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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Days after Anthropic’s offices closed due to a “possible strike” by security workers, union representatives said they are ready to “take any action necessary” to secure a fair contract. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Though the union representing some security officers has not authorized any action at this time, Anthropic, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/san-francisco\">San Francisco\u003c/a>-based artificial intelligence giant, asked its employees to work from home earlier this week, after a heads-up about ongoing negotiations from Allied Universal, an international security firm that works with the tech company. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Clearly Anthropic understands how indispensable security workers are, even if the companies bargaining with them don’t,” David Huerta, president of Service Employees International Union — United Service Workers West, told KQED on Thursday. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The union’s current \u003ca href=\"https://www.seiu-usww.org/contract/san-francisco-bay-area-master-2022-26/\">contract\u003c/a> with Allied Universal, and seven other private firms, expired on June 30. They’ve been negotiating a new contract for months, but after 19 bargaining sessions, Huerta said that the company’s current offer — a 25-cent-an-hour raise with no raises for the next three years — is “shameful, wrong and deeply, deeply disrespectful.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>At an \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12080245/northern-california-security-officers-campaign-for-better-wages-training\">April\u003c/a> rally in San Francisco, union security workers described struggling with the cost of living in the Bay Area, needing better benefits and wanting more training. They also detailed the mental and physical toll it takes to be the first line of defense in crises. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There are currently over 330,000 private security guards in California compared to 90,000 badged police officers, Huerta said in April. Security guards currently make significantly less than police officers — earning a \u003ca href=\"https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes339032.ht\">$21.61\u003c/a> annual mean wage compared to \u003ca href=\"https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes333051.htm\">$53.74\u003c/a> for police officers in 2023. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Allied Universal, which employs 770,000 people globally, told KQED that they could not comment on ongoing labor negotiations. The company’s website said that it partners with more than 400 Fortune 500 companies. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Security officers protect the people and property of some of the wealthiest and most powerful companies in the world,” Huerta said. “We invite workers at Anthropic and elsewhere to consider who will protect them if security officers can’t afford to live here.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s \u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/shossaini\">\u003cem>Sara Hossaini\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem> contributed to this report.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>More than a hundred registered nurses in red union T-shirts blocked traffic and chanted outside \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101864924/a-deeper-look-into-palantir-technologies\">Palantir’s\u003c/a> former headquarters in Palo Alto on Thursday, calling on hospital executives and elected officials to cut ties with the artificial intelligence software and data analytics giant. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>National Nurses United, which held similar protests in Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, D.C. and four other cities, said the demonstrations were the union’s largest to date against Palantir, now based in the Miami area. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Nurses are worried that the company, which has won lucrative but controversial contracts with federal defense and immigration enforcement agencies, is expanding into healthcare.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Hospital executives at HCA Healthcare, one of the largest for-profit hospital operators in the U.S., have introduced Palantir’s AI-powered tools for nurse staffing and scheduling. New York’s Mount Sinai Health System uses the company’s products to evaluate patient records and determine which ones are eligible for at-home care, according to Palantir’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.palantir.com/offerings/palantir-for-hospitals/\">website\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1500\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-03-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12097137\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-03-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-03-KQED-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-03-KQED-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nurses place Band-Aids over photos of notes written by children detained by U.S. immigration agents at a protest against intelligence giant Palantir in Palo Alto on Aug. 27, 2026. (Courtesy of National Nurses United)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Craig Cedotal, a pediatric nurse at Kaiser Oakland who previously worked at an HCA hospital in New Orleans, said nurses want more transparency and a greater say in the use of AI in hospitals, including Palantir’s platforms.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s affecting staffing decisions and care decisions in ways that are not in line with what healthcare should be,” said Cedotal, one of the protesters in Palo Alto. “A machine should not make decisions about how we take care of each other. That is not good healthcare.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Palantir did not respond to a request for comment. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In a \u003ca href=\"https://www.palantir.com/q2-2026-letter/en/\">letter to\u003c/a> shareholders this month, CEO Alex Karp said the company’s business has nearly doubled in a span of 12 months. Palantir earned nearly \u003ca href=\"https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2026/Palantir-Reports-Q2-2026-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Growth-of-149-YY-and-Revenue-Growth-of-93-YY-Raises-FY-2026-Revenue-Guidance-to-82-YY-Growth-and-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Guidance-to-134-YY-Crushing-Consensus-Expectations/\">$2 billion\u003c/a> in net income, after expenses, during the first half of this year. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The core of our business, in the United States, continues to expand at an unrelenting and breakneck pace,” Karp said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>On Thursday, California lawmakers approved a bill sponsored by the California Nurses Association that would establish some guardrails in the deployment of AI in patient care. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org/bills/ca_202520260ab1979\">bill\u003c/a>, by Assemblymember Mia Bonta, D-Oakland, would prohibit a health facility or doctor’s office from using an AI tool to perform any function that requires a professional license. Gov. Gavin Newsom is considering the proposed legislation.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Cedotal said that nurses at HCA hospitals have found the new automated staffing platform disruptive, with scheduling not always matching the needs of the day. The union contends the technology is exacerbating an understaffing crisis in the healthcare industry.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The major concern is that humans are not involved in the equation,” said Cedotal, who has worked as a nurse for 32 years. The software “recommendations usually end up being something unfavorable for staffing or the nurses or patient care in general, or all three together.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1500\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12097138\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nurses block the street in Palo Alto outside the headquarters of artificial intelligence giant Palantir on Aug. 27, 2026. The actions cited the “deadly costs” of Palantir’s products, including its development and operation of ELITE, an application used by federal agents that identifies people for arrest using, in part, Medicaid data. (Courtesy of National Nurses United)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.hcahealthcare.com/about\">HCA Healthcare\u003c/a>, which operates about 190 hospitals in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, did not respond to a request for comment. Good Samaritan Hospital in San José is affiliated with the company.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>National Nurses United, which represents more than 225,000 members nationwide with affiliates like the California Nurses Association, is getting ready to begin contract negotiations with HCA, Kaiser Permanente and other major employers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>At the protest Thursday, the union joined community groups in criticizing Palantir for profiting from the Trump administration’s push to arrest and deport thousands of immigrants, and working with Israel’s Ministry of Defense to support its war in Gaza.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Their technology has enabled the systematic destruction of hospitals, the killing of hundreds of healthcare workers, and the collapse of Gaza’s most vital infrastructure, how can we in good conscience place that same technology at the heart of U.S. healthcare facilities?” said Aisha Nizar with the Palestinian Youth Movement, in a statement. “Our message for the Bay Area is clear: Protect patients, stop fueling genocide, and cut ties with Palantir immediately.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Nurses are worried that the company, which has won lucrative but controversial contracts with federal defense and immigration enforcement agencies, is expanding into healthcare.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Hospital executives at HCA Healthcare, one of the largest for-profit hospital operators in the U.S., have introduced Palantir’s AI-powered tools for nurse staffing and scheduling. New York’s Mount Sinai Health System uses the company’s products to evaluate patient records and determine which ones are eligible for at-home care, according to Palantir’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.palantir.com/offerings/palantir-for-hospitals/\">website\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In a \u003ca href=\"https://www.palantir.com/q2-2026-letter/en/\">letter to\u003c/a> shareholders this month, CEO Alex Karp said the company’s business has nearly doubled in a span of 12 months. Palantir earned nearly \u003ca href=\"https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2026/Palantir-Reports-Q2-2026-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Growth-of-149-YY-and-Revenue-Growth-of-93-YY-Raises-FY-2026-Revenue-Guidance-to-82-YY-Growth-and-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Guidance-to-134-YY-Crushing-Consensus-Expectations/\">$2 billion\u003c/a> in net income, after expenses, during the first half of this year. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Cedotal said that nurses at HCA hospitals have found the new automated staffing platform disruptive, with scheduling not always matching the needs of the day. The union contends the technology is exacerbating an understaffing crisis in the healthcare industry.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The major concern is that humans are not involved in the equation,” said Cedotal, who has worked as a nurse for 32 years. The software “recommendations usually end up being something unfavorable for staffing or the nurses or patient care in general, or all three together.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12097138\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nurses block the street in Palo Alto outside the headquarters of artificial intelligence giant Palantir on Aug. 27, 2026. The actions cited the “deadly costs” of Palantir’s products, including its development and operation of ELITE, an application used by federal agents that identifies people for arrest using, in part, Medicaid data.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of National Nurses United)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>At the protest Thursday, the union joined community groups in criticizing Palantir for profiting from the Trump administration’s push to arrest and deport thousands of immigrants, and working with Israel’s Ministry of Defense to support its war in Gaza.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Their technology has enabled the systematic destruction of hospitals, the killing of hundreds of healthcare workers, and the collapse of Gaza’s most vital infrastructure, how can we in good conscience place that same technology at the heart of U.S. healthcare facilities?” said Aisha Nizar with the Palestinian Youth Movement, in a statement. “Our message for the Bay Area is clear: Protect patients, stop fueling genocide, and cut ties with Palantir immediately.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Nurses held protests in Palo Alto, Los Angeles and six other cities, calling on hospitals and elected officials to cut ties with the AI software and data analytics company.",
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"title": "Bay Area Nurses Protest Use of Palantir’s AI Tech at Hospitals | KQED",
"description": "Nurses held protests in Palo Alto, Los Angeles and six other cities, calling on hospitals and elected officials to cut ties with the AI software and data analytics company.",
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"headline": "Bay Area Nurses Protest Use of Palantir’s AI Tech at Hospitals",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>More than a hundred registered nurses in red union T-shirts blocked traffic and chanted outside \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101864924/a-deeper-look-into-palantir-technologies\">Palantir’s\u003c/a> former headquarters in Palo Alto on Thursday, calling on hospital executives and elected officials to cut ties with the artificial intelligence software and data analytics giant. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>National Nurses United, which held similar protests in Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, D.C. and four other cities, said the demonstrations were the union’s largest to date against Palantir, now based in the Miami area. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Nurses are worried that the company, which has won lucrative but controversial contracts with federal defense and immigration enforcement agencies, is expanding into healthcare.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Hospital executives at HCA Healthcare, one of the largest for-profit hospital operators in the U.S., have introduced Palantir’s AI-powered tools for nurse staffing and scheduling. New York’s Mount Sinai Health System uses the company’s products to evaluate patient records and determine which ones are eligible for at-home care, according to Palantir’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.palantir.com/offerings/palantir-for-hospitals/\">website\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1500\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-03-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12097137\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-03-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-03-KQED-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-03-KQED-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nurses place Band-Aids over photos of notes written by children detained by U.S. immigration agents at a protest against intelligence giant Palantir in Palo Alto on Aug. 27, 2026. (Courtesy of National Nurses United)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Craig Cedotal, a pediatric nurse at Kaiser Oakland who previously worked at an HCA hospital in New Orleans, said nurses want more transparency and a greater say in the use of AI in hospitals, including Palantir’s platforms.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s affecting staffing decisions and care decisions in ways that are not in line with what healthcare should be,” said Cedotal, one of the protesters in Palo Alto. “A machine should not make decisions about how we take care of each other. That is not good healthcare.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Palantir did not respond to a request for comment. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In a \u003ca href=\"https://www.palantir.com/q2-2026-letter/en/\">letter to\u003c/a> shareholders this month, CEO Alex Karp said the company’s business has nearly doubled in a span of 12 months. Palantir earned nearly \u003ca href=\"https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2026/Palantir-Reports-Q2-2026-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Growth-of-149-YY-and-Revenue-Growth-of-93-YY-Raises-FY-2026-Revenue-Guidance-to-82-YY-Growth-and-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Guidance-to-134-YY-Crushing-Consensus-Expectations/\">$2 billion\u003c/a> in net income, after expenses, during the first half of this year. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The core of our business, in the United States, continues to expand at an unrelenting and breakneck pace,” Karp said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>On Thursday, California lawmakers approved a bill sponsored by the California Nurses Association that would establish some guardrails in the deployment of AI in patient care. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org/bills/ca_202520260ab1979\">bill\u003c/a>, by Assemblymember Mia Bonta, D-Oakland, would prohibit a health facility or doctor’s office from using an AI tool to perform any function that requires a professional license. Gov. Gavin Newsom is considering the proposed legislation.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Cedotal said that nurses at HCA hospitals have found the new automated staffing platform disruptive, with scheduling not always matching the needs of the day. The union contends the technology is exacerbating an understaffing crisis in the healthcare industry.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The major concern is that humans are not involved in the equation,” said Cedotal, who has worked as a nurse for 32 years. The software “recommendations usually end up being something unfavorable for staffing or the nurses or patient care in general, or all three together.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1500\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12097138\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260827-Palantir-Nurses-04-KQED-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nurses block the street in Palo Alto outside the headquarters of artificial intelligence giant Palantir on Aug. 27, 2026. The actions cited the “deadly costs” of Palantir’s products, including its development and operation of ELITE, an application used by federal agents that identifies people for arrest using, in part, Medicaid data. (Courtesy of National Nurses United)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.hcahealthcare.com/about\">HCA Healthcare\u003c/a>, which operates about 190 hospitals in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, did not respond to a request for comment. Good Samaritan Hospital in San José is affiliated with the company.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>National Nurses United, which represents more than 225,000 members nationwide with affiliates like the California Nurses Association, is getting ready to begin contract negotiations with HCA, Kaiser Permanente and other major employers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>At the protest Thursday, the union joined community groups in criticizing Palantir for profiting from the Trump administration’s push to arrest and deport thousands of immigrants, and working with Israel’s Ministry of Defense to support its war in Gaza.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Their technology has enabled the systematic destruction of hospitals, the killing of hundreds of healthcare workers, and the collapse of Gaza’s most vital infrastructure, how can we in good conscience place that same technology at the heart of U.S. healthcare facilities?” said Aisha Nizar with the Palestinian Youth Movement, in a statement. “Our message for the Bay Area is clear: Protect patients, stop fueling genocide, and cut ties with Palantir immediately.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "trump-administration-nixes-longstanding-deal-to-help-investigate-labor-abuses",
"title": "Trump Administration Nixes Longstanding Deal to Help Investigate Labor Abuses",
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"content": "\u003cp>The Trump administration has ended a longstanding agreement that kept immigration authorities largely out of workplaces that the U.S. Department of Labor was actively investigating for potential abuses, KQED has learned. The move, the latest in a federal rollback of immigrant worker protections, could further undermine efforts to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12081923/california-wage-theft-law-needs-more-enforcement-muscle-advocates-say\">uphold minimum wage\u003c/a>, child labor and other laws covering most employees regardless of immigration status, according to worker advocates. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The government has long recognized that non-citizens living in the U.S. without permanent legal status are less likely to complain about wage theft or unsafe job conditions if they fear their employer will retaliate by reporting them to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). That understanding prompted the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees ICE, and the Labor Department \u003ca href=\"https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OASP/DHS-DOL-MOU_4.19.18.pdf\">to agree\u003c/a> more than a decade ago to essentially separate their enforcement activities and share information to combat abusive employment practices. The goal was to avoid jeopardizing pending labor cases, which often require speaking with witnesses. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This agreement served as an important, if imperfect, backstop to say employers can’t use ICE as a weapon to protect their labor violations,” said Josh Rosenthal, who directs the workers’ rights program at the Asian Law Caucus in San Francisco. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-scaled.jpg\" alt='A man wearing a white-brimmed hat that says \"Mexico\" embraces three children and a woman outside in front of a red van.' class=\"wp-image-12047862\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-2000x1333.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People embrace outside of Glass House Farms, a day after an immigration raid on the facility, on July 11, 2025, in Camarillo, California. (Damian Dovarganes/The Associated Press)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There have been instances where, especially before this agreement, an employer would call ICE in the middle of a labor investigation and get all of the workers who had complained arrested or otherwise create trouble for their immigration situation,” he said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Under the deal between the two federal agencies, first signed in December 2011 during President Barack Obama’s first term, ICE committed to refrain from auditing or making arrests at businesses that were the subject of existing labor probes, with some exceptions. Federal labor regulators have told workers for years that they have the right to minimum wage, safe job sites and other safeguards, no matter their citizenship status.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The memorandum of understanding “concerning enforcement activities at worksites” was later \u003ca href=\"https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OASP/MOU-Addendum_4.19.18.pdf\">expanded in 2016\u003c/a> to include the National Labor Relations Board and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, agencies tasked with protecting employees’ rights to unionize and be free from discrimination. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the agreement has quietly been terminated, a Labor Department spokesperson confirmed to KQED. They declined to answer follow-up questions about when the change took place and why. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Until last week, several employment attorneys in California, as well as former federal labor officials, doubted the worksite enforcement deal was still being vigorously enforced, but believed the administration had not officially rescinded it. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"733\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12013823\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018.jpg 1024w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018-800x573.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018-1020x730.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018-160x115.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Workers fill food orders at a Chipotle restaurant on April 1, 2024, in San Rafael. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The referenced MOU is not currently in effect,” the spokesperson wrote in an email. “The Department of Labor enforces the Fair Labor Standards Act and other federal labor laws for all employees and employers covered by such laws.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>DHS did not respond to a request for comment.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The shift comes as reports of employers threatening workers with ICE arrest — in what worker advocates say is an attempt to chill complaints — have risen in California, according to legal aid groups and worker organizations. At the same time, workers are taking these threats more seriously, given the Trump administration’s intensified immigration enforcement, including by conducting worksite raids that were previously rare. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Retaliation is unlawful under state and federal laws. California lawmakers are advancing \u003ca href=\"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260AB2495\">a bill\u003c/a> that would clarify that it is also illegal to threaten employees with immigration consequences to dissuade them from exercising their rights. Employers could be liable for up to $10,000 in civil penalties per violation. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The Biden administration went a step further by offering temporary protection from deportation and work authorization to people who came forward to report labor violations and cooperated with investigations, through the \u003ca href=\"https://www.uscis.gov/archive/dhs-support-of-the-enforcement-of-labor-and-employment-laws\">Deferred Action for Labor Enforcement\u003c/a> program, launched in 2023. But that program was rescinded shortly after President Donald Trump took office in 2025.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Paul DeCamp, who led the Labor Department’s wage and hour division from 2006 to 2007 during the George W. Bush administration, said he wasn’t surprised by the termination of the worksite enforcement deal.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Given the current administration’s heavy emphasis on immigration enforcement, I think that the MOU was seen in some respects as holding back a bit on immigration enforcement. The writing was on the wall,” said DeCamp, who represents employers with the firm Epstein, Becker, Green in Washington, D.C. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The immigration laws are, in some respects, in tension with the labor laws in terms of how they play out for the workers. It is difficult to enforce one vigorously without causing some damage on the other front,” he said. “What we see now is a prioritization that emphasizes immigration enforcement, even if that does come at some increased risk with respect to the wage and hour enforcement.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In California, employees can report immigration-related threats by employers to the state’s Labor Commissioner’s Office, which also investigates allegations of wage theft. But other states that rely more on the federal government to protect worker rights, such as Tennessee and Texas, could feel a bigger impact, Rosenthal, with the Asian Law Caucus, said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When immigrant workers are protected under our workplace laws, everyone is protected because it keeps bad actors from exploiting vulnerable workers on the basis of their immigration status,” he said. “The administration is weakening the rights of all workers. U.S. Citizens, green card holders and others.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The Trump administration has ended a longstanding agreement that kept immigration authorities largely out of workplaces that the U.S. Department of Labor was actively investigating for potential abuses, KQED has learned. The move, the latest in a federal rollback of immigrant worker protections, could further undermine efforts to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12081923/california-wage-theft-law-needs-more-enforcement-muscle-advocates-say\">uphold minimum wage\u003c/a>, child labor and other laws covering most employees regardless of immigration status, according to worker advocates. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The government has long recognized that non-citizens living in the U.S. without permanent legal status are less likely to complain about wage theft or unsafe job conditions if they fear their employer will retaliate by reporting them to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). That understanding prompted the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees ICE, and the Labor Department \u003ca href=\"https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OASP/DHS-DOL-MOU_4.19.18.pdf\">to agree\u003c/a> more than a decade ago to essentially separate their enforcement activities and share information to combat abusive employment practices. The goal was to avoid jeopardizing pending labor cases, which often require speaking with witnesses. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The memorandum of understanding “concerning enforcement activities at worksites” was later \u003ca href=\"https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OASP/MOU-Addendum_4.19.18.pdf\">expanded in 2016\u003c/a> to include the National Labor Relations Board and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, agencies tasked with protecting employees’ rights to unionize and be free from discrimination. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But the agreement has quietly been terminated, a Labor Department spokesperson confirmed to KQED. They declined to answer follow-up questions about when the change took place and why. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Until last week, several employment attorneys in California, as well as former federal labor officials, doubted the worksite enforcement deal was still being vigorously enforced, but believed the administration had not officially rescinded it. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The referenced MOU is not currently in effect,” the spokesperson wrote in an email. “The Department of Labor enforces the Fair Labor Standards Act and other federal labor laws for all employees and employers covered by such laws.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The shift comes as reports of employers threatening workers with ICE arrest — in what worker advocates say is an attempt to chill complaints — have risen in California, according to legal aid groups and worker organizations. At the same time, workers are taking these threats more seriously, given the Trump administration’s intensified immigration enforcement, including by conducting worksite raids that were previously rare. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The Biden administration went a step further by offering temporary protection from deportation and work authorization to people who came forward to report labor violations and cooperated with investigations, through the \u003ca href=\"https://www.uscis.gov/archive/dhs-support-of-the-enforcement-of-labor-and-employment-laws\">Deferred Action for Labor Enforcement\u003c/a> program, launched in 2023. But that program was rescinded shortly after President Donald Trump took office in 2025.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Paul DeCamp, who led the Labor Department’s wage and hour division from 2006 to 2007 during the George W. Bush administration, said he wasn’t surprised by the termination of the worksite enforcement deal.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In California, employees can report immigration-related threats by employers to the state’s Labor Commissioner’s Office, which also investigates allegations of wage theft. But other states that rely more on the federal government to protect worker rights, such as Tennessee and Texas, could feel a bigger impact, Rosenthal, with the Asian Law Caucus, said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“When immigrant workers are protected under our workplace laws, everyone is protected because it keeps bad actors from exploiting vulnerable workers on the basis of their immigration status,” he said. “The administration is weakening the rights of all workers. U.S. Citizens, green card holders and others.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "The formal agreement between federal labor and immigration authorities, in place since 2011, aimed to encourage non-citizen workers to speak up about wage theft and other potential problems.",
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"title": "Trump Administration Nixes Longstanding Deal to Help Investigate Labor Abuses | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The Trump administration has ended a longstanding agreement that kept immigration authorities largely out of workplaces that the U.S. Department of Labor was actively investigating for potential abuses, KQED has learned. The move, the latest in a federal rollback of immigrant worker protections, could further undermine efforts to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12081923/california-wage-theft-law-needs-more-enforcement-muscle-advocates-say\">uphold minimum wage\u003c/a>, child labor and other laws covering most employees regardless of immigration status, according to worker advocates. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The government has long recognized that non-citizens living in the U.S. without permanent legal status are less likely to complain about wage theft or unsafe job conditions if they fear their employer will retaliate by reporting them to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). That understanding prompted the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees ICE, and the Labor Department \u003ca href=\"https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OASP/DHS-DOL-MOU_4.19.18.pdf\">to agree\u003c/a> more than a decade ago to essentially separate their enforcement activities and share information to combat abusive employment practices. The goal was to avoid jeopardizing pending labor cases, which often require speaking with witnesses. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This agreement served as an important, if imperfect, backstop to say employers can’t use ICE as a weapon to protect their labor violations,” said Josh Rosenthal, who directs the workers’ rights program at the Asian Law Caucus in San Francisco. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-scaled.jpg\" alt='A man wearing a white-brimmed hat that says \"Mexico\" embraces three children and a woman outside in front of a red van.' class=\"wp-image-12047862\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-2000x1333.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/07/AP25192726071193-1-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People embrace outside of Glass House Farms, a day after an immigration raid on the facility, on July 11, 2025, in Camarillo, California. (Damian Dovarganes/The Associated Press)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There have been instances where, especially before this agreement, an employer would call ICE in the middle of a labor investigation and get all of the workers who had complained arrested or otherwise create trouble for their immigration situation,” he said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Under the deal between the two federal agencies, first signed in December 2011 during President Barack Obama’s first term, ICE committed to refrain from auditing or making arrests at businesses that were the subject of existing labor probes, with some exceptions. Federal labor regulators have told workers for years that they have the right to minimum wage, safe job sites and other safeguards, no matter their citizenship status.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The memorandum of understanding “concerning enforcement activities at worksites” was later \u003ca href=\"https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OASP/MOU-Addendum_4.19.18.pdf\">expanded in 2016\u003c/a> to include the National Labor Relations Board and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, agencies tasked with protecting employees’ rights to unionize and be free from discrimination. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the agreement has quietly been terminated, a Labor Department spokesperson confirmed to KQED. They declined to answer follow-up questions about when the change took place and why. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Until last week, several employment attorneys in California, as well as former federal labor officials, doubted the worksite enforcement deal was still being vigorously enforced, but believed the administration had not officially rescinded it. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"733\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12013823\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018.jpg 1024w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018-800x573.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018-1020x730.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/11/GettyImages-2130942018-160x115.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Workers fill food orders at a Chipotle restaurant on April 1, 2024, in San Rafael. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The referenced MOU is not currently in effect,” the spokesperson wrote in an email. “The Department of Labor enforces the Fair Labor Standards Act and other federal labor laws for all employees and employers covered by such laws.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>DHS did not respond to a request for comment.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The shift comes as reports of employers threatening workers with ICE arrest — in what worker advocates say is an attempt to chill complaints — have risen in California, according to legal aid groups and worker organizations. At the same time, workers are taking these threats more seriously, given the Trump administration’s intensified immigration enforcement, including by conducting worksite raids that were previously rare. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Retaliation is unlawful under state and federal laws. California lawmakers are advancing \u003ca href=\"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260AB2495\">a bill\u003c/a> that would clarify that it is also illegal to threaten employees with immigration consequences to dissuade them from exercising their rights. Employers could be liable for up to $10,000 in civil penalties per violation. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The Biden administration went a step further by offering temporary protection from deportation and work authorization to people who came forward to report labor violations and cooperated with investigations, through the \u003ca href=\"https://www.uscis.gov/archive/dhs-support-of-the-enforcement-of-labor-and-employment-laws\">Deferred Action for Labor Enforcement\u003c/a> program, launched in 2023. But that program was rescinded shortly after President Donald Trump took office in 2025.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Paul DeCamp, who led the Labor Department’s wage and hour division from 2006 to 2007 during the George W. Bush administration, said he wasn’t surprised by the termination of the worksite enforcement deal.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Given the current administration’s heavy emphasis on immigration enforcement, I think that the MOU was seen in some respects as holding back a bit on immigration enforcement. The writing was on the wall,” said DeCamp, who represents employers with the firm Epstein, Becker, Green in Washington, D.C. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The immigration laws are, in some respects, in tension with the labor laws in terms of how they play out for the workers. It is difficult to enforce one vigorously without causing some damage on the other front,” he said. “What we see now is a prioritization that emphasizes immigration enforcement, even if that does come at some increased risk with respect to the wage and hour enforcement.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In California, employees can report immigration-related threats by employers to the state’s Labor Commissioner’s Office, which also investigates allegations of wage theft. But other states that rely more on the federal government to protect worker rights, such as Tennessee and Texas, could feel a bigger impact, Rosenthal, with the Asian Law Caucus, said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When immigrant workers are protected under our workplace laws, everyone is protected because it keeps bad actors from exploiting vulnerable workers on the basis of their immigration status,” he said. “The administration is weakening the rights of all workers. U.S. Citizens, green card holders and others.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Thousands of San José city workers on Monday moved one step closer to a historic work stoppage by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12094427/san-jose-strike-vote-this-week-could-set-up-a-major-work-stoppage\">authorizing a strike\u003c/a> that could put librarians, parks workers and other municipal employees on the picket line. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Members of two unions, IFPTE Local 21 and MEF-AFSCME Local 101, overwhelmingly approved a strike authorization vote giving union leaders the power to order a work stoppage of up to three days. The move comes after \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12089834/san-jose-at-a-stalemate-with-its-largest-city-employee-union\">months of gridlock\u003c/a> between city leaders who argue San José is strapped for cash and workers who are demanding better pay. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The biggest thing is wages,” said Hannah Ornellas, an environmental services specialist who manages trash and recycling in the city. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1386\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-4-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12093641\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-4-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-4-KQED-160x111.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-4-KQED-1536x1064.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kyle Wong, associate transportation specialist for the Department of Transportation, poses for a photo in San José on July 29, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During her four-year tenure, Ornellas said she’s seen massive attrition as coworkers leave for better-paying jurisdictions. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The loss of institutional knowledge is just really great,” she said. “And every year with new staff, we just have to spend so much time training new staff on all of these annual processes.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A potential work stoppage by the two unions, which collectively represent as many as 4,500 workers, would be San José’s largest since 1981. City officials have been preparing contingency plans. Just three years ago, the same unions came to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11958216/san-jose-city-worker-strike-on-hold-after-agreement\">brink of a strike\u003c/a> before reaching an agreement with the city on raises. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now, the city’s fiscal outlook is much worse, said Aram Kouyoumdjian, San José’s director of human resources and employee relations. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In 2023, the council approved a budget with a $35 million surplus. The budget approved in June closed a $50 million shortfall in the current fiscal year, and another deficit is expected next year. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>While department directors are preparing for the “serious possibility” of a work stoppage, Kouyoumdjian said, “We are endeavoring to mitigate or prevent a strike in whatever way that we can while remaining responsible stewards of the public’s money.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Before selecting the dates of a potential strike, the two unions have requested a process known as fact-finding. A three-person panel, facilitated by the California Public Employment Relations Board, will review the offers made by the two sides and issue non-binding recommendations. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The most recent public proposals show workers with the unions are asking for a 14% wage increase over three years, while the city has offered a 9% hike over that same time period. But Kouyoumdjian said the city is open to offering greater wage hikes that would be triggered if the budget situation improves.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The strike would not affect garbage and recycling services, which separate contractors provide. Depending on the length of a work stoppage and participation levels, library hours, permit wait times and operations at San José Mineta International Airport could be affected to varying degrees. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not something that we take lightly,” Ornellas said.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Thousands of San José city workers on Monday moved one step closer to a historic work stoppage by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12094427/san-jose-strike-vote-this-week-could-set-up-a-major-work-stoppage\">authorizing a strike\u003c/a> that could put librarians, parks workers and other municipal employees on the picket line. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Members of two unions, IFPTE Local 21 and MEF-AFSCME Local 101, overwhelmingly approved a strike authorization vote giving union leaders the power to order a work stoppage of up to three days. The move comes after \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12089834/san-jose-at-a-stalemate-with-its-largest-city-employee-union\">months of gridlock\u003c/a> between city leaders who argue San José is strapped for cash and workers who are demanding better pay. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The biggest thing is wages,” said Hannah Ornellas, an environmental services specialist who manages trash and recycling in the city. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1386\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-4-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12093641\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-4-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-4-KQED-160x111.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-4-KQED-1536x1064.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kyle Wong, associate transportation specialist for the Department of Transportation, poses for a photo in San José on July 29, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During her four-year tenure, Ornellas said she’s seen massive attrition as coworkers leave for better-paying jurisdictions. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The loss of institutional knowledge is just really great,” she said. “And every year with new staff, we just have to spend so much time training new staff on all of these annual processes.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>AI is advancing at a breakneck pace, but how quickly will that \u003cstrong>actually\u003c/strong> transform the economy? Dream Machines hosts Alexis Madrigal and Robin Sloan talk to Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson about what the data can tell us so far, why previous technological revolutions took decades to reshape everyday life, and whether this time will be different. They discuss early signs that AI may already be affecting young workers, what happens to the career ladder when machines take over junior tasks, and where the biggest challenges — and opportunities — lie.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Guest: Erik Brynjolfsson, economist and Director of the \u003ca href=\"https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/\">Stanford Digital Economy Lab\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-embed is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube\">\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps://youtu.be/5HI0RBP-jDk\n\u003c/div>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>Episode transcript\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is a computer-generated transcript. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:00:00 – 00:00:06:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Is this a kind of technology that inherently leads to higher concentrations of wealth and therefore a power?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>00:00:06:14 – 00:00:12:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> I don’t want to say inherently, because I don’t want to be in the prediction business, I want to be in the design business. But there’s a lot of strong forces,the AI itself tends to work better at large scale. That’s why they’re raising hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars. You make the model bigger and it works better. So they said, let’s make it even bigger. And it just keeps working. So that tends to lead to kind of a bit of a winner take most outcome.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:31:16 – 00:00:39:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: I’m Alexis Madrigal,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin\u003c/strong>: I’m Robin Sloan, and this is Dream Machines. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>It’s a podcast about how AI works, also about how it feels.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:39:14 – 00:00:49:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And of course, we make it right here in San Francisco, where it’s all happening. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>And nobody really disagrees at this point that AI is going to transform the economy in some way. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:49:16 – 00:00:54:23\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But one of the questions that is still really open and hotly debated is how fast that is going to happen.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:55:01 – 00:01:12:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And also the question of how would we know that it’s being transformed? You certainly read a lot of headlines and see a lot of stock prices go up. But like what’s actually happening out there in offices?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Do we have the economic data that we need to make sense? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Yeah, exactly. It’s sort of the question of like, what would be the canary in the coal mine?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:01:12:12 – 00:01:25:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And as we were looking around for answers to these questions, turns out there’s a paper called \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin & Alexis: \u003c/strong>Canary in the Coal Mine \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Out of the Stanford Digital Economy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Yeah. That’s right. And it’s the work of a scholar there named Erik Brynjolfsson.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:01:25:08 – 00:01:46:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He was at MIT for 30 years before coming to Stanford, very early in his understanding of the potentially transformative effects of AI, and has become one of the folks who is really trying to shine a light into the kind of mysterious recesses of the economy so that the rest of us can know, like what is happening and how fast.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:01:46:23 – 00:01:47:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Yeah,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:01:47:11 – 00:02:08:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Because it really matters the time scale. Right? If we have this incredible transformation in three months or in three years or in three decades, it will mean tremendously different society. And we need someone who can tell us, like, where are we on this, on this chart? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>So here is our very own canary in the coal mine Erik\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:02:08:22 – 00:02:10:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Brynjolfsson.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:02:10:11 – 00:02:25:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>There’s a lot of, as you know, definitions of AI, you know, superintelligence, AGI, you know, just like advanced AI, I’m quite taken by the definition that you used in sort of a formative ad.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:02:25:22 – 00:02:47:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Yeah. Transformative AI. You laid this out in a research agenda, you know, for kind of the, the community last year. And there’s a bit more to it. But the core of it is, as you said, we’ll know it’s transformative AI because it’ll have this significant economic effect. It’ll accelerate economic growth from sort of the the baseline that we’ve become accustomed to for a long time now, maybe around 2%.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:02:47:17 – 00:03:09:10\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’ll it’ll multiply that by by 3 or 5 times almost without talking about AI specifically, it’d be really interesting to have you dramatize like what that means for for an economy. You know, if that did happen, \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>transformative AI?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Transformative AI that and that growth rate like, like how would that change our our day, our week, our year, our jobs?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:03:09:11 – 00:03:35:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Well, these way for me to think of it as by analogy. And so we don’t know for sure what’s going to happen going forward. But we can look back at, say, the industrial revolution. And in the Second Machine Age, Andy McAfee and I wrote about how we went through this big transition from an agricultural society to an industrial society, and we call it the second Machine age, because now we’re having in the early stages of a second big transition like that.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:03:35:20 – 00:03:56:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The first one was about machines doing what our muscles could do, an animal muscles, and that took growth from being sort of growing very, very slow tenths of a percent per year to growing about 2% per year, which may not sound like much, but you compound it. And now we’re like 30 or 50 times richer than our ancestors were a couple hundred years ago.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:03:56:03 – 00:04:13:13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I think that doing now, now, we were able to use machines to augment our minds, our brains. And I think that’s going to be at least as big as what the Industrial Revolution did. And it will transform society at least as much, not just in growth rate, but also like, you know, just what we do in our daily lives.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:04:13:13 – 00:04:33:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Think of the way farmers versus people in factories or modern society, how different that is. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Using that analogy, I feel like I should probably know this, but during the Industrial revolution, did people’s lives change in a decade in terms of the kind of work they did, how they worked in the world, the kind of goods and services they, they had access to?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:04:33:01 – 00:04:53:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Did it? Was it more of a generational change, like what was the pace of that?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> It was actually pretty slow. In fact, there’s something called Engels pause. This period of like several decades, 40, 50 years where there wasn’t much of an improvement in living standards. If you read Charles Dickens, you know, actually life could be pretty miserable, even worse than it was for the people living in agricultural society.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:04:53:06 – 00:05:11:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>As life expectancy declined, people got shorter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Yeah, yeah. All that smoke and soot and and kids working in factories and stuff, you know, it was pretty miserable for the majority of the population. But under the surface, things were changing. And you were beginning to have this productivity gain. But it took a while and eventually it started taking off.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:05:11:11 – 00:05:19:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This time around, it’s also going to take longer than I think some of our friends here in San Francisco and Silicon Valley think, but but certainly a lot faster than the last time around\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:05:19:19 – 00:05:24:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Let’s go back into the historical example. I think it’s actually really useful for people to think about this, right?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:05:24:05 – 00:05:44:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You have this general purpose technology of \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>general purpose technology, \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>which is a term of art, I love it, \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>and also I do we were talking about this earlier. I it had not occurred to me that it’s the twin GPT. It seems a little uncanny\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong>. Yeah. So my, my my friend and student, former student Daniel Rock, he wrote a great paper with some folks at OpenAI called GPT RPGs.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:05:44:12 – 00:06:03:18\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Yeah, generative pre-trained transformers and general purpose technologies. It used to be when I said GPT to economists, we all knew we were talking about general purpose technologies, but the AI people have pretty much stolen that acronym \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>and branded it. Yeah. And for the into it into a global brand\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> So be it. Yeah. But but but general purpose technology is pretty much what drives all economic growth.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:06:03:18 – 00:06:23:15\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s all these inventions, but there’s just a handful that really raise our living standards. The steam engine was the first really powerful general purpose technology electricity, computers and now AI, which is kind of like the mother of all general purpose technology, I think. So, you know, Demis Hassabis has this. I was over at Google DeepMind a few weeks ago in London.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:06:23:16 – 00:06:41:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They had this mission statement. They want to let me see if I can get it right. They want to solve intelligence and then use that to solve all the other problems in the world. So, you know, modest little mission statement. But but, you know, there’s a lot of truth to the fact that if you really could solve intelligence, there’s so many other things you could solve.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:06:41:11 – 00:06:56:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Yeah, that is, of course, if you trusted that that’s what people who had solved intelligence would actually do with this intelligence. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Well, that’s a very good question. There’s a bunch of things that you can use it for. And also, to be fair, as I’ve come to think harder about the problem, intelligence is not the be all and end all.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:06:56:01 – 00:07:06:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A lot of very smart people think and wish it was, but when you get into the real world, you know, just look around us. There’s there’s lots of PhDs in the economy and they don’t like, rule the economy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:06:12 – 00:07:14:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You know, you go into a I was at the Starbucks across the street just before coming here, and you walk in there and l\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: Seven PhDs just right in there.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:14:05 – 00:07:14:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: Yeah. Imagine\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:14:17 – 00:07:27:21\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>imagine you pull up with a bus and you say, okay, good news. You know, we’ve got Einstein, we’ve got a bus of 200 Einsteins. They’re going to come help you. I think the manager over there be like, oh, well, like, do they know how to push a broom? I mean, what are they going to do? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>I love that\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:27:23 – 00:07:33:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>because that that kind of argument and just even that that playful vision gets into the real crunchy details of like, what happens in an economy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:33:19 – 00:07:54:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s not just, you know, sugar and eggs, whip them together and voila, you get growth and productivity. It’s really crunchy. And the thing I like best about your work is that kind of ongoing attempt to to dig in and sort of look for signals. You had the paper called Canary in a coal mine, which feels like exactly what we need most right now.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:54:09 – 00:08:11:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>We need those kind of early signals. You know, they might be warning signals in some cases. They might be like hopeful beacons. We’re going to steer towards \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: the Canaries. metaphor for is a little dark at times. Yeah. We didn’t really mean it that way. We meant it in the more general metaphors, like an early warning signal. Yeah. And it’s very uneven.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:08:11:20 – 00:08:27:13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And that’s part of it. You know, going back to the intelligence point, you know, I just want to finish that earlier point about about these general purpose technologies. They tend to take a long time to play out, because even when you speed up one part, there are other parts that are bottlenecks or weak links to take longer to emerge.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:08:27:17 – 00:09:00:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But that that gets to your question about the Canaries paper, where we did find that there are certain jobs that are already beginning to be affected and others that are actually going the other way, that are becoming more valuable. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>That’s interesting. I mean, so one of the findings, at least as I read it, you can correct me if I’m wrong, is that if there is an impact, it seems to be maybe, as you’d expect on entry level workers, the people who whose contributions can perhaps most seamlessly be replaced by Claude or ChatGPT or whatever.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:00:23 – 00:09:14:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>I didn’t necessarily expect that in Vance. I should credit my coauthors, Baratunde and Russian, who did most of the heavy lifting on this, and the folks at ADP who provided all the data. And we went into it, you know, with with a blank slate. We just were open to whatever. Actually,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:14:10 – 00:09:16:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>the first cut at it, we looked at the top line.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:16:15 – 00:09:32:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s not much happening, actually. You know, the overall labor market, it wasn’t that much happening. And we’re kicking around like, okay, maybe write a paper that all these headlines, these newspaper articles are all kind of overblown. And then, you know, Borat and Rudy looked in a little more deeply and they said, wait a minute. There’s like, there’s one group that’s really being affected.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:32:14 – 00:09:36:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Early career workers, especially in the most exposed occupations.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:36:21 – 00:09:50:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So one of the things you can do with you can take all the jobs in the economy. 950, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And each of them, you can break down to a bundle of individual tasks. And once you do, at that fine grained level, you can really make headway.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:50:19 – 00:10:14:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s hard to say whether that AI will replace a radiologist, some people say, but it’s much easier to look at a specific thing. Can it read a medical image? And that’s one of the 26 things that a radiologist does when you break it down to those tasks. And by the way, the paper that did that the best was this GPT are GPTs paper we were just talking about, when you break it down that way, you can rank all the occupations.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:14:15 – 00:10:14:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:14:23 – 00:10:24:05\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>then when you also look at the age, you find that the combination of the most exposed occupations with the youngest workers had about a 16% decline in employment.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:24:05 – 00:10:33:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin\u003c/strong>: So there’s a couple threads to pull on there and I want to do them both. One is the young workers, kind of the entry level workers and just the whole idea of like careers and and experience and everything else.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:33:03 – 00:10:44:17\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the other one is the data. My perception is that right now we as a country, a society, maybe a planet probably don’t have as much data as we would like.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:44:19 – 00:10:45:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Oh, no.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:45:09 – 00:10:46:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>it’s a tragedy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:46:04 – 00:11:01:05\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I spent a lot of time with our friends in Washington who are, like, working in the statistical agencies, and they’re having their budgets cut. It’s getting, you know, there’s more and more need for better data and less and less resources going into it. I think it’s incredibly foolish. One of the things we’re doing at Stanford is trying to help with that.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:01:06 – 00:11:17:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>We created something just last month called the Stanford AI Economic Indicators. That is like a dashboard that brings together all this data from a lot of private sources, as well as public sources, so people can look at it in one place instead of all these sort of dueling anecdotes, you know, everyone can see the data\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:17:11 – 00:11:31:07\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>The timing around this technological change of these major changes feels to me like it should be a deflationary narrative about how quickly AI is going to be deployed. But I’m kind of hearing from you, like sort of the opposite of that,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:31:07 – 00:11:45:21\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>that that you feel like there are that, that we are going to deploy this much faster than in these previous instances, even though historically we haven’t been able to do that, that it’s just there’s all this inertia across so many different sectors.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:45:21 – 00:11:54:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And it also sounds to me a little bit from the data board that like that is what’s happening. It is taking longer, you know, and I know both of us well.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:54:10 – 00:11:56:01\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Erik: Well, I think both of those things are true.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:56:02 – 00:12:11:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>What I would say, you know, I wrote about the need for these complementary investments. I wrote a paper called about the productivity paradox, about the first wave and then about this wave, and most importantly, a paper called The Productivity J curve with Chad Stephenson and Daniel Rock.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:11:02 – 00:12:13:07\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And they all make this point that, you know,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:13:07 – 00:12:31:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>just because you have amazing technology, it doesn’t translate into productivity, business changes, transformation of the economy. That said that said, I think it’s happening a lot faster this time than with the Industrial revolution or with electricity, which also took like 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:31:10 – 00:12:34:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s just a lot of structural reasons why it’s going faster.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:34:08 – 00:12:53:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For one thing, you know, the internet has been built out, so we can just go from 0 to 100 million users of ChatGPT and like, you know, what was it, 60 days and now it’s a billion. Yeah, but like just going super fast and and a lot of the cognitive work, you can, you know, like software, you can do it a lot faster now than you could.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:53:07 – 00:13:10:21\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s still there’s still a lot of bottlenecks which you know, so I find myself sort of between these worlds when I talk to most economists and, you know, in New York or Washington or in businesses, you know, they see all the the structural barriers. When I talk to the guys at the Frontier Labs, they’re like, oh, we’re going to have RSI, recursive self-improvement.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:13:10:21 – 00:13:26:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s all going to happen super fast. And I point out a bottleneck and they’re like, oh, AI will solve that. Yeah, yeah. And I’m kind of I’m kind of between them I put myself, you know, they’re like probably two orders of magnitude apart from each other in terms of rate of speed. And I’m at the geometric mean like one order of magnitude.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:13:26:11 – 00:13:45:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And so I do think it’s faster than most people in the rest of the world are ready for. And that’s why we create that statement about we must act now. I do also, at the same time think that that most of the technologists, they haven’t really spent as much time in big companies as I have and realized like how hard it is to get them to change.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:13:45:04 – 00:14:11:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: Can I ask this though, knowing that you have a company that is essentially trying to accelerate the change? Is there an argument to be made that letting this take some time is actually a good thing for society? Because this kind of disjunction in a labor market, or in just the value of intelligence or any of the ways that we might describe this transformation, is actually kind of a good thing to let it settle in more slowly.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:14:11:16 – 00:14:36:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>I agree with your core point, and but what I would say is that we need to speed up our understanding. We need to speed up our adaptation to it. We need to speed up our reskilling and, you know, be prepared or preparation. At the same time, I’m very sympathetic to the idea that those core capabilities, you know, there was just another statement that come out, these statements are all coming out about what they call it pacing, pacing, pacing the frontier.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:14:36:13 – 00:14:39:17\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Right. Exactly. Which is, you know, that’s on the capability side. So,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:14:39:17 – 00:14:54:10\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>so the way I think about it is that there are these two lines. One of them is skyrocketing, which is the capabilities. The other one is our ability to adapt to it, which is barely moving. And that gap is where most of the big problems and challenges and opportunities lie over the next 5 or 10 years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:14:54:11 – 00:15:05:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That’s where all the action is. Until all my economist friends, you should be focusing on that gap. My part of it is to close the gap from the bottom and like, speed up our understanding. Other people can think about the technology.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:15:05:16 – 00:15:12:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> You know, we’re talking about sort of the acceleration of an economy, but there’s also this simultaneous thing that that maybe is different.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:15:12:01 – 00:15:31:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like maybe there’s a historical analogy for this, maybe there’s not. I think of it almost as like the weirding of the economy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> Yes\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>And this connects to a couple of things that we’ve talked about. You know, the idea that suddenly there’s no such thing as an entry level worker. Instead, you can only be, you know, a senior software engineer with an army of AI bots, and you’re really good at them.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:15:31:00 – 00:15:52:21\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But it raises the question of like, where do senior engineers or senior people of any kind come from anymore? Also, you know, again, to to make that industrial Revolution analogy, it’s interesting to consider that when you replace your, you know, horses going around a post with a steam engine, even though that’s new and kind of radical, you fundamentally do understand how that works.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:15:52:23 – 00:16:12:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Whereas when you replace your software engineering team with bots, you probably don’t understand how it works anymore. Do these differences I mean, do these matter? Should we really be looking closely at these, this this weirdness?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong> I mean, those are those two parts of your question are so different in my mind. Sure, sure. Yeah. I mean, they’re both weird.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:16:12:20 – 00:16:28:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>We can talk. Yeah, I’ll put them on that. So let me let me do one at a time because I think they’re both interesting to talk about. So on the on the junior versus senior this is this is a real problem. Like we describe earlier the data that there’s less demand for these young workers. But where do the middle managers come from.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:16:28:08 – 00:16:44:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Where are the senior workers come from. And you need them. And you need people with that kind of judgment. And we used to have this grand bargain where people come in sometimes do some kind of boring Scott work. But in the process, sort of by osmosis, they would learn how the business ran, learn how to be a lawyer or a doctor or investment bank or whatever.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:16:44:11 – 00:17:01:23\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now they don’t have that opportunity. And I think part of the answer has to be we have to like, consciously and explicitly train them. I was talking to some folks at Infosys and, you know, they their junior people are very much in the bullseye of not being needed as much, but they tell me that they’re still hiring a bunch of them.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:17:01:23 – 00:17:23:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But now instead of having them do some of that boring work that AI could now do, they are explicitly training them with an AI system. Actually, AI can be a really good tutor and it can help them learn faster. So that’s that’s part of the. That’s one approach to the answer. I think it’s going to be kind of a new social contract that we have to think about, because we don’t just abandon this whole generation of people.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:17:23:12 – 00:17:44:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I mean, I’ll tell you a little bit of a, of a of a sad story. Well, hopefully it has a good ending. A student came to me in my office a couple of months ago graduating from Stanford. Pretty good school. And she said, I don’t have a job. My friends don’t have jobs. Is my generation doomed? And I was like, whoa, yeah.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:17:44:04 – 00:17:59:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I mean, you’re a Stanford student. You should be optimistic. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis:\u003c/strong> I know I’m a mindful optimist what do you mean?.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong> You should be. You’re graduating. And what I tried to say was, look, you know, I don’t want to sugarcoat it. There’s a bunch of jobs disappearing, like you just said, but the other on the other side, you know, you can use these tools to do things you never could have before.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:17:59:14 – 00:18:16:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You’ve got superpowers where you can do vibe coding and create all sorts of software. That would have been impossible five years ago or even one year ago, and you needed to lean into those new possibilities. There’s more startups being started than ever before, because a lot of people are seeing this opportunity to create things they couldn’t have done before.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:18:16:08 – 00:18:33:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So, you know, that’s what I tried to teach my class. I have a master class that also does this, but I really want people to, you know, you know, I understand the downside, but I think there’s almost too much emphasis on that. And there should be more of a leaning in to AI allowing you to do new things you never could have done before.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:18:33:22 – 00:18:55:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They’re harder to see because a lot of them didn’t exist before, but that’s where the opportunity is. And that’s the part I want to speed up, is that is the transition to those new opportunities. I don’t want to just ossify everything and try to freeze everything in place. I don’t think that’s the strategy. We need to be nimble and have that more flexible opportunity to create new jobs, new opportunities.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:18:55:15 – 00:19:16:15\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>another recent historical analogy to this is, you know, self-driving cars, where we essentially see them being, generally speaking, safer drivers than human drivers. But when they do make a mistake, it tends to be sort of a novel mistake or the kind of the way the system breaks down is we could not have anticipated, you know, power outage.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:19:16:18 – 00:19:39:05\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: Yeah, it’s like an alien intelligence. Yeah. It is it exactly. Respect.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> They respect the cones too much. You know yourself driving cars. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly. They worship the code, but they don’t worship some other things. And, you know, as an economist, actually, you know, this is can be a little dangerous and off putting. It’s also an opportunity like for in economics, gains from trade happen when there’s two entities that are very different from each other.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:19:39:05 – 00:19:55:13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If they’re identical to each other, there’s not much room for for gains from trade. So actually mostly encourage the folks at the Frontier Labs to lean into making the A’s really good at things that humans are not good at, and let us be good at the things we’re good at. I think too often they do it the other way around.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:19:55:14 – 00:20:14:10\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They’re trying to, like, smooth the edges and and make them good at things that are that’s hard for machines and easy for us, like, you know, buttoning a shirt or, or and ultimately, the fact that it’s an alien intelligence means that we can lean on it to do some amazing things. But there will still be a role for humans, which I think is important.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:14:11 – 00:20:14:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:14:20 – 00:20:31:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I think it’s good to not replace all the things that humans are doing. I wrote this paper, The Turing Trap, where I basically argued it’s a mistake. It’s to do what Alan Turing said, which is make AI that’s a perfect imitation of humans. We should make it different so we each have something to contribute.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:31:10 – 00:20:36:23\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>You know, it’s funny, we can flip this around, you know, almost perfectly here on the podcast and in are there conversations.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:37:00 – 00:20:56:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Alexis and I are cautious and often critical of AI, particularly the industry, but we’re also quite enchanted by the the spaces inside these models. You know, these these mysterious high dimensional spaces and their capacity and the things they seem to be able to organize and then kind of cross connect in ways that humans can’t, certainly not at that scale.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:56:09 – 00:21:13:05\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And it makes me think of, you know, the old ancient, almost economics debate between central planning and sort of, you know, action at the edges. And you, of course, know this well. But for folks listening to the podcast, there’s a few different ways you can organize an economy. You could have, you know, yeah, you could have planning. Yeah.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:21:13:06 – 00:21:30:01\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Robin and Alexis deciding exactly how much to make of everything, you know, all fashionable t shirts and and cool. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>What a great world that would be. Yeah. And you know, this, this has the benefit of coherency. And you can actually have a plan and execute it. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>It can be aligned with the values of your society, at least supposedly in theory, all these things.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:21:30:01 – 00:21:49:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>But then way over on the other side, you have the idea of you have the sense that the real information about how the world works and what people want and what the problems are, of course, where they’re at the edges, you know, in people’s lives all distributed in their kitchens, in their businesses. Sort of the Haken view of like the great sensor of the market.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:21:49:18 – 00:22:12:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now it does seem so that was that was the story, you know, at least up until 2020, 2023. It does seem like maybe we have these machines now with a capacity that could change that balance a little bit. So first of all, I ask you, like do you see some of that potential. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Sure. No. This is a big like let me just say you’ve heard I’m pretty optimistic, excited about the productivity potential and creating a enormous amount of wealth.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:22:12:02 – 00:22:31:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>One of the things that I’m most worried about is it could be very badly distributed, where everything gets really, really centralized. And the core reason for that is what you just brought up. You know, Friedrich Hayek wrote this amazing paper called The Use of Knowledge in Society, which, you know, articulate what you just said, that most useful knowledge is, like widely dispersed in the economy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:22:31:07 – 00:22:47:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like, you know, does this do people in this neighborhood like peppermint ice cream or is this truck half empty? And maybe we could put some more stuff on it or whatever. There’s all this, like detailed information. And he argued that there’s no way a central planner, even guy’s as smart as you two, could make all the decisions in the economy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:22:47:04 – 00:23:06:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s just too much of this detailed information. And that was totally true for the 20th century and up until recently. But Zoe Hitzig and I have written a paper called AI’s Use of Knowledge in Society, where we argue that, wait a minute, you know, you could actually go take these trillions of parameters and make all sorts of decisions.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:23:07:00 – 00:23:32:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You could use the Internet of Things and other techniques to bring data and bring it all to, say, Bentonville, Arkansas, to pick up arbitrary city. And you’d be able to know all sorts of information about what’s happening and make decisions. And it’s actually beginning to happen. You know, when you look at the data and big centralized retailers are out competing, those mom and pop mom, mom and pop shops, they know more about what people want in each neighborhood and which trucks are empty.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:23:32:13 – 00:23:41:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They have all that detailed information that hikes. It would be impossible, which is great for efficiency, but it may not be the best thing for freedom and democracy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:23:41:21 – 00:23:43:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>we need to think hard.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:23:43:02 – 00:24:07:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now, while we have some optionality, how can we design a world where we maintain our freedom, maintain our decentralization of decision making, and that if we go too far down the path of disempowering people, it may be very hard to reverse course later. And for what it’s worth, everyone’s noticed. It’s kind of beginning to happen, right? And we better take it seriously because we go much further down that path.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:24:07:04 – 00:24:08:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’ll be too late. Yeah,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:24:08:03 – 00:24:34:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>I did want to ask you. I mean, this is from your book, Second Machine Age, of course, you coauthored \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>with Andy. Andy McAfee. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Alexis: And you have to paraphrase Martin Luther King Jr. The arc of history is long, but it bends towards justice. We think the data support this. We’ve seen not just vast increases in wealth, but also, on the whole, more freedom, more social justice, less violence, and less less harsh conditions for the least fortunate and greater opportunities for more and more people.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:24:34:20 – 00:24:52:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I think, like there have been the majority of my life, I think I would have more or less agreed with this. I think in the last ten years, my own kind of priors have been challenged on this. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Not just you. Yeah, no, we wrote that in 2014. I’m glad that I just checked. And it’s like it’s got more and more sales and citations.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:24:52:02 – 00:25:10:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So I’m glad that it’s it’s got legs that way. And that was sort of maybe like the peak of this,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Alexis: Obama era story optimism. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly. But but speaking of Obama, you know, he modified that quote and he said that it bends. You know, I’m going to misquote him, but but the gist of what he was saying was, got a push on the ark.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:25:10:20 – 00:25:27:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: You got to push on it. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: It doesn’t happen automatically. We won’t just sit back and watch it happen. And that’s very much, you know, you mentioned I call myself a mindful optimist. You know, that the arc of history bends if and only if we push it. And I think lately it’s been going the wrong way. It’s also long, like Martin Luther King said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:25:27:06 – 00:25:44:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So you know, it’s not going to be monotonic where it always improves every month or every year. So I think it’s fair to say we’ve had some backsliding and some bad things have happened. I’m still optimistic, maybe a little less optimistic than I was in 2014, but I’m hopeful that that work harder. But but this is exactly why I do.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:25:44:06 – 00:26:13:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>What I do is I’m not here to predict the future. I’m here to say, here are some possible futures, and here are some levers that matter. And we need to push on them, because most of us do want not just more abundance, but also more freedom and shared prosperity. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Can I can I keep pushing on this one a little bit just because I think there’s, you know, even some people in this building here at KQED who their their biggest concern about AI, they have they have many environmental this and other things.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:26:13:02 – 00:26:13:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:26:13:08 – 00:26:42:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>it’s really about particularly being here in San Francisco. You really see it the concentration of wealth. And then, you know, our city politics has been taken over by tech wealth. It’s like it’s also the concentration of power that that goes along \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Those tend to go together, don’t they.? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Yes. Yeah. And I guess the, the maybe more difficult version of this question is do you think that AI, as a result of the what the frontier models need, the amount of capital that you need to deploy to do these things?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:26:42:10 – 00:27:04:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Is this a kind of technology that inherently leads to higher concentrations of wealth and therefore a power? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>I don’t want to say inherently, because I don’t want to be in the prediction business, I want to be in the design business. But there’s a lot of strong forces, and there’s two sets that are particularly obvious to me. One is, you know, the scaling laws and the fact that the AI itself tends to work better at large scale.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:27:04:22 – 00:27:28:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That’s why they’re raising hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars to build bigger and bigger data centers. But yeah, borrowing and and, you know, there’s just this amazing thing that Dario Modi and others noted that you make the model bigger and it works better. So they said, let’s make it even bigger. And it just keeps working. So that tends to lead to kind of a bit of a winner take most outcome.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:27:28:14 – 00:27:44:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Actually, I’ve been somewhat surprised how many frontier labs there still are. It hasn’t all just concentrating to one singleton. But you know, who knows where that’s going to go. It certainly you have to be pretty big to be a player in that, but the one that I’m more concerned about is the other, like 90% of the economy,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:27:44:22 – 00:27:56:18\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>that, you know, whether you’re in retail or manufacturing or health or whatever, you know, having decentralized information may not be as competitive with having it become more centralized.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:27:56:18 – 00:28:15:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And that could also lead. And it has been if you look at the data, there has been more concentration. So we need to think harder about how do we decentralize it. I mean, part of one of the answers that I would put forward is this idea of pushing AI to complement humans rather than substitute for them. But we need to look at all levers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:28:15:22 – 00:28:41:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> Thinking about that discussion about centralization, about kind of where the power, where the money resides is that change in the capital versus labor share of the economy a warning sign? I mean, if that continues, \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>yes, yes, this one I’m not going to hedge on. So so capital is inherently much more concentrated than labor. You know, the cool thing about labor, even though it’s pretty uneven, like we all have basically one brain.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:28:41:09 – 00:28:57:15\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And like some of them, you know, maybe a little smarter than others, but but, you know, it’s distributed through the economy. You know, no matter how smart you are, you can’t run a whole fortune 500 corporation. So you delegate stuff, and the whole economy has all these delegated decisions to all these different brains. But with capital, you can concentrate it much more.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:28:57:15 – 00:29:19:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And empirically, you know, the income from capital is much more concentrated in a small fraction of the people. So, you know, we were saying earlier that economic power begets political power. So that’s something I worry about. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>I mean, what would that world even look like? You know, I’ve looked at some other countries that have labor share that’s like much lower.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:29:19:10 – 00:29:39:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Yeah, labor share of income is much lower. And it’s not a good set of countries. They’re like resource cursed countries that Saudi Arabia, it’s like mineral mining countries. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly, And you get these like gated communities and these people who have a lot of wealth. I was talking to somebody from a Latin American country. She’s very wealthy. And she said, you know, all the wealthy people in my country are in prisons.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:29:39:00 – 00:29:46:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And like, what do you mean they’re in prison? She said, well, the prison of our own construction, like we can’t go outside of our houses when we ever. I get into a car, I have like guards on either side of me\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:29:47:00 – 00:30:08:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s like one of those dystopian science fiction movies. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Yeah. What? What interventions could we at least start to prepare for now, economically? And obviously there’s a whole suite of politics and, you know, who we elect and how we organize ourselves as a city. But just thinking about economic policy, what what are what would be some smart things to start thinking about right now.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:30:08:12 – 00:30:31:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>So I think we have some levers to push back against this, and that’s why I care about it. So I did write this paper, The Turing Trap, about how it’s a trap to have AI that just replaces and imitates humans. So a couple of things we can push back on. First off, there’s a lot of economic incentives right now that I think mistakenly steer us towards favoring capital over labor, like in the United States and most countries for that matter.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:30:31:13 – 00:30:55:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Tax policy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Tax policy is much, you know, capitalist taxed much cheaper than labor. So you have two brilliant entrepreneurs, you know, one of which says, I’m going to make a $100 billion company with thousands of employees. And the other ones, I’m going to make $100 billion company with like no employees, but lots of robots. Yeah. The US government says, oh, the first person you know, Alice, you’re going to have to like, pay a lot more taxes.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:30:55:00 – 00:31:11:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Your whole organization is going to pay a lot more taxes. And the second one is going to pay less. And, you know, the first rule of taxation is like, whatever you tax more, you get less of. So we’re basically putting our thumb on the scale, saying we’re going to get more capital intensive and less labor intensive. Like for most of history, maybe that didn’t matter that much.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:31:11:06 – 00:31:34:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It wasn’t that much leverage to to do things different ways. Now we really have the potential and there’s a lot of other tax things you can do. My friend Darren Asamoah, who has written a lot about this Pascual Restrepo. So those are some things that we can do. Like, you know, they’re a really hard core. I’m an economist, but I’ve come to think that actually culture and the way people think about it is more important than the like hard dollars.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:31:34:02 – 00:31:59:13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So here in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, I run into a lot of people who have this mindset that like the goal of AI is to replace humans, and that’s just wrong, I think. And when they all the benchmarks that you see being published, almost all of them are geared towards like, how well can this machine by itself do the task with Andy Hopped and we’ve developed a new set of benchmarks.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:31:59:13 – 00:32:18:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>We call them Centaur benchmarks, sort of like part human, part machine. And the the idea is to say, hey guys, think about not how well a machine by itself can do it, but how can a human and machine together do it? And in many cases, in most cases, the human machine can do better than the machine by itself or the human by itself, but it requires a different architecture.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:32:18:20 – 00:32:41:15\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You know, Doug Engelbart years ago, you know, talked about how we should make machines that amplify humans. Steve Jobs called it bicycles for the mind, and that that philosophy has kind of been lost out a little bit. I want to revive it more. And if we design machines more to to augment humans and to complement what we’re doing, we’re likely to keep people in the loop.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:32:41:15 – 00:32:48:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And ultimately, I think that’s going to not just be fairer. I think it’s going to create a lot more value than trying to get the machine to do everything by itself.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:32:48:20 – 00:33:23:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Eric, talking about your your early apprehension of the curve we were in and kind of the trajectory of AI, let’s talk situational awareness for people on the ground level. So outside of OpenAI headquarters here in San Francisco, imagine you’re somebody who works at one of the Kaiser hospitals. Great day to day job. How are you going to know that it really is taking off, that you’re inside this exponential, and that this prediction of of a transformational AI era happening pretty fast rather than predictably slow is true.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:33:23:20 – 00:33:44:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like day to day, week to week. What what should I be watching for? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Well, you can come to the AI economic indicators and we’ll have we’ll have a monthly update of all those metrics. You know, I’m not I’m not joking about that because I just see so many anecdotes and stories. And honestly, it’s a little frustrating because, you know, every month there’s hundreds of thousands of jobs destroyed, hundreds of thousands created.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:33:44:12 – 00:34:01:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And if you’re a reporter with an angle, you can you can definitely find anecdotes that support your story. And you’ll have some men in the street who tells you what you know, what the people. And I’ve been reading those and I just don’t know how to aggregate them. So, you know, I’m a data person. I’m a statistician. I’m an economist.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:34:01:02 – 00:34:21:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So so, you know, getting the stuff aggregated, I think is the way to do it. The problem is that most of our indicators are kind of lagging indicators. And we need more so forward looking leading indicators. And we’re trying to invest in creating those. But but I think that that’s my answer. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Promise me when the day comes that you’re like, oh, you’re just going to put it all in one big blink tech.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:34:21:16 – 00:34:42:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Yeah. It’s just like a little siren. Yeah, yeah.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong> Well, we do actually have these color coded like the transformation tracker. We’ve got like the 12 different metrics, and we color code them by like which ones are moving in the direction. Right now only two of the 12 are moving in that direction. You know, above a significant level. They’re all kind of moving a little bit.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:34:42:12 – 00:35:02:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So yeah, we can we can you can take a look at that. I just want is it happening dot Stanford. Yes. All right. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You give me an idea, we’ll put a little sign up sheet that like if you want, we’ll send you a text message. You know, it’ll be like all 12 indicators. 459 on Thursday. Okay. We were officially hitting the singularity.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:35:02:21 – 00:35:16:18\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Okay. Until then, yes, until next Thursday. Yeah. Thank you so much. Thanks for your time. Such a pleasure. Yeah. Wonderful.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:35:16:20 – 00:35:20:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> I don’t want to say inherently, because I don’t want to be in the prediction business, I want to be in the design business. But there’s a lot of strong forces,the AI itself tends to work better at large scale. That’s why they’re raising hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars. You make the model bigger and it works better. So they said, let’s make it even bigger. And it just keeps working. So that tends to lead to kind of a bit of a winner take most outcome.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And also the question of how would we know that it’s being transformed? You certainly read a lot of headlines and see a lot of stock prices go up. But like what’s actually happening out there in offices?\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And as we were looking around for answers to these questions, turns out there’s a paper called \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin & Alexis: \u003c/strong>Canary in the Coal Mine \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Out of the Stanford Digital Economy. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Yeah. That’s right. And it’s the work of a scholar there named Erik Brynjolfsson.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>He was at MIT for 30 years before coming to Stanford, very early in his understanding of the potentially transformative effects of AI, and has become one of the folks who is really trying to shine a light into the kind of mysterious recesses of the economy so that the rest of us can know, like what is happening and how fast.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Yeah,\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Because it really matters the time scale. Right? If we have this incredible transformation in three months or in three years or in three decades, it will mean tremendously different society. And we need someone who can tell us, like, where are we on this, on this chart? \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Because it really matters the time scale. Right? If we have this incredible transformation in three months or in three years or in three decades, it will mean tremendously different society. And we need someone who can tell us, like, where are we on this, on this chart? \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>So here is our very own canary in the coal mine Erik\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Brynjolfsson.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>There’s a lot of, as you know, definitions of AI, you know, superintelligence, AGI, you know, just like advanced AI, I’m quite taken by the definition that you used in sort of a formative ad.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Yeah. Transformative AI. You laid this out in a research agenda, you know, for kind of the, the community last year. And there’s a bit more to it. But the core of it is, as you said, we’ll know it’s transformative AI because it’ll have this significant economic effect. It’ll accelerate economic growth from sort of the the baseline that we’ve become accustomed to for a long time now, maybe around 2%.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>It’ll it’ll multiply that by by 3 or 5 times almost without talking about AI specifically, it’d be really interesting to have you dramatize like what that means for for an economy. You know, if that did happen, \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>transformative AI?\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Transformative AI that and that growth rate like, like how would that change our our day, our week, our year, our jobs?\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Well, these way for me to think of it as by analogy. And so we don’t know for sure what’s going to happen going forward. But we can look back at, say, the industrial revolution. And in the Second Machine Age, Andy McAfee and I wrote about how we went through this big transition from an agricultural society to an industrial society, and we call it the second Machine age, because now we’re having in the early stages of a second big transition like that.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The first one was about machines doing what our muscles could do, an animal muscles, and that took growth from being sort of growing very, very slow tenths of a percent per year to growing about 2% per year, which may not sound like much, but you compound it. And now we’re like 30 or 50 times richer than our ancestors were a couple hundred years ago.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The first one was about machines doing what our muscles could do, an animal muscles, and that took growth from being sort of growing very, very slow tenths of a percent per year to growing about 2% per year, which may not sound like much, but you compound it. And now we’re like 30 or 50 times richer than our ancestors were a couple hundred years ago.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>I think that doing now, now, we were able to use machines to augment our minds, our brains. And I think that’s going to be at least as big as what the Industrial Revolution did. And it will transform society at least as much, not just in growth rate, but also like, you know, just what we do in our daily lives.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Think of the way farmers versus people in factories or modern society, how different that is. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Using that analogy, I feel like I should probably know this, but during the Industrial revolution, did people’s lives change in a decade in terms of the kind of work they did, how they worked in the world, the kind of goods and services they, they had access to?\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Did it? Was it more of a generational change, like what was the pace of that?\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> It was actually pretty slow. In fact, there’s something called Engels pause. This period of like several decades, 40, 50 years where there wasn’t much of an improvement in living standards. If you read Charles Dickens, you know, actually life could be pretty miserable, even worse than it was for the people living in agricultural society.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>As life expectancy declined, people got shorter. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Yeah, yeah. All that smoke and soot and and kids working in factories and stuff, you know, it was pretty miserable for the majority of the population. But under the surface, things were changing. And you were beginning to have this productivity gain. But it took a while and eventually it started taking off.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>This time around, it’s also going to take longer than I think some of our friends here in San Francisco and Silicon Valley think, but but certainly a lot faster than the last time around\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Let’s go back into the historical example. I think it’s actually really useful for people to think about this, right?\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>You have this general purpose technology of \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>general purpose technology, \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>which is a term of art, I love it, \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>and also I do we were talking about this earlier. I it had not occurred to me that it’s the twin GPT. It seems a little uncanny\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong>. Yeah. So my, my my friend and student, former student Daniel Rock, he wrote a great paper with some folks at OpenAI called GPT RPGs.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Yeah, generative pre-trained transformers and general purpose technologies. It used to be when I said GPT to economists, we all knew we were talking about general purpose technologies, but the AI people have pretty much stolen that acronym \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>and branded it. Yeah. And for the into it into a global brand\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> So be it. Yeah. But but but general purpose technology is pretty much what drives all economic growth.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>There’s all these inventions, but there’s just a handful that really raise our living standards. The steam engine was the first really powerful general purpose technology electricity, computers and now AI, which is kind of like the mother of all general purpose technology, I think. So, you know, Demis Hassabis has this. I was over at Google DeepMind a few weeks ago in London.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>They had this mission statement. They want to let me see if I can get it right. They want to solve intelligence and then use that to solve all the other problems in the world. So, you know, modest little mission statement. But but, you know, there’s a lot of truth to the fact that if you really could solve intelligence, there’s so many other things you could solve.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Yeah, that is, of course, if you trusted that that’s what people who had solved intelligence would actually do with this intelligence. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Well, that’s a very good question. There’s a bunch of things that you can use it for. And also, to be fair, as I’ve come to think harder about the problem, intelligence is not the be all and end all.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>A lot of very smart people think and wish it was, but when you get into the real world, you know, just look around us. There’s there’s lots of PhDs in the economy and they don’t like, rule the economy.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: Seven PhDs just right in there.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>imagine you pull up with a bus and you say, okay, good news. You know, we’ve got Einstein, we’ve got a bus of 200 Einsteins. They’re going to come help you. I think the manager over there be like, oh, well, like, do they know how to push a broom? I mean, what are they going to do? \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>I love that\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>because that that kind of argument and just even that that playful vision gets into the real crunchy details of like, what happens in an economy.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>It’s not just, you know, sugar and eggs, whip them together and voila, you get growth and productivity. It’s really crunchy. And the thing I like best about your work is that kind of ongoing attempt to to dig in and sort of look for signals. You had the paper called Canary in a coal mine, which feels like exactly what we need most right now.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>We need those kind of early signals. You know, they might be warning signals in some cases. They might be like hopeful beacons. We’re going to steer towards \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: the Canaries. metaphor for is a little dark at times. Yeah. We didn’t really mean it that way. We meant it in the more general metaphors, like an early warning signal. Yeah. And it’s very uneven.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And that’s part of it. You know, going back to the intelligence point, you know, I just want to finish that earlier point about about these general purpose technologies. They tend to take a long time to play out, because even when you speed up one part, there are other parts that are bottlenecks or weak links to take longer to emerge.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But that that gets to your question about the Canaries paper, where we did find that there are certain jobs that are already beginning to be affected and others that are actually going the other way, that are becoming more valuable. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>That’s interesting. I mean, so one of the findings, at least as I read it, you can correct me if I’m wrong, is that if there is an impact, it seems to be maybe, as you’d expect on entry level workers, the people who whose contributions can perhaps most seamlessly be replaced by Claude or ChatGPT or whatever.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>I didn’t necessarily expect that in Vance. I should credit my coauthors, Baratunde and Russian, who did most of the heavy lifting on this, and the folks at ADP who provided all the data. And we went into it, you know, with with a blank slate. We just were open to whatever. Actually,\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>the first cut at it, we looked at the top line.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>There’s not much happening, actually. You know, the overall labor market, it wasn’t that much happening. And we’re kicking around like, okay, maybe write a paper that all these headlines, these newspaper articles are all kind of overblown. And then, you know, Borat and Rudy looked in a little more deeply and they said, wait a minute. There’s like, there’s one group that’s really being affected.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So one of the things you can do with you can take all the jobs in the economy. 950, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And each of them, you can break down to a bundle of individual tasks. And once you do, at that fine grained level, you can really make headway.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin\u003c/strong>: So there’s a couple threads to pull on there and I want to do them both. One is the young workers, kind of the entry level workers and just the whole idea of like careers and and experience and everything else.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But the other one is the data. My perception is that right now we as a country, a society, maybe a planet probably don’t have as much data as we would like.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>I spent a lot of time with our friends in Washington who are, like, working in the statistical agencies, and they’re having their budgets cut. It’s getting, you know, there’s more and more need for better data and less and less resources going into it. I think it’s incredibly foolish. One of the things we’re doing at Stanford is trying to help with that.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>We created something just last month called the Stanford AI Economic Indicators. That is like a dashboard that brings together all this data from a lot of private sources, as well as public sources, so people can look at it in one place instead of all these sort of dueling anecdotes, you know, everyone can see the data\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>The timing around this technological change of these major changes feels to me like it should be a deflationary narrative about how quickly AI is going to be deployed. But I’m kind of hearing from you, like sort of the opposite of that,\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>that that you feel like there are that, that we are going to deploy this much faster than in these previous instances, even though historically we haven’t been able to do that, that it’s just there’s all this inertia across so many different sectors.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And it also sounds to me a little bit from the data board that like that is what’s happening. It is taking longer, you know, and I know both of us well.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Erik: Well, I think both of those things are true.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>What I would say, you know, I wrote about the need for these complementary investments. I wrote a paper called about the productivity paradox, about the first wave and then about this wave, and most importantly, a paper called The Productivity J curve with Chad Stephenson and Daniel Rock.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And they all make this point that, you know,\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>just because you have amazing technology, it doesn’t translate into productivity, business changes, transformation of the economy. That said that said, I think it’s happening a lot faster this time than with the Industrial revolution or with electricity, which also took like 30 years.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>There’s just a lot of structural reasons why it’s going faster.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>For one thing, you know, the internet has been built out, so we can just go from 0 to 100 million users of ChatGPT and like, you know, what was it, 60 days and now it’s a billion. Yeah, but like just going super fast and and a lot of the cognitive work, you can, you know, like software, you can do it a lot faster now than you could.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>It’s still there’s still a lot of bottlenecks which you know, so I find myself sort of between these worlds when I talk to most economists and, you know, in New York or Washington or in businesses, you know, they see all the the structural barriers. When I talk to the guys at the Frontier Labs, they’re like, oh, we’re going to have RSI, recursive self-improvement.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>It’s all going to happen super fast. And I point out a bottleneck and they’re like, oh, AI will solve that. Yeah, yeah. And I’m kind of I’m kind of between them I put myself, you know, they’re like probably two orders of magnitude apart from each other in terms of rate of speed. And I’m at the geometric mean like one order of magnitude.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And so I do think it’s faster than most people in the rest of the world are ready for. And that’s why we create that statement about we must act now. I do also, at the same time think that that most of the technologists, they haven’t really spent as much time in big companies as I have and realized like how hard it is to get them to change.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: Can I ask this though, knowing that you have a company that is essentially trying to accelerate the change? Is there an argument to be made that letting this take some time is actually a good thing for society? Because this kind of disjunction in a labor market, or in just the value of intelligence or any of the ways that we might describe this transformation, is actually kind of a good thing to let it settle in more slowly.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>I agree with your core point, and but what I would say is that we need to speed up our understanding. We need to speed up our adaptation to it. We need to speed up our reskilling and, you know, be prepared or preparation. At the same time, I’m very sympathetic to the idea that those core capabilities, you know, there was just another statement that come out, these statements are all coming out about what they call it pacing, pacing, pacing the frontier.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Right. Exactly. Which is, you know, that’s on the capability side. So,\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>so the way I think about it is that there are these two lines. One of them is skyrocketing, which is the capabilities. The other one is our ability to adapt to it, which is barely moving. And that gap is where most of the big problems and challenges and opportunities lie over the next 5 or 10 years.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>so the way I think about it is that there are these two lines. One of them is skyrocketing, which is the capabilities. The other one is our ability to adapt to it, which is barely moving. And that gap is where most of the big problems and challenges and opportunities lie over the next 5 or 10 years.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That’s where all the action is. Until all my economist friends, you should be focusing on that gap. My part of it is to close the gap from the bottom and like, speed up our understanding. Other people can think about the technology.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> You know, we’re talking about sort of the acceleration of an economy, but there’s also this simultaneous thing that that maybe is different.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> You know, we’re talking about sort of the acceleration of an economy, but there’s also this simultaneous thing that that maybe is different.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Like maybe there’s a historical analogy for this, maybe there’s not. I think of it almost as like the weirding of the economy. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> Yes\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>And this connects to a couple of things that we’ve talked about. You know, the idea that suddenly there’s no such thing as an entry level worker. Instead, you can only be, you know, a senior software engineer with an army of AI bots, and you’re really good at them.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But it raises the question of like, where do senior engineers or senior people of any kind come from anymore? Also, you know, again, to to make that industrial Revolution analogy, it’s interesting to consider that when you replace your, you know, horses going around a post with a steam engine, even though that’s new and kind of radical, you fundamentally do understand how that works.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Whereas when you replace your software engineering team with bots, you probably don’t understand how it works anymore. Do these differences I mean, do these matter? Should we really be looking closely at these, this this weirdness?\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong> I mean, those are those two parts of your question are so different in my mind. Sure, sure. Yeah. I mean, they’re both weird.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>We can talk. Yeah, I’ll put them on that. So let me let me do one at a time because I think they’re both interesting to talk about. So on the on the junior versus senior this is this is a real problem. Like we describe earlier the data that there’s less demand for these young workers. But where do the middle managers come from.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Where are the senior workers come from. And you need them. And you need people with that kind of judgment. And we used to have this grand bargain where people come in sometimes do some kind of boring Scott work. But in the process, sort of by osmosis, they would learn how the business ran, learn how to be a lawyer or a doctor or investment bank or whatever.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Now they don’t have that opportunity. And I think part of the answer has to be we have to like, consciously and explicitly train them. I was talking to some folks at Infosys and, you know, they their junior people are very much in the bullseye of not being needed as much, but they tell me that they’re still hiring a bunch of them.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But now instead of having them do some of that boring work that AI could now do, they are explicitly training them with an AI system. Actually, AI can be a really good tutor and it can help them learn faster. So that’s that’s part of the. That’s one approach to the answer. I think it’s going to be kind of a new social contract that we have to think about, because we don’t just abandon this whole generation of people.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>I mean, I’ll tell you a little bit of a, of a of a sad story. Well, hopefully it has a good ending. A student came to me in my office a couple of months ago graduating from Stanford. Pretty good school. And she said, I don’t have a job. My friends don’t have jobs. Is my generation doomed? And I was like, whoa, yeah.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>I mean, you’re a Stanford student. You should be optimistic. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis:\u003c/strong> I know I’m a mindful optimist what do you mean?.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong> You should be. You’re graduating. And what I tried to say was, look, you know, I don’t want to sugarcoat it. There’s a bunch of jobs disappearing, like you just said, but the other on the other side, you know, you can use these tools to do things you never could have before.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>You’ve got superpowers where you can do vibe coding and create all sorts of software. That would have been impossible five years ago or even one year ago, and you needed to lean into those new possibilities. There’s more startups being started than ever before, because a lot of people are seeing this opportunity to create things they couldn’t have done before.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So, you know, that’s what I tried to teach my class. I have a master class that also does this, but I really want people to, you know, you know, I understand the downside, but I think there’s almost too much emphasis on that. And there should be more of a leaning in to AI allowing you to do new things you never could have done before.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>They’re harder to see because a lot of them didn’t exist before, but that’s where the opportunity is. And that’s the part I want to speed up, is that is the transition to those new opportunities. I don’t want to just ossify everything and try to freeze everything in place. I don’t think that’s the strategy. We need to be nimble and have that more flexible opportunity to create new jobs, new opportunities.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>another recent historical analogy to this is, you know, self-driving cars, where we essentially see them being, generally speaking, safer drivers than human drivers. But when they do make a mistake, it tends to be sort of a novel mistake or the kind of the way the system breaks down is we could not have anticipated, you know, power outage.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: Yeah, it’s like an alien intelligence. Yeah. It is it exactly. Respect.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> They respect the cones too much. You know yourself driving cars. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly. They worship the code, but they don’t worship some other things. And, you know, as an economist, actually, you know, this is can be a little dangerous and off putting. It’s also an opportunity like for in economics, gains from trade happen when there’s two entities that are very different from each other.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly. They worship the code, but they don’t worship some other things. And, you know, as an economist, actually, you know, this is can be a little dangerous and off putting. It’s also an opportunity like for in economics, gains from trade happen when there’s two entities that are very different from each other.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If they’re identical to each other, there’s not much room for for gains from trade. So actually mostly encourage the folks at the Frontier Labs to lean into making the A’s really good at things that humans are not good at, and let us be good at the things we’re good at. I think too often they do it the other way around.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>They’re trying to, like, smooth the edges and and make them good at things that are that’s hard for machines and easy for us, like, you know, buttoning a shirt or, or and ultimately, the fact that it’s an alien intelligence means that we can lean on it to do some amazing things. But there will still be a role for humans, which I think is important.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>I think it’s good to not replace all the things that humans are doing. I wrote this paper, The Turing Trap, where I basically argued it’s a mistake. It’s to do what Alan Turing said, which is make AI that’s a perfect imitation of humans. We should make it different so we each have something to contribute.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>You know, it’s funny, we can flip this around, you know, almost perfectly here on the podcast and in are there conversations.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Alexis and I are cautious and often critical of AI, particularly the industry, but we’re also quite enchanted by the the spaces inside these models. You know, these these mysterious high dimensional spaces and their capacity and the things they seem to be able to organize and then kind of cross connect in ways that humans can’t, certainly not at that scale.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And it makes me think of, you know, the old ancient, almost economics debate between central planning and sort of, you know, action at the edges. And you, of course, know this well. But for folks listening to the podcast, there’s a few different ways you can organize an economy. You could have, you know, yeah, you could have planning. Yeah.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Robin and Alexis deciding exactly how much to make of everything, you know, all fashionable t shirts and and cool. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>What a great world that would be. Yeah. And you know, this, this has the benefit of coherency. And you can actually have a plan and execute it. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>But then way over on the other side, you have the idea of you have the sense that the real information about how the world works and what people want and what the problems are, of course, where they’re at the edges, you know, in people’s lives all distributed in their kitchens, in their businesses. Sort of the Haken view of like the great sensor of the market.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Now it does seem so that was that was the story, you know, at least up until 2020, 2023. It does seem like maybe we have these machines now with a capacity that could change that balance a little bit. So first of all, I ask you, like do you see some of that potential. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Sure. No. This is a big like let me just say you’ve heard I’m pretty optimistic, excited about the productivity potential and creating a enormous amount of wealth.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>One of the things that I’m most worried about is it could be very badly distributed, where everything gets really, really centralized. And the core reason for that is what you just brought up. You know, Friedrich Hayek wrote this amazing paper called The Use of Knowledge in Society, which, you know, articulate what you just said, that most useful knowledge is, like widely dispersed in the economy.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>One of the things that I’m most worried about is it could be very badly distributed, where everything gets really, really centralized. And the core reason for that is what you just brought up. You know, Friedrich Hayek wrote this amazing paper called The Use of Knowledge in Society, which, you know, articulate what you just said, that most useful knowledge is, like widely dispersed in the economy.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Like, you know, does this do people in this neighborhood like peppermint ice cream or is this truck half empty? And maybe we could put some more stuff on it or whatever. There’s all this, like detailed information. And he argued that there’s no way a central planner, even guy’s as smart as you two, could make all the decisions in the economy.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>There’s just too much of this detailed information. And that was totally true for the 20th century and up until recently. But Zoe Hitzig and I have written a paper called AI’s Use of Knowledge in Society, where we argue that, wait a minute, you know, you could actually go take these trillions of parameters and make all sorts of decisions.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>You could use the Internet of Things and other techniques to bring data and bring it all to, say, Bentonville, Arkansas, to pick up arbitrary city. And you’d be able to know all sorts of information about what’s happening and make decisions. And it’s actually beginning to happen. You know, when you look at the data and big centralized retailers are out competing, those mom and pop mom, mom and pop shops, they know more about what people want in each neighborhood and which trucks are empty.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>They have all that detailed information that hikes. It would be impossible, which is great for efficiency, but it may not be the best thing for freedom and democracy.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>we need to think hard.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Now, while we have some optionality, how can we design a world where we maintain our freedom, maintain our decentralization of decision making, and that if we go too far down the path of disempowering people, it may be very hard to reverse course later. And for what it’s worth, everyone’s noticed. It’s kind of beginning to happen, right? And we better take it seriously because we go much further down that path.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Now, while we have some optionality, how can we design a world where we maintain our freedom, maintain our decentralization of decision making, and that if we go too far down the path of disempowering people, it may be very hard to reverse course later. And for what it’s worth, everyone’s noticed. It’s kind of beginning to happen, right? And we better take it seriously because we go much further down that path.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>It’ll be too late. Yeah,\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>I did want to ask you. I mean, this is from your book, Second Machine Age, of course, you coauthored \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>with Andy. Andy McAfee. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Alexis: And you have to paraphrase Martin Luther King Jr. The arc of history is long, but it bends towards justice. We think the data support this. We’ve seen not just vast increases in wealth, but also, on the whole, more freedom, more social justice, less violence, and less less harsh conditions for the least fortunate and greater opportunities for more and more people.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>I think, like there have been the majority of my life, I think I would have more or less agreed with this. I think in the last ten years, my own kind of priors have been challenged on this. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Not just you. Yeah, no, we wrote that in 2014. I’m glad that I just checked. And it’s like it’s got more and more sales and citations.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Not just you. Yeah, no, we wrote that in 2014. I’m glad that I just checked. And it’s like it’s got more and more sales and citations.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So I’m glad that it’s it’s got legs that way. And that was sort of maybe like the peak of this,\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Alexis: Obama era story optimism. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly. But but speaking of Obama, you know, he modified that quote and he said that it bends. You know, I’m going to misquote him, but but the gist of what he was saying was, got a push on the ark.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: You got to push on it. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: It doesn’t happen automatically. We won’t just sit back and watch it happen. And that’s very much, you know, you mentioned I call myself a mindful optimist. You know, that the arc of history bends if and only if we push it. And I think lately it’s been going the wrong way. It’s also long, like Martin Luther King said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So you know, it’s not going to be monotonic where it always improves every month or every year. So I think it’s fair to say we’ve had some backsliding and some bad things have happened. I’m still optimistic, maybe a little less optimistic than I was in 2014, but I’m hopeful that that work harder. But but this is exactly why I do.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>What I do is I’m not here to predict the future. I’m here to say, here are some possible futures, and here are some levers that matter. And we need to push on them, because most of us do want not just more abundance, but also more freedom and shared prosperity. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Can I can I keep pushing on this one a little bit just because I think there’s, you know, even some people in this building here at KQED who their their biggest concern about AI, they have they have many environmental this and other things.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>it’s really about particularly being here in San Francisco. You really see it the concentration of wealth. And then, you know, our city politics has been taken over by tech wealth. It’s like it’s also the concentration of power that that goes along \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Those tend to go together, don’t they.? \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Yes. Yeah. And I guess the, the maybe more difficult version of this question is do you think that AI, as a result of the what the frontier models need, the amount of capital that you need to deploy to do these things?\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Is this a kind of technology that inherently leads to higher concentrations of wealth and therefore a power? \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>I don’t want to say inherently, because I don’t want to be in the prediction business, I want to be in the design business. But there’s a lot of strong forces, and there’s two sets that are particularly obvious to me. One is, you know, the scaling laws and the fact that the AI itself tends to work better at large scale.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That’s why they’re raising hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars to build bigger and bigger data centers. But yeah, borrowing and and, you know, there’s just this amazing thing that Dario Modi and others noted that you make the model bigger and it works better. So they said, let’s make it even bigger. And it just keeps working. So that tends to lead to kind of a bit of a winner take most outcome.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Actually, I’ve been somewhat surprised how many frontier labs there still are. It hasn’t all just concentrating to one singleton. But you know, who knows where that’s going to go. It certainly you have to be pretty big to be a player in that, but the one that I’m more concerned about is the other, like 90% of the economy,\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>that, you know, whether you’re in retail or manufacturing or health or whatever, you know, having decentralized information may not be as competitive with having it become more centralized.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And that could also lead. And it has been if you look at the data, there has been more concentration. So we need to think harder about how do we decentralize it. I mean, part of one of the answers that I would put forward is this idea of pushing AI to complement humans rather than substitute for them. But we need to look at all levers.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> Thinking about that discussion about centralization, about kind of where the power, where the money resides is that change in the capital versus labor share of the economy a warning sign? I mean, if that continues, \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>yes, yes, this one I’m not going to hedge on. So so capital is inherently much more concentrated than labor. You know, the cool thing about labor, even though it’s pretty uneven, like we all have basically one brain.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And like some of them, you know, maybe a little smarter than others, but but, you know, it’s distributed through the economy. You know, no matter how smart you are, you can’t run a whole fortune 500 corporation. So you delegate stuff, and the whole economy has all these delegated decisions to all these different brains. But with capital, you can concentrate it much more.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And empirically, you know, the income from capital is much more concentrated in a small fraction of the people. So, you know, we were saying earlier that economic power begets political power. So that’s something I worry about. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>I mean, what would that world even look like? You know, I’ve looked at some other countries that have labor share that’s like much lower.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Yeah, labor share of income is much lower. And it’s not a good set of countries. They’re like resource cursed countries that Saudi Arabia, it’s like mineral mining countries. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly, And you get these like gated communities and these people who have a lot of wealth. I was talking to somebody from a Latin American country. She’s very wealthy. And she said, you know, all the wealthy people in my country are in prisons.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And like, what do you mean they’re in prison? She said, well, the prison of our own construction, like we can’t go outside of our houses when we ever. I get into a car, I have like guards on either side of me\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>It’s like one of those dystopian science fiction movies. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Yeah. What? What interventions could we at least start to prepare for now, economically? And obviously there’s a whole suite of politics and, you know, who we elect and how we organize ourselves as a city. But just thinking about economic policy, what what are what would be some smart things to start thinking about right now.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>So I think we have some levers to push back against this, and that’s why I care about it. So I did write this paper, The Turing Trap, about how it’s a trap to have AI that just replaces and imitates humans. So a couple of things we can push back on. First off, there’s a lot of economic incentives right now that I think mistakenly steer us towards favoring capital over labor, like in the United States and most countries for that matter.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Tax policy. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Tax policy is much, you know, capitalist taxed much cheaper than labor. So you have two brilliant entrepreneurs, you know, one of which says, I’m going to make a $100 billion company with thousands of employees. And the other ones, I’m going to make $100 billion company with like no employees, but lots of robots. Yeah. The US government says, oh, the first person you know, Alice, you’re going to have to like, pay a lot more taxes.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Your whole organization is going to pay a lot more taxes. And the second one is going to pay less. And, you know, the first rule of taxation is like, whatever you tax more, you get less of. So we’re basically putting our thumb on the scale, saying we’re going to get more capital intensive and less labor intensive. Like for most of history, maybe that didn’t matter that much.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>It wasn’t that much leverage to to do things different ways. Now we really have the potential and there’s a lot of other tax things you can do. My friend Darren Asamoah, who has written a lot about this Pascual Restrepo. So those are some things that we can do. Like, you know, they’re a really hard core. I’m an economist, but I’ve come to think that actually culture and the way people think about it is more important than the like hard dollars.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So here in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, I run into a lot of people who have this mindset that like the goal of AI is to replace humans, and that’s just wrong, I think. And when they all the benchmarks that you see being published, almost all of them are geared towards like, how well can this machine by itself do the task with Andy Hopped and we’ve developed a new set of benchmarks.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>We call them Centaur benchmarks, sort of like part human, part machine. And the the idea is to say, hey guys, think about not how well a machine by itself can do it, but how can a human and machine together do it? And in many cases, in most cases, the human machine can do better than the machine by itself or the human by itself, but it requires a different architecture.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>You know, Doug Engelbart years ago, you know, talked about how we should make machines that amplify humans. Steve Jobs called it bicycles for the mind, and that that philosophy has kind of been lost out a little bit. I want to revive it more. And if we design machines more to to augment humans and to complement what we’re doing, we’re likely to keep people in the loop.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And ultimately, I think that’s going to not just be fairer. I think it’s going to create a lot more value than trying to get the machine to do everything by itself.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Eric, talking about your your early apprehension of the curve we were in and kind of the trajectory of AI, let’s talk situational awareness for people on the ground level. So outside of OpenAI headquarters here in San Francisco, imagine you’re somebody who works at one of the Kaiser hospitals. Great day to day job. How are you going to know that it really is taking off, that you’re inside this exponential, and that this prediction of of a transformational AI era happening pretty fast rather than predictably slow is true.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Like day to day, week to week. What what should I be watching for? \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And if you’re a reporter with an angle, you can you can definitely find anecdotes that support your story. And you’ll have some men in the street who tells you what you know, what the people. And I’ve been reading those and I just don’t know how to aggregate them. So, you know, I’m a data person. I’m a statistician. I’m an economist.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So yeah, we can we can you can take a look at that. I just want is it happening dot Stanford. Yes. All right. \u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>AI is advancing at a breakneck pace, but how quickly will that \u003cstrong>actually\u003c/strong> transform the economy? Dream Machines hosts Alexis Madrigal and Robin Sloan talk to Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson about what the data can tell us so far, why previous technological revolutions took decades to reshape everyday life, and whether this time will be different. They discuss early signs that AI may already be affecting young workers, what happens to the career ladder when machines take over junior tasks, and where the biggest challenges — and opportunities — lie.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Guest: Erik Brynjolfsson, economist and Director of the \u003ca href=\"https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/\">Stanford Digital Economy Lab\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-embed is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube\">\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/5HI0RBP-jDk'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/5HI0RBP-jDk'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/div>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>Episode transcript\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is a computer-generated transcript. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:00:00 – 00:00:06:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Is this a kind of technology that inherently leads to higher concentrations of wealth and therefore a power?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>00:00:06:14 – 00:00:12:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> I don’t want to say inherently, because I don’t want to be in the prediction business, I want to be in the design business. But there’s a lot of strong forces,the AI itself tends to work better at large scale. That’s why they’re raising hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars. You make the model bigger and it works better. So they said, let’s make it even bigger. And it just keeps working. So that tends to lead to kind of a bit of a winner take most outcome.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:31:16 – 00:00:39:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: I’m Alexis Madrigal,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin\u003c/strong>: I’m Robin Sloan, and this is Dream Machines. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>It’s a podcast about how AI works, also about how it feels.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:39:14 – 00:00:49:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And of course, we make it right here in San Francisco, where it’s all happening. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>And nobody really disagrees at this point that AI is going to transform the economy in some way. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:49:16 – 00:00:54:23\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But one of the questions that is still really open and hotly debated is how fast that is going to happen.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:00:55:01 – 00:01:12:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And also the question of how would we know that it’s being transformed? You certainly read a lot of headlines and see a lot of stock prices go up. But like what’s actually happening out there in offices?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Do we have the economic data that we need to make sense? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Yeah, exactly. It’s sort of the question of like, what would be the canary in the coal mine?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:01:12:12 – 00:01:25:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And as we were looking around for answers to these questions, turns out there’s a paper called \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin & Alexis: \u003c/strong>Canary in the Coal Mine \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Out of the Stanford Digital Economy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Yeah. That’s right. And it’s the work of a scholar there named Erik Brynjolfsson.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:01:25:08 – 00:01:46:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He was at MIT for 30 years before coming to Stanford, very early in his understanding of the potentially transformative effects of AI, and has become one of the folks who is really trying to shine a light into the kind of mysterious recesses of the economy so that the rest of us can know, like what is happening and how fast.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:01:46:23 – 00:01:47:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Yeah,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:01:47:11 – 00:02:08:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Because it really matters the time scale. Right? If we have this incredible transformation in three months or in three years or in three decades, it will mean tremendously different society. And we need someone who can tell us, like, where are we on this, on this chart? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>So here is our very own canary in the coal mine Erik\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:02:08:22 – 00:02:10:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Brynjolfsson.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:02:10:11 – 00:02:25:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>There’s a lot of, as you know, definitions of AI, you know, superintelligence, AGI, you know, just like advanced AI, I’m quite taken by the definition that you used in sort of a formative ad.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:02:25:22 – 00:02:47:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Yeah. Transformative AI. You laid this out in a research agenda, you know, for kind of the, the community last year. And there’s a bit more to it. But the core of it is, as you said, we’ll know it’s transformative AI because it’ll have this significant economic effect. It’ll accelerate economic growth from sort of the the baseline that we’ve become accustomed to for a long time now, maybe around 2%.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:02:47:17 – 00:03:09:10\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’ll it’ll multiply that by by 3 or 5 times almost without talking about AI specifically, it’d be really interesting to have you dramatize like what that means for for an economy. You know, if that did happen, \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>transformative AI?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Transformative AI that and that growth rate like, like how would that change our our day, our week, our year, our jobs?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:03:09:11 – 00:03:35:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Well, these way for me to think of it as by analogy. And so we don’t know for sure what’s going to happen going forward. But we can look back at, say, the industrial revolution. And in the Second Machine Age, Andy McAfee and I wrote about how we went through this big transition from an agricultural society to an industrial society, and we call it the second Machine age, because now we’re having in the early stages of a second big transition like that.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:03:35:20 – 00:03:56:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The first one was about machines doing what our muscles could do, an animal muscles, and that took growth from being sort of growing very, very slow tenths of a percent per year to growing about 2% per year, which may not sound like much, but you compound it. And now we’re like 30 or 50 times richer than our ancestors were a couple hundred years ago.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:03:56:03 – 00:04:13:13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I think that doing now, now, we were able to use machines to augment our minds, our brains. And I think that’s going to be at least as big as what the Industrial Revolution did. And it will transform society at least as much, not just in growth rate, but also like, you know, just what we do in our daily lives.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:04:13:13 – 00:04:33:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Think of the way farmers versus people in factories or modern society, how different that is. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Using that analogy, I feel like I should probably know this, but during the Industrial revolution, did people’s lives change in a decade in terms of the kind of work they did, how they worked in the world, the kind of goods and services they, they had access to?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:04:33:01 – 00:04:53:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Did it? Was it more of a generational change, like what was the pace of that?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> It was actually pretty slow. In fact, there’s something called Engels pause. This period of like several decades, 40, 50 years where there wasn’t much of an improvement in living standards. If you read Charles Dickens, you know, actually life could be pretty miserable, even worse than it was for the people living in agricultural society.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:04:53:06 – 00:05:11:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>As life expectancy declined, people got shorter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Yeah, yeah. All that smoke and soot and and kids working in factories and stuff, you know, it was pretty miserable for the majority of the population. But under the surface, things were changing. And you were beginning to have this productivity gain. But it took a while and eventually it started taking off.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:05:11:11 – 00:05:19:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This time around, it’s also going to take longer than I think some of our friends here in San Francisco and Silicon Valley think, but but certainly a lot faster than the last time around\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:05:19:19 – 00:05:24:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Let’s go back into the historical example. I think it’s actually really useful for people to think about this, right?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:05:24:05 – 00:05:44:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You have this general purpose technology of \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>general purpose technology, \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>which is a term of art, I love it, \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>and also I do we were talking about this earlier. I it had not occurred to me that it’s the twin GPT. It seems a little uncanny\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong>. Yeah. So my, my my friend and student, former student Daniel Rock, he wrote a great paper with some folks at OpenAI called GPT RPGs.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:05:44:12 – 00:06:03:18\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Yeah, generative pre-trained transformers and general purpose technologies. It used to be when I said GPT to economists, we all knew we were talking about general purpose technologies, but the AI people have pretty much stolen that acronym \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>and branded it. Yeah. And for the into it into a global brand\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> So be it. Yeah. But but but general purpose technology is pretty much what drives all economic growth.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:06:03:18 – 00:06:23:15\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s all these inventions, but there’s just a handful that really raise our living standards. The steam engine was the first really powerful general purpose technology electricity, computers and now AI, which is kind of like the mother of all general purpose technology, I think. So, you know, Demis Hassabis has this. I was over at Google DeepMind a few weeks ago in London.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:06:23:16 – 00:06:41:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They had this mission statement. They want to let me see if I can get it right. They want to solve intelligence and then use that to solve all the other problems in the world. So, you know, modest little mission statement. But but, you know, there’s a lot of truth to the fact that if you really could solve intelligence, there’s so many other things you could solve.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:06:41:11 – 00:06:56:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Yeah, that is, of course, if you trusted that that’s what people who had solved intelligence would actually do with this intelligence. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Well, that’s a very good question. There’s a bunch of things that you can use it for. And also, to be fair, as I’ve come to think harder about the problem, intelligence is not the be all and end all.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:06:56:01 – 00:07:06:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A lot of very smart people think and wish it was, but when you get into the real world, you know, just look around us. There’s there’s lots of PhDs in the economy and they don’t like, rule the economy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:06:12 – 00:07:14:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You know, you go into a I was at the Starbucks across the street just before coming here, and you walk in there and l\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: Seven PhDs just right in there.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:14:05 – 00:07:14:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: Yeah. Imagine\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:14:17 – 00:07:27:21\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>imagine you pull up with a bus and you say, okay, good news. You know, we’ve got Einstein, we’ve got a bus of 200 Einsteins. They’re going to come help you. I think the manager over there be like, oh, well, like, do they know how to push a broom? I mean, what are they going to do? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>I love that\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:27:23 – 00:07:33:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>because that that kind of argument and just even that that playful vision gets into the real crunchy details of like, what happens in an economy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:33:19 – 00:07:54:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s not just, you know, sugar and eggs, whip them together and voila, you get growth and productivity. It’s really crunchy. And the thing I like best about your work is that kind of ongoing attempt to to dig in and sort of look for signals. You had the paper called Canary in a coal mine, which feels like exactly what we need most right now.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:07:54:09 – 00:08:11:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>We need those kind of early signals. You know, they might be warning signals in some cases. They might be like hopeful beacons. We’re going to steer towards \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: the Canaries. metaphor for is a little dark at times. Yeah. We didn’t really mean it that way. We meant it in the more general metaphors, like an early warning signal. Yeah. And it’s very uneven.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:08:11:20 – 00:08:27:13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And that’s part of it. You know, going back to the intelligence point, you know, I just want to finish that earlier point about about these general purpose technologies. They tend to take a long time to play out, because even when you speed up one part, there are other parts that are bottlenecks or weak links to take longer to emerge.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:08:27:17 – 00:09:00:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But that that gets to your question about the Canaries paper, where we did find that there are certain jobs that are already beginning to be affected and others that are actually going the other way, that are becoming more valuable. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>That’s interesting. I mean, so one of the findings, at least as I read it, you can correct me if I’m wrong, is that if there is an impact, it seems to be maybe, as you’d expect on entry level workers, the people who whose contributions can perhaps most seamlessly be replaced by Claude or ChatGPT or whatever.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:00:23 – 00:09:14:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>I didn’t necessarily expect that in Vance. I should credit my coauthors, Baratunde and Russian, who did most of the heavy lifting on this, and the folks at ADP who provided all the data. And we went into it, you know, with with a blank slate. We just were open to whatever. Actually,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:14:10 – 00:09:16:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>the first cut at it, we looked at the top line.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:16:15 – 00:09:32:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s not much happening, actually. You know, the overall labor market, it wasn’t that much happening. And we’re kicking around like, okay, maybe write a paper that all these headlines, these newspaper articles are all kind of overblown. And then, you know, Borat and Rudy looked in a little more deeply and they said, wait a minute. There’s like, there’s one group that’s really being affected.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:32:14 – 00:09:36:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Early career workers, especially in the most exposed occupations.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:36:21 – 00:09:50:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So one of the things you can do with you can take all the jobs in the economy. 950, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And each of them, you can break down to a bundle of individual tasks. And once you do, at that fine grained level, you can really make headway.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:09:50:19 – 00:10:14:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s hard to say whether that AI will replace a radiologist, some people say, but it’s much easier to look at a specific thing. Can it read a medical image? And that’s one of the 26 things that a radiologist does when you break it down to those tasks. And by the way, the paper that did that the best was this GPT are GPTs paper we were just talking about, when you break it down that way, you can rank all the occupations.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:14:15 – 00:10:14:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:14:23 – 00:10:24:05\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>then when you also look at the age, you find that the combination of the most exposed occupations with the youngest workers had about a 16% decline in employment.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:24:05 – 00:10:33:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin\u003c/strong>: So there’s a couple threads to pull on there and I want to do them both. One is the young workers, kind of the entry level workers and just the whole idea of like careers and and experience and everything else.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:33:03 – 00:10:44:17\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the other one is the data. My perception is that right now we as a country, a society, maybe a planet probably don’t have as much data as we would like.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:44:19 – 00:10:45:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Oh, no.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:45:09 – 00:10:46:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>it’s a tragedy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:10:46:04 – 00:11:01:05\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I spent a lot of time with our friends in Washington who are, like, working in the statistical agencies, and they’re having their budgets cut. It’s getting, you know, there’s more and more need for better data and less and less resources going into it. I think it’s incredibly foolish. One of the things we’re doing at Stanford is trying to help with that.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:01:06 – 00:11:17:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>We created something just last month called the Stanford AI Economic Indicators. That is like a dashboard that brings together all this data from a lot of private sources, as well as public sources, so people can look at it in one place instead of all these sort of dueling anecdotes, you know, everyone can see the data\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:17:11 – 00:11:31:07\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>The timing around this technological change of these major changes feels to me like it should be a deflationary narrative about how quickly AI is going to be deployed. But I’m kind of hearing from you, like sort of the opposite of that,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:31:07 – 00:11:45:21\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>that that you feel like there are that, that we are going to deploy this much faster than in these previous instances, even though historically we haven’t been able to do that, that it’s just there’s all this inertia across so many different sectors.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:45:21 – 00:11:54:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And it also sounds to me a little bit from the data board that like that is what’s happening. It is taking longer, you know, and I know both of us well.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:54:10 – 00:11:56:01\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Erik: Well, I think both of those things are true.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:11:56:02 – 00:12:11:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>What I would say, you know, I wrote about the need for these complementary investments. I wrote a paper called about the productivity paradox, about the first wave and then about this wave, and most importantly, a paper called The Productivity J curve with Chad Stephenson and Daniel Rock.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:11:02 – 00:12:13:07\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And they all make this point that, you know,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:13:07 – 00:12:31:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>just because you have amazing technology, it doesn’t translate into productivity, business changes, transformation of the economy. That said that said, I think it’s happening a lot faster this time than with the Industrial revolution or with electricity, which also took like 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:31:10 – 00:12:34:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s just a lot of structural reasons why it’s going faster.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:34:08 – 00:12:53:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For one thing, you know, the internet has been built out, so we can just go from 0 to 100 million users of ChatGPT and like, you know, what was it, 60 days and now it’s a billion. Yeah, but like just going super fast and and a lot of the cognitive work, you can, you know, like software, you can do it a lot faster now than you could.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:12:53:07 – 00:13:10:21\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s still there’s still a lot of bottlenecks which you know, so I find myself sort of between these worlds when I talk to most economists and, you know, in New York or Washington or in businesses, you know, they see all the the structural barriers. When I talk to the guys at the Frontier Labs, they’re like, oh, we’re going to have RSI, recursive self-improvement.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:13:10:21 – 00:13:26:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s all going to happen super fast. And I point out a bottleneck and they’re like, oh, AI will solve that. Yeah, yeah. And I’m kind of I’m kind of between them I put myself, you know, they’re like probably two orders of magnitude apart from each other in terms of rate of speed. And I’m at the geometric mean like one order of magnitude.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:13:26:11 – 00:13:45:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And so I do think it’s faster than most people in the rest of the world are ready for. And that’s why we create that statement about we must act now. I do also, at the same time think that that most of the technologists, they haven’t really spent as much time in big companies as I have and realized like how hard it is to get them to change.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:13:45:04 – 00:14:11:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: Can I ask this though, knowing that you have a company that is essentially trying to accelerate the change? Is there an argument to be made that letting this take some time is actually a good thing for society? Because this kind of disjunction in a labor market, or in just the value of intelligence or any of the ways that we might describe this transformation, is actually kind of a good thing to let it settle in more slowly.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:14:11:16 – 00:14:36:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>I agree with your core point, and but what I would say is that we need to speed up our understanding. We need to speed up our adaptation to it. We need to speed up our reskilling and, you know, be prepared or preparation. At the same time, I’m very sympathetic to the idea that those core capabilities, you know, there was just another statement that come out, these statements are all coming out about what they call it pacing, pacing, pacing the frontier.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:14:36:13 – 00:14:39:17\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Right. Exactly. Which is, you know, that’s on the capability side. So,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:14:39:17 – 00:14:54:10\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>so the way I think about it is that there are these two lines. One of them is skyrocketing, which is the capabilities. The other one is our ability to adapt to it, which is barely moving. And that gap is where most of the big problems and challenges and opportunities lie over the next 5 or 10 years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:14:54:11 – 00:15:05:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That’s where all the action is. Until all my economist friends, you should be focusing on that gap. My part of it is to close the gap from the bottom and like, speed up our understanding. Other people can think about the technology.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:15:05:16 – 00:15:12:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> You know, we’re talking about sort of the acceleration of an economy, but there’s also this simultaneous thing that that maybe is different.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:15:12:01 – 00:15:31:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like maybe there’s a historical analogy for this, maybe there’s not. I think of it almost as like the weirding of the economy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik:\u003c/strong> Yes\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>And this connects to a couple of things that we’ve talked about. You know, the idea that suddenly there’s no such thing as an entry level worker. Instead, you can only be, you know, a senior software engineer with an army of AI bots, and you’re really good at them.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:15:31:00 – 00:15:52:21\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But it raises the question of like, where do senior engineers or senior people of any kind come from anymore? Also, you know, again, to to make that industrial Revolution analogy, it’s interesting to consider that when you replace your, you know, horses going around a post with a steam engine, even though that’s new and kind of radical, you fundamentally do understand how that works.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:15:52:23 – 00:16:12:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Whereas when you replace your software engineering team with bots, you probably don’t understand how it works anymore. Do these differences I mean, do these matter? Should we really be looking closely at these, this this weirdness?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong> I mean, those are those two parts of your question are so different in my mind. Sure, sure. Yeah. I mean, they’re both weird.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:16:12:20 – 00:16:28:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>We can talk. Yeah, I’ll put them on that. So let me let me do one at a time because I think they’re both interesting to talk about. So on the on the junior versus senior this is this is a real problem. Like we describe earlier the data that there’s less demand for these young workers. But where do the middle managers come from.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:16:28:08 – 00:16:44:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Where are the senior workers come from. And you need them. And you need people with that kind of judgment. And we used to have this grand bargain where people come in sometimes do some kind of boring Scott work. But in the process, sort of by osmosis, they would learn how the business ran, learn how to be a lawyer or a doctor or investment bank or whatever.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:16:44:11 – 00:17:01:23\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now they don’t have that opportunity. And I think part of the answer has to be we have to like, consciously and explicitly train them. I was talking to some folks at Infosys and, you know, they their junior people are very much in the bullseye of not being needed as much, but they tell me that they’re still hiring a bunch of them.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:17:01:23 – 00:17:23:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But now instead of having them do some of that boring work that AI could now do, they are explicitly training them with an AI system. Actually, AI can be a really good tutor and it can help them learn faster. So that’s that’s part of the. That’s one approach to the answer. I think it’s going to be kind of a new social contract that we have to think about, because we don’t just abandon this whole generation of people.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:17:23:12 – 00:17:44:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I mean, I’ll tell you a little bit of a, of a of a sad story. Well, hopefully it has a good ending. A student came to me in my office a couple of months ago graduating from Stanford. Pretty good school. And she said, I don’t have a job. My friends don’t have jobs. Is my generation doomed? And I was like, whoa, yeah.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:17:44:04 – 00:17:59:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I mean, you’re a Stanford student. You should be optimistic. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis:\u003c/strong> I know I’m a mindful optimist what do you mean?.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong> You should be. You’re graduating. And what I tried to say was, look, you know, I don’t want to sugarcoat it. There’s a bunch of jobs disappearing, like you just said, but the other on the other side, you know, you can use these tools to do things you never could have before.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:17:59:14 – 00:18:16:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You’ve got superpowers where you can do vibe coding and create all sorts of software. That would have been impossible five years ago or even one year ago, and you needed to lean into those new possibilities. There’s more startups being started than ever before, because a lot of people are seeing this opportunity to create things they couldn’t have done before.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:18:16:08 – 00:18:33:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So, you know, that’s what I tried to teach my class. I have a master class that also does this, but I really want people to, you know, you know, I understand the downside, but I think there’s almost too much emphasis on that. And there should be more of a leaning in to AI allowing you to do new things you never could have done before.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:18:33:22 – 00:18:55:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They’re harder to see because a lot of them didn’t exist before, but that’s where the opportunity is. And that’s the part I want to speed up, is that is the transition to those new opportunities. I don’t want to just ossify everything and try to freeze everything in place. I don’t think that’s the strategy. We need to be nimble and have that more flexible opportunity to create new jobs, new opportunities.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:18:55:15 – 00:19:16:15\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>another recent historical analogy to this is, you know, self-driving cars, where we essentially see them being, generally speaking, safer drivers than human drivers. But when they do make a mistake, it tends to be sort of a novel mistake or the kind of the way the system breaks down is we could not have anticipated, you know, power outage.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:19:16:18 – 00:19:39:05\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: Yeah, it’s like an alien intelligence. Yeah. It is it exactly. Respect.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> They respect the cones too much. You know yourself driving cars. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly. They worship the code, but they don’t worship some other things. And, you know, as an economist, actually, you know, this is can be a little dangerous and off putting. It’s also an opportunity like for in economics, gains from trade happen when there’s two entities that are very different from each other.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:19:39:05 – 00:19:55:13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If they’re identical to each other, there’s not much room for for gains from trade. So actually mostly encourage the folks at the Frontier Labs to lean into making the A’s really good at things that humans are not good at, and let us be good at the things we’re good at. I think too often they do it the other way around.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:19:55:14 – 00:20:14:10\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They’re trying to, like, smooth the edges and and make them good at things that are that’s hard for machines and easy for us, like, you know, buttoning a shirt or, or and ultimately, the fact that it’s an alien intelligence means that we can lean on it to do some amazing things. But there will still be a role for humans, which I think is important.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:14:11 – 00:20:14:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:14:20 – 00:20:31:08\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I think it’s good to not replace all the things that humans are doing. I wrote this paper, The Turing Trap, where I basically argued it’s a mistake. It’s to do what Alan Turing said, which is make AI that’s a perfect imitation of humans. We should make it different so we each have something to contribute.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:31:10 – 00:20:36:23\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>You know, it’s funny, we can flip this around, you know, almost perfectly here on the podcast and in are there conversations.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:37:00 – 00:20:56:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Alexis and I are cautious and often critical of AI, particularly the industry, but we’re also quite enchanted by the the spaces inside these models. You know, these these mysterious high dimensional spaces and their capacity and the things they seem to be able to organize and then kind of cross connect in ways that humans can’t, certainly not at that scale.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:20:56:09 – 00:21:13:05\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And it makes me think of, you know, the old ancient, almost economics debate between central planning and sort of, you know, action at the edges. And you, of course, know this well. But for folks listening to the podcast, there’s a few different ways you can organize an economy. You could have, you know, yeah, you could have planning. Yeah.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:21:13:06 – 00:21:30:01\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Robin and Alexis deciding exactly how much to make of everything, you know, all fashionable t shirts and and cool. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>What a great world that would be. Yeah. And you know, this, this has the benefit of coherency. And you can actually have a plan and execute it. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>It can be aligned with the values of your society, at least supposedly in theory, all these things.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:21:30:01 – 00:21:49:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>But then way over on the other side, you have the idea of you have the sense that the real information about how the world works and what people want and what the problems are, of course, where they’re at the edges, you know, in people’s lives all distributed in their kitchens, in their businesses. Sort of the Haken view of like the great sensor of the market.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:21:49:18 – 00:22:12:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now it does seem so that was that was the story, you know, at least up until 2020, 2023. It does seem like maybe we have these machines now with a capacity that could change that balance a little bit. So first of all, I ask you, like do you see some of that potential. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Sure. No. This is a big like let me just say you’ve heard I’m pretty optimistic, excited about the productivity potential and creating a enormous amount of wealth.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:22:12:02 – 00:22:31:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>One of the things that I’m most worried about is it could be very badly distributed, where everything gets really, really centralized. And the core reason for that is what you just brought up. You know, Friedrich Hayek wrote this amazing paper called The Use of Knowledge in Society, which, you know, articulate what you just said, that most useful knowledge is, like widely dispersed in the economy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:22:31:07 – 00:22:47:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like, you know, does this do people in this neighborhood like peppermint ice cream or is this truck half empty? And maybe we could put some more stuff on it or whatever. There’s all this, like detailed information. And he argued that there’s no way a central planner, even guy’s as smart as you two, could make all the decisions in the economy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:22:47:04 – 00:23:06:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s just too much of this detailed information. And that was totally true for the 20th century and up until recently. But Zoe Hitzig and I have written a paper called AI’s Use of Knowledge in Society, where we argue that, wait a minute, you know, you could actually go take these trillions of parameters and make all sorts of decisions.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:23:07:00 – 00:23:32:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You could use the Internet of Things and other techniques to bring data and bring it all to, say, Bentonville, Arkansas, to pick up arbitrary city. And you’d be able to know all sorts of information about what’s happening and make decisions. And it’s actually beginning to happen. You know, when you look at the data and big centralized retailers are out competing, those mom and pop mom, mom and pop shops, they know more about what people want in each neighborhood and which trucks are empty.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:23:32:13 – 00:23:41:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They have all that detailed information that hikes. It would be impossible, which is great for efficiency, but it may not be the best thing for freedom and democracy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:23:41:21 – 00:23:43:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>we need to think hard.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:23:43:02 – 00:24:07:04\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now, while we have some optionality, how can we design a world where we maintain our freedom, maintain our decentralization of decision making, and that if we go too far down the path of disempowering people, it may be very hard to reverse course later. And for what it’s worth, everyone’s noticed. It’s kind of beginning to happen, right? And we better take it seriously because we go much further down that path.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:24:07:04 – 00:24:08:03\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’ll be too late. Yeah,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:24:08:03 – 00:24:34:16\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>I did want to ask you. I mean, this is from your book, Second Machine Age, of course, you coauthored \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>with Andy. Andy McAfee. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Alexis: And you have to paraphrase Martin Luther King Jr. The arc of history is long, but it bends towards justice. We think the data support this. We’ve seen not just vast increases in wealth, but also, on the whole, more freedom, more social justice, less violence, and less less harsh conditions for the least fortunate and greater opportunities for more and more people.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:24:34:20 – 00:24:52:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>I think, like there have been the majority of my life, I think I would have more or less agreed with this. I think in the last ten years, my own kind of priors have been challenged on this. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Not just you. Yeah, no, we wrote that in 2014. I’m glad that I just checked. And it’s like it’s got more and more sales and citations.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:24:52:02 – 00:25:10:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So I’m glad that it’s it’s got legs that way. And that was sort of maybe like the peak of this,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Alexis: Obama era story optimism. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly. But but speaking of Obama, you know, he modified that quote and he said that it bends. You know, I’m going to misquote him, but but the gist of what he was saying was, got a push on the ark.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:25:10:20 – 00:25:27:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis\u003c/strong>: You got to push on it. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik\u003c/strong>: It doesn’t happen automatically. We won’t just sit back and watch it happen. And that’s very much, you know, you mentioned I call myself a mindful optimist. You know, that the arc of history bends if and only if we push it. And I think lately it’s been going the wrong way. It’s also long, like Martin Luther King said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:25:27:06 – 00:25:44:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So you know, it’s not going to be monotonic where it always improves every month or every year. So I think it’s fair to say we’ve had some backsliding and some bad things have happened. I’m still optimistic, maybe a little less optimistic than I was in 2014, but I’m hopeful that that work harder. But but this is exactly why I do.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:25:44:06 – 00:26:13:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>What I do is I’m not here to predict the future. I’m here to say, here are some possible futures, and here are some levers that matter. And we need to push on them, because most of us do want not just more abundance, but also more freedom and shared prosperity. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Can I can I keep pushing on this one a little bit just because I think there’s, you know, even some people in this building here at KQED who their their biggest concern about AI, they have they have many environmental this and other things.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:26:13:02 – 00:26:13:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:26:13:08 – 00:26:42:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>it’s really about particularly being here in San Francisco. You really see it the concentration of wealth. And then, you know, our city politics has been taken over by tech wealth. It’s like it’s also the concentration of power that that goes along \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Those tend to go together, don’t they.? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Yes. Yeah. And I guess the, the maybe more difficult version of this question is do you think that AI, as a result of the what the frontier models need, the amount of capital that you need to deploy to do these things?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:26:42:10 – 00:27:04:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Is this a kind of technology that inherently leads to higher concentrations of wealth and therefore a power? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>I don’t want to say inherently, because I don’t want to be in the prediction business, I want to be in the design business. But there’s a lot of strong forces, and there’s two sets that are particularly obvious to me. One is, you know, the scaling laws and the fact that the AI itself tends to work better at large scale.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:27:04:22 – 00:27:28:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That’s why they’re raising hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars to build bigger and bigger data centers. But yeah, borrowing and and, you know, there’s just this amazing thing that Dario Modi and others noted that you make the model bigger and it works better. So they said, let’s make it even bigger. And it just keeps working. So that tends to lead to kind of a bit of a winner take most outcome.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:27:28:14 – 00:27:44:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Actually, I’ve been somewhat surprised how many frontier labs there still are. It hasn’t all just concentrating to one singleton. But you know, who knows where that’s going to go. It certainly you have to be pretty big to be a player in that, but the one that I’m more concerned about is the other, like 90% of the economy,\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:27:44:22 – 00:27:56:18\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>that, you know, whether you’re in retail or manufacturing or health or whatever, you know, having decentralized information may not be as competitive with having it become more centralized.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:27:56:18 – 00:28:15:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And that could also lead. And it has been if you look at the data, there has been more concentration. So we need to think harder about how do we decentralize it. I mean, part of one of the answers that I would put forward is this idea of pushing AI to complement humans rather than substitute for them. But we need to look at all levers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:28:15:22 – 00:28:41:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin:\u003c/strong> Thinking about that discussion about centralization, about kind of where the power, where the money resides is that change in the capital versus labor share of the economy a warning sign? I mean, if that continues, \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>yes, yes, this one I’m not going to hedge on. So so capital is inherently much more concentrated than labor. You know, the cool thing about labor, even though it’s pretty uneven, like we all have basically one brain.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:28:41:09 – 00:28:57:15\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And like some of them, you know, maybe a little smarter than others, but but, you know, it’s distributed through the economy. You know, no matter how smart you are, you can’t run a whole fortune 500 corporation. So you delegate stuff, and the whole economy has all these delegated decisions to all these different brains. But with capital, you can concentrate it much more.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:28:57:15 – 00:29:19:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And empirically, you know, the income from capital is much more concentrated in a small fraction of the people. So, you know, we were saying earlier that economic power begets political power. So that’s something I worry about. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>I mean, what would that world even look like? You know, I’ve looked at some other countries that have labor share that’s like much lower.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:29:19:10 – 00:29:39:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Yeah, labor share of income is much lower. And it’s not a good set of countries. They’re like resource cursed countries that Saudi Arabia, it’s like mineral mining countries. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Exactly, And you get these like gated communities and these people who have a lot of wealth. I was talking to somebody from a Latin American country. She’s very wealthy. And she said, you know, all the wealthy people in my country are in prisons.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:29:39:00 – 00:29:46:22\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And like, what do you mean they’re in prison? She said, well, the prison of our own construction, like we can’t go outside of our houses when we ever. I get into a car, I have like guards on either side of me\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:29:47:00 – 00:30:08:11\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s like one of those dystopian science fiction movies. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Yeah. What? What interventions could we at least start to prepare for now, economically? And obviously there’s a whole suite of politics and, you know, who we elect and how we organize ourselves as a city. But just thinking about economic policy, what what are what would be some smart things to start thinking about right now.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:30:08:12 – 00:30:31:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>So I think we have some levers to push back against this, and that’s why I care about it. So I did write this paper, The Turing Trap, about how it’s a trap to have AI that just replaces and imitates humans. So a couple of things we can push back on. First off, there’s a lot of economic incentives right now that I think mistakenly steer us towards favoring capital over labor, like in the United States and most countries for that matter.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:30:31:13 – 00:30:55:00\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Tax policy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Tax policy is much, you know, capitalist taxed much cheaper than labor. So you have two brilliant entrepreneurs, you know, one of which says, I’m going to make a $100 billion company with thousands of employees. And the other ones, I’m going to make $100 billion company with like no employees, but lots of robots. Yeah. The US government says, oh, the first person you know, Alice, you’re going to have to like, pay a lot more taxes.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:30:55:00 – 00:31:11:06\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Your whole organization is going to pay a lot more taxes. And the second one is going to pay less. And, you know, the first rule of taxation is like, whatever you tax more, you get less of. So we’re basically putting our thumb on the scale, saying we’re going to get more capital intensive and less labor intensive. Like for most of history, maybe that didn’t matter that much.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:31:11:06 – 00:31:34:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It wasn’t that much leverage to to do things different ways. Now we really have the potential and there’s a lot of other tax things you can do. My friend Darren Asamoah, who has written a lot about this Pascual Restrepo. So those are some things that we can do. Like, you know, they’re a really hard core. I’m an economist, but I’ve come to think that actually culture and the way people think about it is more important than the like hard dollars.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:31:34:02 – 00:31:59:13\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So here in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, I run into a lot of people who have this mindset that like the goal of AI is to replace humans, and that’s just wrong, I think. And when they all the benchmarks that you see being published, almost all of them are geared towards like, how well can this machine by itself do the task with Andy Hopped and we’ve developed a new set of benchmarks.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:31:59:13 – 00:32:18:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>We call them Centaur benchmarks, sort of like part human, part machine. And the the idea is to say, hey guys, think about not how well a machine by itself can do it, but how can a human and machine together do it? And in many cases, in most cases, the human machine can do better than the machine by itself or the human by itself, but it requires a different architecture.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:32:18:20 – 00:32:41:15\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You know, Doug Engelbart years ago, you know, talked about how we should make machines that amplify humans. Steve Jobs called it bicycles for the mind, and that that philosophy has kind of been lost out a little bit. I want to revive it more. And if we design machines more to to augment humans and to complement what we’re doing, we’re likely to keep people in the loop.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:32:41:15 – 00:32:48:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And ultimately, I think that’s going to not just be fairer. I think it’s going to create a lot more value than trying to get the machine to do everything by itself.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:32:48:20 – 00:33:23:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Robin: \u003c/strong>Eric, talking about your your early apprehension of the curve we were in and kind of the trajectory of AI, let’s talk situational awareness for people on the ground level. So outside of OpenAI headquarters here in San Francisco, imagine you’re somebody who works at one of the Kaiser hospitals. Great day to day job. How are you going to know that it really is taking off, that you’re inside this exponential, and that this prediction of of a transformational AI era happening pretty fast rather than predictably slow is true.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:33:23:20 – 00:33:44:12\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like day to day, week to week. What what should I be watching for? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong>Well, you can come to the AI economic indicators and we’ll have we’ll have a monthly update of all those metrics. You know, I’m not I’m not joking about that because I just see so many anecdotes and stories. And honestly, it’s a little frustrating because, you know, every month there’s hundreds of thousands of jobs destroyed, hundreds of thousands created.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:33:44:12 – 00:34:01:02\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And if you’re a reporter with an angle, you can you can definitely find anecdotes that support your story. And you’ll have some men in the street who tells you what you know, what the people. And I’ve been reading those and I just don’t know how to aggregate them. So, you know, I’m a data person. I’m a statistician. I’m an economist.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:34:01:02 – 00:34:21:14\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So so, you know, getting the stuff aggregated, I think is the way to do it. The problem is that most of our indicators are kind of lagging indicators. And we need more so forward looking leading indicators. And we’re trying to invest in creating those. But but I think that that’s my answer. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alexis: \u003c/strong>Promise me when the day comes that you’re like, oh, you’re just going to put it all in one big blink tech.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:34:21:16 – 00:34:42:09\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Unknown\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Yeah. It’s just like a little siren. Yeah, yeah.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Erik: \u003c/strong> Well, we do actually have these color coded like the transformation tracker. We’ve got like the 12 different metrics, and we color code them by like which ones are moving in the direction. Right now only two of the 12 are moving in that direction. You know, above a significant level. They’re all kind of moving a little bit.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:34:42:12 – 00:35:02:19\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So yeah, we can we can you can take a look at that. I just want is it happening dot Stanford. Yes. All right. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>You give me an idea, we’ll put a little sign up sheet that like if you want, we’ll send you a text message. You know, it’ll be like all 12 indicators. 459 on Thursday. Okay. We were officially hitting the singularity.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:35:02:21 – 00:35:16:18\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Okay. Until then, yes, until next Thursday. Yeah. Thank you so much. Thanks for your time. Such a pleasure. Yeah. Wonderful.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>00:35:16:20 – 00:35:20:20\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/california-state-university\">California State University\u003c/a> employees rallied for pay increases at several campuses on Tuesday, as management and union representatives in Hayward negotiated a contract for about 15,000 staffers statewide. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A vocal group of groundskeepers, clerical, academic support and other employees at the nation’s largest four-year public university system cheered after an organizer yelled “Show us the money!” to the university’s bargaining team heading into a session at a Cal State East Bay library room.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Several longtime employees in blue union T-shirts told KQED they resented that the university, which has struggled with multi-billion budget deficits and layoffs in recent years, approved controversial pay raises for campus presidents and top administrators last fall and winter. CSU \u003ca href=\"https://www.calstate.edu/csu-system/transparency-accountability/executive-compensation/Documents/compensation-faq.pdf\">argued\u003c/a> its executive compensation had fallen behind compared to other public universities. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1777\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260812-CSUStrike-FJR-01.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12094955\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260812-CSUStrike-FJR-01.jpg 1777w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260812-CSUStrike-FJR-01-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/260812-CSUStrike-FJR-01-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1777px) 100vw, 1777px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">CSU staffers from Northern California campuses and organizers with the CSU Employees Union rally ahead of a bargaining session at Cal State East Bay in Hayward on Aug. 11, 2026. (Farida Jhabvala Romero)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Who does the job is us, the people, the 9-to-5. So, why don’t we get a yearly raise for the cost of living?” said Carmen Crum, admissions and outreach coordinator for a program supporting low-income, first-generation college students. “The problem here is that staff don’t get raises — higher-ups do.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We just want our fair shake,” said Jerry Gibbs, a student services coordinator handling student transcripts. He has worked at CSU for 25 years. “Everything’s going up around us, right? Gas prices, property taxes. It’s California.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The CSU Employees Union, which represents a total of about 36,000 university workers, said it’s pushing to limit the use of contract and temporary staffers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the top priority since bargaining began in January remains members’ compensation.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>CSU’s budget woes have arguably lightened for the 2026-27 academic year after securing $710 million in new operating funds — mostly from increased state funding, but also tuition revenue and enrollment growth. The university plans to dedicate more than half of those funds to compensation and health benefits, according to a Board of Trustees \u003ca href=\"https://www.calstate.edu/csu-system/board-of-trustees/MeetingHandouts/July%2020-22,%202026/FIN%20Item%203%20-%202026-27%20Final%20Budget%20-%20HANDOUT%20BOTv1.pdf\">presentation\u003c/a> last month. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The CSU is committed to bargaining in good faith with CSUEU and achieving an agreement that recognizes and supports the work of our staff in fulfilling CSU’s mission,” Amy Bentley-Smith, a CSU spokesperson, said in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The protest ahead of Tuesday’s bargaining session comes as CSU, which enrolled more than \u003ca href=\"https://tableau.calstate.edu/views/SelfEnrollmentDashboard/EnrollmentSummary?iframeSizedToWindow=true&:embed=y&:showAppBanner=false&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no\">470,000\u003c/a> students at its 22 universities last year, is \u003ca href=\"https://www.calstate.edu/csu-system/faculty-staff/labor-and-employee-relations/Pages/CSU-Bargaining-Update-Multiple-Units-7-17-26.aspx\">meeting\u003c/a> with multiple units on new or recurring contracts covering tens of thousands in its workforce, including faculty, skilled trades and student workers.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cp>Thousands of San José municipal workers will vote this week on whether to authorize a strike, hoping to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12089834/san-jose-at-a-stalemate-with-its-largest-city-employee-union\">break a monthslong stalemate\u003c/a> in contract talks with the city. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>While a “yes” vote would not immediately launch a strike, it would give union leaders the go-ahead, moving the city closer to its largest work stoppage in 45 years. The two unions — the Municipal Employees’ Federation, AFSCME Local 101 (MEF) and the City Association of Management Personnel, IFPTE Local 21 — represent workers in city libraries, parks, housing and code enforcement. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Members will begin voting Tuesday, the same day the City Council returns from summer recess, and they will continue through Friday. The vote comes after a mediation process last month failed to yield a deal.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-8-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12093645\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-8-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-8-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-8-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A San José City employee holds a sign reading “ready to strike for our services” at Strike School in San José on July 29, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The city has offered the two unions wage increases of 3% in each of the next three fiscal years. The unions are asking for a 4% raise in 2026-27, followed by a 4.5% increase in 2027-28 and a 5.5% hike in 2028-29.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There’s a lot riding on this; we have a lot of members that are hurting and not being able to just sustain their livelihoods here within the city,” said Kyle Wong, a Department of Transportation worker and IFPTE member. “We want to be able to maintain our services at the level that they are and with the institutional knowledge that is so important to us.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San José has long had one of the region’s most thinly staffed municipal workforces. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The unions have argued that without meaningful raises, workers will continue to leave for nearby cities. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“As a resident here, I really enjoy living near where I work,” Wong said. “But it is very hard to do so.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>City leaders contend that San José’s budget outlook constrains their ability to offer wage hikes. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Mayor Matt Mahan said the 3% annual raise offer is “as far as we can go at this moment in time without unacceptable cuts to city services.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The council \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12086842/san-jose-city-budget-new-immigrant-funding-cuts-reserve-spending\">voted in June\u003c/a> to close a $50.3 million shortfall in the 2026-27 spending plan, but city staffers have projected a $26.8 million deficit in the fiscal year beginning next July. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I think we’d all agree it wouldn’t be right for us to further cut library hours or have to shut down a fire station or some other impact like that to give an unsustainable raise,” Mahan said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The two sides are also apart on the use of artificial intelligence in city departments. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A strike by MEF and IFPTE, which collectively represent more than 3,000 workers, would be the largest municipal work stoppage in San José since 1981, when AFSCME workers struck for nine days to advocate for equal pay for female workers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12093643\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.500418643594753;width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">San José City employees attend Strike School in San José on July 29, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In 2023, Mahan was the lone vote against a contract for the two unions. The wage agreement reached at the time \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11958216/san-jose-city-worker-strike-on-hold-after-agreement\">narrowly avoided\u003c/a> a work stoppage that threatened to derail summer camps, permit processing and even flights at San José Mineta International Airport. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It remains to be seen whether the council members will ask the city manager to increase San José’s offer to the unions when they meet in a closed session on Tuesday morning. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The unions are holding the strike authorization votes at large worksites, including City Hall, the airport and the central service yard. Results are expected to be tallied Aug. 17, with a potential strike date announced afterward. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Last month, the unions held “strike schools” at San José First United Methodist Church, across the street from City Hall. Workers chanted, cheered and received a briefing from union leaders on what a work stoppage would entail. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are doing this because we know, because of the way the city has behaved at the bargaining table, that we have to strike to get a deal,” said Charles Allen, union representative for MEF. “Painful, but we have to do it.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Thousands of San José municipal workers will vote this week on whether to authorize a strike, hoping to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12089834/san-jose-at-a-stalemate-with-its-largest-city-employee-union\">break a monthslong stalemate\u003c/a> in contract talks with the city. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>While a “yes” vote would not immediately launch a strike, it would give union leaders the go-ahead, moving the city closer to its largest work stoppage in 45 years. The two unions — the Municipal Employees’ Federation, AFSCME Local 101 (MEF) and the City Association of Management Personnel, IFPTE Local 21 — represent workers in city libraries, parks, housing and code enforcement. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>While a “yes” vote would not immediately launch a strike, it would give union leaders the go-ahead, moving the city closer to its largest work stoppage in 45 years. The two unions — the Municipal Employees’ Federation, AFSCME Local 101 (MEF) and the City Association of Management Personnel, IFPTE Local 21 — represent workers in city libraries, parks, housing and code enforcement. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Members will begin voting Tuesday, the same day the City Council returns from summer recess, and they will continue through Friday. The vote comes after a mediation process last month failed to yield a deal.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The city has offered the two unions wage increases of 3% in each of the next three fiscal years. The unions are asking for a 4% raise in 2026-27, followed by a 4.5% increase in 2027-28 and a 5.5% hike in 2028-29.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The city has offered the two unions wage increases of 3% in each of the next three fiscal years. The unions are asking for a 4% raise in 2026-27, followed by a 4.5% increase in 2027-28 and a 5.5% hike in 2028-29.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“There’s a lot riding on this; we have a lot of members that are hurting and not being able to just sustain their livelihoods here within the city,” said Kyle Wong, a Department of Transportation worker and IFPTE member. “We want to be able to maintain our services at the level that they are and with the institutional knowledge that is so important to us.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“There’s a lot riding on this; we have a lot of members that are hurting and not being able to just sustain their livelihoods here within the city,” said Kyle Wong, a Department of Transportation worker and IFPTE member. “We want to be able to maintain our services at the level that they are and with the institutional knowledge that is so important to us.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>San José has long had one of the region’s most thinly staffed municipal workforces. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The unions have argued that without meaningful raises, workers will continue to leave for nearby cities. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“As a resident here, I really enjoy living near where I work,” Wong said. “But it is very hard to do so.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“As a resident here, I really enjoy living near where I work,” Wong said. “But it is very hard to do so.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>City leaders contend that San José’s budget outlook constrains their ability to offer wage hikes. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Mayor Matt Mahan said the 3% annual raise offer is “as far as we can go at this moment in time without unacceptable cuts to city services.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The council \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12086842/san-jose-city-budget-new-immigrant-funding-cuts-reserve-spending\">voted in June\u003c/a> to close a $50.3 million shortfall in the 2026-27 spending plan, but city staffers have projected a $26.8 million deficit in the fiscal year beginning next July. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The council \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12086842/san-jose-city-budget-new-immigrant-funding-cuts-reserve-spending\">voted in June\u003c/a> to close a $50.3 million shortfall in the 2026-27 spending plan, but city staffers have projected a $26.8 million deficit in the fiscal year beginning next July. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I think we’d all agree it wouldn’t be right for us to further cut library hours or have to shut down a fire station or some other impact like that to give an unsustainable raise,” Mahan said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I think we’d all agree it wouldn’t be right for us to further cut library hours or have to shut down a fire station or some other impact like that to give an unsustainable raise,” Mahan said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The two sides are also apart on the use of artificial intelligence in city departments. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>A strike by MEF and IFPTE, which collectively represent more than 3,000 workers, would be the largest municipal work stoppage in San José since 1981, when AFSCME workers struck for nine days to advocate for equal pay for female workers.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>A strike by MEF and IFPTE, which collectively represent more than 3,000 workers, would be the largest municipal work stoppage in San José since 1981, when AFSCME workers struck for nine days to advocate for equal pay for female workers.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12093643\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.500418643594753;width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">San José City employees attend Strike School in San José on July 29, 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In 2023, Mahan was the lone vote against a contract for the two unions. The wage agreement reached at the time \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11958216/san-jose-city-worker-strike-on-hold-after-agreement\">narrowly avoided\u003c/a> a work stoppage that threatened to derail summer camps, permit processing and even flights at San José Mineta International Airport. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In 2023, Mahan was the lone vote against a contract for the two unions. The wage agreement reached at the time \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11958216/san-jose-city-worker-strike-on-hold-after-agreement\">narrowly avoided\u003c/a> a work stoppage that threatened to derail summer camps, permit processing and even flights at San José Mineta International Airport. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>It remains to be seen whether the council members will ask the city manager to increase San José’s offer to the unions when they meet in a closed session on Tuesday morning. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The unions are holding the strike authorization votes at large worksites, including City Hall, the airport and the central service yard. Results are expected to be tallied Aug. 17, with a potential strike date announced afterward. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Last month, the unions held “strike schools” at San José First United Methodist Church, across the street from City Hall. Workers chanted, cheered and received a briefing from union leaders on what a work stoppage would entail. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We are doing this because we know, because of the way the city has behaved at the bargaining table, that we have to strike to get a deal,” said Charles Allen, union representative for MEF. “Painful, but we have to do it.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We are doing this because we know, because of the way the city has behaved at the bargaining table, that we have to strike to get a deal,” said Charles Allen, union representative for MEF. “Painful, but we have to do it.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "Two city worker unions will hold a strike authorization vote as contract talks remain deadlocked. San José Mayor Matt Mahan has said the city has offered all it can afford. ",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Thousands of San José municipal workers will vote this week on whether to authorize a strike, hoping to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12089834/san-jose-at-a-stalemate-with-its-largest-city-employee-union\">break a monthslong stalemate\u003c/a> in contract talks with the city. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>While a “yes” vote would not immediately launch a strike, it would give union leaders the go-ahead, moving the city closer to its largest work stoppage in 45 years. The two unions — the Municipal Employees’ Federation, AFSCME Local 101 (MEF) and the City Association of Management Personnel, IFPTE Local 21 — represent workers in city libraries, parks, housing and code enforcement. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Members will begin voting Tuesday, the same day the City Council returns from summer recess, and they will continue through Friday. The vote comes after a mediation process last month failed to yield a deal.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-8-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12093645\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-8-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-8-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-8-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A San José City employee holds a sign reading “ready to strike for our services” at Strike School in San José on July 29, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The city has offered the two unions wage increases of 3% in each of the next three fiscal years. The unions are asking for a 4% raise in 2026-27, followed by a 4.5% increase in 2027-28 and a 5.5% hike in 2028-29.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There’s a lot riding on this; we have a lot of members that are hurting and not being able to just sustain their livelihoods here within the city,” said Kyle Wong, a Department of Transportation worker and IFPTE member. “We want to be able to maintain our services at the level that they are and with the institutional knowledge that is so important to us.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San José has long had one of the region’s most thinly staffed municipal workforces. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The unions have argued that without meaningful raises, workers will continue to leave for nearby cities. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“As a resident here, I really enjoy living near where I work,” Wong said. “But it is very hard to do so.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>City leaders contend that San José’s budget outlook constrains their ability to offer wage hikes. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Mayor Matt Mahan said the 3% annual raise offer is “as far as we can go at this moment in time without unacceptable cuts to city services.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The council \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12086842/san-jose-city-budget-new-immigrant-funding-cuts-reserve-spending\">voted in June\u003c/a> to close a $50.3 million shortfall in the 2026-27 spending plan, but city staffers have projected a $26.8 million deficit in the fiscal year beginning next July. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I think we’d all agree it wouldn’t be right for us to further cut library hours or have to shut down a fire station or some other impact like that to give an unsustainable raise,” Mahan said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The two sides are also apart on the use of artificial intelligence in city departments. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A strike by MEF and IFPTE, which collectively represent more than 3,000 workers, would be the largest municipal work stoppage in San José since 1981, when AFSCME workers struck for nine days to advocate for equal pay for female workers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12093643\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.500418643594753;width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/08/20260729_SJCITYWORKERS_GC-6-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">San José City employees attend Strike School in San José on July 29, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In 2023, Mahan was the lone vote against a contract for the two unions. The wage agreement reached at the time \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11958216/san-jose-city-worker-strike-on-hold-after-agreement\">narrowly avoided\u003c/a> a work stoppage that threatened to derail summer camps, permit processing and even flights at San José Mineta International Airport. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It remains to be seen whether the council members will ask the city manager to increase San José’s offer to the unions when they meet in a closed session on Tuesday morning. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The unions are holding the strike authorization votes at large worksites, including City Hall, the airport and the central service yard. Results are expected to be tallied Aug. 17, with a potential strike date announced afterward. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Last month, the unions held “strike schools” at San José First United Methodist Church, across the street from City Hall. Workers chanted, cheered and received a briefing from union leaders on what a work stoppage would entail. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are doing this because we know, because of the way the city has behaved at the bargaining table, that we have to strike to get a deal,” said Charles Allen, union representative for MEF. “Painful, but we have to do it.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Hundreds of thousands of independent contractors for ride-hailing companies in California could be part of a union next month, putting to bed \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12057798/california-gives-uber-lyft-drivers-collective-bargaining-rights\">a yearslong struggle for a place at the bargaining table\u003c/a> to fight for better pay and benefits. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The California Gig Workers Union, which represents thousands of app-based drivers in the state, met a required 30% threshold of active drivers who are supportive of the effort, according to the state’s Public Employment Relations Board. Under a state law that went into effect this year, that support sets the stage for state regulators to certify the union within 30 days. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Drivers for ride-hailing giants like Uber and Lyft and other companies are classified as independent contractors and don’t qualify for overtime pay and other protections granted under federal law. However, state lawmakers \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034860/california-bill-would-allow-uber-lyft-drivers-bargain-collectively\">passed AB 1340 last year\u003c/a>, giving drivers a path to form a union and bargain for protections. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11997574\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181.jpg 1024w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181-160x107.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Members of the Rideshare Drivers United organization protest against Uber and Lyft during a demonstration in Los Angeles, California, on Feb.14, 2024. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>CGWU said it expects the union certification to go through since, according to PERB, “no other driver organization is currently eligible to submit proof of support during [the waiting] period.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If it does, CGWU will become the exclusive bargaining representative for Uber and Lyft drivers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hector Castellanos, who has been driving for Uber and Lyft for about a dozen years, said that would change the lives of thousands of families. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1440\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A man with a microphone speaks while protestors holding signs rally behind him.\" class=\"wp-image-11928851\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hector Castellanos, an Uber and Lyft driver from Antioch, speaks at a rally to announce the formation of the California Gig Workers Union before Uber’s headquarters in San Francisco on Oct. 12, 2022. (Farida Jhabvala Romero/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s so incredible that we’re fighting for so long and finally we’re certified as a union,” Castellanos said. “Exciting, crying, I mean, it’s been that rollercoaster going up and down.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Castellanos said pay and benefits are the top two things drivers will be looking to bargain about with the companies. Drivers said the share that Lyft and Uber take out of fares — that could otherwise go to them — is too much. Lyft said on its website that it caps its own fees at 30% of a fare, with varying external fees.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The fight for better driver conditions started long before AB 1340’s passage.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Rideshare drivers, with organizing help from unions like Service Employees International Union Local 1021, have clashed with Uber and Lyft over the independent contractor designation. In 2020, voters across the state approved a measure known as Proposition 22 that confirmed drivers’ classification as contractors instead of employees, leaving them without healthcare and other benefits. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Castellanos was one of the plaintiffs who appealed the measure, calling it unconstitutional. The California Supreme Court upheld the measure in 2024. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now, the companies say they look forward to engaging with the drivers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>CJ Macklin, a spokesperson for Lyft, said it was committed to doing so in good faith and focused on keeping the service dependable for users. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Ramona Prieto, head of Uber public policy and communications in the Western U.S., said the certification was the next step in what she called the “historic compromise” of AB 1340 that gave drivers a path to representation “while preserving the independence and flexibility they’ve consistently said they value most.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The California Gig Workers Union said that if certified, it would be the largest union made up of gig drivers in the world. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s \u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/fjhabvala\">\u003cem>Farida Jhabvala Romero \u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>contributed to this report.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Drivers for ride-hailing giants like Uber and Lyft and other companies are classified as independent contractors and don’t qualify for overtime pay and other protections granted under federal law. However, state lawmakers \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034860/california-bill-would-allow-uber-lyft-drivers-bargain-collectively\">passed AB 1340 last year\u003c/a>, giving drivers a path to form a union and bargain for protections. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11997574\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181.jpg 1024w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181-160x107.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Members of the Rideshare Drivers United organization protest against Uber and Lyft during a demonstration in Los Angeles, California, on Feb.14, 2024. \u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Castellanos said pay and benefits are the top two things drivers will be looking to bargain about with the companies. Drivers said the share that Lyft and Uber take out of fares — that could otherwise go to them — is too much. Lyft said on its website that it caps its own fees at 30% of a fare, with varying external fees.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The fight for better driver conditions started long before AB 1340’s passage.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Rideshare drivers, with organizing help from unions like Service Employees International Union Local 1021, have clashed with Uber and Lyft over the independent contractor designation. In 2020, voters across the state approved a measure known as Proposition 22 that confirmed drivers’ classification as contractors instead of employees, leaving them without healthcare and other benefits. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Castellanos was one of the plaintiffs who appealed the measure, calling it unconstitutional. The California Supreme Court upheld the measure in 2024. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Now, the companies say they look forward to engaging with the drivers.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>CJ Macklin, a spokesperson for Lyft, said it was committed to doing so in good faith and focused on keeping the service dependable for users. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Ramona Prieto, head of Uber public policy and communications in the Western U.S., said the certification was the next step in what she called the “historic compromise” of AB 1340 that gave drivers a path to representation “while preserving the independence and flexibility they’ve consistently said they value most.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The California Gig Workers Union said that if certified, it would be the largest union made up of gig drivers in the world. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s \u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/fjhabvala\">\u003cem>Farida Jhabvala Romero \u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>contributed to this report.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "The ride-hail drivers would remain independent contractors but would be able to negotiate with the companies for better pay and benefits. ",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Hundreds of thousands of independent contractors for ride-hailing companies in California could be part of a union next month, putting to bed \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12057798/california-gives-uber-lyft-drivers-collective-bargaining-rights\">a yearslong struggle for a place at the bargaining table\u003c/a> to fight for better pay and benefits. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The California Gig Workers Union, which represents thousands of app-based drivers in the state, met a required 30% threshold of active drivers who are supportive of the effort, according to the state’s Public Employment Relations Board. Under a state law that went into effect this year, that support sets the stage for state regulators to certify the union within 30 days. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Drivers for ride-hailing giants like Uber and Lyft and other companies are classified as independent contractors and don’t qualify for overtime pay and other protections granted under federal law. However, state lawmakers \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034860/california-bill-would-allow-uber-lyft-drivers-bargain-collectively\">passed AB 1340 last year\u003c/a>, giving drivers a path to form a union and bargain for protections. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11997574\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181.jpg 1024w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/07/GettyImages-2003719181-160x107.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Members of the Rideshare Drivers United organization protest against Uber and Lyft during a demonstration in Los Angeles, California, on Feb.14, 2024. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>CGWU said it expects the union certification to go through since, according to PERB, “no other driver organization is currently eligible to submit proof of support during [the waiting] period.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If it does, CGWU will become the exclusive bargaining representative for Uber and Lyft drivers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hector Castellanos, who has been driving for Uber and Lyft for about a dozen years, said that would change the lives of thousands of families. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1440\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A man with a microphone speaks while protestors holding signs rally behind him.\" class=\"wp-image-11928851\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/10/RS59361_IMG_5929-qut-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hector Castellanos, an Uber and Lyft driver from Antioch, speaks at a rally to announce the formation of the California Gig Workers Union before Uber’s headquarters in San Francisco on Oct. 12, 2022. (Farida Jhabvala Romero/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s so incredible that we’re fighting for so long and finally we’re certified as a union,” Castellanos said. “Exciting, crying, I mean, it’s been that rollercoaster going up and down.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Castellanos said pay and benefits are the top two things drivers will be looking to bargain about with the companies. Drivers said the share that Lyft and Uber take out of fares — that could otherwise go to them — is too much. Lyft said on its website that it caps its own fees at 30% of a fare, with varying external fees.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The fight for better driver conditions started long before AB 1340’s passage.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Rideshare drivers, with organizing help from unions like Service Employees International Union Local 1021, have clashed with Uber and Lyft over the independent contractor designation. In 2020, voters across the state approved a measure known as Proposition 22 that confirmed drivers’ classification as contractors instead of employees, leaving them without healthcare and other benefits. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Castellanos was one of the plaintiffs who appealed the measure, calling it unconstitutional. The California Supreme Court upheld the measure in 2024. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now, the companies say they look forward to engaging with the drivers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>CJ Macklin, a spokesperson for Lyft, said it was committed to doing so in good faith and focused on keeping the service dependable for users. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Ramona Prieto, head of Uber public policy and communications in the Western U.S., said the certification was the next step in what she called the “historic compromise” of AB 1340 that gave drivers a path to representation “while preserving the independence and flexibility they’ve consistently said they value most.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The California Gig Workers Union said that if certified, it would be the largest union made up of gig drivers in the world. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s \u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/fjhabvala\">\u003cem>Farida Jhabvala Romero \u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>contributed to this report.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "alameda-county-supervisors-delay-30-minimum-wage-ballot-initiative",
"title": "Alameda County Supervisors Delay $30 Minimum Wage Ballot Initiative",
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"content": "\u003cp>An initiative to establish the nation’s highest minimum wage in parts of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/alameda-county\">Alameda County\u003c/a> will not make it onto the November ballot, after the county’s Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to further study its economic impact.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The measure, which would gradually raise the minimum wage in unincorporated areas and county buildings to $30 an hour, will now miss a deadline to go before voters on Nov. 3, even though proponents collected more than the 49,000 required voter signatures. Voters could still decide the proposal in March 2028 or sooner, if a special election is called. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Under the initiative by the Living Wage for All coalition, large employers with 100 or more employees and annual revenues exceeding $1 billion and janitorial firms would have until July 2030 to make the full jump. Smaller employers would have additional years to adjust.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Supervisor Nate Miley, whose district includes parts of Oakland and the unincorporated communities of Ashland and Castro Valley, called the board’s decision “the prudent thing to do.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I don’t want to do anything that’s going to impact the quality of life in unincorporated areas without a study … so we can get all questions answered,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1020\" height=\"680\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1020x680.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11989385\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nate Miley of the Alameda County Board of Supervisors speaks during a California Reparations Listening Session at the California Ballroom in Oakland on May 28, 2022. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A full-time worker without dependents must make at least $32.31 to support themselves in Alameda County, according to the MIT Living Wage Calculator. The highest minimum wage countywide is the city of Emeryville’s $20.34 per hour.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Low-income workers said they increasingly struggled to afford the basics in one of the country’s most expensive regions. But many local restaurant owners, retailers and other small business representatives urged supervisors to better understand the potential impacts of the proposed measure before sending it to voters. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I would respectfully ask that this board do its fiduciary responsibility to the voters, the workers, and the business owners of Alameda in seeking a full and well-regarded economic study as to the repercussions,” Scott Rodrick, a second-generation business owner, said during the 90-minute public comment. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Supervisors Miley, David Haubert and Lena Tam directed county staff to bring back a report within a month examining the measure’s effects, including on jobs, consumer prices, and the county’s own finances. Supervisors Elisa Márquez and Nikki Fortunato Bas said they shared their colleagues’ concerns, but voted to approve placing the coalition’s petition on this year’s ballot — noting that they did not want to interfere with the will of voters.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The coalition followed our democratic processes, which is why the registrar is bringing this item forward to us,” Fortunato Bas said. “We should honor the will of those voters and place this on the ballot in November.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During the lengthy and at times contentious meeting, Board President Haubert sparred with worker advocates in pink “Alameda County $30 living wage for all” T-shirts. He threatened to clear the room and at one point, called for a brief recess. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Micole Edwards, a single parent of three, was one in a long line of people telling supervisors that workers urgently need higher wages to continue living in the county.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Poverty simply says we don’t have enough,” Edwards said. “I have one child. Her father is dead due to poverty. I have another child. Her dad is incarcerated, facing 10 to life because of poverty.”\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“I really beg you, please push this forward now,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Living Wage for All also submitted signatures for a similar measure in Oakland that has yet to be certified. The nationwide alliance pointed to a study by Movement Economics that suggested more than 182,000 workers in Alameda County — about one in five — would get a raise, while the number of jobs would grow, although the findings were questioned by small business owners at the meeting. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Workers do not need another study to tell them that their wages are too low to afford groceries and rent,” the Alameda County Living Wage for All Steering Committee said in a statement. “Yesterday’s procedural vote will not prevent a living wage for all from reaching the ballot in Alameda County. It simply means voters will pass these critical reforms in the next election.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In recent years, California has tried to boost pay for struggling working people. Lawmakers mandated a wage hike for most \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11985277/impact-of-california-fast-food-worker-wage-increase-still-too-early-to-gauge\">fast food restaurant employees\u003c/a> to at least $20 an hour in 2024, as well as additional raises for the lowest-paid \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12009797/california-health-care-employers-required-raise-minimum-pay\">healthcare workers\u003c/a>. But that same year, voters turned down a ballot initiative that would have pushed the statewide minimum wage to $18 an hour, amid \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12010912/california-minimum-wage-voter-support-falters-as-inflation-worries-linger\">inflation concerns\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The fast food and healthcare industries have since seemingly absorbed the higher payroll costs, but economists debate the extent of the move’s impact on jobs, working hours and consumer prices.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1020x680.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11989385\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nate Miley of the Alameda County Board of Supervisors speaks during a California Reparations Listening Session at the California Ballroom in Oakland on May 28, 2022. \u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1020x680.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11989385\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nate Miley of the Alameda County Board of Supervisors speaks during a California Reparations Listening Session at the California Ballroom in Oakland on May 28, 2022. \u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>A full-time worker without dependents must make at least $32.31 to support themselves in Alameda County, according to the MIT Living Wage Calculator. The highest minimum wage countywide is the city of Emeryville’s $20.34 per hour.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>A full-time worker without dependents must make at least $32.31 to support themselves in Alameda County, according to the MIT Living Wage Calculator. The highest minimum wage countywide is the city of Emeryville’s $20.34 per hour.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Low-income workers said they increasingly struggled to afford the basics in one of the country’s most expensive regions. But many local restaurant owners, retailers and other small business representatives urged supervisors to better understand the potential impacts of the proposed measure before sending it to voters. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Low-income workers said they increasingly struggled to afford the basics in one of the country’s most expensive regions. But many local restaurant owners, retailers and other small business representatives urged supervisors to better understand the potential impacts of the proposed measure before sending it to voters. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I would respectfully ask that this board do its fiduciary responsibility to the voters, the workers, and the business owners of Alameda in seeking a full and well-regarded economic study as to the repercussions,” Scott Rodrick, a second-generation business owner, said during the 90-minute public comment. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I would respectfully ask that this board do its fiduciary responsibility to the voters, the workers, and the business owners of Alameda in seeking a full and well-regarded economic study as to the repercussions,” Scott Rodrick, a second-generation business owner, said during the 90-minute public comment. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Supervisors Miley, David Haubert and Lena Tam directed county staff to bring back a report within a month examining the measure’s effects, including on jobs, consumer prices, and the county’s own finances. Supervisors Elisa Márquez and Nikki Fortunato Bas said they shared their colleagues’ concerns, but voted to approve placing the coalition’s petition on this year’s ballot — noting that they did not want to interfere with the will of voters.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Supervisors Miley, David Haubert and Lena Tam directed county staff to bring back a report within a month examining the measure’s effects, including on jobs, consumer prices, and the county’s own finances. Supervisors Elisa Márquez and Nikki Fortunato Bas said they shared their colleagues’ concerns, but voted to approve placing the coalition’s petition on this year’s ballot — noting that they did not want to interfere with the will of voters.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The coalition followed our democratic processes, which is why the registrar is bringing this item forward to us,” Fortunato Bas said. “We should honor the will of those voters and place this on the ballot in November.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The coalition followed our democratic processes, which is why the registrar is bringing this item forward to us,” Fortunato Bas said. “We should honor the will of those voters and place this on the ballot in November.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>During the lengthy and at times contentious meeting, Board President Haubert sparred with worker advocates in pink “Alameda County $30 living wage for all” T-shirts. He threatened to clear the room and at one point, called for a brief recess. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>During the lengthy and at times contentious meeting, Board President Haubert sparred with worker advocates in pink “Alameda County $30 living wage for all” T-shirts. He threatened to clear the room and at one point, called for a brief recess. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Micole Edwards, a single parent of three, was one in a long line of people telling supervisors that workers urgently need higher wages to continue living in the county.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Micole Edwards, a single parent of three, was one in a long line of people telling supervisors that workers urgently need higher wages to continue living in the county.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Poverty simply says we don’t have enough,” Edwards said. “I have one child. Her father is dead due to poverty. I have another child. Her dad is incarcerated, facing 10 to life because of poverty.”\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“I really beg you, please push this forward now,” she said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Poverty simply says we don’t have enough,” Edwards said. “I have one child. Her father is dead due to poverty. I have another child. Her dad is incarcerated, facing 10 to life because of poverty.”\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“I really beg you, please push this forward now,” she said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Living Wage for All also submitted signatures for a similar measure in Oakland that has yet to be certified. The nationwide alliance pointed to a study by Movement Economics that suggested more than 182,000 workers in Alameda County — about one in five — would get a raise, while the number of jobs would grow, although the findings were questioned by small business owners at the meeting. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Living Wage for All also submitted signatures for a similar measure in Oakland that has yet to be certified. The nationwide alliance pointed to a study by Movement Economics that suggested more than 182,000 workers in Alameda County — about one in five — would get a raise, while the number of jobs would grow, although the findings were questioned by small business owners at the meeting. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Workers do not need another study to tell them that their wages are too low to afford groceries and rent,” the Alameda County Living Wage for All Steering Committee said in a statement. “Yesterday’s procedural vote will not prevent a living wage for all from reaching the ballot in Alameda County. It simply means voters will pass these critical reforms in the next election.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Workers do not need another study to tell them that their wages are too low to afford groceries and rent,” the Alameda County Living Wage for All Steering Committee said in a statement. “Yesterday’s procedural vote will not prevent a living wage for all from reaching the ballot in Alameda County. It simply means voters will pass these critical reforms in the next election.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In recent years, California has tried to boost pay for struggling working people. Lawmakers mandated a wage hike for most \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11985277/impact-of-california-fast-food-worker-wage-increase-still-too-early-to-gauge\">fast food restaurant employees\u003c/a> to at least $20 an hour in 2024, as well as additional raises for the lowest-paid \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12009797/california-health-care-employers-required-raise-minimum-pay\">healthcare workers\u003c/a>. But that same year, voters turned down a ballot initiative that would have pushed the statewide minimum wage to $18 an hour, amid \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12010912/california-minimum-wage-voter-support-falters-as-inflation-worries-linger\">inflation concerns\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In recent years, California has tried to boost pay for struggling working people. Lawmakers mandated a wage hike for most \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11985277/impact-of-california-fast-food-worker-wage-increase-still-too-early-to-gauge\">fast food restaurant employees\u003c/a> to at least $20 an hour in 2024, as well as additional raises for the lowest-paid \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12009797/california-health-care-employers-required-raise-minimum-pay\">healthcare workers\u003c/a>. But that same year, voters turned down a ballot initiative that would have pushed the statewide minimum wage to $18 an hour, amid \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12010912/california-minimum-wage-voter-support-falters-as-inflation-worries-linger\">inflation concerns\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The fast food and healthcare industries have since seemingly absorbed the higher payroll costs, but economists debate the extent of the move’s impact on jobs, working hours and consumer prices.\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Supervisors voted 3-2 to study the economic impacts of the initiative, which would raise the minimum wage to $30 an hour in unincorporated areas and on county property, before sending it to voters.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>An initiative to establish the nation’s highest minimum wage in parts of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/alameda-county\">Alameda County\u003c/a> will not make it onto the November ballot, after the county’s Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to further study its economic impact.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The measure, which would gradually raise the minimum wage in unincorporated areas and county buildings to $30 an hour, will now miss a deadline to go before voters on Nov. 3, even though proponents collected more than the 49,000 required voter signatures. Voters could still decide the proposal in March 2028 or sooner, if a special election is called. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Under the initiative by the Living Wage for All coalition, large employers with 100 or more employees and annual revenues exceeding $1 billion and janitorial firms would have until July 2030 to make the full jump. Smaller employers would have additional years to adjust.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Supervisor Nate Miley, whose district includes parts of Oakland and the unincorporated communities of Ashland and Castro Valley, called the board’s decision “the prudent thing to do.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I don’t want to do anything that’s going to impact the quality of life in unincorporated areas without a study … so we can get all questions answered,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1020\" height=\"680\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1020x680.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11989385\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/06/018_KQED_OaklandReparationsListeningSession_05282022_qut.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nate Miley of the Alameda County Board of Supervisors speaks during a California Reparations Listening Session at the California Ballroom in Oakland on May 28, 2022. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A full-time worker without dependents must make at least $32.31 to support themselves in Alameda County, according to the MIT Living Wage Calculator. The highest minimum wage countywide is the city of Emeryville’s $20.34 per hour.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Low-income workers said they increasingly struggled to afford the basics in one of the country’s most expensive regions. But many local restaurant owners, retailers and other small business representatives urged supervisors to better understand the potential impacts of the proposed measure before sending it to voters. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I would respectfully ask that this board do its fiduciary responsibility to the voters, the workers, and the business owners of Alameda in seeking a full and well-regarded economic study as to the repercussions,” Scott Rodrick, a second-generation business owner, said during the 90-minute public comment. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Supervisors Miley, David Haubert and Lena Tam directed county staff to bring back a report within a month examining the measure’s effects, including on jobs, consumer prices, and the county’s own finances. Supervisors Elisa Márquez and Nikki Fortunato Bas said they shared their colleagues’ concerns, but voted to approve placing the coalition’s petition on this year’s ballot — noting that they did not want to interfere with the will of voters.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The coalition followed our democratic processes, which is why the registrar is bringing this item forward to us,” Fortunato Bas said. “We should honor the will of those voters and place this on the ballot in November.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During the lengthy and at times contentious meeting, Board President Haubert sparred with worker advocates in pink “Alameda County $30 living wage for all” T-shirts. He threatened to clear the room and at one point, called for a brief recess. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Micole Edwards, a single parent of three, was one in a long line of people telling supervisors that workers urgently need higher wages to continue living in the county.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Poverty simply says we don’t have enough,” Edwards said. “I have one child. Her father is dead due to poverty. I have another child. Her dad is incarcerated, facing 10 to life because of poverty.”\u003cbr>\u003cbr>“I really beg you, please push this forward now,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Living Wage for All also submitted signatures for a similar measure in Oakland that has yet to be certified. The nationwide alliance pointed to a study by Movement Economics that suggested more than 182,000 workers in Alameda County — about one in five — would get a raise, while the number of jobs would grow, although the findings were questioned by small business owners at the meeting. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Workers do not need another study to tell them that their wages are too low to afford groceries and rent,” the Alameda County Living Wage for All Steering Committee said in a statement. “Yesterday’s procedural vote will not prevent a living wage for all from reaching the ballot in Alameda County. It simply means voters will pass these critical reforms in the next election.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In recent years, California has tried to boost pay for struggling working people. Lawmakers mandated a wage hike for most \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11985277/impact-of-california-fast-food-worker-wage-increase-still-too-early-to-gauge\">fast food restaurant employees\u003c/a> to at least $20 an hour in 2024, as well as additional raises for the lowest-paid \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12009797/california-health-care-employers-required-raise-minimum-pay\">healthcare workers\u003c/a>. But that same year, voters turned down a ballot initiative that would have pushed the statewide minimum wage to $18 an hour, amid \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12010912/california-minimum-wage-voter-support-falters-as-inflation-worries-linger\">inflation concerns\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The fast food and healthcare industries have since seemingly absorbed the higher payroll costs, but economists debate the extent of the move’s impact on jobs, working hours and consumer prices.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "iconic-ghirardelli-san-francisco-flagship-store-closed-as-workers-strike",
"title": "San Francisco Ghirardelli Workers Strike at Iconic Flagship Store",
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"headTitle": "San Francisco Ghirardelli Workers Strike at Iconic Flagship Store | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cp>Dozens of chocolatiers, cashiers and other employees at the Ghirardelli Chocolate Company’s flagship store in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/san-francisco\">San Francisco\u003c/a> entered the second day of a strike on Friday. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The walkout, expected to end Saturday night, aims to pressure the company to agree to concessions after more than a year of contract negotiations. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Picketers at Ghirardelli Square urged consumers to boycott the brand’s popular business at one of the city’s most iconic tourist destinations. The strike at the Original Ghirardelli Chocolate & Ice Cream Shop is the first in more than 40 years, and comes as unionized employees oppose a company proposal they said would gut their health care benefits, making them more expensive.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260730-GHIRARDELLI-STRIKE-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12093346\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260730-GHIRARDELLI-STRIKE-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260730-GHIRARDELLI-STRIKE-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260730-GHIRARDELLI-STRIKE-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Workers picket outside Ghirardelli’s flagship store in San Francisco on July 30, 2026. (Courtesy of Unite Here)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Fredrick Jones, a greeter at the shop for 17 years, told KQED he fears not being able to afford medication that keeps his body from rejecting a heart transplant he underwent last October.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This benefit that we have right now is very important to us. It helped me out big time with my heart transplant,” Jones, a 47-year-old San Francisco resident, said. “That’s why we’re doing this strike, to let people know that the company is not respecting employees like they should.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A spokesperson for the Lindt & Sprüngli Group, which owns Ghirardelli, said in a statement that the company values and respects its employees. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Ghirardelli, one of the nation’s oldest chocolate companies, was founded in San Francisco during the Gold Rush by Italian chocolatier Domenico “Domingo” Ghirardelli.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We are currently in active contract negotiations with the union and are committed to bargaining in good faith,” the spokesperson wrote in an e-mail. “Our main focus right now is on reaching an agreement that supports our employees and ensures the long-term success of our business.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Lindt & Sprüngli, headquartered in Switzerland, posted nearly 6 billion Swiss francs in sales \u003ca href=\"https://www.lindt-spruengli.com/investors/financial-reporting/annual-report-2025\">last year\u003c/a>, or more than $7.3 billion. Its operating profits totaled 970 million francs, or about $1.2 billion, after expenses and the costs of goods.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The union representing the 45 strikers accused the company of bargaining in bad faith by refusing to share relevant information, such as how much it profits from a 6% “healthcare fee” charged to customers at Ghirardelli Plaza locations. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Management aims to switch employees’ health plan to one that would impose unaffordable co-payments for emergency room visits or critical services, said Sonya Karabel, campaign researcher at Unite Here Local 2.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260219-strikingkaiserworkers00781_TV_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12091961\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260219-strikingkaiserworkers00781_TV_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260219-strikingkaiserworkers00781_TV_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260219-strikingkaiserworkers00781_TV_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Josh Sokolski (left) and Brenda Hinaga (right), both occupational therapists from Kaiser Walnut Creek, march while on strike at the picket line outside Kaiser Permanente Oakland Medical Center on Feb. 19, 2026. Kaiser workers on the picket lines have gone without their paychecks for four weeks, and many are facing financial and other difficulties. (Tâm Vũ/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Customers expect, ‘Oh, okay, this [fee] is gonna cover workers’ health insurance.’ And yet, Ghirardelli is trying to cut their health insurance,” Karabel said. “They need to be transparent about what kind of resources they’re getting from customers that are supposed to be dedicated to paying for health care coverage.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Last year, disputes over health benefits became a flash point driving work stoppages nationwide, as medical coverage costs continued to rise, according to \u003ca href=\"https://www.ilr.cornell.edu/faculty-and-research/labor-action-tracker-2025\">a report\u003c/a> by researchers at Cornell University’s Labor Action Tracker. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In recent months, Bay Area \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12083589/uc-reaches-contract-deal-with-service-hospital-workers-averting-strike\">service workers\u003c/a> at the University of California, warehouse staff at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12092155/arrests-injuries-at-ch-sugar-protest-as-strike-at-crockett-refinery-enters-sixth-week\">C&H Sugar refinery\u003c/a> in Crockett and patient care \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12074265/widespread-kaiser-strike-to-end-after-4-weeks-with-no-deal-yet\">employees at Kaiser Permanente\u003c/a> have said that protecting or improving their health insurance was a main reason for striking.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Picketers at Ghirardelli Square urged consumers to boycott the brand’s popular business at one of the city’s most iconic tourist destinations. The strike at the Original Ghirardelli Chocolate & Ice Cream Shop is the first in more than 40 years, and comes as unionized employees oppose a company proposal they said would gut their health care benefits, making them more expensive.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Fredrick Jones, a greeter at the shop for 17 years, told KQED he fears not being able to afford medication that keeps his body from rejecting a heart transplant he underwent last October.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This benefit that we have right now is very important to us. It helped me out big time with my heart transplant,” Jones, a 47-year-old San Francisco resident, said. “That’s why we’re doing this strike, to let people know that the company is not respecting employees like they should.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>A spokesperson for the Lindt & Sprüngli Group, which owns Ghirardelli, said in a statement that the company values and respects its employees. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Ghirardelli, one of the nation’s oldest chocolate companies, was founded in San Francisco during the Gold Rush by Italian chocolatier Domenico “Domingo” Ghirardelli.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We are currently in active contract negotiations with the union and are committed to bargaining in good faith,” the spokesperson wrote in an e-mail. “Our main focus right now is on reaching an agreement that supports our employees and ensures the long-term success of our business.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Lindt & Sprüngli, headquartered in Switzerland, posted nearly 6 billion Swiss francs in sales \u003ca href=\"https://www.lindt-spruengli.com/investors/financial-reporting/annual-report-2025\">last year\u003c/a>, or more than $7.3 billion. Its operating profits totaled 970 million francs, or about $1.2 billion, after expenses and the costs of goods.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The union representing the 45 strikers accused the company of bargaining in bad faith by refusing to share relevant information, such as how much it profits from a 6% “healthcare fee” charged to customers at Ghirardelli Plaza locations. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Management aims to switch employees’ health plan to one that would impose unaffordable co-payments for emergency room visits or critical services, said Sonya Karabel, campaign researcher at Unite Here Local 2.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Customers expect, ‘Oh, okay, this [fee] is gonna cover workers’ health insurance.’ And yet, Ghirardelli is trying to cut their health insurance,” Karabel said. “They need to be transparent about what kind of resources they’re getting from customers that are supposed to be dedicated to paying for health care coverage.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Dozens of chocolatiers, cashiers and other employees at the Ghirardelli Chocolate Company’s flagship store in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/san-francisco\">San Francisco\u003c/a> entered the second day of a strike on Friday. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The walkout, expected to end Saturday night, aims to pressure the company to agree to concessions after more than a year of contract negotiations. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Picketers at Ghirardelli Square urged consumers to boycott the brand’s popular business at one of the city’s most iconic tourist destinations. The strike at the Original Ghirardelli Chocolate & Ice Cream Shop is the first in more than 40 years, and comes as unionized employees oppose a company proposal they said would gut their health care benefits, making them more expensive.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260730-GHIRARDELLI-STRIKE-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12093346\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260730-GHIRARDELLI-STRIKE-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260730-GHIRARDELLI-STRIKE-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260730-GHIRARDELLI-STRIKE-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Workers picket outside Ghirardelli’s flagship store in San Francisco on July 30, 2026. (Courtesy of Unite Here)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Fredrick Jones, a greeter at the shop for 17 years, told KQED he fears not being able to afford medication that keeps his body from rejecting a heart transplant he underwent last October.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This benefit that we have right now is very important to us. It helped me out big time with my heart transplant,” Jones, a 47-year-old San Francisco resident, said. “That’s why we’re doing this strike, to let people know that the company is not respecting employees like they should.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A spokesperson for the Lindt & Sprüngli Group, which owns Ghirardelli, said in a statement that the company values and respects its employees. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Ghirardelli, one of the nation’s oldest chocolate companies, was founded in San Francisco during the Gold Rush by Italian chocolatier Domenico “Domingo” Ghirardelli.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We are currently in active contract negotiations with the union and are committed to bargaining in good faith,” the spokesperson wrote in an e-mail. “Our main focus right now is on reaching an agreement that supports our employees and ensures the long-term success of our business.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Lindt & Sprüngli, headquartered in Switzerland, posted nearly 6 billion Swiss francs in sales \u003ca href=\"https://www.lindt-spruengli.com/investors/financial-reporting/annual-report-2025\">last year\u003c/a>, or more than $7.3 billion. Its operating profits totaled 970 million francs, or about $1.2 billion, after expenses and the costs of goods.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The union representing the 45 strikers accused the company of bargaining in bad faith by refusing to share relevant information, such as how much it profits from a 6% “healthcare fee” charged to customers at Ghirardelli Plaza locations. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Management aims to switch employees’ health plan to one that would impose unaffordable co-payments for emergency room visits or critical services, said Sonya Karabel, campaign researcher at Unite Here Local 2.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260219-strikingkaiserworkers00781_TV_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12091961\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260219-strikingkaiserworkers00781_TV_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260219-strikingkaiserworkers00781_TV_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/260219-strikingkaiserworkers00781_TV_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Josh Sokolski (left) and Brenda Hinaga (right), both occupational therapists from Kaiser Walnut Creek, march while on strike at the picket line outside Kaiser Permanente Oakland Medical Center on Feb. 19, 2026. Kaiser workers on the picket lines have gone without their paychecks for four weeks, and many are facing financial and other difficulties. (Tâm Vũ/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Customers expect, ‘Oh, okay, this [fee] is gonna cover workers’ health insurance.’ And yet, Ghirardelli is trying to cut their health insurance,” Karabel said. “They need to be transparent about what kind of resources they’re getting from customers that are supposed to be dedicated to paying for health care coverage.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Last year, disputes over health benefits became a flash point driving work stoppages nationwide, as medical coverage costs continued to rise, according to \u003ca href=\"https://www.ilr.cornell.edu/faculty-and-research/labor-action-tracker-2025\">a report\u003c/a> by researchers at Cornell University’s Labor Action Tracker. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In recent months, Bay Area \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12083589/uc-reaches-contract-deal-with-service-hospital-workers-averting-strike\">service workers\u003c/a> at the University of California, warehouse staff at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12092155/arrests-injuries-at-ch-sugar-protest-as-strike-at-crockett-refinery-enters-sixth-week\">C&H Sugar refinery\u003c/a> in Crockett and patient care \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12074265/widespread-kaiser-strike-to-end-after-4-weeks-with-no-deal-yet\">employees at Kaiser Permanente\u003c/a> have said that protecting or improving their health insurance was a main reason for striking.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "These Peers Provided Alternative 911 Responders. San Francisco Is Removing Them",
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"content": "\u003cp>After losing her job because of substance abuse, Chantel Hernandez-Wood was living \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1994288/you-mean-something-to-someone-overcoming-homelessness-and-addiction-this-san-francisco-woman-now-helps-others-heal\">on the streets of San Francisco\u003c/a> when she saw a red van parked nearby one day in 2022. It was the city’s former Street Overdose Response Team, and she flagged them down for help. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Equipped with a peer counselor trained to connect with people in crisis, the crew drove her to a recovery center, where she received medication to assist with alcohol withdrawal and entered a 90-day recovery program. While there, she decided she wanted to do the same kind of work as the people who came to her rescue. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It felt like I meant something to someone. They went above and beyond to help get me off the streets,” Hernandez-Wood told KQED. “I thought, ‘I’d love to do that, I want to give back.’”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>After successfully finishing the recovery program, Hernandez-Wood completed training to become a certified peer support specialist, learning techniques to engage with vulnerable populations and navigate social services. She started working at the nonprofit Glide, helping people who struggle with drug use, went on to work on the city’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1994288/you-mean-something-to-someone-overcoming-homelessness-and-addiction-this-san-francisco-woman-now-helps-others-heal\">Street Overdose Response Team\u003c/a>, and later stepped into her current role as a peer responder on the Street Crisis Response Team. Peer responders currently pair with fire department paramedics to respond to some calls together. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1.jpg\" alt=\"A middle-aged woman stands in front of a red van labeled 'Street Overdose Response Team'\" class=\"wp-image-12014173\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Counselor Chantel Hernandez-Wood, member of the Street Overdose Response Team, gets supplies from her van after speaking with two people sitting on the street in the South of Market neighborhood in San Francisco on Sept. 3, 2024. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It was so surreal, because I was working on the same type of team that helped me when I needed help the most,” she said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But now, San Francisco is quietly shifting its emergency response networks and the roles that peers with lived experience have within them. The fire department is planning to remove peer specialists from its 911 response this summer, setting off alarms for peer advocates who say the decision is a regressive step in the city’s approach to mental and behavioral health emergencies.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s just an incredible disservice to the community,” Hernandez-Wood said. “I feel blindsided.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Fire department officials said the move to pull peers off of the Street Crisis Response Team came after “careful consideration,” and cited challenges with scheduling that made picking up the peer responders before calls difficult. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This decision was not made lightly and reflects the evolving needs and direction of crisis response within the larger 911 system,” a spokesperson for the fire department said in an email. “We believe that by working together within the Street Response framework, SFFD can ensure those we serve continue to receive the appropriate response.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Widespread protests against police brutality in 2020 sparked national discussions around how first responders can better serve people experiencing a mental health crisis, overdose or other behavioral health issues. In the wake of those conversations, the city did not decrease its police budget, but instead created new teams to respond to people in crisis, including the Street Crisis Response Team.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The peer responders are not fire department employees, but are contracted through the nonprofit RAMS, which the Department of Public Health administers. Others are specialists with the San Francisco Homeless Outreach Team. The Department of Public Health declined to comment on the staffing changes, saying the Street Crisis Response Team is under the fire department’s purview. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Peer responders with the Street Crisis Response Team help address issues ranging from a street-level overdose to a domestic dispute in a penthouse, offering support for de-escalation, navigating social services and sometimes bringing lived experiences to a crew of medical and safety professionals. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Over the years, I’ve noticed that a lot of people will look to their peers for guidance or answers because we’re not in uniform,” Hernandez-Wood said. “A lot of unhoused folks that have substance use disorders, they don’t want to talk to anybody in uniform, they just feel more comfortable and less intimidated.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>San Francisco has served as a model for other cities and jurisdictions looking to improve the way that they address complicated 911 emergency calls. A 2024 \u003ca href=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58a33e881b631bc60d4f8b31/t/668d922525a2bc711295fe86/1720554079016/San+Francisco%27s+Public+Safety+System\">report\u003c/a> by the Policing Project at New York University found that the city’s programs “saved law enforcement resources, freeing up the police for other more pressing work.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12092840\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A San Francisco fire engine on March 25, 2026. (Smith Collection/Gado via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the novel approach presented challenges. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>According to the report, “911 dispatchers are stretched thin and struggle with the scripted protocols they must use to assess call eligibility, in particular because those protocols may not always resolve the calls they receive. There still is some confusion among frontline workers about responsibilities of each at the scene of an incident. And many community members and some call takers are disappointed that alternative responses are not solving complex social problems.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The San Francisco Fire Department has meanwhile been developing its Community Paramedicine team, whose members have training in trauma-informed care and resource navigation, to more appropriately respond to people struggling with substance use, mental health crises, homelessness and other behavioral health challenges. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The community paramedics have more training in emergency medicine, and they arrive in uniform and steel-toed boots, unlike the peer specialists, who work in regular street clothes, a small but important detail that can signal a more relatable helper for some 911 callers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The last day on the Street Crisis Response rigs for peer responders, who say their lived experience is central to their expertise, is Aug. 14.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Amelia Harmon, who works with peer responders on the Street Crisis Response Team, has been advocating to keep the positions within the fire department at public health and law enforcement commission meetings, as well as urging city supervisors to step in to reverse the decision. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She said it’s especially urgent after behavioral health clinicians were removed from the Street Crisis Response Team in 2023. Pulling peer responders off of 911 responses is further “chipping away” at the work that she and others have spent the last five years building, she said. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>“Removing peers doesn’t cut costs, it moves costs to the most expensive part of the system,” said Harmon, a peer supervisor with RAMS. “Why would we forfeit high-quality care that has mechanisms for federal and state reimbursement in this budget climate?”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The decision to remove peer specialists from 911 responses is also drawing wider criticism from other workers in the city’s homelessness response system and public safety. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I have personal experience with crisis, and I would rather speak to a non-uniformed peer,” said Joshua Cantero, a case manager at a San Francisco homeless shelter, in a letter to the Board of Supervisors. A peer counselor, Cantero wrote, “makes the clients feel more comfortable and assists with getting them into shelters and making them feel safe.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s not yet clear what will happen next to the peer responders. They have not received layoff notices and could be reassigned to different street teams. Fire department officials said they will continue to refer people to experts with lived experience when it’s appropriate. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Harmon is desperate to keep the peer responders on 911 calls, saying she’s seen firsthand how their approach can be both life-saving and ease the burden for other first responders. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Why would you cut out the heart and soul of the program,” she said, “and risk burning out your own people?”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Equipped with a peer counselor trained to connect with people in crisis, the crew drove her to a recovery center, where she received medication to assist with alcohol withdrawal and entered a 90-day recovery program. While there, she decided she wanted to do the same kind of work as the people who came to her rescue. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>After successfully finishing the recovery program, Hernandez-Wood completed training to become a certified peer support specialist, learning techniques to engage with vulnerable populations and navigate social services. She started working at the nonprofit Glide, helping people who struggle with drug use, went on to work on the city’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1994288/you-mean-something-to-someone-overcoming-homelessness-and-addiction-this-san-francisco-woman-now-helps-others-heal\">Street Overdose Response Team\u003c/a>, and later stepped into her current role as a peer responder on the Street Crisis Response Team. Peer responders currently pair with fire department paramedics to respond to some calls together. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But now, San Francisco is quietly shifting its emergency response networks and the roles that peers with lived experience have within them. The fire department is planning to remove peer specialists from its 911 response this summer, setting off alarms for peer advocates who say the decision is a regressive step in the city’s approach to mental and behavioral health emergencies.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But now, San Francisco is quietly shifting its emergency response networks and the roles that peers with lived experience have within them. The fire department is planning to remove peer specialists from its 911 response this summer, setting off alarms for peer advocates who say the decision is a regressive step in the city’s approach to mental and behavioral health emergencies.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It’s just an incredible disservice to the community,” Hernandez-Wood said. “I feel blindsided.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Fire department officials said the move to pull peers off of the Street Crisis Response Team came after “careful consideration,” and cited challenges with scheduling that made picking up the peer responders before calls difficult. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Fire department officials said the move to pull peers off of the Street Crisis Response Team came after “careful consideration,” and cited challenges with scheduling that made picking up the peer responders before calls difficult. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This decision was not made lightly and reflects the evolving needs and direction of crisis response within the larger 911 system,” a spokesperson for the fire department said in an email. “We believe that by working together within the Street Response framework, SFFD can ensure those we serve continue to receive the appropriate response.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Widespread protests against police brutality in 2020 sparked national discussions around how first responders can better serve people experiencing a mental health crisis, overdose or other behavioral health issues. In the wake of those conversations, the city did not decrease its police budget, but instead created new teams to respond to people in crisis, including the Street Crisis Response Team.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Widespread protests against police brutality in 2020 sparked national discussions around how first responders can better serve people experiencing a mental health crisis, overdose or other behavioral health issues. In the wake of those conversations, the city did not decrease its police budget, but instead created new teams to respond to people in crisis, including the Street Crisis Response Team.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The peer responders are not fire department employees, but are contracted through the nonprofit RAMS, which the Department of Public Health administers. Others are specialists with the San Francisco Homeless Outreach Team. The Department of Public Health declined to comment on the staffing changes, saying the Street Crisis Response Team is under the fire department’s purview. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The peer responders are not fire department employees, but are contracted through the nonprofit RAMS, which the Department of Public Health administers. Others are specialists with the San Francisco Homeless Outreach Team. The Department of Public Health declined to comment on the staffing changes, saying the Street Crisis Response Team is under the fire department’s purview. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Peer responders with the Street Crisis Response Team help address issues ranging from a street-level overdose to a domestic dispute in a penthouse, offering support for de-escalation, navigating social services and sometimes bringing lived experiences to a crew of medical and safety professionals. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Peer responders with the Street Crisis Response Team help address issues ranging from a street-level overdose to a domestic dispute in a penthouse, offering support for de-escalation, navigating social services and sometimes bringing lived experiences to a crew of medical and safety professionals. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Over the years, I’ve noticed that a lot of people will look to their peers for guidance or answers because we’re not in uniform,” Hernandez-Wood said. “A lot of unhoused folks that have substance use disorders, they don’t want to talk to anybody in uniform, they just feel more comfortable and less intimidated.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Over the years, I’ve noticed that a lot of people will look to their peers for guidance or answers because we’re not in uniform,” Hernandez-Wood said. “A lot of unhoused folks that have substance use disorders, they don’t want to talk to anybody in uniform, they just feel more comfortable and less intimidated.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>San Francisco has served as a model for other cities and jurisdictions looking to improve the way that they address complicated 911 emergency calls. A 2024 \u003ca href=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58a33e881b631bc60d4f8b31/t/668d922525a2bc711295fe86/1720554079016/San+Francisco%27s+Public+Safety+System\">report\u003c/a> by the Policing Project at New York University found that the city’s programs “saved law enforcement resources, freeing up the police for other more pressing work.”\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>San Francisco has served as a model for other cities and jurisdictions looking to improve the way that they address complicated 911 emergency calls. A 2024 \u003ca href=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58a33e881b631bc60d4f8b31/t/668d922525a2bc711295fe86/1720554079016/San+Francisco%27s+Public+Safety+System\">report\u003c/a> by the Policing Project at New York University found that the city’s programs “saved law enforcement resources, freeing up the police for other more pressing work.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12092840\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A San Francisco fire engine on March 25, 2026. \u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But the novel approach presented challenges. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>According to the report, “911 dispatchers are stretched thin and struggle with the scripted protocols they must use to assess call eligibility, in particular because those protocols may not always resolve the calls they receive. There still is some confusion among frontline workers about responsibilities of each at the scene of an incident. And many community members and some call takers are disappointed that alternative responses are not solving complex social problems.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>According to the report, “911 dispatchers are stretched thin and struggle with the scripted protocols they must use to assess call eligibility, in particular because those protocols may not always resolve the calls they receive. There still is some confusion among frontline workers about responsibilities of each at the scene of an incident. And many community members and some call takers are disappointed that alternative responses are not solving complex social problems.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The San Francisco Fire Department has meanwhile been developing its Community Paramedicine team, whose members have training in trauma-informed care and resource navigation, to more appropriately respond to people struggling with substance use, mental health crises, homelessness and other behavioral health challenges. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The San Francisco Fire Department has meanwhile been developing its Community Paramedicine team, whose members have training in trauma-informed care and resource navigation, to more appropriately respond to people struggling with substance use, mental health crises, homelessness and other behavioral health challenges. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The community paramedics have more training in emergency medicine, and they arrive in uniform and steel-toed boots, unlike the peer specialists, who work in regular street clothes, a small but important detail that can signal a more relatable helper for some 911 callers.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The community paramedics have more training in emergency medicine, and they arrive in uniform and steel-toed boots, unlike the peer specialists, who work in regular street clothes, a small but important detail that can signal a more relatable helper for some 911 callers.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The last day on the Street Crisis Response rigs for peer responders, who say their lived experience is central to their expertise, is Aug. 14.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Amelia Harmon, who works with peer responders on the Street Crisis Response Team, has been advocating to keep the positions within the fire department at public health and law enforcement commission meetings, as well as urging city supervisors to step in to reverse the decision. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Amelia Harmon, who works with peer responders on the Street Crisis Response Team, has been advocating to keep the positions within the fire department at public health and law enforcement commission meetings, as well as urging city supervisors to step in to reverse the decision. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>She said it’s especially urgent after behavioral health clinicians were removed from the Street Crisis Response Team in 2023. Pulling peer responders off of 911 responses is further “chipping away” at the work that she and others have spent the last five years building, she said. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>“Removing peers doesn’t cut costs, it moves costs to the most expensive part of the system,” said Harmon, a peer supervisor with RAMS. “Why would we forfeit high-quality care that has mechanisms for federal and state reimbursement in this budget climate?”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>She said it’s especially urgent after behavioral health clinicians were removed from the Street Crisis Response Team in 2023. Pulling peer responders off of 911 responses is further “chipping away” at the work that she and others have spent the last five years building, she said. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>“Removing peers doesn’t cut costs, it moves costs to the most expensive part of the system,” said Harmon, a peer supervisor with RAMS. “Why would we forfeit high-quality care that has mechanisms for federal and state reimbursement in this budget climate?”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The decision to remove peer specialists from 911 responses is also drawing wider criticism from other workers in the city’s homelessness response system and public safety. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I have personal experience with crisis, and I would rather speak to a non-uniformed peer,” said Joshua Cantero, a case manager at a San Francisco homeless shelter, in a letter to the Board of Supervisors. A peer counselor, Cantero wrote, “makes the clients feel more comfortable and assists with getting them into shelters and making them feel safe.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I have personal experience with crisis, and I would rather speak to a non-uniformed peer,” said Joshua Cantero, a case manager at a San Francisco homeless shelter, in a letter to the Board of Supervisors. A peer counselor, Cantero wrote, “makes the clients feel more comfortable and assists with getting them into shelters and making them feel safe.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>It’s not yet clear what will happen next to the peer responders. They have not received layoff notices and could be reassigned to different street teams. Fire department officials said they will continue to refer people to experts with lived experience when it’s appropriate. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>It’s not yet clear what will happen next to the peer responders. They have not received layoff notices and could be reassigned to different street teams. Fire department officials said they will continue to refer people to experts with lived experience when it’s appropriate. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Harmon is desperate to keep the peer responders on 911 calls, saying she’s seen firsthand how their approach can be both life-saving and ease the burden for other first responders. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Harmon is desperate to keep the peer responders on 911 calls, saying she’s seen firsthand how their approach can be both life-saving and ease the burden for other first responders. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Why would you cut out the heart and soul of the program,” she said, “and risk burning out your own people?”\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Advocates say the decision is a regressive step in the city’s approach to mental and behavioral health crises.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>After losing her job because of substance abuse, Chantel Hernandez-Wood was living \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1994288/you-mean-something-to-someone-overcoming-homelessness-and-addiction-this-san-francisco-woman-now-helps-others-heal\">on the streets of San Francisco\u003c/a> when she saw a red van parked nearby one day in 2022. It was the city’s former Street Overdose Response Team, and she flagged them down for help. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Equipped with a peer counselor trained to connect with people in crisis, the crew drove her to a recovery center, where she received medication to assist with alcohol withdrawal and entered a 90-day recovery program. While there, she decided she wanted to do the same kind of work as the people who came to her rescue. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It felt like I meant something to someone. They went above and beyond to help get me off the streets,” Hernandez-Wood told KQED. “I thought, ‘I’d love to do that, I want to give back.’”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>After successfully finishing the recovery program, Hernandez-Wood completed training to become a certified peer support specialist, learning techniques to engage with vulnerable populations and navigate social services. She started working at the nonprofit Glide, helping people who struggle with drug use, went on to work on the city’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1994288/you-mean-something-to-someone-overcoming-homelessness-and-addiction-this-san-francisco-woman-now-helps-others-heal\">Street Overdose Response Team\u003c/a>, and later stepped into her current role as a peer responder on the Street Crisis Response Team. Peer responders currently pair with fire department paramedics to respond to some calls together. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1.jpg\" alt=\"A middle-aged woman stands in front of a red van labeled 'Street Overdose Response Team'\" class=\"wp-image-12014173\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/240903-OverdoseResponse-48-BL_qed-1-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Counselor Chantel Hernandez-Wood, member of the Street Overdose Response Team, gets supplies from her van after speaking with two people sitting on the street in the South of Market neighborhood in San Francisco on Sept. 3, 2024. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It was so surreal, because I was working on the same type of team that helped me when I needed help the most,” she said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But now, San Francisco is quietly shifting its emergency response networks and the roles that peers with lived experience have within them. The fire department is planning to remove peer specialists from its 911 response this summer, setting off alarms for peer advocates who say the decision is a regressive step in the city’s approach to mental and behavioral health emergencies.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s just an incredible disservice to the community,” Hernandez-Wood said. “I feel blindsided.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Fire department officials said the move to pull peers off of the Street Crisis Response Team came after “careful consideration,” and cited challenges with scheduling that made picking up the peer responders before calls difficult. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This decision was not made lightly and reflects the evolving needs and direction of crisis response within the larger 911 system,” a spokesperson for the fire department said in an email. “We believe that by working together within the Street Response framework, SFFD can ensure those we serve continue to receive the appropriate response.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Widespread protests against police brutality in 2020 sparked national discussions around how first responders can better serve people experiencing a mental health crisis, overdose or other behavioral health issues. In the wake of those conversations, the city did not decrease its police budget, but instead created new teams to respond to people in crisis, including the Street Crisis Response Team.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The peer responders are not fire department employees, but are contracted through the nonprofit RAMS, which the Department of Public Health administers. Others are specialists with the San Francisco Homeless Outreach Team. The Department of Public Health declined to comment on the staffing changes, saying the Street Crisis Response Team is under the fire department’s purview. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Peer responders with the Street Crisis Response Team help address issues ranging from a street-level overdose to a domestic dispute in a penthouse, offering support for de-escalation, navigating social services and sometimes bringing lived experiences to a crew of medical and safety professionals. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Over the years, I’ve noticed that a lot of people will look to their peers for guidance or answers because we’re not in uniform,” Hernandez-Wood said. “A lot of unhoused folks that have substance use disorders, they don’t want to talk to anybody in uniform, they just feel more comfortable and less intimidated.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>San Francisco has served as a model for other cities and jurisdictions looking to improve the way that they address complicated 911 emergency calls. A 2024 \u003ca href=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58a33e881b631bc60d4f8b31/t/668d922525a2bc711295fe86/1720554079016/San+Francisco%27s+Public+Safety+System\">report\u003c/a> by the Policing Project at New York University found that the city’s programs “saved law enforcement resources, freeing up the police for other more pressing work.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12092840\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/San-Francisco-Fire-Dept-Getty-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A San Francisco fire engine on March 25, 2026. (Smith Collection/Gado via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the novel approach presented challenges. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>According to the report, “911 dispatchers are stretched thin and struggle with the scripted protocols they must use to assess call eligibility, in particular because those protocols may not always resolve the calls they receive. There still is some confusion among frontline workers about responsibilities of each at the scene of an incident. And many community members and some call takers are disappointed that alternative responses are not solving complex social problems.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The San Francisco Fire Department has meanwhile been developing its Community Paramedicine team, whose members have training in trauma-informed care and resource navigation, to more appropriately respond to people struggling with substance use, mental health crises, homelessness and other behavioral health challenges. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The community paramedics have more training in emergency medicine, and they arrive in uniform and steel-toed boots, unlike the peer specialists, who work in regular street clothes, a small but important detail that can signal a more relatable helper for some 911 callers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The last day on the Street Crisis Response rigs for peer responders, who say their lived experience is central to their expertise, is Aug. 14.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Amelia Harmon, who works with peer responders on the Street Crisis Response Team, has been advocating to keep the positions within the fire department at public health and law enforcement commission meetings, as well as urging city supervisors to step in to reverse the decision. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She said it’s especially urgent after behavioral health clinicians were removed from the Street Crisis Response Team in 2023. Pulling peer responders off of 911 responses is further “chipping away” at the work that she and others have spent the last five years building, she said. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>“Removing peers doesn’t cut costs, it moves costs to the most expensive part of the system,” said Harmon, a peer supervisor with RAMS. “Why would we forfeit high-quality care that has mechanisms for federal and state reimbursement in this budget climate?”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The decision to remove peer specialists from 911 responses is also drawing wider criticism from other workers in the city’s homelessness response system and public safety. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I have personal experience with crisis, and I would rather speak to a non-uniformed peer,” said Joshua Cantero, a case manager at a San Francisco homeless shelter, in a letter to the Board of Supervisors. A peer counselor, Cantero wrote, “makes the clients feel more comfortable and assists with getting them into shelters and making them feel safe.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>It’s not yet clear what will happen next to the peer responders. They have not received layoff notices and could be reassigned to different street teams. Fire department officials said they will continue to refer people to experts with lived experience when it’s appropriate. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Harmon is desperate to keep the peer responders on 911 calls, saying she’s seen firsthand how their approach can be both life-saving and ease the burden for other first responders. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Why would you cut out the heart and soul of the program,” she said, “and risk burning out your own people?”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "uc-doctors-seek-to-unionize-10000-colleagues-in-massive-campaign",
"title": "UC Doctors Seek to Unionize 10,000 Colleagues in Massive Campaign",
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"headTitle": "UC Doctors Seek to Unionize 10,000 Colleagues in Massive Campaign | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/university-of-california\">University of California\u003c/a> is confronting a large unionization effort among employees who have historically stayed outside of unions: doctors.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>At Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital on Thursday, physicians announced their plans to form a union with SEIU Doctors United — a partnership between Doctors Council, Service Employees International Union and Committee of Interns and Residents that represents more than 45,000 doctors nationwide.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The move points to a marked shift in the healthcare industry, where in the past, it has been somewhat rare for generally highly paid doctors to join unions. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But interest in collective bargaining within the medical profession has accelerated, particularly post-pandemic, as more physicians report deteriorating working conditions and a loss of clinical autonomy amidst an increasingly consolidated and profit-driven industry.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12092511\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Doctors attend a press conference held by UCSF attending doctors to announce the UC unionization effort with SEIU Doctors United at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital on July 23, 2026, in San Francisco, California. (Thos Robinson/Getty Images for SEIU Doctors United)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Attending physicians at UC, who make clinical decisions and often supervise residents and medical students, said they are stretched thin with unsustainable patient loads, understaffing and less decision-making power — concerns often echoed by nurses and other patient care workers with higher union participation rates.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sometimes I do feel, especially as a primary care physician, overwhelmed,” Dr. Radhika Rajan, a UCSF pediatrician at SF General, told KQED. “The work that we have to do does not stop when we are leaving [the] clinic.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“So many of us are excited to unionize because the goal is to be able to have the resources to provide better care for our patients,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In a statement, UC said it takes concerns about physicians’ workload, staffing and professional support seriously, adding that burnout is a nationwide challenge driven by workforce shortages and other factors. UC Health leaders regularly work with staff physicians to improve the job environment and evaluate hiring and retention needs, the university said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We remain committed to listening to physicians and clinical faculty, addressing concerns and continuously improving the experience of the people who make UC Health’s clinical, educational and research missions possible,” UC’s statement said. “UC Health locations continually assess staffing, recruitment, security practices and workplace needs, recognizing that conditions vary across specialties, departments and care settings.”\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>About $24 billion, \u003ca href=\"https://health.universityofcalifornia.edu/sites/default/files/2025-02/uc-health-fact-sheet-web.pdf\">nearly 40%\u003c/a> of the university’s total revenue last year, came from its six academic health centers, serving 2.5 million Californians. UC is the state’s second largest employer and the nation’s largest public healthcare system.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Labor experts said it’s unlikely that university executives would welcome a new large doctors’ union. If the \u003ca href=\"https://www.ucdoctorsunited.org/\">UC Doctors United\u003c/a> organizing campaign is successful, it could inspire doctors elsewhere to seek a collective voice on the job, according to John Logan, director of labor and employment studies at San Francisco State University. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A second union, University Professional & Technical Employees, is also \u003ca href=\"https://uc-physicians.org/\">organizing\u003c/a> attending physicians at UC. According to Logan, over half of these doctors systemwide would have to show union support in order for the university to be required to recognize them as a unit.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“People who run the university undoubtedly will not want 10,000 doctors at the UC system to unionize and to have to bargain collectively over things that they can unilaterally decide at the moment,” Logan said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The university this month reached a \u003ca href=\"https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-and-cir-seiu-reach-tentative-contract-agreement\">tentative agreement\u003c/a> with the Committee of Interns and Residents, which represents 6,400 resident physicians and fellows who generally earn lower incomes than attending doctors. The deal includes an 18% salary increase and improvements to address emergency room capacity.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In California, attending physicians earn more than $200,000 per year on average, depending on location, experience and specialty, according to Salary.com.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Nationwide, \u003ca href=\"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11221793/\">less than 10%\u003c/a> of practicing physicians are union members.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was updated to include a comment from the University of California, which did not respond before original publication.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>At Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital on Thursday, physicians announced their plans to form a union with SEIU Doctors United — a partnership between Doctors Council, Service Employees International Union and Committee of Interns and Residents that represents more than 45,000 doctors nationwide.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12092511\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Doctors attend a press conference held by UCSF attending doctors to announce the UC unionization effort with SEIU Doctors United at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital on July 23, 2026, in San Francisco, California. \u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Sometimes I do feel, especially as a primary care physician, overwhelmed,” Dr. Radhika Rajan, a UCSF pediatrician at SF General, told KQED. “The work that we have to do does not stop when we are leaving [the] clinic.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“So many of us are excited to unionize because the goal is to be able to have the resources to provide better care for our patients,” she said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In a statement, UC said it takes concerns about physicians’ workload, staffing and professional support seriously, adding that burnout is a nationwide challenge driven by workforce shortages and other factors. UC Health leaders regularly work with staff physicians to improve the job environment and evaluate hiring and retention needs, the university said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We remain committed to listening to physicians and clinical faculty, addressing concerns and continuously improving the experience of the people who make UC Health’s clinical, educational and research missions possible,” UC’s statement said. “UC Health locations continually assess staffing, recruitment, security practices and workplace needs, recognizing that conditions vary across specialties, departments and care settings.”\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We remain committed to listening to physicians and clinical faculty, addressing concerns and continuously improving the experience of the people who make UC Health’s clinical, educational and research missions possible,” UC’s statement said. “UC Health locations continually assess staffing, recruitment, security practices and workplace needs, recognizing that conditions vary across specialties, departments and care settings.”\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>About $24 billion, \u003ca href=\"https://health.universityofcalifornia.edu/sites/default/files/2025-02/uc-health-fact-sheet-web.pdf\">nearly 40%\u003c/a> of the university’s total revenue last year, came from its six academic health centers, serving 2.5 million Californians. UC is the state’s second largest employer and the nation’s largest public healthcare system.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>About $24 billion, \u003ca href=\"https://health.universityofcalifornia.edu/sites/default/files/2025-02/uc-health-fact-sheet-web.pdf\">nearly 40%\u003c/a> of the university’s total revenue last year, came from its six academic health centers, serving 2.5 million Californians. UC is the state’s second largest employer and the nation’s largest public healthcare system.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Labor experts said it’s unlikely that university executives would welcome a new large doctors’ union. If the \u003ca href=\"https://www.ucdoctorsunited.org/\">UC Doctors United\u003c/a> organizing campaign is successful, it could inspire doctors elsewhere to seek a collective voice on the job, according to John Logan, director of labor and employment studies at San Francisco State University. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>A second union, University Professional & Technical Employees, is also \u003ca href=\"https://uc-physicians.org/\">organizing\u003c/a> attending physicians at UC. According to Logan, over half of these doctors systemwide would have to show union support in order for the university to be required to recognize them as a unit.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>A second union, University Professional & Technical Employees, is also \u003ca href=\"https://uc-physicians.org/\">organizing\u003c/a> attending physicians at UC. According to Logan, over half of these doctors systemwide would have to show union support in order for the university to be required to recognize them as a unit.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“People who run the university undoubtedly will not want 10,000 doctors at the UC system to unionize and to have to bargain collectively over things that they can unilaterally decide at the moment,” Logan said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“People who run the university undoubtedly will not want 10,000 doctors at the UC system to unionize and to have to bargain collectively over things that they can unilaterally decide at the moment,” Logan said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The university this month reached a \u003ca href=\"https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-and-cir-seiu-reach-tentative-contract-agreement\">tentative agreement\u003c/a> with the Committee of Interns and Residents, which represents 6,400 resident physicians and fellows who generally earn lower incomes than attending doctors. The deal includes an 18% salary increase and improvements to address emergency room capacity.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The university this month reached a \u003ca href=\"https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-and-cir-seiu-reach-tentative-contract-agreement\">tentative agreement\u003c/a> with the Committee of Interns and Residents, which represents 6,400 resident physicians and fellows who generally earn lower incomes than attending doctors. The deal includes an 18% salary increase and improvements to address emergency room capacity.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In California, attending physicians earn more than $200,000 per year on average, depending on location, experience and specialty, according to Salary.com.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Nationwide, \u003ca href=\"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11221793/\">less than 10%\u003c/a> of practicing physicians are union members.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Nationwide, \u003ca href=\"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11221793/\">less than 10%\u003c/a> of practicing physicians are union members.\u003c/p>\n"
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/university-of-california\">University of California\u003c/a> is confronting a large unionization effort among employees who have historically stayed outside of unions: doctors.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>At Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital on Thursday, physicians announced their plans to form a union with SEIU Doctors United — a partnership between Doctors Council, Service Employees International Union and Committee of Interns and Residents that represents more than 45,000 doctors nationwide.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The move points to a marked shift in the healthcare industry, where in the past, it has been somewhat rare for generally highly paid doctors to join unions. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But interest in collective bargaining within the medical profession has accelerated, particularly post-pandemic, as more physicians report deteriorating working conditions and a loss of clinical autonomy amidst an increasingly consolidated and profit-driven industry.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12092511\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/UCDoctors3-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Doctors attend a press conference held by UCSF attending doctors to announce the UC unionization effort with SEIU Doctors United at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital on July 23, 2026, in San Francisco, California. (Thos Robinson/Getty Images for SEIU Doctors United)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Attending physicians at UC, who make clinical decisions and often supervise residents and medical students, said they are stretched thin with unsustainable patient loads, understaffing and less decision-making power — concerns often echoed by nurses and other patient care workers with higher union participation rates.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sometimes I do feel, especially as a primary care physician, overwhelmed,” Dr. Radhika Rajan, a UCSF pediatrician at SF General, told KQED. “The work that we have to do does not stop when we are leaving [the] clinic.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“So many of us are excited to unionize because the goal is to be able to have the resources to provide better care for our patients,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In a statement, UC said it takes concerns about physicians’ workload, staffing and professional support seriously, adding that burnout is a nationwide challenge driven by workforce shortages and other factors. UC Health leaders regularly work with staff physicians to improve the job environment and evaluate hiring and retention needs, the university said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We remain committed to listening to physicians and clinical faculty, addressing concerns and continuously improving the experience of the people who make UC Health’s clinical, educational and research missions possible,” UC’s statement said. “UC Health locations continually assess staffing, recruitment, security practices and workplace needs, recognizing that conditions vary across specialties, departments and care settings.”\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>About $24 billion, \u003ca href=\"https://health.universityofcalifornia.edu/sites/default/files/2025-02/uc-health-fact-sheet-web.pdf\">nearly 40%\u003c/a> of the university’s total revenue last year, came from its six academic health centers, serving 2.5 million Californians. UC is the state’s second largest employer and the nation’s largest public healthcare system.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Labor experts said it’s unlikely that university executives would welcome a new large doctors’ union. If the \u003ca href=\"https://www.ucdoctorsunited.org/\">UC Doctors United\u003c/a> organizing campaign is successful, it could inspire doctors elsewhere to seek a collective voice on the job, according to John Logan, director of labor and employment studies at San Francisco State University. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A second union, University Professional & Technical Employees, is also \u003ca href=\"https://uc-physicians.org/\">organizing\u003c/a> attending physicians at UC. According to Logan, over half of these doctors systemwide would have to show union support in order for the university to be required to recognize them as a unit.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“People who run the university undoubtedly will not want 10,000 doctors at the UC system to unionize and to have to bargain collectively over things that they can unilaterally decide at the moment,” Logan said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The university this month reached a \u003ca href=\"https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-and-cir-seiu-reach-tentative-contract-agreement\">tentative agreement\u003c/a> with the Committee of Interns and Residents, which represents 6,400 resident physicians and fellows who generally earn lower incomes than attending doctors. The deal includes an 18% salary increase and improvements to address emergency room capacity.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In California, attending physicians earn more than $200,000 per year on average, depending on location, experience and specialty, according to Salary.com.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Nationwide, \u003ca href=\"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11221793/\">less than 10%\u003c/a> of practicing physicians are union members.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was updated to include a comment from the University of California, which did not respond before original publication.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"info": "What kind of no sabo word is Hyphenación? For us, it’s about living within a hyphenation. Like being a third-gen Mexican-American from the Texas border now living that Bay Area Chicano life. Like Xorje! Each week we bring together a couple of hyphenated Latinos to talk all about personal life choices: family, careers, relationships, belonging … everything is on the table. ",
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"info": "The Political Mind of Jerry Brown brings listeners the wisdom of the former Governor, Mayor, and presidential candidate. Scott Shafer interviewed Brown for more than 40 hours, covering the former governor's life and half-century in the political game – and Brown has some lessons he'd like to share. ",
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"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
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"mindshift": {
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"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
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"order": 12
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"info": "\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. Hosts Steve Inskeep, David Greene and Rachel Martin bring you the latest breaking news and features to prepare you for the day.",
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"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
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"info": "Our weekly podcast explores how the media 'sausage' is made, casts an incisive eye on fluctuations in the marketplace of ideas, and examines threats to the freedom of information and expression in America and abroad. For one hour a week, the show tries to lift the veil from the process of \"making media,\" especially news media, because it's through that lens that we see the world and the world sees us",
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"perspectives": {
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"planet-money": {
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"info": "The economy explained. Imagine you could call up a friend and say, Meet me at the bar and tell me what's going on with the economy. Now imagine that's actually a fun evening.",
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"politicalbreakdown": {
"id": "politicalbreakdown",
"title": "Political Breakdown",
"tagline": "Politics from a personal perspective",
"info": "Political Breakdown is a new series that explores the political intersection of California and the nation. Each week hosts Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos are joined with a new special guest to unpack politics -- with personality — and offer an insider’s glimpse at how politics happens.",
"airtime": "THU 6:30pm-7pm",
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"possible": {
"id": "possible",
"title": "Possible",
"info": "Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.",
"airtime": "SUN 2pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.possible.fm/",
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"source": "Possible"
},
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},
"pri-the-world": {
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"title": "PRI's The World: Latest Edition",
"info": "Each weekday, host Marco Werman and his team of producers bring you the world's most interesting stories in an hour of radio that reminds us just how small our planet really is.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 2pm-3pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-World-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
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},
"radiolab": {
"id": "radiolab",
"title": "Radiolab",
"info": "A two-time Peabody Award-winner, Radiolab is an investigation told through sounds and stories, and centered around one big idea. In the Radiolab world, information sounds like music and science and culture collide. Hosted by Jad Abumrad and Robert Krulwich, the show is designed for listeners who demand skepticism, but appreciate wonder. WNYC Studios is the producer of other leading podcasts including Freakonomics Radio, Death, Sex & Money, On the Media and many more.",
"airtime": "SUN 12am-1am, SAT 2pm-3pm",
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},
"reveal": {
"id": "reveal",
"title": "Reveal",
"info": "Created by The Center for Investigative Reporting and PRX, Reveal is public radios first one-hour weekly radio show and podcast dedicated to investigative reporting. Credible, fact based and without a partisan agenda, Reveal combines the power and artistry of driveway moment storytelling with data-rich reporting on critically important issues. The result is stories that inform and inspire, arming our listeners with information to right injustices, hold the powerful accountable and improve lives.Reveal is hosted by Al Letson and showcases the award-winning work of CIR and newsrooms large and small across the nation. In a radio and podcast market crowded with choices, Reveal focuses on important and often surprising stories that illuminate the world for our listeners.",
"airtime": "SAT 4pm-5pm",
"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/reveal300px.png",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.revealnews.org/episodes/",
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"source": "npr"
},
"link": "/radio/program/reveal",
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"rss": "http://feeds.revealradio.org/revealpodcast"
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},
"rightnowish": {
"id": "rightnowish",
"title": "Rightnowish",
"tagline": "Art is where you find it",
"info": "Rightnowish digs into life in the Bay Area right now… ish. Journalist Pendarvis Harshaw takes us to galleries painted on the sides of liquor stores in West Oakland. We'll dance in warehouses in the Bayview, make smoothies with kids in South Berkeley, and listen to classical music in a 1984 Cutlass Supreme in Richmond. Every week, Pen talks to movers and shakers about how the Bay Area shapes what they create, and how they shape the place we call home.",
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 16
},
"link": "/podcasts/rightnowish",
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