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"content": "\u003cp>The Trump Administration has ended negotiations with California over fuel-efficiency regulations, and that’s no surprise, given recent events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Andrew Wheeler, acting administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency, appeared in San Francisco at the Bloomberg Mobility Conference in January. As KQED and other outlets reported at the time, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1933612/california-escalates-battle-with-trump-epa-over-clean-car-rules\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">relationship\u003c/a> between California and the EPA was already well and truly frosty.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We thought it would be useful to look more closely at what Wheeler says on issues central to California. In a rare interview, he spoke to \u003ca href=\"https://climateone.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Climate One\u003c/a>’s \u003ca href=\"https://climateone.org/people/greg-dalton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Greg Dalton\u003c/a> in San Francisco, and KQED reporter Molly Peterson has annotated the following excerpts from the interview. The excerpts were chosen for their relevance to Californians.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>On Power Plants\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Greg Dalton:\u003c/strong> During your Senate confirmation testimony, you said that climate change is not the greatest risk facing humanity, but it’s somewhere around an eight or nine on a scale of 10. So what is the Trump Administration doing to address that eight or nine challenge for humanity?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Andrew Wheeler: \u003c/strong>Sure, we’re moving forward with our ACE proposal, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/stationary-sources-air-pollution/proposal-affordable-clean-energy-ace-rule\">Affordable Clean Energy [Rule]\u003c/a>, which will reduce CO2 from the electric power segment. We’re also moving forth our \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1927865/trump-epa-ready-to-throw-down-gauntlet-on-calif-auto-emissions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CAFE standard\u003c/a>, which will also reduce CO2. On the ACE proposal, it’s projected to get 33 to 34 percent reduction in CO2 from the electric power sector over the life of the regulation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton: \u003c/strong>Though, I think a \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aafe25\">Harvard study\u003c/a> that questioned whether that will really reduce CO2 compared to the Obama Clean Power Plan, which I think that’s trying to replace.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler: \u003c/strong>Well, you got to remember the Obama \u003ca href=\"https://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Clean Power Plan\u003c/a> never took effect. It was stayed by the Supreme Court because, in my opinion, it went outside the Clean Air Act. It’s really hard to compare apples and oranges when you have a regulation that was never implemented outside the jurisdiction of the agency and the outside of the authority of the Clean Air Act versus a proposed regulation that follows the law, follows the Supreme Court precedents, and will reduce CO2.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">Wheeler’s right about one thing: It’s hard to compare the Obama-era Clean Power Plan and the Affordable Clean Energy Rule, but not for the reasons he cites. The two plans are based on dramatically different assumptions, both about how fast carbon emissions are already dropping, and how low they’ll be in the future.Wheeler’s pledge that ACE will reduce carbon in the electric power sector by “33 to 34 percent” comes from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-08/documents/utilities_ria_proposed_ace_2018-08.pdf\">EPA’s analysis of its rule\u003c/a>. But reading the fine print in that analysis, it’s clear that almost all of those emissions will go away whether or not the ACE rule takes effect: less than 1 percent of emissions reductions will come directly from the Trump-era rule.\n\u003cp>And EPA’s own analysis offers evidence the ACE rule won’t be as effective as the Clean Power Plan. I scratched out a tons-to-tons comparison of the projected emissions and promised reductions in each proposal from data tables in the analysis, and it comes out like this: By 2030, emissions under the Affordable Clean Energy Rule may be 5 to 6 percent higher than under the Clean Power Plan. On top of that, loopholes in the ACE rule could increase carbon emissions in 19 states and the District of Columbia, \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aafe25\">according to researchers at Resources for the Future and Harvard.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch3>On How Far EPA’s Authority Goes\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong> Coal production — coal capacity — in the United States is down about a third from 2010. Banks, insurance companies, hedge funds are all moving away from coal, as you well know. Do you really think that that easing regulations on coal will help bring back an industry that’s in decline for lots of reasons?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler: \u003c/strong>I think the important thing here is that we’re not tipping the scales. The Obama Administration tipped the scales away from coal. It’s not the job of the EPA — the authority of the EPA — to pick winners and losers between the different fuel sources. That would be either Department of Energy or FERC [Federal Energy Regulatory Commission], or even more likely, the state PUCs [Public Utility Commissions]. Our job is to set the regulations that govern the industry, and that’s what we’re doing, and we believe we have a responsible regulation that will reduce CO2 in the electrical power segment, following both the Clean Air Act and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.oyez.org/cases/2006/05-1120\">Massachusetts vs. EPA decision\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">As Wheeler himself points out, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Clean Power Plan\u003c/a>, the regulatory scheme that presented the greatest existential threat to coal-fired power plants, never took effect. What really tipped the scales against coal was the market itself: \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38172\">more than half\u003c/a> of mines that were open a decade ago have closed, and the Energy Information Authority \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37817\">reports\u003c/a> that U.S. coal consumption was the lowest last year in 39 years.Wheeler says it’s not the job of the EPA to pick winners and losers among fuel sources. That’s not entirely accurate. It \u003cu>is\u003c/u> the job of the EPA to regulate greenhouse gases. In 2014, an opinion by Justice Antonin Scalia in the case \u003ca href=\"https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/supreme-court-decision-limiting-epa-regulation-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions/1117/\">Utility Air Regulatory Group vs. EPA\u003c/a> found that greenhouse gas emissions don’t automatically trigger federal regulation. But the court also decided that the EPA could limit greenhouse gas as a “pollutant subject to regulation” for big power plants that were already regulated for other pollutants.\n\u003cp>So, in effect, regulation can tip the scale toward cleaner fuel sources, because it’s meant to limit pollution.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch3>On Clean Car Standards\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton: \u003c/strong>[W]e’re here talking at a Bloomberg Conference on Mobility — a lot of talk about the California waiver, clean car standards. California and the federal government are kind of at a deadlock there. How’s that gonna play out? \u003cem>[Editor’s Note: This interview happened before the break in talks.]\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler:\u003c/strong> Well, hopefully we can end up with something as a regulation that California likes and can agree with, but, you know, California’s only looking at it as one policy issue and that is energy efficiency. The Trump Administration, the federal government, we’re looking at more than just one policy issue, including highway safety, lives saved. Our proposal will save 1,000 lives per year as opposed — over and above the Obama proposal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton: \u003c/strong>Is that because of bigger cars? What’s the basis for that?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler:\u003c/strong> It’s older cars. Right now, people are keeping their cars longer because the high price of cars. The average lifespan for a car on the on the road, the average age of a car on the road, today is 12 years. It used to be eight years. People are holding onto their cars longer. When you buy a new car, you buy a more energy-efficient car, you buy a safer car, and what we’re trying to do with our CAFE proposal is bring down the cost of a new car, which would bring us down [by] around $2,300 per car on average. That will incentivize more people to buy newer, safer, more energy-efficient cars.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">This is a little confusing. Wheeler is relying on a major public analysis \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/ld-cafe-co2-nhtsa-2127-al76-epa-pria-180823.pdf\">released\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/ld-cafe-co2-nhtsa-2127-al76-epa-pria-180823.pdf\">jointly\u003c/a> by the EPA and the National Transportation Safety Highway Authority that \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-09/documents/caaac_presentation_on_safe_nprm_sept_26_2018_final.pdf\">essentially\u003c/a> argues that it saves lives for fuel-efficient cars to come onto the market more slowly than the current standards require.The Trump Administration’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/ld-cafe-co2-nhtsa-2127-al76-epa-pria-180823.pdf\">analysis\u003c/a> found that EPA’s CAFE proposal would reduce expected road fatalities by 1,000 a year, if it takes effect, because it assumes that people driving energy-efficient cars would drive far more often, raising their risk for fatal accidents. For this and other reasons, scholars \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/02/climate/trump-fuel-economy.html\">on whose work the EPA relies \u003c/a> disagree, \u003ca href=\"http://environment.yale.edu/news/article/economist-on-the-flaws-large-and-small-in-trumps-fuel-economy-rollback/\">saying\u003c/a> that this analysis is “botching the equation” and “flies in the face of economic logic.”\n\u003cp>In fact, an internal EPA staff presentation sent to the Office of Management and Budget \u003ca href=\"http://www.4cleanair.org/sites/default/files/Documents/EPA_Staff_Memo_to_NHTSA_on_Draft_NPRM-61818.pdf\">concluded\u003c/a> that the agency’s proposal would actually increase road fatalities by 17 a year. EPA director of standards William Charmley wrote that the “proposed standards are detrimental to safety, rather than beneficial.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then there’s the cost question. EPA does conclude that its CAFE standards would make cars, on average, $2,340 cheaper, which also helps justify its record-breaking auto sales projections. But economists and consumer advocates say \u003ca href=\"https://consumerfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/on-the-road-to-2025-cafe-standards.pdf\">the\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://consumerfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/on-the-road-to-2025-cafe-standards.pdf\">cost\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://consumerfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/on-the-road-to-2025-cafe-standards.pdf\">of\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://consumerfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/on-the-road-to-2025-cafe-standards.pdf\">fuel\u003c/a> and the \u003ca href=\"https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2018/09/08/rebounds-role-in-trumps-fuel-economy-rollback/\">depreciation\u003c/a> of the cheaper cars would offset that initial benefit, a point that Greg Dalton makes in his follow up question, below:\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong> The cars that get better gas mileage cost less to operate over the lifetime of that car. People who have more fuel-efficient cars spend less on gas, so isn’t that also saving Americans money, if they have more efficient cars?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler: \u003c/strong>If they actually buy the newer cars. As we’ve seen over the last 10 years, people aren’t buying the newer cars. Part of that is the Obama Administration looked at some faulty — we believe — looked at some faulty consumer profiling information as far as what people want to buy, what people are purchasing today. And right now electric cars make up about two percent of the sales. In order to completely comply with the Obama CAFE standards by 2025, you’d have to jumpstart the electric cars up to 30 percent. We just don’t – you know, the data we’ve seen about what the American public wants to buy, what they’re interested in buying, doesn’t match that.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">Wheeler’s interpretation of consumer behavior isn’t the only or dominant one. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1931169/governor-browns-biggest-climate-foe-isnt-trump-its-car-loving-californians\">Check out Lauren Sommer’s story\u003c/a> for a wide-ranging understanding of the obstacles to getting consumers to drive an electric vehicle home. She found that interest in electric cars is growing, but knowledge of them isn’t. And a key reason why is the absence of national advertising.(Let us know what you think! See reporter email below.)\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong> [Auto manufacturers] also have said that they don’t want to roll back the auto-emission standards. Ford has come out and said that. Other auto companies have said, “We want certainty. It’s not good for industry, for the federal government and California to fight it out in court,” and they don’t know who’s gonna win. So what about the voice of industry here, who’s saying, “Hey, we want some clarity,” which is what they always want?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler:\u003c/strong> Well, industry came to us the beginning of this administration and said that they can’t meet the Obama standards going forward. And you know, right now, they’re not. If you look at the 2016 data, they paid $77,000,000 in penalties because they did not meet the 2016 Obama CAFE standard, and that amount is supposed to increase dramatically over the next 10 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">The source of Wheeler’s penalty number isn’t clear. For the years between 2010 and 2014, auto makers \u003ca href=\"https://one.nhtsa.gov/cafe_pic/CAFE_PIC_Fines_LIVE.html\">paid about $100 million\u003c/a> in CAFE penalties. Fiat Chrysler \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-07/fiat-chrysler-pays-77-million-for-missing-fuel-economy-target\">has paid\u003c/a> $77 million for the model year 2016 alone, after penalties rose to match inflation, but was the only automaker to fall short in 2016.Wheeler is mischaracterizing the industry’s perspective. Manufacturers may have asked for some regulatory relief in private, but in public they’re singing a different tune.“We support increasing clean car standards through 2025 and are not asking for a rollback,” \u003ca href=\"https://medium.com/cityoftomorrow/a-measure-of-progress-bc34ad2b0ed\">wrote Bill Ford\u003c/a> about his company’s position, almost a year ago. Honda \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/30/climate/epa-auto-pollution-pruitt.html\">says\u003c/a> they’re not asking for a rollback. Mitch Bainwol, CEO for the industry’s lobbying umbrella, the Auto Alliance, \u003ca href=\"https://web.archive.org/web/20180928033730/https:/docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF18/20180508/108270/HHRG-115-IF18-Wstate-BainwolM-20180508.pdf\">told Congress\u003c/a> that meeting CAFE standards was challenging — but he didn’t say they can’t do it.\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch3>On a Carbon Tax\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong> There’s legislation in Congress now. Pricing carbon pollution is now on the table again; it hasn’t been that way in about ten years or so. There’s something called the Carbon Dividend Plan that was co-authored by James Baker, George Shultz and supported by one of your predecessors, Christine Todd Whitman; as well as Rob Walton, the scion of the of the Walmart family; Ben Bernanke; also corporations: ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Excellon, AT&T. This is the corporate and political establishment. What do you think of that plan?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler: …\u003c/strong>A carbon tax is one of the most regressive taxes you can put on the American public because lower income people, people on a fixed income, end up paying more of a percentage of their income. Well first of all, they paid more of a percentage of their income for energy today than people in upper brackets, so it really does hurt lower income people, people on a fixed budget. And it’s not just – I know they’re talking about paying dividends back to people, so they have a rebate for their gasoline, or a rebate for their home heating and air conditioning, but what about the dividends to make up for the increased price on goods from the small businesses, from the restaurants they go to? From the local McDonald’s, where they’re paying more for their electricity? So it’s a regressive form of taxation. It may be economically one of the easier ways of addressing CO2, but it’s really harmful to low-income people.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">Supporters of carbon taxes argue that this way of framing a discussion around the costs of climate change is misleading. An argument for a carbon tax is that we already pay one, through negative externalities, like the concentration of asthma-inducing smog, and increased vulnerabilities to heat. Those costs of climate change already affect the health and economic well-being of poor people disproportionately. A carbon tax would more accurately reflect the economic, social and health costs to these emissions.Economic studies show a carbon tax could be regressive, and to address that, economists propose methods to prevent pain in low- and middle-income tax brackets. Lump-sum rebates, targeted rebates, or cuts to existing regressive taxes could blunt the regressive effect, and acknowledge the costs that some Americans already pay more than others.\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch3>On Forest Management and Fire in California\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong>And what is the way — if you say climate change is an eight or a nine, I heard you talk about the clean energy plan — what are the other ways to tackle climate change? Because we’re seeing storms, fires and deaths in California. Storms are more severe, Houston, et cetera. It’s getting very expensive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler:\u003c/strong>It is a global problem. It needs to be addressed globally…But also equally important is looking at adaptation, and making sure that when a natural disaster strikes, we rebuild to sustain a larger storm surge…As far as the California fires, and this is a topic that I got into in my confirmation, I believe the unofficial name is the Little Hoover Institute here in California, that drafted a report based upon the fires, and they blame the forest management practices of the last hundred years more than climate change. I think it’s important not to lose sight of that aspect because we really do need to have better forest management in order to stop the wild, destructive fires that we’ve seen in recent years.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">This is a mischaracterization of the Little Hoover Commission report, whose authors \u003ca href=\"https://lhc.ca.gov/sites/lhc.ca.gov/files/Reports/242/Report242.pdf\">wrote last May\u003c/a> that “[p]oor management policies that interrupted the natural and historical cycle of fire, combined now with a changing climate, have left forests vulnerable to disease, insects, catastrophic fire and drought.”According to the Congressional Research Service, the federal government owns about 46% of California’s total land, much of it forested. Federal and state forest managers and fire authorities have emphasized that they’re working together to shift away from managing only by suppressing fires. Public officials also have reiterated in the last year that climate change compounds the urgency of the problem.\n\u003cp>All of that work comes as President Trump has \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1026587142989008897?lang=en\">blamed\u003c/a> California for \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1061554334276747264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1061554334276747264&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdeadline.com%2F2018%2F11%2Fdonald-trumps-latest-california-wildfires-twitter-do-over-first-responders-very-brave-1202500249%2F\">“poor”\u003c/a>” forest management, \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1061168803218948096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1061168803218948096&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2018%2F11%2F11%2Fpolitics%2Fcalifornia-wildfires-trump-tweets%2Findex.html\">threatening\u003c/a> on Twitter to \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1083022011574747137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.buzzfeednews.com%2Farticle%2Fbriannasacks%2Ftrump-california-disaster-aid-order-no-record\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">take away\u003c/a> federal money. According to a \u003ca href=\"https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/trump-california-disaster-aid-order-no-record\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recent Buzzfeed report\u003c/a>, FEMA says the President never did issue that order.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://climateone.org/people/greg-dalton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Greg Dalton\u003c/a> is the host and founder of Climate One, a \u003ca href=\"https://climateone.org/watch-and-listen/podcasts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">podcast\u003c/a> and radio show on \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500005/npr-news-now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NPR Now\u003c/a> that engages high-level leaders from business, policy, advocacy and academic circles in a conversation about building a sustainable economy and stabilizing the Earth’s climate. Climate One is recorded with a live audience at \u003ca href=\"https://www.commonwealthclub.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Commonwealth Club\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Do you have thoughts about the story? \u003ca href=\"mailto:mpeterson@kqed.org\">Email Molly Peterson\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "EPA Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler spoke in San Francisco recently on fires, cars, and energy. We checked his claims ... it's complicated.",
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"description": "EPA Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler spoke in San Francisco recently on fires, cars, and energy. We checked his claims ... it's complicated.",
"title": "Here's Trump's EPA Pick Talking Climate Change. And Yes, We Fact-Checked Him | KQED",
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"headline": "Here's Trump's EPA Pick Talking Climate Change. And Yes, We Fact-Checked Him",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The Trump Administration has ended negotiations with California over fuel-efficiency regulations, and that’s no surprise, given recent events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Andrew Wheeler, acting administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency, appeared in San Francisco at the Bloomberg Mobility Conference in January. As KQED and other outlets reported at the time, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1933612/california-escalates-battle-with-trump-epa-over-clean-car-rules\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">relationship\u003c/a> between California and the EPA was already well and truly frosty.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We thought it would be useful to look more closely at what Wheeler says on issues central to California. In a rare interview, he spoke to \u003ca href=\"https://climateone.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Climate One\u003c/a>’s \u003ca href=\"https://climateone.org/people/greg-dalton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Greg Dalton\u003c/a> in San Francisco, and KQED reporter Molly Peterson has annotated the following excerpts from the interview. The excerpts were chosen for their relevance to Californians.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>On Power Plants\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Greg Dalton:\u003c/strong> During your Senate confirmation testimony, you said that climate change is not the greatest risk facing humanity, but it’s somewhere around an eight or nine on a scale of 10. So what is the Trump Administration doing to address that eight or nine challenge for humanity?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Andrew Wheeler: \u003c/strong>Sure, we’re moving forward with our ACE proposal, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/stationary-sources-air-pollution/proposal-affordable-clean-energy-ace-rule\">Affordable Clean Energy [Rule]\u003c/a>, which will reduce CO2 from the electric power segment. We’re also moving forth our \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1927865/trump-epa-ready-to-throw-down-gauntlet-on-calif-auto-emissions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CAFE standard\u003c/a>, which will also reduce CO2. On the ACE proposal, it’s projected to get 33 to 34 percent reduction in CO2 from the electric power sector over the life of the regulation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton: \u003c/strong>Though, I think a \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aafe25\">Harvard study\u003c/a> that questioned whether that will really reduce CO2 compared to the Obama Clean Power Plan, which I think that’s trying to replace.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler: \u003c/strong>Well, you got to remember the Obama \u003ca href=\"https://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Clean Power Plan\u003c/a> never took effect. It was stayed by the Supreme Court because, in my opinion, it went outside the Clean Air Act. It’s really hard to compare apples and oranges when you have a regulation that was never implemented outside the jurisdiction of the agency and the outside of the authority of the Clean Air Act versus a proposed regulation that follows the law, follows the Supreme Court precedents, and will reduce CO2.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">Wheeler’s right about one thing: It’s hard to compare the Obama-era Clean Power Plan and the Affordable Clean Energy Rule, but not for the reasons he cites. The two plans are based on dramatically different assumptions, both about how fast carbon emissions are already dropping, and how low they’ll be in the future.Wheeler’s pledge that ACE will reduce carbon in the electric power sector by “33 to 34 percent” comes from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-08/documents/utilities_ria_proposed_ace_2018-08.pdf\">EPA’s analysis of its rule\u003c/a>. But reading the fine print in that analysis, it’s clear that almost all of those emissions will go away whether or not the ACE rule takes effect: less than 1 percent of emissions reductions will come directly from the Trump-era rule.\n\u003cp>And EPA’s own analysis offers evidence the ACE rule won’t be as effective as the Clean Power Plan. I scratched out a tons-to-tons comparison of the projected emissions and promised reductions in each proposal from data tables in the analysis, and it comes out like this: By 2030, emissions under the Affordable Clean Energy Rule may be 5 to 6 percent higher than under the Clean Power Plan. On top of that, loopholes in the ACE rule could increase carbon emissions in 19 states and the District of Columbia, \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aafe25\">according to researchers at Resources for the Future and Harvard.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch3>On How Far EPA’s Authority Goes\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong> Coal production — coal capacity — in the United States is down about a third from 2010. Banks, insurance companies, hedge funds are all moving away from coal, as you well know. Do you really think that that easing regulations on coal will help bring back an industry that’s in decline for lots of reasons?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler: \u003c/strong>I think the important thing here is that we’re not tipping the scales. The Obama Administration tipped the scales away from coal. It’s not the job of the EPA — the authority of the EPA — to pick winners and losers between the different fuel sources. That would be either Department of Energy or FERC [Federal Energy Regulatory Commission], or even more likely, the state PUCs [Public Utility Commissions]. Our job is to set the regulations that govern the industry, and that’s what we’re doing, and we believe we have a responsible regulation that will reduce CO2 in the electrical power segment, following both the Clean Air Act and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.oyez.org/cases/2006/05-1120\">Massachusetts vs. EPA decision\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">As Wheeler himself points out, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Clean Power Plan\u003c/a>, the regulatory scheme that presented the greatest existential threat to coal-fired power plants, never took effect. What really tipped the scales against coal was the market itself: \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38172\">more than half\u003c/a> of mines that were open a decade ago have closed, and the Energy Information Authority \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37817\">reports\u003c/a> that U.S. coal consumption was the lowest last year in 39 years.Wheeler says it’s not the job of the EPA to pick winners and losers among fuel sources. That’s not entirely accurate. It \u003cu>is\u003c/u> the job of the EPA to regulate greenhouse gases. In 2014, an opinion by Justice Antonin Scalia in the case \u003ca href=\"https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/supreme-court-decision-limiting-epa-regulation-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions/1117/\">Utility Air Regulatory Group vs. EPA\u003c/a> found that greenhouse gas emissions don’t automatically trigger federal regulation. But the court also decided that the EPA could limit greenhouse gas as a “pollutant subject to regulation” for big power plants that were already regulated for other pollutants.\n\u003cp>So, in effect, regulation can tip the scale toward cleaner fuel sources, because it’s meant to limit pollution.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch3>On Clean Car Standards\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton: \u003c/strong>[W]e’re here talking at a Bloomberg Conference on Mobility — a lot of talk about the California waiver, clean car standards. California and the federal government are kind of at a deadlock there. How’s that gonna play out? \u003cem>[Editor’s Note: This interview happened before the break in talks.]\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler:\u003c/strong> Well, hopefully we can end up with something as a regulation that California likes and can agree with, but, you know, California’s only looking at it as one policy issue and that is energy efficiency. The Trump Administration, the federal government, we’re looking at more than just one policy issue, including highway safety, lives saved. Our proposal will save 1,000 lives per year as opposed — over and above the Obama proposal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton: \u003c/strong>Is that because of bigger cars? What’s the basis for that?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler:\u003c/strong> It’s older cars. Right now, people are keeping their cars longer because the high price of cars. The average lifespan for a car on the on the road, the average age of a car on the road, today is 12 years. It used to be eight years. People are holding onto their cars longer. When you buy a new car, you buy a more energy-efficient car, you buy a safer car, and what we’re trying to do with our CAFE proposal is bring down the cost of a new car, which would bring us down [by] around $2,300 per car on average. That will incentivize more people to buy newer, safer, more energy-efficient cars.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">This is a little confusing. Wheeler is relying on a major public analysis \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/ld-cafe-co2-nhtsa-2127-al76-epa-pria-180823.pdf\">released\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/ld-cafe-co2-nhtsa-2127-al76-epa-pria-180823.pdf\">jointly\u003c/a> by the EPA and the National Transportation Safety Highway Authority that \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-09/documents/caaac_presentation_on_safe_nprm_sept_26_2018_final.pdf\">essentially\u003c/a> argues that it saves lives for fuel-efficient cars to come onto the market more slowly than the current standards require.The Trump Administration’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/ld-cafe-co2-nhtsa-2127-al76-epa-pria-180823.pdf\">analysis\u003c/a> found that EPA’s CAFE proposal would reduce expected road fatalities by 1,000 a year, if it takes effect, because it assumes that people driving energy-efficient cars would drive far more often, raising their risk for fatal accidents. For this and other reasons, scholars \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/02/climate/trump-fuel-economy.html\">on whose work the EPA relies \u003c/a> disagree, \u003ca href=\"http://environment.yale.edu/news/article/economist-on-the-flaws-large-and-small-in-trumps-fuel-economy-rollback/\">saying\u003c/a> that this analysis is “botching the equation” and “flies in the face of economic logic.”\n\u003cp>In fact, an internal EPA staff presentation sent to the Office of Management and Budget \u003ca href=\"http://www.4cleanair.org/sites/default/files/Documents/EPA_Staff_Memo_to_NHTSA_on_Draft_NPRM-61818.pdf\">concluded\u003c/a> that the agency’s proposal would actually increase road fatalities by 17 a year. EPA director of standards William Charmley wrote that the “proposed standards are detrimental to safety, rather than beneficial.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then there’s the cost question. EPA does conclude that its CAFE standards would make cars, on average, $2,340 cheaper, which also helps justify its record-breaking auto sales projections. But economists and consumer advocates say \u003ca href=\"https://consumerfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/on-the-road-to-2025-cafe-standards.pdf\">the\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://consumerfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/on-the-road-to-2025-cafe-standards.pdf\">cost\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://consumerfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/on-the-road-to-2025-cafe-standards.pdf\">of\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://consumerfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/on-the-road-to-2025-cafe-standards.pdf\">fuel\u003c/a> and the \u003ca href=\"https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2018/09/08/rebounds-role-in-trumps-fuel-economy-rollback/\">depreciation\u003c/a> of the cheaper cars would offset that initial benefit, a point that Greg Dalton makes in his follow up question, below:\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong> The cars that get better gas mileage cost less to operate over the lifetime of that car. People who have more fuel-efficient cars spend less on gas, so isn’t that also saving Americans money, if they have more efficient cars?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler: \u003c/strong>If they actually buy the newer cars. As we’ve seen over the last 10 years, people aren’t buying the newer cars. Part of that is the Obama Administration looked at some faulty — we believe — looked at some faulty consumer profiling information as far as what people want to buy, what people are purchasing today. And right now electric cars make up about two percent of the sales. In order to completely comply with the Obama CAFE standards by 2025, you’d have to jumpstart the electric cars up to 30 percent. We just don’t – you know, the data we’ve seen about what the American public wants to buy, what they’re interested in buying, doesn’t match that.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">Wheeler’s interpretation of consumer behavior isn’t the only or dominant one. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1931169/governor-browns-biggest-climate-foe-isnt-trump-its-car-loving-californians\">Check out Lauren Sommer’s story\u003c/a> for a wide-ranging understanding of the obstacles to getting consumers to drive an electric vehicle home. She found that interest in electric cars is growing, but knowledge of them isn’t. And a key reason why is the absence of national advertising.(Let us know what you think! See reporter email below.)\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong> [Auto manufacturers] also have said that they don’t want to roll back the auto-emission standards. Ford has come out and said that. Other auto companies have said, “We want certainty. It’s not good for industry, for the federal government and California to fight it out in court,” and they don’t know who’s gonna win. So what about the voice of industry here, who’s saying, “Hey, we want some clarity,” which is what they always want?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler:\u003c/strong> Well, industry came to us the beginning of this administration and said that they can’t meet the Obama standards going forward. And you know, right now, they’re not. If you look at the 2016 data, they paid $77,000,000 in penalties because they did not meet the 2016 Obama CAFE standard, and that amount is supposed to increase dramatically over the next 10 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">The source of Wheeler’s penalty number isn’t clear. For the years between 2010 and 2014, auto makers \u003ca href=\"https://one.nhtsa.gov/cafe_pic/CAFE_PIC_Fines_LIVE.html\">paid about $100 million\u003c/a> in CAFE penalties. Fiat Chrysler \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-07/fiat-chrysler-pays-77-million-for-missing-fuel-economy-target\">has paid\u003c/a> $77 million for the model year 2016 alone, after penalties rose to match inflation, but was the only automaker to fall short in 2016.Wheeler is mischaracterizing the industry’s perspective. Manufacturers may have asked for some regulatory relief in private, but in public they’re singing a different tune.“We support increasing clean car standards through 2025 and are not asking for a rollback,” \u003ca href=\"https://medium.com/cityoftomorrow/a-measure-of-progress-bc34ad2b0ed\">wrote Bill Ford\u003c/a> about his company’s position, almost a year ago. Honda \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/30/climate/epa-auto-pollution-pruitt.html\">says\u003c/a> they’re not asking for a rollback. Mitch Bainwol, CEO for the industry’s lobbying umbrella, the Auto Alliance, \u003ca href=\"https://web.archive.org/web/20180928033730/https:/docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF18/20180508/108270/HHRG-115-IF18-Wstate-BainwolM-20180508.pdf\">told Congress\u003c/a> that meeting CAFE standards was challenging — but he didn’t say they can’t do it.\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch3>On a Carbon Tax\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong> There’s legislation in Congress now. Pricing carbon pollution is now on the table again; it hasn’t been that way in about ten years or so. There’s something called the Carbon Dividend Plan that was co-authored by James Baker, George Shultz and supported by one of your predecessors, Christine Todd Whitman; as well as Rob Walton, the scion of the of the Walmart family; Ben Bernanke; also corporations: ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Excellon, AT&T. This is the corporate and political establishment. What do you think of that plan?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler: …\u003c/strong>A carbon tax is one of the most regressive taxes you can put on the American public because lower income people, people on a fixed income, end up paying more of a percentage of their income. Well first of all, they paid more of a percentage of their income for energy today than people in upper brackets, so it really does hurt lower income people, people on a fixed budget. And it’s not just – I know they’re talking about paying dividends back to people, so they have a rebate for their gasoline, or a rebate for their home heating and air conditioning, but what about the dividends to make up for the increased price on goods from the small businesses, from the restaurants they go to? From the local McDonald’s, where they’re paying more for their electricity? So it’s a regressive form of taxation. It may be economically one of the easier ways of addressing CO2, but it’s really harmful to low-income people.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">Supporters of carbon taxes argue that this way of framing a discussion around the costs of climate change is misleading. An argument for a carbon tax is that we already pay one, through negative externalities, like the concentration of asthma-inducing smog, and increased vulnerabilities to heat. Those costs of climate change already affect the health and economic well-being of poor people disproportionately. A carbon tax would more accurately reflect the economic, social and health costs to these emissions.Economic studies show a carbon tax could be regressive, and to address that, economists propose methods to prevent pain in low- and middle-income tax brackets. Lump-sum rebates, targeted rebates, or cuts to existing regressive taxes could blunt the regressive effect, and acknowledge the costs that some Americans already pay more than others.\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch3>On Forest Management and Fire in California\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dalton:\u003c/strong>And what is the way — if you say climate change is an eight or a nine, I heard you talk about the clean energy plan — what are the other ways to tackle climate change? Because we’re seeing storms, fires and deaths in California. Storms are more severe, Houston, et cetera. It’s getting very expensive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wheeler:\u003c/strong>It is a global problem. It needs to be addressed globally…But also equally important is looking at adaptation, and making sure that when a natural disaster strikes, we rebuild to sustain a larger storm surge…As far as the California fires, and this is a topic that I got into in my confirmation, I believe the unofficial name is the Little Hoover Institute here in California, that drafted a report based upon the fires, and they blame the forest management practices of the last hundred years more than climate change. I think it’s important not to lose sight of that aspect because we really do need to have better forest management in order to stop the wild, destructive fires that we’ve seen in recent years.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">This is a mischaracterization of the Little Hoover Commission report, whose authors \u003ca href=\"https://lhc.ca.gov/sites/lhc.ca.gov/files/Reports/242/Report242.pdf\">wrote last May\u003c/a> that “[p]oor management policies that interrupted the natural and historical cycle of fire, combined now with a changing climate, have left forests vulnerable to disease, insects, catastrophic fire and drought.”According to the Congressional Research Service, the federal government owns about 46% of California’s total land, much of it forested. Federal and state forest managers and fire authorities have emphasized that they’re working together to shift away from managing only by suppressing fires. Public officials also have reiterated in the last year that climate change compounds the urgency of the problem.\n\u003cp>All of that work comes as President Trump has \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1026587142989008897?lang=en\">blamed\u003c/a> California for \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1061554334276747264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1061554334276747264&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdeadline.com%2F2018%2F11%2Fdonald-trumps-latest-california-wildfires-twitter-do-over-first-responders-very-brave-1202500249%2F\">“poor”\u003c/a>” forest management, \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1061168803218948096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1061168803218948096&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2018%2F11%2F11%2Fpolitics%2Fcalifornia-wildfires-trump-tweets%2Findex.html\">threatening\u003c/a> on Twitter to \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1083022011574747137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.buzzfeednews.com%2Farticle%2Fbriannasacks%2Ftrump-california-disaster-aid-order-no-record\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">take away\u003c/a> federal money. According to a \u003ca href=\"https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/trump-california-disaster-aid-order-no-record\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recent Buzzfeed report\u003c/a>, FEMA says the President never did issue that order.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://climateone.org/people/greg-dalton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Greg Dalton\u003c/a> is the host and founder of Climate One, a \u003ca href=\"https://climateone.org/watch-and-listen/podcasts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">podcast\u003c/a> and radio show on \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500005/npr-news-now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NPR Now\u003c/a> that engages high-level leaders from business, policy, advocacy and academic circles in a conversation about building a sustainable economy and stabilizing the Earth’s climate. Climate One is recorded with a live audience at \u003ca href=\"https://www.commonwealthclub.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Commonwealth Club\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Do you have thoughts about the story? \u003ca href=\"mailto:mpeterson@kqed.org\">Email Molly Peterson\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "Drought's Over But the Dead Tree Toll in California Keeps Rising",
"headTitle": "Drought’s Over But the Dead Tree Toll in California Keeps Rising | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Federal officials report that 18 million more trees have died in California since the fall of 2017 – and that’s a bit of a relief.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s better news than \u003ca href=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=3457736fb0dd45f98d41ab4030ebf048\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the previous few years\u003c/a>,” says Randy Moore, regional forester at the U.S. Forest Service.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wetter weather has slowly improved conditions for thirsty pines, firs and other conifers in the last two years. A previous mortality survey in 2017 found \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1918327/california-drought-kills-27-million-more-trees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">27 million dead trees\u003c/a>. Before that, in 2016, federal scientists counted 62 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have evidence [at sites with] between 80 and 100 percent of ponderosa pines and mixed conifer — where every tree in there had died,” Moore says. “We’re starting to see a decline in that now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the latest aerial surveys boost the state’s tree-body count to at least 147 million, a staggering total since 2010, when a five-year drought set in, worsening infestations of bark beetles, and driven by climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bark beetles gained “a real big advantage” over weakened trees when the drought began nine years ago, according to Moore. “The bugs were beginning to eat at a higher level than they normally would, because with a change in climate, it’s warmer at a higher elevation,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even as precipitation remained below average, pulling out of drought has allowed forests to regain some leverage against hungry beetles. “When there’s moisture in the ground, the trees can make enough sap to squeeze the bugs out,” Moore says. “The trees are better able to defend itself against these kinds of bugs.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a statement, Cal Fire director Thom Porter called 2018’s slower rate of mortality for trees “encouraging.” But, he added, continuing deaths “are an indication that the forests of California are still under significant stress.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The worst-hit forests are found along the west side of the central and southern Sierra Nevada range, though surveys show dead and dying trees across the state, especially at higher elevations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trees in poor health amplify fire risks, a concern after the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2018/12/12/674612113/rethinking-the-past-in-the-aftermath-of-california-s-deadly-wildfires\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deadliest wildfires\u003c/a> in California’s history. Even where fire is scarce, sickened trees can fall across roads and power lines unexpectedly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Established last May, a \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/CATreeTaskForce?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3ACATreeTaskForce&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fire.ca.gov%2Ftreetaskforce%2F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forest Management Task Force\u003c/a> comprised of more than two dozen federal, state, and local agencies has cleared trees and other forest debris along roads, near power lines, and around 165 communities in the wildland-urban interface, according to Moore. In the longer term, he says government land managers have committed to management strategies that thin forests, including by using \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1927354/controlled-burns-can-help-solve-californias-fire-problem-so-why-arent-there-more-of-them\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prescribed burns\u003c/a> across the landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Between the federal government and the state, we’ve decided that we need to treat a million acres in California a year, that’s what we’re working toward,” says Moore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reducing biomass and fire fuels in a forest is complex and expensive work, much of it funded by the State of California. In his first budget, Governor Gavin Newsom proposed spending $305 million on forest management, including $200 million from a 5-year, $1 billion program approved by lawmakers to support fire prevention efforts.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Federal officials report that 18 million more trees have died in California since the fall of 2017 – and that’s a bit of a relief.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s better news than \u003ca href=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=3457736fb0dd45f98d41ab4030ebf048\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the previous few years\u003c/a>,” says Randy Moore, regional forester at the U.S. Forest Service.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wetter weather has slowly improved conditions for thirsty pines, firs and other conifers in the last two years. A previous mortality survey in 2017 found \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1918327/california-drought-kills-27-million-more-trees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">27 million dead trees\u003c/a>. Before that, in 2016, federal scientists counted 62 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have evidence [at sites with] between 80 and 100 percent of ponderosa pines and mixed conifer — where every tree in there had died,” Moore says. “We’re starting to see a decline in that now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the latest aerial surveys boost the state’s tree-body count to at least 147 million, a staggering total since 2010, when a five-year drought set in, worsening infestations of bark beetles, and driven by climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bark beetles gained “a real big advantage” over weakened trees when the drought began nine years ago, according to Moore. “The bugs were beginning to eat at a higher level than they normally would, because with a change in climate, it’s warmer at a higher elevation,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even as precipitation remained below average, pulling out of drought has allowed forests to regain some leverage against hungry beetles. “When there’s moisture in the ground, the trees can make enough sap to squeeze the bugs out,” Moore says. “The trees are better able to defend itself against these kinds of bugs.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a statement, Cal Fire director Thom Porter called 2018’s slower rate of mortality for trees “encouraging.” But, he added, continuing deaths “are an indication that the forests of California are still under significant stress.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The worst-hit forests are found along the west side of the central and southern Sierra Nevada range, though surveys show dead and dying trees across the state, especially at higher elevations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trees in poor health amplify fire risks, a concern after the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2018/12/12/674612113/rethinking-the-past-in-the-aftermath-of-california-s-deadly-wildfires\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deadliest wildfires\u003c/a> in California’s history. Even where fire is scarce, sickened trees can fall across roads and power lines unexpectedly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Established last May, a \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/CATreeTaskForce?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3ACATreeTaskForce&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fire.ca.gov%2Ftreetaskforce%2F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forest Management Task Force\u003c/a> comprised of more than two dozen federal, state, and local agencies has cleared trees and other forest debris along roads, near power lines, and around 165 communities in the wildland-urban interface, according to Moore. In the longer term, he says government land managers have committed to management strategies that thin forests, including by using \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1927354/controlled-burns-can-help-solve-californias-fire-problem-so-why-arent-there-more-of-them\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prescribed burns\u003c/a> across the landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Between the federal government and the state, we’ve decided that we need to treat a million acres in California a year, that’s what we’re working toward,” says Moore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reducing biomass and fire fuels in a forest is complex and expensive work, much of it funded by the State of California. In his first budget, Governor Gavin Newsom proposed spending $305 million on forest management, including $200 million from a 5-year, $1 billion program approved by lawmakers to support fire prevention efforts.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"headTitle": "Changing Winds Could Shift Southern California Fire Season | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>In popular culture, Southern California’s Santa Ana winds have been portrayed as \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Ana_winds_in_popular_culture\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">harbingers\u003c/a> of chaos, strange behavior and most notably, fire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And they’re changing, with potential big implications for the SoCal fire season.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘I think that these changes together mean a later wildfire season in Southern California’s future.’\u003ccite>Alexander Gershunov, Scripps Institution\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>These intense, dry gusts, sometimes referred to as “devil winds,” can lead to coastal heat waves, downed trees and the spread of the region’s most destructive wildfires. Santa Ana wind conditions played a role in the massive \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/05/us/ventura-county-fire-california/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thomas Fire\u003c/a> that broke out in December 2017, scorching more than 280,000 acres across Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Santa Anas also contribute to Southern California’s characteristic sunshine and year-round warmth.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a \u003ca href=\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080261\">new study\u003c/a> out this week suggests that rising temperatures as a result of climate change could have a big impact on the timing of Santa Ana wind season, compressing more of it into December.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Diminishing Winds\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The results of the study, published this week in Geophysical Research Letters, project that Santa Ana wind frequency could drop \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/climate-change-may-suppress-santa-ana-winds-particularly-fall?hash=GKVME8bwLdEz_8vul3N4bH3gz7MROXNUxH6VRrk2Tm8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">nearly 20 percent\u003c/a> by the end of this century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that, in general, Santa Ana winds are likely to diminish with warming,” says Alexander Gershunov, a researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and the study’s co-author.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study’s forecast was drawn from eight global climate models adjusted to detect more localized weather characteristics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The predicted decrease in Santa Ana wind activity is expected to be most pronounced in the “shoulder” seasons, with big declines in October and May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Really it’s that Santa Ana winds are expected to diminish in the fall and spring,” Gershunov says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peak wind activity will likely occur in December, which is typical historically.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the paper, Gershunov and co-author Janin Guzman‐Morales suggest that changes in the timing of Santa Ana winds could alter Southern California’s wildfire outlook. But just how this will affect fire season is “much more nuanced,” according to Gershunov.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Santa Ana winds do drive the most catastrophic wildfires in Southern California,” Gershunov says. “But they’re not the only ingredient.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, don’t expect the shorter windy season to mean less wildfire risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Dry fuel” from vegetation is another key factor in the spread of wildfires. According to Gershunov, trends for rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns mean that the prevalence of fire’s natural fuel could persist into winter, when the winds are at their most frequent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think that these changes together mean a later wildfire season in Southern California’s future,” Gershunov says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The worst of California’s fire season typically peaks in the fall months. But the Thomas Fire was exacerbated by a warm, dry fall combined with a series of Santa Ana wind events starting in December 2017. Gershunov says the likelihood of similar fire conditions could increase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can’t say anything with any confidence at this point, whether the fire season will intensify or decrease on average in the future,” he says. “But this later fire season does suggest that future fires may burn longer, because as the wildfire season shifts to December, which is the peak of Santa Ana wind activity, we’re more likely to get back-to-back Santa Ana winds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So events like the Thomas Fire, which burned for three weeks fanned by a couple of back-to-back Santa Ana wind events, will be more likely in the future than they were in the past.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mimi Hughes largely agrees. She researches climate at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado, Boulder. Hughes has modeled how climate affects the \u003ca href=\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0300-9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Santa Ana winds\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cold Air and Hot Wind\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The winds are powered by the sharp pressure difference or “gradient” between the Great Basin — a vast interior region spanning parts of Nevada, Utah and Oregon — and the Pacific Ocean off the Southern California coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But while the Santa Ana winds feel hot, that pressure gradient depends on the presence of high-density cold air masses over the Great Basin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These [winds] actually happen when it’s cold in the desert interior, which is kind of counterintuitive,” Hughes says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you have less cold air in the desert, then that actually means that you get fewer of these pressure gradients that can set up the conditions that are ripe for Santa Ana winds,” Hughes says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to Hughes, the Scripps study implies “an increased likelihood of fire later in the season.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And like Gershunov, she says that to understand the bigger picture of what this spells for Southern California wildfires, other factors must be taken into account.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In particular, she says the dry and wet extremes in the region are projected to increase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So if you had a very, very dry winter, and then compound that with the fact that the Santa Ana season is a bit later,” Hughes explains, “Then you could really see this being potential for devastatingly large fires.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>In popular culture, Southern California’s Santa Ana winds have been portrayed as \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Ana_winds_in_popular_culture\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">harbingers\u003c/a> of chaos, strange behavior and most notably, fire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And they’re changing, with potential big implications for the SoCal fire season.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘I think that these changes together mean a later wildfire season in Southern California’s future.’\u003ccite>Alexander Gershunov, Scripps Institution\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>These intense, dry gusts, sometimes referred to as “devil winds,” can lead to coastal heat waves, downed trees and the spread of the region’s most destructive wildfires. Santa Ana wind conditions played a role in the massive \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/05/us/ventura-county-fire-california/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thomas Fire\u003c/a> that broke out in December 2017, scorching more than 280,000 acres across Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Santa Anas also contribute to Southern California’s characteristic sunshine and year-round warmth.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a \u003ca href=\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080261\">new study\u003c/a> out this week suggests that rising temperatures as a result of climate change could have a big impact on the timing of Santa Ana wind season, compressing more of it into December.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Diminishing Winds\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The results of the study, published this week in Geophysical Research Letters, project that Santa Ana wind frequency could drop \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/climate-change-may-suppress-santa-ana-winds-particularly-fall?hash=GKVME8bwLdEz_8vul3N4bH3gz7MROXNUxH6VRrk2Tm8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">nearly 20 percent\u003c/a> by the end of this century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that, in general, Santa Ana winds are likely to diminish with warming,” says Alexander Gershunov, a researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and the study’s co-author.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study’s forecast was drawn from eight global climate models adjusted to detect more localized weather characteristics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The predicted decrease in Santa Ana wind activity is expected to be most pronounced in the “shoulder” seasons, with big declines in October and May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Really it’s that Santa Ana winds are expected to diminish in the fall and spring,” Gershunov says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peak wind activity will likely occur in December, which is typical historically.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the paper, Gershunov and co-author Janin Guzman‐Morales suggest that changes in the timing of Santa Ana winds could alter Southern California’s wildfire outlook. But just how this will affect fire season is “much more nuanced,” according to Gershunov.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Santa Ana winds do drive the most catastrophic wildfires in Southern California,” Gershunov says. “But they’re not the only ingredient.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, don’t expect the shorter windy season to mean less wildfire risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Dry fuel” from vegetation is another key factor in the spread of wildfires. According to Gershunov, trends for rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns mean that the prevalence of fire’s natural fuel could persist into winter, when the winds are at their most frequent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think that these changes together mean a later wildfire season in Southern California’s future,” Gershunov says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The worst of California’s fire season typically peaks in the fall months. But the Thomas Fire was exacerbated by a warm, dry fall combined with a series of Santa Ana wind events starting in December 2017. Gershunov says the likelihood of similar fire conditions could increase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can’t say anything with any confidence at this point, whether the fire season will intensify or decrease on average in the future,” he says. “But this later fire season does suggest that future fires may burn longer, because as the wildfire season shifts to December, which is the peak of Santa Ana wind activity, we’re more likely to get back-to-back Santa Ana winds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So events like the Thomas Fire, which burned for three weeks fanned by a couple of back-to-back Santa Ana wind events, will be more likely in the future than they were in the past.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mimi Hughes largely agrees. She researches climate at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado, Boulder. Hughes has modeled how climate affects the \u003ca href=\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0300-9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Santa Ana winds\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cold Air and Hot Wind\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The winds are powered by the sharp pressure difference or “gradient” between the Great Basin — a vast interior region spanning parts of Nevada, Utah and Oregon — and the Pacific Ocean off the Southern California coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But while the Santa Ana winds feel hot, that pressure gradient depends on the presence of high-density cold air masses over the Great Basin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These [winds] actually happen when it’s cold in the desert interior, which is kind of counterintuitive,” Hughes says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you have less cold air in the desert, then that actually means that you get fewer of these pressure gradients that can set up the conditions that are ripe for Santa Ana winds,” Hughes says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to Hughes, the Scripps study implies “an increased likelihood of fire later in the season.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And like Gershunov, she says that to understand the bigger picture of what this spells for Southern California wildfires, other factors must be taken into account.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In particular, she says the dry and wet extremes in the region are projected to increase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So if you had a very, very dry winter, and then compound that with the fact that the Santa Ana season is a bit later,” Hughes explains, “Then you could really see this being potential for devastatingly large fires.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Satellite Can Immediately Warn of Wildfire. But Not Until the Shutdown Ends",
"headTitle": "Satellite Can Immediately Warn of Wildfire. But Not Until the Shutdown Ends | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>There are fresh eyes in the western sky, but they’re sporting a virtual blindfold with the federal government shut down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This week NOAA was to officially throw the switch on the GOES-17 satellite, also known as GOES West. (GOES is an acronym for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite.) It’s been up and \u003ca href=\"https://www.goes.noaa.gov/goes-w.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">feeding back pictures\u003c/a> in test mode since March, but NOAA has delayed making it fully operational as federal scientists and engineers wait out the shutdown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bird carries an imaging device that has triple the color range and four times the resolution of previous satellites scanning the western U.S. landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though it’s designed primarily as a weather satellite, it can also spot wildfires virtually as they’re starting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1936516\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 879px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1936516\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: GOES-17 in orbit\" width=\"879\" height=\"485\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin.jpg 879w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-160x88.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-800x441.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-768x424.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-672x372.jpg 672w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-240x132.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-375x207.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-520x287.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 879px) 100vw, 879px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The GOES West satellite is “geostationary,” meaning it rotates in sync with the Earth. \u003ccite>(Lockheed-Martin)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It’s a “game-changer,” according to Paul Wloszek, a program director at Harris Corp., which built the on-board Advanced Baseline Imager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And it does all of this from geostationary orbit, which is 22,000 miles away,” Wloszek said. A geostationary satellite rotates in sync with the Earth, rather than making periodic “passes” over the planet. Essentially, it stays parked in the same spot, focused on the same area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing all of this adds up to is the potential for much faster response when wildfires break out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even 10 to 15 minutes before the first 911 call comes in,” says Wloszek, “first responders know that there’s a hotspot or a fire starting to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He says it’s not just theory; they’ve already seen it happen at a fire in Colorado, with images from its sister satellite, GOES East. Launched in 2017, it was the first to have the advanced imager. It captured distant images from the Camp Fire in Butte County, even from its position over the eastern half of the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1936557\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 478px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOES17_FergusonFire.gif\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1936557\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOES17_FergusonFire.gif\" alt=\"GIF: smoke plumes from space\" width=\"478\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Test images from GOES West capture smoke plumes from California’s Ferguson Fire in July, 2018. \u003ccite>(NOAA)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>GOES West doesn’t try to pinpoint hotspots visually, but with the shortwave infrared part of its imager, which can pick up heat signatures with more precision, day or night. Forecasters can also call up new views every 30 seconds, which also has advantages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like you’re watching a movie from space of how it’s all evolving,” says Wloszek, “which really allows unprecedented situational awareness for first responders on the ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s important about all that,” he said, “is not only can it detect it earlier, but because they can do 30-second updates, they can actually track the progression of the fire in real time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bird can even “take the temperature” of a growing fire, to determine where it’s burning the most intensely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With it’s better image quality, GOES West will also offer advantages to weather forecasters; it can, for example, distinguish between clouds and smoke. The satellite is \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_GOES_satellites\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">part of a “constellation”\u003c/a> of orbiting eyes, which is set to get a \u003ca href=\"https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/goes-t-satellite-%E2%80%9Cbrains%E2%80%9D-and-%E2%80%9Cbody%E2%80%9D-come-together\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new addition\u003c/a>, GOES-T, in 2020.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>There are fresh eyes in the western sky, but they’re sporting a virtual blindfold with the federal government shut down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This week NOAA was to officially throw the switch on the GOES-17 satellite, also known as GOES West. (GOES is an acronym for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite.) It’s been up and \u003ca href=\"https://www.goes.noaa.gov/goes-w.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">feeding back pictures\u003c/a> in test mode since March, but NOAA has delayed making it fully operational as federal scientists and engineers wait out the shutdown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bird carries an imaging device that has triple the color range and four times the resolution of previous satellites scanning the western U.S. landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though it’s designed primarily as a weather satellite, it can also spot wildfires virtually as they’re starting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1936516\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 879px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1936516\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: GOES-17 in orbit\" width=\"879\" height=\"485\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin.jpg 879w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-160x88.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-800x441.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-768x424.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-672x372.jpg 672w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-240x132.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-375x207.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOESwest_LockheedMartin-520x287.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 879px) 100vw, 879px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The GOES West satellite is “geostationary,” meaning it rotates in sync with the Earth. \u003ccite>(Lockheed-Martin)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It’s a “game-changer,” according to Paul Wloszek, a program director at Harris Corp., which built the on-board Advanced Baseline Imager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And it does all of this from geostationary orbit, which is 22,000 miles away,” Wloszek said. A geostationary satellite rotates in sync with the Earth, rather than making periodic “passes” over the planet. Essentially, it stays parked in the same spot, focused on the same area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing all of this adds up to is the potential for much faster response when wildfires break out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even 10 to 15 minutes before the first 911 call comes in,” says Wloszek, “first responders know that there’s a hotspot or a fire starting to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He says it’s not just theory; they’ve already seen it happen at a fire in Colorado, with images from its sister satellite, GOES East. Launched in 2017, it was the first to have the advanced imager. It captured distant images from the Camp Fire in Butte County, even from its position over the eastern half of the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1936557\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 478px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOES17_FergusonFire.gif\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1936557\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/GOES17_FergusonFire.gif\" alt=\"GIF: smoke plumes from space\" width=\"478\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Test images from GOES West capture smoke plumes from California’s Ferguson Fire in July, 2018. \u003ccite>(NOAA)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>GOES West doesn’t try to pinpoint hotspots visually, but with the shortwave infrared part of its imager, which can pick up heat signatures with more precision, day or night. Forecasters can also call up new views every 30 seconds, which also has advantages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like you’re watching a movie from space of how it’s all evolving,” says Wloszek, “which really allows unprecedented situational awareness for first responders on the ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s important about all that,” he said, “is not only can it detect it earlier, but because they can do 30-second updates, they can actually track the progression of the fire in real time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bird can even “take the temperature” of a growing fire, to determine where it’s burning the most intensely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With it’s better image quality, GOES West will also offer advantages to weather forecasters; it can, for example, distinguish between clouds and smoke. The satellite is \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_GOES_satellites\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">part of a “constellation”\u003c/a> of orbiting eyes, which is set to get a \u003ca href=\"https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/goes-t-satellite-%E2%80%9Cbrains%E2%80%9D-and-%E2%80%9Cbody%E2%80%9D-come-together\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new addition\u003c/a>, GOES-T, in 2020.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Deadly 'Firenado' Caused By Erratic Winds, Record Temps and an Ice Cloud",
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"content": "\u003cp>REDDING, Calif. (AP) — A rare fire tornado that raged during this summer’s deadly Carr Fire in Northern California was created by a combination of scorching weather, erratic winds and an ice-topped cloud that towered miles into the atmosphere, according to a new study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The churning funnel of smoke and flame killed a firefighter as it exploded in what already was a vast and devastating wildfire in July on the edge of Redding, about 250 miles north of San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wildfire claimed eight lives and destroyed more than 1,000 homes before it was contained on Aug. 30.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study in the Geophysical Research Letters journal used satellite and radar data to suggest how a monstrous “firenado” the size of three football fields developed on July 26.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It said the firenado was formed in much the same way as a regular tornado, which differs from the “fire whirls” that are formed only by heat from a wildfire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1935377\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1935377\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-800x551.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"551\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-800x551.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-160x110.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-768x529.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-1020x702.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-1200x826.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-1920x1322.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-1180x812.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-960x661.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-240x165.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-375x258.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-520x358.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Firefighters try to control the Carr Fire as it continues to spread near Redding, California on July 31, 2018. \u003ccite>(MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The only other documented case of such a “firenado” was during the 2003 Canberra fires in Australia, according to the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A key factor was the development of a cloud generated by the fire itself that was ice-topped and grew quickly, doubling in length in just 15 minutes. It reached as high as 39,000 feet, according to the study, which was published on Nov. 21.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The development of that pyrocumulonimbus cloud “helped stretch the underlying column of air, concentrating the rotation near the surface” and causing tornado-strength winds that reached 143 mph, according to the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This paints a clear picture of the sequence of events leading to the vortex development and intensification,” said Neil Lareau of the University of Nevada, Reno, who co-authored the paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other factors included record high temperatures, low humidity and a “near-surface cyclonic wind shear zone,” according to the study. A wind shear occurs when the wind speed or direction suddenly changes, so that the wind actually is blowing in two opposite directions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wind shear near the ground set up the spin that developed the fire tornado plume, Lareau said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These observations may help forecasters and scientists identify – and potentially warn – for future destructive fire-generated vortices,” according to the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lareau is an assistant professor in the Physics Department of the College of Science. The article was co-authored by Nicholas Nausler of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma and John Abatzoglou from the Department of Geography at the University of Idaho in Moscow, Idaho.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>REDDING, Calif. (AP) — A rare fire tornado that raged during this summer’s deadly Carr Fire in Northern California was created by a combination of scorching weather, erratic winds and an ice-topped cloud that towered miles into the atmosphere, according to a new study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The churning funnel of smoke and flame killed a firefighter as it exploded in what already was a vast and devastating wildfire in July on the edge of Redding, about 250 miles north of San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wildfire claimed eight lives and destroyed more than 1,000 homes before it was contained on Aug. 30.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study in the Geophysical Research Letters journal used satellite and radar data to suggest how a monstrous “firenado” the size of three football fields developed on July 26.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It said the firenado was formed in much the same way as a regular tornado, which differs from the “fire whirls” that are formed only by heat from a wildfire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1935377\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1935377\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-800x551.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"551\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-800x551.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-160x110.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-768x529.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-1020x702.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-1200x826.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-1920x1322.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-1180x812.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-960x661.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-240x165.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-375x258.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/12/GettyImages-1008708592-520x358.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Firefighters try to control the Carr Fire as it continues to spread near Redding, California on July 31, 2018. \u003ccite>(MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The only other documented case of such a “firenado” was during the 2003 Canberra fires in Australia, according to the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A key factor was the development of a cloud generated by the fire itself that was ice-topped and grew quickly, doubling in length in just 15 minutes. It reached as high as 39,000 feet, according to the study, which was published on Nov. 21.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The development of that pyrocumulonimbus cloud “helped stretch the underlying column of air, concentrating the rotation near the surface” and causing tornado-strength winds that reached 143 mph, according to the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This paints a clear picture of the sequence of events leading to the vortex development and intensification,” said Neil Lareau of the University of Nevada, Reno, who co-authored the paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other factors included record high temperatures, low humidity and a “near-surface cyclonic wind shear zone,” according to the study. A wind shear occurs when the wind speed or direction suddenly changes, so that the wind actually is blowing in two opposite directions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wind shear near the ground set up the spin that developed the fire tornado plume, Lareau said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These observations may help forecasters and scientists identify – and potentially warn – for future destructive fire-generated vortices,” according to the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lareau is an assistant professor in the Physics Department of the College of Science. The article was co-authored by Nicholas Nausler of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma and John Abatzoglou from the Department of Geography at the University of Idaho in Moscow, Idaho.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Warning: Climate Change in California Could Be Hazardous to Your Health",
"headTitle": "Warning: Climate Change in California Could Be Hazardous to Your Health | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://sor.senate.ca.gov/sites/sor.senate.ca.gov/files/Public%20Health%20Climate%20Change%20LINKS_4%201126.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new report\u003c/a> released this week outlines, in great detail, the potential health and economic costs to California from climate change — everything from premature deaths due to heatstroke to anticipated spikes in West Nile virus, Valley fever, and even kidney stones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report was commissioned by state Sen. Ricardo Lara, who will soon be giving up his senate seat after \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/elections/results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">being elected\u003c/a> insurance commissioner earlier this month.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For the first time we have a California report that combines the latest research on our health and the ‘new normal’ of extreme wildfire and climate-caused events,” Lara wrote to KQED in an email. (Gov. Jerry Brown recently amended his own climate vocabulary, calling global warming impacts “the new \u003cem>abnormal\u003c/em>.”) The senator was in Washington D.C. presenting to the World Bank on the report and on his bill to limit hydro-fluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants, which are potent greenhouse gases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”vn6VCB9SjRIBblKPRR18mDEt6roBFBjm”]The report contains no new research; it’s a review of existing literature, an attempt to outline both the current state of climate change in California and the expected health effects on the state’s population in coming years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among the warnings: the Central Valley may experience heat-health events that last two weeks longer, while the northern Sierra region can expect four to 10 times more heat-health events than currently.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is consensus among experts that by 2100, California will see maximum average temperatures increase by 5.6 to 8.8 degrees Fahrenheit above 1960–2005 temperatures,” says the report — depending on whether emissions continue rising or decrease.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What does that mean?\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>By 2050, as many as 6,700 to 11,300 premature deaths are expected due to rising temperatures, which can exacerbate existing conditions like heat disease or asthma.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Poor air quality will increase the incidence of respiratory illnesses.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>The intensity and frequency of storms will increase death and injury.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Higher temperatures will also lead to the growth of disease-carrying mosquitos and ticks, as well as food-borne pathogens.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>“What this report shows is that we need to be discussing how to address the lingering effects on public health, our air and our food,” said Lara. Here are some of the details laid out. You can also read \u003ca href=\"https://sor.senate.ca.gov/sites/sor.senate.ca.gov/files/Public%20Health%20Climate%20Change%20LINKS_4%201126.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the full 80-page report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Heat\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Increases in temperatures have dramatic impacts on the health of the community. In the state’s nine most populous counties, from 1999 to 2003, rising temperatures increased the risk of hospitalization for heatstroke by 342 percent, for dehydration by 10.8 percent and for renal failure by 7.4 percent. There was also a 1.7 percent increase in mortality across the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During heat waves those numbers can be higher. Studies tracking the 2006 heat wave found a 9 percent increase in mortality per 10-degree increase in temperature in the affected counties. That caused about 600 heat-related deaths over the two weeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>High temperatures are also associated with pre-term birth. From 1999 to 2006, a 10-degree rise in temperature increased the risk of pre-term birth by 8.6 percent across 16 California counties, though that risk was higher for younger mothers and highest for African-American mothers (14.9 percent).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It turns out that kidney stones are also more prevalent in hotter climates, because minerals build up under dehydration conditions. Projecting existing rates of kidney stones in nearby hot climates onto anticipated temperatures increases in California predicts that the state will see a 10.7 percent increase in risk of kidney stones by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Air Quality\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change is also known to affect air quality as concentration of ground-level ozone is stoked by heat and methane emissions, while fine particulate matter in the air (typically known as PM2.5) is a product of wildfire smoke, which is expected to increase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”Jpmw1DpnGs905iMXpwAAljHeFkY04p4r”]Air pollution in the San Joaquin Valley already contributes to 460 premature deaths each year and approximately 3,230 cases of acute bronchitis in children — with projections for those numbers rising as air pollution worsens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate models project “large” wildfires are expected to increase in number by 21 percent by 2034, and with wildfire smoke comes a well-documented higher rate of hospitalizations and respiratory illnesses. During the 2015 wildfire season statewide, for example, there was a 171 percent increase in the risk of a pulmonary embolism during the heavy smoke periods. And during the 2003 fall fire in Southern California, acute bronchitis hospital admissions increased on average by 67 percent. Even after the fires, admission rates for acute bronchitis and pneumonia still went up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Valley fever is also on the rise as the soil dries out and people are more apt to breathe in the fungus that leads to the illness. Valley fever includes coughing, fever, chest pains and, in the worst conditions, can result in meningitis. Valley fever rose 34 percent from 2016 to 2017, with the heavy majority of the cases in the San Joaquin Valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Extreme Weather\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Droughts, floods and fires all have immediate health consequences. And there are documented increases in mental health issues, like PTSD, depression and suicidal thoughts. Disaster recovery is also known to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11706264/study-people-of-color-and-low-income-residents-most-vulnerable-to-wildfire-impacts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hit vulnerable populations harder\u003c/a>, especially those without insurance.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”8hBZ41YlWfjH8B4Rjxb7MBQPe3hQX0Sf”]But extreme weather events also have indirect health consequences. For example, in 1993 after several years of drought, a heavy rainfall in Tulare County led to an increase in Valley fever, because of the growth of fungus. The number of cases there spiked from an average of 450 annually to 1,208 cases that first year and over 4,000 cases the two following years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flooding and heavy rains also lead to contamination of water supplies, which has been shown to lead to an increase in gastrointestinal illness.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Disease\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The changing climate also affects how communities are exposed to infectious diseases and can increase the number of rodents or insects carrying pathogens — a trend that’s already already being seen. In 2007, there were 75 cases of Lyme disease reported statewide, while in 2016 there were 141 in just 33 counties. While climate was unlikely to be the sole driver of that increase, warming temperatures are expected to double the reproductive capacity of ticks, which carry Lyme disease, and peak tick activity is much longer in drier and warmer climates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”GgX27KIsYVEVf36btfb9LA0yENVzkGu9″]Higher temperatures and drought also increase the number of mosquitoes and the transmission rates for West Nile virus. The recent drought led to the highest number of cases of West Nile virus in California, with 379 in 2013 alone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Agricultural and urban run-off in extreme flooding and heavy rainfall leads to an increase in bacterial contamination, and warming of surface water causes new bacterial and viral pathogens to emerge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For decades, scientific evidence has unequivocally shown that climate change is a reality,” concludes the report. “While opportunities to entirely prevent the effects of climate change have already passed, there is still a role for strong leadership in the public and private sectors to reduce the levels of projected damage and hardship…By building communities that are resilient to a changing environment, the most extreme effects of climate change may be minimized.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://sor.senate.ca.gov/sites/sor.senate.ca.gov/files/Public%20Health%20Climate%20Change%20LINKS_4%201126.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new report\u003c/a> released this week outlines, in great detail, the potential health and economic costs to California from climate change — everything from premature deaths due to heatstroke to anticipated spikes in West Nile virus, Valley fever, and even kidney stones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report was commissioned by state Sen. Ricardo Lara, who will soon be giving up his senate seat after \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/elections/results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">being elected\u003c/a> insurance commissioner earlier this month.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For the first time we have a California report that combines the latest research on our health and the ‘new normal’ of extreme wildfire and climate-caused events,” Lara wrote to KQED in an email. (Gov. Jerry Brown recently amended his own climate vocabulary, calling global warming impacts “the new \u003cem>abnormal\u003c/em>.”) The senator was in Washington D.C. presenting to the World Bank on the report and on his bill to limit hydro-fluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants, which are potent greenhouse gases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>The report contains no new research; it’s a review of existing literature, an attempt to outline both the current state of climate change in California and the expected health effects on the state’s population in coming years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among the warnings: the Central Valley may experience heat-health events that last two weeks longer, while the northern Sierra region can expect four to 10 times more heat-health events than currently.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is consensus among experts that by 2100, California will see maximum average temperatures increase by 5.6 to 8.8 degrees Fahrenheit above 1960–2005 temperatures,” says the report — depending on whether emissions continue rising or decrease.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What does that mean?\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>By 2050, as many as 6,700 to 11,300 premature deaths are expected due to rising temperatures, which can exacerbate existing conditions like heat disease or asthma.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Poor air quality will increase the incidence of respiratory illnesses.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>The intensity and frequency of storms will increase death and injury.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Higher temperatures will also lead to the growth of disease-carrying mosquitos and ticks, as well as food-borne pathogens.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>“What this report shows is that we need to be discussing how to address the lingering effects on public health, our air and our food,” said Lara. Here are some of the details laid out. You can also read \u003ca href=\"https://sor.senate.ca.gov/sites/sor.senate.ca.gov/files/Public%20Health%20Climate%20Change%20LINKS_4%201126.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the full 80-page report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Heat\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Increases in temperatures have dramatic impacts on the health of the community. In the state’s nine most populous counties, from 1999 to 2003, rising temperatures increased the risk of hospitalization for heatstroke by 342 percent, for dehydration by 10.8 percent and for renal failure by 7.4 percent. There was also a 1.7 percent increase in mortality across the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During heat waves those numbers can be higher. Studies tracking the 2006 heat wave found a 9 percent increase in mortality per 10-degree increase in temperature in the affected counties. That caused about 600 heat-related deaths over the two weeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>High temperatures are also associated with pre-term birth. From 1999 to 2006, a 10-degree rise in temperature increased the risk of pre-term birth by 8.6 percent across 16 California counties, though that risk was higher for younger mothers and highest for African-American mothers (14.9 percent).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It turns out that kidney stones are also more prevalent in hotter climates, because minerals build up under dehydration conditions. Projecting existing rates of kidney stones in nearby hot climates onto anticipated temperatures increases in California predicts that the state will see a 10.7 percent increase in risk of kidney stones by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Air Quality\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change is also known to affect air quality as concentration of ground-level ozone is stoked by heat and methane emissions, while fine particulate matter in the air (typically known as PM2.5) is a product of wildfire smoke, which is expected to increase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>Air pollution in the San Joaquin Valley already contributes to 460 premature deaths each year and approximately 3,230 cases of acute bronchitis in children — with projections for those numbers rising as air pollution worsens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate models project “large” wildfires are expected to increase in number by 21 percent by 2034, and with wildfire smoke comes a well-documented higher rate of hospitalizations and respiratory illnesses. During the 2015 wildfire season statewide, for example, there was a 171 percent increase in the risk of a pulmonary embolism during the heavy smoke periods. And during the 2003 fall fire in Southern California, acute bronchitis hospital admissions increased on average by 67 percent. Even after the fires, admission rates for acute bronchitis and pneumonia still went up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Valley fever is also on the rise as the soil dries out and people are more apt to breathe in the fungus that leads to the illness. Valley fever includes coughing, fever, chest pains and, in the worst conditions, can result in meningitis. Valley fever rose 34 percent from 2016 to 2017, with the heavy majority of the cases in the San Joaquin Valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Extreme Weather\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Droughts, floods and fires all have immediate health consequences. And there are documented increases in mental health issues, like PTSD, depression and suicidal thoughts. Disaster recovery is also known to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11706264/study-people-of-color-and-low-income-residents-most-vulnerable-to-wildfire-impacts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hit vulnerable populations harder\u003c/a>, especially those without insurance.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>But extreme weather events also have indirect health consequences. For example, in 1993 after several years of drought, a heavy rainfall in Tulare County led to an increase in Valley fever, because of the growth of fungus. The number of cases there spiked from an average of 450 annually to 1,208 cases that first year and over 4,000 cases the two following years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flooding and heavy rains also lead to contamination of water supplies, which has been shown to lead to an increase in gastrointestinal illness.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Disease\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The changing climate also affects how communities are exposed to infectious diseases and can increase the number of rodents or insects carrying pathogens — a trend that’s already already being seen. In 2007, there were 75 cases of Lyme disease reported statewide, while in 2016 there were 141 in just 33 counties. While climate was unlikely to be the sole driver of that increase, warming temperatures are expected to double the reproductive capacity of ticks, which carry Lyme disease, and peak tick activity is much longer in drier and warmer climates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>Higher temperatures and drought also increase the number of mosquitoes and the transmission rates for West Nile virus. The recent drought led to the highest number of cases of West Nile virus in California, with 379 in 2013 alone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Agricultural and urban run-off in extreme flooding and heavy rainfall leads to an increase in bacterial contamination, and warming of surface water causes new bacterial and viral pathogens to emerge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For decades, scientific evidence has unequivocally shown that climate change is a reality,” concludes the report. “While opportunities to entirely prevent the effects of climate change have already passed, there is still a role for strong leadership in the public and private sectors to reduce the levels of projected damage and hardship…By building communities that are resilient to a changing environment, the most extreme effects of climate change may be minimized.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "The New Abnormal: Climate Effects on the Fire Season Are Just Beginning",
"headTitle": "The New Abnormal: Climate Effects on the Fire Season Are Just Beginning | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke was back in Butte County this week, after blaming California’s horrific fire season on \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-california-fires-zinke-paradise-forest-trump-20181119-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">“radical environmentalists,”\u003c/a> a stance he appeared to soften in a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/26/opinions/wildfire-prevention-goes-hand-in-hand-with-creating-jobs-zinke/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recent editorial\u003c/a> for CNN.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In his search for causes and solutions, Zinke does concede the “warm temperatures,” though he’s still reticent to utter the words “climate change” as a contributing factor. On a return visit to the ongoing Camp Fire recovery Monday, Zinke said he’d rather spend federal dollars on thinning forests and improving parks than on repeatedly rebuilding fire-ravaged towns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year was California’s most destructive fire season — until this year. The Golden State is in the midst of what Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, calls “a multi-year fire siege.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While it’s hard to point to climate change as the distinct cause of any individual fire, Swain calls it a “threat multiplier,” which means climate change has lead to conditions that make extreme fires more likely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>KQED’s science editor Craig Miller and Swain joined \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101868240/how-climate-change-helped-create-californias-fire-siege\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED’s Forum\u003c/a> recently to talk about the impact of climate change on wildfires and what we can expect in the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>The New Abnormal\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>In the wake of Butte County’s Camp Fire, the most devastating on record in California, Gov. Jerry Brown decided to revise a common phrase he’s used before, that this is the “new normal.” Instead, “We’re in a new abnormal,” he said. “This new abnormal will continue.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Miller noted that this actually channels an ongoing conversation happening at KQED about using the phrase, “the new normal.” That phrase, he said, “misses the point.” There is no normal when it comes to climate change, or rather we don’t know what the normal is when we try to plan. It’s not just a steady move toward hotter and drier, but rather wild swings in all directions, creating more intense and changing conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Ask the Right Questions\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Are these fires definitely a result of climate change?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain says that’s not the right question. Generally, it never makes sense to attribute a single cause to complex natural events. “It’s a really hard thing to do from a scientific perspective,” he said. Multiple factors lead to a particular fire at a specific time and location. The broader question is: are wildfire disasters of this magnitude significantly more likely due to the fact that the climate is changing? “The answer to that is definitely yes,” said Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This risk-based approach makes more sense for how we frame these issues and how we plan for disasters — by asking what is the likelihood of increasing dangerous conditions? And that likelihood is absolutely going up, according to Swain and most other scientists who have studied the matter.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Longer Fire Season, Shorter Rainy Season\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Although autumn precipitation in California tends not to be a large portion of the overall amount of rain in a given year, it has an out-sized influence on fire season, said Swain. Early-season rain, at the end of a hot, dry summer, is “really consequential from a wildfire and an ecological perspective,” he said. Even just one or two inches moistens the soil column and lets the dry vegetation recover.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That rain usually marks the end of fire season and this year, almost up to Thanksgiving, as the Camp and Woolsey Fires were raging north and south, that fire-season ending rain had yet to fall anywhere in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s really, really late,” said Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is an emerging trend toward drier autumns throughout the state, which Swain expects to continue. He expects, in the future, to see a further contraction of the rainy season, not necessarily less rain overall, but longer dry conditions into fall and dry conditions beginning earlier in the spring, essentially “burning the candle at both ends,” as he put it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another reason autumn precipitation is important is because offshore winds peak late in autumn (not just the legendary Santa Ana winds of Southern California, but all up and down the state). If the rainy season comes later and later, with months of drying time, peak fire season could shift to later in the year, when these strong winds occur. Both the Camp Fire and the Woolsey Fire were driven by strong winds.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>California’s Getting Warmer and Drier\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>As the climate warms, it has a profound effect on how much moisture is in the vegetation. There’s something called the \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vapour-pressure_deficit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">vapor pressure deficit\u003c/a>, which is the propensity of warmer atmospheres to suck water out of living plants. This increases exponentially even as temperatures go up in linear fashion. That means even a few degrees increase in the temperature can make the vegetation much drier and more susceptible to fire, particularly if the dry vegetation coincides with a longer warmer fire season and the strong late-autumn winds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All of these factors combine to increase the chances of dangerous fire conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Is There Hope?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>The California’s recent \u003ca href=\"http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fourth Climate Change Assessment\u003c/a> projected that, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the state could see large fires increase by half and the total acreage burned increase by about 77%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re already starting to see this play out right in front of us,” said Miller. Swain took that pessimistic prediction a step further, noting the current fire situation is merely a hint of what’s to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re only just beginning this trend towards longer fire seasons, more severe fire seasons, hotter summers, wilder precipitation whiplash,” said Swain, the last a reference to seasons that whipsaw from wet to dry, or vice versa.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are also a large number of people who have moved into areas that are at risk. Across the U.S., said Miller, there are 100 million people living in what’s known as the wildland-urban-interface — areas just like Paradise that exist on the edges of rural forests and remote wildland. This means there are more people than ever before in harm’s way, setting the stage for more catastrophic fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The good news, said Miller, is there are some technologies that could help in the future: remote stationary sensors that can observe conditions, drones that can monitor potential danger and pinpoint where we’re likely to have outbreaks, even nontoxic gels that can be applied to vegetation in advance of a fire to act as a retardant.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke was back in Butte County this week, after blaming California’s horrific fire season on \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-california-fires-zinke-paradise-forest-trump-20181119-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">“radical environmentalists,”\u003c/a> a stance he appeared to soften in a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/26/opinions/wildfire-prevention-goes-hand-in-hand-with-creating-jobs-zinke/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recent editorial\u003c/a> for CNN.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In his search for causes and solutions, Zinke does concede the “warm temperatures,” though he’s still reticent to utter the words “climate change” as a contributing factor. On a return visit to the ongoing Camp Fire recovery Monday, Zinke said he’d rather spend federal dollars on thinning forests and improving parks than on repeatedly rebuilding fire-ravaged towns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year was California’s most destructive fire season — until this year. The Golden State is in the midst of what Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, calls “a multi-year fire siege.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While it’s hard to point to climate change as the distinct cause of any individual fire, Swain calls it a “threat multiplier,” which means climate change has lead to conditions that make extreme fires more likely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>KQED’s science editor Craig Miller and Swain joined \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101868240/how-climate-change-helped-create-californias-fire-siege\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED’s Forum\u003c/a> recently to talk about the impact of climate change on wildfires and what we can expect in the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>The New Abnormal\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>In the wake of Butte County’s Camp Fire, the most devastating on record in California, Gov. Jerry Brown decided to revise a common phrase he’s used before, that this is the “new normal.” Instead, “We’re in a new abnormal,” he said. “This new abnormal will continue.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Miller noted that this actually channels an ongoing conversation happening at KQED about using the phrase, “the new normal.” That phrase, he said, “misses the point.” There is no normal when it comes to climate change, or rather we don’t know what the normal is when we try to plan. It’s not just a steady move toward hotter and drier, but rather wild swings in all directions, creating more intense and changing conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Ask the Right Questions\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Are these fires definitely a result of climate change?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain says that’s not the right question. Generally, it never makes sense to attribute a single cause to complex natural events. “It’s a really hard thing to do from a scientific perspective,” he said. Multiple factors lead to a particular fire at a specific time and location. The broader question is: are wildfire disasters of this magnitude significantly more likely due to the fact that the climate is changing? “The answer to that is definitely yes,” said Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This risk-based approach makes more sense for how we frame these issues and how we plan for disasters — by asking what is the likelihood of increasing dangerous conditions? And that likelihood is absolutely going up, according to Swain and most other scientists who have studied the matter.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Longer Fire Season, Shorter Rainy Season\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Although autumn precipitation in California tends not to be a large portion of the overall amount of rain in a given year, it has an out-sized influence on fire season, said Swain. Early-season rain, at the end of a hot, dry summer, is “really consequential from a wildfire and an ecological perspective,” he said. Even just one or two inches moistens the soil column and lets the dry vegetation recover.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That rain usually marks the end of fire season and this year, almost up to Thanksgiving, as the Camp and Woolsey Fires were raging north and south, that fire-season ending rain had yet to fall anywhere in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s really, really late,” said Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is an emerging trend toward drier autumns throughout the state, which Swain expects to continue. He expects, in the future, to see a further contraction of the rainy season, not necessarily less rain overall, but longer dry conditions into fall and dry conditions beginning earlier in the spring, essentially “burning the candle at both ends,” as he put it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another reason autumn precipitation is important is because offshore winds peak late in autumn (not just the legendary Santa Ana winds of Southern California, but all up and down the state). If the rainy season comes later and later, with months of drying time, peak fire season could shift to later in the year, when these strong winds occur. Both the Camp Fire and the Woolsey Fire were driven by strong winds.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>California’s Getting Warmer and Drier\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>As the climate warms, it has a profound effect on how much moisture is in the vegetation. There’s something called the \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vapour-pressure_deficit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">vapor pressure deficit\u003c/a>, which is the propensity of warmer atmospheres to suck water out of living plants. This increases exponentially even as temperatures go up in linear fashion. That means even a few degrees increase in the temperature can make the vegetation much drier and more susceptible to fire, particularly if the dry vegetation coincides with a longer warmer fire season and the strong late-autumn winds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All of these factors combine to increase the chances of dangerous fire conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Is There Hope?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>The California’s recent \u003ca href=\"http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fourth Climate Change Assessment\u003c/a> projected that, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the state could see large fires increase by half and the total acreage burned increase by about 77%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re already starting to see this play out right in front of us,” said Miller. Swain took that pessimistic prediction a step further, noting the current fire situation is merely a hint of what’s to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re only just beginning this trend towards longer fire seasons, more severe fire seasons, hotter summers, wilder precipitation whiplash,” said Swain, the last a reference to seasons that whipsaw from wet to dry, or vice versa.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are also a large number of people who have moved into areas that are at risk. Across the U.S., said Miller, there are 100 million people living in what’s known as the wildland-urban-interface — areas just like Paradise that exist on the edges of rural forests and remote wildland. This means there are more people than ever before in harm’s way, setting the stage for more catastrophic fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The good news, said Miller, is there are some technologies that could help in the future: remote stationary sensors that can observe conditions, drones that can monitor potential danger and pinpoint where we’re likely to have outbreaks, even nontoxic gels that can be applied to vegetation in advance of a fire to act as a retardant.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "No, The Rain Isn't 'Toxic.' But Here's What to Do When the Smoke Clears",
"headTitle": "No, The Rain Isn’t ‘Toxic.’ But Here’s What to Do When the Smoke Clears | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bay Area residents will soon breathe a healthy sigh of relief. Rain is forecast to start washing away the region’s toxic air as early as tonight. \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">The National Weather Service predicts \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">rain and southerly gusts for the Bay area through Friday evening. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Air quality experts are \u003cem>not\u003c/em> predicting a toxic deluge, as some have suggested on \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/search?q=%22toxic%20rain%22\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">social media\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">“Although Paradise experienced a large wildfire, that’s not enough smoke to cause acid rain,” says Dar Mims, meteorologist for the California Air Resources Board. \u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>As the winds and rain start to arrive you’re going to wash out the pollution. We will end up with a clean environment after this storm.” \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We will end up with a clean environment after this storm.’\u003ccite>California Air Resources Board\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Mims also says the Bay Area’s current haze is much less toxic than in previous days because the most hazardous material from homes and commercial landscapes burnt in the initial days of the Camp fire. The remaining smoke likely emanates from vegetative matter such as smoldering tree trunks, which Mims says is not as bad for human health. He does acknowledge, however, \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">that\u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> it’s difficult to assess exactly what kind of particles are carried in wildfire smoke.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are all in unchartered territory,” says Mims. “\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">We have never had a smoke event like this. Usually, the rain would have arrived by this time of year\u003c/span>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Gina Solomon, \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">a physician and air quality expert at UC San Francisco, agrees that residents should not worry about a noxious torrent.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">“The first rain will react with the acidic particles and create an acidic and slightly oily mixture on outdoor surfaces, which will be somewhat corrosive and irritating,” says Solomon. “I wouldn’t call the mixture terribly toxic to humans, but it’s best to avoid ingesting it or getting it on your skin until enough rain has fallen to dilute the mixture.” \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Solomon roughly estimates that a half-inch or more of local precipitation would likely be enough water to safely dilute the mixture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Precautions to Take Once the Rain Arrives\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">To err on the side of caution\u003c/span>,\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Solomon suggests \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">washing out birdbaths and pet dishes thoroughly. If the rains are lighter than expected\u003c/span>,\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Solomon advises rinsing outdoor furniture with a little soap and water. This is likely not necessary if the storm is a soaker. Either way, it’s probably a good idea to wash cars to prevent potential corrosion. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">If you have little ones\u003c/span>,\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Solomon says playgrounds and outdoor play is likely safe, but she does recommend washing children’s hands diligently after any time outside. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Inside the home, Solomon recommends vacuuming carpets, mopping floors, wiping down hard surfaces with a damp cloth, and then opening the windows to air out the house once it starts raining. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">“Check and replace the filters in your central air system,” recommends Jeff Williams, an air pollution specialist for the California Air Resources Board. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Williams advises wearing respiratory protection like an \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part/n95list1.html\">N95 mask\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> if you’re cleaning an area with a noticeable odor or an area that has visible ash, though he says the risk of toxic exposure is pretty minimal. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Until the first drops arrive, Williams advises residents in the Bay Area continue to stay primarily inside and continue running indoor air filters. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Air pollution experts say the thick wildfire smoke will not lead to toxic rain, as some on social media have suggested. But there are steps you can take when the air finally clears to protect your health. ",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bay Area residents will soon breathe a healthy sigh of relief. Rain is forecast to start washing away the region’s toxic air as early as tonight. \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">The National Weather Service predicts \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">rain and southerly gusts for the Bay area through Friday evening. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Air quality experts are \u003cem>not\u003c/em> predicting a toxic deluge, as some have suggested on \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/search?q=%22toxic%20rain%22\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">social media\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">“Although Paradise experienced a large wildfire, that’s not enough smoke to cause acid rain,” says Dar Mims, meteorologist for the California Air Resources Board. \u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>As the winds and rain start to arrive you’re going to wash out the pollution. We will end up with a clean environment after this storm.” \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We will end up with a clean environment after this storm.’\u003ccite>California Air Resources Board\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Mims also says the Bay Area’s current haze is much less toxic than in previous days because the most hazardous material from homes and commercial landscapes burnt in the initial days of the Camp fire. The remaining smoke likely emanates from vegetative matter such as smoldering tree trunks, which Mims says is not as bad for human health. He does acknowledge, however, \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">that\u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> it’s difficult to assess exactly what kind of particles are carried in wildfire smoke.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are all in unchartered territory,” says Mims. “\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">We have never had a smoke event like this. Usually, the rain would have arrived by this time of year\u003c/span>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Gina Solomon, \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">a physician and air quality expert at UC San Francisco, agrees that residents should not worry about a noxious torrent.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">“The first rain will react with the acidic particles and create an acidic and slightly oily mixture on outdoor surfaces, which will be somewhat corrosive and irritating,” says Solomon. “I wouldn’t call the mixture terribly toxic to humans, but it’s best to avoid ingesting it or getting it on your skin until enough rain has fallen to dilute the mixture.” \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Solomon roughly estimates that a half-inch or more of local precipitation would likely be enough water to safely dilute the mixture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Precautions to Take Once the Rain Arrives\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">To err on the side of caution\u003c/span>,\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Solomon suggests \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">washing out birdbaths and pet dishes thoroughly. If the rains are lighter than expected\u003c/span>,\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Solomon advises rinsing outdoor furniture with a little soap and water. This is likely not necessary if the storm is a soaker. Either way, it’s probably a good idea to wash cars to prevent potential corrosion. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">If you have little ones\u003c/span>,\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Solomon says playgrounds and outdoor play is likely safe, but she does recommend washing children’s hands diligently after any time outside. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Inside the home, Solomon recommends vacuuming carpets, mopping floors, wiping down hard surfaces with a damp cloth, and then opening the windows to air out the house once it starts raining. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">“Check and replace the filters in your central air system,” recommends Jeff Williams, an air pollution specialist for the California Air Resources Board. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Williams advises wearing respiratory protection like an \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part/n95list1.html\">N95 mask\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> if you’re cleaning an area with a noticeable odor or an area that has visible ash, though he says the risk of toxic exposure is pretty minimal. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Until the first drops arrive, Williams advises residents in the Bay Area continue to stay primarily inside and continue running indoor air filters. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Heavy Rains Bring Flood Risk to Fire-Ravaged Landscape",
"headTitle": "Heavy Rains Bring Flood Risk to Fire-Ravaged Landscape | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>A series of storms expected to arrive in California starting Tuesday night could bring heavy rains onto landscapes denuded by wildfires. Officials are warning that could mean flooding, mudslides, and more dangerous “debris flows,” where the flowing mud picks up loose debris on the surface, like trees, boulders and remains of destroyed buildings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A storm forecast to arrive tonight and continue through Wednesday could bring several inches of rain to Butte County, where the deadly \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11705243/california-wildfires-what-you-need-to-know\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Camp Fire\u003c/a> has scorched more than 150,000 acres.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This could quickly become a dangerous situation,” says the National Weather Service \u003ca href=\"https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA125AC870FB04.FlashFloodWatch.125AC8ADF400CA.STOFFASTO.24b972a619f458a4712af52b8853f2a1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">flood watch\u003c/a>. “Residents, emergency responders, persons traveling within the burn area should remain alert, and take action should heavy rain develop.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are few residents in the fire zone who could be affected by flooding, says Tony Hernandez, Cal Fire public information officer. “Some residents have been allowed to return to their homes,” he says, but “the fire impact area has virtually no public access granted so far.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The rain could pose a threat to teams working in the fire zone — including utility workers and people working to find and identify human remains — who will have to contend with, at minimum, slick roadways. People traveling along portions of Highway 70 and the Skyway in Butte County should be prepared for flooding, rock falls, or debris flows.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1934653\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1934653\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-800x532.jpg\" alt=\"Evacuees rest in their tents for the night in a Walmart parking lot in Chico, California on November 17, 2018. Nearly 700 people remain listed as missing in the worst-ever wildfire to hit the state. \" width=\"800\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-768x510.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-1200x798.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-1920x1276.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-1180x784.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-960x638.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-240x160.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-375x249.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-520x346.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Evacuees rest in their tents for the night in a Walmart parking lot in Chico, California on November 17, 2018. Nearly 700 people remain listed as missing in the worst-ever wildfire to hit the state. \u003ccite>(JOSH EDELSON/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>At a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11707224/shunning-shelters-evacuees-find-freedom-but-no-comfort-in-walmart-tent-encampment\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tent encampment\u003c/a> near a Walmart in Chico, set in a vacant lot that’s known to flood, some evacuees have left ahead of the rain. But others are staying. Volunteers have been bringing in tarps, as well as pallets to get sleeping bags up off the ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Crews from an array of state, regional and local departments — emergency services, transportation, roads, water — are spread across Butte County, assessing the potential for damage and beginning prevention: cleaning culverts, installing straw barriers around burn scars to prevent ash from getting into rivers, and prepping crews to clear storm drains during the rains and monitor for danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Flood Risk Extends to Former Wildfire Areas\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA125AC870FB04.FlashFloodWatch.125AC8ADF400CA.STOFFASTO.24b972a619f458a4712af52b8853f2a1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">flash flood watch\u003c/a> is in effect through Friday morning for the burn zones of not just the Camp Fire, but also the Carr, Delta and Hirz fires that burned in Shasta County earlier this year, and the Mendocino Complex Fire which scorched Lake and Mendocino counties this summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A wildfire really affects the landscape, especially these intense wildfires that we’ve had over the last year,” says Chris Orrock, a public information officer with the California Department of Water Resources. “Areas like Sonoma and Napa that had the wildfire last year, they’re still at risk for two to five years of flooding in those areas.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9q-1OKL1gk\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wildfires destroy trees, brush and plants that would normally soak up the rain. According to Orrock, wildfires also prevent the soil itself from being able to absorb water, instead creating a waxy surface that repels rain and can lead to flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Orrock says people need to \u003ca href=\"https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA125AC870FB04.FlashFloodWatch.125AC8ADF400CA.STOFFASTO.24b972a619f458a4712af52b8853f2a1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">be aware\u003c/a> if they’re in an area at risk for flooding and should be prepared to evacuate if conditions demand it, though the damage will depend on how much rain actually falls.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A light amount of rain might just pool up in the landscape,” he says. “If we get to a moderate amount, it might create some flooding. If we get some of these huge microcells like they saw down in Santa Barbara last year, it could start mud flows.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At least \u003ca href=\"https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/state/california/article195814174.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21 people died\u003c/a> in January in mudslides and debris flows formed when heavy rains hit the Santa Barbara landscape that had been torched by the \u003ca href=\"http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=1922\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thomas Fire\u003c/a> the previous month.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So that’s what we’re worried about in these areas that have not been able to recover,” Orrock says. “They don’t have the root structure, they might still have debris on top, [including] dead trees, dead vegetation and burnt out homes that can turn that flooding to mud flow into a dangerous debris flow.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Napa County established a flood preparedness plan last year after the deadly North Bay fires, and that plan is still in place, says Kevin Twohey, Office of Emergency Services coordinator for Napa County. He says the county isn’t expecting any problems with this week’s storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We actually welcome the rain,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s reason to welcome rain. With the exception of the Inland Empire, California has been dry this fall, with \u003ca href=\"https://wrcc.dri.edu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">little rain\u003c/a> across the state’s major watersheds. In fact, over the past 30 days, most of California has had \u003ca href=\"https://wrcc.dri.edu/anom/cal_anom.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">less than 5 percent\u003c/a> of the average rainfall.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Wildfires destroy trees, brush and plants that would normally soak in rain, leading to a greater risk of flooding.",
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"title": "Heavy Rains Bring Flood Risk to Fire-Ravaged Landscape | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>A series of storms expected to arrive in California starting Tuesday night could bring heavy rains onto landscapes denuded by wildfires. Officials are warning that could mean flooding, mudslides, and more dangerous “debris flows,” where the flowing mud picks up loose debris on the surface, like trees, boulders and remains of destroyed buildings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A storm forecast to arrive tonight and continue through Wednesday could bring several inches of rain to Butte County, where the deadly \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11705243/california-wildfires-what-you-need-to-know\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Camp Fire\u003c/a> has scorched more than 150,000 acres.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This could quickly become a dangerous situation,” says the National Weather Service \u003ca href=\"https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA125AC870FB04.FlashFloodWatch.125AC8ADF400CA.STOFFASTO.24b972a619f458a4712af52b8853f2a1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">flood watch\u003c/a>. “Residents, emergency responders, persons traveling within the burn area should remain alert, and take action should heavy rain develop.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are few residents in the fire zone who could be affected by flooding, says Tony Hernandez, Cal Fire public information officer. “Some residents have been allowed to return to their homes,” he says, but “the fire impact area has virtually no public access granted so far.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The rain could pose a threat to teams working in the fire zone — including utility workers and people working to find and identify human remains — who will have to contend with, at minimum, slick roadways. People traveling along portions of Highway 70 and the Skyway in Butte County should be prepared for flooding, rock falls, or debris flows.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1934653\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1934653\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-800x532.jpg\" alt=\"Evacuees rest in their tents for the night in a Walmart parking lot in Chico, California on November 17, 2018. Nearly 700 people remain listed as missing in the worst-ever wildfire to hit the state. \" width=\"800\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-768x510.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-1200x798.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-1920x1276.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-1180x784.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-960x638.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-240x160.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-375x249.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/GettyImages-1063108314-520x346.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Evacuees rest in their tents for the night in a Walmart parking lot in Chico, California on November 17, 2018. Nearly 700 people remain listed as missing in the worst-ever wildfire to hit the state. \u003ccite>(JOSH EDELSON/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>At a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11707224/shunning-shelters-evacuees-find-freedom-but-no-comfort-in-walmart-tent-encampment\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tent encampment\u003c/a> near a Walmart in Chico, set in a vacant lot that’s known to flood, some evacuees have left ahead of the rain. But others are staying. Volunteers have been bringing in tarps, as well as pallets to get sleeping bags up off the ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Crews from an array of state, regional and local departments — emergency services, transportation, roads, water — are spread across Butte County, assessing the potential for damage and beginning prevention: cleaning culverts, installing straw barriers around burn scars to prevent ash from getting into rivers, and prepping crews to clear storm drains during the rains and monitor for danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Flood Risk Extends to Former Wildfire Areas\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA125AC870FB04.FlashFloodWatch.125AC8ADF400CA.STOFFASTO.24b972a619f458a4712af52b8853f2a1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">flash flood watch\u003c/a> is in effect through Friday morning for the burn zones of not just the Camp Fire, but also the Carr, Delta and Hirz fires that burned in Shasta County earlier this year, and the Mendocino Complex Fire which scorched Lake and Mendocino counties this summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A wildfire really affects the landscape, especially these intense wildfires that we’ve had over the last year,” says Chris Orrock, a public information officer with the California Department of Water Resources. “Areas like Sonoma and Napa that had the wildfire last year, they’re still at risk for two to five years of flooding in those areas.”\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/I9q-1OKL1gk'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/I9q-1OKL1gk'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cp>Wildfires destroy trees, brush and plants that would normally soak up the rain. According to Orrock, wildfires also prevent the soil itself from being able to absorb water, instead creating a waxy surface that repels rain and can lead to flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Orrock says people need to \u003ca href=\"https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA125AC870FB04.FlashFloodWatch.125AC8ADF400CA.STOFFASTO.24b972a619f458a4712af52b8853f2a1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">be aware\u003c/a> if they’re in an area at risk for flooding and should be prepared to evacuate if conditions demand it, though the damage will depend on how much rain actually falls.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A light amount of rain might just pool up in the landscape,” he says. “If we get to a moderate amount, it might create some flooding. If we get some of these huge microcells like they saw down in Santa Barbara last year, it could start mud flows.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At least \u003ca href=\"https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/state/california/article195814174.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21 people died\u003c/a> in January in mudslides and debris flows formed when heavy rains hit the Santa Barbara landscape that had been torched by the \u003ca href=\"http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=1922\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thomas Fire\u003c/a> the previous month.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So that’s what we’re worried about in these areas that have not been able to recover,” Orrock says. “They don’t have the root structure, they might still have debris on top, [including] dead trees, dead vegetation and burnt out homes that can turn that flooding to mud flow into a dangerous debris flow.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Napa County established a flood preparedness plan last year after the deadly North Bay fires, and that plan is still in place, says Kevin Twohey, Office of Emergency Services coordinator for Napa County. He says the county isn’t expecting any problems with this week’s storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We actually welcome the rain,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s reason to welcome rain. With the exception of the Inland Empire, California has been dry this fall, with \u003ca href=\"https://wrcc.dri.edu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">little rain\u003c/a> across the state’s major watersheds. In fact, over the past 30 days, most of California has had \u003ca href=\"https://wrcc.dri.edu/anom/cal_anom.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">less than 5 percent\u003c/a> of the average rainfall.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "California Firefighters Use Supercomputers to Forecast Wildfires",
"headTitle": "California Firefighters Use Supercomputers to Forecast Wildfires | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>The deadly blazes burning in California have put a spotlight on the crucial role of evacuation. To save lives and property, firefighters must predict where a fire will spread within moments after it starts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, California firefighters are getting some help from a powerful new tool: supercomputers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Crunching real-time data from satellites and weather stations, banks of servers are providing forecasts of how wildfires could behave over the next few hours.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those predictions could help fire agencies add crucial minutes to evacuation orders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like other recent fires fanned by extreme weather and a warming climate, the still-burning Camp Fire in Butte County spread at a terrifying speed,\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The abnormal is the new normal,” says Jonathan Cox, division chief with Cal Fire. “It’s something that 30-year firefighters have never seen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Computing Fires\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, fire agencies predict how a fire will move by looking at the weather, terrain and fuel moisture, as well as relying on the decades of experience of fire analysts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is an inexact science that is having to be done during the middle of an emergency,” says Cox. “So it can be extremely difficult to get a really precise idea of where a fire is going.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1934490\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1934490 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-800x656.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"656\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-800x656.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-160x131.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-768x630.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-1020x836.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-1180x968.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-960x787.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-240x197.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-375x308.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-520x426.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Comet supercomputer at the San Diego Supercomputer Center. \u003ccite>(San Diego Supercomputer Center)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>For years, many fire agencies have used basic software that can produce projections of the fire on laptop computers. But in recent years, the availability of real-time fire data has mushroomed. NASA satellites are providing detailed images of fire perimeters. Weather stations, field cameras and aerial reconnaissance flights provide even more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s where supercomputers come in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our current supercomputer is called Comet,” says Ilkay Altintas of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sdsc.edu/about_sdsc/overview.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">San Diego Supercomputer Center\u003c/a> at UC San Diego. Comet has 2.76 petaflops of computing power — about the same as two million smartphones stuck together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The supercomputer center has developed \u003ca href=\"https://wifire.ucsd.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WIFIRE\u003c/a>, a fire behavior model that builds on existing models and adds in real-time data. It can run many simulations simultaneously, as soon as a fire breaks out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can understand where the fire will be, its rate of spread, its direction for the next couple of hours,” Altintas says. “Having that information in a matter of minutes, in your hand, as fast as possible, is very important.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lately Comet has been churning out forecasts for the \u003ca href=\"https://la.curbed.com/2018/11/9/18080362/woolsey-fire-map-ventura-los-angeles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Woolsey Fire\u003c/a> burning in Southern California, and turning them over to Cal Fire. The agency has been reluctant to talk about their efficacy, saying use of the model is still experimental, but it’s part of a growing trend of more technology in firefighting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The more information we can get and decisions we can make based on technology is obviously the future,” Cox says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, he doesn’t think machines will take the place of human judgment on the fire lines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s one more way that we can make decisions, but I don’t think it will ever replace the human factor because of the dynamics that come with these fires,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Predicting Erratic Fires\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are some wildfires that today’s computer models can’t predict well: in particular those that create their own weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California firefighters saw this back in July, battling the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11689687/deadly-carr-fire-fully-contained-but-work-is-far-from-over\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Carr Fire\u003c/a> near Redding. It was “unpredictable,” according to Cal Fire, spreading erratically.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1934492\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1934492\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-800x491.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"491\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-800x491.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-160x98.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-768x471.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-1020x626.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-1200x736.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-1180x724.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-960x589.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-240x147.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-375x230.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-520x319.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">New fire computer models could help provide precious extra minutes for evacuation. \u003ccite>(JOSH EDELSON/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It also produced a massive “\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1928143/reddings-firenado-was-not-your-garden-variety-fire-whirl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fire tornado\u003c/a>” with winds over 160 miles per hour. It claimed the life of fire inspector Jeremy Stoke of the Redding Fire Department.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen a lot of fires that are driven primarily by these winds that are created by the fire itself,” says Janice Coen, scientist at the \u003ca href=\"https://ncar.ucar.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Center for Atmospheric Research\u003c/a> in Colorado.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In these “plume-dominated” conditions, fire-generated winds propel the flames forward. Those winds can top 50 miles per hour, even though the winds outside may be much weaker. Current fire behavior models don’t account for that in their forecasts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In some of the most destructive, most important cases, they come up short,” Coen says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Coen is working on a computer model that simulates fire-driven weather, known as \u003ca href=\"https://ral.ucar.edu/solutions/products/coupled-atmosphere-wildland-fire-environment-cawfe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CAWFE\u003c/a>. She says it’s shown promise, but the hard part is rolling it out to fire agencies, because adopting new technology is risky for them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s difficult to integrate new technology in firefighting in particular,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The potential, she says, is that communities in fire-prone areas will be a bit safer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I have a lot of hope that we’ll be able to understand fires and anticipate their behavior,” says Coen, “so that we can learn from it and avoid more catastrophes in the future.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "They can harness a flood of real-time data to make better forecasts for wildfires. But getting fire agencies to trust them is a challenge.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The deadly blazes burning in California have put a spotlight on the crucial role of evacuation. To save lives and property, firefighters must predict where a fire will spread within moments after it starts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, California firefighters are getting some help from a powerful new tool: supercomputers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Crunching real-time data from satellites and weather stations, banks of servers are providing forecasts of how wildfires could behave over the next few hours.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those predictions could help fire agencies add crucial minutes to evacuation orders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like other recent fires fanned by extreme weather and a warming climate, the still-burning Camp Fire in Butte County spread at a terrifying speed,\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The abnormal is the new normal,” says Jonathan Cox, division chief with Cal Fire. “It’s something that 30-year firefighters have never seen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Computing Fires\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, fire agencies predict how a fire will move by looking at the weather, terrain and fuel moisture, as well as relying on the decades of experience of fire analysts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is an inexact science that is having to be done during the middle of an emergency,” says Cox. “So it can be extremely difficult to get a really precise idea of where a fire is going.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1934490\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1934490 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-800x656.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"656\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-800x656.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-160x131.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-768x630.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-1020x836.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-1180x968.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-960x787.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-240x197.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-375x308.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/Comet-blue-520x426.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Comet supercomputer at the San Diego Supercomputer Center. \u003ccite>(San Diego Supercomputer Center)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>For years, many fire agencies have used basic software that can produce projections of the fire on laptop computers. But in recent years, the availability of real-time fire data has mushroomed. NASA satellites are providing detailed images of fire perimeters. Weather stations, field cameras and aerial reconnaissance flights provide even more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s where supercomputers come in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our current supercomputer is called Comet,” says Ilkay Altintas of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sdsc.edu/about_sdsc/overview.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">San Diego Supercomputer Center\u003c/a> at UC San Diego. Comet has 2.76 petaflops of computing power — about the same as two million smartphones stuck together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The supercomputer center has developed \u003ca href=\"https://wifire.ucsd.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WIFIRE\u003c/a>, a fire behavior model that builds on existing models and adds in real-time data. It can run many simulations simultaneously, as soon as a fire breaks out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can understand where the fire will be, its rate of spread, its direction for the next couple of hours,” Altintas says. “Having that information in a matter of minutes, in your hand, as fast as possible, is very important.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lately Comet has been churning out forecasts for the \u003ca href=\"https://la.curbed.com/2018/11/9/18080362/woolsey-fire-map-ventura-los-angeles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Woolsey Fire\u003c/a> burning in Southern California, and turning them over to Cal Fire. The agency has been reluctant to talk about their efficacy, saying use of the model is still experimental, but it’s part of a growing trend of more technology in firefighting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The more information we can get and decisions we can make based on technology is obviously the future,” Cox says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, he doesn’t think machines will take the place of human judgment on the fire lines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s one more way that we can make decisions, but I don’t think it will ever replace the human factor because of the dynamics that come with these fires,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Predicting Erratic Fires\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are some wildfires that today’s computer models can’t predict well: in particular those that create their own weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California firefighters saw this back in July, battling the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11689687/deadly-carr-fire-fully-contained-but-work-is-far-from-over\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Carr Fire\u003c/a> near Redding. It was “unpredictable,” according to Cal Fire, spreading erratically.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1934492\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1934492\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-800x491.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"491\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-800x491.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-160x98.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-768x471.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-1020x626.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-1200x736.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-1180x724.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-960x589.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-240x147.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-375x230.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/11/RS33838_GettyImages-1059684614-520x319.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">New fire computer models could help provide precious extra minutes for evacuation. \u003ccite>(JOSH EDELSON/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It also produced a massive “\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1928143/reddings-firenado-was-not-your-garden-variety-fire-whirl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fire tornado\u003c/a>” with winds over 160 miles per hour. It claimed the life of fire inspector Jeremy Stoke of the Redding Fire Department.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen a lot of fires that are driven primarily by these winds that are created by the fire itself,” says Janice Coen, scientist at the \u003ca href=\"https://ncar.ucar.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Center for Atmospheric Research\u003c/a> in Colorado.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In these “plume-dominated” conditions, fire-generated winds propel the flames forward. Those winds can top 50 miles per hour, even though the winds outside may be much weaker. Current fire behavior models don’t account for that in their forecasts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In some of the most destructive, most important cases, they come up short,” Coen says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Coen is working on a computer model that simulates fire-driven weather, known as \u003ca href=\"https://ral.ucar.edu/solutions/products/coupled-atmosphere-wildland-fire-environment-cawfe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CAWFE\u003c/a>. She says it’s shown promise, but the hard part is rolling it out to fire agencies, because adopting new technology is risky for them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s difficult to integrate new technology in firefighting in particular,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The potential, she says, is that communities in fire-prone areas will be a bit safer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I have a lot of hope that we’ll be able to understand fires and anticipate their behavior,” says Coen, “so that we can learn from it and avoid more catastrophes in the future.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Why Air Quality Monitoring Sites Kept Crashing and Where to Find Info Now",
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"content": "\u003cp>Smoke from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11705243/california-wildfires-what-you-need-to-know\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the Camp Fire\u003c/a> in Butte County has created \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1934155/smoke-from-camp-fire-blankets-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">“very unhealthy” and “hazardous” levels of air quality in the Bay Area\u003c/a>, per EPA standards, and it’s not expected to get much better until next week.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003ch3>Resources to Check Air Quality\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://tools.airfire.org/monitoring/v4/#!/?category=PM2.5_nowcast¢erlat=42¢erlon=-95&zoom=4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">U.S. Forest Service Air Monitoring Program\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://mobile.arb.ca.gov/breathewell/CityList.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Air Resource Board Breathewell for Mobile\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.baaqmd.gov/about-air-quality/current-air-quality/air-monitoring-data?DataViewFormat=daily&DataView=aqi&ParameterId=316\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BAAQMD AQI Stations\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://aqicn.org/city/california/san-francisco/san-francisco-arkansas-street/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">World Air Quality Index\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.purpleair.com/map#1/25/-30\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PurpleAir\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://airnow.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AirNow\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1930023/map-heres-your-daily-air-quality-report-for-the-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED’s Air Quality Map\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>It’s no wonder, then, that residents around the Bay have been trying to access more information about their air. Most of us have been clicking on the EPA’s air quality website,\u003ca href=\"https://airnow.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> AirNow,\u003c/a> which allows you to type in your zip code and see the Air Quality Index (AQI) for your area. AirNow hasn’t been able to handle the crush of traffic, and the site has been crashing intermittently since the smoke descended upon the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The AirNow website is still experiencing very heavy traffic and may be slow,” the agency said on Facebook and \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/AIRNow/status/1061781457235075077\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in a tweet\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to a spokesperson from the EPA, 3.2 million visitors hit the website from Nov. 9 to 15, with as many as 21,000 concurrent users. That’s 100 times more simultaneous users than usual, the EPA said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The outages have prompted some very angry comments from the public.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”1GthEx6ZkGk0ffVFzig56hRo2SDzVRWC”]”Your website is broken. We are kind of in a state of emergency right now,” wrote one user \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/airnow/posts/10157280698459769?comment_id=10157282509934769&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R0%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">on Facebook\u003c/a>. Wrote \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/airnow/posts/10157280698459769?comment_id=10157281121744769&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R%2310%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">another\u003c/a>: “Please fix it. You are depriving people from accessing crucial info that will affect their health. Hire adequate developers who would run it normally.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the factors affecting the site’s performance was that AirNow upgraded to a new interface in September, and the site’s expanded functionality required more server resources. When the site became overloaded this week, AirNow started redirecting users to parts of the old site to spread out the traffic. But some of the new links didn’t work on the old site and some of the old maps wouldn’t load. So AirNow decided to revert fully to the old site, which has made the service more stable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not just AirNow site that’s struggled to meet the demand. \u003ca href=\"http://www.baaqmd.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Bay Area Air Quality Management District’s website\u003c/a> has been getting 300,000 page views per day, according to a spokesperson, a 6,000 percent increase in traffic. The agency had to increase server and database capacity to handle the load.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.purpleair.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PurpleAir\u003c/a>, which is a small private company that creates portable personal air monitors and uses a wi-fi open source network to map the air quality via that equipment, also succumbed to traffic overload Thursday night.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”Kkqn03fC9rIQWVIvaFgWfWSvg2bUAJP6″]”This is much bigger than expected. Through the fires this summer we did not experience this sort of traffic,” said Amanda Hawkins, one of the company’s founders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The good news: Most of the sites have now upgraded their back-ends to handle the traffic. AirNow, for instance, is back to providing AQIs on a more granular geographical level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other good news: There are other places to get your air quality information, if one site isn’t loading.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some options:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>AirNow partnered with the\u003ca href=\"https://sites.google.com/firenet.gov/wfaqrp-external/home\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> U.S. Forest Service’s Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program\u003c/a> to send users to its site when necessary. The U.S. Forest Service increased their service capacity Thursday to take on some of the additional traffic. \u003ca href=\"https://tools.airfire.org/monitoring/v4/#!/?category=PM2.5_nowcast¢erlat=42¢erlon=-95&zoom=4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">See the U.S. Forest Service’s Air Monitoring site here\u003c/a>.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>The California Air Resources Board also runs a \u003ca href=\"https://mobile.arb.ca.gov/breathewell/CityList.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Breathewell site\u003c/a> designed for mobile users.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.baaqmd.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BAAQMD.gov\u003c/a> increased its server capacity and provides an air quality map, as well as pure data. The 31 actual air monitors around the Bay Area that feed the AirNow site come from BAAQMD.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>The World Air Quality Index is a global project, based in Beijing, that provides AQI information for 1,000 cities around the world. You can view the\u003ca href=\"http://aqicn.org/city/california/san-francisco/san-francisco-arkansas-street/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> AQI at the nearest station to you\u003c/a>.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.purpleair.com/map#1/25/-30\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PurpleAir\u003c/a> also provides a map made up of data from its own network of personal air monitors. The difference, though, is PurpleAir provides rolling updates—so the AQI is the most recent 80-second average—whereas the AQI on AirNow or BAAQMD is often a 24-hour average with an hourly estimate based on calculations. PurpleAir uses a different type of monitor, a cheaper and more portable laser particle counter, which can read slightly higher than sensors that measure particulate matter by mass concentration.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1930023/map-heres-your-daily-air-quality-report-for-the-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED’s map\u003c/a> is updated hourly, based on the open data from AirNow, and includes info about the air quality categories.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>You can also try \u003ca href=\"https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&zipcode=94102&submit=Go\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the AirNow website\u003c/a> again. It appeared to be working more reliably throughout Friday.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003cbr />\n[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Smoke from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11705243/california-wildfires-what-you-need-to-know\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the Camp Fire\u003c/a> in Butte County has created \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1934155/smoke-from-camp-fire-blankets-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">“very unhealthy” and “hazardous” levels of air quality in the Bay Area\u003c/a>, per EPA standards, and it’s not expected to get much better until next week.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003ch3>Resources to Check Air Quality\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://tools.airfire.org/monitoring/v4/#!/?category=PM2.5_nowcast¢erlat=42¢erlon=-95&zoom=4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">U.S. Forest Service Air Monitoring Program\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://mobile.arb.ca.gov/breathewell/CityList.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Air Resource Board Breathewell for Mobile\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.baaqmd.gov/about-air-quality/current-air-quality/air-monitoring-data?DataViewFormat=daily&DataView=aqi&ParameterId=316\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BAAQMD AQI Stations\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://aqicn.org/city/california/san-francisco/san-francisco-arkansas-street/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">World Air Quality Index\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.purpleair.com/map#1/25/-30\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PurpleAir\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://airnow.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AirNow\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1930023/map-heres-your-daily-air-quality-report-for-the-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED’s Air Quality Map\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>It’s no wonder, then, that residents around the Bay have been trying to access more information about their air. Most of us have been clicking on the EPA’s air quality website,\u003ca href=\"https://airnow.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> AirNow,\u003c/a> which allows you to type in your zip code and see the Air Quality Index (AQI) for your area. AirNow hasn’t been able to handle the crush of traffic, and the site has been crashing intermittently since the smoke descended upon the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The AirNow website is still experiencing very heavy traffic and may be slow,” the agency said on Facebook and \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/AIRNow/status/1061781457235075077\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in a tweet\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to a spokesperson from the EPA, 3.2 million visitors hit the website from Nov. 9 to 15, with as many as 21,000 concurrent users. That’s 100 times more simultaneous users than usual, the EPA said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The outages have prompted some very angry comments from the public.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>”Your website is broken. We are kind of in a state of emergency right now,” wrote one user \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/airnow/posts/10157280698459769?comment_id=10157282509934769&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R0%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">on Facebook\u003c/a>. Wrote \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/airnow/posts/10157280698459769?comment_id=10157281121744769&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R%2310%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">another\u003c/a>: “Please fix it. You are depriving people from accessing crucial info that will affect their health. Hire adequate developers who would run it normally.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the factors affecting the site’s performance was that AirNow upgraded to a new interface in September, and the site’s expanded functionality required more server resources. When the site became overloaded this week, AirNow started redirecting users to parts of the old site to spread out the traffic. But some of the new links didn’t work on the old site and some of the old maps wouldn’t load. So AirNow decided to revert fully to the old site, which has made the service more stable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not just AirNow site that’s struggled to meet the demand. \u003ca href=\"http://www.baaqmd.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Bay Area Air Quality Management District’s website\u003c/a> has been getting 300,000 page views per day, according to a spokesperson, a 6,000 percent increase in traffic. The agency had to increase server and database capacity to handle the load.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.purpleair.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PurpleAir\u003c/a>, which is a small private company that creates portable personal air monitors and uses a wi-fi open source network to map the air quality via that equipment, also succumbed to traffic overload Thursday night.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>”This is much bigger than expected. Through the fires this summer we did not experience this sort of traffic,” said Amanda Hawkins, one of the company’s founders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The good news: Most of the sites have now upgraded their back-ends to handle the traffic. AirNow, for instance, is back to providing AQIs on a more granular geographical level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other good news: There are other places to get your air quality information, if one site isn’t loading.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some options:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>AirNow partnered with the\u003ca href=\"https://sites.google.com/firenet.gov/wfaqrp-external/home\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> U.S. Forest Service’s Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program\u003c/a> to send users to its site when necessary. The U.S. Forest Service increased their service capacity Thursday to take on some of the additional traffic. \u003ca href=\"https://tools.airfire.org/monitoring/v4/#!/?category=PM2.5_nowcast¢erlat=42¢erlon=-95&zoom=4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">See the U.S. Forest Service’s Air Monitoring site here\u003c/a>.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>The California Air Resources Board also runs a \u003ca href=\"https://mobile.arb.ca.gov/breathewell/CityList.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Breathewell site\u003c/a> designed for mobile users.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.baaqmd.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BAAQMD.gov\u003c/a> increased its server capacity and provides an air quality map, as well as pure data. The 31 actual air monitors around the Bay Area that feed the AirNow site come from BAAQMD.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>The World Air Quality Index is a global project, based in Beijing, that provides AQI information for 1,000 cities around the world. You can view the\u003ca href=\"http://aqicn.org/city/california/san-francisco/san-francisco-arkansas-street/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> AQI at the nearest station to you\u003c/a>.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.purpleair.com/map#1/25/-30\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PurpleAir\u003c/a> also provides a map made up of data from its own network of personal air monitors. The difference, though, is PurpleAir provides rolling updates—so the AQI is the most recent 80-second average—whereas the AQI on AirNow or BAAQMD is often a 24-hour average with an hourly estimate based on calculations. PurpleAir uses a different type of monitor, a cheaper and more portable laser particle counter, which can read slightly higher than sensors that measure particulate matter by mass concentration.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1930023/map-heres-your-daily-air-quality-report-for-the-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED’s map\u003c/a> is updated hourly, based on the open data from AirNow, and includes info about the air quality categories.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>You can also try \u003ca href=\"https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&zipcode=94102&submit=Go\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the AirNow website\u003c/a> again. It appeared to be working more reliably throughout Friday.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "What You Need to Know About the Bay Area's Current Abysmal Air Quality",
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"content": "\u003cp>Since \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11705243/california-wildfires-what-you-need-to-know\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the Camp Fire\u003c/a> in Butte County blew up a week ago, the Bay Area has been choked with smoke, fouling the air quality throughout the region. As of Thursday afternoon, air quality readings had gotten so bad in San Francisco that it reached “hazardous” levels per EPA standards. Due to the smoke, a number of Bay Area school districts have \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11706584/friday-school-closures-and-restrictions-announced-for-the-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">canceled classes on Friday.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Conditions are expected \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1934155/smoke-from-camp-fire-blankets-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to remain smoky at least through the weekend\u003c/a>, stretching the current stint of bad air to nearly two weeks, and leaving many residents wondering how to cope.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”pDXbVZZoq1WjaMJkElnjfAXBMcSLtJSw”]Sharon Chinthrajah, a clinical associate professor in allergy and immunology at Stanford, and Kirk Smith, a professor of global environmental health at UC Berkeley, appeared on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101868246/wildfire-smoke-air-quality-and-your-health\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED’s Forum program\u003c/a> Wednesday to answer questions about smoke, air quality and the resulting health effects from exposure to toxic particles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some key takeaways:\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>What Exactly is in the Air?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>When wildfires burn, they release a range of particles into the air. Wood smoke also contains chemicals like formaldehyde and benzene, especially when fire sweeps through urban areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most of the ash consists of visible particles, but “really it’s the small particles we worry about,” said Chinthrajah. In “particular,” she means \u003ca href=\"http://www.npi.gov.au/resource/particulate-matter-pm10-and-pm25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">particles less than 2.5 microns\u003c/a> in diameter. (A micron is 1/1,000,000th of a meter, or .00004 inches. For comparison, a human red blood cell is about five microns across.) When you breathe in particles smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter, they can readily enter your lungs and bloodstream.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Long-term v. Short-term Health Effects\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>While there are a number of studies that have tracked the long-term effects of breathing in chronic air pollution, said Smith, it’s more difficult to pin down the short-term effects. In the long-term, chronic exposure to small particles has been linked to early morbidity, decreased lung function, and compromised immune cells. \u003ca href=\"https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-10/tl-tlp101817.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">One study\u003c/a> suggested that 6.5 million people die each year prematurely due to poor air quality. In the short-term, however, it’s difficult to pin down what the effects are to those who aren’t already vulnerable to existing heart or lung disease.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>How to Keep Track of the Air Quality\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>There are a number of sites that track air quality, such as \u003ca href=\"https://airnow.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AirNow.gov\u003c/a>, which uses sensors and data from the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, and the privately run \u003ca href=\"https://www.purpleair.com/map?#11/37.7846/-122.3379\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PurpleAir\u003c/a>, and uses crowd-sourced data from its own network of for-sale air quality sensors. Many of them have been overrun with web traffic, however. You can also use\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1930023/map-heres-your-daily-air-quality-report-for-the-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> the KQED air quality map\u003c/a>, which is updated continually with AirNow data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”szYmvQahwNmXyG8eZRFOmSVPE8fyri4S”]All of these sites allow you to type in your zip code and see the AQI, or Air Quality Index number, with a description of what that number means. The AQI is a standard calculation that quantifies both ozone pollution and PM 2.5, or particles 2.5 microns wide. AQI numbers over 100 are considered unhealthy for sensitive groups, over 150 is considered unhealthy even for healthy people, and over 200 is considered hazardous.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While we are currently experiencing values in the high-100s and low-200s, other parts of the world regularly have AQI numbers higher than that. New Delhi, where Smith lives half of the year, had a 340 AQI when he looked it up before coming on the program. It’s a “\u003ca href=\"https://waqi.info/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">global phenomenon\u003c/a>,” he said, adding for perspective that the worst air-quality days in the Bay Area are probably comparable to the best days in New Delhi.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>How to Protect Yourself\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Limit your outdoor exposure. Even in a drafty house, the amount of air pollution is less than outdoors, because particles are absorbed partially by walls and don’t penetrate fully. Indoor air in the average house in the U.S., said Smith, is typically 15 percent less polluted than outside.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”fNL3Os6xjtEbhZRcgtol0ySPLqslM08y”]However, if you have HEPA-certified air filters running, doors and windows closed, gaps sealed, and the air recirculating inside the house, then you can bring the air pollution levels down to 3-4 times lower than outside, Smith noted. Most air conditioners, heaters and air circulation units bring air in from the outdoors. You want to turn off that function and let the system recirculate indoor air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Don’t go in and out of the house frequently, so as not to bring in outside air, and don’t burn things inside the house, like candles or incense. Unfortunately there hasn’t been a consistent government standard for testing air filters, but you want to have a filter rated to at least PM 2.5 and from a reputable company. Additionally, said Smith, you’ll want to consider the CADR (clean air delivery rate) of your air filter; a small filter in the corner won’t deliver enough cubic feet of clean air to fill a large room. And you need to replace the filters in the units regularly, both in your furnace, portable air filters and in your car.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you have to be outside, then a mask rated at least N95 can catch many of the particles, if it fits well, said Chinthrajah. Health professionals will even get their masks fitted to make sure there is a good seal that doesn’t let air in. However, over-the-counter masks can fit badly, particularly for small kids or adults with facial hair.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unless it’s very uncomfortable, it’s not working,” said Smith. Masks also don’t last forever. Particles get trapped in them over time and the masks have to be replaced. Although it depends on the pollution levels, Smith suggested replacing them every few days or over a week at most, in conditions like this.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Since \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11705243/california-wildfires-what-you-need-to-know\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the Camp Fire\u003c/a> in Butte County blew up a week ago, the Bay Area has been choked with smoke, fouling the air quality throughout the region. As of Thursday afternoon, air quality readings had gotten so bad in San Francisco that it reached “hazardous” levels per EPA standards. Due to the smoke, a number of Bay Area school districts have \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11706584/friday-school-closures-and-restrictions-announced-for-the-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">canceled classes on Friday.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Conditions are expected \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1934155/smoke-from-camp-fire-blankets-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to remain smoky at least through the weekend\u003c/a>, stretching the current stint of bad air to nearly two weeks, and leaving many residents wondering how to cope.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>Sharon Chinthrajah, a clinical associate professor in allergy and immunology at Stanford, and Kirk Smith, a professor of global environmental health at UC Berkeley, appeared on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101868246/wildfire-smoke-air-quality-and-your-health\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED’s Forum program\u003c/a> Wednesday to answer questions about smoke, air quality and the resulting health effects from exposure to toxic particles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some key takeaways:\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>What Exactly is in the Air?\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>When wildfires burn, they release a range of particles into the air. Wood smoke also contains chemicals like formaldehyde and benzene, especially when fire sweeps through urban areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most of the ash consists of visible particles, but “really it’s the small particles we worry about,” said Chinthrajah. In “particular,” she means \u003ca href=\"http://www.npi.gov.au/resource/particulate-matter-pm10-and-pm25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">particles less than 2.5 microns\u003c/a> in diameter. (A micron is 1/1,000,000th of a meter, or .00004 inches. For comparison, a human red blood cell is about five microns across.) When you breathe in particles smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter, they can readily enter your lungs and bloodstream.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Long-term v. Short-term Health Effects\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>While there are a number of studies that have tracked the long-term effects of breathing in chronic air pollution, said Smith, it’s more difficult to pin down the short-term effects. In the long-term, chronic exposure to small particles has been linked to early morbidity, decreased lung function, and compromised immune cells. \u003ca href=\"https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-10/tl-tlp101817.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">One study\u003c/a> suggested that 6.5 million people die each year prematurely due to poor air quality. In the short-term, however, it’s difficult to pin down what the effects are to those who aren’t already vulnerable to existing heart or lung disease.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>How to Keep Track of the Air Quality\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>There are a number of sites that track air quality, such as \u003ca href=\"https://airnow.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AirNow.gov\u003c/a>, which uses sensors and data from the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, and the privately run \u003ca href=\"https://www.purpleair.com/map?#11/37.7846/-122.3379\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PurpleAir\u003c/a>, and uses crowd-sourced data from its own network of for-sale air quality sensors. Many of them have been overrun with web traffic, however. You can also use\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1930023/map-heres-your-daily-air-quality-report-for-the-bay-area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> the KQED air quality map\u003c/a>, which is updated continually with AirNow data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>All of these sites allow you to type in your zip code and see the AQI, or Air Quality Index number, with a description of what that number means. The AQI is a standard calculation that quantifies both ozone pollution and PM 2.5, or particles 2.5 microns wide. AQI numbers over 100 are considered unhealthy for sensitive groups, over 150 is considered unhealthy even for healthy people, and over 200 is considered hazardous.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While we are currently experiencing values in the high-100s and low-200s, other parts of the world regularly have AQI numbers higher than that. New Delhi, where Smith lives half of the year, had a 340 AQI when he looked it up before coming on the program. It’s a “\u003ca href=\"https://waqi.info/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">global phenomenon\u003c/a>,” he said, adding for perspective that the worst air-quality days in the Bay Area are probably comparable to the best days in New Delhi.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>How to Protect Yourself\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Limit your outdoor exposure. Even in a drafty house, the amount of air pollution is less than outdoors, because particles are absorbed partially by walls and don’t penetrate fully. Indoor air in the average house in the U.S., said Smith, is typically 15 percent less polluted than outside.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>However, if you have HEPA-certified air filters running, doors and windows closed, gaps sealed, and the air recirculating inside the house, then you can bring the air pollution levels down to 3-4 times lower than outside, Smith noted. Most air conditioners, heaters and air circulation units bring air in from the outdoors. You want to turn off that function and let the system recirculate indoor air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Don’t go in and out of the house frequently, so as not to bring in outside air, and don’t burn things inside the house, like candles or incense. Unfortunately there hasn’t been a consistent government standard for testing air filters, but you want to have a filter rated to at least PM 2.5 and from a reputable company. Additionally, said Smith, you’ll want to consider the CADR (clean air delivery rate) of your air filter; a small filter in the corner won’t deliver enough cubic feet of clean air to fill a large room. And you need to replace the filters in the units regularly, both in your furnace, portable air filters and in your car.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you have to be outside, then a mask rated at least N95 can catch many of the particles, if it fits well, said Chinthrajah. Health professionals will even get their masks fitted to make sure there is a good seal that doesn’t let air in. However, over-the-counter masks can fit badly, particularly for small kids or adults with facial hair.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unless it’s very uncomfortable, it’s not working,” said Smith. Masks also don’t last forever. Particles get trapped in them over time and the masks have to be replaced. Although it depends on the pollution levels, Smith suggested replacing them every few days or over a week at most, in conditions like this.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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