The Future for California High-Speed Rail Just Got Even More Uncertain

This week’s announcement that the Trump administration is reviewing more than $4 billion in federal funding committed to California’s high-speed rail system adds a new layer of uncertainty to a long-delayed project already surrounded by questions about its future.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced the review on Thursday in Los Angeles, saying the administration intends to determine whether California is living up to the letter of its federal funding agreements.

“We can’t just say we’re going to give money and then not hold states accountable to how they spend that money,” Duffy said. “We in the Trump administration are going to take a look at whether this project is worthy of continual investment.”

In recent months, the inspector general for the California High-Speed Rail Authority has expressed doubts both about whether the agency can line up all the funding needed to build the system’s initial 171-mile segment from Merced to Bakersfield and whether it can meet its timetable for launching service by 2033.

The current cost estimate for the Merced-Bakersfield link is between $32 billion and $35 billion. Even with $4.3 billion in grants promised by the Biden administration that are now under review, the state would need to find as much as $6.5 billion more to finish the Central Valley segment.

That section is just the first piece of a statewide network stretching from San Francisco to Orange County that was envisioned in a 2008 ballot measure that provided $10 billion in bond funding. The measure outlined a system that would be completed by 2020 and carried an estimated price tag of as much as $40 billion. Though the full route has now received all its environmental approvals, there’s no current schedule for completing it, and the latest cost estimates for the full north-south network range from $89 billion to $128 billion.

Republican lawmakers, who have been hostile to the project since its inception three decades ago, argue that the price of the first segment is too high for a service with an unproven market and have introduced new legislation to curtail further funding.

In Congress, Rep. Kevin Kiley (R–Rocklin) has put forward a bill that would ban future federal aid for the rail line.

AB 267, by Assemblymember Alexandra Macedo (R–Tulare), would cancel the state’s $1 billion annual appropriation for high-speed rail for the next two years. That funding, which comes from California’s cap-and-trade program, would be shifted to new water projects and wildfire mitigation.

Democratic legislators, including state Sen. Scott Wiener (D–San Francisco), say the project’s expected environmental benefits and the need to modernize California’s passenger rail network make it imperative for the state to move ahead with the project.

Wiener has introduced SB 445, a bill that would speed up rail construction by requiring local governments and utilities to hasten permit approvals and power and water line relocations.

Appearing at L.A.’s Union Station, Duffy’s remarks on Thursday highlighted both the partisan nature of the review and his own personal distaste for the state’s high-speed rail effort.

“President Trump has thought about this project. He’s talked about the project,” Duffy said. “And I think he was very kind when he said this project has been mismanaged. I would agree it has been more than likely mismanaged. And the president has called for an investigation.”

Several dozen protesters who had turned out for Duffy’s press conference jeered his remarks, prompting him to snap: “If you want to go protest somewhere; if you want to shout at someone; go to the governor’s mansion. Go talk to Democrats in the Legislature who have brought us this crappy project.”

In an interview with KQED on Thursday, Wiener blamed Republicans for the bullet train delays.

“The people who are most vocal in criticizing high-speed rail for delays and cost increases, the Republicans, are some of the very people who have caused those delays and cost increases,” he said.

Wiener said he was confident that spending by the California High-Speed Rail Authority will stand up to the new federal scrutiny.

“If this investigation is fair and objective, then it will show a project that is underway, that’s happening, and that has been slowed down by permit problems, and that needs to be sped up,” he said.

In a statement, the high-speed-rail agency said it has been subject to multiple federal and state audits and that “every dollar is accounted for.”

“We welcome this investigation and the opportunity to work with our federal partners,” the agency said.

Wiener and others mentioned the results of a recent Emerson College poll that asked 1,000 registered California voters whether the high-speed rail project “is a good use of state funds or a bad use of state funds.”

The poll reported that 54% had a favorable view. That’s in line with past survey findings and very close to the 52.6% “yes” vote attained by 2008’s Proposition 1A, which approved floating bonds to build the L.A.-San Francisco rail system.