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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23751\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 850px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/RS6281_SanFranciscoLightning5-scr.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/RS6281_SanFranciscoLightning5-scr.jpg\" alt=\"Lightning strikes the San Francisco Bay Area in summer 2013. (Steve Byrne/Steve Byrne Photography)\" width=\"850\" height=\"554\" class=\"size-full wp-image-23751\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Lightning strikes the San Francisco Bay Area in summer 2013. (Steve Byrne/Steve Byrne Photography)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>California’s warming climate is likely to mean a surge in lightning strikes, a development that would not bode well for fire season.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A new study suggests that the number of lightning strikes nationwide could jump 50 percent during this century, driven by rising temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Warm air can hold more water vapor than cool air,” explains \u003ca title=\"UCB - Romps\" href=\"http://romps.berkeley.edu/\">David Romps\u003c/a>, an atmospheric scientist whose team at UC Berkeley came up with \u003ca title=\"UCB - post\" href=\"http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2014/11/13/lightning-expected-to-increase-by-50-percent-with-global-warming/\">the new projections\u003c/a>, published this week in the journal \u003cem>Science\u003c/em>. “And as we warm the planet, we tend to get more water vapor in the atmosphere, and water vapor is the fuel for thunderstorms.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Romps says every rise of about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit should produce an 11 percent increase in ground strikes. His team came up with the projections using two key ingredients for lightning: precipitation and convection, the rising air that causes storm clouds to quickly pile up to enormous heights. Assuming average temperatures rise by 7 degrees during this century, he says warmer air will increase both, setting the stage for more electrical storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our hypothesis was that that product of precipitation and storm energy would be a good predictor for lightning, and it turns out to work very well,” says Romps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”UVvNEARAmnuHxV4NwdvZPfhxIVv7QylS”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The initial projection applies to the continental U.S. as a whole. Romps says his team will attempt to fine-tune its models to be able to make regional projections.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As we don’t yet know the distribution of this increase, it could be that regions of the country that get a lot of lightning strikes today will get even more in the future,” Romps says, “or it could be that regions that get very few today will get much more than they’re used to.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Or both, presumably. The answer will be important fodder for those who plan and budget for California’s fire season. While most wildfires are caused by human activity, lightning is the spark for many big fires in Northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s reasonable to speculate that with a 50 percent increase in lightning strikes, we would get an increase in wildfire frequency,” says Romps. “But we haven’t yet done the work to figure out where geographically this increase occurs and when in the season it occurs, and that would be important to know, to really nail down what the increase in wildfire frequency would be.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So far this year, lightning has been listed as the cause in 446 wildfires in Northern California that came under the primary jurisdiction of the U.S. Forest Service (which tends to handle the more remote fires). Those fires burned more than 276,000 acres combined. According to CalFire, a “lightning siege” comprising thousands of strikes in July and August were responsible for the season’s largest fire, the 130,000-acre \u003ca title=\"KPCC FireTracker - Happy Camp\" href=\"http://firetracker.scpr.org/happy-camp-complex/\">Happy Camp Complex\u003c/a> in the Klamath National Forest.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23751\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 850px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/RS6281_SanFranciscoLightning5-scr.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/RS6281_SanFranciscoLightning5-scr.jpg\" alt=\"Lightning strikes the San Francisco Bay Area in summer 2013. (Steve Byrne/Steve Byrne Photography)\" width=\"850\" height=\"554\" class=\"size-full wp-image-23751\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Lightning strikes the San Francisco Bay Area in summer 2013. (Steve Byrne/Steve Byrne Photography)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>California’s warming climate is likely to mean a surge in lightning strikes, a development that would not bode well for fire season.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A new study suggests that the number of lightning strikes nationwide could jump 50 percent during this century, driven by rising temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Warm air can hold more water vapor than cool air,” explains \u003ca title=\"UCB - Romps\" href=\"http://romps.berkeley.edu/\">David Romps\u003c/a>, an atmospheric scientist whose team at UC Berkeley came up with \u003ca title=\"UCB - post\" href=\"http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2014/11/13/lightning-expected-to-increase-by-50-percent-with-global-warming/\">the new projections\u003c/a>, published this week in the journal \u003cem>Science\u003c/em>. “And as we warm the planet, we tend to get more water vapor in the atmosphere, and water vapor is the fuel for thunderstorms.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Romps says every rise of about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit should produce an 11 percent increase in ground strikes. His team came up with the projections using two key ingredients for lightning: precipitation and convection, the rising air that causes storm clouds to quickly pile up to enormous heights. Assuming average temperatures rise by 7 degrees during this century, he says warmer air will increase both, setting the stage for more electrical storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our hypothesis was that that product of precipitation and storm energy would be a good predictor for lightning, and it turns out to work very well,” says Romps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The initial projection applies to the continental U.S. as a whole. Romps says his team will attempt to fine-tune its models to be able to make regional projections.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As we don’t yet know the distribution of this increase, it could be that regions of the country that get a lot of lightning strikes today will get even more in the future,” Romps says, “or it could be that regions that get very few today will get much more than they’re used to.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Or both, presumably. The answer will be important fodder for those who plan and budget for California’s fire season. While most wildfires are caused by human activity, lightning is the spark for many big fires in Northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s reasonable to speculate that with a 50 percent increase in lightning strikes, we would get an increase in wildfire frequency,” says Romps. “But we haven’t yet done the work to figure out where geographically this increase occurs and when in the season it occurs, and that would be important to know, to really nail down what the increase in wildfire frequency would be.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So far this year, lightning has been listed as the cause in 446 wildfires in Northern California that came under the primary jurisdiction of the U.S. Forest Service (which tends to handle the more remote fires). Those fires burned more than 276,000 acres combined. According to CalFire, a “lightning siege” comprising thousands of strikes in July and August were responsible for the season’s largest fire, the 130,000-acre \u003ca title=\"KPCC FireTracker - Happy Camp\" href=\"http://firetracker.scpr.org/happy-camp-complex/\">Happy Camp Complex\u003c/a> in the Klamath National Forest.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Bay Area's Coal Mining History at the Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve",
"headTitle": "Bay Area’s Coal Mining History at the Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23432\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-11-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-23432\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-11-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"A chunk of petrified wood shows evidence of transformation into coal at Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A chunk of petrified wood shows evidence of transformation into coal at Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Last week, the United Nations released a sobering \u003ca title=\"United Nations Global Climate Change Report, New York Times Article\" href=\"http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/world/europe/global-warming-un-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change.html?_r=0&referrer=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report on global climate change\u003c/a>, warning that the continuing buildup of greenhouse gases poses “severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.” I considered this as I visited the site of one of the Bay Area’s last coal mines that has been closed since 1906. \u003ca title=\"Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve, EBRPD\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/black_diamond\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve\u003c/a> features a landscape of steep sandstone hills, chaparral and grassland, with remnants of old coal and sandstone mines pocketing its surface, though all known entrances are sealed or monitored.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23433\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 121px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-21-121x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-23433\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-21-121x162.jpg\" alt=\"Our tour group pauses on the way into the sandstone mine to tour the underground workings. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\" width=\"121\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Our tour group pauses on the way into the sandstone mine to tour the underground workings. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Coal was the fuel that powered the Industrial Revolution. Formed from plants primarily in swamps and bogs, where the plants die and then are altered into coal in the pressurized environment beneath the Earth’s surface. In the tour of Black Diamond, we found petrified wood with coal pockets on some of its surfaces, caught partway through the transformation process. The coal fields around Mount Diablo were discovered in 1855. During its heyday, the area had 12 mines that supported thousands of miners and their families from around the world in five town sites. Four million tons of sub-bituminous and lignite coal was extracted from the Mount Diablo coal fields until the quantity, price and quality was overtaken by a larger operation with higher-quality anthracite coal from Washington State. The townsites were abandoned and houses moved when the mines closed around 1906. The only remnants are the old cemetery on the hillside, non-native trees brought by the miners and grey piles of mine tailings. There were other coal mines in California around the same time, in \u003ca title=\"Tesla Coal Mines\" href=\"http://www.teslacoalmines.org/Tesla.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tesla\u003c/a> near Livermore, and in \u003ca title=\"Ione Coal Mines\" href=\"http://amadorgold.net/tours/mines/ionecoal/ionecoal.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ione\u003c/a> (Amador County).\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23434\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 216px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-216x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-23434\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-216x162.jpg\" alt=\"The old coalmine intersects the sandstone mine evidenced by the black seams with some redwood timbers embedded in the six inch tall ribbon of coal. Coal mines were small, oftentimes only about 3 feet tall and oftentimes worked by young children before labor laws mandated against such practices. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\" width=\"216\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The old coalmine intersects the sandstone mine, evidenced by the black seams with some redwood timbers embedded in the six inch tall ribbon of coal. Coal mines were small, oftentimes only about 3 feet tall and oftentimes worked by young children before labor laws mandated against such practices. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Worldwide, coal accounts for a growing percentage of global energy needs, about 30%, especially in developing countries. The United States ranks number two behind China in coal usage, primarily for electricity production. In comparison to the rest of the U.S., California has only about ten coal production plants, which accounts for less than 1% of the states energy usage. Strict regulations for air quality standards and more plentiful natural gas, hydro power and alternative sources help to meet California’s energy needs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You can visit Black Diamond Mines through November to get an underground mine tour, otherwise you’ll have to wait until February when the tours resume for the season. More information about the weekend public tours is available on the \u003ca title=\"Black Diamond Mines, EBRPD\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/black_diamond\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">East Bay Regional Parks website\u003c/a>. The guided tour takes you through the workings of a sandstone mine that operated from 1920-45. The coal mines, collapsed when they were abandoned, can be seen underground where they intersect with the newer sandstone mine. Within the park, visitors can also explore the Prospect Tunnel for 200 feet on their own – bring a flashlight. Though California is one of the most energy efficient states –- 40% less electricity use than the average American according to \u003ca title=\"Sourcewatch.org website\" href=\"http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=California_and_coal%20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sourcewatch\u003c/a> — you can also consider what else you can do to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help halt climate change. Check the \u003ca title=\"EPA Climate Change website\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Environmental Protection Agency’s website\u003c/a> to find additional actions you can take to help the planet and ourselves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "One-third of the world's energy use relies on the greenhouse gas-producing coal, and the United Nations released a sobering report last week about its ongoing impact on global climate change. Find out about the Bay Area's own legacy with this fuel source.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23432\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-11-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-23432\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-11-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"A chunk of petrified wood shows evidence of transformation into coal at Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A chunk of petrified wood shows evidence of transformation into coal at Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Last week, the United Nations released a sobering \u003ca title=\"United Nations Global Climate Change Report, New York Times Article\" href=\"http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/world/europe/global-warming-un-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change.html?_r=0&referrer=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report on global climate change\u003c/a>, warning that the continuing buildup of greenhouse gases poses “severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.” I considered this as I visited the site of one of the Bay Area’s last coal mines that has been closed since 1906. \u003ca title=\"Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve, EBRPD\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/black_diamond\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve\u003c/a> features a landscape of steep sandstone hills, chaparral and grassland, with remnants of old coal and sandstone mines pocketing its surface, though all known entrances are sealed or monitored.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23433\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 121px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-21-121x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-23433\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-21-121x162.jpg\" alt=\"Our tour group pauses on the way into the sandstone mine to tour the underground workings. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\" width=\"121\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Our tour group pauses on the way into the sandstone mine to tour the underground workings. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Coal was the fuel that powered the Industrial Revolution. Formed from plants primarily in swamps and bogs, where the plants die and then are altered into coal in the pressurized environment beneath the Earth’s surface. In the tour of Black Diamond, we found petrified wood with coal pockets on some of its surfaces, caught partway through the transformation process. The coal fields around Mount Diablo were discovered in 1855. During its heyday, the area had 12 mines that supported thousands of miners and their families from around the world in five town sites. Four million tons of sub-bituminous and lignite coal was extracted from the Mount Diablo coal fields until the quantity, price and quality was overtaken by a larger operation with higher-quality anthracite coal from Washington State. The townsites were abandoned and houses moved when the mines closed around 1906. The only remnants are the old cemetery on the hillside, non-native trees brought by the miners and grey piles of mine tailings. There were other coal mines in California around the same time, in \u003ca title=\"Tesla Coal Mines\" href=\"http://www.teslacoalmines.org/Tesla.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tesla\u003c/a> near Livermore, and in \u003ca title=\"Ione Coal Mines\" href=\"http://amadorgold.net/tours/mines/ionecoal/ionecoal.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ione\u003c/a> (Amador County).\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23434\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 216px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-216x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-23434\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/photo-216x162.jpg\" alt=\"The old coalmine intersects the sandstone mine evidenced by the black seams with some redwood timbers embedded in the six inch tall ribbon of coal. Coal mines were small, oftentimes only about 3 feet tall and oftentimes worked by young children before labor laws mandated against such practices. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\" width=\"216\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The old coalmine intersects the sandstone mine, evidenced by the black seams with some redwood timbers embedded in the six inch tall ribbon of coal. Coal mines were small, oftentimes only about 3 feet tall and oftentimes worked by young children before labor laws mandated against such practices. (Sharol Nelson-Embry)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Worldwide, coal accounts for a growing percentage of global energy needs, about 30%, especially in developing countries. The United States ranks number two behind China in coal usage, primarily for electricity production. In comparison to the rest of the U.S., California has only about ten coal production plants, which accounts for less than 1% of the states energy usage. Strict regulations for air quality standards and more plentiful natural gas, hydro power and alternative sources help to meet California’s energy needs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You can visit Black Diamond Mines through November to get an underground mine tour, otherwise you’ll have to wait until February when the tours resume for the season. More information about the weekend public tours is available on the \u003ca title=\"Black Diamond Mines, EBRPD\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/black_diamond\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">East Bay Regional Parks website\u003c/a>. The guided tour takes you through the workings of a sandstone mine that operated from 1920-45. The coal mines, collapsed when they were abandoned, can be seen underground where they intersect with the newer sandstone mine. Within the park, visitors can also explore the Prospect Tunnel for 200 feet on their own – bring a flashlight. Though California is one of the most energy efficient states –- 40% less electricity use than the average American according to \u003ca title=\"Sourcewatch.org website\" href=\"http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=California_and_coal%20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sourcewatch\u003c/a> — you can also consider what else you can do to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help halt climate change. Check the \u003ca title=\"EPA Climate Change website\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Environmental Protection Agency’s website\u003c/a> to find additional actions you can take to help the planet and ourselves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21834\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/Peoples-Climate-March-e1411330083958-1024x574.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-21834\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/Peoples-Climate-March-e1411330083958-1024x574.jpg\" alt=\"Courtesy People's Climate Watch\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Courtesy People’s Climate Watch\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/people/14562108/bill-chappell\">Bill Chappell\u003c/a> for \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/09/21/350320021/large-protests-in-hundreds-of-cities-vents-ire-at-climate-change\">NPR\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Streets in New York City and other towns were taken over by marchers Sunday in what organizers called the largest climate change protest in history. The People’s Climate March was timed to draw the notice of world leaders gathering for this week’s U.N. Climate Summit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, organizers estimated around 310,000 people joined the New York march alone. Protesters elsewhere also celebrated large turnouts. A Twitter feed at \u003ca href=\"http://peoplesclimate.org/\">the march’s website\u003c/a> showed crowds of demonstrators marching in Perth and Melbourne, in London and Dublin, and in Johannesburg and Tanzania.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"color: #111111\">As NPR’s Joel Rose reports from New York, the idea for the huge march started with professor and activist Bill McKibben, as a way to push for actions that limit greenhouse gas emissions. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said he’ll march with the protesters. \u003ca class=\"rssmi_more\" href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/story/2014/09/20/143730/organizers_hope_un_climate_march_will_be_largest_in_history?source=npr&category=science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">…Read More\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Copyright 2014 NPR. To see more, visit \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">http://www.npr.org/\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21834\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/Peoples-Climate-March-e1411330083958-1024x574.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-21834\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/Peoples-Climate-March-e1411330083958-1024x574.jpg\" alt=\"Courtesy People's Climate Watch\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Courtesy People’s Climate Watch\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/people/14562108/bill-chappell\">Bill Chappell\u003c/a> for \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/09/21/350320021/large-protests-in-hundreds-of-cities-vents-ire-at-climate-change\">NPR\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Streets in New York City and other towns were taken over by marchers Sunday in what organizers called the largest climate change protest in history. The People’s Climate March was timed to draw the notice of world leaders gathering for this week’s U.N. Climate Summit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, organizers estimated around 310,000 people joined the New York march alone. Protesters elsewhere also celebrated large turnouts. A Twitter feed at \u003ca href=\"http://peoplesclimate.org/\">the march’s website\u003c/a> showed crowds of demonstrators marching in Perth and Melbourne, in London and Dublin, and in Johannesburg and Tanzania.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"color: #111111\">As NPR’s Joel Rose reports from New York, the idea for the huge march started with professor and activist Bill McKibben, as a way to push for actions that limit greenhouse gas emissions. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said he’ll march with the protesters. \u003ca class=\"rssmi_more\" href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/story/2014/09/20/143730/organizers_hope_un_climate_march_will_be_largest_in_history?source=npr&category=science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">…Read More\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Copyright 2014 NPR. To see more, visit \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">http://www.npr.org/\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "Why More Trees in the Sierra Mean Less Water for California",
"headTitle": "Why More Trees in the Sierra Mean Less Water for California | KQED",
"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"audio-wrap\">\n\u003ch2>Listen:\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2014/09/20140915science.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21584\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/River-runoff.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21584\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/River-runoff.jpg\" alt=\"Sierra Nevada forests are denser than they once were, potentially reducing the amount of runoff that reaches California's reservoirs. (Dan Brekke/KQED)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sierra Nevada forests are denser than they once were, potentially reducing the amount of runoff that reaches California’s reservoirs. (Dan Brekke/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With California’s reservoir levels dropping, just about everyone is wishing the state had gotten more water this year. That doesn’t just depend on the weather, according to a team of scientists. Sierra Nevada forests play a big role in the state’s water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Just like crops, trees consume water. And Sierra Nevada forests are denser than they once were after decades of fire suppression. That could be reducing the amount of runoff coming from the snowpack — runoff that provides water for most of the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We call the Sierra Nevada our water towers for California,” says Roger Bales, a hydrologist with UC Merced. “About 60 percent of our consumable water comes from the Sierra Nevada.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bales is working in a pine forest about 20 miles west of Lake Tahoe, to understand the balance between and trees and runoff. His team has installed hundreds of sensors in the American River basin to record snow depth and soil moisture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The snowmelt really enters the soil,” he says, “and flows downslope to the nearest stream channel.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From there, it joins major rivers and \u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/science/climatewatch/waterandpower/map.jsp\">goes into reservoirs\u003c/a> and canals that reach \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/02/28/bay-area-do-you-know-where-your-water-comes-from/\">all the way to cities and farms\u003c/a> in the Central Valley, Bay Area and Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21585\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 340px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/bales-729x1024.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-21585\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/bales-729x1024.jpg\" alt=\"UC Merced's Roger Bales and Ziran Zhang work on a snow sensor tower in the Tahoe National Forest. (Lauren Sommer/KQED)\" width=\"340\" height=\"477\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">UC Merced’s Roger Bales and Ziran Zhang work on a snow sensor tower in the Tahoe National Forest. (Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>When trees use water through the process of evapotranspiration, it doesn’t run off into rivers and reservoirs. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That water travels up the tree trunk and then goes out through the leaves to the atmosphere,” Bales says. And there are a lot more trees using water today than there once were.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Frequent, low-intensity fires once cleared out small trees and maintained spaces in the forest. Decades of suppressing fires has allowed the forest to fill in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You go back about 100-to-150 years and the forest data show us there were maybe only half as many trees here,” Bales says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The snowpack is also less stable in a dense forest. The snow gets stuck in the trees’ branches before reaching the ground and evaporates faster because it’s more susceptible to sun and wind.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Because these changes have happened over millions of acres of forest, Bales says it’s led researchers to a basic question:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If there were half as many trees, would there be more runoff?” he asks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The research points to yes, he says — potentially a lot more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Is it 20 percent, 30 percent or 40 percent?” Bales says. “We’re sort of in that range. But that’s a hypothesis. Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that you could get anywhere from half a million to a million acre-feet additional water out of the Sierra Nevada.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A million acre-feet of water is enough to supply two million households in California for a year — an amount that could make a big difference during a drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Managing Overgrown Forests\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think the water piece is really huge,” says Scott Stephens, professor of fire science at UC Berkeley. “I think it’s under-appreciated but it’s massive.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stephens has found similar results in the Illilouette Creek basin in Yosemite National Park. About 40 fires have been allowed to burn there over several decades, reducing the number of trees per acre.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like there’s 20 percent more surface water leaving the streams in that area since the fire program began in the mid-1970s,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The widely spaced trees also make the forest more resistant to high-severity fire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”ebfC6eGZE6wvva0IQjLqdbheiT23eRrP”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I call it a potential win-win,” Stephens says. “It’s a win from a fire standpoint to have more resilient forests and also maybe a win in terms of being able to provide a critical resource for California, which is water.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But leaving naturally caused fires to burn over large areas of the Sierra Nevada is tricky, he says, especially near houses and communities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Letting fire work in those lands is risky,” Stephens says. “Sometimes it’s going to go as expected and once in a while it goes wrong.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another option is to allow timber companies to cut small trees, thinning the forest. It’s commonly done where roads already exist, but can be prohibitively expensive in remote areas and often faces environmental opposition.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change could make the problem even worse. A \u003ca href=\"http://news.uci.edu/press-releases/sierra-nevada-freshwater-runoff-could-drop-26-percent-by-2100-uc-study-finds/\">recent study\u003c/a> from UC Irvine found California’s forests will be using even more water by the end of the century, because warming temperatures will make the growing season longer. Runoff could drop by as much as 26 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we don’t act today, our grandkids’ grandkids are going to have so few options,” Stephens says. “It’s going to be warmer. It’s going to be more difficult to do this work and they’re going to be basically chasing their tails.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stephens says the good news is that California water districts are joining the conversation about how to manage forests. While it didn’t used to be on their radar, the connection between trees and our drinking water is becoming hard to ignore.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "California water districts are eyeing a potential new source of water: trees. After a century of fire suppression, Sierra Nevada forests are more dense than ever before. And those pine trees are taking up a lot of water that might otherwise run off into California rivers. \r\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21584\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/River-runoff.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21584\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/River-runoff.jpg\" alt=\"Sierra Nevada forests are denser than they once were, potentially reducing the amount of runoff that reaches California's reservoirs. (Dan Brekke/KQED)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sierra Nevada forests are denser than they once were, potentially reducing the amount of runoff that reaches California’s reservoirs. (Dan Brekke/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With California’s reservoir levels dropping, just about everyone is wishing the state had gotten more water this year. That doesn’t just depend on the weather, according to a team of scientists. Sierra Nevada forests play a big role in the state’s water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Just like crops, trees consume water. And Sierra Nevada forests are denser than they once were after decades of fire suppression. That could be reducing the amount of runoff coming from the snowpack — runoff that provides water for most of the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We call the Sierra Nevada our water towers for California,” says Roger Bales, a hydrologist with UC Merced. “About 60 percent of our consumable water comes from the Sierra Nevada.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bales is working in a pine forest about 20 miles west of Lake Tahoe, to understand the balance between and trees and runoff. His team has installed hundreds of sensors in the American River basin to record snow depth and soil moisture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The snowmelt really enters the soil,” he says, “and flows downslope to the nearest stream channel.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From there, it joins major rivers and \u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/science/climatewatch/waterandpower/map.jsp\">goes into reservoirs\u003c/a> and canals that reach \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/02/28/bay-area-do-you-know-where-your-water-comes-from/\">all the way to cities and farms\u003c/a> in the Central Valley, Bay Area and Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21585\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 340px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/bales-729x1024.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-21585\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/bales-729x1024.jpg\" alt=\"UC Merced's Roger Bales and Ziran Zhang work on a snow sensor tower in the Tahoe National Forest. (Lauren Sommer/KQED)\" width=\"340\" height=\"477\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">UC Merced’s Roger Bales and Ziran Zhang work on a snow sensor tower in the Tahoe National Forest. (Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>When trees use water through the process of evapotranspiration, it doesn’t run off into rivers and reservoirs. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That water travels up the tree trunk and then goes out through the leaves to the atmosphere,” Bales says. And there are a lot more trees using water today than there once were.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Frequent, low-intensity fires once cleared out small trees and maintained spaces in the forest. Decades of suppressing fires has allowed the forest to fill in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You go back about 100-to-150 years and the forest data show us there were maybe only half as many trees here,” Bales says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The snowpack is also less stable in a dense forest. The snow gets stuck in the trees’ branches before reaching the ground and evaporates faster because it’s more susceptible to sun and wind.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Because these changes have happened over millions of acres of forest, Bales says it’s led researchers to a basic question:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If there were half as many trees, would there be more runoff?” he asks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The research points to yes, he says — potentially a lot more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Is it 20 percent, 30 percent or 40 percent?” Bales says. “We’re sort of in that range. But that’s a hypothesis. Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that you could get anywhere from half a million to a million acre-feet additional water out of the Sierra Nevada.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A million acre-feet of water is enough to supply two million households in California for a year — an amount that could make a big difference during a drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Managing Overgrown Forests\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think the water piece is really huge,” says Scott Stephens, professor of fire science at UC Berkeley. “I think it’s under-appreciated but it’s massive.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stephens has found similar results in the Illilouette Creek basin in Yosemite National Park. About 40 fires have been allowed to burn there over several decades, reducing the number of trees per acre.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like there’s 20 percent more surface water leaving the streams in that area since the fire program began in the mid-1970s,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The widely spaced trees also make the forest more resistant to high-severity fire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I call it a potential win-win,” Stephens says. “It’s a win from a fire standpoint to have more resilient forests and also maybe a win in terms of being able to provide a critical resource for California, which is water.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But leaving naturally caused fires to burn over large areas of the Sierra Nevada is tricky, he says, especially near houses and communities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Letting fire work in those lands is risky,” Stephens says. “Sometimes it’s going to go as expected and once in a while it goes wrong.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another option is to allow timber companies to cut small trees, thinning the forest. It’s commonly done where roads already exist, but can be prohibitively expensive in remote areas and often faces environmental opposition.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change could make the problem even worse. A \u003ca href=\"http://news.uci.edu/press-releases/sierra-nevada-freshwater-runoff-could-drop-26-percent-by-2100-uc-study-finds/\">recent study\u003c/a> from UC Irvine found California’s forests will be using even more water by the end of the century, because warming temperatures will make the growing season longer. Runoff could drop by as much as 26 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we don’t act today, our grandkids’ grandkids are going to have so few options,” Stephens says. “It’s going to be warmer. It’s going to be more difficult to do this work and they’re going to be basically chasing their tails.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stephens says the good news is that California water districts are joining the conversation about how to manage forests. While it didn’t used to be on their radar, the connection between trees and our drinking water is becoming hard to ignore.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Artist Will Take a 13-Hour Watery Stand to Draw Attention to Rising Seas",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20300\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/cover-shot.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20300\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/cover-shot.jpg\" alt=\"Sarah Cameron Sunde stands through a tidal cycle in Bass Harbor, Maine\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sarah Cameron Sunde stands through a tidal cycle in Bass Harbor, Maine on August 15, 2013. (Maridee Slater)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On August 15th, performance artist Sarah Cameron Sunde will stand in the San Francisco Bay for a tidal cycle of over thirteen hours. At high tide, she’ll be covered up to her neck. This is the third iteration of her \u003ca title=\"36.5 Water Project\" href=\"http://www.365waterproject.org/\">36.5 water project\u003c/a>, which dramatizes the challenge of rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change is driving up sea levels around the globe at an accelerating rate. Tidal gauges show that San Francisco Bay has already risen by 8 inches since 1900. Scientists estimate a further 16-inch rise by 2050, and 55 inches by 2100. The \u003ca title=\"BCDC - Living with a Rising Bay\" href=\"http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/BPA/LivingWithRisingBay.pdf\">Bay Conservation and Development Commission\u003c/a> has used these numbers to project land loss of 281 and 333 square miles, respectively, including residential developments, schools and health care centers, roads and airports.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20310\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/climate_change_maps_regional55-e1407207820328.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-20310 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/climate_change_maps_regional55-e1407207820328.jpg\" alt=\"Potential inundation caused by 55-inch sea level rise by 2100.\" width=\"300\" height=\"307\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potential inundation caused by 55-inch sea level rise by 2100. San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission. Sea level rise data provided by USGS. Knowles, N. 2008. Siegel, S.W. and P. A. M. Bachand, 2002.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>These numbers are personal for Sunde, who grew up in the Bay Area. But it was the destruction Hurricane Sandy wrought on her current home of New York in 2012 that planted the seeds of the 36.5 water project. “All of a sudden I understood in a bigger way that everything is ephemeral,” she says. “In a hundred years from now, or even in my lifetime, it’s very possible that people will have to leave, that the city won’t be able to survive the change.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She took these thoughts with her to an artist residency in Maine, where she spent time on the coast, watching the tide come in. “After seeing a rock getting swallowed, I imagined a body out there in the water, and how beautiful an image that would be.” As a director, she immediately began to wonder who she could cast, then realized, “That’s insane; no one is going to do this for me. Three days later I was in the water.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>What Is Your Relationship With the Water?\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After standing through an enormous ten and a half foot tidal fluctuation in Maine, Sunde’s second performance could seem anticlimactic. In Akumal, Mexico, for another residency, she stood patiently for twelve hours through a tidal shift of just one foot.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But while Maine had been a private performance for her fellow artists, she sought to involve the local community in Akumal. She interviewed locals before her performance, asking: what is your relationship with the water? “Everyone had such a different response, but such a powerful response.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Akumal is on the Yucatán in the Caribbean, a region highly dependent on coastal tourism and therefore highly vulnerable to sea level rise. According to the \u003ca title=\"UCS - Climate Hot Map\" href=\"http://www.climatehotmap.org/global-warming-locations/cancun-mexico.html\">Union of Concerned Scientists\u003c/a>, “Relative to the size of the economy, the Caribbean is the world’s most tourism-dependent region. If climate change makes this region less appealing to tourists because hotels have diminishing beaches, or because resorts experience flooding, the region could suffer serious economic losses and growing poverty.” Forty inches of sea level rise, for example, would flood hundreds of miles of roads and a third of all Caribbean airports. The Mexican government has attempted to rebuild beaches that are already eroding, but such projects are hugely expensive and only postpone the inevitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20301\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/sarah-BTS-end-moment-e1407207221378.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-20301 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/sarah-BTS-end-moment-e1407207221378.jpg\" alt=\"spontaneously joined the artist at the end of her performance in Akumal, Mexico\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Onlookers spontaneously joined the artist at the end of her performance in Akumal, Mexico, on February 15, 2014. (Scott Brown)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>During the last hour of Sunde’s Akumal performance, a member of the audience walked out to join her, then another and another, until seven people stood together in the sea. “It was totally spontaneous and it really moved me,” she says. So in San Francisco, she’s explicitly inviting the public to join her in the water. “What I’m imaging is that people will show up whenever they can, and they’ll come and stand with me for half an hour, or as long as they want to, and then they’ll leave.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She doesn’t expect anyone to stay through the entire 13-hour, 5-foot tidal cycle, during which she will eat nothing. She will drink water, either brought by kayak or worn in a backpack. “I want it to be hard, but I don’t want to get hypothermia and die,” she says. She plans to wear a wetsuit, or possibly a drysuit—although I’m afraid your humble correspondent may have discouraged her from the warmer course of action. “In a drysuit, you couldn’t pee, could you?” said Sunde after I pointed out that particular drawback. “My God, I didn’t really think about that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Thinking Globally, Yet Intimately\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After San Francisco, Sunde will move her project around the world. The next stop will be Europe, where she plans to stand through a tidal cycle in one of the cities most intimately aware of rising seas: Amsterdam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Netherlands was fighting to stay dry centuries before the Industrial Revolution heralded anthropogenic climate change. The country is at once uniquely vulnerable, and uniquely prepared to cope. The Dutch have been keeping the sea at bay with an ever-increasingly sophisticated system of dikes, floodgates, and sea walls. But now they’ve begun to work \u003ca title=\"NPR - Dutch Embrace Floods\" href=\"http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18229027\">with the water rather than against it\u003c/a>, lowering certain dikes to allow flooding and reduce the pressure in other parts of the system. They’re even experimenting with floating housing developments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20306\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Maine-e1407206859286.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-20306 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Maine-e1407206859286.jpg\" alt=\"Low and high tide during Sunde's first 36.5 performance in Bass Harbor, Maine.\" width=\"300\" height=\"400\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Low and high tide during Sunde’s first 36.5 performance in Bass Harbor, Maine. (Maridee Slater)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Sunde’s husband grew up in the Netherlands, making this a very personal destination for the artist. In fact, she is choosing all of her sites based on intimate connections with her own life. This is art in extremely mixed media: a single human, the world ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sunde hopes her performance will grow with each iteration. Locals will join her in the water, and friends and colleagues around the world will stand with her in spirit. “There’s got to be a way to encourage collective thinking. I believe in that. If we all put our minds on something, good can happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you show up at \u003ca title=\"Wikipedia - Aquatic Park\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquatic_Park_Historic_District\">Aquatic Park\u003c/a> on August 15th between 9:26am and 10:31pm, you’ll see Sunde and her video crew. You can sit and watch from a variety of vantage points, and you can wade out and join her for a time. At 4:09 pm, high tide, the water will be at her neck.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another eight-inch rise in sea level would cover her head.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20300\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/cover-shot.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20300\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/cover-shot.jpg\" alt=\"Sarah Cameron Sunde stands through a tidal cycle in Bass Harbor, Maine\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sarah Cameron Sunde stands through a tidal cycle in Bass Harbor, Maine on August 15, 2013. (Maridee Slater)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On August 15th, performance artist Sarah Cameron Sunde will stand in the San Francisco Bay for a tidal cycle of over thirteen hours. At high tide, she’ll be covered up to her neck. This is the third iteration of her \u003ca title=\"36.5 Water Project\" href=\"http://www.365waterproject.org/\">36.5 water project\u003c/a>, which dramatizes the challenge of rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change is driving up sea levels around the globe at an accelerating rate. Tidal gauges show that San Francisco Bay has already risen by 8 inches since 1900. Scientists estimate a further 16-inch rise by 2050, and 55 inches by 2100. The \u003ca title=\"BCDC - Living with a Rising Bay\" href=\"http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/BPA/LivingWithRisingBay.pdf\">Bay Conservation and Development Commission\u003c/a> has used these numbers to project land loss of 281 and 333 square miles, respectively, including residential developments, schools and health care centers, roads and airports.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20310\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/climate_change_maps_regional55-e1407207820328.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-20310 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/climate_change_maps_regional55-e1407207820328.jpg\" alt=\"Potential inundation caused by 55-inch sea level rise by 2100.\" width=\"300\" height=\"307\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potential inundation caused by 55-inch sea level rise by 2100. San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission. Sea level rise data provided by USGS. Knowles, N. 2008. Siegel, S.W. and P. A. M. Bachand, 2002.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>These numbers are personal for Sunde, who grew up in the Bay Area. But it was the destruction Hurricane Sandy wrought on her current home of New York in 2012 that planted the seeds of the 36.5 water project. “All of a sudden I understood in a bigger way that everything is ephemeral,” she says. “In a hundred years from now, or even in my lifetime, it’s very possible that people will have to leave, that the city won’t be able to survive the change.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She took these thoughts with her to an artist residency in Maine, where she spent time on the coast, watching the tide come in. “After seeing a rock getting swallowed, I imagined a body out there in the water, and how beautiful an image that would be.” As a director, she immediately began to wonder who she could cast, then realized, “That’s insane; no one is going to do this for me. Three days later I was in the water.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>What Is Your Relationship With the Water?\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After standing through an enormous ten and a half foot tidal fluctuation in Maine, Sunde’s second performance could seem anticlimactic. In Akumal, Mexico, for another residency, she stood patiently for twelve hours through a tidal shift of just one foot.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But while Maine had been a private performance for her fellow artists, she sought to involve the local community in Akumal. She interviewed locals before her performance, asking: what is your relationship with the water? “Everyone had such a different response, but such a powerful response.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Akumal is on the Yucatán in the Caribbean, a region highly dependent on coastal tourism and therefore highly vulnerable to sea level rise. According to the \u003ca title=\"UCS - Climate Hot Map\" href=\"http://www.climatehotmap.org/global-warming-locations/cancun-mexico.html\">Union of Concerned Scientists\u003c/a>, “Relative to the size of the economy, the Caribbean is the world’s most tourism-dependent region. If climate change makes this region less appealing to tourists because hotels have diminishing beaches, or because resorts experience flooding, the region could suffer serious economic losses and growing poverty.” Forty inches of sea level rise, for example, would flood hundreds of miles of roads and a third of all Caribbean airports. The Mexican government has attempted to rebuild beaches that are already eroding, but such projects are hugely expensive and only postpone the inevitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20301\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/sarah-BTS-end-moment-e1407207221378.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-20301 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/sarah-BTS-end-moment-e1407207221378.jpg\" alt=\"spontaneously joined the artist at the end of her performance in Akumal, Mexico\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Onlookers spontaneously joined the artist at the end of her performance in Akumal, Mexico, on February 15, 2014. (Scott Brown)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>During the last hour of Sunde’s Akumal performance, a member of the audience walked out to join her, then another and another, until seven people stood together in the sea. “It was totally spontaneous and it really moved me,” she says. So in San Francisco, she’s explicitly inviting the public to join her in the water. “What I’m imaging is that people will show up whenever they can, and they’ll come and stand with me for half an hour, or as long as they want to, and then they’ll leave.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She doesn’t expect anyone to stay through the entire 13-hour, 5-foot tidal cycle, during which she will eat nothing. She will drink water, either brought by kayak or worn in a backpack. “I want it to be hard, but I don’t want to get hypothermia and die,” she says. She plans to wear a wetsuit, or possibly a drysuit—although I’m afraid your humble correspondent may have discouraged her from the warmer course of action. “In a drysuit, you couldn’t pee, could you?” said Sunde after I pointed out that particular drawback. “My God, I didn’t really think about that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Thinking Globally, Yet Intimately\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After San Francisco, Sunde will move her project around the world. The next stop will be Europe, where she plans to stand through a tidal cycle in one of the cities most intimately aware of rising seas: Amsterdam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Netherlands was fighting to stay dry centuries before the Industrial Revolution heralded anthropogenic climate change. The country is at once uniquely vulnerable, and uniquely prepared to cope. The Dutch have been keeping the sea at bay with an ever-increasingly sophisticated system of dikes, floodgates, and sea walls. But now they’ve begun to work \u003ca title=\"NPR - Dutch Embrace Floods\" href=\"http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18229027\">with the water rather than against it\u003c/a>, lowering certain dikes to allow flooding and reduce the pressure in other parts of the system. They’re even experimenting with floating housing developments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20306\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Maine-e1407206859286.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-20306 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Maine-e1407206859286.jpg\" alt=\"Low and high tide during Sunde's first 36.5 performance in Bass Harbor, Maine.\" width=\"300\" height=\"400\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Low and high tide during Sunde’s first 36.5 performance in Bass Harbor, Maine. (Maridee Slater)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Sunde’s husband grew up in the Netherlands, making this a very personal destination for the artist. In fact, she is choosing all of her sites based on intimate connections with her own life. This is art in extremely mixed media: a single human, the world ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sunde hopes her performance will grow with each iteration. Locals will join her in the water, and friends and colleagues around the world will stand with her in spirit. “There’s got to be a way to encourage collective thinking. I believe in that. If we all put our minds on something, good can happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you show up at \u003ca title=\"Wikipedia - Aquatic Park\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquatic_Park_Historic_District\">Aquatic Park\u003c/a> on August 15th between 9:26am and 10:31pm, you’ll see Sunde and her video crew. You can sit and watch from a variety of vantage points, and you can wade out and join her for a time. At 4:09 pm, high tide, the water will be at her neck.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another eight-inch rise in sea level would cover her head.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Recent Talk on Sea Level Rise Stresses Need for Acceptance and Adaptation",
"headTitle": "Recent Talk on Sea Level Rise Stresses Need for Acceptance and Adaptation | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18980\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/photo7-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-18980 size-large\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/photo7-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"San Francisco at sunset from the Alameda Oakland Ferry.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">San Francisco at sunset from the San Francisco Bay Ferry.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On a beautiful summer day last week, we took the late afternoon ferry across the bay to hear oceanographer John Englander speak about sea level rise at the Aquarium of the Bay in San Francisco. His talk, “Melting Ice, Rising Seas and Shifting Shorelines: The New Normal,” pointed to the sobering realities ahead. Rather than being stymied by the potentially overwhelming, unprecedented circumstances ahead of us though, Englander called us to rise to the occasion with innovative ways to adapt and embrace this new reality. With a mixture of humor and solid science, Englander also encouraged us to do everything possible to reduce CO2 levels and slow the global warming trend.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“\u003cstrong>Sea level will keep rising even if everyone on the planet is 100% green and sustainable.\u003c/strong> In fact, even if we somehow magically figured out how to make energy without any carbon emissions, and capped CO2 levels at the current 400 ppm, the oceans will still get higher, changing our coastlines. These are the facts.” — \u003ca title=\"John Englander's website\" href=\"http://www.johnenglander.net/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Englander\u003c/a>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Englander relayed that within decades, not hundreds of years, we’ll be living with a new reality: the North Pole will be ice-free. This, however, will not raise sea levels much as its ice that’s already floating on water. The potential upside, Englander noted with a wry smile, was more direct global shipping routes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18982\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 288px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/800px-Diagram_showing_ten_indicators_of_global_warming-288x152.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-18982\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/800px-Diagram_showing_ten_indicators_of_global_warming-288x152.png\" alt=\"Ten indicators of global warming: science shows we've got all ten happening right now. (NOAA)\" width=\"288\" height=\"152\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ten indicators of global warming: science shows we’ve got all ten happening right now. (\u003ca title=\"NOAA graphic of global warming indicators, Wikimedia\" href=\"http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Diagram_showing_ten_indicators_of_global_warming.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The real concern he expressed was the melting of the glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland where ice is currently supported on landmasses. That ice will flow into the sea and inevitably raise sea levels around the globe. This excellent five-minute video, “\u003ca title=\"Meltwater Pulse 2B, Youtube\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71l9lzLsBRc&feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Meltwater Pulse 2B,\u003c/a>” from Yale Climate Forum explains what scientists are projecting about these glacier melt rates based on their research.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we took the ferry back across the bay, our vantage point at nearly water level helped us look at the shorelines and areas we know so well with a new perspective. Englander’s presentation was a keen reminder that much work remains to create short and long term plans to adapt to higher sea levels, as individuals, cities and regions. The\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18981\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 163px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/Earth_apollo17-163x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-18981\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/Earth_apollo17-163x162.jpg\" alt=\"The South Pole as seen from Appolo 17 in December 1974. (NASA)\" width=\"163\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The South Pole as seen from Apollo 17 in December 1974; there is less ice now. (\u003ca title=\"Apollo 17 image of South Pole, Wikimedia\" href=\"http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Earth_apollo17.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>setting sun blazed behind the beautiful city and bridges, just as it will many years into the future. It’s up to us to take action now to create and secure a future where we can live with the circumstances we’ve created: the “New Normal” of higher sea levels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You can catch the major points of Englander’s talk on this eleven minute TEDx Talk, “\u003ca title=\"Sea Level Rise: Fact and Fiction with John Englander, Youtube\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH8Q8Ki9fCA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sea Level Rise – Fact & Fiction\u003c/a>.” Englander also has a compelling book available, “\u003ca title=\"High Tide on Main Street website\" href=\"http://hightideonmainstreet.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">High Tide on Main Street\u003c/a>,” as well as a good compilation of other resources on his \u003ca title=\"Recommended Resources, John Englander website\" href=\"http://www.johnenglander.net/recommended-resources\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">website\u003c/a> including books, other websites and climate change research.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18980\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/photo7-1024x768.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-18980 size-large\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/photo7-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"San Francisco at sunset from the Alameda Oakland Ferry.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">San Francisco at sunset from the San Francisco Bay Ferry.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On a beautiful summer day last week, we took the late afternoon ferry across the bay to hear oceanographer John Englander speak about sea level rise at the Aquarium of the Bay in San Francisco. His talk, “Melting Ice, Rising Seas and Shifting Shorelines: The New Normal,” pointed to the sobering realities ahead. 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These are the facts.” — \u003ca title=\"John Englander's website\" href=\"http://www.johnenglander.net/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Englander\u003c/a>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Englander relayed that within decades, not hundreds of years, we’ll be living with a new reality: the North Pole will be ice-free. This, however, will not raise sea levels much as its ice that’s already floating on water. The potential upside, Englander noted with a wry smile, was more direct global shipping routes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18982\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 288px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/800px-Diagram_showing_ten_indicators_of_global_warming-288x152.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-18982\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/800px-Diagram_showing_ten_indicators_of_global_warming-288x152.png\" alt=\"Ten indicators of global warming: science shows we've got all ten happening right now. (NOAA)\" width=\"288\" height=\"152\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ten indicators of global warming: science shows we’ve got all ten happening right now. (\u003ca title=\"NOAA graphic of global warming indicators, Wikimedia\" href=\"http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Diagram_showing_ten_indicators_of_global_warming.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The real concern he expressed was the melting of the glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland where ice is currently supported on landmasses. That ice will flow into the sea and inevitably raise sea levels around the globe. This excellent five-minute video, “\u003ca title=\"Meltwater Pulse 2B, Youtube\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71l9lzLsBRc&feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Meltwater Pulse 2B,\u003c/a>” from Yale Climate Forum explains what scientists are projecting about these glacier melt rates based on their research.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we took the ferry back across the bay, our vantage point at nearly water level helped us look at the shorelines and areas we know so well with a new perspective. Englander’s presentation was a keen reminder that much work remains to create short and long term plans to adapt to higher sea levels, as individuals, cities and regions. The\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18981\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 163px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/Earth_apollo17-163x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-18981\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/Earth_apollo17-163x162.jpg\" alt=\"The South Pole as seen from Appolo 17 in December 1974. (NASA)\" width=\"163\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The South Pole as seen from Apollo 17 in December 1974; there is less ice now. (\u003ca title=\"Apollo 17 image of South Pole, Wikimedia\" href=\"http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Earth_apollo17.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>setting sun blazed behind the beautiful city and bridges, just as it will many years into the future. It’s up to us to take action now to create and secure a future where we can live with the circumstances we’ve created: the “New Normal” of higher sea levels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You can catch the major points of Englander’s talk on this eleven minute TEDx Talk, “\u003ca title=\"Sea Level Rise: Fact and Fiction with John Englander, Youtube\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH8Q8Ki9fCA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sea Level Rise – Fact & Fiction\u003c/a>.” Englander also has a compelling book available, “\u003ca title=\"High Tide on Main Street website\" href=\"http://hightideonmainstreet.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">High Tide on Main Street\u003c/a>,” as well as a good compilation of other resources on his \u003ca title=\"Recommended Resources, John Englander website\" href=\"http://www.johnenglander.net/recommended-resources\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">website\u003c/a> including books, other websites and climate change research.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Berkeley Considers CO2 Warning Labels at Gas Pumps",
"headTitle": "Berkeley Considers CO2 Warning Labels at Gas Pumps | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18370\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/gaspump_hosetalker2-e1402694020933.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-18370 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/gaspump_hosetalker2-e1402694020933.jpg\" alt=\"A working concept of a gas pump climate change warning labels that the City of Berkeley is considering. (Courtesy 350 Bay Area)\" width=\"640\" height=\"361\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A working concept of gas pump climate change warning labels that the City of Berkeley is considering. (Courtesy Raymond Pajek)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The City of Berkeley is considering requiring gas stations to display climate change warning labels on gas pumps. Environmental group \u003ca href=\"http://www.350bayarea.org/\">350 Bay Area\u003c/a>, which is leading the “Beyond The Pump” campaign, says the goal is to inform the public about the harmful effects of CO2 emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have to change the social context of burning gasoline,” says Jamie Brooks, with 350 Bay Area. Putting messages at the point of sale of gas will influence human behavior, he says. He compared the proposed stickers to the warning labels on cigarettes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18384\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 298px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/Gas-Label-cropped-image1.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-18384 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/Gas-Label-cropped-image1.jpg\" alt=\"A working concept of Berkeley's gas pump warning label. (Courtesy Raymond Pajek)\" width=\"298\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A working concept of Berkeley’s gas pump warning label. (Credit: 350 Bay Area)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The Western States Petroleum Association sent \u003ca href=\"http://www.ci.berkeley.ca.us/uploadedFiles/Planning_and_Development/Level_3_-_Commissions/Commission_for_Community_Environmental_Advisory/2014%2006%2012_CEAC_AGN_Item%20XII.b.pdf\">a letter\u003c/a> to the City of Berkeley arguing that the ordinance is unconstitutional. The oil lobby group says it would violate a gas station owner’s right to free speech by compelling them to display statements about “alleged” impacts of global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But 350 members say the labels would simply cite state laws, such as AB 32, which state that emissions are harmful to humans and the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We feel that the message is accurate and noncontroversial,” said Jack Fleck, a retired transportation engineer and 350 Bay Area member. “It is simply a fact that the state has found that greenhouse gases pose a serious threat to the public health.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Berkeley’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.ci.berkeley.ca.us/Community_Environmental_Advisory_Commission/\">Community Environmental Advisory Commission\u003c/a> voted Thursday in favor of drafting an ordinance. The city council could vote on the proposal as early as this fall.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Environmentalists want Berkeley drivers to see a connection between pumping gas and dumping carbon into the atmosphere.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18370\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/gaspump_hosetalker2-e1402694020933.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-18370 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/gaspump_hosetalker2-e1402694020933.jpg\" alt=\"A working concept of a gas pump climate change warning labels that the City of Berkeley is considering. (Courtesy 350 Bay Area)\" width=\"640\" height=\"361\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A working concept of gas pump climate change warning labels that the City of Berkeley is considering. (Courtesy Raymond Pajek)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The City of Berkeley is considering requiring gas stations to display climate change warning labels on gas pumps. Environmental group \u003ca href=\"http://www.350bayarea.org/\">350 Bay Area\u003c/a>, which is leading the “Beyond The Pump” campaign, says the goal is to inform the public about the harmful effects of CO2 emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have to change the social context of burning gasoline,” says Jamie Brooks, with 350 Bay Area. Putting messages at the point of sale of gas will influence human behavior, he says. He compared the proposed stickers to the warning labels on cigarettes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_18384\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 298px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/Gas-Label-cropped-image1.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-18384 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/Gas-Label-cropped-image1.jpg\" alt=\"A working concept of Berkeley's gas pump warning label. (Courtesy Raymond Pajek)\" width=\"298\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A working concept of Berkeley’s gas pump warning label. (Credit: 350 Bay Area)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The Western States Petroleum Association sent \u003ca href=\"http://www.ci.berkeley.ca.us/uploadedFiles/Planning_and_Development/Level_3_-_Commissions/Commission_for_Community_Environmental_Advisory/2014%2006%2012_CEAC_AGN_Item%20XII.b.pdf\">a letter\u003c/a> to the City of Berkeley arguing that the ordinance is unconstitutional. The oil lobby group says it would violate a gas station owner’s right to free speech by compelling them to display statements about “alleged” impacts of global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But 350 members say the labels would simply cite state laws, such as AB 32, which state that emissions are harmful to humans and the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We feel that the message is accurate and noncontroversial,” said Jack Fleck, a retired transportation engineer and 350 Bay Area member. “It is simply a fact that the state has found that greenhouse gases pose a serious threat to the public health.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Berkeley’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.ci.berkeley.ca.us/Community_Environmental_Advisory_Commission/\">Community Environmental Advisory Commission\u003c/a> voted Thursday in favor of drafting an ordinance. The city council could vote on the proposal as early as this fall.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Famous Sunset Paintings Reflect Key Air Pollution Events From the Past",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17934\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/sf-sunset.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17934\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/sf-sunset.jpg\" alt=\"San Francisco sunset\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A San Francisco sunset. (KP Tripathi/\u003ca title=\"Flickr - KP Tripathi\" href=\"https://www.flickr.com/photos/kptripathi/\">Flickr\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Last month the Bay Area saw 2014’s first \u003ca title=\"SF Gate - Spare the Air\" href=\"http://blog.sfgate.com/stew/2014/05/12/spare-the-air-advisory-issued-for-bay-area/\">Spare the Air alert\u003c/a>, even as we face an extra-dry \u003ca title=\"NBC - Gov Warns of Fire Season\" href=\"http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Gov-Jerry-Brown-Says-California-Bracing-for-Its-Toughest-Fire-Season-259736811.html\">fire season\u003c/a> with prospects of worsening air quality. On the bright side, we’re in for some beautiful sunsets! Air pollution scatters light, producing vivid reds that have been faithfully captured by landscape painters over the last 500 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers in Greece \u003ca title=\"J Atmos Chem Phys - Environmental Information in Paintings\" href=\"http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/2987/2014/acp-14-2987-2014.pdf\">recently found\u003c/a> that sunset paintings by artists such as \u003ca title=\"J.M.W. Turner - Wikipedia\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._M._W._Turner\">J.M.W. Turner\u003c/a> and \u003ca title=\"Edgar Degas\" href=\"http://www.edgar-degas.org/\">Edgar Degas\u003c/a> accurately reflect contemporary pollution events—specifically, the 54 major volcanic eruptions since 1522. As the industrial age dawned and man-made particles began to fill the air, the paintings tracked that too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Volcano vs. Human\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17907\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 206px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/degas-race-horses-206x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-17907\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/degas-race-horses-206x162.jpg\" alt='Edgar Degas, \"Race Horses\"' width=\"206\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">“Race Horses,” painted by Edgar Degas in 1885, shows a sky reddened by volcanic ash from Krakatoa.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Volcanoes were polluting the air and altering the global climate long before we humans got in on the act—and they haven’t slowed down since our arrival. Fallout from the catastrophic \u003ca title=\"Wikipedia - 1883 Krakatoa\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa\">1883 explosion of Krakatoa\u003c/a> in Indonesia colored skies on the other side of the world and cooled the entire planet. But these dramatic effects are short-lived; after a few years the ash clears and the weather returns to normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Human air pollution is more insidious, a gradual accumulation of emissions rather than a great big geologic belch. But the changes wrought are harder to reverse. Generation after generation of city-dwellers suffer from breathing ground-level contaminants, while other chemicals contribute to the greenhouse effect and waft up to corrode the ozone layer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Christos S. Zerefos\" href=\"http://www.zerefos.gr/en/\">Christos S. Zerefos\u003c/a>, a professor at the Academy of Athens who led the study on pollution in paintings, actually began his career researching \u003ca title=\"Ozone Depletion - Wikipedia\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion\">ozone depletion\u003c/a>. His work helped bring the resulting increase in UV radiation to the world’s attention. This latest paper may seem whimsical by contrast, but in fact a new source of historical data could help guide today’s climate models.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Gleaning Science from Art\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17908\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 219px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/greifswald-moonlight-219x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-17908\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/greifswald-moonlight-219x162.jpg\" alt='\"Griefswald in the Moonlight,\" painted by Caspar David Friedrich' width=\"219\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">“Griefswald in the Moonlight,” painted by Caspar David Friedrich in 1817, with averaged R/G ratios indicating air pollution levels. (Zerefos et al., 2014, Atmos. Chem. Phys.)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>How do you turn paintings into data? Zerefos and his colleagues started with a digitized version of each painting. They selected a rectangle of cloudless sky at the horizon, and calculated the average amount of red, green, and blue within. Then they divided red by green, because we humans recognize “redness” in part \u003ca title=\"Color vision opponent process - Wikipedia\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opponent_process\">by contrasting it\u003c/a> with “greenness.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This R/G ratio was then used to calculate pollution: specifically, how many tiny particles called aerosols are suspended in the air. Aerosols are produced both by nature (dust storms, volcanoes, wildfires) and by humans (cars, factories, land-clearing fires). Complicating matters is the fact that human-induced climate change can increase dust storms and wildfires . . . Fortunately, the causes don’t matter to the calculation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Aerosol Optical Depth - NASA\" href=\"http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=MODAL2_M_AER_OD\">Aerosol optical depth\u003c/a>, or AOD, simply measures how polluted the air is at a given time and place, regardless of the pollution’s origin. The researchers were able to use the R/G ratios from the sunset paintings to predict the AOD of the air at the time of painting: a redder sunset means a higher AOD.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Finding Proof in Ice and Dust\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These AOD values were then compared to independent measurements of atmospheric pollution that covered the same time range as the paintings, such as \u003ca title=\"Ice Cores 101\" href=\"http://climatechange.umaine.edu/icecores/IceCore/Ice_Core_101.html\">ice cores\u003c/a>. Aerosols are deposited in snow on glaciers, which turns into a new layer of ice. Drilling down from the surface to sample these deeper, older layers provides information about historical air quality—which matched the data from the paintings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17909\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 242px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/1024px-Sakurajima_at_Sunset-242x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-17909\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/1024px-Sakurajima_at_Sunset-242x162.jpg\" alt=\"Sakurajima, one of the most active volcanoes in the world\" width=\"242\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sakurajima, one of the most active volcanoes in the world. (Kimon Berlin/\u003ca title=\"Flickr - Kimon Berlin\" href=\"https://www.flickr.com/photos/kimon/\">Flickr\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Zerefos and his colleagues also tested their painting-to-pollution technique with a modern experiment. While a dust cloud from the Sahara was passing through the sky, they asked a contemporary landscape painter to record the sunset. He did it again after the dust cloud had passed. Although the artist was unaware of the atmospheric changes, the R/G ratios in his two paintings matched independent measurements of AOD during and after the dust cloud.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Paintings as a new source of historical data could help scientists better understand the effects of current and future pollution, including climate change. The amount of aerosols in the atmosphere is integral to climate models. A new way of estimating aerosols in the past might help make more accurate predictions for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And the fact that Edgar Degas accidentally encoded atmospheric data in “Race Horses” is just really darn cool.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17934\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/sf-sunset.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17934\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/06/sf-sunset.jpg\" alt=\"San Francisco sunset\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A San Francisco sunset. (KP Tripathi/\u003ca title=\"Flickr - KP Tripathi\" href=\"https://www.flickr.com/photos/kptripathi/\">Flickr\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Last month the Bay Area saw 2014’s first \u003ca title=\"SF Gate - Spare the Air\" href=\"http://blog.sfgate.com/stew/2014/05/12/spare-the-air-advisory-issued-for-bay-area/\">Spare the Air alert\u003c/a>, even as we face an extra-dry \u003ca title=\"NBC - Gov Warns of Fire Season\" href=\"http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Gov-Jerry-Brown-Says-California-Bracing-for-Its-Toughest-Fire-Season-259736811.html\">fire season\u003c/a> with prospects of worsening air quality. On the bright side, we’re in for some beautiful sunsets! Air pollution scatters light, producing vivid reds that have been faithfully captured by landscape painters over the last 500 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers in Greece \u003ca title=\"J Atmos Chem Phys - Environmental Information in Paintings\" href=\"http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/2987/2014/acp-14-2987-2014.pdf\">recently found\u003c/a> that sunset paintings by artists such as \u003ca title=\"J.M.W. Turner - Wikipedia\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._M._W._Turner\">J.M.W. Turner\u003c/a> and \u003ca title=\"Edgar Degas\" href=\"http://www.edgar-degas.org/\">Edgar Degas\u003c/a> accurately reflect contemporary pollution events—specifically, the 54 major volcanic eruptions since 1522. As the industrial age dawned and man-made particles began to fill the air, the paintings tracked that too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Volcano vs. Human\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17907\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 206px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/degas-race-horses-206x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-17907\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/degas-race-horses-206x162.jpg\" alt='Edgar Degas, \"Race Horses\"' width=\"206\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">“Race Horses,” painted by Edgar Degas in 1885, shows a sky reddened by volcanic ash from Krakatoa.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Volcanoes were polluting the air and altering the global climate long before we humans got in on the act—and they haven’t slowed down since our arrival. Fallout from the catastrophic \u003ca title=\"Wikipedia - 1883 Krakatoa\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa\">1883 explosion of Krakatoa\u003c/a> in Indonesia colored skies on the other side of the world and cooled the entire planet. But these dramatic effects are short-lived; after a few years the ash clears and the weather returns to normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Human air pollution is more insidious, a gradual accumulation of emissions rather than a great big geologic belch. But the changes wrought are harder to reverse. Generation after generation of city-dwellers suffer from breathing ground-level contaminants, while other chemicals contribute to the greenhouse effect and waft up to corrode the ozone layer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Christos S. Zerefos\" href=\"http://www.zerefos.gr/en/\">Christos S. Zerefos\u003c/a>, a professor at the Academy of Athens who led the study on pollution in paintings, actually began his career researching \u003ca title=\"Ozone Depletion - Wikipedia\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion\">ozone depletion\u003c/a>. His work helped bring the resulting increase in UV radiation to the world’s attention. This latest paper may seem whimsical by contrast, but in fact a new source of historical data could help guide today’s climate models.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Gleaning Science from Art\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17908\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 219px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/greifswald-moonlight-219x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-17908\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/greifswald-moonlight-219x162.jpg\" alt='\"Griefswald in the Moonlight,\" painted by Caspar David Friedrich' width=\"219\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">“Griefswald in the Moonlight,” painted by Caspar David Friedrich in 1817, with averaged R/G ratios indicating air pollution levels. (Zerefos et al., 2014, Atmos. Chem. Phys.)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>How do you turn paintings into data? Zerefos and his colleagues started with a digitized version of each painting. They selected a rectangle of cloudless sky at the horizon, and calculated the average amount of red, green, and blue within. Then they divided red by green, because we humans recognize “redness” in part \u003ca title=\"Color vision opponent process - Wikipedia\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opponent_process\">by contrasting it\u003c/a> with “greenness.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This R/G ratio was then used to calculate pollution: specifically, how many tiny particles called aerosols are suspended in the air. Aerosols are produced both by nature (dust storms, volcanoes, wildfires) and by humans (cars, factories, land-clearing fires). Complicating matters is the fact that human-induced climate change can increase dust storms and wildfires . . . Fortunately, the causes don’t matter to the calculation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Aerosol Optical Depth - NASA\" href=\"http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=MODAL2_M_AER_OD\">Aerosol optical depth\u003c/a>, or AOD, simply measures how polluted the air is at a given time and place, regardless of the pollution’s origin. The researchers were able to use the R/G ratios from the sunset paintings to predict the AOD of the air at the time of painting: a redder sunset means a higher AOD.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Finding Proof in Ice and Dust\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These AOD values were then compared to independent measurements of atmospheric pollution that covered the same time range as the paintings, such as \u003ca title=\"Ice Cores 101\" href=\"http://climatechange.umaine.edu/icecores/IceCore/Ice_Core_101.html\">ice cores\u003c/a>. Aerosols are deposited in snow on glaciers, which turns into a new layer of ice. Drilling down from the surface to sample these deeper, older layers provides information about historical air quality—which matched the data from the paintings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17909\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 242px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/1024px-Sakurajima_at_Sunset-242x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-17909\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/1024px-Sakurajima_at_Sunset-242x162.jpg\" alt=\"Sakurajima, one of the most active volcanoes in the world\" width=\"242\" height=\"162\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sakurajima, one of the most active volcanoes in the world. (Kimon Berlin/\u003ca title=\"Flickr - Kimon Berlin\" href=\"https://www.flickr.com/photos/kimon/\">Flickr\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Zerefos and his colleagues also tested their painting-to-pollution technique with a modern experiment. While a dust cloud from the Sahara was passing through the sky, they asked a contemporary landscape painter to record the sunset. He did it again after the dust cloud had passed. Although the artist was unaware of the atmospheric changes, the R/G ratios in his two paintings matched independent measurements of AOD during and after the dust cloud.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Paintings as a new source of historical data could help scientists better understand the effects of current and future pollution, including climate change. The amount of aerosols in the atmosphere is integral to climate models. A new way of estimating aerosols in the past might help make more accurate predictions for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And the fact that Edgar Degas accidentally encoded atmospheric data in “Race Horses” is just really darn cool.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"headTitle": "2013: Progress, But Long Road Ahead to California Climate Goals | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>2013 was a pivotal year for California’s efforts to confront the increasingly ominous threats from climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nation’s broadest cap-and-trade program for carbon pollution kicked in, and Governor Jerry Brown joined in two \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/10/28/climate-pact-west-coast-states-bc-vow-to-step-up-attack-on-warming/\">new multi-state pacts\u003c/a> aimed at curbing emissions. But seven years after passing its landmark climate law, California’s journey toward attaining its climate goals has just begun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12580\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12580\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/traffic.jpg\" alt=\"A key way for California to cut emissions is by boosting low- and zero-emission vehicles. (Deborah Svoboda/KQED) \" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A key way for California to cut emissions is by boosting low- and zero-emission vehicles. (Deborah Svoboda/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>After years of effort by California policymakers to shrink the state’s carbon footprint, the darnedest thing happened: the economy rebounded from its three-year recession—and \u003ca title=\"Bloomberg - post\" href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-04/california-emissions-climb-in-2012-on-low-nuclear-hydro-supply.html\">so did greenhouse gas emissions\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Over the past year, for instance, we’ve begun to see that emissions are rising again,” says Stanley Young with the California Air Resources Board. “But the interesting thing is that they are not rising as fast as the California economy is growing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young’s agency is charged with \u003ca title=\"CARB - scoping plan\" href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm\">developing rules\u003c/a> to meet the state’s legislated mandate to cut carbon emissions back to 1990 levels, by 2020. Young is not deterred by the post-recession set-back.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We will be able to make our 2020 goals,” he said in an interview. “That is clear.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s not so clear is what happens after that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our best guess is that we are well on our way to meeting the 2020 standard, so the policies that we have in place do seem to be sufficient for that,” says\u003ca title=\"LBNL - Greenblatt\" href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/people/jeffery-greenblatt\"> Jeff Greenblatt\u003c/a>, an energy scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. “But looking to 2030 and beyond, we’re gonna have to do more.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The 80 percent solution\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Greenblatt raised some eyebrows in early November when he \u003ca title=\"LBNL - Report\" href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/news/article/57123/estimating-policy-driven-greenh\">published projections\u003c/a> of what it will take to hit California’s long-term goal, set by executive order during the Schwarzenegger years: an 80 percent cut in emissions by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the Air Board’s Young sees it, California is on a roll: “We’re seeing far more electric vehicles on the road, for instance. That’s an important part of the plan.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But even with the recent impressive growth of plug-in electric cars, it’s early in the game. California just\u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/10/24/california-joins-eight-state-roadmap-toward-more-electric-cars/\"> joined with seven other states\u003c/a> in a push to get 3.3 million “zero-emission” vehicles on the road by 2025. Depending on what you count, there are 25 to 30 million registered vehicles on the road right now, just in California—and Greenblatt says 80 to 90 percent would have to be zero-emission (electric or otherwise) to get to that 2050 goal, because transportation accounts for the biggest single chunk of California’s carbon footprint.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These cars are driving around all over the place, so you can’t capture the CO2 from their tailpipes and store it somewhere,” Greenblatt explained in a recent interview. “So it’s very important to be able to shift to a low-carbon energy carrier like electricity or like hydrogen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Decarbonizing your electrical outlets\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, electric cars are only as clean as the juice that powers them. Regulators say the state is on track to hit another key target for 2020: generating one-third of its electrical power from renewable sources like wind, solar and geothermal. But by Greenblatt’s reckoning, that won’t be enough for the long haul, either.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We essentially need our electricity system to run without any carbon emissions at all in 2050.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yikes. That’s 100 percent carbon-free electricity. But that daunting assertion doesn’t mean all renewable power, which is good because many experts agree that goal may not be possible. Some have calculated that \u003ca title=\"NPR - story\" href=\"http://www.npr.org/2013/12/02/248230187/slashing-fossil-fuel-consumption-comes-with-a-price\">80 percent renewables\u003c/a> may be technically feasible—but not without a major update to the electrical grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We may still need to burn some natural gas and capture its carbon emissions, so they don’t get into the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since the shutdown of Southern California Edison’s San Onofre nuclear power plant near San Diego, utilities have used natural gas to replace the carbon-free nuclear power lost from the grid. That set off alarms with environmental groups, who took to the streets in San Francisco this month, demanding that state regulators require renewable replacement power.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>An optimist in spite of the numbers\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I guess I would say, I’m an optimist but I don’t think this is gonna happen without a lot of trial and challenge, says Greenblatt, who expressed concern that his report was misconstrued in news accounts when it came out in November. He says it’s not that we can’t get to the 2050 goals. It’s that we won’t get there unless we step up our game—even beyond the aggressive policies the state has put in place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why this year, the Air Board rolled out \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2013_update/discussion_draft.pdf\">a revised playbook\u003c/a> that includes some new initiatives and suggested the state adopt new 2030 goals, moving the target a little closer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need a midpoint,” says the Air Board’s Young. “2050 is too far off to really grasp. From a broad policy perspective, we can take a look at where we need to be. But in terms of the programmatic elements, that’s a harder crystal ball.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Already, the idea of a “midterm” target is raising hackles. Some say the state’s landmark climate law has no authority after 2020. So we might need a whole new law to keep things rolling. And even the state’s pioneering cap-and-trade program remains under legal assault from industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But I refuse to give up,” says Greenblatt, who says he’s had to reassure his nine-year-old daughter that he’s working on the problem as hard as he can. “I want to live to see 2050 happen and to say we actually did this.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Despite its deserved reputation for climate leadership, California will have to hustle to make its own long-range emissions goals.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>2013 was a pivotal year for California’s efforts to confront the increasingly ominous threats from climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nation’s broadest cap-and-trade program for carbon pollution kicked in, and Governor Jerry Brown joined in two \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/10/28/climate-pact-west-coast-states-bc-vow-to-step-up-attack-on-warming/\">new multi-state pacts\u003c/a> aimed at curbing emissions. But seven years after passing its landmark climate law, California’s journey toward attaining its climate goals has just begun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12580\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12580\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/traffic.jpg\" alt=\"A key way for California to cut emissions is by boosting low- and zero-emission vehicles. (Deborah Svoboda/KQED) \" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A key way for California to cut emissions is by boosting low- and zero-emission vehicles. (Deborah Svoboda/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>After years of effort by California policymakers to shrink the state’s carbon footprint, the darnedest thing happened: the economy rebounded from its three-year recession—and \u003ca title=\"Bloomberg - post\" href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-04/california-emissions-climb-in-2012-on-low-nuclear-hydro-supply.html\">so did greenhouse gas emissions\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Over the past year, for instance, we’ve begun to see that emissions are rising again,” says Stanley Young with the California Air Resources Board. “But the interesting thing is that they are not rising as fast as the California economy is growing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young’s agency is charged with \u003ca title=\"CARB - scoping plan\" href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm\">developing rules\u003c/a> to meet the state’s legislated mandate to cut carbon emissions back to 1990 levels, by 2020. Young is not deterred by the post-recession set-back.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We will be able to make our 2020 goals,” he said in an interview. “That is clear.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s not so clear is what happens after that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our best guess is that we are well on our way to meeting the 2020 standard, so the policies that we have in place do seem to be sufficient for that,” says\u003ca title=\"LBNL - Greenblatt\" href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/people/jeffery-greenblatt\"> Jeff Greenblatt\u003c/a>, an energy scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. “But looking to 2030 and beyond, we’re gonna have to do more.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The 80 percent solution\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Greenblatt raised some eyebrows in early November when he \u003ca title=\"LBNL - Report\" href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/news/article/57123/estimating-policy-driven-greenh\">published projections\u003c/a> of what it will take to hit California’s long-term goal, set by executive order during the Schwarzenegger years: an 80 percent cut in emissions by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the Air Board’s Young sees it, California is on a roll: “We’re seeing far more electric vehicles on the road, for instance. That’s an important part of the plan.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But even with the recent impressive growth of plug-in electric cars, it’s early in the game. California just\u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/10/24/california-joins-eight-state-roadmap-toward-more-electric-cars/\"> joined with seven other states\u003c/a> in a push to get 3.3 million “zero-emission” vehicles on the road by 2025. Depending on what you count, there are 25 to 30 million registered vehicles on the road right now, just in California—and Greenblatt says 80 to 90 percent would have to be zero-emission (electric or otherwise) to get to that 2050 goal, because transportation accounts for the biggest single chunk of California’s carbon footprint.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These cars are driving around all over the place, so you can’t capture the CO2 from their tailpipes and store it somewhere,” Greenblatt explained in a recent interview. “So it’s very important to be able to shift to a low-carbon energy carrier like electricity or like hydrogen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Decarbonizing your electrical outlets\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, electric cars are only as clean as the juice that powers them. Regulators say the state is on track to hit another key target for 2020: generating one-third of its electrical power from renewable sources like wind, solar and geothermal. But by Greenblatt’s reckoning, that won’t be enough for the long haul, either.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We essentially need our electricity system to run without any carbon emissions at all in 2050.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yikes. That’s 100 percent carbon-free electricity. But that daunting assertion doesn’t mean all renewable power, which is good because many experts agree that goal may not be possible. Some have calculated that \u003ca title=\"NPR - story\" href=\"http://www.npr.org/2013/12/02/248230187/slashing-fossil-fuel-consumption-comes-with-a-price\">80 percent renewables\u003c/a> may be technically feasible—but not without a major update to the electrical grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We may still need to burn some natural gas and capture its carbon emissions, so they don’t get into the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since the shutdown of Southern California Edison’s San Onofre nuclear power plant near San Diego, utilities have used natural gas to replace the carbon-free nuclear power lost from the grid. That set off alarms with environmental groups, who took to the streets in San Francisco this month, demanding that state regulators require renewable replacement power.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>An optimist in spite of the numbers\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I guess I would say, I’m an optimist but I don’t think this is gonna happen without a lot of trial and challenge, says Greenblatt, who expressed concern that his report was misconstrued in news accounts when it came out in November. He says it’s not that we can’t get to the 2050 goals. It’s that we won’t get there unless we step up our game—even beyond the aggressive policies the state has put in place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why this year, the Air Board rolled out \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2013_update/discussion_draft.pdf\">a revised playbook\u003c/a> that includes some new initiatives and suggested the state adopt new 2030 goals, moving the target a little closer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need a midpoint,” says the Air Board’s Young. “2050 is too far off to really grasp. From a broad policy perspective, we can take a look at where we need to be. But in terms of the programmatic elements, that’s a harder crystal ball.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Already, the idea of a “midterm” target is raising hackles. Some say the state’s landmark climate law has no authority after 2020. So we might need a whole new law to keep things rolling. And even the state’s pioneering cap-and-trade program remains under legal assault from industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But I refuse to give up,” says Greenblatt, who says he’s had to reassure his nine-year-old daughter that he’s working on the problem as hard as he can. “I want to live to see 2050 happen and to say we actually did this.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Memo to Bay Area Sea Rise Planners: Situation Serious But Not Hopeless",
"headTitle": "Memo to Bay Area Sea Rise Planners: Situation Serious But Not Hopeless | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11841\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/kingtide.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11841\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/kingtide.jpg\" alt=\"A cyclist pedals on a flooded path in Marin County during a king tide in December, 2012. (Sarah Craig/Flickr) http://www.flickr.com/photos/85951661@N08/8365001059/\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A cyclist pedals on a flooded path in Marin County during a high tide in December, 2012. (\u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/photos/85951661@N08/8365001059/\">Sarah Craig/Flickr\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The showdown with encroaching seas will be the topic when planners and others gather in San Mateo County Monday to talk about a battle plan for the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Mateo could be “ground zero” for Bay Area impacts. Congresswoman Jackie Speier, whose district includes most of San Mateo County and who is co-sponsoring the conference with county supervisor Dave Pine, lists it among the nation’s “top ten hotspots” for sea rise impacts. “We have got to get serious about anticipating that and doing our level best to prevent catastrophe,” she said in a phone interview.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to a \u003ca title=\"Pac Inst - climate\" href=\"http://www.pacinst.org/issues/climate-change-vulnerability-and-resilience/\">Pacific Institute study\u003c/a>, among California counties, San Mateo is tied with Orange County for having the biggest population at risk from rising seas. And unlike Orange County, San Mateo will get hit from both sides, with coastal erosion on the Pacific coast and more frequent flooding on the Bay side. “By the end of the century, SFO (San Francisco International Airport) will be underwater if we don’t take steps to address this,” Speier says. The question remains: what steps? \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/12/05/four-bay-area-cities-selected-as-future-models-of-resilience/\">Options abound\u003c/a>, from “hard” measures like sea walls and levees, to “soft” buffers such as expanded wetlands, to what planners euphemistically call “\u003ca title=\"NF - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2013/02/04/ocean-beach-san-francisco-master-plan/\">managed retreat\u003c/a>,” which is to say pulling things back from the shoreline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In sorting that out, local officials will get some tips from \u003ca title=\"John Englander - main\" href=\"http://www.johnenglander.net/\">John Englander\u003c/a>, whose eerily-timed book, \u003ca title=\"HTOMS - main\" href=\"http://hightideonmainstreet.com/hurricane-sandy\">\u003cem>High Tide on Main Street\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, pretty much laid out the whole scenario for Hurricane Sandy–a week before the “superstorm” hit the East Coast last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Englander calls sea level rise the “most profound change” to the planet this century. In an interview, he offered some thoughts for planners confronting the problem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Don’t let the uncertainties slow you down:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The fact that there is such a range to the projections, that official estimates say we could have 1-to-3 feet and some say 2-to-6 feet. That adds to the confusion. But the estimates, it turns out, are actually pretty cautious and I say, timid, because they don’t count some uncertainties–the tipping points, the wildcards, which is the catastrophic melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is showing signs. And methane, which is a huge accelerant to warming, and is not in the equations because we don’t know how soon it will happen. Yet methane’s escaping from the Arctic now, from the permafrost, from the sea bed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11803\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 371px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/BaySLR_grab.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11803 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/BaySLR_grab.jpeg\" alt=\"Map showing areas along the Bay that could be inundated by sea level rise\" width=\"371\" height=\"348\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map showing areas along the Bay that could be inundated by sea level rise. (Click to see a larger version from the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>“How much rise by 2100 (or 2050)” is the wrong question:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Because we don’t know how quickly things will warm…maybe we should turn the question around and say, “We know we’re gonna get three feet of sea level rise. We just don’t know for certain whether it’s gonna be by 2050 or 2150. And if we plan for three feet now and it doesn’t happen ’til 2100, we’ll be better prepared for storm surge and other events. So we just say, “How will we deal with three feet of sea level rise? Not knowing exactly when it will happen, we challenge ourselves architecturally and engineering-wise and planning-wise, to think bigger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>It’s time to “think different” about real estate:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is unprecedented. It’s never happened before in the history of human civilization. Buildings and infrastructure we amortize, typically over 30 or 40 years. Now that we know that sea level is rising…and can measure the warming and we know that [it] will rise for centuries, we need to think of coastal property almost like it’s leasehold. We just don’t know whether the lease is 50 years or 150 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>It’ll be costly no matter what:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It is gonna be hugely expensive and I think we need to start talking about that because when people say it’s gonna be very expensive to get off of coal and fossil fuels, we have to put into the equation the cost of relocating off the coast as the sea rises and the shoreline moves inland. We need to think in economic terms and I believe we should expose people to the choices and the cost because that will help us make intelligent and rational decisions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Bay Area has options:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’ll be very different out here in the Bay Area from, say, Florida. For example, Miami 200 yrs from now probably won’t be there, because it’s only six feet above sea level and it’s porous limestone. Sea walls don’t work there, as I explain in my book. Here in the Bay Area–where you have a steep relief, the cliffs and so on, even though there’s one low-lying reclaimed land–the Bay Area will be here 200 years from now, even if sea level is 10 ft higher, because you will have adapted to it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Englander’s “most important” message:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If we can see where things are headed–like any situation, even if we don’t know the year–we’ll do better planning, because we can plan incrementally if we can see the end, or where things will be 50 years from now. And if we look with a little bit of vision, instead of hiding or delaying or denying something, we can probably come up with some really creative structures that will last and get a better return on investment, and secure the Bay Area’s position as very progressive and forward-thinking and not shying from technical challenge, and charting a brave new path. I think geologically and physically, as well as socially and psychologically, it’s more doable here than anyplace that I’ve visited.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Learn more:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>NOAA has an \u003ca href=\"http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slrviewer\">interactive mapping tool\u003c/a> where you can see the extent of coastal inundation at various levels of sea rise. And there are photos of encroaching seas in the Bay Area during ultra-high tide events at the \u003ca title=\"CA King Tides - main\" href=\"http://www.californiakingtides.org/\">California King Tides Photo Initiative\u003c/a> website.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11841\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/kingtide.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11841\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/kingtide.jpg\" alt=\"A cyclist pedals on a flooded path in Marin County during a king tide in December, 2012. (Sarah Craig/Flickr) http://www.flickr.com/photos/85951661@N08/8365001059/\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A cyclist pedals on a flooded path in Marin County during a high tide in December, 2012. (\u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/photos/85951661@N08/8365001059/\">Sarah Craig/Flickr\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The showdown with encroaching seas will be the topic when planners and others gather in San Mateo County Monday to talk about a battle plan for the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Mateo could be “ground zero” for Bay Area impacts. Congresswoman Jackie Speier, whose district includes most of San Mateo County and who is co-sponsoring the conference with county supervisor Dave Pine, lists it among the nation’s “top ten hotspots” for sea rise impacts. “We have got to get serious about anticipating that and doing our level best to prevent catastrophe,” she said in a phone interview.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to a \u003ca title=\"Pac Inst - climate\" href=\"http://www.pacinst.org/issues/climate-change-vulnerability-and-resilience/\">Pacific Institute study\u003c/a>, among California counties, San Mateo is tied with Orange County for having the biggest population at risk from rising seas. And unlike Orange County, San Mateo will get hit from both sides, with coastal erosion on the Pacific coast and more frequent flooding on the Bay side. “By the end of the century, SFO (San Francisco International Airport) will be underwater if we don’t take steps to address this,” Speier says. The question remains: what steps? \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/12/05/four-bay-area-cities-selected-as-future-models-of-resilience/\">Options abound\u003c/a>, from “hard” measures like sea walls and levees, to “soft” buffers such as expanded wetlands, to what planners euphemistically call “\u003ca title=\"NF - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2013/02/04/ocean-beach-san-francisco-master-plan/\">managed retreat\u003c/a>,” which is to say pulling things back from the shoreline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In sorting that out, local officials will get some tips from \u003ca title=\"John Englander - main\" href=\"http://www.johnenglander.net/\">John Englander\u003c/a>, whose eerily-timed book, \u003ca title=\"HTOMS - main\" href=\"http://hightideonmainstreet.com/hurricane-sandy\">\u003cem>High Tide on Main Street\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, pretty much laid out the whole scenario for Hurricane Sandy–a week before the “superstorm” hit the East Coast last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Englander calls sea level rise the “most profound change” to the planet this century. In an interview, he offered some thoughts for planners confronting the problem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Don’t let the uncertainties slow you down:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The fact that there is such a range to the projections, that official estimates say we could have 1-to-3 feet and some say 2-to-6 feet. That adds to the confusion. But the estimates, it turns out, are actually pretty cautious and I say, timid, because they don’t count some uncertainties–the tipping points, the wildcards, which is the catastrophic melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is showing signs. And methane, which is a huge accelerant to warming, and is not in the equations because we don’t know how soon it will happen. Yet methane’s escaping from the Arctic now, from the permafrost, from the sea bed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11803\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 371px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/BaySLR_grab.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11803 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/BaySLR_grab.jpeg\" alt=\"Map showing areas along the Bay that could be inundated by sea level rise\" width=\"371\" height=\"348\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map showing areas along the Bay that could be inundated by sea level rise. (Click to see a larger version from the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>“How much rise by 2100 (or 2050)” is the wrong question:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Because we don’t know how quickly things will warm…maybe we should turn the question around and say, “We know we’re gonna get three feet of sea level rise. We just don’t know for certain whether it’s gonna be by 2050 or 2150. And if we plan for three feet now and it doesn’t happen ’til 2100, we’ll be better prepared for storm surge and other events. So we just say, “How will we deal with three feet of sea level rise? Not knowing exactly when it will happen, we challenge ourselves architecturally and engineering-wise and planning-wise, to think bigger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>It’s time to “think different” about real estate:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is unprecedented. It’s never happened before in the history of human civilization. Buildings and infrastructure we amortize, typically over 30 or 40 years. Now that we know that sea level is rising…and can measure the warming and we know that [it] will rise for centuries, we need to think of coastal property almost like it’s leasehold. We just don’t know whether the lease is 50 years or 150 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>It’ll be costly no matter what:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It is gonna be hugely expensive and I think we need to start talking about that because when people say it’s gonna be very expensive to get off of coal and fossil fuels, we have to put into the equation the cost of relocating off the coast as the sea rises and the shoreline moves inland. We need to think in economic terms and I believe we should expose people to the choices and the cost because that will help us make intelligent and rational decisions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Bay Area has options:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’ll be very different out here in the Bay Area from, say, Florida. For example, Miami 200 yrs from now probably won’t be there, because it’s only six feet above sea level and it’s porous limestone. Sea walls don’t work there, as I explain in my book. Here in the Bay Area–where you have a steep relief, the cliffs and so on, even though there’s one low-lying reclaimed land–the Bay Area will be here 200 years from now, even if sea level is 10 ft higher, because you will have adapted to it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Englander’s “most important” message:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If we can see where things are headed–like any situation, even if we don’t know the year–we’ll do better planning, because we can plan incrementally if we can see the end, or where things will be 50 years from now. And if we look with a little bit of vision, instead of hiding or delaying or denying something, we can probably come up with some really creative structures that will last and get a better return on investment, and secure the Bay Area’s position as very progressive and forward-thinking and not shying from technical challenge, and charting a brave new path. I think geologically and physically, as well as socially and psychologically, it’s more doable here than anyplace that I’ve visited.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Learn more:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>NOAA has an \u003ca href=\"http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slrviewer\">interactive mapping tool\u003c/a> where you can see the extent of coastal inundation at various levels of sea rise. And there are photos of encroaching seas in the Bay Area during ultra-high tide events at the \u003ca title=\"CA King Tides - main\" href=\"http://www.californiakingtides.org/\">California King Tides Photo Initiative\u003c/a> website.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_10766\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/anticecore.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10766\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10766\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/anticecore.jpg\" alt=\"scientist checks an ice core\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Michelle Koutnik of the University of Copenhagen’s Center for Ice and Climate prepares an Antarctic ice core for transport to the lab. NASA photo by Lora Koenig\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A large team of Antarctic researchers has published instructions for locating the oldest available samples of the ancient atmosphere. If their thinking is correct, we ought to be able to retrieve air from Antarctica’s ice sheets that’s almost twice as old as what we have today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ancient ice is a crucially important source of information about global climates of the past. Although the ice itself is a valuable record of regional conditions, the real prize is the air bubbles preserved in it. Because the gases in the atmosphere are so well mixed by winds and weather, even a tiny sample is a faithful record of the whole world. Ice is the gold standard for researching ancient atmospheres. Today’s longest ice cores have given us a record that goes back about 800,000 years. The new paper, \u003ca href=\"http://www.clim-past.net/9/2489/2013/cp-9-2489-2013.html\">published this month in the open-access journal \u003cem>Climate of the Past\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, raises the possibility of ice as old as 1.5 million years and outlines how to locate it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We have evidence of ancient climates from other sources: sediment layers on the seafloor preserve microscopic fossils, for instance. These can tell us something about ocean temperatures at different depths in the sea. Those sediment layers pile up essentially forever, too, much longer than ice lasts. But that evidence is always indirect.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ice is best, but it is geologically perishable. Ice begins to flow as it reaches a thickness of a hundred meters or so. Even on a dead level, it spreads sideways, stretching its annual layers thinner and thinner. At greater thicknesses, ice sheets start to melt at the bottom because of geothermal heat from the Earth’s crust beneath. The oldest possible ice must lie in places with a delicate balance between accumulation and destruction, and that’s what the paper’s authors, led by Hubertus Fischer of the University of Bern, set out to calculate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fischer’s team already knew that sites where Antarctic ice is piled on a high bedrock plateau are best for minimizing flow of all kinds. These are known as domes. The 800,000-year ice core was drilled on Antarctica’s Dome C. But the team showed that Dome C’s very thick ice makes the bottom melt faster than a dome with thinner ice would, limiting the age of its ice. A dome with thinner ice might actually have a longer record. To help their search for older ice the scientists used the latest “hugely improved data set” showing Antarctica’s ice thickness, made using high-powered radar, which easily penetrates ice. Subtracting the ice thickness from the ice surface yielded the best map yet of Antarctica’s hidden bedrock surface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_10767\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/antarctic-ice.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10767\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10767\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/antarctic-ice.png\" alt=\"Antarctic ice thickness and surface topography\" width=\"600\" height=\"322\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Antarctic ice thickness (left) and derived surface topography (right), from Figure 8 of Fischer et al. (2013)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The sweet spot would be a dome site where the ice is no more than 2.5 kilometers thick. The oldest decent ice would lie about 100 meters above bedrock, because ice flow smears and disrupts the bottom layers. The best sites should also not be windy, to avoid scouring of the ice and “wind glazing” (whereas such “blue ice” regions are superb for hunting meteorites in Antarctica). Fischer’s team ran their maps through their model to yield a map of likely prospects.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_10768\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/old-icemap.gif\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10768\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10768\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/old-icemap.gif\" alt=\"Targets for the oldest ice\" width=\"600\" height=\"488\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">From Figure 11 of Fischer et al. (2013). The dark outline between Domes A and C is subglacial Lake Vostok\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Domes A, C, and F look the most promising, but the details matter—there are buried mountain ranges and deep valleys, where the lowest ice would be roiled to uselessness. There is also the unknown degree of geothermal heating underneath different sites. When the search gets serious, detailed radar studies would pick out internal details of the ice. Fischer’s team recommends a strategy of drilling a lot of rapid, shallow holes before launching an expensive coring mission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The paper is not an academic exercise, but part of efforts to plan a drilling campaign that would capture the oldest possible samples of Earth’s atmosphere. With the right international support—and that assumes no more government shutdowns like last month’s, which disrupted a whole year of American research in Antarctica—the goal could be reached in a decade.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This news is not just cool; it’s important. In looking at the future, all we have to go on is the past and the present. Climate scientists use past and present data to build computer models of the global climate. These promise to give us useful pictures of how the world will respond to the atmospheric changes that humans are causing today. The better these models work, the more meaningful it will be when we use them to explore alternative futures.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_10766\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/anticecore.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10766\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10766\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/anticecore.jpg\" alt=\"scientist checks an ice core\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Michelle Koutnik of the University of Copenhagen’s Center for Ice and Climate prepares an Antarctic ice core for transport to the lab. NASA photo by Lora Koenig\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A large team of Antarctic researchers has published instructions for locating the oldest available samples of the ancient atmosphere. If their thinking is correct, we ought to be able to retrieve air from Antarctica’s ice sheets that’s almost twice as old as what we have today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ancient ice is a crucially important source of information about global climates of the past. Although the ice itself is a valuable record of regional conditions, the real prize is the air bubbles preserved in it. Because the gases in the atmosphere are so well mixed by winds and weather, even a tiny sample is a faithful record of the whole world. Ice is the gold standard for researching ancient atmospheres. Today’s longest ice cores have given us a record that goes back about 800,000 years. The new paper, \u003ca href=\"http://www.clim-past.net/9/2489/2013/cp-9-2489-2013.html\">published this month in the open-access journal \u003cem>Climate of the Past\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, raises the possibility of ice as old as 1.5 million years and outlines how to locate it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We have evidence of ancient climates from other sources: sediment layers on the seafloor preserve microscopic fossils, for instance. These can tell us something about ocean temperatures at different depths in the sea. Those sediment layers pile up essentially forever, too, much longer than ice lasts. But that evidence is always indirect.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ice is best, but it is geologically perishable. Ice begins to flow as it reaches a thickness of a hundred meters or so. Even on a dead level, it spreads sideways, stretching its annual layers thinner and thinner. At greater thicknesses, ice sheets start to melt at the bottom because of geothermal heat from the Earth’s crust beneath. The oldest possible ice must lie in places with a delicate balance between accumulation and destruction, and that’s what the paper’s authors, led by Hubertus Fischer of the University of Bern, set out to calculate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fischer’s team already knew that sites where Antarctic ice is piled on a high bedrock plateau are best for minimizing flow of all kinds. These are known as domes. The 800,000-year ice core was drilled on Antarctica’s Dome C. But the team showed that Dome C’s very thick ice makes the bottom melt faster than a dome with thinner ice would, limiting the age of its ice. A dome with thinner ice might actually have a longer record. To help their search for older ice the scientists used the latest “hugely improved data set” showing Antarctica’s ice thickness, made using high-powered radar, which easily penetrates ice. Subtracting the ice thickness from the ice surface yielded the best map yet of Antarctica’s hidden bedrock surface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_10767\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/antarctic-ice.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10767\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10767\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/antarctic-ice.png\" alt=\"Antarctic ice thickness and surface topography\" width=\"600\" height=\"322\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Antarctic ice thickness (left) and derived surface topography (right), from Figure 8 of Fischer et al. (2013)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The sweet spot would be a dome site where the ice is no more than 2.5 kilometers thick. The oldest decent ice would lie about 100 meters above bedrock, because ice flow smears and disrupts the bottom layers. The best sites should also not be windy, to avoid scouring of the ice and “wind glazing” (whereas such “blue ice” regions are superb for hunting meteorites in Antarctica). Fischer’s team ran their maps through their model to yield a map of likely prospects.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_10768\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/old-icemap.gif\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10768\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10768\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/11/old-icemap.gif\" alt=\"Targets for the oldest ice\" width=\"600\" height=\"488\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">From Figure 11 of Fischer et al. (2013). The dark outline between Domes A and C is subglacial Lake Vostok\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Domes A, C, and F look the most promising, but the details matter—there are buried mountain ranges and deep valleys, where the lowest ice would be roiled to uselessness. There is also the unknown degree of geothermal heating underneath different sites. When the search gets serious, detailed radar studies would pick out internal details of the ice. Fischer’s team recommends a strategy of drilling a lot of rapid, shallow holes before launching an expensive coring mission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The paper is not an academic exercise, but part of efforts to plan a drilling campaign that would capture the oldest possible samples of Earth’s atmosphere. With the right international support—and that assumes no more government shutdowns like last month’s, which disrupted a whole year of American research in Antarctica—the goal could be reached in a decade.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This news is not just cool; it’s important. In looking at the future, all we have to go on is the past and the present. Climate scientists use past and present data to build computer models of the global climate. These promise to give us useful pictures of how the world will respond to the atmospheric changes that humans are causing today. The better these models work, the more meaningful it will be when we use them to explore alternative futures.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>[jwplayer config=”ScienceAudioPlayer” mediaid=”8165″]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>By the end of the century, the Bay Area’s landscape could look more like Southern California’s, raising tough questions for land managers trying to preserve the region’s protected lands. \u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8203\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 350px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/blueoak.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8203\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8203\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/blueoak.jpg\" alt=\"A dead blue oak tree at the Blue Oak Ranch Reserve near San Jose. (Photo: Lauren Sommer/KQED)\" width=\"350\" height=\"328\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A dead blue oak tree at the Blue Oak Ranch Reserve near San Jose. (Photo: Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It may not be an official record, but by some accounts, more open space has been preserved in the San Francisco Bay Area than in any other major U.S. metropolitan area. More than a million acres are permanently protected from development – that’s almost one-third of the 4.5 million acres that make up the 10-county region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, with temperatures on the rise, land managers and scientists are beginning to ask how the Bay Area’s landscape will withstand climate change. As plants and animals are forced to shift, some of the Bay Area’s iconic parks and vistas could look dramatically different.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists say signs of those changes may already be appearing in places such as the hills east of downtown San Jose.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a blue oak,” says \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.org/\">Nature Conservancy\u003c/a> ecologist Sasha Gennet, examining the small, dark leaves of a towering tree on the \u003ca href=\"http://www.blueoakranchreserve.org/BORR/Welcome.html\">Blue Oak Ranch Reserve\u003c/a>, part of the University of California Natural Reserve System.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She pulls the branch down to eye level. “You can tell because they’re a little bit bluish or grayish,” she says. “They’re probably the hardiest of the oak species in the California. These are the ones that you see in those hottest, driest places, hanging on through the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But even these have their limits,” she adds, “and we’re starting to see what those limits are.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Here’s another dead one that’s also pretty young,” says field researcher Corinne Morozumi, pointing to the dried-out trunk of dead blue oak. She and UC Berkeley researcher Blair McLaughlin recently catalogued blue oaks across 20 square miles in the area, looking for dead trees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/openspaces/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8748\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8748\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/06/hdpublicplaces-mod.jpg\" alt=\"hdpublicplaces-mod\" width=\"200\" height=\"46\">\u003c/a>“The computer models tell us that there’s going to be climate stress here,” says Kirk Klausmeyer of the Nature Conservancy, looking across the hilltops. “We know that the climate has already changed somewhat in the Bay Area. We’ve already seen some warming trends. So we wanted to see if there are any early indications.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The results were surprising. Across the study area, there were three times more dead oak trees in drier, climate-stressed areas than were found in cooler, higher elevations. “We are seeing what our models are predicting,” says Morozumi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Exactly what’s causing the trees to die is still unknown, though it doesn’t appear to be a disease like Sudden Oak Death. In the Bay Area’s dry Mediterranean climate, Gennet says, the oaks may already be living at their limit. “Some hot, hot summers,” she says. “Maybe a couple of stretches where they just can’t access water at all. It could just push them over the edge.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"science-wide\">\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://www.stanford.edu/group/west/cgi-bin/projects/openspace-climate/index.html\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"960\" height=\"860\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Southern California Shift\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About a hundred miles north, UC Berkeley ecologist David Ackerly walks across a wooded hillside, pulling small orange and yellow flags out of the ground. Each marks a young tree.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One Doug fir juvenile,” he calls out. “Oak seedling.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ackerly and his field team are counting trees and gathering data inside a 60-by-60 foot research plot, one of 50 on the 3,000-acre \u003ca href=\"http://www.pepperwoodpreserve.org/\">Pepperwood Preserve\u003c/a> in Sonoma County. “If you want to see the forest of the future, you look at the small plants,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8205\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 332px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/ackerly.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8205\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8205\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/ackerly.jpg\" alt=\"UC Berkeley researcher David Ackerly measures a tree's diameter at the Pepperwood Preserve near Santa Rosa. (Photo: Lauren Sommer/KQED)\" width=\"332\" height=\"335\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">UC Berkeley researcher David Ackerly measures a tree’s diameter at the Pepperwood Preserve near Santa Rosa. (Photo: Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The plots will become a baseline for studying climate change, as the study team returns in five and ten years to document changes in the plant community and water availability. Change is what Ackerly expects to see, in the form of warmer temperatures, heat waves and \u003ca href=\"http://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2012/07/18/bay-area-landscape-likely-to-come-up-short-on-water/\">more intense drought\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We know the direction things are moving and what we can expect is that our climate will be more like climates in Southern California,” he says. “So in 30 or 40 years, it might be like San Luis Obispo and in 60 or 70 or 100 years, it may become like Los Angeles.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That could lead to an expansion of plants more commonly found in Southern California, like chaparral, the dense shrubs and bushes that thrive in drier conditions. Ackerly says under some climate scenarios in the Bay Area, there could be twice as much land with conditions that favor chaparral.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for what’s here today, “one way to think about it is we have plants living in the wrong place,” he says. “We have an oak tree that’s living here because of past conditions, but now it’s living under these future conditions that are very different.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Oak trees and other plants may need to move, either to higher elevations or closer to the coast where it’s cooler.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But oaks don’t pick up and move to the coast,” Ackerly says. “These oaks are never going to move that we’re looking at today. Their seeds will be picked up by a jay or a squirrel and moved half a kilometer or maybe some jay flies over to the next hillside, occasionally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For some oak trees, it could become an “acorn-by-acorn” race with climate change. Human management and fire also play a major role in how fast plants can move.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The biggest concern right now is not that things are changing,” Ackerly says. “It’s how fast.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You can have huge areas where a tree species might suddenly hit a drought it can’t survive,” he says. “Imagining large areas of the Bay Area with dead trees across the landscape – it’s not an image we’re used to, but it really can happen if conditions are changing very fast.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If chaparral shrublands expand, the Bay Area could also be facing a fire regime that’s closer to Southern California’s. “That’s a very different picture than what we’ve lived with,” Ackerly says. “We haven’t settled this landscape under the idea that we would have wildfires of that frequency or magnitude.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Managing Change on the Ground\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For land agencies, applying global climate change projections on a local level is no simple task. Parks and open spaces are often managed to maintain the historical landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Until now, our management objectives have been to keep the preserve essentially the same: have the same amount of grassland, the same amount of woodland,” says Lisa Micheli, executive director of the Pepperwood Preserve.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The really big take-home message for managers is that history can no longer be the basis for long-term planning,” she says. “We may need to let the systems adjust to the climate as it’s changing and stay out of the way. There may also be some places where we need to help native trees adapt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Planning for climate change may also require taking a longer view. “When do land managers start that process?” says Ryan Branciforte of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.openspacecouncil.org/\">Bay Area Open Space Council\u003c/a>. “Their horizon for planning for land management may be days, weeks, months, maybe years, but it’s surely not 50 and 100 years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area Open Space Council is working with the scientific community to develop localized climate change planning information for Bay Area land agencies, something many are eager to use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The changes are going to happen,” says Mike Anderson, Assistant General Manager at the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/\">East Bay Regional Park District\u003c/a>, which manages 113,000 acres in Alameda and Contra Costa counties. “We can’t change that. It’s a matter of giving things room to adapt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anderson says the park district is planning for sea level rise at their shoreline parks with wetland restoration, currently underway at Breuner Marsh in Richmond, part of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/pt_pinole\">Point Pinole Regional Shoreline\u003c/a>. Wetlands act as natural buffers against rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sea level rise is easier to see,” he says. “Inland changes will be much more subtle.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv>\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://www.stanford.edu/group/west/cgi-bin/projects/openspace-bayarea/index.html\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"960\" height=\"800\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A New Look at Conservation Goals\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With dynamic changes on the horizon, the Bay Area’s conservation community is grappling with a tough question: are today’s open spaces the places that should be protected tomorrow?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The conservation work that has been done in the Bay Area is actually really effective at protecting a very wide range of habitat types,” says Sasha Gennet of the Nature Conservancy. “So good conservation is going to stand the test of time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Preserving what’s on the ground today will depend on connecting up the Bay Area’s existing open spaces with corridors, Gennet says. “As things need to move, they can get across. They can get through wildlife corridors or have permeable lands to move through.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Nature Conservancy recently purchased a \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.org/about-us/private-lands-conservation/conservation-buyer/properties/gonzalez-farm.xml\">100-acre property\u003c/a> in Santa Clara County with climate change in mind. They plan to restore habitat on the Upper Pajaro River, potentially improving the corridor between the Santa Cruz Mountains and open spaces near San Jose.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With the Bay Area’s growing population, connecting the region’s entire open space network may not be possible. Gennet says it’s not just about buying land. “It’s a range of options,” she says. “Some of it is keeping private rangelands open. Some of it means working on riparian corridors that animals can move through.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ultimately, adapting to climate change could mean doing more of they do already, says Kirk Klausmeyer. “Good conservation helps plants and animals persist in the face of threats, whether it’s invasive species or disease or a really dry year,” he says. “Planning for climate change is just doing good conservation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It does lend more urgency to the work, says Branciforte of the Bay Area Open Space Council. “If we don’t connect these final pieces and build out the rest of the network, then we run the risk of losing the things that we originally intended on protecting.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>[jwplayer config=”ScienceAudioPlayer” mediaid=”8165″]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>By the end of the century, the Bay Area’s landscape could look more like Southern California’s, raising tough questions for land managers trying to preserve the region’s protected lands. \u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8203\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 350px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/blueoak.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8203\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8203\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/blueoak.jpg\" alt=\"A dead blue oak tree at the Blue Oak Ranch Reserve near San Jose. (Photo: Lauren Sommer/KQED)\" width=\"350\" height=\"328\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A dead blue oak tree at the Blue Oak Ranch Reserve near San Jose. (Photo: Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It may not be an official record, but by some accounts, more open space has been preserved in the San Francisco Bay Area than in any other major U.S. metropolitan area. More than a million acres are permanently protected from development – that’s almost one-third of the 4.5 million acres that make up the 10-county region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, with temperatures on the rise, land managers and scientists are beginning to ask how the Bay Area’s landscape will withstand climate change. As plants and animals are forced to shift, some of the Bay Area’s iconic parks and vistas could look dramatically different.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists say signs of those changes may already be appearing in places such as the hills east of downtown San Jose.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a blue oak,” says \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.org/\">Nature Conservancy\u003c/a> ecologist Sasha Gennet, examining the small, dark leaves of a towering tree on the \u003ca href=\"http://www.blueoakranchreserve.org/BORR/Welcome.html\">Blue Oak Ranch Reserve\u003c/a>, part of the University of California Natural Reserve System.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She pulls the branch down to eye level. “You can tell because they’re a little bit bluish or grayish,” she says. “They’re probably the hardiest of the oak species in the California. These are the ones that you see in those hottest, driest places, hanging on through the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But even these have their limits,” she adds, “and we’re starting to see what those limits are.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Here’s another dead one that’s also pretty young,” says field researcher Corinne Morozumi, pointing to the dried-out trunk of dead blue oak. She and UC Berkeley researcher Blair McLaughlin recently catalogued blue oaks across 20 square miles in the area, looking for dead trees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/openspaces/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8748\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8748\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/06/hdpublicplaces-mod.jpg\" alt=\"hdpublicplaces-mod\" width=\"200\" height=\"46\">\u003c/a>“The computer models tell us that there’s going to be climate stress here,” says Kirk Klausmeyer of the Nature Conservancy, looking across the hilltops. “We know that the climate has already changed somewhat in the Bay Area. We’ve already seen some warming trends. So we wanted to see if there are any early indications.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The results were surprising. Across the study area, there were three times more dead oak trees in drier, climate-stressed areas than were found in cooler, higher elevations. “We are seeing what our models are predicting,” says Morozumi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Exactly what’s causing the trees to die is still unknown, though it doesn’t appear to be a disease like Sudden Oak Death. In the Bay Area’s dry Mediterranean climate, Gennet says, the oaks may already be living at their limit. “Some hot, hot summers,” she says. “Maybe a couple of stretches where they just can’t access water at all. It could just push them over the edge.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"science-wide\">\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://www.stanford.edu/group/west/cgi-bin/projects/openspace-climate/index.html\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"960\" height=\"860\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Southern California Shift\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About a hundred miles north, UC Berkeley ecologist David Ackerly walks across a wooded hillside, pulling small orange and yellow flags out of the ground. Each marks a young tree.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One Doug fir juvenile,” he calls out. “Oak seedling.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ackerly and his field team are counting trees and gathering data inside a 60-by-60 foot research plot, one of 50 on the 3,000-acre \u003ca href=\"http://www.pepperwoodpreserve.org/\">Pepperwood Preserve\u003c/a> in Sonoma County. “If you want to see the forest of the future, you look at the small plants,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8205\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 332px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/ackerly.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8205\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8205\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/ackerly.jpg\" alt=\"UC Berkeley researcher David Ackerly measures a tree's diameter at the Pepperwood Preserve near Santa Rosa. (Photo: Lauren Sommer/KQED)\" width=\"332\" height=\"335\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">UC Berkeley researcher David Ackerly measures a tree’s diameter at the Pepperwood Preserve near Santa Rosa. (Photo: Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The plots will become a baseline for studying climate change, as the study team returns in five and ten years to document changes in the plant community and water availability. Change is what Ackerly expects to see, in the form of warmer temperatures, heat waves and \u003ca href=\"http://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2012/07/18/bay-area-landscape-likely-to-come-up-short-on-water/\">more intense drought\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We know the direction things are moving and what we can expect is that our climate will be more like climates in Southern California,” he says. “So in 30 or 40 years, it might be like San Luis Obispo and in 60 or 70 or 100 years, it may become like Los Angeles.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That could lead to an expansion of plants more commonly found in Southern California, like chaparral, the dense shrubs and bushes that thrive in drier conditions. Ackerly says under some climate scenarios in the Bay Area, there could be twice as much land with conditions that favor chaparral.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for what’s here today, “one way to think about it is we have plants living in the wrong place,” he says. “We have an oak tree that’s living here because of past conditions, but now it’s living under these future conditions that are very different.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Oak trees and other plants may need to move, either to higher elevations or closer to the coast where it’s cooler.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But oaks don’t pick up and move to the coast,” Ackerly says. “These oaks are never going to move that we’re looking at today. Their seeds will be picked up by a jay or a squirrel and moved half a kilometer or maybe some jay flies over to the next hillside, occasionally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For some oak trees, it could become an “acorn-by-acorn” race with climate change. Human management and fire also play a major role in how fast plants can move.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The biggest concern right now is not that things are changing,” Ackerly says. “It’s how fast.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You can have huge areas where a tree species might suddenly hit a drought it can’t survive,” he says. “Imagining large areas of the Bay Area with dead trees across the landscape – it’s not an image we’re used to, but it really can happen if conditions are changing very fast.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If chaparral shrublands expand, the Bay Area could also be facing a fire regime that’s closer to Southern California’s. “That’s a very different picture than what we’ve lived with,” Ackerly says. “We haven’t settled this landscape under the idea that we would have wildfires of that frequency or magnitude.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Managing Change on the Ground\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For land agencies, applying global climate change projections on a local level is no simple task. Parks and open spaces are often managed to maintain the historical landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Until now, our management objectives have been to keep the preserve essentially the same: have the same amount of grassland, the same amount of woodland,” says Lisa Micheli, executive director of the Pepperwood Preserve.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The really big take-home message for managers is that history can no longer be the basis for long-term planning,” she says. “We may need to let the systems adjust to the climate as it’s changing and stay out of the way. There may also be some places where we need to help native trees adapt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Planning for climate change may also require taking a longer view. “When do land managers start that process?” says Ryan Branciforte of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.openspacecouncil.org/\">Bay Area Open Space Council\u003c/a>. “Their horizon for planning for land management may be days, weeks, months, maybe years, but it’s surely not 50 and 100 years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area Open Space Council is working with the scientific community to develop localized climate change planning information for Bay Area land agencies, something many are eager to use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The changes are going to happen,” says Mike Anderson, Assistant General Manager at the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/\">East Bay Regional Park District\u003c/a>, which manages 113,000 acres in Alameda and Contra Costa counties. “We can’t change that. It’s a matter of giving things room to adapt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anderson says the park district is planning for sea level rise at their shoreline parks with wetland restoration, currently underway at Breuner Marsh in Richmond, part of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/pt_pinole\">Point Pinole Regional Shoreline\u003c/a>. Wetlands act as natural buffers against rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sea level rise is easier to see,” he says. “Inland changes will be much more subtle.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv>\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://www.stanford.edu/group/west/cgi-bin/projects/openspace-bayarea/index.html\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"960\" height=\"800\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A New Look at Conservation Goals\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With dynamic changes on the horizon, the Bay Area’s conservation community is grappling with a tough question: are today’s open spaces the places that should be protected tomorrow?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The conservation work that has been done in the Bay Area is actually really effective at protecting a very wide range of habitat types,” says Sasha Gennet of the Nature Conservancy. “So good conservation is going to stand the test of time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Preserving what’s on the ground today will depend on connecting up the Bay Area’s existing open spaces with corridors, Gennet says. “As things need to move, they can get across. They can get through wildlife corridors or have permeable lands to move through.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Nature Conservancy recently purchased a \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.org/about-us/private-lands-conservation/conservation-buyer/properties/gonzalez-farm.xml\">100-acre property\u003c/a> in Santa Clara County with climate change in mind. They plan to restore habitat on the Upper Pajaro River, potentially improving the corridor between the Santa Cruz Mountains and open spaces near San Jose.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With the Bay Area’s growing population, connecting the region’s entire open space network may not be possible. Gennet says it’s not just about buying land. “It’s a range of options,” she says. “Some of it is keeping private rangelands open. Some of it means working on riparian corridors that animals can move through.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ultimately, adapting to climate change could mean doing more of they do already, says Kirk Klausmeyer. “Good conservation helps plants and animals persist in the face of threats, whether it’s invasive species or disease or a really dry year,” he says. “Planning for climate change is just doing good conservation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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