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"content": "\n\u003cp>The odds of an unusually wet winter in the Bay Area are rising as \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/el-nino\">El Niño\u003c/a> continues to strengthen, according to climate scientist Daniel Swain. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The UC Agriculture and Natural Resources researcher said that statewide, there’s a “90% to 95% confidence in a wetter-than-average winter,” with the biggest spike most likely to come in January and February. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s walking like an El Niño, and it’s talking like an El Niño,” Swain said during a virtual office hours session on Tuesday. “So far, it is all systems go.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Swain’s “high-key level takeaway” is that \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">October El Niño updates\u003c/a> show the likelihood of California-related impacts increasing “from already pretty high confidence” in September. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/CaliforniaRipCurrentsGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12088700\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/CaliforniaRipCurrentsGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/CaliforniaRipCurrentsGetty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/CaliforniaRipCurrentsGetty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Visitors navigate breaking waves along the coastline of Windansea Beach in La Jolla on June 20, 2026, in San Diego, California. The National Weather Service issued a beach hazard statement for elevated surf and high risk for rip currents. (Kevin Carter/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Swain said all 10 of the major models “are singing roughly the same tune” about precipitation possibilities. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The Bay Area and the North Bay in particular, all the watersheds there, are more likely to see very wet conditions this winter than not,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In his \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/\">most recent blog post\u003c/a>, Swain said that El Niño will likely strengthen for up to two months before peaking between November and January. But he said that impacts are often delayed to “the peak intensity” of El Niño itself, and “This is likely to be true in California.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This year’s tilt in the odds toward wet and stormy conditions in California will be profoundly unsubtle,” Swain said.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Impacts could include torrential downpours, rain instead of snow events, flooding, temporarily elevated sea levels, severe thunderstorms and even “isolated tornadoes.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This might be another winter, but on steroids,” Swain said. “This might be a year when the Hollywood version of bad weather in California actually ends up coming true.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>On the Sierra Nevada snowpack and how it might fare this winter, Swain said lower elevations could get more rain than snow, and that higher elevations of 8,000 feet or taller will likely have “a very snowy winter.” Swain said it could spell rain in South Lake Tahoe “almost all winter,” and that “there could be an enormous amount of snow up at the top of the Heavenly chairlift.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I wouldn’t count on November or December in the Sierra Nevada [for snow],” Swain said. “The odds might get a little bit better as we go toward the back end of the season, and El Niño starts to lose its maturity.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12066253\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Flooding near the Kappa Marina floating home community in Sausalito on Dec. 4, 2025, during a king tide event.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño also produces massive Kelvin waves — when tropical trade winds slow or reverse. Swain said they have “completely reversed direction” — allowing warm water to push toward South America.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That water splits north and south when it hits land. A Kelvin wave \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002141/an-el-nino-driven-kelvin-wave-could-raise-bay-area-sea-levels-and-flooding-risk\">has already\u003c/a> swept along the coast, raising sea levels by more than a foot, along with thermal expansion also caused by El Niño. Another coastally trapped wave is also moving up the coast, but won’t reach California for around three weeks. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Swain is worried that major flooding could occur later this winter with king tides during Thanksgiving week and Christmas. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This could be a big problem with disruption of transportation on major highways and interstates throughout California that run through low-lying coastal areas,” Swain said. “If there’s a major storm, we could see major or even record-breaking coastal flooding, and it wouldn’t even take an extreme storm.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It’s walking like an El Niño, and it’s talking like an El Niño,” Swain said during a virtual office hours session on Tuesday. “So far, it is all systems go.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Swain’s “high-key level takeaway” is that \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">October El Niño updates\u003c/a> show the likelihood of California-related impacts increasing “from already pretty high confidence” in September. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Swain said all 10 of the major models “are singing roughly the same tune” about precipitation possibilities. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The Bay Area and the North Bay in particular, all the watersheds there, are more likely to see very wet conditions this winter than not,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In his \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/\">most recent blog post\u003c/a>, Swain said that El Niño will likely strengthen for up to two months before peaking between November and January. But he said that impacts are often delayed to “the peak intensity” of El Niño itself, and “This is likely to be true in California.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This year’s tilt in the odds toward wet and stormy conditions in California will be profoundly unsubtle,” Swain said.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Impacts could include torrential downpours, rain instead of snow events, flooding, temporarily elevated sea levels, severe thunderstorms and even “isolated tornadoes.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“This year’s tilt in the odds toward wet and stormy conditions in California will be profoundly unsubtle,” Swain said.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Impacts could include torrential downpours, rain instead of snow events, flooding, temporarily elevated sea levels, severe thunderstorms and even “isolated tornadoes.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This might be another winter, but on steroids,” Swain said. “This might be a year when the Hollywood version of bad weather in California actually ends up coming true.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>On the Sierra Nevada snowpack and how it might fare this winter, Swain said lower elevations could get more rain than snow, and that higher elevations of 8,000 feet or taller will likely have “a very snowy winter.” Swain said it could spell rain in South Lake Tahoe “almost all winter,” and that “there could be an enormous amount of snow up at the top of the Heavenly chairlift.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>On the Sierra Nevada snowpack and how it might fare this winter, Swain said lower elevations could get more rain than snow, and that higher elevations of 8,000 feet or taller will likely have “a very snowy winter.” Swain said it could spell rain in South Lake Tahoe “almost all winter,” and that “there could be an enormous amount of snow up at the top of the Heavenly chairlift.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I wouldn’t count on November or December in the Sierra Nevada [for snow],” Swain said. “The odds might get a little bit better as we go toward the back end of the season, and El Niño starts to lose its maturity.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I wouldn’t count on November or December in the Sierra Nevada [for snow],” Swain said. “The odds might get a little bit better as we go toward the back end of the season, and El Niño starts to lose its maturity.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12066253\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Flooding near the Kappa Marina floating home community in Sausalito on Dec. 4, 2025, during a king tide event.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>El Niño also produces massive Kelvin waves — when tropical trade winds slow or reverse. Swain said they have “completely reversed direction” — allowing warm water to push toward South America.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>El Niño also produces massive Kelvin waves — when tropical trade winds slow or reverse. Swain said they have “completely reversed direction” — allowing warm water to push toward South America.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That water splits north and south when it hits land. A Kelvin wave \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002141/an-el-nino-driven-kelvin-wave-could-raise-bay-area-sea-levels-and-flooding-risk\">has already\u003c/a> swept along the coast, raising sea levels by more than a foot, along with thermal expansion also caused by El Niño. Another coastally trapped wave is also moving up the coast, but won’t reach California for around three weeks. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>That water splits north and south when it hits land. A Kelvin wave \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002141/an-el-nino-driven-kelvin-wave-could-raise-bay-area-sea-levels-and-flooding-risk\">has already\u003c/a> swept along the coast, raising sea levels by more than a foot, along with thermal expansion also caused by El Niño. Another coastally trapped wave is also moving up the coast, but won’t reach California for around three weeks. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Swain is worried that major flooding could occur later this winter with king tides during Thanksgiving week and Christmas. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This could be a big problem with disruption of transportation on major highways and interstates throughout California that run through low-lying coastal areas,” Swain said. “If there’s a major storm, we could see major or even record-breaking coastal flooding, and it wouldn’t even take an extreme storm.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "As El Niño continues to strengthen, scientists warn that California could face a winter of intense storms, heavy rain and coastal flooding.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>The odds of an unusually wet winter in the Bay Area are rising as \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/el-nino\">El Niño\u003c/a> continues to strengthen, according to climate scientist Daniel Swain. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The UC Agriculture and Natural Resources researcher said that statewide, there’s a “90% to 95% confidence in a wetter-than-average winter,” with the biggest spike most likely to come in January and February. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s walking like an El Niño, and it’s talking like an El Niño,” Swain said during a virtual office hours session on Tuesday. “So far, it is all systems go.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Swain’s “high-key level takeaway” is that \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">October El Niño updates\u003c/a> show the likelihood of California-related impacts increasing “from already pretty high confidence” in September. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/CaliforniaRipCurrentsGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12088700\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/CaliforniaRipCurrentsGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/CaliforniaRipCurrentsGetty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/CaliforniaRipCurrentsGetty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Visitors navigate breaking waves along the coastline of Windansea Beach in La Jolla on June 20, 2026, in San Diego, California. The National Weather Service issued a beach hazard statement for elevated surf and high risk for rip currents. (Kevin Carter/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Swain said all 10 of the major models “are singing roughly the same tune” about precipitation possibilities. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The Bay Area and the North Bay in particular, all the watersheds there, are more likely to see very wet conditions this winter than not,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In his \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/\">most recent blog post\u003c/a>, Swain said that El Niño will likely strengthen for up to two months before peaking between November and January. But he said that impacts are often delayed to “the peak intensity” of El Niño itself, and “This is likely to be true in California.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This year’s tilt in the odds toward wet and stormy conditions in California will be profoundly unsubtle,” Swain said.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Impacts could include torrential downpours, rain instead of snow events, flooding, temporarily elevated sea levels, severe thunderstorms and even “isolated tornadoes.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This might be another winter, but on steroids,” Swain said. “This might be a year when the Hollywood version of bad weather in California actually ends up coming true.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>On the Sierra Nevada snowpack and how it might fare this winter, Swain said lower elevations could get more rain than snow, and that higher elevations of 8,000 feet or taller will likely have “a very snowy winter.” Swain said it could spell rain in South Lake Tahoe “almost all winter,” and that “there could be an enormous amount of snow up at the top of the Heavenly chairlift.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I wouldn’t count on November or December in the Sierra Nevada [for snow],” Swain said. “The odds might get a little bit better as we go toward the back end of the season, and El Niño starts to lose its maturity.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12066253\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-61-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Flooding near the Kappa Marina floating home community in Sausalito on Dec. 4, 2025, during a king tide event.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño also produces massive Kelvin waves — when tropical trade winds slow or reverse. Swain said they have “completely reversed direction” — allowing warm water to push toward South America.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That water splits north and south when it hits land. A Kelvin wave \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002141/an-el-nino-driven-kelvin-wave-could-raise-bay-area-sea-levels-and-flooding-risk\">has already\u003c/a> swept along the coast, raising sea levels by more than a foot, along with thermal expansion also caused by El Niño. Another coastally trapped wave is also moving up the coast, but won’t reach California for around three weeks. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Swain is worried that major flooding could occur later this winter with king tides during Thanksgiving week and Christmas. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This could be a big problem with disruption of transportation on major highways and interstates throughout California that run through low-lying coastal areas,” Swain said. “If there’s a major storm, we could see major or even record-breaking coastal flooding, and it wouldn’t even take an extreme storm.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "a-kelvin-wave-on-top-of-el-nino-what-bay-area-hikers-bikers-swimmers-and-campers-should-know-this-winter",
"title": "A Kelvin Wave on Top of El Niño? What Bay Area Hikers, Bikers, Swimmers and Campers Should Know This Winter",
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"headTitle": "A Kelvin Wave on Top of El Niño? What Bay Area Hikers, Bikers, Swimmers and Campers Should Know This Winter | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12103307/cautiously-optimistic-the-latest-on-el-nino-and-tahoes-ski-season\">latest El Niño forecasts\u003c/a> show the Bay Area could be in for a particularly wet winter, affecting any late-season outdoor trips locals typically save for the region’s “second summer” in October. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But a new threat on the horizon, called a “\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002141/an-el-nino-driven-kelvin-wave-could-raise-bay-area-sea-levels-and-flooding-risk\">Kelvin wave\u003c/a>,” could also spoil plans for late-season hiking, biking and water sports. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>First predicted to hit in mid- to late-October, this warm-water phenomenon could raise Bay Area sea levels by up to a foot. On top of already-high sea levels, potential wet weather and seasonal King Tides, coastal regions could be in for some pretty severe flooding. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So if you’ve got a coastal campsite booked, maybe a long bike ride up to Marin planned, or a kayaking or swimming trip coming up this fall, be aware: Higher water levels are expected and might affect your plans. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Read on for more information, broken down by activity:\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#swimming\">Swimming and kayaking\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#hiking\">Biking and hiking\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#camping\">Camping\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"swimming\">Beware of debris and high shorelines while swimming and kayaking\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A main signal of this year’s expected “super El Niño” is particularly warm water in the Pacific Ocean. While that might sound ideal for swimmers, Sylvia Lacock, co-founder of Pacific Open Water Swim Co. and a master captain, said otherwise. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>First, she said, her clients who actively seek out cold-water swimming to qualify or train for international competitions are having to push their scheduled swim dates back deeper toward winter. But more relevant to casual swimmers, she said, is that flooding due to higher tides and sea levels could engulf beaches and docks, making getting in the water to enjoy it difficult. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12103551\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Floodwaters covered roads in Marin County as residents Jill Sherman and her kids, Imogen and Zander Smith, kayak on the bike trail during high tide between Sausalito and Mill Valley during rainy weather on Jan. 3, 2026. (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Constant rain, constant storms, how it ends up impacting kite surfers, windsurfers and swimmers, is that with a higher tide, we lose beach,” she said. “So if you’re used to having a lot of beach to maybe go in and off of in Aquatic Park or at Crissy Field, you might find that that beach feels a lot smaller just because the water’s up a lot higher.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Galen Licht, CEO and co-owner of kayak rental company SeaTrek, said a group of high school students on a trip to Angel Island last week struggled with the already-high tides.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The beach was nearly gone, and [on] the walkway that we would normally take to get up to the campsite, they were walking in waist-deep water,” he said. “It kind of caught us off guard a little bit.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Plus, Lacock said, areas around shorelines could also be flooded with debris, adding hazards to the water for swimmers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Every single year we see this,” she said. “When we have storms that come through, now add a higher tide to it. Whether it’s piers or docks, that breaks off, and it ends up floating in the bay.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For boaters, these floating hazards are an added challenge, she said. Swimmers have to watch for broken pieces of piers and even kite surfers may have to worry about “items that may be just submerged under the surface of the water,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Lacock said she’s particularly concerned about the area around \u003ca href=\"https://www.nps.gov/safr/learn/historyculture/aquatic-park-pier.htm\">San Francisco’s Muni Pier\u003c/a>, which has been in disrepair since it closed in 2022 due to structural damage from an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Licht, whose company operates kayak launches in Alameda and Sausalito, said he is “making sure things are extra tied down” and “preparing to be more flexible than ever this winter.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In general, Lacock said swimmers should avoid getting into the water immediately after a storm, especially the first big storm of the winter season. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“You may want to not be in the water for the first 24 or 48 hours after that,” she said. “We like that tide cycle to kind of flush that water out.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hiking\">Watch for flooding on popular hiking and biking trails\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The compounding effects of higher sea levels, Kelvin waves, King Tides and whatever else this El Niño winter might bring won’t just affect people recreating \u003cem>in \u003c/em>the water. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Dan Sauter, operations superintendent for Marin County Parks, said his agency is preparing for the potential “stacking” of higher tides onto its bayside parks and open space preserves.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Over the past few weeks, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.parks.marincounty.gov/parkspreserves/parks/mill-valley-sausalito-pathway\">Mill Valley-Sausalito multi-use path\u003c/a> — a connecting route for bikers and hikers that routinely floods in winter — has already been submerged, he said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Typically, the path floods when tides are about 6 feet high, he said, but that number could go down if there are more factors in play.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1498\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12103556\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a-1536x1150.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Floodwaters covered roads in Marin County as residents kayak on the bike trail during high tide between Sausalito and Mill Valley during rainy weather on Jan. 3, 2026. (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re expecting the tides to impact it at a lower projected tide number,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In fact, the multi-use trail floods so often that there is currently an \u003ca href=\"https://www.onetam.org/our-work/bothin-marsh\">effort underway to redesign it\u003c/a>, said Rob LaPorte, a senior project manager with the Golden Gate National Parks Conservancy who has been working on improvements to the trail. He said rerouting the path isn’t particularly feasible given its location sandwiched between the bay and Highways 1 and 101.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re looking at significantly raising it by approximately 6.5 feet, 7 feet just to make it more storm-proof,” he said. “And then we’re also looking at ways to restore the natural processes at this marsh to help that ecosystem adapt to higher waters.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>SeaTrek’s Licht said some customers even rent kayaks in Sausalito specifically to paddle through the flooded marsh. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s wild,” he said. “Literally our kayakers can paddle across the bike path — and they do.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1332\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12018233\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-1536x1023.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-1920x1279.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People walk along the Embarcadero during a high king tide in San Francisco on Dec. 13, 2024. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Also of concern in Marin County are the Miller Boat Launch in Tomales Bay, Black Point Boat Launch in San Pablo Bay and McNears Beach and McInnis Park in San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sauter said Marin County Parks stations rangers around the multi-use trail and other parks to let people know about potential flooding or advise them when trails are closed. They’ve even started pre-making signs to put up advising hikers and bikers to prepare for flooding impacts. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If a storm is significant, we may be closing regional parks or areas that are unsafe to visitors,” he said. “So we’re prepared to do that.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>LaPorte said his main concern going into this potentially historic winter is that park infrastructure, designed to handle historical averages of rainfall, may not be up to the task.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“With this El Niño event and the potential for big storms that are associated with climate change — and then add on top of that the Kelvin wave — we’re just anticipating there being a lot more water that’s affecting trails throughout the parks,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sauter said hikers and bikers should simply stay home during a storm.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s always a good idea to check your weather when you’re heading out and your tide logs,” he said. “There’s a good chunk of people that aren’t expecting to come across a multi-use path underwater on just a regular nice day. But it does happen out there.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>After a storm, clearing sediment and other debris off the path and other flooded areas also takes time, Sauter said, so be patient.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re all expecting the worst and hoping for the best and preparing for anything,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"camping\">Stay tuned for coastal campground closures\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If you’ve got fall camping plans, particularly if your site is on or near the bay or ocean, be sure to double-check your reservation is still on before you head out.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Peter Ostroskie, spokesperson for California State Parks’ Bay Area district, said anyone with a camping reservation this winter should check the website of the park they’re going to before heading out. Some state parks also use social media to keep visitors informed, he said. And if you’re ever in doubt about safety or weather conditions at a park, you can always call the number of the park listed on its website for the most up-to-date information.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re happy to give you updates or let you know what’s going on and what are the conditions right now,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12066250\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Flooding near the Highway 101 Sausalito/Mill Valley exit in Sausalito on Dec. 4, 2025, during a king tide event. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If you are planning to camp during wet weather, make sure you have the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12064291/winter-camping-reservations-where-to-go-campsites-near-san-francisco-bay-area\">proper gear and are prepared to leave in case of emergency\u003c/a>. Ostroskie said state parks staff are preparing for a wet winter by staging equipment and readying communications to handle potential flooding or other effects of rising sea levels. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Parks like Angel Island, China Camp, Tomales Bay, Mt. Tam and Candlestick are of particular concern, Ostroskie said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He said he’s also worried about a park like Samuel P. Taylor State Park, whose Lagunitas Creek can rise dramatically during storms.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The creek floods really high, so we actually close off the creekside campground,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Landslides, fallen trees and power lines are also typical stormy weather concerns for parks, Ostroskie said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For oceanside campgrounds, bad weather and consistent big waves can threaten infrastructure, he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’ll probably take us a little bit longer to open up the season, especially when we hit spring and summer, just because we’ll be doing repairs and fixing things,” he said. “And sometimes that takes a little time.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>First predicted to hit in mid- to late-October, this warm-water phenomenon could raise Bay Area sea levels by up to a foot. On top of already-high sea levels, potential wet weather and seasonal King Tides, coastal regions could be in for some pretty severe flooding. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>First predicted to hit in mid- to late-October, this warm-water phenomenon could raise Bay Area sea levels by up to a foot. On top of already-high sea levels, potential wet weather and seasonal King Tides, coastal regions could be in for some pretty severe flooding. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So if you’ve got a coastal campsite booked, maybe a long bike ride up to Marin planned, or a kayaking or swimming trip coming up this fall, be aware: Higher water levels are expected and might affect your plans. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>So if you’ve got a coastal campsite booked, maybe a long bike ride up to Marin planned, or a kayaking or swimming trip coming up this fall, be aware: Higher water levels are expected and might affect your plans. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Read on for more information, broken down by activity:\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#swimming\">Swimming and kayaking\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#swimming\">Swimming and kayaking\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#hiking\">Biking and hiking\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#camping\">Camping\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
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"text": "Beware of debris and high shorelines while swimming and kayaking",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"swimming\">Beware of debris and high shorelines while swimming and kayaking\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>A main signal of this year’s expected “super El Niño” is particularly warm water in the Pacific Ocean. While that might sound ideal for swimmers, Sylvia Lacock, co-founder of Pacific Open Water Swim Co. and a master captain, said otherwise. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>A main signal of this year’s expected “super El Niño” is particularly warm water in the Pacific Ocean. While that might sound ideal for swimmers, Sylvia Lacock, co-founder of Pacific Open Water Swim Co. and a master captain, said otherwise. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>First, she said, her clients who actively seek out cold-water swimming to qualify or train for international competitions are having to push their scheduled swim dates back deeper toward winter. But more relevant to casual swimmers, she said, is that flooding due to higher tides and sea levels could engulf beaches and docks, making getting in the water to enjoy it difficult. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>First, she said, her clients who actively seek out cold-water swimming to qualify or train for international competitions are having to push their scheduled swim dates back deeper toward winter. But more relevant to casual swimmers, she said, is that flooding due to higher tides and sea levels could engulf beaches and docks, making getting in the water to enjoy it difficult. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12103551\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Floodwaters covered roads in Marin County as residents Jill Sherman and her kids, Imogen and Zander Smith, kayak on the bike trail during high tide between Sausalito and Mill Valley during rainy weather on Jan. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12103551\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Floodwaters covered roads in Marin County as residents Jill Sherman and her kids, Imogen and Zander Smith, kayak on the bike trail during high tide between Sausalito and Mill Valley during rainy weather on Jan. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Constant rain, constant storms, how it ends up impacting kite surfers, windsurfers and swimmers, is that with a higher tide, we lose beach,” she said. “So if you’re used to having a lot of beach to maybe go in and off of in Aquatic Park or at Crissy Field, you might find that that beach feels a lot smaller just because the water’s up a lot higher.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Constant rain, constant storms, how it ends up impacting kite surfers, windsurfers and swimmers, is that with a higher tide, we lose beach,” she said. “So if you’re used to having a lot of beach to maybe go in and off of in Aquatic Park or at Crissy Field, you might find that that beach feels a lot smaller just because the water’s up a lot higher.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Galen Licht, CEO and co-owner of kayak rental company SeaTrek, said a group of high school students on a trip to Angel Island last week struggled with the already-high tides.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Galen Licht, CEO and co-owner of kayak rental company SeaTrek, said a group of high school students on a trip to Angel Island last week struggled with the already-high tides.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The beach was nearly gone, and [on] the walkway that we would normally take to get up to the campsite, they were walking in waist-deep water,” he said. “It kind of caught us off guard a little bit.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The beach was nearly gone, and [on] the walkway that we would normally take to get up to the campsite, they were walking in waist-deep water,” he said. “It kind of caught us off guard a little bit.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Plus, Lacock said, areas around shorelines could also be flooded with debris, adding hazards to the water for swimmers. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Every single year we see this,” she said. “When we have storms that come through, now add a higher tide to it. Whether it’s piers or docks, that breaks off, and it ends up floating in the bay.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Every single year we see this,” she said. “When we have storms that come through, now add a higher tide to it. Whether it’s piers or docks, that breaks off, and it ends up floating in the bay.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>For boaters, these floating hazards are an added challenge, she said. Swimmers have to watch for broken pieces of piers and even kite surfers may have to worry about “items that may be just submerged under the surface of the water,” she said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>For boaters, these floating hazards are an added challenge, she said. Swimmers have to watch for broken pieces of piers and even kite surfers may have to worry about “items that may be just submerged under the surface of the water,” she said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Lacock said she’s particularly concerned about the area around \u003ca href=\"https://www.nps.gov/safr/learn/historyculture/aquatic-park-pier.htm\">San Francisco’s Muni Pier\u003c/a>, which has been in disrepair since it closed in 2022 due to structural damage from an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Lacock said she’s particularly concerned about the area around \u003ca href=\"https://www.nps.gov/safr/learn/historyculture/aquatic-park-pier.htm\">San Francisco’s Muni Pier\u003c/a>, which has been in disrepair since it closed in 2022 due to structural damage from an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Licht, whose company operates kayak launches in Alameda and Sausalito, said he is “making sure things are extra tied down” and “preparing to be more flexible than ever this winter.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Licht, whose company operates kayak launches in Alameda and Sausalito, said he is “making sure things are extra tied down” and “preparing to be more flexible than ever this winter.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In general, Lacock said swimmers should avoid getting into the water immediately after a storm, especially the first big storm of the winter season. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In general, Lacock said swimmers should avoid getting into the water immediately after a storm, especially the first big storm of the winter season. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“You may want to not be in the water for the first 24 or 48 hours after that,” she said. “We like that tide cycle to kind of flush that water out.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“You may want to not be in the water for the first 24 or 48 hours after that,” she said. “We like that tide cycle to kind of flush that water out.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"attrs": {
"text": "Watch for flooding on popular hiking and biking trails",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hiking\">Watch for flooding on popular hiking and biking trails\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The compounding effects of higher sea levels, Kelvin waves, King Tides and whatever else this El Niño winter might bring won’t just affect people recreating \u003cem>in \u003c/em>the water. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The compounding effects of higher sea levels, Kelvin waves, King Tides and whatever else this El Niño winter might bring won’t just affect people recreating \u003cem>in \u003c/em>the water. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Dan Sauter, operations superintendent for Marin County Parks, said his agency is preparing for the potential “stacking” of higher tides onto its bayside parks and open space preserves.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Dan Sauter, operations superintendent for Marin County Parks, said his agency is preparing for the potential “stacking” of higher tides onto its bayside parks and open space preserves.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Over the past few weeks, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.parks.marincounty.gov/parkspreserves/parks/mill-valley-sausalito-pathway\">Mill Valley-Sausalito multi-use path\u003c/a> — a connecting route for bikers and hikers that routinely floods in winter — has already been submerged, he said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Over the past few weeks, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.parks.marincounty.gov/parkspreserves/parks/mill-valley-sausalito-pathway\">Mill Valley-Sausalito multi-use path\u003c/a> — a connecting route for bikers and hikers that routinely floods in winter — has already been submerged, he said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Typically, the path floods when tides are about 6 feet high, he said, but that number could go down if there are more factors in play.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Typically, the path floods when tides are about 6 feet high, he said, but that number could go down if there are more factors in play.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12103556\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a-1536x1150.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Floodwaters covered roads in Marin County as residents kayak on the bike trail during high tide between Sausalito and Mill Valley during rainy weather on Jan. 3, 2026. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12103556\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Floodwaters covered roads in Marin County as residents kayak on the bike trail during high tide between Sausalito and Mill Valley during rainy weather on Jan. 3, 2026. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’re expecting the tides to impact it at a lower projected tide number,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In fact, the multi-use trail floods so often that there is currently an \u003ca href=\"https://www.onetam.org/our-work/bothin-marsh\">effort underway to redesign it\u003c/a>, said Rob LaPorte, a senior project manager with the Golden Gate National Parks Conservancy who has been working on improvements to the trail. He said rerouting the path isn’t particularly feasible given its location sandwiched between the bay and Highways 1 and 101.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In fact, the multi-use trail floods so often that there is currently an \u003ca href=\"https://www.onetam.org/our-work/bothin-marsh\">effort underway to redesign it\u003c/a>, said Rob LaPorte, a senior project manager with the Golden Gate National Parks Conservancy who has been working on improvements to the trail. He said rerouting the path isn’t particularly feasible given its location sandwiched between the bay and Highways 1 and 101.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’re looking at significantly raising it by approximately 6.5 feet, 7 feet just to make it more storm-proof,” he said. “And then we’re also looking at ways to restore the natural processes at this marsh to help that ecosystem adapt to higher waters.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We’re looking at significantly raising it by approximately 6.5 feet, 7 feet just to make it more storm-proof,” he said. “And then we’re also looking at ways to restore the natural processes at this marsh to help that ecosystem adapt to higher waters.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>SeaTrek’s Licht said some customers even rent kayaks in Sausalito specifically to paddle through the flooded marsh. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>SeaTrek’s Licht said some customers even rent kayaks in Sausalito specifically to paddle through the flooded marsh. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It’s wild,” he said. “Literally our kayakers can paddle across the bike path — and they do.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It’s wild,” he said. “Literally our kayakers can paddle across the bike path — and they do.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-1536x1023.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-1920x1279.jpg 1920w",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12018233\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People walk along the Embarcadero during a high king tide in San Francisco on Dec. 13, 2024.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Also of concern in Marin County are the Miller Boat Launch in Tomales Bay, Black Point Boat Launch in San Pablo Bay and McNears Beach and McInnis Park in San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Also of concern in Marin County are the Miller Boat Launch in Tomales Bay, Black Point Boat Launch in San Pablo Bay and McNears Beach and McInnis Park in San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Sauter said Marin County Parks stations rangers around the multi-use trail and other parks to let people know about potential flooding or advise them when trails are closed. They’ve even started pre-making signs to put up advising hikers and bikers to prepare for flooding impacts. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Sauter said Marin County Parks stations rangers around the multi-use trail and other parks to let people know about potential flooding or advise them when trails are closed. They’ve even started pre-making signs to put up advising hikers and bikers to prepare for flooding impacts. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If a storm is significant, we may be closing regional parks or areas that are unsafe to visitors,” he said. “So we’re prepared to do that.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If a storm is significant, we may be closing regional parks or areas that are unsafe to visitors,” he said. “So we’re prepared to do that.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>LaPorte said his main concern going into this potentially historic winter is that park infrastructure, designed to handle historical averages of rainfall, may not be up to the task.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>LaPorte said his main concern going into this potentially historic winter is that park infrastructure, designed to handle historical averages of rainfall, may not be up to the task.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“With this El Niño event and the potential for big storms that are associated with climate change — and then add on top of that the Kelvin wave — we’re just anticipating there being a lot more water that’s affecting trails throughout the parks,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“With this El Niño event and the potential for big storms that are associated with climate change — and then add on top of that the Kelvin wave — we’re just anticipating there being a lot more water that’s affecting trails throughout the parks,” he said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Sauter said hikers and bikers should simply stay home during a storm.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Sauter said hikers and bikers should simply stay home during a storm.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It’s always a good idea to check your weather when you’re heading out and your tide logs,” he said. “There’s a good chunk of people that aren’t expecting to come across a multi-use path underwater on just a regular nice day. But it does happen out there.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It’s always a good idea to check your weather when you’re heading out and your tide logs,” he said. “There’s a good chunk of people that aren’t expecting to come across a multi-use path underwater on just a regular nice day. But it does happen out there.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>After a storm, clearing sediment and other debris off the path and other flooded areas also takes time, Sauter said, so be patient.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>After a storm, clearing sediment and other debris off the path and other flooded areas also takes time, Sauter said, so be patient.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’re all expecting the worst and hoping for the best and preparing for anything,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“We’re all expecting the worst and hoping for the best and preparing for anything,” he said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"attrs": {
"text": "Stay tuned for coastal campground closures",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"camping\">Stay tuned for coastal campground closures\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"camping\">Stay tuned for coastal campground closures\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If you’ve got fall camping plans, particularly if your site is on or near the bay or ocean, be sure to double-check your reservation is still on before you head out.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>If you’ve got fall camping plans, particularly if your site is on or near the bay or ocean, be sure to double-check your reservation is still on before you head out.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Peter Ostroskie, spokesperson for California State Parks’ Bay Area district, said anyone with a camping reservation this winter should check the website of the park they’re going to before heading out. Some state parks also use social media to keep visitors informed, he said. And if you’re ever in doubt about safety or weather conditions at a park, you can always call the number of the park listed on its website for the most up-to-date information.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Peter Ostroskie, spokesperson for California State Parks’ Bay Area district, said anyone with a camping reservation this winter should check the website of the park they’re going to before heading out. Some state parks also use social media to keep visitors informed, he said. And if you’re ever in doubt about safety or weather conditions at a park, you can always call the number of the park listed on its website for the most up-to-date information.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’re happy to give you updates or let you know what’s going on and what are the conditions right now,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“We’re happy to give you updates or let you know what’s going on and what are the conditions right now,” he said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12066250\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Flooding near the Highway 101 Sausalito/Mill Valley exit in Sausalito on Dec. 4, 2025, during a king tide event.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12066250\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Flooding near the Highway 101 Sausalito/Mill Valley exit in Sausalito on Dec. 4, 2025, during a king tide event.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If you are planning to camp during wet weather, make sure you have the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12064291/winter-camping-reservations-where-to-go-campsites-near-san-francisco-bay-area\">proper gear and are prepared to leave in case of emergency\u003c/a>. Ostroskie said state parks staff are preparing for a wet winter by staging equipment and readying communications to handle potential flooding or other effects of rising sea levels. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>If you are planning to camp during wet weather, make sure you have the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12064291/winter-camping-reservations-where-to-go-campsites-near-san-francisco-bay-area\">proper gear and are prepared to leave in case of emergency\u003c/a>. Ostroskie said state parks staff are preparing for a wet winter by staging equipment and readying communications to handle potential flooding or other effects of rising sea levels. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Parks like Angel Island, China Camp, Tomales Bay, Mt. Tam and Candlestick are of particular concern, Ostroskie said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Parks like Angel Island, China Camp, Tomales Bay, Mt. Tam and Candlestick are of particular concern, Ostroskie said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>He said he’s also worried about a park like Samuel P. Taylor State Park, whose Lagunitas Creek can rise dramatically during storms.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>He said he’s also worried about a park like Samuel P. Taylor State Park, whose Lagunitas Creek can rise dramatically during storms.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The creek floods really high, so we actually close off the creekside campground,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“The creek floods really high, so we actually close off the creekside campground,” he said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Landslides, fallen trees and power lines are also typical stormy weather concerns for parks, Ostroskie said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Landslides, fallen trees and power lines are also typical stormy weather concerns for parks, Ostroskie said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>For oceanside campgrounds, bad weather and consistent big waves can threaten infrastructure, he said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>For oceanside campgrounds, bad weather and consistent big waves can threaten infrastructure, he said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It’ll probably take us a little bit longer to open up the season, especially when we hit spring and summer, just because we’ll be doing repairs and fixing things,” he said. “And sometimes that takes a little time.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It’ll probably take us a little bit longer to open up the season, especially when we hit spring and summer, just because we’ll be doing repairs and fixing things,” he said. “And sometimes that takes a little time.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "Winter storms could close campgrounds, trails and threaten park infrastructure.",
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"title": "A Kelvin Wave on Top of El Niño? What Bay Area Hikers, Bikers, Swimmers and Campers Should Know This Winter | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12103307/cautiously-optimistic-the-latest-on-el-nino-and-tahoes-ski-season\">latest El Niño forecasts\u003c/a> show the Bay Area could be in for a particularly wet winter, affecting any late-season outdoor trips locals typically save for the region’s “second summer” in October. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But a new threat on the horizon, called a “\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002141/an-el-nino-driven-kelvin-wave-could-raise-bay-area-sea-levels-and-flooding-risk\">Kelvin wave\u003c/a>,” could also spoil plans for late-season hiking, biking and water sports. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>First predicted to hit in mid- to late-October, this warm-water phenomenon could raise Bay Area sea levels by up to a foot. On top of already-high sea levels, potential wet weather and seasonal King Tides, coastal regions could be in for some pretty severe flooding. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So if you’ve got a coastal campsite booked, maybe a long bike ride up to Marin planned, or a kayaking or swimming trip coming up this fall, be aware: Higher water levels are expected and might affect your plans. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Read on for more information, broken down by activity:\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#swimming\">Swimming and kayaking\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#hiking\">Biking and hiking\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"#camping\">Camping\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"swimming\">Beware of debris and high shorelines while swimming and kayaking\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A main signal of this year’s expected “super El Niño” is particularly warm water in the Pacific Ocean. While that might sound ideal for swimmers, Sylvia Lacock, co-founder of Pacific Open Water Swim Co. and a master captain, said otherwise. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>First, she said, her clients who actively seek out cold-water swimming to qualify or train for international competitions are having to push their scheduled swim dates back deeper toward winter. But more relevant to casual swimmers, she said, is that flooding due to higher tides and sea levels could engulf beaches and docks, making getting in the water to enjoy it difficult. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12103551\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty2-b7702575-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Floodwaters covered roads in Marin County as residents Jill Sherman and her kids, Imogen and Zander Smith, kayak on the bike trail during high tide between Sausalito and Mill Valley during rainy weather on Jan. 3, 2026. (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Constant rain, constant storms, how it ends up impacting kite surfers, windsurfers and swimmers, is that with a higher tide, we lose beach,” she said. “So if you’re used to having a lot of beach to maybe go in and off of in Aquatic Park or at Crissy Field, you might find that that beach feels a lot smaller just because the water’s up a lot higher.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Galen Licht, CEO and co-owner of kayak rental company SeaTrek, said a group of high school students on a trip to Angel Island last week struggled with the already-high tides.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The beach was nearly gone, and [on] the walkway that we would normally take to get up to the campsite, they were walking in waist-deep water,” he said. “It kind of caught us off guard a little bit.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Plus, Lacock said, areas around shorelines could also be flooded with debris, adding hazards to the water for swimmers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Every single year we see this,” she said. “When we have storms that come through, now add a higher tide to it. Whether it’s piers or docks, that breaks off, and it ends up floating in the bay.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For boaters, these floating hazards are an added challenge, she said. Swimmers have to watch for broken pieces of piers and even kite surfers may have to worry about “items that may be just submerged under the surface of the water,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Lacock said she’s particularly concerned about the area around \u003ca href=\"https://www.nps.gov/safr/learn/historyculture/aquatic-park-pier.htm\">San Francisco’s Muni Pier\u003c/a>, which has been in disrepair since it closed in 2022 due to structural damage from an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Licht, whose company operates kayak launches in Alameda and Sausalito, said he is “making sure things are extra tied down” and “preparing to be more flexible than ever this winter.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In general, Lacock said swimmers should avoid getting into the water immediately after a storm, especially the first big storm of the winter season. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“You may want to not be in the water for the first 24 or 48 hours after that,” she said. “We like that tide cycle to kind of flush that water out.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hiking\">Watch for flooding on popular hiking and biking trails\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The compounding effects of higher sea levels, Kelvin waves, King Tides and whatever else this El Niño winter might bring won’t just affect people recreating \u003cem>in \u003c/em>the water. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Dan Sauter, operations superintendent for Marin County Parks, said his agency is preparing for the potential “stacking” of higher tides onto its bayside parks and open space preserves.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Over the past few weeks, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.parks.marincounty.gov/parkspreserves/parks/mill-valley-sausalito-pathway\">Mill Valley-Sausalito multi-use path\u003c/a> — a connecting route for bikers and hikers that routinely floods in winter — has already been submerged, he said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Typically, the path floods when tides are about 6 feet high, he said, but that number could go down if there are more factors in play.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1498\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12103556\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/10/KelvinWavesGetty3-eecc658a-1536x1150.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Floodwaters covered roads in Marin County as residents kayak on the bike trail during high tide between Sausalito and Mill Valley during rainy weather on Jan. 3, 2026. (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re expecting the tides to impact it at a lower projected tide number,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In fact, the multi-use trail floods so often that there is currently an \u003ca href=\"https://www.onetam.org/our-work/bothin-marsh\">effort underway to redesign it\u003c/a>, said Rob LaPorte, a senior project manager with the Golden Gate National Parks Conservancy who has been working on improvements to the trail. He said rerouting the path isn’t particularly feasible given its location sandwiched between the bay and Highways 1 and 101.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re looking at significantly raising it by approximately 6.5 feet, 7 feet just to make it more storm-proof,” he said. “And then we’re also looking at ways to restore the natural processes at this marsh to help that ecosystem adapt to higher waters.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>SeaTrek’s Licht said some customers even rent kayaks in Sausalito specifically to paddle through the flooded marsh. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s wild,” he said. “Literally our kayakers can paddle across the bike path — and they do.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1332\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12018233\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-1536x1023.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/241213-PortFlood-82-1920x1279.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People walk along the Embarcadero during a high king tide in San Francisco on Dec. 13, 2024. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Also of concern in Marin County are the Miller Boat Launch in Tomales Bay, Black Point Boat Launch in San Pablo Bay and McNears Beach and McInnis Park in San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sauter said Marin County Parks stations rangers around the multi-use trail and other parks to let people know about potential flooding or advise them when trails are closed. They’ve even started pre-making signs to put up advising hikers and bikers to prepare for flooding impacts. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If a storm is significant, we may be closing regional parks or areas that are unsafe to visitors,” he said. “So we’re prepared to do that.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>LaPorte said his main concern going into this potentially historic winter is that park infrastructure, designed to handle historical averages of rainfall, may not be up to the task.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“With this El Niño event and the potential for big storms that are associated with climate change — and then add on top of that the Kelvin wave — we’re just anticipating there being a lot more water that’s affecting trails throughout the parks,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sauter said hikers and bikers should simply stay home during a storm.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s always a good idea to check your weather when you’re heading out and your tide logs,” he said. “There’s a good chunk of people that aren’t expecting to come across a multi-use path underwater on just a regular nice day. But it does happen out there.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>After a storm, clearing sediment and other debris off the path and other flooded areas also takes time, Sauter said, so be patient.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re all expecting the worst and hoping for the best and preparing for anything,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"camping\">Stay tuned for coastal campground closures\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If you’ve got fall camping plans, particularly if your site is on or near the bay or ocean, be sure to double-check your reservation is still on before you head out.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Peter Ostroskie, spokesperson for California State Parks’ Bay Area district, said anyone with a camping reservation this winter should check the website of the park they’re going to before heading out. Some state parks also use social media to keep visitors informed, he said. And if you’re ever in doubt about safety or weather conditions at a park, you can always call the number of the park listed on its website for the most up-to-date information.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re happy to give you updates or let you know what’s going on and what are the conditions right now,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12066250\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/251204-KINGTIDE-40-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Flooding near the Highway 101 Sausalito/Mill Valley exit in Sausalito on Dec. 4, 2025, during a king tide event. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If you are planning to camp during wet weather, make sure you have the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12064291/winter-camping-reservations-where-to-go-campsites-near-san-francisco-bay-area\">proper gear and are prepared to leave in case of emergency\u003c/a>. Ostroskie said state parks staff are preparing for a wet winter by staging equipment and readying communications to handle potential flooding or other effects of rising sea levels. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Parks like Angel Island, China Camp, Tomales Bay, Mt. Tam and Candlestick are of particular concern, Ostroskie said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He said he’s also worried about a park like Samuel P. Taylor State Park, whose Lagunitas Creek can rise dramatically during storms.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The creek floods really high, so we actually close off the creekside campground,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Landslides, fallen trees and power lines are also typical stormy weather concerns for parks, Ostroskie said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For oceanside campgrounds, bad weather and consistent big waves can threaten infrastructure, he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’ll probably take us a little bit longer to open up the season, especially when we hit spring and summer, just because we’ll be doing repairs and fixing things,” he said. “And sometimes that takes a little time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "cautiously-optimistic-the-latest-on-el-nino-and-tahoes-ski-season",
"title": "‘Cautiously Optimistic’: The Latest on El Niño and Tahoe’s Ski Season",
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"headTitle": "‘Cautiously Optimistic’: The Latest on El Niño and Tahoe’s Ski Season | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>Will this ski season be the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12096560/el-nino-snow-weather-forecast-sierra-nevada-tahoe-california-ski-pass-winter-2026-2027\">best ever\u003c/a>? Or, with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12099961/scientists-warn-this-years-el-nino-can-trigger-unprecedented-flooding\">report\u003c/a> after \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12097546/el-nino-could-bring-a-wet-wild-winter-how-can-you-and-your-home-be-ready\">report\u003c/a> of a “super El Niño” that will slam the West Coast with rain and snow, will skiers’ expectations pale in comparison to reality?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The answer, OpenSnow forecaster Bryan Allegretto said, is still far from clear. And for him, a big part of this uncertainty is that “we don’t have much data on strong El Niños.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In fact, there have only really been four winters since 1970 to be considered “strong” El Niños, Allegretto said. Of those, half produced above-average snowfall, including the \u003ca href=\"https://www.skimag.com/ski-resort-life/10-deepest-winters-recent-history/\">1982-83 season\u003c/a>, when total snowfall came in at 170% of average. But the other half produced below-average snowfall. And going back to 1950, he sees four of seven “strong” El Niños resulting in big snow years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12077403\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The ski area at Homewood has closed due to poor snow conditions as viewed on April 14, 2021, in Homewood, California. (George Rose/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“So if you were just going to look historically, there’s no clear signal,” he said. “They haven’t been consistent as far as snowfall.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That said, the two years that did overproduce did so … \u003cem>enormously\u003c/em>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you were to look at the average … it’s like 138% of average snowfall, but that isn’t fair to the years that are below-average,” he said. “Because there’s so much that can happen in the middle of the year that can affect our weather pattern.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Jump straight to:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#skiing-winter\">What does all this mean for skiing this winter?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#open\">When are Tahoe ski resorts scheduled to open?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That was the case with the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2016/01/01/461693346/ski-resorts-see-slight-thaw-after-chilling-effect-of-climate-change\">2015-16 season\u003c/a>, Allegretto said. There was a similar air of hype around El Niño conditions, but ultimately, the winter’s snowfall was just 97% of average, slightly \u003cem>below \u003c/em>a typical year.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So what does today’s forecast mean for ski season? Allegretto breaks it down below.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is the El Niño forecast saying today?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>First, Allegretto warned that it takes three consecutive months of higher-than-normal ocean surface temperatures before one can even declare an El Niño — let alone a “strong” or “very strong” El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So far, he said, water temperatures are about 2.2 degrees above average. The 2015-16 season was 2.3 degrees above the average. If we reach 2.5 degrees above normal, he said, that would be a record. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“At the end of September, it was the warmest the water has been at this point in the fall along the equator where they measure,” he said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1500\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12033987\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sierra snow scene near Lake Tahoe, late December, 2015. (Courtesy Mikee Gildea)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/el-nino-rain-california-22465614.php\">Monday’s updated models\u003c/a> showed even more reason to believe it will be an unusually wet winter. But it’s not yet clear if that trend will continue — or what other factors will be in play.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We had a ‘super’ El Niño in 15-16 with below-average snowfall,” he said. “But there were things happening that year in the Atlantic and the Northern Pacific that were messing with the weather pattern. And it was causing most of the storms to go to the north of California and the Pacific Northwest.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>What’s tough to know is whether this season’s El Niño pattern will be the most prevailing, or if other weather systems in January or February will interfere. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In theory, Allegretto said, this year’s El Niño “should be the most dominant factor.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Still, he said he is only “cautiously optimistic.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I think we will see above average snow and rain,” he said. “But am I willing to say that we’re going to get a year like 1982-83?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“No,” he said. “Only very risky people say those kinds of things.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"skiing-winter\">What does all this mean for skiing this winter?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>All in all, Allegretto said he is “pretty excited” for the ski season. After all, as OpenSnow’s expert on California and the Lake Tahoe region, it’s \u003ca href=\"https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe/post/44538\">his job to update skiers and snowboarders\u003c/a> about the winter weather. This week, he started \u003ca href=\"https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe\">posting his weekly forecasts\u003c/a> and said that come opening day at ski resorts in November, he will start posting daily.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I just hope the storms stay cold enough, the snow levels stay low, and we don’t end up with a bunch of rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Allegretto isn’t the only one hedging. In a \u003ca href=\"https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/atqfkmbd/#Slides_6\">recent earnings call\u003c/a>, Vail Resorts CEO Rob Katz told investors that sales of Epic Passes, which give local skiers access to three Lake Tahoe resorts, are 12% down this year. Katz attributed the drop in part to last year’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12077367/tahoe-ski-resorts-closing-dates-2026-heavenly-palisades-homewood-closed-weather-snow-forecast-storms\">disappointing snowfall\u003c/a>, which closed many resorts prematurely. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In general, Allegretto said strong El Niños tend to produce the most snowfall in February and January, calling them “make-or-break months.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Still, he was careful not to overstate the possibility of a banger ski season.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I just don’t hype, even if it looks like it’s going to be a decent year,” Allegretto said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He even warned that too much snow could bring different problems for skiers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“You don’t want too much snow because then the ski resorts are closed, the highway’s closed,” he said. “I just prefer good storms that are easy to chase.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“You only need shin-deep powder to have fun,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"open\">Those California ski resort opening dates so far:\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Mammoth Mountain: Nov. 13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Heavenly Ski Resort: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Northstar California Resort: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Mount Rose Ski Tahoe: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Palisades Tahoe: Nov. 25\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kirkwood Mountain Resort: Dec. 4\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Will this ski season be the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12096560/el-nino-snow-weather-forecast-sierra-nevada-tahoe-california-ski-pass-winter-2026-2027\">best ever\u003c/a>? Or, with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12099961/scientists-warn-this-years-el-nino-can-trigger-unprecedented-flooding\">report\u003c/a> after \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12097546/el-nino-could-bring-a-wet-wild-winter-how-can-you-and-your-home-be-ready\">report\u003c/a> of a “super El Niño” that will slam the West Coast with rain and snow, will skiers’ expectations pale in comparison to reality?\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The answer, OpenSnow forecaster Bryan Allegretto said, is still far from clear. And for him, a big part of this uncertainty is that “we don’t have much data on strong El Niños.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In fact, there have only really been four winters since 1970 to be considered “strong” El Niños, Allegretto said. Of those, half produced above-average snowfall, including the \u003ca href=\"https://www.skimag.com/ski-resort-life/10-deepest-winters-recent-history/\">1982-83 season\u003c/a>, when total snowfall came in at 170% of average. But the other half produced below-average snowfall. And going back to 1950, he sees four of seven “strong” El Niños resulting in big snow years.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In fact, there have only really been four winters since 1970 to be considered “strong” El Niños, Allegretto said. Of those, half produced above-average snowfall, including the \u003ca href=\"https://www.skimag.com/ski-resort-life/10-deepest-winters-recent-history/\">1982-83 season\u003c/a>, when total snowfall came in at 170% of average. But the other half produced below-average snowfall. And going back to 1950, he sees four of seven “strong” El Niños resulting in big snow years.\u003c/p>\n"
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"sizes": "(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12077403\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The ski area at Homewood has closed due to poor snow conditions as viewed on April 14, 2021, in Homewood, California. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (George Rose/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12077403\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The ski area at Homewood has closed due to poor snow conditions as viewed on April 14, 2021, in Homewood, California. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (George Rose/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“So if you were just going to look historically, there’s no clear signal,” he said. “They haven’t been consistent as far as snowfall.”\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“So if you were just going to look historically, there’s no clear signal,” he said. “They haven’t been consistent as far as snowfall.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That said, the two years that did overproduce did so … \u003cem>enormously\u003c/em>. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>That said, the two years that did overproduce did so … \u003cem>enormously\u003c/em>. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If you were to look at the average … it’s like 138% of average snowfall, but that isn’t fair to the years that are below-average,” he said. “Because there’s so much that can happen in the middle of the year that can affect our weather pattern.”\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“If you were to look at the average … it’s like 138% of average snowfall, but that isn’t fair to the years that are below-average,” he said. “Because there’s so much that can happen in the middle of the year that can affect our weather pattern.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Jump straight to:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n",
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"What does all this mean for skiing this winter?",
"When are Tahoe ski resorts scheduled to open?"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#skiing-winter\">What does all this mean for skiing this winter?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#skiing-winter\">What does all this mean for skiing this winter?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#open\">When are Tahoe ski resorts scheduled to open?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#open\">When are Tahoe ski resorts scheduled to open?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That was the case with the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2016/01/01/461693346/ski-resorts-see-slight-thaw-after-chilling-effect-of-climate-change\">2015-16 season\u003c/a>, Allegretto said. There was a similar air of hype around El Niño conditions, but ultimately, the winter’s snowfall was just 97% of average, slightly \u003cem>below \u003c/em>a typical year.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>That was the case with the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2016/01/01/461693346/ski-resorts-see-slight-thaw-after-chilling-effect-of-climate-change\">2015-16 season\u003c/a>, Allegretto said. There was a similar air of hype around El Niño conditions, but ultimately, the winter’s snowfall was just 97% of average, slightly \u003cem>below \u003c/em>a typical year.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So what does today’s forecast mean for ski season? Allegretto breaks it down below.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>So what does today’s forecast mean for ski season? Allegretto breaks it down below.\u003c/p>\n"
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"attrs": {
"text": "What is the El Niño forecast saying today?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is the El Niño forecast saying today?\u003c/h2>\n",
"innerContent": [
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>First, Allegretto warned that it takes three consecutive months of higher-than-normal ocean surface temperatures before one can even declare an El Niño — let alone a “strong” or “very strong” El Niño.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>First, Allegretto warned that it takes three consecutive months of higher-than-normal ocean surface temperatures before one can even declare an El Niño — let alone a “strong” or “very strong” El Niño.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So far, he said, water temperatures are about 2.2 degrees above average. The 2015-16 season was 2.3 degrees above the average. If we reach 2.5 degrees above normal, he said, that would be a record. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>So far, he said, water temperatures are about 2.2 degrees above average. The 2015-16 season was 2.3 degrees above the average. If we reach 2.5 degrees above normal, he said, that would be a record. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“At the end of September, it was the warmest the water has been at this point in the fall along the equator where they measure,” he said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“At the end of September, it was the warmest the water has been at this point in the fall along the equator where they measure,” he said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12033987\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sierra snow scene near Lake Tahoe, late December, 2015.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy Mikee Gildea)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12033987\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sierra snow scene near Lake Tahoe, late December, 2015.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy Mikee Gildea)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/el-nino-rain-california-22465614.php\">Monday’s updated models\u003c/a> showed even more reason to believe it will be an unusually wet winter. But it’s not yet clear if that trend will continue — or what other factors will be in play.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/el-nino-rain-california-22465614.php\">Monday’s updated models\u003c/a> showed even more reason to believe it will be an unusually wet winter. But it’s not yet clear if that trend will continue — or what other factors will be in play.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We had a ‘super’ El Niño in 15-16 with below-average snowfall,” he said. “But there were things happening that year in the Atlantic and the Northern Pacific that were messing with the weather pattern. And it was causing most of the storms to go to the north of California and the Pacific Northwest.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We had a ‘super’ El Niño in 15-16 with below-average snowfall,” he said. “But there were things happening that year in the Atlantic and the Northern Pacific that were messing with the weather pattern. And it was causing most of the storms to go to the north of California and the Pacific Northwest.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>What’s tough to know is whether this season’s El Niño pattern will be the most prevailing, or if other weather systems in January or February will interfere. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>What’s tough to know is whether this season’s El Niño pattern will be the most prevailing, or if other weather systems in January or February will interfere. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In theory, Allegretto said, this year’s El Niño “should be the most dominant factor.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In theory, Allegretto said, this year’s El Niño “should be the most dominant factor.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Still, he said he is only “cautiously optimistic.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I think we will see above average snow and rain,” he said. “But am I willing to say that we’re going to get a year like 1982-83?\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I think we will see above average snow and rain,” he said. “But am I willing to say that we’re going to get a year like 1982-83?\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“No,” he said. “Only very risky people say those kinds of things.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“No,” he said. “Only very risky people say those kinds of things.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "What does all this mean for skiing this winter?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"skiing-winter\">What does all this mean for skiing this winter?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>All in all, Allegretto said he is “pretty excited” for the ski season. After all, as OpenSnow’s expert on California and the Lake Tahoe region, it’s \u003ca href=\"https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe/post/44538\">his job to update skiers and snowboarders\u003c/a> about the winter weather. This week, he started \u003ca href=\"https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe\">posting his weekly forecasts\u003c/a> and said that come opening day at ski resorts in November, he will start posting daily.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>All in all, Allegretto said he is “pretty excited” for the ski season. After all, as OpenSnow’s expert on California and the Lake Tahoe region, it’s \u003ca href=\"https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe/post/44538\">his job to update skiers and snowboarders\u003c/a> about the winter weather. This week, he started \u003ca href=\"https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe\">posting his weekly forecasts\u003c/a> and said that come opening day at ski resorts in November, he will start posting daily.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I just hope the storms stay cold enough, the snow levels stay low, and we don’t end up with a bunch of rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I just hope the storms stay cold enough, the snow levels stay low, and we don’t end up with a bunch of rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Allegretto isn’t the only one hedging. In a \u003ca href=\"https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/atqfkmbd/#Slides_6\">recent earnings call\u003c/a>, Vail Resorts CEO Rob Katz told investors that sales of Epic Passes, which give local skiers access to three Lake Tahoe resorts, are 12% down this year. Katz attributed the drop in part to last year’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12077367/tahoe-ski-resorts-closing-dates-2026-heavenly-palisades-homewood-closed-weather-snow-forecast-storms\">disappointing snowfall\u003c/a>, which closed many resorts prematurely. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Allegretto isn’t the only one hedging. In a \u003ca href=\"https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/atqfkmbd/#Slides_6\">recent earnings call\u003c/a>, Vail Resorts CEO Rob Katz told investors that sales of Epic Passes, which give local skiers access to three Lake Tahoe resorts, are 12% down this year. Katz attributed the drop in part to last year’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12077367/tahoe-ski-resorts-closing-dates-2026-heavenly-palisades-homewood-closed-weather-snow-forecast-storms\">disappointing snowfall\u003c/a>, which closed many resorts prematurely. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In general, Allegretto said strong El Niños tend to produce the most snowfall in February and January, calling them “make-or-break months.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In general, Allegretto said strong El Niños tend to produce the most snowfall in February and January, calling them “make-or-break months.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Still, he was careful not to overstate the possibility of a banger ski season.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Still, he was careful not to overstate the possibility of a banger ski season.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I just don’t hype, even if it looks like it’s going to be a decent year,” Allegretto said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I just don’t hype, even if it looks like it’s going to be a decent year,” Allegretto said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>He even warned that too much snow could bring different problems for skiers. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>He even warned that too much snow could bring different problems for skiers. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“You don’t want too much snow because then the ski resorts are closed, the highway’s closed,” he said. “I just prefer good storms that are easy to chase.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“You don’t want too much snow because then the ski resorts are closed, the highway’s closed,” he said. “I just prefer good storms that are easy to chase.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“You only need shin-deep powder to have fun,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“You only need shin-deep powder to have fun,” he said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"attrs": {
"text": "Those California ski resort opening dates so far:",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"open\">Those California ski resort opening dates so far:\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"open\">Those California ski resort opening dates so far:\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Mammoth Mountain: Nov. 13\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Mammoth Mountain: Nov. 13\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Heavenly Ski Resort: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Northstar California Resort: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Mount Rose Ski Tahoe: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Mount Rose Ski Tahoe: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kirkwood Mountain Resort: Dec. 4\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "One forecaster breaks down the data — without buying into the hype.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Will this ski season be the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12096560/el-nino-snow-weather-forecast-sierra-nevada-tahoe-california-ski-pass-winter-2026-2027\">best ever\u003c/a>? Or, with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12099961/scientists-warn-this-years-el-nino-can-trigger-unprecedented-flooding\">report\u003c/a> after \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12097546/el-nino-could-bring-a-wet-wild-winter-how-can-you-and-your-home-be-ready\">report\u003c/a> of a “super El Niño” that will slam the West Coast with rain and snow, will skiers’ expectations pale in comparison to reality?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The answer, OpenSnow forecaster Bryan Allegretto said, is still far from clear. And for him, a big part of this uncertainty is that “we don’t have much data on strong El Niños.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In fact, there have only really been four winters since 1970 to be considered “strong” El Niños, Allegretto said. Of those, half produced above-average snowfall, including the \u003ca href=\"https://www.skimag.com/ski-resort-life/10-deepest-winters-recent-history/\">1982-83 season\u003c/a>, when total snowfall came in at 170% of average. But the other half produced below-average snowfall. And going back to 1950, he sees four of seven “strong” El Niños resulting in big snow years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12077403\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/03/TahoeSnowGetty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The ski area at Homewood has closed due to poor snow conditions as viewed on April 14, 2021, in Homewood, California. (George Rose/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“So if you were just going to look historically, there’s no clear signal,” he said. “They haven’t been consistent as far as snowfall.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That said, the two years that did overproduce did so … \u003cem>enormously\u003c/em>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you were to look at the average … it’s like 138% of average snowfall, but that isn’t fair to the years that are below-average,” he said. “Because there’s so much that can happen in the middle of the year that can affect our weather pattern.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Jump straight to:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#skiing-winter\">What does all this mean for skiing this winter?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#open\">When are Tahoe ski resorts scheduled to open?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That was the case with the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2016/01/01/461693346/ski-resorts-see-slight-thaw-after-chilling-effect-of-climate-change\">2015-16 season\u003c/a>, Allegretto said. There was a similar air of hype around El Niño conditions, but ultimately, the winter’s snowfall was just 97% of average, slightly \u003cem>below \u003c/em>a typical year.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So what does today’s forecast mean for ski season? Allegretto breaks it down below.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is the El Niño forecast saying today?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>First, Allegretto warned that it takes three consecutive months of higher-than-normal ocean surface temperatures before one can even declare an El Niño — let alone a “strong” or “very strong” El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So far, he said, water temperatures are about 2.2 degrees above average. The 2015-16 season was 2.3 degrees above the average. If we reach 2.5 degrees above normal, he said, that would be a record. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“At the end of September, it was the warmest the water has been at this point in the fall along the equator where they measure,” he said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1500\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12033987\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/SierraSnow2-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sierra snow scene near Lake Tahoe, late December, 2015. (Courtesy Mikee Gildea)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/el-nino-rain-california-22465614.php\">Monday’s updated models\u003c/a> showed even more reason to believe it will be an unusually wet winter. But it’s not yet clear if that trend will continue — or what other factors will be in play.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We had a ‘super’ El Niño in 15-16 with below-average snowfall,” he said. “But there were things happening that year in the Atlantic and the Northern Pacific that were messing with the weather pattern. And it was causing most of the storms to go to the north of California and the Pacific Northwest.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>What’s tough to know is whether this season’s El Niño pattern will be the most prevailing, or if other weather systems in January or February will interfere. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In theory, Allegretto said, this year’s El Niño “should be the most dominant factor.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Still, he said he is only “cautiously optimistic.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I think we will see above average snow and rain,” he said. “But am I willing to say that we’re going to get a year like 1982-83?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“No,” he said. “Only very risky people say those kinds of things.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"skiing-winter\">What does all this mean for skiing this winter?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>All in all, Allegretto said he is “pretty excited” for the ski season. After all, as OpenSnow’s expert on California and the Lake Tahoe region, it’s \u003ca href=\"https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe/post/44538\">his job to update skiers and snowboarders\u003c/a> about the winter weather. This week, he started \u003ca href=\"https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe\">posting his weekly forecasts\u003c/a> and said that come opening day at ski resorts in November, he will start posting daily.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I just hope the storms stay cold enough, the snow levels stay low, and we don’t end up with a bunch of rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Allegretto isn’t the only one hedging. In a \u003ca href=\"https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/atqfkmbd/#Slides_6\">recent earnings call\u003c/a>, Vail Resorts CEO Rob Katz told investors that sales of Epic Passes, which give local skiers access to three Lake Tahoe resorts, are 12% down this year. Katz attributed the drop in part to last year’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12077367/tahoe-ski-resorts-closing-dates-2026-heavenly-palisades-homewood-closed-weather-snow-forecast-storms\">disappointing snowfall\u003c/a>, which closed many resorts prematurely. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In general, Allegretto said strong El Niños tend to produce the most snowfall in February and January, calling them “make-or-break months.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Still, he was careful not to overstate the possibility of a banger ski season.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I just don’t hype, even if it looks like it’s going to be a decent year,” Allegretto said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He even warned that too much snow could bring different problems for skiers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“You don’t want too much snow because then the ski resorts are closed, the highway’s closed,” he said. “I just prefer good storms that are easy to chase.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“You only need shin-deep powder to have fun,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"open\">Those California ski resort opening dates so far:\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Mammoth Mountain: Nov. 13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Heavenly Ski Resort: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Northstar California Resort: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Mount Rose Ski Tahoe: Nov. 20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Palisades Tahoe: Nov. 25\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kirkwood Mountain Resort: Dec. 4\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Bay Area Heat Wave Breaks Records in These 4 Cities, With Relief Ahead ",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>This week’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098784/summer-finally-kicks-off-in-san-francisco-with-hot-weather-stretch-across-the-bay-area\">heat wave\u003c/a> caused four Bay Area cities to break daily high records on Wednesday, and forecasters expect at least one more day of above-average heat this week.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>San Rafael reached 104 degrees, downtown Oakland soared to 97 degrees, San Francisco’s airport flew to 94 degrees, and Half Moon Bay peaked at 83 degrees, said Nicole Sarment, a Bay Area National Weather Service meteorologist.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Wednesday’s temperatures were \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098629/3-day-heat-wave-scorches-the-bay-area-this-week\">10 to 20 degrees\u003c/a> above normal for this time of year, though Sarment noted that September is the hottest month for most parts of the region. And according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the country experienced its \u003ca href=\"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608\">hottest\u003c/a> meteorological summer on record, while California set a record for its warmest August average temperature.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-25_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12098993\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-25_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-25_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-25_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People congregate at Crissy Field Beach in San Francisco on Sept. 9, 2026. Temperatures reached over 90 degrees in parts of San Francisco on Wednesday. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1537\" height=\"1025\" data-id=\"12098991\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-8.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12098991\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-8.jpg 1537w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-8-160x107.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1537px) 100vw, 1537px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A customer uses a water-spray fan at Bi-Rite Creamery in San Francisco’s Mission District on Sept. 9, 2026. Temperatures reached over 90 degrees in parts of San Francisco on Wednesday. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" data-id=\"12098992\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-13_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12098992\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-13_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-13_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-13_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People lay in the shade at Dolores Park in San Francisco’s Mission District on Sept. 9, 2026. Temperatures reached over 90 degrees in parts of San Francisco on Wednesday. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For the rest of the week, Sarment forecasts temperatures to drop slightly on Thursday and decrease by around 10 degrees on Friday, dipping a couple of degrees each day after. Some spots, like the interior East Bay and the furthest reaches of the North Bay, could still reach into the triple digits on Thursday. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It may be hard to tell, but we already kind of are cooling off,” Sarment said. “It will be in the 90s, and the city may be up to 80. It’s still going to be warm. I don’t want to undersell that, but we’re not expecting it to be as hot as it was yesterday.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sarment said Bay Area residents should also be on the lookout for wildfire starts because of the heat, dryness and potential winds as the weather pattern slowly changes. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The main thing is going to be just preventing sparks,” Sarment said. “Don’t go out and do landscaping.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Forecasters expect the strong high-pressure system from the east that caused this week’s soaring temperatures to stick around through Thursday. But that will change Friday, as a “pulse of energy” from the north will slowly begin to flatten the ridge and help temperatures drop, meteorologists wrote in their daily forecast discussion.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Onshore flow, winds from the Pacific Ocean toward the coast, return Thursday, “which is really going to be the saving grace for the coast,” Sarment said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And then there’s the promise of the marine layer making a return Thursday night. Although Sarment said she’s “cautiously optimistic” that the marine layer will make a full comeback tonight, it’s currently “so far away.” With the current temperatures, it will be difficult to form.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>By the weekend, Sarment expects highs to drop into the mid-70s to mid-80s inland and the upper 60s to upper 70s close to the coast.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>For the rest of the week, Sarment forecasts temperatures to drop slightly on Thursday and decrease by around 10 degrees on Friday, dipping a couple of degrees each day after. Some spots, like the interior East Bay and the furthest reaches of the North Bay, could still reach into the triple digits on Thursday. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>For the rest of the week, Sarment forecasts temperatures to drop slightly on Thursday and decrease by around 10 degrees on Friday, dipping a couple of degrees each day after. Some spots, like the interior East Bay and the furthest reaches of the North Bay, could still reach into the triple digits on Thursday. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It may be hard to tell, but we already kind of are cooling off,” Sarment said. “It will be in the 90s, and the city may be up to 80. It’s still going to be warm. I don’t want to undersell that, but we’re not expecting it to be as hot as it was yesterday.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It may be hard to tell, but we already kind of are cooling off,” Sarment said. “It will be in the 90s, and the city may be up to 80. It’s still going to be warm. I don’t want to undersell that, but we’re not expecting it to be as hot as it was yesterday.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Sarment said Bay Area residents should also be on the lookout for wildfire starts because of the heat, dryness and potential winds as the weather pattern slowly changes. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The main thing is going to be just preventing sparks,” Sarment said. “Don’t go out and do landscaping.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Forecasters expect the strong high-pressure system from the east that caused this week’s soaring temperatures to stick around through Thursday. But that will change Friday, as a “pulse of energy” from the north will slowly begin to flatten the ridge and help temperatures drop, meteorologists wrote in their daily forecast discussion.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Forecasters expect the strong high-pressure system from the east that caused this week’s soaring temperatures to stick around through Thursday. But that will change Friday, as a “pulse of energy” from the north will slowly begin to flatten the ridge and help temperatures drop, meteorologists wrote in their daily forecast discussion.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Onshore flow, winds from the Pacific Ocean toward the coast, return Thursday, “which is really going to be the saving grace for the coast,” Sarment said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And then there’s the promise of the marine layer making a return Thursday night. Although Sarment said she’s “cautiously optimistic” that the marine layer will make a full comeback tonight, it’s currently “so far away.” With the current temperatures, it will be difficult to form.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>And then there’s the promise of the marine layer making a return Thursday night. Although Sarment said she’s “cautiously optimistic” that the marine layer will make a full comeback tonight, it’s currently “so far away.” With the current temperatures, it will be difficult to form.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>By the weekend, Sarment expects highs to drop into the mid-70s to mid-80s inland and the upper 60s to upper 70s close to the coast.\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Record heat scorched the Bay Area this week, but cooler temperatures and the marine layer are on the way.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>This week’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098784/summer-finally-kicks-off-in-san-francisco-with-hot-weather-stretch-across-the-bay-area\">heat wave\u003c/a> caused four Bay Area cities to break daily high records on Wednesday, and forecasters expect at least one more day of above-average heat this week.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>San Rafael reached 104 degrees, downtown Oakland soared to 97 degrees, San Francisco’s airport flew to 94 degrees, and Half Moon Bay peaked at 83 degrees, said Nicole Sarment, a Bay Area National Weather Service meteorologist.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Wednesday’s temperatures were \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098629/3-day-heat-wave-scorches-the-bay-area-this-week\">10 to 20 degrees\u003c/a> above normal for this time of year, though Sarment noted that September is the hottest month for most parts of the region. And according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the country experienced its \u003ca href=\"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608\">hottest\u003c/a> meteorological summer on record, while California set a record for its warmest August average temperature.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-25_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12098993\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-25_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-25_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-25_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People congregate at Crissy Field Beach in San Francisco on Sept. 9, 2026. Temperatures reached over 90 degrees in parts of San Francisco on Wednesday. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1537\" height=\"1025\" data-id=\"12098991\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-8.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12098991\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-8.jpg 1537w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-8-160x107.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1537px) 100vw, 1537px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A customer uses a water-spray fan at Bi-Rite Creamery in San Francisco’s Mission District on Sept. 9, 2026. Temperatures reached over 90 degrees in parts of San Francisco on Wednesday. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" data-id=\"12098992\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-13_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12098992\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-13_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-13_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/09/260909-HeatFile-NG-13_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People lay in the shade at Dolores Park in San Francisco’s Mission District on Sept. 9, 2026. Temperatures reached over 90 degrees in parts of San Francisco on Wednesday. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For the rest of the week, Sarment forecasts temperatures to drop slightly on Thursday and decrease by around 10 degrees on Friday, dipping a couple of degrees each day after. Some spots, like the interior East Bay and the furthest reaches of the North Bay, could still reach into the triple digits on Thursday. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It may be hard to tell, but we already kind of are cooling off,” Sarment said. “It will be in the 90s, and the city may be up to 80. It’s still going to be warm. I don’t want to undersell that, but we’re not expecting it to be as hot as it was yesterday.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sarment said Bay Area residents should also be on the lookout for wildfire starts because of the heat, dryness and potential winds as the weather pattern slowly changes. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The main thing is going to be just preventing sparks,” Sarment said. “Don’t go out and do landscaping.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Forecasters expect the strong high-pressure system from the east that caused this week’s soaring temperatures to stick around through Thursday. But that will change Friday, as a “pulse of energy” from the north will slowly begin to flatten the ridge and help temperatures drop, meteorologists wrote in their daily forecast discussion.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Onshore flow, winds from the Pacific Ocean toward the coast, return Thursday, “which is really going to be the saving grace for the coast,” Sarment said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And then there’s the promise of the marine layer making a return Thursday night. Although Sarment said she’s “cautiously optimistic” that the marine layer will make a full comeback tonight, it’s currently “so far away.” With the current temperatures, it will be difficult to form.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>By the weekend, Sarment expects highs to drop into the mid-70s to mid-80s inland and the upper 60s to upper 70s close to the coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "el-nino-could-bring-a-wet-wild-winter-how-can-you-and-your-home-be-ready",
"title": "El Niño Could Bring a Wet, Wild Winter. How Can You — and Your Home — Be Ready?",
"publishDate": 1788260400,
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"headTitle": "El Niño Could Bring a Wet, Wild Winter. How Can You — and Your Home — Be Ready? | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001688/strong-el-nino-may-bring-record-sea-level-and-coastal-flooding-to-bay-area\">Higher seas\u003c/a>. Back-to-back storms. Mudslides. Flooded homes and highways. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The mere mention of El Niño — and the headlines you’re seeing — can be anxiety-provoking. But how real should your worry be? And what can you do to protect your home, business, or property in advance?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>First, the outlook: Federal forecasters report there’s a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html\">90% chance of a “very strong” El Niño\u003c/a> this fall and winter, and a nearly 70% chance that the strength of El Niño could exceed the strength of any similar event seen since 1950.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Bay Area cities and counties prone to flooding from the sky and the bay, like San Francisco and Marin, are already taking the El Niño threat seriously and preparing for the worst: deluges that could combine with high tides and temporarily elevated sea levels to potentially swamp whole neighborhoods and roadways, including Highway 101.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’ve had situations in the past where we’ve had to evacuate blocks,” said Mary Ellen Carroll, executive director of San Francisco’s Department of Emergency Management. “We’re having much more severe weather situations, and we’re seeing things that we haven’t seen in the past.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12087662\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A puddle left behind by receding king tides reflects homes along Golden Hind Passage in Corte Madera on June 15, 2026. (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Marin County officials are paying close attention to the confluence of El Niño-driven elevated sea levels, seasonal king tides, and the potential for frequent storms that could hammer the region. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We don’t know if it’s going to rain, but we are going to \u003cem>plan \u003c/em>for it to rain a significant amount,” said Steven Torrence, director of emergency management for Marin County. “Water has to go somewhere, and if it can’t go to the bay, we want to be able to push it to locations where it actually will not impact our residents or people’s infrastructure.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Counties and cities are preparing by investing in temporary pumps, cleaning storm drains, working with partner agencies to ensure people aren’t on Bay Area roads during flooding and sending emergency alerts out swiftly when danger arises.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you want to know about significant traffic incidents, upcoming floods or significant storms, we will send out notifications once thresholds are hit,” Torrence said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Here’s what to know about how El Niño could affect your home and your safety this winter — not to panic you, but so you’re prepared for what might happen in a few months.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First off, what is El Niño — and what kind of weather could it bring exactly?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical \u003ca href=\"https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/about/k-12-education/atmosphere/what-are-trade-winds\">trade winds\u003c/a> weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather across California while disrupting the ocean’s nutrient-rich \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html\">upwelling\u003c/a>, heating coastal waters, raising sea levels and stressing marine life.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Exactly what the weather will look like this fall and winter is — quite literally — still up in the air. But similar events in past El Niño years have brought torrential downpours, coastal flooding, mudslides, power outages and giant waves.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The Climate Prediction Center suggests that much of California will experience \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html\">above-normal temperatures this fall \u003cem>and \u003c/em>precipitation\u003c/a> this winter. Earlier in the fall, forecasters expect warm and wet weather in Southern California, the Central Coast, and in the South and East Bays. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068729\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Cars drive on Highway 101 flooded by the “King Tides” on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, near Corte Madera in Marin County, California. (Ethan Swope/AP Photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And come December, there’s potential for above-normal precipitation throughout Northern California. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Rachel Kennedy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office, said the Bay Area sits in this interesting transition zone with “drier conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south.” As a result, the Bay Area could “go either way.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kennedy said, “It is getting more likely that we will see a rainy winter, but we will need to keep an eye on it. Exactly how much it’s going to be above normal, we don’t really know.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“But the fact that the CPC has started indicating leaning above normal for precipitation is a good sign that we are trending towards a wetter winter,” she said\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could where I live be at risk of flooding from El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The effects of El Niño — \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/severe-storms\">severe rainstorms\u003c/a> that flood homes and roadways, strong winds toppling trees, temporarily higher seas and giant waves eroding bluffs — have the potential to directly affect Bay Area homes from Pacifica to San Francisco to San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kennedy said most of the flooding would likely come from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a> that can fuel storms, but also from rising seas, which will be even higher during extra-high \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1955598/king-tides-are-here-why-they-happen-and-what-they-teach-us\">king tides\u003c/a> right around Thanksgiving and Christmas.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you live in an area close to a river or just a more flood-prone area, make sure you are staying up to date on the forecast,” Kennedy said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Carroll said it’s important to take stock of where you live and the flood potential of your home. Are you on a hill? Near a river or the bay? Near a highway that floods? Are there big trees near your home that could fall over in or after a storm? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She suggests looking up flood maps of your home and neighborhood as a starting place to understand your home and family’s flood risk, like this \u003ca href=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/9b14420bdefc427981b1c244f0113328#\">map of San Francisco’s storm and flood hazards\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">All this is making me worried about my home during El Niño. Should I be doing any preparation?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Prevention is the number one thing emergency preparedness experts say homeowners should act on in the months before the rainy season. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This includes everything from clearing out gutters, patching up roofs and trimming trees to ensure low-lying areas, such as creeks or roads, are free of debris — so they don’t get backed up during a storm or high tide.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Make sure those are cleared out, because the moment there’s a tree that’s in the wrong location, water starts flowing everywhere,” Torrence said. “We really wanna make sure that everyone is looking at preventative maintenance as something that they can do today, long before it starts raining\u003cem>.”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12087668\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Plastic sheeting and sandbags are placed outside a home along Golden Hind Passage, as residents prepare for potential king tide flooding, in Corte Madera, on June 15, 2026. (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Torrence said homeowners in areas that can or routinely flood should also invest in sandbags or flood barriers to protect their assets. Your county may be making these tools available: The County of Marin has \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/find-emergency-sandbags\">32 sites\u003c/a> already offering sandbags, and the San Francisco Department of Public Works offers \u003ca href=\"https://sfpublicworks.org/services/sandbags\">10 free sandbags\u003c/a> per household.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Carroll, in \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/severe-storms\">San Francisco\u003c/a>, also said residents should be \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11778663/how-to-prepare-for-potential-pge-power-shutoffs\">ready for power outages \u003c/a>by purchasing backup batteries, flashlights, and nonperishable food. It’s also important to develop a plan — “on a good day,” she stressed — with your family and neighbors in case disaster strikes. As part of this, you should make sure all your important documentation — passports, birth certificates, etc. — is in a safe place, ideally even in a container you can easily grab when evacuating.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Anyone who gets evacuated will tell you they have no idea why they grabbed the things they did,” Carroll said. “I have a list on my refrigerator to remind me of what to take if I had to get out quickly.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>When it comes to your neighborhood, residents should also make sure storm drains are clear of debris to reduce the risk of a water backup that could flood your street. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>San Francisco has an \u003ca href=\"https://adoptadrain.sfwater.org/\">Adopt-A-Drain\u003c/a> program where people can name their drain and are responsible for helping the city clear leaves, trash, and other debris from it. Around KQED’s offices, for example, \u003ca href=\"https://adoptadrain.sfwater.org/#scl\">named drains\u003c/a> include ‘Drain Me Baby One More Time,’ Singin’ in the Drain and ‘No Pain No Drain’.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Since storms can occur during holidays, Torrence said it is important to build relationships with neighbors who can check on your home or alert you if damage occurs. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">I’m a renter. Do I have any responsibility for El Niño preparations — or liability if the worst happens? \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Carroll said yes, renters should follow a similar plan to prepare for the potential consequences of downpours, power outages, flooding, and falling trees (see above). \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But, she said, landlords are usually responsible for the upkeep of their property. And renters should ask questions like: Should we be worried about this area that ponds water? What if the power goes out? Or it flooded last year in my apartment or the basement; has that been mitigated?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Torrence, with the County of Marin, said renters should review their lease agreement to understand their burden here versus their landlord’s, because not all leases are the same. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068651\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People paddle through a street flooded by the “King Tides,” occurring when the sun, moon and Earth align, causing a stronger gravitational pull on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, near Corte Madera in Marin County, California. (Ethan Swope/AP Photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If there are things that are on the property owner, please let them know, things like looking at trees and landscaping,” Torrence said. “We definitely encourage people to have those conversations with property owners \u003cem>early\u003c/em>.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Bringing up issues with landlords before the storm season starts is important, Torrence said, because property owners often travel for the winter or are on holiday during the period with the greatest impacts. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Make sure you bring issues up to your property owners’ attention by saying what’s happened when it’s windy and rainy,” Torrence said. “That way they can advance those mitigation measures.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Torrence also said it’s important to check what is covered in your renters insurance. If you live in a flood-prone area, purchasing a plan could prove beneficial if the worst happens. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Double-check what [your] renters insurance policy is and have a conversation with your property owner to figure out what they cover?” Torrence said. “Because when we have these incidents, that is too late to be looking at your insurance policy.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How could El Niño affect my travel plans this winter?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Two other areas to pay attention to when the skies darken and the sea rises: travel on highways and flights from local airports.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you are traveling either on the road or flying during a storm, the roadways are going to be wet, and you’re likely going to encounter difficulties in visibility, particularly if you experience moderate to heavy rainfall,” Kennedy said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/GettyImages-2252559644-scaled-e1766441297618.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068282\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Heavy rains cause flooding in the streets of San Francisco, California, on Dec. 22, 2025, as a storm system pummels Northern California. (Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She also said to expect flooded roadways at times and gusty winds. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you feel unsafe while driving, make sure to pull off the road, or if you feel safe enough to continue, make sure you are driving slowly and leaving extra time to reach your destination,” Kennedy said. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#driving\">Read our guide to driving during very wet weather.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And if you’re on a flight during a storm, be prepared for travel delays due to turbulence, she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How can I make sure I’m aware of El Niño-related emergencies and extreme weather in my area? \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The first stop experts suggest Bay Area residents should check for information during a flood event or storm is the \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/mtr/\">National Weather Service\u003c/a>. Check out the service’s website to find out where and when the storm will hit your area. Forecasters regularly update the site with warnings and provide a detailed daily \u003ca href=\"https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=mtr&issuedby=MTR&product=AFD\">forecast discussion\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Secondly, Bay Area residents can sign up for emergency alerts from their city or county. Marin County runs a \u003ca href=\"http://emergency.marincounty.gov\">public emergency portal\u003c/a> 24/7, as does \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612609/login\">San Francisco\u003c/a>. Often, city, county, or fire department Facebook or X (formerly Twitter) pages post evacuation orders, flood updates, or virtual town halls. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12017037\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A sign stating “slippery when wet subject to flooding and water surge” at the Embarcadero’s seawall between the bustling city and water in San Francisco, California, on May 1, 2018. (Lauren Hanussak/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Don’t necessarily expect your phone’s maps app to have the latest information during extreme weather. “We encourage people to look at that website, especially during major flooding incidents because oftentimes we have the information before it shows up on Google Maps or Apple Maps,” Torrence said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Marin County residents can also sign up for emergency alerts through \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/sign-alertmarin\">Alert Marin\u003c/a>. The county will send out alerts once two inches of rain fall in an hour or three inches in 24 hours.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where to sign up for Bay Area emergency alerts to be ready for El Niño \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bay Area county alerts\u003c/h3>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>Alameda County: \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612570/notif\">ACAlerts\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Contra Costa County: \u003ca href=\"https://cwsalerts.com/\">Community Warning System\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Marin County: \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/sign-alertmarin\">Alert Marin\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Napa County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.readynapacounty.gov/214/ALERT-Napa-County\">Alert Napa County\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>San Francisco: \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/information--be-know-official-emergency-alerts\">Alert SF\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/readysf\">Ready SF \u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>San Mateo County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.smcgov.org/dem/smc-alert\">SMC Alert\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Santa Clara County: \u003ca href=\"https://oem.santaclaracounty.gov/sign-up-for-alerts\">Alert SCC\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Solano County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.solanocounty.gov/government/office-emergency-services/alert-solano\">Alert Solano\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Sonoma County: \u003ca href=\"https://sonomacounty.gov/administrative-support-and-fiscal-services/emergency-management/resources/soco-alert\">SoCo Alert\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11993195\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A train approaches the San Leandro BART station on March 13, 2024. (Martin do Nascimento/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bay Area transit alerts\u003c/h3>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>Bay Area Highways: \u003ca href=\"https://511.org/realtime/emergencies\">511Alert\u003c/a> (text 511Alert to 888-777)\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.bart.gov/schedules/advisories?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">BART Service Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.caltrain.com/alerts?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Caltrain Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.vta.gov/go/service-alerts?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">VTA Service Alerts / VTAlerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/muni/muni-alerts\">SFMTA/Muni Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.actransit.org/service-alerts\">AC Transit Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus delays, detours, cancellations and service disruptions in the East Bay\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://b\">SamTrans Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus disruptions and service changes in San Mateo County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.goldengate.org/alert_signup/\">Golden Gate Transit/Ferry Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus and ferry cancellations, delays, and service changes affecting Marin, Sonoma and San Francisco\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://sanfranciscobayferry.com/real-time-text-and-email-alerts-now-available-for-san-francisco-bay-ferry-riders/\">San Francisco Bay Ferry Alerts\u003c/a>: Ferry cancellations, delays and service changes\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://sonomamarintrain.org/transitapp\">SMART Alerts\u003c/a>: Train disruptions and service changes in Marin and Sonoma counties\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://countyconnection.com/alerts/\">County Connection Alerts\u003c/a>: Contra Costa bus service\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://trideltatransit.com/e-alerts/\">Tri Delta Transit Alerts\u003c/a>: Eastern Contra Costa County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.westcat.org/textalerts\">WestCAT Alerts\u003c/a>: Western Contra Costa County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.wheelsbus.com/alerts/\">Wheels Alerts\u003c/a>: Tri-Valley/Alameda County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.soltrans.org/alerts\">SolTrans Alerts\u003c/a>: Solano County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://fasttransit.org/\">FAST Alerts\u003c/a>: Fairfield/Suisun Transit\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://vinetransit.com/\">Napa VINE Alerts\u003c/a>: Napa County transit\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001688/strong-el-nino-may-bring-record-sea-level-and-coastal-flooding-to-bay-area\">Higher seas\u003c/a>. Back-to-back storms. Mudslides. Flooded homes and highways. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001688/strong-el-nino-may-bring-record-sea-level-and-coastal-flooding-to-bay-area\">Higher seas\u003c/a>. Back-to-back storms. Mudslides. Flooded homes and highways. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The mere mention of El Niño — and the headlines you’re seeing — can be anxiety-provoking. But how real should your worry be? And what can you do to protect your home, business, or property in advance?\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>The mere mention of El Niño — and the headlines you’re seeing — can be anxiety-provoking. But how real should your worry be? And what can you do to protect your home, business, or property in advance?\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>First, the outlook: Federal forecasters report there’s a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html\">90% chance of a “very strong” El Niño\u003c/a> this fall and winter, and a nearly 70% chance that the strength of El Niño could exceed the strength of any similar event seen since 1950.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>First, the outlook: Federal forecasters report there’s a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html\">90% chance of a “very strong” El Niño\u003c/a> this fall and winter, and a nearly 70% chance that the strength of El Niño could exceed the strength of any similar event seen since 1950.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Bay Area cities and counties prone to flooding from the sky and the bay, like San Francisco and Marin, are already taking the El Niño threat seriously and preparing for the worst: deluges that could combine with high tides and temporarily elevated sea levels to potentially swamp whole neighborhoods and roadways, including Highway 101.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Bay Area cities and counties prone to flooding from the sky and the bay, like San Francisco and Marin, are already taking the El Niño threat seriously and preparing for the worst: deluges that could combine with high tides and temporarily elevated sea levels to potentially swamp whole neighborhoods and roadways, including Highway 101.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’ve had situations in the past where we’ve had to evacuate blocks,” said Mary Ellen Carroll, executive director of San Francisco’s Department of Emergency Management. “We’re having much more severe weather situations, and we’re seeing things that we haven’t seen in the past.”\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“We’ve had situations in the past where we’ve had to evacuate blocks,” said Mary Ellen Carroll, executive director of San Francisco’s Department of Emergency Management. “We’re having much more severe weather situations, and we’re seeing things that we haven’t seen in the past.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12087662\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A puddle left behind by receding king tides reflects homes along Golden Hind Passage in Corte Madera on June 15, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12087662\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A puddle left behind by receding king tides reflects homes along Golden Hind Passage in Corte Madera on June 15, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Marin County officials are paying close attention to the confluence of El Niño-driven elevated sea levels, seasonal king tides, and the potential for frequent storms that could hammer the region. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Marin County officials are paying close attention to the confluence of El Niño-driven elevated sea levels, seasonal king tides, and the potential for frequent storms that could hammer the region. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We don’t know if it’s going to rain, but we are going to \u003cem>plan \u003c/em>for it to rain a significant amount,” said Steven Torrence, director of emergency management for Marin County. “Water has to go somewhere, and if it can’t go to the bay, we want to be able to push it to locations where it actually will not impact our residents or people’s infrastructure.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We don’t know if it’s going to rain, but we are going to \u003cem>plan \u003c/em>for it to rain a significant amount,” said Steven Torrence, director of emergency management for Marin County. “Water has to go somewhere, and if it can’t go to the bay, we want to be able to push it to locations where it actually will not impact our residents or people’s infrastructure.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Counties and cities are preparing by investing in temporary pumps, cleaning storm drains, working with partner agencies to ensure people aren’t on Bay Area roads during flooding and sending emergency alerts out swiftly when danger arises.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Counties and cities are preparing by investing in temporary pumps, cleaning storm drains, working with partner agencies to ensure people aren’t on Bay Area roads during flooding and sending emergency alerts out swiftly when danger arises.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If you want to know about significant traffic incidents, upcoming floods or significant storms, we will send out notifications once thresholds are hit,” Torrence said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If you want to know about significant traffic incidents, upcoming floods or significant storms, we will send out notifications once thresholds are hit,” Torrence said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Here’s what to know about how El Niño could affect your home and your safety this winter — not to panic you, but so you’re prepared for what might happen in a few months.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Here’s what to know about how El Niño could affect your home and your safety this winter — not to panic you, but so you’re prepared for what might happen in a few months.\u003c/p>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
"attrs": {
"text": "First off, what is El Niño — and what kind of weather could it bring exactly?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First off, what is El Niño — and what kind of weather could it bring exactly?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First off, what is El Niño — and what kind of weather could it bring exactly?\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical \u003ca href=\"https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/about/k-12-education/atmosphere/what-are-trade-winds\">trade winds\u003c/a> weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather across California while disrupting the ocean’s nutrient-rich \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html\">upwelling\u003c/a>, heating coastal waters, raising sea levels and stressing marine life.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical \u003ca href=\"https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/about/k-12-education/atmosphere/what-are-trade-winds\">trade winds\u003c/a> weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather across California while disrupting the ocean’s nutrient-rich \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html\">upwelling\u003c/a>, heating coastal waters, raising sea levels and stressing marine life.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Exactly what the weather will look like this fall and winter is — quite literally — still up in the air. But similar events in past El Niño years have brought torrential downpours, coastal flooding, mudslides, power outages and giant waves.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Exactly what the weather will look like this fall and winter is — quite literally — still up in the air. But similar events in past El Niño years have brought torrential downpours, coastal flooding, mudslides, power outages and giant waves.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The Climate Prediction Center suggests that much of California will experience \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html\">above-normal temperatures this fall \u003cem>and \u003c/em>precipitation\u003c/a> this winter. Earlier in the fall, forecasters expect warm and wet weather in Southern California, the Central Coast, and in the South and East Bays. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>The Climate Prediction Center suggests that much of California will experience \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html\">above-normal temperatures this fall \u003cem>and \u003c/em>precipitation\u003c/a> this winter. Earlier in the fall, forecasters expect warm and wet weather in Southern California, the Central Coast, and in the South and East Bays. \u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068729\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Cars drive on Highway 101 flooded by the “King Tides” on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, near Corte Madera in Marin County, California.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Ethan Swope/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068729\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Cars drive on Highway 101 flooded by the “King Tides” on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, near Corte Madera in Marin County, California.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Ethan Swope/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And come December, there’s potential for above-normal precipitation throughout Northern California. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>And come December, there’s potential for above-normal precipitation throughout Northern California. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Rachel Kennedy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office, said the Bay Area sits in this interesting transition zone with “drier conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south.” As a result, the Bay Area could “go either way.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Rachel Kennedy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office, said the Bay Area sits in this interesting transition zone with “drier conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south.” As a result, the Bay Area could “go either way.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kennedy said, “It is getting more likely that we will see a rainy winter, but we will need to keep an eye on it. Exactly how much it’s going to be above normal, we don’t really know.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kennedy said, “It is getting more likely that we will see a rainy winter, but we will need to keep an eye on it. Exactly how much it’s going to be above normal, we don’t really know.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“But the fact that the CPC has started indicating leaning above normal for precipitation is a good sign that we are trending towards a wetter winter,” she said\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“But the fact that the CPC has started indicating leaning above normal for precipitation is a good sign that we are trending towards a wetter winter,” she said\u003c/p>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
"attrs": {
"text": "Could where I live be at risk of flooding from El Niño?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could where I live be at risk of flooding from El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could where I live be at risk of flooding from El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The effects of El Niño — \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/severe-storms\">severe rainstorms\u003c/a> that flood homes and roadways, strong winds toppling trees, temporarily higher seas and giant waves eroding bluffs — have the potential to directly affect Bay Area homes from Pacifica to San Francisco to San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The effects of El Niño — \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/severe-storms\">severe rainstorms\u003c/a> that flood homes and roadways, strong winds toppling trees, temporarily higher seas and giant waves eroding bluffs — have the potential to directly affect Bay Area homes from Pacifica to San Francisco to San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kennedy said most of the flooding would likely come from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a> that can fuel storms, but also from rising seas, which will be even higher during extra-high \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1955598/king-tides-are-here-why-they-happen-and-what-they-teach-us\">king tides\u003c/a> right around Thanksgiving and Christmas.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kennedy said most of the flooding would likely come from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a> that can fuel storms, but also from rising seas, which will be even higher during extra-high \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1955598/king-tides-are-here-why-they-happen-and-what-they-teach-us\">king tides\u003c/a> right around Thanksgiving and Christmas.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If you live in an area close to a river or just a more flood-prone area, make sure you are staying up to date on the forecast,” Kennedy said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If you live in an area close to a river or just a more flood-prone area, make sure you are staying up to date on the forecast,” Kennedy said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Carroll said it’s important to take stock of where you live and the flood potential of your home. Are you on a hill? Near a river or the bay? Near a highway that floods? Are there big trees near your home that could fall over in or after a storm? \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Carroll said it’s important to take stock of where you live and the flood potential of your home. Are you on a hill? Near a river or the bay? Near a highway that floods? Are there big trees near your home that could fall over in or after a storm? \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>She suggests looking up flood maps of your home and neighborhood as a starting place to understand your home and family’s flood risk, like this \u003ca href=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/9b14420bdefc427981b1c244f0113328#\">map of San Francisco’s storm and flood hazards\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>She suggests looking up flood maps of your home and neighborhood as a starting place to understand your home and family’s flood risk, like this \u003ca href=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/9b14420bdefc427981b1c244f0113328#\">map of San Francisco’s storm and flood hazards\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "All this is making me worried about my home during El Niño. Should I be doing any preparation?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">All this is making me worried about my home during El Niño. Should I be doing any preparation?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">All this is making me worried about my home during El Niño. Should I be doing any preparation?\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Prevention is the number one thing emergency preparedness experts say homeowners should act on in the months before the rainy season. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Prevention is the number one thing emergency preparedness experts say homeowners should act on in the months before the rainy season. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>This includes everything from clearing out gutters, patching up roofs and trimming trees to ensure low-lying areas, such as creeks or roads, are free of debris — so they don’t get backed up during a storm or high tide.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>This includes everything from clearing out gutters, patching up roofs and trimming trees to ensure low-lying areas, such as creeks or roads, are free of debris — so they don’t get backed up during a storm or high tide.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Make sure those are cleared out, because the moment there’s a tree that’s in the wrong location, water starts flowing everywhere,” Torrence said. “We really wanna make sure that everyone is looking at preventative maintenance as something that they can do today, long before it starts raining\u003cem>.”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Make sure those are cleared out, because the moment there’s a tree that’s in the wrong location, water starts flowing everywhere,” Torrence said. “We really wanna make sure that everyone is looking at preventative maintenance as something that they can do today, long before it starts raining\u003cem>.”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12087668\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Plastic sheeting and sandbags are placed outside a home along Golden Hind Passage, as residents prepare for potential king tide flooding, in Corte Madera, on June 15, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12087668\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Plastic sheeting and sandbags are placed outside a home along Golden Hind Passage, as residents prepare for potential king tide flooding, in Corte Madera, on June 15, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Torrence said homeowners in areas that can or routinely flood should also invest in sandbags or flood barriers to protect their assets. Your county may be making these tools available: The County of Marin has \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/find-emergency-sandbags\">32 sites\u003c/a> already offering sandbags, and the San Francisco Department of Public Works offers \u003ca href=\"https://sfpublicworks.org/services/sandbags\">10 free sandbags\u003c/a> per household.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Torrence said homeowners in areas that can or routinely flood should also invest in sandbags or flood barriers to protect their assets. Your county may be making these tools available: The County of Marin has \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/find-emergency-sandbags\">32 sites\u003c/a> already offering sandbags, and the San Francisco Department of Public Works offers \u003ca href=\"https://sfpublicworks.org/services/sandbags\">10 free sandbags\u003c/a> per household.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Carroll, in \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/severe-storms\">San Francisco\u003c/a>, also said residents should be \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11778663/how-to-prepare-for-potential-pge-power-shutoffs\">ready for power outages \u003c/a>by purchasing backup batteries, flashlights, and nonperishable food. It’s also important to develop a plan — “on a good day,” she stressed — with your family and neighbors in case disaster strikes. As part of this, you should make sure all your important documentation — passports, birth certificates, etc. — is in a safe place, ideally even in a container you can easily grab when evacuating.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Carroll, in \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/severe-storms\">San Francisco\u003c/a>, also said residents should be \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11778663/how-to-prepare-for-potential-pge-power-shutoffs\">ready for power outages \u003c/a>by purchasing backup batteries, flashlights, and nonperishable food. It’s also important to develop a plan — “on a good day,” she stressed — with your family and neighbors in case disaster strikes. As part of this, you should make sure all your important documentation — passports, birth certificates, etc. — is in a safe place, ideally even in a container you can easily grab when evacuating.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Anyone who gets evacuated will tell you they have no idea why they grabbed the things they did,” Carroll said. “I have a list on my refrigerator to remind me of what to take if I had to get out quickly.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Anyone who gets evacuated will tell you they have no idea why they grabbed the things they did,” Carroll said. “I have a list on my refrigerator to remind me of what to take if I had to get out quickly.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>When it comes to your neighborhood, residents should also make sure storm drains are clear of debris to reduce the risk of a water backup that could flood your street. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>When it comes to your neighborhood, residents should also make sure storm drains are clear of debris to reduce the risk of a water backup that could flood your street. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>San Francisco has an \u003ca href=\"https://adoptadrain.sfwater.org/\">Adopt-A-Drain\u003c/a> program where people can name their drain and are responsible for helping the city clear leaves, trash, and other debris from it. Around KQED’s offices, for example, \u003ca href=\"https://adoptadrain.sfwater.org/#scl\">named drains\u003c/a> include ‘Drain Me Baby One More Time,’ Singin’ in the Drain and ‘No Pain No Drain’.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>San Francisco has an \u003ca href=\"https://adoptadrain.sfwater.org/\">Adopt-A-Drain\u003c/a> program where people can name their drain and are responsible for helping the city clear leaves, trash, and other debris from it. Around KQED’s offices, for example, \u003ca href=\"https://adoptadrain.sfwater.org/#scl\">named drains\u003c/a> include ‘Drain Me Baby One More Time,’ Singin’ in the Drain and ‘No Pain No Drain’.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Since storms can occur during holidays, Torrence said it is important to build relationships with neighbors who can check on your home or alert you if damage occurs. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Since storms can occur during holidays, Torrence said it is important to build relationships with neighbors who can check on your home or alert you if damage occurs. \u003c/p>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
"attrs": {
"text": "I’m a renter. Do I have any responsibility for El Niño preparations — or liability if the worst happens? ",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">I’m a renter. Do I have any responsibility for El Niño preparations — or liability if the worst happens? \u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">I’m a renter. Do I have any responsibility for El Niño preparations — or liability if the worst happens? \u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Carroll said yes, renters should follow a similar plan to prepare for the potential consequences of downpours, power outages, flooding, and falling trees (see above). \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Carroll said yes, renters should follow a similar plan to prepare for the potential consequences of downpours, power outages, flooding, and falling trees (see above). \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But, she said, landlords are usually responsible for the upkeep of their property. And renters should ask questions like: Should we be worried about this area that ponds water? What if the power goes out? Or it flooded last year in my apartment or the basement; has that been mitigated?\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But, she said, landlords are usually responsible for the upkeep of their property. And renters should ask questions like: Should we be worried about this area that ponds water? What if the power goes out? Or it flooded last year in my apartment or the basement; has that been mitigated?\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Torrence, with the County of Marin, said renters should review their lease agreement to understand their burden here versus their landlord’s, because not all leases are the same. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Torrence, with the County of Marin, said renters should review their lease agreement to understand their burden here versus their landlord’s, because not all leases are the same. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068651\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People paddle through a street flooded by the “King Tides,” occurring when the sun, moon and Earth align, causing a stronger gravitational pull on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, near Corte Madera in Marin County, California.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Ethan Swope/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068651\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People paddle through a street flooded by the “King Tides,” occurring when the sun, moon and Earth align, causing a stronger gravitational pull on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, near Corte Madera in Marin County, California.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Ethan Swope/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If there are things that are on the property owner, please let them know, things like looking at trees and landscaping,” Torrence said. “We definitely encourage people to have those conversations with property owners \u003cem>early\u003c/em>.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If there are things that are on the property owner, please let them know, things like looking at trees and landscaping,” Torrence said. “We definitely encourage people to have those conversations with property owners \u003cem>early\u003c/em>.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Bringing up issues with landlords before the storm season starts is important, Torrence said, because property owners often travel for the winter or are on holiday during the period with the greatest impacts. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Bringing up issues with landlords before the storm season starts is important, Torrence said, because property owners often travel for the winter or are on holiday during the period with the greatest impacts. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Make sure you bring issues up to your property owners’ attention by saying what’s happened when it’s windy and rainy,” Torrence said. “That way they can advance those mitigation measures.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Make sure you bring issues up to your property owners’ attention by saying what’s happened when it’s windy and rainy,” Torrence said. “That way they can advance those mitigation measures.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Torrence also said it’s important to check what is covered in your renters insurance. If you live in a flood-prone area, purchasing a plan could prove beneficial if the worst happens. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Torrence also said it’s important to check what is covered in your renters insurance. If you live in a flood-prone area, purchasing a plan could prove beneficial if the worst happens. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Double-check what [your] renters insurance policy is and have a conversation with your property owner to figure out what they cover?” Torrence said. “Because when we have these incidents, that is too late to be looking at your insurance policy.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Double-check what [your] renters insurance policy is and have a conversation with your property owner to figure out what they cover?” Torrence said. “Because when we have these incidents, that is too late to be looking at your insurance policy.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"attrs": {
"text": "How could El Niño affect my travel plans this winter?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How could El Niño affect my travel plans this winter?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Two other areas to pay attention to when the skies darken and the sea rises: travel on highways and flights from local airports.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Two other areas to pay attention to when the skies darken and the sea rises: travel on highways and flights from local airports.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If you are traveling either on the road or flying during a storm, the roadways are going to be wet, and you’re likely going to encounter difficulties in visibility, particularly if you experience moderate to heavy rainfall,” Kennedy said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If you are traveling either on the road or flying during a storm, the roadways are going to be wet, and you’re likely going to encounter difficulties in visibility, particularly if you experience moderate to heavy rainfall,” Kennedy said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/GettyImages-2252559644-scaled-e1766441297618.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068282\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Heavy rains cause flooding in the streets of San Francisco, California, on Dec. 22, 2025, as a storm system pummels Northern California. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/GettyImages-2252559644-scaled-e1766441297618.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068282\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Heavy rains cause flooding in the streets of San Francisco, California, on Dec. 22, 2025, as a storm system pummels Northern California. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>She also said to expect flooded roadways at times and gusty winds. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>She also said to expect flooded roadways at times and gusty winds. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If you feel unsafe while driving, make sure to pull off the road, or if you feel safe enough to continue, make sure you are driving slowly and leaving extra time to reach your destination,” Kennedy said. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#driving\">Read our guide to driving during very wet weather.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If you feel unsafe while driving, make sure to pull off the road, or if you feel safe enough to continue, make sure you are driving slowly and leaving extra time to reach your destination,” Kennedy said. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#driving\">Read our guide to driving during very wet weather.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And if you’re on a flight during a storm, be prepared for travel delays due to turbulence, she said.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>And if you’re on a flight during a storm, be prepared for travel delays due to turbulence, she said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"attrs": {
"text": "How can I make sure I’m aware of El Niño-related emergencies and extreme weather in my area? ",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How can I make sure I’m aware of El Niño-related emergencies and extreme weather in my area? \u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The first stop experts suggest Bay Area residents should check for information during a flood event or storm is the \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/mtr/\">National Weather Service\u003c/a>. Check out the service’s website to find out where and when the storm will hit your area. Forecasters regularly update the site with warnings and provide a detailed daily \u003ca href=\"https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=mtr&issuedby=MTR&product=AFD\">forecast discussion\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The first stop experts suggest Bay Area residents should check for information during a flood event or storm is the \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/mtr/\">National Weather Service\u003c/a>. Check out the service’s website to find out where and when the storm will hit your area. Forecasters regularly update the site with warnings and provide a detailed daily \u003ca href=\"https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=mtr&issuedby=MTR&product=AFD\">forecast discussion\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Secondly, Bay Area residents can sign up for emergency alerts from their city or county. Marin County runs a \u003ca href=\"http://emergency.marincounty.gov\">public emergency portal\u003c/a> 24/7, as does \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612609/login\">San Francisco\u003c/a>. Often, city, county, or fire department Facebook or X (formerly Twitter) pages post evacuation orders, flood updates, or virtual town halls. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Secondly, Bay Area residents can sign up for emergency alerts from their city or county. Marin County runs a \u003ca href=\"http://emergency.marincounty.gov\">public emergency portal\u003c/a> 24/7, as does \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612609/login\">San Francisco\u003c/a>. Often, city, county, or fire department Facebook or X (formerly Twitter) pages post evacuation orders, flood updates, or virtual town halls. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12017037\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A sign stating “slippery when wet subject to flooding and water surge” at the Embarcadero’s seawall between the bustling city and water in San Francisco, California, on May 1, 2018.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Lauren Hanussak/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12017037\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A sign stating “slippery when wet subject to flooding and water surge” at the Embarcadero’s seawall between the bustling city and water in San Francisco, California, on May 1, 2018.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Lauren Hanussak/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Don’t necessarily expect your phone’s maps app to have the latest information during extreme weather. “We encourage people to look at that website, especially during major flooding incidents because oftentimes we have the information before it shows up on Google Maps or Apple Maps,” Torrence said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Don’t necessarily expect your phone’s maps app to have the latest information during extreme weather. “We encourage people to look at that website, especially during major flooding incidents because oftentimes we have the information before it shows up on Google Maps or Apple Maps,” Torrence said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Marin County residents can also sign up for emergency alerts through \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/sign-alertmarin\">Alert Marin\u003c/a>. The county will send out alerts once two inches of rain fall in an hour or three inches in 24 hours.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Marin County residents can also sign up for emergency alerts through \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/sign-alertmarin\">Alert Marin\u003c/a>. The county will send out alerts once two inches of rain fall in an hour or three inches in 24 hours.\u003c/p>\n"
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"attrs": {
"text": "Where to sign up for Bay Area emergency alerts to be ready for El Niño ",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where to sign up for Bay Area emergency alerts to be ready for El Niño \u003c/h2>\n",
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"text": "Bay Area county alerts"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bay Area county alerts\u003c/h3>\n",
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"Alameda County: ACAlerts",
"Contra Costa County: Community Warning System",
"Marin County: Alert Marin",
"Napa County: Alert Napa County ",
"San Francisco: Alert SF, Ready SF ",
"San Mateo County: SMC Alert",
"Santa Clara County: Alert SCC",
"Solano County: Alert Solano",
"Sonoma County: SoCo Alert"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Alameda County: \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612570/notif\">ACAlerts\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>Alameda County: \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612570/notif\">ACAlerts\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Contra Costa County: \u003ca href=\"https://cwsalerts.com/\">Community Warning System\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>Contra Costa County: \u003ca href=\"https://cwsalerts.com/\">Community Warning System\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Marin County: \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/sign-alertmarin\">Alert Marin\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>Marin County: \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/sign-alertmarin\">Alert Marin\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Napa County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.readynapacounty.gov/214/ALERT-Napa-County\">Alert Napa County\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cli>Napa County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.readynapacounty.gov/214/ALERT-Napa-County\">Alert Napa County\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>San Francisco: \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/information--be-know-official-emergency-alerts\">Alert SF\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/readysf\">Ready SF \u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>San Francisco: \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/information--be-know-official-emergency-alerts\">Alert SF\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/readysf\">Ready SF \u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>San Mateo County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.smcgov.org/dem/smc-alert\">SMC Alert\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>San Mateo County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.smcgov.org/dem/smc-alert\">SMC Alert\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Santa Clara County: \u003ca href=\"https://oem.santaclaracounty.gov/sign-up-for-alerts\">Alert SCC\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cli>Santa Clara County: \u003ca href=\"https://oem.santaclaracounty.gov/sign-up-for-alerts\">Alert SCC\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Solano County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.solanocounty.gov/government/office-emergency-services/alert-solano\">Alert Solano\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cli>Solano County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.solanocounty.gov/government/office-emergency-services/alert-solano\">Alert Solano\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Sonoma County: \u003ca href=\"https://sonomacounty.gov/administrative-support-and-fiscal-services/emergency-management/resources/soco-alert\">SoCo Alert\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>Sonoma County: \u003ca href=\"https://sonomacounty.gov/administrative-support-and-fiscal-services/emergency-management/resources/soco-alert\">SoCo Alert\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11993195\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A train approaches the San Leandro BART station on March 13, 2024.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Martin do Nascimento/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11993195\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A train approaches the San Leandro BART station on March 13, 2024.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Martin do Nascimento/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"Bay Area Highways: 511Alert (text 511Alert to 888-777)",
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"Caltrain Alerts ",
"VTA Service Alerts / VTAlerts ",
"SFMTA/Muni Alerts ",
"AC Transit Alerts: Bus delays, detours, cancellations and service disruptions in the East Bay",
"SamTrans Alerts: Bus disruptions and service changes in San Mateo County",
"Golden Gate Transit/Ferry Alerts: Bus and ferry cancellations, delays, and service changes affecting Marin, Sonoma and San Francisco",
"San Francisco Bay Ferry Alerts: Ferry cancellations, delays and service changes",
"SMART Alerts: Train disruptions and service changes in Marin and Sonoma counties",
"County Connection Alerts: Contra Costa bus service",
"Tri Delta Transit Alerts: Eastern Contra Costa County",
"WestCAT Alerts: Western Contra Costa County",
"Wheels Alerts: Tri-Valley/Alameda County",
"SolTrans Alerts: Solano County",
"FAST Alerts: Fairfield/Suisun Transit",
"Napa VINE Alerts: Napa County transit"
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null,
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null,
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null,
"\n\n",
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"\n\n",
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"\n\n",
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null,
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Bay Area Highways: \u003ca href=\"https://511.org/realtime/emergencies\">511Alert\u003c/a> (text 511Alert to 888-777)\u003c/li>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.bart.gov/schedules/advisories?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">BART Service Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.bart.gov/schedules/advisories?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">BART Service Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.caltrain.com/alerts?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Caltrain Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.caltrain.com/alerts?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Caltrain Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.vta.gov/go/service-alerts?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">VTA Service Alerts / VTAlerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.vta.gov/go/service-alerts?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">VTA Service Alerts / VTAlerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/muni/muni-alerts\">SFMTA/Muni Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/muni/muni-alerts\">SFMTA/Muni Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.actransit.org/service-alerts\">AC Transit Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus delays, detours, cancellations and service disruptions in the East Bay\u003c/li>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.actransit.org/service-alerts\">AC Transit Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus delays, detours, cancellations and service disruptions in the East Bay\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://b\">SamTrans Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus disruptions and service changes in San Mateo County\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://b\">SamTrans Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus disruptions and service changes in San Mateo County\u003c/li>\n"
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"excerpt": "A powerful El Niño could bring flooding, high tides, and fierce storms. Here’s how Bay Area residents can prepare.",
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"title": "El Niño Could Bring a Wet, Wild Winter. How Can You — and Your Home — Be Ready? | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001688/strong-el-nino-may-bring-record-sea-level-and-coastal-flooding-to-bay-area\">Higher seas\u003c/a>. Back-to-back storms. Mudslides. Flooded homes and highways. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The mere mention of El Niño — and the headlines you’re seeing — can be anxiety-provoking. But how real should your worry be? And what can you do to protect your home, business, or property in advance?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>First, the outlook: Federal forecasters report there’s a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html\">90% chance of a “very strong” El Niño\u003c/a> this fall and winter, and a nearly 70% chance that the strength of El Niño could exceed the strength of any similar event seen since 1950.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Bay Area cities and counties prone to flooding from the sky and the bay, like San Francisco and Marin, are already taking the El Niño threat seriously and preparing for the worst: deluges that could combine with high tides and temporarily elevated sea levels to potentially swamp whole neighborhoods and roadways, including Highway 101.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’ve had situations in the past where we’ve had to evacuate blocks,” said Mary Ellen Carroll, executive director of San Francisco’s Department of Emergency Management. “We’re having much more severe weather situations, and we’re seeing things that we haven’t seen in the past.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12087662\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_001-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A puddle left behind by receding king tides reflects homes along Golden Hind Passage in Corte Madera on June 15, 2026. (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Marin County officials are paying close attention to the confluence of El Niño-driven elevated sea levels, seasonal king tides, and the potential for frequent storms that could hammer the region. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We don’t know if it’s going to rain, but we are going to \u003cem>plan \u003c/em>for it to rain a significant amount,” said Steven Torrence, director of emergency management for Marin County. “Water has to go somewhere, and if it can’t go to the bay, we want to be able to push it to locations where it actually will not impact our residents or people’s infrastructure.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Counties and cities are preparing by investing in temporary pumps, cleaning storm drains, working with partner agencies to ensure people aren’t on Bay Area roads during flooding and sending emergency alerts out swiftly when danger arises.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you want to know about significant traffic incidents, upcoming floods or significant storms, we will send out notifications once thresholds are hit,” Torrence said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Here’s what to know about how El Niño could affect your home and your safety this winter — not to panic you, but so you’re prepared for what might happen in a few months.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First off, what is El Niño — and what kind of weather could it bring exactly?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical \u003ca href=\"https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/about/k-12-education/atmosphere/what-are-trade-winds\">trade winds\u003c/a> weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather across California while disrupting the ocean’s nutrient-rich \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html\">upwelling\u003c/a>, heating coastal waters, raising sea levels and stressing marine life.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Exactly what the weather will look like this fall and winter is — quite literally — still up in the air. But similar events in past El Niño years have brought torrential downpours, coastal flooding, mudslides, power outages and giant waves.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The Climate Prediction Center suggests that much of California will experience \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html\">above-normal temperatures this fall \u003cem>and \u003c/em>precipitation\u003c/a> this winter. Earlier in the fall, forecasters expect warm and wet weather in Southern California, the Central Coast, and in the South and East Bays. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068729\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/FloodingMarinCountyAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Cars drive on Highway 101 flooded by the “King Tides” on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, near Corte Madera in Marin County, California. (Ethan Swope/AP Photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And come December, there’s potential for above-normal precipitation throughout Northern California. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Rachel Kennedy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office, said the Bay Area sits in this interesting transition zone with “drier conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south.” As a result, the Bay Area could “go either way.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kennedy said, “It is getting more likely that we will see a rainy winter, but we will need to keep an eye on it. Exactly how much it’s going to be above normal, we don’t really know.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“But the fact that the CPC has started indicating leaning above normal for precipitation is a good sign that we are trending towards a wetter winter,” she said\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could where I live be at risk of flooding from El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The effects of El Niño — \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/severe-storms\">severe rainstorms\u003c/a> that flood homes and roadways, strong winds toppling trees, temporarily higher seas and giant waves eroding bluffs — have the potential to directly affect Bay Area homes from Pacifica to San Francisco to San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kennedy said most of the flooding would likely come from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a> that can fuel storms, but also from rising seas, which will be even higher during extra-high \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1955598/king-tides-are-here-why-they-happen-and-what-they-teach-us\">king tides\u003c/a> right around Thanksgiving and Christmas.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you live in an area close to a river or just a more flood-prone area, make sure you are staying up to date on the forecast,” Kennedy said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Carroll said it’s important to take stock of where you live and the flood potential of your home. Are you on a hill? Near a river or the bay? Near a highway that floods? Are there big trees near your home that could fall over in or after a storm? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She suggests looking up flood maps of your home and neighborhood as a starting place to understand your home and family’s flood risk, like this \u003ca href=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/9b14420bdefc427981b1c244f0113328#\">map of San Francisco’s storm and flood hazards\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">All this is making me worried about my home during El Niño. Should I be doing any preparation?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Prevention is the number one thing emergency preparedness experts say homeowners should act on in the months before the rainy season. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This includes everything from clearing out gutters, patching up roofs and trimming trees to ensure low-lying areas, such as creeks or roads, are free of debris — so they don’t get backed up during a storm or high tide.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Make sure those are cleared out, because the moment there’s a tree that’s in the wrong location, water starts flowing everywhere,” Torrence said. “We really wanna make sure that everyone is looking at preventative maintenance as something that they can do today, long before it starts raining\u003cem>.”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12087668\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_011-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Plastic sheeting and sandbags are placed outside a home along Golden Hind Passage, as residents prepare for potential king tide flooding, in Corte Madera, on June 15, 2026. (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Torrence said homeowners in areas that can or routinely flood should also invest in sandbags or flood barriers to protect their assets. Your county may be making these tools available: The County of Marin has \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/find-emergency-sandbags\">32 sites\u003c/a> already offering sandbags, and the San Francisco Department of Public Works offers \u003ca href=\"https://sfpublicworks.org/services/sandbags\">10 free sandbags\u003c/a> per household.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Carroll, in \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/severe-storms\">San Francisco\u003c/a>, also said residents should be \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11778663/how-to-prepare-for-potential-pge-power-shutoffs\">ready for power outages \u003c/a>by purchasing backup batteries, flashlights, and nonperishable food. It’s also important to develop a plan — “on a good day,” she stressed — with your family and neighbors in case disaster strikes. As part of this, you should make sure all your important documentation — passports, birth certificates, etc. — is in a safe place, ideally even in a container you can easily grab when evacuating.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Anyone who gets evacuated will tell you they have no idea why they grabbed the things they did,” Carroll said. “I have a list on my refrigerator to remind me of what to take if I had to get out quickly.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>When it comes to your neighborhood, residents should also make sure storm drains are clear of debris to reduce the risk of a water backup that could flood your street. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>San Francisco has an \u003ca href=\"https://adoptadrain.sfwater.org/\">Adopt-A-Drain\u003c/a> program where people can name their drain and are responsible for helping the city clear leaves, trash, and other debris from it. Around KQED’s offices, for example, \u003ca href=\"https://adoptadrain.sfwater.org/#scl\">named drains\u003c/a> include ‘Drain Me Baby One More Time,’ Singin’ in the Drain and ‘No Pain No Drain’.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Since storms can occur during holidays, Torrence said it is important to build relationships with neighbors who can check on your home or alert you if damage occurs. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">I’m a renter. Do I have any responsibility for El Niño preparations — or liability if the worst happens? \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Carroll said yes, renters should follow a similar plan to prepare for the potential consequences of downpours, power outages, flooding, and falling trees (see above). \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But, she said, landlords are usually responsible for the upkeep of their property. And renters should ask questions like: Should we be worried about this area that ponds water? What if the power goes out? Or it flooded last year in my apartment or the basement; has that been mitigated?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Torrence, with the County of Marin, said renters should review their lease agreement to understand their burden here versus their landlord’s, because not all leases are the same. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068651\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People paddle through a street flooded by the “King Tides,” occurring when the sun, moon and Earth align, causing a stronger gravitational pull on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, near Corte Madera in Marin County, California. (Ethan Swope/AP Photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If there are things that are on the property owner, please let them know, things like looking at trees and landscaping,” Torrence said. “We definitely encourage people to have those conversations with property owners \u003cem>early\u003c/em>.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Bringing up issues with landlords before the storm season starts is important, Torrence said, because property owners often travel for the winter or are on holiday during the period with the greatest impacts. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Make sure you bring issues up to your property owners’ attention by saying what’s happened when it’s windy and rainy,” Torrence said. “That way they can advance those mitigation measures.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Torrence also said it’s important to check what is covered in your renters insurance. If you live in a flood-prone area, purchasing a plan could prove beneficial if the worst happens. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Double-check what [your] renters insurance policy is and have a conversation with your property owner to figure out what they cover?” Torrence said. “Because when we have these incidents, that is too late to be looking at your insurance policy.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How could El Niño affect my travel plans this winter?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Two other areas to pay attention to when the skies darken and the sea rises: travel on highways and flights from local airports.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you are traveling either on the road or flying during a storm, the roadways are going to be wet, and you’re likely going to encounter difficulties in visibility, particularly if you experience moderate to heavy rainfall,” Kennedy said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/12/GettyImages-2252559644-scaled-e1766441297618.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12068282\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Heavy rains cause flooding in the streets of San Francisco, California, on Dec. 22, 2025, as a storm system pummels Northern California. (Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She also said to expect flooded roadways at times and gusty winds. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you feel unsafe while driving, make sure to pull off the road, or if you feel safe enough to continue, make sure you are driving slowly and leaving extra time to reach your destination,” Kennedy said. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#driving\">Read our guide to driving during very wet weather.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And if you’re on a flight during a storm, be prepared for travel delays due to turbulence, she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How can I make sure I’m aware of El Niño-related emergencies and extreme weather in my area? \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The first stop experts suggest Bay Area residents should check for information during a flood event or storm is the \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/mtr/\">National Weather Service\u003c/a>. Check out the service’s website to find out where and when the storm will hit your area. Forecasters regularly update the site with warnings and provide a detailed daily \u003ca href=\"https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=mtr&issuedby=MTR&product=AFD\">forecast discussion\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Secondly, Bay Area residents can sign up for emergency alerts from their city or county. Marin County runs a \u003ca href=\"http://emergency.marincounty.gov\">public emergency portal\u003c/a> 24/7, as does \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612609/login\">San Francisco\u003c/a>. Often, city, county, or fire department Facebook or X (formerly Twitter) pages post evacuation orders, flood updates, or virtual town halls. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12017037\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/SeaLevel_005_qed-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A sign stating “slippery when wet subject to flooding and water surge” at the Embarcadero’s seawall between the bustling city and water in San Francisco, California, on May 1, 2018. (Lauren Hanussak/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Don’t necessarily expect your phone’s maps app to have the latest information during extreme weather. “We encourage people to look at that website, especially during major flooding incidents because oftentimes we have the information before it shows up on Google Maps or Apple Maps,” Torrence said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Marin County residents can also sign up for emergency alerts through \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/sign-alertmarin\">Alert Marin\u003c/a>. The county will send out alerts once two inches of rain fall in an hour or three inches in 24 hours.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where to sign up for Bay Area emergency alerts to be ready for El Niño \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bay Area county alerts\u003c/h3>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>Alameda County: \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612570/notif\">ACAlerts\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Contra Costa County: \u003ca href=\"https://cwsalerts.com/\">Community Warning System\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Marin County: \u003ca href=\"https://emergency.marincounty.gov/sign-alertmarin\">Alert Marin\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Napa County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.readynapacounty.gov/214/ALERT-Napa-County\">Alert Napa County\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>San Francisco: \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/information--be-know-official-emergency-alerts\">Alert SF\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sf.gov/readysf\">Ready SF \u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>San Mateo County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.smcgov.org/dem/smc-alert\">SMC Alert\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Santa Clara County: \u003ca href=\"https://oem.santaclaracounty.gov/sign-up-for-alerts\">Alert SCC\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Solano County: \u003ca href=\"https://www.solanocounty.gov/government/office-emergency-services/alert-solano\">Alert Solano\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Sonoma County: \u003ca href=\"https://sonomacounty.gov/administrative-support-and-fiscal-services/emergency-management/resources/soco-alert\">SoCo Alert\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11993195\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/240313-BART-CRISIS-INTERVENTION-UNIT-MD-16_qed-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A train approaches the San Leandro BART station on March 13, 2024. (Martin do Nascimento/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bay Area transit alerts\u003c/h3>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>Bay Area Highways: \u003ca href=\"https://511.org/realtime/emergencies\">511Alert\u003c/a> (text 511Alert to 888-777)\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.bart.gov/schedules/advisories?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">BART Service Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.caltrain.com/alerts?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Caltrain Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.vta.gov/go/service-alerts?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">VTA Service Alerts / VTAlerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/muni/muni-alerts\">SFMTA/Muni Alerts\u003c/a> \u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.actransit.org/service-alerts\">AC Transit Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus delays, detours, cancellations and service disruptions in the East Bay\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://b\">SamTrans Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus disruptions and service changes in San Mateo County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.goldengate.org/alert_signup/\">Golden Gate Transit/Ferry Alerts\u003c/a>: Bus and ferry cancellations, delays, and service changes affecting Marin, Sonoma and San Francisco\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://sanfranciscobayferry.com/real-time-text-and-email-alerts-now-available-for-san-francisco-bay-ferry-riders/\">San Francisco Bay Ferry Alerts\u003c/a>: Ferry cancellations, delays and service changes\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://sonomamarintrain.org/transitapp\">SMART Alerts\u003c/a>: Train disruptions and service changes in Marin and Sonoma counties\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://countyconnection.com/alerts/\">County Connection Alerts\u003c/a>: Contra Costa bus service\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://trideltatransit.com/e-alerts/\">Tri Delta Transit Alerts\u003c/a>: Eastern Contra Costa County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.westcat.org/textalerts\">WestCAT Alerts\u003c/a>: Western Contra Costa County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.wheelsbus.com/alerts/\">Wheels Alerts\u003c/a>: Tri-Valley/Alameda County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.soltrans.org/alerts\">SolTrans Alerts\u003c/a>: Solano County\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://fasttransit.org/\">FAST Alerts\u003c/a>: Fairfield/Suisun Transit\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://vinetransit.com/\">Napa VINE Alerts\u003c/a>: Napa County transit\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "california-hurricane-not-likely-but-rain-could-be-on-the-way",
"title": "California Hurricane? Not Likely, but Rain Could Be on the Way",
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"headTitle": "California Hurricane? Not Likely, but Rain Could Be on the Way | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>A tropical storm is forming off the coast of Baja \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/california\">California,\u003c/a> a system that national forecasters say has a virtually nonexistent chance of intensifying into a hurricane.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The National Hurricane Center is predicting a \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=7\">90% chance\u003c/a> of a tropical storm forming in the Baja California area within the next 48 hours and within the next seven days. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The storm brewing off the Baja coast is fueled in part by the very strong El Niño, a natural climate pattern that is gaining momentum and warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Temperatures off the coast of San Diego are about \u003ca href=\"https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Scripps-Pier/seatemp\">8 degrees above the average\u003c/a> for this time of year, according to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is one consequence of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1325\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12037679\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-800x530.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1020x676.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1536x1018.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1920x1272.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An automated National Weather Service weather station collects data on a bluff overlooking the Pacific Ocean in Montara, California, on April 5, 2016. (Paul Chinn/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During his YouTube \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDPdXP-EnQQ\">office hours\u003c/a> on Monday, Swain said that the ocean off the coast of Southern California and off the west coast of Mexico “is the warmest it has ever been in recorded history.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There is a record-breaking amount of potential energy stored in that surface ocean,” Swain said. “There is a lot of extra moisture in the overlying atmosphere because, of course, warm water means more evaporation.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But meteorologists are making it clear that California’s coast has a small chance of a tropical storm making landfall, and an even smaller chance of a hurricane, over the next week. NWS forecasters reported that it’s the “least likely outcome at this point.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Everything in between is also on the table,” Los Angeles-based weather service meteorologists wrote in their daily \u003ca href=\"https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lox&issuedby=LOX&product=AFD\">forecast discussion\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If the storm forms and veers west, California will likely get very little rain or wind, forecasters said. But if it moves northeast, remnants of the tropical storm increase the chances of rain in Southern California and eventually the Bay Area.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“To be clear, there is virtually no chance that a hurricane will make landfall in California,” Bay Area weather forecasters wrote in their daily forecast discussion. “The actual water temperature is still far too cold to support a tropical cyclone.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Lauren Villafane, a meteorologist with the NWS San Diego office, said cooler water off the California coast usually protects the state from the effects of intense tropical storms or hurricanes. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Until it actually develops into something and we get more confidence in its track, I can’t put out anything with any real confidence,” Villafane said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Even with our above-average temperatures that we have going on currently, it’s still not those ideal temperatures for tropical cyclone formation,” Villafane said. “Our cold water actually has the tendency to kill things off. So, which is why we usually end up with tropical remnants over the area if we get anything at all.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1708\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"A man walks next to a large highway that has been completely blockaded by debris.\" class=\"wp-image-11958712\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-2048x1366.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1920x1281.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A Coachella Valley Water District worker surveys a debris flow following heavy rains from Tropical Storm Hilary, at Thunderbird Country Club in Rancho Mirage, California, on Aug. 21, 2023. (David Swanson/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The last time a tropical storm swept over California was in \u003ca href=\"https://web.archive.org/web/20080229155402/http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/research/Guide/weatherhistory.pdf\">1939\u003c/a>. But remnants of tropical storms have made landfall — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11958562/hurricane-hilary-hits-what-california-and-the-bay-area-can-expect\">Hilary\u003c/a> brought significant rain and flooding to Southern California in August 2023, causing nearly a billion dollars in damage to the state.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It wasn’t a hurricane by the time it reached here,” Villafane said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sea surface temperatures are in the mid- to upper-50s off the Bay Area coast. “Warm water is one of the things you need for a tropical cyclone formation, which is what El Niño really is,” Villafane said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Models show a range of possibilities for the storm’s track once it forms, including one with a 5% chance of direct impacts on Southern California, she said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you cherry-pick models, it makes it look like we’re going to get it,” Villafane said. “But a lot of the other models have it going in a different direction.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If the system moves north, it could lead to a higher chance of precipitation — but not significantly windy conditions, according to Brian Garcia, warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/GettyImages-2227074366-scaled-e1758749155173.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12050295\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A view of the Pacific Ocean along the coastline at Pacifica Municipal Pier in Pacifica, California, United States on July 30, 2025. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“In terms of seeing any sort of storm come up towards the Bay Area or even as close as the Central Coast, it’s pretty much a nonstarter,” Garcia said. “We can’t get a hurricane up across these waters because the waters are just too cold.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“But we could get moisture to build across our area, which could bring significant rainfall,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Garcia also said that a cold, low-pressure system moving south from the Gulf of Alaska, which could affect the Pacific Northwest by midweek, could reach the Bay Area near the end of the workweek. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It could provide a highway for the remnants of the tropical system to ride along and bring it across different portions of California,” Garcia said. “It is definitely something that we’re watching, we’re keeping an eye on, and we’ll be messaging out to our partners as things become a little bit more concrete.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The storm brewing off the Baja coast is fueled in part by the very strong El Niño, a natural climate pattern that is gaining momentum and warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Temperatures off the coast of San Diego are about \u003ca href=\"https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Scripps-Pier/seatemp\">8 degrees above the average\u003c/a> for this time of year, according to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is one consequence of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12037679\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-800x530.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1020x676.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1536x1018.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1920x1272.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An automated National Weather Service weather station collects data on a bluff overlooking the Pacific Ocean in Montara, California, on April 5, 2016. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Paul Chinn/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>During his YouTube \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDPdXP-EnQQ\">office hours\u003c/a> on Monday, Swain said that the ocean off the coast of Southern California and off the west coast of Mexico “is the warmest it has ever been in recorded history.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>During his YouTube \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDPdXP-EnQQ\">office hours\u003c/a> on Monday, Swain said that the ocean off the coast of Southern California and off the west coast of Mexico “is the warmest it has ever been in recorded history.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“There is a record-breaking amount of potential energy stored in that surface ocean,” Swain said. “There is a lot of extra moisture in the overlying atmosphere because, of course, warm water means more evaporation.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“There is a record-breaking amount of potential energy stored in that surface ocean,” Swain said. “There is a lot of extra moisture in the overlying atmosphere because, of course, warm water means more evaporation.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But meteorologists are making it clear that California’s coast has a small chance of a tropical storm making landfall, and an even smaller chance of a hurricane, over the next week. NWS forecasters reported that it’s the “least likely outcome at this point.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But meteorologists are making it clear that California’s coast has a small chance of a tropical storm making landfall, and an even smaller chance of a hurricane, over the next week. NWS forecasters reported that it’s the “least likely outcome at this point.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Everything in between is also on the table,” Los Angeles-based weather service meteorologists wrote in their daily \u003ca href=\"https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lox&issuedby=LOX&product=AFD\">forecast discussion\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Everything in between is also on the table,” Los Angeles-based weather service meteorologists wrote in their daily \u003ca href=\"https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lox&issuedby=LOX&product=AFD\">forecast discussion\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If the storm forms and veers west, California will likely get very little rain or wind, forecasters said. But if it moves northeast, remnants of the tropical storm increase the chances of rain in Southern California and eventually the Bay Area.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“To be clear, there is virtually no chance that a hurricane will make landfall in California,” Bay Area weather forecasters wrote in their daily forecast discussion. “The actual water temperature is still far too cold to support a tropical cyclone.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>If the storm forms and veers west, California will likely get very little rain or wind, forecasters said. But if it moves northeast, remnants of the tropical storm increase the chances of rain in Southern California and eventually the Bay Area.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“To be clear, there is virtually no chance that a hurricane will make landfall in California,” Bay Area weather forecasters wrote in their daily forecast discussion. “The actual water temperature is still far too cold to support a tropical cyclone.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Lauren Villafane, a meteorologist with the NWS San Diego office, said cooler water off the California coast usually protects the state from the effects of intense tropical storms or hurricanes. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Lauren Villafane, a meteorologist with the NWS San Diego office, said cooler water off the California coast usually protects the state from the effects of intense tropical storms or hurricanes. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Until it actually develops into something and we get more confidence in its track, I can’t put out anything with any real confidence,” Villafane said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Until it actually develops into something and we get more confidence in its track, I can’t put out anything with any real confidence,” Villafane said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Even with our above-average temperatures that we have going on currently, it’s still not those ideal temperatures for tropical cyclone formation,” Villafane said. “Our cold water actually has the tendency to kill things off. So, which is why we usually end up with tropical remnants over the area if we get anything at all.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Even with our above-average temperatures that we have going on currently, it’s still not those ideal temperatures for tropical cyclone formation,” Villafane said. “Our cold water actually has the tendency to kill things off. So, which is why we usually end up with tropical remnants over the area if we get anything at all.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-2048x1366.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1920x1281.jpg 1920w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"A man walks next to a large highway that has been completely blockaded by debris.\" class=\"wp-image-11958712\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-2048x1366.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1920x1281.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A Coachella Valley Water District worker surveys a debris flow following heavy rains from Tropical Storm Hilary, at Thunderbird Country Club in Rancho Mirage, California, on Aug. 21, 2023.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (David Swanson/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"A man walks next to a large highway that has been completely blockaded by debris.\" class=\"wp-image-11958712\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A Coachella Valley Water District worker surveys a debris flow following heavy rains from Tropical Storm Hilary, at Thunderbird Country Club in Rancho Mirage, California, on Aug. 21, 2023.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (David Swanson/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The last time a tropical storm swept over California was in \u003ca href=\"https://web.archive.org/web/20080229155402/http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/research/Guide/weatherhistory.pdf\">1939\u003c/a>. But remnants of tropical storms have made landfall — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11958562/hurricane-hilary-hits-what-california-and-the-bay-area-can-expect\">Hilary\u003c/a> brought significant rain and flooding to Southern California in August 2023, causing nearly a billion dollars in damage to the state.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The last time a tropical storm swept over California was in \u003ca href=\"https://web.archive.org/web/20080229155402/http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/research/Guide/weatherhistory.pdf\">1939\u003c/a>. But remnants of tropical storms have made landfall — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11958562/hurricane-hilary-hits-what-california-and-the-bay-area-can-expect\">Hilary\u003c/a> brought significant rain and flooding to Southern California in August 2023, causing nearly a billion dollars in damage to the state.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It wasn’t a hurricane by the time it reached here,” Villafane said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It wasn’t a hurricane by the time it reached here,” Villafane said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Sea surface temperatures are in the mid- to upper-50s off the Bay Area coast. “Warm water is one of the things you need for a tropical cyclone formation, which is what El Niño really is,” Villafane said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Sea surface temperatures are in the mid- to upper-50s off the Bay Area coast. “Warm water is one of the things you need for a tropical cyclone formation, which is what El Niño really is,” Villafane said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Models show a range of possibilities for the storm’s track once it forms, including one with a 5% chance of direct impacts on Southern California, she said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Models show a range of possibilities for the storm’s track once it forms, including one with a 5% chance of direct impacts on Southern California, she said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If you cherry-pick models, it makes it look like we’re going to get it,” Villafane said. “But a lot of the other models have it going in a different direction.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If you cherry-pick models, it makes it look like we’re going to get it,” Villafane said. “But a lot of the other models have it going in a different direction.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If the system moves north, it could lead to a higher chance of precipitation — but not significantly windy conditions, according to Brian Garcia, warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>If the system moves north, it could lead to a higher chance of precipitation — but not significantly windy conditions, according to Brian Garcia, warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/GettyImages-2227074366-scaled-e1758749155173.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12050295\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A view of the Pacific Ocean along the coastline at Pacifica Municipal Pier in Pacifica, California, United States on July 30, 2025. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/GettyImages-2227074366-scaled-e1758749155173.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12050295\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A view of the Pacific Ocean along the coastline at Pacifica Municipal Pier in Pacifica, California, United States on July 30, 2025. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“In terms of seeing any sort of storm come up towards the Bay Area or even as close as the Central Coast, it’s pretty much a nonstarter,” Garcia said. “We can’t get a hurricane up across these waters because the waters are just too cold.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“But we could get moisture to build across our area, which could bring significant rainfall,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“In terms of seeing any sort of storm come up towards the Bay Area or even as close as the Central Coast, it’s pretty much a nonstarter,” Garcia said. “We can’t get a hurricane up across these waters because the waters are just too cold.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“But we could get moisture to build across our area, which could bring significant rainfall,” he said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Garcia also said that a cold, low-pressure system moving south from the Gulf of Alaska, which could affect the Pacific Northwest by midweek, could reach the Bay Area near the end of the workweek. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Garcia also said that a cold, low-pressure system moving south from the Gulf of Alaska, which could affect the Pacific Northwest by midweek, could reach the Bay Area near the end of the workweek. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It could provide a highway for the remnants of the tropical system to ride along and bring it across different portions of California,” Garcia said. “It is definitely something that we’re watching, we’re keeping an eye on, and we’ll be messaging out to our partners as things become a little bit more concrete.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It could provide a highway for the remnants of the tropical system to ride along and bring it across different portions of California,” Garcia said. “It is definitely something that we’re watching, we’re keeping an eye on, and we’ll be messaging out to our partners as things become a little bit more concrete.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "A tropical storm could send rain toward California, but forecasters say that a direct hit remains a long shot.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>A tropical storm is forming off the coast of Baja \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/california\">California,\u003c/a> a system that national forecasters say has a virtually nonexistent chance of intensifying into a hurricane.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The National Hurricane Center is predicting a \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=7\">90% chance\u003c/a> of a tropical storm forming in the Baja California area within the next 48 hours and within the next seven days. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The storm brewing off the Baja coast is fueled in part by the very strong El Niño, a natural climate pattern that is gaining momentum and warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Temperatures off the coast of San Diego are about \u003ca href=\"https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Scripps-Pier/seatemp\">8 degrees above the average\u003c/a> for this time of year, according to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is one consequence of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1325\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12037679\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-800x530.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1020x676.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1536x1018.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1920x1272.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An automated National Weather Service weather station collects data on a bluff overlooking the Pacific Ocean in Montara, California, on April 5, 2016. (Paul Chinn/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During his YouTube \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDPdXP-EnQQ\">office hours\u003c/a> on Monday, Swain said that the ocean off the coast of Southern California and off the west coast of Mexico “is the warmest it has ever been in recorded history.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There is a record-breaking amount of potential energy stored in that surface ocean,” Swain said. “There is a lot of extra moisture in the overlying atmosphere because, of course, warm water means more evaporation.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But meteorologists are making it clear that California’s coast has a small chance of a tropical storm making landfall, and an even smaller chance of a hurricane, over the next week. NWS forecasters reported that it’s the “least likely outcome at this point.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Everything in between is also on the table,” Los Angeles-based weather service meteorologists wrote in their daily \u003ca href=\"https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lox&issuedby=LOX&product=AFD\">forecast discussion\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If the storm forms and veers west, California will likely get very little rain or wind, forecasters said. But if it moves northeast, remnants of the tropical storm increase the chances of rain in Southern California and eventually the Bay Area.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“To be clear, there is virtually no chance that a hurricane will make landfall in California,” Bay Area weather forecasters wrote in their daily forecast discussion. “The actual water temperature is still far too cold to support a tropical cyclone.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Lauren Villafane, a meteorologist with the NWS San Diego office, said cooler water off the California coast usually protects the state from the effects of intense tropical storms or hurricanes. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Until it actually develops into something and we get more confidence in its track, I can’t put out anything with any real confidence,” Villafane said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Even with our above-average temperatures that we have going on currently, it’s still not those ideal temperatures for tropical cyclone formation,” Villafane said. “Our cold water actually has the tendency to kill things off. So, which is why we usually end up with tropical remnants over the area if we get anything at all.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1708\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"A man walks next to a large highway that has been completely blockaded by debris.\" class=\"wp-image-11958712\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-2048x1366.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2023/08/GettyImages-1614120563-1920x1281.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A Coachella Valley Water District worker surveys a debris flow following heavy rains from Tropical Storm Hilary, at Thunderbird Country Club in Rancho Mirage, California, on Aug. 21, 2023. (David Swanson/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The last time a tropical storm swept over California was in \u003ca href=\"https://web.archive.org/web/20080229155402/http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/research/Guide/weatherhistory.pdf\">1939\u003c/a>. But remnants of tropical storms have made landfall — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11958562/hurricane-hilary-hits-what-california-and-the-bay-area-can-expect\">Hilary\u003c/a> brought significant rain and flooding to Southern California in August 2023, causing nearly a billion dollars in damage to the state.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It wasn’t a hurricane by the time it reached here,” Villafane said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sea surface temperatures are in the mid- to upper-50s off the Bay Area coast. “Warm water is one of the things you need for a tropical cyclone formation, which is what El Niño really is,” Villafane said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Models show a range of possibilities for the storm’s track once it forms, including one with a 5% chance of direct impacts on Southern California, she said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you cherry-pick models, it makes it look like we’re going to get it,” Villafane said. “But a lot of the other models have it going in a different direction.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If the system moves north, it could lead to a higher chance of precipitation — but not significantly windy conditions, according to Brian Garcia, warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/GettyImages-2227074366-scaled-e1758749155173.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12050295\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A view of the Pacific Ocean along the coastline at Pacifica Municipal Pier in Pacifica, California, United States on July 30, 2025. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“In terms of seeing any sort of storm come up towards the Bay Area or even as close as the Central Coast, it’s pretty much a nonstarter,” Garcia said. “We can’t get a hurricane up across these waters because the waters are just too cold.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“But we could get moisture to build across our area, which could bring significant rainfall,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Garcia also said that a cold, low-pressure system moving south from the Gulf of Alaska, which could affect the Pacific Northwest by midweek, could reach the Bay Area near the end of the workweek. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It could provide a highway for the remnants of the tropical system to ride along and bring it across different portions of California,” Garcia said. “It is definitely something that we’re watching, we’re keeping an eye on, and we’ll be messaging out to our partners as things become a little bit more concrete.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cb>Here are the morning’s top stories on Thursday, July 2, 2026\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Fourth of July weekend is almost here and many of us are pulling out the grills and the barbecue sauce. But across the state, fire crews are bracing for a very different kind of heat. California’s weather has become more unpredictable, drier in some places and potentially wetter in others, and that’s due to the El Nino weather pattern. But what does that mean for potential wildfires? \u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">California’s Department of Motor Vehicles is on track to\u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/06/driver-license-sharing/\"> share driver’s license data with a national database.\u003c/a> The plan is moving forward despite concerns from immigrant advocates that the information could expose people to deportation.\u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>El Niño among the factors that could play into severity of wildfires this year \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>With summer well underway, California has seen fairly mild weather. But the federal agency that puts together long-term fire outlooks said that the danger or the potential for bad fires is going to be above normal, north of the Bay Area and normal south of that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Normal fire danger can still be bad in California. And it’s still unclear how the influence of our strong \u003cspan class=\"T286Pc\" data-sfc-cp=\"\" data-sfc-root=\"ep\" data-sfc-cb=\"\" data-complete=\"true\" data-copy-service-computed-style='font-family: \"Google Sans\", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif, \"Noto Color Emoji\"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 0px rgb(10, 10, 10);'>\u003cspan class=\"\" data-sfc-cp=\"\" data-sfc-root=\"c\" data-sfc-cb=\"\" data-ved=\"2ahUKEwjZ5tbBzLSVAxWjDzQIHWNWBRoQ0fERegoIAggACAAIBhAD\" data-complete=\"true\" data-copy-service-computed-style='font-family: \"Google Sans\", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif, \"Noto Color Emoji\"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 0px rgb(10, 10, 10);'>El Niño\u003c/span>\u003c/span> that we’re seeing is going to affect fire season. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources said that California’s on this razor’s edge of whether \u003cspan class=\"T286Pc\" data-sfc-cp=\"\" data-sfc-root=\"ep\" data-sfc-cb=\"\" data-complete=\"true\" data-copy-service-computed-style='font-family: \"Google Sans\", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif, \"Noto Color Emoji\"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 0px rgb(10, 10, 10);'>\u003cspan class=\"\" data-sfc-cp=\"\" data-sfc-root=\"c\" data-sfc-cb=\"\" data-ved=\"2ahUKEwjZ5tbBzLSVAxWjDzQIHWNWBRoQ0fERegoIAggACAAIBhAD\" data-complete=\"true\" data-copy-service-computed-style='font-family: \"Google Sans\", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif, \"Noto Color Emoji\"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 0px rgb(10, 10, 10);'>El Niño\u003c/span>\u003c/span> will make fires worse or better this season. “If we get summer showers, autumn downpours, like we did with the tropical storm Dolores or Hillary twice in the past decade, then we might shut down Southern California’s fire season early,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there are far worse scenarios as well. California could get a combination of atmospheric conditions that can lead to thunderstorms. With dry lightning, a lot of wind and not a lot of water, that combo can lead to very bad fire conditions. In 2020, when we were still in the full swing of the pandemic, California had tens of thousands of dry lightning strikes during a tropical storm. It was called Tropical Storm Fausto. And the state had hundreds and hundreds of fires that sprang up overnight. Firefighting equipment personnel was taxed, drawn down like it really had never been before or since.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2 class=\"entry-title \">\u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/06/driver-license-sharing/\">\u003cstrong>California to share driver license data despite fears it could expose unauthorized immigrants\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Department of Motor Vehicles is on track to share driver’s license and identification data with an outside network despite concerns from immigrant advocates that the information could expose people to deportation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The California Legislature authorized that sharing in the \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/06/california-gavin-newsom-final-budget-deal/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">state budget it passed on Monday\u003c/a>, along with a separate transportation measure that laid out some special oversight procedures to protect the data. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the budget and is expected to approve the companion measure, which his administration negotiated with lawmakers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lawmakers earlier had \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/economy/technology/2026/06/dmv-data-sharing-california-budget/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">refused to approve the data sharing plan\u003c/a> until protections were \u003ca href=\"https://sbud.senate.ca.gov/system/files/2026-06/june-29-2026-hearing-agenda-senate-budget.pdf#page=44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">put in place\u003c/a> late last week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The stakes are high for the more than 1 million immigrants who have driver’s licenses. The system records the last five digits of a driver’s Social Security number and uses the placeholder “99999” for people without one. Advocates fear that feeding that information into a national database could expose undocumented Californians to federal immigration enforcement and told CalMatters in April that such a plan amounts to “\u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/economy/technology/2026/04/california-dmv-shares-immigrant-driver-data/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a betrayal\u003c/a>.” Earlier this year, the governor’s office told CalMatters that reporting on the dispute amounted to “manufacturing fear and panic with lies.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new state budget includes $55 million, which the DMV will use to enable the sharing of California records with the State-to-State Verification Service and SPEX database run by the nonprofit American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA). State officials have argued that the data sharing is needed to comply with the federal REAL ID Act, warning that if California does not participate, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security could refuse to accept state IDs at airports. They say the system can only be queried for one record at a time using information supplied by an applicant and that bulk searches are not possible.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cb>Here are the morning’s top stories on Thursday, July 2, 2026\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Fourth of July weekend is almost here and many of us are pulling out the grills and the barbecue sauce. But across the state, fire crews are bracing for a very different kind of heat. California’s weather has become more unpredictable, drier in some places and potentially wetter in others, and that’s due to the El Nino weather pattern. But what does that mean for potential wildfires? \u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">California’s Department of Motor Vehicles is on track to\u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/06/driver-license-sharing/\"> share driver’s license data with a national database.\u003c/a> The plan is moving forward despite concerns from immigrant advocates that the information could expose people to deportation.\u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>El Niño among the factors that could play into severity of wildfires this year \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>With summer well underway, California has seen fairly mild weather. But the federal agency that puts together long-term fire outlooks said that the danger or the potential for bad fires is going to be above normal, north of the Bay Area and normal south of that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Normal fire danger can still be bad in California. And it’s still unclear how the influence of our strong \u003cspan class=\"T286Pc\" data-sfc-cp=\"\" data-sfc-root=\"ep\" data-sfc-cb=\"\" data-complete=\"true\" data-copy-service-computed-style='font-family: \"Google Sans\", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif, \"Noto Color Emoji\"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 0px rgb(10, 10, 10);'>\u003cspan class=\"\" data-sfc-cp=\"\" data-sfc-root=\"c\" data-sfc-cb=\"\" data-ved=\"2ahUKEwjZ5tbBzLSVAxWjDzQIHWNWBRoQ0fERegoIAggACAAIBhAD\" data-complete=\"true\" data-copy-service-computed-style='font-family: \"Google Sans\", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif, \"Noto Color Emoji\"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 0px rgb(10, 10, 10);'>El Niño\u003c/span>\u003c/span> that we’re seeing is going to affect fire season. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources said that California’s on this razor’s edge of whether \u003cspan class=\"T286Pc\" data-sfc-cp=\"\" data-sfc-root=\"ep\" data-sfc-cb=\"\" data-complete=\"true\" data-copy-service-computed-style='font-family: \"Google Sans\", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif, \"Noto Color Emoji\"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 0px rgb(10, 10, 10);'>\u003cspan class=\"\" data-sfc-cp=\"\" data-sfc-root=\"c\" data-sfc-cb=\"\" data-ved=\"2ahUKEwjZ5tbBzLSVAxWjDzQIHWNWBRoQ0fERegoIAggACAAIBhAD\" data-complete=\"true\" data-copy-service-computed-style='font-family: \"Google Sans\", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif, \"Noto Color Emoji\"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 0px rgb(10, 10, 10);'>El Niño\u003c/span>\u003c/span> will make fires worse or better this season. “If we get summer showers, autumn downpours, like we did with the tropical storm Dolores or Hillary twice in the past decade, then we might shut down Southern California’s fire season early,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there are far worse scenarios as well. California could get a combination of atmospheric conditions that can lead to thunderstorms. With dry lightning, a lot of wind and not a lot of water, that combo can lead to very bad fire conditions. In 2020, when we were still in the full swing of the pandemic, California had tens of thousands of dry lightning strikes during a tropical storm. It was called Tropical Storm Fausto. And the state had hundreds and hundreds of fires that sprang up overnight. Firefighting equipment personnel was taxed, drawn down like it really had never been before or since.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2 class=\"entry-title \">\u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/06/driver-license-sharing/\">\u003cstrong>California to share driver license data despite fears it could expose unauthorized immigrants\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Department of Motor Vehicles is on track to share driver’s license and identification data with an outside network despite concerns from immigrant advocates that the information could expose people to deportation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The California Legislature authorized that sharing in the \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/06/california-gavin-newsom-final-budget-deal/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">state budget it passed on Monday\u003c/a>, along with a separate transportation measure that laid out some special oversight procedures to protect the data. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the budget and is expected to approve the companion measure, which his administration negotiated with lawmakers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lawmakers earlier had \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/economy/technology/2026/06/dmv-data-sharing-california-budget/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">refused to approve the data sharing plan\u003c/a> until protections were \u003ca href=\"https://sbud.senate.ca.gov/system/files/2026-06/june-29-2026-hearing-agenda-senate-budget.pdf#page=44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">put in place\u003c/a> late last week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The stakes are high for the more than 1 million immigrants who have driver’s licenses. The system records the last five digits of a driver’s Social Security number and uses the placeholder “99999” for people without one. Advocates fear that feeding that information into a national database could expose undocumented Californians to federal immigration enforcement and told CalMatters in April that such a plan amounts to “\u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/economy/technology/2026/04/california-dmv-shares-immigrant-driver-data/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a betrayal\u003c/a>.” Earlier this year, the governor’s office told CalMatters that reporting on the dispute amounted to “manufacturing fear and panic with lies.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new state budget includes $55 million, which the DMV will use to enable the sharing of California records with the State-to-State Verification Service and SPEX database run by the nonprofit American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA). State officials have argued that the data sharing is needed to comply with the federal REAL ID Act, warning that if California does not participate, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security could refuse to accept state IDs at airports. They say the system can only be queried for one record at a time using information supplied by an applicant and that bulk searches are not possible.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "El Niño Could Bring ‘Disruptive Coastal Flooding’ to Bay Area This Winter",
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"content": "\u003cp>Pacifica’s pier \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001267/you-cant-beat-mother-nature-destroyed-cafe-gives-pacifica-look-at-climate-changed-future\">cracked\u003c/a>. Parts of Marin County are underwater this week, thanks to the Bay Area’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087558/san-francisco-and-marin-face-flooding-amid-highest-summer-tide-on-record\">highest-ever summer tides\u003c/a>. And climate scientists expect coastal flooding to get worse this fall and winter, because of the potentially ‘Super’ \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087122/el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter\">El Niño\u003c/a> brewing thousands of miles away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Federal scientists are now sure El Niño will affect global weather patterns this year. And Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, said on \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/live/blLHZdhqZ1o\">Tuesday\u003c/a> there’s a 90% confidence level that a record-breaking El Niño event will occur, which could intensify storms, heat up \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">ocean water\u003c/a> off the California coast and temporarily raise sea levels. Swain said a wetter-than-normal winter is not guaranteed, but San Francisco Bay levels are “almost guaranteed” to be higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s going to be a big concern this year, and it’s only going to grow as this El Niño event intensifies,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to move toward the Pacific Coast. This process heats the eastern Pacific Ocean and can alter the jet stream. As a result, it can lead to a stormier winter in California. It can also disrupt the ocean’s upwelling — a natural process that drives cool, nutrient-rich water to the surface — raising local ocean temperatures and affecting marine life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Pacific Ocean has risen by about 8 inches since the 1880s. State scientists project an additional rise of over a foot by 2050, and in worst-case scenarios, 6 feet or more by the end of the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“El Niño is going to temporarily elevate that baseline even further,” Swain said. “There’s significant potential that the combination of accumulated global warming plus a very strong to maybe even historic El Niño event in its own right could cause big problems.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12087664\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12087664\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_003-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_003-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_003-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_003-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A home along Golden Hind Passage is raised above its foundation in Corte Madera on June 15, 2026. Some homeowners are elevating structures as part of long-term efforts to adapt to recurring tidal flooding. \u003ccite>(Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Swain said El Niño could temporarily raise sea levels on average by “6 inches to 2 feet in elevation for the rest of the year.” Storms and onshore winds can also raise sea levels by a foot or two.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though that increase may not seem like a lot, combined, Swain said they could add up to a “net increase in sea level during the largest coastal flood events that’s comparable to mid-chest height on the average person.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This level of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12069118/for-marin-county-last-weekends-floods-were-a-wake-up-call\">inundation\u003c/a> could pose a major risk when natural high tides and storms occur in tandem. Swain said \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2000377/for-this-bay-area-island-city-water-is-coming-from-all-sides\">elevated sea levels\u003c/a> will be a big deal for places that routinely flood across Northern California, including coastal cities like \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087577/after-pacifica-pier-damage-bay-area-leaders-urge-trump-to-restore-aid\">Pacifica\u003c/a>, San Francisco, Santa Cruz and parts of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">Marin County\u003c/a> along the bayshore.[aside postID=news_12087122 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/09/GettyImages-2197490970-scaled-e1759169024848.jpg']“All of a sudden, we kind of get to the point where 2 to 3 plus feet of temporary sea elevation is possible near California later this year during a major storm event and at least a foot or two the rest of the time,” Swain said. “We may see all-time record high water levels during storm events or king tides this year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He adds that this advance notice should prompt local governments to prepare for the coming waves and high tides, especially agencies that run low-lying highways and communities that flood during extreme high tides and storm events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have problems,” Swain said. “There is some time to do some mitigation. You have several months at least before the most disruptive coastal flooding is likely to arrive.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Scientists warn the potential super El Niño could push Bay Area tides to record highs from Santa Cruz to Marin.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Pacifica’s pier \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001267/you-cant-beat-mother-nature-destroyed-cafe-gives-pacifica-look-at-climate-changed-future\">cracked\u003c/a>. Parts of Marin County are underwater this week, thanks to the Bay Area’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087558/san-francisco-and-marin-face-flooding-amid-highest-summer-tide-on-record\">highest-ever summer tides\u003c/a>. And climate scientists expect coastal flooding to get worse this fall and winter, because of the potentially ‘Super’ \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087122/el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter\">El Niño\u003c/a> brewing thousands of miles away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Federal scientists are now sure El Niño will affect global weather patterns this year. And Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, said on \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/live/blLHZdhqZ1o\">Tuesday\u003c/a> there’s a 90% confidence level that a record-breaking El Niño event will occur, which could intensify storms, heat up \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">ocean water\u003c/a> off the California coast and temporarily raise sea levels. Swain said a wetter-than-normal winter is not guaranteed, but San Francisco Bay levels are “almost guaranteed” to be higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s going to be a big concern this year, and it’s only going to grow as this El Niño event intensifies,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to move toward the Pacific Coast. This process heats the eastern Pacific Ocean and can alter the jet stream. As a result, it can lead to a stormier winter in California. It can also disrupt the ocean’s upwelling — a natural process that drives cool, nutrient-rich water to the surface — raising local ocean temperatures and affecting marine life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Pacific Ocean has risen by about 8 inches since the 1880s. State scientists project an additional rise of over a foot by 2050, and in worst-case scenarios, 6 feet or more by the end of the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“El Niño is going to temporarily elevate that baseline even further,” Swain said. “There’s significant potential that the combination of accumulated global warming plus a very strong to maybe even historic El Niño event in its own right could cause big problems.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12087664\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12087664\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_003-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_003-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_003-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/061526Flooding_GH_003-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A home along Golden Hind Passage is raised above its foundation in Corte Madera on June 15, 2026. Some homeowners are elevating structures as part of long-term efforts to adapt to recurring tidal flooding. \u003ccite>(Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Swain said El Niño could temporarily raise sea levels on average by “6 inches to 2 feet in elevation for the rest of the year.” Storms and onshore winds can also raise sea levels by a foot or two.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though that increase may not seem like a lot, combined, Swain said they could add up to a “net increase in sea level during the largest coastal flood events that’s comparable to mid-chest height on the average person.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This level of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12069118/for-marin-county-last-weekends-floods-were-a-wake-up-call\">inundation\u003c/a> could pose a major risk when natural high tides and storms occur in tandem. Swain said \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2000377/for-this-bay-area-island-city-water-is-coming-from-all-sides\">elevated sea levels\u003c/a> will be a big deal for places that routinely flood across Northern California, including coastal cities like \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087577/after-pacifica-pier-damage-bay-area-leaders-urge-trump-to-restore-aid\">Pacifica\u003c/a>, San Francisco, Santa Cruz and parts of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">Marin County\u003c/a> along the bayshore.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“All of a sudden, we kind of get to the point where 2 to 3 plus feet of temporary sea elevation is possible near California later this year during a major storm event and at least a foot or two the rest of the time,” Swain said. “We may see all-time record high water levels during storm events or king tides this year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He adds that this advance notice should prompt local governments to prepare for the coming waves and high tides, especially agencies that run low-lying highways and communities that flood during extreme high tides and storm events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have problems,” Swain said. “There is some time to do some mitigation. You have several months at least before the most disruptive coastal flooding is likely to arrive.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter",
"title": "El Niño Is Here. Here’s What It Could Mean for the Bay Area This Winter",
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"content": "\u003cp>It’s official: \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12083376/an-incoming-super-el-nino-may-bring-california-a-wet-hot-winter\">El Niño\u003c/a> has formed, and climate experts expect the natural phenomenon to strengthen this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The federal agency forecasts a 63% chance of a very strong \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101913837/a-monster-el-nino-is-brewing-in-the-pacific\">El Niño\u003c/a> this year, which “would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">wrote Thursday\u003c/a>. Historically, the climate pattern has increased the odds of wet, stormy weather across California, especially the southern part of the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But because the Bay Area sits on the northernmost edge of the wet zone, intense rainfall is less guaranteed than in Southern California. Still, experts said human-caused climate change may be changing that equation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What that means for California is it’s basically supercharged in the atmosphere,” said Patrick Barnard, research director for the UC Santa Cruz Center for Coastal Climate Resilience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to move toward the Pacific Coast. This process heats the Eastern Pacific Ocean and can alter the jet stream. As a result, it can lead to a stormier winter in California. It can also disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">raising local ocean temperatures\u003c/a> and impacting sea life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“El Niño is here,” said Tyler Roys, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather. “Overall, the pattern is going to favor wetter than the historical average for the Bay Area, for Sacramento, for the Central Valley, going all the way down to Southern California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12037679\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12037679\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1325\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-800x530.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1020x676.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1536x1018.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1920x1272.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An automated National Weather Service weather station collects data on a bluff overlooking the Pacific Ocean in Montara, California, on April 5, 2016. \u003ccite>(Paul Chinn/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Climate experts said El Niño likely means that a very different winter is looming. As opposed to this year’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2000775/sierra-storm-will-dump-more-april-snow-but-wont-fix-california-snowpack\">wet but short-lived season\u003c/a>, they anticipate several potential impacts: more intense atmospheric rivers, major snow events in the Sierra Nevada, larger waves, coastal flooding, mudslides, higher sea levels and reduced wildfire risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This El Niño is developing unusually fast,” AccuWeather expert meteorologist Paul Pastelok said in a statement. “Most El Niños begin in the fall. This one should start in June and strengthen quickly.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pastelok said there’s a 40% chance that a super El Niño will form this year, which has only occurred seven times in modern history. The rare event was last documented in the winter of 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That bar is difficult to reach, so current factors contributing to the development need to continue in the second half of 2026 to allow it to build,” Pastelok said.[aside postID=news_12086933 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/06/260610-RISKYWX00337_TV-KQED.jpg']Barnard said El Niño could also temporarily \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12083376/an-incoming-super-el-nino-may-bring-california-a-wet-hot-winter\">raise sea levels\u003c/a> by half a foot or more. This means that places like \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001267/you-cant-beat-mother-nature-destroyed-cafe-gives-pacifica-look-at-climate-changed-future\">Pacifica\u003c/a>, Sausalito, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999461/king-tides-to-flood-bay-area-shorelines-this-week-heres-where-and-when-to-safely-see-them\">San Francisco\u003c/a> and San Rafael, which already flood during \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">king tides\u003c/a>, could experience even worse inundation this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnard said that conditions this winter could be a “precursor to what we can expect to have almost every single winter” in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Pacific Ocean has risen by about 8 inches since the 1880s. State scientists project an additional rise of over a foot by 2050, and in worst-case scenarios, up to 6 feet or more by the end of the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnard said that for every couple of inches of sea level rise, the risk of coastal flooding doubles. And with up to a foot of this temporary rise, “the probability of flooding goes up exponentially.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve built up so much of our communities right in this razor-thin margin of the sea, and so when all of a sudden you raise that base level by 6 to 12 inches, you’re really putting a lot of assets in harm’s way,” Barnard said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When it comes to potential storms this winter, Barnard said the effects of human-caused climate change are pushing the jet stream closer to the poles, which means the effects of El Niño, primarily intensified storms, could shift north to the Bay Area rather than focusing on Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The biggest El Niño impacts are moving more to the north than they did 50 years ago,” Barnard said. “We’re just looking at a different climate as a starting point when the onset of El Niño conditions hit us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>AccuWeather’s Roys said that at this point, it’s “very difficult” to know exactly how intense this winter’s storms will be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12081188\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12081188\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/04/19thAveSFGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/04/19thAveSFGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/04/19thAveSFGetty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/04/19thAveSFGetty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pedestrian crosses a rain-soaked 19th Avenue amidst the ongoing winter storm in San Francisco on Feb. 17, 2026. \u003ccite>(Stephen Lam/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“It won’t change the number [of storms] that occur, but the intensity is likely to vary towards the higher side,” Roys said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Roys said El Niño could shorten the wildfire season this winter, if the rains truly show up in force across the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the ground is more saturated, things don’t dry out, and when things don’t necessarily dry out, it doesn’t become fuel and fire won’t spread as fast,” Roys said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Roys also noted that El Niño isn’t the only global weather factor altering weather patterns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s kind of like when you’re cooking, one ingredient can overpower another one,” Roys said. “What we’re still figuring out for the fall and for the winter is how that’s all going to play out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Federal officials report that there’s a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño this year. As a result, the Bay Area may experience a wetter, riskier winter.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>It’s official: \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12083376/an-incoming-super-el-nino-may-bring-california-a-wet-hot-winter\">El Niño\u003c/a> has formed, and climate experts expect the natural phenomenon to strengthen this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The federal agency forecasts a 63% chance of a very strong \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101913837/a-monster-el-nino-is-brewing-in-the-pacific\">El Niño\u003c/a> this year, which “would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">wrote Thursday\u003c/a>. Historically, the climate pattern has increased the odds of wet, stormy weather across California, especially the southern part of the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But because the Bay Area sits on the northernmost edge of the wet zone, intense rainfall is less guaranteed than in Southern California. Still, experts said human-caused climate change may be changing that equation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What that means for California is it’s basically supercharged in the atmosphere,” said Patrick Barnard, research director for the UC Santa Cruz Center for Coastal Climate Resilience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to move toward the Pacific Coast. This process heats the Eastern Pacific Ocean and can alter the jet stream. As a result, it can lead to a stormier winter in California. It can also disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">raising local ocean temperatures\u003c/a> and impacting sea life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“El Niño is here,” said Tyler Roys, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather. “Overall, the pattern is going to favor wetter than the historical average for the Bay Area, for Sacramento, for the Central Valley, going all the way down to Southern California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12037679\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12037679\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1325\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-800x530.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1020x676.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1536x1018.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/NationalWeatherServiceGetty-1920x1272.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An automated National Weather Service weather station collects data on a bluff overlooking the Pacific Ocean in Montara, California, on April 5, 2016. \u003ccite>(Paul Chinn/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Climate experts said El Niño likely means that a very different winter is looming. As opposed to this year’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2000775/sierra-storm-will-dump-more-april-snow-but-wont-fix-california-snowpack\">wet but short-lived season\u003c/a>, they anticipate several potential impacts: more intense atmospheric rivers, major snow events in the Sierra Nevada, larger waves, coastal flooding, mudslides, higher sea levels and reduced wildfire risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This El Niño is developing unusually fast,” AccuWeather expert meteorologist Paul Pastelok said in a statement. “Most El Niños begin in the fall. This one should start in June and strengthen quickly.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pastelok said there’s a 40% chance that a super El Niño will form this year, which has only occurred seven times in modern history. The rare event was last documented in the winter of 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That bar is difficult to reach, so current factors contributing to the development need to continue in the second half of 2026 to allow it to build,” Pastelok said.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Barnard said El Niño could also temporarily \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12083376/an-incoming-super-el-nino-may-bring-california-a-wet-hot-winter\">raise sea levels\u003c/a> by half a foot or more. This means that places like \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001267/you-cant-beat-mother-nature-destroyed-cafe-gives-pacifica-look-at-climate-changed-future\">Pacifica\u003c/a>, Sausalito, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999461/king-tides-to-flood-bay-area-shorelines-this-week-heres-where-and-when-to-safely-see-them\">San Francisco\u003c/a> and San Rafael, which already flood during \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">king tides\u003c/a>, could experience even worse inundation this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnard said that conditions this winter could be a “precursor to what we can expect to have almost every single winter” in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Pacific Ocean has risen by about 8 inches since the 1880s. State scientists project an additional rise of over a foot by 2050, and in worst-case scenarios, up to 6 feet or more by the end of the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnard said that for every couple of inches of sea level rise, the risk of coastal flooding doubles. And with up to a foot of this temporary rise, “the probability of flooding goes up exponentially.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve built up so much of our communities right in this razor-thin margin of the sea, and so when all of a sudden you raise that base level by 6 to 12 inches, you’re really putting a lot of assets in harm’s way,” Barnard said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When it comes to potential storms this winter, Barnard said the effects of human-caused climate change are pushing the jet stream closer to the poles, which means the effects of El Niño, primarily intensified storms, could shift north to the Bay Area rather than focusing on Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The biggest El Niño impacts are moving more to the north than they did 50 years ago,” Barnard said. “We’re just looking at a different climate as a starting point when the onset of El Niño conditions hit us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>AccuWeather’s Roys said that at this point, it’s “very difficult” to know exactly how intense this winter’s storms will be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12081188\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12081188\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/04/19thAveSFGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/04/19thAveSFGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/04/19thAveSFGetty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/04/19thAveSFGetty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pedestrian crosses a rain-soaked 19th Avenue amidst the ongoing winter storm in San Francisco on Feb. 17, 2026. \u003ccite>(Stephen Lam/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“It won’t change the number [of storms] that occur, but the intensity is likely to vary towards the higher side,” Roys said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Roys said El Niño could shorten the wildfire season this winter, if the rains truly show up in force across the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the ground is more saturated, things don’t dry out, and when things don’t necessarily dry out, it doesn’t become fuel and fire won’t spread as fast,” Roys said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Roys also noted that El Niño isn’t the only global weather factor altering weather patterns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s kind of like when you’re cooking, one ingredient can overpower another one,” Roys said. “What we’re still figuring out for the fall and for the winter is how that’s all going to play out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cb>Here are the morning’s top stories on Monday, June 8, 2026\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">California scientists are nervous about the fate of sea life, which \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">could face a double whammy of warming water later this year.\u003c/a> Coastal waters have already warmed during an ongoing marine heat wave and could warm further if a potential super El Niño materializes. \u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">It’s been nearly a week since California’s primary election and a handful of races remain too close to call. That includes in Los Angeles where the latest vote count on Sunday shows Democrat \u003ca href=\"https://laist.com/news/politics/la-mayor-race-second-place-raman-pratt-bass-runoff\">Nithya Raman overtaking Republican Spencer Pratt\u003c/a> for second place in the LA Mayor’s race.\u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Hundreds of residents of Orange Cove in rural, eastern Fresno County are \u003ca href=\"https://www.kvpr.org/local-news/2026-06-05/rural-fresno-county-residents-push-back-against-pilot-climate-program-ahead-of-june-decision\">speaking out against a clean energy trial\u003c/a> that city leaders agreed to. \u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2 class=\"routes-Site-routes-Post-Title-__Title__title\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">\u003cstrong>Scientists worry El Niño could supercharge marine heat wave roiling coastal California\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>It’s the seventh marine heat wave off California’s coast in the last seven years and this year, it could be amplified by a developing \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12083376/an-incoming-super-el-nino-may-bring-california-a-wet-hot-winter\">super El Niño\u003c/a>, which has the potential to raise sea surface temperatures even higher. This combined influence could disrupt ecosystems, harm or kill local marine life and attract other species north.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With El Niño, the fear is that the kelp that persisted [past the marine heat wave] may now decline, and recovering kelp may not get a chance to get back to what they were before,” said Dr. Anita Giraldo Ospina, principal investigator of coastal ecosystems at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12059734/monterey-bay-aquarium-revives-30-year-old-otter-tee-worn-by-taylor-swift\">Monterey Bay Aquarium\u003c/a>. She’s part of ongoing research projects into how kelp species are repopulating the area. She collects kelp spores and tiny baby urchin from glass slides and rectangular broom heads anchored to the seafloor and stores them in plastic bags.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Baby kelp need cold, nutrient rich water to mature into tall, strong adult stipes. Giraldo Ospina worries that a massive, ongoing \u003ca href=\"https://omny.fm/shows/kqed-segmented-audio/a-heat-wave-in-the-pacific-ocean-is-killing-birds-on-cas-coast\">marine heat wave\u003c/a>, which has already raised coastal waters \u003ca href=\"https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/west-coast-waters-experiencing-another-large-marine-heatwave\">by 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit\u003c/a>, could disrupt efforts to regrow kelp forests vital to the Monterey Bay ecosystem, depending on how warm it becomes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But kelp isn’t the only species being impacted. Even a few degrees of warming can set an ecosystem out of whack and lead to the die-off of almost entire populations. As of May 20, the International Bird Rescue in Fairfield has treated \u003ca href=\"https://www.birdrescue.org/2026-california-starvation-event/\">288 starving birds\u003c/a>, including brown pelicans, cormorants and common murres. “They are the same birds people are reporting finding dead on beaches, especially in Southern California, but now in Northern California as well,” said JD Bergeron, the group’s CEO.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bergeron said one theory is that small schooling fish — favorite food for shore birds — are seeking colder water deeper in the ocean, beyond the birds’ reach. So they do not have enough food to eat. “We have had very regular concerns with brown pelican starvation events, but this one does feel a little bit different,” Bergeron said. “We’re seeing a lot more dead birds than living ones being found.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The current ocean warming \u003ca href=\"https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/regions/california-current/california-current-marine-heatwave-tracker-blobtracker\">began last May\u003c/a> near Eastern Asia and spread across the Pacific. Some waters have had little break since mid-2025, with more than 200 days of elevated temperatures, according to researchers with Climate Central, who said \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/severe-marine-heatwave-climate-change-California-Mexico\">human-caused climate change has significantly intensified the marine heat wave\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Up to 45% of the ocean impacted “is experiencing conditions that are at least six times more likely due to human-caused warming,” Climate Central said. Without climate change, they wrote, the heat wave’s footprint would be 36% smaller.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An El Niño event can weaken winds and slow the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water, which could further intensify the marine heat wave. Without that strong mixing, warm water lingers at the surface, causing temperatures to spike. “All the ingredients are there for a strong El Niño,” said Tom Di Liberto, media director and climate scientist with Climate Central. “If you’re making cookies, you’ve already mixed the dough, but haven’t baked them yet. We still have to wait to see if, in the summer months, these cookies get put in the oven to see if we have that strong El Niño form.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca href=\"https://laist.com/news/politics/la-mayor-race-second-place-raman-pratt-bass-runoff\">\u003cstrong>Raman takes slight lead over Pratt for second place in LA Mayor’s race\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Los Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman gained enough votes by Sunday evening to edge out reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, putting her in second-place for now in the closely-watched race.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The L.A. City Council member and the reality star are separated by about 3,100 votes in the race for a runoff spot against incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in November. Votes are still being counted, and the L.A. County Registrar of Voters will receive ballots postmarked by Election Day up until seven days later.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On election night, Pratt had collected enough votes to put him squarely in the second spot, with a significant lead over Raman. But by late Friday, Raman had gone from just over 20% of the vote on election night to about 25%. Meanwhile, Pratt lost a couple of percentage points since Tuesday night’s early returns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose company tracks ballot return data, said Republicans were reflected heavily in the early returns, but as the vote counts continues, more Democrats will be represented.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>L.A. County election officials said they \u003ca class=\"Link\" href=\"https://content.lavote.gov/docs/rrcc/documents/canvass-update-schedule-06022026-5-29-update.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-cms-ai=\"0\">\u003cu>plan to release\u003c/u>\u003c/a> new vote count results every day until June 12, and regular updates until June 26. The county’s final official results must be certified by July 2.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2 class=\"ArtP-headline\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.kvpr.org/local-news/2026-06-05/rural-fresno-county-residents-push-back-against-pilot-climate-program-ahead-of-june-decision\">\u003cstrong>Rural Fresno County residents push back against pilot climate program ahead of June decision\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In rural eastern Fresno County, a growing number of Orange Cove residents are speaking out after they say they were volunteered for a controversial clean-energy trial without their consent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More than 650 of them — nearly 20% of the electorate — signed a petition presented to the city council April 22 that voiced their opposition to the city’s participation in a short-term hydrogen blending project planned by the Southern California Gas Co.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During public comment at the council meeting, several members of the citizen’s group Orange Cove United urged city leaders to hear their concerns regarding the potentially detrimental health and safety impacts associated with a demonstration project that would change the chemical composition of the natural gas piped to the stoves, furnaces and water heaters in their homes. “I’m asking you to withdraw your support, please,” Orange Cove resident Estela Juarez implored council members during the meeting. “Please listen to us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2022 SoCalGas, along with three other of the state’s investor-owned utility companies, petitioned the California Public Utilities Commission to begin blending hydrogen with natural gas into the existing gas infrastructure of select municipalities as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Because hydrogen releases only water and heat when burned, it is considered a “clean” fuel. That’s opposed to natural gas, which is primarily made up of methane, a hydrocarbon that contributes to climate pollution by emitting carbon dioxide when burned.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In February 2024, SoCalGas announced it had chosen the isolated farm town of Orange Cove in eastern Fresno County as the site for one of its demonstration projects. One month later, without informing residents, the city council unanimously passed a resolution directing city staff to work with the utility company on its development. Plans call for SoCalGas to construct a hydrogen blending facility on an open parcel of land adjacent to the Orange Cove High School football field for the purpose of injecting natural gas with up to 5% hydrogen gas and delivering it to the city’s utility customers. The $85 million project would be funded by ratepayers. At the conclusion of the 18-month trial, the city would return to 100% natural gas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hydrogen blending is not a new concept. Mixing hydrogen with natural gas — up to 20% hydrogen in some places — is already occurring or being tested in roughly a dozen states and several foreign countries. However, despite both observed and theoretical benefits, the practice has not been universally hailed as a climate change solution due to several potential drawbacks. For residential gas consumers, the most worrisome are needless threats to health and safety while at home in their supposed safe space. Researchers at the University of York in Great Britain, where hydrogen blending has been in use since the 2010s, have shown that hydrogen-blended natural gas can increase methane emissions that can exacerbate asthma and have also been linked to other respiratory illnesses — especially when used in older appliances.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "A widespread marine heat wave and brewing El Niño could further threaten California's marine ecosystems.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cb>Here are the morning’s top stories on Monday, June 8, 2026\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">California scientists are nervous about the fate of sea life, which \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">could face a double whammy of warming water later this year.\u003c/a> Coastal waters have already warmed during an ongoing marine heat wave and could warm further if a potential super El Niño materializes. \u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">It’s been nearly a week since California’s primary election and a handful of races remain too close to call. That includes in Los Angeles where the latest vote count on Sunday shows Democrat \u003ca href=\"https://laist.com/news/politics/la-mayor-race-second-place-raman-pratt-bass-runoff\">Nithya Raman overtaking Republican Spencer Pratt\u003c/a> for second place in the LA Mayor’s race.\u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Hundreds of residents of Orange Cove in rural, eastern Fresno County are \u003ca href=\"https://www.kvpr.org/local-news/2026-06-05/rural-fresno-county-residents-push-back-against-pilot-climate-program-ahead-of-june-decision\">speaking out against a clean energy trial\u003c/a> that city leaders agreed to. \u003c/span>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2 class=\"routes-Site-routes-Post-Title-__Title__title\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">\u003cstrong>Scientists worry El Niño could supercharge marine heat wave roiling coastal California\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>It’s the seventh marine heat wave off California’s coast in the last seven years and this year, it could be amplified by a developing \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12083376/an-incoming-super-el-nino-may-bring-california-a-wet-hot-winter\">super El Niño\u003c/a>, which has the potential to raise sea surface temperatures even higher. This combined influence could disrupt ecosystems, harm or kill local marine life and attract other species north.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With El Niño, the fear is that the kelp that persisted [past the marine heat wave] may now decline, and recovering kelp may not get a chance to get back to what they were before,” said Dr. Anita Giraldo Ospina, principal investigator of coastal ecosystems at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12059734/monterey-bay-aquarium-revives-30-year-old-otter-tee-worn-by-taylor-swift\">Monterey Bay Aquarium\u003c/a>. She’s part of ongoing research projects into how kelp species are repopulating the area. She collects kelp spores and tiny baby urchin from glass slides and rectangular broom heads anchored to the seafloor and stores them in plastic bags.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Baby kelp need cold, nutrient rich water to mature into tall, strong adult stipes. Giraldo Ospina worries that a massive, ongoing \u003ca href=\"https://omny.fm/shows/kqed-segmented-audio/a-heat-wave-in-the-pacific-ocean-is-killing-birds-on-cas-coast\">marine heat wave\u003c/a>, which has already raised coastal waters \u003ca href=\"https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/west-coast-waters-experiencing-another-large-marine-heatwave\">by 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit\u003c/a>, could disrupt efforts to regrow kelp forests vital to the Monterey Bay ecosystem, depending on how warm it becomes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But kelp isn’t the only species being impacted. Even a few degrees of warming can set an ecosystem out of whack and lead to the die-off of almost entire populations. As of May 20, the International Bird Rescue in Fairfield has treated \u003ca href=\"https://www.birdrescue.org/2026-california-starvation-event/\">288 starving birds\u003c/a>, including brown pelicans, cormorants and common murres. “They are the same birds people are reporting finding dead on beaches, especially in Southern California, but now in Northern California as well,” said JD Bergeron, the group’s CEO.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bergeron said one theory is that small schooling fish — favorite food for shore birds — are seeking colder water deeper in the ocean, beyond the birds’ reach. So they do not have enough food to eat. “We have had very regular concerns with brown pelican starvation events, but this one does feel a little bit different,” Bergeron said. “We’re seeing a lot more dead birds than living ones being found.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The current ocean warming \u003ca href=\"https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/regions/california-current/california-current-marine-heatwave-tracker-blobtracker\">began last May\u003c/a> near Eastern Asia and spread across the Pacific. Some waters have had little break since mid-2025, with more than 200 days of elevated temperatures, according to researchers with Climate Central, who said \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/severe-marine-heatwave-climate-change-California-Mexico\">human-caused climate change has significantly intensified the marine heat wave\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Up to 45% of the ocean impacted “is experiencing conditions that are at least six times more likely due to human-caused warming,” Climate Central said. Without climate change, they wrote, the heat wave’s footprint would be 36% smaller.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An El Niño event can weaken winds and slow the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water, which could further intensify the marine heat wave. Without that strong mixing, warm water lingers at the surface, causing temperatures to spike. “All the ingredients are there for a strong El Niño,” said Tom Di Liberto, media director and climate scientist with Climate Central. “If you’re making cookies, you’ve already mixed the dough, but haven’t baked them yet. We still have to wait to see if, in the summer months, these cookies get put in the oven to see if we have that strong El Niño form.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca href=\"https://laist.com/news/politics/la-mayor-race-second-place-raman-pratt-bass-runoff\">\u003cstrong>Raman takes slight lead over Pratt for second place in LA Mayor’s race\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Los Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman gained enough votes by Sunday evening to edge out reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, putting her in second-place for now in the closely-watched race.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The L.A. City Council member and the reality star are separated by about 3,100 votes in the race for a runoff spot against incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in November. Votes are still being counted, and the L.A. County Registrar of Voters will receive ballots postmarked by Election Day up until seven days later.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On election night, Pratt had collected enough votes to put him squarely in the second spot, with a significant lead over Raman. But by late Friday, Raman had gone from just over 20% of the vote on election night to about 25%. Meanwhile, Pratt lost a couple of percentage points since Tuesday night’s early returns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose company tracks ballot return data, said Republicans were reflected heavily in the early returns, but as the vote counts continues, more Democrats will be represented.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>L.A. County election officials said they \u003ca class=\"Link\" href=\"https://content.lavote.gov/docs/rrcc/documents/canvass-update-schedule-06022026-5-29-update.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-cms-ai=\"0\">\u003cu>plan to release\u003c/u>\u003c/a> new vote count results every day until June 12, and regular updates until June 26. The county’s final official results must be certified by July 2.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2 class=\"ArtP-headline\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.kvpr.org/local-news/2026-06-05/rural-fresno-county-residents-push-back-against-pilot-climate-program-ahead-of-june-decision\">\u003cstrong>Rural Fresno County residents push back against pilot climate program ahead of June decision\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In rural eastern Fresno County, a growing number of Orange Cove residents are speaking out after they say they were volunteered for a controversial clean-energy trial without their consent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More than 650 of them — nearly 20% of the electorate — signed a petition presented to the city council April 22 that voiced their opposition to the city’s participation in a short-term hydrogen blending project planned by the Southern California Gas Co.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During public comment at the council meeting, several members of the citizen’s group Orange Cove United urged city leaders to hear their concerns regarding the potentially detrimental health and safety impacts associated with a demonstration project that would change the chemical composition of the natural gas piped to the stoves, furnaces and water heaters in their homes. “I’m asking you to withdraw your support, please,” Orange Cove resident Estela Juarez implored council members during the meeting. “Please listen to us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2022 SoCalGas, along with three other of the state’s investor-owned utility companies, petitioned the California Public Utilities Commission to begin blending hydrogen with natural gas into the existing gas infrastructure of select municipalities as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Because hydrogen releases only water and heat when burned, it is considered a “clean” fuel. That’s opposed to natural gas, which is primarily made up of methane, a hydrocarbon that contributes to climate pollution by emitting carbon dioxide when burned.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In February 2024, SoCalGas announced it had chosen the isolated farm town of Orange Cove in eastern Fresno County as the site for one of its demonstration projects. One month later, without informing residents, the city council unanimously passed a resolution directing city staff to work with the utility company on its development. Plans call for SoCalGas to construct a hydrogen blending facility on an open parcel of land adjacent to the Orange Cove High School football field for the purpose of injecting natural gas with up to 5% hydrogen gas and delivering it to the city’s utility customers. The $85 million project would be funded by ratepayers. At the conclusion of the 18-month trial, the city would return to 100% natural gas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hydrogen blending is not a new concept. Mixing hydrogen with natural gas — up to 20% hydrogen in some places — is already occurring or being tested in roughly a dozen states and several foreign countries. However, despite both observed and theoretical benefits, the practice has not been universally hailed as a climate change solution due to several potential drawbacks. For residential gas consumers, the most worrisome are needless threats to health and safety while at home in their supposed safe space. Researchers at the University of York in Great Britain, where hydrogen blending has been in use since the 2010s, have shown that hydrogen-blended natural gas can increase methane emissions that can exacerbate asthma and have also been linked to other respiratory illnesses — especially when used in older appliances.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "an-incoming-super-el-nino-may-bring-california-a-wet-hot-winter",
"title": "An Incoming ‘Super El Niño’ May Bring California a Wet, Hot Winter",
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"content": "\u003cp>Scientists predict that an upcoming \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101913837/a-monster-el-nino-is-brewing-in-the-pacific\">“Super El Niño”\u003c/a> will make 2026 to 2027 the hottest years on record and bring significant sea level rise to the Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An update on Thursday from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said that El Niño is likely to emerge as soon as May and persist through the end of winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While El Niño, a warming of the ocean, and La Niña, a cooling of the ocean, are natural patterns that come and go every 2 to 7 years, this year’s El Niño could be one of the strongest on record — and may give Bay Area residents a preview of what life on the coast will be like in just a decade or two if global warming continues at its current pace.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the term “Super El Niño” is just a colloquial way to describe a “more extreme than merely strong” climate pattern.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Super El Niño is not something magical, it’s not something new, that’s never happened before,” Swain said this week during his live-streamed “office-hours” series.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain said El Niños in 1982, 1997, and 2015 each resulted in “very different global effects” — ranging from record rainfall, which caused some \u003ca href=\"https://www.whoi.edu/science/b/people/kamaral/1982-1983ElNino.html\">Peruvian\u003c/a> rivers to carry 1,000 times their normal flow in 1983, to severe drought in \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2015-state-climate-el-ni%C3%B1o-came-saw-and-conquered\">Ethiopia\u003c/a> in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_10898113\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-10898113 size-full\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino.jpg\" alt=\"A downed tree in Oakland after last weekend's El Niño-fueled storms.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1224\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino-400x255.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino-800x510.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino-1180x752.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino-960x612.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A downed tree in Oakland after El Niño-fueled storms in 2016. Scientists warned the climate pattern could be the strongest on record, and result in a temporary sea level rise of around 6 inches in California. \u003ccite>(Andrea Kissack/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This year’s “Super El Niño,” Swain said, will result in a temporary sea level rise of around 6 inches in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You have to add that number to climate change-caused sea level rise, which — depending on where you are in California — ranges from about 6 inches to a foot over the past century,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Beyond sustained sea level rise, scientists expect major storms and flooding starting this winter. They predict that these storms will be particularly strong as the effects of El Niño compound with the effects of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bay Area residents should expect “significant implications for coastal flooding [and] for wind and surf damage along the coast,” Swain said, pointing to the large \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12019798/repair-work-left-santa-cruz-wharf-vulnerable-to-collapse-a-rebuild-is-uncertain\">wave events in Santa Cruz \u003c/a>and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">king tide flooding in Marin\u003c/a> last year as examples of what may be in store.[aside postID=news_12069118 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/01/MarinCountyFloodingAP3.jpg']On KQED’s Forum on Thursday, science writer David Wallace-Wells and climate activist Bill McKibben compared this El Niño to a particularly deadly event in 1877. The main difference between then and now?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People in the 1870s had no idea what was happening to them, whereas in this case, scientists from across the planet have given us timely warning that we should be using to prepare for what’s ahead,” McKibben said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This preparedness, however, will likely be impacted by federal cuts to science and weather programs, he warned: “We’re not doing a great job of heeding the wonderful warning that science has been able to provide us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco’s Department of Emergency Management said that the possibility of a strong El Niño is part of the city’s preparedness planning. In the coastal city, El Niño can mean a higher potential for heavy rain, localized flooding, and storm-related disruptions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our focus is on coordinating closely with partner agencies, preparing our response systems, and encouraging the public to take preparedness steps before severe weather arrives,” a spokesperson said in a statement on Thursday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McKibben reminded listeners that winter is coming: “Don’t let your insurance lapse this year,” he said. “We’re headed into a very, very interesting season, I’m afraid.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Scientists predict that an upcoming \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101913837/a-monster-el-nino-is-brewing-in-the-pacific\">“Super El Niño”\u003c/a> will make 2026 to 2027 the hottest years on record and bring significant sea level rise to the Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An update on Thursday from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said that El Niño is likely to emerge as soon as May and persist through the end of winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While El Niño, a warming of the ocean, and La Niña, a cooling of the ocean, are natural patterns that come and go every 2 to 7 years, this year’s El Niño could be one of the strongest on record — and may give Bay Area residents a preview of what life on the coast will be like in just a decade or two if global warming continues at its current pace.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the term “Super El Niño” is just a colloquial way to describe a “more extreme than merely strong” climate pattern.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Super El Niño is not something magical, it’s not something new, that’s never happened before,” Swain said this week during his live-streamed “office-hours” series.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain said El Niños in 1982, 1997, and 2015 each resulted in “very different global effects” — ranging from record rainfall, which caused some \u003ca href=\"https://www.whoi.edu/science/b/people/kamaral/1982-1983ElNino.html\">Peruvian\u003c/a> rivers to carry 1,000 times their normal flow in 1983, to severe drought in \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2015-state-climate-el-ni%C3%B1o-came-saw-and-conquered\">Ethiopia\u003c/a> in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_10898113\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-10898113 size-full\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino.jpg\" alt=\"A downed tree in Oakland after last weekend's El Niño-fueled storms.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1224\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino-400x255.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino-800x510.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino-1180x752.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/ElNino-960x612.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A downed tree in Oakland after El Niño-fueled storms in 2016. Scientists warned the climate pattern could be the strongest on record, and result in a temporary sea level rise of around 6 inches in California. \u003ccite>(Andrea Kissack/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This year’s “Super El Niño,” Swain said, will result in a temporary sea level rise of around 6 inches in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You have to add that number to climate change-caused sea level rise, which — depending on where you are in California — ranges from about 6 inches to a foot over the past century,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Beyond sustained sea level rise, scientists expect major storms and flooding starting this winter. They predict that these storms will be particularly strong as the effects of El Niño compound with the effects of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bay Area residents should expect “significant implications for coastal flooding [and] for wind and surf damage along the coast,” Swain said, pointing to the large \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12019798/repair-work-left-santa-cruz-wharf-vulnerable-to-collapse-a-rebuild-is-uncertain\">wave events in Santa Cruz \u003c/a>and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">king tide flooding in Marin\u003c/a> last year as examples of what may be in store.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>On KQED’s Forum on Thursday, science writer David Wallace-Wells and climate activist Bill McKibben compared this El Niño to a particularly deadly event in 1877. The main difference between then and now?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People in the 1870s had no idea what was happening to them, whereas in this case, scientists from across the planet have given us timely warning that we should be using to prepare for what’s ahead,” McKibben said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This preparedness, however, will likely be impacted by federal cuts to science and weather programs, he warned: “We’re not doing a great job of heeding the wonderful warning that science has been able to provide us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco’s Department of Emergency Management said that the possibility of a strong El Niño is part of the city’s preparedness planning. In the coastal city, El Niño can mean a higher potential for heavy rain, localized flooding, and storm-related disruptions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our focus is on coordinating closely with partner agencies, preparing our response systems, and encouraging the public to take preparedness steps before severe weather arrives,” a spokesperson said in a statement on Thursday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McKibben reminded listeners that winter is coming: “Don’t let your insurance lapse this year,” he said. “We’re headed into a very, very interesting season, I’m afraid.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "California's Reservoirs Are Full, but the Water Forecast Is Murky",
"headTitle": "California’s Reservoirs Are Full, but the Water Forecast Is Murky | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>As forecasts tease California with rainstorms this week, the state’s reservoirs are already flush with water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a big departure from a year ago: The state’s major reservoirs — which store water collected mostly from rivers in the northern portion of the state — are in good shape, with levels at \u003ca href=\"https://cww.water.ca.gov/\">124% of average\u003c/a>. In late 2022, \u003ca href=\"https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151422/california-reservoir-rebound\">bathtub rings of dry earth\u003c/a> lined lakes that had collectively dipped to about two-thirds of average — until heavy winter storms in January filled many of them almost to the brim.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet healthy water levels don’t mean California’s reservoirs are full. Most of California’s large reservoirs are operated for flood control as well as water storage, with space kept empty to rein in winter storm runoff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wet season has arrived in California, with El Niño conditions \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/archives/32554\">projected to continue strengthening\u003c/a>. But for the Golden State, with its unpredictable swings from dry to wet and back again, El Niño doesn’t guarantee heavy rainfall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And as California’s water managers plan for the water year ahead, they’re faced, as always, with their dueling responsibilities: forestalling floods while preparing for possible scarcity in a state where water supplies are often stretched thin and long droughts are common.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When state climatologist Michael Anderson looks into California’s water year ahead, he says the crystal ball is cloudy.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2 id=\"h-a-murky-forecast-both-near-and-far\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">A murky forecast, both near and far\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Threats of a major storm dissolved into showers in parts of California this week, with \u003ca href=\"https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd\">another surge of rainfall expected to wrap up this weekend\u003c/a>. Rainfall is only expected to reach 1 to 2 inches statewide through Saturday morning, with light snowfall predicted in the Sierra Nevada mountains at higher elevations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Overall this is looking to be a beneficial rainfall event for Southern California, which is definitely welcome during the typical peak of our fire season,” the National Weather Service office for San Diego reported earlier this week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote align=\"right\" size=\"medium\" citation=\"Marty Ralph, director, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego\"]‘It’s like you’re playing poker, and you’ve got a good hand — that’s El Niño for us. But we haven’t finished the round of the game, and we still have to draw a couple cards. But we might not draw the good cards.’[/pullquote]Some headlines heralded it as the first storm of many as El Niño continues to strengthen and intensify. Characterized \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/understanding-el-nino\">by warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean\u003c/a>, El Niño is \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html\">often expected to bring wetter weather\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But in California, the connection is more tenuous. Of seven El Niño events over the past 23 years, Anderson said, two have been dry, three have been roughly average and two have been wet. One recent study reported that El Niño accounts for only about 25% of the \u003ca href=\"https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/12/BAMS-D-21-0252.1.xml\">year-to-year variability in California’s rain and snowfall during the winter\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What that tells me is anything goes,” Anderson said. “El Niño by itself doesn’t define our water year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, the year is actually off to a drier start: Statewide, California has \u003ca href=\"https://cww.water.ca.gov/\">seen only about 45% of average precipitation\u003c/a> since this water year began Oct. 1.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego, suspects that it’s \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/03/california-storm-reservoirs-flooding/\">atmospheric rivers like the ones that pummeled California last year\u003c/a> that will determine whether El Niño will bring a firehose or a trickle to California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like you’re playing poker, and you’ve got a good hand — that’s El Niño for us. But we haven’t finished the round of the game, and we still have to draw a couple cards,” Ralph said. “But we might not draw the good cards.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2 id=\"h-waste-not-want-not-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Waste not, want not?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>With seasonal outlooks unable to \u003ca href=\"https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/12/BAMS-D-21-0252.1.xml\">reliably say\u003c/a> whether a winter will be wet or dry, water managers must plan for both.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fortunately there’s some wiggle room this year, according to Jeanine Jones, the Department of Water Resources’ interstate resources manager. Last year’s \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/03/california-storm-reservoirs-flooding/\">massive snowpack and abundant rainfall\u003c/a> filled the state’s reservoirs enough that even if this rainy season leans dry, she said, “We’re going into next year with a cushion, which is always good.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside label=\"Related Stories\" postID=\"science_1985131,news_11943212,science_1981943\"]That doesn’t mean the reservoirs are full, though. Lake Oroville — the \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/programs/state-water-project/swp-facilities/oroville\">largest reservoir on the State Water Project\u003c/a>, which sends water south to farms and cities — and Lake Shasta — critical to growers and other water users reliant on the \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/mp/cvp/\">federal Central Valley Project\u003c/a> — are \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain\">at about two-thirds of their total capacity\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because with reservoirs that serve the \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/mp/ncao/slwri/docs/wkshp-pstrs/20140620-shasta-reservoir.pdf\">dual purpose of flood control and water storage\u003c/a>, water managers must \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Programs/State-Water-Project/Oroville-CNA/Files/Meeting-3/PMF_Info_Sheet20190107_ay_19.pdf\">release water to keep space empty\u003c/a> to wrangle possible floods during the wet season, Jones said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The water that flows into rivers and streams and out to the ocean \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/05/sacramento-valley-water-drought/\">is often bemoaned as\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>water wasted\u003c/a>. But waste is in the eye of the beholder, said Jay Lund, vice-director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water that’s ‘wasted’ is always water used by somebody else,” Lund said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The list of benefits for fishing, conservation, Delta farmers, water quality and healthy shorelines \u003ca href=\"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2d10g5vp\">is lengthy\u003c/a>. Water allowed to flow out into the San Francisco Bay, for instance, washes away salts and pollutants, transports sediment and sand necessary to maintain marshes and restore eroding beaches, assists salmon in migrations and helps maintain healthy ecosystems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, the Public Policy Institute of California reports that California \u003ca href=\"https://www.ppic.org/publication/priorities-for-californias-water/\">could have socked away more\u003c/a> water last year, had there been better ways to ferry water from full rivers to groundwater recharge sites, and better coordination among landowners, local agencies, and others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I tend to think that there is room for capturing more surface water … if you could afford the cost of capturing it,” agreed Lund. “That, to me, is the biggest problem.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/02/california-sites-reservoir/\">controversial Sites Reservoir project\u003c/a>, for instance, is projected to cost more than $4.4 billion. The reservoir, planned in the western Sacramento Valley, would store as much as 1.5 million acre-feet of \u003ca href=\"https://www.watereducation.org/aquapedia-background/sites-reservoir\">Sacramento River water\u003c/a>, alarming environmental groups that say drawing more water from the river will imperil its already-struggling fish.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.opr.ca.gov/news/2023/11-06.html\">In early November\u003c/a>, Gov. Gavin Newsom cleared the project to be fast-tracked “to the extent feasible” through any litigation challenging it under the landmark California Environmental Quality Act. That move was \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/06/california-infrastructure-deal/\">made possible with new legislation\u003c/a>. Even so, the project is not expected to be \u003ca href=\"https://cwc.ca.gov/Water-Storage/WSIP-Project-Review-Portal/All-Projects/Sites-Project\">completed before 2030 or 2031\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote align=\"right\" size=\"medium\" citation=\"Jay Lund, vice-director, Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis\"]‘I tend to think that there is room for capturing more surface water … if you could afford the cost of capturing it. That, to me, is the biggest problem.’[/pullquote]In the meantime, researchers like UC San Diego’s Ralph, along with local, state and federal agencies, hope to operate the state’s reservoirs more nimbly by incorporating new weather forecasting tools into decades-old rulebooks governing when to hold onto water and when to release it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The program allowed the Russian River watershed to hold onto about 7,000 to 8,000 acre-feet more water in Lake Mendocino this past year, and an additional 19,000 acre-feet more in Lake Sonoma, according to Donald Seymour, deputy director of engineering with Sonoma Water. The Department of Water Resources announced that it is expanding \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/News/Blog/2023/Jan-23/Californias-Forecast-Informed-Reservoir-Operations-Are-Key-to-Managing-Floods-and-Water-Supplies\">the effort to two major reservoirs, Lake Oroville and New Bullards Bar\u003c/a>, as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many are looking down rather than up for opportunities to store more water. The Department of Water Resources estimates that \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/News/Blog/2023/July-23/DWR-Captures-and-Stores-Water-from-Record-Breaking-Snowpack\">about 3.8 million acre-feet of water\u003c/a> was captured through groundwater recharge by last summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Southern California water import giant, the Metropolitan Water District, also recently announced a $211 million groundwater bank in the Antelope Valley. The bank can store \u003ca href=\"https://www.mwdh2o.com/press-releases/new-regional-water-bank-improves-water-supply-reliability-for-millions/\">280,000 acre-feet of water\u003c/a>, enough to fill Castaic Lake, \u003ca href=\"https://www.castaiclake.com/\">the largest State Water Project reservoir in Southern California\u003c/a>. Though construction to allow withdrawals hasn’t been completed yet, the bank stands ready to accept deposits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bank is aimed at providing a little more net for the tightrope walk that California’s water managers start anew every water year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We always plan for it to be potentially very dry, or very wet,” said Brad Coffey, Metropolitan’s water resources manager. “No matter what kind of year we had this year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Unlike a year ago, water storage is above average. Whether the year is wet or dry, though, remains uncertain despite El Niño conditions.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>As forecasts tease California with rainstorms this week, the state’s reservoirs are already flush with water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a big departure from a year ago: The state’s major reservoirs — which store water collected mostly from rivers in the northern portion of the state — are in good shape, with levels at \u003ca href=\"https://cww.water.ca.gov/\">124% of average\u003c/a>. In late 2022, \u003ca href=\"https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151422/california-reservoir-rebound\">bathtub rings of dry earth\u003c/a> lined lakes that had collectively dipped to about two-thirds of average — until heavy winter storms in January filled many of them almost to the brim.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet healthy water levels don’t mean California’s reservoirs are full. Most of California’s large reservoirs are operated for flood control as well as water storage, with space kept empty to rein in winter storm runoff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wet season has arrived in California, with El Niño conditions \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/archives/32554\">projected to continue strengthening\u003c/a>. But for the Golden State, with its unpredictable swings from dry to wet and back again, El Niño doesn’t guarantee heavy rainfall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And as California’s water managers plan for the water year ahead, they’re faced, as always, with their dueling responsibilities: forestalling floods while preparing for possible scarcity in a state where water supplies are often stretched thin and long droughts are common.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When state climatologist Michael Anderson looks into California’s water year ahead, he says the crystal ball is cloudy.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2 id=\"h-a-murky-forecast-both-near-and-far\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">A murky forecast, both near and far\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Threats of a major storm dissolved into showers in parts of California this week, with \u003ca href=\"https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd\">another surge of rainfall expected to wrap up this weekend\u003c/a>. Rainfall is only expected to reach 1 to 2 inches statewide through Saturday morning, with light snowfall predicted in the Sierra Nevada mountains at higher elevations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Overall this is looking to be a beneficial rainfall event for Southern California, which is definitely welcome during the typical peak of our fire season,” the National Weather Service office for San Diego reported earlier this week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "‘It’s like you’re playing poker, and you’ve got a good hand — that’s El Niño for us. But we haven’t finished the round of the game, and we still have to draw a couple cards. But we might not draw the good cards.’",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Some headlines heralded it as the first storm of many as El Niño continues to strengthen and intensify. Characterized \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/understanding-el-nino\">by warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean\u003c/a>, El Niño is \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html\">often expected to bring wetter weather\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But in California, the connection is more tenuous. Of seven El Niño events over the past 23 years, Anderson said, two have been dry, three have been roughly average and two have been wet. One recent study reported that El Niño accounts for only about 25% of the \u003ca href=\"https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/12/BAMS-D-21-0252.1.xml\">year-to-year variability in California’s rain and snowfall during the winter\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What that tells me is anything goes,” Anderson said. “El Niño by itself doesn’t define our water year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, the year is actually off to a drier start: Statewide, California has \u003ca href=\"https://cww.water.ca.gov/\">seen only about 45% of average precipitation\u003c/a> since this water year began Oct. 1.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego, suspects that it’s \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/03/california-storm-reservoirs-flooding/\">atmospheric rivers like the ones that pummeled California last year\u003c/a> that will determine whether El Niño will bring a firehose or a trickle to California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like you’re playing poker, and you’ve got a good hand — that’s El Niño for us. But we haven’t finished the round of the game, and we still have to draw a couple cards,” Ralph said. “But we might not draw the good cards.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2 id=\"h-waste-not-want-not-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Waste not, want not?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>With seasonal outlooks unable to \u003ca href=\"https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/12/BAMS-D-21-0252.1.xml\">reliably say\u003c/a> whether a winter will be wet or dry, water managers must plan for both.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fortunately there’s some wiggle room this year, according to Jeanine Jones, the Department of Water Resources’ interstate resources manager. Last year’s \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/03/california-storm-reservoirs-flooding/\">massive snowpack and abundant rainfall\u003c/a> filled the state’s reservoirs enough that even if this rainy season leans dry, she said, “We’re going into next year with a cushion, which is always good.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>That doesn’t mean the reservoirs are full, though. Lake Oroville — the \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/programs/state-water-project/swp-facilities/oroville\">largest reservoir on the State Water Project\u003c/a>, which sends water south to farms and cities — and Lake Shasta — critical to growers and other water users reliant on the \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/mp/cvp/\">federal Central Valley Project\u003c/a> — are \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain\">at about two-thirds of their total capacity\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because with reservoirs that serve the \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/mp/ncao/slwri/docs/wkshp-pstrs/20140620-shasta-reservoir.pdf\">dual purpose of flood control and water storage\u003c/a>, water managers must \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Programs/State-Water-Project/Oroville-CNA/Files/Meeting-3/PMF_Info_Sheet20190107_ay_19.pdf\">release water to keep space empty\u003c/a> to wrangle possible floods during the wet season, Jones said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The water that flows into rivers and streams and out to the ocean \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/05/sacramento-valley-water-drought/\">is often bemoaned as\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>water wasted\u003c/a>. But waste is in the eye of the beholder, said Jay Lund, vice-director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water that’s ‘wasted’ is always water used by somebody else,” Lund said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The list of benefits for fishing, conservation, Delta farmers, water quality and healthy shorelines \u003ca href=\"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2d10g5vp\">is lengthy\u003c/a>. Water allowed to flow out into the San Francisco Bay, for instance, washes away salts and pollutants, transports sediment and sand necessary to maintain marshes and restore eroding beaches, assists salmon in migrations and helps maintain healthy ecosystems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, the Public Policy Institute of California reports that California \u003ca href=\"https://www.ppic.org/publication/priorities-for-californias-water/\">could have socked away more\u003c/a> water last year, had there been better ways to ferry water from full rivers to groundwater recharge sites, and better coordination among landowners, local agencies, and others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I tend to think that there is room for capturing more surface water … if you could afford the cost of capturing it,” agreed Lund. “That, to me, is the biggest problem.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/02/california-sites-reservoir/\">controversial Sites Reservoir project\u003c/a>, for instance, is projected to cost more than $4.4 billion. The reservoir, planned in the western Sacramento Valley, would store as much as 1.5 million acre-feet of \u003ca href=\"https://www.watereducation.org/aquapedia-background/sites-reservoir\">Sacramento River water\u003c/a>, alarming environmental groups that say drawing more water from the river will imperil its already-struggling fish.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.opr.ca.gov/news/2023/11-06.html\">In early November\u003c/a>, Gov. Gavin Newsom cleared the project to be fast-tracked “to the extent feasible” through any litigation challenging it under the landmark California Environmental Quality Act. That move was \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/06/california-infrastructure-deal/\">made possible with new legislation\u003c/a>. Even so, the project is not expected to be \u003ca href=\"https://cwc.ca.gov/Water-Storage/WSIP-Project-Review-Portal/All-Projects/Sites-Project\">completed before 2030 or 2031\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>In the meantime, researchers like UC San Diego’s Ralph, along with local, state and federal agencies, hope to operate the state’s reservoirs more nimbly by incorporating new weather forecasting tools into decades-old rulebooks governing when to hold onto water and when to release it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The program allowed the Russian River watershed to hold onto about 7,000 to 8,000 acre-feet more water in Lake Mendocino this past year, and an additional 19,000 acre-feet more in Lake Sonoma, according to Donald Seymour, deputy director of engineering with Sonoma Water. The Department of Water Resources announced that it is expanding \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/News/Blog/2023/Jan-23/Californias-Forecast-Informed-Reservoir-Operations-Are-Key-to-Managing-Floods-and-Water-Supplies\">the effort to two major reservoirs, Lake Oroville and New Bullards Bar\u003c/a>, as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many are looking down rather than up for opportunities to store more water. The Department of Water Resources estimates that \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/News/Blog/2023/July-23/DWR-Captures-and-Stores-Water-from-Record-Breaking-Snowpack\">about 3.8 million acre-feet of water\u003c/a> was captured through groundwater recharge by last summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Southern California water import giant, the Metropolitan Water District, also recently announced a $211 million groundwater bank in the Antelope Valley. The bank can store \u003ca href=\"https://www.mwdh2o.com/press-releases/new-regional-water-bank-improves-water-supply-reliability-for-millions/\">280,000 acre-feet of water\u003c/a>, enough to fill Castaic Lake, \u003ca href=\"https://www.castaiclake.com/\">the largest State Water Project reservoir in Southern California\u003c/a>. Though construction to allow withdrawals hasn’t been completed yet, the bank stands ready to accept deposits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bank is aimed at providing a little more net for the tightrope walk that California’s water managers start anew every water year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We always plan for it to be potentially very dry, or very wet,” said Brad Coffey, Metropolitan’s water resources manager. “No matter what kind of year we had this year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"info": "What kind of no sabo word is Hyphenación? For us, it’s about living within a hyphenation. Like being a third-gen Mexican-American from the Texas border now living that Bay Area Chicano life. Like Xorje! Each week we bring together a couple of hyphenated Latinos to talk all about personal life choices: family, careers, relationships, belonging … everything is on the table. ",
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"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
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"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
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"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
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"tagline": "Politics from a personal perspective",
"info": "Political Breakdown is a new series that explores the political intersection of California and the nation. Each week hosts Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos are joined with a new special guest to unpack politics -- with personality — and offer an insider’s glimpse at how politics happens.",
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"possible": {
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"title": "Possible",
"info": "Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.",
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"pri-the-world": {
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"title": "PRI's The World: Latest Edition",
"info": "Each weekday, host Marco Werman and his team of producers bring you the world's most interesting stories in an hour of radio that reminds us just how small our planet really is.",
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"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-World-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
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},
"radiolab": {
"id": "radiolab",
"title": "Radiolab",
"info": "A two-time Peabody Award-winner, Radiolab is an investigation told through sounds and stories, and centered around one big idea. In the Radiolab world, information sounds like music and science and culture collide. Hosted by Jad Abumrad and Robert Krulwich, the show is designed for listeners who demand skepticism, but appreciate wonder. WNYC Studios is the producer of other leading podcasts including Freakonomics Radio, Death, Sex & Money, On the Media and many more.",
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},
"reveal": {
"id": "reveal",
"title": "Reveal",
"info": "Created by The Center for Investigative Reporting and PRX, Reveal is public radios first one-hour weekly radio show and podcast dedicated to investigative reporting. Credible, fact based and without a partisan agenda, Reveal combines the power and artistry of driveway moment storytelling with data-rich reporting on critically important issues. The result is stories that inform and inspire, arming our listeners with information to right injustices, hold the powerful accountable and improve lives.Reveal is hosted by Al Letson and showcases the award-winning work of CIR and newsrooms large and small across the nation. In a radio and podcast market crowded with choices, Reveal focuses on important and often surprising stories that illuminate the world for our listeners.",
"airtime": "SAT 4pm-5pm",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.revealnews.org/episodes/",
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},
"rightnowish": {
"id": "rightnowish",
"title": "Rightnowish",
"tagline": "Art is where you find it",
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