California Billionaire Tax Has Strong Support of Democratic Voters, New Poll Shows
California Democrats are strongly backing a proposal to levy a one-time tax on billionaires and opposing a measure that would require voters to present ID at the ballot box, according to a new UC Berkeley poll.
Among the overall likely November electorate, the tax measure labeled Proposition 40 holds a narrow lead, 48% to 41%, the survey from the Institute of Governmental Studies found. Opinions about the proposed 5% tax on billionaires’ overall wealth — which would be used to backfill cuts to federal healthcare funding — were highly partisan: 70% of Democrats say they’ll back it, with 80% of Republicans opposed.
Voters with no party preference were more evenly split, with 50% saying they’ll vote yes and 39% saying they’ll vote no. Overall, 11% of likely voters told IGS pollsters they are still undecided.
Though the poll suggests strong support for the billionaire tax among Democratic voters, the measure has split the party’s political establishment. It narrowly won the endorsement of the California Democratic Party and is backed by the healthcare workers union SEIU-UHW West, but it is opposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom and some labor unions, in addition to a group of billionaires.
IGS co-director Eric Schickler said the survey indicates that Proposition 40’s backers will need to rely on more liberal voters to succeed in passing the tax.
“These results suggest that the billionaires tax initiative is shaping up to be a closely fought contest, with the key question being whether opponents can make big enough inroads among the state’s traditionally Democratic-leaning voters,” Schickler said in a statement.
Schickler said voter opinions on Proposition 39, a voter ID measure put on the ballot by state Republicans, are even more partisan and ideological, with 80% of Democrats opposed and 93% of Republicans in favor.
The measure is trailing in the poll, with 51% of likely voters saying they will vote against it and 42% in support.
Proposition 39 would require voters to show a government-issued ID if they vote in person, or write the last four digits of an ID on a mail-in ballot.
Schickler said opponents of that initiative “have already started to solidify making it a more typical Democratic-Republican fight, in which Democrats in California generally hold the advantage.”
Given Democrats’ strong registration advantage in California, it may be difficult for Republicans to close that gap: Just 7% of likely voters told IGS they don’t yet know how they will vote on the voter ID measure.
The poll also asked likely voters about two other ballot measures, authored by a group of billionaires who oppose the wealth tax, that are aimed at nullifying the billionaire tax if it passes.
Proposition 41 would prohibit new taxes enacted after Jan. 1 of this year — when Proposition 40 would retroactively take effect; Proposition 42 would prohibit both wealth taxes like Proposition 40 and any retroactive taxes.
Both measures were written so they would supersede Proposition 40 if they receive more votes than the billionaire wealth tax.
IGS found likely voters had no clear consensus around the measures, and that many had never heard of them. That’s in contrast to the proposed billionaire tax, which more than 70% of likely voters are aware of despite the fact that the campaigns for and against it have not yet kicked off in earnest.
The survey was conducted online in English and Spanish from Aug. 3 to Aug. 9 among 4,207 registered voters; a sample of 2,310 were considered likely voters in the November general election.