California Will Get Hammered by Giant Waves This Weekend. Surfers Are Prepping
Peter Mel, a professional surfer and the owner of Freelance Surf Shop in Santa Cruz, spent Tuesday morning fielding calls from big wave surfers around the world.
“The El Niño hype is real,” Mel said. “The ocean is extra alive.”
Mel has been surfing at Mavericks Beach, the world-famous surfing destination on the San Mateo County Coast, for nearly 30 years. And it’s about to get pretty gnarly.
Forecasts show a series of storms within the north Pacific Ocean will send a high swell arriving late Friday into Saturday, according to the National Weather Service. Surf heights are expected to top out around 20 to 30 feet, with locally higher waves at Mavericks.
Meteorologists are warning of dangerous beach conditions, sneaker waves and rip currents that could pull unsuspecting beachgoers offshore.
But some big wave surfers, like Bianca Valenti, are preparing — just in case.
“I’m really excited to see what happens on Saturday because we don’t really know until the day comes,” Valenti said. “It doesn’t get this big very often.”
Valenti could recall the last few times waves at Mavericks reached over 50 feet off the top of her head: in December 2023 and December 2024.
She said that she missed the last big day in 2024, but she surfed in 2023.
Surfers spend their lives learning the nuances of local spots and figuring out exactly where waves will break during different swells and tides. Mel has learned how to read wind charts and watch ocean buoys. But this year’s record-breaking El Niño has made forecasting a little more complicated.
“I’ve heard of Kelvin waves,” Mel said, referring to the invisible energy pulsing in the ocean, released by El Niño. “I never actually had to deal with one. I guess I would have when I was a grom [a young surfer], when the ‘82/83 El Niño hit. There must have been some sort of Kelvin wave, but I don’t remember anyone talking about them.”
Mel said that he noticed that the Kelvin wave has added some extra unpredictability and “sloshiness” to the ocean.
“You’re sitting in this spot and all of a sudden a wave will come out of somewhere different than expected,” Mel said. “And that’s where I feel like the Kelvin wave has added its extra elements.”
Mel said he will check out the waves on Saturday morning and decide whether or not the conditions look right to go out with his team, which now includes one of his sons.
For Bay Area residents who are not trained to surf big waves, Joe Merchant, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, recommends steering clear of the beach this weekend.
“Any wrong move near the water could lead to your death,” Merchant said.