California Political Profile
The United States elected a Republican president in 2000, and Republican majorities have increased in many other states -- but California voted for Al Gore and has elected Democratic majorities to both houses of its legislature and in its congressional delegation. Our U.S. senators, the governor and every other statewide elected official but one is a Democrat. This trend is expected to continue in this year's election.

Writing in 1949, Carey McWilliams called California "the great exception." Few states have been transformed as frequently by changing patterns of immigration and new technology. Colonized by Spain, Mexico ceded California to the United States in 1848, the same year gold was discovered. In a matter of months, a territory of quiet ranches was transformed by the arrival of thousands of Yankees from the east and immigrants from all over the world.

Barely 20 years later, the transcontinental railroad transformed California again, expanding the market for its agricultural products and carrying still more immigrants. Next came oil, the movies, war in the Pacific, the defense industry, aerospace and high tech. With each discovery of new "gold"--agricultural, celluloid or silicon--the state's diverse population has swelled with new waves of immigrants, most particularly from Mexico, South America and Asia.

Republicans have governed California for most of its history. Even when the railroad-dominated 19th-century Republican political machine was challenged, it was by reformers from within--the Progressives. Once in office, they reformed the state's political structures, weakening the political parties through primary elections and cross-filing (candidates could seek the nomination of both major parties) and introducing the ballot initiative and other forms of direct democracy.

Democrats attained majority status among registered voters in the 1930s, but thanks to the reforms of the Progressives, the economic power of Republicans and voter turnout patterns, only four Democrats have ever been elected governor of California.

From the 1940s to the 1960s, California invested in an infrastructure of highways, dams and canals and colleges and other schools that sustains the state economically and socially to this day. Beginning in the 1970s, conservative governors and a voter-initiated tax revolt effectively ended such investments.

The tide turned in the 1990s as recent immigrant groups entered the political process and the state Republican Party turned to the far right. By 2000, Whites accounted for 47 percent of the population (down 10 percent from 1990), with Latinos at 32 percent, Asians at 11 percent, Blacks at 6 percent and Native Americans at 1 percent. The Latino proportion of the electorate doubled in the 1990s, from 7 percent to 14 percent. Asian participation also grew. And as these minority groups were joining the political process, the Republican Party was supporting initiatives on immigration, bilingual education and affirmative action that were perceived as anti-immigrant. As a result, Latinos and other new voters overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates. But many Asians and Latinos are not yet citizens or are too young to vote, so Whites remain more than 70 percent of the electorate.

Also in the 1990s, conservative activists gained power in the state's Republican Party, assuring that the party platform remained staunchly opposed to abortion and gun control, even though a majority of California's White, suburban voters disagree.

Republicans are expected to make little progress in the coming election. The state legislature and congressional delegation will retain Democratic majorities, perhaps slightly strengthened. Reapportionment following the 2000 census assured this, with both parties agreeing to protect incumbents by packing districts with strong majorities of one party or the other. California now has very few competitive legislative districts.

Gray Davis, California's Democratic governor, seemed assured of re-election a couple of years ago. Then came the energy crisis. The governor's approval ratings plummeted, and he appeared vulnerable. Unchallenged for his own party's nomination, he spent $9 million in ads criticizing Richard Riordan, the former mayor of Los Angeles and the Republicans' best hope. Thanks in part to his own lackluster campaign, Riordan lost to the lesser-known William Simon, who quickly ran into trouble over his personal finances and questionable business practices.

Davis holds a lead in the polls, but voters remain unhappy with him, not only because of his handling of the energy crisis, but also because of the budget crisis that hit this year.

With a gubernatorial campaign that has not engaged voters and little competition in legislative races, voter turnout is expected to be lower than ever in November. Few initiatives are on the ballot and none have galvanized voters. However, a measure to allow election-day voter registration could have an important impact on future turnout, and bond measures for education, water and housing could help revive California's faltering infrastructure.

-- Written for KQED and The NewsHour by Terry Christensen, a professor of political science at San Jose State University and co-author with Larry N. Gerston of California Politics and Government. Thanks to Smart Voter and the League of Women Voters of California.