What This Winter’s ‘Super El Niño’ Could Mean for California’s Ski Season

Here are the morning’s top stories on Thursday, October 15, 2026

• The Trump administration this week is threatening to take legal action against California unless election officials verify the citizenship of some people on the state’s voter rolls.
• With the potential for heavy rain this El Niño winter, a state audit warns that dozens of California dams pose a risk to public safety.
• Report after report says a Super El Niño could slam the west coast with rain and snow. So what can skiers expect on the slopes? To help answer that question, we’re joined by KQED outdoor reporter Sarah Wright, who’s been talking with experts and joins us now.

The federal Department of Justice sent letters to California’s Secretary of State Shirley Weber and the Los Angeles Registrar of Voters Dean Logan, asserting there are ineligible voters on California’s voter rolls.

The U.S. DOJ gave officials two days to confirm the voters’ citizenship status, ramping up its pressure on the state to root out alleged voter fraud ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm election.

The letters were accompanied by a password-protected thumb drive that the DOJ said contained the names of voters who the federal government “believes are likely noncitizens.”

“For individuals whom you cannot independently confirm citizenship status, we request that you immediately instruct the appropriate elections officials to segregate — not cancel — those individuals’ vote-by-mail ballots until their citizenship status can be determined,” acting U.S. Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter wrote in the letters to Weber and Logan.

State Attorney General Rob Bonta denounced Trump for stoking concerns about voter fraud, which he says are unfounded.

“During an election, he now comes forward and purports to suggest that there are ineligible voters on the rolls in California,” said Bonta. “And so, you know, we have to understand who the messenger is, what they’ve said in the past, they have zero credibility.”

Bonta denounced the Trump administration for taking such a step while voters across the state are already filling out vote-by-mail ballots. Most California counties already began mailing out ballots on October 5th.

With an El Niño winter threatening heavy rain, the State Auditor warns that California’s aging dams “continue to pose a risk to public safety,” especially in the Bay Area, San Diego, and Los Angeles areas.

Rachel Becker is a reporter with our California Newsroom partner CalMatters.

She says lawmakers gave the state the power to penalize dam owners that violate safety requirements following the Oroville spillway failure in 2017.

“The state’s Department of Water Resources told the auditor, they haven’t been able to adequately staff an enforcement branch and aren’t cofnident they actually have the resources to afford to defend their actions in a hearing. And when it comes down to it, these dam repairs are so expensive. And state law never required dam owners to create a fund or maintain some sort of bond or assurance that they can do these safety repairs or eventually decommission a dam.”

While dam disasters are extremely rare, if they do happen, it can be catastrophic.

The audit found that if the state’s riskiest dams fail they could collectively endanger a million and a half people and cause more than $260 billion dollars in damage.

This interview was edited for length and clarity.

BOLANOS: Report after report says a Super El Niño could slam the west coast with rain and snow. So what can skiers expect on the slopes? To help answer that question, we’re joined by KQED outdoor reporter Sarah Wright, who’s been talking with experts and joins us now. So Sarah, why is it so hard to tell what to expect this ski season?

WRIGHT: So the short answer is we just don’t have enough data. I spoke with Brian Allegretto. He is a forecaster with OpenSnow, which gives predictions for the Sierra Nevada area. He told me that since 1970, there have only been four winters that are considered strong El Niño’s. Just half of those produced above average snowfall. Some might remember the 1982-1983 season, which had a 170% of average snowfall. But the other half produced below average snow fall, like the disappointing 2015-2016 season. Here’s Allegretto to explain.

ALLEGRETTO: The question will be what’s happening around the rest of the globe? What’s happening in the North Pacific, what’s happening in Eastern US in December, January and February? We will have no idea until we get there.

BOLANOS: Okay, so what is the El Niño forecast saying today?

WRIGHT: So, technically we still don’t even know if it’s going to be a Super El Niño, but the water in the Pacific Ocean right now is warm. It’s about 2.2 degrees above average, and it’s getting warmer. Brian addressed this when I chatted with him.

ALLEGRETTO: But what is that going to do when you have no historical records to point to anything? It’s hard to know. But in theory, it should enhance the southern jet stream and we should see a pretty active pattern into California and the southwest.

WRIGHT: What’s really impossible to know, Allegretto said, is whether the El Niño pattern will actually dominate the forecast, or if other weather patterns will move in to drown out its effects.

BOLANOS: So, what does this all mean for ski season this winter?

WRIGHT: So good news, it just snowed in the Sierra on Monday, but let’s not get too excited. The reality is, snowfall should start to pick up in November. It might dip a bit in December and then hopefully we’ll see big numbers in January and February. Allegretto called those months the make-or-break months.

ALLEGRETTO: I look at this forecast going, OK, I’m cautiously optimistic. This looks like we’re probably going to have an active season, probably going have at least slightly above average snowfall. So I’m pretty excited.

WRIGHT: But in addition to the potential for more snowfall, El Niño’s are also characterized by being warm, generally. So, Allegretto warned that we could actually end up with more rain than snow, especially at low elevations. So basically, don’t get too sucked into the snow hype this early, but signs are good for a big season ahead.

BOLANOS: Okay, so people who are looking forward to this, when will ski resorts be open?

WRIGHT: So most in Tahoe are slated for a late November opening or even early December. So now is the time to figure out your ski season plans. But be patient. Don’t expect amazing conditions when you get out there for the first month or even for the two months of the season.

BOLANOS: Alrighty, that was KQED Outdoor Reporter Sarah Wright. Sarah, thank you so much.

WRIGHT: Thank you.