Outside Groups Are Spending Millions in California's U.S. House Races. Will it Make a Difference?

Voters began seeing dueling ads last month in one of California’s most contested congressional districts — a rematch between former Democratic Assemblymember Rudy Salas and GOP Rep. David Valadao.

Only a sliver of those ads were paid for by their own campaigns.

The candidates have each released a 30-second spot, touting their farming roots and their pledge to represent working families. But in far more TV ads, funded by other political groups, they are portrayed as out of touch with the working class and cast in gloomy monotone color.

Outside political organizations, independent from candidates’ campaigns, are buying airtime and driving the spending war between Democratic and Republican candidates in five of California’s tightest congressional races, campaign finance records show.

In those close contests from the Central Valley to Southern California, outside groups spent a total of $71 million as of Thursday — almost twice the amount candidates themselves have spent this election, according to data from OpenSecrets, a Washington, D.C.-based campaign finance watchdog group.

That money war highlights the importance of California to control of the U.S. House, even though the state is overall safely Democratic, said Jack Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College.

“The path to the speakership runs through California,” Pitney said.

The spending blitz comes as Republicans try to fend off Democratic challengers and defend their eight-seat House majority. Both GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries campaigned for swing district candidates in California this week.

But in six of the most competitive California districts, Republicans were outraised by Democrats by almost 300% between July and September, according to the latest federal campaign finance filings.

Salas, for example, raised $1.8 million from individuals and political committees, while Valadao raised just $727,000, records show. In another competitive Central Valley seat, Democratic businessman Adam Gray raised $2.3 million while incumbent GOP Rep. John Duarte raised just shy of $500,000.

Similarly, in southern California’s 27th, 41st and 47th congressional districts, Democrats more than doubled Republicans’ fundraising for the third quarter. In Orange County’s 45th District, Derek Tran — a Democratic workers rights advocate — raised almost $2 million, while GOP Rep. Michelle Steel reported raising $1.3 million, including $1 million from herself.

That shows the waning influence of former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield and the rise of California’s Democratic Reps. Peter Aguilar and Ted Lieu as chairperson and vice chairperson of the House Democratic Caucus, respectively, said Democratic strategist Garry South.

“These are the seats that Democrats are going to have to flip … if they are going to take back the House,” he said.

But fundraising by candidates is only part of the money game.

Congressional Leadership Fund, a juggernaut Republican political action committee tied to House Speaker Johnson, plans to spend a total $40 million in California’s battleground districts — more than in any other state, a spokesperson confirmed to CalMatters.

“California remains an essential battleground for holding the House majority, which is why we’ve made such substantial and comprehensive investments in the state,” Dan Conston, president of the group, said in a statement.

House Majority PAC, its Democratic counterpart, has also booked more than $40 million in ads across the state, according to press secretary Alisha Heng.

“House Democrats are well-positioned and have the momentum, and we will flip the House blue and elect Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker in November,” she said in a statement.

A similar rivalry is playing out between the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arms of House Democrats and Republicans.

As of last week, the House Democratic campaign had spent $6.3 million airing ads in California’s Central Valley districts and has since launched a mobile billboard campaign across 27 swing districts nationwide — including six in California — to target the conservative “Project 2025” policy playbook.

“Our California challengers are lapping the competition in fundraising and meeting voters where they are,” Dan Gottlieb, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement.

Its GOP counterpart had spent $4 million as of last week running ads in four districts in the Central Valley and northern Los Angeles County, according to federal campaign finance filings.

“California House Republicans built strong fundraising totals this cycle, our message is resonating with voters and we have significant investments to reach voters in the final stretch,” said spokesperson Ben Petersen.

Others are also jumping into the fray.

America PAC, a pro-Donald Trump super PAC created by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, has spent $3 million boosting Republicans in three California House races — more than any other state, according to data from OpenSecrets. And cryptocurrency-linked super PACs have also invested millions of dollars supporting Republican incumbents in three swing districts in California: $2.8 million for Steel, $1.3 million for Valadao, and $1 million for Rep. Mike Garcia, POLITICO reported.

The ad blitzes by outside groups, however, aren’t always as cost-effective as candidates’ own spending, experts say. Non-candidate political groups must pay higher ad rates — sometimes in California’s most expensive TV markets, they noted.

“You talk about advertising in L.A., one week of television for a super PAC buy for a congressional race can be $2.5 million,” said GOP consultant Jon Fleischman.

And attack ads funded by outside organizations could be so negative that they risk turning voters off, strategists say.

“Voters don’t read the fine print. They don’t read the disclaimers on the ads,” South said. “All of that negative advertising is basically attributed by the voters to the candidate, not to some outside PAC they’ve never heard of.”