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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22989\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/napaquakepic.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/napaquakepic.jpg\" alt=\"Napa earthquake damage\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22989\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This building at Main and Clinton streets in Napa was damaged in the magnitude 6.0 South Napa earthquake of August 24. The experimental real-time GPS detection system in Berkeley flagged this quake just days after it was activated. (\u003ca href=\"https://www.flickr.com/photos/54485353@N05/\">Julianna Brown\u003c/a>/\u003ca href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/\">CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>GPS, the Global Positioning System, underlies many familiar services like your phone’s location finder and your car’s navigation. Now the industrial-strength version of GPS is leading the way in a new approach to instant earthquake warnings being tested in Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The GPS most of us know about is a static service that works on demand. A GPS receiver in a car, phone or handheld unit monitors a high-precision network of satellites and calculates its current location from their timing signals. A less-known GPS system is a network of receivers at fixed locations that does this constantly each second, or even faster, in real time. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A real-time GPS network is widely used by companies that need to follow the whereabouts of things like telephone poles. Every modern nation has one. Japan’s real-time GPS network has more than a thousand stations. Starting around 15 years ago, scientists imagined using that network to detect earthquakes—not the shaking itself, but the permanent changes in the ground’s vertical and horizontal position. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The giant Tohoku earthquake of 2011 was an important test for that line of research. That quake brought out a major shortcoming of Japan’s existing earthquake early warning system, which relies on seismometers: the quake was too large and complex for the system to handle. The shaking alerts assumed that the quake was no larger than magnitude 8, but in fact at magnitude 9 it had 10 times more ground motion. The quake’s true size was not known for hours, and while the alert system saved many lives by giving warnings of up to 60 seconds, it could have done much better for very large events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Japanese real-time GPS network offered an alternative, independent way to monitor the giant quake as it happened. Studies of the GPS records showed that it could have been used to characterize the earthquake, both more accurately and much faster. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22988\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 372px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Picture1.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Picture1.png\" alt=\"Quake detection by seismo and GPS\" width=\"372\" height=\"268\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22988\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This figure from \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051894/abstract\">a 2012 paper in Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/a> compares the performance of Japan’s existing early-warning system (red line) to a simulated system based on real-time GPS data (black lines). Not only did the GPS setup converge to a more accurate solution, it did it faster. (after Tim Wright/AGU)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Researchers at UC Berkeley have been working for the last few years on a real-time GPS system that can actually function. This year they placed their experimental system into working (operational) status by connecting it to California’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a>—the program that will become \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/09/11/californias-earthquake-early-warning-system-is-ready-to-get-started/\">the foundation of the state’s pioneering early warning system\u003c/a>. Within days, it captured the South Napa earthquake. Although at magnitude 6, that quake wasn’t big enough to make trouble for the seismometer-based network, it was a gratifying test.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s operational real-time GPS algorithm, called G-larmS, was developed by postdoc researcher Ronni Grapenthin (now at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology). He and his coworkers \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JB011400/abstract\">reported details this week in the \u003ci>Journal of Geophysical Research\u003c/i>\u003c/a>. It’s a fast-and-dirty program specifically tuned to the Bay Area’s earthquake faults with a lot of simplifying assumptions. But as tested on simulations of a large Hayward Fault earthquake and on \u003ca href=\"http://www.data.scec.org/research-tools/MayorCucapah20100404/\">real GPS data from the 2012 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake\u003c/a>, it works pretty well so far.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The paper does not include the results from the Napa quake, but Grapenthin’s group has another paper coming out soon covering that event in detail. Meanwhile, you can see \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4jU7UmZnJc&list=UUPuYzA4Q6Voxt4tW1HegmFQ\">Grapenthin’s talk\u003c/a> from last month’s \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/3rd_international_conference/\">Third Earthquake Early Warning Conference\u003c/a> in which he discusses the Napa results. G-larmS, he says, could have sized up the Napa quake accurately in just 14 seconds. If this kind of success can be repeated for a much larger quake of, say, magnitude 7.5, it could make differences in the instant warnings and in the immediate actions of emergency responders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not the only real-time GPS research effort going on in this country. A team at Central Washington University has been working for the last 10 years with real-time GPS at the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array or \u003ca href=\"http://www.panga.org/\">PANGA\u003c/a>. That part of the world is prone to magnitude 9 earthquakes too, and the stakes are high.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s operational real-time GPS algorithm, called G-larmS, was developed by postdoc researcher Ronni Grapenthin (now at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology). He and his coworkers \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JB011400/abstract\">reported details this week in the \u003ci>Journal of Geophysical Research\u003c/i>\u003c/a>. It’s a fast-and-dirty program specifically tuned to the Bay Area’s earthquake faults with a lot of simplifying assumptions. But as tested on simulations of a large Hayward Fault earthquake and on \u003ca href=\"http://www.data.scec.org/research-tools/MayorCucapah20100404/\">real GPS data from the 2012 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake\u003c/a>, it works pretty well so far.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The paper does not include the results from the Napa quake, but Grapenthin’s group has another paper coming out soon covering that event in detail. Meanwhile, you can see \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4jU7UmZnJc&list=UUPuYzA4Q6Voxt4tW1HegmFQ\">Grapenthin’s talk\u003c/a> from last month’s \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/3rd_international_conference/\">Third Earthquake Early Warning Conference\u003c/a> in which he discusses the Napa results. G-larmS, he says, could have sized up the Napa quake accurately in just 14 seconds. If this kind of success can be repeated for a much larger quake of, say, magnitude 7.5, it could make differences in the instant warnings and in the immediate actions of emergency responders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not the only real-time GPS research effort going on in this country. A team at Central Washington University has been working for the last 10 years with real-time GPS at the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array or \u003ca href=\"http://www.panga.org/\">PANGA\u003c/a>. That part of the world is prone to magnitude 9 earthquakes too, and the stakes are high.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"headTitle": "New Paper Outlines Updated Look on San Andreas Fault System | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22601\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/faultcreep.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/faultcreep.jpg\" alt=\"Fault creep\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22601\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fault creep on the Hayward fault has offset this Oakland street curb, along with a fiduciary mark made with a concrete saw. (Andrew Alden photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A new paper in the \u003ci>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\u003c/i> offers an updated look at the state of the Bay Area’s most dangerous earthquake faults. Many news outlets this week went the alarmist route, calling the faults “overdue” to produce damaging quakes. \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/fl/overdue-earthquakes.htm\">I’ve pointed out why scientists take pains never to use that “O-word.”\u003c/a> They can do little more than specify the odds of a particular fault having its next large earthquake. We have no way of saying when that quake will happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are a couple of things that everyone should know about the San Andreas fault system. First, it’s a whole set of earthquake faults that are organized in three main branches. One is the familiar San Andreas fault, which runs past San Francisco up the Pacific coast. The second splits off the San Andreas down around Gilroy and has various names along its crooked course north past the East Bay: Calaveras, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, Maacama, and so on. The third branch splits off the Calaveras fault in Fremont and runs north still further inland under the names Northern Calaveras, Concord, Green Valley, and Bartlett Springs. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Second, the San Andreas fault system does its thing in its own time, at its own speed. The great tectonic plates that drive these faults move past each other at about two inches a year, roughly the speed your fingernails grow. When a new paper comes out, it’s not reporting any change in the fault system itself. It’s documenting progress in our own understanding, giving us a picture of something a little more in focus than we could see before. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In this week’s paper, Jim Lienkaemper of the U.S. Geological Survey and three coauthors summarize a huge number of measurements of fault creep up and down the state. Fault creep is a steady motion that takes place without earthquakes. Scientists have been making these painstaking measurements for decades at dozens of places, as shown in this map from the paper showing the major strands of the San Andreas fault system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22602\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepmap.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepmap.png\" alt=\"Creep map of San Andreas fault system\" width=\"600\" height=\"547\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22602\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map showing the branches of the San Andreas fault system. Branch A is the San Gregorio fault; branch B is the San Andreas fault; branch C is the Southern Calaveras-Hayward branch; branch D is the Northern Calaveras branch. Portion of Figure 2, Lienkaemper et al., “Using Surface Creep Rate to Infer Fraction Locked for Sections of the San Andreas Fault System in Northern California from Alignment Array and GPS Data,” BSSA, December 2014 (BSAA/USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Creep varies a great deal in the San Andreas fault system. The authors used this creep data to estimate how much of the fault is creeping (not gaining strain energy) and how much is locked together, gathering energy for the next big earthquake. The main strand of the San Andreas fault is almost entirely locked, but the other branches creep at different rates in different places. One of the authors’ big achievements is this graph.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22603\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepgraph.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepgraph.png\" alt=\"Fault creep graphs\" width=\"600\" height=\"371\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22603\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Creep observations along the two eastern branches of the San Andreas fault system. From Figure 3 of Lienkaemper et al.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The authors used this data to assess how much energy has been accumulating on the locked portions of each of 21 specific segments of these faults. Combined with the history of earthquakes on these segments—something these scientists have been studying with \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/03/20/digging-up-new-information-on-old-earthquakes/\">trenching studies\u003c/a> for more than 30 years—they concluded that several fault segments have accumulated enough energy to be released in major earthquakes. They are the Rodgers Creek fault (segment C7), northern Calaveras fault (D1 and D2), southern Green Valley fault (D3), and the southern Hayward fault (C3 and C4). They appear to have reached the level of strain energy (seismic moment) that’s released in earthquakes of magnitude 6.8 to 7.1, around 10 times as strong as the recent magnitude-6 South Napa quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These are not predictions of any sort, just statements about the energy buildup according to a cutting-edge analysis, involving many assumptions, of an imperfectly known geological system. There’s no “overdue” involved, only the suggestion that large quakes are a distinct possibility on these fault segments given their history and behavior. When those quakes may happen is still a roll of the dice. Nothing has changed except what we know.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "A new study from our local earthquake experts has put new and clearer numbers on the risk of large earthquakes in the Bay Area's future--evidence of new progress in this slow process of enlightenment.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22601\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/faultcreep.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/faultcreep.jpg\" alt=\"Fault creep\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22601\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fault creep on the Hayward fault has offset this Oakland street curb, along with a fiduciary mark made with a concrete saw. (Andrew Alden photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A new paper in the \u003ci>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\u003c/i> offers an updated look at the state of the Bay Area’s most dangerous earthquake faults. Many news outlets this week went the alarmist route, calling the faults “overdue” to produce damaging quakes. \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/fl/overdue-earthquakes.htm\">I’ve pointed out why scientists take pains never to use that “O-word.”\u003c/a> They can do little more than specify the odds of a particular fault having its next large earthquake. We have no way of saying when that quake will happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are a couple of things that everyone should know about the San Andreas fault system. First, it’s a whole set of earthquake faults that are organized in three main branches. One is the familiar San Andreas fault, which runs past San Francisco up the Pacific coast. The second splits off the San Andreas down around Gilroy and has various names along its crooked course north past the East Bay: Calaveras, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, Maacama, and so on. The third branch splits off the Calaveras fault in Fremont and runs north still further inland under the names Northern Calaveras, Concord, Green Valley, and Bartlett Springs. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Second, the San Andreas fault system does its thing in its own time, at its own speed. The great tectonic plates that drive these faults move past each other at about two inches a year, roughly the speed your fingernails grow. When a new paper comes out, it’s not reporting any change in the fault system itself. It’s documenting progress in our own understanding, giving us a picture of something a little more in focus than we could see before. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In this week’s paper, Jim Lienkaemper of the U.S. Geological Survey and three coauthors summarize a huge number of measurements of fault creep up and down the state. Fault creep is a steady motion that takes place without earthquakes. Scientists have been making these painstaking measurements for decades at dozens of places, as shown in this map from the paper showing the major strands of the San Andreas fault system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22602\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepmap.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepmap.png\" alt=\"Creep map of San Andreas fault system\" width=\"600\" height=\"547\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22602\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map showing the branches of the San Andreas fault system. Branch A is the San Gregorio fault; branch B is the San Andreas fault; branch C is the Southern Calaveras-Hayward branch; branch D is the Northern Calaveras branch. Portion of Figure 2, Lienkaemper et al., “Using Surface Creep Rate to Infer Fraction Locked for Sections of the San Andreas Fault System in Northern California from Alignment Array and GPS Data,” BSSA, December 2014 (BSAA/USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Creep varies a great deal in the San Andreas fault system. The authors used this creep data to estimate how much of the fault is creeping (not gaining strain energy) and how much is locked together, gathering energy for the next big earthquake. The main strand of the San Andreas fault is almost entirely locked, but the other branches creep at different rates in different places. One of the authors’ big achievements is this graph.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22603\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepgraph.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepgraph.png\" alt=\"Fault creep graphs\" width=\"600\" height=\"371\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22603\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Creep observations along the two eastern branches of the San Andreas fault system. From Figure 3 of Lienkaemper et al.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The authors used this data to assess how much energy has been accumulating on the locked portions of each of 21 specific segments of these faults. Combined with the history of earthquakes on these segments—something these scientists have been studying with \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/03/20/digging-up-new-information-on-old-earthquakes/\">trenching studies\u003c/a> for more than 30 years—they concluded that several fault segments have accumulated enough energy to be released in major earthquakes. They are the Rodgers Creek fault (segment C7), northern Calaveras fault (D1 and D2), southern Green Valley fault (D3), and the southern Hayward fault (C3 and C4). They appear to have reached the level of strain energy (seismic moment) that’s released in earthquakes of magnitude 6.8 to 7.1, around 10 times as strong as the recent magnitude-6 South Napa quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These are not predictions of any sort, just statements about the energy buildup according to a cutting-edge analysis, involving many assumptions, of an imperfectly known geological system. There’s no “overdue” involved, only the suggestion that large quakes are a distinct possibility on these fault segments given their history and behavior. When those quakes may happen is still a roll of the dice. Nothing has changed except what we know.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Bay Area Remembers the Loma Prieta Earthquake",
"headTitle": "Bay Area Remembers the Loma Prieta Earthquake | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22539\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/NimitzFreewayLomaPrietaQuake_FullRes-1024x664.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22539 size-large\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/NimitzFreewayLomaPrietaQuake_FullRes-1024x664.jpg\" alt=\"The upper deck of the Cypress viaduct in Oakland collapsed onto the lower deck during the 1989 earthquake. (Joe Lewis/Wikimedia)\" width=\"1024\" height=\"664\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The upper deck of the Cypress viaduct in Oakland collapsed onto the lower deck during the 1989 earthquake. (Joe Lewis/Wikimedia Commons)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Anyone who was in the Bay Area at 5:04 p.m. on October 17, 1989 has a story to tell about the Loma Prieta earthquake. They are stories of sorrow and survival, humor and courage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Loma Prieta was the largest earthquake on the San Andreas fault since 1906. The 6.9 magnitude quake killed 63 people, injured more than 3,000 others and caused 6 billion dollars in property damage. It ruptured the Bay Bridge, the Embarcadero Freeway in San Francisco and the Nimitz Freeway in Oakland. It halted the World Series between the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland A’s for a record 10 days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake, Bay Area residents can run earthquake drills, share stories and honor the lives of neighbors and loved ones at many events around the bay. And resource fairs will offer kid-friendly activities, plus information and demonstrations to help people prepare for major quakes in the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Thursday, you can participate in the 7th Annual:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"text-align: left;padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.shakeout.org/california/index.html\">\u003cstrong>Great California ShakeOut\u003c/strong> \u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Thursday, October 16\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>10:16 a.m.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The statewide drill encourages workplaces, schools and households to practice how to “drop, cover and hold” during an earthquake. You can register and find more resources online.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22579\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1400px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Earthquake-Responders.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22579 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Earthquake-Responders.jpg\" alt=\"First responders search for victims at a collapsed department store in the Pacific Garden Mall in Santa Cruz. (U.S. Geological Survey)\" width=\"1400\" height=\"936\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">First responders search for victims at a collapsed department store in the Pacific Garden Mall in Santa Cruz after the ’89 quake. (C.E. Meyer/U.S. Geological Survey)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In Santa Cruz and Oakland, officials will honor people who lost their lives, and emergency workers who responded to the disaster. Santa Cruz merchants, past city officials and scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and UC Santa Cruz will reflect on lessons learned from the tragedy and discuss how Santa Cruz is strengthening its resilience for future earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"text-align: left;padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4029&from=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+USGSNewsroomPartial+%28Newsroom+-+Partial+Descriptions%29#.VD6_eBaTzy1\">\u003cstrong>25 Years Later: Santa Cruz after the Loma Prieta Earthquake\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Friday, October 17\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem> 10 a.m. to 11 a.m.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nCorner of Front Street and Pacific Avenue, Santa Cruz\u003cbr>\nFree\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Oakland’s event will honor the 42 people who died when the Cypress Viaduct collapsed, and the many emergency workers who worked on the front lines. A resource fair will help residents prepare for future emergencies with activities, interactive demonstrations, and free earthquake preparedness items for the first 100 attendees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www2.oaklandnet.com/Government/o/OFD/o/OES/OAK049486\">\u003cstrong>Reflect. Honor. Prepare: Bridging Generations & Communities through Preparedness\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Friday, October 17\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem> 11:30 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nCypress Freeway Memorial Park\u003cbr>\nMandela Parkway at 14\u003csup>th\u003c/sup> Street, Oakland\u003cbr>\nFree\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In San Francisco, the outdoor plaza of the Exploratorium will transform into an interactive earthquake preparedness fair. Mayor Ed Lee along with other public officials and community members will share their stories of the 1989 quake. In the “TOP Chef – Taste of Preparedness Cook-off” teams will compete to create a tasty meal using non-perishable items from emergency kits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.exploratorium.edu/visit/calendar/loma-prieta-oct-17-2014\">\u003cstrong>Loma Prieta 25\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Friday, October 17\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem> 12:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nThe Exploratorium\u003cbr>\nPier 15, 698 The Embarcadero, San Francisco\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>Free after 4 p.m.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And in Aptos, near the epicenter of the quake, families can get tips on preparing for wildfires and drought as well as earthquakes, and scientists will share the lessons of Loma Prieta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.sandylydon.com/adv_quake2014.html\">\u003cstrong>Silver Anniversary Preparedness Fair and Lecture\u003c/strong> \u003cstrong>in Aptos\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Saturday, October 18\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem> 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. (Fair) \u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. (Lecture) \u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nCabrillo College\u003cbr>\n6500 Soquel Drive, Aptos\u003cbr>\nQuadrangle between 100 building and the original college theater (Fair)\u003cbr>\nRoom 450, Forum Building, (Lecture)\u003cbr>\nThe fair is free. The lecture is $22.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More events commemorating the 25th Anniversary of Loma Prieta can be found at:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.lp25.org/\">Loma Prieta 25\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://bayquakealliance.org/events/\">Bay Area Earthquake Alliance\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "The 25th Anniversary of the Loma Prieta quake comes up on Friday, and the Bay Area is full of commemorative events, as well as resource fairs to help people prepare for future quakes.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22539\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/NimitzFreewayLomaPrietaQuake_FullRes-1024x664.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22539 size-large\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/NimitzFreewayLomaPrietaQuake_FullRes-1024x664.jpg\" alt=\"The upper deck of the Cypress viaduct in Oakland collapsed onto the lower deck during the 1989 earthquake. (Joe Lewis/Wikimedia)\" width=\"1024\" height=\"664\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The upper deck of the Cypress viaduct in Oakland collapsed onto the lower deck during the 1989 earthquake. (Joe Lewis/Wikimedia Commons)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Anyone who was in the Bay Area at 5:04 p.m. on October 17, 1989 has a story to tell about the Loma Prieta earthquake. They are stories of sorrow and survival, humor and courage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Loma Prieta was the largest earthquake on the San Andreas fault since 1906. The 6.9 magnitude quake killed 63 people, injured more than 3,000 others and caused 6 billion dollars in property damage. It ruptured the Bay Bridge, the Embarcadero Freeway in San Francisco and the Nimitz Freeway in Oakland. It halted the World Series between the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland A’s for a record 10 days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake, Bay Area residents can run earthquake drills, share stories and honor the lives of neighbors and loved ones at many events around the bay. And resource fairs will offer kid-friendly activities, plus information and demonstrations to help people prepare for major quakes in the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Thursday, you can participate in the 7th Annual:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"text-align: left;padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.shakeout.org/california/index.html\">\u003cstrong>Great California ShakeOut\u003c/strong> \u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Thursday, October 16\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>10:16 a.m.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The statewide drill encourages workplaces, schools and households to practice how to “drop, cover and hold” during an earthquake. You can register and find more resources online.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22579\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1400px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Earthquake-Responders.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22579 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Earthquake-Responders.jpg\" alt=\"First responders search for victims at a collapsed department store in the Pacific Garden Mall in Santa Cruz. (U.S. Geological Survey)\" width=\"1400\" height=\"936\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">First responders search for victims at a collapsed department store in the Pacific Garden Mall in Santa Cruz after the ’89 quake. (C.E. Meyer/U.S. Geological Survey)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In Santa Cruz and Oakland, officials will honor people who lost their lives, and emergency workers who responded to the disaster. Santa Cruz merchants, past city officials and scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and UC Santa Cruz will reflect on lessons learned from the tragedy and discuss how Santa Cruz is strengthening its resilience for future earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"text-align: left;padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4029&from=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+USGSNewsroomPartial+%28Newsroom+-+Partial+Descriptions%29#.VD6_eBaTzy1\">\u003cstrong>25 Years Later: Santa Cruz after the Loma Prieta Earthquake\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Friday, October 17\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem> 10 a.m. to 11 a.m.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nCorner of Front Street and Pacific Avenue, Santa Cruz\u003cbr>\nFree\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Oakland’s event will honor the 42 people who died when the Cypress Viaduct collapsed, and the many emergency workers who worked on the front lines. A resource fair will help residents prepare for future emergencies with activities, interactive demonstrations, and free earthquake preparedness items for the first 100 attendees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www2.oaklandnet.com/Government/o/OFD/o/OES/OAK049486\">\u003cstrong>Reflect. Honor. Prepare: Bridging Generations & Communities through Preparedness\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Friday, October 17\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem> 11:30 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nCypress Freeway Memorial Park\u003cbr>\nMandela Parkway at 14\u003csup>th\u003c/sup> Street, Oakland\u003cbr>\nFree\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In San Francisco, the outdoor plaza of the Exploratorium will transform into an interactive earthquake preparedness fair. Mayor Ed Lee along with other public officials and community members will share their stories of the 1989 quake. In the “TOP Chef – Taste of Preparedness Cook-off” teams will compete to create a tasty meal using non-perishable items from emergency kits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.exploratorium.edu/visit/calendar/loma-prieta-oct-17-2014\">\u003cstrong>Loma Prieta 25\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Friday, October 17\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem> 12:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nThe Exploratorium\u003cbr>\nPier 15, 698 The Embarcadero, San Francisco\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>Free after 4 p.m.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And in Aptos, near the epicenter of the quake, families can get tips on preparing for wildfires and drought as well as earthquakes, and scientists will share the lessons of Loma Prieta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.sandylydon.com/adv_quake2014.html\">\u003cstrong>Silver Anniversary Preparedness Fair and Lecture\u003c/strong> \u003cstrong>in Aptos\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Saturday, October 18\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem> 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. (Fair) \u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. (Lecture) \u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nCabrillo College\u003cbr>\n6500 Soquel Drive, Aptos\u003cbr>\nQuadrangle between 100 building and the original college theater (Fair)\u003cbr>\nRoom 450, Forum Building, (Lecture)\u003cbr>\nThe fair is free. The lecture is $22.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More events commemorating the 25th Anniversary of Loma Prieta can be found at:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.lp25.org/\">Loma Prieta 25\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://bayquakealliance.org/events/\">Bay Area Earthquake Alliance\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Long After Fracking Stops, The Noise Lives On",
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"content": "\u003cdiv>Copyright 2014 NPR. To see more, visit \u003ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"http://www.npr.org/\">http://www.npr.org/\u003c/a>.\u003c/div>\n\u003cp> \u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/story/2014/10/14/145343/long_after_fracking_stops_the_noise_lives_on?source=npr&category=science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"rssmi_more\">…Read More\u003c/a> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Source: \u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/story/2014/10/14/145343/long_after_fracking_stops_the_noise_lives_on?source=npr&category=science\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Long After Fracking Stops, The Noise Lives On\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NPR Science – ingested into KQED\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"title": "25 Years After the Loma Prieta Earthquake, Are We Safer?",
"headTitle": "25 Years After the Loma Prieta Earthquake, Are We Safer? | KQED",
"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"audio-wrap\">\n\u003ch2>Listen:\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2014/10/20141013science.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22449\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 758px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/cypress-viaduct.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22449\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/cypress-viaduct.jpeg\" alt=\"Side view of support-column failure and collapsed upper deck, Cypress viaduct. [H.G. Wilshire, U.S. Geological Survey]\" width=\"758\" height=\"512\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Cypress viaduct in Oakland collapsed in the Loma Prieta earthquake. (H.G. Wilshire/U.S. Geological Survey) \u003ccite>(H.G. Wilshire/U.S. Geological Survey)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Twenty-five years ago this Friday, the Loma Prieta earthquake tore across the Bay Area landscape. The quake ruptured the Bay Bridge and ripped through buildings, killing 63 people and injuring more than 3,000 others. More than 11,000 homes were destroyed … more than 12,000 people left homeless.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Thousands of people \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2013/12/19/candlestick-park-loma-prieta-earthquake\">were in Candlestick Park\u003c/a> when the quake hit at 5:04, just before the start of Game 3 in the World Series Battle of the Bay, the San Francisco Giants playing the Oakland A’s. The quake \u003ca href=\"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUKNvoAAa8s\">shut down the broadcast\u003c/a> and halted the Series for a record 10 days. (The A’s won.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since Loma Prieta, billions of dollars have gone into making the Bay Area safer for the next Big One. So, a quarter-century later, how are we doing?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think there’s really a lot to celebrate,” says Dr. Mary Lou Zoback, a consulting professor in geophysics at Stanford University and a widely recognized authority on earthquakes and risk management. “In fact I’ve been telling people I think the Bay Area is an epicenter of resilience.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Resilience” is the word that gets risk managers excited. It’s the idea that the roads, buildings and services people need the most can be made ready for a big shake. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The damage and destruction can’t be avoided, but it doesn’t have to be life-stopping.”\u003ccite>— Dr. Mary Lou Zoback, Stanford University\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp> Then, after an earthquake, emergency centers could be up and running right away and power and water could be back up within days instead of months. People could stay in their homes, return to work and shop at their corner grocery store. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a resilient city, fewer small businesses would fail after a major earthquake, because the residents they rely on would still be there. Schools could re-open, so fewer families would have to leave in order to send their children back to school. The economy could rebound a bit more readily.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The damage and destruction can’t be avoided,” Zoback says, “but it doesn’t have to be life-stopping.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Lot of Work Done\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While experts agree the Bay Area still has a lot of work to do to be resilient in all these ways, they also say we’re in much better shape today than we were 25 years ago.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Loma Prieta was a game-changer, particularly for Northern California,” says Dr. David Schwartz, a senior geologist with the U.S. Geological Service, and Co-Chairman of the Bay Area Earthquake Alliance. “It led to a tremendous number of changes regarding infrastructure.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22465\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/RS6229_IMG_5691-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/RS6229_IMG_5691-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"The new eastern span of the Bay Bridge. The eastbound deck (center) is exposed, no longer underneath westbound deck. (Andrew Stelzer/KQED)\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" class=\"size-large wp-image-22465\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The new eastern span of the Bay Bridge. The eastbound deck (center) is exposed, no longer underneath westbound deck. (Andrew Stelzer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://baybridgeinfo.org/\">Bay Bridge\u003c/a>, at $6.5 billion dollars, is one of the best-known infrastructure retrofits. Another is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfwater.org/index.aspx?page=115\">Hetch-Hetchy water system upgrade\u003c/a>. That’s a $4.6 billion project to ensure a reliable water supply for 2.6 million Bay Area residents, in the event of an earthquake — and it’s roughly 80 percent done.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then, there are unheralded miles of other bridges, pipelines and tunnels, retrofitted by public agencies and private companies. Zoback says the leader was the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ebmud.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/Earthquake_Readiness_0.pdf\">East Bay Municipal Utility District\u003c/a>. They provide water for more than a million people in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, and, says Zoback, they got to work immediately after Loma Prieta, identifying where the pipelines were vulnerable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In many cases they had single lines crossing faults,” Zoback says, “so if that line went down the whole system would go down. So they set about very early on a retrofit program that was not only looking at their actual pipelines and dams, but also the administrative buildings that need to be running.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By prioritizing operations, as well as pipelines, and then financing the work with bonds that are paid back by rate increases, Zoback says East Bay MUD set the model for infrastructure retrofits in the Bay Area, and other utilities followed suit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Overall, the San Francisco Bay Area has made amazing progress,” Zoback says. “We’ve invested on the order of $50 billion in strengthening buildings and infrastructure, just in that past 25 years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Part of that money has gone into strengthening city halls, where many cities have their emergency command centers. These buildings have been retrofitted to keep emergency centers functional after an earthquake. That’s more than the law requires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Because our building code standard is really something we call Life Safety standard,” Zoback says, “which means the building could largely collapse but people would be able to get out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Water, power, bridges, emergency command centers – here’s where the Bay Area has made the biggest strides in the 25 years since Loma Prieta. The areas that still have a way to go?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22447\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 765px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/building-and-water.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22447\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/building-and-water.jpeg\" alt=\"Ground view of collapsed building and burned area shown in photo 4, Beach and Divisadero, Marina District. [C.E. Meyer, U.S. Geological Survey]\" width=\"765\" height=\"512\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Liquefaction in the soil substrate caused many buildings in San Francisco’s Marina neighborhood to collapse. (C.E. Meyer/USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“The greatest challenge for the next 25 years are private facilities,” says Danielle Mieler, Resilience Program Coordinator for the \u003ca href=\"http://resilience.abag.ca.gov/\">Association of Bay Area Governments\u003c/a> (ABAG). “Homes, private schools and businesses.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Part of the reason it’s a challenge is that many private property owners are individuals and small businesses who can’t simply float a bond measure or raise rates to get funding for a seismic retrofit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The city is able to find financing mechanisms that aren’t available to the private sector,” says Patrick Otellini, chief resilience officer for San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Three categories on the top of risk managers’ minds? Private schools, hospitals and soft-story buildings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How Many Private Schools Could Collapse?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Private schools tend to be located in old or historic buildings, says Mieler, and when a private school takes over a building, there’s no law requiring the building be brought up to code.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“I don’t think it’s understood by many people that private school and public school standards are different.”\u003ccite>— Danielle Mieler, Association of Bay Area Governments\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Furthermore, while public schools are required by state law to meet certain design and seismic standards, private schools are not subject to these laws.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t think it’s understood by many people that private school and public school standards are different,” Mieler says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Whether the Bay Area’s private schools could survive a quake is a mystery, because hardly any have been inspected. San Francisco, where one-third of school children attend private schools, only just passed an ordinance requiring these schools have earthquake inspections. That was after a \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfgsa.org/index.aspx?page=6047\">task force report\u003c/a> found that one-third of private schools in the city would “perform poorly” in an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Hospitals: Upgraded, But Not Necessarily Functional\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hospitals have been scrambling to raise funds for and complete seismic upgrades since a 2008 law requiring that all acute care buildings be brought up to the Life Safety standard by 2013. Hospitals could choose between retrofitting, rebuilding, or removing the building from service. Governor Brown recently signed legislation giving a few hospitals until 2015 to meet the standard.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development says 88 percent of California’s acute care hospital buildings are now no longer in danger of collapsing in an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But hospitals have until 2030 to show they can provide medical care right after a quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Until they all reach this performance standard that they can function within hours, we’re going to have a case where some hospitals are just not going to be able to provide services,” Zoback says. “It may be because they don’t have the power or the water, or it may be portions collapse, and it could just be stairwells, or the elevators don’t work, and some of those things can cripple a hospital, even though the building itself is still standing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The biggest question for hospitals is where the money will come from to do the next level of retrofits, and right now, there’s not a clear answer to that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22461\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 760px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/soft-story.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22461\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/soft-story.jpeg\" alt=\"Absence of adequate shear walls on the garage level exacerbated damage to this structure at the corner of Beach and Divisadero Streets, Marina District. [J.K. Nakata, U.S. Geological Survey]\" width=\"760\" height=\"512\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This collapse at the garage level shows what can happen to a soft-story building in an earthquake. (J.K. Nakata, USGS) \u003ccite>(J.K. Nakata, U.S. Geological Survey)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Soft-Story Buildings: In Process\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Think of an apartment building with three or four stories over a garage, or over a retail space with large windows; that’s a soft-story building. It’s a building where the lower level isn’t reinforced as strongly as the upper levels, and these buildings are prone to “soft-story collapse” in an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bay Area cities are tackling the problem in various ways, says ABAG’s Mieler. Berkeley is mandating retrofits Alameda required owners to evaluate their buildings and Oakland is figuring out how to get retrofits done, after a survey that showed about 1,400 soft-story buildings in need of upgrades. There was a study done several years back on South Bay soft-story buildings, Mieler says, but no action yet on upgrades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco just completed its survey, Otellini says, and found 4,800 soft-story buildings in need of a retrofit. The biggest obstacle is money, since private owners simply have to pay for it. So Otellini says he’s putting together a series of agreements with local banks to finance the retrofits using a range of loan options the banks will create.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Anticipating the Success Stories\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the stories Zoback likes to tell is about an historic building on the Stanford campus. Roble Hall, built in 1918, is a 3-story dorm with ivy draping the windows, and hollow clay tile walls. Zoback says the building was at risk of collapsing in an earthquake. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22470\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/140402-85301-e1412989143371.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/140402-85301-e1412989143371.jpg\" alt=\"Stanford University completed the retrofit on Roble Dorm and re-opened the doors to 300 students just weeks before Loma Prieta, likely saving hundreds of lives. (Linda A. Cicero / Stanford News Service)\" width=\"640\" height=\"372\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22470\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Consulting geosciences professor and risk management expert Dr. Mary Lou Zoback says Stanford’s timely retrofit of Roble Hall likely saved hundreds of lives. (Linda A. Cicero / Stanford News Service)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Stanford completed a retrofit and opened Roble’s doors to 300 students, as classes began in the fall of 1989. A few weeks later, the earthquake shook the campus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of the students would have been in dorm rooms waiting to go to dinner,” Zoback says. “And we could have had several hundred deaths in this one building alone. So, these are the stories we want to be reporting on in the next earthquake is the success of the retrofits that have been done.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And there’s no doubt that one or more serious earthquakes is in the Bay Area’s future. “We’ve reached a point where the stress from the movement of the plates has built up and they have to release it,” says Schwartz of USGS. “The faults have to fail.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Bay Area taxpayers have spent billions of dollars over the last quarter-century to make our bridges, water pipes and power supplies safer in an earthquake. Experts say that means the Bay Area is much better off now. At the same time, the work is far from over.",
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"title": "25 Years After the Loma Prieta Earthquake, Are We Safer? | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22449\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 758px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/cypress-viaduct.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22449\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/cypress-viaduct.jpeg\" alt=\"Side view of support-column failure and collapsed upper deck, Cypress viaduct. [H.G. Wilshire, U.S. Geological Survey]\" width=\"758\" height=\"512\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Cypress viaduct in Oakland collapsed in the Loma Prieta earthquake. (H.G. Wilshire/U.S. Geological Survey) \u003ccite>(H.G. Wilshire/U.S. Geological Survey)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Twenty-five years ago this Friday, the Loma Prieta earthquake tore across the Bay Area landscape. The quake ruptured the Bay Bridge and ripped through buildings, killing 63 people and injuring more than 3,000 others. More than 11,000 homes were destroyed … more than 12,000 people left homeless.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Thousands of people \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2013/12/19/candlestick-park-loma-prieta-earthquake\">were in Candlestick Park\u003c/a> when the quake hit at 5:04, just before the start of Game 3 in the World Series Battle of the Bay, the San Francisco Giants playing the Oakland A’s. The quake \u003ca href=\"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUKNvoAAa8s\">shut down the broadcast\u003c/a> and halted the Series for a record 10 days. (The A’s won.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since Loma Prieta, billions of dollars have gone into making the Bay Area safer for the next Big One. So, a quarter-century later, how are we doing?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think there’s really a lot to celebrate,” says Dr. Mary Lou Zoback, a consulting professor in geophysics at Stanford University and a widely recognized authority on earthquakes and risk management. “In fact I’ve been telling people I think the Bay Area is an epicenter of resilience.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Resilience” is the word that gets risk managers excited. It’s the idea that the roads, buildings and services people need the most can be made ready for a big shake. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The damage and destruction can’t be avoided, but it doesn’t have to be life-stopping.”\u003ccite>— Dr. Mary Lou Zoback, Stanford University\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp> Then, after an earthquake, emergency centers could be up and running right away and power and water could be back up within days instead of months. People could stay in their homes, return to work and shop at their corner grocery store. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a resilient city, fewer small businesses would fail after a major earthquake, because the residents they rely on would still be there. Schools could re-open, so fewer families would have to leave in order to send their children back to school. The economy could rebound a bit more readily.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The damage and destruction can’t be avoided,” Zoback says, “but it doesn’t have to be life-stopping.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Lot of Work Done\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While experts agree the Bay Area still has a lot of work to do to be resilient in all these ways, they also say we’re in much better shape today than we were 25 years ago.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Loma Prieta was a game-changer, particularly for Northern California,” says Dr. David Schwartz, a senior geologist with the U.S. Geological Service, and Co-Chairman of the Bay Area Earthquake Alliance. “It led to a tremendous number of changes regarding infrastructure.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22465\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/RS6229_IMG_5691-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/RS6229_IMG_5691-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"The new eastern span of the Bay Bridge. The eastbound deck (center) is exposed, no longer underneath westbound deck. (Andrew Stelzer/KQED)\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" class=\"size-large wp-image-22465\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The new eastern span of the Bay Bridge. The eastbound deck (center) is exposed, no longer underneath westbound deck. (Andrew Stelzer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://baybridgeinfo.org/\">Bay Bridge\u003c/a>, at $6.5 billion dollars, is one of the best-known infrastructure retrofits. Another is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfwater.org/index.aspx?page=115\">Hetch-Hetchy water system upgrade\u003c/a>. That’s a $4.6 billion project to ensure a reliable water supply for 2.6 million Bay Area residents, in the event of an earthquake — and it’s roughly 80 percent done.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then, there are unheralded miles of other bridges, pipelines and tunnels, retrofitted by public agencies and private companies. Zoback says the leader was the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ebmud.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/Earthquake_Readiness_0.pdf\">East Bay Municipal Utility District\u003c/a>. They provide water for more than a million people in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, and, says Zoback, they got to work immediately after Loma Prieta, identifying where the pipelines were vulnerable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In many cases they had single lines crossing faults,” Zoback says, “so if that line went down the whole system would go down. So they set about very early on a retrofit program that was not only looking at their actual pipelines and dams, but also the administrative buildings that need to be running.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By prioritizing operations, as well as pipelines, and then financing the work with bonds that are paid back by rate increases, Zoback says East Bay MUD set the model for infrastructure retrofits in the Bay Area, and other utilities followed suit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Overall, the San Francisco Bay Area has made amazing progress,” Zoback says. “We’ve invested on the order of $50 billion in strengthening buildings and infrastructure, just in that past 25 years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Part of that money has gone into strengthening city halls, where many cities have their emergency command centers. These buildings have been retrofitted to keep emergency centers functional after an earthquake. That’s more than the law requires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Because our building code standard is really something we call Life Safety standard,” Zoback says, “which means the building could largely collapse but people would be able to get out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Water, power, bridges, emergency command centers – here’s where the Bay Area has made the biggest strides in the 25 years since Loma Prieta. The areas that still have a way to go?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22447\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 765px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/building-and-water.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22447\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/building-and-water.jpeg\" alt=\"Ground view of collapsed building and burned area shown in photo 4, Beach and Divisadero, Marina District. [C.E. Meyer, U.S. Geological Survey]\" width=\"765\" height=\"512\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Liquefaction in the soil substrate caused many buildings in San Francisco’s Marina neighborhood to collapse. (C.E. Meyer/USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“The greatest challenge for the next 25 years are private facilities,” says Danielle Mieler, Resilience Program Coordinator for the \u003ca href=\"http://resilience.abag.ca.gov/\">Association of Bay Area Governments\u003c/a> (ABAG). “Homes, private schools and businesses.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Part of the reason it’s a challenge is that many private property owners are individuals and small businesses who can’t simply float a bond measure or raise rates to get funding for a seismic retrofit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The city is able to find financing mechanisms that aren’t available to the private sector,” says Patrick Otellini, chief resilience officer for San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Three categories on the top of risk managers’ minds? Private schools, hospitals and soft-story buildings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How Many Private Schools Could Collapse?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Private schools tend to be located in old or historic buildings, says Mieler, and when a private school takes over a building, there’s no law requiring the building be brought up to code.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“I don’t think it’s understood by many people that private school and public school standards are different.”\u003ccite>— Danielle Mieler, Association of Bay Area Governments\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Furthermore, while public schools are required by state law to meet certain design and seismic standards, private schools are not subject to these laws.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t think it’s understood by many people that private school and public school standards are different,” Mieler says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Whether the Bay Area’s private schools could survive a quake is a mystery, because hardly any have been inspected. San Francisco, where one-third of school children attend private schools, only just passed an ordinance requiring these schools have earthquake inspections. That was after a \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfgsa.org/index.aspx?page=6047\">task force report\u003c/a> found that one-third of private schools in the city would “perform poorly” in an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Hospitals: Upgraded, But Not Necessarily Functional\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hospitals have been scrambling to raise funds for and complete seismic upgrades since a 2008 law requiring that all acute care buildings be brought up to the Life Safety standard by 2013. Hospitals could choose between retrofitting, rebuilding, or removing the building from service. Governor Brown recently signed legislation giving a few hospitals until 2015 to meet the standard.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development says 88 percent of California’s acute care hospital buildings are now no longer in danger of collapsing in an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But hospitals have until 2030 to show they can provide medical care right after a quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Until they all reach this performance standard that they can function within hours, we’re going to have a case where some hospitals are just not going to be able to provide services,” Zoback says. “It may be because they don’t have the power or the water, or it may be portions collapse, and it could just be stairwells, or the elevators don’t work, and some of those things can cripple a hospital, even though the building itself is still standing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The biggest question for hospitals is where the money will come from to do the next level of retrofits, and right now, there’s not a clear answer to that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22461\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 760px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/soft-story.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22461\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/soft-story.jpeg\" alt=\"Absence of adequate shear walls on the garage level exacerbated damage to this structure at the corner of Beach and Divisadero Streets, Marina District. [J.K. Nakata, U.S. Geological Survey]\" width=\"760\" height=\"512\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This collapse at the garage level shows what can happen to a soft-story building in an earthquake. (J.K. Nakata, USGS) \u003ccite>(J.K. Nakata, U.S. Geological Survey)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Soft-Story Buildings: In Process\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Think of an apartment building with three or four stories over a garage, or over a retail space with large windows; that’s a soft-story building. It’s a building where the lower level isn’t reinforced as strongly as the upper levels, and these buildings are prone to “soft-story collapse” in an earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bay Area cities are tackling the problem in various ways, says ABAG’s Mieler. Berkeley is mandating retrofits Alameda required owners to evaluate their buildings and Oakland is figuring out how to get retrofits done, after a survey that showed about 1,400 soft-story buildings in need of upgrades. There was a study done several years back on South Bay soft-story buildings, Mieler says, but no action yet on upgrades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco just completed its survey, Otellini says, and found 4,800 soft-story buildings in need of a retrofit. The biggest obstacle is money, since private owners simply have to pay for it. So Otellini says he’s putting together a series of agreements with local banks to finance the retrofits using a range of loan options the banks will create.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Anticipating the Success Stories\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the stories Zoback likes to tell is about an historic building on the Stanford campus. Roble Hall, built in 1918, is a 3-story dorm with ivy draping the windows, and hollow clay tile walls. Zoback says the building was at risk of collapsing in an earthquake. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22470\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/140402-85301-e1412989143371.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/140402-85301-e1412989143371.jpg\" alt=\"Stanford University completed the retrofit on Roble Dorm and re-opened the doors to 300 students just weeks before Loma Prieta, likely saving hundreds of lives. (Linda A. Cicero / Stanford News Service)\" width=\"640\" height=\"372\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22470\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Consulting geosciences professor and risk management expert Dr. Mary Lou Zoback says Stanford’s timely retrofit of Roble Hall likely saved hundreds of lives. (Linda A. Cicero / Stanford News Service)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Stanford completed a retrofit and opened Roble’s doors to 300 students, as classes began in the fall of 1989. A few weeks later, the earthquake shook the campus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of the students would have been in dorm rooms waiting to go to dinner,” Zoback says. “And we could have had several hundred deaths in this one building alone. So, these are the stories we want to be reporting on in the next earthquake is the success of the retrofits that have been done.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And there’s no doubt that one or more serious earthquakes is in the Bay Area’s future. “We’ve reached a point where the stress from the movement of the plates has built up and they have to release it,” says Schwartz of USGS. “The faults have to fail.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Join a Series of Geological Treasure Hunts With Earth Science Week 2014",
"headTitle": "Join a Series of Geological Treasure Hunts With Earth Science Week 2014 | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22390\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-2.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-2.jpg\" alt=\"Mammoth Rocks\" width=\"600\" height=\"421\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22390\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Mammoth Rocks, Sonoma County (Andrew Alden)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Every year, around the opposite side of the calendar from Earth Day, is a loosely organized event called \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/\">Earth Science Week\u003c/a>. (It also has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/pages/Earth-Science-Week/24519701661\">Facebook page\u003c/a>.) Earth Science Week is October 12-18 this year, and the special theme for 2014 is “Earth’s Connected Systems.” Think of it as a series of treasure hunts with a mass demonstration in the middle.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sunday the 12th launches Earth Science Week with \u003ca href=\"http://community.geosociety.org/EarthCache/events/earthcacheday\">International EarthCache Day\u003c/a>. EarthCaches are a science-oriented kind of geocache—you visit a precise location, using a GPS instrument, and follow a set of instructions to learn about what geological feature you’re seeing there. Unlike ordinary geocaches, you don’t retrieve a hidden box and trade for one of the trinkets inside. \u003ca href=\"http://blog.geocaching.com/2014/09/your-next-souvenir-reveals-mysteries-of-the-earth/\">But you can earn a special EarthCache souvenir that day.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Monday is Earth Science Literacy Day. Task forces of geologists have been debating the concept of “Earth science literacy” for the last few years, deciding what are the most important things we want you to know. The Earth Science Week website suggests that you \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/big-ideas\">start with nine “big ideas.”\u003c/a> This page is pitched at teachers, but you can be your own teacher any time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22391\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-4.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-4.jpg\" alt=\"Tafoni\" width=\"600\" height=\"428\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22391\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Honeycomb weathering at Pebble Beach, San Mateo County\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Tuesday is No Child Left Inside Day. Teachers are finding it more and more of a hassle to take their classes outdoors, despite the well-known benefits of simply getting outside and walking around. Why not skip the permission slips and do it yourself, with or without a child of your own. Teachers of all kinds, even informal ones like most of us, can use \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/ncli\">a page of ideas and guidelines from the Earth Science Week organizers\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>National Fossil Day is Wednesday, October 15. This is mainly celebrated by the National Park Service, and \u003ca href=\"http://nature.nps.gov/geology/nationalfossilday/events.cfm\">events are scheduled across the country\u003c/a>. If you happen to be in Washington DC, \u003ca href=\"http://qrius.si.edu/blog/journey-back-through-time-national-fossil-day-october-15\">the Smithsonian Institution is sponsoring a set of activities\u003c/a>. But my friends on Twitter will surely be showing off their fossils that day too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Thursday coincides with the \u003ca href=\"http://www.shakeout.org/california/\">Great California ShakeOut\u003c/a>. Participating is very simple to do—at 10:16 that morning over 10 million people across the state will conduct a massive “drop, cover, and hold on” drill. This is something that we need to work into our culture—consider it a part of your identity as a Californian, and it only takes a minute. If you have more time, there are plenty more steps you can take on the ShakeOut site. My favorite easy-to-remember tip is “text first, talk second” after a major earthquake to save the load on the mobile phone network.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Thursday is also tagged as Geoscience for Everyone Day. Earth science Week’s sponsor, the American Geosciences Institute, \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/geoscience-everyone-day\">pitches this as a day for people to explore careers in the geosciences\u003c/a>, especially those from under-represented groups. \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2012/10/04/earth-science-week-2012-carees-in-the-field/\">I’ve written more about that for KQED\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22392\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-3.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-3.jpg\" alt=\"Serpentine\" width=\"600\" height=\"447\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22392\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Serpentinite in the Oakland Hills, Alameda County\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Friday is \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/geologic-map-day\">Geologic Map Day\u003c/a>, celebrating one of my favorite things in geology, the colorful maps that show the different types of bedrock in a region. Geologic maps aren’t just beautiful and interesting—they’re useful for planning anything that digs up the ground, for finding minerals and avoiding hazards, and for a deeper understanding of the countryside around us. The California Geological Survey has a bunch of free maps online on its \u003ca href=\"http://www.consrv.ca.gov/cgs/information/Pages/EdResCenter.aspx\">Information page\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Saturday winds up the week with \u003ca href=\"http://www.archaeological.org/archaeologyday\">International Archaeology Day\u003c/a>, sponsored by the Archaeological Insitute of America. There are many events scattered around the country and the calendar, but I suggest that your nearest natural history museum would welcome visitors, that day or any other one. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earth’s connected systems reach into the atmosphere and space as well as into the ground and the deep past. That’s why the space agency NASA is getting involved, too, with \u003ca href=\"http://nasaesw.strategies.org/events/\">a set of events aimed at students and teachers\u003c/a>. Perhaps you’d like to learn about clouds with a team of NASA atmospheric scientists; that’s happening Friday morning. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22393\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014.jpg\" alt=\"Sedimentary rock\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22393\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u003ci>To me the converging objects of the universe perpetually flow,\n\u003c/i>\u003cp>All are written to me, and I must get what the writing means.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Walt Whitman\u003c/p>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The connections of the Earth’s systems mean that everything geologists study can be brought to bear on global problems, often in unexpected ways. The central problem of climate change, and how we can cope with it, has connections throughout Earth science. Keep that in mind as you learn more about geology, the central science, next week.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22390\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-2.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-2.jpg\" alt=\"Mammoth Rocks\" width=\"600\" height=\"421\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22390\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Mammoth Rocks, Sonoma County (Andrew Alden)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Every year, around the opposite side of the calendar from Earth Day, is a loosely organized event called \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/\">Earth Science Week\u003c/a>. (It also has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/pages/Earth-Science-Week/24519701661\">Facebook page\u003c/a>.) Earth Science Week is October 12-18 this year, and the special theme for 2014 is “Earth’s Connected Systems.” Think of it as a series of treasure hunts with a mass demonstration in the middle.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sunday the 12th launches Earth Science Week with \u003ca href=\"http://community.geosociety.org/EarthCache/events/earthcacheday\">International EarthCache Day\u003c/a>. EarthCaches are a science-oriented kind of geocache—you visit a precise location, using a GPS instrument, and follow a set of instructions to learn about what geological feature you’re seeing there. Unlike ordinary geocaches, you don’t retrieve a hidden box and trade for one of the trinkets inside. \u003ca href=\"http://blog.geocaching.com/2014/09/your-next-souvenir-reveals-mysteries-of-the-earth/\">But you can earn a special EarthCache souvenir that day.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Monday is Earth Science Literacy Day. Task forces of geologists have been debating the concept of “Earth science literacy” for the last few years, deciding what are the most important things we want you to know. The Earth Science Week website suggests that you \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/big-ideas\">start with nine “big ideas.”\u003c/a> This page is pitched at teachers, but you can be your own teacher any time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22391\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-4.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-4.jpg\" alt=\"Tafoni\" width=\"600\" height=\"428\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22391\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Honeycomb weathering at Pebble Beach, San Mateo County\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Tuesday is No Child Left Inside Day. Teachers are finding it more and more of a hassle to take their classes outdoors, despite the well-known benefits of simply getting outside and walking around. Why not skip the permission slips and do it yourself, with or without a child of your own. Teachers of all kinds, even informal ones like most of us, can use \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/ncli\">a page of ideas and guidelines from the Earth Science Week organizers\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>National Fossil Day is Wednesday, October 15. This is mainly celebrated by the National Park Service, and \u003ca href=\"http://nature.nps.gov/geology/nationalfossilday/events.cfm\">events are scheduled across the country\u003c/a>. If you happen to be in Washington DC, \u003ca href=\"http://qrius.si.edu/blog/journey-back-through-time-national-fossil-day-october-15\">the Smithsonian Institution is sponsoring a set of activities\u003c/a>. But my friends on Twitter will surely be showing off their fossils that day too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Thursday coincides with the \u003ca href=\"http://www.shakeout.org/california/\">Great California ShakeOut\u003c/a>. Participating is very simple to do—at 10:16 that morning over 10 million people across the state will conduct a massive “drop, cover, and hold on” drill. This is something that we need to work into our culture—consider it a part of your identity as a Californian, and it only takes a minute. If you have more time, there are plenty more steps you can take on the ShakeOut site. My favorite easy-to-remember tip is “text first, talk second” after a major earthquake to save the load on the mobile phone network.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Thursday is also tagged as Geoscience for Everyone Day. Earth science Week’s sponsor, the American Geosciences Institute, \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/geoscience-everyone-day\">pitches this as a day for people to explore careers in the geosciences\u003c/a>, especially those from under-represented groups. \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2012/10/04/earth-science-week-2012-carees-in-the-field/\">I’ve written more about that for KQED\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22392\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-3.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014-3.jpg\" alt=\"Serpentine\" width=\"600\" height=\"447\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22392\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Serpentinite in the Oakland Hills, Alameda County\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Friday is \u003ca href=\"http://www.earthsciweek.org/geologic-map-day\">Geologic Map Day\u003c/a>, celebrating one of my favorite things in geology, the colorful maps that show the different types of bedrock in a region. Geologic maps aren’t just beautiful and interesting—they’re useful for planning anything that digs up the ground, for finding minerals and avoiding hazards, and for a deeper understanding of the countryside around us. The California Geological Survey has a bunch of free maps online on its \u003ca href=\"http://www.consrv.ca.gov/cgs/information/Pages/EdResCenter.aspx\">Information page\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Saturday winds up the week with \u003ca href=\"http://www.archaeological.org/archaeologyday\">International Archaeology Day\u003c/a>, sponsored by the Archaeological Insitute of America. There are many events scattered around the country and the calendar, but I suggest that your nearest natural history museum would welcome visitors, that day or any other one. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earth’s connected systems reach into the atmosphere and space as well as into the ground and the deep past. That’s why the space agency NASA is getting involved, too, with \u003ca href=\"http://nasaesw.strategies.org/events/\">a set of events aimed at students and teachers\u003c/a>. Perhaps you’d like to learn about clouds with a team of NASA atmospheric scientists; that’s happening Friday morning. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22393\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/ESciweek2014.jpg\" alt=\"Sedimentary rock\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22393\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u003ci>To me the converging objects of the universe perpetually flow,\n\u003c/i>\u003cp>All are written to me, and I must get what the writing means.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Walt Whitman\u003c/p>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The connections of the Earth’s systems mean that everything geologists study can be brought to bear on global problems, often in unexpected ways. The central problem of climate change, and how we can cope with it, has connections throughout Earth science. Keep that in mind as you learn more about geology, the central science, next week.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Computer-Generated Molecular Models Promise Greener Concrete",
"headTitle": "Computer-Generated Molecular Models Promise Greener Concrete | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22208\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/concretebridge.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/concretebridge.jpg\" alt=\"Concrete bridge\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22208\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The concrete bridges carrying Route 1 to the Devil’s Slide tunnels, under construction in June 2008. Advances in cement manufacture promise to substantially shrink the energy costs of this ubiquitous material (Andrew Alden photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Civilization rests on concrete more than any other material. And we’ve been making it for thousands of years. But even so, a new study suggests that “greener” concrete is possible that may save almost half of its tremendous cost in energy and carbon dioxide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Concrete is an artificial stone, made by binding gravel and sand, known as \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/06/06/californias-pending-sand-and-gravel-crunch/\">aggregate\u003c/a>, together with the compound known as cement. Cement is like bread dough in that it consists of a small set of ingredients in highly variable proportions. In the case of cement, they are silicon, calcium, and water. Cement is not a set of specific calcium-silicate minerals, but a half-crystalline, half-glassy mush or gel called C-S-H (for “calcium silicate hydrate”). There appears to be no one ideal formula for C-S-H. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cement is expensive in terms of energy and greenhouse gases. It must be manufactured at very high temperatures by roasting various minerals. And beyond that, the calcium comes from \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/08/11/what-happens-to-old-quarries/\">limestone\u003c/a> (calcium carbonate), which releases carbon dioxide from its own substance in the roasting process and adds to the greenhouse-gas burden. Given that cement accounts for as much as 10 percent of global carbon emissions, it’s worth learning how to minimize this cost and make concrete as green a product as we know how.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The ancient Greeks and Romans made concrete structures that survive to this day. After all these centuries, we have lots of experience making cement. But apparently trial and error, even systematic experimentation, hasn’t been enough. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140924/ncomms5960/full/ncomms5960.html\">open-access paper\u003c/a> published last month in \u003ci>Nature Communications\u003c/i> used a novel method to systematically explore the C-S-H recipe. A team at MIT’s \u003ca href=\"https://cshub.mit.edu/\">Concrete Sustainability Hub\u003c/a>, led by Roland Pellenq, used a computer to build atom-by-atom models of cement from a wide range of recipes, then predict the mechanical strength of the resulting material. It was a kind of brute-force approach varying only the ratio of calcium to silicon, or C/S, between 1 and 2, that is, a formula with equal parts calcium and silicon and a formula with half as much calcium. The genius of their method was that the computer could build many different molecular models of cement from the exact same formula, then calculate the strengths of the various models. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22209\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/cementmodels.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/cementmodels.jpg\" alt=\"Molecular models of cement\" width=\"600\" height=\"271\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22209\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Molecular models of C-S-H at different C/S ratios. As C/S rises (that is, as silicon is removed), the structure becomes more disorganized—less crystalline and more glassy. From Figure 1 of Abdolhosseini Qomi et al., “\u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140924/ncomms5960/full/ncomms5960.html\">Combinatorial molecular optimization of cement hydrates\u003c/a>” (Pellenq/Nature)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The next step was to search for the strongest models, which Pellenq’s team found at a sweet spot near a C/S ratio of 1.5. Certain models with that composition were one-third to one-half as much stronger. The key to the added strength appears to be a more subtle feature of the models, the medium-range correlation length of the silicon and calcium groups. If we can learn to control these features, we can emit less carbon by using less cement overall. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This study is fundamental and will need to be translated into practice in the complex technology that is modern concrete. (Browse the information at \u003ca href=\"http://www.concretenetwork.com/concrete-information/\">concretenetwork.com\u003c/a> for a glimpse of the complexities.) And efforts like the MIT team’s aren’t the only route to better concrete. For instance, cement infused with just half a percent of carbon nanotubes \u003ca href=\"http://www.architectureanddesign.com.au/news/stronger-and-cleaner-concrete-enriched-by-eden-s-c\">appears to become almost one-third stronger\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "More precisely targeted cement would use less calcium and use less energy to create it. A study at MIT exploring the molecular structure of cement promises substantial energy and greenhouse-gas savings in this crucial technology.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22208\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/concretebridge.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/concretebridge.jpg\" alt=\"Concrete bridge\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22208\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The concrete bridges carrying Route 1 to the Devil’s Slide tunnels, under construction in June 2008. Advances in cement manufacture promise to substantially shrink the energy costs of this ubiquitous material (Andrew Alden photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Civilization rests on concrete more than any other material. And we’ve been making it for thousands of years. But even so, a new study suggests that “greener” concrete is possible that may save almost half of its tremendous cost in energy and carbon dioxide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Concrete is an artificial stone, made by binding gravel and sand, known as \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/06/06/californias-pending-sand-and-gravel-crunch/\">aggregate\u003c/a>, together with the compound known as cement. Cement is like bread dough in that it consists of a small set of ingredients in highly variable proportions. In the case of cement, they are silicon, calcium, and water. Cement is not a set of specific calcium-silicate minerals, but a half-crystalline, half-glassy mush or gel called C-S-H (for “calcium silicate hydrate”). There appears to be no one ideal formula for C-S-H. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cement is expensive in terms of energy and greenhouse gases. It must be manufactured at very high temperatures by roasting various minerals. And beyond that, the calcium comes from \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/08/11/what-happens-to-old-quarries/\">limestone\u003c/a> (calcium carbonate), which releases carbon dioxide from its own substance in the roasting process and adds to the greenhouse-gas burden. Given that cement accounts for as much as 10 percent of global carbon emissions, it’s worth learning how to minimize this cost and make concrete as green a product as we know how.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The ancient Greeks and Romans made concrete structures that survive to this day. After all these centuries, we have lots of experience making cement. But apparently trial and error, even systematic experimentation, hasn’t been enough. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140924/ncomms5960/full/ncomms5960.html\">open-access paper\u003c/a> published last month in \u003ci>Nature Communications\u003c/i> used a novel method to systematically explore the C-S-H recipe. A team at MIT’s \u003ca href=\"https://cshub.mit.edu/\">Concrete Sustainability Hub\u003c/a>, led by Roland Pellenq, used a computer to build atom-by-atom models of cement from a wide range of recipes, then predict the mechanical strength of the resulting material. It was a kind of brute-force approach varying only the ratio of calcium to silicon, or C/S, between 1 and 2, that is, a formula with equal parts calcium and silicon and a formula with half as much calcium. The genius of their method was that the computer could build many different molecular models of cement from the exact same formula, then calculate the strengths of the various models. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22209\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/cementmodels.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/cementmodels.jpg\" alt=\"Molecular models of cement\" width=\"600\" height=\"271\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22209\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Molecular models of C-S-H at different C/S ratios. As C/S rises (that is, as silicon is removed), the structure becomes more disorganized—less crystalline and more glassy. From Figure 1 of Abdolhosseini Qomi et al., “\u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140924/ncomms5960/full/ncomms5960.html\">Combinatorial molecular optimization of cement hydrates\u003c/a>” (Pellenq/Nature)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The next step was to search for the strongest models, which Pellenq’s team found at a sweet spot near a C/S ratio of 1.5. Certain models with that composition were one-third to one-half as much stronger. The key to the added strength appears to be a more subtle feature of the models, the medium-range correlation length of the silicon and calcium groups. If we can learn to control these features, we can emit less carbon by using less cement overall. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This study is fundamental and will need to be translated into practice in the complex technology that is modern concrete. (Browse the information at \u003ca href=\"http://www.concretenetwork.com/concrete-information/\">concretenetwork.com\u003c/a> for a glimpse of the complexities.) And efforts like the MIT team’s aren’t the only route to better concrete. For instance, cement infused with just half a percent of carbon nanotubes \u003ca href=\"http://www.architectureanddesign.com.au/news/stronger-and-cleaner-concrete-enriched-by-eden-s-c\">appears to become almost one-third stronger\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Two New Studies Underline How Methane Matters to Global Carbon Cycle",
"headTitle": "Two New Studies Underline How Methane Matters to Global Carbon Cycle | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21989\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/unhelpfulgas.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21989\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/unhelpfulgas.png\" alt=\"Gas is unhelpful in weaning us from carbon\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The red and green lines in graph A show that gas supply, whether high (red) or low (green), does not appreciably affect carbon emissions under any given policy. “RPS” is “renewable portfolio standard,” a policy like the state of California’s that requires a percentage of renewable energy. An RPS forces gas to compete directly with coal. Graph B shows total carbon emissions over the next 40 years under different policies; the RPS option makes gas most effective as a bridge fuel by replacing coal. Figure 4 of Shearer et al., “The effect of natural gas supplies on US renewable energy and CO\u003csub>2\u003c/sub> emissions” (\u003ca href=\"http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/9/094008/article\">open access\u003c/a>), \u003ci>Environmental Research Letters\u003c/i> (Christine Shearer/UC Irvine)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Stanford geoscientist Ken Caldeira often says that the fossil-fuel energy system “uses the sky as a waste dump.” Carbon dioxide (CO\u003csub>2\u003c/sub>), the waste created by burning fossil fuels, has been building up in the atmosphere for centuries. CO\u003csub>2\u003c/sub> emissions are setting new records every year, according to the \u003ca href=\"http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/\">Global Carbon Project\u003c/a>, and 2014’s emissions of this greenhouse gas will exceed the 40 billion ton level. The world’s nations are meeting in New York to start hammering out goals and strategies to reduce carbon consumption.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Natural gas—methane or CH\u003csub>4\u003c/sub>—is often called a “bridge fuel” that will help us move away from the carbon-based energy system. As its chemical formula suggests, it relies on burning hydrogen, which yields harmless water as its waste product, more than burning carbon. And methane is abundant in the ground, and the industry is mature. There’s a lot to like about methane, and the arguments are strong. By economics and government policy, methane is already replacing coal as America’s preferred fuel for power generation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Two major problems with methane are that it still burns carbon (although less than half as much as coal) and that the gas itself is a potent greenhouse gas. Wherever it leaks into the air, methane does harm. Two new studies shed light on each of these problems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the first \u003ca href=\"http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/9/094008/article\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">paper\u003c/a>, published this week in the journal Environmental Research Letters, lead author Christine Shearer of UC Irvine argues that moving to methane might not yield us any gain in the fight against carbon. Her research team started with forecasts of the natural-gas supply from 23 different experts. This “expert elicitation” approach doesn’t nail down a precise estimate, but it does a good job of defining the range of plausible possibilities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They then used an energy model named MARKAL to see how those forecasts would change the mix of energy-producing technology, and the CO\u003csub>2\u003c/sub> emissions that result, between 2015 and 2055. No matter how much methane is available, the results are pretty much the same: methane competes with coal, in line with the “bridge fuel” scenario, but it also competes with renewable fuels (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, tidal, etc.). Total carbon emissions differ by less than 10 percent under the whole range of gas supplies. The way to make the biggest change in emissions, the study suggests, is climate policy. Without a policy that requires movement toward renewable energy and away from fossil fuels, natural gas will still leave the sky as a waste dump.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shearer’s study assumes that natural gas production has little or no methane leakage. But \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061503/abstract\">a study in this month’s Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/a> led by Eric Kort, of the University of Michigan, used seven years of satellite observations to look at the large gas fields of the Four Corners region in the Southwest. It found that the area emitted nearly 600,000 tons of methane per year, or 1.8 times as much methane as the best “bottom-up” inventory suggested. That is, when a satellite looks down at the actual atmosphere, it finds twice as much methane as we estimate from surveying known methane sources on the ground. Probably it’s a combination of emissions going undetected and emissions going unreported.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If we end up needing a world carbon monitoring network, along the lines of our current nuclear bomb testing network, this is probably how it will be done.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Natural gas is often called a \"bridge fuel\" that will help ease us off of carbon-based energy. But a study suggests that without policies to push us toward renewables and away from fossil fuels, natural gas will still leave the sky as a waste dump.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21989\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/unhelpfulgas.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21989\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/unhelpfulgas.png\" alt=\"Gas is unhelpful in weaning us from carbon\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The red and green lines in graph A show that gas supply, whether high (red) or low (green), does not appreciably affect carbon emissions under any given policy. “RPS” is “renewable portfolio standard,” a policy like the state of California’s that requires a percentage of renewable energy. An RPS forces gas to compete directly with coal. Graph B shows total carbon emissions over the next 40 years under different policies; the RPS option makes gas most effective as a bridge fuel by replacing coal. Figure 4 of Shearer et al., “The effect of natural gas supplies on US renewable energy and CO\u003csub>2\u003c/sub> emissions” (\u003ca href=\"http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/9/094008/article\">open access\u003c/a>), \u003ci>Environmental Research Letters\u003c/i> (Christine Shearer/UC Irvine)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Stanford geoscientist Ken Caldeira often says that the fossil-fuel energy system “uses the sky as a waste dump.” Carbon dioxide (CO\u003csub>2\u003c/sub>), the waste created by burning fossil fuels, has been building up in the atmosphere for centuries. CO\u003csub>2\u003c/sub> emissions are setting new records every year, according to the \u003ca href=\"http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/\">Global Carbon Project\u003c/a>, and 2014’s emissions of this greenhouse gas will exceed the 40 billion ton level. The world’s nations are meeting in New York to start hammering out goals and strategies to reduce carbon consumption.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Natural gas—methane or CH\u003csub>4\u003c/sub>—is often called a “bridge fuel” that will help us move away from the carbon-based energy system. As its chemical formula suggests, it relies on burning hydrogen, which yields harmless water as its waste product, more than burning carbon. And methane is abundant in the ground, and the industry is mature. There’s a lot to like about methane, and the arguments are strong. By economics and government policy, methane is already replacing coal as America’s preferred fuel for power generation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Two major problems with methane are that it still burns carbon (although less than half as much as coal) and that the gas itself is a potent greenhouse gas. Wherever it leaks into the air, methane does harm. Two new studies shed light on each of these problems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the first \u003ca href=\"http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/9/094008/article\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">paper\u003c/a>, published this week in the journal Environmental Research Letters, lead author Christine Shearer of UC Irvine argues that moving to methane might not yield us any gain in the fight against carbon. Her research team started with forecasts of the natural-gas supply from 23 different experts. This “expert elicitation” approach doesn’t nail down a precise estimate, but it does a good job of defining the range of plausible possibilities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They then used an energy model named MARKAL to see how those forecasts would change the mix of energy-producing technology, and the CO\u003csub>2\u003c/sub> emissions that result, between 2015 and 2055. No matter how much methane is available, the results are pretty much the same: methane competes with coal, in line with the “bridge fuel” scenario, but it also competes with renewable fuels (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, tidal, etc.). Total carbon emissions differ by less than 10 percent under the whole range of gas supplies. The way to make the biggest change in emissions, the study suggests, is climate policy. Without a policy that requires movement toward renewable energy and away from fossil fuels, natural gas will still leave the sky as a waste dump.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shearer’s study assumes that natural gas production has little or no methane leakage. But \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061503/abstract\">a study in this month’s Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/a> led by Eric Kort, of the University of Michigan, used seven years of satellite observations to look at the large gas fields of the Four Corners region in the Southwest. It found that the area emitted nearly 600,000 tons of methane per year, or 1.8 times as much methane as the best “bottom-up” inventory suggested. That is, when a satellite looks down at the actual atmosphere, it finds twice as much methane as we estimate from surveying known methane sources on the ground. Probably it’s a combination of emissions going undetected and emissions going unreported.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If we end up needing a world carbon monitoring network, along the lines of our current nuclear bomb testing network, this is probably how it will be done.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Finding Faults: Scientists Close in on Napa Quake Origins",
"headTitle": "Finding Faults: Scientists Close in on Napa Quake Origins | KQED",
"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"audio-wrap\">\n\u003ch2>Listen:\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2014/09/20140922science.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21776\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/IMG_2163-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-21776\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/IMG_2163-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"USGS Geologist David Schwartz identifies surface cracks in the west Napa Valley that show lateral slip, a clue to the location of faults that caused the magnitude-6 South Napa Earthquake on August 24, 2014.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">USGS geologist David Schwartz identifies which surface cracks in the west Napa Valley offer clues to the location of faults that caused the magnitude-6 South Napa Earthquake on August 24. Schwartz says this buckling of a driveway is from ground shaking, not a direct indicator of the fault’s location. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It took less than 20 seconds to shake apart historic buildings and topple chimneys from Vallejo to St. Helena.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But throughout the Napa Valley, the August 24th \u003ca title=\"Q - NewsFix - SNQ\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2014/08/24/south-napa-earthquake-photos/\">South Napa Earthquake\u003c/a> left its calling cards — not just the startling damage in downtown Napa but subtle traces on the ground itself: clues to what actually happened deep below the surface. In fact, geologists now say that the South Napa quake created more surface fractures than any known quake of its size in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weeks after the magnitude-6.0 shaker, a new picture is emerging of the complex geology underneath. The quake is literally \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/09/02/napa-quake-forces-redrawing-of-fault-maps/\">re-drawing the fault maps\u003c/a> and providing valuable clues to the next major seismic event.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s an incredible laboratory,” says geologist David Schwartz, scrutinizing some buckled pavement in a driveway along Dry Creek Road, west of town.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We develop models and theories based on limited information,” he says, “so we when we have an earthquake that produces the kind of information that this one has, it’s just a great opportunity to learn.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And there’s still a lot to learn about the West Napa Fault Zone, a jumble of faults that runs from near Vallejo, for at least 20 miles up the west side of the Napa Valley. It \u003ci>had \u003c/i>been deceptively quiet, except for a 5-point quake in 2000.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early deconstructions of the South Napa quake indicate that it broke about 6 miles deep, upward and to the northwest, along unnamed strands of the West Napa Fault.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21803\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/FaultMap_SNQ_USGS_800.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21803\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/FaultMap_SNQ_USGS_800.jpg\" alt=\"Orange lines show where surface clues reveal the likely source faults for the South Napa Earthquake. Some areas reveal up to about 18 inches of lateral displacement. (USGS)\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1325\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Orange lines show where surface clues reveal the likely source faults for the South Napa Earthquake. Some areas reveal up to about 18 inches of lateral displacement. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Schwartz has been crisscrossing the valley for the U.S. Geological Survey, studying cracks in roads and driveways for evidence of lateral movement, or side-slip, where it’s clear that one side of the crack moved north and the other south, even if just a few centimeters — just like the jagged fissure that cuts through a west-side subdivision in Napa.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kathy Ortiz remembers riding out the quake, the biggest that she can recall from her 65 years in Napa.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It was unbelievable,” she recalled, days afterward. “My brain is still trying to take it all in.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Ortiz had no clue until daylight appeared that the quake had left a crack running completely across her street and under the homes on either side — a subtle displacement that geologists say mirrors the grinding along the strike-slip fault that broke right under her house. It turns out that Ortiz lives in the Brown’s Valley section of the West Napa Fault Zone, an area that had never been fully mapped.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>In the video below, Schwartz explains why this narrow crack in a suburban street is a clue to the fault’s location beneath.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_fotvoGnF0\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The faults in this part of Napa Valley had been mapped as old faults, faults that may have moved in the last 130,000 years or 1.6 million years,” Schwartz explained. “But they weren’t mapped as ‘Holocene,’ or active.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s about to change. But it’s not like Jules Verne’s “underground” classic, \u003ca title=\"YouTube - Journey trailer\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WF8Bf1d_crk\">Journey to the Center of the Earth\u003c/a>. Explorers can drop submersibles tens of thousands of feet to the ocean floor but there is no staircase through the Earth’s crust.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The crust is complex,” Schwartz says. “And each one of these earthquakes gives us a little bit more insight into how it works, but we’ve got a long way to go.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So far, a combination of ground sleuthing and \u003ca title=\"Wiki - interferometry\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interferometry\">interferometry\u003c/a>, which measures changes in the landscape from satellite data and precise radar measurements from NASA aircraft, have allowed scientists to track the Napa quake’s suspect fault for at least 7 miles beyond where it was mapped before. Ultimately, the re-mapping of these faults will likely mean some changes in the seismic zoning of the Napa Valley, and some reconsideration of what can be built, where.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21774\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/IMG_2157-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-21774\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/IMG_2157-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"UC Riverside geophysicist Gareth Funning uses high-precision GPS antennae and benchmarks placed by the National Geodetic Survey to track ground movements in the Napa Valley. This marker is near Highway 29 in Yountville.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">UC Riverside geophysicist Gareth Funning uses high-precision GPS antennae and benchmarks placed by the National Geodetic Survey to track ground movements in the Napa Valley. This marker is near Highway 29 in Yountville. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>For Gareth Funning, the quake was like hitting the lottery. The geophysicist from UC Riverside had already been running a long-term study of ground movement in the valley when the earth moved. His network of precise GPS antennas will help create a model of the seismic events (literally) underlying the quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We were up north measuring more things like this around Clear Lake when the earthquake happened,” Funning recalls.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He and his graduate assistant, Jerlyn Swiatlowski, hightailed it down to Napa to take fresh readings, tracking the movement of \u003ca title=\"Wiki - post\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survey_marker\">markers\u003c/a> placed in the ground years ago as part of the \u003ca title=\"NOAA - Geodetic Survey\" href=\"http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/\">National Geodetic Survey\u003c/a>. Very precise GPS antennae — accurate to about 2 millimeters — placed over each marker, show that some of them moved up to 10 inches with the August 24th temblor. Funning says he’s using the data to model the underpinnings of the Napa quake and its ripple effects on the local geology.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those models allow us to then calculate the effect of this earthquake on all the other faults around this area,” Funning says, “and whether the stresses on them have changed as a result of this earthquake happening.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Funning says it does appear that neighboring faults from Fairfield to Petaluma were “loaded” with some additional stress by this quake, which could increase the chances of them slipping. The Rodgers Creek fault, which slices from the Bay to Santa Rosa, has the potential for a magnitude-7 quake — bigger than the Loma Prieta quake that hit the Bay Area in 1989.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want to know whether an earthquake on another fault has become more likely because of this one,” Funning says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A month after the quake, scientists are already gaining a better sense of the seismic potential underneath the wine country — but the picture is still coming together, and it’s hard to know exactly what it portends.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sometimes we see sequences of earthquakes over a period of decades and maybe that’s what’ll happen here,” Schwartz says. “We don’t know. But it should heighten the earthquake sensibilities of everyone in the Bay Area.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "The South Napa Earthquake revealed how much we've yet to learn about seismic faults in the Napa Valley.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21776\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/IMG_2163-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-21776\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/IMG_2163-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"USGS Geologist David Schwartz identifies surface cracks in the west Napa Valley that show lateral slip, a clue to the location of faults that caused the magnitude-6 South Napa Earthquake on August 24, 2014.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">USGS geologist David Schwartz identifies which surface cracks in the west Napa Valley offer clues to the location of faults that caused the magnitude-6 South Napa Earthquake on August 24. Schwartz says this buckling of a driveway is from ground shaking, not a direct indicator of the fault’s location. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It took less than 20 seconds to shake apart historic buildings and topple chimneys from Vallejo to St. Helena.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But throughout the Napa Valley, the August 24th \u003ca title=\"Q - NewsFix - SNQ\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2014/08/24/south-napa-earthquake-photos/\">South Napa Earthquake\u003c/a> left its calling cards — not just the startling damage in downtown Napa but subtle traces on the ground itself: clues to what actually happened deep below the surface. In fact, geologists now say that the South Napa quake created more surface fractures than any known quake of its size in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weeks after the magnitude-6.0 shaker, a new picture is emerging of the complex geology underneath. The quake is literally \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/09/02/napa-quake-forces-redrawing-of-fault-maps/\">re-drawing the fault maps\u003c/a> and providing valuable clues to the next major seismic event.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s an incredible laboratory,” says geologist David Schwartz, scrutinizing some buckled pavement in a driveway along Dry Creek Road, west of town.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We develop models and theories based on limited information,” he says, “so we when we have an earthquake that produces the kind of information that this one has, it’s just a great opportunity to learn.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And there’s still a lot to learn about the West Napa Fault Zone, a jumble of faults that runs from near Vallejo, for at least 20 miles up the west side of the Napa Valley. It \u003ci>had \u003c/i>been deceptively quiet, except for a 5-point quake in 2000.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early deconstructions of the South Napa quake indicate that it broke about 6 miles deep, upward and to the northwest, along unnamed strands of the West Napa Fault.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21803\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/FaultMap_SNQ_USGS_800.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21803\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/FaultMap_SNQ_USGS_800.jpg\" alt=\"Orange lines show where surface clues reveal the likely source faults for the South Napa Earthquake. Some areas reveal up to about 18 inches of lateral displacement. (USGS)\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1325\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Orange lines show where surface clues reveal the likely source faults for the South Napa Earthquake. Some areas reveal up to about 18 inches of lateral displacement. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Schwartz has been crisscrossing the valley for the U.S. Geological Survey, studying cracks in roads and driveways for evidence of lateral movement, or side-slip, where it’s clear that one side of the crack moved north and the other south, even if just a few centimeters — just like the jagged fissure that cuts through a west-side subdivision in Napa.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kathy Ortiz remembers riding out the quake, the biggest that she can recall from her 65 years in Napa.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It was unbelievable,” she recalled, days afterward. “My brain is still trying to take it all in.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Ortiz had no clue until daylight appeared that the quake had left a crack running completely across her street and under the homes on either side — a subtle displacement that geologists say mirrors the grinding along the strike-slip fault that broke right under her house. It turns out that Ortiz lives in the Brown’s Valley section of the West Napa Fault Zone, an area that had never been fully mapped.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>In the video below, Schwartz explains why this narrow crack in a suburban street is a clue to the fault’s location beneath.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/A_fotvoGnF0'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/A_fotvoGnF0'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cp>“The faults in this part of Napa Valley had been mapped as old faults, faults that may have moved in the last 130,000 years or 1.6 million years,” Schwartz explained. “But they weren’t mapped as ‘Holocene,’ or active.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s about to change. But it’s not like Jules Verne’s “underground” classic, \u003ca title=\"YouTube - Journey trailer\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WF8Bf1d_crk\">Journey to the Center of the Earth\u003c/a>. Explorers can drop submersibles tens of thousands of feet to the ocean floor but there is no staircase through the Earth’s crust.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The crust is complex,” Schwartz says. “And each one of these earthquakes gives us a little bit more insight into how it works, but we’ve got a long way to go.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So far, a combination of ground sleuthing and \u003ca title=\"Wiki - interferometry\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interferometry\">interferometry\u003c/a>, which measures changes in the landscape from satellite data and precise radar measurements from NASA aircraft, have allowed scientists to track the Napa quake’s suspect fault for at least 7 miles beyond where it was mapped before. Ultimately, the re-mapping of these faults will likely mean some changes in the seismic zoning of the Napa Valley, and some reconsideration of what can be built, where.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21774\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/IMG_2157-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-21774\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/IMG_2157-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"UC Riverside geophysicist Gareth Funning uses high-precision GPS antennae and benchmarks placed by the National Geodetic Survey to track ground movements in the Napa Valley. This marker is near Highway 29 in Yountville.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">UC Riverside geophysicist Gareth Funning uses high-precision GPS antennae and benchmarks placed by the National Geodetic Survey to track ground movements in the Napa Valley. This marker is near Highway 29 in Yountville. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>For Gareth Funning, the quake was like hitting the lottery. The geophysicist from UC Riverside had already been running a long-term study of ground movement in the valley when the earth moved. His network of precise GPS antennas will help create a model of the seismic events (literally) underlying the quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We were up north measuring more things like this around Clear Lake when the earthquake happened,” Funning recalls.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He and his graduate assistant, Jerlyn Swiatlowski, hightailed it down to Napa to take fresh readings, tracking the movement of \u003ca title=\"Wiki - post\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survey_marker\">markers\u003c/a> placed in the ground years ago as part of the \u003ca title=\"NOAA - Geodetic Survey\" href=\"http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/\">National Geodetic Survey\u003c/a>. Very precise GPS antennae — accurate to about 2 millimeters — placed over each marker, show that some of them moved up to 10 inches with the August 24th temblor. Funning says he’s using the data to model the underpinnings of the Napa quake and its ripple effects on the local geology.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those models allow us to then calculate the effect of this earthquake on all the other faults around this area,” Funning says, “and whether the stresses on them have changed as a result of this earthquake happening.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Funning says it does appear that neighboring faults from Fairfield to Petaluma were “loaded” with some additional stress by this quake, which could increase the chances of them slipping. The Rodgers Creek fault, which slices from the Bay to Santa Rosa, has the potential for a magnitude-7 quake — bigger than the Loma Prieta quake that hit the Bay Area in 1989.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want to know whether an earthquake on another fault has become more likely because of this one,” Funning says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A month after the quake, scientists are already gaining a better sense of the seismic potential underneath the wine country — but the picture is still coming together, and it’s hard to know exactly what it portends.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sometimes we see sequences of earthquakes over a period of decades and maybe that’s what’ll happen here,” Schwartz says. “We don’t know. But it should heighten the earthquake sensibilities of everyone in the Bay Area.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "USGS Releases a New Mapping Tool to Assist Tsunami Shelter Development",
"headTitle": "USGS Releases a New Mapping Tool to Assist Tsunami Shelter Development | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21734\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/aberdeen-vs-oceanshores.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21734\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/aberdeen-vs-oceanshores.png\" alt=\"Tsunami evacuation graphs\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">With 25 minutes warning of a large tsunami, high ground is fatally out of reach for most residents of Ocean Shores but close at hand in Aberdeen (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The West Coast is threatened by tsunamis from far and near, but the biggest threat is a tsunami from a local megathrust earthquake of magnitude 8 and greater. The tsunamis we saw in Sumatra in 2004 and in Japan in 2011 were of that type, created when giant subduction earthquakes push up large areas of the seafloor and launch seismic sea waves in every direction. The entire U.S. West Coast north of Cape Mendocino—Cascadia—is a megathrust zone, and this is where the most serious tsunami preparation is occurring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Cascadia subduction zone is capable of a magnitude-9 earthquake—the same size as the Sumatra and Japan quakes. Japan, with its elaborate defensive measures, had a death toll less than one-tenth as great as Sumatra, which had almost none. California, Oregon and Washington, the three states of Cascadia, are trying to reach Japan’s status in tsunami planning and preparation before our own “Big One” comes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tsunami planning is a complex task led by government, in concert with scientists and coastal residents. It starts by figuring out what the waves from a giant earthquake would do. Government geologists have prepared tsunami inundation maps (find them here for \u003ca href=\"http://www.quake.ca.gov/gmaps/WH/tsunamimaps.htm\">California\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://www.oregongeology.org/tsuclearinghouse/pubs-inumaps.htm\">Oregon\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/ger_tsunami_inundation_maps.pdf\">Washington\u003c/a>). Next comes looking at these maps and figuring out where people should run to reach high ground. \u003ca href=\"http://www.oregongeology.org/tsuclearinghouse/pubs-evacbro.htm\">Oregon\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.emd.wa.gov/hazards/haz_tsunami.shtml#TsunamiEvacuationMaps\">Washington\u003c/a> have done this work and prepared evacuation maps; some California cities have issued them too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many coastal towns in Cascadia have little or no high ground and would be overrun by a great tsunami. That leads to where we are today in tsunami planning—installing tsunami shelters or “\u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/09/21/up-up-and-away-escaping-a-tsunami-vertically/\">vertical evacuation sites\u003c/a>” to save lives in these places. This task goes beyond science, because local governments and citizens must participate in siting, designing and building the shelters. There are hearings, reviews and funding to be arranged. And the people must embrace the shelters, with tsunami drills and long-term support, to make them work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this essentially political process does need science. This week \u003ca href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4002\">the U.S. Geological Survey released a new mapping tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst\u003c/a>, to help tsunami shelter planners. This example for the low-lying town of Ocean Shores, Washington, shows the kind of output it creates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21733\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/tsu-evac-tool.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21733\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/tsu-evac-tool.jpg\" alt=\"Tsunami evacuation-time map\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Land types (left) and evacuation time (right) for Ocean Shores. Because the roads quickly become jammed after earthquakes and tsunami alarms, the tool assumes that people will be on foot. Cascadia tsunamis may arrive in half an hour or less (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Ocean Shores was a testing ground for the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst (a case study is reported in the current \u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914000387\">International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction\u003c/a>). Here’s a look at the challenge there, a graph comparing Ocean Shores with nearby Aberdeen. Almost all of Aberdeen is a half-hour’s walk from high ground, but in Ocean Shores the residents would reach safety in a hopeless trickle. In Ocean Shores and other places like it, well-placed tsunami shelters are a matter of life and death.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This kind of analysis can help state and county regulators set priorities. The tool also helps in picking candidate spots for shelters, in specific neighborhoods. The maps and plans can then be judged realistically by the public, either online or in formal hearings, and sound decisions can be made.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocosta School District, on the vulnerable Westport Peninsula in southern Washington, is constructing \u003ca href=\"http://washingtondnr.wordpress.com/2014/05/20/planned-ocosta-tsunami-refuge-would-provide-safe-area-for-students-staff-and-residents/\">the first large vertical evacuation tsunami refuge in this country\u003c/a>. It’s not a dramatic structure, just the roof of the school’s gym with four large stairways leading to it, but the refuge will hold over 1000 people—everyone in the school, plus room to spare for local residents—if the worst happens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The school offers another lesson: according to Timothy Walsh of the state’s geology agency, previous bond measures to replace the school had failed twice, but after the tsunami shelter was added the bond was approved by 70 to 30 percent. Tsunami preparation is not cheap and not yet deeply engrained in our culture, and the benefits may not be obvious until the day that lives are actually saved.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "It may happen just once in your lifetime: a large tsunami is coming, big enough to make you run for your life. Where do you go? USGS has released a new tool to help planners plot out shelters in West Coast communities and other tsunami-hazard zones.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21734\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/aberdeen-vs-oceanshores.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21734\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/aberdeen-vs-oceanshores.png\" alt=\"Tsunami evacuation graphs\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">With 25 minutes warning of a large tsunami, high ground is fatally out of reach for most residents of Ocean Shores but close at hand in Aberdeen (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The West Coast is threatened by tsunamis from far and near, but the biggest threat is a tsunami from a local megathrust earthquake of magnitude 8 and greater. The tsunamis we saw in Sumatra in 2004 and in Japan in 2011 were of that type, created when giant subduction earthquakes push up large areas of the seafloor and launch seismic sea waves in every direction. The entire U.S. West Coast north of Cape Mendocino—Cascadia—is a megathrust zone, and this is where the most serious tsunami preparation is occurring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Cascadia subduction zone is capable of a magnitude-9 earthquake—the same size as the Sumatra and Japan quakes. Japan, with its elaborate defensive measures, had a death toll less than one-tenth as great as Sumatra, which had almost none. California, Oregon and Washington, the three states of Cascadia, are trying to reach Japan’s status in tsunami planning and preparation before our own “Big One” comes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tsunami planning is a complex task led by government, in concert with scientists and coastal residents. It starts by figuring out what the waves from a giant earthquake would do. Government geologists have prepared tsunami inundation maps (find them here for \u003ca href=\"http://www.quake.ca.gov/gmaps/WH/tsunamimaps.htm\">California\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://www.oregongeology.org/tsuclearinghouse/pubs-inumaps.htm\">Oregon\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/ger_tsunami_inundation_maps.pdf\">Washington\u003c/a>). Next comes looking at these maps and figuring out where people should run to reach high ground. \u003ca href=\"http://www.oregongeology.org/tsuclearinghouse/pubs-evacbro.htm\">Oregon\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.emd.wa.gov/hazards/haz_tsunami.shtml#TsunamiEvacuationMaps\">Washington\u003c/a> have done this work and prepared evacuation maps; some California cities have issued them too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many coastal towns in Cascadia have little or no high ground and would be overrun by a great tsunami. That leads to where we are today in tsunami planning—installing tsunami shelters or “\u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/09/21/up-up-and-away-escaping-a-tsunami-vertically/\">vertical evacuation sites\u003c/a>” to save lives in these places. This task goes beyond science, because local governments and citizens must participate in siting, designing and building the shelters. There are hearings, reviews and funding to be arranged. And the people must embrace the shelters, with tsunami drills and long-term support, to make them work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this essentially political process does need science. This week \u003ca href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4002\">the U.S. Geological Survey released a new mapping tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst\u003c/a>, to help tsunami shelter planners. This example for the low-lying town of Ocean Shores, Washington, shows the kind of output it creates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21733\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/tsu-evac-tool.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21733\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/tsu-evac-tool.jpg\" alt=\"Tsunami evacuation-time map\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Land types (left) and evacuation time (right) for Ocean Shores. Because the roads quickly become jammed after earthquakes and tsunami alarms, the tool assumes that people will be on foot. Cascadia tsunamis may arrive in half an hour or less (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Ocean Shores was a testing ground for the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst (a case study is reported in the current \u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914000387\">International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction\u003c/a>). Here’s a look at the challenge there, a graph comparing Ocean Shores with nearby Aberdeen. Almost all of Aberdeen is a half-hour’s walk from high ground, but in Ocean Shores the residents would reach safety in a hopeless trickle. In Ocean Shores and other places like it, well-placed tsunami shelters are a matter of life and death.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This kind of analysis can help state and county regulators set priorities. The tool also helps in picking candidate spots for shelters, in specific neighborhoods. The maps and plans can then be judged realistically by the public, either online or in formal hearings, and sound decisions can be made.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocosta School District, on the vulnerable Westport Peninsula in southern Washington, is constructing \u003ca href=\"http://washingtondnr.wordpress.com/2014/05/20/planned-ocosta-tsunami-refuge-would-provide-safe-area-for-students-staff-and-residents/\">the first large vertical evacuation tsunami refuge in this country\u003c/a>. It’s not a dramatic structure, just the roof of the school’s gym with four large stairways leading to it, but the refuge will hold over 1000 people—everyone in the school, plus room to spare for local residents—if the worst happens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The school offers another lesson: according to Timothy Walsh of the state’s geology agency, previous bond measures to replace the school had failed twice, but after the tsunami shelter was added the bond was approved by 70 to 30 percent. Tsunami preparation is not cheap and not yet deeply engrained in our culture, and the benefits may not be obvious until the day that lives are actually saved.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "California's Earthquake Early Warning System Is Ready to Get Started",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21558\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/NapaEQ-ShakeAlert.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/NapaEQ-ShakeAlert.png\" alt=\"ShakeAlert screen\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21558\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Portion of a frame from the ShakeAlert warning to the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (located at the house symbol) in the seconds after the Napa earthquake. The app shows a regional map, a quick magnitude determination (5.7), the level of expected shaking (IV) on the \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/quakemags/a/Mercalli-Earthquake-Intensity-Scale.htm\">Mercalli intensity scale\u003c/a>, and the front edge of the fast P-waves (yellow) and the slower, more dangerous S-waves (red) from the earthquake (Richard Allen/ShakeAlert)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24 was on everyone’s mind as the \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/3rd_international_conference/index.html\">Third International Conference on Earthquake Early Warning\u003c/a> convened last week in Berkeley. The meeting was a powerful show of scientific and political momentum as California prepares to lead the United States into a brave new world in which we’ll get second-by-second countdowns in advance of dangerous earthquake shaking. Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom assured the conference that the money for the early-warning system will come: “It’s a political question, not a financial question.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Early warning” is not a prediction of an earthquake, but rather an instant notification that an earthquake has started and shaking is on its way. Several nations have early-warning systems in place, and California scientists have been working on an American version on a shoestring of funding. Today they’re ready to roll with a plan based on \u003ca href=\"http://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a>, a beta-tested system that includes a smartphone app.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On August 24, an alert reached the phone of beta tester Richard Allen, head of UC Berkeley’s Seismological Laboratory. Because he was in Southern California at the time, the app awakened him at 3:20 a.m. with a series of alarm tones and a male voice calmly saying that “no shaking will arrive in approximately 200 seconds.” But at Berkeley, the app said that light shaking would arrive in 5 seconds—and so it did.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After more then two years of testing, California is ready to turn this beta into a prototype, then a rollout for a lot of people who are eager to use ShakeAlert for real—firefighters and other emergency responders, managers of large buildings and critical facilities, computer admins and earthquake geeks. Experts from other countries are eager to share their knowledge with us. All of those people were represented at the three-day conference, where they’d gathered to see and discuss the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The mechanics of ShakeAlert are ready to go. The U.S. Geological Survey, which has funded this line of research for over 20 years, published \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1097/\">Open-File Report 2014-1097\u003c/a> in May, a detailed plan to complete the system. USGS representatives explained that this plan constitutes a pledge to build it when the money, about $80 million over five years, is in hand. It will look pretty much like the beta version, although researchers will continue to refine every part of it during implementation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The benefits of even a few seconds’ warning are considerable. For instance, the BART system is already using the ShakeAlert beta. BART Director John McPartland said that if the Napa quake had occurred during service hours, railcars would have automatically slowed from 70 mph to 40 and from 30 mph to a stop, essentially eliminating the possibility of crippling derailments. Another speaker said that the cost of statewide ShakeAlert could be met by reducing economic losses less than one-half percent. Just avoiding a fraction of the inevitable building fires would suffice: this is why Japanese earthquake drills instruct people, if they have a few seconds before “drop, cover and hold,” to put out any open flames.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB135\">The state law\u003c/a> that committed California to building the early-warning system did not include funding, but state senator Alex Padilla, who sponsored that law, said that between various state accounts and contributions from federal agencies and large private companies, the money will come. \u003ca href=\"http://www.moore.org/programs/science/earthquake-early-warning-system\">Funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation\u003c/a>, which supported the ShakeAlert beta, will continue. And the federal budget for next year includes $5 million in new money for the ShakeAlert network, in both the \u003ca href=\"http://schiff.house.gov/press-releases/rep-schiff-secures-5-million-in-appropriations-bill-to-deploy-full-west-coast-earthquake-early-warning-system/\">House\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.aip.org/fyi/2014/senate-fy-2015-us-geological-survey-appropriations-bill\">Senate\u003c/a> versions, no mean achievement for today’s Congress. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The idea is for ShakeAlert to start in California and then expand, first to Oregon and Washington, then to the entire nation. At the same time, an ecosystem of businesses, from insurers to consultants, will find new ways to offer value from ShakeAlert’s output.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is a natural leader in early warning, the USGS’s Douglas Given explained, because California alone accounts for two-thirds of America’s annual earthquake losses. Yet most of the country experiences earthquakes—consider that the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Virginia_earthquake\">magnitude-5.8 Virginia earthquake of August 23, 2011\u003c/a> was felt by something like 50 million people. And the recent rash of shakers triggered by deep injection wells has turned Oklahoma into earthquake country.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early-warning experts from other countries reported their advances. In Japan, a new algorithm called PLUM (Propagation of Local Undamped Motion) will avoid the false alarms that were issued for aftershocks of the 2011 quake. Japanese researchers are also working on a special set of alarms for people in high-rise buildings, which react in outsized ways to low-frequency shaking. In Europe, a nationwide alert system has been operating in Switzerland for more than six months, and several other nations have limited systems. The alert system in Mexico, launched in 1991, has expanded beyond Mexico City to four other cities, and the \u003ca href=\"http://sarmex.com.mx/wp/\">SARMEX\u003c/a> early-warning radio network, started in 2012, uses portable radios made by San Mateo-based \u003ca href=\"http://www.athoc.com/\">AtHoc\u003c/a> that are already certified for use in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s at the scientific frontier of the field? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Napa earthquake triggered its alert in just 5.1 seconds, and the La Habra quake of March 28 triggered its alert in 4.1 seconds. Researchers are working to make this even faster, and several poster presentations addressed ways to shave the time down through better hardware, more rapid data transmission and quicker recognition of seismic events. The aim is to reduce the “blind zone” near a quake’s epicenter where today’s alarms come too late to matter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have recognized that the largest earthquakes expose weaknesses in their traditional approach, which relies on seismometer data to first determine the center and the size of an earthquake and then forecast where its energy will go. High-rate location data from GPS receivers, image-recognition techniques and quick-acting Bayesian logic are leading the next wave. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And for an example of crowdsourced approaches, we heard from UC Berkeley’s Qingkai Kong about his \u003ca href=\"http://berkeleysciencereview.com/article/shake-n-quake/\">MyShake\u003c/a> app, which turns people’s smartphones into a seismic network that could be used anywhere in the world, not just in wealthy countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I have a lot more to talk about from the meeting, so please ask your questions in the comments. Meanwhile, here are some more links worth following.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://5nf5.blogspot.com/2014/09/early-warning-device-of-earthquakes-and-other-maladies-for-everyone.html?view=magazine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UCB Astronomy (and ShakeAlert user) Prof. Joshua Bloom invents a home EEW device \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKJ0MBfIdus\">The Shakealert app in action during the Napa earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24KfBwkMw_M\">Japan’s alert system during the giant 2011 Tohoku earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3zGvs_hjdo\">Mexico’s alert system during the April 18, 2014 earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://uky.az1.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_86UyhrJ1Jwh2gtL\">Take a survey to help improve the ShakeAlert app\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "The Third International Conference on Earthquake Early Warning, held in Berkeley last week, was a revealing glimpse of our future, in which we'll get precious seconds of notice before earthquake shaking strikes our lives and buildings.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21558\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/NapaEQ-ShakeAlert.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/NapaEQ-ShakeAlert.png\" alt=\"ShakeAlert screen\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21558\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Portion of a frame from the ShakeAlert warning to the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (located at the house symbol) in the seconds after the Napa earthquake. The app shows a regional map, a quick magnitude determination (5.7), the level of expected shaking (IV) on the \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/quakemags/a/Mercalli-Earthquake-Intensity-Scale.htm\">Mercalli intensity scale\u003c/a>, and the front edge of the fast P-waves (yellow) and the slower, more dangerous S-waves (red) from the earthquake (Richard Allen/ShakeAlert)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24 was on everyone’s mind as the \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/3rd_international_conference/index.html\">Third International Conference on Earthquake Early Warning\u003c/a> convened last week in Berkeley. The meeting was a powerful show of scientific and political momentum as California prepares to lead the United States into a brave new world in which we’ll get second-by-second countdowns in advance of dangerous earthquake shaking. Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom assured the conference that the money for the early-warning system will come: “It’s a political question, not a financial question.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Early warning” is not a prediction of an earthquake, but rather an instant notification that an earthquake has started and shaking is on its way. Several nations have early-warning systems in place, and California scientists have been working on an American version on a shoestring of funding. Today they’re ready to roll with a plan based on \u003ca href=\"http://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a>, a beta-tested system that includes a smartphone app.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On August 24, an alert reached the phone of beta tester Richard Allen, head of UC Berkeley’s Seismological Laboratory. Because he was in Southern California at the time, the app awakened him at 3:20 a.m. with a series of alarm tones and a male voice calmly saying that “no shaking will arrive in approximately 200 seconds.” But at Berkeley, the app said that light shaking would arrive in 5 seconds—and so it did.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After more then two years of testing, California is ready to turn this beta into a prototype, then a rollout for a lot of people who are eager to use ShakeAlert for real—firefighters and other emergency responders, managers of large buildings and critical facilities, computer admins and earthquake geeks. Experts from other countries are eager to share their knowledge with us. All of those people were represented at the three-day conference, where they’d gathered to see and discuss the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The mechanics of ShakeAlert are ready to go. The U.S. Geological Survey, which has funded this line of research for over 20 years, published \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1097/\">Open-File Report 2014-1097\u003c/a> in May, a detailed plan to complete the system. USGS representatives explained that this plan constitutes a pledge to build it when the money, about $80 million over five years, is in hand. It will look pretty much like the beta version, although researchers will continue to refine every part of it during implementation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The benefits of even a few seconds’ warning are considerable. For instance, the BART system is already using the ShakeAlert beta. BART Director John McPartland said that if the Napa quake had occurred during service hours, railcars would have automatically slowed from 70 mph to 40 and from 30 mph to a stop, essentially eliminating the possibility of crippling derailments. Another speaker said that the cost of statewide ShakeAlert could be met by reducing economic losses less than one-half percent. Just avoiding a fraction of the inevitable building fires would suffice: this is why Japanese earthquake drills instruct people, if they have a few seconds before “drop, cover and hold,” to put out any open flames.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB135\">The state law\u003c/a> that committed California to building the early-warning system did not include funding, but state senator Alex Padilla, who sponsored that law, said that between various state accounts and contributions from federal agencies and large private companies, the money will come. \u003ca href=\"http://www.moore.org/programs/science/earthquake-early-warning-system\">Funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation\u003c/a>, which supported the ShakeAlert beta, will continue. And the federal budget for next year includes $5 million in new money for the ShakeAlert network, in both the \u003ca href=\"http://schiff.house.gov/press-releases/rep-schiff-secures-5-million-in-appropriations-bill-to-deploy-full-west-coast-earthquake-early-warning-system/\">House\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.aip.org/fyi/2014/senate-fy-2015-us-geological-survey-appropriations-bill\">Senate\u003c/a> versions, no mean achievement for today’s Congress. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The idea is for ShakeAlert to start in California and then expand, first to Oregon and Washington, then to the entire nation. At the same time, an ecosystem of businesses, from insurers to consultants, will find new ways to offer value from ShakeAlert’s output.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is a natural leader in early warning, the USGS’s Douglas Given explained, because California alone accounts for two-thirds of America’s annual earthquake losses. Yet most of the country experiences earthquakes—consider that the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Virginia_earthquake\">magnitude-5.8 Virginia earthquake of August 23, 2011\u003c/a> was felt by something like 50 million people. And the recent rash of shakers triggered by deep injection wells has turned Oklahoma into earthquake country.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early-warning experts from other countries reported their advances. In Japan, a new algorithm called PLUM (Propagation of Local Undamped Motion) will avoid the false alarms that were issued for aftershocks of the 2011 quake. Japanese researchers are also working on a special set of alarms for people in high-rise buildings, which react in outsized ways to low-frequency shaking. In Europe, a nationwide alert system has been operating in Switzerland for more than six months, and several other nations have limited systems. The alert system in Mexico, launched in 1991, has expanded beyond Mexico City to four other cities, and the \u003ca href=\"http://sarmex.com.mx/wp/\">SARMEX\u003c/a> early-warning radio network, started in 2012, uses portable radios made by San Mateo-based \u003ca href=\"http://www.athoc.com/\">AtHoc\u003c/a> that are already certified for use in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s at the scientific frontier of the field? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Napa earthquake triggered its alert in just 5.1 seconds, and the La Habra quake of March 28 triggered its alert in 4.1 seconds. Researchers are working to make this even faster, and several poster presentations addressed ways to shave the time down through better hardware, more rapid data transmission and quicker recognition of seismic events. The aim is to reduce the “blind zone” near a quake’s epicenter where today’s alarms come too late to matter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have recognized that the largest earthquakes expose weaknesses in their traditional approach, which relies on seismometer data to first determine the center and the size of an earthquake and then forecast where its energy will go. High-rate location data from GPS receivers, image-recognition techniques and quick-acting Bayesian logic are leading the next wave. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And for an example of crowdsourced approaches, we heard from UC Berkeley’s Qingkai Kong about his \u003ca href=\"http://berkeleysciencereview.com/article/shake-n-quake/\">MyShake\u003c/a> app, which turns people’s smartphones into a seismic network that could be used anywhere in the world, not just in wealthy countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I have a lot more to talk about from the meeting, so please ask your questions in the comments. Meanwhile, here are some more links worth following.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://5nf5.blogspot.com/2014/09/early-warning-device-of-earthquakes-and-other-maladies-for-everyone.html?view=magazine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UCB Astronomy (and ShakeAlert user) Prof. Joshua Bloom invents a home EEW device \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKJ0MBfIdus\">The Shakealert app in action during the Napa earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24KfBwkMw_M\">Japan’s alert system during the giant 2011 Tohoku earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3zGvs_hjdo\">Mexico’s alert system during the April 18, 2014 earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21404\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/stateofhealth/wp-content/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-21404\" title=\"\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/stateofhealth/wp-content/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf.jpg\" alt=\"The magnitude-6.0 earthquake struck Aug. 24. (Craig Miller/KQED)\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf-400x300.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf-320x240.jpg 320w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The magnitude-6.0 earthquake struck Aug. 24. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A 65-year-old woman who suffered a head injury when a television struck her during last month's earthquake in California's wine country has died — the first death attributed to the magnitude-6.0 quake, sheriff's officials said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Laurie Anne Thompson was at her Napa home during the Aug. 24 earthquake when she was hit, according to the Napa County Sheriff's Office. She did not go to the hospital until the next day when she felt dizzy and experienced a decline in mental function.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sheriff's officials said she died Friday at a hospital of an intracranial hemorrhage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Her condition continued to deteriorate over time and, unfortunately, she passed away,\" Sheriff's Capt. Doug Pike said.\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The earthquake has not claimed any other lives, but left scores of people injured, among them a 13-year-old boy who broke his pelvis in several places when part of a chimney collapsed on him.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It was the strongest quake to hit the San Francisco Bay area since a magnitude-6.9 quake in 1989.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The quake was centered near the city of Napa and broke water mains and gas lines and sparked gas-fed fires that destroyed several mobile homes. The worst damage and disruption was confined to downtown Napa, where a post office, library and a 141-room hotel were among 150 homes and buildings deemed unsafe to occupy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21404\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/stateofhealth/wp-content/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-21404\" title=\"\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/stateofhealth/wp-content/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf.jpg\" alt=\"The magnitude-6.0 earthquake struck Aug. 24. (Craig Miller/KQED)\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf-400x300.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/27/2014/09/RS11826_photo-1-hpf-320x240.jpg 320w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The magnitude-6.0 earthquake struck Aug. 24. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A 65-year-old woman who suffered a head injury when a television struck her during last month's earthquake in California's wine country has died — the first death attributed to the magnitude-6.0 quake, sheriff's officials said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Laurie Anne Thompson was at her Napa home during the Aug. 24 earthquake when she was hit, according to the Napa County Sheriff's Office. She did not go to the hospital until the next day when she felt dizzy and experienced a decline in mental function.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sheriff's officials said she died Friday at a hospital of an intracranial hemorrhage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Her condition continued to deteriorate over time and, unfortunately, she passed away,\" Sheriff's Capt. Doug Pike said.\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The earthquake has not claimed any other lives, but left scores of people injured, among them a 13-year-old boy who broke his pelvis in several places when part of a chimney collapsed on him.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
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"mindshift": {
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"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
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"order": 12
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"onourwatch": {
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"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
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"tagline": "Politics from a personal perspective",
"info": "Political Breakdown is a new series that explores the political intersection of California and the nation. Each week hosts Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos are joined with a new special guest to unpack politics -- with personality — and offer an insider’s glimpse at how politics happens.",
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"possible": {
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"title": "Possible",
"info": "Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.possible.fm/",
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"source": "Possible"
},
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"pri-the-world": {
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"title": "PRI's The World: Latest Edition",
"info": "Each weekday, host Marco Werman and his team of producers bring you the world's most interesting stories in an hour of radio that reminds us just how small our planet really is.",
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"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-World-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
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},
"radiolab": {
"id": "radiolab",
"title": "Radiolab",
"info": "A two-time Peabody Award-winner, Radiolab is an investigation told through sounds and stories, and centered around one big idea. In the Radiolab world, information sounds like music and science and culture collide. Hosted by Jad Abumrad and Robert Krulwich, the show is designed for listeners who demand skepticism, but appreciate wonder. WNYC Studios is the producer of other leading podcasts including Freakonomics Radio, Death, Sex & Money, On the Media and many more.",
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},
"reveal": {
"id": "reveal",
"title": "Reveal",
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