Prop 5: Changes to the State Recall Election Process

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:00:00] You may remember that in 2021, California voters were asked whether or not to recall Governor Gavin Newsom from office.

Olivia Allen-Price [00:00:08] But there was also a second question on the ballot. Who should replace him if he was recalled?

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:00:15] Obviously, the recall failed, but if it was successful, Newsom would have technically been replaced by Republican Larry Elder, who won about 48% of the vote in that second question.

Olivia Allen-Price [00:00:29] And that’s how the process works for state-wide recall elections right now.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:00:33] But proposition five could change that.

Olivia Allen-Price [00:00:37] I’m Olivia Allen Price, host of Bay Curious.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:00:40] And I’m Ericka Cruz Guevara, host of The Bay.

Olivia Allen-Price [00:00:43] Welcome to Prop Fest, a collaboration between The Bay and BayCurious. And we’re back again with another episode to help you get up to speed on all the statewide propositions on the ballot this November.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:00:54] Today, we’re breaking down proposition five. Here’s how it reads on your ballot.

Voiceover [00:01:00] Prop 5 – Changes recall election process for statewide officers

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:01:07] Here to break it down for us is KQED’s politics and government correspondent, Guy Marzorati. Hey Guy.

Guy Marzorati [00:01:14] Hey, how’s it going?

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:01:15] Good. So this proposition that we’re talking about today pertains to recall reform. Before we dive in here, how exactly do recalls for people in statewide office currently work in California?

Guy Marzorati [00:01:31] Yeah, so the rules for recall in California are different for state office and local office. For local office, it’s probably somewhat of a familiar process for people. There’s a question on the ballot, should this person be removed from office? If they are removed, then how the next person gets chosen can result in a variety of ways. So if you remember the Oakland mayor recall, there was a special election after that. There was the district attorney recalls in Alameda and SF. The replacements there were appointed. State recalls work a little bit differently where voters are asked two questions on the ballot. One is, should this statewide official be removed? And then the second question is, if they are removed, who should replace them? And there’s a list of candidates that voters get to choose from. And what proposition five would do is eliminate that second question, that question about the successor.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:02:30] And as you just mentioned, and just to clarify for voters, Prop 5 specifically pertains to recalls for statewide office, right? Not local office. So what kinds of elected positions are we talking about here?

Guy Marzorati [00:02:45] That’s right, so this would only apply to statewide offices like governor, like attorney general and like state legislative offices, so assembly and Senate. And basically what it would do is make state recall elections more like local recall elections where there’s only one question on the ballot and it’s asking whether or not this elected official should be removed from office.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:03:06] And just for some background here, Guy, how often have recall campaigns been actually put before California voters in the past when it comes to these statewide offices? Like have sitting politicians actually even been recalled before?

Guy Marzorati [00:03:23] Yes. So since voters in California approved this recall process more than a hundred years ago, goes all the way back to 1911, there have been 11 recall elections against statewide officials. Of those six recalls have been successful. Five recall elections have been unsuccessful. The most famous successful recall election was in 2003, when Governor Gray Davis, a Democrat, was recalled by voters. And Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger won the successor election and became governor.

Voiceover [00:03:55] The recall campaign against Governor Gray-Davis is gathering steam with the launch of the

Voiceover [00:03:59] Governor Gray Davis is hurting our state and our people. First question you’re asked, do you believe it should be recalled? Then the second question is, should it be recalled, who would you like to see replace it? And it’s an open primary, one ballot. And whoever gets the most vote, if a majority say yes on recall, immediately becomes the governor of California.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:04:23] And the proponents of this measure sort of point to that election as a reason to make these kind of changes that Prop 5 is proposing, right?

Guy Marzorati [00:04:36] Yeah, you know, I think supporters say it’s fundamentally unfair that someone can win a successor election on a recall ballot and not get a majority vote, which can happen if there’s a if there is a recall against a state official and a majority of voters elect to recall that official, the top replacement candidate doesn’t need to get a majority vote. They just need to finish first and suddenly they take that office. So supporters of Proposition 5 say… This is basically a loophole. This is a workaround where someone could potentially become governor of California without ever getting a majority vote.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:05:13] So I get that that second question won’t be there on the ballot if Prop 5 is passed, but let’s say that the person does get recalled. What happens next in this Prop 5 universe? Like are they outed immediately or who takes their place at least temporarily?

Guy Marzorati [00:05:32] If you’re recalling a state legislator, so a state senator or a state assembly member, what will happen is there could be a special election called after the fact, where a new state legislate is picked. In the case of statewide offices, like attorney general, like secretary of state, a new secretary of State, a new attorney general will be appointed. In the cases of the governor, basically the lieutenant governor would take over And then there would be. An election to replace or to pick the next governor. So if it happens early in the governor’s term, there would be a special election taking place at the next statewide election where our voters would get to choose and vote on a new governor. If it happens late in that governor’s turn, the lieutenant governor would simply just fill the seat until the regularly scheduled election for governor.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:06:24] We’ll have more with KQED’s Guy Marzorati right after this break. By the way, if you appreciate the work we’re doing here on PopFest, consider becoming a sustaining KQED member. We can’t do this work without you. Just go to donate.kqed.org slash podcasts. We’ll be right back.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:06:49] And let’s get into the politics of this a little bit, Guy. Who else is sort of pushing for Prop 5 to be passed?

Guy Marzorati [00:06:57] Yeah, so this is really turned into kind of a partisan divide on Proposition 5, where we see the California Democratic Party in support, almost entirely Democrats in the legislature voted to put this on the ballot. And one of the top supporters of Proposition five is Shirley Weber, who’s California the secretary of state, the top election official.

Shirley Weber [00:07:17] This was a way in which people could game the system, looking for a time when we had low voter turnout. Then we’d have all these folks on the ballot and then you’d pick somebody and they’d have 30% or 20% of whatever it was.

Guy Marzorati [00:07:27] She said her office started working on these potential reforms to introduce them after the unsuccessful recall of Newsom in 2021. And here’s Weber talking about their proposal at a state Senate hearing.

Shirley Weber [00:07:40] The whole election about, should this person be recalled? So that the discussion is on the merit of the recall itself, not on is there a better replacement, but should this be person be recall? Has there been enough?

Guy Marzorati [00:07:51] Proponents here are really arguing that the state should avoid what happened in the last two recall elections for governor. What we’ve seen in the past is, when there’s a recall facing someone like Gray Davis, or in 2021, we saw this, a recall-facing Gavin Newsom, there’s also this second campaign that plays out in parallel about, okay, well, who should the replacement candidate be? Who should the top replacement candidate? This would eliminate that second part, and supporters say, well yes, this will really allow the conversation and the debate to focus on whether or not this person facing a recall actually deserves to be removed from office.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:08:29] Who is opposed to this measure and why?

Guy Marzorati [00:08:31] The opposition has come from Republicans, California’s Republican Party, Republicans in the state legislature, who have really argued against making this change the state’s recall rules.

Carl DeMaio [00:08:43] This is insane. We should be able to continue the process for recalls where if someone is being recalled from office, we first vote on the ballot. And secondly, we say, if they’re recalled, here’s who we want to take over representation.

Guy Marzorati [00:08:57] Republican Assemblymember Carl DeMaio is running an effort to support and oppose a few different measures, including oppose Proposition 5. And the argument you really hear from opponents of Prop 5 is that the recall system is working as it is.

Carl DeMaio [00:09:12] Please don’t weaken the recall provision in the state constitution. It’s one of the only things we have to hold politicians accountable.

Guy Marzorati [00:09:19] There doesn’t need to be any changes to it. It has existed in the state for over 100 years. They say the idea of having a governor be removed by the will of the people, by the voters, only to have a lieutenant governor come in and take their place is not really the change that voters who are pushing a recall are looking for in the first place. We see in modern day in California, the governor and lieutenant governor are almost always Democratic. And so if there’s a recall election against the governor, voters are seeking change. Number one, having just the next Democrat in line take that office might not really reflect to the will of what brought the voters to a recall. And secondly, the lieutenant governor would then serve as governor without ever having been elected. So if the argument for Proposition 5 is that a successor could take office with less than 50% of the vote, well Under Prop 5, the lieutenant governor would take office and they didn’t get any of the vote for governor. So opponents of Prop 5 see this as real flaws with the measure.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:10:25] And is anyone throwing lots of money into Prop 5 on either side? And any sense guy of how likely this is to pass?

Guy Marzorati [00:10:36] You know, we haven’t seen any campaign spending with Proposition 5 on either side. In mid-September, the Public Policy Institute of California released polling on the statewide measures and it showed just 35% of voters supporting Proposition five with 59% opposed. In what really looks like another example of California voters appearing hesitant to make really any changes to the state system of direct democracy.

Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:11:02] Well, Guy, thank you so much, as always, for breaking this one down. Appreciate it.

Guy Marzorati [00:11:06] Of course, thanks for having me.

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This story was reported by Guy Marzorati. Prop Fest is a collaboration between Bay Curious and The Bay. It’s made by Olivia Allen-Price, Katrina Schwartz, Christopher Beale, Anna Casalme, Ericka Cruz Guevarra, Alan Montecillo, Gabriela Glueck and Pauline Bartolone. Additional support from Jen Chien, Katie Sprenger, Maha Sanad, Ethan Toven-Lindsey and everyone on Team KQED.

Some members of the KQED podcast team are represented by The Screen Actors Guild, American Federation of Television and Radio Artists, San Francisco-Northern California Local.