, and there's no sign of that trend changing anytime soon. So it wouldn't be the smartest move","title":"The Battleground States: Where It All Goes Down | KQED","ogDescription":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"The Battleground States: Where It All Goes Down","datePublished":"2012-10-01T19:31:09-07:00","dateModified":"2015-05-20T17:39:48-07:00","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-battleground-states-where-it-all-goes-down","status":"publish","path":"/lowdown/3898/the-battleground-states-where-it-all-goes-down","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Because nearly every state in the nation has a winner-take-all presidential electoral system (except Nebraska and Maine), the outcome on election day in most states is fairly predictable. No Republican presidential candidate, for instance, has won California since 1988, and there's no sign of that trend changing anytime soon. So it wouldn't be the smartest move to put your money on Mitt Romney here.\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Likewise, Texas hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. So Barack Obama's chances of winning over the Longhorn State this election? Pretty slim.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, on the rare occasion there have been some monumental upsets. Take Indiana, which hadn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, but in 2008 picked Obama (albeit narrowly and ephemerally: the state is back to it's solid red roots this year).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The majority of the presidential race is downright predictable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So where's the suspense? Where's the action?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the election, so in most elections, the race comes down to the battleground states: those toss-ups that are divided pretty evenly between Republicans and Democrats and have lots of unpredictable independent voters. It's these states that typically have been the wildcards in recent elections, the one's with the power to literally \"swing\" the outcome of a presidential race, and the places you'll very likely find the candidates in the weeks and months leading up to the election.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As in 2008, the biggest swing states this year (the one's with the most electoral votes, that is, and a history of vacillating) are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina. All of them chose Obama in 2008, and current polls show him retaining a slim lead in most. The individual outcomes, though, still remain very much up in the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are a ton of good interactive electoral maps out there (so I'll restrain myself from creating another one). I particularly like the\u003ca href=\"http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-electoral-map/\"> Los Angeles Times interactive\u003c/a>, which provides an electoral calculator, a clear breakdown of past election results, and an interface users to play with different swing state scenarios.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.270towin.com/states/\">270ToWin\u003c/a>, which I've referenced in past posts, also has a great set of maps and resources, including state-by-state historical voting patterns. The site includes an interesting electoral college prediction calculator based on current polling numbers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Additionally, the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17306282\" target=\"_blank\">BBC\u003c/a> has a great interactive to learn more about battleground states, their populations, and the most compelling issues that might sway voters there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, then, what are the main factors that determine how a swing state might lean in a given election? There are many, of course, but among the most influential is the economy equation, A lot of voters evaluate the sitting president's performance on current economic conditions (even if those trends had already taken shape prior to a president assuming power). Because the U.S. economy continues to be sluggish, and unemployment rates are particularly high in key swing states like Ohio, many of the on-the-fence voters who chose Obama in 2008 will likely be quite a bit harder to win over this time around.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/IkGgUVlXNIk'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/IkGgUVlXNIk'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/lowdown/3898/the-battleground-states-where-it-all-goes-down","authors":["1263"],"categories":["lowdown_245","lowdown_2398","lowdown_242","lowdown_243"],"tags":["lowdown_176","lowdown_173","lowdown_254","lowdown_285","lowdown_175","lowdown_265"],"featImg":"lowdown_3866","label":"lowdown"},"lowdown_3878":{"type":"posts","id":"lowdown_3878","meta":{"index":"posts_1716263798","site":"lowdown","id":"3878","score":null,"sort":[1348282206000]},"parent":0,"labelTerm":{"site":"lowdown"},"blocks":[],"publishDate":1348282206,"format":"aside","disqusTitle":"Three Excellent Infographics On America's Abstract Electoral System","title":"Three Excellent Infographics On America's Abstract Electoral System","headTitle":"The Lowdown | KQED News","content":"\u003cp>Elections aren't supposed to be super complicated. But they are. And if you feel like you still need a diagram to figure out our electoral process, here are two good ones to get you started (created independently and shared on the site visual.ly). Click on the first one to see it full size.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed\">\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2012/09/americans-versus-the-electoral-college_50291a66d98a51.jpeg\">\u003cimg class=\"visually_embed_infographic\" src=\"http://thumbnails.visually.netdna-cdn.com/americans-versus-the-electoral-college_50291a66d98a5_w587.jpeg\" alt=\"Americans Versus the Electoral College\" width=\"587\" height=\"352\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed_bar\">\u003cspan class=\"visually_embed_cycle\">\u003cspan>by \u003c/span> \u003ca href=\"http://www.good.is/\" target=\"_blank\">GOOD\u003c/a>.Learn about \u003ca href=\"http://visual.ly/learn/infographic-design/\">infographic design\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed_bar\">\u003c!--more-->\u003c/div>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed\">\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2012/09/the-electoral-college-is-weird_50290f0593899.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"visually_embed_infographic\" src=\"http://thumbnails.visually.netdna-cdn.com/data-americana_50291429d8286_w587.jpg\" alt=\"Data Americana\" width=\"587\" height=\"1355\">\u003c/a>\u003cspan class=\"visually_embed_cycle\">\u003cspan>\u003cbr>\nby \u003c/span> \u003ca href=\"http://uxblog.idvsolutions.com\" target=\"_blank\">johnmnelson\u003c/a>.Browse more \u003ca href=\"http://visual.ly\">data visualization\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed\">\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2012/09/how-romney-could-win-the-popular-vote-but-lose-the-election_504e81194ca80.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"visually_embed_infographic\" src=\"http://thumbnails.visually.netdna-cdn.com/how-romney-could-win-the-popular-vote-but-lose-the-election_504e81194ca80_w587.jpg\" alt=\"How Romney Could Win the Popular Vote, but Lose the Election\" width=\"587\" height=\"1085\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed_bar\">\u003cspan class=\"visually_embed_cycle\">Learn about \u003ca href=\"http://visual.ly/learn/data-visualization-tools/\">data visualization tools\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/div>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","disqusIdentifier":"3878 http://blogs.kqed.org/lowdown/?p=3878","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/2012/09/21/two-clear-infographics-that-help-visualize-americas-abstract-electoral-system/","stats":{"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"hasAudio":false,"hasPolis":false,"wordCount":77,"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"paragraphCount":6},"modified":1456860949,"excerpt":null,"headData":{"twImgId":"","twTitle":"","ogTitle":"","ogImgId":"","twDescription":"","description":"Elections aren't supposed to be super complicated. But they are. And if you feel like you still need a diagram to figure out our electoral process, here are two good ones to get you started (created independently and shared on the site visual.ly). Click on the first one to see it full size. by GOOD.Learn","title":"Three Excellent Infographics On America's Abstract Electoral System | KQED","ogDescription":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Three Excellent Infographics On America's Abstract Electoral System","datePublished":"2012-09-21T19:50:06-07:00","dateModified":"2016-03-01T11:35:49-08:00","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"two-clear-infographics-that-help-visualize-americas-abstract-electoral-system","status":"publish","path":"/lowdown/3878/two-clear-infographics-that-help-visualize-americas-abstract-electoral-system","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Elections aren't supposed to be super complicated. But they are. And if you feel like you still need a diagram to figure out our electoral process, here are two good ones to get you started (created independently and shared on the site visual.ly). Click on the first one to see it full size.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed\">\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2012/09/americans-versus-the-electoral-college_50291a66d98a51.jpeg\">\u003cimg class=\"visually_embed_infographic\" src=\"http://thumbnails.visually.netdna-cdn.com/americans-versus-the-electoral-college_50291a66d98a5_w587.jpeg\" alt=\"Americans Versus the Electoral College\" width=\"587\" height=\"352\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed_bar\">\u003cspan class=\"visually_embed_cycle\">\u003cspan>by \u003c/span> \u003ca href=\"http://www.good.is/\" target=\"_blank\">GOOD\u003c/a>.Learn about \u003ca href=\"http://visual.ly/learn/infographic-design/\">infographic design\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed_bar\">\u003c!--more-->\u003c/div>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed\">\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2012/09/the-electoral-college-is-weird_50290f0593899.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"visually_embed_infographic\" src=\"http://thumbnails.visually.netdna-cdn.com/data-americana_50291429d8286_w587.jpg\" alt=\"Data Americana\" width=\"587\" height=\"1355\">\u003c/a>\u003cspan class=\"visually_embed_cycle\">\u003cspan>\u003cbr>\nby \u003c/span> \u003ca href=\"http://uxblog.idvsolutions.com\" target=\"_blank\">johnmnelson\u003c/a>.Browse more \u003ca href=\"http://visual.ly\">data visualization\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed\">\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/lowdown/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2012/09/how-romney-could-win-the-popular-vote-but-lose-the-election_504e81194ca80.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"visually_embed_infographic\" src=\"http://thumbnails.visually.netdna-cdn.com/how-romney-could-win-the-popular-vote-but-lose-the-election_504e81194ca80_w587.jpg\" alt=\"How Romney Could Win the Popular Vote, but Lose the Election\" width=\"587\" height=\"1085\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"visually_embed_bar\">\u003cspan class=\"visually_embed_cycle\">Learn about \u003ca href=\"http://visual.ly/learn/data-visualization-tools/\">data visualization tools\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/div>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/lowdown/3878/two-clear-infographics-that-help-visualize-americas-abstract-electoral-system","authors":["1263"],"categories":["lowdown_256","lowdown_2398","lowdown_2391"],"tags":["lowdown_281","lowdown_174","lowdown_173","lowdown_286","lowdown_29"],"label":"lowdown"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. 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Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. As a non-partisan forum, The Club brings to the public airwaves diverse viewpoints on important topics. The Club's weekly radio broadcast - the oldest in the U.S., dating back to 1924 - is carried across the nation on public radio stations and is now podcasting. Our website archive features audio of our recent programs, as well as selected speeches from our long and distinguished history. 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