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"content": "\u003cp>The San Juan Basin, in the northwestern part of New Mexico, is one of the oldest \u003ca href=\"https://geoinfo.nmt.edu/geoscience/research/home.cfml?id=44\">federal lands drilling areas\u003c/a> in the U.S. It’s a huge swath of barren, brown high desert that first started booming in the 1950s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, some 40,000 wells pockmark the rolling hills of the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npca.org/articles/2746-an-insider-s-guide-to-the-four-corners\">Four Corners region\u003c/a>, several thousand of them still reliably pump up light sweet crude oil and natural gas through the old iconic pumpjacks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this historic and remote drilling region has struggled for the last decade or more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It used to be an epicenter,” says Sean Dugan, the third-generation president of Dugan Production, a family drilling business in the boom-and-bust town of Farmington. “When the majors left, they took all their rigs with them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He’s talking about the major international companies like Chevron and BP that started pulling out of the basin after the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/series/112578215/financial-crisis-one-year-and-counting\">2008 financial crisis\u003c/a>, namely when natural gas prices slumped.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many left for shale drilling areas like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2018/11/23/669198912/after-struggles-north-dakota-grows-into-its-ongoing-oil-boom\">Bakken in North Dakota\u003c/a> or the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/06/09/1179415899/oil-production-gas-prices-opec-climate-change-permian-basin-texas\">Permian Basin\u003c/a> in southern New Mexico and Texas where drilling on private land was more productive, lucrative and economical.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today it’s only the smaller independents like Dugan still hanging on. But he sees potential for \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/16/nx-s1-5359013/trump-orders-coal-revival-market-favors-natural-gas\">another boom\u003c/a> out here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Oh yeah, we’ve got a lot of tricks up our sleeves,” says the cheerful and charismatic Dugan. “The basin has a lot to give. We’ve barely begun to tap its potential.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12037555\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1600px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12037555\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1200\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20.jpg 1600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sean Dugan’s family drilling company has been a steady local employer for decades in New Mexico. \u003ccite>(Kirk Siegler/NPR)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Local drillers say more than half the natural gas reserves in this region have yet to be tapped. And the hope is all the new computer data centers being built in places like Phoenix will want cheaper gas-powered electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But watching a group of roughnecks on a rig in grubby overalls moving huge, long steel pipes, Dugan’s smile begins to fade to a smirk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Your polypipe, which is what these pipelines are made out of now. That all comes from the Asian markets,” Dugan says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dugan says the cost of doing business out here was already expensive and President Trump’s trade war is making it worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Trump’s trade war is causing anxiety in the oil patch\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Many oil and gas company executives, particularly the larger ones, initially celebrated Trump’s return to the White House. But lately, that optimism for higher oil company profits appears to have faded amid growing \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5354927/recession-trump-tariffs\">fears of a recession\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You know, drill baby drill and lower oil prices are not simpatico,” says George Sharpe, investment manager for Merrion Oil and Gas, one of the San Juan Basin’s oldest drillers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, Sharpe says, if Trump tanks the economy and oil prices hover at or below the cost of production, you can remove all the regulatory barriers you want, but companies will be wary of drilling new wells.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think the whole tariff thing is going to backfire on Trump,” Sharpe says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12037556\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1600px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12037556\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1067\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21.jpg 1600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">President Donald Trump speaks with reporters at the White House on Wednesday in Washington. Many oil and gas company executives, particularly the larger ones, initially celebrated Trump’s return as president. But lately, that optimism for higher oil company profits appears to have faded amid growing fears of a recession. \u003ccite>(Alex Brandon/AP)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Dugan says he wakes up every morning and checks the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/22/nx-s1-5372588/trump-tariffs-imf-trade-world-economy\">news on tariffs\u003c/a>. He used to spend about $80,000 on a load of pipes that come from South Korea. Now, he figures it could be up to $120,000. His company was one of the few locally to avoid mass layoffs at the start of the pandemic in 2020 when \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/20/838521862/free-falling-oil-prices-keep-diving-as-demand-disappears\">oil prices tanked\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=news_12026185 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/11/TrumpOilGasRegulationsAP-1020x680.jpg']\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today Dugan says he wants to plan for ten years out. But he doesn’t even know what’s going to happen tomorrow.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It just kneecaps ya when all this uncertainty and volatility is in the air,” Dugan says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>President Trump \u003ca href=\"https://apps.npr.org/2024-election-results/new-mexico.html?section=key-races\">lost New Mexico handily\u003c/a> in the presidential election last year, but he did rack up big wins in rural counties like this. In interviews with local industry and community leaders, it’s clear there is still plenty of hope that the Trump administration’s newer, revised slogan of “build baby build” will make it easier to get a new gas pipeline built between the San Juan Basin and Mexico.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is optimism in the air. Our workers welcome energy policies that put American energy first,” Farmington Mayor Nate Duckett said, noting in an email that his town was built on top of one of the richest gas and coal fields in the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Boom and bust energy towns are in limbo\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>On the day President Trump issued \u003ca href=\"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/reinvigorating-americas-beautiful-clean-coal-industry-and-amending-executive-order-14241/\">four new executive orders\u003c/a> to revive \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/16/nx-s1-5359013/trump-orders-coal-revival-market-favors-natural-gas\">America’s coal industry\u003c/a>, local environmentalist Dave Fosdeck was driving his four-wheel drive truck to the top of a hogback for what turned out to be a bit of an apocalyptic view.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Here we are up on top,” Fosdeck said, hopping out for a 360 view. “Four Corners power plant about 11 o’clock there, and San Juan Generating station up to our left at 9 o’clock.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12037557\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1600px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12037557\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1200\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22.jpg 1600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the oil and gas jobs in New Mexico’s San Juan Basin today are servicing or decommissioning wells like these. \u003ccite>(Kirk Siegler/NPR)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There was the enormous San Juan coal plant — \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/10/05/nx-s1-5076973/coal-power-plant-demolition-navajo-new-mexico\">currently being dismantled\u003c/a> — a hulking gash of twisted metal and steel glaring in the desert sun. The Four Corners plant on the Navajo Nation is supposed to be decommissioned in 2031, but Trump has promised to stop coal plants from closing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s about supply and demand and also the cost of producing in this remote region compared to like, Texas or Louisiana,” Fosdeck says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But people here are tired of seeing Farmington in the headlines as a town that’s losing population.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s opportunity, but, ugh, it’s hard,” Fosdeck says. “It’s hard to find an area like this that has been so dependent on oil and gas trying to transition to something else.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmington has \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/09/28/1202187607/fossil-fuel-blm-new-mexico-outdoor-recreation-biden-federal-land-oil-gas\">tried to diversify\u003c/a> by promoting tourism and outdoor recreation on all the federal public lands in the region. But those jobs don’t pay nearly as much. With virtually no new drilling here for now, most of the oilfield work is in servicing existing wells, or decommissioning them, to prevent the leaking of methane.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Alex Prieto is supervising a crew that’s laying production pipe into a shuttered well, before they’ll pump cement and cap it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He’s grateful for the job in a time when so much feels uncertain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I love it, just keeping my head busy,” Prieto says. “I provide for my family which is the most important thing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It also means he doesn’t have to travel to other oil patches out of state for work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As long as we’re working we’re happy. The oil field is the main thing out here,” Prieto says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But no one seems to be preparing for a lot of new hiring here at this point, despite promises of a new oil and gas boom on federal land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is the latest report in an occasional NPR National Desk series examining how President Trump’s early actions are playing out across America.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The San Juan Basin, in the northwestern part of New Mexico, is one of the oldest \u003ca href=\"https://geoinfo.nmt.edu/geoscience/research/home.cfml?id=44\">federal lands drilling areas\u003c/a> in the U.S. It’s a huge swath of barren, brown high desert that first started booming in the 1950s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, some 40,000 wells pockmark the rolling hills of the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npca.org/articles/2746-an-insider-s-guide-to-the-four-corners\">Four Corners region\u003c/a>, several thousand of them still reliably pump up light sweet crude oil and natural gas through the old iconic pumpjacks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this historic and remote drilling region has struggled for the last decade or more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It used to be an epicenter,” says Sean Dugan, the third-generation president of Dugan Production, a family drilling business in the boom-and-bust town of Farmington. “When the majors left, they took all their rigs with them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He’s talking about the major international companies like Chevron and BP that started pulling out of the basin after the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/series/112578215/financial-crisis-one-year-and-counting\">2008 financial crisis\u003c/a>, namely when natural gas prices slumped.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many left for shale drilling areas like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2018/11/23/669198912/after-struggles-north-dakota-grows-into-its-ongoing-oil-boom\">Bakken in North Dakota\u003c/a> or the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/06/09/1179415899/oil-production-gas-prices-opec-climate-change-permian-basin-texas\">Permian Basin\u003c/a> in southern New Mexico and Texas where drilling on private land was more productive, lucrative and economical.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today it’s only the smaller independents like Dugan still hanging on. But he sees potential for \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/16/nx-s1-5359013/trump-orders-coal-revival-market-favors-natural-gas\">another boom\u003c/a> out here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Oh yeah, we’ve got a lot of tricks up our sleeves,” says the cheerful and charismatic Dugan. “The basin has a lot to give. We’ve barely begun to tap its potential.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12037555\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1600px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12037555\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1200\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20.jpg 1600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-20-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sean Dugan’s family drilling company has been a steady local employer for decades in New Mexico. \u003ccite>(Kirk Siegler/NPR)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Local drillers say more than half the natural gas reserves in this region have yet to be tapped. And the hope is all the new computer data centers being built in places like Phoenix will want cheaper gas-powered electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But watching a group of roughnecks on a rig in grubby overalls moving huge, long steel pipes, Dugan’s smile begins to fade to a smirk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Your polypipe, which is what these pipelines are made out of now. That all comes from the Asian markets,” Dugan says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dugan says the cost of doing business out here was already expensive and President Trump’s trade war is making it worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Trump’s trade war is causing anxiety in the oil patch\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Many oil and gas company executives, particularly the larger ones, initially celebrated Trump’s return to the White House. But lately, that optimism for higher oil company profits appears to have faded amid growing \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5354927/recession-trump-tariffs\">fears of a recession\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You know, drill baby drill and lower oil prices are not simpatico,” says George Sharpe, investment manager for Merrion Oil and Gas, one of the San Juan Basin’s oldest drillers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, Sharpe says, if Trump tanks the economy and oil prices hover at or below the cost of production, you can remove all the regulatory barriers you want, but companies will be wary of drilling new wells.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think the whole tariff thing is going to backfire on Trump,” Sharpe says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12037556\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1600px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12037556\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1067\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21.jpg 1600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-21-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">President Donald Trump speaks with reporters at the White House on Wednesday in Washington. Many oil and gas company executives, particularly the larger ones, initially celebrated Trump’s return as president. But lately, that optimism for higher oil company profits appears to have faded amid growing fears of a recession. \u003ccite>(Alex Brandon/AP)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Dugan says he wakes up every morning and checks the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/22/nx-s1-5372588/trump-tariffs-imf-trade-world-economy\">news on tariffs\u003c/a>. He used to spend about $80,000 on a load of pipes that come from South Korea. Now, he figures it could be up to $120,000. His company was one of the few locally to avoid mass layoffs at the start of the pandemic in 2020 when \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/20/838521862/free-falling-oil-prices-keep-diving-as-demand-disappears\">oil prices tanked\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today Dugan says he wants to plan for ten years out. But he doesn’t even know what’s going to happen tomorrow.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It just kneecaps ya when all this uncertainty and volatility is in the air,” Dugan says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>President Trump \u003ca href=\"https://apps.npr.org/2024-election-results/new-mexico.html?section=key-races\">lost New Mexico handily\u003c/a> in the presidential election last year, but he did rack up big wins in rural counties like this. In interviews with local industry and community leaders, it’s clear there is still plenty of hope that the Trump administration’s newer, revised slogan of “build baby build” will make it easier to get a new gas pipeline built between the San Juan Basin and Mexico.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is optimism in the air. Our workers welcome energy policies that put American energy first,” Farmington Mayor Nate Duckett said, noting in an email that his town was built on top of one of the richest gas and coal fields in the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Boom and bust energy towns are in limbo\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>On the day President Trump issued \u003ca href=\"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/reinvigorating-americas-beautiful-clean-coal-industry-and-amending-executive-order-14241/\">four new executive orders\u003c/a> to revive \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/16/nx-s1-5359013/trump-orders-coal-revival-market-favors-natural-gas\">America’s coal industry\u003c/a>, local environmentalist Dave Fosdeck was driving his four-wheel drive truck to the top of a hogback for what turned out to be a bit of an apocalyptic view.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Here we are up on top,” Fosdeck said, hopping out for a 360 view. “Four Corners power plant about 11 o’clock there, and San Juan Generating station up to our left at 9 o’clock.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12037557\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1600px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12037557\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1200\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22.jpg 1600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-22-1536x1152.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the oil and gas jobs in New Mexico’s San Juan Basin today are servicing or decommissioning wells like these. \u003ccite>(Kirk Siegler/NPR)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There was the enormous San Juan coal plant — \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/10/05/nx-s1-5076973/coal-power-plant-demolition-navajo-new-mexico\">currently being dismantled\u003c/a> — a hulking gash of twisted metal and steel glaring in the desert sun. The Four Corners plant on the Navajo Nation is supposed to be decommissioned in 2031, but Trump has promised to stop coal plants from closing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s about supply and demand and also the cost of producing in this remote region compared to like, Texas or Louisiana,” Fosdeck says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But people here are tired of seeing Farmington in the headlines as a town that’s losing population.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s opportunity, but, ugh, it’s hard,” Fosdeck says. “It’s hard to find an area like this that has been so dependent on oil and gas trying to transition to something else.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmington has \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/09/28/1202187607/fossil-fuel-blm-new-mexico-outdoor-recreation-biden-federal-land-oil-gas\">tried to diversify\u003c/a> by promoting tourism and outdoor recreation on all the federal public lands in the region. But those jobs don’t pay nearly as much. With virtually no new drilling here for now, most of the oilfield work is in servicing existing wells, or decommissioning them, to prevent the leaking of methane.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Alex Prieto is supervising a crew that’s laying production pipe into a shuttered well, before they’ll pump cement and cap it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He’s grateful for the job in a time when so much feels uncertain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I love it, just keeping my head busy,” Prieto says. “I provide for my family which is the most important thing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It also means he doesn’t have to travel to other oil patches out of state for work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As long as we’re working we’re happy. The oil field is the main thing out here,” Prieto says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But no one seems to be preparing for a lot of new hiring here at this point, despite promises of a new oil and gas boom on federal land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is the latest report in an occasional NPR National Desk series examining how President Trump’s early actions are playing out across America.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>The spring housing market was supposed to boom. Instead, it’s whimpering.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Existing home sales in March slumped 5.9% from February — the largest month-to-month decline since November 2022 when seasonally adjusted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Compared to a year ago, sales in March were down 2.4% from March 2024.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The decline came as something of a surprise, following \u003ca href=\"https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-accelerated-4-2-in-february\">an uptick in sales\u003c/a> in February. \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/03/nx-s1-5349453/spring-home-buying-mortgage-rates\">More inventory\u003c/a> has been hitting the market, which was expected to drive sales, and spring tends to be among the busiest times for home sales, as parents with kids try to move when school is out for the summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Instead, the sales figures suggest that the housing market is in a continued slump, hampered by high mortgage rates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After inching down in the first months of the year, mortgage rates have jumped higher in the last couple weeks, as President Trump’s tariff threats have roiled bond markets that help influence mortgage rates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.81% over the last week, \u003ca href=\"https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms\">according to data\u003c/a> from Freddie Mac. In March and early April, rates were closer to 6.6%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=news_12036934 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2019/03/RS35749_GettyImages-452284506-qut-1020x681.jpg']\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, home prices are also still climbing — though more slowly than before. The median existing home sales price for March was $403,700. That’s up from up $392,900 from one year ago, and from $398,400 in February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After inching down in the first months of the year, mortgage rates have jumped higher in the last couple weeks, as President Trump’s tariff threats have roiled bond markets that help influence mortgage rates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.81% over the last week, \u003ca href=\"https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms\">according to data\u003c/a> from Freddie Mac. In March and early April, rates were closer to 6.6%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, home prices are also still climbing — though more slowly than before. The median existing home sales price for March was $403,700. That’s up from up $392,900 from one year ago, and from $398,400 in February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The last two years have been incredibly slow, with existing home sales \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/01/24/nx-s1-5272647/home-sales-housing-affordability\">at their lowest levels\u003c/a> since the mid-1990s.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>New home sales are rosier\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Elsewhere in the market, a different story is unfolding. Sales of \u003cem>new\u003c/em> single-family homes were up 7.4% from February, and 6% higher than a year ago. That’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according to data (PDF)\u003c/a> from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released on Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The median sales price of new homes sold in March 2025 was $403,600 — a smidge lower than the median sales price of an \u003cem>existing\u003c/em> home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s unusual: There’s usually a 15–20% premium for new homes, said Yun. This month’s price parity between new and existing homes is an indication that homebuilders are more into constructing smaller, cheaper homes — and not the high-priced McMansions of yore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That supply is good news for buyers who’ve been priced out of the existing home market — though some regions, especially the Northeast, are building scant little new housing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nonetheless, there are signs that this year’s spring market overall might be a weak one.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mortgage applications decreased 12.7% from one week earlier, \u003ca href=\"https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/04/23/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey\">according to data\u003c/a> from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending April 18.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s the result of mortgage rates jumping in the last two weeks, said MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“[M]any potential borrowers will likely stay on the sidelines until they have a better idea of the direction that rates, and the economy, are headed,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The spring housing market was supposed to boom. Instead, it’s whimpering.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Existing home sales in March slumped 5.9% from February — the largest month-to-month decline since November 2022 when seasonally adjusted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Compared to a year ago, sales in March were down 2.4% from March 2024.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The decline came as something of a surprise, following \u003ca href=\"https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-accelerated-4-2-in-february\">an uptick in sales\u003c/a> in February. \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/03/nx-s1-5349453/spring-home-buying-mortgage-rates\">More inventory\u003c/a> has been hitting the market, which was expected to drive sales, and spring tends to be among the busiest times for home sales, as parents with kids try to move when school is out for the summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Instead, the sales figures suggest that the housing market is in a continued slump, hampered by high mortgage rates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After inching down in the first months of the year, mortgage rates have jumped higher in the last couple weeks, as President Trump’s tariff threats have roiled bond markets that help influence mortgage rates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.81% over the last week, \u003ca href=\"https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms\">according to data\u003c/a> from Freddie Mac. In March and early April, rates were closer to 6.6%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, home prices are also still climbing — though more slowly than before. The median existing home sales price for March was $403,700. That’s up from up $392,900 from one year ago, and from $398,400 in February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After inching down in the first months of the year, mortgage rates have jumped higher in the last couple weeks, as President Trump’s tariff threats have roiled bond markets that help influence mortgage rates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.81% over the last week, \u003ca href=\"https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms\">according to data\u003c/a> from Freddie Mac. In March and early April, rates were closer to 6.6%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, home prices are also still climbing — though more slowly than before. The median existing home sales price for March was $403,700. That’s up from up $392,900 from one year ago, and from $398,400 in February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The last two years have been incredibly slow, with existing home sales \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/01/24/nx-s1-5272647/home-sales-housing-affordability\">at their lowest levels\u003c/a> since the mid-1990s.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>New home sales are rosier\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Elsewhere in the market, a different story is unfolding. Sales of \u003cem>new\u003c/em> single-family homes were up 7.4% from February, and 6% higher than a year ago. That’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according to data (PDF)\u003c/a> from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released on Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The median sales price of new homes sold in March 2025 was $403,600 — a smidge lower than the median sales price of an \u003cem>existing\u003c/em> home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s unusual: There’s usually a 15–20% premium for new homes, said Yun. This month’s price parity between new and existing homes is an indication that homebuilders are more into constructing smaller, cheaper homes — and not the high-priced McMansions of yore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That supply is good news for buyers who’ve been priced out of the existing home market — though some regions, especially the Northeast, are building scant little new housing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nonetheless, there are signs that this year’s spring market overall might be a weak one.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mortgage applications decreased 12.7% from one week earlier, \u003ca href=\"https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/04/23/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey\">according to data\u003c/a> from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending April 18.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s the result of mortgage rates jumping in the last two weeks, said MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“[M]any potential borrowers will likely stay on the sidelines until they have a better idea of the direction that rates, and the economy, are headed,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://x.com/chulbolpandey/status/1909127476988481650\">Formal wear at the club\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8j6UFKc/\">Lady Gaga’s pivot back to pop music\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/confusionm8trix/status/1909064622059016334\">The resurgence of the ‘flash mob.’\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/botticellibimbo/status/1527390388167659528\">Dwindling attendance at strip clubs.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even before the markets were plunged into chaos by \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/03/nx-s1-5349403/trump-unveils-10-tariff-on-all-imports-and-reciprocal-tariffs-dozens-of-economies\">President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement \u003c/a>at the start of the month, a certain genre of meme was spreading across social media: posts labeling a comically wide variety of observations and situations like these as “recession indicators.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As uncertainty grows in every corner of the U.S. economy — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034730/trump-tariffs-shake-world-economy-rattling-silicon-valley\">Silicon Valley\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/business/trump-tariffs-cars-auto-industry.html\">manufacturing\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/trump-s-tariffs-are-expected-to-raise-new-home-20258385.php\">housing\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5352901/tariffs-trump-asian-grocery-stores\">retail\u003c/a>, to name a few — internet users who might not even have lived through the \u003ca href=\"https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-of-200709\">Great Recession of the late 2000s\u003c/a> or the \u003ca href=\"https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/recession-of-1981-82\">recession of 1981\u003c/a> see signs of imminent recession almost everywhere. Supposed indicators include people \u003ca href=\"https://www.instagram.com/reel/DHlQ55GxXSk/\">exiting the job market in favor of law school\u003c/a>, saving money by \u003ca href=\"https://www.tiktok.com/@djgoss1p/video/7490713864733232430?_r=1&_t=ZP-8vMxodNOD8h\">cooking at home\u003c/a> or \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/lilgrapefruits/status/1907260849594798085\">streaming years-old episodes of \u003cem>American Idol\u003c/em>.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/lilgrapefruits/status/1907260849594798085\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the recession indicator trope is not new — \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/botticellibimbo/status/1527390388167659528\">the viral tweet from a dancer linking declining strip club attendance and U.S. economic health\u003c/a> was posted in 2022 — the 2025 meme strain specifically focuses on the apparent resurgence of 2000s pop culture as a sign of the economic times, with an increasingly absurdist twist. This is how we get the recession indicator of British singer-songwriter \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/PopCrave/status/1906028446028820689\">Ed Sheeran, whose debut album was released in 2011, being “cool” again\u003c/a> — or \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/BivouacChillin/status/1907609632001958122\">a rare public sighting of a child star from TV’s Malcolm in the Middle\u003c/a> (which debuted in 2000: the same year that \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/04/23/397113284/15-years-after-the-dot-com-bust-nasdaq-closes-at-new-record\">the dot-com bubble burst in U.S. stock markets\u003c/a>).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/PopCrave/status/1906028446028820689\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But in other posts, “throwback” leanings \u003cem>are \u003c/em>directly linked to financial behavior — the idea that 2010s formal wear-at-the-club style is making a comeback precisely because it \u003ca href=\"https://www.voguebusiness.com/story/fashion/why-is-everything-in-fashion-suddenly-a-recession-indicator\">allows the wearer to save money by reusing office clothing\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/chulbolpandey/status/1909127476988481650\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As purposefully goofy as many of these observations are, there’s a serious question here: What can recession indicator memes actually tell us — or even predict — about the national economy? And what do online trends like this communicate about how regular people experience economic uncertainty?\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>On the hunt for signs of a recession\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>At the time of writing, the U.S. is \u003cem>not \u003c/em>currently in a recession, although \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5354927/recession-trump-tariffs\">experts have warned that the uncertainty stoked by Trump’s tariffs could accelerate one\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/recess.htm#:~:text=Most%20commentators%20and%20analysts%20use,and%20services%20a%20country%20produces.\">The “rule of thumb” definition of a recession\u003c/a> is when a country experiences two consecutive quarters of decline in its gross domestic product, or the total value of all goods and services a country produces.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, for many economists and financial analysts, just looking at GDP \u003ca href=\"https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2022/7/28/23280969/gdp-report-recession-economy-climate-change-happiness\">is not enough to identify a recession\u003c/a>. GDP is “a very high level” signal of economic activity, said Julian Vogel, assistant professor of finance at San José State University and \u003ca href=\"https://career.rady.ucsd.edu/blog/2023/01/24/what-is-a-chartered-financial-analyst-cfa/\">chartered financial analyst\u003c/a>. Since \u003ca href=\"https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\">the U.S. Department of Commerce only reports this data once the quarter has concluded\u003c/a>, it’s also a “lagging indicator,” he said. And by the time economists are reporting six months’ worth of declining GDP and proclaiming a recession, “most people will be like, ‘Yeah, no kidding — I was there, I felt it,’” Vogel said. (They may even have already posted about it.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1912889427338076414\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Instead, economists and analysts \u003ca href=\"https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating\">look at multiple metrics at once\u003c/a>, which could include employment levels, income levels or investment in industrial production, among others. One piece of data that is key for Vogel is “\u003ca href=\"https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/april-2003/consumer-confidence-surveys-do-they-boost-forecasters-confidence\">consumer confidence\u003c/a>”: how individual consumers, like you, \u003cem>feel\u003c/em> about the overall state of the economy and the direction it’s heading.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And according to the business research group \u003ca href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence\">Conference Board\u003c/a>, short-term expectations about the economy among Americans last month fell to their lowest levels in 12 years, with consumer confidence \u003ca href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence\">falling across all income brackets\u003c/a> except for households earning more than $125,000 a year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If people are less confident about the future, they’re going to cut back in some shape or form,” Vogel said. “They’re going to either stop certain types of spending … or they are going to substitute [certain goods] for a cheaper product.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the stuff of recession indicator memes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Lipstick: the original ‘recession indicator’ meme?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.britannica.com/topic/substitution-effect\">“substitution effect”\u003c/a> is one way economists measure how consumers feel about the future: if folks want to cut back on expenses, they will replace certain goods with more affordable substitutes. This phenomenon gives us one of the most pervasive “recession indicator” memes from the days of the early internet: the so-called \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/what-lipstick-index-economic-recession-predictor-1917082\">“lipstick index.”\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This theory, \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/09/investing/markets-lookahead-lipstick-indicator/index.html\">proposed by Estée Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder\u003c/a> amid the post-9/11 downturn, assumes that consumers purchase cheaper products like lipstick as a way to \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214804319304884\">“treat themselves”\u003c/a> when they can’t afford more expensive items like clothing or jewelry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/iiiitsandrea/status/1909989407110619511\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Economists \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/what-lipstick-index-economic-recession-predictor-1917082\">are still researching the accuracy of the “lipstick index.”\u003c/a> However, relatable and informal measurements, like falling \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/recession-indicator-us-hairstylists-report-clients-cut-spending\">hair salon profits\u003c/a>, stick around in the popular imagination and paved the way for recession indicator memes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/kennykeil/status/1910527218364871026\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For its part, the Trump administration \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcYJxJezXkI\">argues that sinking consumer confidence doesn’t necessarily mean the economy itself is slowing down\u003c/a> — contradicting what \u003ca href=\"https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/jan/what-behind-recent-slump-consumer-sentiment\">most economists think\u003c/a>. And because consumption is deeply intertwined with production in the U.S. economy, noted San José State’s Vogel, the kind of reduced spending that comes with low consumer confidence can impact how much manufacturers order from their suppliers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are entering a kind of self-reinforcing cycle where less demand leads to less need for workers, which leads to \u003ca href=\"https://kqed.org/layoffs\">layoffs\u003c/a>,” Vogel said. “That leads to less money being available, which leads to less demand, and so on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Don’t discount the memes \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The recession indicator meme shows no signs of slowing down right now, finding dark humor in any sign of consumers spending less or \u003ca href=\"https://time.com/7276586/recession-pop-benefits-essay/\">dabbling in “recession pop.”\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But ultimately, the recession indicator trend might be less about the \u003cem>accuracy \u003c/em>of these alleged recession indicators — \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/WTFJXR63/status/1908219374311203144\">Kourtney Kardashian spotted in Bushwick\u003c/a>, anyone? — and more about how they reflect the anxieties of consumers trying to process \u003ca href=\"https://news.sky.com/story/tariffs-latest-trumps-worldwide-tariffs-come-into-effect-with-china-facing-104-levy-13209921?postid=9419597\">an ever-changing economic reality\u003c/a> in real-time, said Ellen Evers, associate professor of marketing at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/N_Sportelli/status/1912230520655687745\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The way the economy works is not necessarily similar to the way consumers \u003cem>experience \u003c/em>the economy,” said Evers, whose research focuses on understanding how humans make decisions. “As a consumer, what you see are the very concrete things: ‘Is my rent going up? Is my salary going up? How much is a gallon of milk?’” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Decades of research \u003ca href=\"https://news.uchicago.edu/explainer/what-is-behavioral-economics#tversky\">show that most humans depend on information that they can easily recall\u003c/a> — the price of eggs, for example, or what trends were popular the last time \u003cem>they \u003c/em>witnessed an economic crisis. Being able to then “report” these observations on social media, however humorously, in the form of recession indicator memes, is just another part of talking about what we see in front of us, Evers said. “You choose your own network,” she said. “And if you want to believe a thing, you choose people in your network that also believe those things.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/HKesvani/status/1904161124389437822\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All of which might explain how a complicated economic idea like “a drop in GDP” can now be represented through something much more familiar, like \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/JordanMeehan/status/1909632675947610226\">a shuttered downtown Dunkin Donuts location\u003c/a> — because “the recession indicator memes are just much easier to understand than any of the fundamental economics,” Evers said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/iiiitsandrea/status/1910342795002364104\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She did caution that these memes \u003cem>could \u003c/em>prompt people to feel even more jittery about the economy and adjust their spending accordingly, giving us “a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.” But San José State’s Vogel, on the other hand, noted the deep economic uncertainty COVID wrought, from price hikes to supply chain disruptions, has left many people “quite scarred” — and memers could be \u003ca href=\"https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-science-of-fandom/202403/how-memes-help-us-cope\">processing their last bout of financial panic by joking\u003c/a> that the next one might be around the corner.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sounds like it’s time to add a lesson on memes to the Economics 101 syllabus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://x.com/chulbolpandey/status/1909127476988481650\">Formal wear at the club\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8j6UFKc/\">Lady Gaga’s pivot back to pop music\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/confusionm8trix/status/1909064622059016334\">The resurgence of the ‘flash mob.’\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/botticellibimbo/status/1527390388167659528\">Dwindling attendance at strip clubs.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even before the markets were plunged into chaos by \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/03/nx-s1-5349403/trump-unveils-10-tariff-on-all-imports-and-reciprocal-tariffs-dozens-of-economies\">President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement \u003c/a>at the start of the month, a certain genre of meme was spreading across social media: posts labeling a comically wide variety of observations and situations like these as “recession indicators.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As uncertainty grows in every corner of the U.S. economy — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034730/trump-tariffs-shake-world-economy-rattling-silicon-valley\">Silicon Valley\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/business/trump-tariffs-cars-auto-industry.html\">manufacturing\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/trump-s-tariffs-are-expected-to-raise-new-home-20258385.php\">housing\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5352901/tariffs-trump-asian-grocery-stores\">retail\u003c/a>, to name a few — internet users who might not even have lived through the \u003ca href=\"https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-of-200709\">Great Recession of the late 2000s\u003c/a> or the \u003ca href=\"https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/recession-of-1981-82\">recession of 1981\u003c/a> see signs of imminent recession almost everywhere. Supposed indicators include people \u003ca href=\"https://www.instagram.com/reel/DHlQ55GxXSk/\">exiting the job market in favor of law school\u003c/a>, saving money by \u003ca href=\"https://www.tiktok.com/@djgoss1p/video/7490713864733232430?_r=1&_t=ZP-8vMxodNOD8h\">cooking at home\u003c/a> or \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/lilgrapefruits/status/1907260849594798085\">streaming years-old episodes of \u003cem>American Idol\u003c/em>.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>While the recession indicator trope is not new — \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/botticellibimbo/status/1527390388167659528\">the viral tweet from a dancer linking declining strip club attendance and U.S. economic health\u003c/a> was posted in 2022 — the 2025 meme strain specifically focuses on the apparent resurgence of 2000s pop culture as a sign of the economic times, with an increasingly absurdist twist. This is how we get the recession indicator of British singer-songwriter \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/PopCrave/status/1906028446028820689\">Ed Sheeran, whose debut album was released in 2011, being “cool” again\u003c/a> — or \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/BivouacChillin/status/1907609632001958122\">a rare public sighting of a child star from TV’s Malcolm in the Middle\u003c/a> (which debuted in 2000: the same year that \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/04/23/397113284/15-years-after-the-dot-com-bust-nasdaq-closes-at-new-record\">the dot-com bubble burst in U.S. stock markets\u003c/a>).\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>But in other posts, “throwback” leanings \u003cem>are \u003c/em>directly linked to financial behavior — the idea that 2010s formal wear-at-the-club style is making a comeback precisely because it \u003ca href=\"https://www.voguebusiness.com/story/fashion/why-is-everything-in-fashion-suddenly-a-recession-indicator\">allows the wearer to save money by reusing office clothing\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>As purposefully goofy as many of these observations are, there’s a serious question here: What can recession indicator memes actually tell us — or even predict — about the national economy? And what do online trends like this communicate about how regular people experience economic uncertainty?\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>On the hunt for signs of a recession\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>At the time of writing, the U.S. is \u003cem>not \u003c/em>currently in a recession, although \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5354927/recession-trump-tariffs\">experts have warned that the uncertainty stoked by Trump’s tariffs could accelerate one\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/recess.htm#:~:text=Most%20commentators%20and%20analysts%20use,and%20services%20a%20country%20produces.\">The “rule of thumb” definition of a recession\u003c/a> is when a country experiences two consecutive quarters of decline in its gross domestic product, or the total value of all goods and services a country produces.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, for many economists and financial analysts, just looking at GDP \u003ca href=\"https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2022/7/28/23280969/gdp-report-recession-economy-climate-change-happiness\">is not enough to identify a recession\u003c/a>. GDP is “a very high level” signal of economic activity, said Julian Vogel, assistant professor of finance at San José State University and \u003ca href=\"https://career.rady.ucsd.edu/blog/2023/01/24/what-is-a-chartered-financial-analyst-cfa/\">chartered financial analyst\u003c/a>. Since \u003ca href=\"https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\">the U.S. Department of Commerce only reports this data once the quarter has concluded\u003c/a>, it’s also a “lagging indicator,” he said. And by the time economists are reporting six months’ worth of declining GDP and proclaiming a recession, “most people will be like, ‘Yeah, no kidding — I was there, I felt it,’” Vogel said. (They may even have already posted about it.)\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Instead, economists and analysts \u003ca href=\"https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating\">look at multiple metrics at once\u003c/a>, which could include employment levels, income levels or investment in industrial production, among others. One piece of data that is key for Vogel is “\u003ca href=\"https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/april-2003/consumer-confidence-surveys-do-they-boost-forecasters-confidence\">consumer confidence\u003c/a>”: how individual consumers, like you, \u003cem>feel\u003c/em> about the overall state of the economy and the direction it’s heading.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And according to the business research group \u003ca href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence\">Conference Board\u003c/a>, short-term expectations about the economy among Americans last month fell to their lowest levels in 12 years, with consumer confidence \u003ca href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence\">falling across all income brackets\u003c/a> except for households earning more than $125,000 a year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If people are less confident about the future, they’re going to cut back in some shape or form,” Vogel said. “They’re going to either stop certain types of spending … or they are going to substitute [certain goods] for a cheaper product.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the stuff of recession indicator memes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Lipstick: the original ‘recession indicator’ meme?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.britannica.com/topic/substitution-effect\">“substitution effect”\u003c/a> is one way economists measure how consumers feel about the future: if folks want to cut back on expenses, they will replace certain goods with more affordable substitutes. This phenomenon gives us one of the most pervasive “recession indicator” memes from the days of the early internet: the so-called \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/what-lipstick-index-economic-recession-predictor-1917082\">“lipstick index.”\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This theory, \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/09/investing/markets-lookahead-lipstick-indicator/index.html\">proposed by Estée Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder\u003c/a> amid the post-9/11 downturn, assumes that consumers purchase cheaper products like lipstick as a way to \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214804319304884\">“treat themselves”\u003c/a> when they can’t afford more expensive items like clothing or jewelry.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Economists \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/what-lipstick-index-economic-recession-predictor-1917082\">are still researching the accuracy of the “lipstick index.”\u003c/a> However, relatable and informal measurements, like falling \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/recession-indicator-us-hairstylists-report-clients-cut-spending\">hair salon profits\u003c/a>, stick around in the popular imagination and paved the way for recession indicator memes.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>For its part, the Trump administration \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcYJxJezXkI\">argues that sinking consumer confidence doesn’t necessarily mean the economy itself is slowing down\u003c/a> — contradicting what \u003ca href=\"https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/jan/what-behind-recent-slump-consumer-sentiment\">most economists think\u003c/a>. And because consumption is deeply intertwined with production in the U.S. economy, noted San José State’s Vogel, the kind of reduced spending that comes with low consumer confidence can impact how much manufacturers order from their suppliers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are entering a kind of self-reinforcing cycle where less demand leads to less need for workers, which leads to \u003ca href=\"https://kqed.org/layoffs\">layoffs\u003c/a>,” Vogel said. “That leads to less money being available, which leads to less demand, and so on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Don’t discount the memes \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The recession indicator meme shows no signs of slowing down right now, finding dark humor in any sign of consumers spending less or \u003ca href=\"https://time.com/7276586/recession-pop-benefits-essay/\">dabbling in “recession pop.”\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But ultimately, the recession indicator trend might be less about the \u003cem>accuracy \u003c/em>of these alleged recession indicators — \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/WTFJXR63/status/1908219374311203144\">Kourtney Kardashian spotted in Bushwick\u003c/a>, anyone? — and more about how they reflect the anxieties of consumers trying to process \u003ca href=\"https://news.sky.com/story/tariffs-latest-trumps-worldwide-tariffs-come-into-effect-with-china-facing-104-levy-13209921?postid=9419597\">an ever-changing economic reality\u003c/a> in real-time, said Ellen Evers, associate professor of marketing at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>“The way the economy works is not necessarily similar to the way consumers \u003cem>experience \u003c/em>the economy,” said Evers, whose research focuses on understanding how humans make decisions. “As a consumer, what you see are the very concrete things: ‘Is my rent going up? Is my salary going up? How much is a gallon of milk?’” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Decades of research \u003ca href=\"https://news.uchicago.edu/explainer/what-is-behavioral-economics#tversky\">show that most humans depend on information that they can easily recall\u003c/a> — the price of eggs, for example, or what trends were popular the last time \u003cem>they \u003c/em>witnessed an economic crisis. Being able to then “report” these observations on social media, however humorously, in the form of recession indicator memes, is just another part of talking about what we see in front of us, Evers said. “You choose your own network,” she said. “And if you want to believe a thing, you choose people in your network that also believe those things.”\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>All of which might explain how a complicated economic idea like “a drop in GDP” can now be represented through something much more familiar, like \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/JordanMeehan/status/1909632675947610226\">a shuttered downtown Dunkin Donuts location\u003c/a> — because “the recession indicator memes are just much easier to understand than any of the fundamental economics,” Evers said.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>She did caution that these memes \u003cem>could \u003c/em>prompt people to feel even more jittery about the economy and adjust their spending accordingly, giving us “a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.” But San José State’s Vogel, on the other hand, noted the deep economic uncertainty COVID wrought, from price hikes to supply chain disruptions, has left many people “quite scarred” — and memers could be \u003ca href=\"https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-science-of-fandom/202403/how-memes-help-us-cope\">processing their last bout of financial panic by joking\u003c/a> that the next one might be around the corner.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sounds like it’s time to add a lesson on memes to the Economics 101 syllabus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "For Local Bay Area Bike Shops, Raging Trade War Brings an Uncertain Future",
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"content": "\u003cp>For Bay Area bike shops, the recent drama of the Trump administration’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12036199/trumps-tariffs-could-wreck-californias-economy-the-state-is-suing\">on-again, off-again tariffs\u003c/a> has been nothing short of chaos.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These small businesses typically see an uptick in sales during spring, when the weather warms and people get outside, but, like many American businesses, they now face fears about a lack of supply, unpredictable prices and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034827/bay-area-business-already-tough-trumps-tariffs-preparing-pain\">broader economic downturn\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s been a whirlwind,” said Brett Thurber, co-owner of The New Wheel Electric Bikes, which operates three shops in Larkspur, Oakland and San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On April 2, the Trump administration announced a 10% minimum tariff on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034730/trump-tariffs-shake-world-economy-rattling-silicon-valley\">goods imported from all countries\u003c/a> and sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” against some of the United States’ biggest trading partners, such as China and the European Union. This change basically shut down The New Wheel’s supply chain, Thurber said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of our suppliers stopped shipments to the United States,” said Thurber, whose company sells one bicycle that is made in China and imports most from the EU and Vietnam. “ The lack of product was the biggest concern.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12036052\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12036052\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Brett Thurber, owner of The New Wheel, poses for a photo in the bike shop on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Then, a few days later, the Trump administration announced a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12035188/trump-says-he-will-pause-tariffs-for-90-days-but-not-for-china\">90-day pause\u003c/a> on reciprocal tariffs on countries, except for China, but kept the 10% baseline tariff on all imports in place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For now, The New Wheel’s suppliers have resumed shipments, Thurber said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“ The confusion was beyond belief,” he added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The current tariff on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101909512/how-tariffs-and-a-trade-war-with-china-could-affect-ca-farmers\">imports from China\u003c/a> is particularly worrisome for bike shops, as more than half of all bicycles imported to the U.S. come from China.[aside postID=news_12036516 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/240823-ValenciaTelegraphBikeLanes-33-BL_qed-1020x680.jpg']If the trade war persists, it could pose a serious threat to the viability of many neighborhood bike shops, according to Matt Moore, the policy counsel for People for Bikes, the trade association for the U.S. bicycle industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Moore said that 60% to 65% of all bicycles imported to the U.S. are made in China, and those bicycles are subject to a tariff as high as 181% because of a blanket 145% tariff on goods from China, plus additional pre-existing tariffs on bicycles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With tariffs that high, many small to midsize shops simply won’t have the money to purchase their inventory, Moore said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m not sure what those companies are going to do,” he added. “They’re not going to have inventory to sell. They won’t be making any money, and that’s not good for business.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For now, The New Wheel can mostly rely on sales of bikes that are already in the country, Thurber said, but once that supply is used up, the company will need to import bikes — and possibly pay more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Once that inventory is gone, then new prices might come into play,” Thurber said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12036057\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12036057\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An individual walks past The New Wheel in San Francisco on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Still, the tariffs have led shoppers to try to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12035438/higher-prices-may-be-slow-to-come-down-even-if-tariffs-go-away-economists-say\">snag pre-tariff prices.\u003c/a> Thurber said business the first weekend after “Liberation Day,” when Trump announced the sweeping reciprocal tariffs, was 175% higher than the same weekend the year before — likely because prices for many of the shops’ bikes haven’t gone up yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kalvin Corbett, a San Francisco resident who works at Marin General Hospital, had been on the fence about buying a new e-bike. He wants to commute to work by bike, but news of rising tariffs — and the potential for higher prices — moved up his decision to start shopping.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On a recent Thursday, he came to The New Wheel’s shop in Bernal Heights to test-ride e-bikes after the company sent out an email encouraging people to come in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“ They sent an email that was like, ‘Hey, you know, [prices] are probably going to go up, so if you’re going to be thinking about getting one, you should get on board right now,” Corbett said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12036056\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12036056\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1329\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-1536x1021.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-1920x1276.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A cyclist rides on Cortland Avenue in San Francisco on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>He was looking at bikes priced between $5,000 and $10,000.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“ So if it goes up 10%, that’s a huge chunk of money,” Corbett said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the stated reasons for Trump’s trade war is to return manufacturing to the U.S. — a move that the national bike industry has also called for.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, then-Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Oregon) introduced the \u003ca href=\"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8625/text\">Domestic Bicycle Production Act\u003c/a>, which would have created an initiative “to make loans to support domestic investment in the manufacturing of bicycles and electric bicycles.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Moore said the bill “didn’t quite make it to the finish line” last year, but his group, People for Bikes, is looking to support the reintroduction of the bill this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“ We can see the handwriting on the wall,” Moore said. “That’s the direction the administration wants to go, and our industry is generally supportive of that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "One Bay Area bicycle shop saw a short-term boon from customers seeking to beat President Trump’s tariffs, as shops deal with potential fallout such as supply shortages and price jumps.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>For Bay Area bike shops, the recent drama of the Trump administration’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12036199/trumps-tariffs-could-wreck-californias-economy-the-state-is-suing\">on-again, off-again tariffs\u003c/a> has been nothing short of chaos.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These small businesses typically see an uptick in sales during spring, when the weather warms and people get outside, but, like many American businesses, they now face fears about a lack of supply, unpredictable prices and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034827/bay-area-business-already-tough-trumps-tariffs-preparing-pain\">broader economic downturn\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s been a whirlwind,” said Brett Thurber, co-owner of The New Wheel Electric Bikes, which operates three shops in Larkspur, Oakland and San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On April 2, the Trump administration announced a 10% minimum tariff on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034730/trump-tariffs-shake-world-economy-rattling-silicon-valley\">goods imported from all countries\u003c/a> and sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” against some of the United States’ biggest trading partners, such as China and the European Union. This change basically shut down The New Wheel’s supply chain, Thurber said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of our suppliers stopped shipments to the United States,” said Thurber, whose company sells one bicycle that is made in China and imports most from the EU and Vietnam. “ The lack of product was the biggest concern.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12036052\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12036052\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-1-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Brett Thurber, owner of The New Wheel, poses for a photo in the bike shop on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Then, a few days later, the Trump administration announced a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12035188/trump-says-he-will-pause-tariffs-for-90-days-but-not-for-china\">90-day pause\u003c/a> on reciprocal tariffs on countries, except for China, but kept the 10% baseline tariff on all imports in place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For now, The New Wheel’s suppliers have resumed shipments, Thurber said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“ The confusion was beyond belief,” he added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The current tariff on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101909512/how-tariffs-and-a-trade-war-with-china-could-affect-ca-farmers\">imports from China\u003c/a> is particularly worrisome for bike shops, as more than half of all bicycles imported to the U.S. come from China.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>If the trade war persists, it could pose a serious threat to the viability of many neighborhood bike shops, according to Matt Moore, the policy counsel for People for Bikes, the trade association for the U.S. bicycle industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Moore said that 60% to 65% of all bicycles imported to the U.S. are made in China, and those bicycles are subject to a tariff as high as 181% because of a blanket 145% tariff on goods from China, plus additional pre-existing tariffs on bicycles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With tariffs that high, many small to midsize shops simply won’t have the money to purchase their inventory, Moore said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m not sure what those companies are going to do,” he added. “They’re not going to have inventory to sell. They won’t be making any money, and that’s not good for business.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For now, The New Wheel can mostly rely on sales of bikes that are already in the country, Thurber said, but once that supply is used up, the company will need to import bikes — and possibly pay more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Once that inventory is gone, then new prices might come into play,” Thurber said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12036057\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12036057\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-16-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An individual walks past The New Wheel in San Francisco on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Still, the tariffs have led shoppers to try to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12035438/higher-prices-may-be-slow-to-come-down-even-if-tariffs-go-away-economists-say\">snag pre-tariff prices.\u003c/a> Thurber said business the first weekend after “Liberation Day,” when Trump announced the sweeping reciprocal tariffs, was 175% higher than the same weekend the year before — likely because prices for many of the shops’ bikes haven’t gone up yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kalvin Corbett, a San Francisco resident who works at Marin General Hospital, had been on the fence about buying a new e-bike. He wants to commute to work by bike, but news of rising tariffs — and the potential for higher prices — moved up his decision to start shopping.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On a recent Thursday, he came to The New Wheel’s shop in Bernal Heights to test-ride e-bikes after the company sent out an email encouraging people to come in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“ They sent an email that was like, ‘Hey, you know, [prices] are probably going to go up, so if you’re going to be thinking about getting one, you should get on board right now,” Corbett said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12036056\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12036056\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1329\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-800x532.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-1020x678.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-1536x1021.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/20250415_BIKETARIFF_GC-15-KQED-1920x1276.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A cyclist rides on Cortland Avenue in San Francisco on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>He was looking at bikes priced between $5,000 and $10,000.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“ So if it goes up 10%, that’s a huge chunk of money,” Corbett said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the stated reasons for Trump’s trade war is to return manufacturing to the U.S. — a move that the national bike industry has also called for.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, then-Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Oregon) introduced the \u003ca href=\"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8625/text\">Domestic Bicycle Production Act\u003c/a>, which would have created an initiative “to make loans to support domestic investment in the manufacturing of bicycles and electric bicycles.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Moore said the bill “didn’t quite make it to the finish line” last year, but his group, People for Bikes, is looking to support the reintroduction of the bill this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“ We can see the handwriting on the wall,” Moore said. “That’s the direction the administration wants to go, and our industry is generally supportive of that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated 1:05 p.m. Wednesday\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is challenging \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/donald-trump\">President Donald Trump’s\u003c/a> tariffs in court, arguing in a \u003ca href=\"https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/FILE_8502.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lawsuit\u003c/a> filed Wednesday morning that he lacks the authority to unilaterally impose the levies on foreign goods and that they are doing \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034827/bay-area-business-already-tough-trumps-tariffs-preparing-pain\">irreparable harm to the state’s economy\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta are asking a federal court to pause the tariffs being levied against Mexico, China and Canada, as well as the across-the-board 10% tariff enacted by Trump. The suit argues that the law the president is relying on — the International Economic Emergency Powers Act — has never been used before to justify tariffs, and that Trump needs Congressional authorization for actions with such broad economic consequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Newsom and Bonta announced the lawsuit at Gemperle Orchards, a family-owned almond farm in Stanislaus County. Newsom called the tariffs a regressive sales tax that is hurting both businesses and consumers — including Trump’s own supporters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said California, the largest manufacturing state in the nation, has a responsibility to use its economic and political might to push back against the tariffs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Eighty years of economic dominance in just a matter of weeks being unwound by this kind of recklessness,” Newsom said. “We are very mindful of the anxiety that this has imposed on all of you and very mindful of our role and responsibility at this moment not to be bystanders and to try to shape this debate and shape this conversation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12024152\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12024152\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy.jpg\" alt=\"Two men wearing jackets and the man on the right wearing a black hat stand near each other talking.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1336\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-1920x1283.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">President Donald Trump talks with Gov. Gavin Newsom after arriving on Air Force One at Los Angeles International Airport in Los Angeles, on Jan. 24, 2025. \u003ccite>(Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the tariffs in a statement and slammed Newsom.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Instead of focusing on California’s rampant crime, homelessness and unaffordability, Gavin Newsom is spending his time trying to block President Trump’s historic efforts to finally address the national emergency of our country’s persistent goods trade deficits,” he said. “The entire Trump administration remains committed to addressing this national emergency that’s decimating America’s industries and leaving our workers behind with every tool at our disposal, from tariffs to negotiations.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lawsuit cites the U.S. Supreme Court’s “major questions doctrine,” a legal principle that assumes Congress must weigh in on issues of major political or economic significance. The Supreme Court relied on the doctrine to strike down laws related to pollution control and student loan forgiveness under Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama, the governor noted.[aside postID=news_12033446 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/DonaldTrump100DaysGetty-1020x680.jpg']“If they are consistent, then this lawsuit is a lock in terms of what the Attorney General has laid out and what this state is asserting,” Newsom said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The governor’s office said the tariffs have already cost California billions of dollars in economic losses. Bonta said the state’s largest sectors — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034501/tariffs-to-have-widespread-impact-on-california-businesses\">particularly manufacturing and agriculture\u003c/a> — are being hurt by the tariffs, along with consumers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He noted that Mexico, Canada and China are California’s top trade partners.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trump’s rogue and erratic tariffs are wreaking havoc … and causing unique harm to the California economy, the fifth largest in the world and a major driver of the national economy,” Bonta said. “Trump does not have the authority to impose these tariffs. He must be stopped.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Christine Gemperle, owner of the almond farm where the news conference took place, said she’s not sure if her business will still be able to afford the farm equipment and other supplies they need to grow their crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Because seasons determine when crops are planted and harvested, we do not have the luxury to wait years for factories to be built or supply chains to grow,” she said. “Regardless of all the scientific and engineering advances, farming is still hard work. And the weather makes every year a gamble. The last thing we need is more uncertainty, and not knowing whether we can ride this one out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12036403\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-12036403 size-full\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Trucks leave the Port of Oakland on Sept. 28, 2023. (Martin do Nascimento/KQED) \u003ccite>(Martin do Nascimento/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The suit, and Newsom’s strident comments — at one point he accused Trump of “corruption” — mark a departure from the governor’s less aggressive posturing this year. For months, Newsom has avoided \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12026230/after-years-of-attacks-newsom-tries-flattery-on-trump\">directly criticizing Trump\u003c/a> as California seeks federal emergency assistance to help recover from the devastating Los Angeles wildfires. However, in recent weeks, the governor has been vocal about his desire to \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/us/politics/newsom-trump-california-tariffs.html\">protect California’s economy\u003c/a> from Trump’s tariffs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lawsuit is California’s 14th against the Trump administration since January. Democratic Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas noted in a statement that lawmakers approved \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12024851/california-legislature-approves-50m-to-fight-trump-administration-in-court\">a $50 million legal defense fund\u003c/a> earlier this year to push back against the Trump administration in court. Half of the fund was earmarked for the state Department of Justice, led by Bonta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trump’s tariffs are the single largest tax increase in our lifetime, and they’re jamming Californians with higher prices on groceries, medicine and cars,” Rivas said. “This is why we enacted a legal defense fund: to fight Republican policies that harm taxpayers. We’re protecting our residents — and all American families — from unlawful economic chaos.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Newsom said that fund was created as an insurance policy that he would prefer not to use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We didn’t want to go down this path. We were hoping we didn’t need to go down this path, but we prepared to go down this path,” he said of the legal challenges to Trump’s policies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated 1:05 p.m. Wednesday\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is challenging \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/donald-trump\">President Donald Trump’s\u003c/a> tariffs in court, arguing in a \u003ca href=\"https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/FILE_8502.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lawsuit\u003c/a> filed Wednesday morning that he lacks the authority to unilaterally impose the levies on foreign goods and that they are doing \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034827/bay-area-business-already-tough-trumps-tariffs-preparing-pain\">irreparable harm to the state’s economy\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta are asking a federal court to pause the tariffs being levied against Mexico, China and Canada, as well as the across-the-board 10% tariff enacted by Trump. The suit argues that the law the president is relying on — the International Economic Emergency Powers Act — has never been used before to justify tariffs, and that Trump needs Congressional authorization for actions with such broad economic consequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Newsom and Bonta announced the lawsuit at Gemperle Orchards, a family-owned almond farm in Stanislaus County. Newsom called the tariffs a regressive sales tax that is hurting both businesses and consumers — including Trump’s own supporters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said California, the largest manufacturing state in the nation, has a responsibility to use its economic and political might to push back against the tariffs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Eighty years of economic dominance in just a matter of weeks being unwound by this kind of recklessness,” Newsom said. “We are very mindful of the anxiety that this has imposed on all of you and very mindful of our role and responsibility at this moment not to be bystanders and to try to shape this debate and shape this conversation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12024152\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12024152\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy.jpg\" alt=\"Two men wearing jackets and the man on the right wearing a black hat stand near each other talking.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1336\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/01/102425-Newsom-Trump-LA-Fires-AP-CM-03-copy-1920x1283.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">President Donald Trump talks with Gov. Gavin Newsom after arriving on Air Force One at Los Angeles International Airport in Los Angeles, on Jan. 24, 2025. \u003ccite>(Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the tariffs in a statement and slammed Newsom.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Instead of focusing on California’s rampant crime, homelessness and unaffordability, Gavin Newsom is spending his time trying to block President Trump’s historic efforts to finally address the national emergency of our country’s persistent goods trade deficits,” he said. “The entire Trump administration remains committed to addressing this national emergency that’s decimating America’s industries and leaving our workers behind with every tool at our disposal, from tariffs to negotiations.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lawsuit cites the U.S. Supreme Court’s “major questions doctrine,” a legal principle that assumes Congress must weigh in on issues of major political or economic significance. The Supreme Court relied on the doctrine to strike down laws related to pollution control and student loan forgiveness under Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama, the governor noted.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“If they are consistent, then this lawsuit is a lock in terms of what the Attorney General has laid out and what this state is asserting,” Newsom said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The governor’s office said the tariffs have already cost California billions of dollars in economic losses. Bonta said the state’s largest sectors — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12034501/tariffs-to-have-widespread-impact-on-california-businesses\">particularly manufacturing and agriculture\u003c/a> — are being hurt by the tariffs, along with consumers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He noted that Mexico, Canada and China are California’s top trade partners.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trump’s rogue and erratic tariffs are wreaking havoc … and causing unique harm to the California economy, the fifth largest in the world and a major driver of the national economy,” Bonta said. “Trump does not have the authority to impose these tariffs. He must be stopped.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Christine Gemperle, owner of the almond farm where the news conference took place, said she’s not sure if her business will still be able to afford the farm equipment and other supplies they need to grow their crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Because seasons determine when crops are planted and harvested, we do not have the luxury to wait years for factories to be built or supply chains to grow,” she said. “Regardless of all the scientific and engineering advances, farming is still hard work. And the weather makes every year a gamble. The last thing we need is more uncertainty, and not knowing whether we can ride this one out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12036403\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-12036403 size-full\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/230928-EAGLE-ROCK-SETTLE-MD-09_qed-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Trucks leave the Port of Oakland on Sept. 28, 2023. (Martin do Nascimento/KQED) \u003ccite>(Martin do Nascimento/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The suit, and Newsom’s strident comments — at one point he accused Trump of “corruption” — mark a departure from the governor’s less aggressive posturing this year. For months, Newsom has avoided \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12026230/after-years-of-attacks-newsom-tries-flattery-on-trump\">directly criticizing Trump\u003c/a> as California seeks federal emergency assistance to help recover from the devastating Los Angeles wildfires. However, in recent weeks, the governor has been vocal about his desire to \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/us/politics/newsom-trump-california-tariffs.html\">protect California’s economy\u003c/a> from Trump’s tariffs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lawsuit is California’s 14th against the Trump administration since January. Democratic Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas noted in a statement that lawmakers approved \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12024851/california-legislature-approves-50m-to-fight-trump-administration-in-court\">a $50 million legal defense fund\u003c/a> earlier this year to push back against the Trump administration in court. Half of the fund was earmarked for the state Department of Justice, led by Bonta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trump’s tariffs are the single largest tax increase in our lifetime, and they’re jamming Californians with higher prices on groceries, medicine and cars,” Rivas said. “This is why we enacted a legal defense fund: to fight Republican policies that harm taxpayers. We’re protecting our residents — and all American families — from unlawful economic chaos.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Newsom said that fund was created as an insurance policy that he would prefer not to use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We didn’t want to go down this path. We were hoping we didn’t need to go down this path, but we prepared to go down this path,” he said of the legal challenges to Trump’s policies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Wall Street has been whipsawed for \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/08/nx-s1-5355914/markets-swing-on-hopes-for-tariffs-deals\">more than a week\u003c/a> by President Trump’s every word about tariffs. Now he’s facing accusations of using his power to deliberately manipulate the markets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scrutiny started with a tale of two social media posts. On Wednesday, shortly after the U.S. stock market opened, Trump \u003ca href=\"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114308272725981913\">posted on his Truth Social network\u003c/a> in all caps: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Less than \u003ca href=\"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114309144289505174\">four hours \u003c/a>after his post, Trump said on Truth Social that \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5357645/trump-tariffs-paused\">he would pause\u003c/a> the harshest of his tariffs on most countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stocks immediately \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5357405/stocks-tariffs-china-eu-trump-trade-war\">skyrocketed in relief\u003c/a>, with the Dow closing up almost 3,000 points — meaning that any investors who had followed Trump’s advice in the morning and bought into the stock market right away would have made quite a bit of money by the end of the day.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Prior to his post, share prices had been plummeting \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5354231/markets-continue-to-tumble-following-trumps-new-tariffs-announcement\">for days\u003c/a>, as fears mounted about the economic damage Trump’s new trade policies could cause. Powerful investors and billionaire business leaders had \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5354797/tariffs-wall-street-warnings\">increasingly gone public\u003c/a> airing their worries about the new tariffs and the resulting financial panic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By Wednesday afternoon, Trump seemed to hear them when he hit pause.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now some Democratic lawmakers and government ethics experts are calling for investigations into whether Trump was attempting to deliberately manipulate the markets, or to enable others to trade on insider information.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sens. Adam Schiff, Democrat from California, and Ruben Gallego, Democrat from Arizona, \u003ca href=\"https://www.schiff.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025.04.10-Sens.-Schiff-Gallego-Letter-to-WH-OGE-on-Insider-Trading-and-Tariffs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sent a letter (PDF)\u003c/a> to the White House on Wednesday requesting “an urgent inquiry into whether President Trump, his family, or other members of the administration engaged in insider trading or other illegal financial transactions, informed by advanced knowledge” of his tariff policy changes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Democrat from Massachusetts, \u003ca href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aoc-elizabeth-warren-demand-answers-135944420.html\">also called\u003c/a> for an investigation, asking on the floor of Congress if this was “corruption in plain sight.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>White House spokesperson Kush Desai accused Democrats of “playing partisan games” and tells NPR that Trump’s early-morning post was merely meant to calm investors’ fears.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“”It is the responsibility of the President of the United States to reassure the markets and Americans about their economic security,” he wrote in an emailed statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>George W. Bush’s former chief ethics lawyer says such statements would have led to firing\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>But the criticisms of Trump’s two Truth Social posts aren’t just limited to his partisan opponents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can’t have senior public officials — including the president — talking about stock prices and where to buy or to sell at the same time as they are making and announcing decisions that have a dramatic impact on stock prices,” says Richard Painter, a law professor at the University of Minnesota, who previously served as the chief ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=forum_2010101909473 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2025/04/GettyImages-2207863842-stock-market-tariffs-1020x574.jpg']\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If anyone in the Bush administration had made similar public statements urging people to buy or sell stocks, Painter added, “that person probably would [have been] fired.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Painter did not accuse President Trump of market manipulation: “We don’t have clear evidence of that here,” he tells NPR.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But he pointed out that the president already has a track record of \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/11/29/nx-s1-5209831/a-second-trump-term-could-bring-more-financial-conflicts-of-interest\">pushing the boundaries\u003c/a>, at the very least.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Financial conflicts of interests for President Trump \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2016/12/05/503611249/trumps-businesses-and-potential-conflicts-sorting-it-out\">have been a concern\u003c/a> since he was first elected in 2016,” Painter says, adding that the problems today are even greater.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trump’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/09/25/nx-s1-5056183/trump-has-a-pro-cryptocurrency-platform-while-harris-chases-the-crypto-vote\">embrace of the crypto industry\u003c/a>, for example, has drawn \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/11/11/nx-s1-5184152/the-crypto-industry-won-big-this-election-it-has-several-implications\">ongoing scrutiny\u003c/a>: The president, who has a growing personal portfolio of cryptocurrency-related businesses, has appointed \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/11/19/nx-s1-5189643/commerce-treasury-secretary-howard-lutnick-trump-cantor-fitzgerald\">pro-crypto Cabinet officials\u003c/a> and promised the industry much friendlier regulation.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>It’s up to the SEC to investigate accusations of insider trading\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Despite the wide-ranging calls for investigations into Trump’s social media posts on Wednesday, Painter and others aren’t expecting to see much happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Republican lawmakers who control both the House and Senate have shown little interest in picking fights with Trump. Nor do ethics experts expect much movement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which investigates accusations of insider trading.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Wednesday, the Senate\u003ca href=\"https://thehill.com/business/5241843-trump-sec-chair-pick-paul-atkins-confirmed-senate/\"> voted to confirm\u003c/a> Trump nominee \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/12/04/g-s1-36803/trump-crypto-paul-atkins-sec-chair\">Paul Atkins\u003c/a> to lead the SEC. And Trump in February \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/02/19/nx-s1-5302481/trump-independent-agencies\">signed an executive order\u003c/a> claiming more power over independent regulatory agencies, including the SEC.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An SEC spokesperson declined to comment on the matter.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Wall Street has been whipsawed for \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/08/nx-s1-5355914/markets-swing-on-hopes-for-tariffs-deals\">more than a week\u003c/a> by President Trump’s every word about tariffs. Now he’s facing accusations of using his power to deliberately manipulate the markets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scrutiny started with a tale of two social media posts. On Wednesday, shortly after the U.S. stock market opened, Trump \u003ca href=\"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114308272725981913\">posted on his Truth Social network\u003c/a> in all caps: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Less than \u003ca href=\"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114309144289505174\">four hours \u003c/a>after his post, Trump said on Truth Social that \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5357645/trump-tariffs-paused\">he would pause\u003c/a> the harshest of his tariffs on most countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stocks immediately \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5357405/stocks-tariffs-china-eu-trump-trade-war\">skyrocketed in relief\u003c/a>, with the Dow closing up almost 3,000 points — meaning that any investors who had followed Trump’s advice in the morning and bought into the stock market right away would have made quite a bit of money by the end of the day.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Prior to his post, share prices had been plummeting \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5354231/markets-continue-to-tumble-following-trumps-new-tariffs-announcement\">for days\u003c/a>, as fears mounted about the economic damage Trump’s new trade policies could cause. Powerful investors and billionaire business leaders had \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5354797/tariffs-wall-street-warnings\">increasingly gone public\u003c/a> airing their worries about the new tariffs and the resulting financial panic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By Wednesday afternoon, Trump seemed to hear them when he hit pause.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now some Democratic lawmakers and government ethics experts are calling for investigations into whether Trump was attempting to deliberately manipulate the markets, or to enable others to trade on insider information.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sens. Adam Schiff, Democrat from California, and Ruben Gallego, Democrat from Arizona, \u003ca href=\"https://www.schiff.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025.04.10-Sens.-Schiff-Gallego-Letter-to-WH-OGE-on-Insider-Trading-and-Tariffs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sent a letter (PDF)\u003c/a> to the White House on Wednesday requesting “an urgent inquiry into whether President Trump, his family, or other members of the administration engaged in insider trading or other illegal financial transactions, informed by advanced knowledge” of his tariff policy changes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Democrat from Massachusetts, \u003ca href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aoc-elizabeth-warren-demand-answers-135944420.html\">also called\u003c/a> for an investigation, asking on the floor of Congress if this was “corruption in plain sight.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>White House spokesperson Kush Desai accused Democrats of “playing partisan games” and tells NPR that Trump’s early-morning post was merely meant to calm investors’ fears.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“”It is the responsibility of the President of the United States to reassure the markets and Americans about their economic security,” he wrote in an emailed statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>George W. Bush’s former chief ethics lawyer says such statements would have led to firing\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>But the criticisms of Trump’s two Truth Social posts aren’t just limited to his partisan opponents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can’t have senior public officials — including the president — talking about stock prices and where to buy or to sell at the same time as they are making and announcing decisions that have a dramatic impact on stock prices,” says Richard Painter, a law professor at the University of Minnesota, who previously served as the chief ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If anyone in the Bush administration had made similar public statements urging people to buy or sell stocks, Painter added, “that person probably would [have been] fired.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Painter did not accuse President Trump of market manipulation: “We don’t have clear evidence of that here,” he tells NPR.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But he pointed out that the president already has a track record of \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/11/29/nx-s1-5209831/a-second-trump-term-could-bring-more-financial-conflicts-of-interest\">pushing the boundaries\u003c/a>, at the very least.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Financial conflicts of interests for President Trump \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2016/12/05/503611249/trumps-businesses-and-potential-conflicts-sorting-it-out\">have been a concern\u003c/a> since he was first elected in 2016,” Painter says, adding that the problems today are even greater.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trump’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/09/25/nx-s1-5056183/trump-has-a-pro-cryptocurrency-platform-while-harris-chases-the-crypto-vote\">embrace of the crypto industry\u003c/a>, for example, has drawn \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/11/11/nx-s1-5184152/the-crypto-industry-won-big-this-election-it-has-several-implications\">ongoing scrutiny\u003c/a>: The president, who has a growing personal portfolio of cryptocurrency-related businesses, has appointed \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/11/19/nx-s1-5189643/commerce-treasury-secretary-howard-lutnick-trump-cantor-fitzgerald\">pro-crypto Cabinet officials\u003c/a> and promised the industry much friendlier regulation.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>It’s up to the SEC to investigate accusations of insider trading\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Despite the wide-ranging calls for investigations into Trump’s social media posts on Wednesday, Painter and others aren’t expecting to see much happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Republican lawmakers who control both the House and Senate have shown little interest in picking fights with Trump. Nor do ethics experts expect much movement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which investigates accusations of insider trading.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Wednesday, the Senate\u003ca href=\"https://thehill.com/business/5241843-trump-sec-chair-pick-paul-atkins-confirmed-senate/\"> voted to confirm\u003c/a> Trump nominee \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/12/04/g-s1-36803/trump-crypto-paul-atkins-sec-chair\">Paul Atkins\u003c/a> to lead the SEC. And Trump in February \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/02/19/nx-s1-5302481/trump-independent-agencies\">signed an executive order\u003c/a> claiming more power over independent regulatory agencies, including the SEC.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An SEC spokesperson declined to comment on the matter.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>President Trump on Wednesday said on social media that he would pause tariffs on most countries for 90 days but would immediately hike tariffs on China to 125%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters at the White House that \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/02/nx-s1-5345802/trump-tariffs-liberation-day\">tariffs\u003c/a> would be brought down to a “universal 10%” level during the 90-day pause, aside from China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, “It took great courage — great courage — for him [Trump] to stay the course until this moment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bessent said China was the “biggest source” of trade issues for the United States and the rest of the world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m not calling it a trade war, but I’m saying that China has escalated, and President Trump responded very courageously to that, and we are going to work on a solution with the our trading partners,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bessent said the decision to pause tariffs was not made because of the sharp decline in \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5357405/stocks-tariffs-china-eu-trump-trade-war\">the stock market\u003c/a>, insisting the pause was needed to come to “bespoke” trade arrangements with other countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It is going to take some time, and President Trump wants to be personally involved. So that’s why we’re getting the 90-day pause,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12035190\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1600px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12035190\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1067\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7.jpg 1600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to the press outside the West Wing of the White House on Wednesday about President Trump’s decision to pause tariffs on US trading partners, but not for China. \u003ccite>(Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Bessent said that a range of issues would be on the table during talks with other countries, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) deals, non-tariff trade barriers, currency policies and subsidies. He said he has a meeting with Vietnamese officials today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These are complicated negotiations. These are imbalances that have taken decades to create,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bessent told reporters that Trump had made his decision on Sunday. “This was driven by the president’s strategy. He and I had a long talk on Sunday, and this was his strategy all along.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said that Trump had “goaded China into a bad position” with its decision to hike its own retaliatory tariff to \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/g-s1-59092/asian-markets-tumble-trump-tariffs\">84% on all U.S. imports\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>President Trump on Wednesday said on social media that he would pause tariffs on most countries for 90 days but would immediately hike tariffs on China to 125%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters at the White House that \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/02/nx-s1-5345802/trump-tariffs-liberation-day\">tariffs\u003c/a> would be brought down to a “universal 10%” level during the 90-day pause, aside from China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, “It took great courage — great courage — for him [Trump] to stay the course until this moment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bessent said China was the “biggest source” of trade issues for the United States and the rest of the world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m not calling it a trade war, but I’m saying that China has escalated, and President Trump responded very courageously to that, and we are going to work on a solution with the our trading partners,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bessent said the decision to pause tariffs was not made because of the sharp decline in \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5357405/stocks-tariffs-china-eu-trump-trade-war\">the stock market\u003c/a>, insisting the pause was needed to come to “bespoke” trade arrangements with other countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It is going to take some time, and President Trump wants to be personally involved. So that’s why we’re getting the 90-day pause,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12035190\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1600px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12035190\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1067\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7.jpg 1600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-copy-7-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to the press outside the West Wing of the White House on Wednesday about President Trump’s decision to pause tariffs on US trading partners, but not for China. \u003ccite>(Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Bessent said that a range of issues would be on the table during talks with other countries, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) deals, non-tariff trade barriers, currency policies and subsidies. He said he has a meeting with Vietnamese officials today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These are complicated negotiations. These are imbalances that have taken decades to create,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bessent told reporters that Trump had made his decision on Sunday. “This was driven by the president’s strategy. He and I had a long talk on Sunday, and this was his strategy all along.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said that Trump had “goaded China into a bad position” with its decision to hike its own retaliatory tariff to \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/g-s1-59092/asian-markets-tumble-trump-tariffs\">84% on all U.S. imports\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Bay Area Business Is Already Tough. After Trump’s Tariffs, Many Are Preparing for Pain",
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"content": "\u003cp>While President Donald Trump has defended \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101909473/the-fallout-of-trumps-expansive-tariffs\">his tariffs\u003c/a> as “medicine” for American industry during what he calls an economic emergency, many Bay Area small businesses that rely on imported goods are bracing for major upheaval.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trump’s aggressive trade policy unveiled last week sent shockwaves through the global economy and U.S. markets. In addition to a 10% baseline tax on all imported goods, the U.S. will impose “reciprocal” tariffs affecting dozens of trade partners.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those levies will increase costs for business owners — increases that many expect will be passed on to consumers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Taylor Peliska, an employee at King Kog Bicycle Shop in downtown Oakland, estimated that roughly 90% of the goods in the store are imported. If Trump’s tariffs on goods from China and Taiwan remain, prices will definitely increase, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Almost everything that we make is from overseas,” Peliska said. “I personally don’t think tariffs are bad … but to do it in a sort of blanket way doesn’t really make sense, and to do it without having any domestic infrastructure to replace it also doesn’t make sense.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Prices are going to go up, but for how long … we don’t know.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12034834\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12034834\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Taylor Peliska, a bicycle mechanic, works on a bike at King Kog Bicycle Shop in Oakland on April 7, 2025. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Other small businesses face the same uncertainty.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>China, which exported over \u003ca href=\"https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china\">$400 billion\u003c/a> worth of goods to the United States in 2024, faces a 34% tariff, which is set to take effect Wednesday. Trump also threatened this week to impose an \u003ca href=\"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114297331052690348\">additional 50% tariff \u003c/a>on China after the nation announced plans to issue a 34% import fee on the U.S. in retaliation for Trump’s initial announcement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Erik Bigglestone, who co-owns Games of Berkeley in the East Bay, said the store is already preparing for the worst. Nearly all of the board games and toys sold in the store are imported, and more than 90% of its products come from China, he said.[aside postID=news_12034730 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/iPhone16Getty-1020x680.jpg']Many manufacturers and store owners in the games industry are worried that the tariffs could put them out of business, Bigglestone said. Games of Berkeley, which has been in the community for nearly 45 years, is also at risk of going away, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Suppliers have warned him that some goods may go up 10% to 25% in price over the next few weeks. As a small business, Games of Berkeley will need to pass some of those additional costs onto consumers, which could deter them from shopping locally when companies such as Amazon will be able to eat more of those import taxes, he added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s already expensive to do business in the Bay Area,” he said. “When you start throwing more and more expenses on top of it, that can really make people think twice about whether they even want to try and weather that storm.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bigglestone said he and the game store’s other owners have discussed raising prices preemptively so that they’re prepared for increased import costs moving forward. They’re also looking at increasing the store’s used games inventory and eliminating less popular options.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a pain and trauma that is being inflicted without any thought to the actual real-world consequences,” Bigglesone said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12034836\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12034836\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bikes and bike frames for sale hang from the ceiling at King Kog Bicycle Shop in Oakland on April 7, 2025. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Neale Mahoney, a professor of economics at Stanford University, said Trump’s tariffs will have sweeping effects across most industries. Businesses that rely on imported goods will be the first to increase their prices, but suppliers that import raw materials will also need to adjust, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As those businesses begin increasing the prices of their goods, even companies that don’t rely on imports will be incentivized to follow suit, driving up the expected price for certain items universally, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, said it’s rare to see financial uncertainty that is so reversible. If Trump announced that the tariffs were canceled, a lot of the fear and anxiety driving the market would decrease, he said, referencing the sudden market downturn that followed Trump’s announcement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If these tariffs stay where they are, we’re talking about destroying global supply chains and global value chains,” Cummings said. “If the tariffs stay in place, it will not only be a recession but a deep recession. But it’s avoidable. It’s completely avoidable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12034835\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12034835\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-1920x1281.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A bicycle for sale at King Kog Bicycle Shop in Oakland on April 7, 2025, displays a “Made in Cambodia” sticker. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Back in Oakland, a few doors down from King Kog Bicycle Shop is Howden Market, a small corner store that sells artisanal wines, beers and other craft goods. Kanitha Matoury, the store’s owner, said she was drawn to the neighborhood because of the beautiful building and her passion for food, drink and community.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While Howden sources many of its products locally, several of its nearly 200 vendors get the raw materials for their cans and bottles from overseas, Matoury said, adding that the United States doesn’t have the infrastructure and the factories to keep up with demand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In recent years, inflation has made it difficult to stay afloat, Matoury said, adding that Trump’s tariffs will make it even harder. In cities such as Oakland, where the small business sector is taking a hit from increased rent and petty crime, store owners can’t take much more, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I believe, like what Barack Obama said, that small business is the backbone of our economy and the cornerstone of our community,” said Matoury, who is running for Oakland City Council. “Small businesses all over America are literally just closing shop.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Taylor Peliska, an employee at King Kog Bicycle Shop in downtown Oakland, estimated that roughly 90% of the goods in the store are imported. If Trump’s tariffs on goods from China and Taiwan remain, prices will definitely increase, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Almost everything that we make is from overseas,” Peliska said. “I personally don’t think tariffs are bad … but to do it in a sort of blanket way doesn’t really make sense, and to do it without having any domestic infrastructure to replace it also doesn’t make sense.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Prices are going to go up, but for how long … we don’t know.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12034834\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12034834\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-10-BL_QED-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Taylor Peliska, a bicycle mechanic, works on a bike at King Kog Bicycle Shop in Oakland on April 7, 2025. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Other small businesses face the same uncertainty.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>China, which exported over \u003ca href=\"https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china\">$400 billion\u003c/a> worth of goods to the United States in 2024, faces a 34% tariff, which is set to take effect Wednesday. Trump also threatened this week to impose an \u003ca href=\"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114297331052690348\">additional 50% tariff \u003c/a>on China after the nation announced plans to issue a 34% import fee on the U.S. in retaliation for Trump’s initial announcement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Erik Bigglestone, who co-owns Games of Berkeley in the East Bay, said the store is already preparing for the worst. Nearly all of the board games and toys sold in the store are imported, and more than 90% of its products come from China, he said.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Many manufacturers and store owners in the games industry are worried that the tariffs could put them out of business, Bigglestone said. Games of Berkeley, which has been in the community for nearly 45 years, is also at risk of going away, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Suppliers have warned him that some goods may go up 10% to 25% in price over the next few weeks. As a small business, Games of Berkeley will need to pass some of those additional costs onto consumers, which could deter them from shopping locally when companies such as Amazon will be able to eat more of those import taxes, he added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s already expensive to do business in the Bay Area,” he said. “When you start throwing more and more expenses on top of it, that can really make people think twice about whether they even want to try and weather that storm.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bigglestone said he and the game store’s other owners have discussed raising prices preemptively so that they’re prepared for increased import costs moving forward. They’re also looking at increasing the store’s used games inventory and eliminating less popular options.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a pain and trauma that is being inflicted without any thought to the actual real-world consequences,” Bigglesone said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12034836\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12034836\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-13-BL_QED-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bikes and bike frames for sale hang from the ceiling at King Kog Bicycle Shop in Oakland on April 7, 2025. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Neale Mahoney, a professor of economics at Stanford University, said Trump’s tariffs will have sweeping effects across most industries. Businesses that rely on imported goods will be the first to increase their prices, but suppliers that import raw materials will also need to adjust, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As those businesses begin increasing the prices of their goods, even companies that don’t rely on imports will be incentivized to follow suit, driving up the expected price for certain items universally, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, said it’s rare to see financial uncertainty that is so reversible. If Trump announced that the tariffs were canceled, a lot of the fear and anxiety driving the market would decrease, he said, referencing the sudden market downturn that followed Trump’s announcement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If these tariffs stay where they are, we’re talking about destroying global supply chains and global value chains,” Cummings said. “If the tariffs stay in place, it will not only be a recession but a deep recession. But it’s avoidable. It’s completely avoidable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12034835\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12034835\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250407-TARIFFSBAYAREASMALLBIZ-12-BL_QED-KQED-1920x1281.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A bicycle for sale at King Kog Bicycle Shop in Oakland on April 7, 2025, displays a “Made in Cambodia” sticker. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Back in Oakland, a few doors down from King Kog Bicycle Shop is Howden Market, a small corner store that sells artisanal wines, beers and other craft goods. Kanitha Matoury, the store’s owner, said she was drawn to the neighborhood because of the beautiful building and her passion for food, drink and community.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While Howden sources many of its products locally, several of its nearly 200 vendors get the raw materials for their cans and bottles from overseas, Matoury said, adding that the United States doesn’t have the infrastructure and the factories to keep up with demand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In recent years, inflation has made it difficult to stay afloat, Matoury said, adding that Trump’s tariffs will make it even harder. In cities such as Oakland, where the small business sector is taking a hit from increased rent and petty crime, store owners can’t take much more, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I believe, like what Barack Obama said, that small business is the backbone of our economy and the cornerstone of our community,” said Matoury, who is running for Oakland City Council. “Small businesses all over America are literally just closing shop.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12033934/como-recibir-tercer-cheque-de-estimulo\">\u003cem>Leer en español\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For many of us, 2021 feels like yesterday — instead of a whole four years ago. Year two of the COVID-19 pandemic \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11855623/where-can-i-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-bay-area-your-questions-answered\">saw the vaccine rollout\u003c/a>, but it also brought the federal government’s \u003ca href=\"https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/blog/2021/03/10/the-american-rescue-plan-passed-now-what/\">American Rescue Plan\u003c/a>, which included \u003ca href=\"https://www.pandemicoversight.gov/data-interactive-tools/data-stories/update-three-rounds-stimulus-checks-see-how-many-went-out-and\">a third round of stimulus checks\u003c/a>: $1,400 for most taxpayers in the U.S., along with an additional $1,400 for each of their dependents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In order to receive this stimulus check back in March 2021, a household would need to have filed their taxes in 2020 or 2019. That’s because the federal government looked at tax returns in order to determine how many people lived in that household and, therefore, how big their payment should be. For example, if you and your spouse filed jointly and listed two children as dependents, your home would have received a stimulus check for $5,600 — $1,400 times four — in 2021.[aside postID=news_12030564 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/taxes041511_qed-1020x682.jpg']If a household hadn’t filed their taxes for 2019 or 2020 at the time the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) was cutting the stimulus checks, they missed out on getting that money. But since then, the IRS introduced the \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/economic-impact-payments\">Recovery Rebate Credit that those exact people\u003c/a> could claim — by filing their \u003cem>2021 \u003c/em>taxes if they hadn’t done so already.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, the deadline to claim this money from the Recovery Rebate Credit is just a week away: April 15, a.k.a. Tax Day 2025, is the last day to file your 2021 tax return. The IRS estimated in March that \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/taxpayers-should-act-now-to-claim-more-than-1-billion-in-refunds-for-tax-year-2021-with-the-april-15-deadline-fast-approaching\">more than 116,000 Californians have unclaimed refunds for tax year 2021\u003c/a> — which represents millions of dollars in unclaimed cash.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are many people that we’ve been speaking to that haven’t filed and didn’t know that this was still an option,” said Amy Spivey, professor and director of the Low-Income Taxpayer Clinic at UC College of the Law in San Francisco. “So if you have not filed for 2021 and you’ve not yet received the $1,400, definitely file by April 15 to preserve your right to receive that refund.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Keep reading for what to know about filing your 2021 taxes if you haven’t already and how doing so could help you secure the Recovery Rebate Credit. Bear in mind that everyone’s tax situation is different, and it’s always a good idea to seek professional advice if you’re in doubt. See \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11909786/how-to-find-free-tax-help-near-you-and-prepare-everything-you-need-for-your-appointment\">where to find free or low-cost tax preparation services near you.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>How is a 2021 tax credit still available in 2025?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>If you’re wondering why Tax Day 2025 is the deadline to claim the Recovery Rebate Credit, years after the third round of stimulus checks were sent out, it’s because IRS rules \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/filing-past-due-tax-returns\">give taxpayers three years to file their taxes from the original due date\u003c/a> in order to claim any refunds or credits from that year. And since the original deadline to file your 2021 tax returns was April 18, 2022, that means this year’s Tax Day is the \u003cem>final\u003c/em> deadline to file for that year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That three-year grace period to file is “expiring on April 15, 2025,” Spivey said. “So as long as it was mailed by April 15, 2025, and you have proof of the mailing … then you’ve preserved your right to claim that credit.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Who qualifies for the Recovery Rebate Credit in 2025?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>According to the IRS, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/2021-recovery-rebate-credit-topic-c-eligibility-for-claiming-a-recovery-rebate-credit-on-a-2021-tax-return\">you are eligible for the Recovery Rebate Credit if\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>You were a U.S. citizen or U.S. resident alien during the 2021 calendar year, and;\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>You were not claimed as a dependent of another taxpayer in 2021, and;\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>You either have a valid Social Security number (SSN) or are filing jointly with a spouse who does, or you’re claiming a dependent who has a valid SSN or Adoption Taxpayer Identification Number.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Even if you did not have income in 2021 or received unemployment benefits for most of that year, you may still be eligible for this credit — but you’ll still have to file your 2021 taxes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are some things, however, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/2021-recovery-rebate-credit-topic-c-eligibility-for-claiming-a-recovery-rebate-credit-on-a-2021-tax-return\">that would disqualify you from receiving the credit\u003c/a>, including:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>Residency:\u003c/strong> You are currently a nonresident alien without an SSN (and file your taxes using an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number, or ITIN)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>Income limits:\u003c/strong> If you are a single filer and your adjusted gross income (AGI) in 2021 was more than $80,000, you will not receive the credit. The AGI limit for married couples filing jointly is $160,000 and $112,500 for those filing as head of household.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12031207\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2119px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12031207\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2119\" height=\"1415\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917.jpg 2119w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-2048x1368.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-1920x1282.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2119px) 100vw, 2119px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">That 3-year grace period to file expires on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Nora Carol Photography/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Will I have to pay a late penalty if I file my 2021 taxes in 2025?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>That depends. The IRS will only charge you a late filing penalty if your 2021 filings show that you owe them money.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But if they owe \u003cem>you \u003c/em>a refund, said Spivey from UC Law, “you do not get charged a penalty for the late filing of the tax returns.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For example, you didn’t owe any taxes, you just are claiming your stimulus check, and you’re going to get a $1,400 refund, then there wouldn’t be any penalties associated with that,” she added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, let’s say you \u003cem>do\u003c/em> owe the IRS money on your taxes. For example, say that you were working back in 2021 and asked your employer not to deduct federal taxes from your monthly paycheck. Because of this decision, you are expected to pay a percentage of that 2021 income when filing your taxes for that year — and if you are filing those taxes now, you still owe the IRS that percentage in 2025.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“[A late filing penalty] would be a percentage of how much was due on the bottom of your refund,” Spivey said. But she said it “still might be worth” filing your 2021 tax return by April 15 even if you owe money “because you’ll still get credit for that $1,400 … to reduce how much that you owe on that tax return.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another caveat: The IRS notes that taxpayers seeking their 2021 tax refund may not get it \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/taxpayers-should-act-now-to-claim-more-than-1-billion-in-refunds-for-tax-year-2021-with-the-april-15-deadline-fast-approaching\">if they still haven’t filed their 2022 and 2023 tax returns\u003c/a>. But if dealing with the IRS seems challenging or intimidating, Spivey reminds folks that they aren’t alone in this process — and that if you’re finding the paperwork challenging or have been denied the Recovery Rebate Credit even after filing your 2021 taxes, you can contact \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11909786/how-to-find-free-tax-help-near-you-and-prepare-everything-you-need-for-your-appointment\">a free or low-cost tax clinic like UC’s Law’s\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If there are any problems,” she said, “a low-income taxpayer clinic might be able to help [you] obtain those funds.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12033934/como-recibir-tercer-cheque-de-estimulo\">\u003cem>Leer en español\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For many of us, 2021 feels like yesterday — instead of a whole four years ago. Year two of the COVID-19 pandemic \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11855623/where-can-i-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-bay-area-your-questions-answered\">saw the vaccine rollout\u003c/a>, but it also brought the federal government’s \u003ca href=\"https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/blog/2021/03/10/the-american-rescue-plan-passed-now-what/\">American Rescue Plan\u003c/a>, which included \u003ca href=\"https://www.pandemicoversight.gov/data-interactive-tools/data-stories/update-three-rounds-stimulus-checks-see-how-many-went-out-and\">a third round of stimulus checks\u003c/a>: $1,400 for most taxpayers in the U.S., along with an additional $1,400 for each of their dependents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In order to receive this stimulus check back in March 2021, a household would need to have filed their taxes in 2020 or 2019. That’s because the federal government looked at tax returns in order to determine how many people lived in that household and, therefore, how big their payment should be. For example, if you and your spouse filed jointly and listed two children as dependents, your home would have received a stimulus check for $5,600 — $1,400 times four — in 2021.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>If a household hadn’t filed their taxes for 2019 or 2020 at the time the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) was cutting the stimulus checks, they missed out on getting that money. But since then, the IRS introduced the \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/economic-impact-payments\">Recovery Rebate Credit that those exact people\u003c/a> could claim — by filing their \u003cem>2021 \u003c/em>taxes if they hadn’t done so already.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, the deadline to claim this money from the Recovery Rebate Credit is just a week away: April 15, a.k.a. Tax Day 2025, is the last day to file your 2021 tax return. The IRS estimated in March that \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/taxpayers-should-act-now-to-claim-more-than-1-billion-in-refunds-for-tax-year-2021-with-the-april-15-deadline-fast-approaching\">more than 116,000 Californians have unclaimed refunds for tax year 2021\u003c/a> — which represents millions of dollars in unclaimed cash.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are many people that we’ve been speaking to that haven’t filed and didn’t know that this was still an option,” said Amy Spivey, professor and director of the Low-Income Taxpayer Clinic at UC College of the Law in San Francisco. “So if you have not filed for 2021 and you’ve not yet received the $1,400, definitely file by April 15 to preserve your right to receive that refund.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Keep reading for what to know about filing your 2021 taxes if you haven’t already and how doing so could help you secure the Recovery Rebate Credit. Bear in mind that everyone’s tax situation is different, and it’s always a good idea to seek professional advice if you’re in doubt. See \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11909786/how-to-find-free-tax-help-near-you-and-prepare-everything-you-need-for-your-appointment\">where to find free or low-cost tax preparation services near you.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>How is a 2021 tax credit still available in 2025?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>If you’re wondering why Tax Day 2025 is the deadline to claim the Recovery Rebate Credit, years after the third round of stimulus checks were sent out, it’s because IRS rules \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/filing-past-due-tax-returns\">give taxpayers three years to file their taxes from the original due date\u003c/a> in order to claim any refunds or credits from that year. And since the original deadline to file your 2021 tax returns was April 18, 2022, that means this year’s Tax Day is the \u003cem>final\u003c/em> deadline to file for that year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That three-year grace period to file is “expiring on April 15, 2025,” Spivey said. “So as long as it was mailed by April 15, 2025, and you have proof of the mailing … then you’ve preserved your right to claim that credit.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Who qualifies for the Recovery Rebate Credit in 2025?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>According to the IRS, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/2021-recovery-rebate-credit-topic-c-eligibility-for-claiming-a-recovery-rebate-credit-on-a-2021-tax-return\">you are eligible for the Recovery Rebate Credit if\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>You were a U.S. citizen or U.S. resident alien during the 2021 calendar year, and;\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>You were not claimed as a dependent of another taxpayer in 2021, and;\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>You either have a valid Social Security number (SSN) or are filing jointly with a spouse who does, or you’re claiming a dependent who has a valid SSN or Adoption Taxpayer Identification Number.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Even if you did not have income in 2021 or received unemployment benefits for most of that year, you may still be eligible for this credit — but you’ll still have to file your 2021 taxes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are some things, however, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/2021-recovery-rebate-credit-topic-c-eligibility-for-claiming-a-recovery-rebate-credit-on-a-2021-tax-return\">that would disqualify you from receiving the credit\u003c/a>, including:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>Residency:\u003c/strong> You are currently a nonresident alien without an SSN (and file your taxes using an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number, or ITIN)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>Income limits:\u003c/strong> If you are a single filer and your adjusted gross income (AGI) in 2021 was more than $80,000, you will not receive the credit. The AGI limit for married couples filing jointly is $160,000 and $112,500 for those filing as head of household.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12031207\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2119px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12031207\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2119\" height=\"1415\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917.jpg 2119w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-2048x1368.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/GettyImages-1379321917-1920x1282.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2119px) 100vw, 2119px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">That 3-year grace period to file expires on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Nora Carol Photography/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Will I have to pay a late penalty if I file my 2021 taxes in 2025?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>That depends. The IRS will only charge you a late filing penalty if your 2021 filings show that you owe them money.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But if they owe \u003cem>you \u003c/em>a refund, said Spivey from UC Law, “you do not get charged a penalty for the late filing of the tax returns.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For example, you didn’t owe any taxes, you just are claiming your stimulus check, and you’re going to get a $1,400 refund, then there wouldn’t be any penalties associated with that,” she added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, let’s say you \u003cem>do\u003c/em> owe the IRS money on your taxes. For example, say that you were working back in 2021 and asked your employer not to deduct federal taxes from your monthly paycheck. Because of this decision, you are expected to pay a percentage of that 2021 income when filing your taxes for that year — and if you are filing those taxes now, you still owe the IRS that percentage in 2025.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“[A late filing penalty] would be a percentage of how much was due on the bottom of your refund,” Spivey said. But she said it “still might be worth” filing your 2021 tax return by April 15 even if you owe money “because you’ll still get credit for that $1,400 … to reduce how much that you owe on that tax return.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another caveat: The IRS notes that taxpayers seeking their 2021 tax refund may not get it \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/taxpayers-should-act-now-to-claim-more-than-1-billion-in-refunds-for-tax-year-2021-with-the-april-15-deadline-fast-approaching\">if they still haven’t filed their 2022 and 2023 tax returns\u003c/a>. But if dealing with the IRS seems challenging or intimidating, Spivey reminds folks that they aren’t alone in this process — and that if you’re finding the paperwork challenging or have been denied the Recovery Rebate Credit even after filing your 2021 taxes, you can contact \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11909786/how-to-find-free-tax-help-near-you-and-prepare-everything-you-need-for-your-appointment\">a free or low-cost tax clinic like UC’s Law’s\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If there are any problems,” she said, “a low-income taxpayer clinic might be able to help [you] obtain those funds.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports have rattled local business owners. Some worry that the costs will trickle down to consumers and discourage businesses already struggling to afford operating in the Bay Area.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Some members of the KQED podcast team are represented by The Screen Actors Guild, American Federation of Television and Radio Artists. San Francisco Northern California Local.\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://playlist.megaphone.fm?e=KQINC8865768433&light=true\" width=\"100%\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is a computer-generated transcript. While it has been reviewed by our team, there may be some errors.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:01:16] So, Samantha Trump announced these tariffs, which actually technically go into effect today. What exactly did he announce?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:01:26] So last week on what Trump declared to be Liberation Day, he announced a baseline 10% tariff to be charged on all imported goods. Trump also introduced additional tariffs on dozens of countries, I think about 60, in response to what he called an economic emergency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Trump \u003c/strong>[00:01:52] But now it’s our turn to prosper, and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt, and it’ll all happen very quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:02:05] Trump has defended the tariffs by saying that they’re a quote unquote necessary medicine for the American economy. He believes they’ll bring factory jobs back to the United States and in essence, punish countries that have exploited American trade relations. But economists are warning that the aggressive trade policy could have effects on the American economy and its sustainability.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:02:33] So how exactly are these tariffs supposed to work?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:02:38] A tariff is a tax paid on goods imported into a particular country, in this case the United States. Tariffs are actually paid by the importer to the U.S. Treasury, so it’s not the country exporting the goods that handles the costs, it’s whatever company or business importing items into the US.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:02:57] So which countries are we talking about are facing some of the highest tariffs?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:03:02] Largely Asian countries are taking the brunt of this tariff policy. We’re looking at nations like Cambodia facing a 49% tariff and Vietnam facing a 46% tarif. And in particular, one of the United States’ largest trading partners, China, is in the midst of what’s becoming a trade war with US. The United States originally announced that China would be facing a 34% tariff, and this is in addition to a previously imposed 20% baseline. After the Chinese government, however, threatened to retaliate with its own tariff on the United States, Trump then threatened to levy an additional 50% tarif on the country. So it’s escalating as it goes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:03:50] I can imagine that’s a lot of industries here then that might be affected. Do we have a sense of what industries might be bearing the brunt of these tariffs?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:04:01] Because of the sweeping nature of the trade policy that Trump introduced, it seems like no industry is really being spared or at least that’s what many of the economists I spoke to told me. Generally though, we’re seeing things like the tech industry take the biggest hit. Tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia took a huge hit immediately following the tariff announcement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:04:26] And as you found in your reporting that includes local businesses here in the Bay Area, tell me about where you went for your reporting and what you set out to do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:04:40] So yesterday, a few days after the tariff policy was originally announced, I had the opportunity to talk to a few business owners and employees who operate in the East Bay. One of them was Games of Berkeley. It’s a locally-owned board game store that’s operated in the East Bay for nearly 45 years. And it has three owners, one of whom I got to speak with Eric Bigglestone, who told me that nearly all of the products in store will be impacted by the tariffs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Eric Bigglestone \u003c/strong>[00:05:11] There is all sorts of very deep concern about whether it’s going to cause a lot of folks to go out of business.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:05:21] What kind of things are we talking about? I imagine like Yu-Gi-Oh cards or Pokemon cards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:05:30] Yeah, so if you’ve ever been to Games of Berkley, it’s like a retro board game wonderland. He has card games, like you mentioned, Yu-Gi-Oh and Pokemon cards, trading items, but it’s a really cool space.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:05:49] What specifically for Eric though on his side is going to cost more?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:05:55] So Eric told me more than 90% of those goods come directly from China. He was very clear that this is going to have an impact on his store and on the prices of his products.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Eric Bigglestone \u003c/strong>[00:06:07] Most of our distributors are at about 10% right now. One of our suppliers sent us an email last week that said, as of April 5th, the cost to you increases by 10%. And then as of May 1st, it increases by 25%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:06:30] He’s also talked about cutting some of the supply in his store, omitting those games that maybe don’t sell as well or not as popular. There’s also discussion about expanding their stock of vintage and used games as a way of getting around import fees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Eric Bigglestone \u003c/strong>[00:06:49] You know, we’ve been in business now for 45 years. We would hate for something like this to knock us out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:06:57] I mean, what did Eric tell you about how he’s feeling right now as a business owner in Berkeley? I imagine it’s a little scary.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:07:07] I’m hearing from him and other business owners that the biggest feeling is uncertainty and fear when you think about something like a tariff policy where there’s not really any way to mitigate it if you’re a business owner that relies on imported goods. There’s no idea or sense of what will happen. And his biggest fear is that as a result of these tariffs, a lot of community-owned businesses, including Games of Berkeley, may have to shut down as a result. He’s just very scared and worried.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Eric Bigglestone \u003c/strong>[00:07:40] If you’ve got someone who was already on the fence between whether they were gonna purchase from us or purchase from, say, Amazon, which can continue to afford to discount deeply, then that gives them, unfortunately, even more incentive to buy from elsewhere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:08:13] You also went to a bike shop in Oakland. Who did you talk to there?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:08:27] I also visited a bike shop called King Kog Bicycle Shop in downtown Oakland. They’ve been around for nearly 15 years. And there I got to speak with employee Taylor Poliska.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taylor Poliska \u003c/strong>[00:08:40] Like probably 90 to 99% is all imported. And so, yeah, it’s gonna be interesting to see. I mean, our prices for sure are gonna go up eventually, like right now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:08:51] And for a bike shop, I guess what kinds of parts or things are imported from elsewhere for them?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:08:59] I mean, just looking around the store, I was able to see some of the labels. We’re talking about tools, bike parts, gears, oil. These things are coming from other countries. Even the raw materials for certain goods. If an item is manufactured in the United States, some component of it may come from a country like China, and so you have to think about the raw materials as well, those are also being taxed as they’re imported in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:09:27] Are people like Taylor also worried about potentially going out of business?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha \u003c/strong>[00:09:32] So Taylor told me something pretty interesting. He worked in bike repairs and bike manufacturing during the pandemic. And he said, even then, when we saw the economy take quite a big hit, he said people during times of economic uncertainty like to go on bikes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taylor Poliska \u003c/strong>[00:09:53] Bikes are one of those things that I don’t want to say are like recession proof, but like people tend to buy and like bike more in recessions because they’re like a cheap alternative to transportation and they’re, like going out on a bike ride is kind of like a mini vacation. But definitely talking with people in the industry, everything that we make is from overseas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:10:19] One thing that Taylor mentioned is that he doesn’t entirely disagree with tariffs, but he disagrees with the way that it’s being carried out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taylor Poliska \u003c/strong>[00:10:29] Protecting American infrastructure and American jobs through controlling markets, I think is a really valuable thing. But to do it sort of blanket doesn’t really make a lot of sense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:10:42] He thinks that sweeping tariffs on imported goods as a whole is unfeasible considering that the United States does not have factories to keep up with the demand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taylor Poliska \u003c/strong>[00:10:54] And to do it without having any sort of domestic infrastructure to replace it doesn’t make a lot of sense. It’s just people are like, we don’t know. We don’t what’s going on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:11:07] Well, zooming out here, Samantha, I mean, President Trump says that these tariffs are temporary, it’s a sort of necessary evil in response to other countries’ sort of unfair trade practices. But I know you spoke to some economists about the potential impact of all of this. What did they tell you?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:11:31] So one economist I spoke to was Neale Mahoney. He’s a professor of economics at Stanford and a member of the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research. He said, there have been few times where a economic policy like the one being instated now has had such a huge and immediate effect.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Neale Mahoney \u003c/strong>[00:11:54] The tariffs are going to raise prices that consumers see or pretty much everything they purchase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:12:02] We saw stock market indexes like the S&P 500 take major blows immediately after the policy was announced. It dropped nearly 5% just a couple of days after. And Neale was talking about the effects it may have on consumption as a whole.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Neale Mahoney \u003c/strong>[00:12:21] When consumers become worried, they hold back. When firms face uncertainty, they pull back on hiring, they pull back on their investments. So, we’ve already seen those troubling decreases in consumer confidence.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:12:37] Companies that import goods will have to increase their prices to offset the additional costs, and even those that produce their products in the United States, like I mentioned, will have to rely on other countries like China, Canada, and Mexico, for example, for raw materials.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:12:56] And I imagine that’s all gonna sort of fall onto the consumer, which, I mean, if I may just speak for myself and all the people around me, I feel like there’s already been so much anxiety about inflation, things getting more expensive, it already being difficult to afford, living in the Bay Area. I mean what is this going to mean for Bay Area consumers?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:13:22] So one thing that Neale mentioned was how integrated the Bay Area is in just the larger international economy. We’re surrounded on all sides by major corporations and a robust small business sector.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Neale Mahoney \u003c/strong>[00:13:36] Our fate is closely tied to the global economy. The Bay Area is just sort of more integrated with the rest of the world than pretty much any other place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:13:49] Neale said that there are few industries and or people who are not going to feel the brunt of a policy like Trump’s. And all of that is bolstered by the uncertainty we’re feeling in the market. Neale talked about anxiety and uncertainty being the primary driver of not only our stock but also our consumption. and so it’s definitely going to be difficult to traverse if the policy stands.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Neale Mahoney \u003c/strong>[00:14:21] We are going to see a lot of people deciding to press pause on their hiring, on their investment, on sort of the types of business activity that make the economy work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:14:43] Well, I want to come back to, I guess, the people that you talked to, Samantha. How would you summarize, I think, the mood and the vibes right now?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:14:55] I think the general consensus is that people are tired. In addition to being uncertain and anxious, Trump’s policies since he took office in January have instilled a lot of fear into broader society. And I think now with this additional economic turmoil, people are either choosing to fight back and other people are just waiting to see what happens next.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:15:28] Well, Samantha, thank you so much for your reporting. I appreciate it.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports have rattled local business owners. Some worry that the costs will trickle down to consumers and discourage businesses already struggling to afford operating in the Bay Area.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Some members of the KQED podcast team are represented by The Screen Actors Guild, American Federation of Television and Radio Artists. San Francisco Northern California Local.\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://playlist.megaphone.fm?e=KQINC8865768433&light=true\" width=\"100%\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is a computer-generated transcript. While it has been reviewed by our team, there may be some errors.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:01:16] So, Samantha Trump announced these tariffs, which actually technically go into effect today. What exactly did he announce?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:01:26] So last week on what Trump declared to be Liberation Day, he announced a baseline 10% tariff to be charged on all imported goods. Trump also introduced additional tariffs on dozens of countries, I think about 60, in response to what he called an economic emergency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Trump \u003c/strong>[00:01:52] But now it’s our turn to prosper, and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt, and it’ll all happen very quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:02:05] Trump has defended the tariffs by saying that they’re a quote unquote necessary medicine for the American economy. He believes they’ll bring factory jobs back to the United States and in essence, punish countries that have exploited American trade relations. But economists are warning that the aggressive trade policy could have effects on the American economy and its sustainability.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:02:33] So how exactly are these tariffs supposed to work?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:02:38] A tariff is a tax paid on goods imported into a particular country, in this case the United States. Tariffs are actually paid by the importer to the U.S. Treasury, so it’s not the country exporting the goods that handles the costs, it’s whatever company or business importing items into the US.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:02:57] So which countries are we talking about are facing some of the highest tariffs?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:03:02] Largely Asian countries are taking the brunt of this tariff policy. We’re looking at nations like Cambodia facing a 49% tariff and Vietnam facing a 46% tarif. And in particular, one of the United States’ largest trading partners, China, is in the midst of what’s becoming a trade war with US. The United States originally announced that China would be facing a 34% tariff, and this is in addition to a previously imposed 20% baseline. After the Chinese government, however, threatened to retaliate with its own tariff on the United States, Trump then threatened to levy an additional 50% tarif on the country. So it’s escalating as it goes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:03:50] I can imagine that’s a lot of industries here then that might be affected. Do we have a sense of what industries might be bearing the brunt of these tariffs?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:04:01] Because of the sweeping nature of the trade policy that Trump introduced, it seems like no industry is really being spared or at least that’s what many of the economists I spoke to told me. Generally though, we’re seeing things like the tech industry take the biggest hit. Tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia took a huge hit immediately following the tariff announcement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:04:26] And as you found in your reporting that includes local businesses here in the Bay Area, tell me about where you went for your reporting and what you set out to do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:04:40] So yesterday, a few days after the tariff policy was originally announced, I had the opportunity to talk to a few business owners and employees who operate in the East Bay. One of them was Games of Berkeley. It’s a locally-owned board game store that’s operated in the East Bay for nearly 45 years. And it has three owners, one of whom I got to speak with Eric Bigglestone, who told me that nearly all of the products in store will be impacted by the tariffs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Eric Bigglestone \u003c/strong>[00:05:11] There is all sorts of very deep concern about whether it’s going to cause a lot of folks to go out of business.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:05:21] What kind of things are we talking about? I imagine like Yu-Gi-Oh cards or Pokemon cards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:05:30] Yeah, so if you’ve ever been to Games of Berkley, it’s like a retro board game wonderland. He has card games, like you mentioned, Yu-Gi-Oh and Pokemon cards, trading items, but it’s a really cool space.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:05:49] What specifically for Eric though on his side is going to cost more?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:05:55] So Eric told me more than 90% of those goods come directly from China. He was very clear that this is going to have an impact on his store and on the prices of his products.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Eric Bigglestone \u003c/strong>[00:06:07] Most of our distributors are at about 10% right now. One of our suppliers sent us an email last week that said, as of April 5th, the cost to you increases by 10%. And then as of May 1st, it increases by 25%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:06:30] He’s also talked about cutting some of the supply in his store, omitting those games that maybe don’t sell as well or not as popular. There’s also discussion about expanding their stock of vintage and used games as a way of getting around import fees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Eric Bigglestone \u003c/strong>[00:06:49] You know, we’ve been in business now for 45 years. We would hate for something like this to knock us out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:06:57] I mean, what did Eric tell you about how he’s feeling right now as a business owner in Berkeley? I imagine it’s a little scary.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:07:07] I’m hearing from him and other business owners that the biggest feeling is uncertainty and fear when you think about something like a tariff policy where there’s not really any way to mitigate it if you’re a business owner that relies on imported goods. There’s no idea or sense of what will happen. And his biggest fear is that as a result of these tariffs, a lot of community-owned businesses, including Games of Berkeley, may have to shut down as a result. He’s just very scared and worried.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Eric Bigglestone \u003c/strong>[00:07:40] If you’ve got someone who was already on the fence between whether they were gonna purchase from us or purchase from, say, Amazon, which can continue to afford to discount deeply, then that gives them, unfortunately, even more incentive to buy from elsewhere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:08:13] You also went to a bike shop in Oakland. Who did you talk to there?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:08:27] I also visited a bike shop called King Kog Bicycle Shop in downtown Oakland. They’ve been around for nearly 15 years. And there I got to speak with employee Taylor Poliska.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taylor Poliska \u003c/strong>[00:08:40] Like probably 90 to 99% is all imported. And so, yeah, it’s gonna be interesting to see. I mean, our prices for sure are gonna go up eventually, like right now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:08:51] And for a bike shop, I guess what kinds of parts or things are imported from elsewhere for them?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:08:59] I mean, just looking around the store, I was able to see some of the labels. We’re talking about tools, bike parts, gears, oil. These things are coming from other countries. Even the raw materials for certain goods. If an item is manufactured in the United States, some component of it may come from a country like China, and so you have to think about the raw materials as well, those are also being taxed as they’re imported in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:09:27] Are people like Taylor also worried about potentially going out of business?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha \u003c/strong>[00:09:32] So Taylor told me something pretty interesting. He worked in bike repairs and bike manufacturing during the pandemic. And he said, even then, when we saw the economy take quite a big hit, he said people during times of economic uncertainty like to go on bikes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taylor Poliska \u003c/strong>[00:09:53] Bikes are one of those things that I don’t want to say are like recession proof, but like people tend to buy and like bike more in recessions because they’re like a cheap alternative to transportation and they’re, like going out on a bike ride is kind of like a mini vacation. But definitely talking with people in the industry, everything that we make is from overseas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:10:19] One thing that Taylor mentioned is that he doesn’t entirely disagree with tariffs, but he disagrees with the way that it’s being carried out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taylor Poliska \u003c/strong>[00:10:29] Protecting American infrastructure and American jobs through controlling markets, I think is a really valuable thing. But to do it sort of blanket doesn’t really make a lot of sense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:10:42] He thinks that sweeping tariffs on imported goods as a whole is unfeasible considering that the United States does not have factories to keep up with the demand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taylor Poliska \u003c/strong>[00:10:54] And to do it without having any sort of domestic infrastructure to replace it doesn’t make a lot of sense. It’s just people are like, we don’t know. We don’t what’s going on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:11:07] Well, zooming out here, Samantha, I mean, President Trump says that these tariffs are temporary, it’s a sort of necessary evil in response to other countries’ sort of unfair trade practices. But I know you spoke to some economists about the potential impact of all of this. What did they tell you?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:11:31] So one economist I spoke to was Neale Mahoney. He’s a professor of economics at Stanford and a member of the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research. He said, there have been few times where a economic policy like the one being instated now has had such a huge and immediate effect.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Neale Mahoney \u003c/strong>[00:11:54] The tariffs are going to raise prices that consumers see or pretty much everything they purchase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:12:02] We saw stock market indexes like the S&P 500 take major blows immediately after the policy was announced. It dropped nearly 5% just a couple of days after. And Neale was talking about the effects it may have on consumption as a whole.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Neale Mahoney \u003c/strong>[00:12:21] When consumers become worried, they hold back. When firms face uncertainty, they pull back on hiring, they pull back on their investments. So, we’ve already seen those troubling decreases in consumer confidence.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:12:37] Companies that import goods will have to increase their prices to offset the additional costs, and even those that produce their products in the United States, like I mentioned, will have to rely on other countries like China, Canada, and Mexico, for example, for raw materials.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:12:56] And I imagine that’s all gonna sort of fall onto the consumer, which, I mean, if I may just speak for myself and all the people around me, I feel like there’s already been so much anxiety about inflation, things getting more expensive, it already being difficult to afford, living in the Bay Area. I mean what is this going to mean for Bay Area consumers?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:13:22] So one thing that Neale mentioned was how integrated the Bay Area is in just the larger international economy. We’re surrounded on all sides by major corporations and a robust small business sector.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Neale Mahoney \u003c/strong>[00:13:36] Our fate is closely tied to the global economy. The Bay Area is just sort of more integrated with the rest of the world than pretty much any other place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:13:49] Neale said that there are few industries and or people who are not going to feel the brunt of a policy like Trump’s. And all of that is bolstered by the uncertainty we’re feeling in the market. Neale talked about anxiety and uncertainty being the primary driver of not only our stock but also our consumption. and so it’s definitely going to be difficult to traverse if the policy stands.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Neale Mahoney \u003c/strong>[00:14:21] We are going to see a lot of people deciding to press pause on their hiring, on their investment, on sort of the types of business activity that make the economy work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:14:43] Well, I want to come back to, I guess, the people that you talked to, Samantha. How would you summarize, I think, the mood and the vibes right now?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Samantha Lim \u003c/strong>[00:14:55] I think the general consensus is that people are tired. In addition to being uncertain and anxious, Trump’s policies since he took office in January have instilled a lot of fear into broader society. And I think now with this additional economic turmoil, people are either choosing to fight back and other people are just waiting to see what happens next.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ericka Cruz Guevarra \u003c/strong>[00:15:28] Well, Samantha, thank you so much for your reporting. I appreciate it.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>When \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/02/nx-s1-5345802/trump-tariffs-liberation-day\">President Trump announced his latest tariffs\u003c/a> on Wednesday, he also ignited an economic mystery. Just where in the world did those numbers come from?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Holding up a sign on the White House lawn, Trump pointed to a new, 34% tax on imports from China; for the EU, a tax of 20%. Vietnam got 46%; India, 26%. Nigeria? Just 15 percent. Trump claimed that these “reciprocal” tariffs reflect how other countries already tax American products. “That means they do it to us and we do it to them,” he said. “Very simple.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That is not true. These are not reciprocal tariffs. They do not correspond to the tariff rates in other countries. The truth behind where these tariffs came from is far more interesting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Wednesday night, the administration revealed how they calculated the new tariffs, which are the highest taxes on foreign products that America has seen in generations. (For a sense of that era, listen to the \u003ca href=\"https://open.spotify.com/episode/1Xu7WphFFwtQpWmnZ5dn4f?si=bftF4o2PQoaysSOZ21jFJw\">Planet Money episode on the Smoot-Hawley tariffs\u003c/a>.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Buried in that math, finally, is a straightforward answer to a question that Trump has long refused to straightforwardly answer: How much will his tariffs raise prices?\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Diving deep into Trump’s tariff math\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>This is \u003ca href=\"https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations\">the Trump administration’s tariff formula\u003c/a>, as revealed on Wednesday night by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative:\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12034435\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12034435\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"433\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2.jpg 1024w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2-800x338.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2-1020x431.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2-160x68.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Trump administration’s tariff formula. \u003ccite>(Screenshot from ustr.gov)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Behind these Greek letters there’s a blunt but understandable approach. Essentially, the equation is trying to answer the question: How high should we set tariffs in order to get Americans to buy fewer foreign products, and close the trade deficit? This math says, the more of a trade deficit the U.S. has with another country, the higher that tariffs should be on that country’s products.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Take China for instance. Last year, Americans imported about $439 billion of products from China — chiefly electronics, clothing, and machinery — while exporting only $144 billion. According to this formula, a 67% tax on those Chinese products should correct this trade imbalance. (On Wednesday Trump announced that the actual tariff would only be half of that, or 34%.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s how Trump’s math says it would work: The 67% tax should raise the prices of Chinese products in the United States. And those higher prices should discourage Americans from buying Chinese products or products that contain Chinese components.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is contrary to Trump’s previous public statements, where he has variously denied that tariffs would raise prices or has said that he “couldn’t care less.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But according to Trump’s math, the tariffs are \u003cem>supposed\u003c/em> to raise prices. Because those higher prices are the driving force that will close the trade deficit.[aside postID=forum_2010101909269 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2025/03/Edward-Fishman-1020x638.png']There are a couple of major assumptions in Trump’s math. The biggest assumption involves how much the tariffs would cause prices to go up. Here, the administration makes an eyebrow-raising admission: It guesses that for every 10% hike in tariffs, there will be a 2.5% increase in prices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Translation: Trump’s economists think that about a quarter of his tariffs will be passed onto American consumers in the form of higher prices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Going back to the China example, here’s how it would all play out. According to Trump’s math, the 67% tariff on Chinese products would cause prices of those products to go up by 16.75%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By coincidence, the administration also assumes that for every 10% increase in the price of foreign products, there will be a 40% decrease in how much Americans buy. (This is on the higher but still reasonable end of what mainstream economists believe.) So, faced with 16.75% higher prices, Trump expects Americans to decrease their purchases by four times that amount. Which brings us back to 67%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, a 67% tariff on Chinese products would reduce demand for Chinese products by … also 67%. So if Americans are currently buying $439 billion worth of Chinese products each year, Trump’s economists expect that the new tariffs will reduce that spending by $294 billion — which would close the trade deficit. At least in theory.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What’s wrong with Trump’s tariff math?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Certainly these new tariffs are not “reciprocal” tariffs. But the math behind them is not wholly invented or nonsensical, despite what some \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1907660479800991802\">online\u003c/a> have claimed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, for possibly the first time ever, the administration is explicitly acknowledging some of the basic economic logic of tariffs. Tariffs do raise prices. And higher prices do cause people to buy less stuff. And if Americans buy less foreign stuff, then America’s trade deficit with other countries will narrow.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But that’s not to say that any of Trump’s tariff calculations arrive at the right answer. For one, these are very rough, back-of-the-envelope calculations. As laid out, this formula treats every trading partner, every good and every industry the same. Bananas, oil, clothing, computers or cars — it doesn’t matter what a country sends to the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More importantly, the formula hinges on a big assumption about how much tariffs will raise prices. Trump’s math assumes that only a quarter of the tariffs would be passed onto American consumers in the form of higher prices. But economists who have studied Trump’s tariffs in 2018 — on steel and aluminum and various products from China — calculate that \u003ca href=\"https://www.princeton.edu/~reddings/pubpapers/JEP-tariffs-2019.pdf\">almost all of those tariffs (PDF)\u003c/a> ended up being passed onto Americans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Aside from that, Trump’s tariff math also ignores the broader economic consequences of these sweeping new tariffs. They will have an effect on the overall American economy. They will influence exchange rates. And they will likely provoke retaliatory tariffs from other countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, will Trump’s new tariffs actually close the trade deficit? Maybe, maybe not. But finally, at least, the administration has shown its work. And according to their calculations, raising prices and closing the trade deficit is what these tariffs are designed to do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Here's how the Trump administration calculated the 'Liberation Day' tariffs that were announced on Wednesday, and how much we could expect these tariffs to raise prices.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>When \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2025/04/02/nx-s1-5345802/trump-tariffs-liberation-day\">President Trump announced his latest tariffs\u003c/a> on Wednesday, he also ignited an economic mystery. Just where in the world did those numbers come from?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Holding up a sign on the White House lawn, Trump pointed to a new, 34% tax on imports from China; for the EU, a tax of 20%. Vietnam got 46%; India, 26%. Nigeria? Just 15 percent. Trump claimed that these “reciprocal” tariffs reflect how other countries already tax American products. “That means they do it to us and we do it to them,” he said. “Very simple.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That is not true. These are not reciprocal tariffs. They do not correspond to the tariff rates in other countries. The truth behind where these tariffs came from is far more interesting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Wednesday night, the administration revealed how they calculated the new tariffs, which are the highest taxes on foreign products that America has seen in generations. (For a sense of that era, listen to the \u003ca href=\"https://open.spotify.com/episode/1Xu7WphFFwtQpWmnZ5dn4f?si=bftF4o2PQoaysSOZ21jFJw\">Planet Money episode on the Smoot-Hawley tariffs\u003c/a>.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Buried in that math, finally, is a straightforward answer to a question that Trump has long refused to straightforwardly answer: How much will his tariffs raise prices?\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Diving deep into Trump’s tariff math\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>This is \u003ca href=\"https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations\">the Trump administration’s tariff formula\u003c/a>, as revealed on Wednesday night by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative:\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12034435\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1024px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12034435\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"433\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2.jpg 1024w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2-800x338.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2-1020x431.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/npr.brightspotcdn-1-copy-2-160x68.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Trump administration’s tariff formula. \u003ccite>(Screenshot from ustr.gov)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Behind these Greek letters there’s a blunt but understandable approach. Essentially, the equation is trying to answer the question: How high should we set tariffs in order to get Americans to buy fewer foreign products, and close the trade deficit? This math says, the more of a trade deficit the U.S. has with another country, the higher that tariffs should be on that country’s products.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Take China for instance. Last year, Americans imported about $439 billion of products from China — chiefly electronics, clothing, and machinery — while exporting only $144 billion. According to this formula, a 67% tax on those Chinese products should correct this trade imbalance. (On Wednesday Trump announced that the actual tariff would only be half of that, or 34%.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s how Trump’s math says it would work: The 67% tax should raise the prices of Chinese products in the United States. And those higher prices should discourage Americans from buying Chinese products or products that contain Chinese components.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is contrary to Trump’s previous public statements, where he has variously denied that tariffs would raise prices or has said that he “couldn’t care less.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But according to Trump’s math, the tariffs are \u003cem>supposed\u003c/em> to raise prices. Because those higher prices are the driving force that will close the trade deficit.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>There are a couple of major assumptions in Trump’s math. The biggest assumption involves how much the tariffs would cause prices to go up. Here, the administration makes an eyebrow-raising admission: It guesses that for every 10% hike in tariffs, there will be a 2.5% increase in prices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Translation: Trump’s economists think that about a quarter of his tariffs will be passed onto American consumers in the form of higher prices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Going back to the China example, here’s how it would all play out. According to Trump’s math, the 67% tariff on Chinese products would cause prices of those products to go up by 16.75%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By coincidence, the administration also assumes that for every 10% increase in the price of foreign products, there will be a 40% decrease in how much Americans buy. (This is on the higher but still reasonable end of what mainstream economists believe.) So, faced with 16.75% higher prices, Trump expects Americans to decrease their purchases by four times that amount. Which brings us back to 67%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, a 67% tariff on Chinese products would reduce demand for Chinese products by … also 67%. So if Americans are currently buying $439 billion worth of Chinese products each year, Trump’s economists expect that the new tariffs will reduce that spending by $294 billion — which would close the trade deficit. At least in theory.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What’s wrong with Trump’s tariff math?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Certainly these new tariffs are not “reciprocal” tariffs. But the math behind them is not wholly invented or nonsensical, despite what some \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1907660479800991802\">online\u003c/a> have claimed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, for possibly the first time ever, the administration is explicitly acknowledging some of the basic economic logic of tariffs. Tariffs do raise prices. And higher prices do cause people to buy less stuff. And if Americans buy less foreign stuff, then America’s trade deficit with other countries will narrow.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But that’s not to say that any of Trump’s tariff calculations arrive at the right answer. For one, these are very rough, back-of-the-envelope calculations. As laid out, this formula treats every trading partner, every good and every industry the same. Bananas, oil, clothing, computers or cars — it doesn’t matter what a country sends to the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More importantly, the formula hinges on a big assumption about how much tariffs will raise prices. Trump’s math assumes that only a quarter of the tariffs would be passed onto American consumers in the form of higher prices. But economists who have studied Trump’s tariffs in 2018 — on steel and aluminum and various products from China — calculate that \u003ca href=\"https://www.princeton.edu/~reddings/pubpapers/JEP-tariffs-2019.pdf\">almost all of those tariffs (PDF)\u003c/a> ended up being passed onto Americans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Aside from that, Trump’s tariff math also ignores the broader economic consequences of these sweeping new tariffs. They will have an effect on the overall American economy. They will influence exchange rates. And they will likely provoke retaliatory tariffs from other countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, will Trump’s new tariffs actually close the trade deficit? Maybe, maybe not. But finally, at least, the administration has shown its work. And according to their calculations, raising prices and closing the trade deficit is what these tariffs are designed to do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Tercer cheque de estímulo: Cómo reclamar este dinero si nunca lo recibió en 2021",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12030754/tax-day-2025-is-your-last-chance-to-claim-a-3rd-stimulus-check\">Read in English\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Para algunos de nosotros, el 2021 se siente como si fuera ayer, en lugar de hace cuatro años. En el segundo año de la pandemia, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11856006/cuando-y-donde-puede-vacunarse-contra-covid-19-en-el-area-de-la-bahia-aqui-tiene-las-respuestas\">millones de personas recibieron su vacuna contra el COVID-19\u003c/a> y el gobierno federal aprobó el \u003ca href=\"https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/blog/2021/03/10/the-american-rescue-plan-passed-now-what/\">Plan de Rescate Estadounidense\u003c/a>, que incluía una \u003ca href=\"https://www.pandemicoversight.gov/data-interactive-tools/data-stories/update-three-rounds-stimulus-checks-see-how-many-went-out-and\">tercera ronda de cheques de estímulo\u003c/a>: mil 400 dólares para la mayoría de los contribuyentes en EE. UU., junto con mil 400 dólares adicionales para cada uno de sus dependientes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El gobierno federal comenzó a distribuir estos cheques de estímulo en marzo de 2021, y para recibir estos fondos, un hogar tendría que haber presentado su declaración de impuestos en 2020 o 2019. Esto se debe a que el gobierno federal analizó las declaraciones de impuestos para determinar cuántas personas vivían en ese hogar y, por lo tanto, cuál debería ser el monto de su pago. Por ejemplo, si usted y su cónyuge presentaron una declaración conjunta e incluyeron a dos hijos como dependientes, su hogar habría recibido un cheque de estímulo de 5 mil 600 dólares (lo que equivale a mil 400 dólares multiplicado por cuatro) en 2021.\u003cbr>\n[ad fullwidth]\u003cbr>\nSi un hogar no presentó su declaración de impuestos de 2019 o 2020 en el momento en que el Servicio de Rentas Internas (o IRS por sus siglas en inglés) estaba emitiendo los cheques de estímulo, no recibió ese dinero. Sin embargo, el IRS creó el \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/coronavirus/economic-impact-payments\">Crédito de recuperación de reembolso\u003c/a> para que esas mismas personas puedan reclamar estos fondos, con el requisito siendo que presenten sus impuestos de 2021 si aún no lo habían hecho.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sin embargo, la fecha límite para presentar los impuestos de 2021 y reclamar este dinero del Crédito de Recuperación de Descuento se acerca rápidamente: el 15 de abril. El IRS estima que, a partir del 11 de marzo, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/newsroom/taxpayers-should-act-now-to-claim-more-than-1-billion-in-refunds-for-tax-year-2021-with-the-april-15-deadline-fast-approaching\">más de 116 mil californianos tienen reembolsos no reclamados correspondientes al año tributario 2021\u003c/a>, lo que representa millones de dólares en fondos no reclamados.[aside label='Más en español' tag='kqed-en-espanol']“Hemos hablado con muchas personas que no han presentado la declaración y no sabían que esto seguía siendo una opción”, dijo Amy Spivey, profesora de la Facultad de Derecho en la Universidad de California en San Francisco. “Así que si no ha presentado la declaración de 2021 y aún no ha recibido los mil 400 dólares, presente la declaración antes del 15 de abril para conservar su derecho a recibir ese reembolso”.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Siga leyendo para saber qué debe hacer para presentar su declaración de impuestos de 2021 si aún no lo ha hecho y cómo podría ayudarle a obtener el Crédito de Recuperación de Reembolso. Tenga en cuenta que la situación fiscal de cada persona es diferente y que siempre es una buena idea buscar asesoramiento profesional si tiene dudas. \u003ca href=\"https://uwba.org/what-we-do/free-tax-help/es/\">Vea dónde encontrar servicios de preparación de impuestos gratuitos o de bajo costo cerca de usted\u003c/a> (enlace sólo en inglés).\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>¿Cómo es posible que un crédito tributario de 2021 siga disponible en 2025?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>La fecha límite original para presentar la declaración de impuestos de 2021 fue el 18 de abril de 2022. Sin embargo, todavía existe una prórroga para quienes aún no han cumplido con esta responsabilidad de cada contribuyente.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Esta última prórroga es el 15 de abril, 2025. Esto es posible porque las normas del IRS dan a los contribuyentes tres años para presentar sus impuestos a partir de la fecha de vencimiento original para reclamar cualquier reembolso o crédito de ese año.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ese período de prórroga de tres años para presentar la declaración “expira el 15 de abril de 2025”, dijo Spivey. “Así que, siempre que se haya enviado por correo antes del 15 de abril de 2025 … habrá conservado su derecho a reclamar ese crédito”.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>¿Quién califica para el Crédito de recuperación de reembolso en 2025?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Según el IRS, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/newsroom/2021-recovery-rebate-credit-topic-c-eligibility-for-claiming-a-recovery-rebate-credit-on-a-2021-tax-return\">usted es elegible para el Crédito de recuperación de reembolso si\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Usted era ciudadano estadounidense o extranjero residente en EE. UU. durante el año fiscal 2021\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Usted no fue reclamado como dependiente de otro contribuyente en 2021\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Tiene un número de Seguro Social (o SSN por sus siglas en inglés) válido o presenta la declaración de forma conjunta con un cónyuge que lo tiene, o declara a un dependiente que tiene un SSN válido o un número de identificación fiscal de adopción.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Incluso si no tuvo ingresos en 2021 o recibió prestaciones por desempleo durante la mayor parte de ese año, puede seguir teniendo derecho a este crédito, pero tendrá que presentar la declaración de impuestos de 2021.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sin embargo, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/newsroom/2021-recovery-rebate-credit-topic-c-eligibility-for-claiming-a-recovery-rebate-credit-on-a-2021-tax-return\">hay algunas cosas que le descalificarían para recibir el crédito\u003c/a>, entre ellas:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>Residencia\u003c/strong>: Actualmente es un extranjero no residente sin un SSN (y presenta sus impuestos utilizando un Número de Identificación Personal del Contribuyente, o ITIN)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>Límites de ingresos\u003c/strong>: si es soltero y su ingreso bruto ajustado (o AGI por sus siglas en inglés) en 2021 fue superior a 80 mil dólares, no recibirá el crédito. El límite de AGI para las parejas casadas que presentan una declaración conjunta es de 160 mil dólares, y para aquellos que presentan una declaración como cabeza de familia, el limite es de 112 quinientos dólares.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12033936\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1020px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12033936\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/1040-TAX-FORM.jpg\" alt=\"Un formulario para presentar impuestos 1040 sobre una mesa, y a lado un bolígrafo.\" width=\"1020\" height=\"681\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/1040-TAX-FORM.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/1040-TAX-FORM-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/1040-TAX-FORM-160x107.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ese período de prórroga de tres años para presentar la declaración vence el 15 de abril de 2025. \u003ccite>(Nora Carol Photography/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>¿Tendré que pagar una multa si presento mis impuestos de 2021 en 2025?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Eso depende. El IRS solo le cobrará una multa por presentar tarde si sus declaraciones de 2021 muestran que les debe dinero.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pero si le deben un reembolso, dijo Spivey de UC Law, “no se le cobra una multa por la presentación tardía de las declaraciones de impuestos”.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Por ejemplo, si no debe ningún impuesto, simplemente está reclamando su cheque de estímulo y va a recibir un reembolso de mil 400 dólares, entonces no habría ninguna multa asociada a eso”, añadió.[aside label='Guías en inglés' tag='audience-news']Sin embargo, supongamos que sí debe dinero al IRS en sus impuestos. Por ejemplo, supongamos que usted trabajó en 2021 y pidió a su empleador que no dedujera los impuestos federales de su nómina mensual. Debido a esta decisión, se espera que usted pague un porcentaje de esos ingresos de 2021 al presentar sus impuestos de ese año, y si usted está presentando esos impuestos ahora, todavía le debe al IRS ese porcentaje en 2025.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“[Una multa por presentar tarde] sería un porcentaje de cuánto se debía en la parte inferior de su reembolso”, dijo Spivey. Pero ella dijo que “todavía podría valer la pena” presentar su declaración de impuestos de 2021 antes del 15 de abril, incluso si debe dinero “porque todavía obtendrá crédito por esos mil 400 dólares … para reducir cuánto debe en esa declaración de impuestos.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Otra cosa a tener en cuenta: el IRS advierte que los contribuyentes que soliciten su devolución de impuestos de 2021 podrían no recibirla \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/newsroom/taxpayers-should-act-now-to-claim-more-than-1-billion-in-refunds-for-tax-year-2021-with-the-april-15-deadline-fast-approaching\">si aún no han presentado sus declaraciones de impuestos de 2022 y 2023\u003c/a>. Pero si hacer trámites con el IRS parece difícil o intimidante, Spivey recuerda a la gente que no está sola en este proceso, y que si el papeleo le resulta complicado o le han denegado el Crédito de recuperación de reembolso incluso después de presentar sus impuestos de 2021, \u003ca href=\"https://uwba.org/what-we-do/free-tax-help/es/\">puede ponerse en contacto con un centro de asesoramiento fiscal gratuito\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Si hay algún problema”, dijo, “una clínica de contribuyentes de bajos ingresos podría ayudarle a obtener esos fondos”.\u003c/p>\n\u003chr>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Este artículo fue traducido por la periodista \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/mpena/\">María Peña\u003c/a> y esa traducción fue editada por el periodista \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/ccabreralomeli\">Carlos Cabrera-Lomelí\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12030754/tax-day-2025-is-your-last-chance-to-claim-a-3rd-stimulus-check\">Read in English\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Para algunos de nosotros, el 2021 se siente como si fuera ayer, en lugar de hace cuatro años. En el segundo año de la pandemia, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11856006/cuando-y-donde-puede-vacunarse-contra-covid-19-en-el-area-de-la-bahia-aqui-tiene-las-respuestas\">millones de personas recibieron su vacuna contra el COVID-19\u003c/a> y el gobierno federal aprobó el \u003ca href=\"https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/blog/2021/03/10/the-american-rescue-plan-passed-now-what/\">Plan de Rescate Estadounidense\u003c/a>, que incluía una \u003ca href=\"https://www.pandemicoversight.gov/data-interactive-tools/data-stories/update-three-rounds-stimulus-checks-see-how-many-went-out-and\">tercera ronda de cheques de estímulo\u003c/a>: mil 400 dólares para la mayoría de los contribuyentes en EE. UU., junto con mil 400 dólares adicionales para cada uno de sus dependientes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El gobierno federal comenzó a distribuir estos cheques de estímulo en marzo de 2021, y para recibir estos fondos, un hogar tendría que haber presentado su declaración de impuestos en 2020 o 2019. Esto se debe a que el gobierno federal analizó las declaraciones de impuestos para determinar cuántas personas vivían en ese hogar y, por lo tanto, cuál debería ser el monto de su pago. Por ejemplo, si usted y su cónyuge presentaron una declaración conjunta e incluyeron a dos hijos como dependientes, su hogar habría recibido un cheque de estímulo de 5 mil 600 dólares (lo que equivale a mil 400 dólares multiplicado por cuatro) en 2021.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cbr>\nSi un hogar no presentó su declaración de impuestos de 2019 o 2020 en el momento en que el Servicio de Rentas Internas (o IRS por sus siglas en inglés) estaba emitiendo los cheques de estímulo, no recibió ese dinero. Sin embargo, el IRS creó el \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/coronavirus/economic-impact-payments\">Crédito de recuperación de reembolso\u003c/a> para que esas mismas personas puedan reclamar estos fondos, con el requisito siendo que presenten sus impuestos de 2021 si aún no lo habían hecho.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sin embargo, la fecha límite para presentar los impuestos de 2021 y reclamar este dinero del Crédito de Recuperación de Descuento se acerca rápidamente: el 15 de abril. El IRS estima que, a partir del 11 de marzo, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/newsroom/taxpayers-should-act-now-to-claim-more-than-1-billion-in-refunds-for-tax-year-2021-with-the-april-15-deadline-fast-approaching\">más de 116 mil californianos tienen reembolsos no reclamados correspondientes al año tributario 2021\u003c/a>, lo que representa millones de dólares en fondos no reclamados.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“Hemos hablado con muchas personas que no han presentado la declaración y no sabían que esto seguía siendo una opción”, dijo Amy Spivey, profesora de la Facultad de Derecho en la Universidad de California en San Francisco. “Así que si no ha presentado la declaración de 2021 y aún no ha recibido los mil 400 dólares, presente la declaración antes del 15 de abril para conservar su derecho a recibir ese reembolso”.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Siga leyendo para saber qué debe hacer para presentar su declaración de impuestos de 2021 si aún no lo ha hecho y cómo podría ayudarle a obtener el Crédito de Recuperación de Reembolso. Tenga en cuenta que la situación fiscal de cada persona es diferente y que siempre es una buena idea buscar asesoramiento profesional si tiene dudas. \u003ca href=\"https://uwba.org/what-we-do/free-tax-help/es/\">Vea dónde encontrar servicios de preparación de impuestos gratuitos o de bajo costo cerca de usted\u003c/a> (enlace sólo en inglés).\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>¿Cómo es posible que un crédito tributario de 2021 siga disponible en 2025?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>La fecha límite original para presentar la declaración de impuestos de 2021 fue el 18 de abril de 2022. Sin embargo, todavía existe una prórroga para quienes aún no han cumplido con esta responsabilidad de cada contribuyente.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Esta última prórroga es el 15 de abril, 2025. Esto es posible porque las normas del IRS dan a los contribuyentes tres años para presentar sus impuestos a partir de la fecha de vencimiento original para reclamar cualquier reembolso o crédito de ese año.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ese período de prórroga de tres años para presentar la declaración “expira el 15 de abril de 2025”, dijo Spivey. “Así que, siempre que se haya enviado por correo antes del 15 de abril de 2025 … habrá conservado su derecho a reclamar ese crédito”.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>¿Quién califica para el Crédito de recuperación de reembolso en 2025?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Según el IRS, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/newsroom/2021-recovery-rebate-credit-topic-c-eligibility-for-claiming-a-recovery-rebate-credit-on-a-2021-tax-return\">usted es elegible para el Crédito de recuperación de reembolso si\u003c/a>:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Usted era ciudadano estadounidense o extranjero residente en EE. UU. durante el año fiscal 2021\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Usted no fue reclamado como dependiente de otro contribuyente en 2021\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Tiene un número de Seguro Social (o SSN por sus siglas en inglés) válido o presenta la declaración de forma conjunta con un cónyuge que lo tiene, o declara a un dependiente que tiene un SSN válido o un número de identificación fiscal de adopción.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Incluso si no tuvo ingresos en 2021 o recibió prestaciones por desempleo durante la mayor parte de ese año, puede seguir teniendo derecho a este crédito, pero tendrá que presentar la declaración de impuestos de 2021.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sin embargo, \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/newsroom/2021-recovery-rebate-credit-topic-c-eligibility-for-claiming-a-recovery-rebate-credit-on-a-2021-tax-return\">hay algunas cosas que le descalificarían para recibir el crédito\u003c/a>, entre ellas:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>Residencia\u003c/strong>: Actualmente es un extranjero no residente sin un SSN (y presenta sus impuestos utilizando un Número de Identificación Personal del Contribuyente, o ITIN)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>Límites de ingresos\u003c/strong>: si es soltero y su ingreso bruto ajustado (o AGI por sus siglas en inglés) en 2021 fue superior a 80 mil dólares, no recibirá el crédito. El límite de AGI para las parejas casadas que presentan una declaración conjunta es de 160 mil dólares, y para aquellos que presentan una declaración como cabeza de familia, el limite es de 112 quinientos dólares.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12033936\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1020px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12033936\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/1040-TAX-FORM.jpg\" alt=\"Un formulario para presentar impuestos 1040 sobre una mesa, y a lado un bolígrafo.\" width=\"1020\" height=\"681\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/1040-TAX-FORM.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/1040-TAX-FORM-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/03/1040-TAX-FORM-160x107.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ese período de prórroga de tres años para presentar la declaración vence el 15 de abril de 2025. \u003ccite>(Nora Carol Photography/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>¿Tendré que pagar una multa si presento mis impuestos de 2021 en 2025?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Eso depende. El IRS solo le cobrará una multa por presentar tarde si sus declaraciones de 2021 muestran que les debe dinero.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pero si le deben un reembolso, dijo Spivey de UC Law, “no se le cobra una multa por la presentación tardía de las declaraciones de impuestos”.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Por ejemplo, si no debe ningún impuesto, simplemente está reclamando su cheque de estímulo y va a recibir un reembolso de mil 400 dólares, entonces no habría ninguna multa asociada a eso”, añadió.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Sin embargo, supongamos que sí debe dinero al IRS en sus impuestos. Por ejemplo, supongamos que usted trabajó en 2021 y pidió a su empleador que no dedujera los impuestos federales de su nómina mensual. Debido a esta decisión, se espera que usted pague un porcentaje de esos ingresos de 2021 al presentar sus impuestos de ese año, y si usted está presentando esos impuestos ahora, todavía le debe al IRS ese porcentaje en 2025.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“[Una multa por presentar tarde] sería un porcentaje de cuánto se debía en la parte inferior de su reembolso”, dijo Spivey. Pero ella dijo que “todavía podría valer la pena” presentar su declaración de impuestos de 2021 antes del 15 de abril, incluso si debe dinero “porque todavía obtendrá crédito por esos mil 400 dólares … para reducir cuánto debe en esa declaración de impuestos.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Otra cosa a tener en cuenta: el IRS advierte que los contribuyentes que soliciten su devolución de impuestos de 2021 podrían no recibirla \u003ca href=\"https://www.irs.gov/es/newsroom/taxpayers-should-act-now-to-claim-more-than-1-billion-in-refunds-for-tax-year-2021-with-the-april-15-deadline-fast-approaching\">si aún no han presentado sus declaraciones de impuestos de 2022 y 2023\u003c/a>. Pero si hacer trámites con el IRS parece difícil o intimidante, Spivey recuerda a la gente que no está sola en este proceso, y que si el papeleo le resulta complicado o le han denegado el Crédito de recuperación de reembolso incluso después de presentar sus impuestos de 2021, \u003ca href=\"https://uwba.org/what-we-do/free-tax-help/es/\">puede ponerse en contacto con un centro de asesoramiento fiscal gratuito\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Si hay algún problema”, dijo, “una clínica de contribuyentes de bajos ingresos podría ayudarle a obtener esos fondos”.\u003c/p>\n\u003chr>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Este artículo fue traducido por la periodista \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/mpena/\">María Peña\u003c/a> y esa traducción fue editada por el periodista \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/ccabreralomeli\">Carlos Cabrera-Lomelí\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"info": "What kind of no sabo word is Hyphenación? For us, it’s about living within a hyphenation. Like being a third-gen Mexican-American from the Texas border now living that Bay Area Chicano life. Like Xorje! Each week we bring together a couple of hyphenated Latinos to talk all about personal life choices: family, careers, relationships, belonging … everything is on the table. ",
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"info": "The Political Mind of Jerry Brown brings listeners the wisdom of the former Governor, Mayor, and presidential candidate. Scott Shafer interviewed Brown for more than 40 hours, covering the former governor's life and half-century in the political game – and Brown has some lessons he'd like to share. ",
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"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
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"masters-of-scale": {
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},
"mindshift": {
"id": "mindshift",
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"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
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"order": 12
},
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5",
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"morning-edition": {
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"info": "\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. Hosts Steve Inskeep, David Greene and Rachel Martin bring you the latest breaking news and features to prepare you for the day.",
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"onourwatch": {
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"tagline": "Deeply-reported investigative journalism",
"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
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"on-the-media": {
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"title": "On The Media",
"info": "Our weekly podcast explores how the media 'sausage' is made, casts an incisive eye on fluctuations in the marketplace of ideas, and examines threats to the freedom of information and expression in America and abroad. For one hour a week, the show tries to lift the veil from the process of \"making media,\" especially news media, because it's through that lens that we see the world and the world sees us",
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"link": "/radio/program/on-the-media",
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},
"pbs-newshour": {
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},
"perspectives": {
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"order": 14
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"planet-money": {
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"info": "The economy explained. Imagine you could call up a friend and say, Meet me at the bar and tell me what's going on with the economy. Now imagine that's actually a fun evening.",
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"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/planetmoney.jpg",
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"link": "/radio/program/planet-money",
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"politicalbreakdown": {
"id": "politicalbreakdown",
"title": "Political Breakdown",
"tagline": "Politics from a personal perspective",
"info": "Political Breakdown is a new series that explores the political intersection of California and the nation. Each week hosts Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos are joined with a new special guest to unpack politics -- with personality — and offer an insider’s glimpse at how politics happens.",
"airtime": "THU 6:30pm-7pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Political-Breakdown-2024-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"order": 5
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"amazon": "https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/e0c2d153-ad36-4c8d-901d-f1da6a724824/political-breakdown",
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"possible": {
"id": "possible",
"title": "Possible",
"info": "Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.",
"airtime": "SUN 2pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.possible.fm/",
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"source": "Possible"
},
"link": "/radio/program/possible",
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"spotify": "https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"
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},
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