Local Loyalties and Trump Opposition Collide in San Diego House Race
VISTA — California’s newest congressional battleground is taking shape in northern San Diego County, where hillsides speckled with terracotta roofs descend into canyons of chaparral — and voter opposition to President Donald Trump threatens to upend decades of local Republican dominance.
Previously a safely red seat, the new-look 48th Congressional District is rated “Lean Democrat” by the Cook Political Report — making it one of just three competitive districts left in California that will help decide control of Congress in November. Rep. Darrell Issa, the Republican incumbent, decided to retire rather than run for reelection.
A familiar dynamic has emerged in the race to succeed him: Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego City Council member, has positioned her campaign as a check on the Trump administration. Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor, has sought to ground his candidacy in local credibility to buttress the national headwinds facing the GOP.
Democrats set their sights on the 48th District after it was dramatically reshaped by Proposition 50, the new map approved by California voters last year as part of a national redistricting battle. The district was transformed from a seat that Trump won by 15.3% to one in which former Vice President Kamala Harris would have won by 3.4%.
In Vista, where nearly half of residents are Latino, Desmond’s office recently sponsored the city’s Fiestas Patrias, a celebration of Mexican independence and Latino heritage. Local dance troupes performed traditional Mexican baile folklórico in the afternoon sun as their friends and family members cheered from tables shaded underneath large tents.
As a procession of costumed dancers performing a danza de los diablos marched past, longtime Vista resident Yolanda Kenniston Alvarez praised Desmond for his constituent services.
She applauded Desmond’s office for sponsoring community gatherings and giving away household essentials such as baby formula to families in this working-class city.
“Next week, they’re going to give out some car seats — that’s so good,” said Alvarez, who said she has voted for both Democrats and Republicans but is undecided in this race for Congress.
Still, reminders of Trump’s first-term agenda loomed over the festivities. An organizer of Vista’s Fiestas Patrias said the event was nearly canceled last year over fears of an immigration enforcement operation.
Alvarez said she was recently stopped on the street and questioned by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.
“People are scared — they’re scared they’re going to go back, they’re scared to even go to work, they’re scared to have their kids go to school,” she said. “It’s getting worse, and a lot of people are going against Trump.”
Desmond’s firewall of local loyalty will be tested in an election that is shaping up to be a referendum on Trump, said Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at UC San Diego.
“There are lots and lots of voters who strongly support Donald Trump in these areas,” Kousser said. “But the average voter in this area of San Diego is leaning towards the Democrats and not happy with the direction that Donald Trump has taken the country.”
Trump took center stage in the race this week when he suggested letting Iran “take out San Diego” to prove the necessity of dismantling the country’s nuclear weapons capabilities. In response, Desmond wrote on social media, “I vehemently disagree with President Trump’s comments … no American city is expendable, and no American family should ever be treated as collateral damage.”
Von Wilpert has focused her campaign attacks on the local impacts of the Iran war — particularly the rising cost of gas in a region where drivers regularly endure long commutes.
“The choice is a fighter like me, who wants to stand up and lower costs to make Congress an equal branch of government again — or you could vote for another rubber stamp for the Donald Trump White House, which is my opponent,” Von Wilpert told KQED.
The newly drawn 48th District sprawls across vast stretches of Southern California, including areas of Riverside County around Temecula and the reliably Democratic city of Palm Springs.
But the election is expected to swing on voters in the San Diego County cities of Escondido, San Marcos, Oceanside and Vista — an area known locally as North County. So far, both campaigns have focused their broadcast television ad buys primarily on San Diego stations, with a pro-Von Wilpert super PAC airing some ads in the Los Angeles market (which covers much of Riverside).
Desmond’s campaign views the geography as a key advantage: While Von Wilpert lives outside the district in the city of San Diego, Desmond served as mayor of San Marcos from 2006 to 2018 and is finishing his second term as county supervisor. Nearly half of the voters in the 48th District are already represented by Desmond on the Board of Supervisors, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan California Target Book.
Even as the area has swung towards Democrats in presidential elections, voters in North County have elected members of both parties to the state Legislature. The mayors of Escondido, San Marcos and Vista, though elected in nonpartisan races, are all Republicans.
“Politically, I’d say we’re very purple; we’re not strongly leaning in either direction,” said Vista Mayor John Franklin, who has endorsed Desmond. “We think of him as a common-sense leader — he has been very responsive, he’s focused on affordability issues, particularly fighting tax increases.”
Desmond declined an interview request for this story. During the campaign, he has emphasized pieces of his platform with bipartisan support — such as assisting first-time homebuyers and banning members of Congress from trading stocks.
“I want to make sure that we can have the young families be able to afford a house and bring the cost of energy down,” Desmond told NBC 7 in San Diego. “If we can lower the cost of energy, we lower the cost of everything.”
But Desmond has struggled to distance himself from the most unpopular parts of Trump’s agenda. The president announced his support of Desmond ahead of the June primary, but Trump doesn’t appear on the campaign’s list of endorsements.
Federal immigration enforcement has emerged as another local flashpoint in the race.
Oceanside, Vista and Escondido all rank among the top 40 cities in California for ICE arrest rates since Trump took office last year, according to an analysis by the San Francisco Chronicle.
The immigration crackdown has placed newfound scrutiny on the relationship between local governments and ICE.
In Escondido, a handful of protesters lined the street outside a Home Depot, waving signs reading “ICE OUT” to passing cars. The group began gathering every week after a series of sweeps in Home Depot parking lots across the region. They are demanding that the city of Escondido end a contract with ICE that allows federal immigration agents to train at a local firing range.
The San Diego County Board of Supervisors voted last month to end similar contracts with ICE and Customs and Border Protection.
Desmond voted in opposition, but acknowledged that “ICE has overreached and overstepped.”
Supreshma Riya, a freshman at California State University, San Marcos, said opposition to Trump’s immigration enforcement is the top issue motivating her vote. The San Diego native stopped by a voter registration drive on campus as she prepared to cast a ballot for the first time in November.
“I think that the way that he’s handling the situation is inhumane,” Riya said. “I think people should be given fair chances and opportunities to make a difference in our country.”
Opposition to the Biden administration’s border policy energized Republicans in 2024. But over time, Trump’s aggressive approach to immigration enforcement has chipped away at GOP support in the San Diego area, Kousser said.
North County is the last domino left standing in the region for the GOP. For decades, the area was represented in Congress by conservative stalwarts such as Duke Cunningham, Duncan Hunter and Issa. But a victory by Von Wilpert would give Democrats complete control of the county’s congressional delegation.
“This race could bring the culmination of the political transition of San Diego,” Kousser said.