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Bloomberg noted that three other major coal miners went bankrupt \u003ca href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-coal-miner-on-everybody-s-list-as-next-bankruptcy-victim\">the year before that\u003c/a>, and many industry watchers had expected Peabody to follow suit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dashed dreams of China-powered prosperity contributed to the coal giant’s financial woes. Peabody bought Australian mining firm MacArthur in 2011 for \u003ca href=\"http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/peabody-energy-takes-full-control-of-macarthur-coal/\">nearly $5 billion\u003c/a>. It was \u003ca href=\"http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/with-macarthur-acquisition-peabody-lays-heavier-bet-on-asia/article_6d55d79b-c6d1-5a22-9189-f869ce985bcf.html\">a bet on Asian growth\u003c/a>, planned at a time when coal prices had been on the rise for two years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That same year, coal prices \u003ca href=\"https://www.quandl.com/data/EIA/COAL\">began to drop\u003c/a>. The industry entered a long slump — \u003ca href=\"http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1460549465977&chddm=984147&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=INDEXDJX:DJUSCL&ntsp=0&ei=GjcOV6OZAoKymAHdh5-gCQ\">where it remains today\u003c/a>. And instead of surging, growth in China \u003ca href=\"http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1409527/stagnant-growth-adds-pressure-rebalancing-chinas-economy\">was stagnant\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, Peabody carries a heavy debt burden. \u003ca href=\"http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/peabody's-demise-parallels-the-decline-of-king-coal/7241246\">Australia’s ABC News reports\u003c/a> that Peabody owes $10.1 billion and has $10.9 billion in assets — and that the company lost $2 billion in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the statement announcing the Chapter 11 restructuring, Peabody also revealed that a planned \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/23/peabody-energy-to-sell-new-mexico-colorado-assets-for-358-mln.html\">sale of its New Mexico and Colorado mines\u003c/a> has fallen through.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mine operations are continuing as usual, Peabody said in the statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last month, Inside Energy’s Leigh Paterson \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/2016/03/25/471817223/bankruptcies-fuel-uncertainty-in-coal-communities\">reported for NPR\u003c/a> on what bankruptcy means in the coal industry. She noted that a bankrupt Peabody subsidiary recently raised ire by trying to cut insurance for retired employees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And cleanup liabilities are often among the debts that a bankrupt coal-mining company is attempting to negotiate, Paterson says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peabody said in its statement that the company is proud of its work in land restoration, or repairing areas damaged by mining, and will “meet its reclamation obligations.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shale gas, increasingly produced in the U.S. through the practice of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, was named by Peabody as a factor in its bankruptcy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the long-term, as NPR’s Jeff Brady \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/2016/02/17/466033966/from-the-ashes-of-some-coal-plants-new-energy-rises\">reported in February\u003c/a>, there’s another challenge facing the coal industry:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>“The renewable \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/2015/12/29/460812946/tax-breaks-falling-costs-are-boosting-wind-and-solar\">energy building boom\u003c/a> also is stressing the industry. Once solar and wind projects are built, the power is cheap to produce.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>” ‘Gas puts the immediate threat to coal, but the combination of gas and renewables places a longer-term threat to coal,’ says Andy Roberts, analyst in international thermal coal markets for the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“He says last year was tough for coal companies, and the future likely will be \u003ca href=\"http://www.woodmac.com/blog/happy-new-year-coal-producers-or-maybe-not/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">even more painful\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>” ‘Probably, over the long, long time, only the strongest of them are going to survive,’ Roberts says.”\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One way companies can strengthen their position in the struggling industry? Declaring bankruptcy, Jeff wrote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=U.S.+Coal+Giant+Peabody+Energy+Files+For+Bankruptcy&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\" alt=\"\">\u003c/div>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "As the coal industry struggles with falling prices, weak Chinese demand, regulatory changes and competition from fracking, St. Louis-based Peabody has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>A coal-mining giant has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection amid an industrywide slump.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peabody Energy — which is the biggest coal miner in the U.S. and says it is the largest private-sector coal company in the world — is looking to restructure its heavy debt load and gain relief from its creditors. It hopes to continue operations unimpeded.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The St. Louis-based company said \u003ca href=\"https://mscusppegrs01.blob.core.windows.net/mmfiles/sitemedia/ch11/announcement%20press%20release.pdf\">in a statement\u003c/a> that the pressure on the coal industry is “unprecedented.” It cited a drop in prices, weaker demand from China, the rise of competition from fracking and “ongoing regulatory challenges” as reasons for the restructuring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earlier this year, Arch Coal — the second-largest coal miner in the U.S. — \u003ca href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/arch-coal-files-for-bankruptcy-reaches-4-5-billion-debt-deal\">filed for bankruptcy\u003c/a>. Bloomberg noted that three other major coal miners went bankrupt \u003ca href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-coal-miner-on-everybody-s-list-as-next-bankruptcy-victim\">the year before that\u003c/a>, and many industry watchers had expected Peabody to follow suit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dashed dreams of China-powered prosperity contributed to the coal giant’s financial woes. Peabody bought Australian mining firm MacArthur in 2011 for \u003ca href=\"http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/peabody-energy-takes-full-control-of-macarthur-coal/\">nearly $5 billion\u003c/a>. It was \u003ca href=\"http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/with-macarthur-acquisition-peabody-lays-heavier-bet-on-asia/article_6d55d79b-c6d1-5a22-9189-f869ce985bcf.html\">a bet on Asian growth\u003c/a>, planned at a time when coal prices had been on the rise for two years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That same year, coal prices \u003ca href=\"https://www.quandl.com/data/EIA/COAL\">began to drop\u003c/a>. The industry entered a long slump — \u003ca href=\"http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1460549465977&chddm=984147&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=INDEXDJX:DJUSCL&ntsp=0&ei=GjcOV6OZAoKymAHdh5-gCQ\">where it remains today\u003c/a>. And instead of surging, growth in China \u003ca href=\"http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1409527/stagnant-growth-adds-pressure-rebalancing-chinas-economy\">was stagnant\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, Peabody carries a heavy debt burden. \u003ca href=\"http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/peabody's-demise-parallels-the-decline-of-king-coal/7241246\">Australia’s ABC News reports\u003c/a> that Peabody owes $10.1 billion and has $10.9 billion in assets — and that the company lost $2 billion in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the statement announcing the Chapter 11 restructuring, Peabody also revealed that a planned \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/23/peabody-energy-to-sell-new-mexico-colorado-assets-for-358-mln.html\">sale of its New Mexico and Colorado mines\u003c/a> has fallen through.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mine operations are continuing as usual, Peabody said in the statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last month, Inside Energy’s Leigh Paterson \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/2016/03/25/471817223/bankruptcies-fuel-uncertainty-in-coal-communities\">reported for NPR\u003c/a> on what bankruptcy means in the coal industry. She noted that a bankrupt Peabody subsidiary recently raised ire by trying to cut insurance for retired employees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And cleanup liabilities are often among the debts that a bankrupt coal-mining company is attempting to negotiate, Paterson says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peabody said in its statement that the company is proud of its work in land restoration, or repairing areas damaged by mining, and will “meet its reclamation obligations.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shale gas, increasingly produced in the U.S. through the practice of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, was named by Peabody as a factor in its bankruptcy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the long-term, as NPR’s Jeff Brady \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/2016/02/17/466033966/from-the-ashes-of-some-coal-plants-new-energy-rises\">reported in February\u003c/a>, there’s another challenge facing the coal industry:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>“The renewable \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/2015/12/29/460812946/tax-breaks-falling-costs-are-boosting-wind-and-solar\">energy building boom\u003c/a> also is stressing the industry. Once solar and wind projects are built, the power is cheap to produce.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>” ‘Gas puts the immediate threat to coal, but the combination of gas and renewables places a longer-term threat to coal,’ says Andy Roberts, analyst in international thermal coal markets for the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“He says last year was tough for coal companies, and the future likely will be \u003ca href=\"http://www.woodmac.com/blog/happy-new-year-coal-producers-or-maybe-not/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">even more painful\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>” ‘Probably, over the long, long time, only the strongest of them are going to survive,’ Roberts says.”\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One way companies can strengthen their position in the struggling industry? Declaring bankruptcy, Jeff wrote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=U.S.+Coal+Giant+Peabody+Energy+Files+For+Bankruptcy&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\" alt=\"\">\u003c/div>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Hardly a week goes by without seeing news about the alarming pace and extent of climate change, from rising sea levels to record-setting temperatures in the Bay Area and beyond.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But lost among this torrent of data, policy measures and updated climate models is a different side of climate change — one which Bay Area choreographer KT Nelson wants people to see, and more importantly, feel.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11485753\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11485753\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/arts/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"ODC Co-Artistic Director KT Nelson at Yerba Buena Center for the Arts.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">ODC co-artistic director KT Nelson at Yerba Buena Center for the Arts. \u003ccite>(Sheraz Sadiq/KQED Arts)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Perhaps one of the things we need today is to address climate change from a more emotional point of view,” says Nelson, who co-directs \u003ca href=\"http://odcdance.org/index.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ODC\u003c/a>, a San Francisco dance company founded in 1971.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Inspired by a sabbatical she took to Death Valley in 2013, Nelson created \u003cem>Dead Reckoning\u003c/em>, a production that explores the anxiety, indifference and panic brought on by a world transformed and threatened by climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In \u003cem>Dead Reckoning\u003c/em>, there is this lime-green snow, or confetti, that first starts coming from the dancer’s hands, and eventually it comes from the sky,” Nelson says. “Nothing in nature is like that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Complementing this visual metaphor is the soundtrack to \u003cem>Dead Reckoning\u003c/em>, which is composed by renowned former Kronos Quartet cellist \u003ca href=\"http://www.jjcello.com/\">Joan Jeanrenaud\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11485760\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11485760\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/arts/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Joan Jeanrenaud composed the music for 'Dead Reckoning.'\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Joan Jeanrenaud composed the music for ‘Dead Reckoning.’ \u003ccite>(Sheraz Sadiq/KQED Arts)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"line-height: 1.5\">The title of Nelson’s work is itself a cautionary metaphor. Sailors typically use dead reckoning to estimate their position at sea based on past measurements. The technique is useful when celestial observations aren’t available owing to thick cloud cover. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeanrenaud layers multiple cello tracks on top of each other and changes their tempo in key sections of the piece. She uses the cello’s broad musical range to capture different moods, from aching sorrow to frantic urgency, as dancers variously collide into each other, run in place and dance romantically.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11485109\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11485109\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/arts/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"Josie G. Sadan, a company dancer at ODC, during a rehearsal for 'Dead Reckoning.'\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Josie G. Sadan dances during a rehearsal for ‘Dead Reckoning’ at ODC. \u003ccite>(Blake McHugh/KQED Arts)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Today, where we are with climate change is we are navigating blindly,” Nelson says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Dead Reckoning \u003c/em>had its world premiere last year at Yerba Buena Center for the Arts where it returned this year for four performances in March. If you missed it, you can watch the entire performance on\u003ca href=\"http://odcdance.org/performance.php?param=315\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> ODC’s web site\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Hardly a week goes by without seeing news about the alarming pace and extent of climate change, from rising sea levels to record-setting temperatures in the Bay Area and beyond.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But lost among this torrent of data, policy measures and updated climate models is a different side of climate change — one which Bay Area choreographer KT Nelson wants people to see, and more importantly, feel.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11485753\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11485753\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/arts/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"ODC Co-Artistic Director KT Nelson at Yerba Buena Center for the Arts.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010184-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">ODC co-artistic director KT Nelson at Yerba Buena Center for the Arts. \u003ccite>(Sheraz Sadiq/KQED Arts)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Perhaps one of the things we need today is to address climate change from a more emotional point of view,” says Nelson, who co-directs \u003ca href=\"http://odcdance.org/index.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ODC\u003c/a>, a San Francisco dance company founded in 1971.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Inspired by a sabbatical she took to Death Valley in 2013, Nelson created \u003cem>Dead Reckoning\u003c/em>, a production that explores the anxiety, indifference and panic brought on by a world transformed and threatened by climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In \u003cem>Dead Reckoning\u003c/em>, there is this lime-green snow, or confetti, that first starts coming from the dancer’s hands, and eventually it comes from the sky,” Nelson says. “Nothing in nature is like that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Complementing this visual metaphor is the soundtrack to \u003cem>Dead Reckoning\u003c/em>, which is composed by renowned former Kronos Quartet cellist \u003ca href=\"http://www.jjcello.com/\">Joan Jeanrenaud\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11485760\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11485760\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/arts/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Joan Jeanrenaud composed the music for 'Dead Reckoning.'\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/1010066-1-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Joan Jeanrenaud composed the music for ‘Dead Reckoning.’ \u003ccite>(Sheraz Sadiq/KQED Arts)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"line-height: 1.5\">The title of Nelson’s work is itself a cautionary metaphor. Sailors typically use dead reckoning to estimate their position at sea based on past measurements. The technique is useful when celestial observations aren’t available owing to thick cloud cover. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeanrenaud layers multiple cello tracks on top of each other and changes their tempo in key sections of the piece. She uses the cello’s broad musical range to capture different moods, from aching sorrow to frantic urgency, as dancers variously collide into each other, run in place and dance romantically.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11485109\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11485109\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/arts/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"Josie G. Sadan, a company dancer at ODC, during a rehearsal for 'Dead Reckoning.'\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/SP9135.new_-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Josie G. Sadan dances during a rehearsal for ‘Dead Reckoning’ at ODC. \u003ccite>(Blake McHugh/KQED Arts)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Today, where we are with climate change is we are navigating blindly,” Nelson says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Dead Reckoning \u003c/em>had its world premiere last year at Yerba Buena Center for the Arts where it returned this year for four performances in March. If you missed it, you can watch the entire performance on\u003ca href=\"http://odcdance.org/performance.php?param=315\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> ODC’s web site\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Will La Niña Follow One of the Strongest Ever El Niños?",
"headTitle": "Will La Niña Follow One of the Strongest Ever El Niños? | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Back in November, El Niño \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-peaks-but-impacts-to-come-19900\">reached a fever pitch\u003c/a>, vaulting into the ranks of the strongest events on record and wreaking havoc \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/monster-el-nino-transforms-worlds-weather-20138\">on weather patterns\u003c/a> around the world. Now it is beginning to wane as the ocean cools, so what comes next?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s possible that by next fall, the tropical Pacific Ocean could seesaw into a state that is roughly El Niño’s opposite, forecasters say. Called \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warming-doubles-likelihood-extreme-la-ninas-18592\">La Niña\u003c/a>, this climate state comes with its own set of global impacts, including higher chances of a dry winter in \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/shift-may-bring-more-drought-california-20196\">drought-plagued California\u003c/a> and warm, wet weather in Southeast Asia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But El Niños and La Niñas are particularly difficult to predict at this time of year, so exactly what happens remains to be seen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Warm-Cool Cycle\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño and La Niña are part of a cycle that runs over the course of three to seven years. While El Niño features warmer-than-normal ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific — much warmer in the case of this exceptional El Niño — La Niña features colder-than-normal waters in the same region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those changes in ocean temperatures are accompanied by changes in the atmosphere: During El Niño, convection and rains shift eastward and the normal east-to-west trade winds weaken or even reverse, while during La Niña, the normal dry state of the eastern Pacific intensifies along with the trade winds. Those atmospheric effects set off a domino effect around the world that can shift normal weather patterns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This El Niño reached a peak in ocean temperatures in November and those waters have been cooling off ever since, following the normal progression. That decline means “it’s almost a certainty that [the tropical Pacific Ocean is] going to go back to neutral in about two months,” \u003ca href=\"http://iri.columbia.edu/contact/staff-directory/anthony-barnston/\">Anthony Barnston\u003c/a>, chief forecaster at Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s still up in the air is whether it stays neutral or continues to cool until it reaches a La Niña state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_626778\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 620px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-626778\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/La_Nina_winter.jpg\" alt=\"How La Niña impacts global weather patterns.\" width=\"620\" height=\"370\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/La_Nina_winter.jpg 620w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/La_Nina_winter-400x239.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">How La Niña impacts global weather patterns. \u003ccite>(NOAA)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>El Niño’s Self-Sabotage\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>La Niña’s don’t always follow after El Niños, but seem more likely to do so after a strong El Niño, \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/will-la-ni%C3%B1a-follow-el-ni%C3%B1o-what-past-tells-us\">based on the historical record\u003c/a>. That record is quite short, though, which makes it hard to draw firm conclusions from it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the underlying physics of the El Niño cycle offers some reason to think that strong El Niños do tend to lead to La Niñas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niños generate large-scale waves in the ocean (these aren’t like the waves that break on the water’s surface). One set, called Kelvin waves, travel from west to east and cause warming, enhancing the El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other, called Rossby waves, travel in the opposite direction until they reach Indonesia, where they bounce off the landmass and head back east. Eventually, the Rossby waves catch up to the El Niño and cause cooling, in something of an act of self-sabotage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The El Niño sort of kills itself,” Barnston said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The stronger the El Niño, the stronger the Rossby waves it generates. If those waves are strong enough, they can not only kill off the El Niño, but “overshoot” in the other direction, driving the system towards a La Niña state, Barnston said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Current Cooling\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Rossby waves usually disrupt the El Niño pattern about six months after it peaks, or, right about now. Indeed, forecasters have noted a cool down below the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific in recent weeks, though surface water temperatures are still firmly in El Niño territory. They will gradually follow the subsurface cool-off, though, likely reaching neutral territory by late spring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If a La Niña is in the offing, those waters should be cooling further by mid-summer, though, like El Niño, it wouldn’t peak until late fall or early winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now Barnston puts the odds at slightly better than 50 percent that a La Niña does develop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What is very unlikely to happen is a return to El Niño conditions, which almost never occur in back-to-back years because of that self-sabotage mechanism. (It only tends to happen when there is an unusually late-developing El Niño that can then persist and peak again the following year.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>La Niña, on the other hand, can last for two to three years because the large-scale waves it generates aren’t as well-defined. “It’s not equal and opposite to what you get during El Niño,” Barnston said, so La Niña doesn’t tend to undercut itself the way El Niño does.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s far too early to tell how strong any La Niña that does develop might be, forecasters say.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s difficult to forecast strength of events. An added difficulty is that things change pretty quickly when an event is decaying — this is the time of year when the accuracy of forecasts is lower,” Catherine Ganter, a senior climatologist with Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnston said they should have a better idea of the potential strength by August, possibly a bit sooner if there is a very sharp cool down in Pacific Ocean temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Back in November, El Niño \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-peaks-but-impacts-to-come-19900\">reached a fever pitch\u003c/a>, vaulting into the ranks of the strongest events on record and wreaking havoc \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/monster-el-nino-transforms-worlds-weather-20138\">on weather patterns\u003c/a> around the world. Now it is beginning to wane as the ocean cools, so what comes next?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s possible that by next fall, the tropical Pacific Ocean could seesaw into a state that is roughly El Niño’s opposite, forecasters say. Called \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warming-doubles-likelihood-extreme-la-ninas-18592\">La Niña\u003c/a>, this climate state comes with its own set of global impacts, including higher chances of a dry winter in \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/shift-may-bring-more-drought-california-20196\">drought-plagued California\u003c/a> and warm, wet weather in Southeast Asia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But El Niños and La Niñas are particularly difficult to predict at this time of year, so exactly what happens remains to be seen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Warm-Cool Cycle\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño and La Niña are part of a cycle that runs over the course of three to seven years. While El Niño features warmer-than-normal ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific — much warmer in the case of this exceptional El Niño — La Niña features colder-than-normal waters in the same region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those changes in ocean temperatures are accompanied by changes in the atmosphere: During El Niño, convection and rains shift eastward and the normal east-to-west trade winds weaken or even reverse, while during La Niña, the normal dry state of the eastern Pacific intensifies along with the trade winds. Those atmospheric effects set off a domino effect around the world that can shift normal weather patterns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This El Niño reached a peak in ocean temperatures in November and those waters have been cooling off ever since, following the normal progression. That decline means “it’s almost a certainty that [the tropical Pacific Ocean is] going to go back to neutral in about two months,” \u003ca href=\"http://iri.columbia.edu/contact/staff-directory/anthony-barnston/\">Anthony Barnston\u003c/a>, chief forecaster at Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s still up in the air is whether it stays neutral or continues to cool until it reaches a La Niña state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_626778\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 620px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-626778\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/La_Nina_winter.jpg\" alt=\"How La Niña impacts global weather patterns.\" width=\"620\" height=\"370\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/La_Nina_winter.jpg 620w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/La_Nina_winter-400x239.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">How La Niña impacts global weather patterns. \u003ccite>(NOAA)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>El Niño’s Self-Sabotage\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>La Niña’s don’t always follow after El Niños, but seem more likely to do so after a strong El Niño, \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/will-la-ni%C3%B1a-follow-el-ni%C3%B1o-what-past-tells-us\">based on the historical record\u003c/a>. That record is quite short, though, which makes it hard to draw firm conclusions from it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the underlying physics of the El Niño cycle offers some reason to think that strong El Niños do tend to lead to La Niñas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niños generate large-scale waves in the ocean (these aren’t like the waves that break on the water’s surface). One set, called Kelvin waves, travel from west to east and cause warming, enhancing the El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other, called Rossby waves, travel in the opposite direction until they reach Indonesia, where they bounce off the landmass and head back east. Eventually, the Rossby waves catch up to the El Niño and cause cooling, in something of an act of self-sabotage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The El Niño sort of kills itself,” Barnston said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The stronger the El Niño, the stronger the Rossby waves it generates. If those waves are strong enough, they can not only kill off the El Niño, but “overshoot” in the other direction, driving the system towards a La Niña state, Barnston said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Current Cooling\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Rossby waves usually disrupt the El Niño pattern about six months after it peaks, or, right about now. Indeed, forecasters have noted a cool down below the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific in recent weeks, though surface water temperatures are still firmly in El Niño territory. They will gradually follow the subsurface cool-off, though, likely reaching neutral territory by late spring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If a La Niña is in the offing, those waters should be cooling further by mid-summer, though, like El Niño, it wouldn’t peak until late fall or early winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now Barnston puts the odds at slightly better than 50 percent that a La Niña does develop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What is very unlikely to happen is a return to El Niño conditions, which almost never occur in back-to-back years because of that self-sabotage mechanism. (It only tends to happen when there is an unusually late-developing El Niño that can then persist and peak again the following year.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>La Niña, on the other hand, can last for two to three years because the large-scale waves it generates aren’t as well-defined. “It’s not equal and opposite to what you get during El Niño,” Barnston said, so La Niña doesn’t tend to undercut itself the way El Niño does.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s far too early to tell how strong any La Niña that does develop might be, forecasters say.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s difficult to forecast strength of events. An added difficulty is that things change pretty quickly when an event is decaying — this is the time of year when the accuracy of forecasts is lower,” Catherine Ganter, a senior climatologist with Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnston said they should have a better idea of the potential strength by August, possibly a bit sooner if there is a very sharp cool down in Pacific Ocean temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Man-made global warming is making America sicker, and it’s only going to get worse, according to a new \u003ca href=\"https://health2016.globalchange.gov/\">federal government report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 332-page report issued Monday by the Obama administration said global warming will make the air dirtier, water more contaminated and food more tainted. It warned of diseases, such as those spread by ticks and mosquitoes, longer allergy seasons, and thousands of heat wave deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www3.epa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Environmental Protection Agency\u003c/a> chief Gina McCarthy said if that’s not enough, climate change affects people’s mental health, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not just about polar bears and melting ice caps. It’s about our families. It’s about our future,” McCarthy said at a White House event unveiling the report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change affects more people in more ways than anything doctors have seen in the past, said Surgeon General Vivek Murthy. He said the report allows doctors to better quantify “the sheer number of pathways through which climate affects health.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That includes air pollution worsened from power plants, pollen and even wildfires, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Not being able to breathe is one of the most frightening experience” for people, Murthy said. “We’re talking about scary moments for parents and children.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asthma is already the No. 1 cause of children going to the hospital and “now we’re seeing it worsening because of the heat, the allergens,” and air pollution, said Lynn Goldman, dean of the George Washington University’s public health school.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>White House science adviser John Holdren highlighted heat waves, saying that even with some reduction in emissions of heat-trapping gases globally, “we can see thousands to tens of thousands of heat-related deaths in the United States each summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Centers of Disease Control and Prevention computer simulations of 209 cities show that extra summer heat deaths will outweigh fewer winter cold deaths from climate change, said CDC’s Shubhayu Saha, a study lead author.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Holdren said the report is based on more than 1,800 published scientific studies and new federal research, and was reviewed by the National Academies of Sciences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The report clearly establishes that climate change is a major threat to public health in the United States,” said Howard Frumkin, dean of the University of Washington’s public health school, who wasn’t part of the report. He said the government isn’t doing enough. “There is a vast disconnect between the magnitude of the problem, as outlined by this report, and the response of government health agencies.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Josh Lederman contributed to this report.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Man-made global warming is making America sicker, and it’s only going to get worse, according to a new \u003ca href=\"https://health2016.globalchange.gov/\">federal government report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 332-page report issued Monday by the Obama administration said global warming will make the air dirtier, water more contaminated and food more tainted. It warned of diseases, such as those spread by ticks and mosquitoes, longer allergy seasons, and thousands of heat wave deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www3.epa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Environmental Protection Agency\u003c/a> chief Gina McCarthy said if that’s not enough, climate change affects people’s mental health, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not just about polar bears and melting ice caps. It’s about our families. It’s about our future,” McCarthy said at a White House event unveiling the report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change affects more people in more ways than anything doctors have seen in the past, said Surgeon General Vivek Murthy. He said the report allows doctors to better quantify “the sheer number of pathways through which climate affects health.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That includes air pollution worsened from power plants, pollen and even wildfires, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Not being able to breathe is one of the most frightening experience” for people, Murthy said. “We’re talking about scary moments for parents and children.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asthma is already the No. 1 cause of children going to the hospital and “now we’re seeing it worsening because of the heat, the allergens,” and air pollution, said Lynn Goldman, dean of the George Washington University’s public health school.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>White House science adviser John Holdren highlighted heat waves, saying that even with some reduction in emissions of heat-trapping gases globally, “we can see thousands to tens of thousands of heat-related deaths in the United States each summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Centers of Disease Control and Prevention computer simulations of 209 cities show that extra summer heat deaths will outweigh fewer winter cold deaths from climate change, said CDC’s Shubhayu Saha, a study lead author.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Holdren said the report is based on more than 1,800 published scientific studies and new federal research, and was reviewed by the National Academies of Sciences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The report clearly establishes that climate change is a major threat to public health in the United States,” said Howard Frumkin, dean of the University of Washington’s public health school, who wasn’t part of the report. He said the government isn’t doing enough. “There is a vast disconnect between the magnitude of the problem, as outlined by this report, and the response of government health agencies.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Josh Lederman contributed to this report.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "What Will California Do With Too Much Solar?",
"headTitle": "What Will California Do With Too Much Solar? | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Solar energy records are falling left and right in California these days, as the state steams ahead toward its ambitious renewable energy goals.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the success of solar has brought about a hidden downside: on some perfectly sunny days, solar farms are being told to turn off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because in the spring and fall, when Californians aren’t using much air conditioning and demand for electricity is low, the surge of midday solar power is more than the state can use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s becoming a growing concern for those running the grid at the California Independent System Operator. At their Folsom headquarters, a team continually manages the power supply for most of the state, keeping the lights on for some 30 million people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s constantly solving a constant problem, meaning you’re always trying to balance,” says Nancy Traweek, who directs system operations for the grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>TOO MUCH RENEWABLE POWER\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003cb> On March 27, a sunny day, some solar farms had to shut down because there was more power on the grid than Californians were using. \u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"sharedaddy show-for-medium-up\">\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_611449\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1730px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-611449\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Solar_Desktop.jpg\" alt=\"SOURCE: California ISO. \" width=\"1730\" height=\"1000\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">SOURCE: California ISO. \u003ccite>(Teodros Hailye/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ups and Downs of Renewables\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the past, balancing California’s electric was fairly straightforward. The power supply was constant, coming from natural gas and nuclear power plants that put out a steady stream of electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the growth of solar and wind power has thrown a wild card in the mix. The sun and wind are much less predictable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“All of a sudden you have a major cloud that comes over a solar field,” Traweek says, and that causes the solar power to drop off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That [power] needs to come from somewhere else immediately,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So grid operators have to keep the natural gas plants running in the background. If they’re turned off, many take four to eight hours start up again.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California’s highest demand for electricity also happens right as the sun goes down, when Californians come home from work and lights turn on. Grid operators need natural gas power plants at the ready to meet that peak and to fill the gap that’s left by solar power.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Listen to the Story:\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nhttp://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2016/04/WEBWesternGridSommer160404.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But add up all those energy sources – solar, wind, natural gas, as well as hydropower, nuclear and others – and on some days, they’re making more electricity than California needs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When it gets really bad, now we really got to start cutting as much as we possibly can,” Traweek says. “If that’s not done, then you could have a blackout.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, grid operators have to tell solar farms to shut off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s zero-carbon, clean energy,” says Keith Casey, a vice president at the California Independent System Operator. “It would just be a travesty to curtail large amounts of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Casey says the problem will only get worse as more solar and wind connect to the grid. California plans to hit 50 percent renewable energy by 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Joining Grids Across the West\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California’s grid operator is developing a solution, one that is garnering controversy across state lines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_610986\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-610986 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/CAISO2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"448\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/CAISO2.jpg 640w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/CAISO2-400x280.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Grid operators manage 80 percent of California’s transmission system at the California Independent System Operator. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Right now, California’s grid runs mostly on its own, like an island. But there are power lines reaching across the West.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You’re operating your little piece of the system,” Casey says, “but if you can operate it as an integrated whole, you can just operate the system more efficiently.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, Casey is proposing California join up with its neighbors. Instead of having lots of electric grids across the West, each doing their own thing, there would be a larger regional grid, sharing power across state lines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When California has too much solar power, neighboring states would buy it, preventing California from having to switch off the solar farms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a win-win,” Casey says. “We really think we need to seize the most efficient opportunities that are out there for integrating renewables.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This marriage of electric grids would start with \u003ca href=\"https://www.pacificorp.com/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">PacifiCorp\u003c/a>, a utility that runs its own grid in Oregon, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"http://www.caiso.com/Documents/StudyBenefits-PacifiCorp-ISOIntegration.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">study commissioned by PacifiCorp \u003c/a>found that customers across both regions would save $154 to $335 million annually through sharing lower-cost renewable energy and avoiding turning off solar farms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Coal Power on the Line\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But PacifiCorp isn’t a partner everyone wants to get in bed with.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“PacifiCorp is by far the largest owner of coal plants in the Western United States,” says Travis Ritchie, an attorney with the Sierra Club. In 2014, more than 60 percent of PacifiCorp’s electricity came from coal power.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_611762\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 378px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-611762\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-611762\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-800x965.jpg\" alt=\"ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories\" width=\"378\" height=\"456\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-800x965.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-400x482.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-768x926.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-1180x1423.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-960x1158.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories.jpg 1254w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 378px) 100vw, 378px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">SOURCE: \u003ccite>(California Independent System Operator)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“That’s a big problem for California,” he says. “We have put forth a lot of really great policy measures to stop coal for climate reasons, for pollution reasons.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>PacifiCorp’s coal power wouldn’t necessarily flow into California. The state’s climate change law, AB 32, means that electricity from other states has a price tacked on that raises the cost of fossil fuels to account for their carbon emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Ritchie warns that joining a regional electric grid, governed across several states with different agendas, could mean giving up some of California’s autonomy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Will California actually lose the ability lead on climate issues if it gives up its power to Utah and Wyoming, two states that are actively fighting everything about climate change that California is working to promote?” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Several state legislators have the same concern. In February, they \u003ca href=\"https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwIXiaj8LQ3GR2VPQWpFTmx5Nnc/view\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sent a letter\u003c/a> to Governor Jerry Brown raising red flags about the merger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have made great strides to make sure that our electricity is as clean as possible,” says California Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon. “I want to make sure that joining a wider grid doesn’t impact that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Storing vs. Sharing\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Others point out that joining electric grids isn’t the only way to deal with excess renewable energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”EfB9kf250phSVRQi9fJGcucaaiRZAMC8″]“Energy storage is probably the biggest hammer in the toolbox,” says Paul Denholm, analyst at the National Renewable Energy Lab in Colorado.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Large batteries and other energy storage technologies could store the excess solar energy California is producing during the day. But until prices come down, storage remains costly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Denholm says according to his analysis, California will probably need both storage and a regional grid to reach its 50 percent renewable goal in the most cost-effective way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other types of energy, apart from solar, could also become more flexible. Many natural gas power plants have signed contracts with utilities that limit how often they can be turned off or ramped up and down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need to make sure we can schedule the power plants to be available when needed,” Denholm says. “Those contracts have to change so the output from the power plants can vary.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With renewable energy growing at a rapid clip, other states could soon face the same challenges.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are looking at a tipping point for wind and solar,” Denholm says. “Wind and solar in many places in the country is actually the cheapest option. And that’s the first time in history where that’s been the case.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The California Independent System Operator and PacifiCorp will spend the next two years studying their plan to integrate, as well as making their case before regulators in several states. If the plan moves ahead, the two would join up by 2019.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Solar energy records are falling left and right in California these days, as the state steams ahead toward its ambitious renewable energy goals.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the success of solar has brought about a hidden downside: on some perfectly sunny days, solar farms are being told to turn off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because in the spring and fall, when Californians aren’t using much air conditioning and demand for electricity is low, the surge of midday solar power is more than the state can use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s becoming a growing concern for those running the grid at the California Independent System Operator. At their Folsom headquarters, a team continually manages the power supply for most of the state, keeping the lights on for some 30 million people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s constantly solving a constant problem, meaning you’re always trying to balance,” says Nancy Traweek, who directs system operations for the grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>TOO MUCH RENEWABLE POWER\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003cb> On March 27, a sunny day, some solar farms had to shut down because there was more power on the grid than Californians were using. \u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"sharedaddy show-for-medium-up\">\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_611449\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1730px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-611449\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Solar_Desktop.jpg\" alt=\"SOURCE: California ISO. \" width=\"1730\" height=\"1000\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">SOURCE: California ISO. \u003ccite>(Teodros Hailye/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ups and Downs of Renewables\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the past, balancing California’s electric was fairly straightforward. The power supply was constant, coming from natural gas and nuclear power plants that put out a steady stream of electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the growth of solar and wind power has thrown a wild card in the mix. The sun and wind are much less predictable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“All of a sudden you have a major cloud that comes over a solar field,” Traweek says, and that causes the solar power to drop off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That [power] needs to come from somewhere else immediately,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So grid operators have to keep the natural gas plants running in the background. If they’re turned off, many take four to eight hours start up again.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California’s highest demand for electricity also happens right as the sun goes down, when Californians come home from work and lights turn on. Grid operators need natural gas power plants at the ready to meet that peak and to fill the gap that’s left by solar power.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Listen to the Story:\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>But add up all those energy sources – solar, wind, natural gas, as well as hydropower, nuclear and others – and on some days, they’re making more electricity than California needs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When it gets really bad, now we really got to start cutting as much as we possibly can,” Traweek says. “If that’s not done, then you could have a blackout.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, grid operators have to tell solar farms to shut off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s zero-carbon, clean energy,” says Keith Casey, a vice president at the California Independent System Operator. “It would just be a travesty to curtail large amounts of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Casey says the problem will only get worse as more solar and wind connect to the grid. California plans to hit 50 percent renewable energy by 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Joining Grids Across the West\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California’s grid operator is developing a solution, one that is garnering controversy across state lines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_610986\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-610986 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/CAISO2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"448\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/CAISO2.jpg 640w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/CAISO2-400x280.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Grid operators manage 80 percent of California’s transmission system at the California Independent System Operator. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Right now, California’s grid runs mostly on its own, like an island. But there are power lines reaching across the West.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You’re operating your little piece of the system,” Casey says, “but if you can operate it as an integrated whole, you can just operate the system more efficiently.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, Casey is proposing California join up with its neighbors. Instead of having lots of electric grids across the West, each doing their own thing, there would be a larger regional grid, sharing power across state lines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When California has too much solar power, neighboring states would buy it, preventing California from having to switch off the solar farms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a win-win,” Casey says. “We really think we need to seize the most efficient opportunities that are out there for integrating renewables.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This marriage of electric grids would start with \u003ca href=\"https://www.pacificorp.com/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">PacifiCorp\u003c/a>, a utility that runs its own grid in Oregon, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"http://www.caiso.com/Documents/StudyBenefits-PacifiCorp-ISOIntegration.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">study commissioned by PacifiCorp \u003c/a>found that customers across both regions would save $154 to $335 million annually through sharing lower-cost renewable energy and avoiding turning off solar farms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Coal Power on the Line\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But PacifiCorp isn’t a partner everyone wants to get in bed with.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“PacifiCorp is by far the largest owner of coal plants in the Western United States,” says Travis Ritchie, an attorney with the Sierra Club. In 2014, more than 60 percent of PacifiCorp’s electricity came from coal power.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_611762\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 378px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-611762\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-611762\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-800x965.jpg\" alt=\"ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories\" width=\"378\" height=\"456\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-800x965.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-400x482.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-768x926.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-1180x1423.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories-960x1158.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/ISO-PacifiCorpTerritories.jpg 1254w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 378px) 100vw, 378px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">SOURCE: \u003ccite>(California Independent System Operator)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“That’s a big problem for California,” he says. “We have put forth a lot of really great policy measures to stop coal for climate reasons, for pollution reasons.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>PacifiCorp’s coal power wouldn’t necessarily flow into California. The state’s climate change law, AB 32, means that electricity from other states has a price tacked on that raises the cost of fossil fuels to account for their carbon emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Ritchie warns that joining a regional electric grid, governed across several states with different agendas, could mean giving up some of California’s autonomy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Will California actually lose the ability lead on climate issues if it gives up its power to Utah and Wyoming, two states that are actively fighting everything about climate change that California is working to promote?” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Several state legislators have the same concern. In February, they \u003ca href=\"https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwIXiaj8LQ3GR2VPQWpFTmx5Nnc/view\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sent a letter\u003c/a> to Governor Jerry Brown raising red flags about the merger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have made great strides to make sure that our electricity is as clean as possible,” says California Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon. “I want to make sure that joining a wider grid doesn’t impact that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Storing vs. Sharing\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Others point out that joining electric grids isn’t the only way to deal with excess renewable energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>“Energy storage is probably the biggest hammer in the toolbox,” says Paul Denholm, analyst at the National Renewable Energy Lab in Colorado.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Large batteries and other energy storage technologies could store the excess solar energy California is producing during the day. But until prices come down, storage remains costly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Denholm says according to his analysis, California will probably need both storage and a regional grid to reach its 50 percent renewable goal in the most cost-effective way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other types of energy, apart from solar, could also become more flexible. Many natural gas power plants have signed contracts with utilities that limit how often they can be turned off or ramped up and down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need to make sure we can schedule the power plants to be available when needed,” Denholm says. “Those contracts have to change so the output from the power plants can vary.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With renewable energy growing at a rapid clip, other states could soon face the same challenges.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are looking at a tipping point for wind and solar,” Denholm says. “Wind and solar in many places in the country is actually the cheapest option. And that’s the first time in history where that’s been the case.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The California Independent System Operator and PacifiCorp will spend the next two years studying their plan to integrate, as well as making their case before regulators in several states. If the plan moves ahead, the two would join up by 2019.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"headTitle": "California May Be in for Greater Weather Extremes | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>One of the big questions in the news this winter has been: When will the drought be over?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study published today in Science Advances suggests that may not be the most useful question to ask. Better might be: Is the climate of California starting to see even wider swings between dry and wet conditions? We’re already a land of “feast or famine” weather. How will we manage our water future if we’re experiencing greater extremes?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A team of us from Stanford, Northwestern and Columbia conducted the study to find out whether the atmospheric conditions associated with California’s most extreme wet years or most extreme dry years are happening more often.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The short answer? Yes. The atmospheric pressure patterns we see off the coast of California during extreme dry years are happening more frequently in recent decades—and the patterns that lead to our wettest years may be becoming more frequent as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Happened During California’s Extreme Drought?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since early 2013, the state of California has been in the grip of an extraordinary \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1797\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">multi-year drought\u003c/a>. The accumulated loss of precipitation over the four years so far is \u003ca href=\"http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/4/e1501344\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unprecedented\u003c/a> in the century we’ve been recording this information. If you add the drying effects of record-high temperatures, the 2013-2016 event may, in fact, be the most severe \u003ca href=\"http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/california-s-drought-may-be-worst-in-a-millennium/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in a millennium\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The amount of water stored in the critically important Sierra Nevada snowpack reached its lowest level in \u003ca href=\"http://www.livescience.com/52265-california-snowpack-shrinking.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">over 500 years\u003c/a> in 2015, and the loss of groundwater in the state’s aquifers has literally \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140514133440.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">moved mountains\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The drought has had \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066628/full\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">widespread effects\u003c/a> on the state’s economy and environment, slashing the amount of water available for agricultural and \u003ca href=\"http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/07/drought-5000-californians-dont-have-running-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">urban\u003c/a> uses, raising \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/15/us/california-fire-season-drought.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wildfire risk\u003c/a> and dramatically increasing \u003ca href=\"http://phys.org/news/2015-12-tens-millions-trees-danger-california.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tree mortality\u003c/a>. Across the state there have been adverse effects upon riverine and marine \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-drought-fish-20150824-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ecosystems\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://bigstory.ap.org/article/58e0c7bfe91442f79e304fbdc1bec95d/damage-sinking-land-costing-california-billions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">infrastructure damage\u003c/a> to roads and pipelines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_611160\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 491px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_1.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-611160\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-611160\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_1.jpg\" alt=\"The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, Oct-May 2012-2015. \" width=\"491\" height=\"430\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_1.jpg 491w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_1-400x350.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 491px) 100vw, 491px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, Oct-May 2012-2015. \u003ccite>(Adapted from Swain 2015, GRL)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The atmospheric pattern responsible for ushering in this \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/california-shattering-temperature-records-18871\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">record-breaking\u003c/a> warmth and dryness is the now-infamous “\u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ridiculously Resilient Ridge\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The RRR is an unusually persistent stretch of atmospheric high pressure sitting over the Pacific ocean off the coast of California. This sluggish Ridge hovered right in the path of storms headed for the state. Like a boulder displacing a narrow stream of water, the RRR consistently \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1797\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deflected water-bearing storms\u003c/a> to the north of California, precisely during the typical “rainy season” months of October to May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Much of the state was therefore left high and dry—even during what is typically the wettest time of year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California Is Unusually Susceptible \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We get the majority (66%) of our annual precipitation during just the four months of December through March. Unlikely many places on Earth, our summers are very dry: less than 5 percent of our precipitation falls between June and September. And we don’t tend to get our annual water supply from a large number of storms. Remarkably, most of\u003ca href=\"https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/atmospheric-river-explained\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> California’s precipitation\u003c/a> in a typical year falls over the course of a relatively small number of strong storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”20CHPhjlyqXilSZvOkrET0Pg38tDZXG9″]Here’s why: the state lies just south of the typical winter storm track in the Pacific, so Californians have to rely on the rain and snow that falls when the jet stream dips south—and it does this for relatively short intervals—sending storm systems barreling toward our coastline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The most important of these storms are associated with “\u003ca href=\"http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a>.” These narrow plumes of concentrated atmospheric water vapor bring tremendous amount of rains mountain snowfall when the move inland—increasing flood risk but also bringing much needed water to the Golden State.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This striking dependence of California’s entire water supply upon the occurrence of just a few atmospheric river events each winter means that a surplus or deficit of just one or two such storms can quickly increase the risk of flood or drought in any given year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As a result, diversion of the Pacific storm track by unusually persistent winter ridges is the most common cause of California droughts, since there is little opportunity to make up for accumulated water deficits during the rest of the year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Patterns Associated With Drought Are Occurring More Frequently \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Our team investigated whether North Pacific pressure patterns similar to those we saw during California’s most extremely dry, and wet periods were occurring more frequently in recent decades. We looked at the years from 1948 through 2015, and the months of October through May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We found that certain unusual atmospheric patterns are indeed occurring more often. Over the past three decades, we’ve experienced more frequent patterns similar to what we saw during California’s extremely warm and dry years of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These years—during which the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/2947\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rose to prominence\u003c/a>—were characterized by unusually low pressure over the Pacific north of Hawaii, and a very strong ridge of high pressure along the entire West Coast of North America, from southern California all the way to the Alaskan arctic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_611338\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 612px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_4.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-611338\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-611338\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_4.jpg\" alt=\"Long-term trends in California drought severity (upper left), temperature (upper right), Sierra Nevada snowpack (lower left), and precipitation (lower right). The red shaded regions depict the 2013-2015 drought. \" width=\"612\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_4.jpg 612w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_4-400x258.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Long-term trends in California drought severity (upper left), temperature (upper right), Sierra Nevada snowpack (lower left), and precipitation (lower right). The red shaded regions depict the 2013-2015 drought. \u003ccite>(Adapted from Swain 2015, GRL)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>…But Not at the Expense of Wet Year Patterns\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given the increase we saw in pressure patterns similar to California’s driest years, it might be reasonable to expect that patterns associated with the wettest years have become less common. But that’s not what we found.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Instead, one of two methods we used in this study suggested that several wet patterns have actually increased in recent decades, while the other suggested little change. Therefore, while we are quite confident that patterns conducive to extreme warmth and dryness in California are happening more frequently, this does not seem to be at the expense of those patterns associated with California’s wettest years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>‘A Strong and Persistent Ridginess’\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A number of studies have already shown that the long-term temperature trend associated with global warming has increased the \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/PNAS-Diffenbaugh-Drought-Climate-Brief-03032015-FINAL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">likelihood\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news-events/warming-climate-deepening-california-drought\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">severity\u003c/a> of drought in California—even when there are no significant changes in precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Our new work demonstrates that increasingly frequent atmospheric patterns conducive to extreme drought in California are indeed increasing, but that patterns conducive to very wet years may also be increasing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We haven’t traced the exact cause of this increase in patterns similar to the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, but we do find there’s an increasingly strong and persistent “ridginess” off the West Coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Finally, it is worth noting that climate models for 21st century California depict a \u003ca href=\"http://www.pnas.org/content/112/13/3931.abstract\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">much warmer\u003c/a> future, likely accompanied by \u003ca href=\"http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4639898/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">increasingly large\u003c/a> swings between \u003ca href=\"http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00624.1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dry and wet\u003c/a> conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It is fascinating that such large changes in the character of California precipitation are occurring despite little long-term change in average precipitation—which highlights the critical importance of considering changes in the most extreme years when planning for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Daniel Swain is an atmospheric scientist at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences. A version of this post also appears on his \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">California Weather\u003c/a> blog. Other authors on the study published today are: \u003ca href=\"http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/faculty/horton-daniel.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daniel Horton\u003c/a>, Northwestern University; \u003ca href=\"http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/user/dsingh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Deepti Singh\u003c/a>, Columbia University; and \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/noah-diffenbaugh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Noah Diffenbaugh\u003c/a>, Stanford University. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>One of the big questions in the news this winter has been: When will the drought be over?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study published today in Science Advances suggests that may not be the most useful question to ask. Better might be: Is the climate of California starting to see even wider swings between dry and wet conditions? We’re already a land of “feast or famine” weather. How will we manage our water future if we’re experiencing greater extremes?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A team of us from Stanford, Northwestern and Columbia conducted the study to find out whether the atmospheric conditions associated with California’s most extreme wet years or most extreme dry years are happening more often.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The short answer? Yes. The atmospheric pressure patterns we see off the coast of California during extreme dry years are happening more frequently in recent decades—and the patterns that lead to our wettest years may be becoming more frequent as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Happened During California’s Extreme Drought?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since early 2013, the state of California has been in the grip of an extraordinary \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1797\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">multi-year drought\u003c/a>. The accumulated loss of precipitation over the four years so far is \u003ca href=\"http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/4/e1501344\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unprecedented\u003c/a> in the century we’ve been recording this information. If you add the drying effects of record-high temperatures, the 2013-2016 event may, in fact, be the most severe \u003ca href=\"http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/california-s-drought-may-be-worst-in-a-millennium/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in a millennium\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The amount of water stored in the critically important Sierra Nevada snowpack reached its lowest level in \u003ca href=\"http://www.livescience.com/52265-california-snowpack-shrinking.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">over 500 years\u003c/a> in 2015, and the loss of groundwater in the state’s aquifers has literally \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140514133440.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">moved mountains\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The drought has had \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066628/full\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">widespread effects\u003c/a> on the state’s economy and environment, slashing the amount of water available for agricultural and \u003ca href=\"http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/07/drought-5000-californians-dont-have-running-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">urban\u003c/a> uses, raising \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/15/us/california-fire-season-drought.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wildfire risk\u003c/a> and dramatically increasing \u003ca href=\"http://phys.org/news/2015-12-tens-millions-trees-danger-california.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tree mortality\u003c/a>. Across the state there have been adverse effects upon riverine and marine \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-drought-fish-20150824-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ecosystems\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://bigstory.ap.org/article/58e0c7bfe91442f79e304fbdc1bec95d/damage-sinking-land-costing-california-billions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">infrastructure damage\u003c/a> to roads and pipelines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_611160\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 491px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_1.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-611160\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-611160\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_1.jpg\" alt=\"The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, Oct-May 2012-2015. \" width=\"491\" height=\"430\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_1.jpg 491w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_1-400x350.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 491px) 100vw, 491px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, Oct-May 2012-2015. \u003ccite>(Adapted from Swain 2015, GRL)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The atmospheric pattern responsible for ushering in this \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/california-shattering-temperature-records-18871\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">record-breaking\u003c/a> warmth and dryness is the now-infamous “\u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ridiculously Resilient Ridge\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The RRR is an unusually persistent stretch of atmospheric high pressure sitting over the Pacific ocean off the coast of California. This sluggish Ridge hovered right in the path of storms headed for the state. Like a boulder displacing a narrow stream of water, the RRR consistently \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1797\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deflected water-bearing storms\u003c/a> to the north of California, precisely during the typical “rainy season” months of October to May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Much of the state was therefore left high and dry—even during what is typically the wettest time of year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California Is Unusually Susceptible \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We get the majority (66%) of our annual precipitation during just the four months of December through March. Unlikely many places on Earth, our summers are very dry: less than 5 percent of our precipitation falls between June and September. And we don’t tend to get our annual water supply from a large number of storms. Remarkably, most of\u003ca href=\"https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/atmospheric-river-explained\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> California’s precipitation\u003c/a> in a typical year falls over the course of a relatively small number of strong storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>Here’s why: the state lies just south of the typical winter storm track in the Pacific, so Californians have to rely on the rain and snow that falls when the jet stream dips south—and it does this for relatively short intervals—sending storm systems barreling toward our coastline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The most important of these storms are associated with “\u003ca href=\"http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a>.” These narrow plumes of concentrated atmospheric water vapor bring tremendous amount of rains mountain snowfall when the move inland—increasing flood risk but also bringing much needed water to the Golden State.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This striking dependence of California’s entire water supply upon the occurrence of just a few atmospheric river events each winter means that a surplus or deficit of just one or two such storms can quickly increase the risk of flood or drought in any given year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As a result, diversion of the Pacific storm track by unusually persistent winter ridges is the most common cause of California droughts, since there is little opportunity to make up for accumulated water deficits during the rest of the year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Patterns Associated With Drought Are Occurring More Frequently \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Our team investigated whether North Pacific pressure patterns similar to those we saw during California’s most extremely dry, and wet periods were occurring more frequently in recent decades. We looked at the years from 1948 through 2015, and the months of October through May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We found that certain unusual atmospheric patterns are indeed occurring more often. Over the past three decades, we’ve experienced more frequent patterns similar to what we saw during California’s extremely warm and dry years of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These years—during which the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/2947\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rose to prominence\u003c/a>—were characterized by unusually low pressure over the Pacific north of Hawaii, and a very strong ridge of high pressure along the entire West Coast of North America, from southern California all the way to the Alaskan arctic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_611338\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 612px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_4.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-611338\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-611338\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_4.jpg\" alt=\"Long-term trends in California drought severity (upper left), temperature (upper right), Sierra Nevada snowpack (lower left), and precipitation (lower right). The red shaded regions depict the 2013-2015 drought. \" width=\"612\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_4.jpg 612w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/blog_image_4-400x258.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Long-term trends in California drought severity (upper left), temperature (upper right), Sierra Nevada snowpack (lower left), and precipitation (lower right). The red shaded regions depict the 2013-2015 drought. \u003ccite>(Adapted from Swain 2015, GRL)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>…But Not at the Expense of Wet Year Patterns\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given the increase we saw in pressure patterns similar to California’s driest years, it might be reasonable to expect that patterns associated with the wettest years have become less common. But that’s not what we found.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Instead, one of two methods we used in this study suggested that several wet patterns have actually increased in recent decades, while the other suggested little change. Therefore, while we are quite confident that patterns conducive to extreme warmth and dryness in California are happening more frequently, this does not seem to be at the expense of those patterns associated with California’s wettest years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>‘A Strong and Persistent Ridginess’\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A number of studies have already shown that the long-term temperature trend associated with global warming has increased the \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/PNAS-Diffenbaugh-Drought-Climate-Brief-03032015-FINAL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">likelihood\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news-events/warming-climate-deepening-california-drought\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">severity\u003c/a> of drought in California—even when there are no significant changes in precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Our new work demonstrates that increasingly frequent atmospheric patterns conducive to extreme drought in California are indeed increasing, but that patterns conducive to very wet years may also be increasing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We haven’t traced the exact cause of this increase in patterns similar to the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, but we do find there’s an increasingly strong and persistent “ridginess” off the West Coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Finally, it is worth noting that climate models for 21st century California depict a \u003ca href=\"http://www.pnas.org/content/112/13/3931.abstract\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">much warmer\u003c/a> future, likely accompanied by \u003ca href=\"http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4639898/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">increasingly large\u003c/a> swings between \u003ca href=\"http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00624.1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dry and wet\u003c/a> conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It is fascinating that such large changes in the character of California precipitation are occurring despite little long-term change in average precipitation—which highlights the critical importance of considering changes in the most extreme years when planning for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Daniel Swain is an atmospheric scientist at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences. A version of this post also appears on his \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">California Weather\u003c/a> blog. Other authors on the study published today are: \u003ca href=\"http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/faculty/horton-daniel.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daniel Horton\u003c/a>, Northwestern University; \u003ca href=\"http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/user/dsingh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Deepti Singh\u003c/a>, Columbia University; and \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/noah-diffenbaugh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Noah Diffenbaugh\u003c/a>, Stanford University. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Peak Sierra Snowpack: Beats Last Year But No Drought Buster",
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"content": "\u003cp>The “April 1” snow survey in the Sierra Nevada is always anxiously awaited, in the truest sense of the term. Early April is when the \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action\">snowpack\u003c/a> is generally reckoned to have peaked and the spring melt season is upon us. If there isn’t sufficient snow by now to carry California through its parched summer, there likely won’t be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year’s April1 survey (done on March 30 this year for arcane reasons) was a good news/bad news affair.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The good news is that water content (which is what they actually measure, not accumulation) came in at 87 percent of average — that’s a far cry from last year at this time, when Governor Jerry Brown stood on a barren mountainside along Highway 50 to announce California’s first-ever statewide mandatory water restrictions. The snowpack on that date was virtually non-existent, shattering records for “bad” at about 5 percent of normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bad news is that same 87 percent of average, which is to put it another way, 13 percent below normal. After four years of drought, hydrologists have warned, that’s not going to cut it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“An average snowpack wouldn’t solve the hole we’re in from four years of dry soil moistures and low reservoirs, and overpumped groundwater,” says Peter Gleick, a hydrologist and head of the Oakland-based Pacific Institute. “We really needed more than average — a lot more than average.” (There’s more from Gleick on why we should expect more disappointing snowpacks in our \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/03/23/get-used-to-skimpier-snows-in-the-sierra/\">recent post\u003c/a>.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s hard for many to square the ongoing drought with reservoirs that have \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/03/28/was-march-the-rainfall-miracle-wed-hoped-for/\">filled rapidly in recent weeks\u003c/a>, water tumbling down huge spillways in many cases (often a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/02/29/california-reservoirs-are-dumping-water-in-a-drought-but-science-could-change-that/\">required precaution\u003c/a> against possible floods). California has been under a declared state of drought emergency since January of 2014, and water use restrictions have been extended through the coming summer, with some \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_29700280/california-drought-rules-likely-be-relaxed\">yet-to-be-announced modifications\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, state water managers urge that, “Residents should continue to conserve water due to drought conditions and impacts that are still felt in many parts of the state.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Spring blizzards are not unheard of. The survey comes just two days after Reno recorded it’s third biggest dumping of late-season snow on record — nearly 7 inches. But once the calendar turns to April, precipitation of all kinds drops off dramatically throughout California and the Sierra.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The “April 1” snow survey in the Sierra Nevada is always anxiously awaited, in the truest sense of the term. Early April is when the \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action\">snowpack\u003c/a> is generally reckoned to have peaked and the spring melt season is upon us. If there isn’t sufficient snow by now to carry California through its parched summer, there likely won’t be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year’s April1 survey (done on March 30 this year for arcane reasons) was a good news/bad news affair.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The good news is that water content (which is what they actually measure, not accumulation) came in at 87 percent of average — that’s a far cry from last year at this time, when Governor Jerry Brown stood on a barren mountainside along Highway 50 to announce California’s first-ever statewide mandatory water restrictions. The snowpack on that date was virtually non-existent, shattering records for “bad” at about 5 percent of normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bad news is that same 87 percent of average, which is to put it another way, 13 percent below normal. After four years of drought, hydrologists have warned, that’s not going to cut it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“An average snowpack wouldn’t solve the hole we’re in from four years of dry soil moistures and low reservoirs, and overpumped groundwater,” says Peter Gleick, a hydrologist and head of the Oakland-based Pacific Institute. “We really needed more than average — a lot more than average.” (There’s more from Gleick on why we should expect more disappointing snowpacks in our \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/03/23/get-used-to-skimpier-snows-in-the-sierra/\">recent post\u003c/a>.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s hard for many to square the ongoing drought with reservoirs that have \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/03/28/was-march-the-rainfall-miracle-wed-hoped-for/\">filled rapidly in recent weeks\u003c/a>, water tumbling down huge spillways in many cases (often a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/02/29/california-reservoirs-are-dumping-water-in-a-drought-but-science-could-change-that/\">required precaution\u003c/a> against possible floods). California has been under a declared state of drought emergency since January of 2014, and water use restrictions have been extended through the coming summer, with some \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_29700280/california-drought-rules-likely-be-relaxed\">yet-to-be-announced modifications\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, state water managers urge that, “Residents should continue to conserve water due to drought conditions and impacts that are still felt in many parts of the state.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Spring blizzards are not unheard of. The survey comes just two days after Reno recorded it’s third biggest dumping of late-season snow on record — nearly 7 inches. But once the calendar turns to April, precipitation of all kinds drops off dramatically throughout California and the Sierra.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "EPA Aims to Cut Methane Leaks From Natural Gas Companies",
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"content": "\u003cp>The Obama administration on Wednesday announced a new partnership with 41 energy companies that have agreed to voluntarily reduce methane emissions from natural gas operations to help combat climate change.[contextly_sidebar id=”ZDIdOu7d1PC70kD2JpUdRtF4n11ZtRkq”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www3.epa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Environmental Protection Agency\u003c/a> unveiled the \u003ca href=\"https://www3.epa.gov/gasstar/methanechallenge/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Natural Gas STAR Methane Challenge Program\u003c/a> at this week’s Global Methane Forum held in Washington. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, capable of trapping 25 times more heat in the atmosphere than an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said the voluntary program is meant to protect public health and combat climate change while providing a platform for companies to report actions taken to reduce methane emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The announcement comes after the worst methane leak in the nation’s history was finally plugged last month at an underground storage facility owned by Southern California Gas Co. The months-long disaster required the evacuation of 6,400 families and released the climate-warming equivalent of the annual pollution from more than a half million cars.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the massive California leak focused public attention of the issue, much smaller and more mundane leaks from natural gas operations in the United States have an even larger cumulative impact as a man-made cause of warming the planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>SoCal Gas is among those who’ve signed onto the voluntary emissions reduction program, along with major gas pipeline and distribution providers Duke Energy, Exelon, TransCanada, Xcel Energy and MidAmerican Energy Co.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>President Barack Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-sej-canada-arctic-climate-20160310-story.html\">committed earlier this month\u003c/a> to reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sectors by at least 40 percent over the next decade, compared to 2012 levels. Such reductions are seen as essential to achieving national targets for greenhouse gas reductions agreed to in December as part of the landmark climate accord reached in Paris.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Republicans in Congress have opposed such measures, saying they will cost the U.S. economy jobs while doing little to reduce climate change.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The Obama administration on Wednesday announced a new partnership with 41 energy companies that have agreed to voluntarily reduce methane emissions from natural gas operations to help combat climate change.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www3.epa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Environmental Protection Agency\u003c/a> unveiled the \u003ca href=\"https://www3.epa.gov/gasstar/methanechallenge/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Natural Gas STAR Methane Challenge Program\u003c/a> at this week’s Global Methane Forum held in Washington. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, capable of trapping 25 times more heat in the atmosphere than an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said the voluntary program is meant to protect public health and combat climate change while providing a platform for companies to report actions taken to reduce methane emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The announcement comes after the worst methane leak in the nation’s history was finally plugged last month at an underground storage facility owned by Southern California Gas Co. The months-long disaster required the evacuation of 6,400 families and released the climate-warming equivalent of the annual pollution from more than a half million cars.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the massive California leak focused public attention of the issue, much smaller and more mundane leaks from natural gas operations in the United States have an even larger cumulative impact as a man-made cause of warming the planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>SoCal Gas is among those who’ve signed onto the voluntary emissions reduction program, along with major gas pipeline and distribution providers Duke Energy, Exelon, TransCanada, Xcel Energy and MidAmerican Energy Co.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>President Barack Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-sej-canada-arctic-climate-20160310-story.html\">committed earlier this month\u003c/a> to reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sectors by at least 40 percent over the next decade, compared to 2012 levels. Such reductions are seen as essential to achieving national targets for greenhouse gas reductions agreed to in December as part of the landmark climate accord reached in Paris.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Republicans in Congress have opposed such measures, saying they will cost the U.S. economy jobs while doing little to reduce climate change.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low Peak, Again",
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"content": "\u003cp>It’s been a winter for the books in the Arctic. Capping off a season of sustained, mind-boggling warm weather and \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-ice-record-low-again-20044\">stunted sea ice growth\u003c/a>, the annual Arctic sea ice maximum hit its lowest level ever recorded. That marks the second straight year that the winter maximum ice extent set a record low.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’ve never seen such a warm, crazy winter in the Arctic,” Mark Serreze, director of the \u003ca href=\"https://nsidc.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Snow and Ice Data Center\u003c/a>, said in a statement. “The heat was relentless.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Along with other indicators like global average temperature and sea level rise, the record-setting sea ice cover is a key example of how much climate change is affecting the planet. Diminished sea ice can impact the ability of Arctic species like polar bears and walruses to find food, and could \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/polar-vortex-whats-the-role-of-warming-18654\">impact the weather\u003c/a> across North America, Europe and Asia, though that connection is still contentious.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Arctic is in crisis. Year by year, it’s slipping into a new state, and it’s hard to see how that won’t have an effect on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere,” Ted Scambos, an NSIDC lead scientist, said in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sets-yet-another-record-low-maximum-extent\">NSIDC announced on Monday\u003c/a> that Arctic sea ice hit its maximum extent for the winter on March 24, when it averaged 5.607 million square miles. That beat \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-hits-record-low-winter-peak-18795\">last year’s record low\u003c/a> of 5.612 million square miles, set on Feb. 25, 2015, by 5,000 square miles or just a bit smaller than the area of Connecticut.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/ferqrZi4WF4?rel=0\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year’s peak came earlier than is typical, while this year’s was later than the average peak time. That late peak date sets up a shorter-than-normal ice melt season this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The record low maximum doesn’t necessarily guarantee a record-low summer sea ice minimum, though, as ice melt depends heavily on Arctic weather patterns through the spring and summer months. Last year’s minimum was the\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-ice-4th-lowest-record-19455\">fourth lowest on record\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, though, Arctic sea ice has seen \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/video-old-arctic-sea-ice-20112\">a clear decline\u003c/a> since satellites first began monitoring it in 1979. Since that time, winter sea ice extent has dropped 3.2 percent per decade, while the summer minimum has seen an even steeper drop of 13.7 percent per decade.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That decline is linked to the rapid warming of the region, which is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the globe.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This winter, that warmth reached astounding levels, with air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean ranging from 4°F to 11°F (2°C to 6°C) above average in nearly every region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That incredible warmth helped contribute to January and February successively setting the record for the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/february-winter-record-warm-for-planet-20150\">most anomalously warm months\u003c/a> globally in more than 130 years of record keeping.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>It’s been a winter for the books in the Arctic. Capping off a season of sustained, mind-boggling warm weather and \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-ice-record-low-again-20044\">stunted sea ice growth\u003c/a>, the annual Arctic sea ice maximum hit its lowest level ever recorded. That marks the second straight year that the winter maximum ice extent set a record low.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’ve never seen such a warm, crazy winter in the Arctic,” Mark Serreze, director of the \u003ca href=\"https://nsidc.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Snow and Ice Data Center\u003c/a>, said in a statement. “The heat was relentless.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Along with other indicators like global average temperature and sea level rise, the record-setting sea ice cover is a key example of how much climate change is affecting the planet. Diminished sea ice can impact the ability of Arctic species like polar bears and walruses to find food, and could \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/polar-vortex-whats-the-role-of-warming-18654\">impact the weather\u003c/a> across North America, Europe and Asia, though that connection is still contentious.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Arctic is in crisis. Year by year, it’s slipping into a new state, and it’s hard to see how that won’t have an effect on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere,” Ted Scambos, an NSIDC lead scientist, said in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sets-yet-another-record-low-maximum-extent\">NSIDC announced on Monday\u003c/a> that Arctic sea ice hit its maximum extent for the winter on March 24, when it averaged 5.607 million square miles. That beat \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-hits-record-low-winter-peak-18795\">last year’s record low\u003c/a> of 5.612 million square miles, set on Feb. 25, 2015, by 5,000 square miles or just a bit smaller than the area of Connecticut.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/ferqrZi4WF4?rel=0\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year’s peak came earlier than is typical, while this year’s was later than the average peak time. That late peak date sets up a shorter-than-normal ice melt season this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The record low maximum doesn’t necessarily guarantee a record-low summer sea ice minimum, though, as ice melt depends heavily on Arctic weather patterns through the spring and summer months. Last year’s minimum was the\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-ice-4th-lowest-record-19455\">fourth lowest on record\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, though, Arctic sea ice has seen \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/video-old-arctic-sea-ice-20112\">a clear decline\u003c/a> since satellites first began monitoring it in 1979. Since that time, winter sea ice extent has dropped 3.2 percent per decade, while the summer minimum has seen an even steeper drop of 13.7 percent per decade.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That decline is linked to the rapid warming of the region, which is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the globe.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This winter, that warmth reached astounding levels, with air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean ranging from 4°F to 11°F (2°C to 6°C) above average in nearly every region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That incredible warmth helped contribute to January and February successively setting the record for the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/february-winter-record-warm-for-planet-20150\">most anomalously warm months\u003c/a> globally in more than 130 years of record keeping.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Pacific Ocean Pattern Could Predict U.S. Heat Waves",
"headTitle": "Pacific Ocean Pattern Could Predict U.S. Heat Waves | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>In the summer of 2012, a series of punishing heat waves roasted a large portion of the U.S. with \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-heat-wave-rolls-on-as-July-warmest-month-on-record-14773\">record-breaking temperatures\u003c/a> that helped spawn one of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-drought-inches-up-in-us-historical-rankings-14818\">most widespread and costliest droughts\u003c/a> to hit the country in decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Combined, the blistering temperatures and drought cost some $31.5 billion and led to dozens of deaths. The heat was so intense that it melted roads and airport runways.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”55yb5ocAOi72b5skbecQTqbNo12PsiS8″]In May of that year, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its forecast for the summer, it had \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/lack-of-warning-on-2012-us-drought-reflects-flaws-in-forecasting-14823\">predicted normal temperatures\u003c/a> for the Midwest and Northeast — a forecast that clearly fell short.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such seasonal forecasting is notoriously difficult, but a new study detailed Monday in the journal \u003ca href=\"http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/ngeo2687\">Nature Geoscience\u003c/a> points to a way to potentially better predict the type of \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-heat-climate-change-19641\">extreme heat\u003c/a> that engulfed the country that summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By identifying a pattern of Pacific Ocean temperatures that seems to precede major heat events in the eastern U.S., the study could help forecasters give farmers, cities and utilities more time to prepare. Such early warnings will become more and more critical as the world continues to warm and heat waves become more frequent and more intense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s been very hard to get accurate, long lead-time prediction,” \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/noah-diffenbaugh\">Noah Diffenbaugh\u003c/a>, a climate scientist at Stanford University who wasn’t involved with the research, said. “This paper is kind of extending our potential to have this longer time-scale predictability.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Ocean Pattern Pops Up\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://staff.ucar.edu/users/mckinnon\">Karen McKinnon\u003c/a> and her colleagues found the connection to Pacific Ocean temperatures by first looking at daily temperature data for the period from late June to late August from 1,613 weather stations across the U.S. going back to 1982. They divided the country into broad regions that tend to experience extreme heat at the same time. (A day with extreme heat was defined as one where the warmest 5 percent of weather stations in the region had temperatures at least 11.7°F, or 6.5°C, above average.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They focused on the largest grouping to emerge, which spanned from the Midwest down into the Southeast and up the coast to the Northeast. That area coincides with major population centers, as well as key farmland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers then looked to see if those days of extreme heat tended to correspond with any particular patterns of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. One pattern “just popped up super clearly,” McKinnon, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said. In an area spanning the breadth of the ocean basin and roughly the same latitudes as the U.S., they found cooler-than-normal waters to the north butted up against warmer-than-normal waters to the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And not only did the pattern show up at the same time as the extreme heat in the eastern U.S., the team could trace it back in time to before the heat wave hit and use it to predict the likelihood of the extreme hot weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers found the ocean pattern could be used to predict increased odds for extreme heat in the broad region up to 50 days out, with the skill of the predictions increasing closer to the event as the ocean pattern evolved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team used the pattern to do a “hindcast” of the punishing summer of 2012, and were able to predict increased odds of extreme heat for the end of June as early as mid-May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The pattern could also be used to predict extreme heat for some individual stations, the team found, mostly in a region in the middle of the country. The clearer connection there is likely due to the fact that the domes of hot air associated with heat waves tend to be centered on that area, McKinnon said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Exactly why the ocean pattern and extreme eastern U.S. heat are connected isn’t yet clear. The two main ideas, McKinnon said, are that the ocean pattern is influencing the atmosphere in a way that leads to the eventual heat dome buildup, or that both the ocean pattern and the heat dome are caused by some other third factor. McKinnon and her colleagues are working now with computer models to “try and tease apart a little bit more” what’s happening, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>‘Good Case Study’\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>One of the clearest implications of the \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/global-temperature\">overall warming of the planet\u003c/a> as greenhouse gases trap more and more heat in the atmosphere is that heat waves will \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/searing-heat-waves-could-become-annual-threat-20066\">become more common and more intense\u003c/a>, raising concerns about future impacts to agriculture, infrastructure and vulnerable populations. Such concerns could make long-term predictions particularly valuable in the future because “we can make decisions about how to manage risk,” Diffenbaugh said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One hurdle to jump, though, is to try to use this ocean pattern to make forecasts in real-time “to see if it really works,”\u003ca href=\"http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/\">Michael Ventrice\u003c/a>, an operational meteorologist with the Weather Company, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McKinnon and her team are planning to do just that this year, possibly starting sometime in April.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, the models that Ventrice and other seasonal forecasters use are predicting one of the hottest summers in recent years. The ocean pattern that McKinnon and her colleagues identified, though, is flipped, which would tend to suggest cooler summer weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a good case study,” Ventrice, who was not involved with the research, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Obviously it’s a little bit scary,” McKinnon said of doing real-time forecasts, because even if their forecast track record is good across many years, it could be off for a particular year. Other myriad climate factors play a role in the weather, and any one of them could overwhelm the Pacific Ocean connection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While there’s still work to do to understand and firm up the link between extreme heat and Pacific Ocean temperature patterns, the possibility is intriguing because “we’re always looking for better ways” to extend seasonal predictions, Ventrice said.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>In the summer of 2012, a series of punishing heat waves roasted a large portion of the U.S. with \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-heat-wave-rolls-on-as-July-warmest-month-on-record-14773\">record-breaking temperatures\u003c/a> that helped spawn one of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-drought-inches-up-in-us-historical-rankings-14818\">most widespread and costliest droughts\u003c/a> to hit the country in decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Combined, the blistering temperatures and drought cost some $31.5 billion and led to dozens of deaths. The heat was so intense that it melted roads and airport runways.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>In May of that year, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its forecast for the summer, it had \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/lack-of-warning-on-2012-us-drought-reflects-flaws-in-forecasting-14823\">predicted normal temperatures\u003c/a> for the Midwest and Northeast — a forecast that clearly fell short.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such seasonal forecasting is notoriously difficult, but a new study detailed Monday in the journal \u003ca href=\"http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/ngeo2687\">Nature Geoscience\u003c/a> points to a way to potentially better predict the type of \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-heat-climate-change-19641\">extreme heat\u003c/a> that engulfed the country that summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By identifying a pattern of Pacific Ocean temperatures that seems to precede major heat events in the eastern U.S., the study could help forecasters give farmers, cities and utilities more time to prepare. Such early warnings will become more and more critical as the world continues to warm and heat waves become more frequent and more intense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s been very hard to get accurate, long lead-time prediction,” \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/noah-diffenbaugh\">Noah Diffenbaugh\u003c/a>, a climate scientist at Stanford University who wasn’t involved with the research, said. “This paper is kind of extending our potential to have this longer time-scale predictability.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Ocean Pattern Pops Up\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://staff.ucar.edu/users/mckinnon\">Karen McKinnon\u003c/a> and her colleagues found the connection to Pacific Ocean temperatures by first looking at daily temperature data for the period from late June to late August from 1,613 weather stations across the U.S. going back to 1982. They divided the country into broad regions that tend to experience extreme heat at the same time. (A day with extreme heat was defined as one where the warmest 5 percent of weather stations in the region had temperatures at least 11.7°F, or 6.5°C, above average.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They focused on the largest grouping to emerge, which spanned from the Midwest down into the Southeast and up the coast to the Northeast. That area coincides with major population centers, as well as key farmland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers then looked to see if those days of extreme heat tended to correspond with any particular patterns of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. One pattern “just popped up super clearly,” McKinnon, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said. In an area spanning the breadth of the ocean basin and roughly the same latitudes as the U.S., they found cooler-than-normal waters to the north butted up against warmer-than-normal waters to the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And not only did the pattern show up at the same time as the extreme heat in the eastern U.S., the team could trace it back in time to before the heat wave hit and use it to predict the likelihood of the extreme hot weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers found the ocean pattern could be used to predict increased odds for extreme heat in the broad region up to 50 days out, with the skill of the predictions increasing closer to the event as the ocean pattern evolved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team used the pattern to do a “hindcast” of the punishing summer of 2012, and were able to predict increased odds of extreme heat for the end of June as early as mid-May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The pattern could also be used to predict extreme heat for some individual stations, the team found, mostly in a region in the middle of the country. The clearer connection there is likely due to the fact that the domes of hot air associated with heat waves tend to be centered on that area, McKinnon said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Exactly why the ocean pattern and extreme eastern U.S. heat are connected isn’t yet clear. The two main ideas, McKinnon said, are that the ocean pattern is influencing the atmosphere in a way that leads to the eventual heat dome buildup, or that both the ocean pattern and the heat dome are caused by some other third factor. McKinnon and her colleagues are working now with computer models to “try and tease apart a little bit more” what’s happening, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>‘Good Case Study’\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>One of the clearest implications of the \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/global-temperature\">overall warming of the planet\u003c/a> as greenhouse gases trap more and more heat in the atmosphere is that heat waves will \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/searing-heat-waves-could-become-annual-threat-20066\">become more common and more intense\u003c/a>, raising concerns about future impacts to agriculture, infrastructure and vulnerable populations. Such concerns could make long-term predictions particularly valuable in the future because “we can make decisions about how to manage risk,” Diffenbaugh said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One hurdle to jump, though, is to try to use this ocean pattern to make forecasts in real-time “to see if it really works,”\u003ca href=\"http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/\">Michael Ventrice\u003c/a>, an operational meteorologist with the Weather Company, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McKinnon and her team are planning to do just that this year, possibly starting sometime in April.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, the models that Ventrice and other seasonal forecasters use are predicting one of the hottest summers in recent years. The ocean pattern that McKinnon and her colleagues identified, though, is flipped, which would tend to suggest cooler summer weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a good case study,” Ventrice, who was not involved with the research, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Obviously it’s a little bit scary,” McKinnon said of doing real-time forecasts, because even if their forecast track record is good across many years, it could be off for a particular year. Other myriad climate factors play a role in the weather, and any one of them could overwhelm the Pacific Ocean connection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While there’s still work to do to understand and firm up the link between extreme heat and Pacific Ocean temperature patterns, the possibility is intriguing because “we’re always looking for better ways” to extend seasonal predictions, Ventrice said.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Was March the Rainfall Miracle We'd Hoped For?",
"headTitle": "Was March the Rainfall Miracle We’d Hoped For? | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Yes, the Bay Area got a lot of rain this winter. But was it enough to end the drought?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sadly, no. But there’s good news—this winter was the best we’ve had in five years in terms of precipitation. Rainfall in most Bay Area cities is about 100 percent of normal. San Francisco has received \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/rsa_getprod.php?prod=RNORR4RSA&wfo=cnrfc&version=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21 inches of rain this winter\u003c/a>, up from \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/rsa_getprod.php?prod=RNORR4RSA&wfo=cnrfc&version=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">16 inches last year\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We’re not in an emergency in northern California anymore in terms of drought.’\u003ccite>Paul Rogers,\u003cbr>KQED and the San Jose Mercury News\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>And the state’s two biggest reservoirs, \u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Oroville and Shasta, are now more than \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">80 percent full\u003c/a>. Last March, they hovered between \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/50-percent-of-average_reservoirs.jpg\">50 and 59 percent\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s really been kind of a wonderful last few months,” says \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/PaulRogersSJMN?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paul Rogers\u003c/a>, San Jose Mercury News Environment Reporter and KQED Science Managing Editor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño’s warm ocean waters fueled storms across the state, and northern California got most of the benefit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">We’re not in an emergency in northern California anymore in terms of drought,” Rogers says. “The soaking storms that we got in March really delivered their biggest punch in the most important watersheds in the state.” \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In addition to Oroville and Shasta, \u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Pardee reservoir, the biggest reservoir that serves the East Bay, is \u003ca href=\"https://www.ebmud.com/water-and-drought/about-your-water/water-supply/water-supply-reports/daily-water-supply-report/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">99 percent full\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_596537\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 1006px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-596537\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought.jpg\" alt=\"This map shows precipitation as a percentage of average for March. Areas in maroon are at less than 5 percent of average for this time of year while magenta areas are at more than 300 percent of average. \" width=\"1006\" height=\"1392\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought.jpg 1006w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought-400x553.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought-800x1107.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought-768x1063.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought-960x1328.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1006px) 100vw, 1006px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This map shows precipitation as a percentage of average for March. Areas in maroon are at less than 5 percent of average for this time of year while magenta areas are at more than 300 percent of average. \u003ccite>(NOAA)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">But Rogers says southern California wasn’t as lucky. Some cities, \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">like Los Angeles, are only at \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/rsa_getprod.php?prod=RNORR4RSA&wfo=cnrfc&version=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">50 percent of normal rainfall\u003c/a> for this time of year.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And farther south, say in Long Beach and Riverside, rainfall totals are at \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/rsa_getprod.php?prod=RNORR4RSA&wfo=cnrfc&version=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">44 percent of average\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It really is a tale of two droughts,” Rogers says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The mandatory water cutbacks Governor Jerry Brown enacted last April have been extended \u003ca href=\"http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/emergency_regulation.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">through October\u003c/a>, but some of those restrictions may be lifted in parts of northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Felicia Marcus, who chairs the \u003ca href=\"http://www.swrcb.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">State Water Resources Control Board\u003c/a>, has already \u003ca href=\"http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article66078267.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hinted at this\u003c/a>, Rogers noted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">“What you’re going to probably see,” he says, “is that, in northern California, particularly the further north you go, where we had a lot of rain, they’re going to have few or no mandatory rules. The further south you go, their rules are going to look pretty similar to what they had this past summer.”\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And although relaxed restriction are a positive sign—\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/01/11/when-will-californias-drought-end/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the drought isn’t legally over\u003c/a> until Brown says so and lifts his executive order.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That probably won’t happen this year.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Northern California's winter rains weren't enough to end the drought, but it's the most precipitation we’ve had in five years.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Yes, the Bay Area got a lot of rain this winter. But was it enough to end the drought?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sadly, no. But there’s good news—this winter was the best we’ve had in five years in terms of precipitation. Rainfall in most Bay Area cities is about 100 percent of normal. San Francisco has received \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/rsa_getprod.php?prod=RNORR4RSA&wfo=cnrfc&version=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21 inches of rain this winter\u003c/a>, up from \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/rsa_getprod.php?prod=RNORR4RSA&wfo=cnrfc&version=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">16 inches last year\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We’re not in an emergency in northern California anymore in terms of drought.’\u003ccite>Paul Rogers,\u003cbr>KQED and the San Jose Mercury News\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>And the state’s two biggest reservoirs, \u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Oroville and Shasta, are now more than \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">80 percent full\u003c/a>. Last March, they hovered between \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/50-percent-of-average_reservoirs.jpg\">50 and 59 percent\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s really been kind of a wonderful last few months,” says \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/PaulRogersSJMN?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paul Rogers\u003c/a>, San Jose Mercury News Environment Reporter and KQED Science Managing Editor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño’s warm ocean waters fueled storms across the state, and northern California got most of the benefit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">We’re not in an emergency in northern California anymore in terms of drought,” Rogers says. “The soaking storms that we got in March really delivered their biggest punch in the most important watersheds in the state.” \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In addition to Oroville and Shasta, \u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Pardee reservoir, the biggest reservoir that serves the East Bay, is \u003ca href=\"https://www.ebmud.com/water-and-drought/about-your-water/water-supply/water-supply-reports/daily-water-supply-report/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">99 percent full\u003c/a>.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_596537\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 1006px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-596537\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought.jpg\" alt=\"This map shows precipitation as a percentage of average for March. Areas in maroon are at less than 5 percent of average for this time of year while magenta areas are at more than 300 percent of average. \" width=\"1006\" height=\"1392\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought.jpg 1006w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought-400x553.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought-800x1107.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought-768x1063.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/CA-map_drought-960x1328.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1006px) 100vw, 1006px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This map shows precipitation as a percentage of average for March. Areas in maroon are at less than 5 percent of average for this time of year while magenta areas are at more than 300 percent of average. \u003ccite>(NOAA)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">But Rogers says southern California wasn’t as lucky. Some cities, \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">like Los Angeles, are only at \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/rsa_getprod.php?prod=RNORR4RSA&wfo=cnrfc&version=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">50 percent of normal rainfall\u003c/a> for this time of year.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And farther south, say in Long Beach and Riverside, rainfall totals are at \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/rsa_getprod.php?prod=RNORR4RSA&wfo=cnrfc&version=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">44 percent of average\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It really is a tale of two droughts,” Rogers says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The mandatory water cutbacks Governor Jerry Brown enacted last April have been extended \u003ca href=\"http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/emergency_regulation.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">through October\u003c/a>, but some of those restrictions may be lifted in parts of northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Felicia Marcus, who chairs the \u003ca href=\"http://www.swrcb.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">State Water Resources Control Board\u003c/a>, has already \u003ca href=\"http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article66078267.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hinted at this\u003c/a>, Rogers noted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">“What you’re going to probably see,” he says, “is that, in northern California, particularly the further north you go, where we had a lot of rain, they’re going to have few or no mandatory rules. The further south you go, their rules are going to look pretty similar to what they had this past summer.”\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And although relaxed restriction are a positive sign—\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/01/11/when-will-californias-drought-end/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the drought isn’t legally over\u003c/a> until Brown says so and lifts his executive order.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That probably won’t happen this year.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Get Used to Skimpier Snows in the Sierra",
"headTitle": "Get Used to Skimpier Snows in the Sierra | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>When the numbers come in for the closely watched April 1 survey of \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action\">snow in the Sierra Nevada\u003c/a>, California is likely to fall short of an average year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s a major disappointment in a winter that featured one of the \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/02/01/why-this-el-nino-is-one-for-the-books/\">strongest El Niño events on record\u003c/a>—warm ocean conditions that were widely expected to produce torrents of precipitation. It’s also a source of concern since the state has historically counted on runoff from accumulated mountain snows for about a third of its water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earlier this week, the northern Sierra snowpack briefly nudged the long-term average for April 1, while measurements from the southern Sierra were lagging badly, at just 75 percent of normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, both numbers are \u003ca href=\"http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86838\">a huge improvement\u003c/a> over last year at this time, when the Sierra Nevada range was virtually barren. But this year, almost-average isn’t going to cut it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_594396\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 561px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-594396 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/No-SnowSurvey_150401.png\" alt=\"Governor Jerry Brown looks on as last April's snow survey is conducted on barren ground along Highway 50, near Echo Summit.\" width=\"561\" height=\"381\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/No-SnowSurvey_150401.png 561w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/No-SnowSurvey_150401-400x272.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 561px) 100vw, 561px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Governor Jerry Brown looks on as last April’s snow survey is conducted on barren ground along Highway 50, near Echo Summit. \u003ccite>(Calif. Dept. of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We really needed more than average—a lot more than average,” says Peter Gleick, a hydrologist and co-founder of the Oakland-based \u003ca href=\"http://pacinst.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Average snowpack wouldn’t solve the hole we’re in from four years of dry soil moistures and low reservoirs and overpumped groundwater,” he says. “I think a fifth year of drought is now pretty inevitable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, El Niño conjured up enough rain and snow to slightly dampen Californians’ worries over water. In a survey just released by the Public Policy Institute of California, while 57 percent of respondents still consider water supply to be a “big problem,” water and drought slipped from the top spot among residents’ biggest concerns, yielding once again to jobs and the economy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Long-Term Outlook Not Encouraging\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gleick attended this week’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/22/fact-sheet-working-together-build-sustainable-water-future\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">White House Water Summit\u003c/a>, a confab designed to assess threats to future water security and seek solutions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Coinciding with that event, federal water managers issued some sobering projections for the continuing impact of California’s changing climate on key watersheds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins:\u003cbr>\nMean annual runoff is projected to increase as much as 5.4% in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers Delta by the 2050s. Moisture falling as rain instead of snow at lower elevations will increase wintertime runoff by 22% (December through March) and decrease springtime runoff by 27% (April through July).\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>And moving uphill toward Lake Tahoe, the outlook does not improve:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>Truckee River Basin:\u003cbr>\nMean annual runoff is projected to increase by from [sic] 5.7% by the 2050s. Warmer conditions are projected to transition wintertime snow into rain, increasing December–March runoff and decreasing April–July runoff. The median date of peak runoff is expected to be 19 days earlier by the end of the century.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Those increases in runoff might sound like a good thing. More water is more water, right?\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We don’t just care about how much water we get, we also care about when we get it’\u003ccite>Peter Gleick, hydrologist\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“I wouldn’t bank on that,” says Gleick, citing both the uncertainty inherent in precipitation models for California and rising temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We don’t just care about how much water we get, we also care about when we get it,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More wintertime and less springtime runoff is a sign that winter storms are dropping more rain and less snow, depleting the state’s “frozen reservoir” and leaving less water during the summer growing season, when farms and cities most need it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As John Upton \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/california-snowpack-returns-fears-future-20166\">writes for Climate Central\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>The low snowpack experienced last year is expected to become more common during the decades ahead — even though storminess in the region is \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/west-likely-stormier-with-climate-change-20009\">projected to increase\u003c/a>. Last year’s was the \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action\">smallest snowpack on record\u003c/a>, caused primarily by a shortfall in large winter storms, fueling a withering drought \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/global-warming-fueled-heat-calif-drought-18719\">exacerbated by high temperatures\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Within 50 years, snowpacks as diminutive as last year’s could occur on average more than once every decade, said \u003ca href=\"https://profile.usgs.gov/mddettin\">Michael Dettinger\u003c/a>, a U.S. Geological Survey hydrologist.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What we have to do is a combination of smarter storage and better management of reservoirs, and much more efficient water use,” says Gleick. “There is no one solution to Cailfornia’s water problems.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "This year's snowpack will likely fall short of normal, but the definition of \"normal\" is changing.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>When the numbers come in for the closely watched April 1 survey of \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action\">snow in the Sierra Nevada\u003c/a>, California is likely to fall short of an average year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s a major disappointment in a winter that featured one of the \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/02/01/why-this-el-nino-is-one-for-the-books/\">strongest El Niño events on record\u003c/a>—warm ocean conditions that were widely expected to produce torrents of precipitation. It’s also a source of concern since the state has historically counted on runoff from accumulated mountain snows for about a third of its water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earlier this week, the northern Sierra snowpack briefly nudged the long-term average for April 1, while measurements from the southern Sierra were lagging badly, at just 75 percent of normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, both numbers are \u003ca href=\"http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86838\">a huge improvement\u003c/a> over last year at this time, when the Sierra Nevada range was virtually barren. But this year, almost-average isn’t going to cut it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_594396\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 561px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-594396 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/No-SnowSurvey_150401.png\" alt=\"Governor Jerry Brown looks on as last April's snow survey is conducted on barren ground along Highway 50, near Echo Summit.\" width=\"561\" height=\"381\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/No-SnowSurvey_150401.png 561w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/No-SnowSurvey_150401-400x272.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 561px) 100vw, 561px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Governor Jerry Brown looks on as last April’s snow survey is conducted on barren ground along Highway 50, near Echo Summit. \u003ccite>(Calif. Dept. of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We really needed more than average—a lot more than average,” says Peter Gleick, a hydrologist and co-founder of the Oakland-based \u003ca href=\"http://pacinst.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Average snowpack wouldn’t solve the hole we’re in from four years of dry soil moistures and low reservoirs and overpumped groundwater,” he says. “I think a fifth year of drought is now pretty inevitable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, El Niño conjured up enough rain and snow to slightly dampen Californians’ worries over water. In a survey just released by the Public Policy Institute of California, while 57 percent of respondents still consider water supply to be a “big problem,” water and drought slipped from the top spot among residents’ biggest concerns, yielding once again to jobs and the economy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Long-Term Outlook Not Encouraging\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gleick attended this week’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/22/fact-sheet-working-together-build-sustainable-water-future\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">White House Water Summit\u003c/a>, a confab designed to assess threats to future water security and seek solutions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Coinciding with that event, federal water managers issued some sobering projections for the continuing impact of California’s changing climate on key watersheds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins:\u003cbr>\nMean annual runoff is projected to increase as much as 5.4% in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers Delta by the 2050s. Moisture falling as rain instead of snow at lower elevations will increase wintertime runoff by 22% (December through March) and decrease springtime runoff by 27% (April through July).\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>And moving uphill toward Lake Tahoe, the outlook does not improve:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>Truckee River Basin:\u003cbr>\nMean annual runoff is projected to increase by from [sic] 5.7% by the 2050s. Warmer conditions are projected to transition wintertime snow into rain, increasing December–March runoff and decreasing April–July runoff. The median date of peak runoff is expected to be 19 days earlier by the end of the century.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Those increases in runoff might sound like a good thing. More water is more water, right?\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We don’t just care about how much water we get, we also care about when we get it’\u003ccite>Peter Gleick, hydrologist\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“I wouldn’t bank on that,” says Gleick, citing both the uncertainty inherent in precipitation models for California and rising temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We don’t just care about how much water we get, we also care about when we get it,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More wintertime and less springtime runoff is a sign that winter storms are dropping more rain and less snow, depleting the state’s “frozen reservoir” and leaving less water during the summer growing season, when farms and cities most need it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As John Upton \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/california-snowpack-returns-fears-future-20166\">writes for Climate Central\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>The low snowpack experienced last year is expected to become more common during the decades ahead — even though storminess in the region is \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/west-likely-stormier-with-climate-change-20009\">projected to increase\u003c/a>. Last year’s was the \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action\">smallest snowpack on record\u003c/a>, caused primarily by a shortfall in large winter storms, fueling a withering drought \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/global-warming-fueled-heat-calif-drought-18719\">exacerbated by high temperatures\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Within 50 years, snowpacks as diminutive as last year’s could occur on average more than once every decade, said \u003ca href=\"https://profile.usgs.gov/mddettin\">Michael Dettinger\u003c/a>, a U.S. Geological Survey hydrologist.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What we have to do is a combination of smarter storage and better management of reservoirs, and much more efficient water use,” says Gleick. “There is no one solution to Cailfornia’s water problems.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"info": "What kind of no sabo word is Hyphenación? For us, it’s about living within a hyphenation. Like being a third-gen Mexican-American from the Texas border now living that Bay Area Chicano life. Like Xorje! Each week we bring together a couple of hyphenated Latinos to talk all about personal life choices: family, careers, relationships, belonging … everything is on the table. ",
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"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 4pm-4:30pm, MON-WED 6:30pm-7pm",
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"mindshift": {
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"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
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"order": 12
},
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5",
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"tagline": "Deeply-reported investigative journalism",
"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
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"on-the-media": {
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"info": "Our weekly podcast explores how the media 'sausage' is made, casts an incisive eye on fluctuations in the marketplace of ideas, and examines threats to the freedom of information and expression in America and abroad. For one hour a week, the show tries to lift the veil from the process of \"making media,\" especially news media, because it's through that lens that we see the world and the world sees us",
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},
"pbs-newshour": {
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},
"perspectives": {
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"order": 14
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"info": "The economy explained. Imagine you could call up a friend and say, Meet me at the bar and tell me what's going on with the economy. Now imagine that's actually a fun evening.",
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"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/planetmoney.jpg",
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"politicalbreakdown": {
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"title": "Political Breakdown",
"tagline": "Politics from a personal perspective",
"info": "Political Breakdown is a new series that explores the political intersection of California and the nation. Each week hosts Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos are joined with a new special guest to unpack politics -- with personality — and offer an insider’s glimpse at how politics happens.",
"airtime": "THU 6:30pm-7pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Political-Breakdown-2024-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"order": 5
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"possible": {
"id": "possible",
"title": "Possible",
"info": "Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.",
"airtime": "SUN 2pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.possible.fm/",
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"source": "Possible"
},
"link": "/radio/program/possible",
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"spotify": "https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"
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},
"pri-the-world": {
"id": "pri-the-world",
"title": "PRI's The World: Latest Edition",
"info": "Each weekday, host Marco Werman and his team of producers bring you the world's most interesting stories in an hour of radio that reminds us just how small our planet really is.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 2pm-3pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-World-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
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},
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},
"radiolab": {
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