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Alexis Madrigal: Welcome to Forum. I’m Alexis Madrigal.
Sometimes producers find something in their research that perfectly encapsulates what we’re trying to talk about. In this case, producer Dan Brekke dug up a document from a panel put on by the Council on Criminal Justice about the causes of the massive decline in crime over the last 30 years.
And get this—they listed 41 potential contributing factors. Maybe it’s technology in some form. Maybe it’s GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic. Maybe it’s violence interruption strategies. It’s not that no one knows what could be going on, but many different people have many different ideas.
Here to discuss this admittedly happy mystery, we’re joined by Magnus Lofstrom, senior fellow and policy director of criminal justice with the Public Policy Institute of California. Welcome, Magnus.
Magnus Lofstrom: Thank you. Great to be here.
Alexis Madrigal: We also have Alex Piquero, professor and chair of the Department of Sociology and Criminology at the University of Miami, and former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics under President Biden. Welcome.
Alex Piquero: Happy to be here. Thanks for having me.
Alexis Madrigal: And Jeff Asher, crime data analyst and cofounder of AH Datalytics. Welcome.
Jeff Asher: Thanks for having me.
Alexis Madrigal: So, walk us through—and maybe we’ll start with you, Alex Piquero—the longer-term and shorter-term data. We know that violent crime began to fall starting in the 1990s, though the pandemic was a big exception. Just walk us through that.
Alex Piquero: Yeah. There are long-term trends, short-term trends, national trends, and local trends. To make this as simple as possible, let’s start with the last seven years.
We saw a spike in violent crime—especially assaults, homicides, and domestic violence—during the early part of the COVID pandemic. Then we saw a precipitous drop in many of those categories. By the end of 2025, when the official FBI data are released later this year, we may be at homicide levels similar to the late 1950s or 1960s, when reliable national data first became available.
That’s the aggregate trend, and it’s good news. But within that, there are important variations. Some cities continue to see declines—for example, New York City had just over 300 homicides by the end of 2025. That’s still 300 lives—sons, daughters, partners—but compared to 25 years ago, it’s a much better place.
The same is true for San Francisco. But some cities are moving in a different direction. Louisville, for example, has seen increases. And it’s not just differences between cities—it’s differences within neighborhoods.
So overall, the U.S. is in a much better place with respect to crime trends. But it’s not time to celebrate and move on. We need to continue focusing on the prevention and intervention efforts that helped drive these declines.
Alexis Madrigal: Yeah. For a lot of local listeners, Oakland was a big exception—2023 was a particularly bad year there, even as crime was dropping in most places. Now Oakland is declining as well.
Jeff Asher, what do you make of the variability across cities—even within a region like the Bay Area—and the differences in timing? What does that tell us about what’s actually causing these declines?
Jeff Asher: I think it shows that cities tend to move in the same general direction, but not all at the same time.
We saw this in the 1990s. I’m in New Orleans, where the U.S. murder rate peaked in the early ’90s and then began to fall. But in New Orleans, 1994 was the worst year on record—even as the national trend was already declining. Shortly after that, New Orleans followed and saw significant drops.
So cities tend to follow similar patterns, just on slightly different timelines. Not every city goes down in the same year or up in the same year.
In the Bay Area, for example, San Francisco has had the fewest murders since 1942, according to FBI data. Oakland had its lowest total since 1967 last year. The peaks and declines didn’t happen simultaneously, but we are seeing broad, substantial decreases almost everywhere.
Alexis Madrigal: Magnus, let me ask you—within California, we often compare cities like Oakland, San Francisco, and San Jose. But are there other ways of breaking things down geographically that might make more sense? For example, cities versus suburbs or rural areas?
Magnus Lofstrom: I think Jeff is right—we’re seeing broad, widespread decreases, especially in violent crime and homicides across California.
Looking at the 15 largest counties in 2024—the most recent year with full statewide data—12 saw decreases in homicides. Across the board, crime declined in 2024, and preliminary 2025 data suggest those declines are continuing.
To understand what’s happened over the last six or seven years, we have to look back at the pandemic. In 2020, we saw the largest increase in homicides ever recorded in California and much of the country. That increase continued into 2021.
Those spikes were tied to major disruptions caused by efforts to control COVID. Every part of the criminal justice system was affected—law enforcement, courts, jails, prisons. Schools were closed. Unemployment rose sharply. People were sheltering in place.
These disruptions also limited the ability of local governments and community-based organizations to provide services and support.
As those disruptions have faded, we’ve seen a return to more normal operations. Services and support systems are largely back to pre-pandemic levels, and so are many criminal justice functions. That’s a big part of the story.
But there may be other contributing factors, and it’s important to keep studying what’s driving these declines—and how we can continue them.
Alexis Madrigal: We’re talking about what explains the dramatic drop in crime rates, both locally and nationally, with Magnus Lofstrom of the Public Policy Institute of California, Alex Piquero of the University of Miami, and Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics.
Of course, crime numbers don’t tell the whole story. People have their own lived experiences. Carl writes: “I can’t say crime has gone down in East San Jose. I’ve had six cars stolen—five times for catalytic converters—and this is supposed to be one of the safest cities in America.”
We want to hear from you: Is there a crime prevention measure that you think has worked where you are?
You can call us at 866-733-6786. That’s 866-733-6786. You can email us at forum@kqed.org, or find us on social media—BlueSky, Instagram—at KQED Forum.
I’m Alexis Madrigal. Stay tuned.
