As Iran and Israel War Continues, What Does It Mean for the Bay Area Iranian Diaspora?

As the war between Israel and Iran continues, members of the Iranian diaspora in the Bay Area are closely watching as people in Iran are being asked to evacuate amidst travel bans, fuel shortages and internet blackouts. The United States is home to the largest Iranian diaspora outside of Iran, with over fifty percent of that population living in California. We talk with Iranian community members and leaders in the Bay Area about how these latest events fit in the larger context of the nation’s history, what it all means for the people in Iran, and how members of the diaspora are navigating the situation from afar.

This partial transcript was computer-generated. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.

Alexis Madrigal: Welcome to Forum. I’m Alexis Madrigal.

While many Americans are shocked and trying to process a war that’s unfolding in the Middle East again, the Iranian diaspora here in the Bay Area and across the country is in an especially difficult situation. Many have family in Iran — family that’s now subject to another travel ban, not unlike the so-called Muslim travel ban from the first Trump administration. Communication with friends and loved ones inside Iran can be spotty, and the uncertainty of what’s going to happen in the coming months and years is unbearable.

At the same time — as with the Woman, Life, Freedom protests of a few years ago — many Iranians in the United States continue to hope that the regime might transform or fall, allowing them to reconnect with the country of their ancestors.

Joining us this morning are four people from the Iranian diaspora. Really, thank you to all of you for being here today. I know it’s a very difficult time.

We have Nahid Siamdoust, a journalist and professor in the Department of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Welcome, Nahid.

Professor Siamdoust: Thank you so much for having me.

Alexis Madrigal: Thanks for joining us. We also have Persis Karim, a writer, poet, and professor at San Francisco State University, where she heads the Center for Iranian Diaspora Studies. Thanks for being here, Persis.

Persis Karim: Thank you so much.

Alexis Madrigal: And we have Hasti Jafari, a playwright, cartoonist, and educator. Thank you so much for joining us, Hasti.

Hasti Jafari: Thanks for having me.

Alexis Madrigal: And we have Arman Mahmoudi, a community organizer with Bay Area 4 Iran. Thanks for joining us, Arman.

Arman Mahmoudi: Thanks for having me.

Alexis Madrigal: Nahid, let’s start with you. How are you making sense of what happened? What do you think Americans might be missing — whether about the Trump administration, the Iranian regime, or something else?

Professor Siamdoust: Most Americans watching mainstream news are seeing, yet again, a massive machinery at work — manufacturing consent for this war. All the broader frameworks are either forgotten or never even discussed.

This is an illegal war of aggression by Israel — a country that has carried out a war of annihilation and starvation against the people it occupies: the Palestinians in Gaza and also in the West Bank. The U.S. joining this war violates international law — Geneva Conventions and others.

And right away, the narrative becomes that Iran is the threat — even though Israel and the U.S. are the ones with nuclear bombs. Iran doesn’t have one. In fact, Iran’s breakout time to develop a bomb was at least six months, if not twelve, according to U.S. intelligence estimates.

We’re plunged into this old narrative again — needing to “win against the evil empire.” This discourse is, to a great extent, driven by the Israeli government and Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been lobbying for war with Iran for over 20 years.

Inside Iran, people have been working for decades to bring change and reform. Every day, they push back against their own authoritarian government. And now they’re also caught between that regime and what they see as a criminal war machine led by the U.S. and Israel — a machine aiming to annihilate Iran’s civilian infrastructure.

This isn’t just a war against military or nuclear sites. In the past week, we’ve heard from family that many civilian targets have been bombed: hospitals, media outlets, communication infrastructure.

To many Iranians — both inside and outside the country — it looks like the Israeli government is trying to decimate the state infrastructure of Iran, like it has in Syria and Lebanon, to render the state incapable of functioning, so Israeli supremacy can dominate the region.

Alexis Madrigal: Hasti, you grew up under the regime and came to the U.S. as an adult. Do you think people of your generation — or those who’ve had your immigration experience — feel differently than others in the diaspora?

Hasti Jafari: People have so many different kinds of feelings. Some hope that this will bring about regime change. Some feel conflicted — like, “I don’t want my country to be bombed, but I do want the regime to be bombed.”

When high commanders — people who’ve committed massive human rights violations — are killed, of course some people feel relieved or even glad, because these are people who have murdered civilians.

And even now, ten days into this, the number of people killed by bombings isn’t as high as the number of Iranians killed by their own government during previous crackdowns — especially when there were internet shutdowns during protests.

It’s a very complicated situation for a lot of Iranians.

Alexis Madrigal: Persis, are you feeling these conflicting emotions too? You grew up here, but have deep roots in Iran.

Persis Karim: Yes. I appreciate and understand the perspective of people who want to see real change in Iran.

But as someone deeply embedded in the American context, I feel a deep sense of foreboding — and fear — about the U.S. exercising its military power and doing irreparable damage to the Iranian people.

As Nahid said, this could close the door on the possibility of real, long-term change.

I’ve followed the Middle East for over 25 years, and I don’t believe the U.S. cares about the welfare of the Iranian people. It cares about its own interests. Iran has struggled for over a century to exercise its sovereignty. There was foreign intervention in the 1906 Constitutional Revolution. In 1953, the U.S. orchestrated a military coup. These repeated interventions have disrupted Iran’s ability to change on its own terms.

There’s also the risk that this conflict could harden the regime — just like during the Iran-Iraq War, when the government used the war to solidify its power and suppress its people.

Alexis Madrigal: Arman, I know we’ll try to speak with your friend in Iran later in the show. You’re organizing here in the Bay Area — where do you stand in the diaspora’s range of views?

Arman Mahmoudi: I want to speak to what Hasti mentioned — the government’s oppression of its people.

BayArea4Iran, and a lot of the diaspora, has been hearing many different reactions. In the first 48 hours of this war, 16 high-profile Iranian generals — people responsible for crimes like the downing of flight PS752, and brutal suppression during Woman, Life, Freedom — were killed.

The Islamic Republic — and I say “Republic” in quotes because it’s hardly one — has executed more people per capita than any other state in the past 20 years. Right before this war started, they were executing one person every six hours.

It’s a common belief in Iran that the people have been at war with their own government for 46 years. Now that the regime is also at war with a regional power, many fear the backlash will again fall hardest on Iran’s own people.

I agree with Nahid — what Israel has done in other conflicts is indefensible. But as the war drags on, the concern Persis raised becomes more widespread. People want the conflict to end as soon as possible.

The optimistic take is: maybe this will open the door to regime change. But most Iranians believe that real change won’t come from outside. It has to come from within — by the Iranian people themselves.

Maybe the weakening of certain institutions will create an opening. Maybe. But history shows that when this regime is under attack, it can’t strike back effectively at Israel — so it retaliates against dissidents at home.

Just yesterday, a 27-year-old disabled political prisoner, Mohammad Amin Mahdavi Shayesteh, was executed. He’s the fourth high-profile execution in recent days. Others include Mojahed Kourkour, Mohsen Langarneshin, and Hamid Hosseinnejad. Two of these were accused of being Israeli spies.

Alexis Madrigal: We’re talking with members of the Iranian diaspora about the war in Iran — which the U.S. joined this weekend, at least in some capacity.

Our guests are Arman Mahmoudi, community organizer with Bay Area 4 Iran; Hasti Jafari, playwright, cartoonist, and educator; Nahid Siamdoust, journalist and professor at UT Austin; and Persis Karim, writer, poet, and professor at SF State.

We want to hear from you, too. You can give us a call at 866-733-6786. Maybe you’re part of the Iranian community here in the Bay Area. You can also email us at forum@kqed.org or find us on social media.

I’m Alexis Madrigal. Stay tuned.