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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24540\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/droughtpic1.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-24540 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/droughtpic1.jpg\" alt=\"A car sits in dried and cracked earth of what was the bottom of the Almaden Reservoir on January 28, 2014 in San Jose, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\" width=\"640\" height=\"430\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A car sits in dried and cracked earth of what was the bottom of the Almaden Reservoir south of San Jose on Jan. 28. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>California’s current drought is pretty exceptional — like the driest in about a millennium — according to an article published today in the journal \u003cem>Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/em> by scientists with the University of Minnesota and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But how could they know that? There weren’t a lot of rain gauges in California in 800 A.D. — at least, not the plastic kind.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So authors Daniel Griffin and Kevin Anchukaitis looked to tree-ring samples from California blue oaks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24564\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/ring-core-ejon_ranch_DSC3975-243x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-24564\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/ring-core-ejon_ranch_DSC3975-243x162.jpg\" alt=\"Pencil-like tree-ring cores are collected non-destructively using a Swedish increment borer in May, 2014. (Daniel Griffin/University of Minnesota)\" width=\"320\" height=\"213\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Pencil-like tree-ring cores are collected non-destructively using a Swedish increment borer in May, 2014. (Daniel Griffin/University of Minnesota)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“California’s old blue oaks are as close to nature’s rain gauges as we get,” said Griffin, a NOAA Climate and Global Change Fellow with Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. “They thrive in some of California’s driest environments.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers collected their own blue oak tree-ring samples from south and central California, giving them a pretty good idea of yearly precipitation in the area back to 1293. They then augmented their samples with data from the \u003ca href=\"http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.LDEO/.TRL/.NADA2004/.pdsi-atlas.html\">North American Drought Atlas\u003c/a> and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Palmer Drought Severity Index.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The result: The study estimates that in the past 1,200 years, there have been 66 dry periods lasting three-to-nine years and 37 more-severe, three-year droughts. But not one of them has been as extreme as the one beginning in 2012, despite some years in the past seeing similarly low precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not only lack of rain that makes a drought, though. \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/10/14/high-temps-intensified-california-drought/\">Record-high temperatures\u003c/a> added to California’s strife to make this dry spell the worst in more than 1,000 years, according to the study. The researchers estimate high temperatures have intensified the drought by about 36 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley geology professor and researcher Lynn Ingram said the study’s findings appear solid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The tree-ring records provide the highest resolution as they have annual growth layers,” she said, adding the study provides a “cautionary lesson” about how human-caused warming “may already be impacting climate and water in California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watch the California drought progress from the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2014 below. The NOAA U.S. Drought Monitor released the latest outlook today, up-to-date as of Dec. 2. More than half the state is now in “exceptional drought,” defined as “exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells creating water emergencies.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://u.s.kqed.net/2014/12/04/DroughtMapOverTimeLargerupdateDecember.gif\" width=\"640\" height=\"710\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24592\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/drought-legend-1024x396.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-24592 size-large\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/drought-legend-1024x396.jpg\" alt=\"Click on the legend for a description of each drought category.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"396\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click on the legend for a description of each drought category.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This animation shows California’s drought through its development, from January, 2011 through early December 2014, as expressed by NOAA’s U.S. Drought Monitor.\u003c/em> (Olivia Hubert-Allen/KQED)\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24540\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/droughtpic1.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-24540 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/droughtpic1.jpg\" alt=\"A car sits in dried and cracked earth of what was the bottom of the Almaden Reservoir on January 28, 2014 in San Jose, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\" width=\"640\" height=\"430\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A car sits in dried and cracked earth of what was the bottom of the Almaden Reservoir south of San Jose on Jan. 28. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>California’s current drought is pretty exceptional — like the driest in about a millennium — according to an article published today in the journal \u003cem>Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/em> by scientists with the University of Minnesota and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But how could they know that? There weren’t a lot of rain gauges in California in 800 A.D. — at least, not the plastic kind.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So authors Daniel Griffin and Kevin Anchukaitis looked to tree-ring samples from California blue oaks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24564\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/ring-core-ejon_ranch_DSC3975-243x162.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-24564\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/ring-core-ejon_ranch_DSC3975-243x162.jpg\" alt=\"Pencil-like tree-ring cores are collected non-destructively using a Swedish increment borer in May, 2014. (Daniel Griffin/University of Minnesota)\" width=\"320\" height=\"213\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Pencil-like tree-ring cores are collected non-destructively using a Swedish increment borer in May, 2014. (Daniel Griffin/University of Minnesota)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“California’s old blue oaks are as close to nature’s rain gauges as we get,” said Griffin, a NOAA Climate and Global Change Fellow with Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. “They thrive in some of California’s driest environments.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers collected their own blue oak tree-ring samples from south and central California, giving them a pretty good idea of yearly precipitation in the area back to 1293. They then augmented their samples with data from the \u003ca href=\"http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.LDEO/.TRL/.NADA2004/.pdsi-atlas.html\">North American Drought Atlas\u003c/a> and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Palmer Drought Severity Index.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The result: The study estimates that in the past 1,200 years, there have been 66 dry periods lasting three-to-nine years and 37 more-severe, three-year droughts. But not one of them has been as extreme as the one beginning in 2012, despite some years in the past seeing similarly low precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not only lack of rain that makes a drought, though. \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/10/14/high-temps-intensified-california-drought/\">Record-high temperatures\u003c/a> added to California’s strife to make this dry spell the worst in more than 1,000 years, according to the study. The researchers estimate high temperatures have intensified the drought by about 36 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley geology professor and researcher Lynn Ingram said the study’s findings appear solid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The tree-ring records provide the highest resolution as they have annual growth layers,” she said, adding the study provides a “cautionary lesson” about how human-caused warming “may already be impacting climate and water in California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watch the California drought progress from the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2014 below. The NOAA U.S. Drought Monitor released the latest outlook today, up-to-date as of Dec. 2. More than half the state is now in “exceptional drought,” defined as “exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells creating water emergencies.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://u.s.kqed.net/2014/12/04/DroughtMapOverTimeLargerupdateDecember.gif\" width=\"640\" height=\"710\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24592\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/drought-legend-1024x396.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-24592 size-large\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/drought-legend-1024x396.jpg\" alt=\"Click on the legend for a description of each drought category.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"396\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click on the legend for a description of each drought category.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This animation shows California’s drought through its development, from January, 2011 through early December 2014, as expressed by NOAA’s U.S. Drought Monitor.\u003c/em> (Olivia Hubert-Allen/KQED)\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "New Residential Water Use Numbers Indicate Conservation Backslide",
"headTitle": "New Residential Water Use Numbers Indicate Conservation Backslide | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24447\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 850px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/waterlevel.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/waterlevel.jpg\" alt=\"Receding water levels can be seen around the San Gabriel Reservoir, or San Gabriel Dam, on July 29. The reservoir provides flood control, groundwater recharge flows and hydroelectricity for the heavily populated San Gabriel Valley in the Greater Los Angeles metropolitan area. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images)\" width=\"850\" height=\"537\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24447\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Receding water levels can be seen around the San Gabriel Reservoir, or San Gabriel Dam, on July 29. The reservoir provides flood control, groundwater recharge flows and hydroelectricity for the heavily populated San Gabriel Valley in the Greater Los Angeles metropolitan area. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The latest year-over-year \u003ca href=\"http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/conservation_reporting_info.shtml\">residential water use numbers\u003c/a> are out, offering a glimpse at how much of the wet stuff larger cities throughout California are using and how much they’re conserving.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The broad view for October’s water conservation efforts isn’t good, but the gloomy news comes with warnings about comparing data 1) between cities that may have very different water needs and 2) across time when temperature could be factor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That said, October represents a significant backslide in water conservation statewide. Water use this October was down 6.7 percent compared to the same time last year. Sounds good, but that’s also a 3.6 percent decrease in water savings compared to \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/11/04/new-numbers-highlight-contrasts-in-california-water-use/\">September\u003c/a>, 2014, which had a statewide conservation rate of 10.3 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re using less water, but they’re using less less water than they did last month,” State Water Board Chair Felicia Marcus said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Marcus said the gallons per capita, per day average is a new measurement, and officials are still grappling with exactly what it means.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This set of reports has raised more questions than answers for us,” Marcus said, but she added that it could be useful in transferring a best practice from a city with conservation success to another similar community struggling to reduce usage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State and local water officials worry the drive to conserve will falter as winter storms start to hit the state. But it’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_26932356/california-drought-not-likely-end-this-winter-experts\">unlikely\u003c/a> that California will get enough rain this season to break the severe drought, now entering its fourth year.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘If folks don’t take action, we probably will have to.’\u003ccite>Felicia Marcus\u003cbr>State Water Board Chair\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“As we’ve seen over time, conservation wanes a bit when you get into fall and winter months,” said Lisa Lien-Mager, spokeswoman for the Association of California Water Agencies. “Even though we may be in a drought, people aren’t thinking about it as much as they did in the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lien-Mager noted that 2014 is on pace to be a record-setting warm year for California, which factors into water usage and \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/10/14/high-temps-intensified-california-drought/\">the drought\u003c/a>. She said long-term efforts, like water districts offering \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/audio/take-out-your-lawn-and-get-paid-for-it/\">cash rewards to residents who replace lawns\u003c/a> with drought-friendlier landscaping, have yet to impact usage, but they will.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They may not show the results immediately, but those things are happening, we know that,” she said. “Those programs are going through the roof all around the state. We have to show some patience.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report does indicate which larger cities and regions are continuing to conserve and which are falling off. The Bay Area “gets a gold star,” Marcus said, noting that San Francisco uses the fewest gallons per capita, per day of any major city in the state. San Franciscans used an average of 45 gallons per person each day in October, with an 8.73 percent reduction this year compared to the same time last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even bigger users in the Bay Area, like the city of Hillsborough down the peninsula, are maintaining conservation. The city guzzles 228 gallons per person, per day, but it has reduced usage by 21 percent, compared to last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Not so in parts of Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It really is Southern California bringing down the curve,” Marcus said. “In Northern California people have maintained their percentage year-over-year rates, and in Southern California it seemed to drop significantly with some communities actually using more water and others who had been saving 7 or 8 percent now saving 2 percent. And we’re not entirely sure why that is.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State regulators are not currently considering harsher restrictions or fines for people who fail to conserve, Marcus said. Last summer, California became the first state in the country to institute statewide water conservation regulations, which she said are generally better handled by local water districts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We took the unusual step of doing what were relatively modest regulations to help kick [local] agencies into gear because it felt like they kept thinking it was just going to rain,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For now, regulators are opting for positive reinforcement and friendly reminders. The State Water Board is planning a Southern California water conservation workshop for Dec. 17 in the Los Angeles area. But that could change if next month’s conservation rate continues to fall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It depends on what people do about these numbers,” Marcus said. “If it rains a lot, it’s hard to keep the messaging up, and it could go either way. If folks don’t take action, we probably will have to.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24447\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 850px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/waterlevel.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/12/waterlevel.jpg\" alt=\"Receding water levels can be seen around the San Gabriel Reservoir, or San Gabriel Dam, on July 29. The reservoir provides flood control, groundwater recharge flows and hydroelectricity for the heavily populated San Gabriel Valley in the Greater Los Angeles metropolitan area. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images)\" width=\"850\" height=\"537\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24447\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Receding water levels can be seen around the San Gabriel Reservoir, or San Gabriel Dam, on July 29. The reservoir provides flood control, groundwater recharge flows and hydroelectricity for the heavily populated San Gabriel Valley in the Greater Los Angeles metropolitan area. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The latest year-over-year \u003ca href=\"http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/conservation_reporting_info.shtml\">residential water use numbers\u003c/a> are out, offering a glimpse at how much of the wet stuff larger cities throughout California are using and how much they’re conserving.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The broad view for October’s water conservation efforts isn’t good, but the gloomy news comes with warnings about comparing data 1) between cities that may have very different water needs and 2) across time when temperature could be factor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That said, October represents a significant backslide in water conservation statewide. Water use this October was down 6.7 percent compared to the same time last year. Sounds good, but that’s also a 3.6 percent decrease in water savings compared to \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/11/04/new-numbers-highlight-contrasts-in-california-water-use/\">September\u003c/a>, 2014, which had a statewide conservation rate of 10.3 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re using less water, but they’re using less less water than they did last month,” State Water Board Chair Felicia Marcus said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Marcus said the gallons per capita, per day average is a new measurement, and officials are still grappling with exactly what it means.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This set of reports has raised more questions than answers for us,” Marcus said, but she added that it could be useful in transferring a best practice from a city with conservation success to another similar community struggling to reduce usage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State and local water officials worry the drive to conserve will falter as winter storms start to hit the state. But it’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_26932356/california-drought-not-likely-end-this-winter-experts\">unlikely\u003c/a> that California will get enough rain this season to break the severe drought, now entering its fourth year.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘If folks don’t take action, we probably will have to.’\u003ccite>Felicia Marcus\u003cbr>State Water Board Chair\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“As we’ve seen over time, conservation wanes a bit when you get into fall and winter months,” said Lisa Lien-Mager, spokeswoman for the Association of California Water Agencies. “Even though we may be in a drought, people aren’t thinking about it as much as they did in the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lien-Mager noted that 2014 is on pace to be a record-setting warm year for California, which factors into water usage and \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/10/14/high-temps-intensified-california-drought/\">the drought\u003c/a>. She said long-term efforts, like water districts offering \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/audio/take-out-your-lawn-and-get-paid-for-it/\">cash rewards to residents who replace lawns\u003c/a> with drought-friendlier landscaping, have yet to impact usage, but they will.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They may not show the results immediately, but those things are happening, we know that,” she said. “Those programs are going through the roof all around the state. We have to show some patience.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report does indicate which larger cities and regions are continuing to conserve and which are falling off. The Bay Area “gets a gold star,” Marcus said, noting that San Francisco uses the fewest gallons per capita, per day of any major city in the state. San Franciscans used an average of 45 gallons per person each day in October, with an 8.73 percent reduction this year compared to the same time last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even bigger users in the Bay Area, like the city of Hillsborough down the peninsula, are maintaining conservation. The city guzzles 228 gallons per person, per day, but it has reduced usage by 21 percent, compared to last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Not so in parts of Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It really is Southern California bringing down the curve,” Marcus said. “In Northern California people have maintained their percentage year-over-year rates, and in Southern California it seemed to drop significantly with some communities actually using more water and others who had been saving 7 or 8 percent now saving 2 percent. And we’re not entirely sure why that is.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State regulators are not currently considering harsher restrictions or fines for people who fail to conserve, Marcus said. Last summer, California became the first state in the country to institute statewide water conservation regulations, which she said are generally better handled by local water districts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We took the unusual step of doing what were relatively modest regulations to help kick [local] agencies into gear because it felt like they kept thinking it was just going to rain,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For now, regulators are opting for positive reinforcement and friendly reminders. The State Water Board is planning a Southern California water conservation workshop for Dec. 17 in the Los Angeles area. But that could change if next month’s conservation rate continues to fall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It depends on what people do about these numbers,” Marcus said. “If it rains a lot, it’s hard to keep the messaging up, and it could go either way. If folks don’t take action, we probably will have to.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "This Week's Rain Unlikely to Dent Drought",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24028\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/IMG_5282.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24028\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/IMG_5282.jpg\" alt=\"Rain falls in Vallejo in October. (Craig Miller/KQED)\" width=\"640\" height=\"1080\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An October downpour in Vallejo. Despite such cloudbursts, early storms like this one failed to deliver much rain to most of the Bay Area. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Rain storms expected to blow through the Bay Area this week will likely have little impact on the statewide drought, now entering its fourth year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service is \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDMTR&wfo=MTR\">forecasting\u003c/a> only about a half-inch of precipitation to fall in most locations from three separate storm systems beginning mid-week and concluding sometime on Saturday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All three storms look to be on the weak side, said NWS forecaster Roger Gaas, with the possible exception of the last storm arriving on Friday — if it swings far enough south to douse the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But we can’t complain when we get three wet systems in a row, particularly within a few days,” says Gass.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some of the region’s water scarcity can be traced to a persistent \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1967\">high pressure ridge\u003c/a> that diverts Pacific storms to the north. Gass says the ridge has begun to shift eastward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This has allowed the storm systems to actually have an entrance into central California and bring us rainfall.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But experts are cautioning against too much optimism following just a little rain that, taking the long view, will have such scant impact on the \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_26932356/california-drought-not-likely-end-this-winter-experts\">state’s water shortage\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Thursday it’ll rain, and people will say, ‘Oh, I’m very excited,’ and Saturday it’ll rain, and ‘Oh, drought’s over.’ Not even close,” says Jeffrey Mount, a senior fellow with Public Policy Institute of California focused on water policy and management. “This has been three consecutive years of extreme dryness, and that extreme dryness translates to much lower groundwater levels, and very dry soils. It’s going to take a lot of rain to break this drought.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How much? Current estimates from the state Department of Water Resources say the state needs about 1.5 times the rainfall of an average year to break the drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, even an average year would revive \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/audio/parched-california-wildlife-suffers-in-drought/\">wetlands that support migrating wildlife\u003c/a>, boost river flows that are currently stressing aquatic life and begin to refill aquifers and reservoirs depleted over the dry years, Mount says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Mount sees it, the difference between a wet and a dry year in California is a razor’s edge, or about a week’s worth of storms scattered over the first two months of the year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s usually in that period between Christmas and mid-February — five to seven of those days — that decide whether we have a wet year or not,” Mount says. “And if we don’t get five to seven days worth of heavy rain, we have a dry year. We cut it that fine.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s the time period that the West Coast storms can be carried by \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/atmospheric-river-may-help-put-a-dent-in-california-drought-17039\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a>, which tend to dump a lot of moisture. But those storms, the kind that can turn a drought year into an above-average one for precipitation, don’t always come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we don’t get any, or just get a few weak ones, we tend to be dry,” Mount explained in an email. “Indeed, 1997 and 1986 were major flood years that would have been labeled below average to dry if those prolonged atmospheric rivers (lasting days) had not occurred.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So it’s much too early to tell whether the 2014-15 water year will be the fourth in a historic drought or the wet year that begins to turn things around. Long-term forecasts, which aren’t considered reliable, have begun to indicate more precipitation this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s at least a ray of hope,” says Mount, “and when it comes to rainfall, hope is our strategy.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24028\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/IMG_5282.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24028\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/IMG_5282.jpg\" alt=\"Rain falls in Vallejo in October. (Craig Miller/KQED)\" width=\"640\" height=\"1080\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An October downpour in Vallejo. Despite such cloudbursts, early storms like this one failed to deliver much rain to most of the Bay Area. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Rain storms expected to blow through the Bay Area this week will likely have little impact on the statewide drought, now entering its fourth year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service is \u003ca href=\"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDMTR&wfo=MTR\">forecasting\u003c/a> only about a half-inch of precipitation to fall in most locations from three separate storm systems beginning mid-week and concluding sometime on Saturday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All three storms look to be on the weak side, said NWS forecaster Roger Gaas, with the possible exception of the last storm arriving on Friday — if it swings far enough south to douse the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But we can’t complain when we get three wet systems in a row, particularly within a few days,” says Gass.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some of the region’s water scarcity can be traced to a persistent \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1967\">high pressure ridge\u003c/a> that diverts Pacific storms to the north. Gass says the ridge has begun to shift eastward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This has allowed the storm systems to actually have an entrance into central California and bring us rainfall.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But experts are cautioning against too much optimism following just a little rain that, taking the long view, will have such scant impact on the \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_26932356/california-drought-not-likely-end-this-winter-experts\">state’s water shortage\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Thursday it’ll rain, and people will say, ‘Oh, I’m very excited,’ and Saturday it’ll rain, and ‘Oh, drought’s over.’ Not even close,” says Jeffrey Mount, a senior fellow with Public Policy Institute of California focused on water policy and management. “This has been three consecutive years of extreme dryness, and that extreme dryness translates to much lower groundwater levels, and very dry soils. It’s going to take a lot of rain to break this drought.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How much? Current estimates from the state Department of Water Resources say the state needs about 1.5 times the rainfall of an average year to break the drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, even an average year would revive \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/audio/parched-california-wildlife-suffers-in-drought/\">wetlands that support migrating wildlife\u003c/a>, boost river flows that are currently stressing aquatic life and begin to refill aquifers and reservoirs depleted over the dry years, Mount says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Mount sees it, the difference between a wet and a dry year in California is a razor’s edge, or about a week’s worth of storms scattered over the first two months of the year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s usually in that period between Christmas and mid-February — five to seven of those days — that decide whether we have a wet year or not,” Mount says. “And if we don’t get five to seven days worth of heavy rain, we have a dry year. We cut it that fine.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s the time period that the West Coast storms can be carried by \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/atmospheric-river-may-help-put-a-dent-in-california-drought-17039\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a>, which tend to dump a lot of moisture. But those storms, the kind that can turn a drought year into an above-average one for precipitation, don’t always come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we don’t get any, or just get a few weak ones, we tend to be dry,” Mount explained in an email. “Indeed, 1997 and 1986 were major flood years that would have been labeled below average to dry if those prolonged atmospheric rivers (lasting days) had not occurred.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So it’s much too early to tell whether the 2014-15 water year will be the fourth in a historic drought or the wet year that begins to turn things around. Long-term forecasts, which aren’t considered reliable, have begun to indicate more precipitation this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s at least a ray of hope,” says Mount, “and when it comes to rainfall, hope is our strategy.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "New Numbers Highlight Contrasts in California Water Use",
"headTitle": "New Numbers Highlight Contrasts in California Water Use | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23419\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1792px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/iStock_000022187403_Medium.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-23419\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/iStock_000022187403_Medium.jpg\" alt=\"Water officials say people often forget to turn off lawn sprinklers when it starts raining. (iStock/Getty Images)\" width=\"1792\" height=\"1071\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Water officials say people often forget to turn off lawn sprinklers when it starts raining. (iStock/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>New statewide numbers will help reveal where California’s biggest water savings are — and where they aren’t.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The State Water Resources Control Board offered up the latest urban conservation numbers for cities around the state, which reveal water savings have plateaued after consistent gains through the summer months. According to the Board’s monthly survey of water agencies, consumers statewide averaged water savings of 10.3 percent in September, compared to a year earlier. That represents some slippage from the 11.6 percent savings logged in August.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘The drought’s not over just because it rained.’\u003ccite>— Felicia Marcus, State Water Board\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Regulators hope to gain more insight from new monthly reports that break down \u003ca title=\"SWB - GPCD\" href=\"http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/conservation_reporting_info.shtml\">water use on a per capita basis\u003c/a>, i.e. how much water each of us is using on a daily basis, on average, in various parts of the state. The numbers reflect residential water use, indoors and out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In September, the first month for which the gallons-per-capita-per-day, or GPCD, figures are available, the Bay Area is near the low end of the scale, averaging 85.2 for the region. Daly City, Hayward hovered in the stingy 60-GPCD range. Near the upper end were such diverse places as Bakersfield (277.5), and Beverly Hills (285.6).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Officials are clearly jittery, however, about putting these comparative numbers out there, and they caution that making direct comparisons can be misleading. Hotter and more affluent areas with large, landscaped residential properties tend to show the biggest consumption per capita. But the figures are subject to lots of other variables, all of which are \u003ca title=\"SWB - GPCD\" href=\"http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/conservation_reporting_info.shtml\">painstakingly highlighted\u003c/a> on the Water Board’s official website. What matters most is how these numbers change over time. Santa Cruz, with its aggressive conservation program, is shown as moving from the low 60s a year ago to less than 50 GPCD as this summer wound down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Not all districts are in compliance with the new monthly reporting requirements. Max Gomberg, a senior scientist with the Water Board, says that four months into the program, his office is starting “compliance outreach” for laggard districts. Water regulators studiously avoid using the term “enforcement.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re trying for the carrot, not the stick,” says Gomberg.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the upside, officials called out for kudos Santa Clara County, which is in the process of pulling up 1.5 million square feet of lawn as part of its voluntary incentive program.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But board chair Felicia Marcus warned that,”The drought’s not over just because it rained. I think we have to plan for the worst and hope for the best, but every drop counts.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Her staff intends to set up a statewide hotline for water-waste whistleblowers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The effort is still in the planning stages but according to staffers at the State Water Board, it will be modeled on California’s 1-800-EXHAUST program, in which drivers can report vehicles spewing clouds of pollution from their tailpipes. Many local water agencies already have such hotlines. During a discussion of how to market the new statewide number, one board member offered up “1-800-WATERHOG.” It might be hard to top that, even though it’s one digit too long.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nearly 9-in-10 urban water agencies now have “mandatory” restrictions on outdoor watering, though the definition of “mandatory” varies from place-to-place.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_23419\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1792px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/iStock_000022187403_Medium.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-23419\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/iStock_000022187403_Medium.jpg\" alt=\"Water officials say people often forget to turn off lawn sprinklers when it starts raining. (iStock/Getty Images)\" width=\"1792\" height=\"1071\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Water officials say people often forget to turn off lawn sprinklers when it starts raining. (iStock/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>New statewide numbers will help reveal where California’s biggest water savings are — and where they aren’t.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The State Water Resources Control Board offered up the latest urban conservation numbers for cities around the state, which reveal water savings have plateaued after consistent gains through the summer months. According to the Board’s monthly survey of water agencies, consumers statewide averaged water savings of 10.3 percent in September, compared to a year earlier. That represents some slippage from the 11.6 percent savings logged in August.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘The drought’s not over just because it rained.’\u003ccite>— Felicia Marcus, State Water Board\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Regulators hope to gain more insight from new monthly reports that break down \u003ca title=\"SWB - GPCD\" href=\"http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/conservation_reporting_info.shtml\">water use on a per capita basis\u003c/a>, i.e. how much water each of us is using on a daily basis, on average, in various parts of the state. The numbers reflect residential water use, indoors and out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In September, the first month for which the gallons-per-capita-per-day, or GPCD, figures are available, the Bay Area is near the low end of the scale, averaging 85.2 for the region. Daly City, Hayward hovered in the stingy 60-GPCD range. Near the upper end were such diverse places as Bakersfield (277.5), and Beverly Hills (285.6).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Officials are clearly jittery, however, about putting these comparative numbers out there, and they caution that making direct comparisons can be misleading. Hotter and more affluent areas with large, landscaped residential properties tend to show the biggest consumption per capita. But the figures are subject to lots of other variables, all of which are \u003ca title=\"SWB - GPCD\" href=\"http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/conservation_reporting_info.shtml\">painstakingly highlighted\u003c/a> on the Water Board’s official website. What matters most is how these numbers change over time. Santa Cruz, with its aggressive conservation program, is shown as moving from the low 60s a year ago to less than 50 GPCD as this summer wound down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Not all districts are in compliance with the new monthly reporting requirements. Max Gomberg, a senior scientist with the Water Board, says that four months into the program, his office is starting “compliance outreach” for laggard districts. Water regulators studiously avoid using the term “enforcement.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re trying for the carrot, not the stick,” says Gomberg.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the upside, officials called out for kudos Santa Clara County, which is in the process of pulling up 1.5 million square feet of lawn as part of its voluntary incentive program.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But board chair Felicia Marcus warned that,”The drought’s not over just because it rained. I think we have to plan for the worst and hope for the best, but every drop counts.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Her staff intends to set up a statewide hotline for water-waste whistleblowers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The effort is still in the planning stages but according to staffers at the State Water Board, it will be modeled on California’s 1-800-EXHAUST program, in which drivers can report vehicles spewing clouds of pollution from their tailpipes. Many local water agencies already have such hotlines. During a discussion of how to market the new statewide number, one board member offered up “1-800-WATERHOG.” It might be hard to top that, even though it’s one digit too long.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nearly 9-in-10 urban water agencies now have “mandatory” restrictions on outdoor watering, though the definition of “mandatory” varies from place-to-place.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "A First: Drought Tops List of Californians' Worries",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22926\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1698px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/iStock_000006541724_Medium.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22926\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/iStock_000006541724_Medium.jpg\" alt=\"(iStock/Getty Images)\" width=\"1698\" height=\"1131\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">(iStock/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The drought has moved to the top of Californians’ worry list. And that’s a first.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked to name the “most important issue” facing the state, 26 percent of respondents to a statewide survey earlier this month said “water” and “drought.” That’s a statistical tie with those who said “jobs” and “the economy” (29 percent), the first time that’s happened since 1998, when the \u003ca title=\"PPIC - main\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a> started asking the question.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s an incredible number,” says Mark Baldassare, who directs the poll. And he says he thinks it’s more than a fleeting response to the crisis of the moment.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘I think there’s a fundamental shift going on.”\u003ccite>— Mark Baldassare, PPIC\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s been the duration of this [three-year] drought and the fact that it’s affected every corner of the state, that’s made people realize that it’s not a short-term issue; it’s a long-term issue,” he says. “I think there’s a fundamental shift going on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Baldassare says the water issue had been “nowhere” on residents’ radar in most previous polls. Just 7 percent of respondents mentioned it as recently as January of this year, before creeping up to 24 percent in September.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One reason the spike surprised Baldassare was that optimism about the economy hasn’t improved that much.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not as if people feel that one problem has been resolved and they’ve replaced it with something else,” he observed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another bit of perspective: fully half of those polled say they’re following news of the drought “very closely.” Baldassare says that’s far more than are closely tracking the upcoming election.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The heightened angst over the drought and water supplies is also likely driving support for \u003ca title=\"Ballotpedia - Prop 1\" href=\"http://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_1,_Water_Bond_%282014%29\">Proposition 1\u003c/a>, the $7 billion bond measure \u003ca title=\"CWF - water bond\" href=\"http://waterforthelonghaul.com/local-impact-interest/\">to fund water projects\u003c/a> around the state. In the latest PPIC poll, 56 percent of likely voters said they were inclined to vote “yes” on the measure. Perhaps more significantly, only 32 percent said they would vote “no.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An “overwhelming majority” of 72 percent saw the state’s water supply as a “big problem.” Both coastal and inland residents were equally concerned.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a state issue, it’s a regional issue, it’s a local issue,” says Baldasare.” It’s an in-your-house and in-your backyard issue for Californians, too.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The PPIC poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points, which makes it a statistical tie between “drought, water” and “jobs, economy” in the survey. Here’s how the main question was posed and how the answers have changed in less than a year’s time:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline\">October 2014\u003c/span>\u003cbr>\n29% jobs, economy\u003cbr>\n\u003cstrong>26% water, drought\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n6% education, schools, teachers\u003cbr>\n4% crime, gangs, drugs\u003cbr>\n4% health care, health reform, Obamacare\u003cbr>\n4% immigration, illegal immigration\u003cbr>\n4% state budget, deficit, taxes\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline\">January 2014\u003c/span>\u003cbr>\n26% jobs, economy\u003cbr>\n13% education, schools, teachers\u003cbr>\n10% state budget, deficit, taxes\u003cbr>\n9% immigration, illegal immigration\u003cbr>\n\u003cstrong> 7% water, drought\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22926\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1698px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/iStock_000006541724_Medium.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22926\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/iStock_000006541724_Medium.jpg\" alt=\"(iStock/Getty Images)\" width=\"1698\" height=\"1131\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">(iStock/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The drought has moved to the top of Californians’ worry list. And that’s a first.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked to name the “most important issue” facing the state, 26 percent of respondents to a statewide survey earlier this month said “water” and “drought.” That’s a statistical tie with those who said “jobs” and “the economy” (29 percent), the first time that’s happened since 1998, when the \u003ca title=\"PPIC - main\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a> started asking the question.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s an incredible number,” says Mark Baldassare, who directs the poll. And he says he thinks it’s more than a fleeting response to the crisis of the moment.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘I think there’s a fundamental shift going on.”\u003ccite>— Mark Baldassare, PPIC\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s been the duration of this [three-year] drought and the fact that it’s affected every corner of the state, that’s made people realize that it’s not a short-term issue; it’s a long-term issue,” he says. “I think there’s a fundamental shift going on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Baldassare says the water issue had been “nowhere” on residents’ radar in most previous polls. Just 7 percent of respondents mentioned it as recently as January of this year, before creeping up to 24 percent in September.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One reason the spike surprised Baldassare was that optimism about the economy hasn’t improved that much.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not as if people feel that one problem has been resolved and they’ve replaced it with something else,” he observed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another bit of perspective: fully half of those polled say they’re following news of the drought “very closely.” Baldassare says that’s far more than are closely tracking the upcoming election.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The heightened angst over the drought and water supplies is also likely driving support for \u003ca title=\"Ballotpedia - Prop 1\" href=\"http://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_1,_Water_Bond_%282014%29\">Proposition 1\u003c/a>, the $7 billion bond measure \u003ca title=\"CWF - water bond\" href=\"http://waterforthelonghaul.com/local-impact-interest/\">to fund water projects\u003c/a> around the state. In the latest PPIC poll, 56 percent of likely voters said they were inclined to vote “yes” on the measure. Perhaps more significantly, only 32 percent said they would vote “no.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An “overwhelming majority” of 72 percent saw the state’s water supply as a “big problem.” Both coastal and inland residents were equally concerned.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a state issue, it’s a regional issue, it’s a local issue,” says Baldasare.” It’s an in-your-house and in-your backyard issue for Californians, too.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The PPIC poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points, which makes it a statistical tie between “drought, water” and “jobs, economy” in the survey. Here’s how the main question was posed and how the answers have changed in less than a year’s time:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline\">October 2014\u003c/span>\u003cbr>\n29% jobs, economy\u003cbr>\n\u003cstrong>26% water, drought\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n6% education, schools, teachers\u003cbr>\n4% crime, gangs, drugs\u003cbr>\n4% health care, health reform, Obamacare\u003cbr>\n4% immigration, illegal immigration\u003cbr>\n4% state budget, deficit, taxes\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline\">January 2014\u003c/span>\u003cbr>\n26% jobs, economy\u003cbr>\n13% education, schools, teachers\u003cbr>\n10% state budget, deficit, taxes\u003cbr>\n9% immigration, illegal immigration\u003cbr>\n\u003cstrong> 7% water, drought\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Drought-Stressed Crops May Be Better For You",
"headTitle": "Drought-Stressed Crops May Be Better For You | KQED",
"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"audio-wrap\">\n\u003ch2>Listen:\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2014/10/20141020science.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22653\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 3264px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/25-O.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/25-O.jpg\" alt=\"These pomegranates are about an inch smaller than the typical size, but they're packed with antioxidents.\" width=\"3264\" height=\"2448\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22653\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">These pomegranates are about an inch smaller than the typical size, but they’re packed with antioxidents. (Courtesy of Tiziana Centofanti)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Tiziana Centofanti carefully hand-waters some pomegranate trees with a tiny bucket. “The important thing is to go really slowly,” she says. “The soil is very dry right now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://tizianacentofanti.weebly.com/uploads/3/9/4/1/39411617/tiziana_centofanti_cv_2014_september.pdf\">Centofanti \u003c/a>is a research scientist affiliated with the \u003ca href=\"http://www.fresnostate.edu/jcast/cit/\">Center for Irrigation Technology\u003c/a> at Fresno State. She’s based at the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ars.usda.gov/main/site_main.htm?modecode=20-34-05-00\">U.S. Department of Agriculture lab in Parlier\u003c/a>, a sprawling campus of experimental farmland about half an hour south of Fresno.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the questions she’s asking is whether fruit from trees that don’t get much water are less nutritious, compared to fruit from trees that get plenty of water. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“My research is about physiological response to stresses,” Centofanti says, “and drought is one of those.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some of the pomegranate trees in these orchards are pretty stressed out. They’re planted inside a tile ring that constrains their root systems, so they burrow deep into the ground. Centofanti’s watering them with a solution of salt, boron and selenium; these are natural elements in the soil on many Central Valley farms that are also struggling with drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22714\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/tiny-pomegranates-constrained-roots--e1413592464992.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/tiny-pomegranates-constrained-roots--e1413592464992.jpg\" alt=\"The tile ring forces the roots of these trees to grow more deeply.\" width=\"320\" height=\"428\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22714\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The tile ring prevents the roots of these trees from spreading out, forcing them to grow further down. (Tiziana Centofanti)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“You will definitely see that these trees are much, much smaller,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They’re actually dwarfish, and the fruit on them is tiny, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Centofanti shows me another plot of pomegranates she’s watering with just 35 percent of what a tree would normally drink, and yet another group of trees that are getting half the normal amount of water. These trees are all growing to the usual height, but their fruit is cracked, so you can see the pomegranate seeds peeking out, like tiny rubies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Research \u003ca href=\"http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11052704\">shows\u003c/a> that pomegranates have specific compounds that may reduce swelling and infection, even possibly fight \u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1026309813000692\">DNA damage\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.panelamonitor.org/media/docrepo/document/files/dietary-antioxidants-and-cardiovascular-disease.pdf\">cardiovascular disease\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To see how drought might change that fruit chemistry, Centofanti takes the water-stressed pomegranates into the lab. She cuts them and uses a french press to squeeze everything, including the peel, into juice. She shakes that onto a magnetic stirrer, and analyzes it with liquid chromatography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Preliminary data, she says, confirm her suspicions about drought’s effect on the fruit’s nutritional value.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Does not affect the fruit quality, so nothing, no differences at all,” Centofanti says, gesturing toward a deep freezer full of fruit samples.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The tiny pomegranates seem to have double the antioxidant content of pomegranates grown under normal conditions.”\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Preliminary results from this soon-to-be-published study show that the cracked pomegranates grown with much less water still have all the normal antioxidant levels — the same amount of vitamin C, micronutrients and macronutrients. Same with the drought-stressed grapes Centofanti’s tested.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there is one interesting difference about the tiny pomegranate trees, the ones with constrained roots.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The tiny pomegranates \u003ca href=\"http://www.icwt.net/wrpi/2013/Zoldoske.pdf\">grown with the salt and boron\u003c/a> seem to have\u003cem> double\u003c/em> the antioxidant content of pomegranates grown under normal conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Plants when they are stressed, they tend to produce higher content of phenolics, antioxidants,” Centofanti says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the trees under the most stress come out fighting, releasing more protective chemical compounds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Centofanti’s now looking into whether there’s a similar effect on peaches. Those trials are still in the early stages and so far, like pomegranates, the peaches she’s grown with less water are tiny.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The big challenge? Convincing consumers that fruit that’s smaller or cracked might be better for you, and for the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I believe that if we’re able to market this fruit as environmentally friendly because it uses it less water, and it’s grown in the Central Valley where we have so much drought problems,” Centofanti says, “consumers will be ready to buy the fruit, because it’s environmentally friendly.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22723\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 4608px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/0341.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/0341.jpg\" alt=\"Customers at the farmer's market in San Francisco's ferry building were snapping up these tomatoes from Dirty Girl Produce, grown without irrigation.\" width=\"4608\" height=\"3456\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22723\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Customers at the farmers market at San Francisco’s Ferry building were snapping up these tomatoes from Dirty Girl Produce, grown without irrigation. (Adizah Eghan/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>That may be true at a foodie hub like the Ferry Building farmer’s market in San Francisco, where \u003ca href=\"http://www.dirtygirlproduce.com/\">Dirty Girl Produce \u003c/a>hands out free samples of dry-farmed tomatoes to enthusiastic customers. They’re grown in Santa Cruz, without irrigation — and that’s part of their appeal. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Once we put the tomato plants into the ground, after they’ve got some roots, we don’t water them again,” says Dirty Girl’s Tristan Covello, “so they have to find their own water. Because of that, they’ll grow lots of really deep roots to find lots of nutrients and minerals that make them really delicious.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, \u003ca href=\"http://giannini.ucop.edu/CalAgBook/Chap1.pdf\">dry farming was the norm\u003c/a> back in the 19\u003csup>th\u003c/sup> century for many California farmers. They relied on limited natural rainfall for dry land crops like winter wheat and barely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It wasn’t until massive irrigation projects plumbed water all over the state that the hot, arid Central Valley was transformed into the nation’s most productive farm belt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But do those crops really need all that water?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a sprawling vineyard near Delano, just north of Bakersfield, Andrew Zaninovich shows me a test plot of crimson seedless table grapes that get 50 to 70 percent of the water he’d usually use. Zaninovich runs \u003ca href=\"http://www.sunviewvineyards.com/sunview.htm\">Sunview Vineyards\u003c/a>, which supplies many of the nation’s biggest markets with table grapes, and he’s working with the USDA researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The drought-stressed vines look surprisingly green to my eyes. I thought they’d be all shriveled up and dried.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“To the layperson, they do look pretty green and healthy,” Zaninovich says, “but to me, the person who’s responsible for delivering a box of fruit that a consumer would be happy with, this\u003cem> is\u003c/em> a problem.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Zaninovich points out brown edges on the leaves, and the variable colors of the grapes. He takes a quarter from his pocket and holds it up next to a bunch of grapes on these vines. It’s a farmer’s trick to get a sense of their relative size.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22726\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 4272px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/IMG_8844.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/IMG_8844.jpg\" alt=\"Drought-stressed grapes have variable coloring, rather than a uniform deep red. And they're smaller than the shiny quarter -- a common test of grape quality.\" width=\"4272\" height=\"2848\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22726\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">These drought-stressed grapes have variable coloring, rather than a uniform deep red. And they’re smaller than the shiny quarter. (Sasha Khokha/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“This wouldn’t be commercially acceptable,” Zaninovich says, shaking his head. “Many retailers are telling us they don’t want fruit that’s less than 13/16 of an inch in diameter. They want big, juicy looking grapes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Zaninovich doesn’t think much of the idea that mainstream consumers will want to buy grapes grown with less water, even if they don’t look as pretty.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s a really niche, high-risk approach,” he says. “Our industry last week sold somewhere between 4½ and 5 million boxes. Those are the numbers that make this a viable industry in California. We need to have something that’s mainstream that the consumers around the world agree on is a desirable package.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So if Zaninovich doesn’t see promising results from growing fruit with half the water, why is he still investing in the experiment?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s a term that’s used, drops per crop, and I think we just need to figure out how to maximize that efficiency,” he says. “It’s worth the exercise, it’s worth the experiment, it’s worth the loss, just to learn.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The USDA researchers in Parlier are hoping to get funding to continue looking at the antioxidant content of fruit grown with less water. They’re not only analyzing pomegranates and peaches, but \u003ca href=\"http://www.fresnostate.edu/jcast/cati/update/2013-fall/opuntia-study.html\">opuntia cacti,\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://foodblogga.blogspot.com/2011/06/what-is-agretti.html\">agretti \u003c/a>(salsola soda), a gourmet vegetable from Italy that can be watered with salt water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, researchers in Mexico, Thailand, Taiwan and Spain have managed to grow spicier peppers by giving them less water. But when UC scientists working with jalapeño growers in Santa Clara and San Benito counties tried \u003ca href=\"http://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=15571\">repeating the experiment\u003c/a>, the results were only lukewarm.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Scientists in California's Central Valley are testing the nutrient content of fruits grown with less-than-normal amounts of water. And the findings so far are raising a question: will consumers buy fruits that are just as nutritional, or sometimes higher in antioxidants, if they aren't as pretty?",
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"description": "Scientists in California's Central Valley are testing the nutrient content of fruits grown with less-than-normal amounts of water. And the findings so far are raising a question: will consumers buy fruits that are just as nutritional, or sometimes higher in antioxidants, if they aren't as pretty?",
"title": "Drought-Stressed Crops May Be Better For You | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cdiv class=\"audio-wrap\">\n\u003ch2>Listen:\u003c/h2>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22653\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 3264px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/25-O.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/25-O.jpg\" alt=\"These pomegranates are about an inch smaller than the typical size, but they're packed with antioxidents.\" width=\"3264\" height=\"2448\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22653\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">These pomegranates are about an inch smaller than the typical size, but they’re packed with antioxidents. (Courtesy of Tiziana Centofanti)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Tiziana Centofanti carefully hand-waters some pomegranate trees with a tiny bucket. “The important thing is to go really slowly,” she says. “The soil is very dry right now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://tizianacentofanti.weebly.com/uploads/3/9/4/1/39411617/tiziana_centofanti_cv_2014_september.pdf\">Centofanti \u003c/a>is a research scientist affiliated with the \u003ca href=\"http://www.fresnostate.edu/jcast/cit/\">Center for Irrigation Technology\u003c/a> at Fresno State. She’s based at the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ars.usda.gov/main/site_main.htm?modecode=20-34-05-00\">U.S. Department of Agriculture lab in Parlier\u003c/a>, a sprawling campus of experimental farmland about half an hour south of Fresno.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the questions she’s asking is whether fruit from trees that don’t get much water are less nutritious, compared to fruit from trees that get plenty of water. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“My research is about physiological response to stresses,” Centofanti says, “and drought is one of those.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some of the pomegranate trees in these orchards are pretty stressed out. They’re planted inside a tile ring that constrains their root systems, so they burrow deep into the ground. Centofanti’s watering them with a solution of salt, boron and selenium; these are natural elements in the soil on many Central Valley farms that are also struggling with drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22714\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/tiny-pomegranates-constrained-roots--e1413592464992.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/tiny-pomegranates-constrained-roots--e1413592464992.jpg\" alt=\"The tile ring forces the roots of these trees to grow more deeply.\" width=\"320\" height=\"428\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22714\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The tile ring prevents the roots of these trees from spreading out, forcing them to grow further down. (Tiziana Centofanti)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“You will definitely see that these trees are much, much smaller,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They’re actually dwarfish, and the fruit on them is tiny, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Centofanti shows me another plot of pomegranates she’s watering with just 35 percent of what a tree would normally drink, and yet another group of trees that are getting half the normal amount of water. These trees are all growing to the usual height, but their fruit is cracked, so you can see the pomegranate seeds peeking out, like tiny rubies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Research \u003ca href=\"http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11052704\">shows\u003c/a> that pomegranates have specific compounds that may reduce swelling and infection, even possibly fight \u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1026309813000692\">DNA damage\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.panelamonitor.org/media/docrepo/document/files/dietary-antioxidants-and-cardiovascular-disease.pdf\">cardiovascular disease\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To see how drought might change that fruit chemistry, Centofanti takes the water-stressed pomegranates into the lab. She cuts them and uses a french press to squeeze everything, including the peel, into juice. She shakes that onto a magnetic stirrer, and analyzes it with liquid chromatography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Preliminary data, she says, confirm her suspicions about drought’s effect on the fruit’s nutritional value.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Does not affect the fruit quality, so nothing, no differences at all,” Centofanti says, gesturing toward a deep freezer full of fruit samples.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The tiny pomegranates seem to have double the antioxidant content of pomegranates grown under normal conditions.”\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Preliminary results from this soon-to-be-published study show that the cracked pomegranates grown with much less water still have all the normal antioxidant levels — the same amount of vitamin C, micronutrients and macronutrients. Same with the drought-stressed grapes Centofanti’s tested.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there is one interesting difference about the tiny pomegranate trees, the ones with constrained roots.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The tiny pomegranates \u003ca href=\"http://www.icwt.net/wrpi/2013/Zoldoske.pdf\">grown with the salt and boron\u003c/a> seem to have\u003cem> double\u003c/em> the antioxidant content of pomegranates grown under normal conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Plants when they are stressed, they tend to produce higher content of phenolics, antioxidants,” Centofanti says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the trees under the most stress come out fighting, releasing more protective chemical compounds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Centofanti’s now looking into whether there’s a similar effect on peaches. Those trials are still in the early stages and so far, like pomegranates, the peaches she’s grown with less water are tiny.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The big challenge? Convincing consumers that fruit that’s smaller or cracked might be better for you, and for the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I believe that if we’re able to market this fruit as environmentally friendly because it uses it less water, and it’s grown in the Central Valley where we have so much drought problems,” Centofanti says, “consumers will be ready to buy the fruit, because it’s environmentally friendly.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22723\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 4608px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/0341.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/0341.jpg\" alt=\"Customers at the farmer's market in San Francisco's ferry building were snapping up these tomatoes from Dirty Girl Produce, grown without irrigation.\" width=\"4608\" height=\"3456\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22723\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Customers at the farmers market at San Francisco’s Ferry building were snapping up these tomatoes from Dirty Girl Produce, grown without irrigation. (Adizah Eghan/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>That may be true at a foodie hub like the Ferry Building farmer’s market in San Francisco, where \u003ca href=\"http://www.dirtygirlproduce.com/\">Dirty Girl Produce \u003c/a>hands out free samples of dry-farmed tomatoes to enthusiastic customers. They’re grown in Santa Cruz, without irrigation — and that’s part of their appeal. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Once we put the tomato plants into the ground, after they’ve got some roots, we don’t water them again,” says Dirty Girl’s Tristan Covello, “so they have to find their own water. Because of that, they’ll grow lots of really deep roots to find lots of nutrients and minerals that make them really delicious.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, \u003ca href=\"http://giannini.ucop.edu/CalAgBook/Chap1.pdf\">dry farming was the norm\u003c/a> back in the 19\u003csup>th\u003c/sup> century for many California farmers. They relied on limited natural rainfall for dry land crops like winter wheat and barely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It wasn’t until massive irrigation projects plumbed water all over the state that the hot, arid Central Valley was transformed into the nation’s most productive farm belt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But do those crops really need all that water?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a sprawling vineyard near Delano, just north of Bakersfield, Andrew Zaninovich shows me a test plot of crimson seedless table grapes that get 50 to 70 percent of the water he’d usually use. Zaninovich runs \u003ca href=\"http://www.sunviewvineyards.com/sunview.htm\">Sunview Vineyards\u003c/a>, which supplies many of the nation’s biggest markets with table grapes, and he’s working with the USDA researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The drought-stressed vines look surprisingly green to my eyes. I thought they’d be all shriveled up and dried.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“To the layperson, they do look pretty green and healthy,” Zaninovich says, “but to me, the person who’s responsible for delivering a box of fruit that a consumer would be happy with, this\u003cem> is\u003c/em> a problem.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Zaninovich points out brown edges on the leaves, and the variable colors of the grapes. He takes a quarter from his pocket and holds it up next to a bunch of grapes on these vines. It’s a farmer’s trick to get a sense of their relative size.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22726\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 4272px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/IMG_8844.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/IMG_8844.jpg\" alt=\"Drought-stressed grapes have variable coloring, rather than a uniform deep red. And they're smaller than the shiny quarter -- a common test of grape quality.\" width=\"4272\" height=\"2848\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22726\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">These drought-stressed grapes have variable coloring, rather than a uniform deep red. And they’re smaller than the shiny quarter. (Sasha Khokha/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“This wouldn’t be commercially acceptable,” Zaninovich says, shaking his head. “Many retailers are telling us they don’t want fruit that’s less than 13/16 of an inch in diameter. They want big, juicy looking grapes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Zaninovich doesn’t think much of the idea that mainstream consumers will want to buy grapes grown with less water, even if they don’t look as pretty.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s a really niche, high-risk approach,” he says. “Our industry last week sold somewhere between 4½ and 5 million boxes. Those are the numbers that make this a viable industry in California. We need to have something that’s mainstream that the consumers around the world agree on is a desirable package.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So if Zaninovich doesn’t see promising results from growing fruit with half the water, why is he still investing in the experiment?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s a term that’s used, drops per crop, and I think we just need to figure out how to maximize that efficiency,” he says. “It’s worth the exercise, it’s worth the experiment, it’s worth the loss, just to learn.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The USDA researchers in Parlier are hoping to get funding to continue looking at the antioxidant content of fruit grown with less water. They’re not only analyzing pomegranates and peaches, but \u003ca href=\"http://www.fresnostate.edu/jcast/cati/update/2013-fall/opuntia-study.html\">opuntia cacti,\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://foodblogga.blogspot.com/2011/06/what-is-agretti.html\">agretti \u003c/a>(salsola soda), a gourmet vegetable from Italy that can be watered with salt water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, researchers in Mexico, Thailand, Taiwan and Spain have managed to grow spicier peppers by giving them less water. But when UC scientists working with jalapeño growers in Santa Clara and San Benito counties tried \u003ca href=\"http://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=15571\">repeating the experiment\u003c/a>, the results were only lukewarm.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "High Temps Intensified California Drought",
"headTitle": "High Temps Intensified California Drought | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22524\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1280px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/AnzaBorrego_BillGracy_flickr_o.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22524\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/AnzaBorrego_BillGracy_flickr_o.jpg\" alt=\"Sun and wind bear down on a spot near Borrego Springs. (Bill Gracey/flickr)\" width=\"1280\" height=\"748\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sun and wind bear down on a spot near Borrego Springs. (Bill Gracey/flickr)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The showers and cooler temperatures in the forecast this week won’t be a drought buster — but they may help take the edge off conditions that have been been making the drought even worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Federal climate trackers said on Tuesday that the the January-September period was the \u003ca title=\"NOAA - summary\" href=\"http://1.usa.gov/ZCjI8R\">warmest on record\u003c/a> in California, besting the previous record by 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit. The announcement comes two weeks after the state’s 2014 “water year,” went into the books on September 30 as the third driest on record.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“While the amount of water year precipitation is an important measure — the standard, in fact — temperature plays an important part in how dry things are,” says Jeff Mount, a geologist and senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Water year 2013-14 wasn’t just dry, it was hot; “a near-record warm year, with all-time highs during the winter,” says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every dry, warm day certainly exacerbates the drought that we’re in,” says meteorologist Jan Null at Golden Gate Weather Services.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null, who tracks temperature trends for the Bay Area and beyond, \u003ca title=\"GG Wx - Sep 2014\" href=\"http://ggweather.com/calif/sep2014.htm\">summed up the month of September\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>“Most of California ended the month with above normal temperatures, with average maxima (highs) ranging from 1.4 above normal at Sacramento to 5.1 above normal in San Diego (one of their warmest on record).”\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>“When we start seeing warm weather at the end of the season, everything has been drying out now for four months,” says Null. And that means that more moisture was \u003ca title=\"Drought.gov - soil moisture\" href=\"http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-drought-indicators/soil-moisture\">baked out of the soil\u003c/a> as high-temperature records continued to fall into October. Low soil moisture tends to heighten the fire danger and make the ground less receptive to soaking up any rain that does come along.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Losses of soil moisture due to evapotranspiration (the combination of evaporation and the water taken up by plants) increase dramatically during warm years,” says Mount, who also co-founded the Center for Watershed Sciences at U.C. Davis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mount points to, among other indicators, the \u003ca title=\"PDSI\" href=\"http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-drought-indicators/palmer-drought-severity-index\">Palmer Drought Severity Index\u003c/a>. While the PDSI wasn’t designed with the California climate in mind, it does take into account soil moisture as well as precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://projects1.kqed.org/daily/gifs/droughtmapprogress.html\" width=\"640\" height=\"710\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This animation tracks California’s drought through its development, from January, 2011 through early October of this year, as expressed by NOAA’s U.S. Drought Monitor. The darkest red color represents “exceptional drought.” Nearly 60 percent of the state was in this category in early October, with more than 80 percent classified as “extreme drought.” Open the controls at bottom right to vary the speed and direction. (Animation by Olivia Hubert-Allen/KQED)\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Spring started early and, due to low moisture content of soils, ended early, giving California a long, very dry summer,” says Mount. ” This is why although we ended the water year third driest, our drought index is at an all-time record. Had it been a cool-dry year we would have had a different result.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mount calls it, “unprecedented dryness, particularly in the south coast where they got no relief from those recent rains.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some places did, however. Null says both Eureka and Redding logged more then 500 percent of their normal precipitation for September (which isn’t a lot). He says it looks like the general warm-dry pattern is about to shift, though water officials told state regulators this month that California would need 150 percent of its average precipitation for this winter to be a drought buster. And though no one knows what we’ll get at this point, that much rain and snow is far below current expectations and would likely trigger local flooding and landslides.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22524\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1280px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/AnzaBorrego_BillGracy_flickr_o.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22524\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/AnzaBorrego_BillGracy_flickr_o.jpg\" alt=\"Sun and wind bear down on a spot near Borrego Springs. (Bill Gracey/flickr)\" width=\"1280\" height=\"748\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sun and wind bear down on a spot near Borrego Springs. (Bill Gracey/flickr)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The showers and cooler temperatures in the forecast this week won’t be a drought buster — but they may help take the edge off conditions that have been been making the drought even worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Federal climate trackers said on Tuesday that the the January-September period was the \u003ca title=\"NOAA - summary\" href=\"http://1.usa.gov/ZCjI8R\">warmest on record\u003c/a> in California, besting the previous record by 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit. The announcement comes two weeks after the state’s 2014 “water year,” went into the books on September 30 as the third driest on record.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“While the amount of water year precipitation is an important measure — the standard, in fact — temperature plays an important part in how dry things are,” says Jeff Mount, a geologist and senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Water year 2013-14 wasn’t just dry, it was hot; “a near-record warm year, with all-time highs during the winter,” says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every dry, warm day certainly exacerbates the drought that we’re in,” says meteorologist Jan Null at Golden Gate Weather Services.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null, who tracks temperature trends for the Bay Area and beyond, \u003ca title=\"GG Wx - Sep 2014\" href=\"http://ggweather.com/calif/sep2014.htm\">summed up the month of September\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>“Most of California ended the month with above normal temperatures, with average maxima (highs) ranging from 1.4 above normal at Sacramento to 5.1 above normal in San Diego (one of their warmest on record).”\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>“When we start seeing warm weather at the end of the season, everything has been drying out now for four months,” says Null. And that means that more moisture was \u003ca title=\"Drought.gov - soil moisture\" href=\"http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-drought-indicators/soil-moisture\">baked out of the soil\u003c/a> as high-temperature records continued to fall into October. Low soil moisture tends to heighten the fire danger and make the ground less receptive to soaking up any rain that does come along.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Losses of soil moisture due to evapotranspiration (the combination of evaporation and the water taken up by plants) increase dramatically during warm years,” says Mount, who also co-founded the Center for Watershed Sciences at U.C. Davis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mount points to, among other indicators, the \u003ca title=\"PDSI\" href=\"http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-drought-indicators/palmer-drought-severity-index\">Palmer Drought Severity Index\u003c/a>. While the PDSI wasn’t designed with the California climate in mind, it does take into account soil moisture as well as precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://projects1.kqed.org/daily/gifs/droughtmapprogress.html\" width=\"640\" height=\"710\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This animation tracks California’s drought through its development, from January, 2011 through early October of this year, as expressed by NOAA’s U.S. Drought Monitor. The darkest red color represents “exceptional drought.” Nearly 60 percent of the state was in this category in early October, with more than 80 percent classified as “extreme drought.” Open the controls at bottom right to vary the speed and direction. (Animation by Olivia Hubert-Allen/KQED)\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Spring started early and, due to low moisture content of soils, ended early, giving California a long, very dry summer,” says Mount. ” This is why although we ended the water year third driest, our drought index is at an all-time record. Had it been a cool-dry year we would have had a different result.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mount calls it, “unprecedented dryness, particularly in the south coast where they got no relief from those recent rains.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some places did, however. Null says both Eureka and Redding logged more then 500 percent of their normal precipitation for September (which isn’t a lot). He says it looks like the general warm-dry pattern is about to shift, though water officials told state regulators this month that California would need 150 percent of its average precipitation for this winter to be a drought buster. And though no one knows what we’ll get at this point, that much rain and snow is far below current expectations and would likely trigger local flooding and landslides.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22139\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 850px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/RS8907_Drought_JoshC-4427-scr.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22139\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/RS8907_Drought_JoshC-4427-scr.jpg\" alt=\"At the end of the water year, San Luis Reservoir is at less than a quarter of its capacity. (Josh Cassidy/KQED) \" width=\"850\" height=\"567\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">At the end of the water year, San Luis Reservoir is at less than a quarter of its capacity. (Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Tuesday is “New Year’s Eve” for water managers in California, but they aren’t celebrating.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is the end of the state’s official “water year,” kind of a fiscal year for the water budget. Officials watch water years more closely than calendar years because they run from October to September, centered around the months in which California gets virtually all of its rainfall. And this one appears to be clocking in as the third driest on record, according to state climatologist Mike Anderson, with less than 60 percent of normal precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Measured by total precipitation within those months, the driest water year on record was 1924. Clocking in second was 1977, toward the end of California’s last epic drought, when one of the state’s \u003ca title=\"DWR - reservoir levels\" href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action\">principal reservoirs\u003c/a>, Lake Oroville on the Feather River, dropped to its all-time low of 26 percent of capacity. The lake’s current level is hovering just barely above that at 30 percent (less than half its historical average). But as state water officials are keen to point out in a \u003ca href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/news/newsreleases/2014/092914drywateryear.pdf\">press release\u003c/a>, the state’s population in those years was a fraction of what it is today:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>“…on September 1, the state’s major reservoirs collectively held only 57 percent of average storage for the date, or about 36 percent of capacity. Cumulative reservoir storage in 1977, to date California’s driest year on record, was approximately five million acre-feet less than today but the state in that year had millions fewer people.”\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>If you’re counting calendar years, 2013 was the driest on record and the outlook for 2014 isn’t much better, despite the early showers that have passed through already this fall. Those rains helped put a damper on wildfires but weren’t nearly enough to put a dent in the drought. \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/08/07/el-nino-fizzle-no-relief-likely-for-california-drought/\">Early hopes\u003c/a> for drought-busting El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have waned. It \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/audio/drought-myth-busting-why-el-nino-wont-save-california/\">takes a mighty El Niño\u003c/a> to really soak Northern California. Federal climate forecasters say the odds favor only a pipsqueak El Niño this fall and winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state also tracks a “precipitation year,” which runs July through June, in which the one ended June 30 was the second driest on record. California typically gets half its precipitation in the three months between December and February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anderson says it would take something in the range of 150 percent of normal precipitation for the year ahead to be a drought buster, and the forecast models are sending mixed messages. “Right now there’s no definitive signal, where the ocean or atmosphere are telling us to lean one way or the other,” he says, with an audible sigh. “It’s just a lot of uncertainty.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The immediate certainty is that day-to-day conservation — wise, sparing use of water — is essential as we face the possibility of a fourth dry winter,” DWR director Mark Cowin said in a release. The web is rife with water-saving tips, including the state’s \u003ca title=\"Save our Water - main\" href=\"http://saveourwater.com/\">official conservation site\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22139\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 850px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/RS8907_Drought_JoshC-4427-scr.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22139\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/RS8907_Drought_JoshC-4427-scr.jpg\" alt=\"At the end of the water year, San Luis Reservoir is at less than a quarter of its capacity. (Josh Cassidy/KQED) \" width=\"850\" height=\"567\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">At the end of the water year, San Luis Reservoir is at less than a quarter of its capacity. (Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Tuesday is “New Year’s Eve” for water managers in California, but they aren’t celebrating.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is the end of the state’s official “water year,” kind of a fiscal year for the water budget. Officials watch water years more closely than calendar years because they run from October to September, centered around the months in which California gets virtually all of its rainfall. And this one appears to be clocking in as the third driest on record, according to state climatologist Mike Anderson, with less than 60 percent of normal precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Measured by total precipitation within those months, the driest water year on record was 1924. Clocking in second was 1977, toward the end of California’s last epic drought, when one of the state’s \u003ca title=\"DWR - reservoir levels\" href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action\">principal reservoirs\u003c/a>, Lake Oroville on the Feather River, dropped to its all-time low of 26 percent of capacity. The lake’s current level is hovering just barely above that at 30 percent (less than half its historical average). But as state water officials are keen to point out in a \u003ca href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/news/newsreleases/2014/092914drywateryear.pdf\">press release\u003c/a>, the state’s population in those years was a fraction of what it is today:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>“…on September 1, the state’s major reservoirs collectively held only 57 percent of average storage for the date, or about 36 percent of capacity. Cumulative reservoir storage in 1977, to date California’s driest year on record, was approximately five million acre-feet less than today but the state in that year had millions fewer people.”\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>If you’re counting calendar years, 2013 was the driest on record and the outlook for 2014 isn’t much better, despite the early showers that have passed through already this fall. Those rains helped put a damper on wildfires but weren’t nearly enough to put a dent in the drought. \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/08/07/el-nino-fizzle-no-relief-likely-for-california-drought/\">Early hopes\u003c/a> for drought-busting El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have waned. It \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/audio/drought-myth-busting-why-el-nino-wont-save-california/\">takes a mighty El Niño\u003c/a> to really soak Northern California. Federal climate forecasters say the odds favor only a pipsqueak El Niño this fall and winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state also tracks a “precipitation year,” which runs July through June, in which the one ended June 30 was the second driest on record. California typically gets half its precipitation in the three months between December and February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anderson says it would take something in the range of 150 percent of normal precipitation for the year ahead to be a drought buster, and the forecast models are sending mixed messages. “Right now there’s no definitive signal, where the ocean or atmosphere are telling us to lean one way or the other,” he says, with an audible sigh. “It’s just a lot of uncertainty.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The immediate certainty is that day-to-day conservation — wise, sparing use of water — is essential as we face the possibility of a fourth dry winter,” DWR director Mark Cowin said in a release. The web is rife with water-saving tips, including the state’s \u003ca title=\"Save our Water - main\" href=\"http://saveourwater.com/\">official conservation site\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21920\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 850px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/RS9128_IMG_7747-copy-scr.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21920\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/RS9128_IMG_7747-copy-scr.jpg\" alt=\"A pipe leading to the Peters Dam spillway in Marin County, photographed in March, 2014. (Mark Andrew Boyer/KQED)\" width=\"850\" height=\"567\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pipe leading to the Peters Dam spillway in Marin County, photographed in March, 2014. (Mark Andrew Boyer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Californians continue to see the ongoing drought as a priority — and that may be driving a willingness to spend billions on securing their future water supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to the latest polling from the non-partisan \u003ca title=\"PPIC - main\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>, water and the drought clock in as the second most pressing issue among those polled, eclipsed only by jobs and the economy. Nearly nine-in-ten of the poll’s respondents said they considered water supply to be a “problem,” with almost two-thirds (65 percent) saying they consider it a “big problem.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given that level of urgency, it seems like no surprise that, when asked how they’ll vote for the $7.5 billion package of water measures now on the ballot as \u003ca title=\"Ballotpedia - Prop 1\" href=\"http://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_1,_Water_Bond_%282014%29\">Proposition 1\u003c/a>, 58 percent said “yes.” That’s enough to pass it and nearly double the proportion (29 percent) that said they planned to vote “no.” Support was consistent across the state, though highest in the Bay Area and Inland Empire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It may also not be surprising, considering that a “No on 1” campaign has yet to emerge with enough money behind it for media saturation. There is an organized \u003ca title=\"No on Prop 1 - main\" href=\"http://www.noonprop1.org/\">opposition to Prop 1\u003c/a>, largely a coalition of Delta and fishing interests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Detractors say it would be spending too much money for too little water. Some Delta groups have opposed the bond, claiming that it \u003ca title=\"Restore the Delta - post\" href=\"http://restorethedelta.org/blog/tunnels-opponents-gov-browns-bond-tunnels-neutral/\">would hasten realization\u003c/a> of Governor Jerry Brown’s \u003ca title=\"Q-NewsFix - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2013/03/14/california-to-release-chapters-of-plan-to-restore-delta/\">plan to build two cavernous tunnels\u003c/a> to transport Sacramento River water across the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Proponents of the bond measure say that it’s written to be “tunnels-neutral.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This willingness to pony up for water improvements seems to spill over to the local level. More than 7-in-10 respondents to the PPIC poll said that hypothetically, they’d also support local bond measures for projects that would help keep the water flowing. (Take note, local water agencies.)\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21920\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 850px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/RS9128_IMG_7747-copy-scr.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21920\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/RS9128_IMG_7747-copy-scr.jpg\" alt=\"A pipe leading to the Peters Dam spillway in Marin County, photographed in March, 2014. (Mark Andrew Boyer/KQED)\" width=\"850\" height=\"567\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pipe leading to the Peters Dam spillway in Marin County, photographed in March, 2014. (Mark Andrew Boyer/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Californians continue to see the ongoing drought as a priority — and that may be driving a willingness to spend billions on securing their future water supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to the latest polling from the non-partisan \u003ca title=\"PPIC - main\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>, water and the drought clock in as the second most pressing issue among those polled, eclipsed only by jobs and the economy. Nearly nine-in-ten of the poll’s respondents said they considered water supply to be a “problem,” with almost two-thirds (65 percent) saying they consider it a “big problem.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given that level of urgency, it seems like no surprise that, when asked how they’ll vote for the $7.5 billion package of water measures now on the ballot as \u003ca title=\"Ballotpedia - Prop 1\" href=\"http://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_1,_Water_Bond_%282014%29\">Proposition 1\u003c/a>, 58 percent said “yes.” That’s enough to pass it and nearly double the proportion (29 percent) that said they planned to vote “no.” Support was consistent across the state, though highest in the Bay Area and Inland Empire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It may also not be surprising, considering that a “No on 1” campaign has yet to emerge with enough money behind it for media saturation. There is an organized \u003ca title=\"No on Prop 1 - main\" href=\"http://www.noonprop1.org/\">opposition to Prop 1\u003c/a>, largely a coalition of Delta and fishing interests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Detractors say it would be spending too much money for too little water. Some Delta groups have opposed the bond, claiming that it \u003ca title=\"Restore the Delta - post\" href=\"http://restorethedelta.org/blog/tunnels-opponents-gov-browns-bond-tunnels-neutral/\">would hasten realization\u003c/a> of Governor Jerry Brown’s \u003ca title=\"Q-NewsFix - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2013/03/14/california-to-release-chapters-of-plan-to-restore-delta/\">plan to build two cavernous tunnels\u003c/a> to transport Sacramento River water across the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Proponents of the bond measure say that it’s written to be “tunnels-neutral.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This willingness to pony up for water improvements seems to spill over to the local level. More than 7-in-10 respondents to the PPIC poll said that hypothetically, they’d also support local bond measures for projects that would help keep the water flowing. (Take note, local water agencies.)\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21461\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/Next-10-water-allocation-game-e1410223541561.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-21461 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/Next-10-water-allocation-game-e1410223541561.jpg\" alt=\"Next 10 water allocation game\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">(Lindsey Hoshaw/KQED Science)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>If you’ve watched your neighbor “watering her sidewalk” or wrung your hands at the sight of agricultural runoff, now is your chance to allocate the state’s water resources. A new \u003ca href=\"http://www.cawaterchallenge.org/\">online game \u003c/a>lets California residents control the state’s water — virtually, at least.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From desalination investment to mandatory water reductions, the California Water Challenge lets users choose a range of outcomes and see how others voted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Price tags are attached to decisions, which have varying effects on energy consumption and the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Choosing to build a new reservoir, for example, not only costs $236 million per year, but it can also harm local ecosystems and may result in the loss of property tax revenue to local governments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/California-water-game.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-21491\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/California-water-game-1024x697.jpg\" alt=\"California water game\" width=\"625\" height=\"426\">\u003c/a>During the worst drought in the state’s recorded history, \u003ca href=\"http://www.next10.org/about\">Next 10\u003c/a>, the non-profit that created the game, believes making difficult decisions will help people understand the extent of the drought. Next 10 is backed by venture capitalist F. Noel Perry, who also serves on the leadership council for the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/bio.asp?i=434\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Local water agencies across the state are issuing alerts for conservation and some are even placing mandatory restrictions on water use,” said Perry in a pre-launch release. “This problem is not going away.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The game follows the lead of “you-fix-it” games like the New York Times’ popular \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/13/weekinreview/deficits-graphic.html\">Budget Puzzle\u003c/a>, which asked citizens to balance the federal budget in 2010.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These games often expose gaps in knowledge or reveal underlying assumptions about government spending.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a generation of millennials, they also speak a familiar language. “Games are fast becoming the defining metaphor of our time,” Peter T. Coleman, professor of psychology and education at Columbia University told \u003ca href=\"http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-five-percent/201301/the-consequences-our-games\">Psychology Today\u003c/a>. “How we think about, see and engage our world is largely determined by the metaphors we use to make sense of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Californians, this game may be a way to talk about a potentially eye-glazing issue with no easy solution. The game’s developers hope that being at the reins, even for five minutes, might usher in a sense of urgency and understanding about a new reality setting in for California.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21461\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/Next-10-water-allocation-game-e1410223541561.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-21461 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/Next-10-water-allocation-game-e1410223541561.jpg\" alt=\"Next 10 water allocation game\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">(Lindsey Hoshaw/KQED Science)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>If you’ve watched your neighbor “watering her sidewalk” or wrung your hands at the sight of agricultural runoff, now is your chance to allocate the state’s water resources. A new \u003ca href=\"http://www.cawaterchallenge.org/\">online game \u003c/a>lets California residents control the state’s water — virtually, at least.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From desalination investment to mandatory water reductions, the California Water Challenge lets users choose a range of outcomes and see how others voted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Price tags are attached to decisions, which have varying effects on energy consumption and the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Choosing to build a new reservoir, for example, not only costs $236 million per year, but it can also harm local ecosystems and may result in the loss of property tax revenue to local governments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/California-water-game.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-21491\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/California-water-game-1024x697.jpg\" alt=\"California water game\" width=\"625\" height=\"426\">\u003c/a>During the worst drought in the state’s recorded history, \u003ca href=\"http://www.next10.org/about\">Next 10\u003c/a>, the non-profit that created the game, believes making difficult decisions will help people understand the extent of the drought. Next 10 is backed by venture capitalist F. Noel Perry, who also serves on the leadership council for the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/bio.asp?i=434\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Local water agencies across the state are issuing alerts for conservation and some are even placing mandatory restrictions on water use,” said Perry in a pre-launch release. “This problem is not going away.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The game follows the lead of “you-fix-it” games like the New York Times’ popular \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/13/weekinreview/deficits-graphic.html\">Budget Puzzle\u003c/a>, which asked citizens to balance the federal budget in 2010.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These games often expose gaps in knowledge or reveal underlying assumptions about government spending.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a generation of millennials, they also speak a familiar language. “Games are fast becoming the defining metaphor of our time,” Peter T. Coleman, professor of psychology and education at Columbia University told \u003ca href=\"http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-five-percent/201301/the-consequences-our-games\">Psychology Today\u003c/a>. “How we think about, see and engage our world is largely determined by the metaphors we use to make sense of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Californians, this game may be a way to talk about a potentially eye-glazing issue with no easy solution. The game’s developers hope that being at the reins, even for five minutes, might usher in a sense of urgency and understanding about a new reality setting in for California.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Drought Myth-Busting: Why El Niño Is Never A Good Bet",
"headTitle": "Drought Myth-Busting: Why El Niño Is Never A Good Bet | KQED",
"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"audio-wrap\">\n\u003ch2>Listen:\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2014/08/20140901science.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20776\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/RS11735_Russian98_FEMADaveGatley_crop.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/RS11735_Russian98_FEMADaveGatley_crop.jpeg\" alt=\"The Russian River flooding from storms during the 1997-98 El Niño. (Dave Gatley/FEMA)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20776\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Russian River flooding from storms during the 1997-98 El Niño. (Dave Gatley/FEMA)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>If, like many Californians, you’ve been on El Niño Watch, you’re no-doubt confused by now. It’s happening. It’s not happening. But whether it is or isn’t might matter less than you think.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Don’t count on El Niño for anything,” Jay Lund, a UC Davis hydrologist, admonished us at a July drought briefing in Washington, D.C. At the time, forecasters were already downsizing earlier projections for a strong El Niño this fall (latest update shows that it might be regrouping for a comeback). But Lund was making a larger point: He and others have plotted El Niño against actual California precipitation and found … a pretty murky relationship, overall.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Don’t count on El Niño for anything.’\u003ccite>— Jay Lund, UC Davis\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“Don’t even look at the forecasts if you care about drought,” Lund advised.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That might seem like a strong statement given the reputation that the Pacific’s warm-water phase has for being a rainmaker, but records show that only the strongest El Niños have produced winters that were real super-soakers in Northern California — “strongest” meaning the times when ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific spiked the highest above normal — and those events are rare.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“El Niños come in all sizes: small, medium, large,” says Bill Patzert, a climatologist and El Niño watcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena. “During puny El Niños — weak El Niños — we’ve had some of the driest winters in the 20th century.” Count among them 1976 and ’77, a drought that is still etched in the memories of many Californians.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the opposite end of the scale was the winter of 1997-98 which brought roughly double the state’s normal precipitation, and triggered massive mudslides and flooding throughout California. That onslaught coincided with what Patzert calls the “Godzilla” El Niño. He says he thinks that year is when Californians began to form the assumption that El Niño equals rain.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Listen to more of Bill Patzert’s interview with Craig Miller\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A//api.soundcloud.com/tracks/164344234&color=ff5500&inverse=false&auto_play=false&show_user=true\" width=\"100%\" height=\"20\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It was El Niño mania 24/7 that winter,” recalls Patzert. “The name — because of ’97-’98 — makes reporters and water managers salivate, but that belies the fact; there are only a few big El Niños in every century.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The El Niño forecast for this winter is looking more gecko than Godzilla, experts say, with water only slightly warmer than normal. (For an\u003ca title=\"Vox - post\" href=\"http://www.vox.com/2014/8/13/5994771/scientists-were-expecting-a-monster-el-nino-this-year-so-where-did-it\"> in-depth explanation\u003c/a> of how El Niños form and why this year’s has petered out, see Brad Plumer’s post for Vox.) Since the “Godzilla” winter 16 years ago, there really hasn’t been anything to match it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://projects1.kqed.org/rimfire/elninoslider.html\" width=\"630\" height=\"540\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>The images above show warming (red) waters in the Pacific that indicate El Niño. Use the slider in the center to move back and forth between images from March and July, and note how much the warming has dissipated in recent months. (NASA/JPL)\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Wildcard in the Deck\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One reason for the lull in strong El Niños is a wildcard in the deck, another cycle known as the \u003ca title=\"UW - PDO\" href=\"http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/\">Pacific Decadal Oscillation\u003c/a>, or PDO. It’s like El Niño but farther north and much less capricious.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The PDO is like a super-tanker,” says Patzert. “It’s very slow and it takes a long time and a lot of momentum to switch direction. Sometimes the negative PDO is what I call, ‘El Niño repellent.'” When the PDO is in its negative phase, it affects the high-altitude winds known as the jet stream. When that happens, the big winter storms tend to get detoured around California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The PDO has been stuck in this mode for the last 15 years, though some see signs that it might be ready to make a big switch into its “positive” phase, which would encourage El Niño conditions. Patzert isn’t so sure. “I’m not too optimistic about a switch in the PDO,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/oni.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20835\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/oni.jpg\" alt=\"Sixty years of El Nino fluctuations. Note the big spike that coincided with the storms of 1997-98. (NOAA/CPC) \" width=\"1503\" height=\"611\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Meteorologist Jan Null has put together an extensive \u003ca title=\"GGW - ENSO myths\" href=\"http://ggweather.com/enso/enso_myths.htm\">“myth-busting” page\u003c/a> for El Niño, which includes this visual history of the oscillation over the past six decades. Sixty years of El Niño fluctuations. Note the big spike that coincided with the storms of 1997-98 (click to enlarge). (NOAA/CPC)\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Hope Springs Eternal\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But just as El Niño doesn’t guarantee rain, the absence of one doesn’t necessarily mean no rain. Patzert says the stubborn ridge of high pressure that parked off the West Coast last winter and blocked incoming storms could give way this year for any number of reasons.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If that ridge breaks down this winter, we could have one wet, cold storm after another making its way down the length of California — and that would certainly be sweet.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Indeed. But the latest three-month outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center calls for drought conditions to “persist or intensify” throughout California, through November. The bottom line from Patzert: “Don’t cash in your 401(k) and invest in umbrellas.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "The peculiar set of ocean conditions is known as a California rainmaker -- but El Niño's reputation has been greatly exaggerated.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/div>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20776\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/RS11735_Russian98_FEMADaveGatley_crop.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/RS11735_Russian98_FEMADaveGatley_crop.jpeg\" alt=\"The Russian River flooding from storms during the 1997-98 El Niño. (Dave Gatley/FEMA)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20776\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Russian River flooding from storms during the 1997-98 El Niño. (Dave Gatley/FEMA)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>If, like many Californians, you’ve been on El Niño Watch, you’re no-doubt confused by now. It’s happening. It’s not happening. But whether it is or isn’t might matter less than you think.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Don’t count on El Niño for anything,” Jay Lund, a UC Davis hydrologist, admonished us at a July drought briefing in Washington, D.C. At the time, forecasters were already downsizing earlier projections for a strong El Niño this fall (latest update shows that it might be regrouping for a comeback). But Lund was making a larger point: He and others have plotted El Niño against actual California precipitation and found … a pretty murky relationship, overall.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Don’t count on El Niño for anything.’\u003ccite>— Jay Lund, UC Davis\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“Don’t even look at the forecasts if you care about drought,” Lund advised.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That might seem like a strong statement given the reputation that the Pacific’s warm-water phase has for being a rainmaker, but records show that only the strongest El Niños have produced winters that were real super-soakers in Northern California — “strongest” meaning the times when ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific spiked the highest above normal — and those events are rare.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“El Niños come in all sizes: small, medium, large,” says Bill Patzert, a climatologist and El Niño watcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena. “During puny El Niños — weak El Niños — we’ve had some of the driest winters in the 20th century.” Count among them 1976 and ’77, a drought that is still etched in the memories of many Californians.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the opposite end of the scale was the winter of 1997-98 which brought roughly double the state’s normal precipitation, and triggered massive mudslides and flooding throughout California. That onslaught coincided with what Patzert calls the “Godzilla” El Niño. He says he thinks that year is when Californians began to form the assumption that El Niño equals rain.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Listen to more of Bill Patzert’s interview with Craig Miller\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A//api.soundcloud.com/tracks/164344234&color=ff5500&inverse=false&auto_play=false&show_user=true\" width=\"100%\" height=\"20\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It was El Niño mania 24/7 that winter,” recalls Patzert. “The name — because of ’97-’98 — makes reporters and water managers salivate, but that belies the fact; there are only a few big El Niños in every century.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The El Niño forecast for this winter is looking more gecko than Godzilla, experts say, with water only slightly warmer than normal. (For an\u003ca title=\"Vox - post\" href=\"http://www.vox.com/2014/8/13/5994771/scientists-were-expecting-a-monster-el-nino-this-year-so-where-did-it\"> in-depth explanation\u003c/a> of how El Niños form and why this year’s has petered out, see Brad Plumer’s post for Vox.) Since the “Godzilla” winter 16 years ago, there really hasn’t been anything to match it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://projects1.kqed.org/rimfire/elninoslider.html\" width=\"630\" height=\"540\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>The images above show warming (red) waters in the Pacific that indicate El Niño. Use the slider in the center to move back and forth between images from March and July, and note how much the warming has dissipated in recent months. (NASA/JPL)\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Wildcard in the Deck\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One reason for the lull in strong El Niños is a wildcard in the deck, another cycle known as the \u003ca title=\"UW - PDO\" href=\"http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/\">Pacific Decadal Oscillation\u003c/a>, or PDO. It’s like El Niño but farther north and much less capricious.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The PDO is like a super-tanker,” says Patzert. “It’s very slow and it takes a long time and a lot of momentum to switch direction. Sometimes the negative PDO is what I call, ‘El Niño repellent.'” When the PDO is in its negative phase, it affects the high-altitude winds known as the jet stream. When that happens, the big winter storms tend to get detoured around California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The PDO has been stuck in this mode for the last 15 years, though some see signs that it might be ready to make a big switch into its “positive” phase, which would encourage El Niño conditions. Patzert isn’t so sure. “I’m not too optimistic about a switch in the PDO,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/oni.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20835\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/oni.jpg\" alt=\"Sixty years of El Nino fluctuations. Note the big spike that coincided with the storms of 1997-98. (NOAA/CPC) \" width=\"1503\" height=\"611\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Meteorologist Jan Null has put together an extensive \u003ca title=\"GGW - ENSO myths\" href=\"http://ggweather.com/enso/enso_myths.htm\">“myth-busting” page\u003c/a> for El Niño, which includes this visual history of the oscillation over the past six decades. Sixty years of El Niño fluctuations. Note the big spike that coincided with the storms of 1997-98 (click to enlarge). (NOAA/CPC)\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Hope Springs Eternal\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But just as El Niño doesn’t guarantee rain, the absence of one doesn’t necessarily mean no rain. Patzert says the stubborn ridge of high pressure that parked off the West Coast last winter and blocked incoming storms could give way this year for any number of reasons.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If that ridge breaks down this winter, we could have one wet, cold storm after another making its way down the length of California — and that would certainly be sweet.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Indeed. But the latest three-month outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center calls for drought conditions to “persist or intensify” throughout California, through November. The bottom line from Patzert: “Don’t cash in your 401(k) and invest in umbrellas.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "California's Drought is Hurting Farmers More Than Food Consumers",
"headTitle": "California’s Drought is Hurting Farmers More Than Food Consumers | KQED",
"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_19423\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/DixonHay_4603.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19423\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/DixonHay_4603.jpg\" alt=\"A hayfield being mowed in the Sacramento Valley. (Craig Miller/KQED)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A hayfield being mowed in the Sacramento Valley. The drought has pushed up prices for alfalfa hay in California by about 20 percent, but most food prices have remained more stable. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Economists estimate that the California drought will inflict about $2.2 billion of losses on the state’s farm economy this year, including the loss of more than 17,000 jobs. \u003ca title=\"UCD - ag drought rpt\" href=\"http://bit.ly/U7vqFy\">The analysis\u003c/a>, produced by UC Davis and the consulting firm ERA Economics, projects that about 430,000 farm acres will go unplanted for lack of water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In May, the same Davis study team was already projecting that the current drought would take about 410,000 acres of Central Valley farm land out of production — nearly twice the area fallowed during the 2009 drought, about doubling the agricultural job losses as well. Karen Ross, who heads California’s Department of Food and Agriculture, which commissioned the study, says this is the first time the state has attempted a thorough assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of a California drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_19437\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 474px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-19437 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/DroughtImpactsChart_UCD.jpg\" alt=\"(UCD/ERA Economics)\" width=\"474\" height=\"348\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">(UCD/ERA Economics)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>While the overall impact is a relatively small fraction of California’s $42 billion farm economy, economist Richard Howitt, one of the study’s co-authors, says the drought will produce “pockets of extreme deprivation,” especially in the San Joaquin Valley and the arid corner of the Valley’s farm belt known as the Tulare Basin. Ross says it’s already evident from lines forming at food banks in the San Joaquin Valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Don’t count on El Niño for anything.’ \u003ccite>— Jay Lund, UC Davis\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>But Howitt says that the drought is so far having a lesser affect on food prices and is unlikely to produce shortages in supermarkets — at least not yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With a drought, you’re never really sure when it’s gonna end,” cautions Jay Lund, co-founder of the Center for Watershed Studies at UC Davis. His calculations \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/06/15/oddsmaking-on-a-fourth-drought-year-for-california/\">favor the odds of a fourth dry year\u003c/a>, with the chance of a “critically dry” year — like this one — about one in three. That’s despite talk of possible El Niño conditions forming in the Pacific, often seen mistakenly as a harbinger of rain. “Don’t count on El Niño for anything,” says Lund.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Groundwater at Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A fourth year of drought would change the game dramatically. A major reason for that is the aggressive pumping of groundwater that farmers have turned to in the absence of normal deliveries from reservoirs and canals. The Davis team estimates that increased pumping from aquifers could offset three-quarters of the surface water shortfall. But that can’t go on forever.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s quite clear that the underground groundwater is the reserve bank account,” says Howitt. “We’re like somebody who is so rich, they don’t have to balance their checkbook,” he told reporters in a briefing at the National Press Club, “because we still think we’re in a groundwater-rich era. Every other Western state has started to measure its groundwater and we don’t even measure our groundwater.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This may well be the year that changes. California \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/04/22/california-edging-closer-to-regulating-groundwater-for-the-first-time/\">may be closer than ever\u003c/a> to some political consensus toward tracking and regulating groundwater pumping. By next year at this time, farmers may not have as much leeway to pump, with or without state regulation. The price of pumping is rising steadily as shrinking aquifers require deeper wells. And the Davis team estimates that in some areas, as many as 15 percent of shallower wells could run dry within a year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked about the drought relief bill under consideration in Congress, Ross said it appears to be “on pause” currently and gave it a 50-50 chance of eventual passage. Ross, Lund and Howitt are in Washington D.C. to meet with lawmakers about the drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a cruel paradox, federal climate watchers reported that overall, the contiguous U.S. just had its sixth wettest June on record, though drought persists throughout much of the southwest.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Economists estimate that the drought will cost the state's farm economy about $2.2 billion this year, including the loss of more than 17,000 jobs.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_19423\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/DixonHay_4603.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19423\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/DixonHay_4603.jpg\" alt=\"A hayfield being mowed in the Sacramento Valley. (Craig Miller/KQED)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A hayfield being mowed in the Sacramento Valley. The drought has pushed up prices for alfalfa hay in California by about 20 percent, but most food prices have remained more stable. (Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Economists estimate that the California drought will inflict about $2.2 billion of losses on the state’s farm economy this year, including the loss of more than 17,000 jobs. \u003ca title=\"UCD - ag drought rpt\" href=\"http://bit.ly/U7vqFy\">The analysis\u003c/a>, produced by UC Davis and the consulting firm ERA Economics, projects that about 430,000 farm acres will go unplanted for lack of water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In May, the same Davis study team was already projecting that the current drought would take about 410,000 acres of Central Valley farm land out of production — nearly twice the area fallowed during the 2009 drought, about doubling the agricultural job losses as well. Karen Ross, who heads California’s Department of Food and Agriculture, which commissioned the study, says this is the first time the state has attempted a thorough assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of a California drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_19437\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 474px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-19437 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/07/DroughtImpactsChart_UCD.jpg\" alt=\"(UCD/ERA Economics)\" width=\"474\" height=\"348\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">(UCD/ERA Economics)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>While the overall impact is a relatively small fraction of California’s $42 billion farm economy, economist Richard Howitt, one of the study’s co-authors, says the drought will produce “pockets of extreme deprivation,” especially in the San Joaquin Valley and the arid corner of the Valley’s farm belt known as the Tulare Basin. Ross says it’s already evident from lines forming at food banks in the San Joaquin Valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Don’t count on El Niño for anything.’ \u003ccite>— Jay Lund, UC Davis\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>But Howitt says that the drought is so far having a lesser affect on food prices and is unlikely to produce shortages in supermarkets — at least not yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With a drought, you’re never really sure when it’s gonna end,” cautions Jay Lund, co-founder of the Center for Watershed Studies at UC Davis. His calculations \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/06/15/oddsmaking-on-a-fourth-drought-year-for-california/\">favor the odds of a fourth dry year\u003c/a>, with the chance of a “critically dry” year — like this one — about one in three. That’s despite talk of possible El Niño conditions forming in the Pacific, often seen mistakenly as a harbinger of rain. “Don’t count on El Niño for anything,” says Lund.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Groundwater at Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A fourth year of drought would change the game dramatically. A major reason for that is the aggressive pumping of groundwater that farmers have turned to in the absence of normal deliveries from reservoirs and canals. The Davis team estimates that increased pumping from aquifers could offset three-quarters of the surface water shortfall. But that can’t go on forever.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s quite clear that the underground groundwater is the reserve bank account,” says Howitt. “We’re like somebody who is so rich, they don’t have to balance their checkbook,” he told reporters in a briefing at the National Press Club, “because we still think we’re in a groundwater-rich era. Every other Western state has started to measure its groundwater and we don’t even measure our groundwater.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This may well be the year that changes. California \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/04/22/california-edging-closer-to-regulating-groundwater-for-the-first-time/\">may be closer than ever\u003c/a> to some political consensus toward tracking and regulating groundwater pumping. By next year at this time, farmers may not have as much leeway to pump, with or without state regulation. The price of pumping is rising steadily as shrinking aquifers require deeper wells. And the Davis team estimates that in some areas, as many as 15 percent of shallower wells could run dry within a year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked about the drought relief bill under consideration in Congress, Ross said it appears to be “on pause” currently and gave it a 50-50 chance of eventual passage. Ross, Lund and Howitt are in Washington D.C. to meet with lawmakers about the drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a cruel paradox, federal climate watchers reported that overall, the contiguous U.S. just had its sixth wettest June on record, though drought persists throughout much of the southwest.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"info": "Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.",
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"tagline": "Art is where you find it",
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"soldout": {
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