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"content": "\u003cp>This week, California rolls out the heavy artillery in its attack on climate change with a program called “cap-and-trade.” It’s like a stock exchange for carbon emissions, where the state’s biggest polluters have to buy the right to emit greenhouse gases. It’s the most ambitious climate change policy in the country, but not everyone is happy with it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>So how does it work?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>(Check out the radio story above for an explanation involving poker chips, musical chairs and Monopoly money.) \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The first part is the cap. Until now, businesses haven’t had to worry about how much carbon they emit from burning fossil fuels. Now, there’s going to be a cap on total emissions. At first, they can emit about as much carbon as they have been. But then, the cap on emissions begins to come down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More than 300 businesses, from power companies and oil refiners, to glass makers and food processors, are required to participate in the cap-and-trade program.\u003cstrong>\u003cem> \u003c/em>\u003c/strong>The government could tell each company how much it’s allowed to pollute, or set a tax on carbon. But California’s doing it differently by creating a market. That’s where the “trade” part of cap and trade comes in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In order to keep up with the lowering emissions cap, businesses have three choices. The first is pretty straightforward: reduce emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The second option is to buy permits to pollute. The state will give companies allowances -- each allowance grants a company permission to emit one ton of carbon dioxide. Companies can buy and sell allowances on the carbon market.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And the third option is known as \"carbon offsets.\" Companies can essentially pay other organizations to reduce greenhouse gases, for instance, by protecting forests. Each offset counts toward the firm's compliance obligation, though companies are limited in how many offsets they can use.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"text-align: center\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-46942\" title=\"Merc-illustration\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/Merc-illustration2-560x360.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"560\" height=\"360\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>But \u003cem>will\u003c/em> it work?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California has been preparing for this moment for a long time. When Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed AB 32, the state’s landmark global warming bill in 2006, he set an ambitious goal: to cut California’s greenhouse gas emissions 30 percent by 2020. Cap-and-trade is supposed to help accomplish a big part of that goal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"We want to reduce the amount of pollution, but we want to do it in a way that isn’t too costly to the economy,\" says UC Berkeley economist and energy analyst Severin Borenstein at UC Berkeley. He says the market will create some flexibility for businesses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But some businesses aren't so sure about it.\u003cem>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"I am very very worried about this program,\"\u003cstrong>\u003cem>\u003c/em>\u003c/strong> says Dorothy Rothrock from the California Manufacturers and Technology Association, which represents about 700 companies. Her members are concerned that cap-and-trade will put them at a disadvantage to companies outside of the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And Rothrock says the costs will eventually be passed on to consumers. For instance, the price of gas may go up. \"It’s not like they’re suddenly gonna see a big bill in their mailbox the next day, but the costs will be coming and there won’t be a lot we can do to stop it,\" she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California has taken steps to minimize this impact. At first, nearly all of the allowances are free for businesses, and some of the proceeds from the carbon market will go to communities hardest hit by pollution. Regulators also argue that the gains in energy efficiency spurred by the program will outweigh any higher costs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And environmental advocates point out, if we don’t cut emissions now, the impacts of climate change will be even more expensive in the long run.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Emily Reyna with the Environmental Defense Fund says it’s important for California to take the lead.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"If it’s done right here in California, which I believe it will be, then it can be a real model for the rest of the country, the rest of the world,\" she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Wednesday, all eyes will be on California, when the state's carbon market opens for the first time.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"disqusTitle": "Cap-and-Trade: The Glossary",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/09/cap-and-trade-the-glossary/heat20120904-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46926\">\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-46926\" title=\"heat20120904\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/heat201209041-252x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"176\" height=\"177\">\u003c/a>You can’t navigate the new world of carbon trading unless you know the lingo. Here are some key terms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>AB 32\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ab32/ab32.htm\">Global Warming Solutions Act\u003c/a>, passed by the California legislature and signed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, is the authorizing legislation for cap and trade. It seeks to reduce total carbon emissions in the state to 1990 levels, by 2020. That's about 30% below where emissions would likely be absent substantial reduction efforts. A separate executive order requires a further 80% reduction by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Additionality\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe principle, often applied to carbon offsets, that a project should only be able to earn credits if the greenhouse gas emission reductions produced by the project exceed what would have happened in the absence of the carbon credit component. \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Allocation\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nUnder an emissions trading scheme, permits to emit can initially either be purchased by emitters or given to them for free. In California's program, 90% will be given away initially. The rest will be sold at auction in an initial market offering. \u003ca href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate Energy and Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Allowance\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nLegally defined unit that entitles the holder to emit one metric ton of CO2-equivalent or another quantity of greenhouses gases. Also known as emission allowance or emission permit. \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Atmosphere\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth. The dry atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1% volume mixing ratio) and oxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), together with a number of trace gases, such as argon (0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium, radiatively active greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035% volume mixing ratio) and ozone. In addition the atmosphere contains water vapor, whose amount is highly variable but typically 1% volume mixing ratio. The atmosphere also contains clouds and aerosols (particles). \u003ca href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Auction\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCommon term used for the sale of allowances, as opposed to allocating them for free. California officials scheduled their first official auction for November 14, 2012. \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Base Year\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nTargets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are often defined in relation to a base year. 1990 is the base year in California's program, as well as for most nations in the Kyoto Protocol. \u003ca href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions) \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California Air Resources Board (ARB or CARB)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/homepage.htm\">regulatory agency\u003c/a> charged with implementation of AB 32 and managing California’s cap-and-trade program.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://www.calepa.ca.gov/\">Parent agency\u003c/a> of the Air Resources Board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cap-and-Trade\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA flexible environmental regulation mechanism that sets an overall limit on the emission of a certain pollutant, but allows companies that can easily reduce emissions to sell credits to other companies for which such reduction would be difficult. The cap ensures that emissions will not exceed a desired amount. California’s program rolls out in two phases: power plants and large industrial facilities in 2013, expanding to distributors of oil, natural gas and transportation fuels in 2015. \u003ca href=\"http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/envecon/gloss.php\">(Source: CSA)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Carbon Dioxide (CO2)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA naturally occurring gas, and also a by-product of burning fossil fuels and biomass, as well as land-use changes and other industrial processes. It is the principal human-caused greenhouse gas that affects the Earth's radiative balance, and the reference gas against which other greenhouse gases are measured and therefore has a Global Warming Potential of 1. \u003ca title=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nMeasurement unit used to indicate the global warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide is the reference gas against which other greenhouse gases are measured. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Carbon Footprint\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe total amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere each year by a person, family, building, organization or company. A person's carbon footprint includes greenhouse gas emissions from fuel that an individual burns directly, such as by heating a home or riding in a car. It also includes greenhouse gases that come from producing the goods or services that the individual uses, including emissions from power plants that make electricity, factories that make products and landfills where trash gets sent. \u003ca title=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Climate Action Reserve (CAR)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nFormerly the California Climate Action Registry, a non-profit voluntary and compliance registry for offsets. \u003ca href=\"http://www.climateactionreserve.org/\">The Reserve\u003c/a> is focused on developing standardized greenhouse gas reduction protocols, tracking offsets through a public database and serving as a project registry for voluntary as well as offsets eligible for compliance under AB 32. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Compliance\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n1) The act, specific to cap-and-trade schemes, of surrendering the required amount of allowances, or some combination of allowances and offsets, to cover an entity’s emissions. 2) Achievement by an entity in meeting its quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments under the applicable law or treaty. \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Covered Entity\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAny organization subject to the cap & trade regulation. California’s program covers 360 businesses. The complete list is available as a PDF download from the CARB website.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Deforestation\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThose practices or processes that result in the conversion of forested lands for non-forest uses. Deforestation contributes to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations for two reasons: 1) the burning or decomposition of the wood releases carbon dioxide; and 2) trees that once removed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the process of photosynthesis are no longer present. \u003ca title=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Emissions Cap\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA mandated restraint in a scheduled timeframe that puts a “ceiling” on the total amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that can be released into the atmosphere. This can be measured as gross emissions or as net emissions (emissions minus gases that are sequestered). California's cap will increase in 2015, when its cap-and-trade program expands to include more sources, then will decline about 3% each year until 2020, when the cap is expected to be 15% below the 2012 level.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca title=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\" href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fluorinated Gases\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA group of greenhouse gases regulated under California’s cap-and-trade program. Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride are synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases that are emitted from a variety of industrial processes. Fluorinated gases are sometimes used as substitutes for stratospheric ozone-depleting substances (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons and halons). These gases are typically emitted in smaller quantities, but because they are potent greenhouse gases, they are sometimes referred to as High Global Warming Potential gases (\"High-GWP gases\").\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fossil Fuel\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA general term for organic materials formed from decayed plants and animals that have been converted to crude oil, coal, natural gas or heavy oils by exposure to heat and pressure in the earth's crust over hundreds of millions of years. \u003ca title=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Greenhouse Effect\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe insulating effect of atmospheric greenhouse gases (e.g., water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, etc.) that keeps the Earth's temperature about 60“F warmer than it would be otherwise. \u003ca href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Greenhouse Gas\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nGreenhouse gases (GHGs) are trace gases that control energy flows in the Earth's atmosphere by absorbing infrared radiation. Some GHGs occur naturally in the atmosphere, while others result from human activities. Those \u003ca href=\"http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases.html\">recognized by the U.S. EPA \u003c/a>include: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and \"fluorinated gases.\" CO2 is the most important GHG released by human activities. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Leakage\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nTerm applied to businesses that leave the state rather than submit to cap-and-trade regulation. Sometimes called \"carbon leakage\" because emissions of the relocated industry are no longer regulated by the home state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs.htm\">LCFS\u003c/a> requires fuel providers to ensure that the mix of fuel they sell in the market meets, on average, a declining target for greenhouse gas emissions measured in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per unit of fuel energy sold. California's LCFS mandates a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity of fuel production and use within California, by 2020. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Methane (CH4)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCH4 is among the greenhouse gases recognized by the U.S. EPA. Atmospheric CH4 is produced by natural processes but there are also substantial emissions from human activities such as landfills, livestock and livestock wastes, natural gas and petroleum systems, coal mines, rice fields and wastewater treatment. CH4 has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime of approximately 10 years, but its 100-year GWP is currently estimated to be approximately 23 times that of CO2. \u003ca title=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\" href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Nitrous Oxide (N2O)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nN2O is among the greenhouse gases recognized by the U.S. EPA. N2O is produced by natural processes but there are also substantial emissions from human activities such as agriculture and fossil fuel combustion. The atmospheric lifetime of N2O is approximately 100 years, and its 100-year GWP is currently estimated to be 296 times that of CO2. \u003ca title=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\" href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Offsets\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nEmission reduction credits from project-based activities that can be used to meet compliance or corporate objectives as a supplement or alternative to reducing one’s own emissions. In a cap-and-trade scheme, offsets may be used instead of allowances, sometimes up to a limit. California allows the use of offsets to satisfy up to 8% of a company's compliance requirement. Initially four types of offset programs were allowed: expansion of forests and urban forests, methane capture on farms and ranches and reduction of ozone-depleting substances. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Prop 23\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAn unsuccessful statewide ballot measure in 2011, largely financed by oil and gas interests, that sought to suspend California's regulations under AB 32.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA regional cap-and-trade system that currently includes Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont. The District of Columbia, Pennsylvania, the Eastern Canadian Provinces and New Brunswick are observers in the process. \u003ca href=\"http://www.rggi.org/\">RGGI\u003c/a> covers CO2 emissions from electric power plants in the region, and requires a 10% reduction in these emissions by 2018. The first three-year compliance period started in January 2009. In 2011, the states commenced a review process in order to determine whether to tighten the emissions cap so that emitters would be incentivized to reduce internal emissions further. The review process should be completed in 2013. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Vapor (H2O)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nWater vapor is the primary gas responsible for the greenhouse effect. It is believed that increases in temperature caused by anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, resulting in additional warming. \u003ca title=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\" href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Western Climate Initiative (WCI)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nRegional initiative launched in February 2007 by states and provinces, mostly along the western rim of the United States, Canada and Mexico. \u003ca href=\"http://www.westernclimateinitiative.org/\">WCI\u003c/a> is a collaboration of independent jurisdictions working together to identify, evaluate and implement emissions trading policies to tackle climate change at a regional level. Nominally, WCI partners are: California, Quebec, Manitoba, British Columbia and Ontario, but only California and Quebec have passed regulations which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source info: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/09/cap-and-trade-the-glossary/heat20120904-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46926\">\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-46926\" title=\"heat20120904\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/heat201209041-252x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"176\" height=\"177\">\u003c/a>You can’t navigate the new world of carbon trading unless you know the lingo. Here are some key terms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>AB 32\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ab32/ab32.htm\">Global Warming Solutions Act\u003c/a>, passed by the California legislature and signed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, is the authorizing legislation for cap and trade. It seeks to reduce total carbon emissions in the state to 1990 levels, by 2020. That's about 30% below where emissions would likely be absent substantial reduction efforts. A separate executive order requires a further 80% reduction by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Additionality\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe principle, often applied to carbon offsets, that a project should only be able to earn credits if the greenhouse gas emission reductions produced by the project exceed what would have happened in the absence of the carbon credit component. \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Allocation\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nUnder an emissions trading scheme, permits to emit can initially either be purchased by emitters or given to them for free. In California's program, 90% will be given away initially. The rest will be sold at auction in an initial market offering. \u003ca href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate Energy and Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Allowance\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nLegally defined unit that entitles the holder to emit one metric ton of CO2-equivalent or another quantity of greenhouses gases. Also known as emission allowance or emission permit. \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Atmosphere\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth. The dry atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1% volume mixing ratio) and oxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), together with a number of trace gases, such as argon (0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium, radiatively active greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035% volume mixing ratio) and ozone. In addition the atmosphere contains water vapor, whose amount is highly variable but typically 1% volume mixing ratio. The atmosphere also contains clouds and aerosols (particles). \u003ca href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Auction\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCommon term used for the sale of allowances, as opposed to allocating them for free. California officials scheduled their first official auction for November 14, 2012. \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Base Year\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nTargets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are often defined in relation to a base year. 1990 is the base year in California's program, as well as for most nations in the Kyoto Protocol. \u003ca href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions) \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California Air Resources Board (ARB or CARB)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/homepage.htm\">regulatory agency\u003c/a> charged with implementation of AB 32 and managing California’s cap-and-trade program.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://www.calepa.ca.gov/\">Parent agency\u003c/a> of the Air Resources Board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cap-and-Trade\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA flexible environmental regulation mechanism that sets an overall limit on the emission of a certain pollutant, but allows companies that can easily reduce emissions to sell credits to other companies for which such reduction would be difficult. The cap ensures that emissions will not exceed a desired amount. California’s program rolls out in two phases: power plants and large industrial facilities in 2013, expanding to distributors of oil, natural gas and transportation fuels in 2015. \u003ca href=\"http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/envecon/gloss.php\">(Source: CSA)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Carbon Dioxide (CO2)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA naturally occurring gas, and also a by-product of burning fossil fuels and biomass, as well as land-use changes and other industrial processes. It is the principal human-caused greenhouse gas that affects the Earth's radiative balance, and the reference gas against which other greenhouse gases are measured and therefore has a Global Warming Potential of 1. \u003ca title=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nMeasurement unit used to indicate the global warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide is the reference gas against which other greenhouse gases are measured. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Carbon Footprint\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe total amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere each year by a person, family, building, organization or company. A person's carbon footprint includes greenhouse gas emissions from fuel that an individual burns directly, such as by heating a home or riding in a car. It also includes greenhouse gases that come from producing the goods or services that the individual uses, including emissions from power plants that make electricity, factories that make products and landfills where trash gets sent. \u003ca title=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Climate Action Reserve (CAR)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nFormerly the California Climate Action Registry, a non-profit voluntary and compliance registry for offsets. \u003ca href=\"http://www.climateactionreserve.org/\">The Reserve\u003c/a> is focused on developing standardized greenhouse gas reduction protocols, tracking offsets through a public database and serving as a project registry for voluntary as well as offsets eligible for compliance under AB 32. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Compliance\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n1) The act, specific to cap-and-trade schemes, of surrendering the required amount of allowances, or some combination of allowances and offsets, to cover an entity’s emissions. 2) Achievement by an entity in meeting its quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments under the applicable law or treaty. \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Covered Entity\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAny organization subject to the cap & trade regulation. California’s program covers 360 businesses. The complete list is available as a PDF download from the CARB website.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Deforestation\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThose practices or processes that result in the conversion of forested lands for non-forest uses. Deforestation contributes to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations for two reasons: 1) the burning or decomposition of the wood releases carbon dioxide; and 2) trees that once removed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the process of photosynthesis are no longer present. \u003ca title=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Emissions Cap\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA mandated restraint in a scheduled timeframe that puts a “ceiling” on the total amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that can be released into the atmosphere. This can be measured as gross emissions or as net emissions (emissions minus gases that are sequestered). California's cap will increase in 2015, when its cap-and-trade program expands to include more sources, then will decline about 3% each year until 2020, when the cap is expected to be 15% below the 2012 level.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca title=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\" href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fluorinated Gases\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA group of greenhouse gases regulated under California’s cap-and-trade program. Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride are synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases that are emitted from a variety of industrial processes. Fluorinated gases are sometimes used as substitutes for stratospheric ozone-depleting substances (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons and halons). These gases are typically emitted in smaller quantities, but because they are potent greenhouse gases, they are sometimes referred to as High Global Warming Potential gases (\"High-GWP gases\").\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fossil Fuel\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA general term for organic materials formed from decayed plants and animals that have been converted to crude oil, coal, natural gas or heavy oils by exposure to heat and pressure in the earth's crust over hundreds of millions of years. \u003ca title=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\" href=\"http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html#B\">(Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Greenhouse Effect\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe insulating effect of atmospheric greenhouse gases (e.g., water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, etc.) that keeps the Earth's temperature about 60“F warmer than it would be otherwise. \u003ca href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Greenhouse Gas\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nGreenhouse gases (GHGs) are trace gases that control energy flows in the Earth's atmosphere by absorbing infrared radiation. Some GHGs occur naturally in the atmosphere, while others result from human activities. Those \u003ca href=\"http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases.html\">recognized by the U.S. EPA \u003c/a>include: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and \"fluorinated gases.\" CO2 is the most important GHG released by human activities. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Leakage\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nTerm applied to businesses that leave the state rather than submit to cap-and-trade regulation. Sometimes called \"carbon leakage\" because emissions of the relocated industry are no longer regulated by the home state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nThe \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs.htm\">LCFS\u003c/a> requires fuel providers to ensure that the mix of fuel they sell in the market meets, on average, a declining target for greenhouse gas emissions measured in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per unit of fuel energy sold. California's LCFS mandates a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity of fuel production and use within California, by 2020. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Methane (CH4)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCH4 is among the greenhouse gases recognized by the U.S. EPA. Atmospheric CH4 is produced by natural processes but there are also substantial emissions from human activities such as landfills, livestock and livestock wastes, natural gas and petroleum systems, coal mines, rice fields and wastewater treatment. CH4 has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime of approximately 10 years, but its 100-year GWP is currently estimated to be approximately 23 times that of CO2. \u003ca title=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\" href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Nitrous Oxide (N2O)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nN2O is among the greenhouse gases recognized by the U.S. EPA. N2O is produced by natural processes but there are also substantial emissions from human activities such as agriculture and fossil fuel combustion. The atmospheric lifetime of N2O is approximately 100 years, and its 100-year GWP is currently estimated to be 296 times that of CO2. \u003ca title=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\" href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Offsets\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nEmission reduction credits from project-based activities that can be used to meet compliance or corporate objectives as a supplement or alternative to reducing one’s own emissions. In a cap-and-trade scheme, offsets may be used instead of allowances, sometimes up to a limit. California allows the use of offsets to satisfy up to 8% of a company's compliance requirement. Initially four types of offset programs were allowed: expansion of forests and urban forests, methane capture on farms and ranches and reduction of ozone-depleting substances. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Prop 23\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAn unsuccessful statewide ballot measure in 2011, largely financed by oil and gas interests, that sought to suspend California's regulations under AB 32.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nA regional cap-and-trade system that currently includes Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont. The District of Columbia, Pennsylvania, the Eastern Canadian Provinces and New Brunswick are observers in the process. \u003ca href=\"http://www.rggi.org/\">RGGI\u003c/a> covers CO2 emissions from electric power plants in the region, and requires a 10% reduction in these emissions by 2018. The first three-year compliance period started in January 2009. In 2011, the states commenced a review process in order to determine whether to tighten the emissions cap so that emitters would be incentivized to reduce internal emissions further. The review process should be completed in 2013. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Vapor (H2O)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nWater vapor is the primary gas responsible for the greenhouse effect. It is believed that increases in temperature caused by anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, resulting in additional warming. \u003ca title=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\" href=\"http://www.c2es.org/science-impacts/basics/glossary\">(Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Western Climate Initiative (WCI)\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nRegional initiative launched in February 2007 by states and provinces, mostly along the western rim of the United States, Canada and Mexico. \u003ca href=\"http://www.westernclimateinitiative.org/\">WCI\u003c/a> is a collaboration of independent jurisdictions working together to identify, evaluate and implement emissions trading policies to tackle climate change at a regional level. Nominally, WCI partners are: California, Quebec, Manitoba, British Columbia and Ontario, but only California and Quebec have passed regulations which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. \u003ca title=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\" href=\"http://www.pointcarbon.com/1.266906\">(Source info: Point Carbon)\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"disqusTitle": "Watching the Atmospheric Rivers Flow",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46689\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46689\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46689\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-400x225.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Atmospheric river of October 13, 2009. NOAA images\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers are a 21st-century weather threat that first got their name in 1998, after satellites capable of measuring water vapor in the air began producing images like this one. It shows the chronically humid tropical ocean at the bottom, and long, thin streamers of water vapor threading away from the tropics. It was soon estimated that these streamers—atmospheric rivers or ARs—are responsible for essentially all of the moisture transported out of the tropics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The basic connection between ARs and major precipitation events was obvious. In California, our 20th-century name for these is the Pineapple Express: a huge influx of warm, water-heavy air from the tropical Pacific that overfills the rivers and piles snow on the mountains. Smaller ARs may not cause major floods, but they can bump up river flows by 10 times in a day or two. They deliver to California about one-third of its total water. Clearly ARs are important research topics for both scientific and practical reasons. How do they interact with El Niño/La Niña cycles? How will climate change affect them? How can we better protect ourselves from them?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>America has just finished going through Hurricane Sandy. Hurricanes are important events, but ARs affect both coasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's \u003ca href=\"http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/\">AR site\u003c/a> points to the notorious \"Snowmageddon\" blizzard of February 2010 as an East Coast example, when a river of Pacific moisture crossed Central America and the Caribbean before drenching the Atlantic states. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46688\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.gif\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46688\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Norway got a large AR in the late summer of 2005, and many others are sure to be found in the global weather records. But California seems to be the current champion, maybe because the data is better here. Between 1997 and 2006 there were 42 AR events touching California, of which seven caused major flooding of the type requiring evacuations and triggering large-scale power outages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even without knowing their cause, California has had epic floods during its history, and recently emergency planners have begun to take the \"\u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/geologyandculture/qt/The-Deep-Present.htm\">deep present\u003c/a>\" approach to them. What if the worst example we know, the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862\">great flood of 1862\u003c/a>, were to recur today? That had the earmarks of an unusually large AR event or a rapid series of them. As the planning agencies contemplated that question, they prepared a scenario in 2010 with the Noachian name \u003ca href=\"http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm-2/\">ARkStorm\u003c/a> (for \"AR thousand-year storm\") clearly demonstrating that ARs are our other \"Big One\" beside earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since ARkStorm was completed, several agencies have carried its findings forward. In particular, a new Atmospheric River Observatory is nearing completion at Bodega Bay that will conduct crucial ground-based observations of ARs that pass over the Bay Area. The satellite water-vapor data is not enough, because everything else matters too: the elevation where the moisture sits, the winds at different levels, the temperature profile of the lower atmosphere and much more that meteorologists need for the best modeling. After that, the flood predicters add the model's results to their own knowledge of river levels and soil moisture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What makes ARs so potent is that they bring in air saturated with tropical moisture, the closer to sea level the wetter. Such air will turn its water to rain almost instantly when lifted up by the Coast Range, and again when it hits the Sierra Nevada. The new AR Observatory at Bodega Bay, like others being built along the west coast, will interrogate the air with radar at various wavelengths, measure rainfall with standard gauges and drop-size distribution with disdrometers, and derive water-vapor content from GPS data (an unforeseen benefit of the universal navigation system). More instruments in the mountains near Cazadero will complement it. The promise is that we will be able to accurately forecast these 21st-century events, and their effects in our neighborhoods, a week or more in advance.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46689\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46689\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46689\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-400x225.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Atmospheric river of October 13, 2009. NOAA images\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers are a 21st-century weather threat that first got their name in 1998, after satellites capable of measuring water vapor in the air began producing images like this one. It shows the chronically humid tropical ocean at the bottom, and long, thin streamers of water vapor threading away from the tropics. It was soon estimated that these streamers—atmospheric rivers or ARs—are responsible for essentially all of the moisture transported out of the tropics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The basic connection between ARs and major precipitation events was obvious. In California, our 20th-century name for these is the Pineapple Express: a huge influx of warm, water-heavy air from the tropical Pacific that overfills the rivers and piles snow on the mountains. Smaller ARs may not cause major floods, but they can bump up river flows by 10 times in a day or two. They deliver to California about one-third of its total water. Clearly ARs are important research topics for both scientific and practical reasons. How do they interact with El Niño/La Niña cycles? How will climate change affect them? How can we better protect ourselves from them?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>America has just finished going through Hurricane Sandy. Hurricanes are important events, but ARs affect both coasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's \u003ca href=\"http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/\">AR site\u003c/a> points to the notorious \"Snowmageddon\" blizzard of February 2010 as an East Coast example, when a river of Pacific moisture crossed Central America and the Caribbean before drenching the Atlantic states. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46688\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.gif\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46688\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Norway got a large AR in the late summer of 2005, and many others are sure to be found in the global weather records. But California seems to be the current champion, maybe because the data is better here. Between 1997 and 2006 there were 42 AR events touching California, of which seven caused major flooding of the type requiring evacuations and triggering large-scale power outages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even without knowing their cause, California has had epic floods during its history, and recently emergency planners have begun to take the \"\u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/geologyandculture/qt/The-Deep-Present.htm\">deep present\u003c/a>\" approach to them. What if the worst example we know, the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862\">great flood of 1862\u003c/a>, were to recur today? That had the earmarks of an unusually large AR event or a rapid series of them. As the planning agencies contemplated that question, they prepared a scenario in 2010 with the Noachian name \u003ca href=\"http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm-2/\">ARkStorm\u003c/a> (for \"AR thousand-year storm\") clearly demonstrating that ARs are our other \"Big One\" beside earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since ARkStorm was completed, several agencies have carried its findings forward. In particular, a new Atmospheric River Observatory is nearing completion at Bodega Bay that will conduct crucial ground-based observations of ARs that pass over the Bay Area. The satellite water-vapor data is not enough, because everything else matters too: the elevation where the moisture sits, the winds at different levels, the temperature profile of the lower atmosphere and much more that meteorologists need for the best modeling. After that, the flood predicters add the model's results to their own knowledge of river levels and soil moisture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What makes ARs so potent is that they bring in air saturated with tropical moisture, the closer to sea level the wetter. Such air will turn its water to rain almost instantly when lifted up by the Coast Range, and again when it hits the Sierra Nevada. The new AR Observatory at Bodega Bay, like others being built along the west coast, will interrogate the air with radar at various wavelengths, measure rainfall with standard gauges and drop-size distribution with disdrometers, and derive water-vapor content from GPS data (an unforeseen benefit of the universal navigation system). More instruments in the mountains near Cazadero will complement it. The promise is that we will be able to accurately forecast these 21st-century events, and their effects in our neighborhoods, a week or more in advance.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"disqusTitle": "Heat and Harvest - the documentary",
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"content": "\u003cp>Like what you see in the supermarket produce section? Enjoy, because things may be changing there – the prices, even the mix of available fruits, nuts and veggies. Long acknowledged as \"the nation's salad bowl,\" California's farm belt is facing some thorny challenges from our changing climate: rising temperatures, an uncertain water supply and more abundant pests that threaten multi-billion-dollar crops. The half-hour documentary \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest\u003c/strong>, a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, examines these threats and some potential solutions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44759\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch01_blossom_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44759\" title=\"Cherry blossom\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch01_blossom_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cherries need a certain number of \"chilling hours\" to bloom evenly. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The first story in the program, \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Uncool Cherries\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/uncool-cherries/\" target=\"_blank\">Uncool Cherries\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, looks at the challenges facing cherry growers near Stockton. Life is hardly a bowl of cherries if you're trying to grow them in California lately. Cherries and other major fruit crops need a certain number of \"chilling hours\" in order to produce healthy blossoms and fruit. But in recent years, the spring nights have brought warmer temperatures and less of the legendary Valley fog that helps keep the chill on. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44690\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44690\" title=\"Almond plant damaged by salt\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Almond plants damaged by salt in the groundwater, which burned their leaves. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The second story, \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Dry and Salted\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/dry-and-salted/\" target=\"_blank\">Dry and Salted\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, examines the major wildcards in California's farming future: water and salt. Growers are having to learn to get along with less of the first and more of the second. That can mean leaving once-productive fields fallow or having to find less water-intensive crops and irrigation methods. But water quality is also presenting a challenge as growers find themselves having to cope with salt in their groundwater and the threat of encroaching saltwater from rising seas. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45106\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Gary_McDonald_potato_psyllid_1917_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45106\" title=\"Potato-tomato psyllid\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Gary_McDonald_potato_psyllid_1917_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scientists believe that warmer winters have made the potato-tomato psyllid, which damages 40 crops, more abundant in California. Photo: Gary McDonald.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>ends with \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Some Bugs Like it Hot\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/some-bugs-like-it-hot-climate-change-and-agricultural-pests/\" target=\"_blank\">Some Bugs Like it Hot: Climate Change and Agricultural Pests\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a look at how climate change is making agricultural pests more abundant in the state’s fields. A tiny insect that didn’t used to pose a problem for California farmers is now transmitting a disease that damages potato chips and threatens the state’s tomato crop. Are more pesticides the answer? We talk to farmers and scientists to see what's being done to meet the challenge. (Producer: Gabriela Quirós / Program Host & Reporter: Craig Miller)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Play our water quiz and guess what California crop needs the most water.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNqjxzpJPSA]\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Like what you see in the supermarket produce section? Enjoy, because things may be changing there – the prices, even the mix of available fruits, nuts and veggies. Long acknowledged as \"the nation's salad bowl,\" California's farm belt is facing some thorny challenges from our changing climate: rising temperatures, an uncertain water supply and more abundant pests that threaten multi-billion-dollar crops. The half-hour documentary \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest\u003c/strong>, a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, examines these threats and some potential solutions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44759\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch01_blossom_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44759\" title=\"Cherry blossom\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch01_blossom_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cherries need a certain number of \"chilling hours\" to bloom evenly. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The first story in the program, \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Uncool Cherries\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/uncool-cherries/\" target=\"_blank\">Uncool Cherries\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, looks at the challenges facing cherry growers near Stockton. Life is hardly a bowl of cherries if you're trying to grow them in California lately. Cherries and other major fruit crops need a certain number of \"chilling hours\" in order to produce healthy blossoms and fruit. But in recent years, the spring nights have brought warmer temperatures and less of the legendary Valley fog that helps keep the chill on. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44690\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44690\" title=\"Almond plant damaged by salt\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Almond plants damaged by salt in the groundwater, which burned their leaves. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The second story, \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Dry and Salted\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/dry-and-salted/\" target=\"_blank\">Dry and Salted\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, examines the major wildcards in California's farming future: water and salt. Growers are having to learn to get along with less of the first and more of the second. That can mean leaving once-productive fields fallow or having to find less water-intensive crops and irrigation methods. But water quality is also presenting a challenge as growers find themselves having to cope with salt in their groundwater and the threat of encroaching saltwater from rising seas. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45106\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Gary_McDonald_potato_psyllid_1917_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45106\" title=\"Potato-tomato psyllid\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Gary_McDonald_potato_psyllid_1917_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scientists believe that warmer winters have made the potato-tomato psyllid, which damages 40 crops, more abundant in California. Photo: Gary McDonald.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>ends with \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Some Bugs Like it Hot\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/some-bugs-like-it-hot-climate-change-and-agricultural-pests/\" target=\"_blank\">Some Bugs Like it Hot: Climate Change and Agricultural Pests\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a look at how climate change is making agricultural pests more abundant in the state’s fields. A tiny insect that didn’t used to pose a problem for California farmers is now transmitting a disease that damages potato chips and threatens the state’s tomato crop. Are more pesticides the answer? We talk to farmers and scientists to see what's being done to meet the challenge. (Producer: Gabriela Quirós / Program Host & Reporter: Craig Miller)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Play our water quiz and guess what California crop needs the most water.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Potato grower \u003ca title=\"Brian Kirschenmann bio\" href=\"http://www.uspotatoes.com/pressRoom/pr.php?id=82\" target=\"_blank\">Brian Kirschenmann\u003c/a> bent over the deep green plants in his field in New Cuyama, nestled in a verdant valley an hour southwest of Bakersfield, and looked at the bottom of each leaf.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Next to him, his crop advisor Gary Toschi examined a leaf under a magnifying glass.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That one is active,” said Toschi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44631\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Jeff_Bradshaw_adultnympsandeggs_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44631\" title=\"Potato-tomato psyllids\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Jeff_Bradshaw_adultnympsandeggs_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An adult potato-tomato psyllid surrounded by young nymphs. Photo: Jeffrey Bradshaw, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>He and Kirschenmann had found a round, bright green insect, about the size of the comma on a computer keyboard. The tiny pest is called a \u003ca title=\"University of Nebraska sheet about potato-tomato psyllids.\" href=\"http://www.ianrpubs.unl.edu/epublic/pages/publicationD.jsp?publicationId=1449\" target=\"_blank\">potato-tomato psyllid\u003c/a>, and both the young nymphs like the one they found, and the adults, which are shaped like a cicada, wreak havoc on potatoes, as well as tomatoes, peppers and about 40 other crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In potatoes, they suck the plant dry. And what’s worse, the pest also can transmit a disease that ruins potato chips – a $6 billion business in the United States, despite the bad rap chips get from nutritionists. The disease transmitted by potato-tomato psyllids gives chips a burnt flavor and causes them to develop brown streaks, which is why the disease is known as “\u003ca title=\"Information about zebra chip disease\" href=\"http://zebrachipscri.tamu.edu/about-the-project/\" target=\"_blank\">zebra chip\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44657\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/John_Trumble_Zebra_Chip_Comparison_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44657\" title=\"Potatoes with zebra chip disease.\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/John_Trumble_Zebra_Chip_Comparison_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potatoes infected with zebra chip disease streak when they're fried. Photo: John Trumble.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In 2008, Kirschenmann lost $250,000, when one of his potato fields in Kern County was infected with zebra chip and Frito Lay wouldn’t buy his chipper potatoes. Though potatoes aren’t one of California’s main crops, in Kern County they’re among the top 10 in value, to the tune of $130 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Zebra chip disease hasn’t caused widespread losses in California, but the state’s potato growers are worried, especially after South Korea banned potato imports from Washington, Oregon and Idaho in August, out of concern over the disease. The ban is costing producers in those states some $8 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s my biggest fear,” said Kirschenmann, who grows 5,700 acres of potatoes in Kern County and New Cuyama and is a member of the United States Potato Board. Though California doesn’t export potatoes to South Korea, Kirschenmann does sell part of his crop to Guatemala and the Dominican Republic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44626\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Brian_Kirschenmann_potato_grower_resize.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44626\" title=\"Brian Kirschenmann, potato grower\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Brian_Kirschenmann_potato_grower_resize-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potato grower Brian Kirschenmann.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>California has had potato-tomato psyllids for more than 100 years. What makes them a new problem for growers is that now they don’t just live in the state during the warmer months; they also spend the winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our temperatures have increased by 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit, and that seems to be enough to keep them from being frozen out during the winter,” said entomologist \u003ca title=\"John Trumble bio\" href=\"http://www.facultydirectory.ucr.edu/cgi-bin/pub/public_individual.pl?faculty=159\" target=\"_blank\">John Trumble\u003c/a>, of the University of California, Riverside. “I suspect that global warming is at least playing a role in this particular insect’s spread into California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Insects can’t produce their own heat, the way mammals do, so most of them do better in warmer temperatures. Around the world, scientists have started to document changes in insect behavior, as a result of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44627\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/John-Trumble_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44627\" title=\"John Trumble, UC Riverside\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/John-Trumble_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Entomologist John Trumble, from UC Riverside, says warmer temperatures are making a pest of potatoes and tomatoes more abundant in California.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In Spain, the European grapevine moth is flying out earlier in the summer and reproducing more abundantly than it did 20 years ago. On Tanzania’s Mt. Kilimanjaro, malaria mosquitoes are moving farther up the mountain. And in Japan, a pest called the green stink bug, that damages rice and soybeans, is expanding its range northward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is not speculative, this is not something that we would predict,” said Trumble. “This is what’s happening now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Trumble discovered, in the year 2000, that potato-tomato psyllids had spent the winter near one of his research tomato fields in Irvine, he knew this change in the insect’s behavior was bad news: it meant the pest could begin attacking crops early in the growing season.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s much more dangerous for the grower,” said Trumble, “because early infestation in a crop oftentimes leads to much more damage than if the pest occurs late in the crop.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When spring temperatures get warm, this sends a cue to insects to begin their development, said entomologist Peter Oboyski, manager of collections at the University of California, Berkeley’s Essig Museum of Entomology.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the season gets warmer earlier, that gives insects that much more time to develop, that much more time to eat a plant, that much more time to produce another generation,” said Oboyski.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44634\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Jack_Kelly_Clark_I-HO-PCOC-AD.003_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44634\" title=\"Potato-tomato psyllid\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Jack_Kelly_Clark_I-HO-PCOC-AD.003_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potato-tomato psyllid. Photo: Jack Kelly Clark, courtesy University of California Statewide IPM Program.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But how did UC Riverside’s John Trumble know that he was seeing a new behavior in the psyllid?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To figure out if spending the winter in California was a new behavior, Trumble turned to the historical record. He was fortunate that scientists in California have been collecting psyllids and making detailed notes about their habits since the 1880s. Through this information, he concluded that he was seeing something new.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every 30 years, since about 1900, it’s moved into California,” said Trumble, “and we would find it, it would be here for six months to a year, and then it would disappear, presumably because it got too cold.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That pattern changed radically in 2000, with the psyllid spending the winter in Trumble’s field in Irvine. And the pest has since overwintered in locations further and further north.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2004, tomato growers discovered psyllids had overwintered in Hollister. In 2012, scientists found they had spent the winter in the Washington-Oregon-Idaho area, where half of the country’s potatoes are grown. And this year, the pest also appeared in Manitoba, Canada, early in the growing season, a sign that it might have spent the winter there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As temperatures warm up in California and across the United States,” said Trumble, “these insects will be able to overwinter further and further north.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, down south, farmers have already been hit hard by the pest. In Mexico’s Baja California, the psyllids destroyed 85 percent of the tomato crop in 2001, said Trumble. Partly in response to the new pest, California farmers who grow tomatoes in Baja California have moved much of their production inside screened enclosures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Spraying for psyllids is costing California potato growers about $75 per acre, said Kirschenmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44628\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Tractor_in_New_Cuyama_WWS_resize.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44628\" title=\"Potato field in New Cuyama, California\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Tractor_in_New_Cuyama_WWS_resize-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potato field in New Cuyama Valley, an hour southwest of Bakersfield. Potato-tomato psyllids have been found nearby. Photos: Gabriela Quirós.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This need for additional spraying has Trumble concerned. Since the 1970s, he and other scientists around the state have worked with growers to reduce pesticide use in conventionally-grown crops. The results have been dramatic, he said. Tomato growers, for example, cut spraying by half in the 1990s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Less pesticide use means less concern by the consumers for pesticide residue. We use less fossil fuel; we have fewer volatile organic compounds that appear in the atmosphere; it reduces smog. It’s a real win-win for everybody in California,” said Trumble.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But warmer temperatures, and the pests that thrive in them, now threaten to undermine these gains.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So if you have an insect with multiple generations, you get more generations. If you’ve got an insect that occurs early in a crop, it will occur earlier in the crop, and faster,” said Trumble. “So all of these things are desperately in need of additional research.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A shorter version of this video story is part of the 30-minute documentary \u003ca title=\"Heat and Harvest - the documentary\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>, a co-production of KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting, that airs on KQED and PBS stations around California on Friday September 28 at 7:30 pm. Check your local listings.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Potato grower \u003ca title=\"Brian Kirschenmann bio\" href=\"http://www.uspotatoes.com/pressRoom/pr.php?id=82\" target=\"_blank\">Brian Kirschenmann\u003c/a> bent over the deep green plants in his field in New Cuyama, nestled in a verdant valley an hour southwest of Bakersfield, and looked at the bottom of each leaf.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Next to him, his crop advisor Gary Toschi examined a leaf under a magnifying glass.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That one is active,” said Toschi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44631\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Jeff_Bradshaw_adultnympsandeggs_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44631\" title=\"Potato-tomato psyllids\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Jeff_Bradshaw_adultnympsandeggs_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An adult potato-tomato psyllid surrounded by young nymphs. Photo: Jeffrey Bradshaw, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>He and Kirschenmann had found a round, bright green insect, about the size of the comma on a computer keyboard. The tiny pest is called a \u003ca title=\"University of Nebraska sheet about potato-tomato psyllids.\" href=\"http://www.ianrpubs.unl.edu/epublic/pages/publicationD.jsp?publicationId=1449\" target=\"_blank\">potato-tomato psyllid\u003c/a>, and both the young nymphs like the one they found, and the adults, which are shaped like a cicada, wreak havoc on potatoes, as well as tomatoes, peppers and about 40 other crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In potatoes, they suck the plant dry. And what’s worse, the pest also can transmit a disease that ruins potato chips – a $6 billion business in the United States, despite the bad rap chips get from nutritionists. The disease transmitted by potato-tomato psyllids gives chips a burnt flavor and causes them to develop brown streaks, which is why the disease is known as “\u003ca title=\"Information about zebra chip disease\" href=\"http://zebrachipscri.tamu.edu/about-the-project/\" target=\"_blank\">zebra chip\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44657\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/John_Trumble_Zebra_Chip_Comparison_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44657\" title=\"Potatoes with zebra chip disease.\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/John_Trumble_Zebra_Chip_Comparison_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potatoes infected with zebra chip disease streak when they're fried. Photo: John Trumble.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In 2008, Kirschenmann lost $250,000, when one of his potato fields in Kern County was infected with zebra chip and Frito Lay wouldn’t buy his chipper potatoes. Though potatoes aren’t one of California’s main crops, in Kern County they’re among the top 10 in value, to the tune of $130 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Zebra chip disease hasn’t caused widespread losses in California, but the state’s potato growers are worried, especially after South Korea banned potato imports from Washington, Oregon and Idaho in August, out of concern over the disease. The ban is costing producers in those states some $8 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s my biggest fear,” said Kirschenmann, who grows 5,700 acres of potatoes in Kern County and New Cuyama and is a member of the United States Potato Board. Though California doesn’t export potatoes to South Korea, Kirschenmann does sell part of his crop to Guatemala and the Dominican Republic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44626\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Brian_Kirschenmann_potato_grower_resize.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44626\" title=\"Brian Kirschenmann, potato grower\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Brian_Kirschenmann_potato_grower_resize-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potato grower Brian Kirschenmann.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>California has had potato-tomato psyllids for more than 100 years. What makes them a new problem for growers is that now they don’t just live in the state during the warmer months; they also spend the winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our temperatures have increased by 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit, and that seems to be enough to keep them from being frozen out during the winter,” said entomologist \u003ca title=\"John Trumble bio\" href=\"http://www.facultydirectory.ucr.edu/cgi-bin/pub/public_individual.pl?faculty=159\" target=\"_blank\">John Trumble\u003c/a>, of the University of California, Riverside. “I suspect that global warming is at least playing a role in this particular insect’s spread into California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Insects can’t produce their own heat, the way mammals do, so most of them do better in warmer temperatures. Around the world, scientists have started to document changes in insect behavior, as a result of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44627\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/John-Trumble_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44627\" title=\"John Trumble, UC Riverside\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/John-Trumble_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Entomologist John Trumble, from UC Riverside, says warmer temperatures are making a pest of potatoes and tomatoes more abundant in California.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In Spain, the European grapevine moth is flying out earlier in the summer and reproducing more abundantly than it did 20 years ago. On Tanzania’s Mt. Kilimanjaro, malaria mosquitoes are moving farther up the mountain. And in Japan, a pest called the green stink bug, that damages rice and soybeans, is expanding its range northward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is not speculative, this is not something that we would predict,” said Trumble. “This is what’s happening now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Trumble discovered, in the year 2000, that potato-tomato psyllids had spent the winter near one of his research tomato fields in Irvine, he knew this change in the insect’s behavior was bad news: it meant the pest could begin attacking crops early in the growing season.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s much more dangerous for the grower,” said Trumble, “because early infestation in a crop oftentimes leads to much more damage than if the pest occurs late in the crop.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When spring temperatures get warm, this sends a cue to insects to begin their development, said entomologist Peter Oboyski, manager of collections at the University of California, Berkeley’s Essig Museum of Entomology.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the season gets warmer earlier, that gives insects that much more time to develop, that much more time to eat a plant, that much more time to produce another generation,” said Oboyski.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44634\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Jack_Kelly_Clark_I-HO-PCOC-AD.003_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44634\" title=\"Potato-tomato psyllid\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Jack_Kelly_Clark_I-HO-PCOC-AD.003_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potato-tomato psyllid. Photo: Jack Kelly Clark, courtesy University of California Statewide IPM Program.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But how did UC Riverside’s John Trumble know that he was seeing a new behavior in the psyllid?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To figure out if spending the winter in California was a new behavior, Trumble turned to the historical record. He was fortunate that scientists in California have been collecting psyllids and making detailed notes about their habits since the 1880s. Through this information, he concluded that he was seeing something new.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every 30 years, since about 1900, it’s moved into California,” said Trumble, “and we would find it, it would be here for six months to a year, and then it would disappear, presumably because it got too cold.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That pattern changed radically in 2000, with the psyllid spending the winter in Trumble’s field in Irvine. And the pest has since overwintered in locations further and further north.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2004, tomato growers discovered psyllids had overwintered in Hollister. In 2012, scientists found they had spent the winter in the Washington-Oregon-Idaho area, where half of the country’s potatoes are grown. And this year, the pest also appeared in Manitoba, Canada, early in the growing season, a sign that it might have spent the winter there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As temperatures warm up in California and across the United States,” said Trumble, “these insects will be able to overwinter further and further north.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, down south, farmers have already been hit hard by the pest. In Mexico’s Baja California, the psyllids destroyed 85 percent of the tomato crop in 2001, said Trumble. Partly in response to the new pest, California farmers who grow tomatoes in Baja California have moved much of their production inside screened enclosures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Spraying for psyllids is costing California potato growers about $75 per acre, said Kirschenmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44628\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Tractor_in_New_Cuyama_WWS_resize.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-44628\" title=\"Potato field in New Cuyama, California\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/Tractor_in_New_Cuyama_WWS_resize-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potato field in New Cuyama Valley, an hour southwest of Bakersfield. Potato-tomato psyllids have been found nearby. Photos: Gabriela Quirós.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This need for additional spraying has Trumble concerned. Since the 1970s, he and other scientists around the state have worked with growers to reduce pesticide use in conventionally-grown crops. The results have been dramatic, he said. Tomato growers, for example, cut spraying by half in the 1990s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Less pesticide use means less concern by the consumers for pesticide residue. We use less fossil fuel; we have fewer volatile organic compounds that appear in the atmosphere; it reduces smog. It’s a real win-win for everybody in California,” said Trumble.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But warmer temperatures, and the pests that thrive in them, now threaten to undermine these gains.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So if you have an insect with multiple generations, you get more generations. If you’ve got an insect that occurs early in a crop, it will occur earlier in the crop, and faster,” said Trumble. “So all of these things are desperately in need of additional research.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A shorter version of this video story is part of the 30-minute documentary \u003ca title=\"Heat and Harvest - the documentary\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>, a co-production of KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting, that airs on KQED and PBS stations around California on Friday September 28 at 7:30 pm. Check your local listings.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted\u003c/strong> examines the major wildcards in California's farming future: water and salt. Growers are having to learn to get along with less of the first and more of the second. That can mean leaving once-productive fields fallow or having to find less water-intensive crops and irrigation methods. But water quality is also presenting a challenge as growers find themselves having to cope with salt in their groundwater and the threat of encroaching saltwater from rising seas. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted \u003c/strong>is one of the three stories in \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Heat and Harvest\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a half-hour documentary on how climate change is challenging California’s $30 billion agricultural industry. \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>is a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a> and airs on KQED channel 9 on Friday Sept. 28 and Monday Oct. 1 at 7:30 pm. The film also airs on PBS stations around California in September and October. Check local listings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch1>Volatile weather creates dramatic changes for California farmers\u003c/h1>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nBy Mark Schapiro\u003cbr>\nCenter for Investigative Reporting\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This article is part 1 of a two-part series published in newspapers across California on Thurs. Sept. 27.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ten miles outside of Modesto, in the farming town of Hughson just off Highway 99, the \u003ca title=\"Duarte Nursery\" href=\"http://duartenursery.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Duarte Nursery\u003c/a> is at the front line of dramatic changes now under way in California’s immense agriculture industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45068\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45068\" title=\"John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The family-run nursery, founded in 1976, is one of the largest in the United States, and there’s a good chance the berries, nuts and citrus fruits eaten across the West began their journey to market as seedlings in Duarte’s 30 acres of greenhouses, labs and breeding stations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nursery’s owners have built a thriving business using state-of-the-art techniques to develop varieties adapted to the particular conditions and pests California farmers face.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These days, according to John Duarte, president of the nursery, that means breeding for elevated levels of heat and salt, which researchers say are symptoms of climate change – even if Duarte doesn’t necessarily see it that way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Whether it’s carbon built up in the atmosphere or just friggin’ bad luck,” he said, “the conditions are straining us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cause of Duarte’s woes might be in dispute among farmers in California’s $31 billion agriculture industry. But the symptoms are clear. From the vast fields of fruits and nuts in the Central Valley to the wineries of Napa and Sonoma, the increasingly volatile weather is altering the fundamental conditions for growing food, California’s largest industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Farmers are in many ways at the front line of climate change. They conjure food from soil, sunlight and water – all of which are profoundly affected, scientists say, by climate change. Stresses have emerged across the state as water supplies tighten. Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the nurseries and colleges in what Duarte calls “the Silicon Valley of agricultural innovation,” these changing conditions have forced botanists to look for varieties of almond, pepper, citrus, cherry and other crops resistant to drought and salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other interests also are bracing for dramatic change. The crop insurance industry is calculating potential billion-dollar losses from extreme weather conditions, as well as the floods and fires that occur in their wake. Climate change could join the ranks of earthquake and hurricane insurance as a special – and hugely expensive – problem for insurers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45066\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45066\" title=\"Plant clone\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery, holds a plant that he's breeding to be more tolerant to heat and salt. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the past 20 years, there has been more than $500 million in crop losses from heat waves, floods and ill-timed rainstorms in the heavily agricultural counties of San Joaquin, Merced, Kings, Kern, Napa and Sonoma, according to a study last year by a team of Stanford University researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Compared to 20 or 30 years ago, farmers are recognizing a lot more risk factors in climate events,” said Jeff Yasui, director of the \u003ca title=\"USDA Risk Management Agency\" href=\"http://www.rma.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency office\u003c/a> in California, which handles crop insurance in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate and agriculture scientists predicted much of this. \u003ca title=\"Charles Kolstad bio\" href=\"http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~kolstad/HmPg/\" target=\"_blank\">Charles Kolstad\u003c/a>, an environmental economist at UC Santa Barbara, said California agriculture is being hit with a trifecta of converging forces prompted by climate change: longer seasons of extreme heat, shorter cold seasons and dwindling water supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Yields of key crops are expected to drop significantly over the coming decades as climate change alters these growing conditions, according to a report Kolstad co-wrote for the state Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Commission and published last fall in the peer-reviewed journal Climatic Change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists believe the Earth’s average temperature will rise at least 2 degrees in the next four decades – their most conservative estimate. Along the way, the yields of citrus crops in the San Joaquin Valley are expected to drop about 18 percent, grapes about 6 percent, and cherries and other orchard crops about 9 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those crops – accustomed to the cooler edges of California’s climate – are showing declining yields already, according to the \u003ca title=\"National Agricultural Statistics Service\" href=\"http://www.nass.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service\u003c/a>. That could mean higher prices for consumers as the supply shrinks. This summer’s record droughts in the Midwest also prompted the USDA to predict a similar rise in prices driven by devastated yields for corn and soybeans, the primary food for chicken and cattle nationwide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kolstad and other scientists have focused on tree-based perennial crops because they are fixed in 25- to 30-year cycles and cannot easily be adapted to changing conditions. Switching a tree orchard from cherries, for example, to more heat-tolerant pistachios, avocados or tangerines can cost millions of dollars before the trees start bearing marketable fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If California’s water crisis persists, seasonal vegetables and fruits also will be dramatically affected. Some already are.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Much of the southern Central Valley, spreading along either side of Interstate 5, is now a patchwork of fallow fields, according to Gayle Holman with the \u003ca title=\"Westlands Water District\" href=\"http://www.westlandswater.org/wwd/default2.asp?cwide=1280\" target=\"_blank\">Westlands Water District\u003c/a> in Fresno. Thousands of acres that once grew onions, tomatoes, melons and other crops have been set aside by farmers because they can no longer obtain, or afford, water – a scarcity, scientists say, that is significantly due to the dramatic shifts in the timing of rainfalls in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those grower cutbacks are felt most acutely in Central Valley towns like Mendota, where farm workers can no longer find the seasonal fieldwork upon which they once relied. Official unemployment in the area ranges between 15 and 20 percent. Studies by the state’s Employment Development Department show an inverse correlation between water allocations and unemployment in the valley: The water supply goes down, and the unemployment rate goes up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>One problem, then another\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like just about everything having to do with climate change, the consequences unfold like a sequence of trapdoors. First, there’s the temperature, a jagged progression over the past decade of unusual highs and lows occurring at times of the year that can debilitate growing crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45073\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45073\" title=\"California Aqueduct\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scientists warn that less water is coming into the system. Photo: Gabriela Quirós.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Then there’s the water. California’s water sources are caught in a pincer: More water is needed at a time when less water is being delivered into the network of canals carrying it from the north to the agricultural regions in the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A precipitous drop in snowfall has led to declining water runoff in the San Joaquin and Sacramento rivers in the spring and summer months, when it’s central to irrigation in the valley. Over the past century, the state \u003ca title=\"Department of Water Resources\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">Department of Water Resources\u003c/a> has measured a steady 10 percent decline in runoff from April to July. In recent years, however, the rate has accelerated to as much as 20 percent during those critical months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the three years between 2006 and 2009, the runoff amounted to the equivalent of two “normal” years, according to John Leahigh, chief of operations planning for the \u003ca title=\"California State Water Project\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/swp/\" target=\"_blank\">California State Water Project\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, such calculations appear to be the new normal. This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In February, the Department of Water Resources cut the delivery of water to valley farmers from 60 to 50 percent of their allotment – a practically unprecedented reduction that late in the growing season, according to Leahigh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Parts of the valley supplied by the federal water project have been cut even more severely, to 30 percent of their normal allotment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmers in the valley generally blame the drop-off in water on the 2007 state Supreme Court decision affirming the need for water to preserve Pacific smelt and other endangered species.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by the \u003ca title=\"Public Policy Institute of California\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>, however, concludes that the roughly 300,000 acre-feet of water diverted to comply with the Endangered Species Act constitutes no more than 15 to 20 percent of the reduced water flow to the valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, the overall pool of water is shrinking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s less water coming into the system,” said \u003ca title=\"Francis Chung bio\" href=\"http://baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/modeling/keypersonnel.cfm\" target=\"_blank\">Francis Chung\u003c/a>, chief of the Modeling Support Branch for the Department of Water Resources. “The water that used to exist is now coming earlier in the year. So there’s less water to distribute (to the valley) during the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rising sea levels threaten water supply\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another growing problem has been rising sea levels associated with climate change. The San Francisco Bay, according to a recent assessment by the \u003ca title=\"National Research Council\" href=\"http://nationalacademies.org/nrc/\" target=\"_blank\">National Research Council\u003c/a>, is projected to rise by as much as 18 inches, and potentially triple that by the end of the century. Those inches translate into waves of new salt sources lapping into the delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Less water channeled into the delta from the Sierra means less available freshwater to dilute the onrush of salt, which has been pushing steadily eastward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For each foot in sea level, 200,000 acre-feet of freshwater, known as “carriage water,” is needed to hold the line on the saltwater. That amounts to one-fifth the volume of Folsom Lake each year, according to Chung, and the diversions will only increase as the sea level rises.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by UC Davis estimates that if salinity continues to rise at the current rate, by 2030, the financial costs to the Central Valley could be huge: as much as $1 billion to $1.5 billion a year in decreased agricultural activity, amounting to some 27,000 to 53,000 jobs lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45064\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45064\" title=\"Almond leaves burned by salt\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Salt in the groundwater burns almond leaves and reduces a tree's yield. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the next 40 years, salinity is expected to increase by 4 to 26 percent, depending on the time of year, at the two water-pumping stations outside of Tracy. From there, most of the water destined for the valley is sent southward, according to a study by the Public Policy Institute of California and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Watershed Sciences\" href=\"http://watershed.ucdavis.edu/front?destination=node/116\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Ellen Hanak bio\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/bio.asp?i=72\" target=\"_blank\">Ellen Hanak\u003c/a>, senior policy fellow at the institute, explained that inside the delta, the network of waterways helps to dilute the salt content. But in the Central Valley, she said, there’s not enough freshwater to reduce the salt’s impact. That’s partly the result of farmers using more targeted irrigation to reduce waste; they no longer have the excess spillover to mix with the salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no drainage,” she said. “They can’t get rid of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As freshwater supplies decrease, the decisions over how to use it are likely to become even more difficult.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water used to push the ocean back is water not used for agriculture,” said Tara Smith, an analyst and water modeling expert for the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the liquid barricade needed to hold back the ocean is drawn from a dwindling amount of freshwater. The reduction in allocations issued by the water board in February means that more water is necessary to hold back the advancing Pacific Ocean and push the saltwater intrusion westward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have to keep reducing the volume of exports from the delta because of the increased volume needed of carriage water,” said Chung at the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003cbr>\nDaniel Cozad, executive director, Central Valley Salinity Coalition \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, 40 railroad cars’ worth of salt – about 500,000 tons a year – flow daily out of the delta into the fields of the Central Valley. That adds extra salt to valley soils already made salty by the intensive pumping of groundwater from what millions of years ago was the ocean floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Daniel Cozad, executive director of the \u003ca title=\"Central Valley Salinity Coalition\" href=\"http://cvsalinity.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Central Valley Salinity Coalition\u003c/a>, a group of local farmers, businessmen and government officials, said some farmers in the western valley are being forced to adapt by switching from salt-sensitive crops like strawberries and avocados to less sensitive – and less profitable – crops like alfalfa and wheat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately,” Cozad said, “the higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was edited by Robert Salladay and copy edited by Nikki Frick and Christine Lee. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was produced by the nonprofit \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, the country’s largest investigative reporting team, in collaboration with KQED. Mark Schapiro can be reached at \u003ca href=\"mailto:mschapiro@cironline.org\">mschapiro@cironline.org\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Salty groundwater is ruining almond crops in the Central Valley, and scientists expect sea level rise to worsen the problem. This video is part of the Heat and Harvest series, co-produced by KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting.",
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"description": "Salty groundwater is ruining almond crops in the Central Valley, and scientists expect sea level rise to worsen the problem. This video is part of the Heat and Harvest series, co-produced by KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted\u003c/strong> examines the major wildcards in California's farming future: water and salt. Growers are having to learn to get along with less of the first and more of the second. That can mean leaving once-productive fields fallow or having to find less water-intensive crops and irrigation methods. But water quality is also presenting a challenge as growers find themselves having to cope with salt in their groundwater and the threat of encroaching saltwater from rising seas. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted \u003c/strong>is one of the three stories in \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Heat and Harvest\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a half-hour documentary on how climate change is challenging California’s $30 billion agricultural industry. \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>is a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a> and airs on KQED channel 9 on Friday Sept. 28 and Monday Oct. 1 at 7:30 pm. The film also airs on PBS stations around California in September and October. Check local listings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch1>Volatile weather creates dramatic changes for California farmers\u003c/h1>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nBy Mark Schapiro\u003cbr>\nCenter for Investigative Reporting\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This article is part 1 of a two-part series published in newspapers across California on Thurs. Sept. 27.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ten miles outside of Modesto, in the farming town of Hughson just off Highway 99, the \u003ca title=\"Duarte Nursery\" href=\"http://duartenursery.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Duarte Nursery\u003c/a> is at the front line of dramatic changes now under way in California’s immense agriculture industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45068\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45068\" title=\"John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The family-run nursery, founded in 1976, is one of the largest in the United States, and there’s a good chance the berries, nuts and citrus fruits eaten across the West began their journey to market as seedlings in Duarte’s 30 acres of greenhouses, labs and breeding stations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nursery’s owners have built a thriving business using state-of-the-art techniques to develop varieties adapted to the particular conditions and pests California farmers face.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These days, according to John Duarte, president of the nursery, that means breeding for elevated levels of heat and salt, which researchers say are symptoms of climate change – even if Duarte doesn’t necessarily see it that way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Whether it’s carbon built up in the atmosphere or just friggin’ bad luck,” he said, “the conditions are straining us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cause of Duarte’s woes might be in dispute among farmers in California’s $31 billion agriculture industry. But the symptoms are clear. From the vast fields of fruits and nuts in the Central Valley to the wineries of Napa and Sonoma, the increasingly volatile weather is altering the fundamental conditions for growing food, California’s largest industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Farmers are in many ways at the front line of climate change. They conjure food from soil, sunlight and water – all of which are profoundly affected, scientists say, by climate change. Stresses have emerged across the state as water supplies tighten. Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the nurseries and colleges in what Duarte calls “the Silicon Valley of agricultural innovation,” these changing conditions have forced botanists to look for varieties of almond, pepper, citrus, cherry and other crops resistant to drought and salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other interests also are bracing for dramatic change. The crop insurance industry is calculating potential billion-dollar losses from extreme weather conditions, as well as the floods and fires that occur in their wake. Climate change could join the ranks of earthquake and hurricane insurance as a special – and hugely expensive – problem for insurers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45066\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45066\" title=\"Plant clone\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery, holds a plant that he's breeding to be more tolerant to heat and salt. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the past 20 years, there has been more than $500 million in crop losses from heat waves, floods and ill-timed rainstorms in the heavily agricultural counties of San Joaquin, Merced, Kings, Kern, Napa and Sonoma, according to a study last year by a team of Stanford University researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Compared to 20 or 30 years ago, farmers are recognizing a lot more risk factors in climate events,” said Jeff Yasui, director of the \u003ca title=\"USDA Risk Management Agency\" href=\"http://www.rma.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency office\u003c/a> in California, which handles crop insurance in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate and agriculture scientists predicted much of this. \u003ca title=\"Charles Kolstad bio\" href=\"http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~kolstad/HmPg/\" target=\"_blank\">Charles Kolstad\u003c/a>, an environmental economist at UC Santa Barbara, said California agriculture is being hit with a trifecta of converging forces prompted by climate change: longer seasons of extreme heat, shorter cold seasons and dwindling water supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Yields of key crops are expected to drop significantly over the coming decades as climate change alters these growing conditions, according to a report Kolstad co-wrote for the state Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Commission and published last fall in the peer-reviewed journal Climatic Change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists believe the Earth’s average temperature will rise at least 2 degrees in the next four decades – their most conservative estimate. Along the way, the yields of citrus crops in the San Joaquin Valley are expected to drop about 18 percent, grapes about 6 percent, and cherries and other orchard crops about 9 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those crops – accustomed to the cooler edges of California’s climate – are showing declining yields already, according to the \u003ca title=\"National Agricultural Statistics Service\" href=\"http://www.nass.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service\u003c/a>. That could mean higher prices for consumers as the supply shrinks. This summer’s record droughts in the Midwest also prompted the USDA to predict a similar rise in prices driven by devastated yields for corn and soybeans, the primary food for chicken and cattle nationwide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kolstad and other scientists have focused on tree-based perennial crops because they are fixed in 25- to 30-year cycles and cannot easily be adapted to changing conditions. Switching a tree orchard from cherries, for example, to more heat-tolerant pistachios, avocados or tangerines can cost millions of dollars before the trees start bearing marketable fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If California’s water crisis persists, seasonal vegetables and fruits also will be dramatically affected. Some already are.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Much of the southern Central Valley, spreading along either side of Interstate 5, is now a patchwork of fallow fields, according to Gayle Holman with the \u003ca title=\"Westlands Water District\" href=\"http://www.westlandswater.org/wwd/default2.asp?cwide=1280\" target=\"_blank\">Westlands Water District\u003c/a> in Fresno. Thousands of acres that once grew onions, tomatoes, melons and other crops have been set aside by farmers because they can no longer obtain, or afford, water – a scarcity, scientists say, that is significantly due to the dramatic shifts in the timing of rainfalls in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those grower cutbacks are felt most acutely in Central Valley towns like Mendota, where farm workers can no longer find the seasonal fieldwork upon which they once relied. Official unemployment in the area ranges between 15 and 20 percent. Studies by the state’s Employment Development Department show an inverse correlation between water allocations and unemployment in the valley: The water supply goes down, and the unemployment rate goes up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>One problem, then another\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like just about everything having to do with climate change, the consequences unfold like a sequence of trapdoors. First, there’s the temperature, a jagged progression over the past decade of unusual highs and lows occurring at times of the year that can debilitate growing crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45073\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45073\" title=\"California Aqueduct\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scientists warn that less water is coming into the system. Photo: Gabriela Quirós.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Then there’s the water. California’s water sources are caught in a pincer: More water is needed at a time when less water is being delivered into the network of canals carrying it from the north to the agricultural regions in the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A precipitous drop in snowfall has led to declining water runoff in the San Joaquin and Sacramento rivers in the spring and summer months, when it’s central to irrigation in the valley. Over the past century, the state \u003ca title=\"Department of Water Resources\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">Department of Water Resources\u003c/a> has measured a steady 10 percent decline in runoff from April to July. In recent years, however, the rate has accelerated to as much as 20 percent during those critical months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the three years between 2006 and 2009, the runoff amounted to the equivalent of two “normal” years, according to John Leahigh, chief of operations planning for the \u003ca title=\"California State Water Project\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/swp/\" target=\"_blank\">California State Water Project\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, such calculations appear to be the new normal. This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In February, the Department of Water Resources cut the delivery of water to valley farmers from 60 to 50 percent of their allotment – a practically unprecedented reduction that late in the growing season, according to Leahigh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Parts of the valley supplied by the federal water project have been cut even more severely, to 30 percent of their normal allotment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmers in the valley generally blame the drop-off in water on the 2007 state Supreme Court decision affirming the need for water to preserve Pacific smelt and other endangered species.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by the \u003ca title=\"Public Policy Institute of California\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>, however, concludes that the roughly 300,000 acre-feet of water diverted to comply with the Endangered Species Act constitutes no more than 15 to 20 percent of the reduced water flow to the valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, the overall pool of water is shrinking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s less water coming into the system,” said \u003ca title=\"Francis Chung bio\" href=\"http://baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/modeling/keypersonnel.cfm\" target=\"_blank\">Francis Chung\u003c/a>, chief of the Modeling Support Branch for the Department of Water Resources. “The water that used to exist is now coming earlier in the year. So there’s less water to distribute (to the valley) during the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rising sea levels threaten water supply\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another growing problem has been rising sea levels associated with climate change. The San Francisco Bay, according to a recent assessment by the \u003ca title=\"National Research Council\" href=\"http://nationalacademies.org/nrc/\" target=\"_blank\">National Research Council\u003c/a>, is projected to rise by as much as 18 inches, and potentially triple that by the end of the century. Those inches translate into waves of new salt sources lapping into the delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Less water channeled into the delta from the Sierra means less available freshwater to dilute the onrush of salt, which has been pushing steadily eastward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For each foot in sea level, 200,000 acre-feet of freshwater, known as “carriage water,” is needed to hold the line on the saltwater. That amounts to one-fifth the volume of Folsom Lake each year, according to Chung, and the diversions will only increase as the sea level rises.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by UC Davis estimates that if salinity continues to rise at the current rate, by 2030, the financial costs to the Central Valley could be huge: as much as $1 billion to $1.5 billion a year in decreased agricultural activity, amounting to some 27,000 to 53,000 jobs lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45064\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45064\" title=\"Almond leaves burned by salt\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Salt in the groundwater burns almond leaves and reduces a tree's yield. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the next 40 years, salinity is expected to increase by 4 to 26 percent, depending on the time of year, at the two water-pumping stations outside of Tracy. From there, most of the water destined for the valley is sent southward, according to a study by the Public Policy Institute of California and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Watershed Sciences\" href=\"http://watershed.ucdavis.edu/front?destination=node/116\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Ellen Hanak bio\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/bio.asp?i=72\" target=\"_blank\">Ellen Hanak\u003c/a>, senior policy fellow at the institute, explained that inside the delta, the network of waterways helps to dilute the salt content. But in the Central Valley, she said, there’s not enough freshwater to reduce the salt’s impact. That’s partly the result of farmers using more targeted irrigation to reduce waste; they no longer have the excess spillover to mix with the salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no drainage,” she said. “They can’t get rid of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As freshwater supplies decrease, the decisions over how to use it are likely to become even more difficult.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water used to push the ocean back is water not used for agriculture,” said Tara Smith, an analyst and water modeling expert for the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the liquid barricade needed to hold back the ocean is drawn from a dwindling amount of freshwater. The reduction in allocations issued by the water board in February means that more water is necessary to hold back the advancing Pacific Ocean and push the saltwater intrusion westward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have to keep reducing the volume of exports from the delta because of the increased volume needed of carriage water,” said Chung at the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003cbr>\nDaniel Cozad, executive director, Central Valley Salinity Coalition \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, 40 railroad cars’ worth of salt – about 500,000 tons a year – flow daily out of the delta into the fields of the Central Valley. That adds extra salt to valley soils already made salty by the intensive pumping of groundwater from what millions of years ago was the ocean floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Daniel Cozad, executive director of the \u003ca title=\"Central Valley Salinity Coalition\" href=\"http://cvsalinity.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Central Valley Salinity Coalition\u003c/a>, a group of local farmers, businessmen and government officials, said some farmers in the western valley are being forced to adapt by switching from salt-sensitive crops like strawberries and avocados to less sensitive – and less profitable – crops like alfalfa and wheat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately,” Cozad said, “the higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was edited by Robert Salladay and copy edited by Nikki Frick and Christine Lee. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was produced by the nonprofit \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, the country’s largest investigative reporting team, in collaboration with KQED. Mark Schapiro can be reached at \u003ca href=\"mailto:mschapiro@cironline.org\">mschapiro@cironline.org\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"disqusTitle": "West Coast a Test Bed for Ocean Acidification",
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"content": "\u003cp>This week, scientists from around the world are \u003ca href=\"http://www.highco2-iii.org/main.cfm?cid=2259\">meeting\u003c/a> in Monterey to discuss what they call the “other” climate change problem: the \u003ca href=\"http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F\">oceans are becoming more acidic\u003c/a>. It happens as oceans absorb the carbon dioxide we add to the air through burning fossil fuels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists say it can be bad news for ocean animals with shells like oysters, mussels and others that are key to the marine food web. How bad? Some scientists are hoping that ocean conditions off the California coast will help them find out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Oyster Farms Face Impacts\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You don’t have to go far to see the impacts that acidification is already having. At \u003ca href=\"http://hogislandoysters.com/\">Hog Island Oyster Company\u003c/a>, just outside Point Reyes, co-owner Terry Sawyer is seeing the effects in his supply chain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The oysters grow up in big, mesh bags that sit out in Tomales Bay, but Sawyer gets the oysters when they’re small, “the size of your little fingernail,” he says. He orders them from hatcheries in Oregon and Washington.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A few years ago, Sawyer started getting calls from those suppliers. They couldn’t fill his orders.\u003cbr>\n“They would have tens of thousands of gallons of tanks that were absolutely full of larvae. They would have the entire system die or crash,” says Sawyer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44938\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/oysters.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-44938\" title=\"Oysters\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/oysters.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"198\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pile of oysters being sorted at Hog Island Oyster Farm.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The hatcheries were \u003ca href=\"http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/12/study-links-raised-carbon-dioxide-levels-to-oyster-die-offs/\">filling their tanks with seawater\u003c/a> that was becoming more acidic. Scientists say the oceans are 30 percent more acidic since the start of the Industrial Revolution.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The more acidic the water, the harder it is for animals like oysters to build their shells. Their shells are weaker and they grow more slowly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sawyer is raising his own oyster larvae now so he’ll have a more predictable supply. But he says there’s no question that climate change is affecting his bottom line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We don’t know if we’re going to be able to survive the very real trending that is going on out there,\" he says. It’s a trend that could affect the entire food web.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Acidification on the California Coast\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You can see here, this is a mussel bed that’s made up of lots of California mussels,” says Eric Sanford, an ecologist with UC Davis’s Bodega Marine Lab.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The rocky point we’re standing on is covered in tightly packed, purplish mussels – what he calls the “foundation species” of the California coast. “One that really defines the whole ecosystem, sort of the way corals define a coral reef,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mussels are a key part of the food web and so are a lot of animals with shells, says oceanographer Tessa Hill. “Probably most people like the fact that we have things like whales and salmon off along our coast. Those organisms are likely to be impacted because their food source will be impacted,” Hill says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The big question is: will animals with shells be able to adapt to a more acidic future – where, in a hundred years, the oceans could be more than twice as acidic?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44940\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sanford.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-44940\" title=\"SONY DSC\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sanford.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Eric Sanford at a mussel bed near Bodega Marine Lab.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>These California mussels could help answer that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re facing the most acidic water that you’d see in the open ocean today,” says Hill.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Hill explains, acidic water from the deep ocean rises to the surface on the West Coast in the spring and summer, when the wind is blowing. This upwelling makes the waters off California some of the most acidic in the world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As part of \u003ca href=\"http://omegas.science.oregonstate.edu/?q=node/3\">OMEGAS\u003c/a>, a new project linking universities up and down the West Coast, researchers are asking: if organisms here have been blasted with more acidic water for generations, have they adapted to handle it?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Inside their lab, Hill and Sanford show me jars full of young mussels, almost too small to see. Each jar is from a different part of the West Coast from Oregon to Santa Barbara. They’re being grown in water that reflects conditions in 2100, says Eric Sanford.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The issue we’re looking at is whether there might be genetic differences among different populations along the coast in their ability to cope with ocean acidification,” he says.\u003cbr>\n\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\nFinding Genetic Tools\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found they have lucky genes,” says Steve Palumbi, biology professor at Stanford University who is also working on the OMEGAS project. He studied populations of another shelled animal on the West Coast - sea urchins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You can think of genes like a set of tools, he says. “If you happen to have bad plumbing, you will have more plumbing tools in your house.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There have been lots of plumbing problems on the West Coast, so to speak, in the form of acidic water. “And so all these populations, urchins anyway, have had to get the toolset to deal with it,” says Palumbi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a paper still in review, Palumbi says they found a segment of the urchin population that had around 100 genes that make them better adapted to more acidic water. That makes them more likely to survive and reproduce. (\u003ca href=\"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDcDqULXDOE&feature=share&list=UUbf-eynjiFxUKGLFMt8KNoQ\">Check out this microdoc video\u003c/a> for more on their research).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is good news,” he says, “because these organisms have the capacity to deal with more acidification. But it’s not good news forever because all it does is give us a little breathing room. The trouble is right now, the rate at which the ocean is acidifying is way faster than it ever has before.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Organisms will evolve, he says, but probably not fast enough to keep up. In the meantime, Palumbi and other scientists are mapping where the genetically resilient mussels and urchins are on the West Coast, so policymakers can look at protecting them.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>This week, scientists from around the world are \u003ca href=\"http://www.highco2-iii.org/main.cfm?cid=2259\">meeting\u003c/a> in Monterey to discuss what they call the “other” climate change problem: the \u003ca href=\"http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F\">oceans are becoming more acidic\u003c/a>. It happens as oceans absorb the carbon dioxide we add to the air through burning fossil fuels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists say it can be bad news for ocean animals with shells like oysters, mussels and others that are key to the marine food web. How bad? Some scientists are hoping that ocean conditions off the California coast will help them find out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Oyster Farms Face Impacts\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You don’t have to go far to see the impacts that acidification is already having. At \u003ca href=\"http://hogislandoysters.com/\">Hog Island Oyster Company\u003c/a>, just outside Point Reyes, co-owner Terry Sawyer is seeing the effects in his supply chain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The oysters grow up in big, mesh bags that sit out in Tomales Bay, but Sawyer gets the oysters when they’re small, “the size of your little fingernail,” he says. He orders them from hatcheries in Oregon and Washington.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A few years ago, Sawyer started getting calls from those suppliers. They couldn’t fill his orders.\u003cbr>\n“They would have tens of thousands of gallons of tanks that were absolutely full of larvae. They would have the entire system die or crash,” says Sawyer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44938\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/oysters.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-44938\" title=\"Oysters\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/oysters.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"198\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pile of oysters being sorted at Hog Island Oyster Farm.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The hatcheries were \u003ca href=\"http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/12/study-links-raised-carbon-dioxide-levels-to-oyster-die-offs/\">filling their tanks with seawater\u003c/a> that was becoming more acidic. Scientists say the oceans are 30 percent more acidic since the start of the Industrial Revolution.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The more acidic the water, the harder it is for animals like oysters to build their shells. Their shells are weaker and they grow more slowly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sawyer is raising his own oyster larvae now so he’ll have a more predictable supply. But he says there’s no question that climate change is affecting his bottom line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We don’t know if we’re going to be able to survive the very real trending that is going on out there,\" he says. It’s a trend that could affect the entire food web.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Acidification on the California Coast\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You can see here, this is a mussel bed that’s made up of lots of California mussels,” says Eric Sanford, an ecologist with UC Davis’s Bodega Marine Lab.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The rocky point we’re standing on is covered in tightly packed, purplish mussels – what he calls the “foundation species” of the California coast. “One that really defines the whole ecosystem, sort of the way corals define a coral reef,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mussels are a key part of the food web and so are a lot of animals with shells, says oceanographer Tessa Hill. “Probably most people like the fact that we have things like whales and salmon off along our coast. Those organisms are likely to be impacted because their food source will be impacted,” Hill says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The big question is: will animals with shells be able to adapt to a more acidic future – where, in a hundred years, the oceans could be more than twice as acidic?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_44940\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sanford.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-44940\" title=\"SONY DSC\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sanford.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Eric Sanford at a mussel bed near Bodega Marine Lab.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>These California mussels could help answer that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re facing the most acidic water that you’d see in the open ocean today,” says Hill.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Hill explains, acidic water from the deep ocean rises to the surface on the West Coast in the spring and summer, when the wind is blowing. This upwelling makes the waters off California some of the most acidic in the world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As part of \u003ca href=\"http://omegas.science.oregonstate.edu/?q=node/3\">OMEGAS\u003c/a>, a new project linking universities up and down the West Coast, researchers are asking: if organisms here have been blasted with more acidic water for generations, have they adapted to handle it?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Inside their lab, Hill and Sanford show me jars full of young mussels, almost too small to see. Each jar is from a different part of the West Coast from Oregon to Santa Barbara. They’re being grown in water that reflects conditions in 2100, says Eric Sanford.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The issue we’re looking at is whether there might be genetic differences among different populations along the coast in their ability to cope with ocean acidification,” he says.\u003cbr>\n\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\nFinding Genetic Tools\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found they have lucky genes,” says Steve Palumbi, biology professor at Stanford University who is also working on the OMEGAS project. He studied populations of another shelled animal on the West Coast - sea urchins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You can think of genes like a set of tools, he says. “If you happen to have bad plumbing, you will have more plumbing tools in your house.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There have been lots of plumbing problems on the West Coast, so to speak, in the form of acidic water. “And so all these populations, urchins anyway, have had to get the toolset to deal with it,” says Palumbi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a paper still in review, Palumbi says they found a segment of the urchin population that had around 100 genes that make them better adapted to more acidic water. That makes them more likely to survive and reproduce. (\u003ca href=\"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDcDqULXDOE&feature=share&list=UUbf-eynjiFxUKGLFMt8KNoQ\">Check out this microdoc video\u003c/a> for more on their research).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is good news,” he says, “because these organisms have the capacity to deal with more acidification. But it’s not good news forever because all it does is give us a little breathing room. The trouble is right now, the rate at which the ocean is acidifying is way faster than it ever has before.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Organisms will evolve, he says, but probably not fast enough to keep up. In the meantime, Palumbi and other scientists are mapping where the genetically resilient mussels and urchins are on the West Coast, so policymakers can look at protecting them.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"disqusTitle": "The Heat is On For California Wines",
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"content": "\u003cp>You've probably heard of the wines that made Napa and Sonoma famous, like Cabernet Sauvignon or Chardonnay. But what about \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negroamaro\">Negroamaro\u003c/a> or \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nero_d%27Avola\">Nero d'Avola\u003c/a>?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They're wine grapes that are well-adapted to hotter climates – the kind of conditions that California may be facing as the climate continues to warm. But for wineries that have staked their reputations on certain wines, adapting to climate change could be a tough sell.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Talk to any wine lover in California and they'll tell you how lucky they are to live in such rich wine-producing region. Take the recent meeting of the San Francisco Wine Lovers Group at Toast wine bar in Oakland, where the favorites are California Pinot Noir, Russian River Zinfandel, and Napa Cabernet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, the type of grape – or varietal - is how most of us think about wine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"That's the big problem,\" says Andy Walker, a grape breeder in \u003ca href=\"http://wineserver.ucdavis.edu/\">Viticulture and Enology\u003c/a> at the University of California-Davis. \"We've spent the last 100 years emphasizing varieties and we've really marketed those names very effectively.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Walker is strolling through UC Davis's test vineyard, where hundreds of different wine grapes from around the world are grown. The vast majority are unknown to consumers, because most wineries focus on only a handful of grapes. \"Chardonnay, cabernet, merlot, pinot noir – those would make up probably a large percentage,\" he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those are all French varieties, mostly suited for cool climates. California is warm by comparison and thanks to climate change, it's expected to get a lot warmer. Extreme heat can be the enemy of good wine. \"It destroys acidity primarily and it changes color and aromatics,\" says Walker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to \u003ca href=\"http://news.stanford.edu/news/2011/june/wines-global-warming-063011.html\">a recent study\u003c/a> from Stanford University, about two degrees of warming could reduce California's premium wine-growing land by 30 to 50 percent. That could happen as soon as 2040. Water supply is also expected to be an issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"I think the interesting thing for me as a breeder is to take advantage of this and say, OK, here's a chance now to change thought and let's actually readapt varieties to California,\" he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22840\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 253px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/08/P1010793.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-22840\" title=\"UC Davis \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/08/P1010793-253x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"253\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Andy Walker walks through UC Davis's test vineyard.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But in many circles, grape breeding is a dirty term, according to Walker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Viticulture is the most backward form of horticulture that exists. We use these varieties that haven't been changed for decades, for millennia in some cases. And it really doesn't make any sense.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem starts in today's vineyards. If you look at rows of Pinot Noir vines, you aren't just looking at the original varietal. You're looking at clones. That's because vines are grown from a branch that's taken off an existing plant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Pinot noir is being propagated year after year after year. This essentially means that grapes have not been having sex very much,\" says Sean Myles , a geneticist at the Nova Scotia Agricultural College.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He says breeding is key for other crops, since farmers need seeds to plant every year. Wine grapes miss this opportunity to develop adaptability and disease resistance, since vines don't grow from seeds\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"That means that we're not allowing the genetic material to be shuffled anymore. That genetic material is now standing still in time. And while the pathogens are evolving, the pinot noir is not,\" says Myles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Andy Walker says there's plenty of genetic diversity out there for breeding, if you wanted to make today's varieties more heat tolerant or drought resistant. But there's a very big problem. Once your breed your pinot noir with something else, you can't call it pinot noir anymore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The last decision that hardest. Can we market this variety? We know it produces exceptional wine. We know the quality is better. But the next step is can we actually market it,\" says Walker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That's a deal breaker for many vineyards, who think consumers won't buy varieties they don't recognize. Walker says looking ahead to climate change, there are already varieties out there today from Italy and Spain that would do well in a warmer California. \"We could produce Barbera instead, or Negroamaro or Nero d'Avola from southern Italy and we'd be far better ahead.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These lush reds are popular in Italy but not so well known to Californians. Walker says it'll come down to marketing. \"I don't think it's the consumer that's gonna make the shift. They have to be directed.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"I think it's really a pull from consumers,\" says Nick Dokoozlian, a Vice President at \u003ca href=\"http://gallo.com/\">E & J Gallo Winery\u003c/a>, the largest family-owned winery in the US. \"In most cases, we're responding to consumer demand for a cultivar.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dokoozlian says Gallo has been testing new wine varieties throughout its vineyards and has found some promising grapes. \"The problem is we can't necessarily sell those varieties. Consumers aren't aware of them. The marketing aspect of climate change and the adaptation to climate change, really, the hurdles on the marketing side are much, much more significant.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since vineyards can last up to 30 years, he says switching varieties is a major financial gamble. \"The wine business is an extremely capital intensive business. The financial risk of planting the wrong variety in the wrong place is pretty significant.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, given the temperature and water supply changes projected for California, Dokoozlian sees the market shifting eventually. \"I'm looking forward to having world-class California Nero d'Avola soon.\"\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "You’ve probably heard of the wines that made Napa and Sonoma famous, like Cabernet Sauvignon or Chardonnay. But what about Negroamaro or Nero d’Avola? They’re wine grapes that are well-adapted to hotter temperatures -- the kind of conditions that California may be facing as the climate continues to warm. ",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>You've probably heard of the wines that made Napa and Sonoma famous, like Cabernet Sauvignon or Chardonnay. But what about \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negroamaro\">Negroamaro\u003c/a> or \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nero_d%27Avola\">Nero d'Avola\u003c/a>?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They're wine grapes that are well-adapted to hotter climates – the kind of conditions that California may be facing as the climate continues to warm. But for wineries that have staked their reputations on certain wines, adapting to climate change could be a tough sell.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Talk to any wine lover in California and they'll tell you how lucky they are to live in such rich wine-producing region. Take the recent meeting of the San Francisco Wine Lovers Group at Toast wine bar in Oakland, where the favorites are California Pinot Noir, Russian River Zinfandel, and Napa Cabernet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, the type of grape – or varietal - is how most of us think about wine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"That's the big problem,\" says Andy Walker, a grape breeder in \u003ca href=\"http://wineserver.ucdavis.edu/\">Viticulture and Enology\u003c/a> at the University of California-Davis. \"We've spent the last 100 years emphasizing varieties and we've really marketed those names very effectively.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Walker is strolling through UC Davis's test vineyard, where hundreds of different wine grapes from around the world are grown. The vast majority are unknown to consumers, because most wineries focus on only a handful of grapes. \"Chardonnay, cabernet, merlot, pinot noir – those would make up probably a large percentage,\" he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those are all French varieties, mostly suited for cool climates. California is warm by comparison and thanks to climate change, it's expected to get a lot warmer. Extreme heat can be the enemy of good wine. \"It destroys acidity primarily and it changes color and aromatics,\" says Walker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to \u003ca href=\"http://news.stanford.edu/news/2011/june/wines-global-warming-063011.html\">a recent study\u003c/a> from Stanford University, about two degrees of warming could reduce California's premium wine-growing land by 30 to 50 percent. That could happen as soon as 2040. Water supply is also expected to be an issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"I think the interesting thing for me as a breeder is to take advantage of this and say, OK, here's a chance now to change thought and let's actually readapt varieties to California,\" he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22840\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 253px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/08/P1010793.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-22840\" title=\"UC Davis \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/08/P1010793-253x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"253\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Andy Walker walks through UC Davis's test vineyard.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But in many circles, grape breeding is a dirty term, according to Walker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Viticulture is the most backward form of horticulture that exists. We use these varieties that haven't been changed for decades, for millennia in some cases. And it really doesn't make any sense.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem starts in today's vineyards. If you look at rows of Pinot Noir vines, you aren't just looking at the original varietal. You're looking at clones. That's because vines are grown from a branch that's taken off an existing plant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Pinot noir is being propagated year after year after year. This essentially means that grapes have not been having sex very much,\" says Sean Myles , a geneticist at the Nova Scotia Agricultural College.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He says breeding is key for other crops, since farmers need seeds to plant every year. Wine grapes miss this opportunity to develop adaptability and disease resistance, since vines don't grow from seeds\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"That means that we're not allowing the genetic material to be shuffled anymore. That genetic material is now standing still in time. And while the pathogens are evolving, the pinot noir is not,\" says Myles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Andy Walker says there's plenty of genetic diversity out there for breeding, if you wanted to make today's varieties more heat tolerant or drought resistant. But there's a very big problem. Once your breed your pinot noir with something else, you can't call it pinot noir anymore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The last decision that hardest. Can we market this variety? We know it produces exceptional wine. We know the quality is better. But the next step is can we actually market it,\" says Walker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That's a deal breaker for many vineyards, who think consumers won't buy varieties they don't recognize. Walker says looking ahead to climate change, there are already varieties out there today from Italy and Spain that would do well in a warmer California. \"We could produce Barbera instead, or Negroamaro or Nero d'Avola from southern Italy and we'd be far better ahead.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These lush reds are popular in Italy but not so well known to Californians. Walker says it'll come down to marketing. \"I don't think it's the consumer that's gonna make the shift. They have to be directed.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"I think it's really a pull from consumers,\" says Nick Dokoozlian, a Vice President at \u003ca href=\"http://gallo.com/\">E & J Gallo Winery\u003c/a>, the largest family-owned winery in the US. \"In most cases, we're responding to consumer demand for a cultivar.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dokoozlian says Gallo has been testing new wine varieties throughout its vineyards and has found some promising grapes. \"The problem is we can't necessarily sell those varieties. Consumers aren't aware of them. The marketing aspect of climate change and the adaptation to climate change, really, the hurdles on the marketing side are much, much more significant.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since vineyards can last up to 30 years, he says switching varieties is a major financial gamble. \"The wine business is an extremely capital intensive business. The financial risk of planting the wrong variety in the wrong place is pretty significant.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, given the temperature and water supply changes projected for California, Dokoozlian sees the market shifting eventually. \"I'm looking forward to having world-class California Nero d'Avola soon.\"\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"disqusTitle": "In Defense of Science: An Interview with NCSE’s Eugenie Scott",
"title": "In Defense of Science: An Interview with NCSE’s Eugenie Scott",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_42894\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/08/22/in-defense-of-science-an-interview-with-ncse%e2%80%99s-eugenie-scott/p1020007-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-42894\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-42894\" title=\"Eugenie Scott\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/08/genie2-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"Eugenie Scott\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Eugenie Scott, president of the Bay Area Skeptics and executive director of the National Center for Science Education. A physical anthropologist by training, Scott has spent the past three decades defending sound science and the teaching of evolution in schools. (Photo: Liza Gross)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A few weeks ago \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/08/08/doubt-and-denialism-vaccine-myths-persist-in-the-face-of-science/\">I wrote about what happens\u003c/a> when people respond to well-established science with disbelief or mistrust. As I noted, this is an occupational risk for researchers who work on vaccines (and journalists who write about them), which is why I told a cautionary tale about rejecting science in the face of super-bugs. The piece resonated with readers, but not in the way I’d hoped. Of nearly 220 comments, the vast majority opposed vaccination, for various reasons, rejecting the science.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As I considered how to respond, I wondered how science educators might deal with the chasm between scientific facts and public opinion. Then it struck me: who better to consider rebukes of mainstream science than the Bay Area’s own \u003ca href=\"http://ncse.com/evolution/eugenie-scott-wins-stephen-jay-gould-prize\">Eugenie Scott\u003c/a>?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of America’s most revered science guardians, Scott has long taught rational thought and “science as a way of knowing” as president of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.baskeptics.org/about\">Bay Area Skeptics \u003c/a>and as executive director of the Oakland-based \u003ca href=\"http://ncse.com/about\">National Center for Science Education\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Best-known for defending the teaching of evolution in public schools, Scott led NCSE into the climate wars in January, when the center launched its \u003ca href=\"http://ncse.com/about\">climate change education initiative\u003c/a> to help educators under attack for teaching students about climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I spoke with Scott last week about the challenges of communicating science when evidence runs headlong into ideology, belief, and denial.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> One thing I noticed in some of the comments last week was a tendency to glom onto rare events, like adverse reactions to vaccines, to reject an entire body of science. NCSE hasn’t taken on the anti-vaccination issue, but do you see something similar with those who reject evolution and climate change?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> This kind of anomaly mongering is something that we’ve dealt with for decades with evolution. We’re starting to learn more about it with climate change. One such anomaly is the fact that 1998 was an unusually warm year. So if you measure from 1998 to 2008--the line goes down--cooling has happened, therefore global warming is not taking place. Now, this is exactly parallel to the kind of anomaly mongering you get with creationism. Where they’ll point to the live mollusk that carbon 14 dating indicated had been dead for 3,000 years, and say, therefore radioisotopic dating is not valid, therefore the Earth is young, therefore, evolution didn’t take place. It’s a logical series of arguments in one sense except the premises are all wrong because these are anomalies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_42909\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 267px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/08/22/in-defense-of-science-an-interview-with-ncse%e2%80%99s-eugenie-scott/editorial_cartoon_depicting_charles_darwin_as_an_ape_1871/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-42909\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-42909\" title=\"Editorial_cartoon_depicting_Charles_Darwin_as_an_ape_(1871)\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/08/Editorial_cartoon_depicting_Charles_Darwin_as_an_ape_1871-267x360.jpg\" alt=\"Darwin as ape\" width=\"267\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This satirical cartoon depicting Charles Darwin as an ape, published in 1871, following the publication of Darwin's \"The Descent of Man,\" typified reactions of those who rejected Darwin's contention that humans and apes shared common ancestry.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the case of the 1998 year, that’s cherry picking the data in a most egregious fashion, because if you pick just about any other year, you’ll find that the climate is getting warmer. And with the living mollusk, \u003ca href=\"http://www.bcin.ca/Interface/openbcin.cgi?submit=submit&Chinkey=64152\">that article was not an attack upon radioisotopic dating\u003c/a>, but a methodology article showing the difference between carbon absorption in lacustrine [lake] versus riverine environments and how you must consider the source of your sample.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You find the same thing with people who object to vaccines. They’ll pick some anomalous observation and say, “See, see, we told you vaccines are dangerous,” or “We told you they’re ineffective,” or something along those lines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To understand this phenomenon you really have to dig deeper into what is motivating people. First of all, I’d like to distinguish between the people who lead these movements versus the people who follow them. They’re not the ones generating the vaccine anomaly, so to speak, but they’ve read this literature and they’re parroting what they’ve heard. And your heart goes out to them. They’re concerned about their children. They don’t want their kids to get sick. But as many admit, they don’t fully understand the science. And your decisions are obviously going to be influenced by your emotions. We’re human beings, not automatons. But you need to temper them with good information, empirical information, dare I say scientific information, in order to make the best decisions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> Another parallel with the evolution and climate change denial narrative, which seems to relate to motivation, is the changing rationale for doubting the science. The reasons change but the doubt doesn’t, as if doubt itself is a motivation. How do you counter doubt with science?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> Well, I think one of the things to remember is that, like Gaul [\u003ca href=\"http://classics.mit.edu/Caesar/gallic.1.1.html\">Julius Caesar’s Gallic conquest\u003c/a>], the public is divided into three parts. You have the people who are perfectly okay with vaccines. You have the people who are really, really concerned about vaccines, and you have the vast majority of Americans who are in the middle. They haven’t thought about it very much. They are reachable with information.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think we are unwise as scientists or as people who want to help the public understand science to ignore motivation. But we have to remember that different audiences are open to a different kinds of information. And I just can’t imagine that knowledge and information and the empirical evidence and the results of good studies are immaterial, especially for that middle group. They may be less likely to persuade the people in the category of, “I’ve got my fingers stuck in my ears and I don’t want to listen,” who have a really strong emotional, ideological investment in a position.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>NCSE has always aimed at that big middle. In the case of evolution, the people who are not conservative Christians, who don’t have a religious or ideological reason to object to evolution but who just don’t know very much about it and who are reachable. I think with vaccines that should be the target for those of us who want to improve the understanding of vaccines and help communicate the importance of why you need to vaccinate your child.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> How do you reach the people in the middle when organized groups routinely perpetuate the myths? For a nonscientist it’s very difficult to figure out what to think, especially when the so-called “debates” on these issues become so emotionally charged. How do you cut through the emotions to help people think rationally?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_42942\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 340px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/08/22/in-defense-of-science-an-interview-with-ncse%e2%80%99s-eugenie-scott/misconceptions_flawedtheory/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-42942\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-42942\" title=\"misconceptions_flawedtheory\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/08/misconceptions_flawedtheory-340x360.gif\" alt=\"UCMP evolution creationism cartoon\" width=\"340\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">(Credit: University of California Museum of Paleontology - Understanding Evolution - www.berkeley.edu)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> Our experience with the evolution and climate change issues has been to recognize that there is a huge amount of dichotomous thinking going on. In the case of evolution you’re either a good guy Christian creationist or you’re a bad guy evolutionist atheist. Those are the packages that many students come into classrooms with. So breaking apart these dichotomies is very important because they’re false dichotomies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With Christians, there’s really a huge range of views about evolution from the most extreme creationists to theistic evolution, which is a position that God created [humans] through evolution. This is actually mainstream Christianity. The most extreme creationism goes from flat-Earthism through geocentrism to young-Earth creationism to old-Earth creationism to theistic evolution.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s also dichotomous thinking going on in terms of climate change that doesn’t have anything to do with the science but with ideologies that prevent people from listening to the science. You’re either a good Republican, anti-global-warming person or you’re a pro-big-government, political liberal, global warming accepter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Finding the people who think ideologically but still accept the science is what we would like to do. Our job at NCSE, at least in global warming and evolution, has been to point out that these dichotomies are false. And to find the people in intermediate positions who hold those ideological positions, find the conservative Christians who accept evolution, find the Republicans who accept global warming, find the libertarians who accept global warming and say, “See, you don’t need to let ideology get in the way to accept the science.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> There seems to be a similar dichotomy with vaccination.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> Well, it’s different. It’s people protecting their kids. That’s the ideology. Go back to motivation. Why is it that people are rejecting vaccination for their kids? It’s obviously an emotional thing, I’m not criticizing that. People love their kids but they’re just hyper, hyper worried. I think that’s probably the motivator. So, when they hear something that is on the other side of standard science, they don’t know whether it’s credible or not but the more things they read they talk themselves into believing it. And, yes, there’s this kind of dichotomous reasoning: \"You’re either a good guy who really loves your kid or you’re a dogmatic scientist trying to cram this stuff down our throats.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The intermediate position that we try to invoke in the other two controversies we deal with is in this case people whose children have autism or perhaps other conditions people ascribe to vaccines but who still support vaccination. They have a credibility with other parents that scientists don’t. A scientist who is a parent can obviously wear two hats, but parents who can speak the language, so to speak, parents who are coping with an autistic child or a child who has suffered one of the diseases that are attributed to vaccinations can have more credibility.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Again, I think we shouldn’t abandon the people who are in that one segment of society who are bound and determined not to accept vaccinations but we should really focus our attention more on keeping people from slipping down into that category. Certainly, that’s what we’ve done with evolution and that’s what we are likely to be doing with climate change as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> Do you think the fact that scientists argue over some aspects of science, like when to get mammograms, feeds into people’s doubts, so they think scientists don’t really know any more than they do?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> I think so much of what people misunderstand about science is this balance between science being very reliable in explaining the natural world yet it’s expandable. It’s the idea of core ideas of science, of frontier ideas, and then fringe ideas. We can expand our understanding of nature by testing new ideas against nature and throwing out the ones that don’t work, tentatively keeping the ones that do work because we need more and more tests before that tentative explanation goes into the core. But once we get that consensus, once scientists have arm wrestled over this new explanation and we’ve tested it up one side and down another and it goes into that core, then we stop arguing about it. This is where we are with evolution and climate change and the basic theory of vaccination—the basic understanding of antigens and antibodies and how you can prevent antigens from causing disease by zapping them with antibodies, which you acquire by getting a vaccination or getting the disease. Which do you want? Believe me, a vaccination is much more benign.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That basic understanding about what makes vaccinations work is a core idea of science. We’re just not debating whether that works or not any more than we’re debating whether living things have common ancestors or the planet’s getting warmer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GXPQzY58bs]\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Eugenie Scott, longtime director of Oakland's National Center for Science Education, has won numerous awards for helping the public understand science and defending evolution, especially against threats to replace it with “creation science” in public schools. She shares her thoughts on the challenges of communicating science in a climate of denial.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_42894\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/08/22/in-defense-of-science-an-interview-with-ncse%e2%80%99s-eugenie-scott/p1020007-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-42894\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-42894\" title=\"Eugenie Scott\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/08/genie2-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"Eugenie Scott\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Eugenie Scott, president of the Bay Area Skeptics and executive director of the National Center for Science Education. A physical anthropologist by training, Scott has spent the past three decades defending sound science and the teaching of evolution in schools. (Photo: Liza Gross)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A few weeks ago \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/08/08/doubt-and-denialism-vaccine-myths-persist-in-the-face-of-science/\">I wrote about what happens\u003c/a> when people respond to well-established science with disbelief or mistrust. As I noted, this is an occupational risk for researchers who work on vaccines (and journalists who write about them), which is why I told a cautionary tale about rejecting science in the face of super-bugs. The piece resonated with readers, but not in the way I’d hoped. Of nearly 220 comments, the vast majority opposed vaccination, for various reasons, rejecting the science.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As I considered how to respond, I wondered how science educators might deal with the chasm between scientific facts and public opinion. Then it struck me: who better to consider rebukes of mainstream science than the Bay Area’s own \u003ca href=\"http://ncse.com/evolution/eugenie-scott-wins-stephen-jay-gould-prize\">Eugenie Scott\u003c/a>?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of America’s most revered science guardians, Scott has long taught rational thought and “science as a way of knowing” as president of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.baskeptics.org/about\">Bay Area Skeptics \u003c/a>and as executive director of the Oakland-based \u003ca href=\"http://ncse.com/about\">National Center for Science Education\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Best-known for defending the teaching of evolution in public schools, Scott led NCSE into the climate wars in January, when the center launched its \u003ca href=\"http://ncse.com/about\">climate change education initiative\u003c/a> to help educators under attack for teaching students about climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I spoke with Scott last week about the challenges of communicating science when evidence runs headlong into ideology, belief, and denial.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> One thing I noticed in some of the comments last week was a tendency to glom onto rare events, like adverse reactions to vaccines, to reject an entire body of science. NCSE hasn’t taken on the anti-vaccination issue, but do you see something similar with those who reject evolution and climate change?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> This kind of anomaly mongering is something that we’ve dealt with for decades with evolution. We’re starting to learn more about it with climate change. One such anomaly is the fact that 1998 was an unusually warm year. So if you measure from 1998 to 2008--the line goes down--cooling has happened, therefore global warming is not taking place. Now, this is exactly parallel to the kind of anomaly mongering you get with creationism. Where they’ll point to the live mollusk that carbon 14 dating indicated had been dead for 3,000 years, and say, therefore radioisotopic dating is not valid, therefore the Earth is young, therefore, evolution didn’t take place. It’s a logical series of arguments in one sense except the premises are all wrong because these are anomalies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_42909\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 267px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/08/22/in-defense-of-science-an-interview-with-ncse%e2%80%99s-eugenie-scott/editorial_cartoon_depicting_charles_darwin_as_an_ape_1871/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-42909\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-42909\" title=\"Editorial_cartoon_depicting_Charles_Darwin_as_an_ape_(1871)\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/08/Editorial_cartoon_depicting_Charles_Darwin_as_an_ape_1871-267x360.jpg\" alt=\"Darwin as ape\" width=\"267\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This satirical cartoon depicting Charles Darwin as an ape, published in 1871, following the publication of Darwin's \"The Descent of Man,\" typified reactions of those who rejected Darwin's contention that humans and apes shared common ancestry.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the case of the 1998 year, that’s cherry picking the data in a most egregious fashion, because if you pick just about any other year, you’ll find that the climate is getting warmer. And with the living mollusk, \u003ca href=\"http://www.bcin.ca/Interface/openbcin.cgi?submit=submit&Chinkey=64152\">that article was not an attack upon radioisotopic dating\u003c/a>, but a methodology article showing the difference between carbon absorption in lacustrine [lake] versus riverine environments and how you must consider the source of your sample.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You find the same thing with people who object to vaccines. They’ll pick some anomalous observation and say, “See, see, we told you vaccines are dangerous,” or “We told you they’re ineffective,” or something along those lines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To understand this phenomenon you really have to dig deeper into what is motivating people. First of all, I’d like to distinguish between the people who lead these movements versus the people who follow them. They’re not the ones generating the vaccine anomaly, so to speak, but they’ve read this literature and they’re parroting what they’ve heard. And your heart goes out to them. They’re concerned about their children. They don’t want their kids to get sick. But as many admit, they don’t fully understand the science. And your decisions are obviously going to be influenced by your emotions. We’re human beings, not automatons. But you need to temper them with good information, empirical information, dare I say scientific information, in order to make the best decisions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> Another parallel with the evolution and climate change denial narrative, which seems to relate to motivation, is the changing rationale for doubting the science. The reasons change but the doubt doesn’t, as if doubt itself is a motivation. How do you counter doubt with science?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> Well, I think one of the things to remember is that, like Gaul [\u003ca href=\"http://classics.mit.edu/Caesar/gallic.1.1.html\">Julius Caesar’s Gallic conquest\u003c/a>], the public is divided into three parts. You have the people who are perfectly okay with vaccines. You have the people who are really, really concerned about vaccines, and you have the vast majority of Americans who are in the middle. They haven’t thought about it very much. They are reachable with information.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think we are unwise as scientists or as people who want to help the public understand science to ignore motivation. But we have to remember that different audiences are open to a different kinds of information. And I just can’t imagine that knowledge and information and the empirical evidence and the results of good studies are immaterial, especially for that middle group. They may be less likely to persuade the people in the category of, “I’ve got my fingers stuck in my ears and I don’t want to listen,” who have a really strong emotional, ideological investment in a position.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>NCSE has always aimed at that big middle. In the case of evolution, the people who are not conservative Christians, who don’t have a religious or ideological reason to object to evolution but who just don’t know very much about it and who are reachable. I think with vaccines that should be the target for those of us who want to improve the understanding of vaccines and help communicate the importance of why you need to vaccinate your child.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> How do you reach the people in the middle when organized groups routinely perpetuate the myths? For a nonscientist it’s very difficult to figure out what to think, especially when the so-called “debates” on these issues become so emotionally charged. How do you cut through the emotions to help people think rationally?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_42942\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 340px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/08/22/in-defense-of-science-an-interview-with-ncse%e2%80%99s-eugenie-scott/misconceptions_flawedtheory/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-42942\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-42942\" title=\"misconceptions_flawedtheory\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/08/misconceptions_flawedtheory-340x360.gif\" alt=\"UCMP evolution creationism cartoon\" width=\"340\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">(Credit: University of California Museum of Paleontology - Understanding Evolution - www.berkeley.edu)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> Our experience with the evolution and climate change issues has been to recognize that there is a huge amount of dichotomous thinking going on. In the case of evolution you’re either a good guy Christian creationist or you’re a bad guy evolutionist atheist. Those are the packages that many students come into classrooms with. So breaking apart these dichotomies is very important because they’re false dichotomies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With Christians, there’s really a huge range of views about evolution from the most extreme creationists to theistic evolution, which is a position that God created [humans] through evolution. This is actually mainstream Christianity. The most extreme creationism goes from flat-Earthism through geocentrism to young-Earth creationism to old-Earth creationism to theistic evolution.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s also dichotomous thinking going on in terms of climate change that doesn’t have anything to do with the science but with ideologies that prevent people from listening to the science. You’re either a good Republican, anti-global-warming person or you’re a pro-big-government, political liberal, global warming accepter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Finding the people who think ideologically but still accept the science is what we would like to do. Our job at NCSE, at least in global warming and evolution, has been to point out that these dichotomies are false. And to find the people in intermediate positions who hold those ideological positions, find the conservative Christians who accept evolution, find the Republicans who accept global warming, find the libertarians who accept global warming and say, “See, you don’t need to let ideology get in the way to accept the science.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> There seems to be a similar dichotomy with vaccination.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> Well, it’s different. It’s people protecting their kids. That’s the ideology. Go back to motivation. Why is it that people are rejecting vaccination for their kids? It’s obviously an emotional thing, I’m not criticizing that. People love their kids but they’re just hyper, hyper worried. I think that’s probably the motivator. So, when they hear something that is on the other side of standard science, they don’t know whether it’s credible or not but the more things they read they talk themselves into believing it. And, yes, there’s this kind of dichotomous reasoning: \"You’re either a good guy who really loves your kid or you’re a dogmatic scientist trying to cram this stuff down our throats.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The intermediate position that we try to invoke in the other two controversies we deal with is in this case people whose children have autism or perhaps other conditions people ascribe to vaccines but who still support vaccination. They have a credibility with other parents that scientists don’t. A scientist who is a parent can obviously wear two hats, but parents who can speak the language, so to speak, parents who are coping with an autistic child or a child who has suffered one of the diseases that are attributed to vaccinations can have more credibility.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Again, I think we shouldn’t abandon the people who are in that one segment of society who are bound and determined not to accept vaccinations but we should really focus our attention more on keeping people from slipping down into that category. Certainly, that’s what we’ve done with evolution and that’s what we are likely to be doing with climate change as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gross:\u003c/strong> Do you think the fact that scientists argue over some aspects of science, like when to get mammograms, feeds into people’s doubts, so they think scientists don’t really know any more than they do?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Scott:\u003c/strong> I think so much of what people misunderstand about science is this balance between science being very reliable in explaining the natural world yet it’s expandable. It’s the idea of core ideas of science, of frontier ideas, and then fringe ideas. We can expand our understanding of nature by testing new ideas against nature and throwing out the ones that don’t work, tentatively keeping the ones that do work because we need more and more tests before that tentative explanation goes into the core. But once we get that consensus, once scientists have arm wrestled over this new explanation and we’ve tested it up one side and down another and it goes into that core, then we stop arguing about it. This is where we are with evolution and climate change and the basic theory of vaccination—the basic understanding of antigens and antibodies and how you can prevent antigens from causing disease by zapping them with antibodies, which you acquire by getting a vaccination or getting the disease. Which do you want? Believe me, a vaccination is much more benign.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That basic understanding about what makes vaccinations work is a core idea of science. We’re just not debating whether that works or not any more than we’re debating whether living things have common ancestors or the planet’s getting warmer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"disqusTitle": "Arrow Gobies, Ghost Shrimp and Bubble Snails: Teachers Explore the Unique Biodiversity of San Francisco Bay",
"title": "Arrow Gobies, Ghost Shrimp and Bubble Snails: Teachers Explore the Unique Biodiversity of San Francisco Bay",
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"content": "\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_41094\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 480px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/07/20/arrow-gobies-ghost-shrimp-and-bubble-snails-teachers-explore-the-unique-biodiversity-of-san-francisco-bay/hip-waders/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-41094\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-41094\" title=\"Hip waders\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/07/Hip-waders-480x360.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Teachers gear up in hip waders to explore the Bay\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>How do teachers spend their time off? Last week they donned hip wader boots, dragged a seine net, slogged in bay mud and paddled canoes on San Leandro Bay to learn about about our amazing bay in this year's San Francisco Bay Area Institute: \"\u003ca href=\"http://www.smcoe.k12.ca.us/InstructionalServicesDivisionISD/CurriculumServices/stem/Documents/2012-Bay%20Institute.pdf\">California’s Water Resources and Climate Change\u003c/a>.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s what their week of science adventures looked like. We gathered the first day at the \u003ca title=\"EBRPD Crab Cove\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/vc/crab_cove\" target=\"_blank\">Crab Cove Visitor Center\u003c/a>. The \u003ca title=\"Bay Lab video\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/web-extra-exploring-the-bay-lab/\" target=\"_blank\">Bay Lab\u003c/a> program introduced them to San Francisco Bay ecology. Dragging a seine net through the eel grass beds and mudflats they sampled the fauna. We found arrow gobies, juvenile fish, bubble snails, New Zealand sea snot mollusks, and snail egg masses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_41095\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 337px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/07/20/arrow-gobies-ghost-shrimp-and-bubble-snails-teachers-explore-the-unique-biodiversity-of-san-francisco-bay/seine-net/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-41095\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-41095\" title=\"Seine Net\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/07/Seine-Net-337x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"337\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seine net sampling of near shore animals at Crown Beach\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>They were identified, tallied and returned to the bay. Teachers also practiced sampling techniques and data analysis for estimating what animals might live in the Bay mudflats. With quadrats in hand they assessed the surface for animal evidence such as ghost shrimp holes, lug worm castings and egg masses, and various holes indicating animal homes. Then they took some mud samples back to the lab and used a sieve and microscopes for further identification of amphipods, worms, gem clams, and more. Armed with this raw data, they then broke up into project groups to work on developing a hypothesis related to San Francisco Bay, climate change and water resources and planned their methods for testing it. They had to present their findings on the final day of class.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The following days we explored Native American life at \u003ca title=\"EBRPD Coyote Hills\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/coyote_hills\" target=\"_blank\">Coyote Hills\u003c/a> along with a freshwater marsh and salt ponds being restored to mudflats. We journeyed on \u003ca title=\"EBRPD MLK, Jr. Regional Shoreline\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/martinlking\" target=\"_blank\">San Leandro Bay\u003c/a> in Oakland via canoes the teachers paddled. From the boats they sampled the mix of fresh and salt water and observed human impacts around the Bay from the surrounding watersheds. They then took a ferry to explore \u003ca title=\"CA State Parks - Angel Island\" href=\"http://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=468\" target=\"_blank\">Angel Island\u003c/a> for a perspective on the Bay-Delta interface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_41097\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 337px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/07/20/arrow-gobies-ghost-shrimp-and-bubble-snails-teachers-explore-the-unique-biodiversity-of-san-francisco-bay/nature-journaling-ch-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-41097\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-41097\" title=\"Nature Journaling CH\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/07/Nature-Journaling-CH1-337x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"337\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A quiet moment of reflection during Nature Journaling at Coyote Hills\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The finale of the week was the presentation of their group projects. One group hypothesized about potential impacts of sea level rise and discovered areas in their travels over the week that could potentially be lost with a one-meter rise in sea level. The lost areas included both marshes and mudflats along with buildings, trails, and parking lots. Other groups investigated gull behavior, and others compared the natural systems in the different field trip locations. All were well done and a great wrap-up of the week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’ve been partnering to offer a San Francisco Bay Institute for teachers for five of the last six years. This year nineteen teachers spent a week of their summer vacations with us, getting to know each other and having a great time outdoors. Over the last six years we’ve had the privilege to work with over 100 teachers. They in turn are reaching our next generation of students with a better understanding of this amazing body of water we share and ideas for how to make learning about science exciting and relevant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Additional Links:\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nPartnering agencies for the San Francisco Bay Institute: \u003ca title=\"California Institute for Biodiversity website\" href=\"http://www.calalive.org/\" target=\"_blank\">California Institute for Biodiversity\u003c/a>, \u003ca title=\"East Bay Regional Parks\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/activities/educators\" target=\"_blank\">East Bay Regional Park District\u003c/a> and \u003ca title=\"California State Parks - School Programs\" href=\"http://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=21696\" target=\"_blank\">California State Parks\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Encyclopedia Of Life: \u003ca title=\"Encyclopedia of Life - Crab Cove Species list\" href=\"http://eol.org/collections/10307\" target=\"_blank\">Crab Cove Species List\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_41094\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 480px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/07/20/arrow-gobies-ghost-shrimp-and-bubble-snails-teachers-explore-the-unique-biodiversity-of-san-francisco-bay/hip-waders/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-41094\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-41094\" title=\"Hip waders\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/07/Hip-waders-480x360.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Teachers gear up in hip waders to explore the Bay\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>How do teachers spend their time off? Last week they donned hip wader boots, dragged a seine net, slogged in bay mud and paddled canoes on San Leandro Bay to learn about about our amazing bay in this year's San Francisco Bay Area Institute: \"\u003ca href=\"http://www.smcoe.k12.ca.us/InstructionalServicesDivisionISD/CurriculumServices/stem/Documents/2012-Bay%20Institute.pdf\">California’s Water Resources and Climate Change\u003c/a>.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s what their week of science adventures looked like. We gathered the first day at the \u003ca title=\"EBRPD Crab Cove\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/vc/crab_cove\" target=\"_blank\">Crab Cove Visitor Center\u003c/a>. The \u003ca title=\"Bay Lab video\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/web-extra-exploring-the-bay-lab/\" target=\"_blank\">Bay Lab\u003c/a> program introduced them to San Francisco Bay ecology. Dragging a seine net through the eel grass beds and mudflats they sampled the fauna. We found arrow gobies, juvenile fish, bubble snails, New Zealand sea snot mollusks, and snail egg masses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_41095\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 337px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/07/20/arrow-gobies-ghost-shrimp-and-bubble-snails-teachers-explore-the-unique-biodiversity-of-san-francisco-bay/seine-net/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-41095\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-41095\" title=\"Seine Net\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/07/Seine-Net-337x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"337\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seine net sampling of near shore animals at Crown Beach\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>They were identified, tallied and returned to the bay. Teachers also practiced sampling techniques and data analysis for estimating what animals might live in the Bay mudflats. With quadrats in hand they assessed the surface for animal evidence such as ghost shrimp holes, lug worm castings and egg masses, and various holes indicating animal homes. Then they took some mud samples back to the lab and used a sieve and microscopes for further identification of amphipods, worms, gem clams, and more. Armed with this raw data, they then broke up into project groups to work on developing a hypothesis related to San Francisco Bay, climate change and water resources and planned their methods for testing it. They had to present their findings on the final day of class.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The following days we explored Native American life at \u003ca title=\"EBRPD Coyote Hills\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/coyote_hills\" target=\"_blank\">Coyote Hills\u003c/a> along with a freshwater marsh and salt ponds being restored to mudflats. We journeyed on \u003ca title=\"EBRPD MLK, Jr. Regional Shoreline\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/martinlking\" target=\"_blank\">San Leandro Bay\u003c/a> in Oakland via canoes the teachers paddled. From the boats they sampled the mix of fresh and salt water and observed human impacts around the Bay from the surrounding watersheds. They then took a ferry to explore \u003ca title=\"CA State Parks - Angel Island\" href=\"http://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=468\" target=\"_blank\">Angel Island\u003c/a> for a perspective on the Bay-Delta interface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_41097\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 337px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/07/20/arrow-gobies-ghost-shrimp-and-bubble-snails-teachers-explore-the-unique-biodiversity-of-san-francisco-bay/nature-journaling-ch-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-41097\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-41097\" title=\"Nature Journaling CH\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/07/Nature-Journaling-CH1-337x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"337\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A quiet moment of reflection during Nature Journaling at Coyote Hills\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The finale of the week was the presentation of their group projects. One group hypothesized about potential impacts of sea level rise and discovered areas in their travels over the week that could potentially be lost with a one-meter rise in sea level. The lost areas included both marshes and mudflats along with buildings, trails, and parking lots. Other groups investigated gull behavior, and others compared the natural systems in the different field trip locations. All were well done and a great wrap-up of the week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’ve been partnering to offer a San Francisco Bay Institute for teachers for five of the last six years. This year nineteen teachers spent a week of their summer vacations with us, getting to know each other and having a great time outdoors. Over the last six years we’ve had the privilege to work with over 100 teachers. They in turn are reaching our next generation of students with a better understanding of this amazing body of water we share and ideas for how to make learning about science exciting and relevant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Additional Links:\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nPartnering agencies for the San Francisco Bay Institute: \u003ca title=\"California Institute for Biodiversity website\" href=\"http://www.calalive.org/\" target=\"_blank\">California Institute for Biodiversity\u003c/a>, \u003ca title=\"East Bay Regional Parks\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/activities/educators\" target=\"_blank\">East Bay Regional Park District\u003c/a> and \u003ca title=\"California State Parks - School Programs\" href=\"http://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=21696\" target=\"_blank\">California State Parks\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Encyclopedia Of Life: \u003ca title=\"Encyclopedia of Life - Crab Cove Species list\" href=\"http://eol.org/collections/10307\" target=\"_blank\">Crab Cove Species List\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"disqusTitle": "California's Deadlocked Delta: Is Carbon Farming the Future?",
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"content": "\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/05/2012-05-21-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is the third story in our three-part \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/series/californias-deadlocked-delta/\">series on California's Delta\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38425\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Farming-marquee.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Farming-marquee-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Farming-marquee\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38425\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tules on Twitchell Island in the Delta. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With thousands of acres of rich farmland, the Delta has a long agricultural legacy. But farming there can be a risky business. Dozens of farms have been flooded over the past half century as aging levees have collapsed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That became a reality for farmer Rudy Mussi on the morning of June 3, 2004. It was clear, sunny day. \"You never expect a flood in the summer months,\" says Mussi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mussi was growing corn and asparagus on lower Jones Tract, an island in the Delta, 10 miles west of Stockton. That morning, he got a phone call. \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/06/04/MNG1G70S3A1.DTL&ao=all\">Water was flooding\u003c/a> onto his farmland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Your heart stops for a second or two and then realism sets in. And you just start moving your equipment and get it to high ground,\" says Mussi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How did a flood happen a on a sunny day? It's because of a basic rule of physics. Mussi farmed on an island below sea level, like a lot of the islands in the Delta. The Delta used to be a huge swath of wetlands, where two major rivers met San Francisco Bay. Today, earthen levees hold that water back – most of the time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Once a break occurs, you know, there's no way you're gonna stop that, not with 10 feet of water on the other side,\" Mussi says. Draining the island and repairing the levees around Jones Tract cost about $90 million. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38449\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 232px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingLevee.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingLevee-232x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarmingLevee\" width=\"232\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38449\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The levee break on Jones Tract in 2004. (Photo: CA Department of Water Resources)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It wasn't an isolated incident. Over the last century, more than 150 levees have failed in the Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Delta Infrastructure at Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is how we get ourselves in kind of an arms race between the water and the land,\" says Jeff Mount, professor with the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California-Davis. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Levee-building began in the 1850s, when settlers came to the Delta for the rich soil. More than a thousand miles of levees were built. \"This network of levees through time had to get bigger and bigger for a very basic reason: the land has been steadily lowering,\" says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As farmers exposed the rich peat soil, it started decomposing. The land level dropped; \"In some places they talked about four inches per year,\" says Mount. Today, it's less than an inch per year thanks to better farming practices. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add up all those inches over the past century and some islands are now 30 feet below sea level. That puts a lot of stress on the levees. There are also other concerns: rising sea levels and extreme floods. \"And then the big 800-pound gorilla in the room – we're due for a very large earthquake on the San Andreas system.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add up all these risks and Mount says there's a two-thirds \u003ca href=\"http://californiawaterblog.com/2011/03/09/sea-level-rise-and-delta-subsidence%E2%80%94the-demise-of-subsided-delta-islands/\">chance of a catastrophic levee failure\u003c/a> in the next 50 years. That, of course, affects farmers and communities in the Delta, but it could also impact California's water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The raindrops that fall in Mount Shasta are consumed by people in San Diego. Water moves a great distance and this is one of the critical hubs in that system,\" says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fixing the Delta's levees is estimated to cost billions. But on some islands, scientists are experimenting with a new fix.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Farming Carbon\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38450\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 219px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingsoil.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingsoil-219x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarmingsoil\" width=\"219\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Peat soil samples on Twitchell Island. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On a windy day on Twitchell Island in the Delta, ecologist Lisa Windham-Myers of the US Geological Survey pushes her way through a wetland filled with a tall, reed-like plant known as \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoenoplectus_acutus\">tule\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The plant grows... some of these are 16 feet tall. They're just huge,\" she says. That growth is changing the ground we're standing on. Windham-Myers pulls out a sample of the dark peat soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wetland \u003ca href=\"http://ca.water.usgs.gov/Carbon_Farm/RandD.html\">produces soil at a rapid rate\u003c/a> – four inches a year on average. That's huge, says USGS scientist Brian Bergamaschi, in a place where the land is sinking. \"These islands are like bowls and the way we see projects like this is you want to fill up the middle of that bowl and help level out the whole island.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Planting wetlands like this one could raise the land level and water table on the inside of levees, relieving some of the pressure. But why would farmers want to replace cash crops with tule? Windham-Myers points to the soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is basically almost 100 percent carbon. These take up far more than a typical forest environment,\" she says. California is setting up a market for carbon, as part of the state's effort to cut global warming emissions. Early next year, companies that need to reduce their emissions could pay farmers to store carbon in wetlands like this.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38451\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarming2.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarming2.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarming2\" width=\"320\" height=\"199\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38451\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">USGS scientist Brian Bergamaschi talks with Delta farmer Al Medvitch. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Today, two farmers are here checking out the project: Steve Mello, a Delta farmer on Tyler Island and Al Medvitch, a farmer in the Montezuma Hills. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The potential has been demonstrated well. You guys are standing in the middle of it. But in order to move from here to market, we need to develop a lot more techniques so people can come and verify that the carbon is stored,\" says Brian Bergamaschi, describing how wetland farming might work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both farmers seem open to the idea. But Mello says ultimately, it depends on the bottom line. \"It would absolutely need to cash flow. While it could dovetail with levee stability, it would still need to generate enough to amortize your property value.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, Mello says assuming carbon prices are high enough, growing patches of wetlands could be a feasible way to improve the levees and to stay farming.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "California’s Delta has a rich agricultural legacy, but farming there can be a risky business. Dozens of farms have been flooded over the past half century as aging levees have collapsed. Now, scientists are encouraging farmers to switch to a new crop. Instead of growing vegetables, they’d grow something that has all but disappeared in the Delta: wetlands. ",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/05/2012-05-21-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is the third story in our three-part \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/series/californias-deadlocked-delta/\">series on California's Delta\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38425\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Farming-marquee.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Farming-marquee-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Farming-marquee\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38425\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tules on Twitchell Island in the Delta. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With thousands of acres of rich farmland, the Delta has a long agricultural legacy. But farming there can be a risky business. Dozens of farms have been flooded over the past half century as aging levees have collapsed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That became a reality for farmer Rudy Mussi on the morning of June 3, 2004. It was clear, sunny day. \"You never expect a flood in the summer months,\" says Mussi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mussi was growing corn and asparagus on lower Jones Tract, an island in the Delta, 10 miles west of Stockton. That morning, he got a phone call. \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/06/04/MNG1G70S3A1.DTL&ao=all\">Water was flooding\u003c/a> onto his farmland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Your heart stops for a second or two and then realism sets in. And you just start moving your equipment and get it to high ground,\" says Mussi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How did a flood happen a on a sunny day? It's because of a basic rule of physics. Mussi farmed on an island below sea level, like a lot of the islands in the Delta. The Delta used to be a huge swath of wetlands, where two major rivers met San Francisco Bay. Today, earthen levees hold that water back – most of the time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Once a break occurs, you know, there's no way you're gonna stop that, not with 10 feet of water on the other side,\" Mussi says. Draining the island and repairing the levees around Jones Tract cost about $90 million. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38449\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 232px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingLevee.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingLevee-232x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarmingLevee\" width=\"232\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38449\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The levee break on Jones Tract in 2004. (Photo: CA Department of Water Resources)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It wasn't an isolated incident. Over the last century, more than 150 levees have failed in the Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Delta Infrastructure at Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is how we get ourselves in kind of an arms race between the water and the land,\" says Jeff Mount, professor with the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California-Davis. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Levee-building began in the 1850s, when settlers came to the Delta for the rich soil. More than a thousand miles of levees were built. \"This network of levees through time had to get bigger and bigger for a very basic reason: the land has been steadily lowering,\" says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As farmers exposed the rich peat soil, it started decomposing. The land level dropped; \"In some places they talked about four inches per year,\" says Mount. Today, it's less than an inch per year thanks to better farming practices. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add up all those inches over the past century and some islands are now 30 feet below sea level. That puts a lot of stress on the levees. There are also other concerns: rising sea levels and extreme floods. \"And then the big 800-pound gorilla in the room – we're due for a very large earthquake on the San Andreas system.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add up all these risks and Mount says there's a two-thirds \u003ca href=\"http://californiawaterblog.com/2011/03/09/sea-level-rise-and-delta-subsidence%E2%80%94the-demise-of-subsided-delta-islands/\">chance of a catastrophic levee failure\u003c/a> in the next 50 years. That, of course, affects farmers and communities in the Delta, but it could also impact California's water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The raindrops that fall in Mount Shasta are consumed by people in San Diego. Water moves a great distance and this is one of the critical hubs in that system,\" says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fixing the Delta's levees is estimated to cost billions. But on some islands, scientists are experimenting with a new fix.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Farming Carbon\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38450\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 219px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingsoil.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingsoil-219x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarmingsoil\" width=\"219\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Peat soil samples on Twitchell Island. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On a windy day on Twitchell Island in the Delta, ecologist Lisa Windham-Myers of the US Geological Survey pushes her way through a wetland filled with a tall, reed-like plant known as \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoenoplectus_acutus\">tule\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The plant grows... some of these are 16 feet tall. They're just huge,\" she says. That growth is changing the ground we're standing on. Windham-Myers pulls out a sample of the dark peat soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wetland \u003ca href=\"http://ca.water.usgs.gov/Carbon_Farm/RandD.html\">produces soil at a rapid rate\u003c/a> – four inches a year on average. That's huge, says USGS scientist Brian Bergamaschi, in a place where the land is sinking. \"These islands are like bowls and the way we see projects like this is you want to fill up the middle of that bowl and help level out the whole island.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Planting wetlands like this one could raise the land level and water table on the inside of levees, relieving some of the pressure. But why would farmers want to replace cash crops with tule? Windham-Myers points to the soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is basically almost 100 percent carbon. These take up far more than a typical forest environment,\" she says. California is setting up a market for carbon, as part of the state's effort to cut global warming emissions. Early next year, companies that need to reduce their emissions could pay farmers to store carbon in wetlands like this.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38451\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarming2.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarming2.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarming2\" width=\"320\" height=\"199\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38451\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">USGS scientist Brian Bergamaschi talks with Delta farmer Al Medvitch. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Today, two farmers are here checking out the project: Steve Mello, a Delta farmer on Tyler Island and Al Medvitch, a farmer in the Montezuma Hills. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The potential has been demonstrated well. You guys are standing in the middle of it. But in order to move from here to market, we need to develop a lot more techniques so people can come and verify that the carbon is stored,\" says Brian Bergamaschi, describing how wetland farming might work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both farmers seem open to the idea. But Mello says ultimately, it depends on the bottom line. \"It would absolutely need to cash flow. While it could dovetail with levee stability, it would still need to generate enough to amortize your property value.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, Mello says assuming carbon prices are high enough, growing patches of wetlands could be a feasible way to improve the levees and to stay farming.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"disqusTitle": "California's Deadlocked Delta: Can We Bring Back What We've Lost?",
"title": "California's Deadlocked Delta: Can We Bring Back What We've Lost?",
"headTitle": "California’s Deadlocked Delta | QUEST | KQED Science",
"content": "\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/05/2012-05-14-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is the second story in our three-part \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/series/californias-deadlocked-delta/\">series on California's Delta\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_37673\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Deltamap.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-37673\" title=\"Deltamap\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Deltamap-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A map of the Delta created by the US Geological Survey in the 1910s.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>As detective stories go, this sunny, spring day in the Delta isn't a typical backdrop. In the distance, tractors move slowly through dry fields of row crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Once he got lost, they were wandering all over,\" says Alison Whipple of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfei.org/he\">San Francisco Estuary Institute\u003c/a>, a non-profit research group based in Richmond. Her colleague, Robin Grossinger, agrees. \"They were all over this place.\" The two are trying to piece together the path of William Wright, a man who got hopelessly lost somewhere nearby.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I should probably mention: it happened 160 years ago. Whipple and Grossinger are historical ecologists. They use sources like old photos, hand-drawn maps and early land surveys to sleuth out what this landscape looked like before it was dramatically remade by Californians.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Delta's landscape has been dramatically remade over the last 200 years. Today, it's a crucial part of the state's water system, supplying 25 million people and irrigating millions of acres of farm land. But with this re-engineering, the Delta's ecosystem has collapsed, harming the fishing industry and putting water supplies at risk. Little is known about what it once looked like.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[box size=small align=right color=white]\u003cstrong>Map of Historical Delta\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/delta-map/\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-37955\" title=\"DeltaThumbnail6\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaThumbnail6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"203\" height=\"110\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/delta-map/\">See an interactive map\u003c/a> of the Delta, past and present, and the historical photos and maps used to create it.\u003cbr>\n[/box]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Lost in a Delta Marsh\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Standing on a levee about 20 miles south of Sacramento, Whipple and Grossinger are discussing what they found a tattered, yellowing notebook uncovered in a state archive. It contains stories from William Wright, a duck hunter who spent a long, cold night lost in the Delta in 1850.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 20pt;padding-right: 20pt;line-height: 110%\">\u003cem>\"On all sides stretched a vast wilderness of tules from ten to fifteen feet in height. The driving storm of sleet was bad, but the pitchy darkness was infinitely worse... Our situation was so miserable that no words can do justice to it.\"\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's not just the dramatic story they're interested in. It's passages this like one:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 20pt;padding-right: 20pt;line-height: 110%\">\u003cem>\"The lakes proved to be from one hundred to three hundred yards in width, as near as we could judge. The water was very cold and often waist‐deep.\" \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Whipple and Grossinger read his account, they knew they’d found a Holy Grail source document. Its detail reveal a landscape that doesn't exist here today and hasn’t existed for some time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The Delta is probably one of the most intensively transformed parts of California and it was also changed really early on because of such fertile land,\" says Grossinger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As California's Gold Rush boomed, farmers came to the Delta for its rich soil. Land went for a dollar an acre and settlers turned the wetlands into dry, agricultural land. 97% of the historic marshes were lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have here maybe one of the most important parts of the state's ecosystem and we don’t actually know how it used to work,\" Says Grossinger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_37590\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-37590\" title=\"SFEI\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/SFEI.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"320\" height=\"228\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alison Whipple and Robin Grossinger examine historic maps in the Delta.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>He and Whipple have layered together thousands of historical sources that reveal an ecosystem of incredible complexity. “We would be in trees right here with a couple winding channels that were dry in the summer but had flowing water in the wintertime,\" explains Whipple.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yearly floods from the Sacramento River inundated Delta marshes creating habitat for birds and young salmon. Closer to San Francisco Bay, hundreds of miles of small tidal channels branched out like capillaries in the wetlands. Today, most of those channels have been filled in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Returning the Delta to this pristine state just isn’t possible, says Whipple, and that’s not the goal of the project. But knowing how the ecosystem once worked could improve the habitat restoration efforts that are happening.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Restoring Habitat\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Liberty Island is one place in the Delta that looks as it might have 200 years ago. Not long ago, it was a low-lying expanse of farmland, protected by tall levees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The levees broke and it wasn’t financially worth reclaiming,” Says Carl Wilcox of with \u003ca href=\"http://www.dfg.ca.gov/\">California’s Department of Fish and Game\u003c/a>. The landowners gave up when the island flooded 15 years ago. After that, nature took over. Tules and cattails started sprouting and wildlife followed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_37591\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/californias-deadlocked-delta-can-we-bring-back-what-weve-lost/libertyisland/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-37591\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-37591\" title=\"LibertyIsland\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/LibertyIsland.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"320\" height=\"217\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Returning vegetation at Liberty Island in the Delta.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Now, “some of the endangered native fishes, Delta smelt, longfin smelt are using this area,” says Wilcox. They're finding endangered Chinook salmon as well. \"These are more productive areas for them, they’re more protected, they’re less prone to predators.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California Considers Ambitious Restoration Plans\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is using the Liberty Island project as a model for a proposal to restore 65,000 acres of Delta habitat. It's part of the Bay Delta Conservation Plan - a major overhaul of the Delta’s water infrastructure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Leo Winternitz of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.org/\">Nature Conservancy\u003c/a> says bringing back habitat for declining wildlife could make the state’s water supply more reliable. Restrictions under the Endangered Species Act have limited how much water can be pumped from the Delta in recent years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is one big problem with restoration: most of the islands in the Delta are below sea level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Just south of here, some of the islands, they're in the 17 to 25 below sea level range. So if their levees broke, what you’d have is a large open body of water. You can’t create tidal marshes in those areas,\" says Winternitz.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That leaves only a few places where restoration is feasible. Winternitz says in those areas it’s crucial the state look to the past to create the same interconnected habitat that once was.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Governor Jerry Brown's administration is set to unveil the sweeping plan to restore the Delta later this year.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "California's Delta is a far cry from what it once was. About 97% of its historic marshes have been lost and scientists aren’t quite sure what the Delta once looked like. Now, a Bay Area group is working to reconstruct it through ecological detective work.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/05/2012-05-14-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is the second story in our three-part \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/series/californias-deadlocked-delta/\">series on California's Delta\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_37673\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Deltamap.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-37673\" title=\"Deltamap\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Deltamap-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A map of the Delta created by the US Geological Survey in the 1910s.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>As detective stories go, this sunny, spring day in the Delta isn't a typical backdrop. In the distance, tractors move slowly through dry fields of row crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Once he got lost, they were wandering all over,\" says Alison Whipple of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfei.org/he\">San Francisco Estuary Institute\u003c/a>, a non-profit research group based in Richmond. Her colleague, Robin Grossinger, agrees. \"They were all over this place.\" The two are trying to piece together the path of William Wright, a man who got hopelessly lost somewhere nearby.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I should probably mention: it happened 160 years ago. Whipple and Grossinger are historical ecologists. They use sources like old photos, hand-drawn maps and early land surveys to sleuth out what this landscape looked like before it was dramatically remade by Californians.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Delta's landscape has been dramatically remade over the last 200 years. Today, it's a crucial part of the state's water system, supplying 25 million people and irrigating millions of acres of farm land. But with this re-engineering, the Delta's ecosystem has collapsed, harming the fishing industry and putting water supplies at risk. Little is known about what it once looked like.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[box size=small align=right color=white]\u003cstrong>Map of Historical Delta\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/delta-map/\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-37955\" title=\"DeltaThumbnail6\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaThumbnail6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"203\" height=\"110\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/delta-map/\">See an interactive map\u003c/a> of the Delta, past and present, and the historical photos and maps used to create it.\u003cbr>\n[/box]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Lost in a Delta Marsh\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Standing on a levee about 20 miles south of Sacramento, Whipple and Grossinger are discussing what they found a tattered, yellowing notebook uncovered in a state archive. It contains stories from William Wright, a duck hunter who spent a long, cold night lost in the Delta in 1850.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 20pt;padding-right: 20pt;line-height: 110%\">\u003cem>\"On all sides stretched a vast wilderness of tules from ten to fifteen feet in height. The driving storm of sleet was bad, but the pitchy darkness was infinitely worse... Our situation was so miserable that no words can do justice to it.\"\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's not just the dramatic story they're interested in. It's passages this like one:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 20pt;padding-right: 20pt;line-height: 110%\">\u003cem>\"The lakes proved to be from one hundred to three hundred yards in width, as near as we could judge. The water was very cold and often waist‐deep.\" \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Whipple and Grossinger read his account, they knew they’d found a Holy Grail source document. Its detail reveal a landscape that doesn't exist here today and hasn’t existed for some time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The Delta is probably one of the most intensively transformed parts of California and it was also changed really early on because of such fertile land,\" says Grossinger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As California's Gold Rush boomed, farmers came to the Delta for its rich soil. Land went for a dollar an acre and settlers turned the wetlands into dry, agricultural land. 97% of the historic marshes were lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have here maybe one of the most important parts of the state's ecosystem and we don’t actually know how it used to work,\" Says Grossinger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_37590\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-37590\" title=\"SFEI\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/SFEI.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"320\" height=\"228\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alison Whipple and Robin Grossinger examine historic maps in the Delta.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>He and Whipple have layered together thousands of historical sources that reveal an ecosystem of incredible complexity. “We would be in trees right here with a couple winding channels that were dry in the summer but had flowing water in the wintertime,\" explains Whipple.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yearly floods from the Sacramento River inundated Delta marshes creating habitat for birds and young salmon. Closer to San Francisco Bay, hundreds of miles of small tidal channels branched out like capillaries in the wetlands. Today, most of those channels have been filled in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Returning the Delta to this pristine state just isn’t possible, says Whipple, and that’s not the goal of the project. But knowing how the ecosystem once worked could improve the habitat restoration efforts that are happening.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Restoring Habitat\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Liberty Island is one place in the Delta that looks as it might have 200 years ago. Not long ago, it was a low-lying expanse of farmland, protected by tall levees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The levees broke and it wasn’t financially worth reclaiming,” Says Carl Wilcox of with \u003ca href=\"http://www.dfg.ca.gov/\">California’s Department of Fish and Game\u003c/a>. The landowners gave up when the island flooded 15 years ago. After that, nature took over. Tules and cattails started sprouting and wildlife followed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_37591\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/californias-deadlocked-delta-can-we-bring-back-what-weve-lost/libertyisland/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-37591\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-37591\" title=\"LibertyIsland\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/LibertyIsland.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"320\" height=\"217\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Returning vegetation at Liberty Island in the Delta.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Now, “some of the endangered native fishes, Delta smelt, longfin smelt are using this area,” says Wilcox. They're finding endangered Chinook salmon as well. \"These are more productive areas for them, they’re more protected, they’re less prone to predators.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California Considers Ambitious Restoration Plans\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is using the Liberty Island project as a model for a proposal to restore 65,000 acres of Delta habitat. It's part of the Bay Delta Conservation Plan - a major overhaul of the Delta’s water infrastructure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Leo Winternitz of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.org/\">Nature Conservancy\u003c/a> says bringing back habitat for declining wildlife could make the state’s water supply more reliable. Restrictions under the Endangered Species Act have limited how much water can be pumped from the Delta in recent years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is one big problem with restoration: most of the islands in the Delta are below sea level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Just south of here, some of the islands, they're in the 17 to 25 below sea level range. So if their levees broke, what you’d have is a large open body of water. You can’t create tidal marshes in those areas,\" says Winternitz.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That leaves only a few places where restoration is feasible. Winternitz says in those areas it’s crucial the state look to the past to create the same interconnected habitat that once was.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Governor Jerry Brown's administration is set to unveil the sweeping plan to restore the Delta later this year.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"info": "What kind of no sabo word is Hyphenación? For us, it’s about living within a hyphenation. Like being a third-gen Mexican-American from the Texas border now living that Bay Area Chicano life. Like Xorje! Each week we bring together a couple of hyphenated Latinos to talk all about personal life choices: family, careers, relationships, belonging … everything is on the table. ",
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"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
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"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
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"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
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"info": "Political Breakdown is a new series that explores the political intersection of California and the nation. Each week hosts Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos are joined with a new special guest to unpack politics -- with personality — and offer an insider’s glimpse at how politics happens.",
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"possible": {
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"title": "Possible",
"info": "Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.",
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"radiolab": {
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},
"rightnowish": {
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"title": "Rightnowish",
"tagline": "Art is where you find it",
"info": "Rightnowish digs into life in the Bay Area right now… ish. Journalist Pendarvis Harshaw takes us to galleries painted on the sides of liquor stores in West Oakland. We'll dance in warehouses in the Bayview, make smoothies with kids in South Berkeley, and listen to classical music in a 1984 Cutlass Supreme in Richmond. Every week, Pen talks to movers and shakers about how the Bay Area shapes what they create, and how they shape the place we call home.",
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"tagline": "Real stories with killer beats",
"info": "The Snap Judgment radio show and podcast mixes real stories with killer beats to produce cinematic, dramatic radio. Snap's musical brand of storytelling dares listeners to see the world through the eyes of another. This is storytelling... with a BEAT!! Snap first aired on public radio stations nationwide in July 2010. Today, Snap Judgment airs on over 450 public radio stations and is brought to the airwaves by KQED & PRX.",
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"soldout": {
"id": "soldout",
"title": "SOLD OUT: Rethinking Housing in America",
"tagline": "A new future for housing",
"info": "Sold Out: Rethinking Housing in America",
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