Crews Struggle to Contain Big Sur Fires With El Niño on the Horizon
Light rainfall on Friday did little to dampen the threat of the Timber and Plaskett fires in the Big Sur area, with experts warning that impending El Niño conditions could escalate matters.
Just 21% contained since its eruption on Aug. 8, the Timber Fire has burned 23,343 acres as of Friday afternoon and ranks as the third-biggest fire of the year. Highway 1 still remains under threat from that blaze, as well as the Plaskett Fire to the south, which has burned 2,774 acres since its eruption on Wednesday morning.
While rain clouds gathered in the Monterey County area on Friday morning, Cal Fire incident meteorologist Aviva Braun said in a YouTube briefing that, after bringing little relief to either blaze, they will dissipate this afternoon, followed by drying conditions.
That “constant drying factor” presents challenges, Braun said.
Citing these conditions as well as the threat of erratic wind gusts approaching 40 mph that could be triggered by isolated thunderstorms, meteorologists already issued a red flag warning along the central coast.
Fourteen areas in the Timber Fire region face active evacuation orders, with another 17 under evacuation warnings — and five more under orders to shelter in place.
Around Plaskett, two areas face evacuation orders and another three are under evacuation warnings.
The fire has already closed a 40-mile stretch of Highway 1, beginning around Gorda at mile marker 10.2 to just south of Old Coast Road at Mile Marker 50.1. Officials have no timeline on plans to reopen the iconic roadway.
“As surrounding brush dries out, fire activity is expected to pick up, with the potential for flying embers to spark new spot fires 0.1 to 0.2 miles ahead of the main fire front and cross over established containment lines,” Cal Fire wrote in a statement.
A community meeting on the Timber Fire is scheduled for 4 p.m. Saturday in Carmel Valley’s Cachagua Community Park.
Daniel Swain with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources spoke about the Big Sur fires in a briefing late Thursday afternoon, part of the climate scientist’s YouTube channel offering live weather commentary.
As the Timber Fire slowly moves in the direction of more populated areas, Swain said, the situation is “getting a little bit serious,” but it has not yet risen to the level of an emergency.
Coupled with the approach of autumnal El Niño conditions, “This pattern is looking awfully favorable for something significant to happen in the first or second week of September,” Swain said.
“This is the classic part of the California coast that might see a lot of rainfall in a very strong El Niño year,” Swain said early in the broadcast, noting the possibility of a future flood and debris flow problem.
Current water temperatures off the coast of Southern California are up to 7 degrees Celsius above average, Swain said. “These are extremely humid conditions, not just anomalously humid, but way up into, essentially, about-as-humid-as-it’s-ever-gotten type of territory in some parts of Southern California,” he said.
In addition to the humidity, Swain pointed to what he called “ridiculously warm, record-shattering overnight temperatures.”
With dew points in the mid- to upper-70s, “that is positively Miami-like” for Southern California, he said.
Cal Fire said that the cause of both the Timber and Plaskett fires remained under investigation.
There are 1,228 personnel responding to the Timber Fire, with 14 helicopters and 87 engines and 661 structures in the area are threatened.