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"content": "\u003cp>If you’re bitten or scratched by an animal with rabies, your doctor can \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/vis/vis-statements/rabies.pdf\">give you a shot\u003c/a> to prevent the virus from taking hold in you and causing an infection. The same concept is now being put to the test for the coronavirus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most people who get sick with COVID-19 produce antibodies in their blood that seem to protect them from reinfection. A \u003ca href=\"https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04323800?term=NCT04323800&draw=2&rank=1\">study is now underway\u003c/a> to see whether an infusion of those antibodies can protect someone who has been exposed to the virus and is at high risk of infection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the first volunteers for this study is a physician who treats transplant patients at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. \u003ca href=\"https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/profiles/results/directory/profile/0013314/jonathan-orens\">Jonathan Orens \u003c/a>had a close brush with the coronavirus involving not his work, but his family.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>His daughter from Los Angeles wanted to come home to be near her sister, who was about to give birth to her first baby. Orens says the traveling daughter was careful about protecting her health in Los Angeles and did everything she could think of to stay safe on her flight to Baltimore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“She wore a mask, she wore gloves, she had sanitizer, she had wipes,” he said. “The load on the plane was relatively small.” They chose the Fourth of July as a travel day, knowing that even fewer people were likely to be traveling that day. “We actually bought the two seats in the row to keep her away from everybody else.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She wore masks through the airports and in the car ride back to her parents’ house. Once there, she kept her distance from them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Just to be sure, about a week after she arrived, she and her parents went for coronavirus testing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though she had no symptoms, “she was positive,” Orens said. “And fortunately my wife and I were negative.” But they were still at high risk of contracting the disease, given the close contact with their daughter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As luck would have it, one of Orens’ colleagues at Johns Hopkins was just starting a study to see if purified blood serum from people who have recovered from COVID-19 — called convalescent plasma — could prevent the disease in someone else. Orens and his wife, who are in their early 60s, are entering an age group at higher risk of serious disease if infected with the coronavirus. They signed up for the experimental treatment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Half the people in this clinical trial get an intravenous infusion of convalescent plasma, while the other half get an infusion of blood serum that had been donated before the pandemic emerged (so it lacked protective antibodies). Neither the participants nor the doctors treating them know who’s getting what.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The infusion took about an hour, Orens says. “I didn’t feel anything except for the pinprick from the IV, and we went on our merry way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He now returns to the clinic for regular blood tests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ll follow him along to see if he develops symptoms and if he turns positive,” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/profiles/results/directory/profile/4090026/shmuel-shoham\">Dr. Shmuel Shoham\u003c/a>, who is directing the study. Shoham says he plans to enroll up to 500 patients — though, in the best-case scenario, if the treatment is highly effective he won’t need to study that many people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In addition to recruiting patients in Baltimore, “right now we have sites in Houston, sites in Alabama,” Shoham said. “We’re opening up additional sites in Dallas and Arizona. We have sites all over Southern California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He’s also involved in a second study that looks at whether plasma will prevent serious illness in people who are infected but not sick. He says if both of these strategies work, they could help a lot of people, even in the absence of a vaccine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That would give people a lot of confidence, I think, to go back to school, go back to work,” he says, “because if somebody gets sick it’s not a tragedy — because we can protect them and protect those around them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These studies are among \u003ca href=\"https://ccpp19.org/healthcare_providers/component_3/index.html\">a growing number of experiments\u003c/a> involving convalescent plasma, both as preventive measures and as treatments for COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/people/our-faculty/jj2158\">Dr. Jessica Justman\u003c/a> at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health in New York tried to launch a similar study this spring. Good news for New York — but a complication for her study — was that the disease had largely abated in the city, and she didn’t have luck recruiting people to participate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Compared to March and April, people have become less worried, less scared of COVID and perhaps a little bit less inclined to go for a preventive treatment,” Justman said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That situation could turn around if the disease roars back in her area. And Justman says the idea is well worth pursuing. A similar strategy works against other diseases — not just rabies, but hepatitis B, botulism and a potentially serious viral infection in babies called \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/67/wr/mm6702a4.htm\">respiratory syncytial virus\u003c/a>. In fact, this general strategy dates back more than a century. Shoham was involved in a study that attempted to use convalescent serum to treat the flu, and it was not successful — so it isn’t a cure-all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Piggybacking on this strategy, drug companies are gearing up to manufacture antibodies, instead of collecting blood from recovered patients. But those products — monoclonal antibodies — wouldn’t be cheap.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What I like about the convalescent plasma idea is that if it worked, I see it as something that could really be scalable in resource-limited settings,” Justman says, referring to developing countries where expensive pharmaceuticals are frequently out of reach. “And I think that’s where convalescent plasma has this really great potential.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for the Orens family, nobody fell ill — whether that was due to in part to treatment or luck, nobody knows. Their quarantine period ended just in time for a quick trip to New York after the baby’s birth to see the new mom.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The plan is to drive up after she is out of the hospital. Hopefully, everything will go well, and we will all be outside,” Orens said. “We will see the baby from a distance. I’ve already been informed by my daughter that I am not allowed to get anywhere near the baby. And then we will turn around and come back to Baltimore.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s hardly the way he was hoping to greet his first grandchild, he says, “however it’s the price we have to pay to bring this pandemic under control.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers in Baltimore hope to know by mid-September whether the convalescent plasma will in fact inoculate people from COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>You can contact NPR science correspondent Richard Harris at \u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"mailto:rharris@npr.org\">\u003cem>rharris@npr.org\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">Copyright 2020 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=Harvested+Antibodies+Now+Being+Tested+As+A+Prevention+Tool+Against+COVID-19&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/div>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>If you’re bitten or scratched by an animal with rabies, your doctor can \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/vis/vis-statements/rabies.pdf\">give you a shot\u003c/a> to prevent the virus from taking hold in you and causing an infection. The same concept is now being put to the test for the coronavirus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most people who get sick with COVID-19 produce antibodies in their blood that seem to protect them from reinfection. A \u003ca href=\"https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04323800?term=NCT04323800&draw=2&rank=1\">study is now underway\u003c/a> to see whether an infusion of those antibodies can protect someone who has been exposed to the virus and is at high risk of infection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the first volunteers for this study is a physician who treats transplant patients at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. \u003ca href=\"https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/profiles/results/directory/profile/0013314/jonathan-orens\">Jonathan Orens \u003c/a>had a close brush with the coronavirus involving not his work, but his family.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>His daughter from Los Angeles wanted to come home to be near her sister, who was about to give birth to her first baby. Orens says the traveling daughter was careful about protecting her health in Los Angeles and did everything she could think of to stay safe on her flight to Baltimore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“She wore a mask, she wore gloves, she had sanitizer, she had wipes,” he said. “The load on the plane was relatively small.” They chose the Fourth of July as a travel day, knowing that even fewer people were likely to be traveling that day. “We actually bought the two seats in the row to keep her away from everybody else.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She wore masks through the airports and in the car ride back to her parents’ house. Once there, she kept her distance from them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Just to be sure, about a week after she arrived, she and her parents went for coronavirus testing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though she had no symptoms, “she was positive,” Orens said. “And fortunately my wife and I were negative.” But they were still at high risk of contracting the disease, given the close contact with their daughter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As luck would have it, one of Orens’ colleagues at Johns Hopkins was just starting a study to see if purified blood serum from people who have recovered from COVID-19 — called convalescent plasma — could prevent the disease in someone else. Orens and his wife, who are in their early 60s, are entering an age group at higher risk of serious disease if infected with the coronavirus. They signed up for the experimental treatment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Half the people in this clinical trial get an intravenous infusion of convalescent plasma, while the other half get an infusion of blood serum that had been donated before the pandemic emerged (so it lacked protective antibodies). Neither the participants nor the doctors treating them know who’s getting what.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The infusion took about an hour, Orens says. “I didn’t feel anything except for the pinprick from the IV, and we went on our merry way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He now returns to the clinic for regular blood tests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ll follow him along to see if he develops symptoms and if he turns positive,” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/profiles/results/directory/profile/4090026/shmuel-shoham\">Dr. Shmuel Shoham\u003c/a>, who is directing the study. Shoham says he plans to enroll up to 500 patients — though, in the best-case scenario, if the treatment is highly effective he won’t need to study that many people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In addition to recruiting patients in Baltimore, “right now we have sites in Houston, sites in Alabama,” Shoham said. “We’re opening up additional sites in Dallas and Arizona. We have sites all over Southern California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He’s also involved in a second study that looks at whether plasma will prevent serious illness in people who are infected but not sick. He says if both of these strategies work, they could help a lot of people, even in the absence of a vaccine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That would give people a lot of confidence, I think, to go back to school, go back to work,” he says, “because if somebody gets sick it’s not a tragedy — because we can protect them and protect those around them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These studies are among \u003ca href=\"https://ccpp19.org/healthcare_providers/component_3/index.html\">a growing number of experiments\u003c/a> involving convalescent plasma, both as preventive measures and as treatments for COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/people/our-faculty/jj2158\">Dr. Jessica Justman\u003c/a> at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health in New York tried to launch a similar study this spring. Good news for New York — but a complication for her study — was that the disease had largely abated in the city, and she didn’t have luck recruiting people to participate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Compared to March and April, people have become less worried, less scared of COVID and perhaps a little bit less inclined to go for a preventive treatment,” Justman said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That situation could turn around if the disease roars back in her area. And Justman says the idea is well worth pursuing. A similar strategy works against other diseases — not just rabies, but hepatitis B, botulism and a potentially serious viral infection in babies called \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/67/wr/mm6702a4.htm\">respiratory syncytial virus\u003c/a>. In fact, this general strategy dates back more than a century. 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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated July 30\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Child care looks very different at Baby Steps Nature School in San Francisco since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. And it’s not just because staff are taking temperatures, greeting families at the curb, and everyone over three is wearing a face mask.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The games the children and staff play are different too, said owner Patricia Sullivan.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One of their big games right now is ‘The Floor Is Lava,'” Sullivan said. “We do obstacle courses, things that they still get to have fun together, but they don’t have to necessarily touch each other all the time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said the songs that staff sing with kids are more calming, as are the books that the group reads. Sullivan said that’s because her young pupils know something is off these days, even if they can’t articulate it. Instead of focusing on activity after activity, she said, the whole group is slowing down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The most important thing to do this is to really spend more time talking to each other, listening to what the kids are saying,” said Sullivan.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Outside the daily routine at Baby Steps, the entire child care industry has absorbed a seismic jolt. Parents are grappling with the decision of whether to send their kids back to day care, and persistent low enrollment endangers the long-term health of the field.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote align='right' citation='Gina Fromer']‘If you’re a family day care home and you were supporting 24 kids pre-COVID and now you can have six, what does that do for your business?’[/pullquote]Sullivan represents hundreds of other home-based providers through the \u003ca href=\"https://www.fccasf.com/en-us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Family Child Care Association of San Francisco.\u003c/a> She said the group is made up largely of women of color, and they’re facing a challenging loss of income.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the parents chose not to return, we were no longer getting paid,” she said, reflecting on the time since June 1, when day care centers serving the general public were allowed to reopen. Those serving the children of essential workers have been allowed to stay open throughout the pandemic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sullivan said there were already shortages in available child care spots for infants and toddlers in San Francisco, and if providers close permanently, people with very young children “are going to have a hard time finding care.” She also said providers who offer “off-hours care,” anything outside of the hours of 7 a.m. to 6 p.m., are less likely to stay open, since many are primarily essential workers in other sectors, like grocery stores, and caring for children would be too risky in terms of coronavirus transmission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gina Fromer, CEO of the nonprofit \u003ca href=\"https://www.childrenscouncil.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Children’s Council of San Francisco\u003c/a>, an advocacy group for child care, said providers “are hurting right now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While San Francisco and the state have extended some financial relief, Fromer said strict COVID guidelines mean “the majority of the sites in San Francisco are operating at half capacity,” as they must adhere to social distancing, smaller group sizes, and fewer children returning out of family choice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you’re a family day care home and you were supporting 24 kids pre-COVID and now you can have six, what does that do for your business?” she asked.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, just over 40% of San Francisco’s roughly 1,100 child care providers are currently closed, according to the \u003ca href=\"https://sfoece.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">San Francisco Office of Early Care & Education\u003c/a>. This includes larger centers, often run by companies out of a specific site, and family day cares, which are smaller and typically based in a provider’s home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fromer said some of these providers won’t open back up again, which is not just a problem for children, families, and the child care industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is no road to recovery in San Francisco without child care,” she said, noting that businesses will suffer if their employees can’t find proper care for their kids. She estimates that 40% of child care providers shut down after the 2007-8 economic recession.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need local, state and federal investment in child care infrastructure in order for the economy to bounce back,” said Fromer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some families are choosing not to send their children back to day care due to the expense and fear of their children getting or passing the coronavirus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dr. Naomi Bardach, associate professor of pediatrics and health policy at UCSF, said there are risks of children getting COVID-19 and transmitting the virus to adults, but those dangers are low.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most younger kids get very mild illness if they get ill at all, and they are much less likely to get it compared to adults,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Throughout all of California, the number of child care staff, children and their parents \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdss.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">who’ve tested positive\u003c/a> for the virus is roughly 1,518 as of July 29. Of that number, 313 were children, 562 were staff, 489 were parents, and 154 were in none of those categories, such as people who live in the home of a family day care worker but are not on staff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Compared to the total number of preschool children in California, which she estimated “in the hundreds of thousands at least,” the number of children at day care who’ve tested positive is relatively low, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bardach said of the positive coronavirus cases associated with child care, “We’re not totally sure if it came from the community or the preschools. And then the other thing is we have to just put it in the context of [how] we take some risks normally in our lives when we drive in a car or cross the street.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She added that when parents make their decisions, it’s important to consider how prevalent the virus is in their community, and what the safety practices are at their specific child care setting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Back at Baby Steps Nature School, Sullivan understands that parents are fearful. Even if they do send their kids to day care, she sees that fear pop up in other ways — through the kids. She said her young charges are afraid to separate from their parents because they worry their mom or dad may get the virus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sullivan is calming these fears with another change to her day care: pasting pictures of parents in the children’s cubbies.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated July 30\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Child care looks very different at Baby Steps Nature School in San Francisco since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. And it’s not just because staff are taking temperatures, greeting families at the curb, and everyone over three is wearing a face mask.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The games the children and staff play are different too, said owner Patricia Sullivan.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One of their big games right now is ‘The Floor Is Lava,'” Sullivan said. “We do obstacle courses, things that they still get to have fun together, but they don’t have to necessarily touch each other all the time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said the songs that staff sing with kids are more calming, as are the books that the group reads. Sullivan said that’s because her young pupils know something is off these days, even if they can’t articulate it. Instead of focusing on activity after activity, she said, the whole group is slowing down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The most important thing to do this is to really spend more time talking to each other, listening to what the kids are saying,” said Sullivan.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Outside the daily routine at Baby Steps, the entire child care industry has absorbed a seismic jolt. Parents are grappling with the decision of whether to send their kids back to day care, and persistent low enrollment endangers the long-term health of the field.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Sullivan represents hundreds of other home-based providers through the \u003ca href=\"https://www.fccasf.com/en-us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Family Child Care Association of San Francisco.\u003c/a> She said the group is made up largely of women of color, and they’re facing a challenging loss of income.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the parents chose not to return, we were no longer getting paid,” she said, reflecting on the time since June 1, when day care centers serving the general public were allowed to reopen. Those serving the children of essential workers have been allowed to stay open throughout the pandemic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sullivan said there were already shortages in available child care spots for infants and toddlers in San Francisco, and if providers close permanently, people with very young children “are going to have a hard time finding care.” She also said providers who offer “off-hours care,” anything outside of the hours of 7 a.m. to 6 p.m., are less likely to stay open, since many are primarily essential workers in other sectors, like grocery stores, and caring for children would be too risky in terms of coronavirus transmission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gina Fromer, CEO of the nonprofit \u003ca href=\"https://www.childrenscouncil.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Children’s Council of San Francisco\u003c/a>, an advocacy group for child care, said providers “are hurting right now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While San Francisco and the state have extended some financial relief, Fromer said strict COVID guidelines mean “the majority of the sites in San Francisco are operating at half capacity,” as they must adhere to social distancing, smaller group sizes, and fewer children returning out of family choice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you’re a family day care home and you were supporting 24 kids pre-COVID and now you can have six, what does that do for your business?” she asked.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, just over 40% of San Francisco’s roughly 1,100 child care providers are currently closed, according to the \u003ca href=\"https://sfoece.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">San Francisco Office of Early Care & Education\u003c/a>. This includes larger centers, often run by companies out of a specific site, and family day cares, which are smaller and typically based in a provider’s home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fromer said some of these providers won’t open back up again, which is not just a problem for children, families, and the child care industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is no road to recovery in San Francisco without child care,” she said, noting that businesses will suffer if their employees can’t find proper care for their kids. She estimates that 40% of child care providers shut down after the 2007-8 economic recession.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need local, state and federal investment in child care infrastructure in order for the economy to bounce back,” said Fromer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some families are choosing not to send their children back to day care due to the expense and fear of their children getting or passing the coronavirus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dr. Naomi Bardach, associate professor of pediatrics and health policy at UCSF, said there are risks of children getting COVID-19 and transmitting the virus to adults, but those dangers are low.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most younger kids get very mild illness if they get ill at all, and they are much less likely to get it compared to adults,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Throughout all of California, the number of child care staff, children and their parents \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdss.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">who’ve tested positive\u003c/a> for the virus is roughly 1,518 as of July 29. Of that number, 313 were children, 562 were staff, 489 were parents, and 154 were in none of those categories, such as people who live in the home of a family day care worker but are not on staff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Compared to the total number of preschool children in California, which she estimated “in the hundreds of thousands at least,” the number of children at day care who’ve tested positive is relatively low, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bardach said of the positive coronavirus cases associated with child care, “We’re not totally sure if it came from the community or the preschools. And then the other thing is we have to just put it in the context of [how] we take some risks normally in our lives when we drive in a car or cross the street.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She added that when parents make their decisions, it’s important to consider how prevalent the virus is in their community, and what the safety practices are at their specific child care setting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Back at Baby Steps Nature School, Sullivan understands that parents are fearful. Even if they do send their kids to day care, she sees that fear pop up in other ways — through the kids. She said her young charges are afraid to separate from their parents because they worry their mom or dad may get the virus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "Anti-Vaccine Misinformation on Facebook Has Gained a Lot of Traction During Pandemic",
"headTitle": "Anti-Vaccine Misinformation on Facebook Has Gained a Lot of Traction During Pandemic | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>As scientists begin to clear a path to a potential coronavirus vaccine, researchers and advocates are increasingly sounding the alarm over what they see as a looming threat: Facebook’s apparent inability to police dangerous falsehoods about vaccines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since the outset of the pandemic, vaccine-related falsehoods have ballooned on the platform — and recent research suggests some of those inaccurate posts are gaining traction among people who weren’t previously opposed to vaccinations. Part of the problem appears to be the way Facebook’s algorithms \u003ca href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-knows-it-encourages-division-top-executives-nixed-solutions-11590507499\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">capitalize on divisive or extremist content\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Compounding the issue is Facebook’s history of hesitating to address misinformation until a particular subject has snowballed into an urgent problem. In the middle of a global measles outbreak last year spurred by low vaccination rates, Facebook rolled out a series of policies to curb vaccine misinformation. But the changes did little to prevent the problem from resurfacing again amid the COVID-19 pandemic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Concerned that Facebook’s failure to crack down on vaccine falsehoods will backfire at the worst possible time, advocates and scientists have called on Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg to take action.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“COVID-19 misinformation is the equivalent of an ideological dirty bomb: It has the capacity to hurt tens of thousands of people when it detonates in the moment that vaccines are available,” said Imran Ahmed, founder and chief executive officer of the U.K.-based nonprofit Center for Countering Digital Hate, which recently assessed the growing influence of anti-vaccination content on social media platforms including Facebook since the outset of the pandemic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Facebook did not respond to a request for comment about its efforts to combat COVID-19 vaccine information. But in a July \u003ca href=\"https://252f2edd-1c8b-49f5-9bb2-cb57bb47e4ba.filesusr.com/ugd/f4d9b9_7aa1bf9819904295a0493a013b285a6b.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">report\u003c/a>, Ahmed’s organization assessed the influence of 409 English-language social media accounts sharing anti-vaccination content between May and June of 2020, just after the pandemic began. The report found that falsehoods about a COVID-19 vaccine have been prevalent on Facebook and other social media sites for months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a dire situation — and one that has only worsened with time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The first thing that came back from our researchers was, ‘Oh no. They’ve grown a lot,’” Ahmed said. In their sample, Facebook groups and pages spreading vaccination falsehoods had over 31 million followers, representing more than half of the combined following of all the social media accounts they studied.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among the pages spreading falsehoods, the researchers identified one prominent category: people who sell or profit off of vaccine misinformation. These “anti-vaccination entrepreneurs” — who collectively garnered a total following of 28 million people — saw their followers grow by 854,000 between May and June. Zeroing in on groups, the researchers identified 64 that regularly shared vaccine misinformation, with a collective following of 1 million that has also kept growing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Based on the research findings, Ahmed is deeply concerned that the growth in vaccine-related falsehoods will sow distrust in an eventual vaccine before one even arrives.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Personally, I’m scared,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since people have been asked to stay at home, more conversations have moved online — giving misinformation a chance to gain even more of a foothold on social media sites. Anti-vaccination content, in particular, has thrived.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s basically like if you injected adrenaline into them,” said Neil Johnson, a professor of physics and researcher at the Institute for Data, Democracy, & Politics at George Washington University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In May, Johnson and his colleagues \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2281-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">published a study in Nature\u003c/a> that showed a sizable uptick in the followers of pages promoting anti-vaccine rhetoric on Facebook between February and October of 2019. While pages spreading falsehoods about vaccines had fewer followers than pages that shared factual vaccine content, the researchers found that there were more pages spreading falsehoods, and those pages were faster-growing and increasingly more connected to neutral pages where people did not yet have a clear leaning one way or the other. If the trend continues, Johnson predicted that anti-vaccination rhetoric will dominate online discussion by 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He and his team have been studying the change on a rolling basis in the months since their study ended — and from their view, the problem is growing more pressing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Based on what we’re seeing now, “it would only take something to go wrong with one of the vaccines and then that [change] would happen in a year,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Critics say another possible factor in the social media giant’s failure to get rid of vaccine misinformation is Zuckerberg’s own approach to moderation. Zuckerberg has, in the past, presented the social network \u003ca href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebooks-mark-zuckerberg-defends-free-speech-amid-calls-for-tighter-controls-11571335528?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">as a stalwart of free speech\u003c/a>, even if that speech is potentially harmful — one of the reasons the company has \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/technology/facebook-political-ads-lies.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">repeatedly opted to permit lies in political ads\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In recent months, some of Zuckerberg’s dissenters have appealed to his more philanthropic intentions. In a June letter, hundreds of scientists affiliated with the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative — the research organization he and his wife, pediatrician Priscilla Chan, founded in 2015 — \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/06/in-unusual-revolt-scientists-funded-by-mark-zuckerberg-criticize-facebooks-inaction-on-president-trumps-posts/\">called the social network’s practices “antithetical”\u003c/a> to their benefactor’s mission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The spread of news that is not vetted for factual accuracy leads to confusion and a mistrust of experts,” they wrote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Facebook’s failure to eradicate scientific falsehoods is difficult to reconcile with the research efforts spearheaded by the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. While Facebook has avoided public calls to uniformly crack down on misinformation, Zuckerberg and Chan have continued to funnel millions into CZI, including funding for several research efforts aimed at better understanding the spread of the coronavirus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In April, Zuckerberg and Chan invested \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/chan-zuckerberg-initiative-funds-bay-area-coronavirus-tracking/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$13.6 million into a pair of coronavirus studies\u003c/a>, led by CZI, to flag new infections and better understand how immunity to the virus develops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“From my vantage point, we’re all just trying to figure out how to do our part to answer these questions and rebuild,” Chan said in an interview with STAT in April. At the same time, though, rampant falsehoods about the virus — including the dangerous notion that an eventual vaccine will be deadly — were spreading quickly across Facebook.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not that Facebook is doing nothing about the issue; rather, its piecemeal approaches are simply too little too late, according to researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last March, amid worldwide measles outbreaks, for example, the company instituted its first policy to combat vaccine misinformation, which involved using its algorithms to demote groups and pages that spread vaccine-related falsehoods and to exclude them from recommendations and predictions when users search within the platform. But as researchers pointed out at the time, demoting certain pages doesn’t stop anti-vaccination conversations from cropping up in others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among the pages where Johnson found anti-vaccine falsehoods, most were dedicated to things like hobbies and mutual interests. There were pages tailored to parents of kids who played soccer, people who like cats, and aficionados of organic produce, for example. But every so often, a strand of a conversation about something like the best way to treat a leg sprain would devolve into an inaccurate — and dangerous — diatribe against vaccines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Often in these communities, the number of what I’d call ‘bad’ posts is small — they’re mostly talking about cats or their favorite sports team or whatever, and then all of a sudden there’s a post stuck in there about vaccines,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More recently in response to the coronavirus, Facebook began targeting people who had interacted with certain COVID-19 falsehoods with generic messages that read, “Help friends and family avoid false information about COVID-19.” Those messages point users to the World Health Organization’s myth-busting page about the coronavirus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While Facebook \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/facebooks-covid-19-misinformation-campaign-is-based-on-research-the-authors-worry-facebook-missed-the-message/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said the strategy was based on psychological research\u003c/a>, the authors of the studies the platform cited as justification for their policies told STAT in May that Facebook seemed to have misinterpreted their findings. Rather than placing a generic message in people’s news feeds, Facebook should be correcting falsehoods by providing the facts, the researchers said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Experts said that if Facebook is to combat misinformation in time for the arrival of an eventual coronavirus vaccine, there’s a significant amount of work that needs to happen quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to be a heavy lift,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was originally published by \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">STAT\u003c/a>, an online publication of Boston Globe Media that covers health, medicine, and scientific discovery.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"datePublished": "2020-07-28T12:45:18-07:00",
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"nprByline": " Erin Brodwin \u003cbr />STAT\u003cbr>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>As scientists begin to clear a path to a potential coronavirus vaccine, researchers and advocates are increasingly sounding the alarm over what they see as a looming threat: Facebook’s apparent inability to police dangerous falsehoods about vaccines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since the outset of the pandemic, vaccine-related falsehoods have ballooned on the platform — and recent research suggests some of those inaccurate posts are gaining traction among people who weren’t previously opposed to vaccinations. Part of the problem appears to be the way Facebook’s algorithms \u003ca href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-knows-it-encourages-division-top-executives-nixed-solutions-11590507499\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">capitalize on divisive or extremist content\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Compounding the issue is Facebook’s history of hesitating to address misinformation until a particular subject has snowballed into an urgent problem. In the middle of a global measles outbreak last year spurred by low vaccination rates, Facebook rolled out a series of policies to curb vaccine misinformation. But the changes did little to prevent the problem from resurfacing again amid the COVID-19 pandemic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Concerned that Facebook’s failure to crack down on vaccine falsehoods will backfire at the worst possible time, advocates and scientists have called on Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg to take action.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“COVID-19 misinformation is the equivalent of an ideological dirty bomb: It has the capacity to hurt tens of thousands of people when it detonates in the moment that vaccines are available,” said Imran Ahmed, founder and chief executive officer of the U.K.-based nonprofit Center for Countering Digital Hate, which recently assessed the growing influence of anti-vaccination content on social media platforms including Facebook since the outset of the pandemic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Facebook did not respond to a request for comment about its efforts to combat COVID-19 vaccine information. But in a July \u003ca href=\"https://252f2edd-1c8b-49f5-9bb2-cb57bb47e4ba.filesusr.com/ugd/f4d9b9_7aa1bf9819904295a0493a013b285a6b.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">report\u003c/a>, Ahmed’s organization assessed the influence of 409 English-language social media accounts sharing anti-vaccination content between May and June of 2020, just after the pandemic began. The report found that falsehoods about a COVID-19 vaccine have been prevalent on Facebook and other social media sites for months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a dire situation — and one that has only worsened with time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The first thing that came back from our researchers was, ‘Oh no. They’ve grown a lot,’” Ahmed said. In their sample, Facebook groups and pages spreading vaccination falsehoods had over 31 million followers, representing more than half of the combined following of all the social media accounts they studied.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among the pages spreading falsehoods, the researchers identified one prominent category: people who sell or profit off of vaccine misinformation. These “anti-vaccination entrepreneurs” — who collectively garnered a total following of 28 million people — saw their followers grow by 854,000 between May and June. Zeroing in on groups, the researchers identified 64 that regularly shared vaccine misinformation, with a collective following of 1 million that has also kept growing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Based on the research findings, Ahmed is deeply concerned that the growth in vaccine-related falsehoods will sow distrust in an eventual vaccine before one even arrives.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Personally, I’m scared,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since people have been asked to stay at home, more conversations have moved online — giving misinformation a chance to gain even more of a foothold on social media sites. Anti-vaccination content, in particular, has thrived.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s basically like if you injected adrenaline into them,” said Neil Johnson, a professor of physics and researcher at the Institute for Data, Democracy, & Politics at George Washington University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In May, Johnson and his colleagues \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2281-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">published a study in Nature\u003c/a> that showed a sizable uptick in the followers of pages promoting anti-vaccine rhetoric on Facebook between February and October of 2019. While pages spreading falsehoods about vaccines had fewer followers than pages that shared factual vaccine content, the researchers found that there were more pages spreading falsehoods, and those pages were faster-growing and increasingly more connected to neutral pages where people did not yet have a clear leaning one way or the other. If the trend continues, Johnson predicted that anti-vaccination rhetoric will dominate online discussion by 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He and his team have been studying the change on a rolling basis in the months since their study ended — and from their view, the problem is growing more pressing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Based on what we’re seeing now, “it would only take something to go wrong with one of the vaccines and then that [change] would happen in a year,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Critics say another possible factor in the social media giant’s failure to get rid of vaccine misinformation is Zuckerberg’s own approach to moderation. Zuckerberg has, in the past, presented the social network \u003ca href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebooks-mark-zuckerberg-defends-free-speech-amid-calls-for-tighter-controls-11571335528?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">as a stalwart of free speech\u003c/a>, even if that speech is potentially harmful — one of the reasons the company has \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/technology/facebook-political-ads-lies.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">repeatedly opted to permit lies in political ads\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In recent months, some of Zuckerberg’s dissenters have appealed to his more philanthropic intentions. In a June letter, hundreds of scientists affiliated with the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative — the research organization he and his wife, pediatrician Priscilla Chan, founded in 2015 — \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/06/in-unusual-revolt-scientists-funded-by-mark-zuckerberg-criticize-facebooks-inaction-on-president-trumps-posts/\">called the social network’s practices “antithetical”\u003c/a> to their benefactor’s mission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The spread of news that is not vetted for factual accuracy leads to confusion and a mistrust of experts,” they wrote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Facebook’s failure to eradicate scientific falsehoods is difficult to reconcile with the research efforts spearheaded by the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. While Facebook has avoided public calls to uniformly crack down on misinformation, Zuckerberg and Chan have continued to funnel millions into CZI, including funding for several research efforts aimed at better understanding the spread of the coronavirus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In April, Zuckerberg and Chan invested \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/chan-zuckerberg-initiative-funds-bay-area-coronavirus-tracking/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$13.6 million into a pair of coronavirus studies\u003c/a>, led by CZI, to flag new infections and better understand how immunity to the virus develops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“From my vantage point, we’re all just trying to figure out how to do our part to answer these questions and rebuild,” Chan said in an interview with STAT in April. At the same time, though, rampant falsehoods about the virus — including the dangerous notion that an eventual vaccine will be deadly — were spreading quickly across Facebook.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not that Facebook is doing nothing about the issue; rather, its piecemeal approaches are simply too little too late, according to researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last March, amid worldwide measles outbreaks, for example, the company instituted its first policy to combat vaccine misinformation, which involved using its algorithms to demote groups and pages that spread vaccine-related falsehoods and to exclude them from recommendations and predictions when users search within the platform. But as researchers pointed out at the time, demoting certain pages doesn’t stop anti-vaccination conversations from cropping up in others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among the pages where Johnson found anti-vaccine falsehoods, most were dedicated to things like hobbies and mutual interests. There were pages tailored to parents of kids who played soccer, people who like cats, and aficionados of organic produce, for example. But every so often, a strand of a conversation about something like the best way to treat a leg sprain would devolve into an inaccurate — and dangerous — diatribe against vaccines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Often in these communities, the number of what I’d call ‘bad’ posts is small — they’re mostly talking about cats or their favorite sports team or whatever, and then all of a sudden there’s a post stuck in there about vaccines,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More recently in response to the coronavirus, Facebook began targeting people who had interacted with certain COVID-19 falsehoods with generic messages that read, “Help friends and family avoid false information about COVID-19.” Those messages point users to the World Health Organization’s myth-busting page about the coronavirus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While Facebook \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/facebooks-covid-19-misinformation-campaign-is-based-on-research-the-authors-worry-facebook-missed-the-message/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said the strategy was based on psychological research\u003c/a>, the authors of the studies the platform cited as justification for their policies told STAT in May that Facebook seemed to have misinterpreted their findings. Rather than placing a generic message in people’s news feeds, Facebook should be correcting falsehoods by providing the facts, the researchers said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Experts said that if Facebook is to combat misinformation in time for the arrival of an eventual coronavirus vaccine, there’s a significant amount of work that needs to happen quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to be a heavy lift,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was originally published by \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">STAT\u003c/a>, an online publication of Boston Globe Media that covers health, medicine, and scientific discovery.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Inside SF's New Biosafety Lab, Where Scientists Wrangle Live Coronavirus",
"headTitle": "Inside SF’s New Biosafety Lab, Where Scientists Wrangle Live Coronavirus | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>There’s so much scientists still don’t know about the novel coronavirus: basic stuff, like how exactly it invades a host’s healthy cells, the molecular interactions that enable it to spread through the body and why it affects some people more than others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a handful of labs in the Bay Area, including ones at UCSF and UC Berkeley, are trying to gain a better understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 behaves by doing basic research with live virus. The work could help scientists develop and test new treatments or vaccines to target the virus more effectively.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To handle live coronavirus and other potential deadly airborne pathogens, these labs must meet strict Biosafety Level 3 (BSL-3) \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/infographics/biosafety.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">containment requirements\u003c/a> set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On a recent visit to San Francisco’s \u003ca href=\"https://gladstone.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Gladstone Institutes\u003c/a>, we got a look inside its newly launched BSL-3 lab (before any live virus arrived) with Dr. Melanie Ott, director of the Gladstone Institute of Virology, and lab director Mauricio Montano.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As I learned, getting into a BSL-3 lab requires a few extra steps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>From Surgical Mask to ‘Space Suit’\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967668\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1967668\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">To enter the BSL-3 lab, researchers must go from street clothes to scrubs to full body suits. Here, reporter Peter Arcuni steps into the “clean space” with booties over his sneakers. \u003ccite>(Peter Arcuni/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>These days, a basic cloth facial covering or surgical mask is required even to enter Gladstone’s Mission Bay headquarters. But gaining access to the BSL-3 lab requires two more wardrobe changes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The first takes place in a locker room, where researchers go from street clothes into scrubs, gloves and a bonnet that resembles a gauzy shower cap.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s part of the sacrifice of making sure everybody’s safe and clean,” Montano said. Then he walked me through the protocol for putting a pair of booties on over my sneakers, before stepping over a line of yellow tape on the floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You’ll put a booty on one foot, and then you’ll be able to plant your foot into this clean space. And then you’ll put the other booty on and you’ll be able to walk in here,” he coached.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It took me a few tries to get it right.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even very experienced Ph.D.-level virologists who come in here for the first time will have the same experience,” Montano said. “The environment requires a really hyperactive vigilance.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Next we head down the hall to the BSL-3 lab’s secure anteroom. A digital monitor by the door showed the air pressure as negative, which ensures that no aerosolized particles (stuff floating in the air) can escape. Instead, a high-powered HVAC system draws in the lab’s air and cleans it with a series of filters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A BSL-3 is like a giant vacuum cleaner,” Montano said. “No pathogens or anything could come out of that room.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967660\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1967660\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-2048x1367.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-1920x1282.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Dr. Melanie Ott, director of the Gladstone Institute of Virology, inside the BSL-3 lab, where researchers will try to learn how the coronavirus infects a host’s cells and spreads through the body. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of Gladstone Institutes)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The lab’s safety is closely monitored by officials at UCSF, as well as state and federal health regulators.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Once inside with the anteroom’s outer door shut, scientists will don Tyvek hazmat suits — or “space suits,” as Montano calls them — and respiratory purifiers to filter out potential pathogens. Only then can they enter the lab’s inner workspace. (Because there was no live virus present during our visit, we skipped this last step.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here researchers will work with the virus with gloved hands reaching inside glass-shielded biosafety cabinets that resemble laboratory hoods from chemistry class.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Any physical waste, like used reagents, that needs to leave the room must first be sterilized by the lab’s autoclave, which is essentially a high-temperature medical-grade pressure cooker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“\u003c/i>Anything to come out of here basically has to be dead and has to be clean,” Montano said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As I always say, I feel much safer here than I feel at the local grocery store,” Ott added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>‘We Know Very Little About This Virus’\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ott says the ability to work with active SARS-CoV-2 opens up avenues of inquiry that aren’t possible using inactive viral fragments or looking at genomic sequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“\u003c/i>A Biosafety Level 3 lab is allowing you to work with dangerous viruses that are actually fully functional and replicating,” Ott said. “So you can study the virus, the full viral life cycle, in an animal or in a cell.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967674\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1967674\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Before leaving the room, waste and unused research materials need to be sterilized by the lab’s autoclave, which is essentially a medical-grade pressure cooker. \u003ccite>(Peter Arcuni)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The lab is equipped to run animal studies using mice, which will be housed in cages inside.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The approach, she says, can uncover ways to interfere with that life cycle either by attacking the virus itself or by targeting parts of the host cells that the virus interacts with to block it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re coming really from the mechanistic side,” Ott said. “You’re diving deep into the interaction of the virus with the host.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ott says scientists still don’t fully understand precisely how the coronavirus spreads throughout the body.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have to learn how it engages the upper airway, how it gets into the lower airway and how it disseminates into other organs from there,” she said. “There’s a lot that we don’t know\u003ci>.”\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To tackle this, Ott says the lab plans to culture the types of cells that are the primary or secondary targets of the virus. These include lung, gut, liver and heart cells\u003ci>.\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So we are trying to reconstruct the more complex cell systems in a dish and then see how the virus behaves,” Ott said. “Is it infecting everybody? Is it infecting dependent on a certain factor, like an important entry factor and receptor? Is that all mediated by this molecule?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gladstone’s BSL-3 lab, Ott says, can also serve as a place to test potential treatments and vaccines before they are tested in human subjects.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Before you go into a clinical trial, you want to make sure that what you’re doing is efficient, that it’s actually doing what it’s supposed to do,” Ott said. “These preclinical studies can give you a much better idea about what exactly is happening when you give that drug to a patient.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>‘Too Many Questions to Answer At Once’\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gladstone’s new facility will allow virologists to gain a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2, but the virus is a puzzle with many pieces.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s too many questions to answer at once,” Ott said. “Collaboration, I think, is absolutely essential. … This has been unprecedented, at least in my experience, how people have come together around this virus.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967662\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1967662\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Lab director Mauricio Montano with his hands inside a biosafety cabinet. To work with active SARS-CoV-2, labs need to meet biosafety level 3 containment requirements set by the CDC. . \u003ccite>(Peter Arcuni/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In preparation for the new lab’s launch, Ott partnered with UCSF’s BSL-3 to culture cells and prepare the virus for transfer to Gladstone. She’s collaborating with other researchers at the university who have identified \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2286-9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">more than 300 interactions\u003c/a> between SARS-CoV-2 and human proteins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are in very good relationship with all the BSL-3s here in the Bay Area,” Ott said. “Stanford, Berkeley, UCSF, I think everybody recognizes that these laboratories are in short supply.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are roughly 200 BSL-3 labs throughout the U.S., according to a \u003ca href=\"https://www.selectagents.gov/resources/FSAP_Annual_Report_2018_508.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2018 report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At this point, Ott says, the coronavirus pandemic has affected everyone. Her brother-in-law, a physician in a small Austrian village, contracted the virus and became seriously ill. But the science, she says, gives her hope.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“\u003c/i>You see all the politics, you see all the rush. But at the end,” she says, “you settle down, you look at your data and you see that you’re making progress.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The basic coronavirus research done by Gladstone and its collaborators, Ott says, could help fight not only this virus, but the next wave as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“\u003c/i>It’s a constant evolutionary battle,” says Ott. “There will be other clever viruses, whether they’re coronaviruses or influenza viruses or even something like HIV. So it’s important to have facilities like this where we can prepare for the future pandemics that are coming.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>There’s so much scientists still don’t know about the novel coronavirus: basic stuff, like how exactly it invades a host’s healthy cells, the molecular interactions that enable it to spread through the body and why it affects some people more than others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a handful of labs in the Bay Area, including ones at UCSF and UC Berkeley, are trying to gain a better understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 behaves by doing basic research with live virus. The work could help scientists develop and test new treatments or vaccines to target the virus more effectively.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To handle live coronavirus and other potential deadly airborne pathogens, these labs must meet strict Biosafety Level 3 (BSL-3) \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/infographics/biosafety.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">containment requirements\u003c/a> set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On a recent visit to San Francisco’s \u003ca href=\"https://gladstone.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Gladstone Institutes\u003c/a>, we got a look inside its newly launched BSL-3 lab (before any live virus arrived) with Dr. Melanie Ott, director of the Gladstone Institute of Virology, and lab director Mauricio Montano.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As I learned, getting into a BSL-3 lab requires a few extra steps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>From Surgical Mask to ‘Space Suit’\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967668\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1967668\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-3-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">To enter the BSL-3 lab, researchers must go from street clothes to scrubs to full body suits. Here, reporter Peter Arcuni steps into the “clean space” with booties over his sneakers. \u003ccite>(Peter Arcuni/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>These days, a basic cloth facial covering or surgical mask is required even to enter Gladstone’s Mission Bay headquarters. But gaining access to the BSL-3 lab requires two more wardrobe changes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The first takes place in a locker room, where researchers go from street clothes into scrubs, gloves and a bonnet that resembles a gauzy shower cap.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s part of the sacrifice of making sure everybody’s safe and clean,” Montano said. Then he walked me through the protocol for putting a pair of booties on over my sneakers, before stepping over a line of yellow tape on the floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You’ll put a booty on one foot, and then you’ll be able to plant your foot into this clean space. And then you’ll put the other booty on and you’ll be able to walk in here,” he coached.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It took me a few tries to get it right.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even very experienced Ph.D.-level virologists who come in here for the first time will have the same experience,” Montano said. “The environment requires a really hyperactive vigilance.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Next we head down the hall to the BSL-3 lab’s secure anteroom. A digital monitor by the door showed the air pressure as negative, which ensures that no aerosolized particles (stuff floating in the air) can escape. Instead, a high-powered HVAC system draws in the lab’s air and cleans it with a series of filters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A BSL-3 is like a giant vacuum cleaner,” Montano said. “No pathogens or anything could come out of that room.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967660\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1967660\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-2048x1367.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-BSL3-facility8-1920x1282.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Dr. Melanie Ott, director of the Gladstone Institute of Virology, inside the BSL-3 lab, where researchers will try to learn how the coronavirus infects a host’s cells and spreads through the body. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of Gladstone Institutes)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The lab’s safety is closely monitored by officials at UCSF, as well as state and federal health regulators.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Once inside with the anteroom’s outer door shut, scientists will don Tyvek hazmat suits — or “space suits,” as Montano calls them — and respiratory purifiers to filter out potential pathogens. Only then can they enter the lab’s inner workspace. (Because there was no live virus present during our visit, we skipped this last step.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here researchers will work with the virus with gloved hands reaching inside glass-shielded biosafety cabinets that resemble laboratory hoods from chemistry class.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Any physical waste, like used reagents, that needs to leave the room must first be sterilized by the lab’s autoclave, which is essentially a high-temperature medical-grade pressure cooker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“\u003c/i>Anything to come out of here basically has to be dead and has to be clean,” Montano said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As I always say, I feel much safer here than I feel at the local grocery store,” Ott added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>‘We Know Very Little About This Virus’\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ott says the ability to work with active SARS-CoV-2 opens up avenues of inquiry that aren’t possible using inactive viral fragments or looking at genomic sequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“\u003c/i>A Biosafety Level 3 lab is allowing you to work with dangerous viruses that are actually fully functional and replicating,” Ott said. “So you can study the virus, the full viral life cycle, in an animal or in a cell.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967674\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1967674\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-Autoclave-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Before leaving the room, waste and unused research materials need to be sterilized by the lab’s autoclave, which is essentially a medical-grade pressure cooker. \u003ccite>(Peter Arcuni)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The lab is equipped to run animal studies using mice, which will be housed in cages inside.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The approach, she says, can uncover ways to interfere with that life cycle either by attacking the virus itself or by targeting parts of the host cells that the virus interacts with to block it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re coming really from the mechanistic side,” Ott said. “You’re diving deep into the interaction of the virus with the host.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ott says scientists still don’t fully understand precisely how the coronavirus spreads throughout the body.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have to learn how it engages the upper airway, how it gets into the lower airway and how it disseminates into other organs from there,” she said. “There’s a lot that we don’t know\u003ci>.”\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To tackle this, Ott says the lab plans to culture the types of cells that are the primary or secondary targets of the virus. These include lung, gut, liver and heart cells\u003ci>.\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So we are trying to reconstruct the more complex cell systems in a dish and then see how the virus behaves,” Ott said. “Is it infecting everybody? Is it infecting dependent on a certain factor, like an important entry factor and receptor? Is that all mediated by this molecule?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gladstone’s BSL-3 lab, Ott says, can also serve as a place to test potential treatments and vaccines before they are tested in human subjects.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Before you go into a clinical trial, you want to make sure that what you’re doing is efficient, that it’s actually doing what it’s supposed to do,” Ott said. “These preclinical studies can give you a much better idea about what exactly is happening when you give that drug to a patient.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>‘Too Many Questions to Answer At Once’\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gladstone’s new facility will allow virologists to gain a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2, but the virus is a puzzle with many pieces.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s too many questions to answer at once,” Ott said. “Collaboration, I think, is absolutely essential. … This has been unprecedented, at least in my experience, how people have come together around this virus.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967662\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1967662\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Gladstone-2-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Lab director Mauricio Montano with his hands inside a biosafety cabinet. To work with active SARS-CoV-2, labs need to meet biosafety level 3 containment requirements set by the CDC. . \u003ccite>(Peter Arcuni/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In preparation for the new lab’s launch, Ott partnered with UCSF’s BSL-3 to culture cells and prepare the virus for transfer to Gladstone. She’s collaborating with other researchers at the university who have identified \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2286-9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">more than 300 interactions\u003c/a> between SARS-CoV-2 and human proteins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are in very good relationship with all the BSL-3s here in the Bay Area,” Ott said. “Stanford, Berkeley, UCSF, I think everybody recognizes that these laboratories are in short supply.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are roughly 200 BSL-3 labs throughout the U.S., according to a \u003ca href=\"https://www.selectagents.gov/resources/FSAP_Annual_Report_2018_508.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2018 report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At this point, Ott says, the coronavirus pandemic has affected everyone. Her brother-in-law, a physician in a small Austrian village, contracted the virus and became seriously ill. But the science, she says, gives her hope.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“\u003c/i>You see all the politics, you see all the rush. But at the end,” she says, “you settle down, you look at your data and you see that you’re making progress.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The basic coronavirus research done by Gladstone and its collaborators, Ott says, could help fight not only this virus, but the next wave as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“\u003c/i>It’s a constant evolutionary battle,” says Ott. “There will be other clever viruses, whether they’re coronaviruses or influenza viruses or even something like HIV. So it’s important to have facilities like this where we can prepare for the future pandemics that are coming.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "COVID-19 Risk in Schools: What You Should Know",
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"content": "\u003cp class=\"p1\">Currently, 36 counties are on California’s watchlist of places where the coronavirus is trending too far in the wrong direction. Among other negative consequences of making the list, all public and private schools located in those counties are prohibited from holding \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20Library/COVID-19/Schools%20Reopening%20Recommendations.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">in-person classes\u003c/a> until their COVID-19 numbers have improved enough to meet established thresholds for 14 consecutive days. School districts subject to the restriction can request a waiver for elementary schools only.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">KQED’s Brian Watt last Thursday spoke with \u003cstrong>Dr. Naomi Bardach\u003c/strong>, associate professor of pediatrics and health policy at UCSF, about the risk involved in bringing back classrooms for the upcoming school year, and the differences between how kids and adults both catch and spread the virus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>The following has been edited for length and clarity.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>We know\u003c/strong> t\u003cstrong>here is less risk for young kids when it comes to COVID-19. Is this true for both contracting and transmitting the coronavirus?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cem>Naomi Bardach\u003c/em>: Yes, and it’s pretty well-documented globally as well as locally. It doesn’t mean there’s zero risk for kids to either get it or transmit it, but they have a much, much lower rate, particularly in transmitting it, compared to adults and even high schoolers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[emailsignup newslettername='science' align='right']\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">It’s important to make the distinction between elementary school kids and high school kids. It’s the elementary school age kids where we’re really seeing that difference.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>What is it about younger kids that provides greater protection from the coronavirus?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">There are a lot of different theories that have been floated. The best science we have right now to help explain it is a study that was done looking at what’s called the ACE2 receptors, which are how the coronavirus gets into the body. They’re basically the doorway, and if you don’t have a doorway, you can’t get in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766524\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">study\u003c/a>, published in \u003cem>JAMA,\u003c/em> looked at ACE2 gene expression in the nose. Meaning, do you or do you not make the ACE2 receptor in your nose. What they saw is that in the youngest age group, the 4- to 9-year-olds, there’s very little gene expression. There’s more gene expression in the middle school and high school age group. And then there’s even more in adults. So that kind of reflects the transmission patterns and how frequently kids are getting it in those different age groups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>Are there places in schools where the risk is higher?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The thing I’ve seen both in health care and also in an indoor camp setting where I’ve been doing some pilot testing is that our tendency as adults is to feel like when we are not working with children or not working with patients, we let our guard down. We’re in the break room and we’re eating food and we are sitting next to each other, not 6 feet away, and the mask comes off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The other place that I would worry more about the transmission is with high school-aged kids. We know from the science and from epidemiology that they’re more likely to transmit at the student level. We need to think through hybrid curriculum and creative ways of making sure that they’re not passing things around.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>What do communities need to consider when thinking about letting kids back in the schools?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">There’s one really important thing to think about, which is that our mental model of kids being viral vectors, viral cesspools, needs to change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">We’re just very used to thinking about kids, especially young kids, as [sources of] infection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">But adults teaching young kids, and families with young kids at home, are not as likely to get the virus. For high school-aged kids, it’s clear from the data and the epidemiology, as well as some of the basic science, they are the kids that you need to worry about more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">So our educational approaches are going to have to be different in the elementary schools versus the high schools. And as we think about teachers going back to school, it’s the adult-to-adult transmission that is the most important place to be focusing our efforts. That’s why in places with a high community prevalence, there’s a worry about opening schools. But [the lower transmission rate for children] also means that we have more control over viral transmission in a school setting than we thought when we imagined it was the children who are going to be transmitting the most.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>What should families be thinking about when it comes to school this year?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">There are risks at a societal level and there are risks at the individual level, and they’re both things that parents and families should be thinking about.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The risk to society and the effects we know come from schools being closed include poor educational outcomes for kids, which I think people really saw in the spring when schools were shut down, with very limited access to being able to learn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">That was exacerbating very clear existing disparities for kids who are poorer and have less access to the internet and devices at home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then there’s also very serious issues around mental health outcomes. So a lot more depression and anxiety in kids all across the socioeconomic spectrum — poor kids, rich kids, everybody struggling a lot. That’s important to be thinking about as we try to advocate for do we reopen or do we not reopen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other piece is the individual decision-making for parents. What is your school doing to help mitigate and decrease risk of transmission? There is also your own tolerance for risk to you and your family to consider.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>Do you have any advice for parents to do better with distance learning?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">That is such an important question, and it is extraordinarily hard to answer. As both a pediatrician and a mom, I struggle with it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">One important thing is acknowledging and recognizing the challenge for students of being distracted by screens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">If they’re on Zoom with their school, it’s very hard for them to resist going to other parts of their device, getting access to YouTube, to playing games, and to other things online. I haven’t seen a good technological solution to that yet. So, talk to them about the fact that distraction is hard and try to set it up so they have ways of limiting that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other thing is mental health. As this goes on for a long time, try to help students figure out how to have relationships, things like social distancing walks. Continuing their relationships is going to be extremely important. And being able to talk about their emotions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>Are there some overall messages for us to keep in mind as this pandemic evolves?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">In some discussions, people set it up as a conflict between teachers and families, or teachers and pediatricians, with pediatricians and families wanting the kids to go back and the teachers saying no. I would say we need to support our teachers. They have to stay safe. We have to provide them with resources and testing capacity to be able to teach in a safe manner. We are all in it together. COVID is the enemy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Also, we know a lot more than we did in March about how to mitigate risk. So we do know how to do it safely. We’ve seen other countries, reopen with relatively low community prevalence and they have zero infections, especially in their elementary schools, and they can control it in their high schools with hybrid curricula. So we know it can be done. We just need to commit to doing it as a society.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">My last take is, right now, we’re in a surge. As we get to the next stage, we need to open schools before we open bars and restaurants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\n\u003c/p>\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "KQED's Brian Watt speaks with Dr. Naomi Bardach, associate professor of pediatrics and health policy at UCSF, about the risk involved in bringing back classrooms for the upcoming school year, and the differences between how kids and adults catch and spread the virus.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp class=\"p1\">Currently, 36 counties are on California’s watchlist of places where the coronavirus is trending too far in the wrong direction. Among other negative consequences of making the list, all public and private schools located in those counties are prohibited from holding \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20Library/COVID-19/Schools%20Reopening%20Recommendations.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">in-person classes\u003c/a> until their COVID-19 numbers have improved enough to meet established thresholds for 14 consecutive days. School districts subject to the restriction can request a waiver for elementary schools only.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">KQED’s Brian Watt last Thursday spoke with \u003cstrong>Dr. Naomi Bardach\u003c/strong>, associate professor of pediatrics and health policy at UCSF, about the risk involved in bringing back classrooms for the upcoming school year, and the differences between how kids and adults both catch and spread the virus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>The following has been edited for length and clarity.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>We know\u003c/strong> t\u003cstrong>here is less risk for young kids when it comes to COVID-19. Is this true for both contracting and transmitting the coronavirus?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cem>Naomi Bardach\u003c/em>: Yes, and it’s pretty well-documented globally as well as locally. It doesn’t mean there’s zero risk for kids to either get it or transmit it, but they have a much, much lower rate, particularly in transmitting it, compared to adults and even high schoolers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">It’s important to make the distinction between elementary school kids and high school kids. It’s the elementary school age kids where we’re really seeing that difference.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>What is it about younger kids that provides greater protection from the coronavirus?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">There are a lot of different theories that have been floated. The best science we have right now to help explain it is a study that was done looking at what’s called the ACE2 receptors, which are how the coronavirus gets into the body. They’re basically the doorway, and if you don’t have a doorway, you can’t get in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766524\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">study\u003c/a>, published in \u003cem>JAMA,\u003c/em> looked at ACE2 gene expression in the nose. Meaning, do you or do you not make the ACE2 receptor in your nose. What they saw is that in the youngest age group, the 4- to 9-year-olds, there’s very little gene expression. There’s more gene expression in the middle school and high school age group. And then there’s even more in adults. So that kind of reflects the transmission patterns and how frequently kids are getting it in those different age groups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>Are there places in schools where the risk is higher?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The thing I’ve seen both in health care and also in an indoor camp setting where I’ve been doing some pilot testing is that our tendency as adults is to feel like when we are not working with children or not working with patients, we let our guard down. We’re in the break room and we’re eating food and we are sitting next to each other, not 6 feet away, and the mask comes off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The other place that I would worry more about the transmission is with high school-aged kids. We know from the science and from epidemiology that they’re more likely to transmit at the student level. We need to think through hybrid curriculum and creative ways of making sure that they’re not passing things around.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>What do communities need to consider when thinking about letting kids back in the schools?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">There’s one really important thing to think about, which is that our mental model of kids being viral vectors, viral cesspools, needs to change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">We’re just very used to thinking about kids, especially young kids, as [sources of] infection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">But adults teaching young kids, and families with young kids at home, are not as likely to get the virus. For high school-aged kids, it’s clear from the data and the epidemiology, as well as some of the basic science, they are the kids that you need to worry about more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">So our educational approaches are going to have to be different in the elementary schools versus the high schools. And as we think about teachers going back to school, it’s the adult-to-adult transmission that is the most important place to be focusing our efforts. That’s why in places with a high community prevalence, there’s a worry about opening schools. But [the lower transmission rate for children] also means that we have more control over viral transmission in a school setting than we thought when we imagined it was the children who are going to be transmitting the most.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>What should families be thinking about when it comes to school this year?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">There are risks at a societal level and there are risks at the individual level, and they’re both things that parents and families should be thinking about.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The risk to society and the effects we know come from schools being closed include poor educational outcomes for kids, which I think people really saw in the spring when schools were shut down, with very limited access to being able to learn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">That was exacerbating very clear existing disparities for kids who are poorer and have less access to the internet and devices at home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then there’s also very serious issues around mental health outcomes. So a lot more depression and anxiety in kids all across the socioeconomic spectrum — poor kids, rich kids, everybody struggling a lot. That’s important to be thinking about as we try to advocate for do we reopen or do we not reopen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other piece is the individual decision-making for parents. What is your school doing to help mitigate and decrease risk of transmission? There is also your own tolerance for risk to you and your family to consider.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>Do you have any advice for parents to do better with distance learning?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">That is such an important question, and it is extraordinarily hard to answer. As both a pediatrician and a mom, I struggle with it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">One important thing is acknowledging and recognizing the challenge for students of being distracted by screens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">If they’re on Zoom with their school, it’s very hard for them to resist going to other parts of their device, getting access to YouTube, to playing games, and to other things online. I haven’t seen a good technological solution to that yet. So, talk to them about the fact that distraction is hard and try to set it up so they have ways of limiting that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other thing is mental health. As this goes on for a long time, try to help students figure out how to have relationships, things like social distancing walks. Continuing their relationships is going to be extremely important. And being able to talk about their emotions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\u003cstrong>Are there some overall messages for us to keep in mind as this pandemic evolves?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">In some discussions, people set it up as a conflict between teachers and families, or teachers and pediatricians, with pediatricians and families wanting the kids to go back and the teachers saying no. I would say we need to support our teachers. They have to stay safe. We have to provide them with resources and testing capacity to be able to teach in a safe manner. We are all in it together. COVID is the enemy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Also, we know a lot more than we did in March about how to mitigate risk. So we do know how to do it safely. We’ve seen other countries, reopen with relatively low community prevalence and they have zero infections, especially in their elementary schools, and they can control it in their high schools with hybrid curricula. So we know it can be done. We just need to commit to doing it as a society.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">My last take is, right now, we’re in a surge. As we get to the next stage, we need to open schools before we open bars and restaurants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">\n\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was originally published by \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/article/how-to-understand-covid-19-numbers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ProPublica.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"1.0\">It’s the middle of the summer, and the coronavirus has not gone away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"1.1\">When the pandemic first began, some had hoped that there’d be a lull during the summer, with the heat knocking the virus into submission, but it has continued its march across America, with outbreaks flaring across the southern and southwestern states. Arguments have also become part of the daily discourse, with people debating over case counts and death tolls, how the trends should be interpreted and whether the reported numbers can even be trusted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.0\">I’ve watched so many reporters, both at ProPublica and at other outlets, do their best to \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-doesnt-support-trumps-misleading-testing-claims\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">debunk myths\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/why-covid-death-rate-down/613945/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">demystify confusing trends\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.houstonchronicle.com/coronavirus/article/coronavirus-numbers-FAQ-pandemic-houston-chronicle-15350054.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">answer the public’s questions\u003c/a>. It is, frankly, exhausting, especially when the same arguments keep coming up again and again. I’m also concerned to see not just laypeople, but local and national leaders, using data out of context to justify their own narratives. At the same time, I see members of the public who are sincerely confused, trying to find a way through all the numbers and charts being thrown around, asking: “How concerned should I be right now? How bad are things, really?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.1\">So I wanted to step back and, with my colleague Ash Ngu, walk you through some common coronavirus metrics and explain how to interpret them. I hope this will leave you better equipped to assess claims with appropriate skepticism, filter out the garbage and find the real signal amid the noise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/newsletters/the-big-story?source=www.propublica.org&placement=top-note®ion=national\">ProPublica’s biggest stories\u003c/a> as soon as they’re published.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Case Counts Won’t Give You the Full Picture\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.2\">The first thing I asked experts was: What metric would you recommend I track if I wanted to understand what was going on in my state?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.3\">Both Matthew Fox, professor of epidemiology and global health at Boston University, and Youyang Gu, a data scientist best known for his COVID-19 \u003ca href=\"https://covid19-projections.com/about/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prediction models\u003c/a>, advised looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.4\">“Cases going up or down tells you a fair bit about what’s going on at the moment in terms of transmission of the virus — but it’s only valid if we’re testing enough people,” Fox said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.5\">When there aren’t enough tests available, as was the case in New York in March, the number of cases reported will be an undercount, perhaps by a lot. That’s where case positivity rates come in: that measures the percentage of total tests conducted that are coming back positive. It helps you get a sense of how much testing is being done overall in a region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"5.0\">“WHO \u003ca href=\"https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">guidelines\u003c/a> say we want that to be below 5%,” Fox noted. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases. When almost all of the tests come back negative, on the other hand, it’s a good indicator that a locality has enough tests available for everyone who wants one, and public health officials have an accurate picture of all the infections, Fox said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"5.1\">He gave the example of Massachusetts, where he lives. Currently, daily positive case counts have been steadily falling for the past three months. “The positivity rate is now below 2%, so I feel confident in saying that we know what’s going on, and it’s not that we’re not doing enough testing and we’re missing a lot of positive cases.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"5.2\">On the flip side, any state where the positivity rate is higher than 10% is “really going to worry me,” Fox said. “That tells me that we’re probably missing a fair number of cases, and you’re not doing enough testing to see what’s going on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"5.3\">Fox noted that some states in the Sun Belt, such as Arizona and Florida, have recently had very high positivity rates, even above 20%. “That means we don’t have full visibility.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967524\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.34-PM.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"444\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.34-PM.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.34-PM-160x93.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"7.0\">Deaths are also an important metric, because this is what most people care about when it comes to the virus’s ultimate impact, Gu said. “There are instances where you have clusters of infections but they’re mostly in young people, so you see a spike in cases, but not in deaths, because they’re all low-risk individuals — but if they were all to transmit it to their parents or older, high-risk individuals, or if the virus started going around long-term care homes, that’d be a high cause for concern.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"7.1\">Computational epidemiologist Maimuna Majumder also recommends tracking deaths. Even though deaths lag behind new cases, typically by three weeks to a month, “it’s a good indicator for just how serious of a burden this pandemic is causing, not only on our health care system, but also on the general public’s mental health and well-being.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"7.2\">Hospitalization data is another way to track the impact of the pandemic that has less of a lag than reported deaths. After the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services told hospitals this month to stop reporting data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and report directly to HHS instead, some of these numbers have \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1284967553056436225?s=20\">become more erratic\u003c/a>, according to \u003ca href=\"https://covidtracking.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The COVID Tracking Project\u003c/a>. Currently, all the states except for Hawaii and Kansas are reporting COVID-19 hospitalization data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Don’t Want to Be Wrong? Wait a Beat\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"7.3\">One of the easiest ways to be wrong when looking at the numbers is to focus on too small of a time frame. Look at case numbers on any given Sunday, and you might think that cases are falling, but you’d be fooled. Since some local labs and county health departments don’t report data on weekends, there’s a dip in numbers every Sunday and Monday, and then a corresponding surge on Tuesdays.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967527\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.35-PM.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"421\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.35-PM.jpg 781w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.35-PM-160x86.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.35-PM-768x414.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 781px) 100vw, 781px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.0\">To make sure you don’t get misled, it’s better to look at what’s called the rolling seven-day average, which takes each day’s number and averages it with the six days before it. Many trackers provide this figure to smooth out the data. Also, wait to see if the trend holds. It’s kind of like the stock market; it’s unhelpful to to obsess over daily swings. The experts I interviewed suggested waiting one, two or even three weeks to make sure that any trends you think you’ve spotted bear out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.1\">Let’s look at a specific claim to see how watching and waiting can make a difference in getting the whole story.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.2\">Over the past few weeks, President Donald Trump has emphasized that even while coronavirus cases have been rising in the U.S., that’s not a cause for concern because he insists the mortality rate is low. On Sunday, when Fox News host Chris Wallace \u003ca href=\"https://www.foxnews.com/politics/transcript-fox-news-sunday-interview-with-president-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">asked\u003c/a> him to address the fact that the U.S. had reached 900 coronavirus deaths on a single day, Trump responded: “I heard we had the best mortality rate. Number, number one low mortality rate.” This is untrue: the U.S. was about in the middle of the pack of 20 countries \u003ca href=\"https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">analyzed\u003c/a> by Johns Hopkins University on July 16.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.3\">Setting aside the hyperbole, it is true that the case fatality rate (i.e., the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed positive cases) has been gradually falling even as the daily case counts have soared.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.4\">So what’s going on there? Does this mean that the coronavirus is becoming less deadly?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.5\">Let’s look a little closer. We’ve known from early in the pandemic — even from the data coming out of China — that this coronavirus is less deadly to younger people and more deadly to older people. We’ve also come to learn that many people, \u003ca href=\"https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">as many as 40%\u003c/a>, infected with the coronavirus do not show any symptoms or have such mild symptoms that it would never have occurred to them that they could have COVID-19. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that if we have more testing capacity than early on in the pandemic and are now capturing younger people and more asymptomatic patients, that the case fatality rate would be lower than if the population that’s being tested is mainly older and sicker. That’s what’s been happening recently. Check out Florida: The \u003ca href=\"https://github.com/mbevand/florida-covid19-line-list-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">median age of residents\u003c/a> testing positive fell into the 30s in June from the 60s in March.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.6\">But the other critical thing to remember is that \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/trump-loves-the-low-daily-death-rate-for-covid-it-wont-last/2020/07/17/1cdfe752-c79d-11ea-b037-f9711f89ee46_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">deaths lag behind cases\u003c/a>. A patient may get tested once they have symptoms but take a while to get sick enough to need to go to the hospital. With COVID-19, many patients who unfortunately don’t survive are often in the ICU for many weeks before they die. Then there may be a few more days’ delay before the death certificate is recorded.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.7\">The delay between cases rising and deaths can be hard to see at a national level, because many states have different story arcs going on: Right now, New York is coming down from its big outbreak, while Texas’ big surge is still on the upswing. That muddles the national picture. But when we zoom in to one state, you can see the picture more clearly. Let’s take Florida as an example.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967528\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.37-PM.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"438\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.37-PM.jpg 773w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.37-PM-160x91.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.37-PM-768x435.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 773px) 100vw, 773px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.0\">There are other factors at play to consider as well when tackling a broad claim like, “Is COVID less deadly now?” such as hospital capacity. Dr. Michael Peters, an associate professor of medicine and pulmonologist at UC San Francisco, has treated patients both in San Francisco and in New York City. He flew to New York and worked at a hospital in Queens to help support the overwhelmed doctors during the peak of the city’s outbreak.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.1\">“It’s obviously the same disease, but we haven’t ever been overloaded at UCSF. There’s data that shows, and my personal experience suggests, that when systems are overloaded, patients do worse,” he said. “If you take the same 50-year-old man and put him in San Francisco in March versus New York in March, he’d do differently — it’s just that the capacity to take care of people was limited and impaired.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.2\">Peters explained that a lot of this has to do with the hands-on nature of care needed for the sickest of patients in ICUs. “Ventilators need to be watched and monitored to make sure you’re not getting too much air or too little air, because if you have too much air, that can cause injury to your lungs, so the doctors and nurses are constantly evaluating you.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.3\">With each passing month, researchers are learning more about how to best treat the sickest patients. While there still is no cure, there is now some evidence for how to use treatments such as remdesivir and dexamethasone, said Dr. Abraar Karan, an internal medicine doctor at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, so arguably, your chances of survival are better now than in February. “The longer you wait to be infected, the less chance you have of being part of an experiment, and the better chance you have to be receiving the outcome of a well-done experiment,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.4\">None of this means that the virus itself has become less deadly, noted Boston University’s Fox, so one has to be careful not to leap to the conclusion that just because the case fatality rate has been falling, that means that it’s safe for the elderly to mingle in crowds again.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>There Are Some Things We Can’t Know for Certain\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.5\">Another question that’s been on my mind is whether a layperson can see the effects of specific events on transmission. For example, have protests in my state driven an increase in COVID-19 cases or not?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.6\">I’ve already seen people on my social media feeds ardently declaring that protests either did or did not lead to more cases, and therefore this means that masks either do or do not work. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti first \u003ca href=\"https://www.foxla.com/news/mayor-garcetti-says-no-conclusive-evidence-showing-protests-contributed-to-rise-in-covid-19-cases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said\u003c/a> there was no “conclusive evidence” that the protests led to a rise in coronavirus cases, then a few days later he \u003ca href=\"https://www.foxnews.com/us/la-protests-linked-to-covid-spike-garcetti\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said\u003c/a> that the county’s director of public health did think that some spread was due to the protesting without adequate physical distancing or wearing a mask. I wanted to know if it’s possible to definitively make these conclusions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.7\">The epidemiologists I interviewed prescribed caution, for a number of reasons.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.8\">First, it’s hard to isolate an event in a vacuum. “It’s not like there were protests and nothing else happened — they happened shortly after states started reopening, and just after Memorial Day,” Fox said. How would you untangle if an increase in cases was due to reopening activities or protests, if you didn’t know the identities of people who got sick in ensuing weeks and the history of their movements? Contact tracing case studies might be able to answer these questions, but for a layperson, this would be impossible to discern by just looking at case counts and a timeline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.0\">Furthermore, many states have had testing backlogs, meaning that the cases being reported today belong to people who were swabbed more than a week ago and who got infected even before that. “Are we even seeing it in the numbers yet? That could be contested,” Majumder said. “That’s a piece of this that has been very frustrating. For any analysis to be done, you’d need to know not the national backlog in testing, but what is the backlog for your locality.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.1\">Majumder and her team of researchers are now trying to analyze whether protests in which people were doused with tear gas and pepper spray led to more transmission than protests in which such tactics weren’t deployed. That analysis is even more complicated and best left to the professionals.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.2\">When testing any hypothesis, Gu encouraged cultivating a neutral perspective. “Watch out for selection bias, which is when you gravitate towards data that matches your belief and you ignore data that goes against your belief,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.3\">Fox similarly cautioned to be on the watch for “extraordinary claims.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.4\">“If you’re reading a blog post that sounds very scientific and credible, but everything lines up perfectly, then something’s wrong,” he said. “The world doesn’t work that way. The world never fits a perfect pattern. You should expect things to diverge.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Take a Deep Breath and Try to Look at the Big Picture\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.5\">I’ve noticed that some folks like to nitpick about specific numbers, with an argument along the lines of, “Well, here’s a problem with this statistic, \u003cem>and that’s why you can’t trust any of these numbers and this is all a vast conspiracy!”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.6\">For instance, more than one person has suggested to me that people who have tested positive may be getting retested multiple times, and thus are getting double- or even triple-counted, vastly inflating the number of coronavirus cases. There have also been multiple debates about death counts, with people proffering arguments for why they are either overcounted or undercounted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.7\">To address the concern about double-counting coronavirus cases, I checked with some public health officials, who said that should not be happening, because health departments receive patients’ details, such as names and contact information (which is used for contact tracing work), and they do their best to weed out duplicates when reporting numbers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.8\">“In some cases, could it happen? Sure, particularly if the data doesn’t get entered correctly and they misspell the name or reverse the first or last name,” said Dr. Rex Archer, director of the Kansas City Health Department. “But is it a huge percentage? No. It’s nowhere near the number of people who are positive and untested.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.9\">The thing is, you can always make arguments for why the data isn’t perfect. But that doesn’t automatically mean that the numbers can’t be trusted. This is why I like to step back, wait and see how the trends are going and look for confirmation — then I don’t let myself get distracted by the people in my inbox arguing that a few cases of double counting mean all the numbers are fraudulent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.9\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967530\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"410\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM.jpg 820w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM-800x400.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM-160x80.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM-768x384.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.0\">Taking this big picture approach can help us get above the fog of confusion when politicians come along and declare things like “cases are only going up because we’re testing more.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.1\">ProPublica has dedicated \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-doesnt-support-trumps-misleading-testing-claims\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a whole post to breaking down that claim in detail\u003c/a>, but let me briefly tackle that once more, because it keeps coming back and I think it’s worth addressing one more time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.2\">If the virus was not spreading and, say, you tested twice as many people, then you shouldn’t find double the number of cases. In fact, if the virus was well under control and you tested twice as many people, you should find far less than double the number of cases, and the positivity rate should decrease over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.3\">But that is not what has happened. From the second week of June to the first full week of July, while the average number of tests per day went up by 41%, the average number of positive cases per day nearly tripled, and the average positivity rate went from 4.4% to 8.5% according to The COVID Tracking Project. That’s a clear sign that it’s not just testing that’s behind the increase in cases. At the same time, in many states where cases are soaring, \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/article/all-the-hospitals-are-full-in-houston-overwhelmed-icus-leave-covid-19-patients-waiting-in-ers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hospitalizations have also surged\u003c/a>, adding further confirmation that we’re not getting the wrong signal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.3\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967531\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1558\" height=\"840\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled.png 1558w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-800x431.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-1020x550.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-160x86.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-768x414.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-1536x828.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1558px) 100vw, 1558px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Find Trusted Sources\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.0\">If you’ve been finding all the numbers and charts dizzying, that’s very understandable. It’s not really fair to ask people to research and fact check every single thing that they’re told (unless you’re a reporter like me, and that’s your job!).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.1\">“I don’t think we need to all know everything,” Majumder pointed out to me, after I asked her for tips for the public on how to read coronavirus statistics. “As a society, we should be able to rely on trusted sources to help us make better decisions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.2\">But how do you figure out who’s a trusted source? I liked the following advice from Andy Slavitt, former head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services during the Obama administration, which he \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1281014325726019585?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">shared on Twitter\u003c/a> recently. He said to look for people who say “we don’t know” a lot, who give the source for their data and the type of study and who acknowledge their biases and experience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.3\">“Even then they will be wrong on occasion & to keep your trust they should acknowledge it,” he added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What the Numbers Show Us Today\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.4\">One last thought: Let’s be clear about what the numbers reveal to us about the state of America today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.5\">Even if the data is imperfect, when you zoom out enough, you can see the following trends pretty clearly. Since the middle of June, \u003cstrong>daily cases and hospitalizations have been rising\u003c/strong> in tandem. Since the beginning of July, \u003cstrong>daily deaths have also stopped falling\u003c/strong> (remember, they lag cases) and reversed course.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.6\">I fear that our eyes have glazed over with so many numbers being thrown around, that we’ve forgotten this: \u003cstrong>Every day, hundreds of Americans are dying from COVID-19\u003c/strong>. Some days, the number of recorded deaths has reached more than 1,000. Yes, the number recorded every day is not absolutely precise — that’s impossible — but the order of magnitude can’t be lost on us. It’s hundreds a day.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.7\">And \u003cstrong>there are now\u003c/strong> \u003cstrong>tens of thousands of new infections every day\u003c/strong>. The last time fewer than 10,000 new cases were recorded on a single day was in March. The recorded number is now above 50,000 a day. This past week, it crossed 70,000 on Thursday and Friday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.8\">The positivity rate nationwide fell steadily for months, as more testing became available. It went under 5% briefly in late May and early June, and it has since climbed back up into the high single digits. In many states, it’s now in the double digits. That means \u003cstrong>we are not testing enough\u003c/strong>, and in many states, we are blind to the true extent of who is sick and where the cases are.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.9\">\u003cstrong>The bottom line: We don’t have the pandemic under control.\u003c/strong> My hope is that this country’s leaders stop squabbling over specific numbers and using partial trends to tell their own narratives. Instead, let’s focus on the takeaway — there’s a lot of work to do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"title": "How to Make Sense of the Dizzying Array of COVID-19 Stats | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was originally published by \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/article/how-to-understand-covid-19-numbers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ProPublica.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"1.0\">It’s the middle of the summer, and the coronavirus has not gone away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"1.1\">When the pandemic first began, some had hoped that there’d be a lull during the summer, with the heat knocking the virus into submission, but it has continued its march across America, with outbreaks flaring across the southern and southwestern states. Arguments have also become part of the daily discourse, with people debating over case counts and death tolls, how the trends should be interpreted and whether the reported numbers can even be trusted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.0\">I’ve watched so many reporters, both at ProPublica and at other outlets, do their best to \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-doesnt-support-trumps-misleading-testing-claims\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">debunk myths\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/why-covid-death-rate-down/613945/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">demystify confusing trends\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.houstonchronicle.com/coronavirus/article/coronavirus-numbers-FAQ-pandemic-houston-chronicle-15350054.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">answer the public’s questions\u003c/a>. It is, frankly, exhausting, especially when the same arguments keep coming up again and again. I’m also concerned to see not just laypeople, but local and national leaders, using data out of context to justify their own narratives. At the same time, I see members of the public who are sincerely confused, trying to find a way through all the numbers and charts being thrown around, asking: “How concerned should I be right now? How bad are things, really?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.1\">So I wanted to step back and, with my colleague Ash Ngu, walk you through some common coronavirus metrics and explain how to interpret them. I hope this will leave you better equipped to assess claims with appropriate skepticism, filter out the garbage and find the real signal amid the noise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/newsletters/the-big-story?source=www.propublica.org&placement=top-note®ion=national\">ProPublica’s biggest stories\u003c/a> as soon as they’re published.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Case Counts Won’t Give You the Full Picture\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.2\">The first thing I asked experts was: What metric would you recommend I track if I wanted to understand what was going on in my state?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.3\">Both Matthew Fox, professor of epidemiology and global health at Boston University, and Youyang Gu, a data scientist best known for his COVID-19 \u003ca href=\"https://covid19-projections.com/about/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prediction models\u003c/a>, advised looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.4\">“Cases going up or down tells you a fair bit about what’s going on at the moment in terms of transmission of the virus — but it’s only valid if we’re testing enough people,” Fox said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"3.5\">When there aren’t enough tests available, as was the case in New York in March, the number of cases reported will be an undercount, perhaps by a lot. That’s where case positivity rates come in: that measures the percentage of total tests conducted that are coming back positive. It helps you get a sense of how much testing is being done overall in a region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"5.0\">“WHO \u003ca href=\"https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">guidelines\u003c/a> say we want that to be below 5%,” Fox noted. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases. When almost all of the tests come back negative, on the other hand, it’s a good indicator that a locality has enough tests available for everyone who wants one, and public health officials have an accurate picture of all the infections, Fox said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"5.1\">He gave the example of Massachusetts, where he lives. Currently, daily positive case counts have been steadily falling for the past three months. “The positivity rate is now below 2%, so I feel confident in saying that we know what’s going on, and it’s not that we’re not doing enough testing and we’re missing a lot of positive cases.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"5.2\">On the flip side, any state where the positivity rate is higher than 10% is “really going to worry me,” Fox said. “That tells me that we’re probably missing a fair number of cases, and you’re not doing enough testing to see what’s going on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"5.3\">Fox noted that some states in the Sun Belt, such as Arizona and Florida, have recently had very high positivity rates, even above 20%. “That means we don’t have full visibility.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967524\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.34-PM.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"444\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.34-PM.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.34-PM-160x93.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"7.0\">Deaths are also an important metric, because this is what most people care about when it comes to the virus’s ultimate impact, Gu said. “There are instances where you have clusters of infections but they’re mostly in young people, so you see a spike in cases, but not in deaths, because they’re all low-risk individuals — but if they were all to transmit it to their parents or older, high-risk individuals, or if the virus started going around long-term care homes, that’d be a high cause for concern.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"7.1\">Computational epidemiologist Maimuna Majumder also recommends tracking deaths. Even though deaths lag behind new cases, typically by three weeks to a month, “it’s a good indicator for just how serious of a burden this pandemic is causing, not only on our health care system, but also on the general public’s mental health and well-being.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"7.2\">Hospitalization data is another way to track the impact of the pandemic that has less of a lag than reported deaths. After the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services told hospitals this month to stop reporting data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and report directly to HHS instead, some of these numbers have \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1284967553056436225?s=20\">become more erratic\u003c/a>, according to \u003ca href=\"https://covidtracking.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The COVID Tracking Project\u003c/a>. Currently, all the states except for Hawaii and Kansas are reporting COVID-19 hospitalization data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Don’t Want to Be Wrong? Wait a Beat\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"7.3\">One of the easiest ways to be wrong when looking at the numbers is to focus on too small of a time frame. Look at case numbers on any given Sunday, and you might think that cases are falling, but you’d be fooled. Since some local labs and county health departments don’t report data on weekends, there’s a dip in numbers every Sunday and Monday, and then a corresponding surge on Tuesdays.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967527\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.35-PM.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"421\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.35-PM.jpg 781w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.35-PM-160x86.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.35-PM-768x414.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 781px) 100vw, 781px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.0\">To make sure you don’t get misled, it’s better to look at what’s called the rolling seven-day average, which takes each day’s number and averages it with the six days before it. Many trackers provide this figure to smooth out the data. Also, wait to see if the trend holds. It’s kind of like the stock market; it’s unhelpful to to obsess over daily swings. The experts I interviewed suggested waiting one, two or even three weeks to make sure that any trends you think you’ve spotted bear out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.1\">Let’s look at a specific claim to see how watching and waiting can make a difference in getting the whole story.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.2\">Over the past few weeks, President Donald Trump has emphasized that even while coronavirus cases have been rising in the U.S., that’s not a cause for concern because he insists the mortality rate is low. On Sunday, when Fox News host Chris Wallace \u003ca href=\"https://www.foxnews.com/politics/transcript-fox-news-sunday-interview-with-president-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">asked\u003c/a> him to address the fact that the U.S. had reached 900 coronavirus deaths on a single day, Trump responded: “I heard we had the best mortality rate. Number, number one low mortality rate.” This is untrue: the U.S. was about in the middle of the pack of 20 countries \u003ca href=\"https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">analyzed\u003c/a> by Johns Hopkins University on July 16.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.3\">Setting aside the hyperbole, it is true that the case fatality rate (i.e., the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed positive cases) has been gradually falling even as the daily case counts have soared.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.4\">So what’s going on there? Does this mean that the coronavirus is becoming less deadly?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.5\">Let’s look a little closer. We’ve known from early in the pandemic — even from the data coming out of China — that this coronavirus is less deadly to younger people and more deadly to older people. We’ve also come to learn that many people, \u003ca href=\"https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">as many as 40%\u003c/a>, infected with the coronavirus do not show any symptoms or have such mild symptoms that it would never have occurred to them that they could have COVID-19. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that if we have more testing capacity than early on in the pandemic and are now capturing younger people and more asymptomatic patients, that the case fatality rate would be lower than if the population that’s being tested is mainly older and sicker. That’s what’s been happening recently. Check out Florida: The \u003ca href=\"https://github.com/mbevand/florida-covid19-line-list-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">median age of residents\u003c/a> testing positive fell into the 30s in June from the 60s in March.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.6\">But the other critical thing to remember is that \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/trump-loves-the-low-daily-death-rate-for-covid-it-wont-last/2020/07/17/1cdfe752-c79d-11ea-b037-f9711f89ee46_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">deaths lag behind cases\u003c/a>. A patient may get tested once they have symptoms but take a while to get sick enough to need to go to the hospital. With COVID-19, many patients who unfortunately don’t survive are often in the ICU for many weeks before they die. Then there may be a few more days’ delay before the death certificate is recorded.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"9.7\">The delay between cases rising and deaths can be hard to see at a national level, because many states have different story arcs going on: Right now, New York is coming down from its big outbreak, while Texas’ big surge is still on the upswing. That muddles the national picture. But when we zoom in to one state, you can see the picture more clearly. Let’s take Florida as an example.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967528\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.37-PM.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"438\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.37-PM.jpg 773w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.37-PM-160x91.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.37-PM-768x435.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 773px) 100vw, 773px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.0\">There are other factors at play to consider as well when tackling a broad claim like, “Is COVID less deadly now?” such as hospital capacity. Dr. Michael Peters, an associate professor of medicine and pulmonologist at UC San Francisco, has treated patients both in San Francisco and in New York City. He flew to New York and worked at a hospital in Queens to help support the overwhelmed doctors during the peak of the city’s outbreak.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.1\">“It’s obviously the same disease, but we haven’t ever been overloaded at UCSF. There’s data that shows, and my personal experience suggests, that when systems are overloaded, patients do worse,” he said. “If you take the same 50-year-old man and put him in San Francisco in March versus New York in March, he’d do differently — it’s just that the capacity to take care of people was limited and impaired.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.2\">Peters explained that a lot of this has to do with the hands-on nature of care needed for the sickest of patients in ICUs. “Ventilators need to be watched and monitored to make sure you’re not getting too much air or too little air, because if you have too much air, that can cause injury to your lungs, so the doctors and nurses are constantly evaluating you.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.3\">With each passing month, researchers are learning more about how to best treat the sickest patients. While there still is no cure, there is now some evidence for how to use treatments such as remdesivir and dexamethasone, said Dr. Abraar Karan, an internal medicine doctor at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, so arguably, your chances of survival are better now than in February. “The longer you wait to be infected, the less chance you have of being part of an experiment, and the better chance you have to be receiving the outcome of a well-done experiment,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.4\">None of this means that the virus itself has become less deadly, noted Boston University’s Fox, so one has to be careful not to leap to the conclusion that just because the case fatality rate has been falling, that means that it’s safe for the elderly to mingle in crowds again.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>There Are Some Things We Can’t Know for Certain\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.5\">Another question that’s been on my mind is whether a layperson can see the effects of specific events on transmission. For example, have protests in my state driven an increase in COVID-19 cases or not?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.6\">I’ve already seen people on my social media feeds ardently declaring that protests either did or did not lead to more cases, and therefore this means that masks either do or do not work. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti first \u003ca href=\"https://www.foxla.com/news/mayor-garcetti-says-no-conclusive-evidence-showing-protests-contributed-to-rise-in-covid-19-cases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said\u003c/a> there was no “conclusive evidence” that the protests led to a rise in coronavirus cases, then a few days later he \u003ca href=\"https://www.foxnews.com/us/la-protests-linked-to-covid-spike-garcetti\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said\u003c/a> that the county’s director of public health did think that some spread was due to the protesting without adequate physical distancing or wearing a mask. I wanted to know if it’s possible to definitively make these conclusions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.7\">The epidemiologists I interviewed prescribed caution, for a number of reasons.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"11.8\">First, it’s hard to isolate an event in a vacuum. “It’s not like there were protests and nothing else happened — they happened shortly after states started reopening, and just after Memorial Day,” Fox said. How would you untangle if an increase in cases was due to reopening activities or protests, if you didn’t know the identities of people who got sick in ensuing weeks and the history of their movements? Contact tracing case studies might be able to answer these questions, but for a layperson, this would be impossible to discern by just looking at case counts and a timeline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.0\">Furthermore, many states have had testing backlogs, meaning that the cases being reported today belong to people who were swabbed more than a week ago and who got infected even before that. “Are we even seeing it in the numbers yet? That could be contested,” Majumder said. “That’s a piece of this that has been very frustrating. For any analysis to be done, you’d need to know not the national backlog in testing, but what is the backlog for your locality.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.1\">Majumder and her team of researchers are now trying to analyze whether protests in which people were doused with tear gas and pepper spray led to more transmission than protests in which such tactics weren’t deployed. That analysis is even more complicated and best left to the professionals.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.2\">When testing any hypothesis, Gu encouraged cultivating a neutral perspective. “Watch out for selection bias, which is when you gravitate towards data that matches your belief and you ignore data that goes against your belief,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.3\">Fox similarly cautioned to be on the watch for “extraordinary claims.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.4\">“If you’re reading a blog post that sounds very scientific and credible, but everything lines up perfectly, then something’s wrong,” he said. “The world doesn’t work that way. The world never fits a perfect pattern. You should expect things to diverge.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Take a Deep Breath and Try to Look at the Big Picture\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.5\">I’ve noticed that some folks like to nitpick about specific numbers, with an argument along the lines of, “Well, here’s a problem with this statistic, \u003cem>and that’s why you can’t trust any of these numbers and this is all a vast conspiracy!”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.6\">For instance, more than one person has suggested to me that people who have tested positive may be getting retested multiple times, and thus are getting double- or even triple-counted, vastly inflating the number of coronavirus cases. There have also been multiple debates about death counts, with people proffering arguments for why they are either overcounted or undercounted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.7\">To address the concern about double-counting coronavirus cases, I checked with some public health officials, who said that should not be happening, because health departments receive patients’ details, such as names and contact information (which is used for contact tracing work), and they do their best to weed out duplicates when reporting numbers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.8\">“In some cases, could it happen? Sure, particularly if the data doesn’t get entered correctly and they misspell the name or reverse the first or last name,” said Dr. Rex Archer, director of the Kansas City Health Department. “But is it a huge percentage? No. It’s nowhere near the number of people who are positive and untested.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.9\">The thing is, you can always make arguments for why the data isn’t perfect. But that doesn’t automatically mean that the numbers can’t be trusted. This is why I like to step back, wait and see how the trends are going and look for confirmation — then I don’t let myself get distracted by the people in my inbox arguing that a few cases of double counting mean all the numbers are fraudulent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"13.9\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967530\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"410\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM.jpg 820w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM-800x400.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM-160x80.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Image-7-22-20-at-4.38-PM-768x384.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.0\">Taking this big picture approach can help us get above the fog of confusion when politicians come along and declare things like “cases are only going up because we’re testing more.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.1\">ProPublica has dedicated \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-doesnt-support-trumps-misleading-testing-claims\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a whole post to breaking down that claim in detail\u003c/a>, but let me briefly tackle that once more, because it keeps coming back and I think it’s worth addressing one more time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.2\">If the virus was not spreading and, say, you tested twice as many people, then you shouldn’t find double the number of cases. In fact, if the virus was well under control and you tested twice as many people, you should find far less than double the number of cases, and the positivity rate should decrease over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.3\">But that is not what has happened. From the second week of June to the first full week of July, while the average number of tests per day went up by 41%, the average number of positive cases per day nearly tripled, and the average positivity rate went from 4.4% to 8.5% according to The COVID Tracking Project. That’s a clear sign that it’s not just testing that’s behind the increase in cases. At the same time, in many states where cases are soaring, \u003ca href=\"https://www.propublica.org/article/all-the-hospitals-are-full-in-houston-overwhelmed-icus-leave-covid-19-patients-waiting-in-ers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hospitalizations have also surged\u003c/a>, adding further confirmation that we’re not getting the wrong signal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"15.3\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967531\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1558\" height=\"840\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled.png 1558w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-800x431.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-1020x550.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-160x86.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-768x414.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/Untitled-1536x828.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1558px) 100vw, 1558px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Find Trusted Sources\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.0\">If you’ve been finding all the numbers and charts dizzying, that’s very understandable. It’s not really fair to ask people to research and fact check every single thing that they’re told (unless you’re a reporter like me, and that’s your job!).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.1\">“I don’t think we need to all know everything,” Majumder pointed out to me, after I asked her for tips for the public on how to read coronavirus statistics. “As a society, we should be able to rely on trusted sources to help us make better decisions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.2\">But how do you figure out who’s a trusted source? I liked the following advice from Andy Slavitt, former head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services during the Obama administration, which he \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1281014325726019585?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">shared on Twitter\u003c/a> recently. He said to look for people who say “we don’t know” a lot, who give the source for their data and the type of study and who acknowledge their biases and experience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.3\">“Even then they will be wrong on occasion & to keep your trust they should acknowledge it,” he added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What the Numbers Show Us Today\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.4\">One last thought: Let’s be clear about what the numbers reveal to us about the state of America today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.5\">Even if the data is imperfect, when you zoom out enough, you can see the following trends pretty clearly. Since the middle of June, \u003cstrong>daily cases and hospitalizations have been rising\u003c/strong> in tandem. Since the beginning of July, \u003cstrong>daily deaths have also stopped falling\u003c/strong> (remember, they lag cases) and reversed course.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.6\">I fear that our eyes have glazed over with so many numbers being thrown around, that we’ve forgotten this: \u003cstrong>Every day, hundreds of Americans are dying from COVID-19\u003c/strong>. Some days, the number of recorded deaths has reached more than 1,000. Yes, the number recorded every day is not absolutely precise — that’s impossible — but the order of magnitude can’t be lost on us. It’s hundreds a day.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.7\">And \u003cstrong>there are now\u003c/strong> \u003cstrong>tens of thousands of new infections every day\u003c/strong>. The last time fewer than 10,000 new cases were recorded on a single day was in March. The recorded number is now above 50,000 a day. This past week, it crossed 70,000 on Thursday and Friday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.8\">The positivity rate nationwide fell steadily for months, as more testing became available. It went under 5% briefly in late May and early June, and it has since climbed back up into the high single digits. In many states, it’s now in the double digits. That means \u003cstrong>we are not testing enough\u003c/strong>, and in many states, we are blind to the true extent of who is sick and where the cases are.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-pp-blocktype=\"copy\" data-pp-id=\"17.9\">\u003cstrong>The bottom line: We don’t have the pandemic under control.\u003c/strong> My hope is that this country’s leaders stop squabbling over specific numbers and using partial trends to tell their own narratives. Instead, let’s focus on the takeaway — there’s a lot of work to do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Remdesivir, the intravenous antiviral drug made by Foster City’s Gilead Sciences, is currently the only medicine shown \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1963229/government-study-shows-patients-responding-to-coronavirus-treatment-drugmaker-gilead-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">in trials\u003c/a> to effectively treat hospitalized COVID-19 patients, reducing the median length of hospital stays by about four days. But some Bay Area hospitals say the supply is barely keeping up with demand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dr. Lukejohn Day, chief medical officer at Zuckerberg San Fransisco General Hospital (ZSFG) says the hospital ran out of remdesivir last week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not like some medications where we have them in stock or if we run out the stock we can order it and it could be FedEx’d overnight or within two days,” Day said. “We don’t have that type of access with this drug.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size=\"medium\" align=”right” citation=\"Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, UCSF\"]‘Every morning I wake up with palpitations because I don’t know if we’re going to have enough.’[/pullquote]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Instead, Day says local hospitals report their COVID-19 cases to the federal Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and are notified about every two weeks how much remdesivir they can purchase through AmerisourceBergen, a third-party distributor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In late June, Gilead \u003ca href=\"https://www.phe.gov/emergency/events/COVID19/investigation-MCM/Pages/factsheet.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">signed an agreement\u003c/a> with HHS to provide roughly half-a-million remdesivir treatment courses for distribution to U.S. hospitals over the next three months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Day says ZSFG is expecting another shipment soon and hasn’t, as of yet, had to deny hospitalized patients who meet the requirements for treatment with the drug.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If cases were to surge up again,” Day said, “it could be potentially harmful.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scarcity of remdesivir, Day says, is hitting other parts of the state even harder. “I definitely know that there is a shortage out there across several counties within California,” he said. “We’ve given some to other counties, but have not been able to give as much as we would like.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco, says the hospital is also maxing out its allotment of remdesivir.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every morning I wake up with palpitations because I don’t know if we’re going to have enough,” he said\u003cem>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At UCSF and other San Francisco hospitals, remdesivir is currently reserved for patients who require supplemental oxygen or a ventilator.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now we have enough, but barely,” Chin-Hong said.\u003cem>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>COVID-19 hospitalizations at UCSF have tripled over the past month, according to Chin-Hong. The surge, he says, has prompted his team to start asking hard questions about how to prioritize the drug if the trend continues.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Say three people needed it and we only had enough for one, how do you make that decision?” Chin-Hong said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the ideal world,” he added, “probably 100 percent of [hospitalized] people would be on remdesivir.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Remdesivir, the intravenous antiviral drug made by Foster City’s Gilead Sciences, is currently the only medicine shown \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1963229/government-study-shows-patients-responding-to-coronavirus-treatment-drugmaker-gilead-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">in trials\u003c/a> to effectively treat hospitalized COVID-19 patients, reducing the median length of hospital stays by about four days. But some Bay Area hospitals say the supply is barely keeping up with demand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dr. Lukejohn Day, chief medical officer at Zuckerberg San Fransisco General Hospital (ZSFG) says the hospital ran out of remdesivir last week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not like some medications where we have them in stock or if we run out the stock we can order it and it could be FedEx’d overnight or within two days,” Day said. “We don’t have that type of access with this drug.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Instead, Day says local hospitals report their COVID-19 cases to the federal Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and are notified about every two weeks how much remdesivir they can purchase through AmerisourceBergen, a third-party distributor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In late June, Gilead \u003ca href=\"https://www.phe.gov/emergency/events/COVID19/investigation-MCM/Pages/factsheet.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">signed an agreement\u003c/a> with HHS to provide roughly half-a-million remdesivir treatment courses for distribution to U.S. hospitals over the next three months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Day says ZSFG is expecting another shipment soon and hasn’t, as of yet, had to deny hospitalized patients who meet the requirements for treatment with the drug.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If cases were to surge up again,” Day said, “it could be potentially harmful.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scarcity of remdesivir, Day says, is hitting other parts of the state even harder. “I definitely know that there is a shortage out there across several counties within California,” he said. “We’ve given some to other counties, but have not been able to give as much as we would like.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco, says the hospital is also maxing out its allotment of remdesivir.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every morning I wake up with palpitations because I don’t know if we’re going to have enough,” he said\u003cem>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At UCSF and other San Francisco hospitals, remdesivir is currently reserved for patients who require supplemental oxygen or a ventilator.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now we have enough, but barely,” Chin-Hong said.\u003cem>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>COVID-19 hospitalizations at UCSF have tripled over the past month, according to Chin-Hong. The surge, he says, has prompted his team to start asking hard questions about how to prioritize the drug if the trend continues.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Say three people needed it and we only had enough for one, how do you make that decision?” Chin-Hong said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the ideal world,” he added, “probably 100 percent of [hospitalized] people would be on remdesivir.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "This Public Health Office Worker Wanted to Work From Home and Was Rejected. 2 Months Later She Was Dead From COVID-19",
"headTitle": "This Public Health Office Worker Wanted to Work From Home and Was Rejected. 2 Months Later She Was Dead From COVID-19 | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>As a veteran public health worker, Chantee Mack knew the coronavirus could kill. She already faced health challenges and didn’t want to take any chances during the pandemic. So she asked — twice — for permission to work from home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She was deemed essential and told no.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Eight weeks later, she was dead.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack, a 44-year-old disease intervention specialist, lost her life this spring after COVID-19 struck the \u003ca href=\"https://www.princegeorgescountymd.gov/1588/Health-Services\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Prince George’s County Health Department\u003c/a> in the Maryland suburbs of Washington, D.C. The coronavirus infected at least 20 department employees, some of whom had attended a staff meeting where they sat close together, union leaders said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The spread of COVID-19 underscores the stark dangers facing the nation’s public health army — the very people charged with leading the pandemic response.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re the ones called to the fire to do this during an emergency. We are essential. People don’t look at us as first responders, but we are,” said Mack’s co-worker Rhonda Wallace, leader of a local branch of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees who, like other union members, stressed she wasn’t speaking for the health department.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such outbreaks are a grim threat facing overburdened and underfunded health departments across the nation. An \u003ca href=\"https://khn.org/news/tag/underfunded-and-under-threat/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ongoing Associated Press-KHN investigation\u003c/a> found that public health spending per person fell 16% from 2010 to 2018 nationally when adjusted for inflation — and 17% in Maryland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Public health workers in other states, including Ohio, Oregon, California and Georgia, have also contracted the coronavirus, and in some cases even worked throughout their sickness to address the ongoing pandemic. But the Prince George’s department outbreak was among the worst — and occurred as workers dealt with a community caseload that eventually reached over 21,000, more than any other county in Maryland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Department leaders declined to answer specific questions, citing health privacy laws. Instead, county health officer Dr. Ernest Carter said in a statement they were heartbroken over the loss of a valued employee who had worked there since 2001.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“She was a dedicated public health professional who made a difference in the health and well-being of Prince Georgians,” the statement said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the pandemic’s early days, department leaders said, they followed a countywide policy on telework devised in 2016, not one developed for the coronavirus threat. At the same time, some employees said, the department failed to provide enough personal protective equipment to keep workers and those they encountered safe — all this in an agency helping shepherd the community through the worst health crisis in a century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Prince George’s officials did not respond to questions about how the employee illnesses affected the department’s operations. But Dr. Sandra Elizabeth Ford, district health director for Georgia’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.dekalbhealth.net/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">DeKalb County Board of Health\u003c/a>, said her department, which has lost funding and staff over the years, had to shorten hours when four workers contracted COVID-19 and others had to quarantine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ford, president-elect of the board of directors for the \u003ca href=\"https://www.naccho.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">National Association of County and City Health Officials\u003c/a>, said the need to protect employees and the community weighs heavily on the nation’s health department directors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s just so many difficult decisions,” she said. “We’re looked at for guidance by everyone — the business community, the schools. We’re learning as we go along.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Stalked by a Virus\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack worked in the county’s sexually transmitted diseases program, where one of her jobs was to tell people the results of their tests for infections like HIV, gonorrhea and syphilis. Though she didn’t work on COVID-19, she was among the 100 staffers deemed essential during the pandemic out of the more than 500-employee health department.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In mid-March, the county executive sent an email saying employees should be evaluated to see if they should telework.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Within days, Mack asked to work from home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So did her colleague Candace Young, another disease intervention specialist and union member who was nine months pregnant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young said management rejected her request to telework for five days a week just before her maternity leave began, but approved three days a week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, both of Mack’s requests were supported by her immediate supervisors but rejected by upper management, according to union documents. Her brother, Roland Mack, 38, said he can’t understand why, since her duties involved mostly paperwork, computer work and phone calls; back problems made it too difficult for her to work face-to-face with clients.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The department’s telework policy considers, among other things, an employee’s responsibilities and work history. In a managers’ conference call, recounted in an internal union document obtained by KHN, Diane Young, the associate director, said all family health services’ workers were essential. Only those 65 or older, those with an “altered” immune system or with small children, would be eligible to work from home. Decisions would be made case by case.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack had a key COVID-19 risk factor, obesity. But even after the intervention of Anthony Smith, president of her union chapter, management refused to approve Mack’s request for telework.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The decision put Mack in the office on Candace Young’s last day there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young, 31, now suspects she was unknowingly spreading the coronavirus. She said she has “no doubt in my mind” she contracted it on the job from a client or co-worker; work was the only place she came into contact with anyone outside her household. Young even avoided the grocery store because her pregnancy was high-risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the time, the department “didn’t take any mitigation measures in terms of limiting contact between employees,” Smith said. “They were very spotty with their PPE.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That day — Thursday, March 19 — proved fateful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan announced he was \u003ca href=\"https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Amending-Gatherings.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ordering\u003c/a> government buildings to post recommendations about social distancing, and he banned social and community gatherings of more than 10 people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young, who like the other specialists worked in a cubicle, mingled with co-workers as usual. She, Mack and some 20 others were called to a routine staff meeting, where they sat in a U shape. Someone mentioned the paradox of recommending social distancing in the community while sitting much less than 6 feet apart, Young recalled.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Later, union documents show, nine of 19 disease intervention specialists in family health services, at least some of whom attended the meeting, tested positive for COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Virus Takes Its Toll\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young noticed mild symptoms the next day and felt worse over the weekend. She said she notified her supervisors on March 24. Two days later, she became the first in the program to be diagnosed with COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A day after her diagnosis, her colleagues received texts and calls saying they had been exposed to an employee who tested positive, a union report says. All of them would be quarantined at home, including Mack. Young began recovering only after giving birth by cesarean section on April 2. Her 5-pound, 9-ounce daughter tested negative.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack, who knew about Young’s illness, began feeling sick and got tested for the coronavirus in early April.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On April 4, in a department memo obtained by KHN, health officer Carter said additional staff members had contracted the virus or reported illness.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack was one of at least four employees who union officials say were hospitalized. She entered Adventist HealthCare White Oak Medical Center in mid-April. She stayed on a ventilator for four weeks. She needed a blood transfusion. Her kidneys failed. She developed a brain bleed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On May 11, Mack’s heart stopped, and she slipped away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“She was a good soul — strong,” said her brother. “It’s so messed up.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Terrible Price\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Three employees who worked at Oregon’s \u003ca href=\"https://multco.us/health\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Multnomah County Health Department\u003c/a> also contracted the virus. In Ohio, it struck workers at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.lucascountyhealth.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Toledo-Lucas County Health Department\u003c/a>, forcing the community’s main COVID-19 response team into quarantine. Some of the staffers continued to work through their illnesses while in isolation, though, because the county’s caseload was still growing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In California’s Coachella Valley, Fernando Fregoso, 52, died of COVID-19 and three colleagues in the local mosquito control district later tested positive. The district — which had already put in place safety measures such as social distancing — shut down for two weeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the wake of Mack’s death in Prince George’s, union leaders said the health department has stepped up its workplace COVID-19 protections, as have other departments. By mid-June, employees in Mack’s division who had been teleworking had returned to working some days in the office.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The health and safety of our employees is our top priority,” Carter’s statement said, adding that all employees must wear protective equipment at work, stay 6 feet from others and wash their hands. Those working with clients must take even more precautions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I do believe we’re making progress,” Smith said. “But we’ve paid the price.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack’s brother said his family has been devastated.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I feel alone now that she’s gone,” he said. “From the time I was 5 years old, she was taking care of me like a second mom.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before Mack died, her brother said, she’d begun to talk about moving on from the health department. She wanted to make good on a long-held dream — following their late mother, the woman she considered her best friend, into nursing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Instead, the two are buried side by side.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KHN Midwest correspondent Lauren Weber, senior correspondent Anna Maria Barry-Jester and data reporter Hannah Recht contributed to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story is a collaboration between The Associated Press and \u003ca href=\"https://khn.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">KHN\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://ssl.google-analytics.com/collect?v=1&t=event&ec=Republish&tid=UA-53070700-2&z=1595435803903&cid=bfc61675-5e85-493f-b7a1-9c743fe047a0&ea=https%3A%2F%2Fkhn.org%2Fnews%2Fessential-and-in-danger-coronavirus-sickens-even-kills-public-health-workers%2F&el=Essential%20and%20in%20Danger%3A%20Coronavirus%20Sickens%2C%20Even%20Kills%20Public%20Health%20Workers\">\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re the ones called to the fire to do this during an emergency. We are essential. People don’t look at us as first responders, but we are,” said Mack’s co-worker Rhonda Wallace, leader of a local branch of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees who, like other union members, stressed she wasn’t speaking for the health department.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such outbreaks are a grim threat facing overburdened and underfunded health departments across the nation. An \u003ca href=\"https://khn.org/news/tag/underfunded-and-under-threat/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ongoing Associated Press-KHN investigation\u003c/a> found that public health spending per person fell 16% from 2010 to 2018 nationally when adjusted for inflation — and 17% in Maryland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Public health workers in other states, including Ohio, Oregon, California and Georgia, have also contracted the coronavirus, and in some cases even worked throughout their sickness to address the ongoing pandemic. But the Prince George’s department outbreak was among the worst — and occurred as workers dealt with a community caseload that eventually reached over 21,000, more than any other county in Maryland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Department leaders declined to answer specific questions, citing health privacy laws. Instead, county health officer Dr. Ernest Carter said in a statement they were heartbroken over the loss of a valued employee who had worked there since 2001.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“She was a dedicated public health professional who made a difference in the health and well-being of Prince Georgians,” the statement said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the pandemic’s early days, department leaders said, they followed a countywide policy on telework devised in 2016, not one developed for the coronavirus threat. At the same time, some employees said, the department failed to provide enough personal protective equipment to keep workers and those they encountered safe — all this in an agency helping shepherd the community through the worst health crisis in a century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Prince George’s officials did not respond to questions about how the employee illnesses affected the department’s operations. But Dr. Sandra Elizabeth Ford, district health director for Georgia’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.dekalbhealth.net/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">DeKalb County Board of Health\u003c/a>, said her department, which has lost funding and staff over the years, had to shorten hours when four workers contracted COVID-19 and others had to quarantine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ford, president-elect of the board of directors for the \u003ca href=\"https://www.naccho.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">National Association of County and City Health Officials\u003c/a>, said the need to protect employees and the community weighs heavily on the nation’s health department directors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s just so many difficult decisions,” she said. “We’re looked at for guidance by everyone — the business community, the schools. We’re learning as we go along.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Stalked by a Virus\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack worked in the county’s sexually transmitted diseases program, where one of her jobs was to tell people the results of their tests for infections like HIV, gonorrhea and syphilis. Though she didn’t work on COVID-19, she was among the 100 staffers deemed essential during the pandemic out of the more than 500-employee health department.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In mid-March, the county executive sent an email saying employees should be evaluated to see if they should telework.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Within days, Mack asked to work from home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So did her colleague Candace Young, another disease intervention specialist and union member who was nine months pregnant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young said management rejected her request to telework for five days a week just before her maternity leave began, but approved three days a week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, both of Mack’s requests were supported by her immediate supervisors but rejected by upper management, according to union documents. Her brother, Roland Mack, 38, said he can’t understand why, since her duties involved mostly paperwork, computer work and phone calls; back problems made it too difficult for her to work face-to-face with clients.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The department’s telework policy considers, among other things, an employee’s responsibilities and work history. In a managers’ conference call, recounted in an internal union document obtained by KHN, Diane Young, the associate director, said all family health services’ workers were essential. Only those 65 or older, those with an “altered” immune system or with small children, would be eligible to work from home. Decisions would be made case by case.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack had a key COVID-19 risk factor, obesity. But even after the intervention of Anthony Smith, president of her union chapter, management refused to approve Mack’s request for telework.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The decision put Mack in the office on Candace Young’s last day there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young, 31, now suspects she was unknowingly spreading the coronavirus. She said she has “no doubt in my mind” she contracted it on the job from a client or co-worker; work was the only place she came into contact with anyone outside her household. Young even avoided the grocery store because her pregnancy was high-risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the time, the department “didn’t take any mitigation measures in terms of limiting contact between employees,” Smith said. “They were very spotty with their PPE.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That day — Thursday, March 19 — proved fateful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan announced he was \u003ca href=\"https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Amending-Gatherings.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ordering\u003c/a> government buildings to post recommendations about social distancing, and he banned social and community gatherings of more than 10 people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young, who like the other specialists worked in a cubicle, mingled with co-workers as usual. She, Mack and some 20 others were called to a routine staff meeting, where they sat in a U shape. Someone mentioned the paradox of recommending social distancing in the community while sitting much less than 6 feet apart, Young recalled.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Later, union documents show, nine of 19 disease intervention specialists in family health services, at least some of whom attended the meeting, tested positive for COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Virus Takes Its Toll\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young noticed mild symptoms the next day and felt worse over the weekend. She said she notified her supervisors on March 24. Two days later, she became the first in the program to be diagnosed with COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A day after her diagnosis, her colleagues received texts and calls saying they had been exposed to an employee who tested positive, a union report says. All of them would be quarantined at home, including Mack. Young began recovering only after giving birth by cesarean section on April 2. Her 5-pound, 9-ounce daughter tested negative.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack, who knew about Young’s illness, began feeling sick and got tested for the coronavirus in early April.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On April 4, in a department memo obtained by KHN, health officer Carter said additional staff members had contracted the virus or reported illness.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack was one of at least four employees who union officials say were hospitalized. She entered Adventist HealthCare White Oak Medical Center in mid-April. She stayed on a ventilator for four weeks. She needed a blood transfusion. Her kidneys failed. She developed a brain bleed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On May 11, Mack’s heart stopped, and she slipped away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“She was a good soul — strong,” said her brother. “It’s so messed up.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Terrible Price\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Three employees who worked at Oregon’s \u003ca href=\"https://multco.us/health\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Multnomah County Health Department\u003c/a> also contracted the virus. In Ohio, it struck workers at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.lucascountyhealth.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Toledo-Lucas County Health Department\u003c/a>, forcing the community’s main COVID-19 response team into quarantine. Some of the staffers continued to work through their illnesses while in isolation, though, because the county’s caseload was still growing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In California’s Coachella Valley, Fernando Fregoso, 52, died of COVID-19 and three colleagues in the local mosquito control district later tested positive. The district — which had already put in place safety measures such as social distancing — shut down for two weeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the wake of Mack’s death in Prince George’s, union leaders said the health department has stepped up its workplace COVID-19 protections, as have other departments. By mid-June, employees in Mack’s division who had been teleworking had returned to working some days in the office.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The health and safety of our employees is our top priority,” Carter’s statement said, adding that all employees must wear protective equipment at work, stay 6 feet from others and wash their hands. Those working with clients must take even more precautions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I do believe we’re making progress,” Smith said. “But we’ve paid the price.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mack’s brother said his family has been devastated.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I feel alone now that she’s gone,” he said. “From the time I was 5 years old, she was taking care of me like a second mom.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before Mack died, her brother said, she’d begun to talk about moving on from the health department. She wanted to make good on a long-held dream — following their late mother, the woman she considered her best friend, into nursing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Instead, the two are buried side by side.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KHN Midwest correspondent Lauren Weber, senior correspondent Anna Maria Barry-Jester and data reporter Hannah Recht contributed to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story is a collaboration between The Associated Press and \u003ca href=\"https://khn.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">KHN\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated Oct. 27, 2020\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From the beginning of the pandemic, health officials have repeated it like a mantra: Stay 6 feet apart. That guidance is now so embedded in the culture, it’s inspired a wealth of signage, \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/kqedscience/posts/10158203955648050\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">graphics\u003c/a> and even \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d9XjnV2iKA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">songs\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Why keep so distant? Well, the coronavirus is frequently spread through relatively large respiratory droplets emitted when people speak, cough, sneeze, sing and even breathe. Scientists believe these droplets fall to the ground within 6 feet of the person emitting them, so putting more than that amount of space between you and another person creates a buffer zone against viral transmission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But in the last several months, scientists have taken another look at that famous 6-feet rule because of increasing evidence that the virus is airborne.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In July, more than 200 scientists signed an \u003ca href=\"https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa939/5867798?searchresult=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">open letter\u003c/a> to the World Health Organization, asking it to adopt precautions in recognition of the “significant potential” for the virus to spread via smaller respiratory particles that linger in the air. Because they can stick around and circulate, scientists call this aerosol transmission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shortly after that letter, the WHO issued a new \u003ca href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">scientific brief\u003c/a>, acknowledging that transmission from much smaller particles than droplets couldn’t be ruled out and that more research is required about outbreaks in poorly ventilated indoor spaces.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also arrived at this conclusion a couple of months later. In September, it referred on its website to the virus as “airborne,” but soon removed the language, claiming it was posted in error. It then published a less-definitive warning this month, stating “COVID-19 can sometimes be spread by airborne transmission.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So what is really going on here? Let’s break it down…\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What is the difference between droplets and aerosol particles? \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Simply put: size.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The virus particles we send out into the world by coughing, sneezing, talking or breathing come in various proportions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Respiratory droplets, while still very small, are sometimes big enough to be seen and felt when you’re unlucky enough to catch a sneeze in the face.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Aerosol particles, also called microdroplets, are much smaller versions of respiratory droplets: It would take 10 or more to span the width of a human hair.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Unike respiratory droplets, which quickly fall to the ground, aerosols are so small that scientists believe they can linger in the air for \u003ca href=\"https://tinyurl.com/FAQ-aerosols\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">minutes or even hours\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Do scientists really know that aerosol transmission is happening?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Multiple scientists who study airborne transmission of infectious diseases say there is \u003ca href=\"https://tinyurl.com/aerosol-pros-cons\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ample evidence that airborne transmission is occurring\u003c/a>, and no evidence that it’s not.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In my mind there is no question that aerosols are a transmission route, and possibly the most important. I cannot come up with an alternate, plausible explanation for ‘super spreader’ events,” said UC Irvine chemistry professor Ann Marie Carlton, who signed the letter to the WHO.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That is really now the main controversy about airborne transmission: Just how significant is it compared to other modes of transmission?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both the CDC and WHO currently state the dominant path of infection is through respiratory droplets. The WHO also says surfaces play a major role.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other scientists who study indoor air quality and aerosol science have published an open-source document called \u003ca href=\"https://tinyurl.com/FAQ-aerosols\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003cem>FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, arguing that “the aerosol pathway is at least as important” as respiratory droplets and surfaces. “Some of us think that the aerosol pathway is the dominant way of transmission.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a Sept. 30 \u003ca href=\"https://www.wired.com/video/watch/wired25-2020-anthony-fauci-covid-19-pandemic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">interview\u003c/a> with Wired magazine, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said, “I believe pretty confidently” that some aerosol transmission was taking place. But he said just how much is unclear. “It is likely that it is not the major form of transmission,” he said. “That the major form is still that droplet type of transmission from person to person in close contact.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>OK, so what can we do to reduce our risk of catching the virus through aerosols?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A lot of what we are doing to protect ourselves from the spread of the virus through respiratory droplets will protect us from aerosols, too — measures like moving gatherings outside and wearing a mask. When everyone \u003ca href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6498/1422\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">wears a mask\u003c/a>, it can reduce how many droplets, of any size, escape into the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967445\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 400px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1967445\" title=\"V. Altounian/Science\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut-800x1035.jpg\" alt=\"V. Altounian/Science\" width=\"400\" height=\"517\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut-800x1035.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut-160x207.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut-768x993.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut.jpg 981w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">V. Altounian/Science \u003ccite>(Courtesy Kim Prather)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given that indoor environments with poor air circulation are a major concern for potential airborne transmission, scientists recommend that people avoid the following:\u003c/p>\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>Spaces with poor ventilation\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Spaces where you are close to others\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Places where people gather for an extended period of time\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Places where people are talking, singing, yelling or engaging in aerobic exercise\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003cp>You should also:\u003c/p>\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>Wear a mask indoors\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Open windows and doors to improve ventilation\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Commercial properties or buildings should use air filters that bring in outdoor air rather than recirculating it. Buildings with a MERV 13 filter or higher will do a good job of capturing particles that carry the virus\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>At home, use portable HEPA air filters, which are able to filter out particles that carry the coronavirus\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated Oct. 27, 2020\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From the beginning of the pandemic, health officials have repeated it like a mantra: Stay 6 feet apart. That guidance is now so embedded in the culture, it’s inspired a wealth of signage, \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/kqedscience/posts/10158203955648050\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">graphics\u003c/a> and even \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d9XjnV2iKA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">songs\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Why keep so distant? Well, the coronavirus is frequently spread through relatively large respiratory droplets emitted when people speak, cough, sneeze, sing and even breathe. Scientists believe these droplets fall to the ground within 6 feet of the person emitting them, so putting more than that amount of space between you and another person creates a buffer zone against viral transmission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But in the last several months, scientists have taken another look at that famous 6-feet rule because of increasing evidence that the virus is airborne.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In July, more than 200 scientists signed an \u003ca href=\"https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa939/5867798?searchresult=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">open letter\u003c/a> to the World Health Organization, asking it to adopt precautions in recognition of the “significant potential” for the virus to spread via smaller respiratory particles that linger in the air. Because they can stick around and circulate, scientists call this aerosol transmission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shortly after that letter, the WHO issued a new \u003ca href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">scientific brief\u003c/a>, acknowledging that transmission from much smaller particles than droplets couldn’t be ruled out and that more research is required about outbreaks in poorly ventilated indoor spaces.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also arrived at this conclusion a couple of months later. In September, it referred on its website to the virus as “airborne,” but soon removed the language, claiming it was posted in error. It then published a less-definitive warning this month, stating “COVID-19 can sometimes be spread by airborne transmission.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So what is really going on here? Let’s break it down…\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What is the difference between droplets and aerosol particles? \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Simply put: size.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The virus particles we send out into the world by coughing, sneezing, talking or breathing come in various proportions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Respiratory droplets, while still very small, are sometimes big enough to be seen and felt when you’re unlucky enough to catch a sneeze in the face.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Aerosol particles, also called microdroplets, are much smaller versions of respiratory droplets: It would take 10 or more to span the width of a human hair.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Unike respiratory droplets, which quickly fall to the ground, aerosols are so small that scientists believe they can linger in the air for \u003ca href=\"https://tinyurl.com/FAQ-aerosols\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">minutes or even hours\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Do scientists really know that aerosol transmission is happening?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Multiple scientists who study airborne transmission of infectious diseases say there is \u003ca href=\"https://tinyurl.com/aerosol-pros-cons\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ample evidence that airborne transmission is occurring\u003c/a>, and no evidence that it’s not.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In my mind there is no question that aerosols are a transmission route, and possibly the most important. I cannot come up with an alternate, plausible explanation for ‘super spreader’ events,” said UC Irvine chemistry professor Ann Marie Carlton, who signed the letter to the WHO.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That is really now the main controversy about airborne transmission: Just how significant is it compared to other modes of transmission?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both the CDC and WHO currently state the dominant path of infection is through respiratory droplets. The WHO also says surfaces play a major role.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other scientists who study indoor air quality and aerosol science have published an open-source document called \u003ca href=\"https://tinyurl.com/FAQ-aerosols\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003cem>FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, arguing that “the aerosol pathway is at least as important” as respiratory droplets and surfaces. “Some of us think that the aerosol pathway is the dominant way of transmission.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a Sept. 30 \u003ca href=\"https://www.wired.com/video/watch/wired25-2020-anthony-fauci-covid-19-pandemic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">interview\u003c/a> with Wired magazine, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said, “I believe pretty confidently” that some aerosol transmission was taking place. But he said just how much is unclear. “It is likely that it is not the major form of transmission,” he said. “That the major form is still that droplet type of transmission from person to person in close contact.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>OK, so what can we do to reduce our risk of catching the virus through aerosols?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A lot of what we are doing to protect ourselves from the spread of the virus through respiratory droplets will protect us from aerosols, too — measures like moving gatherings outside and wearing a mask. When everyone \u003ca href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6498/1422\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">wears a mask\u003c/a>, it can reduce how many droplets, of any size, escape into the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1967445\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 400px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1967445\" title=\"V. Altounian/Science\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut-800x1035.jpg\" alt=\"V. Altounian/Science\" width=\"400\" height=\"517\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut-800x1035.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut-160x207.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut-768x993.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/RS44028_F1.large-qut.jpg 981w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">V. Altounian/Science \u003ccite>(Courtesy Kim Prather)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given that indoor environments with poor air circulation are a major concern for potential airborne transmission, scientists recommend that people avoid the following:\u003c/p>\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>Spaces with poor ventilation\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Spaces where you are close to others\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Places where people gather for an extended period of time\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Places where people are talking, singing, yelling or engaging in aerobic exercise\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003cp>You should also:\u003c/p>\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>Wear a mask indoors\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Open windows and doors to improve ventilation\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Commercial properties or buildings should use air filters that bring in outdoor air rather than recirculating it. Buildings with a MERV 13 filter or higher will do a good job of capturing particles that carry the virus\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>At home, use portable HEPA air filters, which are able to filter out particles that carry the coronavirus\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "Federal Study Shows Testing Is Capturing Only a Fraction of U.S. COVID-19 Cases",
"headTitle": "Federal Study Shows Testing Is Capturing Only a Fraction of U.S. COVID-19 Cases | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"big-cap-wrap\">\u003cspan class=\"big-cap\">T\u003c/span>\u003c/span>he true number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. could be anywhere from six to 24 times higher than the confirmed number of cases, depending on location, according to a large federal study that relied on data from 10 U.S. cities and states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The vast majority of Americans, however, are still vulnerable to COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.4130?guestAccessKey=7a5c32e6-3c27-41b3-b46c-43c4a38bbe00&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=072120\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The study\u003c/a>, published Tuesday in JAMA Internal Medicine, relied on \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">serological tests\u003c/a> — blood screens that search for antibodies to the virus and that determine whether someone was previously infected. They are different from diagnostic tests, which only detect people who currently have the virus, called SARS-CoV-2.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, an estimated 1% of people in the San Francisco Bay Area have had COVID-19, while 6.9% of people in New York City have, according to the paper’s authors, who included researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state health departments. In seven of the 10 sites, the estimated number of cases was 10 times the number of reported cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study was based on tests from more than 16,000 people across the 10 sites, but one limitation is that it relies on old data. The San Francisco samples were collected from April 23-27, while the New York tests were on blood from March 23 to April 1. The latest tests were conducted in May, and a lot can change during two months in the course of an outbreak. In South Florida, for example, researchers estimated that 1.9% of the population had antibodies to the virus. But that figure is based on samples collected from April 6-10, and given the spread of the virus since then in the state, the number now would certainly be some amount higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, the data reflect what CDC Director Robert Redfield recently said — that true case numbers are\u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> 10 times higher\u003c/a> than confirmed diagnoses. Confirmed cases in the U.S. stand at more than 3.8 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The data underscore two other points: that \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/trump-said-more-covid19-testing-creates-more-cases-we-did-the-math/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">testing in the U.S. is not capturing\u003c/a> the full scope of the outbreak, and that even hard-hit communities are not close to reaching a herd immunity threshold — where enough people are immune from the virus (which \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">scientists expect will happen for some amount of time\u003c/a> after an initial infection) to slow down its spread to the point that unprotected people have a natural buffer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The study rebukes the idea that current population-wide levels of acquired immunity (so-called herd immunity) will pose any substantial impediment to the propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S., at least for now,” infectious disease experts Tyler Brown and Rochelle Walensky of Massachusetts General Hospital wrote in \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768835\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">an editorial\u003c/a> accompanying the study. Experts estimate that 60% to 70% of people in a given area would need to be protected from the virus — either through recovering from an infection or vaccination — to reach herd immunity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other locations included in the study and the estimated levels of antibodies in their residents:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Western Washington: 1.1%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Louisiana: 5.8%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Philadelphia area: 3.2%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Missouri: 2.7%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Utah: 2.2%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Connecticut: 4.9%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Minneapolis-St. Paul area: 2.4%\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Overall, the researchers found that there was no association between infection rates and age or sex.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The results fit with \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/24/the-results-of-coronavirus-serosurveys-are-starting-to-be-released-heres-how-to-kick-their-tires/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">other serosurveys\u003c/a> that have found just a few percent of people in a given place have been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19. There have been a few outliers: One study in the hard-hit Boston suburb of Chelsea estimated that 30% of people had been exposed to the virus, while another survey in a German town where a carnival drove an outbreak found 14% of residents had antibodies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, the new study landed on different estimates for New York City than \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a state-run survey released in April\u003c/a>, which found that 1 in 5 people in the city had antibodies. The disparate results highlight how study design — such as how participants are recruited or what blood samples are included — can influence findings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new study relied on leftover blood samples collected from patients who sought medical care for any reason from March through May. Because so many appointments and procedures were canceled then, and because so many people were avoiding medical care during stay-at-home periods, the samples “are likely not representative of a typical prepandemic cohort,” Brown and Walensky wrote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Experts note that the inability of diagnostic testing to keep up with cases is not just limited to problems with the tests, which have included a botched rollout, overwhelmed labs, and supply shortages. It’s also that some 20% to 40% of COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic. Those people \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">can still spread the virus\u003c/a>, as can people who eventually develop symptoms but don’t feel sick yet — which has complicated efforts to rein in the spread.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers also \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/11/coronavirus-immunity-vaccine-development/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">stress that it’s still not confirmed\u003c/a> if people who recover from COVID-19 are protected or for how long, or what levels (or titer) of antibody would be required to confer immunity. Some people with COVID-19 may not generate a robust antibody response, perhaps depending on how sick they get, though that remains an open question as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“At present, the relationship between detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and protective immunity against future infection is not known,” the study’s authors wrote. “Extrapolating these estimates to make assumptions about population immunity should not be done until more is known about the correlations between the presence, titer, and duration of antibodies and protection against this novel, emerging disease.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/?utm_source=STAT+Newsletters&utm_campaign=23aab8214a-Daily_Recap&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8cab1d7961-23aab8214a-152227318\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">story\u003c/a> was originally published by \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/\">STAT\u003c/a>, an online publication of Boston Globe Media that covers health, medicine, and scientific discovery.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"big-cap-wrap\">\u003cspan class=\"big-cap\">T\u003c/span>\u003c/span>he true number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. could be anywhere from six to 24 times higher than the confirmed number of cases, depending on location, according to a large federal study that relied on data from 10 U.S. cities and states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The vast majority of Americans, however, are still vulnerable to COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.4130?guestAccessKey=7a5c32e6-3c27-41b3-b46c-43c4a38bbe00&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=072120\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The study\u003c/a>, published Tuesday in JAMA Internal Medicine, relied on \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">serological tests\u003c/a> — blood screens that search for antibodies to the virus and that determine whether someone was previously infected. They are different from diagnostic tests, which only detect people who currently have the virus, called SARS-CoV-2.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, an estimated 1% of people in the San Francisco Bay Area have had COVID-19, while 6.9% of people in New York City have, according to the paper’s authors, who included researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state health departments. In seven of the 10 sites, the estimated number of cases was 10 times the number of reported cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study was based on tests from more than 16,000 people across the 10 sites, but one limitation is that it relies on old data. The San Francisco samples were collected from April 23-27, while the New York tests were on blood from March 23 to April 1. The latest tests were conducted in May, and a lot can change during two months in the course of an outbreak. In South Florida, for example, researchers estimated that 1.9% of the population had antibodies to the virus. But that figure is based on samples collected from April 6-10, and given the spread of the virus since then in the state, the number now would certainly be some amount higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, the data reflect what CDC Director Robert Redfield recently said — that true case numbers are\u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> 10 times higher\u003c/a> than confirmed diagnoses. Confirmed cases in the U.S. stand at more than 3.8 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The data underscore two other points: that \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/trump-said-more-covid19-testing-creates-more-cases-we-did-the-math/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">testing in the U.S. is not capturing\u003c/a> the full scope of the outbreak, and that even hard-hit communities are not close to reaching a herd immunity threshold — where enough people are immune from the virus (which \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">scientists expect will happen for some amount of time\u003c/a> after an initial infection) to slow down its spread to the point that unprotected people have a natural buffer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The study rebukes the idea that current population-wide levels of acquired immunity (so-called herd immunity) will pose any substantial impediment to the propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S., at least for now,” infectious disease experts Tyler Brown and Rochelle Walensky of Massachusetts General Hospital wrote in \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768835\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">an editorial\u003c/a> accompanying the study. Experts estimate that 60% to 70% of people in a given area would need to be protected from the virus — either through recovering from an infection or vaccination — to reach herd immunity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other locations included in the study and the estimated levels of antibodies in their residents:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Western Washington: 1.1%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Louisiana: 5.8%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Philadelphia area: 3.2%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Missouri: 2.7%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Utah: 2.2%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Connecticut: 4.9%\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Minneapolis-St. Paul area: 2.4%\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Overall, the researchers found that there was no association between infection rates and age or sex.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The results fit with \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/24/the-results-of-coronavirus-serosurveys-are-starting-to-be-released-heres-how-to-kick-their-tires/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">other serosurveys\u003c/a> that have found just a few percent of people in a given place have been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19. There have been a few outliers: One study in the hard-hit Boston suburb of Chelsea estimated that 30% of people had been exposed to the virus, while another survey in a German town where a carnival drove an outbreak found 14% of residents had antibodies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, the new study landed on different estimates for New York City than \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a state-run survey released in April\u003c/a>, which found that 1 in 5 people in the city had antibodies. The disparate results highlight how study design — such as how participants are recruited or what blood samples are included — can influence findings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new study relied on leftover blood samples collected from patients who sought medical care for any reason from March through May. Because so many appointments and procedures were canceled then, and because so many people were avoiding medical care during stay-at-home periods, the samples “are likely not representative of a typical prepandemic cohort,” Brown and Walensky wrote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Experts note that the inability of diagnostic testing to keep up with cases is not just limited to problems with the tests, which have included a botched rollout, overwhelmed labs, and supply shortages. It’s also that some 20% to 40% of COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic. Those people \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">can still spread the virus\u003c/a>, as can people who eventually develop symptoms but don’t feel sick yet — which has complicated efforts to rein in the spread.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers also \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/11/coronavirus-immunity-vaccine-development/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">stress that it’s still not confirmed\u003c/a> if people who recover from COVID-19 are protected or for how long, or what levels (or titer) of antibody would be required to confer immunity. Some people with COVID-19 may not generate a robust antibody response, perhaps depending on how sick they get, though that remains an open question as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“At present, the relationship between detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and protective immunity against future infection is not known,” the study’s authors wrote. “Extrapolating these estimates to make assumptions about population immunity should not be done until more is known about the correlations between the presence, titer, and duration of antibodies and protection against this novel, emerging disease.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/?utm_source=STAT+Newsletters&utm_campaign=23aab8214a-Daily_Recap&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8cab1d7961-23aab8214a-152227318\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">story\u003c/a> was originally published by \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/\">STAT\u003c/a>, an online publication of Boston Globe Media that covers health, medicine, and scientific discovery.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Prison Fire Camps Remain Quarantined After Nurse Team Exposes Inmates",
"headTitle": "Prison Fire Camps Remain Quarantined After Nurse Team Exposes Inmates | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Four of 12 Northern California prison fire camps under a coronavirus quarantine will have that quarantine extended because the hundreds of inmates housed there were potentially exposed to the coronavirus a second time. That possible contact with the virus came from one or more nurses brought in to test the inmates and who later became sick with COVID-19, according to a camp commander and two people incarcerated at one of the camps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote citation='Lt. Ben Ingwerson, Valley View fire camp commander']‘It’s like being a football player who is starting quarterback and now you’re sitting on the sidelines.’[/pullquote]The firefighters at the four camps make up as many as 16 of the state’s 77 Northern California prison crews, each of which typically contains 12 to 16 inmates. That means for several more weeks, about 250 of the state’s firefighters could be unavailable in case of a big fire. Currently, hundreds of more inmates at the other quarantined fire camps are also inactive, though many will be returned to duty soon, according to the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The out-of-commission inmates make up a small but significant chunk of Cal Fire’s 11,450 full-time and seasonal firefighters and other employees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last week, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the hiring of 858 more fire personnel to replace some of the prison crews sidelined by lockdowns or thinned by the early release of 10,000 prisoners, which decreased the population of the crowded penitentiary system in order to slow the spread of the virus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That hiring is “underway right now,”said Christine McMorrow\u003cem>, \u003c/em>a Cal Fire spokesperson\u003cem>. “\u003c/em>The hires are going to help us to cover the number of crews that we’ve lost from the camps program.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But she acknowledged it will take some time to hire the seasonal workers, and that the fire camps play an important role in helping the state fight wildfires. “The folks that are on quarantine, we’re hoping they’re going to get off of that and be available again this fire season,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The setback highlights the challenges that California and other Western states are facing heading into the most dangerous part of fire season amid the worst global pandemic in 100 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, the northern part of California received a moderate amount of winter rain, and the region faces a worse-than-average \u003ca href=\"https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf\">outlook\u003c/a> for wildfires. The recent coronavirus surge across California, just as the state enters its hottest, driest and most fire-prone months, could make this current fire season especially \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1962364/how-can-california-fight-wildfires-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic-in-a-few-months-well-likely-find-out\">complicated \u003c/a>and perilous.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lt. Ben Ingwerson, the CDCR officer in charge of Valley View, one of the four camps under the prolonged quarantine, expressed frustration that his crews remain under lockdown at such a critical time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like being a football player who is starting quarterback and now you’re sitting on the sidelines,” he said. “We risk our lives to save houses, property and people. That’s what we do. That’s the mission we signed up for. So it sucks sitting on the sideline. Nobody is going to like that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Multiple Exposures at CDCR\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The possible exposure of more prisoners to the coronavirus also comes on the heels of widespread \u003ca class=\"c-link\" href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11826469/shocking-heartbreaking-san-quentin-coronavirus-outbreak-alarms-health-officials\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11826469/shocking-heartbreaking-san-quentin-coronavirus-outbreak-alarms-health-officials\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\" aria-describedby=\"sk-tooltip-5805\">criticism\u003c/a> of CDCR by lawmakers, advocates and public health officials for the way the department has handled outbreaks at penitentiaries. In the most high-profile incident, the transfer of inmates at the virus-riddled California Institution for Men in Chino to San Quentin State Prison in Marin County resulted in an explosion of some 2,000 \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdcr.ca.gov/covid19/population-status-tracking/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">infections\u003c/a> at San Quentin, including 12 deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The inmates at the 12 quarantined fire camps were initially exposed to the coronavirus during a \u003ca href=\"https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243822702.html\">large\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243822702.html\">outbreak\u003c/a> at the California Correctional Center in Susanville. They were put under quarantine after CDCR officials learned from contact tracing that the inmates had stopped at that prison, a hub for prisoner firefighter training, before they headed to the rural fire camps, where the state can quickly dispatch them to fight wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CDCR did not find any confirmed infections at the 12 camps that were connected to the Susanville outbreak. One person thought to have the coronavirus was “a false positive,” according to CDCR spokesperson Aaron Francis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The quarantine was placed out of an abundance of caution and CDCR expects that many of the conservation camps will return to active service by next week,” he said in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The extended quarantine is occurring at Intermountain, Sugar Pine and Salt Creek conservation camps, in addition to Valley View, according to Ingwerson, the CDCR lieutenant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ingwerson said at least one of the four nurses who conducted coronavirus tests on inmates at the four camps is now sick with COVID-19 herself, necessitating the extended lockdown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Two inmates also told KQED that prison officials informed them they were exposed to the virus through nurses who had come down with COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Beyond confirming the extended quarantine, the CDCR’s Francis wouldn’t discuss details of the camps affected or the nurse or nurses believed to be the source of the infections.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So far, the crews housed at the four camps are still not experiencing any symptoms, according to Ingwerson. CDCR plans to test the inmates again this week, but in a best-case scenario, the lockdown at the four facilities won’t be lifted for at least two weeks, and only if no cases are found, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the tests both come back negative, then we’ll be up and running with the rest of the crews.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jason Dixon, who is incarcerated at Valley View, located in rural Glenn County, said, \u003cem>“\u003c/em>We got a lot of motivated, hardworking firefighters here. We’re trying hard to get out there on the fires.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Compared to a prison like San Quentin, Dixon says, it is easier to keep physically distanced at the camp. Inmates sleep on single beds instead of bunk beds, and they have an hour or two each day in an exercise yard, where they can keep distant from other people. Each night they can use the telephone, which is sanitized in-between calls, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>“\u003c/em>We have guys that are daily cleaning the bathrooms, cleaning the dorms, disinfecting everything.” While the crews are “trying to stay positive,” he said they’re “getting thrown speed bumps left and right.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During the lockdown, most people incarcerated in the camps are required to spend the bulk of the day at their bunks, and they do pushups and other exercises to stay in firefighting shape, Dixon says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>“\u003c/em>All of us here worked very hard to come to fire camp,” said Tony Simoneau, another inmate at Valley View. “And it’s been a nightmare.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While there may be more space in a fire camp, said Charles Pattillo, former executive director of the California Prison Industry Authority\u003cstrong>,\u003c/strong> which manages businesses that hire CDCR prisoners, “You’re basically just running a prison in the woods. You have lower security issues. But you don’t have access to medical there.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The use of inmate firefighters in dangerous wildfires has been criticized by criminal justice advocates, who point out the inmates are paid a small wage of a few dollars a day, plus an additional $1 per hour when they are fighting fires.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "The extended quarantine will apply to four of 12 Northern California prison fire camps. That means for several more weeks, about 250 of the state’s firefighters could be unavailable in case of a big fire.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Four of 12 Northern California prison fire camps under a coronavirus quarantine will have that quarantine extended because the hundreds of inmates housed there were potentially exposed to the coronavirus a second time. That possible contact with the virus came from one or more nurses brought in to test the inmates and who later became sick with COVID-19, according to a camp commander and two people incarcerated at one of the camps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>The firefighters at the four camps make up as many as 16 of the state’s 77 Northern California prison crews, each of which typically contains 12 to 16 inmates. That means for several more weeks, about 250 of the state’s firefighters could be unavailable in case of a big fire. Currently, hundreds of more inmates at the other quarantined fire camps are also inactive, though many will be returned to duty soon, according to the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The out-of-commission inmates make up a small but significant chunk of Cal Fire’s 11,450 full-time and seasonal firefighters and other employees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last week, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the hiring of 858 more fire personnel to replace some of the prison crews sidelined by lockdowns or thinned by the early release of 10,000 prisoners, which decreased the population of the crowded penitentiary system in order to slow the spread of the virus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That hiring is “underway right now,”said Christine McMorrow\u003cem>, \u003c/em>a Cal Fire spokesperson\u003cem>. “\u003c/em>The hires are going to help us to cover the number of crews that we’ve lost from the camps program.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But she acknowledged it will take some time to hire the seasonal workers, and that the fire camps play an important role in helping the state fight wildfires. “The folks that are on quarantine, we’re hoping they’re going to get off of that and be available again this fire season,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The setback highlights the challenges that California and other Western states are facing heading into the most dangerous part of fire season amid the worst global pandemic in 100 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, the northern part of California received a moderate amount of winter rain, and the region faces a worse-than-average \u003ca href=\"https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf\">outlook\u003c/a> for wildfires. The recent coronavirus surge across California, just as the state enters its hottest, driest and most fire-prone months, could make this current fire season especially \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1962364/how-can-california-fight-wildfires-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic-in-a-few-months-well-likely-find-out\">complicated \u003c/a>and perilous.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lt. Ben Ingwerson, the CDCR officer in charge of Valley View, one of the four camps under the prolonged quarantine, expressed frustration that his crews remain under lockdown at such a critical time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like being a football player who is starting quarterback and now you’re sitting on the sidelines,” he said. “We risk our lives to save houses, property and people. That’s what we do. That’s the mission we signed up for. So it sucks sitting on the sideline. Nobody is going to like that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Multiple Exposures at CDCR\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The possible exposure of more prisoners to the coronavirus also comes on the heels of widespread \u003ca class=\"c-link\" href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11826469/shocking-heartbreaking-san-quentin-coronavirus-outbreak-alarms-health-officials\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11826469/shocking-heartbreaking-san-quentin-coronavirus-outbreak-alarms-health-officials\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\" aria-describedby=\"sk-tooltip-5805\">criticism\u003c/a> of CDCR by lawmakers, advocates and public health officials for the way the department has handled outbreaks at penitentiaries. In the most high-profile incident, the transfer of inmates at the virus-riddled California Institution for Men in Chino to San Quentin State Prison in Marin County resulted in an explosion of some 2,000 \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdcr.ca.gov/covid19/population-status-tracking/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">infections\u003c/a> at San Quentin, including 12 deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The inmates at the 12 quarantined fire camps were initially exposed to the coronavirus during a \u003ca href=\"https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243822702.html\">large\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243822702.html\">outbreak\u003c/a> at the California Correctional Center in Susanville. They were put under quarantine after CDCR officials learned from contact tracing that the inmates had stopped at that prison, a hub for prisoner firefighter training, before they headed to the rural fire camps, where the state can quickly dispatch them to fight wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CDCR did not find any confirmed infections at the 12 camps that were connected to the Susanville outbreak. One person thought to have the coronavirus was “a false positive,” according to CDCR spokesperson Aaron Francis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The quarantine was placed out of an abundance of caution and CDCR expects that many of the conservation camps will return to active service by next week,” he said in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The extended quarantine is occurring at Intermountain, Sugar Pine and Salt Creek conservation camps, in addition to Valley View, according to Ingwerson, the CDCR lieutenant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ingwerson said at least one of the four nurses who conducted coronavirus tests on inmates at the four camps is now sick with COVID-19 herself, necessitating the extended lockdown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Two inmates also told KQED that prison officials informed them they were exposed to the virus through nurses who had come down with COVID-19.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Beyond confirming the extended quarantine, the CDCR’s Francis wouldn’t discuss details of the camps affected or the nurse or nurses believed to be the source of the infections.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So far, the crews housed at the four camps are still not experiencing any symptoms, according to Ingwerson. CDCR plans to test the inmates again this week, but in a best-case scenario, the lockdown at the four facilities won’t be lifted for at least two weeks, and only if no cases are found, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the tests both come back negative, then we’ll be up and running with the rest of the crews.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jason Dixon, who is incarcerated at Valley View, located in rural Glenn County, said, \u003cem>“\u003c/em>We got a lot of motivated, hardworking firefighters here. We’re trying hard to get out there on the fires.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Compared to a prison like San Quentin, Dixon says, it is easier to keep physically distanced at the camp. Inmates sleep on single beds instead of bunk beds, and they have an hour or two each day in an exercise yard, where they can keep distant from other people. Each night they can use the telephone, which is sanitized in-between calls, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>“\u003c/em>We have guys that are daily cleaning the bathrooms, cleaning the dorms, disinfecting everything.” While the crews are “trying to stay positive,” he said they’re “getting thrown speed bumps left and right.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During the lockdown, most people incarcerated in the camps are required to spend the bulk of the day at their bunks, and they do pushups and other exercises to stay in firefighting shape, Dixon says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>“\u003c/em>All of us here worked very hard to come to fire camp,” said Tony Simoneau, another inmate at Valley View. “And it’s been a nightmare.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While there may be more space in a fire camp, said Charles Pattillo, former executive director of the California Prison Industry Authority\u003cstrong>,\u003c/strong> which manages businesses that hire CDCR prisoners, “You’re basically just running a prison in the woods. You have lower security issues. But you don’t have access to medical there.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The use of inmate firefighters in dangerous wildfires has been criticized by criminal justice advocates, who point out the inmates are paid a small wage of a few dollars a day, plus an additional $1 per hour when they are fighting fires.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "How Do We Get Out of This Mess? Public Health Experts Give Their Top Suggestion",
"headTitle": "How Do We Get Out of This Mess? Public Health Experts Give Their Top Suggestion | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"big-cap-wrap\">\u003cspan class=\"big-cap\">T\u003c/span>\u003c/span>here’s no point in sugarcoating this. The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic is a raging dumpster fire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Where a number of countries in Asia and Europe have managed to dampen spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the point where they can consider returning to a semblance of normalcy — friends from Paris just emailed me pictures from their Sicilian vacation — many international borders remain closed to Americans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Sunday, Florida reported more than 15,000 cases — \u003cem>in a single day.\u003c/em> South Korea hasn’t registered 15,000 cases in the entire pandemic to date. One day last week the U.S. recorded more than 68,000 cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The website \u003ca href=\"https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Covidexitstrategy.org\u003c/a> has updated its previously tri-colored U.S. map, which showed states as either green, signifying they are trending better; yellow, making progress; or red, trending poorly. A fourth designation, called “bruised red,” signals states with uncontrolled spread; criteria for this category includes hospitals nearing capacity both in terms of overall beds and ICU space. Already, 17 states are wearing bruised red.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The virus suppression gains earned through the painful societal shutdowns of March, April and May — the flattened epidemiological curves — have been squandered in many parts of the country, dejected public health experts agree. A vaccine for the masses is still months away. What can be done?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing is clear, according to public health experts: Widespread returns to lockdown must be a last resort — and may not be doable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It would be really a morale breaker,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told STAT. “The stress and strain that people were under during prolonged lockdown is the genesis of why, when they were given the opportunity to try and open up, they rebounded so abruptly. Because what I think happened is, they overshot.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this is not a binary choice between societal lockdowns and the “party like it’s 2019” approach that put the country in the bind it’s in now. With that in mind, STAT asked a number of public health experts for a single suggestion of how we get ourselves out of this mess. We got lots.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None is a magic bullet. This is going to be a painful and slow process. But there are things individuals, public health departments, state and local governments, and the Trump administration can do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The fire brigade needs us all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Turn the Clock Back\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pent-up people embraced newfound freedoms over-exuberantly, Fauci said. He suggests going back to Phase 1 of the reopening process and then working forward with more caution. “Do it the way they should have done it in the beginning,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we do that, particularly closing the bars, avoiding anything that has a congregation of a large number of people, wearing masks outside essentially all the time, keep distancing … I would almost guarantee that we would see a turnaround of the resurgence that we’re seeing now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Embrace Al Fresco Living …\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ashish Jha, director of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, favors banning all indoor public activities that bring together groups of people, for now — including church services.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“My best read of the data is that a large chunk of the transmission is happening when people gather indoors. So, cut out the indoors. No restaurants, no bars, no nightclubs, obviously no schools right now,” Jha said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He’d close stores, except pharmacies and grocery stores, and require those to limit the number of people they admit at any one time. Staff and customers would have to wear face coverings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>… But Tailor Tools to Local Settings\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Saskia Popescu, an infection prevention epidemiologist at the University of Arizona, thinks advice like this needs to be pragmatic and take into account that conditions vary across the country. Like where she lives, in sweltering Phoenix.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Everyone likes to say ‘eat outside!’ she notes. “You can’t do that in 115 F heat, so let’s give people the tools to apply infection prevention strategies for these environments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Social responsibility is huge, but if we don’t do effective risk communication and education, you’re failing people,” Popescu said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Get Creative with Risk Communications\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Marm Kilpatrick listens to a lot of NPR. On NPR, he hears a lot of public service announcements from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urging people to cover their coughs, wash their hands, practice social distancing. Kilpatrick, an infectious diseases dynamics researcher at UC Santa Cruz, thinks most of that advice is, by now, not useful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>People should be wearing masks, so by definition coughs are covered. (Plus, people who are coughing should be staying home.) Fomites — viruses coughed onto surfaces — are no longer thought to be a major mode of transmission. And people don’t really get how to social distance except “avoid strangers,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They need better, more useful messages telling them how to do the things they want to do, but safely. Kilpatrick gives it a go: “Wear a mask. Meet outside. Give space.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Teach People to Think in Terms of Harm Reduction\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One thing I notice is that when people ask me a question, they say ‘yet.’ ‘Can I do this yet?’’’ said Amesh Adalja, an expert on emerging infectious disease and pandemic preparedness at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “And I say, ‘There is no ‘yet.’”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He suggests borrowing a page from the harm reduction work that has been done to address sexually transmitted diseases and the opioid epidemic — helping people figure out the risks they face and how to navigate them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have to get better at individual risk calculus,” Adalja said. “It’s not something that people are very good at. And I think that’s why when bars opened in certain places it was like the whole town turned 21.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Accept That for Now the Virus Has the Upper Hand\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We need to learn to live with SARS-CoV-2, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pretending the virus is not a threat or trying to will it away is a recipe for disaster. “You have less chance of winning a policy debate against this virus than you do of … winning a debate against 2,000 angry 2-year-olds,” Osterholm said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People have to understand that. It’s like trying to defy gravity. Just because you want to doesn’t mean you can.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Mine the Data More Efficiently\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Public health is amassing lots of information about who is getting sick and where they’re getting infected. That data should be put to better use, said Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can use that information to better direct resources and interventions, for example by closing high-risk activities rather than broad shutdowns,” Rivers said. These kinds of analyses will need to be ongoing, because conditions will change, and should be made public to help people assess their personal risks and guide their decision-making.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cloudy with a Chance of COVID\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Data mining could be used to develop local forecasting services, said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He envisages something like: “COVID activity in your area is currently low. While the risk is not zero, all you need to do is wear a mask while indoors in a public space,” or “COVID activity is expected to be very high and you are advised to shelter in place. Please avoid contact with at-risk persons.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Consistent Consistency\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Enough with the “but the flu” and “it’s getting better” and “it’s going to go away on its own” talk. There needs to be consistent communications from all levels of government about the risk the virus poses, said Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I know it sounds trivial,” Vespignani said, “but I have the feeling that is impossible to win the fight if a large fraction of the population is not believing there is something to fight.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cut out the Politics\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With more than six months’ worth of experience with COVID-19, the world has good evidence about what works to suppress spread of the virus. All levels of government should be urging people to take those steps, said Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If leaders from this point forward spoke with the same messages, consistently, clearly, without division, they likely have the power to change the views of many who have been less convinced of the right things to do because of conflicting, confusing messages they have been hearing,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Leaders should also practice what they preach — masks in public, avoiding large gatherings — and be guided by science, Inglesby said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Provide More Help for the Hardest Hit\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Black, Latinx, and Native American communities have been disproportionately hard hit by this pandemic, said Richard Besser, president and CEO of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. And too little has been done to ensure that essential workers, many in low-paying jobs, have the tools to protect their health and the health of their families and communities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fixing this means providing income support so people who are sick or exposed can stay home, and ensuring they have sick leave and family medical leave. It also means funding unemployment insurance for the millions of people who have lost their jobs in the pandemic, and extending rent forgiveness and moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures, Besser said, as well as providing safe places for people who need to isolate or quarantine but don’t have the space to do it at home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Pop-up Testing Sites\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Natalie Dean said more geographically focused testing would turn up cases that are being missed. And bringing the tests to where the people are would result in a lot more people being tested. Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, said more mobile testing vans could help identify where transmission is happening. That’s a different approach than the efforts to find and quarantine people who have been contacts of confirmed cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So, it is less about using tracing to reconstruct a chain, and more about identifying a hot spot and trying to flood the area with tests,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Daily Home Testing, on Uncle Sam\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Low-cost — $1 a day or less — home testing for COVID-19 is doable, said Michael Mina, a Harvard epidemiologist and associate medical director of clinical microbiology at Boston’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The tests exist. The technology exists. They could be manufactured tomorrow and they would detect people on the days that they are most likely to be transmitting,” Mina said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These tests aren’t as sensitive as laboratory tests — they miss some cases — but they have the advantage of giving an instant answer. The turnaround for lab testing can be a week. If everyone in a high transmission zone could test themselves daily and stay home while they test positive, it would dramatically lower transmission, he said, arguing the government should pay for these tests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Contact Tracing, With National Support\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Too few states have the capacity to do effective contact tracing, says Crystal Watson, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need this capacity now and we will need it in the fall,” said Watson, alluding to the fact that COVID-19 and influenza will be co-circulating as we get into the autumn and winter. “The White House should embrace a national initiative for contact tracing, and Congress should provide additional funding for state and local public health authorities to expand contact tracing capacity.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/fix-covid-19-dumpster-fire-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">story\u003c/a> was originally published by \u003ca href=\"https://www.statnews.com/\">STAT\u003c/a>, an online publication of Boston Globe Media that covers health, medicine, and scientific discovery.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Let's face it: The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic is a raging dumpster fire, as the coronavirus suppression gains earned through the painful shutdowns of spring have been squandered. So STAT asked public health experts for a single suggestion on how to tackle COVID-19.",
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"description": "Let's face it: The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic is a raging dumpster fire, as the coronavirus suppression gains earned through the painful shutdowns of spring have been squandered. So STAT asked public health experts for a single suggestion on how to tackle COVID-19.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"big-cap-wrap\">\u003cspan class=\"big-cap\">T\u003c/span>\u003c/span>here’s no point in sugarcoating this. The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic is a raging dumpster fire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Where a number of countries in Asia and Europe have managed to dampen spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the point where they can consider returning to a semblance of normalcy — friends from Paris just emailed me pictures from their Sicilian vacation — many international borders remain closed to Americans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Sunday, Florida reported more than 15,000 cases — \u003cem>in a single day.\u003c/em> South Korea hasn’t registered 15,000 cases in the entire pandemic to date. One day last week the U.S. recorded more than 68,000 cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The website \u003ca href=\"https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Covidexitstrategy.org\u003c/a> has updated its previously tri-colored U.S. map, which showed states as either green, signifying they are trending better; yellow, making progress; or red, trending poorly. A fourth designation, called “bruised red,” signals states with uncontrolled spread; criteria for this category includes hospitals nearing capacity both in terms of overall beds and ICU space. Already, 17 states are wearing bruised red.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The virus suppression gains earned through the painful societal shutdowns of March, April and May — the flattened epidemiological curves — have been squandered in many parts of the country, dejected public health experts agree. A vaccine for the masses is still months away. What can be done?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing is clear, according to public health experts: Widespread returns to lockdown must be a last resort — and may not be doable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It would be really a morale breaker,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told STAT. “The stress and strain that people were under during prolonged lockdown is the genesis of why, when they were given the opportunity to try and open up, they rebounded so abruptly. Because what I think happened is, they overshot.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this is not a binary choice between societal lockdowns and the “party like it’s 2019” approach that put the country in the bind it’s in now. With that in mind, STAT asked a number of public health experts for a single suggestion of how we get ourselves out of this mess. We got lots.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None is a magic bullet. This is going to be a painful and slow process. But there are things individuals, public health departments, state and local governments, and the Trump administration can do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The fire brigade needs us all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Turn the Clock Back\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pent-up people embraced newfound freedoms over-exuberantly, Fauci said. He suggests going back to Phase 1 of the reopening process and then working forward with more caution. “Do it the way they should have done it in the beginning,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we do that, particularly closing the bars, avoiding anything that has a congregation of a large number of people, wearing masks outside essentially all the time, keep distancing … I would almost guarantee that we would see a turnaround of the resurgence that we’re seeing now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Embrace Al Fresco Living …\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ashish Jha, director of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, favors banning all indoor public activities that bring together groups of people, for now — including church services.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“My best read of the data is that a large chunk of the transmission is happening when people gather indoors. So, cut out the indoors. No restaurants, no bars, no nightclubs, obviously no schools right now,” Jha said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He’d close stores, except pharmacies and grocery stores, and require those to limit the number of people they admit at any one time. Staff and customers would have to wear face coverings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>… But Tailor Tools to Local Settings\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Saskia Popescu, an infection prevention epidemiologist at the University of Arizona, thinks advice like this needs to be pragmatic and take into account that conditions vary across the country. Like where she lives, in sweltering Phoenix.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Everyone likes to say ‘eat outside!’ she notes. “You can’t do that in 115 F heat, so let’s give people the tools to apply infection prevention strategies for these environments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Social responsibility is huge, but if we don’t do effective risk communication and education, you’re failing people,” Popescu said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Get Creative with Risk Communications\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Marm Kilpatrick listens to a lot of NPR. On NPR, he hears a lot of public service announcements from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urging people to cover their coughs, wash their hands, practice social distancing. Kilpatrick, an infectious diseases dynamics researcher at UC Santa Cruz, thinks most of that advice is, by now, not useful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>People should be wearing masks, so by definition coughs are covered. (Plus, people who are coughing should be staying home.) Fomites — viruses coughed onto surfaces — are no longer thought to be a major mode of transmission. And people don’t really get how to social distance except “avoid strangers,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They need better, more useful messages telling them how to do the things they want to do, but safely. Kilpatrick gives it a go: “Wear a mask. Meet outside. Give space.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Teach People to Think in Terms of Harm Reduction\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One thing I notice is that when people ask me a question, they say ‘yet.’ ‘Can I do this yet?’’’ said Amesh Adalja, an expert on emerging infectious disease and pandemic preparedness at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “And I say, ‘There is no ‘yet.’”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He suggests borrowing a page from the harm reduction work that has been done to address sexually transmitted diseases and the opioid epidemic — helping people figure out the risks they face and how to navigate them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have to get better at individual risk calculus,” Adalja said. “It’s not something that people are very good at. And I think that’s why when bars opened in certain places it was like the whole town turned 21.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Accept That for Now the Virus Has the Upper Hand\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We need to learn to live with SARS-CoV-2, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pretending the virus is not a threat or trying to will it away is a recipe for disaster. “You have less chance of winning a policy debate against this virus than you do of … winning a debate against 2,000 angry 2-year-olds,” Osterholm said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People have to understand that. It’s like trying to defy gravity. Just because you want to doesn’t mean you can.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Mine the Data More Efficiently\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Public health is amassing lots of information about who is getting sick and where they’re getting infected. That data should be put to better use, said Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can use that information to better direct resources and interventions, for example by closing high-risk activities rather than broad shutdowns,” Rivers said. These kinds of analyses will need to be ongoing, because conditions will change, and should be made public to help people assess their personal risks and guide their decision-making.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cloudy with a Chance of COVID\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Data mining could be used to develop local forecasting services, said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He envisages something like: “COVID activity in your area is currently low. While the risk is not zero, all you need to do is wear a mask while indoors in a public space,” or “COVID activity is expected to be very high and you are advised to shelter in place. Please avoid contact with at-risk persons.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Consistent Consistency\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Enough with the “but the flu” and “it’s getting better” and “it’s going to go away on its own” talk. There needs to be consistent communications from all levels of government about the risk the virus poses, said Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I know it sounds trivial,” Vespignani said, “but I have the feeling that is impossible to win the fight if a large fraction of the population is not believing there is something to fight.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cut out the Politics\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With more than six months’ worth of experience with COVID-19, the world has good evidence about what works to suppress spread of the virus. All levels of government should be urging people to take those steps, said Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If leaders from this point forward spoke with the same messages, consistently, clearly, without division, they likely have the power to change the views of many who have been less convinced of the right things to do because of conflicting, confusing messages they have been hearing,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Leaders should also practice what they preach — masks in public, avoiding large gatherings — and be guided by science, Inglesby said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Provide More Help for the Hardest Hit\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Black, Latinx, and Native American communities have been disproportionately hard hit by this pandemic, said Richard Besser, president and CEO of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. And too little has been done to ensure that essential workers, many in low-paying jobs, have the tools to protect their health and the health of their families and communities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fixing this means providing income support so people who are sick or exposed can stay home, and ensuring they have sick leave and family medical leave. It also means funding unemployment insurance for the millions of people who have lost their jobs in the pandemic, and extending rent forgiveness and moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures, Besser said, as well as providing safe places for people who need to isolate or quarantine but don’t have the space to do it at home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Pop-up Testing Sites\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Natalie Dean said more geographically focused testing would turn up cases that are being missed. And bringing the tests to where the people are would result in a lot more people being tested. Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, said more mobile testing vans could help identify where transmission is happening. That’s a different approach than the efforts to find and quarantine people who have been contacts of confirmed cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So, it is less about using tracing to reconstruct a chain, and more about identifying a hot spot and trying to flood the area with tests,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Daily Home Testing, on Uncle Sam\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Low-cost — $1 a day or less — home testing for COVID-19 is doable, said Michael Mina, a Harvard epidemiologist and associate medical director of clinical microbiology at Boston’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The tests exist. The technology exists. They could be manufactured tomorrow and they would detect people on the days that they are most likely to be transmitting,” Mina said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These tests aren’t as sensitive as laboratory tests — they miss some cases — but they have the advantage of giving an instant answer. The turnaround for lab testing can be a week. If everyone in a high transmission zone could test themselves daily and stay home while they test positive, it would dramatically lower transmission, he said, arguing the government should pay for these tests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Contact Tracing, With National Support\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Too few states have the capacity to do effective contact tracing, says Crystal Watson, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need this capacity now and we will need it in the fall,” said Watson, alluding to the fact that COVID-19 and influenza will be co-circulating as we get into the autumn and winter. “The White House should embrace a national initiative for contact tracing, and Congress should provide additional funding for state and local public health authorities to expand contact tracing capacity.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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},
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"info": "The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.",
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"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
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},
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},
"californiareport": {
"id": "californiareport",
"title": "The California Report",
"tagline": "California, day by day",
"info": "KQED’s statewide radio news program providing daily coverage of issues, trends and public policy decisions.",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-California-Report-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "/californiareport",
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"order": 8
},
"link": "/californiareport",
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},
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"title": "The California Report Magazine",
"tagline": "Your state, your stories",
"info": "Every week, The California Report Magazine takes you on a road trip for the ears: to visit the places and meet the people who make California unique. The in-depth storytelling podcast from the California Report.",
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"order": 10
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM3NjkwNjk1OTAz",
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"airtime": "SUN 1pm-2pm, TUE 10pm, WED 1am",
"meta": {
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"source": "City Arts & Lectures"
},
"link": "https://www.cityarts.net",
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},
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"order": 1
},
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"info": "\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />",
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"id": "commonwealth-club",
"title": "Commonwealth Club of California Podcast",
"info": "The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. As a non-partisan forum, The Club brings to the public airwaves diverse viewpoints on important topics. The Club's weekly radio broadcast - the oldest in the U.S., dating back to 1924 - is carried across the nation on public radio stations and is now podcasting. Our website archive features audio of our recent programs, as well as selected speeches from our long and distinguished history. This podcast feed is usually updated twice a week and is always un-edited.",
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"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Commonwealth-Club-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
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"source": "Commonwealth Club of California"
},
"link": "/radio/program/commonwealth-club",
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5jb21tb253ZWFsdGhjbHViLm9yZy9hdWRpby9wb2RjYXN0L3dlZWtseS54bWw",
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"title": "Forum",
"tagline": "The conversation starts here",
"info": "KQED’s live call-in program discussing local, state, national and international issues, as well as in-depth interviews.",
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"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Forum-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"order": 9
},
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"officialWebsiteLink": "http://freakonomics.com/",
"airtime": "SUN 1am-2am, SAT 3pm-4pm",
"meta": {
"site": "radio",
"source": "WNYC"
},
"link": "/radio/program/freakonomics-radio",
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},
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"id": "fresh-air",
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"info": "A live production of NPR and WBUR Boston, in collaboration with stations across the country, Here & Now reflects the fluid world of news as it's happening in the middle of the day, with timely, in-depth news, interviews and conversation. Hosted by Robin Young, Jeremy Hobson and Tonya Mosley.",
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"hidden-brain": {
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"info": "Shankar Vedantam uses science and storytelling to reveal the unconscious patterns that drive human behavior, shape our choices and direct our relationships.",
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"source": "NPR"
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"how-i-built-this": {
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"info": "Guy Raz dives into the stories behind some of the world's best known companies. How I Built This weaves a narrative journey about innovators, entrepreneurs and idealists—and the movements they built.",
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"airtime": "SUN 7:30pm-8pm",
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"hyphenacion": {
"id": "hyphenacion",
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"tagline": "Where conversation and cultura meet",
"info": "What kind of no sabo word is Hyphenación? For us, it’s about living within a hyphenation. Like being a third-gen Mexican-American from the Texas border now living that Bay Area Chicano life. Like Xorje! Each week we bring together a couple of hyphenated Latinos to talk all about personal life choices: family, careers, relationships, belonging … everything is on the table. ",
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},
"jerrybrown": {
"id": "jerrybrown",
"title": "The Political Mind of Jerry Brown",
"tagline": "Lessons from a lifetime in politics",
"info": "The Political Mind of Jerry Brown brings listeners the wisdom of the former Governor, Mayor, and presidential candidate. Scott Shafer interviewed Brown for more than 40 hours, covering the former governor's life and half-century in the political game – and Brown has some lessons he'd like to share. ",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Political-Mind-of-Jerry-Brown-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"order": 18
},
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},
"latino-usa": {
"id": "latino-usa",
"title": "Latino USA",
"airtime": "MON 1am-2am, SUN 6pm-7pm",
"info": "Latino USA, the radio journal of news and culture, is the only national, English-language radio program produced from a Latino perspective.",
"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/latinoUsa.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "http://latinousa.org/",
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},
"link": "/radio/program/latino-usa",
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"apple": "https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=79681317&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory",
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"rss": "https://feeds.npr.org/510016/podcast.xml"
}
},
"marketplace": {
"id": "marketplace",
"title": "Marketplace",
"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 4pm-4:30pm, MON-WED 6:30pm-7pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Marketplace-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.marketplace.org/",
"meta": {
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"source": "American Public Media"
},
"link": "/radio/program/marketplace",
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"rss": "https://feeds.publicradio.org/public_feeds/marketplace-pm/rss/rss"
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},
"masters-of-scale": {
"id": "masters-of-scale",
"title": "Masters of Scale",
"info": "Masters of Scale is an original podcast in which LinkedIn co-founder and Greylock Partner Reid Hoffman sets out to describe and prove theories that explain how great entrepreneurs take their companies from zero to a gazillion in ingenious fashion.",
"airtime": "Every other Wednesday June 12 through October 16 at 8pm (repeats Thursdays at 2am)",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "https://mastersofscale.com/",
"meta": {
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"source": "WaitWhat"
},
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"rss": "https://rss.art19.com/masters-of-scale"
}
},
"mindshift": {
"id": "mindshift",
"title": "MindShift",
"tagline": "A podcast about the future of learning and how we raise our kids",
"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Mindshift-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
"imageAlt": "KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn",
"officialWebsiteLink": "/mindshift/",
"meta": {
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 12
},
"link": "/podcasts/mindshift",
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5",
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}
},
"morning-edition": {
"id": "morning-edition",
"title": "Morning Edition",
"info": "\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. Hosts Steve Inskeep, David Greene and Rachel Martin bring you the latest breaking news and features to prepare you for the day.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 3am-9am",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Morning-Edition-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.npr.org/programs/morning-edition/",
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"link": "/radio/program/morning-edition"
},
"onourwatch": {
"id": "onourwatch",
"title": "On Our Watch",
"tagline": "Deeply-reported investigative journalism",
"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/On-Our-Watch-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "/podcasts/onourwatch",
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 11
},
"link": "/podcasts/onourwatch",
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