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"title": "A Seabird Comeback: How Restoration Efforts Can Combat Climate Change",
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"content": "\u003cp>Seabirds evolved about 60 million years ago, as Earth’s continents drifted toward their current positions and modern oceans took shape. They spread across thousands of undisturbed islands in the widening seas. And as flying dinosaurs and giant omnivorous sea reptiles died out, seabirds also started filling an ecological niche as ecosystem engineers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They distribute nutrients, in the form of guano, that’s beneficial to plankton, seagrass and coral reefs, which, in turn, nurtures fish populations that are eaten by seabirds and marine mammals in a cycle that forms a biological carbon pump. The stronger the pump, the more carbon dioxide it pushes into seabed sediment storage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Seabird colonies of almost unimaginable size likely persisted through eons of profound climate shifts and the geological upheavals of colliding continents, playing a profound role in the ocean carbon cycle. But even in their most far-flung island realms, they were quickly decimated by humans who colonized and industrialized the planet during the past 200 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By some estimates, the overall global seabird population has dropped by as much as 90% during that time, with \u003ca href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0129342\">a decline of 70% just since 1950\u003c/a>. Seabirds are \u003ca href=\"https://www.iucn.org/\">the most threatened group of birds and one of the most endangered groups of species\u003c/a>, according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Of 346 seabird species, 97 are globally threatened, and another 35 are listed as near-threatened. Almost half of all seabird species are known or suspected to be experiencing population declines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most of the damage has been from invasive predators — humans themselves, and the rats, cats, dogs and pigs they brought along as they exploited island after island. After millions of years of predator-free evolution, the birds didn’t recognize the new species as threats. They were particularly vulnerable because they don’t breed as prolifically as many terrestrial birds, and spend a long time nurturing their flightless young on land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There was also direct human predation on an industrial scale, with the harvest of seabird eggs for food, their guano as fertilizer and the birds themselves to render for oil, along with seals, sea lions and whales, or as the unwanted bycatch of commercial fishing boats. On the Farallon Islands near San Francisco, home to the largest single seabird nesting colony in the United States, the murre population dropped from 400,000 to 60,000 in just a few decades during the gold rush, as \u003ca href=\"https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-california-went-war-over-eggs-180971960/\">people harvested up to half a million eggs per year\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982712\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982712 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px-800x514.png\" alt='An infographic showing three different seabird species, with a background of a map. The text on the infographic says: \"A Seabird Comeback: New research tracked the implementation and success of 851 active seabird restoration projects around the world between 1954 and 2021, finding that a high percentage of them are showing signs of success. In some cases, birds are returning on their own to nesting sites where invasive predators have been eliminated. In other cases, young birds that were relocated from one place to another later returned on their own after spending several years at sea.\"' width=\"800\" height=\"514\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px-800x514.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px-160x103.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px-768x494.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px.png 1000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">New research tracked the implementation and success of 851 active seabird restoration projects around the world between 1954 and 2021, finding that a high percentage of them are showing signs of success. In some cases, birds are returning on their own to nesting sites where invasive predators have been eliminated. In other cases, young birds that were relocated from one place to another later returned on their own after spending several years at sea.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Today the Farallon Islands are protected as part of a marine sanctuary and the nesting seabird colonies are recovering, helping to sustain the surrounding marine ecosystem, including great white sharks, apex predators that sometimes feed on the population of northern fur seals that have returned to the islands since they were protected. Rhinoceros auklets, related to puffins, have also returned and more than \u003ca href=\"https://farallones.org/sanctuary-wildlife/\">20 endangered and threatened species — birds, reptiles, insects, marine mammals and even sea turtles — live on and and around the islands\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>The comeback has already started\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>And there are hundreds of other seabird restoration projects around the world showing signs of success, said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/Dena_Spatz\">Dena Spatz\u003c/a>, a scientist with \u003ca href=\"https://pacificrimconservation.org/\">Pacific Rim Conservation\u003c/a>, a nonprofit that focuses on ecosystem repairs. Spatz was lead author of an April 10 \u003ca href=\"https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2214574120\">study\u003c/a> in the Proceedings National Academy of Sciences that \u003ca href=\"http://seabirddatabase.org/\">compiled data from 851 restoration projects in 36 countries targeting 138 species of seabirds over the past 70 years\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new study focused on efforts to actively bring back bird populations, including social attraction methods, like using decoys, as well as direct translocation of young birds to new sites free of invasive predators. In more than 75% of the restorations, targeted species visited the sites and started breeding within two years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982713\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982713 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-800x553.jpeg\" alt=\"A bird rookery is seen in the ocean.\" width=\"800\" height=\"553\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-800x553.jpeg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-1020x705.jpeg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-160x111.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-768x531.jpeg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1.jpeg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Guano-covered bird rookery in the Pacific Ocean near Mazunte, Oaxaca, Mexico. The guano gets rinsed into the ocean, which nurtures the ocean food web. \u003ccite>(Bob Berwyn/Inside Climate News)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“It’s an incredible success story,” she said. “A lot of seabirds come back without any intervention … But that’s not always the case all the time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some populations of seabirds are tiny and widely dispersed across distant islands, and a few of them have blinked out, she said. That makes it hard for the bird populations to get back to historic breeding levels without help.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s where active restoration, moving things from one place to another, becomes super critical,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Restoring seabirds could bolster ocean ecosystems and their ability to draw down carbon dioxide, said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/poertner_hans\">Hans-Otto Pörtner\u003c/a>, a climate scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, who recently co-authored a \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abl4881\">research paper in \u003cem>Science\u003c/em>\u003c/a> that spells out the connections between biodiversity, ecosystem protection and climate stabilization.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In addition to direct CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and other industrial processes, the disruption of ecosystems and biodiversity declines have also significantly contributed to rising atmospheric greenhouse concentrations that are heating up the planet, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Biodiversity loss contributes to climate change through loss of wild species and biomass,” the paper concluded. “This reduces carbon stocks and sink capacity in natural and managed ecosystems, increasing emissions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The resulting warming disturbs ecosystems in a vicious circle that worsens “the unprecedented loss of biodiversity already caused by human-induced habitat degradation, overexploitation of natural resources, and pollution,” he and his co-authors wrote in the \u003cem>Science\u003c/em> paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Adding continued biodiversity loss and habitat decline with projections for greenhouse gas emissions, Earth is on a path to heat up to near 3 degrees Celsius by 2100, and that won’t change unless humans proceed on the planet in a way that “allows biodiversity to thrive, and which incorporates a strengthening of the natural pathways of carbon binding and storage,” Pörtner said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Can assisted migration help?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The new seabird restoration study is part of a growing canon that documents thousands of various nature restoration projects on every continent, according to \u003ca href=\"https://restor.eco/?lat=26&lng=14.23&zoom=3\">Restor\u003c/a>, a nonprofit network building a global restoration database.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Restoring seabirds can help turnaround the declines in biodiversity and carbon sequestration, Spatz said, describing some of the translocation research pioneered by scientists in New Zealand that will help similar efforts elsewhere. The idea of moving birds physically from one place to another to restore populations is part of a growing effort of \u003ca href=\"https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=assisted+migration+in+climate+change+research&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart\">assisted migration\u003c/a>, which some scientists think will be critical as climate change impacts intensify. For seabirds, it’s done most with species that have evolved to return to the place they are born, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s this amazing biological response in birds like petrels, shearwaters, albatross and some puffins,” she said. “They’re born on an island, they fledge, they go to sea from anywhere between one and eight years, depending on the species and then go back to the place where they were born.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982714\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982714 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-800x601.jpeg\" alt=\"A seabird is seen soaring above the ocean. \" width=\"800\" height=\"601\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-800x601.jpeg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-1020x766.jpeg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-160x120.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-768x577.jpeg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seabirds include many pelagic species like petrels that spend nearly their entire lives at sea, returning to land only for a few months each year to breed. \u003ccite>(Bob Berwyn/Inside Climate News)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Relocation of the chicks is timed so they imprint on their new home in the way they normally would at the site where they hatched, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a huge endeavor to do this stuff. But it works when you do it, right,” she said. “What’s amazing is, once these birds come as fluffy chicks to a restoration site, they’re raised by people, but they don’t imprint on us. That’s just the way seabirds are, so that’s not a worry. Then they get feathers, and they fly on their own out to sea. And when it’s time to breed, they go to the restoration site instead of the place they were born.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Hawai’i, she said, scientists have been relocating albatross and petrel chicks from some of the low-lying Northwest Hawaiian Islands, where there are huge bird colonies, but some nesting grounds are already being swamped by rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not a future threat,” she said. “It’s a current threat. Those chicks probably wouldn’t have survived anyway if we hadn’t taken them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Let ecosystems flourish to benefit the climate\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Scaling up nature restoration and conservation efforts, including with seabirds, is absolutely critical to preventing a worst-case global warming outcome, said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/BernieTershy\">Bernie Tershy\u003c/a>, an ecology and evolutionary biology researcher at UC Santa Cruz.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A key part of that is pulling pollutants out of the atmosphere, right? So if you’re going to do that, one could argue that the best way to do that is to plant a whole bunch of the fastest growing trees over the most area possible,” said Tershy, who was not an author of the new seabird study but has worked on similar research.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But that would be like putting all your climate eggs in one basket, he said, describing risks, like wildfires and insect infestations that could quickly wipe out such monocultures before they have any climate benefits. A better approach is a diversified investment spread across ecosystems that suck carbon out of the atmosphere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s also totally the cheapest way because it’s a passive thing,” he said. “All you have to do is protect these natural areas and manage them well. They’ll soak up a ton of carbon and they’ll do it in a way that is incredibly resilient.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But you can’t just focus on a single species, he added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You need a bunch of different plant species,” he said. “And you need insect grazers and fertilizer-producing species. You need small mammal seed dispersers and you need the birds that disperse seeds and the fertilizers they produce that nurture the seeds. You need all that biodiversity to maintain resilient ecosystems that pull carbon out of the atmosphere.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Seabirds evolved about 60 million years ago, as Earth’s continents drifted toward their current positions and modern oceans took shape. They spread across thousands of undisturbed islands in the widening seas. And as flying dinosaurs and giant omnivorous sea reptiles died out, seabirds also started filling an ecological niche as ecosystem engineers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They distribute nutrients, in the form of guano, that’s beneficial to plankton, seagrass and coral reefs, which, in turn, nurtures fish populations that are eaten by seabirds and marine mammals in a cycle that forms a biological carbon pump. The stronger the pump, the more carbon dioxide it pushes into seabed sediment storage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Seabird colonies of almost unimaginable size likely persisted through eons of profound climate shifts and the geological upheavals of colliding continents, playing a profound role in the ocean carbon cycle. But even in their most far-flung island realms, they were quickly decimated by humans who colonized and industrialized the planet during the past 200 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By some estimates, the overall global seabird population has dropped by as much as 90% during that time, with \u003ca href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0129342\">a decline of 70% just since 1950\u003c/a>. Seabirds are \u003ca href=\"https://www.iucn.org/\">the most threatened group of birds and one of the most endangered groups of species\u003c/a>, according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Of 346 seabird species, 97 are globally threatened, and another 35 are listed as near-threatened. Almost half of all seabird species are known or suspected to be experiencing population declines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most of the damage has been from invasive predators — humans themselves, and the rats, cats, dogs and pigs they brought along as they exploited island after island. After millions of years of predator-free evolution, the birds didn’t recognize the new species as threats. They were particularly vulnerable because they don’t breed as prolifically as many terrestrial birds, and spend a long time nurturing their flightless young on land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There was also direct human predation on an industrial scale, with the harvest of seabird eggs for food, their guano as fertilizer and the birds themselves to render for oil, along with seals, sea lions and whales, or as the unwanted bycatch of commercial fishing boats. On the Farallon Islands near San Francisco, home to the largest single seabird nesting colony in the United States, the murre population dropped from 400,000 to 60,000 in just a few decades during the gold rush, as \u003ca href=\"https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-california-went-war-over-eggs-180971960/\">people harvested up to half a million eggs per year\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982712\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982712 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px-800x514.png\" alt='An infographic showing three different seabird species, with a background of a map. The text on the infographic says: \"A Seabird Comeback: New research tracked the implementation and success of 851 active seabird restoration projects around the world between 1954 and 2021, finding that a high percentage of them are showing signs of success. In some cases, birds are returning on their own to nesting sites where invasive predators have been eliminated. In other cases, young birds that were relocated from one place to another later returned on their own after spending several years at sea.\"' width=\"800\" height=\"514\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px-800x514.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px-160x103.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px-768x494.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/SeabirdRestorationWorld1000px.png 1000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">New research tracked the implementation and success of 851 active seabird restoration projects around the world between 1954 and 2021, finding that a high percentage of them are showing signs of success. In some cases, birds are returning on their own to nesting sites where invasive predators have been eliminated. In other cases, young birds that were relocated from one place to another later returned on their own after spending several years at sea.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Today the Farallon Islands are protected as part of a marine sanctuary and the nesting seabird colonies are recovering, helping to sustain the surrounding marine ecosystem, including great white sharks, apex predators that sometimes feed on the population of northern fur seals that have returned to the islands since they were protected. Rhinoceros auklets, related to puffins, have also returned and more than \u003ca href=\"https://farallones.org/sanctuary-wildlife/\">20 endangered and threatened species — birds, reptiles, insects, marine mammals and even sea turtles — live on and and around the islands\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>The comeback has already started\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>And there are hundreds of other seabird restoration projects around the world showing signs of success, said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/Dena_Spatz\">Dena Spatz\u003c/a>, a scientist with \u003ca href=\"https://pacificrimconservation.org/\">Pacific Rim Conservation\u003c/a>, a nonprofit that focuses on ecosystem repairs. Spatz was lead author of an April 10 \u003ca href=\"https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2214574120\">study\u003c/a> in the Proceedings National Academy of Sciences that \u003ca href=\"http://seabirddatabase.org/\">compiled data from 851 restoration projects in 36 countries targeting 138 species of seabirds over the past 70 years\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new study focused on efforts to actively bring back bird populations, including social attraction methods, like using decoys, as well as direct translocation of young birds to new sites free of invasive predators. In more than 75% of the restorations, targeted species visited the sites and started breeding within two years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982713\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982713 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-800x553.jpeg\" alt=\"A bird rookery is seen in the ocean.\" width=\"800\" height=\"553\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-800x553.jpeg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-1020x705.jpeg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-160x111.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1-768x531.jpeg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/birdcolony_guano2-1536x1062-1.jpeg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Guano-covered bird rookery in the Pacific Ocean near Mazunte, Oaxaca, Mexico. The guano gets rinsed into the ocean, which nurtures the ocean food web. \u003ccite>(Bob Berwyn/Inside Climate News)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“It’s an incredible success story,” she said. “A lot of seabirds come back without any intervention … But that’s not always the case all the time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some populations of seabirds are tiny and widely dispersed across distant islands, and a few of them have blinked out, she said. That makes it hard for the bird populations to get back to historic breeding levels without help.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s where active restoration, moving things from one place to another, becomes super critical,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Restoring seabirds could bolster ocean ecosystems and their ability to draw down carbon dioxide, said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/poertner_hans\">Hans-Otto Pörtner\u003c/a>, a climate scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, who recently co-authored a \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abl4881\">research paper in \u003cem>Science\u003c/em>\u003c/a> that spells out the connections between biodiversity, ecosystem protection and climate stabilization.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In addition to direct CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and other industrial processes, the disruption of ecosystems and biodiversity declines have also significantly contributed to rising atmospheric greenhouse concentrations that are heating up the planet, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Biodiversity loss contributes to climate change through loss of wild species and biomass,” the paper concluded. “This reduces carbon stocks and sink capacity in natural and managed ecosystems, increasing emissions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The resulting warming disturbs ecosystems in a vicious circle that worsens “the unprecedented loss of biodiversity already caused by human-induced habitat degradation, overexploitation of natural resources, and pollution,” he and his co-authors wrote in the \u003cem>Science\u003c/em> paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Adding continued biodiversity loss and habitat decline with projections for greenhouse gas emissions, Earth is on a path to heat up to near 3 degrees Celsius by 2100, and that won’t change unless humans proceed on the planet in a way that “allows biodiversity to thrive, and which incorporates a strengthening of the natural pathways of carbon binding and storage,” Pörtner said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Can assisted migration help?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The new seabird restoration study is part of a growing canon that documents thousands of various nature restoration projects on every continent, according to \u003ca href=\"https://restor.eco/?lat=26&lng=14.23&zoom=3\">Restor\u003c/a>, a nonprofit network building a global restoration database.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Restoring seabirds can help turnaround the declines in biodiversity and carbon sequestration, Spatz said, describing some of the translocation research pioneered by scientists in New Zealand that will help similar efforts elsewhere. The idea of moving birds physically from one place to another to restore populations is part of a growing effort of \u003ca href=\"https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=assisted+migration+in+climate+change+research&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart\">assisted migration\u003c/a>, which some scientists think will be critical as climate change impacts intensify. For seabirds, it’s done most with species that have evolved to return to the place they are born, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s this amazing biological response in birds like petrels, shearwaters, albatross and some puffins,” she said. “They’re born on an island, they fledge, they go to sea from anywhere between one and eight years, depending on the species and then go back to the place where they were born.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982714\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982714 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-800x601.jpeg\" alt=\"A seabird is seen soaring above the ocean. \" width=\"800\" height=\"601\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-800x601.jpeg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-1020x766.jpeg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-160x120.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel-768x577.jpeg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/petrel.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seabirds include many pelagic species like petrels that spend nearly their entire lives at sea, returning to land only for a few months each year to breed. \u003ccite>(Bob Berwyn/Inside Climate News)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Relocation of the chicks is timed so they imprint on their new home in the way they normally would at the site where they hatched, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a huge endeavor to do this stuff. But it works when you do it, right,” she said. “What’s amazing is, once these birds come as fluffy chicks to a restoration site, they’re raised by people, but they don’t imprint on us. That’s just the way seabirds are, so that’s not a worry. Then they get feathers, and they fly on their own out to sea. And when it’s time to breed, they go to the restoration site instead of the place they were born.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Hawai’i, she said, scientists have been relocating albatross and petrel chicks from some of the low-lying Northwest Hawaiian Islands, where there are huge bird colonies, but some nesting grounds are already being swamped by rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not a future threat,” she said. “It’s a current threat. Those chicks probably wouldn’t have survived anyway if we hadn’t taken them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Let ecosystems flourish to benefit the climate\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Scaling up nature restoration and conservation efforts, including with seabirds, is absolutely critical to preventing a worst-case global warming outcome, said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/BernieTershy\">Bernie Tershy\u003c/a>, an ecology and evolutionary biology researcher at UC Santa Cruz.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A key part of that is pulling pollutants out of the atmosphere, right? So if you’re going to do that, one could argue that the best way to do that is to plant a whole bunch of the fastest growing trees over the most area possible,” said Tershy, who was not an author of the new seabird study but has worked on similar research.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But that would be like putting all your climate eggs in one basket, he said, describing risks, like wildfires and insect infestations that could quickly wipe out such monocultures before they have any climate benefits. A better approach is a diversified investment spread across ecosystems that suck carbon out of the atmosphere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s also totally the cheapest way because it’s a passive thing,” he said. “All you have to do is protect these natural areas and manage them well. They’ll soak up a ton of carbon and they’ll do it in a way that is incredibly resilient.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But you can’t just focus on a single species, he added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You need a bunch of different plant species,” he said. “And you need insect grazers and fertilizer-producing species. You need small mammal seed dispersers and you need the birds that disperse seeds and the fertilizers they produce that nurture the seeds. You need all that biodiversity to maintain resilient ecosystems that pull carbon out of the atmosphere.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Mangoes and Agave in the Central Valley? California Farmers Try New Crops to Cope With Climate Change",
"headTitle": "Mangoes and Agave in the Central Valley? California Farmers Try New Crops to Cope With Climate Change | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>In a world of worsening heat waves, flooding, drought, glacial melting, megafires and other calamities of a changing climate, Gary Gragg is an optimist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As California warms, Gragg — a nurseryman, micro-scale farmer and tropical fruit enthusiast — looks forward to the day that he can grow and sell mangoes in Northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’ve been banking on this since I was 10 years old and first heard about global warming,” said Gragg, 54, who has planted several mango trees, among other subtropical trees, in his orchard about 25 miles west of Sacramento.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gragg’s little orchard might be the continent’s northernmost grove of mangoes, which normally are grown in places like Florida, Hawaii and Puerto Rico.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Northern California’s climate, he said, is becoming increasingly suitable for heat-loving, frost-sensitive mango trees, as well as avocados, cherimoyas and tropical palms, a specialty of his plant nursery \u003ca href=\"https://www.goldengatepalms.com/\">Golden Gate Palms\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Climate change isn’t all bad,” Gragg said. “People almost never talk about the positives of global warming, but there will be winners and losers everywhere.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mangoes may never become a mainstream crop in the northern half of California, but change is undoubtedly coming. Hustling to adapt, farmers around the state are experimenting with new, more sustainable crops and varieties bred to better tolerate drought, heat, humidity and other elements of the increasingly unruly climate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Central Valley, farmers are investing in avocados, which are traditionally planted farther south, and \u003ca href=\"https://www.ucdavis.edu/food/news/agave-drought-tolerant-california-crop\">agave\u003c/a>, a drought-resistant succulent grown in Mexico to make tequila.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In Santa Cruz, one grower is trying a tropical exotic, lucuma, that is native to South American regions with mild winters. Others are growing tropical dragon fruit from the Central Coast down to San Diego.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some Sonoma and Napa Valley wineries have planted new vineyards in cooler coastal hills and valleys to escape the extreme heat of inland areas. And several Bay Area farmers have planted yangmei, a delicacy in China that can resist blights that ravage peaches and other popular California crops during rainy springs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote align='left' citation='Gary Gragg, farmer, Sacramento Valley']‘People almost never talk about the positives of global warming, but there will be winners and losers everywhere.’[/pullquote]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Near the town of Linden, farmer Mike Machado, who served in the state Assembly and Senate from 1994 to 2008, is one of many growers in the arid San Joaquin Valley who have replaced some stone fruit and nut trees with olives, historically a minor California crop mostly produced in Mediterranean nations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re adjusting for survival,” Machado said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change essentially means that Southern California’s conditions are creeping north up the coast and into the valley, while Oregon and Washington are becoming more like Northern California. Precipitation, winds, fog and seasonal and daily temperature patterns — all of which determine which crops can be grown where — have all been altered.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With climate change, we’re getting more erratic entries into fall and more erratic entries into spring,” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.plantsciences.ucdavis.edu/people/louise-ferguson\">Louise Ferguson\u003c/a>, a UC Davis plant physiologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers predicted that “\u003ca href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0006166\">climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21st century will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California\u003c/a> … For some crops, production might no longer be possible.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Fruit growers all around the world in the warm regions are worried about” warming trends, particularly in winter, said Eike Luedeling, co-author of the study and professor of horticultural sciences at Germany’s University of Bonn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Davis researchers are at the cutting edge of the push to adapt, working to make California’s lucrative walnut, pistachio and stone fruit orchards more resilient by selectively breeding for heat, disease and drought tolerance.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About three-quarters of the nation’s fruits and nuts are grown in California, but fruit and nut trees are among the most vulnerable crops to climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Luedeling’s research, for example, suggests that high winter temperatures could severely reduce walnut yields about once a decade.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ucanr.edu/?facultyid=26295\">Katherine Jarvis-Shean\u003c/a>, an orchard adviser with the UC Agriculture and Natural Resources program, said that effect will be magnified farther south: “That’s probably one in five years in the southern San Joaquin Valley,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Searching for genetic resilience\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://apps1.cdfa.ca.gov/FertilizerResearch/docs/Pistachio_Production_CA.pdf\">Pistachios have grown to be one of the state’s mightiest crops (PDF)\u003c/a>, with acreage of mature trees now covering more than 400,000 acres. The 2021 harvest totaled about 577,000 tons and was valued at nearly $3 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now crop scientists are working to save these valuable orchards from the effects of warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Warmer winters can cause male varieties to bloom and release pollen too late, after the female flowers have opened. This means less pollination and less fruit, and in 2015 many orchards suffered total crop failure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Patrick Brown, a UC Davis nut crop breeder, said farmers have solved this problem, at least for now, by grafting additional male varieties with different blooming schedules into the groves. “It’s a fairly easy hedge against that problem (of warmer winters),” he said. “No matter when the females bloom, there should be some pollen for them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Breeding programs to reduce nuts’ chill requirements are underway, but Brown said these trees have trade-offs: They tend to wake up earlier from winter dormancy, which can put premature foliage at risk of frost damage and expose young leaves to rainfall that causes blight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brown is now leading a hunt for genetic resistance to walnut blight in the shady groves of the Wolfskill Experimental Orchards, a repository of nearly 9,000 grapevine and tree fruit varieties from around the world. This genetic bank, owned by UC Davis and jointly run with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, includes walnut trees of several species and hundreds of varieties.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brown’s experiment involves showering the walnuts with sprinklers in spring and summer and observing which develop the symptoms of blight — oil-black stains on the leaves and fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>His research is focused on walnut trees grown from \u003ca href=\"https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/the-great-georgian-fruit-hunt-68708316/\">seeds collected in the Republic of Georgia\u003c/a>, where humidity creates conditions amenable to the disease. This likely has created localized genetic resistance — what Brown hopes to find.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It gets pretty hot and humid (in Georgia) during the growing season, and if there’s resistance to blight anywhere, that would probably be a good place to look,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote align='left' citation='Claire Heinitz, research leader, US Department of Agriculture']‘Drought tolerance is a really tough nut to crack, because it doesn’t just involve roots — it involves every system of the plant.’[/pullquote]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still other problems are emerging as California’s weather patterns grow more erratic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early fall rains have been a problem for walnuts, spoiling ripening fruits. And heat waves — especially when they follow a rain event — can cause fruit to drop or spoil. Almost 40% of last fall’s walnut crop was lost when Central Valley temperatures approached 115 degrees, according to \u003ca href=\"https://walnuts.org/news/robert-verloop-named-executive-director-and-ceo-for-the-california-walnut-board-and-california-walnut-commission/\">Robert Verloop\u003c/a>, executive director of the California Walnut Board and the California Walnut Commission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Walnut growers “are worried about heat waves, and they should be,” Jarvis-Shean said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another UC Davis study at the Wolfskill orchards aims to identify genes for heat tolerance in European walnut trees. Claire Heinitz, a U.S. Department of Agriculture research leader, said trees are sampled with an instrument that measures photosynthesis. The idea is to find unique individuals that maintain basic functions under brutal heat conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, she said, the project, led by researchers \u003ca href=\"https://mcelrone.ucdavis.edu/people/andrew-j-mcelrone\">Andrew McElrone\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://mcelrone.ucdavis.edu/people/mina-momayyezi\">Mina Momayyezi\u003c/a>, might be expanded to include grapes, which are highly prone to heat damage, as well as pistachios and almonds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heinitz said much of the research aims to create hardier root systems, which can protect the trees against soil pathogens, salts and other stressors. However, breeding \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/09/california-drought-farmers/\">drought resilience\u003c/a> into California’s major crops may be a more elusive goal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Drought tolerance is a really tough nut to crack, because it doesn’t just involve roots — it involves every system of the plant,” Heinitz said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982676\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982676\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A man uses a sensor on a leaf of an almond tree. \" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Researcher Andrew McElrone uses a porometer on an almond tree leaf at the Wolfskill Experimental Orchards near Winters. \u003ccite>(Rahul Lal/CalMatters)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>California’s subtropical future?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The winter of 2023 was an unusually cold one, but it hardly suggests a trend toward nut-friendly weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said last month that the low temperatures of the past several months were “a fluke” amid a long-term trajectory of increasingly warm winters. In fact, he said, “this may well be the coldest winter that some places will see now for the rest of our lives.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If true, that could mean smooth sailing for Chiles Wilson Jr. and his family. A fifth-generation Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta farmer, Wilson has planted thousands of avocado trees of a dozen varieties near Walnut Grove and Cortland. Now the fruit, harvested almost year-round, is a key component of the family’s fruit-packing company, \u003ca href=\"https://www.rivermaid.com/\">Rivermaid\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most California avocados are grown between San Diego and Santa Barbara, covering nearly 50,000 acres and producing more than $300 million in direct farm sales.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wilson recalls that when he pitched the avocado idea to his family nearly a decade ago, they discouraged him.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They said, ‘Nah, they won’t produce here,’” he said. “And I said, ‘But that one does.’” He pointed to a large, fruit-laden avocado tree within sight of the farm’s main office. They gave it a shot, planting more than 600 avocado trees per acre.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wilson knows, even in an era of warming, that his avocado orchards are a gamble. “We’re one killer freeze away from being wiped out,” Wilson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, this winter, the temperature dipped below freezing 16 times in the Wilsons’ avocado groves, yet the trees survived and are producing fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982677\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982677\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Avocados seen hanging from a tree.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Gragg holds Pinkerton avocados that he grows in the Sacramento Valley. \u003ccite>(Rahul Lal/CalMatters)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Still other fruits, barely known to most Americans, could rise to greatness in a warmer California. Charlie Lucero, a home orchardist in Menlo Park, is helping introduce Californians to yangmei. Lychee-like red orbs with pits inside like a cherry and a taste like pomegranate and pine resin, yangmei are typically grown in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now Lucero is serving as a consultant and marketer for several Northern California growers who are preparing to harvest their second crop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lucero said the fruit — a relative of the bayberry — has “zero chill requirement” and is also resistant to fungi and bacteria that can plague stone fruit growers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we get a late rain, it doesn’t hurt us,” Lucero said of his small yangmei collaborative, called \u003ca href=\"http://calmei-yangmei.com/\">Calmei\u003c/a>. “These trees are well-suited for California, where the weather is becoming less predictable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lucero said they’ve been retailing for about $60 a pound. Last year’s crop totaled about 2.5 tons; this year, he expects about twice that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An orchard project near Santa Cruz offers another glimpse into California’s possible future of farming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nate Blackmore of \u003ca href=\"https://www.wildlandsplants.com/\">Wildlands Farm and Nursery\u003c/a> is planting several acres with subtropical fruits, mostly from Central and South America: white sapote, ice cream bean, cherimoya, uvaia, dragon fruit and guabiroba.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The main attraction of his up-and-coming orchard will be \u003ca href=\"https://www.cbi.eu/market-information/honey-sweeteners/lucuma\">lucuma\u003c/a> trees. Native to western South America, lucuma resembles a round avocado with a pointed bottom, with mealy, sweet flesh like a yam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All these species are tolerant of frost — but just barely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s so scary having all these subtropical fruit trees, and wondering how many would survive a bad freeze,” Blackmore said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet another tropical crop could gain an advantage from California’s warming climate: coffee.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s being grown at orchards in Santa Barbara, Ventura and San Diego counties, and it’s not cheap: One company is selling organic coffee beans for \u003ca href=\"https://frinjcoffee.com/product/good-land-organics-geisha-3/\">$286 per pound\u003c/a>. But the trees are hardly sustainable in those regions, which are reliant on water imported from Northern California and the Colorado River: Watering them takes at least \u003ca href=\"https://www.britannica.com/topic/coffee-production\">several feet of water\u003c/a> per year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another tropical fruit more suitable for drought-prone land is the pitaya, or dragon fruit. Grown from tropical cactus plants, it can be farmed in California with as little as 1.5 feet of applied water — a third of what citrus and avocados need, according to Ramiro Lobo, a San Diego County farm adviser with the UC Cooperative Extension program. His program has distributed about 50,000 dragon fruit cactus cuttings to small farmers from San Luis Obispo down to San Diego and at least 1,000 acres are in production.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Dry farming to cope with water scarcity\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Among all the pressures for California farmers, none is so persistent and serious as water supply. The agriculture industry uses about 80% of the water Californians consume. During droughts, farmers — especially those growing some 4 million acres of grapevines and fruit trees — pump water from the ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This has caused thousands of drinking water wells to run dry and land to sink \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/water/2023/02/california-depleted-groundwater-storms/\">as aquifers shrivel\u003c/a>. The state passed a new groundwater law in 2014 that is beginning to take effect, and could force as much as \u003ca href=\"https://www.ppic.org/publication/policy-brief-the-future-of-agriculture-in-the-san-joaquin-valley/\">900,000 acres\u003c/a> of irrigated cropland, mostly in the arid San Joaquin Valley, out of production.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this is inconsequential to farmers like Tristan Benson. Based in western Sonoma County, he practices dry farming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Benson and his partners usually harvest 20 to 30 tons of heirloom wheat and barley from loamy hillsides, selling the grain for use in bread, beer and distilling. To grow these staples, they just need a little rain, forgoing \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/01/colorado-river-water/\">the irrigation that other growers, like those in the Central and Imperial valleys, rely upon\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even through recent droughts, Benson said, he has always pulled in a crop. “The closer to the coast we are, the better we do,” he said. Fields are planted in October or November, and about a week after the first heavy rain, the seeds germinate, and usually the ground stays moist until the summer harvest time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Benson’s methods could be a model for sustainability for other California growers, who have “planted millions of acres of trees that always need water, and our reservoirs have at most a three-year supply,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982678\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982678 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A 40-ish white woman with long, dark brown hair, olive pants, boots, and a mauve long-sleeved top and a purple vest, stands in a grassy, shaded lane between two verdant, leafy rows of trees.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Claire Heinitz, a scientist with the US Department of of Agriculture, helps manage the Wolfskill Experimental Orchards, a collection of thousands of crop varieties used for breeding experiments \u003ccite>(Rahul Lal/CalMatters)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Benson thinks a smart farming model is to grow winter crops without irrigation, and when reservoirs are full — as they are now — plant irrigated fields with annual summer fruits and vegetables. Apples, tomatoes, pears, grapes and potatoes can all be dry-farmed in cooler regions; farther inland and to the south, dry farming is more challenging, at least for most crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Geoff Vanden Heuvel, director of regulatory and economic affairs at the Milk Producers Council, said winter farming of grain and feed crops, with just a few inches of irrigation water, could help feed livestock with less groundwater use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More than a quarter of the state’s feed crops are grown in areas entirely reliant on groundwater, and this dependency will likely translate into fewer California cows in the future, he said. By the 2040s, when the groundwater law takes full effect, dairy herds are expected to drop by about 10%. “That’s about 130,000 fewer cows,” Vanden Heuvel said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ferguson of UC Davis said Central Valley farmers have grown accustomed to harvesting maximum yields because “we had more reliable water. Maybe now, when we don’t have the water or it’s more expensive, they’ll have to settle for a lower yield.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://caes.ucdavis.edu/people/daniel-sumner\">Daniel Sumner\u003c/a>, a UC Davis professor of agricultural and resource economics, said California’s agricultural identity already has changed drastically over time. In its earliest days of statehood, California was a major producer of \u003ca href=\"https://apps1.cdfa.ca.gov/FertilizerResearch/docs/Wheat_Production_CA.pdf\">rain-watered wheat, grown on several million acres (PDF)\u003c/a>. When irrigation became ubiquitous, so did specialty crops that thrive in a hot, dry climate but need water in the summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Almonds now cover more than 1.6 million acres of the Central Valley, and pistachios have seen explosive growth, “from almost nothing to a $2 billion crop in a few decades,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He added that predicting what crops will be trending in California in several decades is impossible, “but it’s hard to picture that we wouldn’t stay a specialty crop producer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Economic turbulence, too\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>It’s not just the changing climate that’s guiding the future of one of California’s top industries. In the decades to come, growers will experience economic shifts, competition from imports and rising labor costs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The increasing minimum wage, for example, has made even some high-value crops, like table olives, unprofitable to grow in California unless machines prune the trees and pick the fruit. \u003ca href=\"https://ucanr.edu/sites/mecholive/Overview_-_Objectives/\">Hand-based labor can suck up 45% to 60% of gross revenue\u003c/a>, largely because olives must be carefully handled.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.atlasbig.com/en-us/countries-olive-production#:~:text=Worldwide%2019%2C464%2C495%20tonnes%20of%20olive%20is%20produced%20per,Morocco%20is%20the%20third%20largest%20producer%20of%20olive.\">Spain, the world’s superproducer of olives\u003c/a>, generates a cheaper product and has forced California growers to adapt, said Dennis Burreson, vice president at the Musco Family Olive Co., based in Tracy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Burreson said machine harvesting is now becoming standard for many tree crops, adding, “eventually, I think hand-harvesting of many orchard crops is going to be in the rearview mirror.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, the state’s mighty walnut industry has been knocked on its side as oversupply and competition from China have sent prices crashing. In 2013, \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/Statistics/PDFs/2022_Ag_Stats_Review.pdf\">a ton of walnuts sold off the farm for $3,700 (PDF)\u003c/a>. Now it’s about $700 per ton. On top of that, growers “are still sitting on 130,000 tons of the 2021 crop,” Verloop, of the California Walnut Board and the California Walnut Commission, said, with some of that excess distributed to food banks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So many walnut growers are now reportedly scheduled to have their trees uprooted and chipped that removal services can’t keep up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sumner said the economic upheaval of the walnut industry “doesn’t look like it’s turning around.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brown suspects that labor costs and land values will be just as strong drivers of agriculture’s evolution as the changing climate. Other regions of the world are producing crops for less, he said, which means California’s specialties will be niche and higher-quality produce.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Whatever is going to be grown in California in 50 years,” he said, “is what can’t be grown elsewhere or what can be grown better here.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "The future of farming in California is changing as the planet warms, altering the rain and heat patterns that guide which crops are grown where. 'We're adjusting for survival,' one grower said.",
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"description": "The future of farming in California is changing as the planet warms, altering the rain and heat patterns that guide which crops are grown where. 'We're adjusting for survival,' one grower said.",
"title": "Mangoes and Agave in the Central Valley? California Farmers Try New Crops to Cope With Climate Change | KQED",
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"headline": "Mangoes and Agave in the Central Valley? California Farmers Try New Crops to Cope With Climate Change",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>In a world of worsening heat waves, flooding, drought, glacial melting, megafires and other calamities of a changing climate, Gary Gragg is an optimist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As California warms, Gragg — a nurseryman, micro-scale farmer and tropical fruit enthusiast — looks forward to the day that he can grow and sell mangoes in Northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’ve been banking on this since I was 10 years old and first heard about global warming,” said Gragg, 54, who has planted several mango trees, among other subtropical trees, in his orchard about 25 miles west of Sacramento.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gragg’s little orchard might be the continent’s northernmost grove of mangoes, which normally are grown in places like Florida, Hawaii and Puerto Rico.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Northern California’s climate, he said, is becoming increasingly suitable for heat-loving, frost-sensitive mango trees, as well as avocados, cherimoyas and tropical palms, a specialty of his plant nursery \u003ca href=\"https://www.goldengatepalms.com/\">Golden Gate Palms\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Climate change isn’t all bad,” Gragg said. “People almost never talk about the positives of global warming, but there will be winners and losers everywhere.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mangoes may never become a mainstream crop in the northern half of California, but change is undoubtedly coming. Hustling to adapt, farmers around the state are experimenting with new, more sustainable crops and varieties bred to better tolerate drought, heat, humidity and other elements of the increasingly unruly climate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Central Valley, farmers are investing in avocados, which are traditionally planted farther south, and \u003ca href=\"https://www.ucdavis.edu/food/news/agave-drought-tolerant-california-crop\">agave\u003c/a>, a drought-resistant succulent grown in Mexico to make tequila.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In Santa Cruz, one grower is trying a tropical exotic, lucuma, that is native to South American regions with mild winters. Others are growing tropical dragon fruit from the Central Coast down to San Diego.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some Sonoma and Napa Valley wineries have planted new vineyards in cooler coastal hills and valleys to escape the extreme heat of inland areas. And several Bay Area farmers have planted yangmei, a delicacy in China that can resist blights that ravage peaches and other popular California crops during rainy springs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Near the town of Linden, farmer Mike Machado, who served in the state Assembly and Senate from 1994 to 2008, is one of many growers in the arid San Joaquin Valley who have replaced some stone fruit and nut trees with olives, historically a minor California crop mostly produced in Mediterranean nations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re adjusting for survival,” Machado said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change essentially means that Southern California’s conditions are creeping north up the coast and into the valley, while Oregon and Washington are becoming more like Northern California. Precipitation, winds, fog and seasonal and daily temperature patterns — all of which determine which crops can be grown where — have all been altered.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With climate change, we’re getting more erratic entries into fall and more erratic entries into spring,” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.plantsciences.ucdavis.edu/people/louise-ferguson\">Louise Ferguson\u003c/a>, a UC Davis plant physiologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers predicted that “\u003ca href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0006166\">climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21st century will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California\u003c/a> … For some crops, production might no longer be possible.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Fruit growers all around the world in the warm regions are worried about” warming trends, particularly in winter, said Eike Luedeling, co-author of the study and professor of horticultural sciences at Germany’s University of Bonn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Davis researchers are at the cutting edge of the push to adapt, working to make California’s lucrative walnut, pistachio and stone fruit orchards more resilient by selectively breeding for heat, disease and drought tolerance.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About three-quarters of the nation’s fruits and nuts are grown in California, but fruit and nut trees are among the most vulnerable crops to climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Luedeling’s research, for example, suggests that high winter temperatures could severely reduce walnut yields about once a decade.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ucanr.edu/?facultyid=26295\">Katherine Jarvis-Shean\u003c/a>, an orchard adviser with the UC Agriculture and Natural Resources program, said that effect will be magnified farther south: “That’s probably one in five years in the southern San Joaquin Valley,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Searching for genetic resilience\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://apps1.cdfa.ca.gov/FertilizerResearch/docs/Pistachio_Production_CA.pdf\">Pistachios have grown to be one of the state’s mightiest crops (PDF)\u003c/a>, with acreage of mature trees now covering more than 400,000 acres. The 2021 harvest totaled about 577,000 tons and was valued at nearly $3 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now crop scientists are working to save these valuable orchards from the effects of warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Warmer winters can cause male varieties to bloom and release pollen too late, after the female flowers have opened. This means less pollination and less fruit, and in 2015 many orchards suffered total crop failure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Patrick Brown, a UC Davis nut crop breeder, said farmers have solved this problem, at least for now, by grafting additional male varieties with different blooming schedules into the groves. “It’s a fairly easy hedge against that problem (of warmer winters),” he said. “No matter when the females bloom, there should be some pollen for them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Breeding programs to reduce nuts’ chill requirements are underway, but Brown said these trees have trade-offs: They tend to wake up earlier from winter dormancy, which can put premature foliage at risk of frost damage and expose young leaves to rainfall that causes blight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brown is now leading a hunt for genetic resistance to walnut blight in the shady groves of the Wolfskill Experimental Orchards, a repository of nearly 9,000 grapevine and tree fruit varieties from around the world. This genetic bank, owned by UC Davis and jointly run with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, includes walnut trees of several species and hundreds of varieties.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brown’s experiment involves showering the walnuts with sprinklers in spring and summer and observing which develop the symptoms of blight — oil-black stains on the leaves and fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>His research is focused on walnut trees grown from \u003ca href=\"https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/the-great-georgian-fruit-hunt-68708316/\">seeds collected in the Republic of Georgia\u003c/a>, where humidity creates conditions amenable to the disease. This likely has created localized genetic resistance — what Brown hopes to find.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It gets pretty hot and humid (in Georgia) during the growing season, and if there’s resistance to blight anywhere, that would probably be a good place to look,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still other problems are emerging as California’s weather patterns grow more erratic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early fall rains have been a problem for walnuts, spoiling ripening fruits. And heat waves — especially when they follow a rain event — can cause fruit to drop or spoil. Almost 40% of last fall’s walnut crop was lost when Central Valley temperatures approached 115 degrees, according to \u003ca href=\"https://walnuts.org/news/robert-verloop-named-executive-director-and-ceo-for-the-california-walnut-board-and-california-walnut-commission/\">Robert Verloop\u003c/a>, executive director of the California Walnut Board and the California Walnut Commission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Walnut growers “are worried about heat waves, and they should be,” Jarvis-Shean said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another UC Davis study at the Wolfskill orchards aims to identify genes for heat tolerance in European walnut trees. Claire Heinitz, a U.S. Department of Agriculture research leader, said trees are sampled with an instrument that measures photosynthesis. The idea is to find unique individuals that maintain basic functions under brutal heat conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, she said, the project, led by researchers \u003ca href=\"https://mcelrone.ucdavis.edu/people/andrew-j-mcelrone\">Andrew McElrone\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://mcelrone.ucdavis.edu/people/mina-momayyezi\">Mina Momayyezi\u003c/a>, might be expanded to include grapes, which are highly prone to heat damage, as well as pistachios and almonds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heinitz said much of the research aims to create hardier root systems, which can protect the trees against soil pathogens, salts and other stressors. However, breeding \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/09/california-drought-farmers/\">drought resilience\u003c/a> into California’s major crops may be a more elusive goal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Drought tolerance is a really tough nut to crack, because it doesn’t just involve roots — it involves every system of the plant,” Heinitz said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982676\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982676\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A man uses a sensor on a leaf of an almond tree. \" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-16-CM.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Researcher Andrew McElrone uses a porometer on an almond tree leaf at the Wolfskill Experimental Orchards near Winters. \u003ccite>(Rahul Lal/CalMatters)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>California’s subtropical future?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The winter of 2023 was an unusually cold one, but it hardly suggests a trend toward nut-friendly weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said last month that the low temperatures of the past several months were “a fluke” amid a long-term trajectory of increasingly warm winters. In fact, he said, “this may well be the coldest winter that some places will see now for the rest of our lives.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If true, that could mean smooth sailing for Chiles Wilson Jr. and his family. A fifth-generation Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta farmer, Wilson has planted thousands of avocado trees of a dozen varieties near Walnut Grove and Cortland. Now the fruit, harvested almost year-round, is a key component of the family’s fruit-packing company, \u003ca href=\"https://www.rivermaid.com/\">Rivermaid\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most California avocados are grown between San Diego and Santa Barbara, covering nearly 50,000 acres and producing more than $300 million in direct farm sales.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wilson recalls that when he pitched the avocado idea to his family nearly a decade ago, they discouraged him.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They said, ‘Nah, they won’t produce here,’” he said. “And I said, ‘But that one does.’” He pointed to a large, fruit-laden avocado tree within sight of the farm’s main office. They gave it a shot, planting more than 600 avocado trees per acre.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wilson knows, even in an era of warming, that his avocado orchards are a gamble. “We’re one killer freeze away from being wiped out,” Wilson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, this winter, the temperature dipped below freezing 16 times in the Wilsons’ avocado groves, yet the trees survived and are producing fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982677\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982677\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Avocados seen hanging from a tree.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-13-CM.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Gragg holds Pinkerton avocados that he grows in the Sacramento Valley. \u003ccite>(Rahul Lal/CalMatters)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Still other fruits, barely known to most Americans, could rise to greatness in a warmer California. Charlie Lucero, a home orchardist in Menlo Park, is helping introduce Californians to yangmei. Lychee-like red orbs with pits inside like a cherry and a taste like pomegranate and pine resin, yangmei are typically grown in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now Lucero is serving as a consultant and marketer for several Northern California growers who are preparing to harvest their second crop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lucero said the fruit — a relative of the bayberry — has “zero chill requirement” and is also resistant to fungi and bacteria that can plague stone fruit growers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we get a late rain, it doesn’t hurt us,” Lucero said of his small yangmei collaborative, called \u003ca href=\"http://calmei-yangmei.com/\">Calmei\u003c/a>. “These trees are well-suited for California, where the weather is becoming less predictable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lucero said they’ve been retailing for about $60 a pound. Last year’s crop totaled about 2.5 tons; this year, he expects about twice that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An orchard project near Santa Cruz offers another glimpse into California’s possible future of farming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nate Blackmore of \u003ca href=\"https://www.wildlandsplants.com/\">Wildlands Farm and Nursery\u003c/a> is planting several acres with subtropical fruits, mostly from Central and South America: white sapote, ice cream bean, cherimoya, uvaia, dragon fruit and guabiroba.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The main attraction of his up-and-coming orchard will be \u003ca href=\"https://www.cbi.eu/market-information/honey-sweeteners/lucuma\">lucuma\u003c/a> trees. Native to western South America, lucuma resembles a round avocado with a pointed bottom, with mealy, sweet flesh like a yam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All these species are tolerant of frost — but just barely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s so scary having all these subtropical fruit trees, and wondering how many would survive a bad freeze,” Blackmore said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet another tropical crop could gain an advantage from California’s warming climate: coffee.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s being grown at orchards in Santa Barbara, Ventura and San Diego counties, and it’s not cheap: One company is selling organic coffee beans for \u003ca href=\"https://frinjcoffee.com/product/good-land-organics-geisha-3/\">$286 per pound\u003c/a>. But the trees are hardly sustainable in those regions, which are reliant on water imported from Northern California and the Colorado River: Watering them takes at least \u003ca href=\"https://www.britannica.com/topic/coffee-production\">several feet of water\u003c/a> per year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another tropical fruit more suitable for drought-prone land is the pitaya, or dragon fruit. Grown from tropical cactus plants, it can be farmed in California with as little as 1.5 feet of applied water — a third of what citrus and avocados need, according to Ramiro Lobo, a San Diego County farm adviser with the UC Cooperative Extension program. His program has distributed about 50,000 dragon fruit cactus cuttings to small farmers from San Luis Obispo down to San Diego and at least 1,000 acres are in production.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Dry farming to cope with water scarcity\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Among all the pressures for California farmers, none is so persistent and serious as water supply. The agriculture industry uses about 80% of the water Californians consume. During droughts, farmers — especially those growing some 4 million acres of grapevines and fruit trees — pump water from the ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This has caused thousands of drinking water wells to run dry and land to sink \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/water/2023/02/california-depleted-groundwater-storms/\">as aquifers shrivel\u003c/a>. The state passed a new groundwater law in 2014 that is beginning to take effect, and could force as much as \u003ca href=\"https://www.ppic.org/publication/policy-brief-the-future-of-agriculture-in-the-san-joaquin-valley/\">900,000 acres\u003c/a> of irrigated cropland, mostly in the arid San Joaquin Valley, out of production.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this is inconsequential to farmers like Tristan Benson. Based in western Sonoma County, he practices dry farming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Benson and his partners usually harvest 20 to 30 tons of heirloom wheat and barley from loamy hillsides, selling the grain for use in bread, beer and distilling. To grow these staples, they just need a little rain, forgoing \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/01/colorado-river-water/\">the irrigation that other growers, like those in the Central and Imperial valleys, rely upon\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even through recent droughts, Benson said, he has always pulled in a crop. “The closer to the coast we are, the better we do,” he said. Fields are planted in October or November, and about a week after the first heavy rain, the seeds germinate, and usually the ground stays moist until the summer harvest time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Benson’s methods could be a model for sustainability for other California growers, who have “planted millions of acres of trees that always need water, and our reservoirs have at most a three-year supply,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982678\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982678 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A 40-ish white woman with long, dark brown hair, olive pants, boots, and a mauve long-sleeved top and a purple vest, stands in a grassy, shaded lane between two verdant, leafy rows of trees.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/05042023-Experimental-Farms-RL-19-CM.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Claire Heinitz, a scientist with the US Department of of Agriculture, helps manage the Wolfskill Experimental Orchards, a collection of thousands of crop varieties used for breeding experiments \u003ccite>(Rahul Lal/CalMatters)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Benson thinks a smart farming model is to grow winter crops without irrigation, and when reservoirs are full — as they are now — plant irrigated fields with annual summer fruits and vegetables. Apples, tomatoes, pears, grapes and potatoes can all be dry-farmed in cooler regions; farther inland and to the south, dry farming is more challenging, at least for most crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Geoff Vanden Heuvel, director of regulatory and economic affairs at the Milk Producers Council, said winter farming of grain and feed crops, with just a few inches of irrigation water, could help feed livestock with less groundwater use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More than a quarter of the state’s feed crops are grown in areas entirely reliant on groundwater, and this dependency will likely translate into fewer California cows in the future, he said. By the 2040s, when the groundwater law takes full effect, dairy herds are expected to drop by about 10%. “That’s about 130,000 fewer cows,” Vanden Heuvel said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ferguson of UC Davis said Central Valley farmers have grown accustomed to harvesting maximum yields because “we had more reliable water. Maybe now, when we don’t have the water or it’s more expensive, they’ll have to settle for a lower yield.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://caes.ucdavis.edu/people/daniel-sumner\">Daniel Sumner\u003c/a>, a UC Davis professor of agricultural and resource economics, said California’s agricultural identity already has changed drastically over time. In its earliest days of statehood, California was a major producer of \u003ca href=\"https://apps1.cdfa.ca.gov/FertilizerResearch/docs/Wheat_Production_CA.pdf\">rain-watered wheat, grown on several million acres (PDF)\u003c/a>. When irrigation became ubiquitous, so did specialty crops that thrive in a hot, dry climate but need water in the summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Almonds now cover more than 1.6 million acres of the Central Valley, and pistachios have seen explosive growth, “from almost nothing to a $2 billion crop in a few decades,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He added that predicting what crops will be trending in California in several decades is impossible, “but it’s hard to picture that we wouldn’t stay a specialty crop producer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Economic turbulence, too\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>It’s not just the changing climate that’s guiding the future of one of California’s top industries. In the decades to come, growers will experience economic shifts, competition from imports and rising labor costs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The increasing minimum wage, for example, has made even some high-value crops, like table olives, unprofitable to grow in California unless machines prune the trees and pick the fruit. \u003ca href=\"https://ucanr.edu/sites/mecholive/Overview_-_Objectives/\">Hand-based labor can suck up 45% to 60% of gross revenue\u003c/a>, largely because olives must be carefully handled.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.atlasbig.com/en-us/countries-olive-production#:~:text=Worldwide%2019%2C464%2C495%20tonnes%20of%20olive%20is%20produced%20per,Morocco%20is%20the%20third%20largest%20producer%20of%20olive.\">Spain, the world’s superproducer of olives\u003c/a>, generates a cheaper product and has forced California growers to adapt, said Dennis Burreson, vice president at the Musco Family Olive Co., based in Tracy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Burreson said machine harvesting is now becoming standard for many tree crops, adding, “eventually, I think hand-harvesting of many orchard crops is going to be in the rearview mirror.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, the state’s mighty walnut industry has been knocked on its side as oversupply and competition from China have sent prices crashing. In 2013, \u003ca href=\"https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/Statistics/PDFs/2022_Ag_Stats_Review.pdf\">a ton of walnuts sold off the farm for $3,700 (PDF)\u003c/a>. Now it’s about $700 per ton. On top of that, growers “are still sitting on 130,000 tons of the 2021 crop,” Verloop, of the California Walnut Board and the California Walnut Commission, said, with some of that excess distributed to food banks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So many walnut growers are now reportedly scheduled to have their trees uprooted and chipped that removal services can’t keep up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sumner said the economic upheaval of the walnut industry “doesn’t look like it’s turning around.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brown suspects that labor costs and land values will be just as strong drivers of agriculture’s evolution as the changing climate. Other regions of the world are producing crops for less, he said, which means California’s specialties will be niche and higher-quality produce.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Whatever is going to be grown in California in 50 years,” he said, “is what can’t be grown elsewhere or what can be grown better here.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "'We're Not Prepared': Experts Call for Doubling Levee Protections as California Faces Increasing Floods",
"headTitle": "‘We’re Not Prepared’: Experts Call for Doubling Levee Protections as California Faces Increasing Floods | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>California water experts and environmental justice advocates are calling for state leaders to mandate that new levees be built with double the federal required protection to withstand the increasingly severe storms caused, in part, by human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California’s levee protection regulations are not uniform; the state’s seemingly endless dikes and causeways are overseen by a patchwork of widely varying rules. Some communities like Pajaro in Monterey County, which was swamped by floodwaters this year, are protected only against smaller storms that happen every eight years, while levees protecting urban areas of the Central Valley are bolstered against much more powerful storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size='small' align='left' citation=\"Sona Mohnot, director of climate equity and climate resilience, The Greenlining Institute\"]‘It’s a climate justice issue to protect a community from storms, period, especially the larger storms. If this is the opportunity to protect the people, then I would want it to be protected to the maximum extent possible.’[/pullquote]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeffery Mount, senior fellow specializing in water at the Public Policy Institute of California, said that the bare-minimum standard for protection everywhere in the state should be based on the likelihood of a 1-in-200-year storm, which has a 0.5% chance of happening in any given year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Heads will explode when [planners] hear that recommendation,” said Mount in an email. “The reason I suggest it is simple: There is no way most poor communities could afford something like that, so there has to be a social justice element built in.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state has no consistent mandate. Most of the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://lao.ca.gov/publications/report/3571\">more than 20,000 miles of flood banks and channels\u003c/a> are operated by local governments, and many miles are on unregulated private land. Levees under the Federal Emergency Management Agency must protect against a 100-year flood or a 1% chance of one occurring in any given year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Put in terms of a common homeowner’s 30-year mortgage, there’s a 1-in-4 chance a house will flood during that time with that level of protection. The storms of the future only increase that probability due to the ongoing effects of climate change, Mount said, adding that “most places don’t even have a 100-year level of protection.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The extreme storms of the future will likely be much wetter than Californians experienced this winter. Daniel Swain, climate scientist at UCLA, said the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">storms that burst over California this winter were half as bad in total rain and snowfall as the megastorms predicted in the years to come\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As disruptive as [the storms] have been, they are nowhere near close to the plausible worst-case scenario,” he said. “We’ve gotten a taste of what widespread flooding is this winter, but I do think it’s only a taste.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982522\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/05/02/experts-call-for-doubled-levee-protection-to-battle-climate-change-in-california/allensworth-residents-stave-off-floodwaters/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982522\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982522\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"A road marked with the word STOP in white. The road is submerged in water. A car and a stop sign are enshrouded in water. A grey sky in the background.\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">On March 18, 2023, vehicles were submerged in floodwaters on Avenue 56 near the Central Valley Highway, a few miles north of Allensworth, where residents fortified the levee protecting their neighborhood. \u003ccite>(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>A perfect time for a big water rethink\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>As floodwaters recede, Mount and Brett Sanders, his peer at UC Irvine, said \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-04-07/flood-control-drought-levees-california\">this is the perfect time to rethink and update the state’s aging infrastructure to accommodate the future climate\u003c/a>. Fewer than \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981900/fewer-than-10-of-levees-in-the-greater-bay-area-have-a-federal-risk-rating\">10% of levees in the greater Bay Area have a federal risk rating\u003c/a>, according to a KQED analysis of the National Levee Database.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The recent California storms showed us pretty clearly there’s a lot at risk and systems we think are there to protect us may not perform as we expect,” said Sanders, an engineering professor, of levees across the Central Valley and Central Coast that failed during winter storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a switch to a higher level of protection must start with conversations locally with the people most affected by flooding, Sanders said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those at risk should be involved in the planning process,” he said. “What we’ve tended to see in the past are projects designed by those with greater resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sanders said because no mound of dirt is designed to protect a community completely, legislation should include funding to ensure that when a levee fails or is overtopped, the people, regardless of socioeconomic status, have immediate access to resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There will always be floods that are beyond the capacity of systems,” he said. “So, are we doing what we need to do to protect even those that aren’t protected?”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Increasing levee protections is a climate justice issue, say advocates\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The levee that burst in March near Pajaro in Monterey County, temporarily displacing thousands of people, was built to protect the area from storms at about an eight-year frequency. A future levee there is limited in its protective scope to the 1-in-100-year storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Nobody is fully grasping what is in store in terms of climate impacts,” said Nancy Faulstich, executive director of Regeneración, Pájaro Valley Climate Action. “We’re not prepared, and the expense of accommodating ever-increasing levels of damage from ever-increasing storms will be astronomical.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A small or medium-sized storm could overwhelm the system as it is today, said Mark Strudley, executive director for the Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The bottom line is it needs to be built very quickly,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Officials are supposed to break ground on a levee upgrade as soon as next year, a project jointly funded by local, state and federal governments that would bring the levee up to a 1-in-100-year storm protection. But it will take about a decade to build.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982523\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/05/02/experts-call-for-doubled-levee-protection-to-battle-climate-change-in-california/us-weather-california-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982523\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982523 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"A view of mostly brown water amid green trees, with white tented farmland on the opposite sideway of a roadway unaffected by the flooding.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This aerial view shows the broken levee in Pajaro on March 13, 2023.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Strudley said that altering the more-than-$500-million project with more protections would take years and, in the meantime, keep this lower-income community in the path of floodwaters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It has been a real struggle to get this project developed,” he said. “Another more affluent community would have had a higher prioritization in terms of funding just by virtue of higher property values.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In some areas the levee will be built wider and, in other parts, taller to withstand more water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s not a tremendous benefit to the community by further delaying the process by trying to get a 200-year-level protection,” he said. “What’s important to us is to protect against climate change but also to simply build this project that we have in front of us right now because it affords that protection.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The levee project is designed for a wide range of flooding scenarios, said Stu Townsley, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers deputy district engineer for project management for the San Francisco region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no way that you can build a levee system that will protect any community from the biggest of big storms in the future,” he said. “It’s just financially and, in many cases, physically infeasible.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said even the small storms of the future could cause anyone living in a floodplain “to get wet.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But for Sona Mohnot, director of climate equity and climate resilience for the policy and advocacy group The Greenlining Institute, not building the Pajaro levee to withstand the extreme storms of the future only increases the likelihood of the inevitable: another disastrous flood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a climate justice issue to protect a community from storms, period, especially the larger storms,” she said. “If this is the opportunity to protect the people, then I would want it to be protected to the maximum extent possible.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982521\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/05/02/experts-call-for-doubled-levee-protection-to-battle-climate-change-in-california/atmospheric-river-flooding-in-san-joaquin-county-of-california/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982521\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982521\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"Houses surrounded by dark green water. Water submerges the ground and a blue and white sky are above. \" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An aerial view shows homes underwater after levee fails in Manteca of San Joaquin County on March 21, 2023. \u003ccite>(Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>The Legislature has failed to bolster flood protections statewide before\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The state Legislature has the power to bolster flood protections, but it will take bold moves. Mount said he is unaware of any effort by state lawmakers to raise the standard, even as a rapidly warming state has had to shell out billions of dollars in flood damages this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I would love to see a long-range look on the part of the Legislature, which acknowledges climate change and its increasing risk, basically by setting a [new] standard statewide,” he said. But he doesn’t expect it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s terrible to say, but I don’t think we had enough damage this year,” he said. “I don’t know if it was enough to get the Legislature off the dime on this to begin to act on it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Back in the early aughts, during the Schwarzenegger administration, legislators pushed to double the federal standard for most non-federal levees across California to protect against future climate woes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It was prescient. Nobody else was doing that,” said Mount. “Urban areas just hated it because it was going to be expensive.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The South Coast and Bay Area folks went nuts because their systems as they’re designed would have to be completely overhauled,” he said. “We’re talking many billions of dollars to do such a thing and they didn’t want to be saddled with that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A final version of the legislation only applied \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Flood-Management/Flood-Planning-and-Studies/Central-Valley-Flood-Protection-Plan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to densely packed urban areas of the Central Valley\u003c/a>, leaving the rest of the state to come up with its own standards.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "California water experts and environmental justice advocates are pressing the state to adopt a bare-minimum protection standard for all its levees, doubling what the federal government now asks.",
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"description": "California water experts and environmental justice advocates are pressing the state to adopt a bare-minimum protection standard for all its levees, doubling what the federal government now asks.",
"title": "'We're Not Prepared': Experts Call for Doubling Levee Protections as California Faces Increasing Floods | KQED",
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"headline": "'We're Not Prepared': Experts Call for Doubling Levee Protections as California Faces Increasing Floods",
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"subhead": "California water experts and environmental justice advocates are pressing the state to adopt a bare minimum protection standard for all its levees doubling what the federal government now asks. They recommend a social justice element is included so that poor communities can benefit from the increased security.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>California water experts and environmental justice advocates are calling for state leaders to mandate that new levees be built with double the federal required protection to withstand the increasingly severe storms caused, in part, by human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California’s levee protection regulations are not uniform; the state’s seemingly endless dikes and causeways are overseen by a patchwork of widely varying rules. Some communities like Pajaro in Monterey County, which was swamped by floodwaters this year, are protected only against smaller storms that happen every eight years, while levees protecting urban areas of the Central Valley are bolstered against much more powerful storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "‘It’s a climate justice issue to protect a community from storms, period, especially the larger storms. If this is the opportunity to protect the people, then I would want it to be protected to the maximum extent possible.’",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeffery Mount, senior fellow specializing in water at the Public Policy Institute of California, said that the bare-minimum standard for protection everywhere in the state should be based on the likelihood of a 1-in-200-year storm, which has a 0.5% chance of happening in any given year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Heads will explode when [planners] hear that recommendation,” said Mount in an email. “The reason I suggest it is simple: There is no way most poor communities could afford something like that, so there has to be a social justice element built in.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state has no consistent mandate. Most of the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://lao.ca.gov/publications/report/3571\">more than 20,000 miles of flood banks and channels\u003c/a> are operated by local governments, and many miles are on unregulated private land. Levees under the Federal Emergency Management Agency must protect against a 100-year flood or a 1% chance of one occurring in any given year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Put in terms of a common homeowner’s 30-year mortgage, there’s a 1-in-4 chance a house will flood during that time with that level of protection. The storms of the future only increase that probability due to the ongoing effects of climate change, Mount said, adding that “most places don’t even have a 100-year level of protection.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The extreme storms of the future will likely be much wetter than Californians experienced this winter. Daniel Swain, climate scientist at UCLA, said the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">storms that burst over California this winter were half as bad in total rain and snowfall as the megastorms predicted in the years to come\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As disruptive as [the storms] have been, they are nowhere near close to the plausible worst-case scenario,” he said. “We’ve gotten a taste of what widespread flooding is this winter, but I do think it’s only a taste.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982522\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/05/02/experts-call-for-doubled-levee-protection-to-battle-climate-change-in-california/allensworth-residents-stave-off-floodwaters/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982522\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982522\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"A road marked with the word STOP in white. The road is submerged in water. A car and a stop sign are enshrouded in water. A grey sky in the background.\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248893678.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">On March 18, 2023, vehicles were submerged in floodwaters on Avenue 56 near the Central Valley Highway, a few miles north of Allensworth, where residents fortified the levee protecting their neighborhood. \u003ccite>(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>A perfect time for a big water rethink\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>As floodwaters recede, Mount and Brett Sanders, his peer at UC Irvine, said \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-04-07/flood-control-drought-levees-california\">this is the perfect time to rethink and update the state’s aging infrastructure to accommodate the future climate\u003c/a>. Fewer than \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981900/fewer-than-10-of-levees-in-the-greater-bay-area-have-a-federal-risk-rating\">10% of levees in the greater Bay Area have a federal risk rating\u003c/a>, according to a KQED analysis of the National Levee Database.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The recent California storms showed us pretty clearly there’s a lot at risk and systems we think are there to protect us may not perform as we expect,” said Sanders, an engineering professor, of levees across the Central Valley and Central Coast that failed during winter storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a switch to a higher level of protection must start with conversations locally with the people most affected by flooding, Sanders said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those at risk should be involved in the planning process,” he said. “What we’ve tended to see in the past are projects designed by those with greater resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sanders said because no mound of dirt is designed to protect a community completely, legislation should include funding to ensure that when a levee fails or is overtopped, the people, regardless of socioeconomic status, have immediate access to resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There will always be floods that are beyond the capacity of systems,” he said. “So, are we doing what we need to do to protect even those that aren’t protected?”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Increasing levee protections is a climate justice issue, say advocates\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The levee that burst in March near Pajaro in Monterey County, temporarily displacing thousands of people, was built to protect the area from storms at about an eight-year frequency. A future levee there is limited in its protective scope to the 1-in-100-year storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Nobody is fully grasping what is in store in terms of climate impacts,” said Nancy Faulstich, executive director of Regeneración, Pájaro Valley Climate Action. “We’re not prepared, and the expense of accommodating ever-increasing levels of damage from ever-increasing storms will be astronomical.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A small or medium-sized storm could overwhelm the system as it is today, said Mark Strudley, executive director for the Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The bottom line is it needs to be built very quickly,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Officials are supposed to break ground on a levee upgrade as soon as next year, a project jointly funded by local, state and federal governments that would bring the levee up to a 1-in-100-year storm protection. But it will take about a decade to build.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982523\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/05/02/experts-call-for-doubled-levee-protection-to-battle-climate-change-in-california/us-weather-california-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982523\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982523 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"A view of mostly brown water amid green trees, with white tented farmland on the opposite sideway of a roadway unaffected by the flooding.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1248253330.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This aerial view shows the broken levee in Pajaro on March 13, 2023.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Strudley said that altering the more-than-$500-million project with more protections would take years and, in the meantime, keep this lower-income community in the path of floodwaters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It has been a real struggle to get this project developed,” he said. “Another more affluent community would have had a higher prioritization in terms of funding just by virtue of higher property values.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In some areas the levee will be built wider and, in other parts, taller to withstand more water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s not a tremendous benefit to the community by further delaying the process by trying to get a 200-year-level protection,” he said. “What’s important to us is to protect against climate change but also to simply build this project that we have in front of us right now because it affords that protection.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The levee project is designed for a wide range of flooding scenarios, said Stu Townsley, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers deputy district engineer for project management for the San Francisco region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no way that you can build a levee system that will protect any community from the biggest of big storms in the future,” he said. “It’s just financially and, in many cases, physically infeasible.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said even the small storms of the future could cause anyone living in a floodplain “to get wet.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But for Sona Mohnot, director of climate equity and climate resilience for the policy and advocacy group The Greenlining Institute, not building the Pajaro levee to withstand the extreme storms of the future only increases the likelihood of the inevitable: another disastrous flood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a climate justice issue to protect a community from storms, period, especially the larger storms,” she said. “If this is the opportunity to protect the people, then I would want it to be protected to the maximum extent possible.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982521\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/05/02/experts-call-for-doubled-levee-protection-to-battle-climate-change-in-california/atmospheric-river-flooding-in-san-joaquin-county-of-california/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982521\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982521\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"Houses surrounded by dark green water. Water submerges the ground and a blue and white sky are above. \" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/GettyImages-1249040682.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An aerial view shows homes underwater after levee fails in Manteca of San Joaquin County on March 21, 2023. \u003ccite>(Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>The Legislature has failed to bolster flood protections statewide before\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The state Legislature has the power to bolster flood protections, but it will take bold moves. Mount said he is unaware of any effort by state lawmakers to raise the standard, even as a rapidly warming state has had to shell out billions of dollars in flood damages this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I would love to see a long-range look on the part of the Legislature, which acknowledges climate change and its increasing risk, basically by setting a [new] standard statewide,” he said. But he doesn’t expect it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s terrible to say, but I don’t think we had enough damage this year,” he said. “I don’t know if it was enough to get the Legislature off the dime on this to begin to act on it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Back in the early aughts, during the Schwarzenegger administration, legislators pushed to double the federal standard for most non-federal levees across California to protect against future climate woes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It was prescient. Nobody else was doing that,” said Mount. “Urban areas just hated it because it was going to be expensive.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The South Coast and Bay Area folks went nuts because their systems as they’re designed would have to be completely overhauled,” he said. “We’re talking many billions of dollars to do such a thing and they didn’t want to be saddled with that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A final version of the legislation only applied \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Flood-Management/Flood-Planning-and-Studies/Central-Valley-Flood-Protection-Plan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to densely packed urban areas of the Central Valley\u003c/a>, leaving the rest of the state to come up with its own standards.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>The California Air Resources Board approved an ambitious plan today to phase out its diesel truck fleets, from semi-trucks to delivery vans and garbage trucks, despite the opposition of industry groups who said the plan would be near impossible for them to enact.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It is the air board’s latest regulation geared at cleaning up toxic air quality and fighting climate change, and comes a day after the same body passed \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/04/27/1172639598/california-emission-rules-trains-pollution\">first-in-the-nation regulations on diesel trains\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state’s powerful air regulators have been California’s spearpoint in the fight against climate change in recent years, as they’ve charted an ambitious path to siphon down the state’s use of planet-warming fossil fuels over the next two decades, including banning the sale of new gasoline cars after 2035 and forcing the electrification of most of the state’s transportation sector, the largest contributor of carbon emissions in California.[aside postID=science_1982474 hero='https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/RS64748_GettyImages-94155923-qut-1020x680.jpg']Gideon Kracov, a board member and environmental lawyer from Los Angeles, framed the clean-fleet policy as an ambitious capstone for an agency that has passed no shortage of first-in-the-nation climate rules, calling it the “end of the beginning.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Board Chair Liane Randolph said in a statement that California has the technology to build a zero-emission future now and called the new regulations a “reasonable” and “innovative” approach to “clean up the vehicles on our roads and ensure that Californians have the clean air that they want and deserve.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While these 1.8 million trucks represent a tiny fraction of vehicles on the road at just 6%, \u003ca href=\"https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2022-08/ca-clean-trucks-report.pdf\">they are responsible for more than a quarter of the transportation sector’s greenhouse gas pollution (PDF)\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-fleets\">The state’s new regulations are meant to accelerate the use of zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks\u003c/a> in California within the next two decades and will require the electrification by 2035 of highly polluting drayage trucks, which transport shipping containers from ports and rail yards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Board member Tania Pacheco-Werner, who is co-director of a health policy institute at Fresno State, framed the policy as an issue of environmental justice.[pullquote align=\"right\" size=\"medium\" citation=\"Tania Pacheco-Werner, California Air Resources Board member\"]‘Even the air is unequal … Wealthier communities have more resources, green space and built environment to protect them from the harmful impacts of dirty trucks.’[/pullquote]“Even the air is unequal,” she said. “Wealthier communities have more resources, green space and built environment to protect them from the harmful impacts of dirty trucks. Others do not. And we see it in differences in emergency visits and hospitalizations due to respiratory issues for people who live closer to freeways and truck traffic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said the policy will improve their lives “first and foremost, and we should all be very proud of that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During board hearings that spanned two days, industry groups and government agencies fiercely pushed back on the policies, arguing they are too onerous and would drive up costs for Californians.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chris Shimoda, senior vice president of government affairs for the California Trucking Association, told KQED that the state doesn’t have enough charging infrastructure for electric trucks, particularly public charging stations, adding that “nearly 100% of our membership says [the rules] cannot be accomplished.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jim Verburg of the Western States Petroleum Association \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/04/california-phases-out-diesel-trucks/\">told the board\u003c/a> that if businesses couldn’t comply it would “compromise the delivery of essential goods and services to Californians or compromise the state’s economy.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“Even the air is unequal,” she said. “Wealthier communities have more resources, green space and built environment to protect them from the harmful impacts of dirty trucks. Others do not. And we see it in differences in emergency visits and hospitalizations due to respiratory issues for people who live closer to freeways and truck traffic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said the policy will improve their lives “first and foremost, and we should all be very proud of that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During board hearings that spanned two days, industry groups and government agencies fiercely pushed back on the policies, arguing they are too onerous and would drive up costs for Californians.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chris Shimoda, senior vice president of government affairs for the California Trucking Association, told KQED that the state doesn’t have enough charging infrastructure for electric trucks, particularly public charging stations, adding that “nearly 100% of our membership says [the rules] cannot be accomplished.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jim Verburg of the Western States Petroleum Association \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/04/california-phases-out-diesel-trucks/\">told the board\u003c/a> that if businesses couldn’t comply it would “compromise the delivery of essential goods and services to Californians or compromise the state’s economy.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Nuñez Park in San Bernardino boasts a baseball field, swimming pool and playground where the littlest of humans climb, swing and slide. Sometimes, Ma Carmen Gonzalez, who’s lived in the community for 18 years, will stand at its corner and take in the scene.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What she hears, however, are the groans of diesel truck engines, laboring past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On a recent day, she counted 45 big rigs rumbling by in less than 30 minutes. Those trucks, which largely run on diesel, help contribute to \u003ca href=\"https://www.lung.org/research/sota/city-rankings/states/california/san-bernardino\">San Bernardino’s failing grade for air quality\u003c/a>, according to the American Lung Association. It is some of the worst in the nation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have a lot of problems with asthma, cancer, allergies,” said Gonzalez, who is an organizer with the People’s Collective for Environmental Justice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why she’s advocating for \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-fleets\">proposed regulation to accelerate the transition to zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks\u003c/a> in the state within the next two decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The California Air Resources Board will vote on the plan this week, which would phase out diesel truck fleets, from Amazon delivery vans to garbage trucks to big rigs, in an effort to clean up toxic air quality and fight climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trucks only represent 6% of vehicles on the road, but represent a disproportionate amount of emissions,” said Sydney Vergis, who worked on the rules for CARB as a division chief. 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"content": "\u003cp>When wildfires spread through parts of Northern California wine country in 2017, they melted electronics, combusted cars and exploded propane tanks. The fires sent acrid smoke billowing into the sky, its footprint wafting over the state and extending for 500 miles into the Pacific Ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the time, Rebecca Schmidt, a molecular epidemiologist at UC Davis, was working on a study that followed families of children with autism who were expecting another child. When the fires spread, pregnant participants in the research started asking whether they should be worried about the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schmidt and her collaborators didn’t know what to say. There wasn’t much existing research on how wildfire smoke affects pregnancy. “I would have been wondering the same thing,” she said. “We really couldn’t tell them how concerned they needed to be.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She decided to try to find the answers herself. Over the last several years, Schmidt and a team of fellow scientists have collected biological samples like hair, saliva and blood from pregnant people in California to better understand the health effects of smoke exposure on babies and those who birth them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study’s timeline overlapped with numerous huge fires in the state, and researchers are still assessing the results. But the number of participants wasn’t large enough to fully understand the relationship between exposure and birth outcomes or developmental health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, Schmidt and a team of researchers are expanding the scope, examining two decades of statewide health and birth records alongside wildfire smoke data to determine which pockets of California are bearing the brunt of the smoke and what effects that environmental exposure could be having on early life. The results could have wide-reaching implications for locations experiencing similar spikes in hazardous fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s only going to get worse with climate change,” Schmidt said. “Learning about it is relevant for everybody.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team, which includes nine researchers from UC Davis and UCLA, will be led by Schmidt and Miriam Nuño, a UC Davis biostatistician who researches public health and health disparities. In addition to identifying communities where wildfire smoke may be causing harm and analyzing health impacts, the scientists will engage with community members on ways they can better protect themselves, like wearing N95 masks or installing relatively cheap indoor air filters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Nuño and Schmidt have long studied human health. And both grew up in areas where air pollution was a part of daily life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Born and raised in Iowa, Schmidt drove past agricultural fields where pesticides at times hung in the air like a “brown shroud” on her way to school. She lived in the state through graduate school, earning her Ph.D. in epidemiology at the University of Iowa. When she moved to California in 2008, the state was experiencing drought and a devastating fire year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I remember thinking, ‘Is it going to be like this every year?’” she said. “I’ve definitely had to modify my life around smoke exposure.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nuño moved to California from Guadalajara, Mexico, when she was 14, settling in Los Angeles and then the city of Riverside, about 60 miles east. In areas inland of Los Angeles, smog and pollution blow in from the west and sit there, with nearby mountains preventing dispersal. At the time, she didn’t realize poor air quality was a problem there, she said, and she didn’t expect to pursue health-related research.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those clouds of gray smoke — I never grew up realizing that was even an issue,” she said. “Often, you worry about other things, like do you have enough to eat and things like that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nuño studied pure mathematics at UC Riverside, and planned on getting her Ph.D. in applied math and biostatistics, although she couldn’t entirely envision a future limited to studying mathematical concepts. Then, while in graduate school, she attended a lecture on math and HIV modeling. “That was really the change for me,” she said. “I want to do research that people can read about, and it can have some change.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After studying math and computational biology during her Ph.D. work at Cornell University and completing fellowships in biostatistics at the Harvard School of Public Health and UCLA, Nuño increasingly focused her research on real-world health data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When the COVID-19 pandemic arrived in 2020, she began working with the city of Davis to forecast infection rates. It was her “first taste,” she said, of how her skills could help focus resources, like testing and vaccination, to reduce the disproportionate health impacts in underserved communities. Mathematical modeling and statistical analysis are powerful, she said, “but if you’re not looking with the lens of equity and health equity, then you’re missing the picture.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This study on wildfire smoke is Nuño’s first collaboration with Schmidt. Their work will be funded by a $1.35 million grant from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency focused on environmental justice and climate-related health impacts on vulnerable populations and on life stages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To date, only a few studies have looked at the impact of wildfire smoke on birth outcomes, such as a 2022 paper from scientists at Stanford University that \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S001393512101166X?via%3Dihub\">attributed nearly 7,000 preterm births from 2006 to 2012 in California to wildfire smoke exposure\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Past research has largely focused on the years preceding California’s parade of record-breaking wildfires in the last decade. By focusing on a more recent time period that encompasses those extreme fires, the UCLA and UC Davis research may yield different findings from the earlier research, said Amy Padula, an epidemiologist at UCSF’s School of Medicine, who is using California birth records to conduct separate research on wildfire-related air pollution and birth outcomes from 2007 to 2020.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More research is needed, said Nuño, in part because of the size of climate-worsened fires but also because of where they’re burning. As people move into forested areas, and wildfires spread to inhabited zones, the flames are combusting not just trees and vegetation but also homes and all the objects inside them. That changes the chemical makeup of smoke and the dangers of exposure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team is currently mapping the parts of the state that are at high risk for smoke exposure. Then the group will determine where that exposure varies, and how that intersects with race, income level, exposure to pollutants and other factors. In addition to looking at birth weight and gestational age, the team will examine health data on developmental outcomes and autism diagnoses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While data collected from birth records and from measuring wildfire smoke, birth outcomes and later development will guide their work, collaborators are paying close attention to communities where many people spend a lot of time outside, such as agricultural areas where many farmworkers live.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Communities of color and lower-income communities experience disproportionate air pollution, and the team expects the same will be true for wildfire exposure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“All of this is systemic,” said Natalia Deeb-Sossa, sociologist and professor of Chicana/o studies at UC Davis, who is working on the team. “Wildfires are now every year more and more common because of climate change. I believe that is something that is affecting more and more of our more vulnerable communities and populations, and I think it’s really important that we do something about it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Past research has linked air pollution to lower birth weights and preterm births, which can have a negative impact on health later in life. The California study, which will run into 2025, could provide more clarity on the extent to which those effects also result from wildfire smoke, for those inside and outside the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The whole world’s been impacted by wildfire smoke at this point,” Schmidt said. “It’s not easy to run from anymore.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"nprByline": "\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/profile/emma-foehringer-merchant/\">Emma Foehringer Merchant\u003c/a> \u003cbr>Inside Climate News \u003cbr>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>When wildfires spread through parts of Northern California wine country in 2017, they melted electronics, combusted cars and exploded propane tanks. The fires sent acrid smoke billowing into the sky, its footprint wafting over the state and extending for 500 miles into the Pacific Ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the time, Rebecca Schmidt, a molecular epidemiologist at UC Davis, was working on a study that followed families of children with autism who were expecting another child. When the fires spread, pregnant participants in the research started asking whether they should be worried about the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schmidt and her collaborators didn’t know what to say. There wasn’t much existing research on how wildfire smoke affects pregnancy. “I would have been wondering the same thing,” she said. “We really couldn’t tell them how concerned they needed to be.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She decided to try to find the answers herself. Over the last several years, Schmidt and a team of fellow scientists have collected biological samples like hair, saliva and blood from pregnant people in California to better understand the health effects of smoke exposure on babies and those who birth them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study’s timeline overlapped with numerous huge fires in the state, and researchers are still assessing the results. But the number of participants wasn’t large enough to fully understand the relationship between exposure and birth outcomes or developmental health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, Schmidt and a team of researchers are expanding the scope, examining two decades of statewide health and birth records alongside wildfire smoke data to determine which pockets of California are bearing the brunt of the smoke and what effects that environmental exposure could be having on early life. The results could have wide-reaching implications for locations experiencing similar spikes in hazardous fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s only going to get worse with climate change,” Schmidt said. “Learning about it is relevant for everybody.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team, which includes nine researchers from UC Davis and UCLA, will be led by Schmidt and Miriam Nuño, a UC Davis biostatistician who researches public health and health disparities. In addition to identifying communities where wildfire smoke may be causing harm and analyzing health impacts, the scientists will engage with community members on ways they can better protect themselves, like wearing N95 masks or installing relatively cheap indoor air filters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Nuño and Schmidt have long studied human health. And both grew up in areas where air pollution was a part of daily life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Born and raised in Iowa, Schmidt drove past agricultural fields where pesticides at times hung in the air like a “brown shroud” on her way to school. She lived in the state through graduate school, earning her Ph.D. in epidemiology at the University of Iowa. When she moved to California in 2008, the state was experiencing drought and a devastating fire year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I remember thinking, ‘Is it going to be like this every year?’” she said. “I’ve definitely had to modify my life around smoke exposure.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nuño moved to California from Guadalajara, Mexico, when she was 14, settling in Los Angeles and then the city of Riverside, about 60 miles east. In areas inland of Los Angeles, smog and pollution blow in from the west and sit there, with nearby mountains preventing dispersal. At the time, she didn’t realize poor air quality was a problem there, she said, and she didn’t expect to pursue health-related research.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those clouds of gray smoke — I never grew up realizing that was even an issue,” she said. “Often, you worry about other things, like do you have enough to eat and things like that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nuño studied pure mathematics at UC Riverside, and planned on getting her Ph.D. in applied math and biostatistics, although she couldn’t entirely envision a future limited to studying mathematical concepts. Then, while in graduate school, she attended a lecture on math and HIV modeling. “That was really the change for me,” she said. “I want to do research that people can read about, and it can have some change.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After studying math and computational biology during her Ph.D. work at Cornell University and completing fellowships in biostatistics at the Harvard School of Public Health and UCLA, Nuño increasingly focused her research on real-world health data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When the COVID-19 pandemic arrived in 2020, she began working with the city of Davis to forecast infection rates. It was her “first taste,” she said, of how her skills could help focus resources, like testing and vaccination, to reduce the disproportionate health impacts in underserved communities. Mathematical modeling and statistical analysis are powerful, she said, “but if you’re not looking with the lens of equity and health equity, then you’re missing the picture.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This study on wildfire smoke is Nuño’s first collaboration with Schmidt. Their work will be funded by a $1.35 million grant from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency focused on environmental justice and climate-related health impacts on vulnerable populations and on life stages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To date, only a few studies have looked at the impact of wildfire smoke on birth outcomes, such as a 2022 paper from scientists at Stanford University that \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S001393512101166X?via%3Dihub\">attributed nearly 7,000 preterm births from 2006 to 2012 in California to wildfire smoke exposure\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Past research has largely focused on the years preceding California’s parade of record-breaking wildfires in the last decade. By focusing on a more recent time period that encompasses those extreme fires, the UCLA and UC Davis research may yield different findings from the earlier research, said Amy Padula, an epidemiologist at UCSF’s School of Medicine, who is using California birth records to conduct separate research on wildfire-related air pollution and birth outcomes from 2007 to 2020.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More research is needed, said Nuño, in part because of the size of climate-worsened fires but also because of where they’re burning. As people move into forested areas, and wildfires spread to inhabited zones, the flames are combusting not just trees and vegetation but also homes and all the objects inside them. That changes the chemical makeup of smoke and the dangers of exposure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team is currently mapping the parts of the state that are at high risk for smoke exposure. Then the group will determine where that exposure varies, and how that intersects with race, income level, exposure to pollutants and other factors. In addition to looking at birth weight and gestational age, the team will examine health data on developmental outcomes and autism diagnoses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While data collected from birth records and from measuring wildfire smoke, birth outcomes and later development will guide their work, collaborators are paying close attention to communities where many people spend a lot of time outside, such as agricultural areas where many farmworkers live.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Communities of color and lower-income communities experience disproportionate air pollution, and the team expects the same will be true for wildfire exposure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“All of this is systemic,” said Natalia Deeb-Sossa, sociologist and professor of Chicana/o studies at UC Davis, who is working on the team. “Wildfires are now every year more and more common because of climate change. I believe that is something that is affecting more and more of our more vulnerable communities and populations, and I think it’s really important that we do something about it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Past research has linked air pollution to lower birth weights and preterm births, which can have a negative impact on health later in life. The California study, which will run into 2025, could provide more clarity on the extent to which those effects also result from wildfire smoke, for those inside and outside the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The whole world’s been impacted by wildfire smoke at this point,” Schmidt said. “It’s not easy to run from anymore.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "California Overhauls Its Sea Level Rise Plan as Climate Change Reshapes Coastal Life",
"headTitle": "California Overhauls Its Sea Level Rise Plan as Climate Change Reshapes Coastal Life | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Sea level rise lapping over and pushing up groundwater under the California shoreline is the next climate threat in a state already thrashed around by wildfire, drought and deluge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State and federal scientists are preparing \u003ca href=\"https://www.oceansciencetrust.org/projects/slr-update2023/\">a comprehensive assessment of the threat that rising seas pose to California\u003c/a>, updating \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/agenda_items/20180314/Item3_Exhibit-A_OPC_SLR_Guidance-rd3.pdf\">a highly scientific and complicated document from 2018 (PDF)\u003c/a> with the latest science in user-friendly guidance for local leaders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size='small' align='left' citation=\"Patrick Barnard, research scientist, US Geological Survey\"]‘There’s a perception that we’re relatively less at risk than other parts of the country, but we’ve massively built up these extremely low-lying areas. We basically put ourselves in harm’s way.’[/pullquote]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new sea level rise plan will incorporate \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html\">federal climate models from last year\u003c/a> and attempts to compel cities and counties to take ownership of the issue, coordinate and move rapidly to prepare for rising tides at the local level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Currently, state and local agencies use a scattershot range of sea level rise scenarios that forecast 1 foot to more than 1 meter — more than 3 feet — of inundation. The state’s goal with this update is to shore up that messy field, said Dominique Koné, senior science officer with the California Ocean Science Trust.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want to ensure that if [local agencies] are going to be planning in their different ways, they at least are using the same numbers going forward and we want those decisions to be based on credible information,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The draft report, set to publish this summer, will enshrine into California planning for the first time the expectation of roughly 1 foot of sea level rise by 2050, regardless of future emissions reductions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ben Hamlington, research scientist in the Sea Level and Ice group at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, said the state providing this level of certainty should give planners an actionable number to adapt for in the near term.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“All the scenarios point us in that direction,” he said, adding that a foot of sea level rise “is as much as we’ve seen over the past 100 years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, much more is possible: Sea level rise of a meter or more is “certainly on the table,” Hamlington said. “It’s just a matter of when that will potentially happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report will feature as many as five climate scenarios. Researchers said they would almost surely push the worst-case scenarios, 3 to 10 feet of sea level rise, later in this century and even into the next one, a recognition that there is uncertainty as to how fast the world cuts emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982378\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/04/24/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life/pacifica-mobile-home-park/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982378\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982378 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"Mobile homes lined up right on the shoreline, so close that the shadow of the cliff is on the water right below the homes. Waves lapping up over tan sand.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-1020x573.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-1536x863.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-2048x1151.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-1920x1079.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A mobile home park in Pacifica jutting along the coast. \u003ccite>(Jason Doiy/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The update aims to simplify how cities, counties and agencies plan for rising tides by providing clear information about how to prepare for a far wetter future because of human-caused climate change. It will also include other factors like flood hazards from storms, earthquakes, erosion and groundwater rise, said Patrick Barnard, research scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s a perception that we’re relatively less at risk than other parts of the country, but we’ve massively built up these extremely low-lying areas,” he said. “We basically put ourselves in harm’s way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state plans to advise cities, counties and developers to examine each project and location’s sea level rise risk. At places with more exposure and vulnerable communities, or with major infrastructure projects like highways, hospitals and bridges, developers will be asked to bolster sea level rise protections for more intense climate scenarios, said Laura Engeman, coastal resilience specialist with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are in a new future, and everything we do has to be reevaluated consistently,” she said. “The techniques we have used in the past, we don’t quite know how they will perform in the future.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Much of the Bay Area’s low-lying areas built on fill are sinking faster than other areas of California. That means those places may have more effects from sea level rise than others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She advocates for a shift in mindset in how regions prepare for rising tides. Instead of each city or county preparing independently, Engeman argues it’s imperative to tackle sea level rise with a watershed approach where communities adapt together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982383\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/04/24/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life/housing-on-treasure-island-san-francisco-bay-area/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982383\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982383\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"An island lined with tan apartments bordered by green grass. Water in the middleg ground and the skyline of San Francisco in the background.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-1536x863.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-2048x1151.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-1920x1079.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sea levels along coastlines in the US will rise up to 1 foot by the year 2050, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). \u003ccite>(Jason Doiy/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Spurring regional collaboration to prepare for sea level rise\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In an early April meeting, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, or BCDC, previewed a report to come out later this year on the cost of preparing for rising tides. The big finding? BCDC staff tallied all 192 existing and future seawalls, levees, marshes and other adaptation projects along the 400 miles of the bay shoreline and found it will cost an estimated $110 billion by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The region has earmarked just $5.5 billion for the effort, much less than what is needed to adapt the waterline for rising tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More than half of the cost comes from three counties: San Mateo, Marin and Alameda.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan also does not consider the cost of adjusting building codes or strategies like managed retreat — moving people and businesses away from flood zones — which would greatly affect the price of adaptation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982381\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/04/24/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life/us-climate-weather-flood-3/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982381\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982381\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-800x500.jpg\" alt=\"Raised roads cross each other. Water submerges roads under the raised cement byways. A bay and dark green hills are in the background.\" width=\"800\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-800x500.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-1020x638.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-160x100.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-768x480.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-1536x961.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-2048x1281.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-1920x1201.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An aerial picture taken Jan. 3, 2022, shows an intersection completely flooded with ocean water during a king tide in Mill Valley. \u003ccite>(Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But if leaders fail to act, the bill could actually be much higher at around $230 billion, said Zachary Wasserman, BCDC commission chair.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Would you, if you could, spend $110 billion to avoid $230 billion?” he asked. “I think the answer is yes. The challenge, of course, is where [the money] comes from.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>BCDC’s cost estimate is based on 4.9 feet of sea level rise and storm surge by 2050, which is much higher than the state panel of scientists said they would likely recommend as a middle-of-the-road adaptation planning parameter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We haven’t had major events like hurricanes that make sea level rise a visible thing in people’s minds,” said Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation for BCDC. “So we don’t have that sense that it has to happen tomorrow. But we need to have all this in place long before 2050 sea level rise occurs.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This month, San Mateo County — the county with arguably the most risk from rising seas statewide — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982309/san-mateo-countys-new-sea-level-rise-plan-calls-for-a-100-foot-buffer-zone-for-shoreline-development\">proposed a 100-foot buffer zone between future developments and the bay\u003c/a>. The voluntary guidance asks developers to build construction along the county’s 53 miles of waterfront above today’s high tide by around 10 feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’d love to be proven wrong and for somebody to say that OneShoreline protected us too much,” said Len Materman, CEO of OneShoreline, San Mateo County’s flood and sea level rise resiliency district.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These developments that are coming in now or in the next few years are going to lock in what our shoreline looks like,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982384\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/04/24/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life/aerial-over-foster-city-california/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982384\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982384\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"An aerial photo looking down on they San Francisco Bay. A river cuts through white houses and green marshland. Hills and clouds are in the background. \" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Residential communities and the waterways of Foster City, as seen under a dramatic sky. \u003ccite>(Joey Kotifica/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Preparing for 1 foot of sea level rise isn’t enough, experts say\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>But even with this update, some scientists on the state panel said that preparing for only 1 foot of sea level rise by mid-century would be shortsighted. They still need to be convinced the world will reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to prevent the worst-case scenarios.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If all the ice melted in Greenland and Antarctica, there would be more than 200 feet of sea level rise globally — which would swallow much of the Bay Area and could turn San Francisco into an island, said Gary Griggs, distinguished professor of sciences at UC Santa Cruz.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He recognizes that just a couple of feet of sea level rise would cause a global disaster.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m skeptical because of the uncertainties,” said Griggs. “The starting point is people should be concerned rather than going into denial.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other scientists want to make sure that the report doesn’t dilute the message of the impact rising tides will likely have on the most vulnerable Californians. Kristina Hill, director of the Institute of Urban and Regional Development at UC Berkeley, was added to the task force because of her connections with community groups across the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sometimes they think of this as technical work, and they don’t want to share it with environmental justice leaders until it’s done,” she said. “I’m hoping they will invite EJ leaders before it’s done.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill is also pushing for a section within the update focusing on short-term impacts \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1980255/a-lesson-in-discrimination-a-toxic-sea-level-rise-crisis-threatens-west-oakland\">like groundwater rise pushed up by rising tides\u003c/a>, which recent science shows will happen decades before water laps over the shoreline. Her research finds \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981077/state-regulators-scrutinize-climate-plan-for-controversial-richmond-housing-development\">rising groundwater already infiltrates toxic sites around San Francisco Bay\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you can’t prevent the groundwater from rising, what are you going to do?” Hill said. “That’s the conversation I really want to have because it shows that conventional adaptation is not going to be enough. We really just need to start preparing for this potential of between 4 and 10 feet and see who’s ready for what.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Sea level rise lapping over and pushing up groundwater under the California shoreline is the next climate threat in a state already thrashed around by wildfire, drought and deluge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State and federal scientists are preparing \u003ca href=\"https://www.oceansciencetrust.org/projects/slr-update2023/\">a comprehensive assessment of the threat that rising seas pose to California\u003c/a>, updating \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/agenda_items/20180314/Item3_Exhibit-A_OPC_SLR_Guidance-rd3.pdf\">a highly scientific and complicated document from 2018 (PDF)\u003c/a> with the latest science in user-friendly guidance for local leaders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "‘There’s a perception that we’re relatively less at risk than other parts of the country, but we’ve massively built up these extremely low-lying areas. We basically put ourselves in harm’s way.’",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new sea level rise plan will incorporate \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html\">federal climate models from last year\u003c/a> and attempts to compel cities and counties to take ownership of the issue, coordinate and move rapidly to prepare for rising tides at the local level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Currently, state and local agencies use a scattershot range of sea level rise scenarios that forecast 1 foot to more than 1 meter — more than 3 feet — of inundation. The state’s goal with this update is to shore up that messy field, said Dominique Koné, senior science officer with the California Ocean Science Trust.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want to ensure that if [local agencies] are going to be planning in their different ways, they at least are using the same numbers going forward and we want those decisions to be based on credible information,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The draft report, set to publish this summer, will enshrine into California planning for the first time the expectation of roughly 1 foot of sea level rise by 2050, regardless of future emissions reductions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ben Hamlington, research scientist in the Sea Level and Ice group at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, said the state providing this level of certainty should give planners an actionable number to adapt for in the near term.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“All the scenarios point us in that direction,” he said, adding that a foot of sea level rise “is as much as we’ve seen over the past 100 years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, much more is possible: Sea level rise of a meter or more is “certainly on the table,” Hamlington said. “It’s just a matter of when that will potentially happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report will feature as many as five climate scenarios. Researchers said they would almost surely push the worst-case scenarios, 3 to 10 feet of sea level rise, later in this century and even into the next one, a recognition that there is uncertainty as to how fast the world cuts emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982378\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/04/24/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life/pacifica-mobile-home-park/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982378\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982378 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"Mobile homes lined up right on the shoreline, so close that the shadow of the cliff is on the water right below the homes. Waves lapping up over tan sand.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-1020x573.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-1536x863.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-2048x1151.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1375461888-1920x1079.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A mobile home park in Pacifica jutting along the coast. \u003ccite>(Jason Doiy/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The update aims to simplify how cities, counties and agencies plan for rising tides by providing clear information about how to prepare for a far wetter future because of human-caused climate change. It will also include other factors like flood hazards from storms, earthquakes, erosion and groundwater rise, said Patrick Barnard, research scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s a perception that we’re relatively less at risk than other parts of the country, but we’ve massively built up these extremely low-lying areas,” he said. “We basically put ourselves in harm’s way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state plans to advise cities, counties and developers to examine each project and location’s sea level rise risk. At places with more exposure and vulnerable communities, or with major infrastructure projects like highways, hospitals and bridges, developers will be asked to bolster sea level rise protections for more intense climate scenarios, said Laura Engeman, coastal resilience specialist with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are in a new future, and everything we do has to be reevaluated consistently,” she said. “The techniques we have used in the past, we don’t quite know how they will perform in the future.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Much of the Bay Area’s low-lying areas built on fill are sinking faster than other areas of California. That means those places may have more effects from sea level rise than others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She advocates for a shift in mindset in how regions prepare for rising tides. Instead of each city or county preparing independently, Engeman argues it’s imperative to tackle sea level rise with a watershed approach where communities adapt together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982383\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/04/24/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life/housing-on-treasure-island-san-francisco-bay-area/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982383\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982383\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"An island lined with tan apartments bordered by green grass. Water in the middleg ground and the skyline of San Francisco in the background.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-1536x863.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-2048x1151.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1315066305-1920x1079.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sea levels along coastlines in the US will rise up to 1 foot by the year 2050, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). \u003ccite>(Jason Doiy/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Spurring regional collaboration to prepare for sea level rise\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In an early April meeting, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, or BCDC, previewed a report to come out later this year on the cost of preparing for rising tides. The big finding? BCDC staff tallied all 192 existing and future seawalls, levees, marshes and other adaptation projects along the 400 miles of the bay shoreline and found it will cost an estimated $110 billion by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The region has earmarked just $5.5 billion for the effort, much less than what is needed to adapt the waterline for rising tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More than half of the cost comes from three counties: San Mateo, Marin and Alameda.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan also does not consider the cost of adjusting building codes or strategies like managed retreat — moving people and businesses away from flood zones — which would greatly affect the price of adaptation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982381\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/04/24/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life/us-climate-weather-flood-3/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982381\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982381\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-800x500.jpg\" alt=\"Raised roads cross each other. Water submerges roads under the raised cement byways. A bay and dark green hills are in the background.\" width=\"800\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-800x500.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-1020x638.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-160x100.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-768x480.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-1536x961.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-2048x1281.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523011-1920x1201.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An aerial picture taken Jan. 3, 2022, shows an intersection completely flooded with ocean water during a king tide in Mill Valley. \u003ccite>(Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But if leaders fail to act, the bill could actually be much higher at around $230 billion, said Zachary Wasserman, BCDC commission chair.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Would you, if you could, spend $110 billion to avoid $230 billion?” he asked. “I think the answer is yes. The challenge, of course, is where [the money] comes from.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>BCDC’s cost estimate is based on 4.9 feet of sea level rise and storm surge by 2050, which is much higher than the state panel of scientists said they would likely recommend as a middle-of-the-road adaptation planning parameter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We haven’t had major events like hurricanes that make sea level rise a visible thing in people’s minds,” said Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation for BCDC. “So we don’t have that sense that it has to happen tomorrow. But we need to have all this in place long before 2050 sea level rise occurs.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This month, San Mateo County — the county with arguably the most risk from rising seas statewide — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982309/san-mateo-countys-new-sea-level-rise-plan-calls-for-a-100-foot-buffer-zone-for-shoreline-development\">proposed a 100-foot buffer zone between future developments and the bay\u003c/a>. The voluntary guidance asks developers to build construction along the county’s 53 miles of waterfront above today’s high tide by around 10 feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’d love to be proven wrong and for somebody to say that OneShoreline protected us too much,” said Len Materman, CEO of OneShoreline, San Mateo County’s flood and sea level rise resiliency district.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These developments that are coming in now or in the next few years are going to lock in what our shoreline looks like,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982384\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/2023/04/24/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life/aerial-over-foster-city-california/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1982384\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982384\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"An aerial photo looking down on they San Francisco Bay. A river cuts through white houses and green marshland. Hills and clouds are in the background. \" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1439326151.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Residential communities and the waterways of Foster City, as seen under a dramatic sky. \u003ccite>(Joey Kotifica/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Preparing for 1 foot of sea level rise isn’t enough, experts say\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>But even with this update, some scientists on the state panel said that preparing for only 1 foot of sea level rise by mid-century would be shortsighted. They still need to be convinced the world will reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to prevent the worst-case scenarios.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If all the ice melted in Greenland and Antarctica, there would be more than 200 feet of sea level rise globally — which would swallow much of the Bay Area and could turn San Francisco into an island, said Gary Griggs, distinguished professor of sciences at UC Santa Cruz.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He recognizes that just a couple of feet of sea level rise would cause a global disaster.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m skeptical because of the uncertainties,” said Griggs. “The starting point is people should be concerned rather than going into denial.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other scientists want to make sure that the report doesn’t dilute the message of the impact rising tides will likely have on the most vulnerable Californians. Kristina Hill, director of the Institute of Urban and Regional Development at UC Berkeley, was added to the task force because of her connections with community groups across the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sometimes they think of this as technical work, and they don’t want to share it with environmental justice leaders until it’s done,” she said. “I’m hoping they will invite EJ leaders before it’s done.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill is also pushing for a section within the update focusing on short-term impacts \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1980255/a-lesson-in-discrimination-a-toxic-sea-level-rise-crisis-threatens-west-oakland\">like groundwater rise pushed up by rising tides\u003c/a>, which recent science shows will happen decades before water laps over the shoreline. Her research finds \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981077/state-regulators-scrutinize-climate-plan-for-controversial-richmond-housing-development\">rising groundwater already infiltrates toxic sites around San Francisco Bay\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you can’t prevent the groundwater from rising, what are you going to do?” Hill said. “That’s the conversation I really want to have because it shows that conventional adaptation is not going to be enough. We really just need to start preparing for this potential of between 4 and 10 feet and see who’s ready for what.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "San Mateo County’s New Sea Level Rise Plan Calls for a 100-Foot Buffer Zone for Shoreline Development",
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"content": "\u003cp>San Mateo County released first-of-its-kind\u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/planning-guidance/\"> sea level rise guidance\u003c/a> today, a forceful planning document meant to slow a bonanza of shoreline development and protect a dozen communities from climate-driven flooding near San Francisco Bay, including from rising groundwater and catastrophic flooding during storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/OneShoreline-Planning-Guidance-Policy-Draft_04.18.23_PRINT-VERSION-1.pdf\">voluntary guidance (PDF)\u003c/a> asks that any new development along the county’s 53 miles of bayshore be constructed above today’s high tide by around 10 feet in an effort to protect businesses and residents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan would also establish a 100-foot buffer zone between future developments and the bay and set new buildings 35 feet back from creeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size='medium' align='left' citation=\"Len Materman, CEO, OneShoreline\"]‘I’d love to be proven wrong and for somebody to say that OneShoreline protected us too much. Let’s provide too much protection rather than under-protecting people.’[/pullquote]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not familiar with any [other guidance] that’s this specific and this aggressive on climate flooding,” said Len Materman, CEO of \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/\">OneShoreline\u003c/a>, San Mateo County’s flood and sea level rise resiliency district.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The protection standards attempt to safeguard future developments from a far wetter future because of the effects of climate change brought on by humans burning fossil fuels globally.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new guidance could affect developments between Highway 101 and the shoreline in Brisbane, Burlingame, East Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Redwood City and South San Francisco, which are currently in planning. This is an opportunity for developers to adapt their plans for the changing climate, said Materman.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These developments that are coming in now or in the next few years are going to lock in what our shoreline looks like,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.bcdc.ca.gov/cm/2023/04-06-Briefing-Funding-and-Investment-Framework-presentation.pdf\">Bay Area will need to spend $110 billion dollars to adapt to rising tides (PDF)\u003c/a>, according to a new economic study from the Bay Conservation and Development Commission and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agencies estimate the revenue currently available to pay for these adaptation projects at just $5 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>San Mateo plans steps out ahead of California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>San Mateo County’s climate scenario goes beyond state recommendations and what most bay agencies are adapting for. Materman said the county should overprepare for climate change, as it’s one of the most at risk in the state from rising tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’d love to be proven wrong and for somebody to say that OneShoreline protected us too much,” he said. “Let’s provide too much protection rather than under-protecting people when we really see the impacts of climate change today.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The guidance also outlines planning tips for dealing with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979645/see-a-map-of-hazardous-sites-at-risk-from-rising-seas\">contaminated sites near the edge of the bay\u003c/a>, liquefaction risk from earthquakes and underground structures like sewers. It recommends that planners consider future storms — \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000275\">expected to become 37% wetter by the end of the century\u003c/a>, according to Bay Area climate scientists — by making sure that stormwater infrastructure can handle more significant flows.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The recommendations come with \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/sidebar/index.html?appid=ed2a5cb599ca4651bc6a0c3530271905&locale=en\">risk maps\u003c/a> of sea and groundwater rise due to climate change for planners to understand how the two water sources may inundate communities and businesses near the lip of the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982326\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1982326\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-1020x712.jpg\" alt=\"A green map of the southern Bay Area, with a large section of San Mateo's coastline in yellow. \" width=\"640\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-1020x712.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-800x558.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-160x112.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-768x536.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB.jpg 1142w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A screen grab of the county’s sea level rise risk maps.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Materman said anyone who lives or commutes within San Mateo County should care about the risks from climate flooding because a large portion of the infrastructure that supports its bustling cities is along the waterfront.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Let’s use the knowledge that we have about climate change and the bay to make better decisions, and so we don’t lock in these very expensive, difficult problems when we can try to do something about it preemptively,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>San Mateo County released first-of-its-kind\u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/planning-guidance/\"> sea level rise guidance\u003c/a> today, a forceful planning document meant to slow a bonanza of shoreline development and protect a dozen communities from climate-driven flooding near San Francisco Bay, including from rising groundwater and catastrophic flooding during storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/OneShoreline-Planning-Guidance-Policy-Draft_04.18.23_PRINT-VERSION-1.pdf\">voluntary guidance (PDF)\u003c/a> asks that any new development along the county’s 53 miles of bayshore be constructed above today’s high tide by around 10 feet in an effort to protect businesses and residents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan would also establish a 100-foot buffer zone between future developments and the bay and set new buildings 35 feet back from creeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not familiar with any [other guidance] that’s this specific and this aggressive on climate flooding,” said Len Materman, CEO of \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/\">OneShoreline\u003c/a>, San Mateo County’s flood and sea level rise resiliency district.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The protection standards attempt to safeguard future developments from a far wetter future because of the effects of climate change brought on by humans burning fossil fuels globally.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new guidance could affect developments between Highway 101 and the shoreline in Brisbane, Burlingame, East Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Redwood City and South San Francisco, which are currently in planning. This is an opportunity for developers to adapt their plans for the changing climate, said Materman.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These developments that are coming in now or in the next few years are going to lock in what our shoreline looks like,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.bcdc.ca.gov/cm/2023/04-06-Briefing-Funding-and-Investment-Framework-presentation.pdf\">Bay Area will need to spend $110 billion dollars to adapt to rising tides (PDF)\u003c/a>, according to a new economic study from the Bay Conservation and Development Commission and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agencies estimate the revenue currently available to pay for these adaptation projects at just $5 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>San Mateo plans steps out ahead of California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>San Mateo County’s climate scenario goes beyond state recommendations and what most bay agencies are adapting for. Materman said the county should overprepare for climate change, as it’s one of the most at risk in the state from rising tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’d love to be proven wrong and for somebody to say that OneShoreline protected us too much,” he said. “Let’s provide too much protection rather than under-protecting people when we really see the impacts of climate change today.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The guidance also outlines planning tips for dealing with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979645/see-a-map-of-hazardous-sites-at-risk-from-rising-seas\">contaminated sites near the edge of the bay\u003c/a>, liquefaction risk from earthquakes and underground structures like sewers. It recommends that planners consider future storms — \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000275\">expected to become 37% wetter by the end of the century\u003c/a>, according to Bay Area climate scientists — by making sure that stormwater infrastructure can handle more significant flows.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The recommendations come with \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/sidebar/index.html?appid=ed2a5cb599ca4651bc6a0c3530271905&locale=en\">risk maps\u003c/a> of sea and groundwater rise due to climate change for planners to understand how the two water sources may inundate communities and businesses near the lip of the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982326\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1982326\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-1020x712.jpg\" alt=\"A green map of the southern Bay Area, with a large section of San Mateo's coastline in yellow. \" width=\"640\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-1020x712.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-800x558.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-160x112.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-768x536.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB.jpg 1142w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A screen grab of the county’s sea level rise risk maps.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Materman said anyone who lives or commutes within San Mateo County should care about the risks from climate flooding because a large portion of the infrastructure that supports its bustling cities is along the waterfront.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Let’s use the knowledge that we have about climate change and the bay to make better decisions, and so we don’t lock in these very expensive, difficult problems when we can try to do something about it preemptively,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Here's Why Wildfire Experts Are Worried About an EPA Plan for Cleaner Air",
"headTitle": "Here’s Why Wildfire Experts Are Worried About an EPA Plan for Cleaner Air | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Few laws have been as successful, or saved the United States as much money, as the \u003ca href=\"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30853\">Clean Air Act (PDF)\u003c/a>. First enacted in 1955, the act was a response to alarming disasters like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5922205/\">Donora Smog\u003c/a> of 1948 in Western Pennsylvania and 1952’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-london-20615186\">Great Smog of London\u003c/a>, where thick dirty air from factories and vehicles enveloped communities for days and caused widespread deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Congress intended for the act to be frequently reevaluated and, if necessary, updated. The Environmental Protection Agency sets legal limits for how much pollution air districts are allowed to let into the air. Currently, the EPA is proposing tightening the standard for tiny particulates floating in the air, originating from motors, engines and fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Updating and tightening the standard is very popular among public health professionals, air regulators and the environmental justice community, who point to a mountain of evidence that this pollution takes lives early.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California Attorney General Rob Bonta, along \u003ca href=\"https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/attachments/press-docs/2023-03-28%20AGO%20Coalition%20-%20PM%20NAAQS%20Comment%20Letter.pdf\">with 17 other attorneys general, also supports limit tightening (PDF)\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many in the environmental justice community, concerned about the disproportionate air pollution burden that many lower-income communities and communities of color live with, would like to see standards tightened even further. In California, that’s especially true in the San Joaquin Valley and the South Coast Air Basin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We should have had lowered standards years ago. It’s a relief to see it now being proposed,” said Genevieve Amsalem, research and policy director at the Central California Environmental Justice Network. “Any time that you lower that standard, you’re going to be saving lives.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She considers bad air the region’s biggest environmental public health threat, one that especially affects communities of color.[pullquote size='medium' align='left' citation=\"Genevieve Amsalem, research and policy director, Central California Environmental Justice Network\"]‘Everyone knows a parent who has brought their baby, or their 2-year-old, into the ER because they couldn’t breathe. You know, the baby’s turning blue. It’s a story you hear across generations.’[/pullquote]“Everyone knows a parent who has brought their baby, or their 2-year-old, into the ER because they couldn’t breathe. You know, the baby’s turning blue,” Amsalem said. “It’s a story you hear across generations.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Data backs up this impression: Counties in the San Joaquin Valley consistently have among the \u003ca href=\"https://californiahealthline.org/news/dirty-air-and-disasters-sending-kids-to-the-er-for-asthma/\">worst rates of childhood asthma\u003c/a> in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there are worries among the fire science community that the EPA’s proposed rule could have its opposite intended effect. They worry it may leave the state with ultimately worse air in the long run by stifling the use of prescribed fire. The ultimate outcome will affect everyone living in California and beyond.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Wildfire is really challenging the paradigm that is at the core of the Clean Air Act — that emissions can be controlled,” said Michael Wara, an energy and climate scholar at Stanford University in \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uA1wg9yzGxM&t=32s\">a presentation to students and researchers\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Wildfire emissions are not being successfully controlled. They’re growing,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Clean Air Act was written during a time when smokestack air pollution was the key problem standing in the way of healthy air, and the U.S. Forest Service could seemingly put any wildfire out by \u003ca href=\"https://foresthistory.org/research-explore/us-forest-service-history/policy-and-law/fire-u-s-forest-service/u-s-forest-service-fire-suppression/#:~:text=In%201935%2C%20the%20Forest%20Service,eliminate%20fire%20from%20the%20landscape.\">10 a.m. the next day\u003c/a>. All over the country, wildfires bent more or less easily to the will of firefighters, and the big sources of pollution could be regulated at the emission’s source. But that was a different climate reality.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Clean air keeps people out of hospitals\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Today, with \u003ca href=\"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44840/4\">emissions from the worst pollutants down by more than 70% (PDF)\u003c/a>, the EPA estimates \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/benefits-and-costs-clean-air-act-1990-2020-second-prospective-study#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20Clean%20Air,reductions%20in%20ambient%20particulate%20matter\">the Clean Air Act saves 230,000 lives annually\u003c/a> and hundreds of thousands more from asthma, bronchitis and heart attacks. Public health experts estimate the benefits of all these lives saved and hospital visits avoided into the \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/benefits-and-costs-clean-air-act-1970-1990-study-design-and-summary-results\">many trillions of dollars\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wildfires are now a major producer of both carbon emissions and tiny specks of sooty pollutants known as PM 2.5. A 2022 study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29623-8\">wildfire pollution was beginning to reverse decades of clean air gains\u003c/a>. (Researchers at Stanford in 2020 had \u003ca href=\"https://escholarship.org/content/qt5134m9d8/qt5134m9d8.pdf?t=qpc4ro\">similar findings [PDF]\u003c/a>.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA’s plan would update its standard for PM 2.5.[aside label=\"Related Stories\" tag=\"air-quality\"]Shorthand for “particulate matter of 2.5 microns in size or less,” PM 2.5 is a class of pollutants based on dimensions rather than origin or chemical makeup. It would take about 30 of them lined up to cross the width of a human hair. It’s their size that’s the key problem: It allows them to get deep into the lungs and even cross into the bloodstream, causing heart and respiratory problems. In short, it’s a terrible pollutant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Public comment on the proposal closed late last month, and the EPA is now deciding whether and how to implement revisions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA estimates \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/sciencematters/epa-researchers-contribute-american-thoracic-society-workshop-report-wildland-fire\">a third of the PM 2.5 we breathe in this country is from wildfires\u003c/a>. For those in the West during wildfire season, it can be 90%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And if wildfire trends continue and worsen, as climate models suggest they will, then we’ve seen nothing yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To avoid the worst outcomes, Wara of Stanford points to the need to dramatically increase the use of prescribed fire in pyro-adapted landscapes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some of the best hopes that we have for reducing public health impacts from wildfire and [general] impacts from wildfire have to do with substituting prescribed fire emission for high-intensity wildfire emission,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>The rub: Wildfire smoke vs. prescribed fire smoke\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The EPA enforces its clean air standards. If air districts do not achieve these clean-air goals, then the EPA can take over air permitting within a district and even impose a ban on new federal highway grants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, EPA officials recognize that sometimes air districts are out of compliance through no fault of their own. In this case, they are allowed to file for an “exceptional event.” In this bureaucratic process, the “event” is linked to the cause of pollution going over the legal limit. It is meant for events that are unforeseeable and are unlikely to occur in the same location again, like a volcanic explosion. If the link can be made, then emissions from that event can be subtracted from the total, and the air district is no longer in trouble with the EPA.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To use an analogy, if you couldn’t pay off your credit card bill some month because you had an unforeseen emergency expense, this would be the process by which you might convince the credit card company to waive that charge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1970817\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1970817\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"An aerial view shows neighborhoods enshrouded in smoke as the Bobcat Fire advances toward foothill cities and new evacuation order go into effect on September 13, 2020 in Monrovia, California.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An aerial view shows neighborhoods in Monrovia enshrouded in smoke from the Bobcat Fire on Sept. 13, 2020. \u003ccite>(David McNew/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It is a long, technically involved process. A California Air Resources Board (CARB) \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/2020_Northern_California_EE_Full_Demo_Final.pdf\">exceptional events filing (PDF)\u003c/a> for ozone concentrations during the Northern California wildfires of 2020 runs 228 pages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem, as seen by many in the wildfire science community, is that while this process essentially means air districts are not on the hook for wildfire smoke, they are on the hook for prescribed fire smoke. And prescribed fire — the most affordable, effective inoculation against future wildfires — has never been used as a basis for an exceptional event in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But fire scientists and those in fire agencies worry this new rule will stifle the state and federal plans to expand the use of prescribed fire as a core strategy to stem out-of-control wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve got to start doing larger prescribed burns if we want to make a difference to what is actually happening on our landscape,” said Scott Stephens, fire science professor at UC Berkeley. “That just means there’s going to be more smoke.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pro-prescribed-fire groups, including the National Association of Forest Service Retirees, have \u003ca href=\"https://nafsr.org/advocacy/2023/031023%20NAFSR%20response%20to%20EPA%20PM2.5%20rule%20change.pdf\">submitted comments detailing their concern (PDF)\u003c/a> that the proposed rule “will reduce the Nation’s ability to implement strategies intended to reduce unwanted wildfire effects on communities and wildlands, including barriers to increasing the pace and scale of prescribed burning.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1976585\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1998px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1976585\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f.jpg\" alt=\"A firefighter lights a prescribed burn in Humboldt County to reduce the underbrush without killing trees.\" width=\"1998\" height=\"1499\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f.jpg 1998w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1998px) 100vw, 1998px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Prescribed burns, like this one in Humboldt County, reduce the underbrush without destroying trees. \u003ccite>(Lenya Quinn-Davidson/NPR)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A large group of fire specialists, including professors, cultural burners and ecologists, wrote in a comment letter to the EPA that its plan “would put the EPA on the wrong side of policies and actions planned by federal, state, local and Tribal entities to address the wildfire crisis and ultimately, to reduce harmful PM2.5 emissions and impacts by reducing wildfire smoke.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Smoke from prescribed fires is less intense and less damaging than smoke from wildfires. Many scientists view it as \u003ca href=\"https://www.lung.org/policy-advocacy/healthy-air-campaign/prescribed-fire-report#:~:text=Prescribed%20burns%20can%20be%20used,supporting%20ecosystem%20health%20and%20resiliency.\">a protective trade-off\u003c/a> — some pollution now in exchange for greater fire safety (and less pollution) in the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Air districts supportive, with qualifications\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Both the \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/carb-statement-us-epa-proposal-strengthen-health-based-standards-fine-particulate-matter\">California Air Resources Board\u003c/a> and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.baaqmd.gov/~/media/files/communications-and-outreach/publications/news-releases/2023/pmnaaqs_230105_2023_001-pdf.pdf?la=en\">Bay Area Air Quality Management District (PDF)\u003c/a> have submitted comments supporting a tightening of the PM 2.5 standard. In interviews with KQED, regulators from both organizations also expressed support for prescribed burning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Charles Knoderer, meteorologist at BAAQMD, said that the air district views prescribed burning as a partner and ally in lowering the risk of wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can control when they’re doing the burning and we can minimize the amount of smoke that’s released,” he said. “Wildfires will put out a ton more smoke, and at that point there’s really no controlling it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Neither Bay Area nor California air regulators seem to share the worries of the fire community that the EPA will hamper the increased use of prescribed fire, however.[pullquote size='medium' align='left' citation=\"Charles Knoderer, meteorologist, Bay Area Air Quality Management District\"]‘We can control when they’re doing the burning and we can minimize the amount of smoke that’s released. Wildfires will put out a ton more smoke, and at that point there’s really no controlling it.’[/pullquote]Edie Chang, deputy executive officer at CARB, said her agency has heard from the prescribed-fire community and has brought up the issue in comments to the EPA.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re trying to see how we can streamline or make suggestions for how EPA might modify their policies or their guidance to help us be able to balance the increased use of prescribed fire that we need for forest management, for managing and reducing the catastrophic wildfires that we experience in California,” said Chang.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She expressed hope that the rule’s implementation phase, which it now heads into, would be the time for nitty-gritty details to be worked out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even though they can be expunged from the data, residents are still feeling [the effects of wildfire] very much so,” said Amsalem, of the Central California Environmental Justice Network. She hopes agencies will work out this issue, she said, “because we do need to do more prescribed burning to reduce the catastrophic events.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>EPA’s proposed workaround leaves burners skeptical\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The EPA also seems aware of these concerns. In its proposed rule, it says it acknowledges stakeholder concerns about the importance of prescribed fire and intends to work with stakeholders to address these issues. It also says \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-08/documents/ee_prescribed_fire_final_guidance_-_august_2019.pdf\">prescribed fires have the potential to qualify for exceptional events (PDF)\u003c/a>, which could encourage their continued and expanded use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, this has environmental lawyers very concerned. Sara Clark of the law firm Shute, Mihaly and Weinberger works with nonprofit organizations and supports prescribed fire and Indigenous cultural burners. She thinks the EPA’s reasoning as written might not hold up under a judge’s evaluation.[aside label=\"More Stories\" tag=\"prescribed-burning\"]“[The EPA] does a lot of linguistic acrobatics to try and clarify how a prescribed fire is … not reasonably preventable or controllable. But it’s called a ‘controlled burn,’” said Clark. “I’m concerned about the legal underpinnings there.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She also believes that the time and technical expertise needed to file for an exceptional event exemption would make air regulators wary of using it. Extensive documentation and analysis is needed to submit for an exceptional events determination from CARB or the EPA.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A recent Government Accountability Office report echoes these concerns. The report says \u003ca href=\"https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-104723.pdf\">the EPA could do a better job working with other agencies to reduce impacts from wildfires (PDF)\u003c/a>, including making it easier to conduct prescribed fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stakeholders interviewed by the GAO said that state and local agencies aren’t likely to use the exceptional events provision for prescribed burns because “the agencies would not likely approve prescribed burns that could cause National Ambient Air Quality Standards exceedances in the first place.” And they said that “exceptional event demonstrations are technically complicated and resource intensive.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Put another way, it’s more likely that prescribed burns would never happen if air regulators thought they might have to file for an exceptional event.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It is also legally uncharted, or nearly uncharted, territory. \u003ca href=\"https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-104723.pdf\">The EPA has received only one exceptional events demonstration for a prescribed burn (PDF)\u003c/a> — too much ozone was associated with prescribed burns in the Flint Hills of Kansas in December 2012. But since then, no tribal, state or local agency has submitted an exceptional event demonstration for a prescribed burn, according to EPA officials.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Should wildfires be considered exceptional?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The EPA’s proposed rule is based in part on the recommendations of the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee, a collection of public health experts. In their \u003ca href=\"https://www.lawandenvironment.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2022/03/casac-review-of-the-epas-policy-assessment-for-the-reconsideration-of-the-national-ambient-air-quality-standards-for-particulate-matter-external-review-draft-october-2021.pdf?utm_source=mondaq&utm_medium=syndication&utm_content=inarticlelink&utm_campaign=article\">letter sent last spring to EPA administrator Michael Regan (PDF)\u003c/a>, they questioned whether even wildfires ought to be routinely considered exceptional events, considering they are the result of human-caused climate change, fire suppression and forest management policies and, often, problems with equipment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In some parts of the country, wildfires are no longer ‘exceptional’ The dramatic increase in wildfires over the last decade is not natural,” the authors write, pointing to forest management, climate change and utility power lines. “These are (in theory) at least partially controllable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In UC Berkeley’s Stephens’ view, the rule as proposed is an unacceptable passing of the buck.[pullquote size='medium' align='left' citation=\"Scott Stephens, fire science professor, UC Berkeley\"]‘If you do proactive work like prescribed burning, you have to justify it through a rule that is onerous. But if a wildfire is occurring, causing damage to people, burning down homes, no one’s accountable. I just don’t see how that can work.’[/pullquote]“If you do proactive work like prescribed burning, you have to justify it through a rule that is onerous,” he said. “But if a wildfire is occurring, causing damage to people, burning down homes, no one’s accountable. I just don’t see how that can work.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, for those affected by the worst air quality in the state, pollution is damaging whether it’s from a diesel engine, a prescribed fire or a catastrophic wildfire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most people interviewed for this story said they hope that as the EPA decides how to implement the rule over the course of this year, it will find a route that both protects public health from human-made sources like smokestacks and tailpipes and encourages proactive wildfire protection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The key decision is going to be what happens in the U.S. EPA, PM 2.5 rulemaking. It’s really going to set the course for what is allowed or not allowed on the part of air districts over the next five to 10 years,” said Stanford’s Wara. He hopes for a path that can support both priorities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But if we just act as if it’s the year 2000 or sometime in the 1990s or even 1970 and the U.S. Forest Service reigned supreme over wildfire in the West?” he said. “We are not going to get this outcome.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"description": "The EPA is planning to tighten standards within the Clean Air Act, but a difference in how wildfire and prescribed fire smoke are accounted for could lead to perverse incentives.",
"title": "Here's Why Wildfire Experts Are Worried About an EPA Plan for Cleaner Air | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Few laws have been as successful, or saved the United States as much money, as the \u003ca href=\"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30853\">Clean Air Act (PDF)\u003c/a>. First enacted in 1955, the act was a response to alarming disasters like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5922205/\">Donora Smog\u003c/a> of 1948 in Western Pennsylvania and 1952’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-london-20615186\">Great Smog of London\u003c/a>, where thick dirty air from factories and vehicles enveloped communities for days and caused widespread deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Congress intended for the act to be frequently reevaluated and, if necessary, updated. The Environmental Protection Agency sets legal limits for how much pollution air districts are allowed to let into the air. Currently, the EPA is proposing tightening the standard for tiny particulates floating in the air, originating from motors, engines and fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Updating and tightening the standard is very popular among public health professionals, air regulators and the environmental justice community, who point to a mountain of evidence that this pollution takes lives early.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California Attorney General Rob Bonta, along \u003ca href=\"https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/attachments/press-docs/2023-03-28%20AGO%20Coalition%20-%20PM%20NAAQS%20Comment%20Letter.pdf\">with 17 other attorneys general, also supports limit tightening (PDF)\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many in the environmental justice community, concerned about the disproportionate air pollution burden that many lower-income communities and communities of color live with, would like to see standards tightened even further. In California, that’s especially true in the San Joaquin Valley and the South Coast Air Basin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We should have had lowered standards years ago. It’s a relief to see it now being proposed,” said Genevieve Amsalem, research and policy director at the Central California Environmental Justice Network. “Any time that you lower that standard, you’re going to be saving lives.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She considers bad air the region’s biggest environmental public health threat, one that especially affects communities of color.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "‘Everyone knows a parent who has brought their baby, or their 2-year-old, into the ER because they couldn’t breathe. You know, the baby’s turning blue. It’s a story you hear across generations.’",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“Everyone knows a parent who has brought their baby, or their 2-year-old, into the ER because they couldn’t breathe. You know, the baby’s turning blue,” Amsalem said. “It’s a story you hear across generations.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Data backs up this impression: Counties in the San Joaquin Valley consistently have among the \u003ca href=\"https://californiahealthline.org/news/dirty-air-and-disasters-sending-kids-to-the-er-for-asthma/\">worst rates of childhood asthma\u003c/a> in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there are worries among the fire science community that the EPA’s proposed rule could have its opposite intended effect. They worry it may leave the state with ultimately worse air in the long run by stifling the use of prescribed fire. The ultimate outcome will affect everyone living in California and beyond.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Wildfire is really challenging the paradigm that is at the core of the Clean Air Act — that emissions can be controlled,” said Michael Wara, an energy and climate scholar at Stanford University in \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uA1wg9yzGxM&t=32s\">a presentation to students and researchers\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Wildfire emissions are not being successfully controlled. They’re growing,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Clean Air Act was written during a time when smokestack air pollution was the key problem standing in the way of healthy air, and the U.S. Forest Service could seemingly put any wildfire out by \u003ca href=\"https://foresthistory.org/research-explore/us-forest-service-history/policy-and-law/fire-u-s-forest-service/u-s-forest-service-fire-suppression/#:~:text=In%201935%2C%20the%20Forest%20Service,eliminate%20fire%20from%20the%20landscape.\">10 a.m. the next day\u003c/a>. All over the country, wildfires bent more or less easily to the will of firefighters, and the big sources of pollution could be regulated at the emission’s source. But that was a different climate reality.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Clean air keeps people out of hospitals\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Today, with \u003ca href=\"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44840/4\">emissions from the worst pollutants down by more than 70% (PDF)\u003c/a>, the EPA estimates \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/benefits-and-costs-clean-air-act-1990-2020-second-prospective-study#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20Clean%20Air,reductions%20in%20ambient%20particulate%20matter\">the Clean Air Act saves 230,000 lives annually\u003c/a> and hundreds of thousands more from asthma, bronchitis and heart attacks. Public health experts estimate the benefits of all these lives saved and hospital visits avoided into the \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/benefits-and-costs-clean-air-act-1970-1990-study-design-and-summary-results\">many trillions of dollars\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wildfires are now a major producer of both carbon emissions and tiny specks of sooty pollutants known as PM 2.5. A 2022 study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29623-8\">wildfire pollution was beginning to reverse decades of clean air gains\u003c/a>. (Researchers at Stanford in 2020 had \u003ca href=\"https://escholarship.org/content/qt5134m9d8/qt5134m9d8.pdf?t=qpc4ro\">similar findings [PDF]\u003c/a>.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA’s plan would update its standard for PM 2.5.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Shorthand for “particulate matter of 2.5 microns in size or less,” PM 2.5 is a class of pollutants based on dimensions rather than origin or chemical makeup. It would take about 30 of them lined up to cross the width of a human hair. It’s their size that’s the key problem: It allows them to get deep into the lungs and even cross into the bloodstream, causing heart and respiratory problems. In short, it’s a terrible pollutant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Public comment on the proposal closed late last month, and the EPA is now deciding whether and how to implement revisions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA estimates \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/sciencematters/epa-researchers-contribute-american-thoracic-society-workshop-report-wildland-fire\">a third of the PM 2.5 we breathe in this country is from wildfires\u003c/a>. For those in the West during wildfire season, it can be 90%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And if wildfire trends continue and worsen, as climate models suggest they will, then we’ve seen nothing yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To avoid the worst outcomes, Wara of Stanford points to the need to dramatically increase the use of prescribed fire in pyro-adapted landscapes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some of the best hopes that we have for reducing public health impacts from wildfire and [general] impacts from wildfire have to do with substituting prescribed fire emission for high-intensity wildfire emission,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>The rub: Wildfire smoke vs. prescribed fire smoke\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The EPA enforces its clean air standards. If air districts do not achieve these clean-air goals, then the EPA can take over air permitting within a district and even impose a ban on new federal highway grants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, EPA officials recognize that sometimes air districts are out of compliance through no fault of their own. In this case, they are allowed to file for an “exceptional event.” In this bureaucratic process, the “event” is linked to the cause of pollution going over the legal limit. It is meant for events that are unforeseeable and are unlikely to occur in the same location again, like a volcanic explosion. If the link can be made, then emissions from that event can be subtracted from the total, and the air district is no longer in trouble with the EPA.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To use an analogy, if you couldn’t pay off your credit card bill some month because you had an unforeseen emergency expense, this would be the process by which you might convince the credit card company to waive that charge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1970817\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1970817\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"An aerial view shows neighborhoods enshrouded in smoke as the Bobcat Fire advances toward foothill cities and new evacuation order go into effect on September 13, 2020 in Monrovia, California.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/11/gettyimages-1228496051-11803c34ee7e287ff491ad1597467efb869d819a-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An aerial view shows neighborhoods in Monrovia enshrouded in smoke from the Bobcat Fire on Sept. 13, 2020. \u003ccite>(David McNew/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It is a long, technically involved process. A California Air Resources Board (CARB) \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/2020_Northern_California_EE_Full_Demo_Final.pdf\">exceptional events filing (PDF)\u003c/a> for ozone concentrations during the Northern California wildfires of 2020 runs 228 pages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem, as seen by many in the wildfire science community, is that while this process essentially means air districts are not on the hook for wildfire smoke, they are on the hook for prescribed fire smoke. And prescribed fire — the most affordable, effective inoculation against future wildfires — has never been used as a basis for an exceptional event in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But fire scientists and those in fire agencies worry this new rule will stifle the state and federal plans to expand the use of prescribed fire as a core strategy to stem out-of-control wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve got to start doing larger prescribed burns if we want to make a difference to what is actually happening on our landscape,” said Scott Stephens, fire science professor at UC Berkeley. “That just means there’s going to be more smoke.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pro-prescribed-fire groups, including the National Association of Forest Service Retirees, have \u003ca href=\"https://nafsr.org/advocacy/2023/031023%20NAFSR%20response%20to%20EPA%20PM2.5%20rule%20change.pdf\">submitted comments detailing their concern (PDF)\u003c/a> that the proposed rule “will reduce the Nation’s ability to implement strategies intended to reduce unwanted wildfire effects on communities and wildlands, including barriers to increasing the pace and scale of prescribed burning.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1976585\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1998px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1976585\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f.jpg\" alt=\"A firefighter lights a prescribed burn in Humboldt County to reduce the underbrush without killing trees.\" width=\"1998\" height=\"1499\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f.jpg 1998w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/08/winter-oak-woodland-burning-2b67dc9298069f3e95da35a79dcd1b2aa432876f-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1998px) 100vw, 1998px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Prescribed burns, like this one in Humboldt County, reduce the underbrush without destroying trees. \u003ccite>(Lenya Quinn-Davidson/NPR)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A large group of fire specialists, including professors, cultural burners and ecologists, wrote in a comment letter to the EPA that its plan “would put the EPA on the wrong side of policies and actions planned by federal, state, local and Tribal entities to address the wildfire crisis and ultimately, to reduce harmful PM2.5 emissions and impacts by reducing wildfire smoke.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Smoke from prescribed fires is less intense and less damaging than smoke from wildfires. Many scientists view it as \u003ca href=\"https://www.lung.org/policy-advocacy/healthy-air-campaign/prescribed-fire-report#:~:text=Prescribed%20burns%20can%20be%20used,supporting%20ecosystem%20health%20and%20resiliency.\">a protective trade-off\u003c/a> — some pollution now in exchange for greater fire safety (and less pollution) in the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Air districts supportive, with qualifications\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Both the \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/carb-statement-us-epa-proposal-strengthen-health-based-standards-fine-particulate-matter\">California Air Resources Board\u003c/a> and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.baaqmd.gov/~/media/files/communications-and-outreach/publications/news-releases/2023/pmnaaqs_230105_2023_001-pdf.pdf?la=en\">Bay Area Air Quality Management District (PDF)\u003c/a> have submitted comments supporting a tightening of the PM 2.5 standard. In interviews with KQED, regulators from both organizations also expressed support for prescribed burning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Charles Knoderer, meteorologist at BAAQMD, said that the air district views prescribed burning as a partner and ally in lowering the risk of wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can control when they’re doing the burning and we can minimize the amount of smoke that’s released,” he said. “Wildfires will put out a ton more smoke, and at that point there’s really no controlling it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Neither Bay Area nor California air regulators seem to share the worries of the fire community that the EPA will hamper the increased use of prescribed fire, however.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "‘We can control when they’re doing the burning and we can minimize the amount of smoke that’s released. Wildfires will put out a ton more smoke, and at that point there’s really no controlling it.’",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Edie Chang, deputy executive officer at CARB, said her agency has heard from the prescribed-fire community and has brought up the issue in comments to the EPA.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re trying to see how we can streamline or make suggestions for how EPA might modify their policies or their guidance to help us be able to balance the increased use of prescribed fire that we need for forest management, for managing and reducing the catastrophic wildfires that we experience in California,” said Chang.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She expressed hope that the rule’s implementation phase, which it now heads into, would be the time for nitty-gritty details to be worked out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even though they can be expunged from the data, residents are still feeling [the effects of wildfire] very much so,” said Amsalem, of the Central California Environmental Justice Network. She hopes agencies will work out this issue, she said, “because we do need to do more prescribed burning to reduce the catastrophic events.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>EPA’s proposed workaround leaves burners skeptical\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The EPA also seems aware of these concerns. In its proposed rule, it says it acknowledges stakeholder concerns about the importance of prescribed fire and intends to work with stakeholders to address these issues. It also says \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-08/documents/ee_prescribed_fire_final_guidance_-_august_2019.pdf\">prescribed fires have the potential to qualify for exceptional events (PDF)\u003c/a>, which could encourage their continued and expanded use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, this has environmental lawyers very concerned. Sara Clark of the law firm Shute, Mihaly and Weinberger works with nonprofit organizations and supports prescribed fire and Indigenous cultural burners. She thinks the EPA’s reasoning as written might not hold up under a judge’s evaluation.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“[The EPA] does a lot of linguistic acrobatics to try and clarify how a prescribed fire is … not reasonably preventable or controllable. But it’s called a ‘controlled burn,’” said Clark. “I’m concerned about the legal underpinnings there.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She also believes that the time and technical expertise needed to file for an exceptional event exemption would make air regulators wary of using it. Extensive documentation and analysis is needed to submit for an exceptional events determination from CARB or the EPA.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A recent Government Accountability Office report echoes these concerns. The report says \u003ca href=\"https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-104723.pdf\">the EPA could do a better job working with other agencies to reduce impacts from wildfires (PDF)\u003c/a>, including making it easier to conduct prescribed fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stakeholders interviewed by the GAO said that state and local agencies aren’t likely to use the exceptional events provision for prescribed burns because “the agencies would not likely approve prescribed burns that could cause National Ambient Air Quality Standards exceedances in the first place.” And they said that “exceptional event demonstrations are technically complicated and resource intensive.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Put another way, it’s more likely that prescribed burns would never happen if air regulators thought they might have to file for an exceptional event.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It is also legally uncharted, or nearly uncharted, territory. \u003ca href=\"https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-104723.pdf\">The EPA has received only one exceptional events demonstration for a prescribed burn (PDF)\u003c/a> — too much ozone was associated with prescribed burns in the Flint Hills of Kansas in December 2012. But since then, no tribal, state or local agency has submitted an exceptional event demonstration for a prescribed burn, according to EPA officials.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Should wildfires be considered exceptional?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The EPA’s proposed rule is based in part on the recommendations of the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee, a collection of public health experts. In their \u003ca href=\"https://www.lawandenvironment.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2022/03/casac-review-of-the-epas-policy-assessment-for-the-reconsideration-of-the-national-ambient-air-quality-standards-for-particulate-matter-external-review-draft-october-2021.pdf?utm_source=mondaq&utm_medium=syndication&utm_content=inarticlelink&utm_campaign=article\">letter sent last spring to EPA administrator Michael Regan (PDF)\u003c/a>, they questioned whether even wildfires ought to be routinely considered exceptional events, considering they are the result of human-caused climate change, fire suppression and forest management policies and, often, problems with equipment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In some parts of the country, wildfires are no longer ‘exceptional’ The dramatic increase in wildfires over the last decade is not natural,” the authors write, pointing to forest management, climate change and utility power lines. “These are (in theory) at least partially controllable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In UC Berkeley’s Stephens’ view, the rule as proposed is an unacceptable passing of the buck.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "‘If you do proactive work like prescribed burning, you have to justify it through a rule that is onerous. But if a wildfire is occurring, causing damage to people, burning down homes, no one’s accountable. I just don’t see how that can work.’",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“If you do proactive work like prescribed burning, you have to justify it through a rule that is onerous,” he said. “But if a wildfire is occurring, causing damage to people, burning down homes, no one’s accountable. I just don’t see how that can work.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, for those affected by the worst air quality in the state, pollution is damaging whether it’s from a diesel engine, a prescribed fire or a catastrophic wildfire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most people interviewed for this story said they hope that as the EPA decides how to implement the rule over the course of this year, it will find a route that both protects public health from human-made sources like smokestacks and tailpipes and encourages proactive wildfire protection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The key decision is going to be what happens in the U.S. EPA, PM 2.5 rulemaking. It’s really going to set the course for what is allowed or not allowed on the part of air districts over the next five to 10 years,” said Stanford’s Wara. He hopes for a path that can support both priorities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But if we just act as if it’s the year 2000 or sometime in the 1990s or even 1970 and the U.S. Forest Service reigned supreme over wildfire in the West?” he said. “We are not going to get this outcome.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Promising to Prevent Floods at Treasure Island, Builders Downplay Risk of Sea Rise",
"headTitle": "Promising to Prevent Floods at Treasure Island, Builders Downplay Risk of Sea Rise | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was reported by the \u003ca href=\"https://sfpublicpress.org/\">San Francisco Public Press\u003c/a>, an independent nonprofit newsroom focused on accountability journalism, in partnership with Inside Climate News.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sea level rise is forcing cities around San Francisco Bay to weigh demand for new housing against the need to protect communities from flooding. Builders say they can solve this dilemma with cutting-edge civil engineering. But no one knows whether their ambitious efforts will be enough to keep newly built waterfront real estate safe in coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, developers are busy building — and telling the public that they can mitigate this one effect of climate change, despite mounting evidence that it could be a bigger problem than previously believed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Treasure Island, a flat tract of 20th-century landfill with epic bay vistas, workers have poured the foundation for a 22-story tower, the first of six planned high-rise buildings, and broken ground on an affordable housing complex. Another, for families and unhoused veterans, is nearly complete. Townhomes, retail space and a waterfront transit hub are also in the pipeline. All told, the $6 billion development would be home to 20,000 people or more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Engineers for the public-private consortium transforming the island, Treasure Island Community Development, say they are pursuing aggressive sea rise adaptation strategies. Improvements include raising some of the land by several feet, preparing a buffer zone for future levees and pumps, and setting aside low-lying open space that could convert to floodable marshland as higher bay waters spill onshore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not a cheap endeavor. The development group’s director, Bob Beck, did not return multiple emails and phone calls regarding costs for this work. A 2011 report by the city of San Francisco, which includes Treasure Island, estimated that “geotechnical stabilization” measures would cost $137 million. Storm drains, soil grading and landscape and open-space improvements would add about $120 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dilip Trivedi, the site’s project manager with international engineering firm Moffatt and Nichol, has been touting the consortium’s efforts for more than a decade. He said in a recent interview that the most built-up parts of the island should be safe from sea rise through at least 2070. Fifty years or so is a reasonable planning horizon for new developments, he added, and additional phased seawall construction can help future generations stay a step ahead of ever-higher tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When you put together significant infrastructure, you don’t want to have to maintain it for about that time,” Trivedi said. “It is what we call project life.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982132\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982132\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"Two construction workers seen on the job on residential tower. \" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">After years of planning, construction has started on residential towers with sweeping views of San Francisco and the Bay Area. At least 20,000 residents are expected to live on the island by 2035. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists, however, commonly try to predict sea rise out at least to the year 2100, a time when some current schoolchildren could be octogenarian residents of the island.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Every contemporary climate model predicts that, even with deep carbon reductions starting this decade, several feet of sea rise are locked in. The debates for climate adaptation strategy are how many feet and how far down the road we should consider.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ever more sophisticated climate predictions, the outlook for sea level rise has continued to darken, indicating that current trends will likely accelerate through the end of the century. In one pessimistic scenario — which researchers say is among the possibilities in a “business as usual” global greenhouse gas emissions future — much of the island could find itself underwater frequently, and some of the most developed areas could occasionally be threatened with flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To home in on Treasure Island’s future, the San Francisco Public Press asked researchers at the United States Geological Survey’s Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, based in Santa Cruz, to create a highly localized model of sea rise conditions under various climate scenarios. They found that bay waters could surge higher than the developers have long been saying publicly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In that model, by 2100 there is a small but not insignificant chance of 4 feet, 11 inches of sea level rise — slightly more than what the island’s engineers have accounted for. Adding in the effects of tides, weather and other transient events, such as in the kind of extreme storm seen once in a century, that total could be 2 feet, 11 inches higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The resulting surge would, at least temporarily, send waves 1 foot, 2 inches higher than the lowest ground floors of some planned housing complexes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982133\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px.png\" alt=\"Facing Sea Level Rise at Treasure Island\" width=\"700\" height=\"691\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px.png 700w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px-160x158.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the project’s engineers never address this possibility in their public narratives, documents they have prepared show they have known about similar scenarios for years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Their own maps, which superimpose flood conditions on existing land elevations, line up fairly closely to the Geological Survey’s findings. Yet the engineers have chosen to downplay the likelihood of these outcomes as they pursued permits to build, arguing that novel construction technologies could make the development invulnerable to flooding under any reasonable course of events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a 2016 sea rise adaptation filing with a regional watershed agency, Moffatt and Nichol included six maps showing potential flood conditions in each construction phase, side by side with maps showing how the planned short- and long-term sea level rise protections would prevent inundation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One map shows 4 feet of sea rise. Before any land improvements, nearly the entire island would have been inundated — up to 8 feet in places — during flooding calculated by FEMA to have a 1% chance of occurring per year. Another part of that document showed a graph that indicated a 4-foot rise was possible by around 2093. The Geological Survey’s extreme scenario model for 2100 puts sea rise closer to 5 feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Trivedi said that the raising of the land under many of the buildings, plus additional shoreline improvements, would protect key infrastructure. Beside that map, the engineers showed how the existing 3.5-mile perimeter wall could be raised by 1 to 3 feet, depending on location, which they said would keep much of the island dry, although a note appended to the diagram said: “Does not show intentional flooding from managed retreat on northern and eastern shorelines — TBD.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Within the last year, regulators have started questioning whether the steps developers are taking are sufficient to guarantee that the island remains dry in the long term.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a community that will be around a while,” said Ethan Lavine, chief of permits for shoreline development for the Bay Conservation and Development Commission. “At a certain point in time, they will need levee protection.” Lavine’s office is pressing Trivedi and his colleagues to use a more cautious view of climate change when assessing whether Treasure Island’s flood prevention techniques can handle what nature might throw at them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When evaluating permit applications, government agencies require developers to reference the “best available science” to assess threats from climate change. In October 2021, the engineers issued an update to the 2016 filing. In it, Trivedi compared his firm’s sea level rise expectations against studies by several scientific bodies, including California’s Ocean Protection Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. His preferred predictions minimized the effect of the worst-case scenarios. The only needed change, he argued, would be to move up the time frame for planning adaptations by as much as five years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982134\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px.png\" alt=\"Fortifying Treasure Island\" width=\"750\" height=\"864\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px.png 750w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px-160x184.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet climate policy experts point out that with significant scientific papers being released each year, guidance for builders has become a moving target. Because they admit a great deal of uncertainty in their predictions, scientists always publish their results in charts that consider an array of environmental assumptions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That gives developers leeway to choose which predictions to focus on when describing the risks to their capital investments. Treasure Island could be the most expensive local project in the region’s history to take advantage of this ambiguity.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Projecting optimism\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>All of Trivedi’s recent public statements conclude that the likelihood of the gloomiest climate scenarios is remote, and that the level of risk to property and lives is insignificant given the proposed engineering fixes. But a close examination of the 2021 adaptation plan offers a few reasons for concern:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>It dismisses high-end forecasts, in which global warming accelerates due to uncontrolled carbon emissions.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It selectively cites climate models that make planned infrastructure appear sufficient to virtually eliminate future flood risk.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It focuses on relatively short time frames, such as 20 or 50 years, while offering little specificity about expected conditions at the end of the century, which falls within the lifetimes of some children alive today.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said in an interview that for planning purposes, he is focused on one recent predicted milestone: 3 feet of sea rise by 2080. In that circumstance, the ground floors of most buildings, to be built upon a now-elevated development pad, would still have a buffer of nearly 4 feet above the average highest tide of today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He also asserted that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific committee organized by the United Nations, recently reported sea rise could be less severe than previously forecasted, based on the track record of recent years. “What has been observed is that sea level rise is not tracking” to the most pessimistic scenarios, he said. But there are reasons to question his conclusion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The localized scenario for 2100 examined by the Geological Survey — the one resulting in water levels 1 foot, 2 inches above some developed areas — relies on a climate change prediction assessed to have a probability of 0.5%, that is, a 1-in-200 statistical chance of occurring. That prediction was published by the California Ocean Protection Council, a body of experts organized by the state government, in recent guidelines for community planning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said the international group’s current report indicates there’s “low confidence in that scenario happening.” When asked for a citation to back up this claim, Trivedi referenced a “localized model” of the findings from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and five other federal agencies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html\">report these agencies jointly issued in February 2022\u003c/a> in fact gave a more nuanced view. In a section titled “Future Mean Sea Level,” the authors did exclude one scenario used by the Ocean Protection Council that had been labeled “extreme” and not given a numerical probability. But that is not the scenario Trivedi said the group ruled out. This same report indicates that the West Coast is likely to see 4 to 8 inches of rise over 30 years, accelerating later in the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Regardless of the pace of the increase, Treasure Island developers say they have contingency plans relying on future residents or taxpayers to fund the construction of progressively higher walls around the urban zone — several feet every few decades. In its latest update, Moffatt and Nichol said sea level rise of 1 foot by 2043 would trigger the plan to elevate the perimeter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A strategy reliant on levees might seem risky in light of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when faulty engineering of levees led to catastrophic flooding of parts of New Orleans that sit below the level of the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico. In light of this recent history, Bay Area regulators are starting to ask whether the Treasure Island plan is entirely watertight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A March 2022 letter from the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the agency that issued the island’s 2016 permit for waterfront areas, called the update too optimistic and tolerant of long-term flooding potential.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Public access along a shoreline and a big mixed-use development require using a medium-to-high-risk projection for sea level rise,” said the commission’s planning manager, Erik Buehmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Reengineering shaky ground\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>On an island built by the government generations ago out of rocks, soil and dredged sand, preparing high-and-dry land would be difficult even if it were not in an earthquake and tsunami zone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In numerous reports and public presentations, Trivedi has said construction workers have elevated land on the 100-acre development pad to 3 feet, 6 inches above the “base flood elevation” — a height calculated by Federal Emergency Management Agency representing a 1% chance of flooding each year. The homes, hotels and businesses there will be set back from the shoreline by 200 to 300 feet on most sides and as much as 1,000 feet from the northern shore because that area is more prone to flooding. Building is planned to roll out in phases through 2035.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Workers have spent years using cranes to repeatedly drop heavy weights to compact the soil. They have driven vibrating probes into the earth, filling the holes with concrete for stabilization. They then piled 1 million cubic yards of soil atop the compacted layer. These measures are intended to prevent the kind of ground liquefaction seen in the Marina District and elsewhere during the devastating 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Other geological improvements include inserting vertical wick drains, akin to long drinking straws, to help remove water from the soil as it compresses. These techniques have been used by civil engineers around the world for more than 30 years to develop areas without easy access to bedrock.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982135\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982135\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A view of compacted yards of soil.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Developers have trucked in and compacted 1 million cubic yards of soil to raise the land underneath new buildings in one strategy to mitigate flood risk. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said these measures, together with a jagged, rocky seawall raised to allow for just over 1 foot of sea rise, would help take energy out of large waves, and the setback would use the landscape to dissipate any possible overtopping before it reaches valuable structures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the same time, the engineers have recognized that much of the island — particularly the low-lying northern end — are indefensible. Areas that have flooded in the past will eventually be sacrificed to rising waters. That strategy has immediate, concrete consequences: Dozens of existing structures, including homes of about 3,000 people currently living there, are set to be demolished to create open space. Over time these areas could be turned into tidal marshland to protect the newly developed areas from storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Regulators balk at a sunny assessment\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the agency most empowered to weigh in on new waterfront building, is hamstrung by a legal mandate to regulate only what happens 100 feet inland, regardless of elevation — an artifact of legislation dating from before climate change was a dominant concern.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 2016 permit the agency issued for improvements on Treasure Island’s margins, including a ferry terminal, required adaptation updates every five years. Moffatt and Nichol’s 2021 update concluded that the original adaptation plans needed few changes, except for possibly needing to accelerate, by five years, the planning process for building higher perimeter levees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Regulators balked at the assessment. In a March 2022 letter, the commission advised Moffatt and Nichol to plan more conservatively. The agency demanded consideration of a 1-in-200 chance sea rise scenario, in which seas rise 6 feet, 11 inches by 2100. Adding in a 100-year storm surge, waves could plausibly overtop portions of the sea wall along the southeastern side by about 1 to 2 feet, and along the northern end by about 1 foot. That is an even worse outcome than that predicted by Geological Survey’s localized flooding model.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The commission said Moffatt and Nichol seemed too dismissive of chances that things could go wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The permittees decided to design the project considering very low risk of sea level rise related impacts” the letter said, noting also that engineers seemed too focused on the short time horizon of 2080.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trivedi counters that the Treasure Island development was never built upon projections of a certain sea level happening by a certain date, because seawalls can, for all practical purposes, be built arbitrarily high, on whatever schedule is needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We adopted an approach where we decided on an allowance we are building into the project,” he said in the interview. “As future projections come out, we will adjust the date of the adaptation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Commission staff met with planners from Moffatt and Nichol last summer to work out the requested additions to the 2021 adaptation strategy. Buehmann, who worked on the original permit, said follow-up discussions were to be expected because the Treasure Island permit was the first since the commission began requiring builders to submit sea rise assessments. “We didn’t expect it to be perfect the first time,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Whatever comes of this process which Trivedi referred to as merely “an internal thing” that was required for the filing — the adaptation plan is unlikely to change significantly, because the development pad is already in place and huge construction cranes are sprouting up on Treasure Island’s skyline. What is left in the playbook is raising future seawalls, ceding the northern open space and the installation of pumps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Government officials have long acknowledged the inevitability of Treasure Island’s relying on artificial barriers. In 2015, Brad McCrea, regulatory program director at the commission, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/major-s-f-bayfront-developments-advance-despite-sea-rise-warnings/\">told the Public Press\u003c/a>: “At the end of the day, this will be a levee-protected community — there’s no getting around that.” Since then, agency staff have not changed their view.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Rapidly outdated climate science\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>To determine how high to raise the building pad, Treasure Island builders consulted several climate studies published as early as 1987 and as recently as 2007. At that point, scientists were predicting that by 2100, oceans could rise as much as 4 feet, 7 inches.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This forecast was echoed by a state panel of scientists and policy experts in 2009, when then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger visited Treasure Island to announce its findings and call for better sea level rise mitigation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982136\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982136\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A view of the San Francisco skyline from Treasure Island.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">When finished, Treasure Island could be a spectacular locale for commuters to San Francisco to settle. But residents will face similar flooding challenges to those in waterfront communities throughout the Bay Area. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Moffatt and Nichol then relied on these studies to anticipate that the oceans would rise 3 feet by 2075. So the company proposed raising the development pad to 3 feet, 6 inches above the predicted levels for a once-in-a-hundred-year flood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Moffatt and Nichol did not spell out a rationale for setting the height of the development pad, as the \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/uncertain-about-rising-seas-developers-using-mid-range-estimate-to-build-up-island/\">Public Press reported in 2010\u003c/a>. The firm did argue that raising it higher could create other problems, such as jeopardizing the island’s stability under the weight of packed soil and adding expense. “At some point it doesn’t become cost-effective — it’s a matter of acceptable levels of risk over your planning horizon,” Trivedi said in an interview then.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, when Treasure Island plans were drawn up, scientific modeling showed wide uncertainty about how much global temperatures could increase. In 2009, scientists around the world were saying that oceans could rise anywhere from a minimum of 3 feet, 3 inches to a maximum of 4 feet, 11 inches by 2100. At that time, the effects of ice melt from land via glaciers, snowpacks and ice caps were little understood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, European and U.S. scientists using satellite imagery to measure the shape of Greenland’s ice sheets say melting is outstripping gains from snowfall. In \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2\">a paper published last August\u003c/a>, they found that no matter how much countries curb emissions, seas will rise by a minimum of 11 inches from this effect alone.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Focusing locally\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The U.S. Geological Survey developed the \u003ca href=\"https://ourcoastourfuture.org/science-and-modeling/\">Coastal Storm Modeling System\u003c/a> to help protect waterfront communities. It simulates \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-40742-z#MOESM1\">the forces behind wave and wind data and translates them into local flood projections\u003c/a> that include tides, storm surges, waves and seasonal events such as El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Public Press requested that the agency simulate a small section of San Francisco Bay, in the vicinity of Treasure Island, relying on probability scenarios for global sea levels in 2100 developed by the \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/opc-climate-change-program/sea-level-rise-2/\">California Ocean Protection Council\u003c/a> in \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/agenda_items/20180314/Item3_Exhibit-A_OPC_SLR_Guidance-rd3.pdf\">a 2018 guidance paper (PDF)\u003c/a>. This report offered up sea rise projections of likelihoods as high as 50% and as low as 0.5%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocean Protection Council’s examination of a wide array of probabilities heavily influenced the Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s critique of the Treasure Island adaptation update. The commission’s biggest concern was that change might happen faster than the engineers were anticipating.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" allow=\"fullscreen 'none'\" frameborder=\"0\" src=\"https://coastal.climatecentral.org/embed/map/13/-122.3736/37.8082/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&water_level=7.8&water_unit=ft\" width=\"100%\" height=\"450\" title=\"Climate Central | Land below 7.8 feet of water\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>Explore sea level rise scenarios using \u003ca href=\"https://climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>’s interactive tool. Here we show floodwaters at 7.8 feet above the present-day high tide line.\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Trivedi said the Ocean Protection Council’s past predictions had already failed. “If you look at the year 2022 projections, follow the OPC formulas,” Trivedi said. “We should have seen about 8 inches of sea level rise since 2000. In reality, it has been about 2 inches or less.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most forecasts predict increased global temperatures due to persistent carbon pollution. But the emissions projections are still hotly contested.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocean Protection Council examined two emissions scenarios. \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200804085912.htm\">One assumed that\u003c/a> carbon dioxide output doubles through 2050. The other imagined more aggressive greenhouse gas reductions — 70% by 2050 and “net zero” emissions by 2080.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the purposes of seeing how bad things could plausibly get, the U.S. Geological Survey used a midlevel emissions scenario. This decision was based on detailed simulations into the next century of swell and waves along the Pacific Ocean. What the researchers found was that paradoxically, milder greenhouse gas levels generated worse storms for California’s coast than do extreme ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s really changed in the research community is that worst-case scenarios have become more common,” said Patrick Barnard, a research geologist with the agency. “The state is asking communities to prepare for these.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This approach helps waterfront areas learn to be more risk-averse to protect property and lives.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Avoiding mistakes of the past\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Foster City is paying a high price for waterfront sprawl. Like Treasure Island, the mid-Peninsula community 25 miles to the south was built entirely on landfill, not unusual in the Bay Area, where efforts to accommodate population growth stretching back to the Gold Rush consumed most of the wetlands and tidal marshes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Foster City did have worries about flooding decades ago. It is shot through with artificial waterways, including two sloughs, several small canals and an artificial lagoon. Barely above sea level before being developed, it would not exist if not for its levees and seawalls.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet, in 2014 FEMA informed Foster City officials that \u003ca href=\"https://fostercitylevee.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/coastal_flood_hazard_study.pdf\">new studies showed (PDF)\u003c/a> the levee system was neither strong nor tall enough to withstand a major storm and the large waves that would result. Update the seawalls and levees, or the entire city would be designated a floodplain, the agency said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sixty years ago, developers there hauled in tons of sand to raise the land several feet to construct thousands of homes in what became a 33,000-resident community. That was a time when climate change was not a part of city planning vernacular. Today workers are busy widening and raising levees and adding interlocking steel plates as a bulwark against the storms federal regulators warned of, as well as rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Treasure Island, which is slated to add 8,000 units of housing to accommodate more than 20,000 residents, is still more than a decade away from build-out. What the engineers put in place there in the next few years could avoid Foster City’s mistakes — or compound them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, some cities are starting to alter blueprints on pace with the evolving science. In October, the Port of San Francisco announced it was collaborating with the Army Corps of Engineers \u003ca href=\"https://sfport.com/files/2022-10/10112022_item_11a_draft_waterfront_adaptation_strategies_final.pdf\">to study how to shore up the city’s seawall along its eastern waterfront (PDF)\u003c/a>, from Fisherman’s Wharf to the Hunters Point Shipyard, to combat both sea rise and earthquake risk. This area includes attractions like the Chase Center sports arena, a project green-lighted before a city-commissioned study surfaced that predicted flooding from sea level rise in the new Mission Bay neighborhood, as \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/projects-sailed-through-despite-dire-flood-study/\">the Public Press reported in 2017\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Port officials now say they anticipate 7 feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. That is 2 feet, 5 inches higher than the level Treasure Island’s developers are planning for in their adaptation strategy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Port’s yearlong effort will consider elevating barriers along the Embarcadero, installing a system of locks at Mission Creek and buying back and cleaning up privately owned landfill areas around Islais Creek to return them to the tidal zone.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Not easy to abandon a home\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In the grips of a housing affordability crisis, San Francisco needs new construction. But is a flood zone the wisest place to build? That could depend on how long we expect buildings to last.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnard, of the U.S. Geological Survey, has traveled to many communities, including Okracoke Island, part of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, to assess how to protect people from storms. In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian shut the island down to visitors. For residents, it was hard to consider leaving a place they have inhabited for seven or eight generations. “You can’t detach people from their place, or their heart,” Barnard said. “They’ll stay until water is up to their nose.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before the developers moved in, Treasure Island had \u003ca href=\"https://censusreporter.org/profiles/15000US060750179031-bg-1-tract-17903-san-francisco-ca/\">roughly 3,000 residents, according to the 2020 Census\u003c/a>, many living in homes built for the U.S. Navy in the mid-20th century when it was a military base. Nearly half have a household income less than $50,000, and many do not speak English.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now these residents are on tenterhooks. Under an agreement with the developer, people who lived on Treasure Island before 2011 are guaranteed new affordable and rent-controlled units. But the wait times and other inconveniences have been tough. Everyone is living in a construction site with an unreliable electrical grid that browns and blacks out frequently.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982137\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982137\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Two people run in a residential area with their dog.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the existing low-lying homes on the island, built decades ago, will be razed to make room for new condos, as well as open space that developers say could be abandoned to bay waters as seas rise. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The new units are supposed to be comparable to what they had, but longtime islander Christoph Opperman said they have been offered “interim” units that, for example, might not have enough space for a family, or lack laundry facilities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re picking us off one neighborhood at a time by making us do two moves,” Opperman said. “We’re not entitled to just anything on the island, but we are entitled to fair treatment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Treasure Island’s planners are essentially acknowledging that they must sacrifice part of the island to the bay, even while pursuing a more built-up urban environment just several hundred feet away. This combination of \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/researchers-abandon-neighborhoods-avoid-flood-zone-to-limit-sea-level-rise/\">advance and retreat\u003c/a> is all part of the plan, the engineers say.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked whether he would move to Treasure Island, Trivedi did not hesitate to say yes, observing that no part of the Bay Area was completely free of danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t see why not,” he said. “I mean, should people be moving to San Francisco, because of the seismic risk? Buildings are being designed to codes. And flooding is the same way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This reporting is supported by grants from the\u003ca href=\"https://www.solutionsjournalism.org/topics/business-and-sustainability\"> Solutions Journalism Network’s Business and Sustainability Initiative\u003c/a> and by the \u003ca href=\"http://fij.org/\">Fund for Investigative Journalism\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "One environmental model predicts that by 2100, stormwater could threaten a neighborhood now under construction. Protecting the community depends on extreme waterfront engineering decades into the future.",
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"description": "One environmental model predicts that by 2100, stormwater could threaten a neighborhood now under construction. Protecting the community depends on extreme waterfront engineering decades into the future.",
"title": "Promising to Prevent Floods at Treasure Island, Builders Downplay Risk of Sea Rise | KQED",
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"headline": "Promising to Prevent Floods at Treasure Island, Builders Downplay Risk of Sea Rise",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was reported by the \u003ca href=\"https://sfpublicpress.org/\">San Francisco Public Press\u003c/a>, an independent nonprofit newsroom focused on accountability journalism, in partnership with Inside Climate News.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sea level rise is forcing cities around San Francisco Bay to weigh demand for new housing against the need to protect communities from flooding. Builders say they can solve this dilemma with cutting-edge civil engineering. But no one knows whether their ambitious efforts will be enough to keep newly built waterfront real estate safe in coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, developers are busy building — and telling the public that they can mitigate this one effect of climate change, despite mounting evidence that it could be a bigger problem than previously believed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Treasure Island, a flat tract of 20th-century landfill with epic bay vistas, workers have poured the foundation for a 22-story tower, the first of six planned high-rise buildings, and broken ground on an affordable housing complex. Another, for families and unhoused veterans, is nearly complete. Townhomes, retail space and a waterfront transit hub are also in the pipeline. All told, the $6 billion development would be home to 20,000 people or more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Engineers for the public-private consortium transforming the island, Treasure Island Community Development, say they are pursuing aggressive sea rise adaptation strategies. Improvements include raising some of the land by several feet, preparing a buffer zone for future levees and pumps, and setting aside low-lying open space that could convert to floodable marshland as higher bay waters spill onshore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not a cheap endeavor. The development group’s director, Bob Beck, did not return multiple emails and phone calls regarding costs for this work. A 2011 report by the city of San Francisco, which includes Treasure Island, estimated that “geotechnical stabilization” measures would cost $137 million. Storm drains, soil grading and landscape and open-space improvements would add about $120 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dilip Trivedi, the site’s project manager with international engineering firm Moffatt and Nichol, has been touting the consortium’s efforts for more than a decade. He said in a recent interview that the most built-up parts of the island should be safe from sea rise through at least 2070. Fifty years or so is a reasonable planning horizon for new developments, he added, and additional phased seawall construction can help future generations stay a step ahead of ever-higher tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When you put together significant infrastructure, you don’t want to have to maintain it for about that time,” Trivedi said. “It is what we call project life.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982132\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982132\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"Two construction workers seen on the job on residential tower. \" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">After years of planning, construction has started on residential towers with sweeping views of San Francisco and the Bay Area. At least 20,000 residents are expected to live on the island by 2035. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists, however, commonly try to predict sea rise out at least to the year 2100, a time when some current schoolchildren could be octogenarian residents of the island.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Every contemporary climate model predicts that, even with deep carbon reductions starting this decade, several feet of sea rise are locked in. The debates for climate adaptation strategy are how many feet and how far down the road we should consider.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ever more sophisticated climate predictions, the outlook for sea level rise has continued to darken, indicating that current trends will likely accelerate through the end of the century. In one pessimistic scenario — which researchers say is among the possibilities in a “business as usual” global greenhouse gas emissions future — much of the island could find itself underwater frequently, and some of the most developed areas could occasionally be threatened with flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To home in on Treasure Island’s future, the San Francisco Public Press asked researchers at the United States Geological Survey’s Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, based in Santa Cruz, to create a highly localized model of sea rise conditions under various climate scenarios. They found that bay waters could surge higher than the developers have long been saying publicly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In that model, by 2100 there is a small but not insignificant chance of 4 feet, 11 inches of sea level rise — slightly more than what the island’s engineers have accounted for. Adding in the effects of tides, weather and other transient events, such as in the kind of extreme storm seen once in a century, that total could be 2 feet, 11 inches higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The resulting surge would, at least temporarily, send waves 1 foot, 2 inches higher than the lowest ground floors of some planned housing complexes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982133\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px.png\" alt=\"Facing Sea Level Rise at Treasure Island\" width=\"700\" height=\"691\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px.png 700w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px-160x158.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the project’s engineers never address this possibility in their public narratives, documents they have prepared show they have known about similar scenarios for years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Their own maps, which superimpose flood conditions on existing land elevations, line up fairly closely to the Geological Survey’s findings. Yet the engineers have chosen to downplay the likelihood of these outcomes as they pursued permits to build, arguing that novel construction technologies could make the development invulnerable to flooding under any reasonable course of events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a 2016 sea rise adaptation filing with a regional watershed agency, Moffatt and Nichol included six maps showing potential flood conditions in each construction phase, side by side with maps showing how the planned short- and long-term sea level rise protections would prevent inundation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One map shows 4 feet of sea rise. Before any land improvements, nearly the entire island would have been inundated — up to 8 feet in places — during flooding calculated by FEMA to have a 1% chance of occurring per year. Another part of that document showed a graph that indicated a 4-foot rise was possible by around 2093. The Geological Survey’s extreme scenario model for 2100 puts sea rise closer to 5 feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Trivedi said that the raising of the land under many of the buildings, plus additional shoreline improvements, would protect key infrastructure. Beside that map, the engineers showed how the existing 3.5-mile perimeter wall could be raised by 1 to 3 feet, depending on location, which they said would keep much of the island dry, although a note appended to the diagram said: “Does not show intentional flooding from managed retreat on northern and eastern shorelines — TBD.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Within the last year, regulators have started questioning whether the steps developers are taking are sufficient to guarantee that the island remains dry in the long term.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a community that will be around a while,” said Ethan Lavine, chief of permits for shoreline development for the Bay Conservation and Development Commission. “At a certain point in time, they will need levee protection.” Lavine’s office is pressing Trivedi and his colleagues to use a more cautious view of climate change when assessing whether Treasure Island’s flood prevention techniques can handle what nature might throw at them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When evaluating permit applications, government agencies require developers to reference the “best available science” to assess threats from climate change. In October 2021, the engineers issued an update to the 2016 filing. In it, Trivedi compared his firm’s sea level rise expectations against studies by several scientific bodies, including California’s Ocean Protection Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. His preferred predictions minimized the effect of the worst-case scenarios. The only needed change, he argued, would be to move up the time frame for planning adaptations by as much as five years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982134\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px.png\" alt=\"Fortifying Treasure Island\" width=\"750\" height=\"864\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px.png 750w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px-160x184.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet climate policy experts point out that with significant scientific papers being released each year, guidance for builders has become a moving target. Because they admit a great deal of uncertainty in their predictions, scientists always publish their results in charts that consider an array of environmental assumptions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That gives developers leeway to choose which predictions to focus on when describing the risks to their capital investments. Treasure Island could be the most expensive local project in the region’s history to take advantage of this ambiguity.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Projecting optimism\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>All of Trivedi’s recent public statements conclude that the likelihood of the gloomiest climate scenarios is remote, and that the level of risk to property and lives is insignificant given the proposed engineering fixes. But a close examination of the 2021 adaptation plan offers a few reasons for concern:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>It dismisses high-end forecasts, in which global warming accelerates due to uncontrolled carbon emissions.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It selectively cites climate models that make planned infrastructure appear sufficient to virtually eliminate future flood risk.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It focuses on relatively short time frames, such as 20 or 50 years, while offering little specificity about expected conditions at the end of the century, which falls within the lifetimes of some children alive today.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said in an interview that for planning purposes, he is focused on one recent predicted milestone: 3 feet of sea rise by 2080. In that circumstance, the ground floors of most buildings, to be built upon a now-elevated development pad, would still have a buffer of nearly 4 feet above the average highest tide of today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He also asserted that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific committee organized by the United Nations, recently reported sea rise could be less severe than previously forecasted, based on the track record of recent years. “What has been observed is that sea level rise is not tracking” to the most pessimistic scenarios, he said. But there are reasons to question his conclusion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The localized scenario for 2100 examined by the Geological Survey — the one resulting in water levels 1 foot, 2 inches above some developed areas — relies on a climate change prediction assessed to have a probability of 0.5%, that is, a 1-in-200 statistical chance of occurring. That prediction was published by the California Ocean Protection Council, a body of experts organized by the state government, in recent guidelines for community planning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said the international group’s current report indicates there’s “low confidence in that scenario happening.” When asked for a citation to back up this claim, Trivedi referenced a “localized model” of the findings from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and five other federal agencies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html\">report these agencies jointly issued in February 2022\u003c/a> in fact gave a more nuanced view. In a section titled “Future Mean Sea Level,” the authors did exclude one scenario used by the Ocean Protection Council that had been labeled “extreme” and not given a numerical probability. But that is not the scenario Trivedi said the group ruled out. This same report indicates that the West Coast is likely to see 4 to 8 inches of rise over 30 years, accelerating later in the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Regardless of the pace of the increase, Treasure Island developers say they have contingency plans relying on future residents or taxpayers to fund the construction of progressively higher walls around the urban zone — several feet every few decades. In its latest update, Moffatt and Nichol said sea level rise of 1 foot by 2043 would trigger the plan to elevate the perimeter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A strategy reliant on levees might seem risky in light of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when faulty engineering of levees led to catastrophic flooding of parts of New Orleans that sit below the level of the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico. In light of this recent history, Bay Area regulators are starting to ask whether the Treasure Island plan is entirely watertight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A March 2022 letter from the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the agency that issued the island’s 2016 permit for waterfront areas, called the update too optimistic and tolerant of long-term flooding potential.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Public access along a shoreline and a big mixed-use development require using a medium-to-high-risk projection for sea level rise,” said the commission’s planning manager, Erik Buehmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Reengineering shaky ground\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>On an island built by the government generations ago out of rocks, soil and dredged sand, preparing high-and-dry land would be difficult even if it were not in an earthquake and tsunami zone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In numerous reports and public presentations, Trivedi has said construction workers have elevated land on the 100-acre development pad to 3 feet, 6 inches above the “base flood elevation” — a height calculated by Federal Emergency Management Agency representing a 1% chance of flooding each year. The homes, hotels and businesses there will be set back from the shoreline by 200 to 300 feet on most sides and as much as 1,000 feet from the northern shore because that area is more prone to flooding. Building is planned to roll out in phases through 2035.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Workers have spent years using cranes to repeatedly drop heavy weights to compact the soil. They have driven vibrating probes into the earth, filling the holes with concrete for stabilization. They then piled 1 million cubic yards of soil atop the compacted layer. These measures are intended to prevent the kind of ground liquefaction seen in the Marina District and elsewhere during the devastating 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Other geological improvements include inserting vertical wick drains, akin to long drinking straws, to help remove water from the soil as it compresses. These techniques have been used by civil engineers around the world for more than 30 years to develop areas without easy access to bedrock.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982135\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982135\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A view of compacted yards of soil.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Developers have trucked in and compacted 1 million cubic yards of soil to raise the land underneath new buildings in one strategy to mitigate flood risk. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said these measures, together with a jagged, rocky seawall raised to allow for just over 1 foot of sea rise, would help take energy out of large waves, and the setback would use the landscape to dissipate any possible overtopping before it reaches valuable structures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the same time, the engineers have recognized that much of the island — particularly the low-lying northern end — are indefensible. Areas that have flooded in the past will eventually be sacrificed to rising waters. That strategy has immediate, concrete consequences: Dozens of existing structures, including homes of about 3,000 people currently living there, are set to be demolished to create open space. Over time these areas could be turned into tidal marshland to protect the newly developed areas from storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Regulators balk at a sunny assessment\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the agency most empowered to weigh in on new waterfront building, is hamstrung by a legal mandate to regulate only what happens 100 feet inland, regardless of elevation — an artifact of legislation dating from before climate change was a dominant concern.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 2016 permit the agency issued for improvements on Treasure Island’s margins, including a ferry terminal, required adaptation updates every five years. Moffatt and Nichol’s 2021 update concluded that the original adaptation plans needed few changes, except for possibly needing to accelerate, by five years, the planning process for building higher perimeter levees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Regulators balked at the assessment. In a March 2022 letter, the commission advised Moffatt and Nichol to plan more conservatively. The agency demanded consideration of a 1-in-200 chance sea rise scenario, in which seas rise 6 feet, 11 inches by 2100. Adding in a 100-year storm surge, waves could plausibly overtop portions of the sea wall along the southeastern side by about 1 to 2 feet, and along the northern end by about 1 foot. That is an even worse outcome than that predicted by Geological Survey’s localized flooding model.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The commission said Moffatt and Nichol seemed too dismissive of chances that things could go wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The permittees decided to design the project considering very low risk of sea level rise related impacts” the letter said, noting also that engineers seemed too focused on the short time horizon of 2080.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trivedi counters that the Treasure Island development was never built upon projections of a certain sea level happening by a certain date, because seawalls can, for all practical purposes, be built arbitrarily high, on whatever schedule is needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We adopted an approach where we decided on an allowance we are building into the project,” he said in the interview. “As future projections come out, we will adjust the date of the adaptation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Commission staff met with planners from Moffatt and Nichol last summer to work out the requested additions to the 2021 adaptation strategy. Buehmann, who worked on the original permit, said follow-up discussions were to be expected because the Treasure Island permit was the first since the commission began requiring builders to submit sea rise assessments. “We didn’t expect it to be perfect the first time,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Whatever comes of this process which Trivedi referred to as merely “an internal thing” that was required for the filing — the adaptation plan is unlikely to change significantly, because the development pad is already in place and huge construction cranes are sprouting up on Treasure Island’s skyline. What is left in the playbook is raising future seawalls, ceding the northern open space and the installation of pumps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Government officials have long acknowledged the inevitability of Treasure Island’s relying on artificial barriers. In 2015, Brad McCrea, regulatory program director at the commission, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/major-s-f-bayfront-developments-advance-despite-sea-rise-warnings/\">told the Public Press\u003c/a>: “At the end of the day, this will be a levee-protected community — there’s no getting around that.” Since then, agency staff have not changed their view.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Rapidly outdated climate science\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>To determine how high to raise the building pad, Treasure Island builders consulted several climate studies published as early as 1987 and as recently as 2007. At that point, scientists were predicting that by 2100, oceans could rise as much as 4 feet, 7 inches.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This forecast was echoed by a state panel of scientists and policy experts in 2009, when then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger visited Treasure Island to announce its findings and call for better sea level rise mitigation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982136\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982136\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A view of the San Francisco skyline from Treasure Island.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">When finished, Treasure Island could be a spectacular locale for commuters to San Francisco to settle. But residents will face similar flooding challenges to those in waterfront communities throughout the Bay Area. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Moffatt and Nichol then relied on these studies to anticipate that the oceans would rise 3 feet by 2075. So the company proposed raising the development pad to 3 feet, 6 inches above the predicted levels for a once-in-a-hundred-year flood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Moffatt and Nichol did not spell out a rationale for setting the height of the development pad, as the \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/uncertain-about-rising-seas-developers-using-mid-range-estimate-to-build-up-island/\">Public Press reported in 2010\u003c/a>. The firm did argue that raising it higher could create other problems, such as jeopardizing the island’s stability under the weight of packed soil and adding expense. “At some point it doesn’t become cost-effective — it’s a matter of acceptable levels of risk over your planning horizon,” Trivedi said in an interview then.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, when Treasure Island plans were drawn up, scientific modeling showed wide uncertainty about how much global temperatures could increase. In 2009, scientists around the world were saying that oceans could rise anywhere from a minimum of 3 feet, 3 inches to a maximum of 4 feet, 11 inches by 2100. At that time, the effects of ice melt from land via glaciers, snowpacks and ice caps were little understood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, European and U.S. scientists using satellite imagery to measure the shape of Greenland’s ice sheets say melting is outstripping gains from snowfall. In \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2\">a paper published last August\u003c/a>, they found that no matter how much countries curb emissions, seas will rise by a minimum of 11 inches from this effect alone.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Focusing locally\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The U.S. Geological Survey developed the \u003ca href=\"https://ourcoastourfuture.org/science-and-modeling/\">Coastal Storm Modeling System\u003c/a> to help protect waterfront communities. It simulates \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-40742-z#MOESM1\">the forces behind wave and wind data and translates them into local flood projections\u003c/a> that include tides, storm surges, waves and seasonal events such as El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Public Press requested that the agency simulate a small section of San Francisco Bay, in the vicinity of Treasure Island, relying on probability scenarios for global sea levels in 2100 developed by the \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/opc-climate-change-program/sea-level-rise-2/\">California Ocean Protection Council\u003c/a> in \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/agenda_items/20180314/Item3_Exhibit-A_OPC_SLR_Guidance-rd3.pdf\">a 2018 guidance paper (PDF)\u003c/a>. This report offered up sea rise projections of likelihoods as high as 50% and as low as 0.5%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocean Protection Council’s examination of a wide array of probabilities heavily influenced the Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s critique of the Treasure Island adaptation update. The commission’s biggest concern was that change might happen faster than the engineers were anticipating.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" allow=\"fullscreen 'none'\" frameborder=\"0\" src=\"https://coastal.climatecentral.org/embed/map/13/-122.3736/37.8082/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&water_level=7.8&water_unit=ft\" width=\"100%\" height=\"450\" title=\"Climate Central | Land below 7.8 feet of water\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>Explore sea level rise scenarios using \u003ca href=\"https://climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>’s interactive tool. Here we show floodwaters at 7.8 feet above the present-day high tide line.\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Trivedi said the Ocean Protection Council’s past predictions had already failed. “If you look at the year 2022 projections, follow the OPC formulas,” Trivedi said. “We should have seen about 8 inches of sea level rise since 2000. In reality, it has been about 2 inches or less.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most forecasts predict increased global temperatures due to persistent carbon pollution. But the emissions projections are still hotly contested.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocean Protection Council examined two emissions scenarios. \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200804085912.htm\">One assumed that\u003c/a> carbon dioxide output doubles through 2050. The other imagined more aggressive greenhouse gas reductions — 70% by 2050 and “net zero” emissions by 2080.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the purposes of seeing how bad things could plausibly get, the U.S. Geological Survey used a midlevel emissions scenario. This decision was based on detailed simulations into the next century of swell and waves along the Pacific Ocean. What the researchers found was that paradoxically, milder greenhouse gas levels generated worse storms for California’s coast than do extreme ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s really changed in the research community is that worst-case scenarios have become more common,” said Patrick Barnard, a research geologist with the agency. “The state is asking communities to prepare for these.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This approach helps waterfront areas learn to be more risk-averse to protect property and lives.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Avoiding mistakes of the past\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Foster City is paying a high price for waterfront sprawl. Like Treasure Island, the mid-Peninsula community 25 miles to the south was built entirely on landfill, not unusual in the Bay Area, where efforts to accommodate population growth stretching back to the Gold Rush consumed most of the wetlands and tidal marshes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Foster City did have worries about flooding decades ago. It is shot through with artificial waterways, including two sloughs, several small canals and an artificial lagoon. Barely above sea level before being developed, it would not exist if not for its levees and seawalls.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet, in 2014 FEMA informed Foster City officials that \u003ca href=\"https://fostercitylevee.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/coastal_flood_hazard_study.pdf\">new studies showed (PDF)\u003c/a> the levee system was neither strong nor tall enough to withstand a major storm and the large waves that would result. Update the seawalls and levees, or the entire city would be designated a floodplain, the agency said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sixty years ago, developers there hauled in tons of sand to raise the land several feet to construct thousands of homes in what became a 33,000-resident community. That was a time when climate change was not a part of city planning vernacular. Today workers are busy widening and raising levees and adding interlocking steel plates as a bulwark against the storms federal regulators warned of, as well as rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Treasure Island, which is slated to add 8,000 units of housing to accommodate more than 20,000 residents, is still more than a decade away from build-out. What the engineers put in place there in the next few years could avoid Foster City’s mistakes — or compound them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, some cities are starting to alter blueprints on pace with the evolving science. In October, the Port of San Francisco announced it was collaborating with the Army Corps of Engineers \u003ca href=\"https://sfport.com/files/2022-10/10112022_item_11a_draft_waterfront_adaptation_strategies_final.pdf\">to study how to shore up the city’s seawall along its eastern waterfront (PDF)\u003c/a>, from Fisherman’s Wharf to the Hunters Point Shipyard, to combat both sea rise and earthquake risk. This area includes attractions like the Chase Center sports arena, a project green-lighted before a city-commissioned study surfaced that predicted flooding from sea level rise in the new Mission Bay neighborhood, as \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/projects-sailed-through-despite-dire-flood-study/\">the Public Press reported in 2017\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Port officials now say they anticipate 7 feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. That is 2 feet, 5 inches higher than the level Treasure Island’s developers are planning for in their adaptation strategy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Port’s yearlong effort will consider elevating barriers along the Embarcadero, installing a system of locks at Mission Creek and buying back and cleaning up privately owned landfill areas around Islais Creek to return them to the tidal zone.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Not easy to abandon a home\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In the grips of a housing affordability crisis, San Francisco needs new construction. But is a flood zone the wisest place to build? That could depend on how long we expect buildings to last.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnard, of the U.S. Geological Survey, has traveled to many communities, including Okracoke Island, part of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, to assess how to protect people from storms. In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian shut the island down to visitors. For residents, it was hard to consider leaving a place they have inhabited for seven or eight generations. “You can’t detach people from their place, or their heart,” Barnard said. “They’ll stay until water is up to their nose.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before the developers moved in, Treasure Island had \u003ca href=\"https://censusreporter.org/profiles/15000US060750179031-bg-1-tract-17903-san-francisco-ca/\">roughly 3,000 residents, according to the 2020 Census\u003c/a>, many living in homes built for the U.S. Navy in the mid-20th century when it was a military base. Nearly half have a household income less than $50,000, and many do not speak English.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now these residents are on tenterhooks. Under an agreement with the developer, people who lived on Treasure Island before 2011 are guaranteed new affordable and rent-controlled units. But the wait times and other inconveniences have been tough. Everyone is living in a construction site with an unreliable electrical grid that browns and blacks out frequently.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982137\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982137\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Two people run in a residential area with their dog.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the existing low-lying homes on the island, built decades ago, will be razed to make room for new condos, as well as open space that developers say could be abandoned to bay waters as seas rise. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The new units are supposed to be comparable to what they had, but longtime islander Christoph Opperman said they have been offered “interim” units that, for example, might not have enough space for a family, or lack laundry facilities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re picking us off one neighborhood at a time by making us do two moves,” Opperman said. “We’re not entitled to just anything on the island, but we are entitled to fair treatment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Treasure Island’s planners are essentially acknowledging that they must sacrifice part of the island to the bay, even while pursuing a more built-up urban environment just several hundred feet away. This combination of \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/researchers-abandon-neighborhoods-avoid-flood-zone-to-limit-sea-level-rise/\">advance and retreat\u003c/a> is all part of the plan, the engineers say.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked whether he would move to Treasure Island, Trivedi did not hesitate to say yes, observing that no part of the Bay Area was completely free of danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t see why not,” he said. “I mean, should people be moving to San Francisco, because of the seismic risk? Buildings are being designed to codes. And flooding is the same way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This reporting is supported by grants from the\u003ca href=\"https://www.solutionsjournalism.org/topics/business-and-sustainability\"> Solutions Journalism Network’s Business and Sustainability Initiative\u003c/a> and by the \u003ca href=\"http://fij.org/\">Fund for Investigative Journalism\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "California Snowpack May Hold Record Amount of Water, With Significant Flooding Possible",
"headTitle": "California Snowpack May Hold Record Amount of Water, With Significant Flooding Possible | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>California water officials reported on Monday that preliminary data showed the water contained in the state’s April snowpack is near historic levels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Officials previewed the results after a morning measurement south of Lake Tahoe, where the snowpack exceeded 10.5 feet deep at one of California’s 260 snow measurement locations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state is still waiting for “snow-water equivalent” data to come in from all of those sites, but 2023 may set a historic precedent for the amount of water contained in the state’s April snowpack compared to average levels over the last 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The year 1952 holds the current high on record, at 237% of average. The report is part of a monthly winter and spring custom in the state, where 30% of water comes from melting snow that travels from the mountains down to lower elevations. California’s snowpack usually peaks in April, and the depth of snow affects the state’s water supply all year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, an exceptional number of storms from atmospheric rivers dropped enough precipitation on the state for the snowpack to significantly exceed its early April average. Just a year ago, amid drought, officials were performing the same routine on a small patch of snow that measured “maybe a couple inches,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of snow surveys and the water supply forecasting section at California’s Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All that rain and snow has pulled most of the state out of serious drought for the time being, and shifted attention to the existential threat of flooding. In March, Gov. Gavin Newsom eased some drought restrictions. But water constraints will continue to affect certain parts of the state, even those threatened by flooding. Most of the state’s wells for monitoring groundwater are still below normal levels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even though we have this extraordinary snowpack, we know that the droughts are getting deeper and more frequent, and that means we have to use water efficiently, no matter what our hydrologic conditions,” said Karla Nemeth, director of the Department of Water Resources. “It is possible that … there will be simultaneously water supply challenges that come along with drought, but also water supply challenges that come along with very, very significant flooding.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change will make California’s precipitation levels more extreme. Last year, April snowpack was at 35% of average. This year, statewide automated snow sensors logged April 1 snowpack at 237% of average, higher than any other year since those sensors were installed in the 1980s, the Department of Water Resources said on Monday. As it melts in the spring and summer, the huge snowpack could send a deluge of water to parts of the state already overwhelmed with flooding and the effects of recent storms. Officials are preparing for disaster.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Central Valley, which is home to millions of people and, as a region, grows a significant amount of the country’s food, is particularly vulnerable. A lake once considered the largest body of freshwater west of the Mississippi that’s been dry for decades has returned, flooding more than 10,000 acres of farmland; Tulare Lake has reappeared in past flood years, but on Monday, the Department of Water Resources said it was forecasting record-breaking spring snowmelt in the Tulare Lake region, including upwards of 422% of average runoff in one river watershed in the region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Floods have already breached California levees that protect communities and farmland. California needs to devise both long-term and short-term solutions for climatic and hydrologic extremes, said José Pablo Ortiz Partida, a senior water and climate scientist at the environmental advocacy group the Union of Concerned Scientists.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The short term is protecting those communities that are likely to get flooded,” Ortiz Partida said, adding that long-term planning should include efforts like restoring floodplains to let water flow and recharge underground supplies before it creates damage. California’s historic system of levees, dams and reservoirs controls where the state’s water is able to travel.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Department of Water Resources’ Flood Operations Center “will remain on the ready” as melting begins, said Jeremy Arrich, manager of the department’s Division of Flood Management. How quickly the snow melts and flows to lower elevations will depend on spring temperatures as well as soil conditions — saturated soil and burned soil can contribute to runoff because the ground cannot absorb water. Scientists are also concerned about further rainstorms, which could \u003ca href=\"https://theconversation.com/why-rain-on-snow-in-the-california-mountains-worries-scientists-201742\">spur faster melting if they creep into the mountains\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Based on current measurements, the snowpack’s snow-water content is greatest in the central and southern Sierra. Some northern parts of the state remain in drought, as do some areas along the border with Arizona and Nevada. California has been measuring snowpack since 1910 and has added sensor-driven measurements as well as aerial snow observations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As of April 1, California’s water managers shifted from monitoring snow to monitoring runoff, using data and measurements to determine when and how much water will drain into certain parts of the state. Snow surveys usually begin in January and end in April. This year, officials also plan to conduct snowpack measurements in May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It is truly an extraordinary moment, but we don’t get to stop and enjoy that for too long. We are absolutely very focused on public safety and flood protection,” said Nemeth. “Much more work to be done to adapt to our new climate realities.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Recently wracked by drought, California is now bracing for the possibility that even more water will deluge communities already overwhelmed by floods.",
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"description": "Recently wracked by drought, California is now bracing for the possibility that even more water will deluge communities already overwhelmed by floods.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>California water officials reported on Monday that preliminary data showed the water contained in the state’s April snowpack is near historic levels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Officials previewed the results after a morning measurement south of Lake Tahoe, where the snowpack exceeded 10.5 feet deep at one of California’s 260 snow measurement locations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state is still waiting for “snow-water equivalent” data to come in from all of those sites, but 2023 may set a historic precedent for the amount of water contained in the state’s April snowpack compared to average levels over the last 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The year 1952 holds the current high on record, at 237% of average. The report is part of a monthly winter and spring custom in the state, where 30% of water comes from melting snow that travels from the mountains down to lower elevations. California’s snowpack usually peaks in April, and the depth of snow affects the state’s water supply all year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, an exceptional number of storms from atmospheric rivers dropped enough precipitation on the state for the snowpack to significantly exceed its early April average. Just a year ago, amid drought, officials were performing the same routine on a small patch of snow that measured “maybe a couple inches,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of snow surveys and the water supply forecasting section at California’s Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All that rain and snow has pulled most of the state out of serious drought for the time being, and shifted attention to the existential threat of flooding. In March, Gov. Gavin Newsom eased some drought restrictions. But water constraints will continue to affect certain parts of the state, even those threatened by flooding. Most of the state’s wells for monitoring groundwater are still below normal levels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even though we have this extraordinary snowpack, we know that the droughts are getting deeper and more frequent, and that means we have to use water efficiently, no matter what our hydrologic conditions,” said Karla Nemeth, director of the Department of Water Resources. “It is possible that … there will be simultaneously water supply challenges that come along with drought, but also water supply challenges that come along with very, very significant flooding.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change will make California’s precipitation levels more extreme. Last year, April snowpack was at 35% of average. This year, statewide automated snow sensors logged April 1 snowpack at 237% of average, higher than any other year since those sensors were installed in the 1980s, the Department of Water Resources said on Monday. As it melts in the spring and summer, the huge snowpack could send a deluge of water to parts of the state already overwhelmed with flooding and the effects of recent storms. Officials are preparing for disaster.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Central Valley, which is home to millions of people and, as a region, grows a significant amount of the country’s food, is particularly vulnerable. A lake once considered the largest body of freshwater west of the Mississippi that’s been dry for decades has returned, flooding more than 10,000 acres of farmland; Tulare Lake has reappeared in past flood years, but on Monday, the Department of Water Resources said it was forecasting record-breaking spring snowmelt in the Tulare Lake region, including upwards of 422% of average runoff in one river watershed in the region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Floods have already breached California levees that protect communities and farmland. California needs to devise both long-term and short-term solutions for climatic and hydrologic extremes, said José Pablo Ortiz Partida, a senior water and climate scientist at the environmental advocacy group the Union of Concerned Scientists.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The short term is protecting those communities that are likely to get flooded,” Ortiz Partida said, adding that long-term planning should include efforts like restoring floodplains to let water flow and recharge underground supplies before it creates damage. California’s historic system of levees, dams and reservoirs controls where the state’s water is able to travel.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Department of Water Resources’ Flood Operations Center “will remain on the ready” as melting begins, said Jeremy Arrich, manager of the department’s Division of Flood Management. How quickly the snow melts and flows to lower elevations will depend on spring temperatures as well as soil conditions — saturated soil and burned soil can contribute to runoff because the ground cannot absorb water. Scientists are also concerned about further rainstorms, which could \u003ca href=\"https://theconversation.com/why-rain-on-snow-in-the-california-mountains-worries-scientists-201742\">spur faster melting if they creep into the mountains\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Based on current measurements, the snowpack’s snow-water content is greatest in the central and southern Sierra. Some northern parts of the state remain in drought, as do some areas along the border with Arizona and Nevada. California has been measuring snowpack since 1910 and has added sensor-driven measurements as well as aerial snow observations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As of April 1, California’s water managers shifted from monitoring snow to monitoring runoff, using data and measurements to determine when and how much water will drain into certain parts of the state. Snow surveys usually begin in January and end in April. This year, officials also plan to conduct snowpack measurements in May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It is truly an extraordinary moment, but we don’t get to stop and enjoy that for too long. We are absolutely very focused on public safety and flood protection,” said Nemeth. “Much more work to be done to adapt to our new climate realities.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "This Winter's Floods May Be 'Only a Taste' of the Megafloods to Come, Climate Scientists Warn",
"headTitle": "This Winter’s Floods May Be ‘Only a Taste’ of the Megafloods to Come, Climate Scientists Warn | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>The street in front of Antonio Hueso’s two-story, yellow-daisy-colored home in Pajaro turned into a 5-foot-deep muddy river in the early morning hours of March 12, submerging his baby-blue Ford F-150 truck and flooding his first floor.[pullquote align=\"right\" size=\"medium\" citation=\"Daniel Swain, UCLA climate scientist\"]‘As disruptive as this year’s events have been, we’re nowhere near to a plausible worst-case storm and flood scenario for California.’[/pullquote] “In Pajaro, nothing is going to change, because poor people live here,” said Hueso, 72, a retired farmworker, recounting more than three decades of requests from the community for local, state and federal officials to fix the aging levee on the Pajaro River, 4 miles upstream of his town.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Several weeks after the levee failed — once again — forcing thousands of Pajaro residents to flee in the predawn darkness as water rushed toward their lower-income community in northern Monterey County, Hueso is beginning the arduous task of renovating his flood-damaged home. Over the nearly five decades he’s lived here, this is now the second time he has had to do this — having already lived through an \u003ca href=\"https://www.ksbw.com/article/pajaro-valley-flood-of-1995-described-by-ksbw-8-s-jim-vanderzwaan/42479036\">equally devastating flood in 1995\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Officials say a major levee update could begin as soon as 2025, but Hueso questions whether those plans will account for the changing climate and the increased frequency and ferocity of storms expected.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982087\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982087\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut.jpg\" alt=\"An older man wearing a hat, a plaid shirt and jeans stands in a driveway outside a house. A Ford truck is parked behind him.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Antonio Hueso, 72, in the driveway of his home in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>He is now considering leaving.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m going to fix my house, and when people forget about the flooding, I will sell my house and move to Madera or Fresno,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>‘Nowhere near’ a worst-case scenario\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists warn that what Californians have lived through in recent months is just a preview of what’s to come, with exponentially worse flooding predicted in future years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As disruptive as this year’s events have been, we’re nowhere near to a plausible worst-case storm and flood scenario for California,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before cities and farmland dominated the terrain, much of California was perpetually wet, with a vast system of rivers and waterways running through its core. Catastrophic floods reshaped the landscape every few centuries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain is unequivocal about the links between a warming climate due to the burning of fossil fuels and the significant increase in extreme flooding. A 2022 study Swain co-authored found that \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995\">the warming climate has already doubled the probability of a megaflood\u003c/a> caused by a string of extreme atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Every degree of new warming increases that likelihood even more, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, what was once considered unlikely to happen in our lifetimes “has become quite likely,” Swain said, adding that he wouldn’t be surprised if as many as four megafloods happened just in this century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982091\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982091 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Mud-coated furniture and other belongings are piled outside a home in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’re not necessarily talking about 100 years from now. We’re talking about the next 20 or 30 years,” he said. “We’ve gotten a taste of widespread flooding, but I do think it’s only a taste.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California has already been hit by more than 30 atmospheric rivers since October. But in order to be categorized as an extreme scenario, those weather events would have had to take place in rapid succession, with little or no time in between.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, by contrast, there were breaks of up to a month between each of the storms. And despite the havoc they wreaked, none were technically considered “extreme,” Swain said.[aside label=\"related coverage\" tag=\"flooding\"]“This winter, we’ve gotten lucky, believe it or not, because things could have been significantly worse than they were,” he said. “It is possible to have years where there are multiple atmospheric rivers in a row that are much stronger than what we saw at any point this year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain said the recent storms dropped only about half the precipitation and less than a quarter of the runoff than in the “plausible worst-case scenario” he describes in his study. The resulting “megaflood” conditions, he said, would cause “widespread levee failures, and not just levees protecting primarily agricultural areas, but potentially levees that protect major urban areas.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A KQED analysis of the National Levee Database found that \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981900/fewer-than-10-of-levees-in-the-greater-bay-area-have-a-federal-risk-rating\">only 10% of the nearly 600 levees in the greater Bay Area have a flood-risk rating\u003c/a>. The small percentage that do include the breached levee on the Pajaro River, which is rated “moderate,” as is one on the \u003ca href=\"https://abc7news.com/salinas-river-flooding-levee-break-overflowing-monterey-county-evacuations/12697763/\">Salinas River, which also failed, in January\u003c/a>, displacing thousands. Other levees rated “moderate,” in more urban areas like San José, also are at risk of significant flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve definitely gotten a taste in some areas of what a much lesser version of this would look like,” Swain said. “But we need to be preparing for and stress-testing our infrastructure for much greater events than the ones you’ve seen this year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Flood modeling\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>California is taking Swain’s predictions seriously by potentially funding \u003ca href=\"https://triton.ornl.gov/\">a flood-modeling project\u003c/a> — in partnership with Swain and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory — to gain a better understanding of the impact an extended series of extreme storms would have on existing infrastructure, like levees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a flood model that would resolve the flood risk at one corner of someone’s house versus another corner, for example,” Swain said. “That’s how detailed it would be for the whole state.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982092\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982092 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut.jpg\" alt=\"An older man and younger man stand outside a light-green house, next to a pile of mud-damaged belongings, including a red refrigerator and blue office chair.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Armando Alvarado, 22, and his father, Jesús Valtierra, 52, stand outside their home in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The project involves recording a host of factors, including soil conditions, river flows, forecasted precipitation, real-time snowmelt and runoff, in an effort to calculate the extent of flooding that could result from storms of various intensities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Doing so could also help predict which parts of the state are at greatest risk of flooding and who should evacuate, said Michael Anderson, the state’s climatologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The other thing we can do is start saying, ‘Wow, if that happened, how do we recover?”’ Anderson said. “How do we take that really horrible situation and try and turn it into a chance to maybe rethink how we do some things?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Anderson notes the project, which could take up to a year to complete and would cost in the ballpark of half a million dollars, is coming too late for the many thousands of people already displaced by floods this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately, Mother Nature kind of beat us to the punch here,” he said. “But we’re trying to develop a capability that can work with the scenario to help us better understand how to recognize when things are scaling up so that you get the right level of response dialed in. And it’s a tool we don’t have right now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982093\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982093\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A mud-caked, ramshackle-looking backyard. A door to a small shed stands open. \" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Thick, foul-smelling mud coats the ground in Juan Escutia’s backyard in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Living in the shadow of an aging levee\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>For young people like Armando Alvarado, who now lives in the shadow of a broken levee, the climate crisis is all too real. A week after floodwaters covered Pajaro, the 22-year-old returned home to find his garage coated with a thick layer of sticky, putrid mud — even as the rest of the elevated home his family rents was unscathed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the wet mud in the garage ruined a number of family heirlooms, including his collection of red, white and black ostrich-leather ranchero boots.[pullquote align=\"right\" size=\"medium\" citation= \"Denia Escutia, Pajaro resident\"]‘I call this my home, but is it really my home if they don’t want to help us?’[/pullquote] “They were emotional gifts from my family in Mexico, like uncles that passed away,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Alvarado said he’s worried about how the damage from the flood, and the remodeling it will require, will affect the price of rent in an area of California where a one-bedroom apartment can cost as much as $2,800.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Denia Escutia, a high school senior who lives a few blocks south of Alvarado, woke up early in the morning on March 12 to the sound of water pouring into Escutia’s purple bedroom adorned with K-pop posters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I touched my feet to the rug, and the rug was wet,” said Escutia, 18, who prefers to not use any pronouns. Escutia’s entire house had filled with a thin layer of smelly, muddy water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I woke up my dad, and we started unplugging a bunch of stuff,” Escutia said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982088\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982088\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A young person in rubber boots stands in a small bedroom with posters on the blue-painted wall and mud on the floor.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Climate activist and Pajaro Valley High School senior Denia Escutia, 18, in Escutia’s mud-coated bedroom in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Now, weeks after the flooding and subsequent evacuation, the young climate activist is questioning whether or not to see a future in Pajaro because of the obvious, familiar risks — including droughts, heat waves and flooding — that will likely only get worse with a warming climate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Escutia, whose hometown is Pajaro and who dreams of living safely on a nearby hill, surrounded by family, fears Pajaro has no future because of climate change and the decisions made by those in power that devalue the people living here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think Pajaro deserves climate justice,” said Escutia. “I call this my home, but is it really my home if they don’t want to help us?”\u003cbr>\n[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Climate scientists warn that what Californians have lived through in recent months is just a preview of what's to come, with exponentially worse flooding predicted for the future.",
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"description": "Climate scientists warn that what Californians have lived through in recent months is just a preview of what's to come, with exponentially worse flooding predicted for the future.",
"title": "This Winter's Floods May Be 'Only a Taste' of the Megafloods to Come, Climate Scientists Warn | KQED",
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"headline": "This Winter's Floods May Be 'Only a Taste' of the Megafloods to Come, Climate Scientists Warn",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The street in front of Antonio Hueso’s two-story, yellow-daisy-colored home in Pajaro turned into a 5-foot-deep muddy river in the early morning hours of March 12, submerging his baby-blue Ford F-150 truck and flooding his first floor.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "‘As disruptive as this year’s events have been, we’re nowhere near to a plausible worst-case storm and flood scenario for California.’",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp> “In Pajaro, nothing is going to change, because poor people live here,” said Hueso, 72, a retired farmworker, recounting more than three decades of requests from the community for local, state and federal officials to fix the aging levee on the Pajaro River, 4 miles upstream of his town.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Several weeks after the levee failed — once again — forcing thousands of Pajaro residents to flee in the predawn darkness as water rushed toward their lower-income community in northern Monterey County, Hueso is beginning the arduous task of renovating his flood-damaged home. Over the nearly five decades he’s lived here, this is now the second time he has had to do this — having already lived through an \u003ca href=\"https://www.ksbw.com/article/pajaro-valley-flood-of-1995-described-by-ksbw-8-s-jim-vanderzwaan/42479036\">equally devastating flood in 1995\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Officials say a major levee update could begin as soon as 2025, but Hueso questions whether those plans will account for the changing climate and the increased frequency and ferocity of storms expected.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982087\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982087\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut.jpg\" alt=\"An older man wearing a hat, a plaid shirt and jeans stands in a driveway outside a house. A Ford truck is parked behind him.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63905_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1133-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Antonio Hueso, 72, in the driveway of his home in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>He is now considering leaving.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m going to fix my house, and when people forget about the flooding, I will sell my house and move to Madera or Fresno,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>‘Nowhere near’ a worst-case scenario\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists warn that what Californians have lived through in recent months is just a preview of what’s to come, with exponentially worse flooding predicted in future years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As disruptive as this year’s events have been, we’re nowhere near to a plausible worst-case storm and flood scenario for California,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before cities and farmland dominated the terrain, much of California was perpetually wet, with a vast system of rivers and waterways running through its core. Catastrophic floods reshaped the landscape every few centuries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain is unequivocal about the links between a warming climate due to the burning of fossil fuels and the significant increase in extreme flooding. A 2022 study Swain co-authored found that \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995\">the warming climate has already doubled the probability of a megaflood\u003c/a> caused by a string of extreme atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Every degree of new warming increases that likelihood even more, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, what was once considered unlikely to happen in our lifetimes “has become quite likely,” Swain said, adding that he wouldn’t be surprised if as many as four megafloods happened just in this century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982091\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982091 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63947_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1924-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Mud-coated furniture and other belongings are piled outside a home in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’re not necessarily talking about 100 years from now. We’re talking about the next 20 or 30 years,” he said. “We’ve gotten a taste of widespread flooding, but I do think it’s only a taste.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California has already been hit by more than 30 atmospheric rivers since October. But in order to be categorized as an extreme scenario, those weather events would have had to take place in rapid succession, with little or no time in between.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, by contrast, there were breaks of up to a month between each of the storms. And despite the havoc they wreaked, none were technically considered “extreme,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“This winter, we’ve gotten lucky, believe it or not, because things could have been significantly worse than they were,” he said. “It is possible to have years where there are multiple atmospheric rivers in a row that are much stronger than what we saw at any point this year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain said the recent storms dropped only about half the precipitation and less than a quarter of the runoff than in the “plausible worst-case scenario” he describes in his study. The resulting “megaflood” conditions, he said, would cause “widespread levee failures, and not just levees protecting primarily agricultural areas, but potentially levees that protect major urban areas.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A KQED analysis of the National Levee Database found that \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981900/fewer-than-10-of-levees-in-the-greater-bay-area-have-a-federal-risk-rating\">only 10% of the nearly 600 levees in the greater Bay Area have a flood-risk rating\u003c/a>. The small percentage that do include the breached levee on the Pajaro River, which is rated “moderate,” as is one on the \u003ca href=\"https://abc7news.com/salinas-river-flooding-levee-break-overflowing-monterey-county-evacuations/12697763/\">Salinas River, which also failed, in January\u003c/a>, displacing thousands. Other levees rated “moderate,” in more urban areas like San José, also are at risk of significant flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve definitely gotten a taste in some areas of what a much lesser version of this would look like,” Swain said. “But we need to be preparing for and stress-testing our infrastructure for much greater events than the ones you’ve seen this year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Flood modeling\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>California is taking Swain’s predictions seriously by potentially funding \u003ca href=\"https://triton.ornl.gov/\">a flood-modeling project\u003c/a> — in partnership with Swain and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory — to gain a better understanding of the impact an extended series of extreme storms would have on existing infrastructure, like levees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a flood model that would resolve the flood risk at one corner of someone’s house versus another corner, for example,” Swain said. “That’s how detailed it would be for the whole state.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982092\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982092 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut.jpg\" alt=\"An older man and younger man stand outside a light-green house, next to a pile of mud-damaged belongings, including a red refrigerator and blue office chair.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63951_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1970-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Armando Alvarado, 22, and his father, Jesús Valtierra, 52, stand outside their home in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The project involves recording a host of factors, including soil conditions, river flows, forecasted precipitation, real-time snowmelt and runoff, in an effort to calculate the extent of flooding that could result from storms of various intensities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Doing so could also help predict which parts of the state are at greatest risk of flooding and who should evacuate, said Michael Anderson, the state’s climatologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The other thing we can do is start saying, ‘Wow, if that happened, how do we recover?”’ Anderson said. “How do we take that really horrible situation and try and turn it into a chance to maybe rethink how we do some things?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Anderson notes the project, which could take up to a year to complete and would cost in the ballpark of half a million dollars, is coming too late for the many thousands of people already displaced by floods this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately, Mother Nature kind of beat us to the punch here,” he said. “But we’re trying to develop a capability that can work with the scenario to help us better understand how to recognize when things are scaling up so that you get the right level of response dialed in. And it’s a tool we don’t have right now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982093\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982093\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A mud-caked, ramshackle-looking backyard. A door to a small shed stands open. \" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63915_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1253-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Thick, foul-smelling mud coats the ground in Juan Escutia’s backyard in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Living in the shadow of an aging levee\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>For young people like Armando Alvarado, who now lives in the shadow of a broken levee, the climate crisis is all too real. A week after floodwaters covered Pajaro, the 22-year-old returned home to find his garage coated with a thick layer of sticky, putrid mud — even as the rest of the elevated home his family rents was unscathed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the wet mud in the garage ruined a number of family heirlooms, including his collection of red, white and black ostrich-leather ranchero boots.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp> “They were emotional gifts from my family in Mexico, like uncles that passed away,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Alvarado said he’s worried about how the damage from the flood, and the remodeling it will require, will affect the price of rent in an area of California where a one-bedroom apartment can cost as much as $2,800.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Denia Escutia, a high school senior who lives a few blocks south of Alvarado, woke up early in the morning on March 12 to the sound of water pouring into Escutia’s purple bedroom adorned with K-pop posters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I touched my feet to the rug, and the rug was wet,” said Escutia, 18, who prefers to not use any pronouns. Escutia’s entire house had filled with a thin layer of smelly, muddy water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I woke up my dad, and we started unplugging a bunch of stuff,” Escutia said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982088\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982088\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A young person in rubber boots stands in a small bedroom with posters on the blue-painted wall and mud on the floor.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1277\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/03/RS63917_03242023_kqed_pajaroreturning-1292-qut-1536x1022.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Climate activist and Pajaro Valley High School senior Denia Escutia, 18, in Escutia’s mud-coated bedroom in Pajaro on March 24, 2023. \u003ccite>(Kori Suzuki/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Now, weeks after the flooding and subsequent evacuation, the young climate activist is questioning whether or not to see a future in Pajaro because of the obvious, familiar risks — including droughts, heat waves and flooding — that will likely only get worse with a warming climate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Escutia, whose hometown is Pajaro and who dreams of living safely on a nearby hill, surrounded by family, fears Pajaro has no future because of climate change and the decisions made by those in power that devalue the people living here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think Pajaro deserves climate justice,” said Escutia. “I call this my home, but is it really my home if they don’t want to help us?”\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"tagline": "Exploring the Bay Area, one question at a time",
"info": "KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.",
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},
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"info": "KQED’s statewide radio news program providing daily coverage of issues, trends and public policy decisions.",
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"order": 8
},
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"airtime": "SUN 1pm-2pm, TUE 10pm, WED 1am",
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"source": "City Arts & Lectures"
},
"link": "https://www.cityarts.net",
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"order": 1
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"info": "\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />",
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"id": "commonwealth-club",
"title": "Commonwealth Club of California Podcast",
"info": "The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. As a non-partisan forum, The Club brings to the public airwaves diverse viewpoints on important topics. The Club's weekly radio broadcast - the oldest in the U.S., dating back to 1924 - is carried across the nation on public radio stations and is now podcasting. Our website archive features audio of our recent programs, as well as selected speeches from our long and distinguished history. This podcast feed is usually updated twice a week and is always un-edited.",
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"source": "Commonwealth Club of California"
},
"link": "/radio/program/commonwealth-club",
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"info": "KQED’s live call-in program discussing local, state, national and international issues, as well as in-depth interviews.",
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"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Forum-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"order": 9
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"info": "A live production of NPR and WBUR Boston, in collaboration with stations across the country, Here & Now reflects the fluid world of news as it's happening in the middle of the day, with timely, in-depth news, interviews and conversation. Hosted by Robin Young, Jeremy Hobson and Tonya Mosley.",
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"hidden-brain": {
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"info": "Shankar Vedantam uses science and storytelling to reveal the unconscious patterns that drive human behavior, shape our choices and direct our relationships.",
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"airtime": "SUN 7pm-8pm",
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"source": "NPR"
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"how-i-built-this": {
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"info": "Guy Raz dives into the stories behind some of the world's best known companies. How I Built This weaves a narrative journey about innovators, entrepreneurs and idealists—and the movements they built.",
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"airtime": "SUN 7:30pm-8pm",
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"hyphenacion": {
"id": "hyphenacion",
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"tagline": "Where conversation and cultura meet",
"info": "What kind of no sabo word is Hyphenación? For us, it’s about living within a hyphenation. Like being a third-gen Mexican-American from the Texas border now living that Bay Area Chicano life. Like Xorje! Each week we bring together a couple of hyphenated Latinos to talk all about personal life choices: family, careers, relationships, belonging … everything is on the table. ",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Hyphenacion_FinalAssets_PodcastTile.png",
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},
"jerrybrown": {
"id": "jerrybrown",
"title": "The Political Mind of Jerry Brown",
"tagline": "Lessons from a lifetime in politics",
"info": "The Political Mind of Jerry Brown brings listeners the wisdom of the former Governor, Mayor, and presidential candidate. Scott Shafer interviewed Brown for more than 40 hours, covering the former governor's life and half-century in the political game – and Brown has some lessons he'd like to share. ",
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"order": 18
},
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},
"latino-usa": {
"id": "latino-usa",
"title": "Latino USA",
"airtime": "MON 1am-2am, SUN 6pm-7pm",
"info": "Latino USA, the radio journal of news and culture, is the only national, English-language radio program produced from a Latino perspective.",
"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/latinoUsa.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "http://latinousa.org/",
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},
"link": "/radio/program/latino-usa",
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"apple": "https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=79681317&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory",
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"rss": "https://feeds.npr.org/510016/podcast.xml"
}
},
"marketplace": {
"id": "marketplace",
"title": "Marketplace",
"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 4pm-4:30pm, MON-WED 6:30pm-7pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Marketplace-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.marketplace.org/",
"meta": {
"site": "news",
"source": "American Public Media"
},
"link": "/radio/program/marketplace",
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"rss": "https://feeds.publicradio.org/public_feeds/marketplace-pm/rss/rss"
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},
"masters-of-scale": {
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"title": "Masters of Scale",
"info": "Masters of Scale is an original podcast in which LinkedIn co-founder and Greylock Partner Reid Hoffman sets out to describe and prove theories that explain how great entrepreneurs take their companies from zero to a gazillion in ingenious fashion.",
"airtime": "Every other Wednesday June 12 through October 16 at 8pm (repeats Thursdays at 2am)",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "https://mastersofscale.com/",
"meta": {
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"source": "WaitWhat"
},
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"rss": "https://rss.art19.com/masters-of-scale"
}
},
"mindshift": {
"id": "mindshift",
"title": "MindShift",
"tagline": "A podcast about the future of learning and how we raise our kids",
"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Mindshift-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
"imageAlt": "KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn",
"officialWebsiteLink": "/mindshift/",
"meta": {
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 12
},
"link": "/podcasts/mindshift",
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5",
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"stitcher": "https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/stories-teachers-share",
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}
},
"morning-edition": {
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