Geologists say it's likely that a major earthquake will hit
the Bay Area sometime in the next 25 years.

I woke up to what sounded like mumbling coming from my radio. I thought maybe the alarm had gone off, but it was only 4:40 a.m. and I get up at 6. I lay listening to the humming of the fan, in my bed at my apartment in Oakland on Friday, July 20.

Suddenly, the whole building erupted in violent shaking.

A few thoughts flew through my mind. "Is this the big one? Is our apartment retrofitted? Will it fall off its foundation?" Then the quake was over. I sat up. "Wow, that was about a 6.0," I predicted. Earlier in the year, we had been in several earthquakes that were in the 3.0 range. I thought my guess was accurate, but it turned out I was way off. The quake was a 4.2. It's understandable I was off so far on my guess, though.

First of all, where I live was almost right on top of the epicenter, and its energy hadn't dissipated from traveling a long distance.

Secondly, earthquake magnitude can be hard to guess because it is measured on a logarithmic, not linear, scale. In other words, when a quake is 3.0 on the Richter scale, it isn't merely three times stronger than a 1.0 earthquake. It's actually 100 times stronger. Each whole number on the Richter scale is an order of magnitude bigger than the previous whole number. Thus a 2.0 quake is ten times stronger than a 1.0 quake, and a 4.0 earthquake is 1,000 (1×10x10×10) times stronger than a 1.0 earthquake. Likewise, a 7.0 quake is a million times (106) stronger than a 1.0, which is why it can be so hard to guess actual size.

Unfortunately, there is a high probability that a 7.0 earthquake will hit the Bay Area in the next twenty years. Its source will be the Hayward Fault, one of the branches of the San Andreas Fault. The last time there was a major quake on the Hayward Fault was in 1868. It was known as the "Great San Francisco Earthquake", until S.F. was hit by a major quake from the San Andreas Fault in 1906.

A quake of a magnitude of 7.0 is immensely powerful. When it hits, it will cause major structural damage. The Loma Prieta earthquake, in 1989, was between a 6.9 and 7.1. It wiped out large sections of freeway, and caused all sorts of problems that affect Bay Area residents to this day.

Regrettably, there isn't much scientists can do to accurately predict earthquakes. They have even tried observing the abnormal behavior of animals. But studies done in the 1970's, by the United States Geological Survey, found there is no evidence that this was a reliable predictor. As a result, the USGS has not devoted further resources to similar studies.

Maybe someday we'll figure out how to predict earthquakes, but in the meantime I'm going to get serious about that disaster preparedness plan that I keep putting off. Really I will.

Donovan Rittenbach is the Web Manager for the California Academy of Sciences. He has a Master's Degree in Multimedia, and 12 years of web & multimedia industry experience.

The timeline on the redwood cross section said it had been born when the Roman Empire was at the height of its power, around 100 A.D. I was standing in front of a 30-foot-wide tree trunk in the Northern Californian logging town of Fort Bragg.

Tiny little monkey brains, like mine, find it difficult to comprehend what it might mean to live that long. This tree was older than the Catholic Church, one of humanity's oldest uninterrupted power structures. It was 9 times older than the United States. During its lifetime, countless empires rose and fell. A dark age came and went. The Magna Carta was written, providing the foundation for western law. The Scientific Method was born, revolutionizing human existence. 50 generations of humans lived and died, all within the lifetime of that one tree.

Then, about a hundred years before its second millennium birthday, loggers cut it down. When it fell, it probably weighed in excess of 2,000 tons, or more than 13 blue whales, the largest animals in the world. Based on its weight, it would have produced in excess of 1.67 million board feet of prime lumber. That's a huge amount of house frames, roofs, and decks.

To better understand redwoods and the local logging industry that cut giants like this down, I took the Skunk Train from Fort Bragg up through the Noyo River valley. The Skunk Train used to carry logged redwoods, but when that industry collapsed, it started carrying tourists. As we chugged up through the valley, the train engineer shared an inspiring story.

In the past 100 years, the valley had been clear-cut for agriculture on 3 separate occasions. Despite this fact, it was covered in lush redwoods and other vegetation.

As it turned out, there were actually more redwoods today than there were when humans first started harvesting them. This was due to the unique root structure of redwood trees, which rapidly sprout seedlings. These seedlings can grow a foot a year. As a result, within a couple of decades the cleared land had been completely overgrown. The only place that survived this relentless onslaught was an orchard where the owner dynamited the entire forest floor to break up the redwood roots.

Even if there are more redwoods today than there were 100 years ago, it seems wrong to think of these trees as mere commodities, when they should be national treasures or even elders. In a day and age when people are focused on quarterly profits, it seems that we could benefit from the 2,000-year perspective that redwoods can give us.

Who knows though, maybe humans will change their attitudes towards the natural world and today's saplings will be around in two millennia. Maybe humans will even navigate these unprecedented times and gather in the groves of these elders, to contemplate the endurance of their own civilizations. Then maybe, just maybe, they will appreciate the 2,000 year perspective that these plant teachers provide.

Donovan Rittenbach is the Web Manager for the California Academy of Sciences. He has a Master's Degree in Multimedia, and 12 years of web & multimedia industry experience.

Guest blogging for Donovan is Dr. Wendy Moore of the California Academy of Sciences.

With roughly 350,000 described species, beetles are without a doubt one of the most successful forms of life on Earth. Many beetle species use chemicals to defend themselves, but the true masters of chemical defense are the Bombardier Beetles which deliver their defensive chemicals hot, really hot — up to 212 degrees F (100 degrees C). Yes, that's right, there are beetles living right here in the San Francisco Bay Area that discharge chemicals at the boiling point of water! They have a two-chambered defensive gland and each chamber contains different chemicals. When mixed, the chemicals react with one another to produce so much heat that it literally explodes out of an opening on the abdomen, and kaboom! It's a built-in arsenal that deters nearly all predators.

I study a subgroup of these beetles known as the Flanged Bombardier Beetles. This group is incredible not only because they bombard, but also because most species live inside ant nests. That is particularly strange, because ants are extremely aggressive with fine-tuned strategies for keeping non-family members out of their nest. Normally foreigners that try to enter an ant nest are destroyed immediately. Although ants do not have good eyesight, they perceive the world through their sense of touch and taste. Colony members wear an invisible veil of chemicals, which allows them to recognize each other. When a non-family member is in the vicinity of a nest, ants attack first and ask questions later. But ant defenses are not foolproof and many species of Flanged Bombardier Beetles have managed to crack their secret chemical code.

For these clever beetles, going incognito is like going on an all-expenses-paid vacation. Ant nests are stable, dark, moist environments — luxurious accommodations by insect standards. And since they don't have to worry about the ants themselves, the nests are virtually predator-free, making them safe places for adult beetles to lay their eggs and for their offspring to develop.

What's more, the beetles eat the ants and their eggs! Despite the fact that they are predators on ants, some behaviors of the host ants indicate that these beetles are not simply tolerated parasites of the ant colonies, but are valued by the ants in some way. For example, the beetles do not bomb their way into the nests, but rather the ants grab the beetles by their antennae and actively drag them inside.

What, if anything, do the ants get out of this arrangement? We do not know the answer to this question, but clues may be found in another chemical produced by the beetles. Species that live with ants have extremely modified antennae, with an astounding variety of shapes and sizes in different species. The antennae function like factories producing the substances that ants love to eat. Is it a drug? Is it food? We don't know. Whatever it is, it plays an important role in the establishment of beetle-ant relationships, and is one of the many intriguing mysteries I love exploring here at the Academy.

Dr. Wendy Moore is a postdoctoral fellow at the California Academy of Sciences, where her research focuses on the systematics and biogeography of the Flanged Bombardier Beetles of California and Madagascar.

Photo Dong Lin, California Academy of Sciences

If you did, they probably wouldn't care, because you wouldn't be the first person to make that call. That might surprise you, even though it's illegal to collect the bodies of dead marine mammals. But chances are they would guess that it was Raymond Bandar. Since the 1960's, this eccentric icon of San Francisco has been collecting skulls under the permit of the California Academy of Sciences.

Ray is a volunteer at the Academy. He started collecting bones more than 50 years ago when him and his wife were returning from their honeymoon back east, where Ray had seen the skeletons at the American Museum of Natural History.

He was inspired, and along the way found an entire horse skeleton, some winter-killed sheep and cows. Ray piled them all into the backseat of their car, which was fine by his artist wife who thought they looked aesthetically pleasing. Little did she know, this was the beginning of the OTHER lifelong love affair.

Over the years Ray has collected a variety of bones including an elephant pelvis, moose antlers and a pair of deer horns eternally locked in a mortal clash over a doe. He also has baculum, or penis bones, of a variety of animals such as elephant seals and a grizzly. But the skull collection is what is most likely to leave a person speechless.

It contains the skulls of sea lion bulls, spider monkeys, musk oxen, 34 breeds of dogs, a bison, a rare beaked whale, a juvenile black bear, lynx, wolf, wolverine, beaver, caribou and dolphins. But that is only the tip of the iceberg. In all, Ray's unbelievable collection contains over 6,000 skulls!

One of reasons Ray collects skulls is that they can tell a scientist a lot about an animal's life. Depending on what kind of teeth it has and how worn they are, a forensic analyst can determine its diet and age at the time of death, respectively. The size and position of the eye sockets can shed light on the organism’s brain structure, the senses it relied on to survive and its evolutionary history.

Owl Monkey Skull, Photo by Dong Lin

Preparing the skulls is a gory, smelly process. It takes hours to remove the skulls from the rotting body of the dead animal. Once Ray has detached the skull from the spinal column, he will put it in a closed cabinet where flesh eating beetles can clean a skull in as little as a week.

Although some people might find Ray's hobby to be morose, we also know that society is fortunate to have men of great passion, who have dedicated their life to the advancement of knowledge. There is no doubt he has provided us with the valuable record of the natural world.

Donovan Rittenbach is the Web Manager for the California Academy of Sciences. He has a Master’s Degree in Multimedia, and 12 years of web & multimedia industry experience.

Even human commerce was green until about 150 years ago, when milkmen automatically recycled glass milk bottles. Almost all food was locally grown. Horses and cows ate grass and produced manure, which farmers used to fertilize their crops. Then around the latter part of the 19th century, three inventions radically changed the virtuous cycles that informed our relationships with nature. These were: mass-produced gasoline powered vehicles, plastics, and nitrogen fertilizer.

Gasoline powered vehicles allowed vast amounts of products to be transported quickly over long distances via land, sea or air. A variety of containers made of cheap plastic gave rise to the mentality of disposability. Nitrogen fertilizers helped food grow in large enough quantities to fuel an incredible human population explosion. Now here we are, painted into a corner by our progress.

We are in a war for the oil that keeps engines pumping out greenhouse gases so that we can eat our favorite produce all year long. That same oil is used to create plastic that supports the convenience mentality of 6 billion people. It fills up our dumps, and in many third world countries, covers the ground in mounds. A huge amount of that plastic also makes it into the ocean where it kills hundreds of millions of animals every year. Meanwhile, the nitrogen fertilizer used to grow the food that supports the world's population is now the top polluter of our oceans, and is creating huge, dead zones in places like the Gulf of Mexico.

The lesson to be learned here is that nature set the bar for elegant technology solutions and we need to emulate it. Our technologies need to give back to the environment, not just take from it.

That's what the new California Academy of Sciences building is trying to do in Golden Gate Park. It has a roof covered by a million plants that supports indigenous birds and insects, while insulating the building and collecting gray water for administrative use throughout the building. The result is a minimum impact on the environment.

In conclusion, there is no doubt we have a long way to go before our technology is as elegant as Mother Nature's. But, I think our generation will make the world proud of its innovation, and the geeks will inherit the Earth.

Donovan Rittenbach is the Web Manager for the California Academy of Sciences. He has a Master’s Degree in Multimedia, and 12 years of web & multimedia industry experience.

Such was the case of one of the country's longest running experiments in green energy, the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWR). Located east of Livermore, the APWR is the site of the first wind farm in the country. It was installed in 1982, in response to the previous decade's energy crisis. It has over 5,000 windmills with a combined capacity of 580 megawatts. However, their average yearly production is 150 megawatts due to wind fluctuations throughout the year. But it has a problem that was unforeseen.

No environmental impact study was done on the area, which lies along the path of a major raptor migration corridor. It is also a major raptor wintering ground. As a result, the APWR is responsible for the deaths of the most birds of prey of any wind facility in the world.

In 2004, a report by the California Energy Commission stated that the Altamont windmills killed between 880 to 1,300 birds of prey a year. Those included 116 golden eagles and 300 red-tailed hawks as well as numerous burrowing owls kestrels, falcons, and vultures. Because of this incredibly high mortality rate, Alameda County regulators would not let additional windmills be installed. This was unfortunate, because California has a goal of obtaining 20% of its electricity from renewable resources by 2010, and the APWR wasn't going to be able to take advantage of that windfall.

Then in 2005, the companies that owned the windmills took unprecedented action. They initiated the seasonal shutdown of 1/2 of their turbines from November to February. In addition to this, they implemented several other strategies to minimize raptor deaths including the relocation or removal of 100 of the most lethal windmills. Their stated goal was to reduce avian deaths 35% by 2008.

That same year, the Alameda Country Board of Supervisors voted for the replacement of all existing windmills starting in 2009. They wanted the 5,000 older windmills to be replaced with 500 newer, 300-foot tall windmills. Each of these new windmills have blades that are longer than the wings of a 747 jet. Each one generates 2.5 megawatts of power. That means the capacity for electrical output will actually double to 1250 megawatts. Supposedly, the new windmills will kill fewer migratory raptors because they are more easily seen. Unfortunately, the plan will take 13 years to implement, meaning that it will take till 2022 for all the windmills to be replaced. As a result, raptors will continue to die in large numbers.

The moral of our story is that even the most well-meaning of green endeavors can have disastrous and unforeseeable consequences. Changing our world isn't going to be straightforward, but sustainability is no longer an option if we want to survive as a species.

Donovan Rittenbach is the Web Manager for the California Academy of Sciences. He has a Master’s Degree in Multimedia, and 12 years of web & multimedia industry experience.

To get there, take Highway 128. The road is windy, but just after you pass Boonville you will find yourself surrounded by monster redwoods. This is an excellent opportunity to get out and stretch at the feet of these ancient giants. They put our tiny little monkey lives in perspective when you consider they live 20 human lifetimes, or 160+ presidencies.

Continuing along 128, you hit the coast. Drive north to Mendocino and Fort Bragg. You might be hungry by then. Fortunately, the food in the area is surprisingly cosmopolitan. There is plenty of organic meat, and other culinary anomalies including gourmet vegetarian and a raw food "cooking", which is at the very least, an adventure.

A great time to go to that part of the state is in November, during the Mendocino Mushroom Festival. If you go during that time, you’ll learn about one of the most misunderstood, yet fascinating, classes of organisms, fungi.

When we were there we took a mushroom tour at Van Damme Beach State Park. Our guide showed us a fungi species that smelled like exactly like bleach, and another that turned bright red when squished. We even found a Laughing Gym (Gymnopilus spectabilis) mushroom, whose east-coast cousin purportedly makes people laugh for hours– or worse.

For continuing mushroom education, visit a local restaurant. Porcinis and Chantrelles will be in abundance. Maybe you’ll even eat Candy Caps (Lactarius rubidus), a mushroom that tastes like maple syrup.

As you drive along the rugged California coastline, you might feel compelled to get out and explore. If you do, look for Sunflower Stars (Pycnapodia helianthoides). These remarkable starfish are soft and squishy. They have up to 24 arms, and can grow up to 30 inches in diameter. They are our fastest starfish, and actually lift their legs to minimize drag, as you can see in this picture.

Of course, a trip up the coast wouldn’t be complete without some sun worshipping. Watching our favorite thermonuclear campfire disappear into the ocean, in a resplendent burst of color is always enjoyable.

But the best part about staying in the area is the towns are quiet and secluded. Minimal light pollution means you can actually see stars in the night sky and ponder how fragile and insignificant we are floating through the vast ocean of space. Will our species destroy Earth before it makes it to those stars? These are precarious times, and the outcome doesn’t look good. It’ll take a miracle. That’s okay though. I believe in miracles, because I am one.

Donovan Rittenbach is the Web Manager for the California Academy of Sciences. He has a Master’s Degree in Multimedia, and 12 years of web & multimedia industry experience.

Students play in caves at rock city.
Photo by Jason Stalter

At 3,849 feet, its not particularly high, relative to most mountains, but the view from its peak is heavenly. This is especially true on a winter day after a storm has just come through and swept the haze from the surrounding area.

On the right day, you can go to the top of this grand mountain and look out to the west, beyond the Golden Gate Bridge, all the way to the Farallon Islands, an important shark breeding ground. If you look to the south, you will see Mount Hamilton, home of the James Lick Observatory, and one of the most, stable, air masses in the world. To the East, the Sierras will jut out of the horizon like an invading horde of giants. To the North you will see the winding, twisting snarls of the Delta. Beyond that one can see the nuclear reactors of Rancho Seco, just outside of Sacramento. Even further beyond that you might see Mount Lassen nestled in the Cascades, over 200 miles away.

While you are there, I highly recommend you do some hiking. There is an incredible variety of geological formations around, but my favorite is Rock City. It’s huge boulders are easily climbed, just watch out for the scorpions. The caves are a sure winner for the kids too, if you happen to bring them along.

While you are there, take a history lesson. The history of Mount Diablo is rich and colorful. It was a sacred mountain for the Miwok Indians who hunted there, and a sister of another sacred mountain to the west, Mt. Tamalpais. If you are lucky you might find remnants of rock fortifications they built, scattered about the mountainside.

A plethora of wildlife abounds on Mt. Diablo. You can see deer, mountain lions and turkey vultures, but you won’t see condors, pronghorn antelope, condors, prairie hawks, elk and grizzlies. Unfortunately they vanished almost a hundred years ago. When I say vanish, I’m not talking magic acts here. I mean that humans hadn’t conceived of the notion of “sustainable hunting” back then, so they wiped them all out. Yay humans! <sarcasm> We’re the smartest animals on the whole planet. Now, if only we can keep from wiping ourselves out. </sarcasm>. But I digress…

Mount Diablo got its name because of a mistranslation. It all started when the Spanish army was pursuing a band of native Americans in 1806, in order to help them “find God” back at the mission. The natives didn’t want to become “civilized”, so they took cover in a thicket near Pacheco. The Spaniards surrounded them, and setup camp with the intention of rounding their potential converts up in the morning.

During the night, the Indians escaped across the Carquinez Strait, which the Spanish army claimed was only possible “with the help of the Devil”. (He had nothing better to do, but thwart the forces of righteousness.) Consequently, the commander named the thicket “Monte del Diablo”, or The Devil’s Thicket. Anglo settlers later came along and misinterpreted the name, whereupon they assigned it to the most obvious, local landmark that made sense. Oops.

Surely they must have known that the devil is ALWAYS in the details…

Donovan Rittenbach is the Web Manager for the California Academy of Sciences. He has a Master’s Degree in Multimedia, and 12 years of web & multimedia industry experience.

If you are in the area, stop by the Crockers, who founded Wells Fargo Bank. They are buried there, along with the Bechtels, Stanyans, Powells, and Kaisers. Check out the cannons of the artillery unit that fought together in the Civil War. See the pyramids. Visit the sphinxes. You get extra credit if you find any scarab beetles. For the authentic graveyard experience, visit the un-endowed areas. Every time you see the grave of a 2-month old child that died in the 1800’s, I promise it will make you appreciate the wonders of Science, and what its done to lengthen our time on this wacky little island in space.

Don’t forget to stroll over to the Three Pools. On a warm spring day, wild Canadian geese might fly overhead, calling out their age-old cadence. Keep an eye out for rare, soft shell turtles or that infamous invasive species, red-eared sliders. You'll probably see a heron hunting and egrets mingling with ducks, in pastoral serenity.

If you have time, go to the top of the hill and have a picnic with that gourmet lunch you remembered to pick up on Piedmont Ave. The view is marvelous. It’s also a perfect place for contemplating the hustle and bustle of a self-important, monkey civilization that is forgetting its past, even as it rushes forward into the most uncertain future it has ever faced. Will it survive the “War on Terror”, global warming, and processed cheese? There are so many questions of great importance to contemplate in solitude, or with friends.

What I’ve told you doesn’t even scratch the surface of the depth of the glory of the Mountain View Cemetery. Wait till you see the library of the dead in the Columbarium… Or live Jazz at the Chapel of the Chimes… or… there’s so much more.

So turn off that boob tube. It’s time to 'carpe diem' dude! Nobody lives forever. Just ask the residents at the Mountain View Cemetery.

Donovan Rittenbach is the Web Manager for the California Academy of Sciences. He has a Master’s Degree in Multimedia, and 12 years of web & multimedia industry experience.

We were discussing Newt Gingrich's "Contract on America," and how they were trying to wipe out so much environmental progress. She mentioned a mysterious hot springs at the base of Mt. Tamalpais, but it was hidden, and only accessible at a negative tide.

Well, I am a knight who loves a good quest and what better quest to undertake than trying to find a secret, hot springs? In the end it took ten years to find the hot spring, but I had many adventures along the way.

One in particular stands out in my mind. I hiked down the coast from Stinson Beach. Although I didn't find the hot springs, I did find a colony of naturalists sunbathing on a secluded beach. For the first time ever I had seen a group of naturalists.

I thought I might be returning to the innocence in Eden, in that secluded cove. I was sort of right. There was no shame on that beach. However, it wasn’t quite a return to Eden. A gaggle of fully clothed migrant workers was ogling the Frisbee football team, drinking Budweiser, enjoying the cheap thrills.

Eventually, however, I ran into a ranger who was taking care of the cabins at the base of the nearby Panoramic trail.

He said I should walk along the beach to the north. That’s where we would smell rotten eggs and find buckets for scooping out sand. Sure enough, we could smell the sulfur springs bubbling up through the sand and some buckets were nearby amongst the rocks.

I checked the Internet for the next new moon, and found the time where the tide was below sea level.

We took a shortcut down a treacherous rocky path. The locals there and it quickly became apparent this wasn’t an adventure for the prudish. Everyone in the pools was sky clad. About 14 of them were packed tightly into a small pool, right over the hottest spot.

While I waited for a turn, my companion and I tried to relax in a second pool. It was warm enough, but the ocean waves kept splashing in.

Sunset green flash, Image Source: mikebairdWe were enjoying the setting sun when one of the locals said, “Did you see that green flash? That’s extremely rare!” He tried to explain it, but all I ended up understanding was that the moment was that more special.

Then, somebody got out of the hot pool. I slid in and continued enjoying this moment of wild freedom. I roasted slowly in the hot water as the evening sky grew darker and stars started coming out. The diamond of Venus popped out on a carpet of sapphire. The moment was spectacularly edenesque.

My quest had been completed, and my tenacity was rewarded with the treasure of a moment no money could buy.

Donovan Rittenbach is the Web Manager for the California Academy of Sciences. He has a Master’s Degree in Multimedia, and 12 years of web & multimedia industry experience.